Eastern Europe/Ukraine

[Austin]

@Austin-ji,
There was a long article a few years back that US could afford to do what it wanted as far as Russia was concerned, because Russia had no good options to retaliate against the US and EU. The idea was that, while the Russian economic interests are intertwined with Europe, the US should go as far as possible in undermining Russian security interests. There were calls for arming the Ingush, Dagestanis, Chechens, all the other assorted Islamists of Caspian-Caucasian region. Will try to find and post that article.

Ofcourse US can do some things but there is a limit to it as Russia is an Existential Threat to US if push comes to shove.

They had supported terrorist of Chechnia in the 90's , infact there are known cases of CIA officer working for Russia getting caught by CI and reveling its Chechnia involvement.

But today US is economically much weaker and EU is no good ..........China has emerged as major economic power hub and is tacitly supporting Russia ......India too is neutral in the game.

Not to mentioned the other hotspots US is busy with .......Its not the 90's where US is the sole superpower and remains unchallenged.

[prahaar]

My question is - will NATO fracture? NATO has no purpose today, as far as Europe is concerned. Will Germany, and others exit the NATO since it has served its purpose? Or is the German elite simply too US-pasand?

NATO fracture is unlikely to happen unless US forces Ukraine-Nazis to do something unthinkable and consequently Germany is forced to cut the chord with Ukraine. Most EU countries are so deficient in their own defense hardware that they are under the grips of a 21st century Subsidiary-Alliance-System. With all the high-tech infrastructure and demographic collapse, EU is not in a position to take on Russia. They love their 6 week summer holidays and heavy pension schemes more than they love East-Ukrainians.

[Austin]

Will Keive Agree ?

Donetsk, Lugansk Republics ready to remain part of Ukraine, seek special status

At talks in the Belarusian capital, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics have urged Kiev to acknowledge their autonomy within Ukraine, but said they wish to remain an integral part of the country.

LNR and DNR representatives urged the Ukrainian government to end their military operation in the country’s east so that parliamentary and local elections can take place freely.

They also suggest creating a commission to develop an agreement on the peaceful resolution of the conflict and the reconstruction of the Donetsk Region.

The republics also propose that Kiev agree to a special law enforcement mode, and the appointment of prosecutors and judges by the authorities of the republics.

[UlanBatori]

Vodka flows @ Luhansk Airport
Wonder how ONE tank can shell multiple airfields?

[Singha]

Putin is playing bad cop today suggested eastern ukr be given statehood in a televised address.

[UlanBatori]

Comrade Vlad's tactics are something to observe very carefully. It is apparent from the reaction of the Freedom Fighters that they have received substantial "inspiration". Equally, the UkBapZi conscripts are running in panic, talking about "columns of tanks", accompanied by the sound of tank shells zooming by,

Yet, the OSCE (whatever that is), and others are unable to find any real evidence of Russian presence in East Ukraine. The UkBapZis are accused of "Crying Wolf" once too many times, and said to have lost credibility, even in the western In-Bedded media.

The part about 'volunteers' coming in even from western Oirope, plus Serbia to help the Freedom Fighters appears to be true, so why disbelieve the claim that the Russians there are "on vacation"?

At the same time, the pronouncements coming from Moscow are utterly peaceful as in

Hu? ME? WHY would I intervene in Ukrainian internal affairs?

but giving advice to the beleagured, outgunned, encircled "rebels" to be gracious and allow their (victorious) enemies to disarm, surrender and walk to Russia for refuge. This is like asking Dhoni's team not to hit too many sixers in case the poor HerMajesty's ***King Bowlers get depressed.

There are fleeting glimpses of the tail-lights of Russian armored cars cruising inside Ukraine. The occasional Russian captured "accidentally walking across the border".

And still, Mariupol is "dug in", waiting for The Invasion, Luhansk has tanks about to overrun the UkBapZi-held airfield...

And Putin "accidentally" mentions Statehood for East Ukraine, then the Freedom Fighters proclaim that all they are asking is to be autonomous partners inside Ukraine.

Do u get the feeling that Comrade Vlad can see geography as well as I can, and is building up a full '5th Column' that will one day rise up all over the east and be at the gates of Kiev? My point is that all this subterfuge is quite needless if all he was planning to do was protect a few towns in easternmost East Ukraine. Something needs a lot more preparation than that.

It is apparent that once there is a ceasefire leaving the UkBapZis in control of Kiev, NATO will come in to ensure that they can invade East Ukraine again. Surely Putin does not think that Kiev will honor any peace agreement that they sign? Isn't that demonstrated already?

Now he seems quite confident that Kiev cannot accept the demand for autonomy, setting the stage for the liberation of Kiev.

Absolutely brilliant coordination of military, foreign affairs and propaganda strategies.

[Philip]

CNN/BBC reports that the UKR forces are desperate and face certain defeat in Mariupol and are in general retreat,with the DPR forces turning the tide of battle. More UKR soldiers have moved across the border to Russia not wanting to be cannon fodder! The Russians are still advocating a ceasefire and a political settlement,except that now it is for an independent east not just autonomy,"statehood" as Pres.Putin says! Sadly Kiev and the Euro-peons are losing the plot.The US lost it aeons ago.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/s ... re-ukraine

Russian foreign minister calls for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine
Lavrov says talks should focus on a truce and Ukraine forces must retreat from positions where they can harm civilians

Shaun Walker in Mariupol, Dan Roberts in Washington and agencies
theguardian.com, Monday 1 September 2014 10.23 BST
Jump to comments (1221)


Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov attends a meeting with students in Moscow. Photograph: Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said negotiations taking place in Minsk to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine should seek an immediate ceasefire.

Lavrov added that Ukrainian forces must pull back from positions from which they can hit civilians.

"They must leave positions from which they can harm the civilian population," Lavrov told students in Moscow on Monday. "I very much count on today's negotiations being devoted above all to the task of agreeing an immediate ceasefire, without conditions."

The Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, accused Moscow of "direct and open" aggression against his country, as forces battled a Russian tank battalion for a vital airport in Luhansk on Monday, and in Ilovaysk, near the east's main city of Donetsk, several hundred Ukrainian forces remained trapped within an encirclement by Russia-backed separatists.

In Mariupol, two Ukrainian seamen were reported missing after an attack by separatist rebel artillery on a patrol boat in the Asov Sea. Eight seamen had been rescued, a Ukrainian border guard official said on Monday.

The talks in the Belarusian capital will bring together representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) security forum and separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin has called on Kiev to enter discussions on "statehood" for the south-east regions of Ukraine a day after the EU gave Russia a week to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine or face further sanctions.

In excerpts of an interview with state television broadcast on Sunday evening, the Russian president said talks between Ukrainian authorities and separatist leaders in the east should begin immediately and be about "not just technical issues but on the political organisation of society and statehood in south-eastern Ukraine".

His spokesperson later said Putin had not meant the region should gain independence, but that dialogue should begin. Western leaders have accused Russia of fanning the flames of the insurgency in east Ukraine, and in recent weeks of providing direct military assistance, as the armed rebels suffered a number of losses to the Ukrainian army and appeared on the brink of defeat.

The EU said late on Saturday that if Russia did not reverse course in Ukraine within a week, a further round of sanctions would be imposed, but there is disagreement within the 28-member block about the effectiveness of sanctions and a fear that more serious measures would also harm European economies.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said the sanctions would build on existing measures against Russia. Senior diplomats confirmed the punitive measures were not so much new as a tightening of the restrictions imposed in July on Russian financial, energy and defence sectors. "It's about closing loopholes," said a diplomat. They warned, however, that it could be weeks before any new sanctions were applied, perhaps as late as October.

