India nuclear news and discussion

[ramana]

I don't see how any civilain nuke commerce is possible with US.

MMS should meet Bush and thank him for helping with the NSG waiver and should sign the deals with France before he arrives and mutter what could have been possible and how many US jobs could not funded by India due to US Congress ostrich approach or shoot footitis. And then proceed to close the Russiian deal.

The WS meltdown has reduced the financial power and every day delay in bailout makes it worse. One of these days they will get some sense back into their heads.

[putnanja]

One more twist to row dogging Indo-US nuclear deal

One more twist to row dogging Indo-US nuclear deal

Washington (PTI): In yet another twist to the controversy dogging the Indo-US nuclear deal, a powerful Senate panel has approved a bill that seeks to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials or technology from the NSG countries or any other source in the event of violation of US laws.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted overwhelmingly to approve the bill by 19-2 sending it to the full Senate but questions remained whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President George W Bush would be able to sign the 123 Agreement when they meet on Thursday.

The US Congress, which is yet to approve the deal, is busy with the financial crisis and it is not clear whether the deal will pass muster in the current session slated to end on September 26.

One of the provisions of the bill adopted by the Committee makes it clear that "...it is the policy of the US to seek to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials, or technology from other participating governments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) or from any other source."

Such a contingency would arise in the event nuclear transfers to India are suspended or terminated in pursuance of provisions of the Hyde Act, the Atomic Energy Act or any other US law, the provision in the bill reads.

The bill also mandates that the deal will be subject to the provisions of the Hyde Act, Atomic Energy Act and other US laws, an issue on which India insists that it was bound only by the 123 Agreement.

Under the Rule of Construction, the bill says nothing in the agreement shall be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Hyde Act or the Atomic Energy Act of 1954.

New Delhi has been unhappy with recent assertions by Bush in the transmittal document to the Congress that the 123 agreement contains "political commitments" which are not legally binding on the US.

A State Department note to the House Foreign Affairs Committee headed by Howard Berman, a known critic of the deal, made it clear that fuel supplies would stop immediately if India conducts a nuclear test and specified reasons like market factors for ensuring uninterrupted supplies.

In the 123 Agreement, the US is committed to certain steps against disruption of fuel supplies to India including a provision that the two countries would jointly convene a group of friendly supplier countries like Russia, France and the UK to restore fuel supply to India.

Under the Senate bill, any nuclear power reactor and power fuel provided to India for use in safeguarded civilian nuclear facilities should be commensurate with reasonable reactor operational requirements.

The President shall certify to Congress that the implementation of the agreement is consistent with the obligation of the US under various non-proliferation treaties, it said.

[harik]

Thappad is supping upto Cohen on CNN-IBN-TV18 combine.
He is really sucking , Thappad as usual.

[samuel]

Washington (PTI): In yet another twist to the controversy dogging the Indo-US nuclear deal, a powerful Senate panel has approved a bill that seeks to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials or technology from the NSG countries or any other source in the event of violation of US laws.

Seriously, this is a surprise, how exactly now? Did someone actually think that the US will say, "sorry, our congress like that, you know democracy, best wishes, glad to help you out, welcome to the club, go India!"

What is far more likely is a US reinterpretation and our whining henceforth, "oh no, no, that's not what we negotiated," whilst being shoved around in the game between RU-FR-US. We got suckered in, now brace for the punches all the way to the back of the bus.
Bah!

[harik]

Washington (PTI): In yet another twist to the controversy dogging the Indo-US nuclear deal, a powerful Senate panel has approved a bill that seeks to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials or technology from the NSG countries or any other source in the event of violation of US laws.

Seriously, this is a surprise, how exactly now? Did someone actually think that the US will say, "sorry, our congress like that, you know democracy, best wishes, glad to help you out, welcome to the club, go India!"

What is far more likely is a US reinterpretation and our whining henceforth, "oh no, no, that's not what we negotiated," whilst being shoved around in the game between RU-FR-US. We got suckered in, now brace for the punches all the way to the back of the bus.
Bah!

Time for Manmohan to show that he is Singh and can say No when it matters , and yet he shld thank Ahulwalias and Shekhars.. for all the support and come back proud .Matha should do the rest , its her requirement.

[Rishirishi]

Washington (PTI): In yet another twist to the controversy dogging the Indo-US nuclear deal, a powerful Senate panel has approved a bill that seeks to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials or technology from the NSG countries or any other source in the event of violation of US laws.

Seriously, this is a surprise, how exactly now? Did someone actually think that the US will say, "sorry, our congress like that, you know democracy, best wishes, glad to help you out, welcome to the club, go India!"

What is far more likely is a US reinterpretation and our whining henceforth, "oh no, no, that's not what we negotiated," whilst being shoved around in the game between RU-FR-US. We got suckered in, now brace for the punches all the way to the back of the bus.
Bah!

Who cares the the yankees say. India can go elsewhere, Britain, France, Russia etc

[nkumar]

....

Im not sure, but I think I have read earlier that perpetual safeguards are applicable only if perpetual fuel supply is guaranteed.

The KLPD was there for every one to see in the last 12 months (except the most rabid optimist), why the surprise? Prime Minister's commitment to the Parliament and nation can take a hike, as we saw in his actions last few months.

Idiocity in full manifestation, dancing the dirty dance.

Thiz iz bhery bhery interesting. You beeoble are needlezzly worrying. Pleeeez have faith in your danda. If it doeznt get up, take vi@g@r@ and hope fol the best. Meanwhile have faith in our babucrazy, we don't need wakeel's, our babooze say, our holy l*nd beleeves in God, it will be up soon and take the prachanda roop. Halbard edookated vakeel Cibal & Bheesham Peetamah says 123 will chupercede everything, then bhu are you to questun, you moorkh. Parliament, assuranzes...bhat are they? Pleez dont take them out of your musharraf. Cholly fol the poor pingrezi, could not rezizt.

[ramdas]

So the full treason of the MMS clique is there for everybody to see. Wonder why Bhishma pitamaha joined this anti national gang. The only way out is to go ahead and test regardless of the consequences. Those business interests who have their fingers burnt as a result deserve this. The clique that curtailed our deterrent are a bunch of servile dogs. There is no doubt about that.

