The crisis in Ukraine has led to corporate EU and America suspending their business in Russia. Electronics, Automobiles, energy, food, beverages , chemicals , engineering - across the spectrum we see companies toeing the US govt line.
I believed that the mercantile class were immune to wars to some extent. But apparently not. Of course, Sanctioning smaller countries like Noko etc has little to no effect on world trade. However, this large scale sanctions on Russia has significantly depressed the markets.
Russia, on its part , has prepared itself for the sanctions . While this is equivalent to "hibernate" mode, I would like to understand what stronger countermeasures do nations and states have against corporates. What options do they have for those companies who may, at some point, restart business .
If nations find a way to penalize corporations in an era of unprecedented world trade, weaponizing corporations would become more difficult. As someone with primarily engineering background, this would be good for me to understand.
Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
The inability of nations to solve the puzzle of a modern economy and build the blocks of future technology is the greatest stumbling block towards the emergence of viable challenge to the western dominated global power.
There is no alternative to spending hard cash in developing domestic technology base. In terms of the ability to develop lithography machines for foundries. The size of a domestic economy which has to ability to absorb the products of r&d expenditure on such lithography machines.
The Americans solved this issue in the late 80s. Which allowed them to dominate the emerging technology space. It is this domination which has permitted the Americans and by extension the western nations to weaponise corporations.
I am thinking primarily in terms of India. Along with the need to preserve our strategic autonomy in face of unreliable US power. Coupled with an unrelenting PRC that is anti India with its attachment in TSP.
Regardless of how this war ends. IMO the following technical capabilities are going to the bare minimum in preserving our ability to exist as independent nation. Over the next 15 years.
1) building lithography machines.
2) building rupee as an international currency for trade and commerce. Most importantly develop oil purchase agreement with OPEC in Indian rupees.
3) Have a strong private sector industrial R&D base. Capable or developing technical standards in both consumer and industrial segments that are indigenous to India. The rest of the world can follow our standards. Have it be directed and funded by the state if necessary.
4) create banking systems independent of the western banking. Let it be open for the moment.
5) domestic ITES servicing domestic consumers ( from operation systems of desk tops, to hand held to wearable devices, to communication software, to applications software)
6) the ability to build jet engines, both hydro carbon and other emerging fuels. Internal combustion power packs and transmission units.
7) independence in and ownership of wireless communication solutions.
developing energy independence in terms of being able to fabricate the building blocks of both renewable and non renewable energy. Independent of the capacity of a foreign country.
9) the ability to provide cheap transportation solution (public and private) to our population through domestic industry.
As time goes by, more and more capacities will be required. This is just the basic list that I am able to think off.
More will come as I able to think. Others are free to develop it further.
There is no alternative to spending hard cash in developing domestic technology base. In terms of the ability to develop lithography machines for foundries. The size of a domestic economy which has to ability to absorb the products of r&d expenditure on such lithography machines.
The Americans solved this issue in the late 80s. Which allowed them to dominate the emerging technology space. It is this domination which has permitted the Americans and by extension the western nations to weaponise corporations.
I am thinking primarily in terms of India. Along with the need to preserve our strategic autonomy in face of unreliable US power. Coupled with an unrelenting PRC that is anti India with its attachment in TSP.
Regardless of how this war ends. IMO the following technical capabilities are going to the bare minimum in preserving our ability to exist as independent nation. Over the next 15 years.
1) building lithography machines.
2) building rupee as an international currency for trade and commerce. Most importantly develop oil purchase agreement with OPEC in Indian rupees.
3) Have a strong private sector industrial R&D base. Capable or developing technical standards in both consumer and industrial segments that are indigenous to India. The rest of the world can follow our standards. Have it be directed and funded by the state if necessary.
4) create banking systems independent of the western banking. Let it be open for the moment.
5) domestic ITES servicing domestic consumers ( from operation systems of desk tops, to hand held to wearable devices, to communication software, to applications software)
6) the ability to build jet engines, both hydro carbon and other emerging fuels. Internal combustion power packs and transmission units.