The Senate foreign relations committee chair and Obama administration loyalist, Robert Menendez, called for the US to arm the Ukrainian military.

Speaking in Kiev, he said: "This is a watershed moment. Thousands of Russian troops are here and are directly engaged in what is clearly an invasion. We should be providing the Ukrainians with the types of defensive weapons that will impose a cost upon Putin for further aggression."

Kiev has said it will not negotiate with the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, which it lists as terrorists. But in an apparent victory for Moscow, the separatists said they would be taking part in talks in Minsk this week with a delegation from Kiev.

Analysts have speculated that Putin does not want a Crimea-style annexation, which would be expensive and militarily difficult, but instead wants to create a "frozen conflict" that would give Moscow permanent leverage in Ukraine.

Since talks between Putin and Poroshenko in Minsk last Tuesday, the situation on the ground has changed, with rebel forces taking control of Novoazovsk in the far south-east of the country, which they are believed to have taken with help from Russian army soldiers and equipment. But the promised assault on the key port city of Mariupol has not materialised.

Many residents have been digging trenches on the outskirts of the city and preparing to defend it. Mariupol was under rebel control at the beginning of the uprising but was taken back by Kiev's forces in June and most of its residents have little appetite for further violence, although many remain sceptical about the Ukrainian government.

Kiev has said it will defend Mariupol from any rebel assault, though there is little sign of serious reinforcements with which to repel any attack. The majority of the forces appear to be from volunteer battalions.

Vadim, a commander in the Azov battalion, known for its far-right leanings, said on Sunday that it was imperative to defend the city because of its strategic importance. "If we lose Mariupol we will lose the war," said the 34-year-old, as he headed to a factory to transport concrete blocks to reinforce checkpoints.

Ukrainian forces said two coastguard vessels came under fire off the coast of Mariupol. Videos from the scene showed a plume of smoke rising from an object several miles offshore. It was unclear how the boats were attacked. People in the vicinity said they heard loud explosions but did not see or hear any aircraft, suggesting they may have been hit by missiles fired from land.

Russia has denied all accusations that its soldiers are active in eastern Ukraine, stating that a group of paratroopers captured inside the country had got lost and crossed "by accident", and all other Russians fighting in the region were volunteers or serving soldiers "on holiday".

The paratroopers were handed back to Russia over the weekend after what a Russian general, Alexei Ragozin, described as "very difficult" negotiations. He said it was unacceptable that the Ukrainians had detained the men, and noted that Russia had returned Ukrainian soldiers who had strayed over the border previously. The Ukrainian soldiers generally crossed the border to escape fighting, whereas Kiev accuses the Russians of coming to Ukraine to wage war.

The latest such group, comprising 63 fighters, was sent back to Ukraine in exchange for the captured paratroopers.

In interviews, the Russian paratroopers claimed they had not realised they were inside Ukraine until they came under fire. The claims that they crossed the border accidentally have been mocked by Kiev, and during the capture of Novoazovsk earlier in the week there were numerous sightings of "green men" – well-equipped soldiers wearing no insignia but immediately distinguishable from the irregular rebels. Nato said it believed at least 1,000 Russian soldiers were operating inside Ukraine.

Putin, however, has insisted that the conflict is an "internal Ukrainian" matter. His rhetoric in recent days has been bullish, comparing the Ukrainian army offensive in the east to the Nazi siege of Leningrad and reminding the west that Russia is a nuclear power and "it's better not to mess with us".

Oksana Grytsenko contributed to reporting

[Surya]

so little groups of polite green men inserted - stiffened the rebel spine

Mariupol needs to be taken and the land link to Crimea finished

if it was spetsnaz then they have really rejuvenated themselves at lease for the near abroad

[ShauryaT]

afaik Ilyushin is a russian concern while Antonov is pure play Ukraine down to its founder.

so Ukraine can certainly design and market original new designs, apart from servicing old ones. An32 next gen is possible. An70 design was sold to china. AN124T could be produced. they have two big concerns for the crown jewels Ivchenko-Progress-Lotarev and Motor-Sich.

All the antonov products use ukrainian made engines. they are way ahead of india in any form of aerospace/engine tech having under their belt decades of large scale design and production.

the one aspect which Russia is probably scared of is Motor Sich produces the VK2500(mi17) and the TV3-117(Kamov) and D136(Mi26)...they usually work with salyut-saturn so maybe parts are produced in both countries and someone does final assembly or final assembly is done in both places...no sure who has how much exposure on this.

we have a huge fleet of Mi17, and some Mi35 and Kamovs....would be interesting to know who services those engines and where. also, our an32 upg deal was going along swiftly at antonov plant before yellow matter hit fan there...no word on this lately.

It would be interesting to know which "part" of Ukraine has these plants that manufacture and who the designers are Russian or Ukrainian speaking?

[JE Menon]

ShauryaT, there is hardly anyone in Ukraine who does not speak Russian. Not much different than trying to differentiate between Belarussian and Russian... My own direct experience engaging with (normal) Ukrainians, west and east, is that they seem basically in "WTF?" mode... They can't really comprehend what's going on, and what it means.

On the other hand, one friend whatsapped me yesterday night saying the fighting has come to within 40 km of where her parents live in eastern Ukraine; and she is getting ready to go there from Kiev and nurse the wounded... I told her not to be thick, and do anything of the sort; shell shrapnel does not discriminate. To make matters worse, she is half-Russian/half-Ukrainian - i.e. father or mother from Russia, and the other Russian-speaker from Ukraine (so "Ukrainian"). It's a mess.

[Shreeman]

afaik Ilyushin is a russian concern while Antonov is pure play Ukraine down to its founder.

so Ukraine can certainly design and market original new designs, apart from servicing old ones. An32 next gen is possible. An70 design was sold to china. AN124T could be produced. they have two big concerns for the crown jewels Ivchenko-Progress-Lotarev and Motor-Sich.

All the antonov products use ukrainian made engines. they are way ahead of india in any form of aerospace/engine tech having under their belt decades of large scale design and production.

the one aspect which Russia is probably scared of is Motor Sich produces the VK2500(mi17) and the TV3-117(Kamov) and D136(Mi26)...they usually work with salyut-saturn so maybe parts are produced in both countries and someone does final assembly or final assembly is done in both places...no sure who has how much exposure on this.

we have a huge fleet of Mi17, and some Mi35 and Kamovs....would be interesting to know who services those engines and where. also, our an32 upg deal was going along swiftly at antonov plant before yellow matter hit fan there...no word on this lately.

GD,

Russia has no less than two options for any product including the Mi8/17.

Still, Motor Sich is a producer of reliable engines. Components and designs? Who knows. And Antonov still have left over design capabilities. The A400M equivalent they were hoping to produce tells the story on the production side. They are no brazil anymore. Two decades of state mismanagement has taken a toll.

There is no comparison with India (screwdriver engineering onlee), but one engine concern and a soviet design concern does not make a functioning MIC. Ukraine has made nothing for its land forces (take a look at the equipment showing up in the war) and navy is non existent. Note that naval engines/turbines/gear boxes/transmission shafts etc export has continued unabated during this time. But not one ship joined domestic forces nor an aircraft. May be a dozen tanks or so in T84 upgrades, rest of industrial activity went into exporting to bakistan.

Selling rail cars to carry methane from russia does not make ukraine an advanced economy and they have nothing to sell to the EU. EU is dumping food in the streets, so ukraine's bread basket status buys nothing. Poles are all for Ukraine only until they start flooding EU labor markets.