[RajeshA]

Ramana ji,

I agree, that US has not been the best salesman for its nuclear reactors. I would like to have your thoughts on countering the latest Senate Act, the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act through own legislation, putting down into Law our interpretation of the 123 Agreement and the consequences of US terminating the 123 Agreement because of nuclear testing. These things may include:

a. conditions to be fulfilled by US if it demands return of materials
b. negotiation over compensation
c. total stop to military cooperation with USA
d. withdrawal from MTCR, FMCT, Container Security Initiative, Proliferation Security Initiative, etc.
e. if a country targets India's strategic program (aka nuclear testing) through own Laws and Policies, like the US, they would need Parliamentary clearance for each sale of nuclear reactors to India

Would it be sufficient to counteract the adverse effects of US Law?

If yes, would it be OK for MMS to proceed with 123 Agreement?

[gandharva]

Why India is upset with George W Bush & Co

The Indo-US nuclear deal may have secured the approval of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yet India finds it unacceptable because of a change in language from the 123 Agreement it negotiated with the US.
India has expressed its reservations about the bill, stating that it would be difficult for India to accept the change of language and spoke of the significant issues it raised.

A part of the bill, which the Committee titled the 'United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act,' that India found unpalatable were in particular that it had to be in strict conformity with the Hyde Act, and also that in the event India tests, the US would not simply 'discourage' other Nuclear Supplier Group members to deny India nuclear equipment, materials and technology to India but work to 'prevent' such transfers.

Also, that the commitments regarding fuel supplies are indeed political and not legally binding.

In Section 101, titled Approval of Agreement, and sub-section (b) with regard to Applicability of Atomic Energy Act of 1954, Hyde Act, and other provisions of Law, the legislation approved by the Committee said, "The Agreement shall be subject to the provisions of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, and any other applicable United States law."

http://specials.rediff.com/news/2008/sep/24sld1.htm

[NRao]

Here is teh logic for the compromise:

Swadesh Chatterjee, coordinator of the US-India Friendship Council, an umbrella group of Indian American political, community and professional organization, that was formed solely to push through the deal, and which had an Advocacy Day on behalf of the deal on Capitol Hill Tuesday, said, "There has to be a compromise because we have to get it done because there will either be this bill or no bill and we can't let it go for next year because next year, you don't know how many changes there could be." {Next year they could have taken out teh reactors themselves. So.........}

He told rediff.com, "The changes in this bill from the original 123 Agreement could be insignificant compared to what could be tagged next year and so that it why it is so important to get it done. So, I think we have to live with it and see how it goes. The Senate is trying to make a compromise and it makes sense, because there cannot be two bills--one in the House, one in the Senate. The Senate bill has been okayed by the State Department."

Chatterjee predicted that when Dr Singh meets with President Bush they would reach a compromise which would facilitate the bill going forward "so that hopefully we can complete it in this year's Congressional session."

One senior Administration source told rediff.com that if India rejects the Senate Committee bill, "It wouldn't be just looking a gift horse in the mouth --particularly when timing is of the essence -- it will be kicking it in the mouth."

[ramdas]

all deals should go to Russia and France.. that too only if imported reactors come with fuel supply assurances in perpetuity. If not, Coal is the way to go.

[John Snow]

Classic case of Bait and Switch,
Narayanan and Shankara Menon

[NRao]

all deals should go to Russia and France.. that too only if imported reactors come with fuel supply assurances in perpetuity. If not, Coal is the way to go.

We need to wait till FR signs.

Do NOT be suprised if FR AND RU support the US on this one matter.

[John Snow]

We for got the simple tool of divide and rule.
As soon as NSG waiver was obtained we should have gone ahead and signed with Russia ( the ones that were on the table even before 123 garbage) and France recently... that would have put

Mano Vaigyanik Dabav ( Pshychological pressure)

[ramana]

There is no question of looking a horse in the mouth when its a donkey. I think the poor guy is too Macaulayised to understand his name Swadesh means independence and not slavery.

[nkumar]

Some relevant portions from the Aziz Haniffa article in rediff:

In Section 101, titled Approval of Agreement, and sub-section (b) with regard to Applicability of Atomic Energy Act of 1954, Hyde Act, and other provisions of Law, the legislation approved by the Committee said, "The Agreement shall be subject to the provisions of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, and any other applicable United States law."

In Section 102 of the bill titled, Declarations of Policy; Certification Requirement; Rule of Construction, and the sub-section which dealt with Declarations of Policy Relating to Meaning and Legal Effect of Agreement, the legislation clearly laid out that "Congress declares that it is the understanding of the United States that the provisions of the United States-India Agreement for Cooperation on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy have the meanings conveyed in the authoritative representations provided by the President and his representatives to the Congress and its committees prior to September 20, 2008, regarding the meaning and legal effect of the Agreement."

So, what according to the UPA was the internal matter of the US administration has now become a law! US has now codified what its interpretation of 123 is, but we will still play like a broken record and keep claiming...no no no...we will only go by 123

Senior Bush Administration officials, led by William Burns, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, who testified before the Committee last week, under intense questioning by the Acting Chairman of the panel Senator Chris Dodd and others, if the 123 Agreement commitment regarding fuel supplies were only political commitments and not legally binding, in the event that India tested, acknowledged they were the former.

And, subsection (b) of Section 102, titled Declarations of Policy Relating to Transfer of Nuclear Equipment, Materials, and Technology to India, which Sen had made clear was most offensive to India said, "Pursuant to section 103(a)(6) of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, in the event that nuclear transfers to India are suspended or terminated pursuant to title I of such Act, the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, or any other United States law, it is the policy of the United States to seek to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials, or technology from other participating governments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group or from any other source."

This is Hyde getting multilateralized as a law, and not just in thin air.

Sub-section (2) also eliminated India being the beneficiary of any additional material, when it stated that "pursuant to section 103(b)(10) of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006, any nuclear power reactor fuel reserve provided to the Government of India in safeguarded civilian nuclear facilities should be commensurate with reasonable reactor operating requirements."

