India-US Strategic News and Discussion

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Apr 2011 10:19

Prem wrote:Devesh Miyan,
IMHO, any international power sructure without us is wazibul Qatal. Destroy that instituion and watch the tamasha. Cant wait for the day when India will be able to use all left hand five fingers into UN Musharraf and tickle them to heart content.

Prem ji,
Sorry ji, but to the question Should India leave UN, if we don't get a veto seat in UNSC?, the BRFites have already answered with a NO!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Apr 2011 10:43

This US admin has been acting in a manner that is just not condusive to the improvement in bilateral relations. First the review of all on going defecne deals with India and then when BHO was in Yndia, the the emphasis on deals was obscene. I for one am glad that Indian money cannot be used to subsedise the weapons for TSP. At least in this respect.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 Apr 2011 10:48

I would say give some other sops to the US to encourage them to do the right thing in Af-Pak. Defense imports from any foreign source are problematic, not only due to issues of spares, but also due to the dangers of Trojans or kill-switches. But if one can get tech transfer along with the purchase, then it may be tolerable.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 29 Apr 2011 13:21

Cosmo_R wrote:"Questioning whether these aircraft represented the best value for the IAF and the best investments for India overall, Mr. Tellis said to The Hindu that those in the U.S. who felt that India had settled for an aircraft over a strategic relationship would also conclude that “there is no reason why the administration should bend backwards to accommodate India.”

Mr. Tellis, formerly a senior advisor to the Ambassador at the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, a staff member of the National Security Council and Special Assistant to the President, also had critical words for the manner in which the decision was made and announced.

He said that it only made things worse given that “the GOI knew full well the importance the administration attached to this sale... [and] a quiet intimation of the coming decision would have helped.”

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 819298.ece

We can of course, dismiss Dr. Tellis as a 'tool' etc. but the truth is IMHO, he's right. The pro-India lobby has been weakened.

Everything I'm hearing is really worrying. This has the potential to undercut those who have expended time, money and effort to promote the strategic relationship. The anger is palpable.

Well, the stunning Carla Bruni or vivacious/zaftig Angela Merkel better be prepared to deliver item numbers ...

Really, select a relationship over fighter. What has Mr. Tellis been smoking? Mr Tellis what will happen when America turns fickle or worse provides Pakistan with exactly the same weapons which have been provided to India, thus negating the 10-11 USD Billion spent. India's strategic autonomy is very important and too crucial to be made dependent on some American whims. Did Mr Tellis really think that India was going to give life support to assembly line which produced the delivery vehicle for Paki nuke?
It is America or shall i say certain Americans which put on this deal the weight on Indo-US relationship. It was not India. And if they are disappointed it is because of two reasons, 1) American unreasonable expectations and 2) Pitching Obsolete weapons.
Yes granted the only active AESA avaliable is with Americans and not with the europeans, but Mr Tellis you should know that America has not provided the code for AESA to an ally like UK. The chances of US to provide such a source code to India are remote to say the least. Further there is nothing preventing the French and the EFT consortium from developing a AESA radar for India.
Granted F/A-18SH has some amazing sensor facilities, but the whole package has to be taken into the account and not just sensor.

satya · Post by **satya** » 29 Apr 2011 13:41

Unkil ko mirchi lagi hei. This is a first i guess . Will be interesting to know wht they do next either continue the same old way more EJs more SDRE bashing + == thing or they take right steps . It was a message ball in unkil's court .Will be interesting to record unkil's & co. rxn both in desh & videshi media .

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 29 Apr 2011 14:02

This Deep Disappointment by Yankees is not only because of IAF disqualified US teens but this decision by 4th largest Air Force will hit future prospects of US teens in other countries' air force procurement

. I remember ACM saying IAF technical evaluation procedure is itself a template/handbook for other countries to decide on a fighter plane for procurement.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Apr 2011 14:32

Muppalla wrote: The so called pro-Indian lobby is f-ed up lobby. There may good and genuine folks but along with them there are substantial number of others are there to only promote their business and I am sure about it. The anger can be due to loss of personal deals. If I am India, I will take this with a tonne of salt.