The entire Kargil toll was less than a thousand. The exodus from luhansk alone appears to have had several hundred casualties, not to mention many more aircraft and many times the armor being destroyed. This is with a free hand and open EU/US support. Ukranians are coming across worse than bakis in FATA. Hardly anything to be proud of.

And the begging bowl (grandmothers stitching sniper suits from leftover jute bags in every media piece) is out in full force worse than bakis demanding F16s against al-keeda. Surely not a functioning state.

The last lot of Indian AN32s should be out of there. Rest were to be HAL upgraded, that may take a hit though Kharkiv etc parts makers have not seen much disruption yet. The west was surprised Aleppo had no problems for well into the syrian conflict. How do you guess how deep/far Eukraine is willing to go and be or not be Al-Assad redux.

Zorya/Motor Sich/etc havent yet been impacted in a big way. But who will they sell to (chna?) and what will they make at the end of the conflict is unclear.

[Austin]

Singha , Russia has the technology for the engine and many of the engineering development are based in Russia ...specially the An series of aircraft.

But Ukraine owns the IP for these as they are design house so making these product would be like stealing or cloning what ever you call it.

Considering Ukraine had little respect for IP and sold technology/design of Zubur Landing Craft and Su-27K Naval variant to China , Russia wont mind responding in kind in current situation

[UlanBatori]

Where does one find out what is REALLY going on in Ukraine? UkBapZis are deluded, Russia is, well, Russia. CNN is garbage. British sites, even despite some freedom at Daily Telegraph and Guardian, are just anti-Russian. Al Jazeera ditto in this case because they don't like Russians either. Chinese are probably Japan and Australia are poodlized, not that they have any direct access, so they just parrot AP and Reuters. Germany is too involved to have credibility.

Is there a Turkish news site that is free and unbiased? They have a strong interest because any effort to cut off Russia's Black Sea access means war in Turkey. What about Bulgarians?

[KLNMurthy]

Can someone knowledgeable explain what this writer is asking the West to do, exactly? It sounds like propaganda code for something, a coyly-worded signal to those that are already masters of the cold-war vocabulary and grammar. For my part, I can't make out what the heck it actually means. Is it just a call to arms for a new Cold War, or something else?

JMT, so take it as you will. Also, this is just based on my understanding of Russia.

There are really two kinds of nationalists in Russia. There is the российские националисты (Russian state nationalists). This bunch see the identity of Russia in the Russian state. Everyone who lives in Russia and will speak Russian (learn Russian, if necessary) is a Russian. They are indifferent to ethnicities, native languages, etc. They just would like for their population to be loyal to the Russian state, and speak Russian to a passable extent. Some of them take it further, and are really славянские националисты (Slavic nationalists), who would like to unite all the Slavs under one aegis (that of Russia, of course). This was the thrust of Russia under the Tsars until the end of WW1. But lurking beneath the surface is a second kind of nationalism. These are the русские националисты (Russian ethnic nationalists). This bunch sees the identity of Russia in terms of ethnicity. This bunch is not interested in anything beyond the Russian border or actual ethnic Russians. This bunch was what ruled the roost and framed the policies in the 90s. In fact, the break up of the Soviet Union was as much a victory of the Russian ethnic nationalism as the victory of the US in bankrupting USSR, and the revolts of the minorities of former Soviet Union. The debacle of Afghanistan and the rise of the separatist minorities led to a widespread dejection that the non-ethnic Russians could not be trusted, and that Russia was better off without these undependable minorities. In fact, if you read the Russian press, there were a whole lot of articles peddling these views in the late 80s and early 90s. The funny thing is the two types of nationalists are not completely different people. It seems to be a side of all (or most) Russian nationalists - you will find this when you speak to Russian nationalists. Both sides exist in the same people, and based on circumstances and events, the one side or the other will rise to the fore. The same person will one day support a Greater Russia, and on another, when things are going bad, will support an ethnic Russian state.

From the Russian ethnic nationalists point of view, they would like for nothing more than to leave Ukraine to the Devil, and the Russian speakers of новороссия (Novorossiya - Eastern Ukraine, today) to shift for themselves. The problem for the ethnic nationalists is that very little of the actual population of Novorossiya is actually Russian in ethnic terms. There are a whole variety of ethnicities there. There are many Russian ethnic nationalists who even advocate expelling the Caucasians and giving them their own countries in the Caucasus-Caspian region, and some even take it to Tartarian republics in the Kazan and southern Urals.

From what I can read of the author, she is hinting that a defeat of the Russians in Ukraine will trigger another wave of xenophobia and ethnic nationalism, leading to the fall of Putin, and his replacement by a ethnic Russian nationalist leader, under whose influence the US can rip out more new countries of Russia and leave them open for plunder. In particular, breaking the Russian hold completely on the Caucasus is a long held dream of many American Russia-foreign policy thinkers. Brzezhinsky was one who had openly articulated these views in the early 80s. Russia must be broken up until she can no longer stand as a powerful country in her own right.

Thanks, these are new insights for me. To put it in our terms, then, the Russian ethnic nationalists are the equivalent of pakis, more or less(are they Yeltsinists or Gary Kasparovists?), while the Putinists are (again more or less) equivalent to good ol' Yindu Nationalists, or even global Indics (the trans-slavic unity wallahs). It would suit the West to work for the victory of the paki-Russians, then.

Nice to see patterns and formulas emerging. We can see if the West's strategy and tactics in the Russian theater (as it were) will help understand and predict the same for the Indic theater.

[RSoami]

OSCE is probably as close to anything neutral that one can come by. In this conflict or any other that involves Russia and Europe. They have men to monitor the situation on ground and maintaining peace is one of their prime objectives.
Putin was severely against OSCE when it blasted the lack of democracy and the kind of democracy in Russia. That was after his reelection. Over the course of time though he has toned down his opposition to OSCE though.

[KLNMurthy]

My question is - will NATO fracture? NATO has no purpose today, as far as Europe is concerned. Will Germany, and others exit the NATO since it has served its purpose? Or is the German elite simply too US-pasand?

@Austin-ji,
There was a long article a few years back that US could afford to do what it wanted as far as Russia was concerned, because Russia had no good options to retaliate against the US and EU. The idea was that, while the Russian economic interests are intertwined with Europe, the US should go as far as possible in undermining Russian security interests. There were calls for arming the Ingush, Dagestanis, Chechens, all the other assorted Islamists of Caspian-Caucasian region. Will try to find and post that article.

May be OT, but are there fissures in the West due to inept US handling of Russia? Correspondingly, are there potential fissures between Japan and the US due to Japan's lack of confidence in US's ability to handle China? Looks like sole US formula since Nixon-Kissinger has been to GUBO to China while constantly giving dhamki to Russia and trying to make Russia GUBO. If nothing else, that is a stupid rigid formula and will inevitably lead to US defeat because all that Russia and China have to do is to make some changes in their policies, knowing that US will never adapt its own strategy. In that case, countries with some capacity and brains (that is to say, having an economy and some historical experience in playing the supa-pawa game) like Germany and Japan will try to unhitch their wagons from the US.

OT but if this is the case, what should India's goals be in this light, and what are the options?

[KLNMurthy]

My question is - will NATO fracture? NATO has no purpose today, as far as Europe is concerned. Will Germany, and others exit the NATO since it has served its purpose? Or is the German elite simply too US-pasand?