And, in reinforcing the Agreement's conformity with the Hyde Act, the legislation stated in sub-section (d) titled Rule of Construction, that "nothing in the Agreement shall be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Henry J Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 or the Atomic Energy Act of 1954."

Yes, yes...still we say 123 will supercede Hyde
If India goes ahead with this deal, it will be creating a pressure point.

[RajeshA]

US Bill makes 123 subservient to local laws : PTI

In yet another twist to the controversy over the Indo-US nuclear deal, a powerful Senate panel has approved a Bill that seeks to prevent transfer to India of nuclear equipment, material or technology in the event of violation of US laws.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the Bill by 19-2, sending it to the full Senate.

The US Congress, which is yet to approve the deal, is busy with the financial crisis the country is facing and it is not clear if the pact will pass muster in the current session, slated to end on September 26.

One of the provisions of the Bill makes it clear that “...It is the policy of the US to seek to prevent the transfer to India of nuclear equipment, materials, or technology from other participating governments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) or from any other source.”

The Bill mandates that the deal will be subject to the provisions of the Hyde Act, the Atomic Energy Act and other US laws, an issue on which India insists that it is bound only by the 123 Agreement.

Under the Rule of Construction, the Bill says that nothing in the agreement shall be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Hyde Act or the Atomic Energy Act of 1954.

New Delhi has been unhappy with recent assertions by President George that the 123 Agreement contains “political commitments” that are not legally binding on the US.

[putnanja]

More Koodankulam units only if Russia amends law

More Koodankulam units only if Russia amends law

R. Ramachandran

A 1992 domestic law prevents exports to non-nuclear weapon States

Russia is already building two units at Koodankulam

Inter-governmental pact may be signed during Medvedev’s visit in December

New Delhi: One of the agreements signed between India and Russia during the visit of the former Russian President, Vladmir Putin, in January 2007 was a Memorandum of Intent (MoI) to add four more nuclear power units at Koodankulam, where Russia is already constructing two units.

The MoI also expressed the Russian interest to build an unspecified number of plants at other sites as well. However, a formal signing of an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) to implement these intentions is yet to be done, which is expected to happen during President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit in December this year.

But the IGA can be realised only if Russia amends a domestic law that restricts nuclear exports to Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWSs). This amendment is likely to be brought about before President Medvedev undertakes his visit to India, according to reliable sources.

The former President, Boris Yeltsin, issued Decree No. 312 on March 27, 1992 — which was later made law on December 21, 1992 — which states: “Export from Russian Federation of nuclear materials, as also technologies, equipment, installations and special non-nuclear materials, meant for their processing, use or production, at any state, which does not have a nuclear weapon, may be realised only under the condition of setting up of all nuclear activity of this state with the guarantee (safeguards) of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).”

The above implies that export of nuclear Trigger List items — equipment and materials directly related to nuclear fuel cycle — requires the recipient state to have implemented Full-Scope Safeguards (FSS) in its nuclear activities. Interestingly, the Russian regulation actually precedes the Warsaw amendments to the Guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that brought in the requirement of FSS for transfer of the Trigger List goods, which were adopted only in April 1992.

Though Russia, being in the process of building two units at Koodankulam, can be the first to get off the block in the wake of the recent amendment to the NSG Guidelines that waives the requirement of FSS specifically for India, the above law of 1992 must be amended and brought in line with the amended NSG Guidelines before it can revive nuclear commerce with India.
Exceptional transfers

The Russian law, as originally adopted in 1992, was actually stricter than the Warsaw Guidelines. It did not have the provisions for exemption from FSS under two exceptional circumstances that the NSG Guidelines had. These related to (1) transfers pertaining to pre-April 1992 agreements and contracts — the provision of “grandfather clause;” and, (2) transfers required for safety of nuclear plants. Such exceptional transfers could be done with islanded or facility-specific safeguards alone as against FSS.

In the original form of the law, Russia could, therefore, not have implemented the 1988 agreement for the two Koodankulam reactors, which the NSG Guidelines actually allowed. The necessary amendment came in the form of a Government Regulation No. 574 on May 8, 1996, after Russia sent a note verbale to the IAEA stating its adherence to the NSG Guidelines. Strangely enough, the amendment still did not incorporate the second of the exceptional circumstances, namely transfers for safety reasons.

This amendment to the law came only on May 7, 2000 through an Edict No. 822 issued by President Putin. It is only after this amendment, Russia could export uranium fuel for the Tarapur reactors in 2001 (and more recently in 2006) under the safety exception provision. It could not have done so in 1995 when the nuclear fuel supplied by France (under the 30-year Indo-American agreement of 1963) had run out. France could not continue supplies because of the requirement of FSS under the NSG Guidelines. India had to turn to China, then not an NSG member, which made a one-time supply in 1995.

Thus, as observers point out, Russia must get its legal framework in order and amend its 1992 law suitably if it has to take advantage of its better positioning in the Indian context and be the first to begin nuclear exports. Though details of French domestic laws are not readily available, it stands to reason that France too must have nuclear export laws that are in conformity with the NSG Guidelines. If so, France will also have to amend its laws to incorporate NSG’s India-specific waiver. It is not clear if this has already been done.

[John Snow]

I now await spirited rejoinder by Rangadu garu and also wait for Narayanan guru uvacha through Akashvani.

(Note Akashvani is not AIR but the celestial voice that propagates in the universe devine!)

[ramana]

Again guys, GOI is not wrong in saying that this new law is also an internal law that attaches conditions to the US Administration. The 123 that will be signed will be an international treaty and it does not have all these clauses. But this does not mean that the US should be rewarded with even those two villages sorry reactors as they have shown lack of trust. So what I am saying is dont look at GOI as having been duped.They walked in with eyes wide open.

This law is essentally reflecting the US collective will that they dont want to do nuke commerce with India. And thats fine.

[John Snow]

But one of the erstwhile member (who talked as if he himself built the bum, ) then went on to start his own blog , kept harping here in BRF that 123 was treaty of trust and hence must, so did KS the Bhishma no?

