Bharat Rakshak

muraliravi

I read this story in Bloomberg Businessweek issue while waiting in the doctors office. Micromax Phones Eat into Nokia's Indian share Pretty interesting stuff. But does Micromax actually design its own phones or are these just relabelled imports from China ? I think they do manufacture 40-50% of the...

muraliravi

Vaghela and Advani were the 2 people on the rath when ram janambhoomi yatra started from Somnath. Vaghela was in BJP until the mid 90's.

muraliravi

Bingo, prefab construction has reduced construction time sharply. Even residents wont have so much pain as most of Varanasi would like better infrastructure as their livelihood depends on tourism and being a trade hub of eastern UP. Many people will get jobs and they will welcome it. Modi is going ...

muraliravi

Team Modi proposes 60 flyovers to decongest Varanasi http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/Team-Modi-proposes-60-flyovers-to-decongest-Varanasi/articleshow/35359167.cms How much time do you think this could take? Shamlee tai, Gadkari built 55-60 flyovers in Mumbai wi...

muraliravi

harbans wrote:My predictions vs actual scores statewise LS 2014:

Wow, pretty good accuracy. Nice job

muraliravi

I am sure Modi is smart enough to do an intelligence check (background screen) on anyone he plans to take into the top 4 portfolios (home/defence/External affairs/Finance). So sushma auntee will never get entry.

muraliravi

I was thinking priority is those states that are slated for state elections and Delhi. Second tier is border states like Punjab, West Bengal and J&K from security aspect. That means Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and most likely Delhi (maybe even Bihar). I can take up Haryana, Delhi and Jhark...

muraliravi

India TV is the future channel for right wingers

muraliravi

So Indian Express reports that Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav talked after the resignation. It appears that they could form an alliance to keep BJP out. This means ISI & KSA have told them to make up and not lose Bihar which is a frontline state for Ind Muj recruits and a conduit via Nepal. The ne...

muraliravi

In UP, mayawati's vote bank is safe. Its just that her and mulayam's vote bank calculations work with a 50% turnout (2009 was 47% turnout), but those get thrown into dustbin with 58.29% turnout which we got in 2014. It is that extra 11% vote which went entirely to modi which made all the difference...

muraliravi

Murali ji, several constituencies like Rampur for instance i observe BJP wins by about 30K votes, INC-SP-BSP poll in lakhs with AAP in few tens of thousands. If one of SP or INC was not fighting BJP would be down by a dozen or more seats. The IM vote has split. Also yes i do agree the Dalit vote ha...

muraliravi

Looking at the results particularly in UP, Amit Shah gives all the sham reasons to the media on how he won UP. Put simply he played BSP-AAP-INC-SP to cutting the Muslim votes in every constituency while consolidating the Hindu vote through massive Modi rallies, soft Hindutva, and planks of good gov...

muraliravi

amid the celebrations, the creeping islamisation of Assam should not be ignored. the AUDF under Badruddin Ajmal has captured the entire Western Assam (Dhubri and Barpeta seats) and the extreme south near tripura - Karimganj Silchar which used to be a steady BJP seat is also lost to the Congress. no...

muraliravi

The biggest joker in terms of Andhra is the politicsparty fellow.

He kept yelling for 2 years non stop that Jagan will win all 25 seats in Seemandhra and the 175 Assembly seats.

The guys other numbers were spot on this time, but i knew he was deliberately fudging Andhra figures

muraliravi

J&K BJP vote share 33% (highest among all parties)

J&K hindu pop is 33%

muraliravi

I guess fordiwal has managed to save his deposit. Boy, i hate to see 4 seats for AAP. BJP needs to ensure a open rebellion in AAP within a week.

muraliravi

Niran Sir,

I sincerely apologize for calling your numbers wishful. But i am glad to be wrong. Awesome day

muraliravi

AjayKK wrote:India Tv's coverage beats the rest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrwC8d_m0A4

India TV is the future right wing channel of India.

muraliravi

Harbans ji, BJP is not winning a single muslims majority seat in UP, they are winning seats which have less than 40% muslim pop due to hindu consolidation. MUSLIMS HAVE NOT VOTED FOR BJP. The sooner BJP realizes this, the better it is. They have won a couple of muslim dominated seats because sickula...

muraliravi

Raj wrote:Rajasthan CM Raje: Credits Namo for the victory.

and says jai mata di

muraliravi

anishns wrote:MJ Akbar rightly says without minority support BJP would not have completed a clean sweep in UP/Bihar