NATO fracture is unlikely to happen unless US forces Ukraine-Nazis to do something unthinkable and consequently Germany is forced to cut the chord with Ukraine. Most EU countries are so deficient in their own defense hardware that they are under the grips of a 21st century Subsidiary-Alliance-System. With all the high-tech infrastructure and demographic collapse, EU is not in a position to take on Russia. They love their 6 week summer holidays and heavy pension schemes more than they love East-Ukrainians.

Maybe, but is it possible for anyone to contain the irrepressible pakiness of the UkBapZis? Or change the unbelievably irreparable thickness of the Americans? The butterfly will flutter its wings sooner or later, it seems to me. There is a Babi-yar waiting to happen.

"Taking on" the Russians is mostly the Americans' idea; once rid of the American leadership, the Euros could have some kind of entente with the Russians.

[Shreeman]

Where does one find out what is REALLY going on in Ukraine? UkBapZis are deluded, Russia is, well, Russia. CNN is garbage. British sites, even despite some freedom at Daily Telegraph and Guardian, are just anti-Russian. Al Jazeera ditto in this case because they don't like Russians either. Chinese are probably Japan and Australia are poodlized, not that they have any direct access, so they just parrot AP and Reuters. Germany is too involved to have credibility.

Is there a Turkish news site that is free and unbiased? They have a strong interest because any effort to cut off Russia's Black Sea access means war in Turkey. What about Bulgarians?

There isnt a good place. Those that can read russian can figure out some things via VK/facebook/twitter/youtube. For the rest of us, things are filtering down weeks late.

look, whos come out of hiding now.

[Philip]

The desperation of the Choco soldier and his "fruit and nuts" cronies in Kiev can be gauged from this absurd allegation.His "country" is rapidly melting in the heat of the DPR resistance and demoralised UKR forces who simply don't want to fight war with their own ethnic-Russian compatriots.

Meanwhile NATO plans to station shock troops,a "spearhead" in Russia's neighbourhood to counter any Russian "aggression".As if Russia will not itself deploy special Spetznaz troops,whatever in return! The Brits as usual,"punching well above their weight"!

Ukraine crisis: Nato readies a rapid-reaction spearhead force in response to Russian intervention - with sizeable British contingent
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 04984.html

Nato is to form a 4,000-strong spearhead force designed to go into action in 48 hours in response to Russian intervention in Ukraine. Stockpiles of military equipment will be stored at bases in Eastern Europe for the troops to use when they go into operation.

The mission, which is expected to have a sizeable British contingent, is due to be unveiled at the Nato summit in Wales later this week. It will include special forces, air, naval and intelligence detachments which will deploy alongside the soldiers of the host nation against an outside threat.

The Alliance has not named Russia as the threat against whom the measures are being taken and has stressed that it can be deployed anywhere in the world. But it will be working alongside the Readiness Action Plan which will have bases, it is believed, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania.

The deployment is certain to be seen as provocative by the Kremlin. Under the 1997 Founding Act, which was viewed as ending the Cold War, Nato pledged to Boris Yeltsin’s government that it would not have a permanent troop presence in any of the former Warsaw Pact states. Nato insists that the bases do not break the pact as they are not permanent, but they will be there “for as long as it takes”. A senior official stated: “We have been through this thoroughly, taken extensive legal advice, and this is not in breach of the Act. There will not be permanent presence in these bases, there will not, for example, be personnel stationed there with their families.”

The force is part of a raft of measures being taken by Nato to sharpen up its reaction since the Ukraine crisis began in February. Since then, Crimea has been annexed by Vladimir Putin’s government and separatist forces, with Russian backing, are engaged in an increasingly violent civil war in the east of the country.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato Secretary-General, said on Monday: “This is a time of multiple crises on several fronts. To the east, Russia is intervening overtly in Ukraine; to the south we see growing instability, with fragile states, the rise [of] extremism, and sectarian strife. These crises can erupt with little warning, move at great speed and they all affect our security in different ways.

READ MORE: Why do we stand by and watch Putin?
Nato is at a crossroads

“We will develop a spearhead within our response force. This will require reception facilities in Nato territory, pre-positioned equipment and supplies, command and control and logistics experts. So this force can travel light, but strike hard if needed.

Pro-Russian rebels prepare arms for an assault on Donetsk airport on Monday Pro-Russian rebels prepare arms for an assault on Donetsk airport on Monday (AP)

“…That also means more visible Nato presence in the east for as long as required, not because Nato wants to attack anyone, but because the dangers and the threats are more present and more visible and we’ll do what it takes to defend our allies.”

Poland, the Baltic States and Canada are calling for the repeal of the Founding Act, according to diplomatic sources, after accusing the Russians of sending regular troops, tanks and artillery into Ukraine. Kiev’s forces, after a series of successes in recent months, are now on the defensive, with separatist forces making gains in the south-east and seeking to force a corridor to Crimea.

http://rt.com/news/184324-russia-ukraine-nuclear-shock/
Russia outraged after Kiev accuses Moscow of nuclear attack threats
Published time: September 01, 2014

Following comments from Ukraine’s Defense Minister Valery Geletey of Moscow threatening with a nuclear attack on its neighbor, Moscow said it was shocked by the statement. Russia warned that such rhetoric only deepens the civil stand-off in Ukraine.

“Geletey’s calls to get ready for ‘tens of thousands’ of new victims in what he called ‘Great Patriotic War’ and what in fact is a new punitive operation in his own country are appalling. He only drags the Ukrainian people into a new round of the bloody civil stand-off,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Monday.

Earlier Geletey wrote in his Facebook that the operation “to cleanse Ukraine’s east from terrorists” was over. He, however, proceeded to accuse Russia of direct military involvement in the east that followed the rebels’ “defeat.”

“A big war has come to our home, a war Europe has not seen since WWII,” Geletey wrote alleging that Russia not only attempted to secure its position on the rebel-held territories, but also advance onto other regions.

He said that Moscow - through "unofficial channels" - has “repeatedly threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons” on Ukraine if Kiev continues to resist.

“It is hard to believe that such statements can come from a defense minister of a civilized state. Otherwise, it’s just not clear how tens of thousands of Ukrainian families could entrust this official with lives of their children, brothers and husbands, mobilized into the Ukrainian army to wage a fratricidal war in their own country,” Moscow said, adding that this was a “blatant” attempt on Geletey’s behalf to secure his own post.

[Surya]

nothng takes the cake like the way the UK behaves

Can the UK goad the other EU folks to block the russians out of SWIFT

the faster alternate systems sprout the better

meanwhile the black boxes of the MH 17 seem to have gone into a black hole

amazing

not a second of news time devoted to questioning why the black boxes are not yet decoded

[Philip]

We knew it! The seedy undercurrents of the UKR civil war.First the Euro-peon politicos urging on the Kiev facsist neo-Nazis,then the mercenaries and CIA advisers to Kiev,The USA Veep's son made a director of a UKR oil co.,more mercenaries fighting for the UKR in the east,NATO advisers (what are they doing in Mariupol?) helping the UKR military,and now,equally important as any energy deal MONSANTO to grow its GM crops in the EU "through the back door" in the vast fields of the Ukraine!

Monsanto in Ukraine: IMF loan for Ukraine may give GMO giant a backdoor into EU
Published time: August 30, 2014
http://rt.com/op-edge/183956-gmo-ukraine-monsanto-imf/

Ukraine’s bid for closer ties with the west could come at a cost. With the IMF set to loan the country $17 billion, the deal could also see GMO crops grown in some of the most fertile lands on the continent, warns Frederic Mousseau.

Very few, not least the Ukrainian population are aware of these details, but according to Mousseau, who is a Policy Director at The Oakland Institute, in return for the cash, Ukraine could very well become a test ground for GMO crops in Europe, something the rest of the European Union has been looking to prevent. RT caught up with the Frenchman, who voiced his concerns at what may lay ahead.