[Prem]

Again guys, GOI is not wrong in saying that this new law is also an internal law that attaches conditions to the US Administration. The 123 that will be signed will be an international treaty and it does not have all these clauses. But this does not mean that the US should be rewarded with even those two villages sorry reactors as they have shown lack of trust. So what I am saying is dont look at GOI as having been duped.They walked in with eyes wide open.

This law is essentally reflecting the US collective will that they dont want to do nuke commerce with India. And thats fine.

Should not this suit fine with India?
Mor kor Khoti Bohar Thale= She donkey keep coming back to the same spot.

[samuel]

The influence that the US has with FR, UK, and RU and CN is very strong. Let us suppose that nothing happens with the US, no 123 and we only operate within the ambit of NSG.

What do you really think will happen if "strategically sensitive" technologies are going to be exported and there is a US law that requires the administration to bring the house down when that happens?

You don't really believe that the US will flinch from exerting all influence to bring the house down...because say an American president will realize the massive blunder the US will be making by pissing India off and ignore congress?

The US will and is coming to an agreement with everyone on this matter. It will hold them to that agreement. There will be a bit of leeway, defined largely by our continued suck-madi to the others.



How dang naive am I being here?

S

[NRao]

I now await spirited rejoinder by Rangadu garu and also wait for Narayanan guru uvacha through Akashvani.

I think this cycle has to be broken. We aer shooting at each other for no rhyme or reason.

Oil and water cannot mix. This was bound to happen, very predictable. Now, only if India can make the very predictable happen in India - 100% nuclear offsets.

[Arun_S]

Ramdas sir, weigh on what we have given up in bargain, we have thrown open 14 of the 21 reactors to international inspection (some of these 14 were already in the list). We have seriously compromised our newclear option on the defense side. Both Manmohan and Sonia have fulfilled their role of castarating India (I have a firm believe that they were western plants).
rgds,
fanne

Fanne sahib: "Iti katha": End of the holy story, take the parsadam and go home.
It is monday and its all quite on the western front, the sucker in this drama (i.e. India) is left with the pot of nightsoil on its head. I hope the apologists who preached "have Faith", will keep peace forever and renounce the world to the seclusion of forest.

I forgot to add due to hurry: Where is the J-18 garden path that BU-MMS (BUsh-MMS) sold to Indians, and the constant preaching of "have Faith" by MMS walla. The deal is about civil nuclear cooperation & nothing to do with military strategic nuclear program.

It looked like shit, smelled like shit, yet there are some who would want us Indians to think otherwise, that unless one tastes it, one would not know the delightful grand "American apple pie" being offered, onleee disguised as night-soil. Well you have it now. Taken for a ride and soiled.

India has been chained and paid a heavy price for its foolishness.

Fanne mian: Aap kaa vachan Brahma satya.

[John Snow]

OK I back off NRao ji.

I can not expunge my remarks because of SW.

So R garu and N guru consider this as a retraction soliciting spirited reply.

[NRao]

No need to back off. Atlanta has good food places.

[NRao]

BTW, what is the news from CAT? Are they alive and kicking or drowned by MMS and his budget?

[AnantD]

India should stay quiet through the rest of the proceedinsg of the US Congress. No point repeating to the dumb and dumber what they already know.

What do you do when a used car salesman does a bait and switch, just refuse to sign the agreement and walk away.

Then rip up any prior agreements relating to nooklear (except NSG) and sign all kinds of deals with Ru and Fr starting with the 129 jets. Cancel any other unnecessary agreements that are no longer in our interest.

Start mining the indigenous uranium and use eminent domain and force if necessary to get that going. Rip up the Kyoto treaty and start polluting like crazy wil coal plants set up all over the place.

Ban the US from any nuclear related import and export by Indian Law, including for medical purposes.

[Gerard]

Indian firms eye nuclear business

[NRao]

AD,

Looo.....ng time.

No use antagonizing Uncle. We did see the power behind changing NSG minds.

Also, India has to still deal with France and then Russia. Uncle still has enough strings to pull - IF he wants. And, as I have stated before even RU, DURING the Georgian fiasco, very clearly stated that RU is behind the US on nuclear matters. The CNN reporter was pleasantly surprised by this news item.

Besides a reactive test should not cause any upheaval in DC. Given the situation all over India still has very good credibility rating.

The reaction is understandable. However, wish it had come prior to the Hyde Act.

[Arun_S]

Then rip up any prior agreements relating to nooklear (except NSG) and sign all kinds of deals with Ru and Fr starting with the 129 jets. Cancel any other unnecessary agreements that are no longer in our interest.

Start mining the indigenous uranium and use eminent domain and force if necessary to get that going. Rip up the Kyoto treaty and start polluting like crazy wil coal plants set up all over the place.

Ordering 129 jets pronto from non OOs country is the fist kick in the pants to begin with.

OTOH WTF is Kyoto and pollution?
India is not creating any pollution or hot-gas, nothing different from other worthy countries as they fired up their economic engine to make life of their citizens exceedingly better, riding on corpse of people who perised in the utopia of free market. Once Indian growth reaches an equilibrium commensurate with its people living a lifestyle similar to current dominant green-house gas producing countries, India may (repeat may) considering some rules, or imposing sanctions on countries that have disproportionately consumed per-capita energy retroactively from 1945. Yes, India will talk about pollution and its retroactive costs, but much later not now. Kyoto is a piece of toilet paper as USA has repeatedly asserted.

Recall Game theory: "New rules of the game are tools used by dominant player(s) to keep newbies from unsettling the current pecking order".

[ramana]

Actually the oil crisis and the financial cris will bring the "advanced' nations to their true status. The sugar high of Indistrail Revolution powered by cheap loot(finances from colonizaion) and cheap energy will come down.

The big picture shouldnt be lost. India was the rabbit that made the NPT lion jump in the well in Panchatantra terms. That three letter treaty doesnt mean anything to India from now onwards..

What the US doesnt want to is rip up the NPT treaty as they still have geopolitical goals but at same time they dont have the horsepower - demographic to take on their rivals. So its like Foundation. They wont do nuke commerce with India but they are allowing India to do with those who want and can.