7) independence in and ownership of wireless communication solutions.
developing energy independence in terms of being able to fabricate the building blocks of both renewable and non renewable energy. Independent of the capacity of a foreign country.9) the ability to provide cheap transportation solution (public and private) to our population through domestic industry.
As time goes by, more and more capacities will be required. This is just the basic list that I am able to think off.
More will come as I able to think. Others are free to develop it further.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
We have a good number in the work force, but not skilled labour., besides in a lot of industries , robotics is replacing human labour. We need to up skill the work force, improve productivity. The market is large., so MNCs must build and maintain in house.
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Neela
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Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Pratyush, great points. Independent development acts as good countermeasure. However, my question is : how can governments target large corporations which can act as a deterrent / template for future . Meaning - the outcome should be such that corporations should resist being dragged by govts into their wars by fearing specific countermeasures against them from the hostile country.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Our government cannot act against any western corporation in India. It can only act against the entities incorporated in India which belong to the MNC.
The best way to deal with a western power's MNC is to make them irrelevant in the grand scheme of our own economy.
That will remove their ability to be weaponised against India.
Eg. If Google is told by US government to shut down Android along with its eco system in India. It can do so. But if, India owned and had Android equivalent OS for the phones along with relevant tech eco system. Google even if, weaponised against India will fail.
But if, you want to act against Google. It cannot happen in the absence of a full blown war. But such an action will by default weaponise these companies against us as a consequence.
Up until now, we are only taking about entities in an interstate context.
When it comes to entity vs state. Depending on the nature of the state entity will suck it. Eg. NBA vs PRC, or Nike vs PRC.
India by default is not such a state. But nothing stops our citizens to go after such offending companies and make them submit.
The best way to deal with a western power's MNC is to make them irrelevant in the grand scheme of our own economy.
That will remove their ability to be weaponised against India.
Eg. If Google is told by US government to shut down Android along with its eco system in India. It can do so. But if, India owned and had Android equivalent OS for the phones along with relevant tech eco system. Google even if, weaponised against India will fail.
But if, you want to act against Google. It cannot happen in the absence of a full blown war. But such an action will by default weaponise these companies against us as a consequence.
Up until now, we are only taking about entities in an interstate context.
When it comes to entity vs state. Depending on the nature of the state entity will suck it. Eg. NBA vs PRC, or Nike vs PRC.
India by default is not such a state. But nothing stops our citizens to go after such offending companies and make them submit.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Praytush,
I think the GoI have sufficient powers to force any multinational company including western companies. The trick is to start believing in your capabilities.
Heck if Australian can force Facebook & Google to pay royalties to news media for any links displayed and they were the first country to do so, so can India. Even Google and Facebook had to bow before the Australian government, a country with far smaller GDP than India.
I think the GoI have sufficient powers to force any multinational company including western companies. The trick is to start believing in your capabilities.
Heck if Australian can force Facebook & Google to pay royalties to news media for any links displayed and they were the first country to do so, so can India. Even Google and Facebook had to bow before the Australian government, a country with far smaller GDP than India.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
HGupta,
That payment of royalties has a different context.
I am operating from the POV of the western power's weaponisation of big tech and international finance arrangements against Russia.
In the Australian context the leverage was in the hands of Australian people. Who were the consumers of the news. Google and Facebook were just an added layer top of that.
A removal of Google and Facebook from Australia would just push the news consumer to the web page of the newspaper he or she is comfortable with.
Where such a context exists, the Australian approach can work.
I am looking at this from an absence of such a context. Which applies in case of western companies and Russia. In this case their is a limit to how much Russia can force compliance with such companies.
The American companies,WRT, PRC today is also a different scenario. Because when the US government puts the hammer down. The NBAs and Nikes of US will fall in line. Conversely PRC also has leverage against US federal government because of the deep inroads it has secured in wall street.
I am not certain, if, wall street with investments in PRC will fall in line when the hammer drops. But this is not about one American company against PRC.