RT: When this $17 billion deal is approved by the IMF and the Ukrainian ban on GM crops is lifted, does that mean it is just a matter of time before Ukrainian farmers grow modified crops?

Frederic Mousseau: This is very likely because there is a lot of pressure from the bio-technological industry, such as Monsanto, to have these approved in Ukraine. It is also part of the EU Association Agreement, which has a particular article which calls for the expansion of bio-technology and GMOs in Ukraine.

RT: If it was one of the pre-conditions of the multi-billion dollar loan, do you think it is fair to say that Monsanto has considerable influence over the IMF and the World Bank and even dictates terms to them?

FM: We saw in 2013 that Monsanto invested $140 million in new seed plans in Ukraine. It is clearly the bread basket of Europe and it is a key target for a company like Monsanto, which sees this huge potential for production and this huge market. Europe has been quite resistant in allowing GMOs, but if they are successful in Ukraine then there might be a domino effect in Europe.

RT: Was it a coincidence or a pre-planned action back in December 2013, when the ban on GM goods was lifted in Ukraine, just weeks before the IMF was supposed to give that county a loan?

FM: It can’t be a coincidence because we have seen a very strong mobilization of the industry and the agro business in lobbying the government and the EU to have these changes in the legislation. Also we have seen this investment coming in prior to any adoption of GMOs. So clearly this pressure was there and to have such a clause in the EU Association Agreement means that the lobbyists in the industry must have been at work for months before that.

AFP Photo / Juliette Michel

RT: The president of the US-Ukraine Business Council has said that it is necessary to get the Ukrainian government out of the agriculture business and transform it into a private sector industry. Can we say that America has set its sights on the vast fields that could be a gold mine for agriculture?

FM: There are these seed businesses like Monsanto and pesticide companies, but there is also the land of Ukraine, which has so far been under the control of the Ukrainian government and has not been available for sale. There will be a big push to privatize this land and make it a valuable commodity, which can be acquired by foreign corporations. What we have seen in recent years is that even if the land could not be purchased, it has been leased on a massive scale. Already 1.6 million hectares have been acquired by foreign entities and it is very likely that if the reform programs continue, there will be more companies, more interest and they will be looking to strike deals for Ukrainian land.

RT: There is considerable anti-GMO sentiment around the world. If you take this into account, how beneficial would it be for Ukraine to rely on the US-based GMO crops industry?

FM: It comes as part of an agreement with the EU and we know that European citizens and farmers are against GMOs, but still we have a deal with the European Union, who have worked out a deal with Ukraine to expand the use of GMOs. It seems like it has been something that has been arranged by the lobbyists of corporations and the civil servants within the European Commission. We have seen all over the world that this is not beneficial for farmers, it is not beneficial to citizens. It is just in the interest of the corporations who are taking over control of seeds used by farmers around the world. The food that is produced does not become better or cheaper.

RT: How harmful potentially do you think growing GMO crops could be for those rich fertile Ukrainian soils?

FM: We have seen in the US, where GMO crops have been cultivated for a couple of decades now. We have concerns about the quality of soil because the use of GMOs comes with a high level of the use of fertilizers and this destroys a lot of the organic materials in the soils. There is also a very high risk of contamination for those farmers who choose not to use GMOs and we have seen this very clearly in North America where there has been a lot of contamination.

Sadly,"common sense is not that common".

http://rt.com/news/
Putin: I hope common sense prevails in ‘war of sanctions’
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he hopes Russia and the west can return to normal cooperation from the current mutually damaging “war of sanctions,” as Europe ponders whether it should go further in penalizing Moscow.

Donetsk, Lugansk Republics urge Kiev to recognize their ‘special status’
At talks in Minsk, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics have urged Kiev to acknowledge their “special status.” If their demands are met, they will not lay claim to other parts of Ukraine, the rebel republics said.

[Philip]

The war going very badly for the Choco soldier and his fascist cohorts.Pres.Putin is impervious to Western sanctions blackmail,O'Bumbler and Ca-Moron have shot their bolts,whilst Frau Merkel watches the approaching winter with trepidation.Whether the tank battallion is "Russian",or Russian volunteers is a moot Q,as the UKR forces are themselves heavily dependent upon Western mil advisers,such as NATO gents in Kiev and Mariupol,and a horde of fascist Right Sector thugs ,plus Western military "contractors" (contract killers).The asinine shelling of Luhansk,Donetsk,Slavyansk,etc.,killing hundreds of innocent civilians appeared to be the last straw for the Russians,who have upped the military ante sending the UKR menagerie into headlong retreat with hundreds,if not thousands encircled ,many captured as this report quoting UKR officials says.

'Russian tank battalion' helps rebels make gains in east Ukraine, Kiev claims
Ukraine says Moscow is providing direct military support to rebels as army and volunteer battalions report heavy casualties

Shaun Walker in Mariupol
The Guardian, Monday 1 September 2014
The wreckege of a Ukrainian armoured personel carrier at an abandoned checkpoint south of Donetsk. Photograph: Francisco Leong/AFP/Getty Images

Pro-Russia rebels are making decisive gains against Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, a turning of tides on the battlefield that Kiev says is due to Moscow providing direct military support.

The Ukrainians suffered fresh losses on Monday, abandoning the airport in the key city of Luhansk after it came under attack by what a Ukrainian military spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, claimed was "a Russian tank battalion".

There were also reports of fighting at Donetsk airport, while the Ukrainian army and volunteer battalions reported heavy casualties in recent days as they attempt to retreat from encirclement in the town of Ilovaysk.

The fighting on the ground overshadowed tentative efforts to bring the adversaries to the table in Minsk, where rebels reportedly indicated that they might be prepared to forswear outright separation from Ukraine in return for the largest measure of autonomy and self-determination.

The rebels have previously declared themselves independent statelets, but Russian agencies reported on Monday that they were putting forward a range of demands on regional self-determination and Russian language status in return for which they would be willing to discuss "the preservation of the united economic, cultural and political space of Ukraine".

Kiev is unlikely to give in to demands from the rebel leaders but the change of tone shows that having boosted the rebels militarily, Moscow may be looking for a compromise solution that still gives it sway over swaths of Ukraine. Even if the sides did agree, it is unclear whether all the units fighting on both sides would accept a compromise.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that talks should begin on statehood for south-eastern regions, but his spokesman later clarified that Putin was apparently only talking about increased status within Ukraine. Putin again called for an immediate ceasefire.

The separatists are negotiating from a position of relative strength after recent fighting. Ukrainian forces have had the upper hand for much of the summer. But a rebel counterattack has generated fierce fighting around Luhansk and Donetsk and opened up another conflict front in the far south-east close to Mariupol.

The scale of the turnaround was becoming clear on Monday. Vladimir Ruban, a former Ukrainian officer in charge of negotiations on prisoner exchanges, said that 680 Ukrainian fighters had been captured in east Ukraine, with 80% of them taken in the area around Ilovaysk in recent days, but some have been able to break through the siege and escape. There are no reliable figures on the numbers who died.

Ukraine's defence minister, Valeriy Heletey, said that Kiev's forces would have won a military victory in the east by early October if Moscow had not stepped in to increase support for the rebels, using regular Russian army units for the first time.

"Our armed forces were defeating the bands of Russian mercenaries, and destroyed their spies and special agents. This is why the Kremlin was forced to move to a full-scale invasion with its regular army," he said.

Russia has denied its forces are in Ukraine, but western powers believe more than 1,000 Russian troops are operating in the east, along with scores of military vehicles.