Its for India and Indians what they will do with this. They can squander it or have small goals or they can grow it and have big goals.

The rabbit has done its work.

[ShauryaT]

Nuclear Deal – India plays Red Riding Hood

The American President is careful not to lie to his Congress – his letter, seeking Congress approval for the Indo-US nuclear deal, stated that assurances of fuel supply to India are not legally binding. The same however cannot be said of the UPA Prime Minister when he addressed Parliament on the issue or of the UPA Chairperson when she spoke to the farmers of Andhra Pradesh about how good the nuclear deal was for India. It is a fact that only Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh have actively pushed for the deal while other heavyweights in the Congress and Congress' allies in the UPA have only been making polite noises; not opposing the deal but not welcoming it either with the kind of fervour that the UPA Chairperson and Prime Minister have consistently maintained. If anything there is a marked lack of enthusiasm both within the Congress and the UPA over the deal.

The ugly charade of seeking Parliament approval for the deal through the tainted vote of confidence was played out in full view of the nation as our honourable members of parliament enacted the sordid bribe-for-vote scandal inside the august house. This much was evident – astronomical amounts of money (domestic, foreign or both) had steamrolled all genuine dissent to the Indo-American Nuclear Deal and it was tainted money that spoke in parliament on that day and not the voice of the people. Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, like their partner George W Bush before invading Iraq, contemptuously dismissed domestic public opinion. The world's largest democracy and the world's questionably most powerful democracy, trod democracy under their heels and rushed the deal in what amounted to indecent haste, to the IAEA and the NSG. But there is a difference here. While American Presidents may have contempt for democracy as expressed as voice of the people, they take care not to bypass the democratic process as embodied in their ruling elite oligarchy (Senate and House of Representatives). But the Indian Prime Minister and the UPA Chairperson have not only thumbed their nose at Parliament, they have contemptuously thumbed their nose at important voices within the scientific community, within the military establishment and even the political class. So strict is the adherence to the democratic process in the US that neither the American establishment nor the American President has sent even the faintest sign that the deal will be signed during the Indian Prime Minister's visit now to the US. But bartering away the nation's dignity, its sovereignty and its interests the Prime Minister has emplaned for the US with no assurances leave alone promises that the deal will be signed.

The Indo-US nuclear deal is touted as the UPA government's crowning foreign-policy achievement; why this trade in nuclear fuel and technology should pertain to the foreign-policy domain and not simply to trade and commerce, may not be clear at once. The nuclear deal agreement was signed by the American President on December 18, 2006, barely a month before Russian President Putin's state visit to India in January 2007. Vyacheslav Trubnikov, Russian Ambassador to India had remarked then that nuclear co-operation was the most important agenda on Putin's diary during that visit. Indian and Russian nuclear officials signed a MoU for construction of four more one-gigawatt nuclear reactors in Koodankulam in Tamil Nadu, in addition to the two units already under construction in Koodankulam by Russia's Atomstroyexport. Pending India's bilateral agreement with member countries of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group or NSG, Russia had indicated that it expects to win contracts to build at least ten more nuclear reactors in as-yet unspecified sites in the country. It needs mention that the NSG, trading in nuclear fuel and technology, functions like OPEC which trades in petroleum; that, while member countries in these blocs are free to enter into bilateral agreements with non-member countries for purposes of trade, broad policy decisions and guidelines governing the trade are made only by the bloc collectively. Russia, a late entrant to the NSG, became a member of the group only in 1992.

Besides the MoU, the Russian President and the Indian Prime Minister had signed in January 2007 a memorandum to prepare before the end of 2007, a comprehensive document on nuclear power co-operation agreement between the two countries. The nuclear establishment and our strategic experts have not told us the status of this very important intended agreement. My own guess would be that the official document outlining such an Indo-Russian agreement on nuclear power co-operation has probably begun to taxi, but has not received government (read US) signal for take-off. The trading in nuclear fuel and technology and the issue of contracts for the building of nuclear reactors in India had thus begun to acquire foreign policy connotations. A vibrant economy consistently expanding the base of its middle-class, military strength in terms of hard ware and manpower in conventional warfare, an indigenous nuclear science research establishment leading to demonstrable clout accruing from success in the nuclear civil and military sectors, and an indigenous space programme are the contemporary power indicators signaling a country's power to influence world affairs. The NSG has signaled its readiness to deal with India on the basis of the waiver but Manmohan Singh has not permitted India's nuclear establishment to start business with Russia and France both of which countries had always been ready to enter into agreements for nuclear co-operation; instead the Prime Minister is holding up all contracts until the US Congress assents to the deal after which India will begin the trading process with the US signing the first slew of contracts. This is not nuclear trade and commerce, this is foreign policy.

Given the power indicators of geopolitics, the US had every reason to fear revival of the traditional ties between India and a re-assertive Putin's Russia, especially through the nuclear route. It must also be borne on mind that in 1998 the then Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov had mooted the attractive idea of an India-China-Russia triangle. To a pointed question on the triangular relations by the media in January 2007, Putin replied, "The Prime Minister and I discussed trilateral cooperation today. We did not discuss the matter in detail, but we noted that it is an interesting and useful format. Furthermore, we are united by our desire to resolve regional problems in a way acceptable to all sides. We therefore think that there are good prospects for work together in a trilateral format". There is little doubt that Putin's remarks about trilateral relations being useful to resolve regional issues must have been interpreted (correctly) as a step to reduce and ultimately eliminate America's influence in the region. It was perhaps the threat of the renewed special relations between Russia and India with China as a potential ally in the group which may have triggered the US to move fast to cement the nuclear deal with a speed hitherto not displayed in any aspect of Indo-US ties.

