Afghanistan News & Discussion

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jul 2014 01:41

Ahmedzais are Waziris and close cousins of Utmanzais. And belong to bigger tribe of Battanis to whom the Ghilzais and Lodis are kinfolk.

Looks like Taliban has won for these are non-Durrani Pasthuns.

In other words finally Ahmed Shah Durrani has been overthrown.

Oalf Caroe must be turning in his grave!!!!

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 10 Jul 2014 02:08

LVT- Low Value Target.

I do not have access to B&N anymore but Carlotta Gall's book will provide a good reliable recording of the Taliban uprising after 9/11 and the interactions between the various players and how the ISI hoodwinked the Americans.

Question is what will the Tajiks do now, and more importantly will Ghani try to come to an understanding with Pakistan like Sardar Daud Khan was supposedly (according to Paks) coming to with ZAB in the early 70s. More importantly Afghanistan has stabilized to the extent that one person will not be able to overturn their FP disregarding decades of distrust with the Pakis. If he does so, he will become another Shah Shuja.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jul 2014 02:47

I think US enabled a Ghilzai to come to power in Afghanistan upending the Durrani monopoly on power since Ahmed Shah Durrani/Abdali.

Talibans are mostly Ghilzai with a few Durranis.

So Ghani will not face or rather will see reduced Taliban ire.

Daud was a Durrani who overthrew his nephew Zahir Shah.

Yes what will Tajiks do? As Uzbegs have been accomodated via Dostum
Tajiks are the more settled Afghans.

*Historically Ghilzais looked to Dilli while Durranis looked to Tehran.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 10 Jul 2014 03:08

Coming back to the Paki Taliban in the containers, I remember reading in BRF at that time that Dostam let several other thugs go and that the ISI has an IOU for DOstam on its ledger for this favor.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 Jul 2014 15:33

From NightWatch for the night of Jul 09, 2014

Parallel government emerging. The Governor of Balkh Province in northern Afghanistan said today that Dr. Abdullah is the legitimate president of Afghanistan and declared loyalty to him. He warned President Karzai to stop meddling in the political process.

Comment: Balkh, whose capital is Mazar-i-Sharif, is one of the most disciplined and prosperous provinces. It is the fourth largest city in Afghanistan and is the commercial hub of the north because of its road and railroad links to Uzbekistan.

Governor Atta Muhammad Nur is responsible for Balkh's success and is one of the most powerful governors in Afghanistan. He also is a famous Tajik military commander/warlord who served the late Tajik hero Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. Atta Muhammad led Northern Alliance operations against the Taliban in the Balkh area.

His backing of Abdullah is a direct challenge to Karzai who backed Ghani, at least during the run-off election. Atta Muhammad has the stature, resources and the following in the north to be a presidential candidate in his own right. His declaration will encourage Abdullah's supporters in forming a separate government. It raises the stakes, polarizes the tribes and makes resolution of the election dispute much more difficult. With Atta Muhammad's backing, the north could secede and survive.{Wow}

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Jul 2014 18:04

Gurus Here,

Is the Wakhan Corridor traditionally part of the provinces where Northern Alliance is strong or is it a Pashtun dominated area?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Jul 2014 18:08

^^^ Sorry, ignore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_pre ... tion,_2014

The map makes it ample clear that the Wakhan corridor is part of the areas where Northern Alliance has absolute majority. So if afghanistan does indeed split, this key corridor will be in the right hands. Only if India can get gilgit/baltistan back.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 10 Jul 2014 18:17

Wakhan is Kirghiz dominated. They relocated here to escape the turmoil during the Basmachi uprising in the 1920s.

Likewise for the Tajiks and Turkomen pop of Afghanistan.

A primer on the Kirghiz of Wakhan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jul 2014 21:32

SSridhar wrote:From NightWatch for the night of Jul 09, 2014
Parallel government emerging. The Governor of Balkh Province in northern Afghanistan said today that Dr. Abdullah is the legitimate president of Afghanistan and declared loyalty to him. He warned President Karzai to stop meddling in the political process.

Comment: Balkh, whose capital is Mazar-i-Sharif, is one of the most disciplined and prosperous provinces. It is the fourth largest city in Afghanistan and is the commercial hub of the north because of its road and railroad links to Uzbekistan.

Governor Atta Muhammad Nur is responsible for Balkh's success and is one of the most powerful governors in Afghanistan. He also is a famous Tajik military commander/warlord who served the late Tajik hero Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. Atta Muhammad led Northern Alliance operations against the Taliban in the Balkh area.

His backing of Abdullah is a direct challenge to Karzai who backed Ghani, at least during the run-off election. Atta Muhammad has the stature, resources and the following in the north to be a presidential candidate in his own right. His declaration will encourage Abdullah's supporters in forming a separate government. It raises the stakes, polarizes the tribes and makes resolution of the election dispute much more difficult. With Atta Muhammad's backing, the north could secede and survive.{Wow}

SS, Thats not surprising. Refer to your own presentation on creation of Afghanistan.

- Ahmed Shah Abdali/Durrani cobbled the state from the vestiges of Mughal and Persian Empires. He incoroprated, Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbeg and Persian areas.
- Abdr Rehman ceded NWFP to British to create modern Afghanistan.
So its not a natural state but a created state. Then the British and Russians kept it as a buffer state and thus preserved its boundaries.

This rigging might unravel Afghanistan and revert back the areas to historical regions.