The British prime minister, David Cameron, said on Monday that the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine was "unjustified and unacceptable". EU leaders at the weekend gave Russia a week to change course in Ukraine or face further sanctions.

In Mariupol, a major port city on Ukraine's southern coast, schools opened for the first day of the new term on Monday, as the city braced for a potential assault by rebel forces. Last week rebels, apparently aided by soldiers who appeared to be from the Russian army, seized the town of Novoazovsk further along the coast. Pro-Kiev residents have been digging trenches on the outskirts of town and promise to defend the city.

On Monday, armed rebels were checking cars in Olenivka, the first town on the road from Donetsk to Mariupol, after Ukrainian troops left the town overnight. In Volnovakha, the next big town on the road, there were neither rebels nor the Ukrainian army but the local police had removed the Ukrainian flag from its building as a precaution.

"Do you think we can resist armed people from the Donetsk People's Republic?" asked Dmytro, a local police officer, showing he and his colleagues had no guns in their possession.

After months of clashes, many locals are weary and suspicious of both sides of the conflict and simply long for a normal life again.

"I don't care if we are part of Russia, part of Ukraine or part of Mars," said Irina Filatova, as she took her daughters to school in Mariupol. "The main thing is that we can live in peace and all of this can finish."

In the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, the vast majority of schools did not open due to the chaotic situation, with regular shelling and shortages of water and electricity having created a humanitarian crisis in recent weeks.

A report released by Human Rights Watch on Monday said that the shelling of residential areas in Luhansk had resulted in over 300 civilian casualties since May. Both sides have Grad missiles and other heavy artillery, but the Ukrainians have come under particular scrutiny for their use of inaccurate artillery in builtup areas.

Additional reporting by Oksana Grytsenko in Volnovakha

[Austin]

CNN Balancing ACT ? ( Check it )

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/v ... f.cnn.html

[Singha]

looking at map luhansk and donetsk are almost right on the russian border. if thats all the rebels hold at present their republic is very small, way smaller than crimea.

they have a long way to push to the dnieper if they want entire east ukraine...it is 250km from donetsk to dnepropetrovsk on the dnieper

it takes a lot of manpower and resources to hold such a huge piece of territory .... they need divisions of troops not batallions. in the absence of pop density, mobile forces with good recon can roam around and wreak havoc at night. the roads in TV pix look very deserted.

[Deans]

looking at map luhansk and donetsk are almost right on the russian border. if thats all the rebels hold at present their republic is very small, way smaller than crimea.

they have a long way to push to the dnieper if they want entire east ukraine...it is 250km from donetsk to dnepropetrovsk on the dnieper

it takes a lot of manpower and resources to hold such a huge piece of territory .... they need divisions of troops not batallions. in the absence of pop density, mobile forces with good recon can roam around and wreak havoc at night. the roads in TV pix look very deserted.

The Russian media (I'm not based in Russia, but understand enough of the language to follow the news headlines - which I do, since Western media has an anti-Russia bias) does have helpful maps, updated almost daily, that explain the situation. I've attached the latest situation map.
Blue are the Ukranian forces/ militias. Red are the Seps. Red crossed circles are separatist artillery strikes and blue are Ukrainian.
Basically:

http://a-news.info/situaciya-na-ukraine ... eniya.html

1. The Ukranians expected an easy victory and a quick liberation of Donetsk/Lugansk but seem to have been lured into a trap deep inside Separatist territory. The blue pockets are where their forces have been cut off from their supplies and encircled.

2. Both cities are firmly in separatist control. For the first half of Aug, Ukrainians were announcing that their fall was imminent.
Russians are calling it Chocolate soldier's Stalingrad moment.

3. Separatists have gone on a counter offensive towards the port of Mariupol (red arrows at the bottom of the map) and towards the West, seizing the previously Ukrainian held town of Gorlovka and threatening to cut the highway to the city of Slavyansk (top left of the Map), which is the Ukrainian supply hub. Given that this offensive has originated far from the Russian border, it is unlikely to be the result of direct Russian army intervention. That might be more likely in the case of the thrust towards Mariupol.

4. The soldiers in the small blue pocket to the South of the map (near the caption box) were allowed to cross over to Russia to
surrender. The other pockets are slowly being reduced.

In this scenario, Ukrainians are crying foul and claim to be attacked by entire Russian armored divisions.

[pankajs]

http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/201 ... d-war-war/

Jaw jaw and war war

Pro-Russia separatists at talks with representatives from Moscow and the OSCE in Minsk said they would be prepared to stay part of Ukraine if they were granted “special status”, which is unlikely to be acceptable to Kiev.

The talks will continue later in the week and come as the Ukrainian military faced a run of reverses on the battlefield which Kiev says have been engineered by the intervention of at least 1,600 Russian combat troops.

In the latest in a string of setbacks, Ukraine’s military said it had pulled back from defending a vital airport near the city of Luhansk, where troops had been battling a Russian tank battalion. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of “direct and undisguised aggression” which he said had radically changed the battlefield balance. Moscow denies it is involved.

[pankajs]

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-put ... 61609.html

Putin Reportedly Tells EU: 'If I Want, I Can Take Kyiv In Two Weeks'

The Italian newspaper "La Repubblica" reported on September 1 that Putin told outgoing European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, "If I want, I can take Kyiv in two weeks."

The paper said Putin made the comment during a phone call with Barroso, who relayed it to leaders at an EU summit on August 30.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... aders.html
I can take Kiev in two weeks, Vladimir Putin warns European leaders

The EU’s new head of foreign policy, Federica Mogherini, also warned there was no military solution to what is now Europe’s biggest crisis in decades.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary general of the alliance, said Nato faced multiple crises on its southern and eastern borders that could erupt at any time.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... chief.html
Military option on Ukraine 'does not exist', says new EU chief

The prospect of Europe going to war to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression "simply does not exist", she insisted.

As Italian foreign minister Ms Mogherini, who replaces Britain's Catherine Ashton, had been accused by some European countries, notably Poland and the Baltic states, of being too placatory towards Moscow.

East European countries had expressed concerns that Italy's reliance on Russian energy supplies would result in Ms Mogherini being too soft on the Putin regime.

[Deans]

A month ago, the maps showed a very different picture. In the attached link, the first 2 maps are from Ukranian sources - they
show a master plan to `liberate' separatist held cities and push the sep forces into (Red) pockets.
The bottom map is the situation on 28th July. Lot of blue arrows (Ukrainian advances) and hardly any Red.
The map of the Battle of Stalingrad probably looked as rosy to Hitler, a month before the Red army trap was sprung.

http://news.bigmir.net/ukraine/833776-K ... a-28-iulya

[pankajs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29026623

Russia 'to alter military doctrine towards Nato'

Mr Popov, deputy secretary of Russia's National Security Council, told Russia's RIA news agency that Nato was "aggravating tensions with Russia".

He said "the military infrastructure of Nato member states" was "getting closer to [Russian] borders, including via enlargement", describing it as one of the key "external threats" to Russia.

There were no details on how the doctrine might change.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html
Russia’s gains cloud Obama’s assurances to Baltics

WASHINGTON — For the second time this year, President Barack Obama will travel to Russia’s backyard to assure nervous nations of his ironclad commitment to their security. But his objectives will be clouded by the West’s inability to halt the Russian aggression in Ukraine that has stoked fears in other former Soviet republics.

...
Eugene Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence officer for Russia, said the inability of the U.S. and Europe to stop Putin so far is compounding fears in the countries near Russia’s borders.