India's energy requirements include electricity and non-electric energy in industry for purposes of heat application (process heat and space heating) and energy for transportation. Currently the global average of energy use is one-thirds of primary energy (nuclear energy, fossil fuels and renewable energy) as electricity with the remaining two-thirds used in heat application and for transportation. The general trend in developed nations, where the transportation sector consumes about one quarter of all energy produced, is to replace petroleum-based hydro-carbons like gasoline and diesel with nuclear energy generating energy carriers like hydrogen and electricity. Research in these areas have begun and the objective is to get even aircrafts to fly on hydrogen. Energy carriers are energy sources we use for domestic and industrial purposes, derived from primary energy sources like nuclear energy, fossil fuels and renewable sources like solar and wind power. In short, the movement is towards getting nuclear energy to replace fossil fuels as power source for all non-electric purposes.

For the moment let us set aside the issue of India's energy requirements and the quantum of deficit in energy production as against demand. Let us examine America's energy requirements and the state of its fast-declining and almost defunct nuclear industry. It is not just the nuclear industry in America which is in the doldrums; Americans are increasingly becoming aware of the serious trouble in manufacturing, in industry and in infrastructure development. In short, the fundamentals of the American economy are unhealthy and need to be revived and kick-started urgently and for this they are going to need energy and fast. The time has come for the global bully policeman to rein its hubris, stop waging global wars as a compulsive indulgence of this hubris and attend to its home; last week's collapse of the US financial edifice is not only a symptom of this acute malaise but also in a sense its culmination.

American experts have mooted the idea of no fewer than 100 new nuclear plants within the next decade to revive the flagging American economy and the defunct nuclear power industry. However, the 2005 energy legislation passed by the American Congress has provided for insulation of the power industry from procedural and regulatory delays only with respect to six prospective new nuclear plants. The Bush administration though is contemplating building only three nuclear plants by 2010 – an initiative which falls far short of their gargantuan appetite for power. American misadventure in the middle-east, its modern-day oil piracy combined with a Christian Crusade in Iraq have antagonized even the formerly subservient Saudi Arabia; and since the close of the 1990s decade, White House occupants and hopeful occupants have been articulating the need for America to minimize its dependence on Gulf oil.

So what are the real options before the US? There is practically no more coal-fired power generation in the US and the power generated by natural gas-fired turbines is woefully inadequate and is adding only "part-time power" to put it charitably, to overall power generation. Existing coal-fired electric power plants in the US have all aged or aging and are also greatly polluting with alarming levels of carbon-monoxide, carbon-dioxide and sulphur-dioxide emissions. As regards the economic viability of coal power, the cost of retrofitting aging and aged coal plants to meet anti-pollution standards equals the cost of building new power plants. To add to America's problems, America's manufacturing and industry are adversely affected by America's dependence on coal for transportation. America's freight railroads are running so many goods trains to carry coal for power stations across the country, that for more than 30 years now, movement of all other freight by rail has been steadily declining. The US therefore has no other option but to turn to nuclear power – to meet rising domestic consumption, demands on infrastructure and consumption from a growing population, to revive its manufacturing and industry and to invest in the flagging infrastructure development industry.

The most worrisome aspect of the Indo-US nuclear deal is what precisely is the US going to give India – build nuclear plants for us, give us nuclear fuel or share nuclear technology? What is the cost that India will be forced to pay for this co-operation and is it worth the cost if we have the capacity to meet a great part of our energy requirements without the deal? The US has refused to share any kind of technology with us because it knows that all nuclear technology is dual-use and it is a thin line which divides the civil nuclear from the military nuclear programme. So the deal is not going to get India any up-to-date nuclear technology with respect to building reactors, fuel enrichment or spent-fuel reprocessing. Fuel supply through the deal from the US and from other countries in the NSG comes with the condition of not conducting nuclear tests for military purposes. The UPA government has not told the nation if the ban on nuclear testing includes testing new and advanced missiles carrying nuclear payload. The American President has told his Congress that assurances of fuel supply to India are not legally binding and if India were to conduct nuclear tests then America will be governed only by domestic laws and all further cooperation with India will cease as will supply of nuclear fuel. So, the only economically viable aspect of the deal is America negotiating contracts to build nuclear plants in India – something that will benefit the American economy more than it will benefit India because if building nuclear plants alone is the issue here, then Russia or France or even China could have built them for us with fewer debilitating conditions and more advanced technology. Is the US in any position to build nuclear reactors for India with American nuclear plants as aged or aging as its coal plants?


What exactly is the status of the American nuclear industry?


Of the 430 nuclear plants operational in the world today, 104 are located in the US. However, in 1991, 112 nuclear plants were operational in the country; this means since 1991, several nuclear plants in the US have been de-commissioned. In terms of nuclear energy, since 1991, 7000 megawatts of nuclear power have been removed off the line, of which, units generating 6000 megawatts of nuclear power have been permanently disabled. During the next ten years it is believed that 30 more nuclear reactors may have to be re-licensed because they have already attained the re-licensing operating life-time limit of 30 years. Of these, some reactors have already been re-licensed, some reactors are being reviewed for re-licensing while some have not even applied for review. Since 2000, 22 new nuclear reactors have been commissioned and are now operational in different countries of the world and another 25 nuclear reactors are in various stages of construction; several of the 22 operational reactors and of the 25 under construction are located in Asia. But none among the 22 reactors already commissioned or among the 25 under construction is in the US.


For nearly two decades now no new nuclear reactor has gone on-line in America whereas Russia, China and Japan are racing towards operationalising third generation and even fourth generation nuclear reactors. While Russia is well on the way towards its first floating nuclear plant (stand-alone nuclear reactors on ships and barges which can provide electricity to remote localities in difficult terrain), Japan, China and South Africa (!) are successfully building and operating High Temperature Reactors or PBMR (Pebble Bed Modular Reactors) which seek to transform their countries towards a hydrogen-based economy. Russia is also moving in this direction with its own HTR PBMR at the testing stage. Now, the million dollar question – if the US will not give us nuclear technology (what technology?), if nuclear fuel supply comes with non-negotiable conditions from the American side of the deal, and if the US has not built any new reactor at home for over three decades (going by the laws governing the re-licensing process in that country), why is the UPA government hell-bent on the nuclear deal with the US whose own domestic nuclear industry is out-dated and decrepit?