Such an approach might work in favour of India. But given the predatory nature of the US. I am not certain if India should permit such an approach to develop.
That payment of royalties has a different context.
I am operating from the POV of the western power's weaponisation of big tech and international finance arrangements against Russia.
In the Australian context the leverage was in the hands of Australian people. Who were the consumers of the news. Google and Facebook were just an added layer top of that.
A removal of Google and Facebook from Australia would just push the news consumer to the web page of the newspaper he or she is comfortable with.
Where such a context exists, the Australian approach can work.
I am looking at this from an absence of such a context. Which applies in case of western companies and Russia. In this case their is a limit to how much Russia can force compliance with such companies.
The American companies,WRT, PRC today is also a different scenario. Because when the US government puts the hammer down. The NBAs and Nikes of US will fall in line. Conversely PRC also has leverage against US federal government because of the deep inroads it has secured in wall street.
I am not certain, if, wall street with investments in PRC will fall in line when the hammer drops. But this is not about one American company against PRC.
Such an approach might work in favour of India. But given the predatory nature of the US. I am not certain if India should permit such an approach to develop.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
We are discussing more than just corporations and trade, this thread should perhaps be named "India's strategic autonomy" to cover military, intelligence, agriculture and food security, water, health security, communications, data storage, cyber, space, energy, interoperability with other countries and their systems, financial regulations and systems, crime fighting, information & media (news, social and print & TV), international travel, navigation and maritime, essential raw materials, electronics, h/w & chips, OS & other S/W, even education and research etc...
As these sanctions on Ru have shown, just about anything can be weaponised, charters and treaties can be damned. While strategic autonomy can't be achieved in every sector and the goal of 100% autonomy will produce diminishing returns, it will be worthwhile to explore which areas India is relatively autonomous and loosely coupled vs relatively dependent and tightly coupled. What should we prioritise to achieve the degree of autonomy desired. What policies can be effective, what webs of cooperation we need to create. Will we be better off creating inter-dependencies than just taking countermeasures?
With so many learned members on this forum, we could have some interesting discussions.
As these sanctions on Ru have shown, just about anything can be weaponised, charters and treaties can be damned. While strategic autonomy can't be achieved in every sector and the goal of 100% autonomy will produce diminishing returns, it will be worthwhile to explore which areas India is relatively autonomous and loosely coupled vs relatively dependent and tightly coupled. What should we prioritise to achieve the degree of autonomy desired. What policies can be effective, what webs of cooperation we need to create. Will we be better off creating inter-dependencies than just taking countermeasures?
With so many learned members on this forum, we could have some interesting discussions.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
It will be good to split this up into two broad ideas. (1) Strategic Autonomy and (2) Inter-dependencies.
From a trade and mercantilism perspective, building up inter-dependencies is more beneficial than trying to close yourself off into a self-contained economy. Hypothetically, if it were China invading Taiwan (instead of Russia Ukraine) would the EU and US have taken a similar approach? IMO that would have been impossible, given that China is vital cog in almost all global supply chains. If you block trade payment to and from China and disrupt shipping routes - pretty soon there will be no goods flowing into US and EU ports. By goods I don't mean just low tech low value stuff like clothing, toys and other consumption items. But vital capital goods and other intermediate goods that are required pretty much for any sort of manufacturing / assembly. Think auto components, batteries, electronics (not just silicon but also wires, fasteners, frames and moulds), pharma, industrial goods....
So while strategic independence in areas like jet engines, silicon (lithography, fabs), internet core routers and data centres, energy, finance etc. is crucial in the medium-long term... What's more achievable and should be targeted on mission mode is to become a critical supplier in areas where we already have a head start - and then developing industries where we become the dominant players such that any future sanctions on India hurt the US, EU and China more. That IMO is the only way to de-risk
From a trade and mercantilism perspective, building up inter-dependencies is more beneficial than trying to close yourself off into a self-contained economy. Hypothetically, if it were China invading Taiwan (instead of Russia Ukraine) would the EU and US have taken a similar approach? IMO that would have been impossible, given that China is vital cog in almost all global supply chains. If you block trade payment to and from China and disrupt shipping routes - pretty soon there will be no goods flowing into US and EU ports. By goods I don't mean just low tech low value stuff like clothing, toys and other consumption items. But vital capital goods and other intermediate goods that are required pretty much for any sort of manufacturing / assembly. Think auto components, batteries, electronics (not just silicon but also wires, fasteners, frames and moulds), pharma, industrial goods....