“They see Western responses as insufficient, which adds to their concerns,” said Rumer, who now runs the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

[Deans]

Map 3 - And this is how things evolved in August - this link has the map in English.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RRMzIEwOCWk/U ... 2B8-26.png

1. A second (and bigger) pocket of Ukranians was formed south of Donetsk. In this map, the new pocket is in the the
white coloured region south of Donetsk, which is shown coloured Pink (Rebel held) in my first post ( map of 01 Sept).
This new pocket was a Ukrainian force that rushed in to aid a breakout from the older pocket (blue pocket south East
of Donetsk), neglected their flank and were themselves encircled.

You will see that the original pocket contains the trapped 30 & 28 brigade and 2 battalions. In this map, there are 2 battalion
sized units which were joined by other units - mostly bands of militia, before the trap was sprung, by a separatist force
advancing South East from Elenaovka (in this map, they are shown as moving South West).

2. The pocket South of Lugansk was originally a trapped division sized unit, which has from Mid Aug onwards been reduced
to smaller pockets.

3. A separatist thrust to the north on 24th Aug - towards Sebernaya Lisichansk, was successful and the town is
believed to have fallen to the separatists. This has opened up a new axis for a possible separatist advance towards Kharkov,
resulting in Ukrainian forces having to be diverted to defend from that threat.

[Singha]

there is still a long way to go to reach the Dnieper easily 200km...thats about the only clear line of demarcation or watershed I can see to separate the two sides. else it will be endless partisan/mobile battle.
Rus could rub some salt in the wound by arranging a pincer amphib landing at various points on the coast between crimea and novoazovsk just as western navies sped the the stormtroopers from benghazi to tripoli by ship. news of multiple batallion sized forces landing on the coast and seizing the coast highways and cutting railways will spread a wave of panic on the eastern front.....Ukr army will then either have to commit across the dnieper and head south or pull back their maidan militias from the war in the east to avoid another wide encirclement.

this is 'deep battle' on a cottage industry scale perhaps..something the old t72+btr+SP gun divisions were supposed to do in western europe.

[Singha]

http://www.guidetorussia.com/images/tra ... kraine.jpg

railway map of ukraine in the above link . imo if the rebels can take hold of Zaporizhnya on the dnieper they can roll up all the territory bounded by the dnieper in the west, the sea of azoz in the south and russia in the east around 25 % of the country and turn their gaze to the next big prize - Kharkov

unknown ppl have sunk a Ukr patrol boat in the azoz sea it is alleged.

Kursk can be seen a bit north of kharkov across the rus border. if ever the bear comes across to paw some meat off the bone, it will be from the kursk-belgorod axis a direct javelin to the capital kiev.

[Deans]

http://www.guidetorussia.com/images/tra ... kraine.jpg

unknown ppl have sunk a Ukr patrol boat in the azoz sea it is alleged.

Ukrainians have admitted the loss of its patrol boat - a second was reportedly damaged. They were possibly there to prevent
the kind of seaborne landing Singha mentioned. The boat was hit by shore based artillery. Considering that the boats
were 3 miles from shore and capable of high speeds, it would take an incompetent crew to let the boat be hit by rebel artillery.

[Philip]

Put it in Putin! He da man of the moment.

Latest intl. media news indicates that the UKR forces are in shambles,have suffered massive losses and are in retreat or surrounded.The Choco soldier melting in the heat is desperate for Western intervention to save his bacon,but which Western leader is willing to slug it out with Putin,who has issued his own warning to NATO that Russia will revise its strategy towards that entity.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... -ukraine[b]
While Nato swills champagne, it’s Putin who calls the shots[/b]
This week’s lavish Nato summit won’t change the fact that it has been outmanoeuvred and humiliated in Ukraine by a puffed-up Putin.

This week’s absurdly lavish Nato summit in Wales could not be worse timed. It will be a public display of the impotence of what preens itself as the world’s most powerful alliance. Vladimir Putin, its historic foe, has been allowed to engineer its humiliation. He lies, he bullies, he invades, he shrugs off sanctions. He knows Nato will not go to war. He can therefore gain a buffer zone of Russian interest along his borders with added domestic glory.

In the matter of detail, Putin is right. The Russian-speaking area of east Ukraine should have been granted internal autonomy after the coup that toppled the corrupt but elected Kiev regime backed by the east. The message is spreading across an ever-more integrated Europe, that dissident provinces are calmed only through greater self-government. Look at the Kosovans, the Basques, the Scots.

It is currently impossible to hear a speech or open a newspaper in which defence experts do not beat their breasts, bang their drums and demand “the west stand firm ... show resolve ... teach Russia a lesson ... show Putin who is boss.” They call for more economic sanctions – which have never seemed more counterproductive. They demand backing for Ukraine, aid for Kiev, support for other border states, more spearhead battalions and seemingly endless rapid reaction forces. But they all end up asserting “we cannot mean war” and “a diplomatic solution is inevitable”.

All intelligence out of Moscow says the same, that this bombast merely emboldens Putin. He can do what he wants in eastern Ukraine, because he has an army there and it enjoys widespread support among the Russian-speaking population. There is no question Putin has infringed the integrity of Ukrainian sovereignty. But so did America in its Latin American “sphere of influence” during the cold war. Meanwhile, Britain kowtowed to China for economic gain and Olympic glory when Beijing was treating Tibet far worse.

Foreign policy always involves double standards. The best policy is to avoid one’s own weaknesses and instead test those of one’s opponents. Peace and trade were slowly eroding the juggernaut of Russian power across eastern Europe. Now Nato’s pseudo-support for Kiev has played to Putin’s one strength: his support among Russian peoples along his borders. Kiev, the EU and Nato have played a dangerous game with Russia over Ukraine for years. Putin has laid down a marker for an armistice, talks on autonomy, one that is bound to look like a victory for him. It is for Kiev to pick it up. Nato can go on swilling champagne in Wales.

Now NATO in many ways resembles the behaviour of the "Crore Commanders" of Pukeistan,their bum-chums.They are parasites upon their member nations,judging from this report!

Chef says Nato feast gig will be summit of career for kitchen staff
By Western Daily Press | Posted: August 23, 2014

Award-winning chef Stephen Terry will be the brains behind a banquet for world leaders at next month's Nato summit.

He has been chosen as the head chef for a lavish dinner in Cardiff featuring the likes of US President Barrack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron.

The Marco Pierre White protege is promising to showcase the best in Welsh cuisine – and will be helped by 12 students from Cardiff Metropolitan University.

Mr Terry, who runs The Hardwick restaurant in Abergavenny, said: "This is a once-in-a-lifetime experience for these students and it will give them a fantastic opportunity to test themselves on what will be one of the biggest nights of their lives.

"I am sure Mr Cameron, President Obama and the other world leaders will enjoy the very best of Welsh food and hospitality."

Around 60 world leaders are to attend the two-day Nato summit, which is being held at the Celtic Manor in Newport, South Wales.

As well as official engagements at the five-star hotel, heads of state and government ministers will dine at venues around Cardiff – including the castle, the Royal Welsh College of Music & Drama and HMS Duncan in Cardiff Bay.

Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb said the event offered Wales a great chance to showcase itself to the world.

He said: "Wales is a confident, outward-looking nation and we are proud to be hosting this historic Nato summit.

"I am delighted Stephen Terry has been appointed as chef for the Nato dinner.
"He is without doubt one of the finest chefs to have ever come out of Wales.
"It's good to see him also selecting such a talented team of students from Cardiff Metropolitan University to support him in preparing this historic meal.