Getting back to India's energy sector – as per the Eleventh Planning Commission Report, our country's total installed power generation capacity stands at about 1,44,000 MW. The approximate share of the installed capacity between Hydro (coal-fired), Thermal, Nuclear and renewable are 25%, 67%, 3%, and 5% respectively. The contribution from renewable energy sources is mainly from wind, bio-mass and small hydro and industrial waste. Out of the tenth plan target of adding another 41,110 MW to the installed capacity we managed to add only 23,250 MW and the deficit will spill over into the eleventh plan. The eleventh plan itself envisages adding 68,869 MW, not including the deficit from the tenth plan. The country's target by the end of the eleventh plan is to generate 200,000MW of power. It cannot be gainsaid that India's nuclear power sector must be geared to contributing a heftier share than the paltry 3%, of the total power generated so far. But does this need to be done only through the Indo-US nuclear Deal route when we have an abundance of thorium and even as we are perfecting our fast-breeder reactors? Opposition to the deal with the US has come from the Indian scientific community and military establishment. The reasons are simple:

1. A vibrant nuclear weapons programme demands enough Natural Uranium (NU) which has about 99% of the non-fissile Uranium isotope called U 238 and about 0.7% of the fissile isotope called U 235

2. Natural Uranium which contains just 0.7% of U 235 must be enriched to 3-4% of U 235 for fueling nuclear reactors. Natural Uranium is enriched to about 93% of U 235 to make it weapons' grade Uranium

3. Several countries of the world use enriched U 235 to fuel their reactors.

4. India uses NU because of the indigenously developed Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) which can be fuelled by NU and do not need enriched U 235.

5. India's nuclear weapons programme is using, not enriched U 235 but Plutonium

6. India, by reprocessing its spent fuel from its PHWRs extracts Plutonium which because it decays radioactively, is used in India's pioneer Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) and is also used for military purposes

7. India's test FBR in Kalpakkam and the two prototype FBRs also in Kalpakkam use Plutonium in a Thorium 232 Blanket around the core to breed U 233 which is also breeder fuel

8. Uranium 233 is fissile Uranium which does not exist naturally but can be manufactured in perpetuity in FBRs using Thorium By using NU to fuel reactors, by reprocessing spent fuel to extract Plutonium which will be used with Thorium in FBRs to manufacture U233, India would not only be nuclear fuel self-sufficient but would also have completed the nuclear fuel cycle.

The key is Natural Uranium and Plutonium. Plutonium can be extracted only by reprocessing spent fuel and the conditions imposed by the Indo-US Nuclear Deal is that India cannot reprocess spent fuel from the reactors which will be set up after the deal is concluded and will also have to place its reactors under an intrusive IAEA inspection regime which will monitor our reactors to ensure that India does not reprocess spent fuel. We have been told that reactors existing in India prior to the deal will not be subject to IAEA inspection but this will also mean that Uranium sold to India by the NSG cannot be used in these reactors because we can still separate Plutonium by reprocessing spent fuel from these rectors. The question plaguing the scientific community, military establishment and Indians with a modicum of common sense is does India have enough Uranium deposits to run her reactors which can eventually give us enough spent fuel which can be reprocessed to extract Plutonium which can be used in our FBRs to breed the fissile U 233 which will give us enough fuel not only to run our reactors but also to fuel our weapons programme. But what is not spoken about loudly enough even by the political class is that given the critical importance of Plutonium for fuelling our FBRs and for our weapons' programme, Manmohan Singh last year ordered closure of Cirius II our spent fuel reprocessing reactor unit; one year has since passed. This anti-national decision has effectively undermined our nuclear fuel security and it is plain as daylight that Manmohan Singh ordered closure of this fuel reprocessing unit only as an unstated condition of the US to cap our fissile material. Manmohan Singh has in effect acceded to the Fissile Material Control Regime. Because we cannot extract Plutonium any longer if this unit is de-commissioned, not only will our weapons programme be stymied but our thorium and Plutonium fuelled FBRs too will be aborted.

When new oil and natural gas deposits are being discovered in the KG basin, with functional hydro, thermal and growing biomass power projects, with a hard-earned indigenous nuclear programme are we so desperate for power that we need to sign a slave treaty called the Indo-US nuclear deal? Who is the real beneficiary? With all these facts in the public domain India cannot credibly play Red Riding Hood. That the US has wolfish economic, military, strategic interests in India is well-known and documented. The Indo-US Nuclear Deal is subordinating national sovereignty to development achieved not by our efforts but with the 'help' of predatory regimes. Perhaps the financial crisis in the US is our Gods machinating to sabotage the deal.

Radha Rajan, 23 September, 2008.


(The author is Editor, www.vigilonline.com)

[RajeshA]

The Jekyll Act

I have been giving some thought lately on this issue and trying to formulate an adequate response.

The Legislation coming out of USA flies in the face of all assurances Manmohan Singh gave in the Parliament. The 123 Agreement was vague in many areas in order to paper over the discrepancy between July 18, 2005 Statement of Nuclear Cooperation and the Hyde Act. It allowed different interpretations by India and USA. The US Congress went back and closed all loop holes and forced a singular interpretation, the American PoV. Legal commitments of Fuel Supply became simply Presidential assurances. The illusion, that 123 Agreement will override Hyde Act, once it is passed, also was washed away. Now the US Administration is bound by law to prevent India from amassing a strategic fuel reserve but also to prevent other countries to continue their cooperation with India, if India does a nuclear test.

So what to do?

Now that the legislative process in US Congress is over, Manmohan Singh should now also try to build a multipartisan consensus in India on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal. He should first of all admit, that he could not get everything that he set out for. He should then set up a Committee to consider Legislation by the Indian Parliament to mitigate the harmful provisions of the Hyde Act and the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act.
This Law should assert the Indian interpretation of the 123 Agreement and consequences to USA.

Some provisions of this Law could be as follows:

1. Any country, which follows this policy of sanctioning India's strategic program (nuclear testing), would need a prior Parliamentary clearance for each sale of nuclear reactors to India.