India does not need a lobbying in US. It is totally useless as USA is hellbent on being opposing to India strategically. As long as it keeps on singing that Pakistan is their need and it is just waste. US doesn't want to listen and what is that lobbying will do. All that lobbyists will do is go to India and tell it how better off India will be without JK and nukes.

Thats right. I think you Muppalla'h has it spot on. Someone who I spoke to who was close with the negotiations on the 120k troops inafghanistan issue was saying the same thing. Amriki has no interest to help us and they aren't serious. More than we have to prove our sincerety, US hasto show some sincerety first. How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us and 26/11.

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Apr 2011 14:47

Perhaps one template that was used in the selection was how to prevent aircraft technology from getting into the hands of the Chinese!

The Chinese would not be getting any aircraft technology from the Americans, and Russians would not want to part with their top of the line technology either, so the soft spot, the weak link are the Europeans, and with their economic woes they might just be tempted into selling technology to the Chinese, overriding the objections of the Americans!

So perhaps it was just a means of preempting such an outcome! Actually it makes sense to partner with Europeans and to base the decision on technical grounds. There was little to expect from America on any big strategic issues!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 Apr 2011 14:49

First we had the nuclear power plant liability issue. Then the murky ISRO-Devas deal, which had the likes of Madeline Albright lobbying for it, was canceled. But it's not that the US is getting completely locked out. This is from 2 days ago:

Decks cleared for $5.8-bn C-17 Globemaster deal

New Delhi: The deal to buy 10 C-17 Globemaster-III aircraft from Boeing of the US is a step closer to being clinched. The finance ministry, after initial objections, has sanctioned the money for the acquisition.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/de ... l/781863/0

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 16:30

@shyamd^^^:

"How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us [this is saying we need them] and 26/11.[this is also saying we need them]

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us." [GoI should articulate why they need us]

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Apr 2011 17:01

Generally speaking you need to keep your cards close to your chest. As the Godfather told his son: "Never let them know what you are thinking". The guys in Delhi are not jingoistic like Iran and show off etc. They are a bit slow but they know the right steps to make.

You ask why? When PRC starts showing its nazi style global ambitions. When Pak does something very stupid indeed. PRC is busy doing its bit - annexing land in central asia, SE asia, so PRC is at the back of a lot leaders minds.

The wind is blowing india's way. Its just a question of time before people look to us to help secure their interests.
For now we must focus on growing our economy and the rest of the pieces will fit into place.

The need of the hour is to really form military alliances who have a common cause. Problem is Dilli lacks a lot of coordination with security and foreign policy.
IFS and leftists are a problem, changing their mindsets is an issue. Like singapore has been asking for strong defence relations since 65! Yet we only got things together in 94 and things have moved forward in last 7 years or so.
Some people have a problem with BJP types too and see them as an impediment.

Let's just pray that the Supreme lord shows us the right path and keeps our environment safe (terror and natural calamities).

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Apr 2011 18:43

Cosmo_R

>>'They' are not the 'understanding' types.

They have no choice but to understand, just like we have no choice but to understand some things like the occasional travel advisory. They can play for other deals, just as we extract from them certain things. This is par for the course. The relationship has matured fairly quickly, and people understand the value of stable, sane partners like the US ... I suspect they are beginning to appreciate the same qualities in us as well - well compared to the neighbours all around, that's not a difficult task.

Of course, moans from Tellis, Pai and I'm sure others must be understood as standard operating procedure. It would just not be good form to not moan. It's a marketing expense, so we won't forget how much they moaned when we have to make a similar decision next time.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 29 Apr 2011 18:47

Unkil will understand and move on. I'm sure that elements within the chamber of commerce types will have some heartburn but it won't harm the overall ties.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 29 Apr 2011 20:26

I'm thinking IAF will finally go for Rafale and if that's the case, the one thing that could have been done differently was to perhaps include one of the American options in the final two instead of the Eurofighter. These things always have a political angle and doing that would have been a low cost sop.