So while strategic independence in areas like jet engines, silicon (lithography, fabs), internet core routers and data centres, energy, finance etc. is crucial in the medium-long term... What's more achievable and should be targeted on mission mode is to become a critical supplier in areas where we already have a head start - and then developing industries where we become the dominant players such that any future sanctions on India hurt the US, EU and China more. That IMO is the only way to de-risk
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Pratyush ji and others,Pratyush wrote: 1) building lithography machines.
...
Please take a look. I posted a link to IRDS roadmap reports here.
viewtopic.php?p=2538070#p2538070
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Indian diaspora is at the same time a strength and a weakness. As the Ukraine conflict is showing, they can be used as bargaining chips. Don't forget how China arrested 2 Canadian nationals to negotiate the exchange of Huawei CFO Meng Wangzhou arrested by Canada on fraud charges. Bidenwa secured her release and the exchange.
Recent events show that foreign nationals will be weaponised if an unscrupulous country wants to.
Recent events show that foreign nationals will be weaponised if an unscrupulous country wants to.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Indeed., i think India will need to escalate if diplomatic niceties fail..the Russians seem to have been right about them using hostagesCyrano wrote:Indian diaspora is at the same time a strength and a weakness. As the Ukraine conflict is showing, they can be used as bargaining chips. Don't forget how China arrested 2 Canadian nationals to negotiate the exchange of Huawei CFO Meng Wangzhou arrested by Canada on fraud charges. Bidenwa secured her release and the exchange.
Recent events show that foreign nationals will be weaponised if an unscrupulous country wants to.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
CAATSA Sanctions will come. I hope India has the counter ones ready. This will be one time shot. May be, try and get rid of the one which will have the biggest blowback within India. Like block Facebook and twitter.
All govt payments have to be only via Rupay.
All govt payments have to be only via Rupay.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
The most complicated thing is the oil supply and prices for us. This represents a tremendous unavoidable strategic weakness. This can be largely mitigated by green technologies but not wholly. We need to look at alternative things like Thorium which I fear we are not doing much.
The weak manufacturing sector can be addressed by us in half-decade if serious efforts are made immediately. As international free trade will be dead, the tariff measures to give protection will be there soon in all the countries. We can also resort to those measures on Chinese imports.
The weak manufacturing sector can be addressed by us in half-decade if serious efforts are made immediately. As international free trade will be dead, the tariff measures to give protection will be there soon in all the countries. We can also resort to those measures on Chinese imports.
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Neela
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Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Yes, within t he next decade we are looking at huge tariffs/duties across major trading borders eventually and potentially ending up in large scale military actions.Yagnasri wrote:The most complicated thing is the oil supply and prices for us. This represents a tremendous unavoidable strategic weakness. This can be largely mitigated by green technologies but not wholly. We need to look at alternative things like Thorium which I fear we are not doing much.
The weak manufacturing sector can be addressed by us in half-decade if serious efforts are made immediately. As international free trade will be dead, the tariff measures to give protection will be there soon in all the countries. We can also resort to those measures on Chinese imports.
But what is nagging me is corporations like Google, Apple etc deciding to simply pull out. There is a price they have to pay and I dont know what that is.
One thought that came to my mind: Can we say 50% of turnover made in India for example made in the last year should be held in Indian accounts at all times. This ensures we seize the assets of the corporations and hurt them. Imagine if we do this to Hyundai?