He is peddling BS, not more than 8% muslims would have voted for BJP

muraliravi

I happily accept that all my predictions have gone for a toss and I am really happy that I am a bad psephologist

muraliravi

pappu losing, BJP will get 272 on its own

muraliravi

Chanakya or NDTV or other surveys, I don't believe in accuracy of surveys or "Exit" polls as there is no unbiased scientific method to them. My statement was referring general scenarios where YCP is leading and not to "accept or deny" any surveys. Fraud reference is because of r...

muraliravi

Yep. Looks like 7% of Congress/Other MP voters switched to Jagan (5%) and TDP (1%) in assembly. Still there is only 1% different. I am hoping statistical error/margin give us better result of Naidu 90 and Jagan - 80 Recent results don't corroborate the numbers. YCP is leading in only 2-3 districts....

muraliravi

The eastern board- Assam, West Bengal, Orissa, TG, Seemandhra, Tamil Nadu all present great opportunities for BJP to grow

In the rest of India, they need to make sure that they form state governments in MH, Haryana, UP & Bihar

muraliravi

sivab wrote:
muraliravi wrote:BJP will get 272+ on their own.
Are you changing your estimate of 190 now?

No sir, my prediction stays. I am just telling you what these surveys could mean. I will be happy to be wrong

muraliravi

Anantha wrote:Prassana Vishy has said CSDS poll is the most accurate (282 seats)

I second that and will add a caveat. CSDS gets direction right, they generally lowball the intensity. Chanakya gets both right. So in a way if you look at csds and chanakya together, BJP will get 272+ on their own.

muraliravi

ramana wrote:AK Anthony the worst Defence minister strikes again. The guy should hang from his mundu.
What a disgrace to the position.

Ramana Sir,

I am not supporting the decision, but didn't the ABV govt do the same in 2004 when they appointed Arun Prakash as Navy Chief 3 days before demitting office?

muraliravi

http://www.epw.in/election-specials/status-opinion-polls.html what is your take on the corrections to apply? There are 3 ways to look at it, 1. Surveys generally overestimate BJP, which will lead to the conclusion that BJP will end up at 190 and NDA at 230, instead of the 235 for BJP and 280 for ND...

muraliravi

Guys, chill

Let the results be out first. I am stealing Dilbu's Phrase

Namo will Lose Onlee

muraliravi

Raja wrote:NDTV claimed that their sample size of > 100K. Not bad.

Did they say telephonic or field?

muraliravi

So more than one poll is giving bjp 40% in UP. If they really get 40%, no way they will get just 56, they will easily hit early 60's. With just 35% they got 58/85 in undivided UP.

muraliravi

My understanding is 5forty3 is giving Amethi to BJP while Chanakya to Congress, is this right? You have me worried. 5forty3 also gave Amritsar to AJ win a handsome margin. All channels are saying that it is a close fight. I am not sure why his model is going wrong in both Amethi and Amritsar and th...

muraliravi

UP exit poll - CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti final projections : http://cf.datawrapper.de/WF2rj/2/?fs=1 Is it just me who thinks that at 39% vote CSDS projection of 45-53 seats makes no sense. 39% is way higher than even the 1998 vote share of 35.3% when they got 54 of the 80, (actually 58 of the 85 in undi...

muraliravi

^^^ to add to the above. 1. Passing the law does not need a constitutional amendment 2. Regional parties who are dominant in their state have no reason to worry, as this change will not affect them. The parties that will be most affected are those who win with 20-30% vote in their state (read sp, bs...

muraliravi

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

cross-posted the above.

Thanks Rajesh ji.

muraliravi

If BJP does indeed win this time, the victory will be short lived if they dont change the electoral system. They need to get rid off this first past the post system, introduce run off elections at a seat level, complete elections in at best 2 days to remove voter fatigue and conduct run off's in sea...

muraliravi

yaar, abhi result aana baaki hai. Lets wait. Congress waale itne bade moorkh nahi hai. They may have something up their sleeves. We may see BJP in UP at 35 and in Bihar at 15. So some salami slicing here and there may bring them down below 200. Lets not jump now.

muraliravi

VikasRaina wrote:Actually NaMo should cut down on few of these dead wood ministries like Minority Affairs, Shipping ministry, Urban development etc.

Amit Shah will have 2 portfolios, Home Minister and Minister for minority affairs (he is a jain btw)

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