Regardless, I always thought that IAF would have to be forced by the politicos to choose a US fighter. I felt that it was either Rafale or the Russian options when push comes to shove. The Swedes were a decent fall back but since Bofors the MoD has been scared of dealing with them. Buying American is acceptable for cargo jets and one off weapons platforms but for the heart of the strike force it has to be homegrown or a more reliable foreign supplier like France or Russia. I mean reliable in the sense of IAF being confident that there isn't a kill switch hidden somewhere. The French will surely charge a heavy premium but that's the price we have to pay for not having a homegrown fighter of that size/class.

There will be fallout in the US for sure but the bulk of it is likely to be benign. I'm sure that there will be fewer leaked stories of the type "Unkil offers Aegis" etc. but those types of deals were never likely anyway. Boeing and co will not make too much noise because they know that there are always more deals to be done with India.

derkonig · Post by **derkonig** » 29 Apr 2011 20:53

Somehow its hard to believe that the teens could be kicked out even with unkil's bellboy MMS around, so lets wait out until the order gets placed the ink tries on the paper.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 21:01

JE Menon wrote:Cosmo_R

>>'They' are not the 'understanding' types.

They have no choice but to understand, just like we have no choice but to understand some things like the occasional travel advisory. They can play for other deals, just as we extract from them certain things. This is par for the course. The relationship has matured fairly quickly, and people understand the value of stable, sane partners like the US ... I suspect they are beginning to appreciate the same qualities in us as well - well compared to the neighbours all around, that's not a difficult task.

Of course, moans from Tellis, Pai and I'm sure others must be understood as standard operating procedure. It would just not be good form to not moan. It's a marketing expense, so we won't forget how much they moaned when we have to make a similar decision next time.

Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 29 Apr 2011 21:05

Cosmo_R wrote:
Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.

May be, but what's wrong with that. In fact, when the issue of CISMOA came up, a senior IAF officer wondered why we need to sign that as India and US won't be fighting together anywhere. It makes sense for their NATO allies, but not for India. Exercises are all fine, and one can learn from the other, but I seriously doubt anyone in India thinks that India and US will be fighting common foes in some corner of the world!

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 21:07

Christopher Sidor wrote: "Questioning whether these aircraft represented the best value for the IAF and the best investments for India overall, Mr. Tellis said to The Hindu that those in the U.S. who felt that India had settled for an aircraft over a strategic relationship would also conclude that “there is no reason why the administration should bend backwards to accommodate India.”

We can of course, dismiss Dr. Tellis as a 'tool' etc. but the truth is IMHO, he's right. The pro-India lobby has been weakened.

Really, select a relationship over fighter. What has Mr. Tellis been smoking? Mr Tellis what will happen when America turns fickle or worse provides Pakistan with exactly the same weapons which have been provided to India, thus negating the 10-11 USD Billion spent.

Several people who bet their life into this US India strategic relationship are feeling nervous. They had made many promises to US establishment and put themselves in the front assuming that they own the decision. Such people seem to be in trouble since many took few people into their decision circle and tried to push through the deal without the larger consensus of the country. This is the real issue here in the "strategic deal"

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 29 Apr 2011 21:20

^This is the fallout of the David Headley case. People do not realize how deeply shocked the Indian establishment was at the brazen shamelessness of the US in protecting this mass murderer. Every Indian politician and bureaucrat was disgusted with US at this point. I had written this very thing during that period itself, and I had mentinoned that it will have an impact on the MRCA deal. The politicos must be relieved that the US planes failed to make the grade in the technical specs itself. Hence, they do not need to cook up excuses for throwing the yanks back into pakistan.

Seriously, UK, US and pakistan deserve each other.

I just hope they do not choose the Eurofighter as it has a UK component. Having UK as a seller is as good as having yanks as sellers. Besides, having Rafale means we deal only with one bunch of politicians, not 3/4 bunches as is the case with Eurofighter.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 29 Apr 2011 21:22

It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

sum · Post by **sum** » 29 Apr 2011 21:26

^^ Honestly, if a 6B $ deal for just 10 planes ( C-17 deal) cannot satisfy US and every deal needs to go to US just to ensure "deep friendship" is shown, then doubtful that even giving the MRCA to the Amir-khans is going to gain anything ( other than a few more free F-16 Blk-50s to Pak which will now be indirectly funded by India)