Our market access must come at a price for corporations willing to take sides.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
For starters why not enforce local data storage for ALL tech companies., whatever related to India and its citizens stay within its borders.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
India needs its own search engine and mobile/tv/device OS along with strong data protection rules like GDPR forcing data storage in India and stricter privacy laws. There were some talks on these but haven't heard much from Niti Ayog or anyone else. Technology and connectivity denial is a real threat.
People like Rajiv Malhotra have been warning us for a few years now and haven't been taken seriously. Hope we do now because a whole additional dimension of strategic risk has been added.
A good part of the capital expenditure outlay on infra building like highways etc must be diverted to this. We can manage with bad roads we are used to for a few more years. If the tech plug is pulled suddenly, we'll be in a lot more trouble. Expecting private industry to step in one such matters of national security would be a costly mistake.
People like Rajiv Malhotra have been warning us for a few years now and haven't been taken seriously. Hope we do now because a whole additional dimension of strategic risk has been added.
A good part of the capital expenditure outlay on infra building like highways etc must be diverted to this. We can manage with bad roads we are used to for a few more years. If the tech plug is pulled suddenly, we'll be in a lot more trouble. Expecting private industry to step in one such matters of national security would be a costly mistake.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Why dont India develop an alternative to SWIFT for global transactions, judging by the way Rupay has been successful.,Neela wrote:Yes, within t he next decade we are looking at huge tariffs/duties across major trading borders eventually and potentially ending up in large scale military actions.Yagnasri wrote:The most complicated thing is the oil supply and prices for us. This represents a tremendous unavoidable strategic weakness. This can be largely mitigated by green technologies but not wholly. We need to look at alternative things like Thorium which I fear we are not doing much.
The weak manufacturing sector can be addressed by us in half-decade if serious efforts are made immediately. As international free trade will be dead, the tariff measures to give protection will be there soon in all the countries. We can also resort to those measures on Chinese imports.
But what is nagging me is corporations like Google, Apple etc deciding to simply pull out. There is a price they have to pay and I dont know what that is.
One thought that came to my mind: Can we say 50% of turnover made in India for example made in the last year should be held in Indian accounts at all times. This ensures we seize the assets of the corporations and hurt them. Imagine if we do this to Hyundai?
Our market access must come at a price for corporations willing to take sides.
The Chinese CIPS + Russian SPFS ., CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) for corporations and banks.
Now that SWIFT has demonstrated that it responds to US political pressure, it is effectively doomed
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
I am going to address several different points in this post.
1) Indian alternative to SWIFT will happen when Indian rupee becomes one of the acceptable currencies of international trade.
2) Initially Justdial had the ambition to build the most preferred search engine in India. But absence of local deep pocketed VC support put paid to such an ambition.
So, we have to tell Google to remove Google.com as a preferred search engine in India from the Android devices. Followed by permitting a different app Store for Indian market. It can be from Microsoft or Paytm or ZOHO. But it will not be Google Play. This App Store will not permit any Google service or application as a first choice.
But don't outright ban these services.
This should create an incentive for local it companies to develop a local mobile OS and supporting ecosystem.
Do it in the name competition for consumers.
1) Indian alternative to SWIFT will happen when Indian rupee becomes one of the acceptable currencies of international trade.
2) Initially Justdial had the ambition to build the most preferred search engine in India. But absence of local deep pocketed VC support put paid to such an ambition.
So, we have to tell Google to remove Google.com as a preferred search engine in India from the Android devices. Followed by permitting a different app Store for Indian market. It can be from Microsoft or Paytm or ZOHO. But it will not be Google Play. This App Store will not permit any Google service or application as a first choice.
But don't outright ban these services.
This should create an incentive for local it companies to develop a local mobile OS and supporting ecosystem.
Do it in the name competition for consumers.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
My biggest concern is about the near monopoly enjoyed by Android devices in India.
How do we break it?
How do we break it?
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
The easiest way I can think of is:
Android OS is open source. Samsung, OnePlus and all other mobile mfgs add a layer of wrapper around the OS kernel to tweak UI, certain features etc.