2. Any country, which terminates a bilateral civil nuclear cooperation treaty citing Indian activity in the strategic sphere, will also be withheld cooperation in the strategic sphere.
......(a) All privileges to use Indian airspace, ports, fueling facilities and overland routes for military purposes by the concerned country would be canceled.
......(b) India's cooperation in all security initiatives of importance to the concerned country, which do not have UN Sanction, will be terminated (Container Security Initiative, Proliferation Security Initiative, etc)
......(c) Bilateral training exercises between the two militaries would be stopped, while defense intelligence exchange will be minimized.
......(d) Other countries would be favored for major defense acquisitions.

3. This policy will continue, until the Government of India assures the Parliament that the civil nuclear cooperation by the concerned country with India has resumed and India has been sufficiently compensated for the disruption.

These are just my humble proposals. Take them for what they are worth.

[Philip]

Rajesh,nicely put and Ramanna as usual has reminded all about our good "spin doctor" trying to convince the country of the excellent "nuclear power" racehorse that he is purchasing when in fact it is a lame donkey with the grin of a monkey! I have stopped using the word "treason" a long time ago as it's contextual relevance on the issue is well understood and usage popular on this thread!

For aeons,many of us on BR have cried foul regarding the deal.History and the US's track record speaks for itself.Finally,the "Ugly American" true to nature has removed its mask to display in all the light its ugliness.Uncle Sam doesn't want an equal partner,not even a Deputy,that is reserved for the likes of Blair, Brown or Sarko-if he's interested,but for India,we are merely meant to ride at the back with the posse.Sure,we've been invited into the "Nuclear Club".....but not to dine at the high table with the members,but to serve them at their table and gather their crumbs.But from each cascading revelation,I fear not even that, but to clean the Club's latrines!

So I wish our pro-active,World Bank,Oxbridge,puppet PM all the very best of (bad) luck as he seeks to rewrite history and reduce India from an independent nuclear power into that of a neo-colonial "night-soil" cleaner.

[RajeshA]

Phillip,

This nuclear deal too has been a journey for me. I was pro-deal because I thought it meant an end to India's nuclear isolation and that India would be able to access technology, unbridled by national laws and sanctions. However the way USA has gone about it and how MMS has been bending ever more to the US and its Legislative machinery, has given me the cramps.

Since MMS has had to bow down so much, he has to do all the more to stand up straight. As the current Mantra goes ..

We have the sovereign right to test, US has the sovereign right to react.

Similarly,

US has the sovereign right to legislate, we have the sovereign right to counter-legislate.

The NSG Waiver did give us a bit more "freedom", but we need the Jekyll Act to give us a modicum of our DIGNITY & SELF-RESPECT back.

[Prabu]

Good post Rajesh !

Indian Counter Hyde act is a must to show our determination and GOI should take views from commies and BJP in formulating this.

This is not antogonising uncle, but a sense of parliment. But the question is will be MMS & CO deliver ?

[Raja Ram]

Time for me to post a ramble once again I guess.

It may sound like a broken record, but right from the outset, I have been saying the same thing again and again. This deal, if it had followed the original intent and the sequence of steps strictly, would have been a worthy compromise and served Indian interests well.

But at every step, the USG has broken and gone back from its commitments while the GOI has stayed the course and accepted every deviation. Now, what is the reason for this? One could go and cite many reasons for this and there could also be a grand piskological conclusion at the end of it. Let us, for sometime suspend that urge gentle readers.

If this latest attempt to go back on the commitments by the USG is also accepted by the GOI, then I believe we are accepting nuclear dhimmitude in perpetuity. That is why, your not so humble commentator, had pointed many posts ago that it is important to understand what is the vision the present dispensation has for India. I have been talking about the "Japan model" as a possible vision for India that Manmohan Singh and the present day congress has in mind for India. If this is true, it is a model that has accepted dhimmitude. India deserves better. I would even go so far to say that this government does not have the mandate to accept that model as our destiny. It is not acting in consonance with Indian national interest as articulated and practiced in no small measure by the very same congress party and every dispensation that has ruled India so far.

So what is the key question now? Should the GOI walk away from the 123 agreement with the changes that are being pushed through now? Or should we still sign up and not buy from USG because of the risks involved in sourcing US reactors given these clauses, conditions and the hiding Hyde act? Instinct would probably say that we should look at the first option and walk away.

If we do that what will happen? Will the NSG waiver be revoked? Can it be revoked? NSG, remember gentle readers, is a private cabal, and the big guy there is the US. If they wanted a waiver they got it, corollary - if the USG wants to revoke they should be able to get that done by the NSG too. Now theoritically, we can argue that a resurgent Russia or an eager France will turn around and say in the NSG, "Look Mr. USG, you were prepared to honour the earlier version and in fact argued that it was a great deal, now just because you are not able to manage a few senators, don't spoil our chances to do business with India. We will not accept any waiver revocation now. Screw you guys, we are going to sell to India."

If the GOI is able to get that sort of assurance from these countries it can make it easier for GOI to stare down US in its last minute attempts to sneak in more C in the CRE attempts.

However, should the GOI take a decision to sign up on the dotted line with these last minute changes, with a view that India can then decide not to source from the US but others, would it work? The intention here would be not to jeopordise the hard won battle of rolling back the anti India arrangement the NSG but to side step this latest trap by the US neatly. Is it possible? The answer to these questions is unclear at best.

Let us also look at the worst case. We refuse to sign up to this. The NSG also withdraws the offer on the table. Is India back where it was before? The answer is No. It will still be in a better position, as the entire hypocrisy of the west has been exposed and their carefully nurtured "keep India outside the tent" policy has been dealt a body blow. If we persist with our own internal programme of nuclear development, improve delivery capability and reach of nuclear deterrence, grow the economy and at the same time burn more coal, there will be another deal on better terms a few years down the line.

I hope that I am wrong about the present dispensation's vision for India and they would stand to serve India better. It is time to draw a line in the sand and say "No more changes, deliver or no deal." India needs that assertive voice and I sincerely hope that it is still there.

It is also interesting note that the USG that is capable of driving over 40 countries to sign up on the dotted line, does not have the capability of convincing its own senators, people in power I hope do understand the drama that is being played out in the US.

As usual a ramble for what it is worth.