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 21:32

sum wrote:^^ Honestly, if a 6B $ deal for just 10 planes ( C-17 deal) cannot satisfy US and every deal needs to go to US just to ensure "deep friendship" is shown, then doubtful that even giving the MRCA to the Amir-khans is going to gain anything ( other than a few more free F-16 Blk-50s to Pak which will now be indirectly funded by India)

Now we are talking the real issue here. It is not about the planes but which country will align closely militarily with Indian forces in the future which is of importance. With the sales of fighter jets US wanted to have the front seat by proxy in the sub continent but it will not be.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2011 21:58

People may believe it or not, India has given a jhapad. The system worked one more time.

negi · Post by **negi** » 29 Apr 2011 22:00

^ You are simply reading too much into all this; remember IAF<>GoI.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Apr 2011 22:00

vera_k wrote:It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

What India needs is a Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship, and thats not on the cards anytime soon, nor would it have come about by this sale. This ""what have you done for me lately" kind of relationship will always be there and its not going to go away because India said no today.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Apr 2011 22:07

abhischekcc wrote:^This is the fallout of the David Headley case. People do not realize how deeply shocked the Indian establishment was at the brazen shamelessness of the US in protecting this mass murderer. Every Indian politician and bureaucrat was disgusted with US at this point. I had written this very thing during that period itself, and I had mentinoned that it will have an impact on the MRCA deal. The politicos must be relieved that the US planes failed to make the grade in the technical specs itself. Hence, they do not need to cook up excuses for throwing the yanks back into pakistan.

Seriously, UK, US and pakistan deserve each other.

I just hope they do not choose the Eurofighter as it has a UK component. Having UK as a seller is as good as having yanks as sellers. Besides, having Rafale means we deal only with one bunch of politicians, not 3/4 bunches as is the case with Eurofighter.

Boss, I am not so sure it will have an impact though. There are several layers at work here when it comes to US. The business lobby, the arms lobby, and of course the politicians, CIA/Pentagon etc. Unlless, India delivers the message clearly to Obama, Hilary etc, that till US takes India's TSP concerns seriously, this is what will become of India US relations manifested in this rejection of US aircraft, nothing will change. And India herslef must stop this Aman ki tamasha nonsense with TSP and treat it like the terrorist vermin that it is.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 22:18

CRamS wrote:
What India needs is a Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship, and thats not on the cards anytime soon, nor would it have come about by this sale. This ""what have you done for me lately" kind of relationship will always be there and its not going to go away because India said no today.

It is all about geo politics. It is Geography and Politics. It is geopolitical and strategic factors that together characterize a certain geographic area. Until this is aligned only then we will have similar to Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship. It is India s region. Others have to align to it.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2011 22:28

negi wrote:^ You are simply reading too much into all this; remember IAF<>GoI.

Totally agree. However, the circumstances post 2G and Wikileaks, it is extremely impossible to overturn the decision. There are several wheels inside GOI that will not allow uncle's men to succeed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Apr 2011 22:30

vera_k wrote:It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

Issn't it time for the question to be asked in reverse direction? One cant claim continuity in govt and self absolve for the many stabs at India:

_ Propping TSP and PRC
- Providing F-16 delivery vehicles for TSP's PRC provided nuke weapons
- Providing cover for PRC proliferation to TSp even after Cold War was over in the 90s
- Deputising PRC as leader of Asia in late 1998
- Providing DCH to cover forward recce of targets in India and Mumbai in particular.
- Not handing over Rana who isn't yet convicted in US court

And Ambassadors acting like plenipotentiaries of Imperial state and talking to secessionist rebels

Roemer was roaming in Kashmir talking to secessionist leaders giving them legitimacy and expects to seel goods to India?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Apr 2011 22:31

arnab wrote:
ramana wrote:MRCA decision is revealing the MUTU types in media among others.
I would never classify Nitin Pai as a MUTU type, which is why I find his views on this subject perplexing to say the least. As much as I appreciate contrarian views.

Arnab,
Why did you have to quote my post to make Your point?
If you want to snipe at nitin why do you need my shoulder!

Dont do that in future.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 22:40

putnanja wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:
Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.
May be, but what's wrong with that.