Indian Govt should develop and issue a first level security layer around the kernel - lets call it BharatKavach to give a name - make this compulsory to enable network access in India - Other usual wrappers can be built by phone co.s only on top of this.
This should prevent Google or any Co arbitrarily altering/disabling the critical security features Indian Govt will put into the OS. GoI should update the BK wrapper each time the Android OS itself is updated.
I'm not android guru, but based on my basic knowledge, this should be quite possible.
I'm not familiar with Apple iOS - can't say if something similar can be imposed there by installing an app.
Of course google and apple will scream - but who gives a rat's Musharraf ?
Android OS is open source. Samsung, OnePlus and all other mobile mfgs add a layer of wrapper around the OS kernel to tweak UI, certain features etc.
Indian Govt should develop and issue a first level security layer around the kernel - lets call it BharatKavach to give a name - make this compulsory to enable network access in India - Other usual wrappers can be built by phone co.s only on top of this.
This should prevent Google or any Co arbitrarily altering/disabling the critical security features Indian Govt will put into the OS. GoI should update the BK wrapper each time the Android OS itself is updated.
I'm not android guru, but based on my basic knowledge, this should be quite possible.
I'm not familiar with Apple iOS - can't say if something similar can be imposed there by installing an app.
Of course google and apple will scream - but who gives a rat's Musharraf ?
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
This by itself is not a problem - meaning the ownership of the OS. Like @cyrano elaborated in his post, AOSP - Android Open Source Project is the source. Google's version of andoid (and for that matter chrome) are built on top of open source projects.Pratyush wrote:My biggest concern is about the near monopoly enjoyed by Android devices in India.
How do we break it?
Our govt has a linux distro - BOSS - https://bosslinux.in
We could definitely do a version fo android in similar manner. However, there are two other easier options (relatively speaking) imo.
1) Mobile Device Management (MDM) - a famous one is intune (from MS) that corporations use to enforce/secure their corporate device policies
2) National Firewall and/or Proxy server - to centrally control info flow
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
This wont work and has been proven time and again. The strength and lock in of Android is not due to the OS , it is because of the services in top of it. In other words, it is the google play services that gets installed on it. That is a separate package from AOSP, and is not open source and fully controlled by Google. Others have tried it , most notable is Amazon and it has failed.
App designers will not bother putting their app on your services or application store as there is no benefit just another hassle. And without an app library or store with useful apps, you are dead in the water as Microsoft learnt the hard way with their OS.
App designers will not bother putting their app on your services or application store as there is no benefit just another hassle. And without an app library or store with useful apps, you are dead in the water as Microsoft learnt the hard way with their OS.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
In other news Shell has thrown in the towel and said it wont buy Russian oil and has apologised for good measure…
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Neela
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Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
https://www.reuters.com/business/russia ... ce=twitter
Russia proposes nationalising foreign-owned factories that shut operations
For the corporates, this is a asset write-off. And Russia gets capacity for free. Now if this makes its way into a investment policies and legally binding in the country of operations, and if we add a penalty clause, it would make corporates think. Yes, corporates can chose other destinations more favorable but market access + logistics for them is also important.
Objective here is to not penalize corporates but ensure they dont get dragged by geopolitics. It should be kept separate as civilized folk would do.
Russia proposes nationalising foreign-owned factories that shut operations
For the corporates, this is a asset write-off. And Russia gets capacity for free. Now if this makes its way into a investment policies and legally binding in the country of operations, and if we add a penalty clause, it would make corporates think. Yes, corporates can chose other destinations more favorable but market access + logistics for them is also important.
Objective here is to not penalize corporates but ensure they dont get dragged by geopolitics. It should be kept separate as civilized folk would do.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
We need to see the position of revised Indian companies act in this context. Something that I haven't done.
Secondly, in the Indian context, the contract act is clear that in the event of wars between India and any other nation any commercial contracts between the entities on India and other nation will not be enforceable in India.
But the most important issue in in case of factory nationalisation as Russia has proposed is the supply chain management. Along with the intellectual capacity to run the factory.