"The choice of Stephen to oversee this immensely prestigious dinner further displays how the summit is showcasing the best of Welsh business.

"The skills and expertise of businesses in Wales are being recognised on a global stage via this summit.
"World leaders will return home having enjoyed world-class cuisine here in Wales."

The summit will also present a test for the police.
Earlier this week, the officer in charge of the security operation said the event was "completely uncharted territory".
Assistant Chief Constable Chris Armitt said 9,500 officers from across the UK would be drafted in, including 1,500 from South Wales. During the 2012 London Olympics, up to 12,000 officers were on duty during peak times.
A eight-mile (13.5km) "ring of steel" has been erected around the Celtic Manor, and fencing and metal security barriers have gone up in Cardiff.

Interesting titbit:

“Remember that some very senior Nato figures will be conferring strategically about how far they can go in putting pressure on Russia to stay out of Ukraine – and by that I mean everything short of sending in the troops.

“That’s something Vladimir’s going to be very interested in indeed.”
But even if all the rooms are swept for electronic devices, something as innocuous as a stray mobile phone can still give cause for concern.
“Cell phones can be turned into wireless transmitters remotely and simply,” he said.
“The chaps at GCHQ are certainly very capable of turning on a mobile that’s already been switched off.
“And, in doing so, it can theoretically become a bug.

[Singha]

one can be 101% sure GCHQ+CIA will try to spy on Merkel, Italy PM of the day and Hollande again to see which way their thoughts are...

[ldev]

While the European Purchasing Manager's Index is headed down to zero growth (the level 50), the US is flying high. So who is bearing the pain of the sanctions? And how long will the Europeans be willing to bear the economic cost of heading into a recession?

[member_20317]

I was watching RT today. It is provided free on my dth connection. One of the schools was shown bombed out. Most likely the students will have to miss the whole academic year. It just crossed my mind how every Umrikhan and minion you see will talk about child rights, animal rights and sexual rights. Needless to say I was angered. But wait that is not what these friggin wretches stopped at. They showed families in shelters and big wide streets emptied out. I was wondering why would these people be so afraid as to abandon even their daily chores. Then they interviewed a curious little kid probably 6 years (larger slavic frame) who probably never went more than 200 mtrs from his house in his whole life. The little kid had developed some taste for military hardware. Just imagine what this kid is gonna do when he grows up. You think he will just grumble and trudge along.

Do you know what the kid had in his hands - that he collected from his backyard (at any rate not more than 200 mtrs from his home).

Flechettes.

Ok.
...................................................

The maps linked above did not make much sense to me until I saw it explained in English and much more simplified on RT. Apparently the rebels have sprung their own version of Russian Bear Hug. They first allowed the chocolate soldiers to come in at several places. The rebels simply abdicating the land they had earlier controlled. The chocolate soldiers then in step two got surrounded.

[Singha]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russia-s ... 1409565622

even ukraine claims only 1000 russian troops have joined the rebels, so I wonder what is the need to totally do a 180' , abandon their offensive officially(see link) and take up defensive positions?

the rebels must be doing quite well if this policy change has come about so quickly.

most of eastern ukraine is probably ripe for the taking and thinly staffed with demoralized govt units.

[Samudragupta]

The only country that can create an unified Europe is Russia... Germany tried in its failed attempt twice.....France after 1870 is not the country that is supposed to win wars....Anglo-Saxons probably know this...hence all these Rona Dhonas....

[ldev]

The payment for Ukraine:Isolation and punishment

The article originally appeared in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta in Russia. It looks at the Ukrainian crisis from a Russian standpoint. Interesting observations, that Russia does not expect outright support from the BRICS, that it is positive that the long term unspoken objective of the West is to replace Putin, that a normal relationship between Putin and the US is not possible even after the US Presidential elections and that the Kremlin now sees the US an outright enemy.....whew!!

Sanctions are not fatal. But in the case of sector-wide sanctions against entire industries, they will sour the economic situation and require a new model of development. Such a model does not yet exist, and a response mechanism to a serious economic blockade from the West has not been developed.
Russia has an economy that is not so deeply immersed in the global economy compared to China. But Russia is still bound very closely to global markets and especially to Europe, so it would be a bad idea to disregard the sanctions.
I also would not bank on Europe’s “greed”. Without a doubt, sanctions against Russia would be horrendously disadvantageous, but the pressure from the US has been very strong, and the informational situation surrounding Ukraine and the downed Malaysia Airlines flight has become extremely harsh. The international media has portrayed Russia as almost a rogue state.

There is no cause for panic, but Russia has not found herself in such a serious political, economic, or informational confrontation since 1991.
On a possible turn to the East
This would require very active work; we would need to seize the initiative and be highly assertive.
Russia does not expect the Brics or any developing countries to support its struggle against the Ukrainian government. They are not interested.
The fact that Russia’s actions led to a change of internationally recognised borders could also be taken as support for separatism on the territory of a neighbouring state. Such behaviour is not consistent with what China, India, or other developing nations consider appropriate in international relations.
At the same time, it is understood in Beijing, New Delhi, Brasilia, Pretoria, Tehran, and Buenos Aires that Russia’s actions had an extensive prehistory. Furthermore, it is recognised that Russia acted in response to pressure from the West, which heedlessly expanded its sphere of influence.
These countries will accordingly not join Washington’s chorus of those condemning Russia. In China, for example, the ‘‘battle for Ukraine” is not considered a local conflict, but a confrontation over the structure of a new global hierarchy. Russia’s defeat would mean the strengthening of the US and increased pressure on China. Thus, a certain amount of support is guaranteed.

On the aims of the West
It is seeking to end any support for the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. This is the immediate goal, as it is important to the US that Kiev achieves a military victory. Such a result is probably inevitable if Kiev secures the border with Russia.
This will not settle the Ukrainian crisis. Resistance will continue: instability, but with the territory generally under the control of the Ukrainian authorities.
The West’s long-term goal, about which it does not speak publicly, is a change in Russia’s domestic political situation, and regime change, if possible.
After all that happened this spring and summer, normal interactions between Washington and Moscow at higher levels are impossible. Not only for Obama, but in all likelihood for his successor. The Kremlin also sees the US as an outright enemy.
So the ideal scenario for the US is for Putin to leave office, especially now the level of demonisation has reached its peak, with highly personal attacks. We are not speaking of direct interference, but a deterioration in Russia’s position through sanctions, as a long-term way of weakening the ruling elite.
On why Israel’s operation disturbs the West less than the conflict in Ukraine
In the first place, everyone is accustomed to regular exacerbation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Second, Israel has enough allies within the US that it can expect support for absolutely any action, thanks to the influential Israel lobby.
Third, while Europe has much more sympathy for the Palestinians when compared to America, Europeans still harbour an enormous amount of guilt for the Holocaust. Thus it is frowned upon to criticise Israel, which is using military force to maintain its security.
On Russia’s introduction of sanctions
Russian sanctions came as a surprise.
I have a feeling that Europe did not expect such a harsh reaction. However, it was quite predictable. Moscow is not the type of capital city to tolerate being treated as a pariah or to succumb to overt pressure.
But because the sanctions war began, we must wait for the coming rounds. This is bad for everyone but the laws of politics are not always rational.
The most interesting thing is how this will affect the future of world trade and global regulations. What we are seeing from both sides aren’t violations but rather a disregard of WTO regulations, and thus politics reigns.
The Ukrainian crisis was the catalyst but the trend towards fragmentation of the global environment began earlier. It is possible that we will see a qualitative change in the world, far beyond the relations between Russia and the West.

Based on material from Lenta.ru and RBTH.