Nothing wrong with it. It is simply being seen as that. If that is the signal IAF wants to send, it's done it the right way.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Apr 2011 22:42

ramana wrote:
vera_k wrote:It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

Issn't it time for the question to be asked in reverse direction? One cant claim continuity in govt and self absolve for the many stabs at India:

_ Propping TSP and PRC
- Providing F-16 delivery vehicles for TSP's PRC provided nuke weapons
- Providing cover for PRC proliferation to TSp even after Cold War was over in the 90s
- Deputising PRC as leader of Asia in late 1998
- Providing DCH to cover forward recce of targets in India and Mumbai in particular.
- Not handing over Rana who isn't yet convicted in US court

And Ambassadors acting like plenipotentiaries of Imperial state and talking to secessionist rebels

Roemer was roaming in Kashirm tlalking to secssionist leaders giving them legitimacy and expects to seel goods to India?

BossGaru, excellent points. But do we have evidence though that it was because of all these reasons that the aircraft deal did not go through? If so, can this message be delivered?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 29 Apr 2011 23:07

Why is non selection of F-teen such a big issue and is considered a Jhapad to Unkill but no one sheds a tear for Russians. Not even a word.
Are we not guilty of taking American feelings of not able to close a sales deal far too seriously. Why assign Chanikian motives once again to GoI.
We didn't like the plane, we rejected it
just like America has always rejected our need for dual-use technology. In the end it is all business and we bought what we like.
Rest all is Maya and spin by spinsters.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 29 Apr 2011 23:11

I sort of agree, much as I would like to hope that the down select is a "message" -- it is not IMVHO, at least in geo-political terms. Its message and hence the "jhappad" is at a much more basic level. "You were trying to sell us a piece of steaming hot effuse? Get lost." -- a technical level of "you are not good enough" message.

We will have to wait for Vajpayee-ji to return (or some one like him) to administer the right sort of geo-pol medicine.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 29 Apr 2011 23:31

Cosmo_R wrote:@shyamd^^^:

"How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us [this is saying we need them] and 26/11.[this is also saying we need them]

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us." [GoI should articulate why they need us]

GOI can articulate but khan's realization has to come from within.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 29 Apr 2011 23:53

I am going to bring another angle here in this discussion. Any BRFites here doing currency/FOREX trading would know the USD is falling too steeply. If it breaks the 2008 levels of US Dollar index and if the debt ceiling is not changed before it exhausts, there is a much much bigger problem for US than a deal gone bad. America is in a situation where if they do not act in the next 2 months and get the dollar up, financial meltdown of 2008 will look like picnic.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 30 Apr 2011 00:13

The early information coming out from government is that the prime minister's office was not involved in the final decision to reject the two American bids, but that the Congress party leadership took the final call.

http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebat ... recno=2136

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Apr 2011 02:05

sheesh, both these teenage sensations from masa are near their end of life.. and being phased out by raptors and jsfs. They wanted a huge market like ours, but not without having 1 billion odd MUTUs guboing every time uncle comes for pleasure.

bhat, unkill didn't realize was the india rubber company makes all the allergy products, and low quality that is never up to unkill standards. so, unkill thinks all billions are alike and needs to be treated the same. unkill has no idea that our sdre labs can make a raptor at 1/10th of the cost, but only naat supported by mutuish babooze.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2011 02:10

VikasRaina wrote:Why is non selection of F-teen such a big issue and is considered a Jhapad to Unkill but no one sheds a tear for Russians. Not even a word.
Are we not guilty of taking American feelings of not able to close a sales deal far too seriously. Why assign Chanikian motives once again to GoI.
We didn't like the plane, we rejected it
just like America has always rejected our need for dual-use technology. In the end it is all business and we bought what we like.
Rest all is Maya and spin by spinsters.

The have the 5th gen and Su30mki purchases. The a/c they sent is an orphan. Mig has merged with Su design bureau.

So don't cry for me Argentina.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 30 Apr 2011 02:50

The Obama Administration really hasn't put in the kind of work Bush put in to the relationship with India, even though he has been tougher on Pakistan.

He certainly can't expect as much.