For example, Nissan is saying that in view of logistical difficulty they will no longer be able to assemble cars in Russia. That is different from outright pulling out. In the absence of supply chain management capabilities. Even the nationalised factory will not be able to produce the item's required.
Secondly, in the Indian context, the contract act is clear that in the event of wars between India and any other nation any commercial contracts between the entities on India and other nation will not be enforceable in India.
But the most important issue in in case of factory nationalisation as Russia has proposed is the supply chain management. Along with the intellectual capacity to run the factory.
For example, Nissan is saying that in view of logistical difficulty they will no longer be able to assemble cars in Russia. That is different from outright pulling out. In the absence of supply chain management capabilities. Even the nationalised factory will not be able to produce the item's required.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
There are other car and truck mfgrs in Russia, and you also have Russian military vehicle ecosystem. They have sufficient talent, parts suppliers and supply chains to takeover the nationalised companies and hobble along. When the future is a Russia more isolated than during Cold War, they don't need to make world class products for domestic market or export. Putin doesn't care, he has enough German limousines and 4WDs to last his lifetime.
See thats the trick against sanctions. They work as long as you are trying to function within the West's System and keep getting frustrated. If you don't care for it and are able to disengage, you can surely survive and limp along for decades and slowly get stronger.
Russian people have tasted some western consumerism but not western freedom to do what want with your life and speak freely. They are still brainwashed and moulded by an authoritarian and oppressive regime, though without the underpinning of communist ideology. They will grumble but fall in line. No revolution unless engineered and heavily supported from outside. And Putin won't let that happen.
If the same sanctions were applied on India, we will have a lot more trouble because we always had freedom and have tasted consumerism. So yes, India can find work arounds against sanctions like Russia did, but won't be able to keep its 1.3B people in line if we disengage with the West.
See thats the trick against sanctions. They work as long as you are trying to function within the West's System and keep getting frustrated. If you don't care for it and are able to disengage, you can surely survive and limp along for decades and slowly get stronger.
Russian people have tasted some western consumerism but not western freedom to do what want with your life and speak freely. They are still brainwashed and moulded by an authoritarian and oppressive regime, though without the underpinning of communist ideology. They will grumble but fall in line. No revolution unless engineered and heavily supported from outside. And Putin won't let that happen.
If the same sanctions were applied on India, we will have a lot more trouble because we always had freedom and have tasted consumerism. So yes, India can find work arounds against sanctions like Russia did, but won't be able to keep its 1.3B people in line if we disengage with the West.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
China will make a killing if this current trend continues. Cheap gas and oil. Strong manufacturing base.
Europe will soon wake up and see their industries getting decimated in world market.
Europe will soon wake up and see their industries getting decimated in world market.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
One of the biggest weapon US might have against India, is the IT sector work force, who either work in US companies or mainly work for US clients. If there is even a fraction of it being fired , it will cause an upheaval. They may not necessarily go against the govt, but just imagine, the plight of homes destroyed. Probably in 98 IT force was much lesser
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Automation is driving some parts of this already. However this won't be so easy.rkirankr wrote:One of the biggest weapon US might have against India, is the IT sector work force, who either work in US companies or mainly work for US clients. If there is even a fraction of it being fired , it will cause an upheaval. They may not necessarily go against the govt, but just imagine, the plight of homes destroyed. Probably in 98 IT force was much lesser
Something massa couldn't do for internal political needs, not sure they would do for foreign policy. Most of this also depends on how much stronger we are able to get as a nation.
Worst case, even something like this happen - there are lots of benefits of reverse brain drain.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
I am talking about job losses in IndiaGShankar wrote:Automation is driving some parts of this already. However this won't be so easy.rkirankr wrote:One of the biggest weapon US might have against India, is the IT sector work force, who either work in US companies or mainly work for US clients. If there is even a fraction of it being fired , it will cause an upheaval. They may not necessarily go against the govt, but just imagine, the plight of homes destroyed. Probably in 98 IT force was much lesser
Something massa couldn't do for internal political needs, not sure they would do for foreign policy. Most of this also depends on how much stronger we are able to get as a nation.
Worst case, even something like this happen - there are lots of benefits of reverse brain drain.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
But the, US companies also need the services. I am a mango here, but one can not suddenly remove services without replacement. I do not think our people and companies can be that easily replaced. Plus, that means a long term animosity with Bharat. I am sure Khan does not want it. However, we can not be sure of the Biden administration.
A bit OT but, slowly I am starting to think this US administration has no strategic vision or even tactical vision for that matter. We do not know the political and policy priorities other than the fact that they are woke in nature. As such most of the woke tach companies will follow the lead of administration. So does other bankers.
Plus if Wall street can make the administration take any decision that seriously changes the world's economic health, it can make a killing in speculative activities. I am sure that is taking place in a very very big way already.
A bit OT but, slowly I am starting to think this US administration has no strategic vision or even tactical vision for that matter. We do not know the political and policy priorities other than the fact that they are woke in nature. As such most of the woke tach companies will follow the lead of administration. So does other bankers.
Plus if Wall street can make the administration take any decision that seriously changes the world's economic health, it can make a killing in speculative activities. I am sure that is taking place in a very very big way already.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Our (meaning off-shore IT staff) job losses would be minimal - especially because no other country has the manpower and skillset to compete here at the scale we are talking about. Even now, so many near shore folks are Indians from mexico and latin america. Because there aren't that many (skills personnel) over there yet - even though there are quite a few companies there.rkirankr wrote: I am talking about job losses in India
And any mass layoffs due to political reasons would also mean US client companies suffering much higher level of losses. That will not "normally" happen.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
What are you talking about? Many US companies will face disastrous consequences if something like that happens on short notice. I work in the fortune 200 Banking sector in Khanland BTW and I will tell you, my company along with many of the competitors has business-critical IT support relying on Indian IT corporations. Given all the curbs they did to bring in IT folks here, there is quite a large workforce in India who do the support work.rkirankr wrote:One of the biggest weapon US might have against India, is the IT sector work force, who either work in US companies or mainly work for US clients. If there is even a fraction of it being fired , it will cause an upheaval. They may not necessarily go against the govt, but just imagine, the plight of homes destroyed. Probably in 98 IT force was much lesser
Given that we have donor-infested politicos in DC such things cannot simply happen. Truth to be told US - India's embrace for the past 20 years is quite dramatic. It will hurt both countries to untangle it for geopolitical reasons. If they start doing it, it will have to take a long time and will happen policy by policy. It cannot work like how it happened with the Russians.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
+1 , as an example my employer cannot make profits on ANY project if we do not deploy resources based in India. The entire business model will collapse. This is true for all the big MNCs ( IBM, Accenture, Big 4, Cap Gemini and so on)
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Tesla is being asked to switch off cars in Russia!!!
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
If that happens, it is the deathknell of Tesla in China and other emerging markets. No country will allow such kill switch. Who is asking Tesla to turn off the cars in Russia?vinod wrote:Tesla is being asked to switch off cars in Russia!!!
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 27067.htmlhgupta wrote:If that happens, it is the deathknell of Tesla in China and other emerging markets. No country will allow such kill switch. Who is asking Tesla to turn off the cars in Russia?vinod wrote:Tesla is being asked to switch off cars in Russia!!!
I doubt he will do it. But then, they have sanctioned whatever possible.
Nowadays, most new cars are so computerised that a simple update can stop the cars in its track.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
Yes, but except Tesla AFAIK no car automatically downloads and installs updates over the N/W or has access lock/unlock from the cloud. There were accidental lock outs of some Tesla drivers due to IT problems recently. So Tesla can do it if they wish. Not sure if others can do so quickly and silently.
Re: Weaponizing Corporations & Trade - Countermeasures
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-03-10/
Agencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.
India can certainly supply Sukhoi components !!
Agencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.
India can certainly supply Sukhoi components !!