I find interesting that Atta Nur charged Karzai with the division ratehr than the true Ghani backers.
IOW the rigging was possible with the govt machinery in place under Karzai. Karzai must have succumbed to Pashtun loyalties to back a Ghilzai Pasthun to the leadership position.
If the election were fair Abdullah^2 would have emerged the winner.

Pashtuns (Ghilazai and Durrani) must be on high octane stuff from Brookingzais to think that after emerging from the brutal 40 year Afghanistan civil war, the non-Pasthuns will submit to Pashtun overlordship by deceit.

- Maybe this is Ralph Peter's map underway by default.

- Recall Blackwill Plan B was to make the Southern Pasthun region the defacto good Taliban area.

Is that what we are seeing?

A repeat of fall of Saigon without the helicopters flying away?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Jul 2014 04:43

Looks like a binding recount under US supervision has been agreed to.

Not that US will be impartial!!!

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 17 Jul 2014 09:42

Ints interesting that US is recommending a parliamentary form of govt and the people involved 've notionally agreed. So Af will have a president and a PM and such and the current laws of the existing presidential setup etc will be vastly relaxed and the new president will have almost devolved a lot of his powers. Pretty much like the Georgian model which happened a few months back, if I need to use an analogy.
So who will become what? If its a powerful PM that US is gunning for, joker Ghani will be PM while Abdullah^2 will be a notional president. Time should tell.

Its surprising that they stuffed ballots so childishly. A few in our team did the analysis and its not just fishy... but downright ridiculous.

E.g., in province Paktika (Wikipedia: population 414,000, with 96% Pashtuns and 2% Uzbeks) a total of 404,562 votes were cast - up from 181,079 in the first round.
http://results.iec.org.af/en/final results/presidentialbyprovince

(On top of that, consider the age distribution in Afghanistan: 0-14 years - 42.6% of total, http://www.indexmundi.com/afghanis tan/age_structure.html )

Irrititatingly useless idiots. If one plans to cheat, the least one does is cover the tracks. Sadly, there aren't a lot of sensible cheats in the province or the country at large.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Jul 2014 20:07

vijaykarthik, Maybe they wanted to be found out to annul the elections and bring in chaos?

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 18 Jul 2014 06:54

^^ this kind of massive obvious errors will not be what the US wants, though. Now, I really have my doubts. Is the US going to stay back or what? Pak yday requested the US to consider staying back in Af for a little longer. this kind of contradiction by massive schoolboy fudging vs other countries asking them to stay, seems unnerving. It does look like the US does want to stay back and if that were the case and if they were also involved in this kind of school boy fudging, I don't really know what to say of the people involved. Doesn't add up at all.

So, its more likely that Karzai doesn't know his addition properly. And stuffed the boxes to he gills. As he zimply does not want Abdullah^2 to become president. I will not be surprised if he is involved in the behind the scenes mooting of parliamentary system of devolved powers too.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Jul 2014 12:33

NightWatch for the night of 24 July 2014

Afghanistan: The voter fraud election audit did not resume as planned on the 24th because the presidential candidates and the election commission have no common definition of what is a fraudulent ballot. The commission said the audit will resume in a few days.

Comment: This audit might never resume. If it does, it will not be completed because neither candidate will accept the other's electoral victory. For example, the audit workers for candidate Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai walked out last week because workers for candidate Dr. Abdullah were disqualifying too many ballots. A political settlement between the two candidates and their supporters will come, if it comes at all, from some channel other than the audit.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 25 Jul 2014 16:20

American view of Indian and Chinese concerns about Afghanistan:
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2014/07/24/ma ... and-china/

IMO, if India and China have common goals, there might be some room for joint effort.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 25 Jul 2014 18:45

What a mess, so this whole election was a wash. If they run-off was not there, then the 1st round would have been rigged. Afghanistan needs to be divided, there is no other solution to this whole mess.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 25 Jul 2014 18:48

Afghanistan is the inspiration for the state of Pakistan. Sooner this happens, the better it is for the subcontinent.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Jul 2014 19:19

In a country as complex as Afghanistan where literacy is poor, infrastructure is non-existent, faith in democracy is low, war-lords are rampant, fundamentalist clergy rule the roost, ethnic and clannish divisions are many and irreconcilabe, conducting even one election is a mind boggling affair. They cannot have the luxury of a run-off election in a second round. They should have had a different mechanism to determine the winner.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 25 Jul 2014 20:17

SSridhar wrote:In a country as complex as Afghanistan where literacy is poor, infrastructure is non-existent, faith in democracy is low, war-lords are rampant, fundamentalist clergy rule the roost, ethnic and clannish divisions are many and irreconcilabe, conducting even one election is a mind boggling affair. They cannot have the luxury of a run-off election in a second round. They should have had a different mechanism to determine the winner.

Sridhar Sir,

Isn't there a stark difference in the socio-economic conditions between the northern and pashthun areas of Afghanistan. Wont the Northern Areas turn out to be succesful vibrant democracy with some meaningful economy (with all the natural resources, sparse population and access to central asia and willing partners like India, iran etc..). Why should they bear the tag of a war torn country because of the taliban controlled areas in the south.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Jul 2014 21:11

^And sharing border with pakistan, epicenter of terrorism, further south!

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Aug 2014 13:02

From NightWatch for the night of 31 July 2014

Afghanistan: Supposedly the voter fraud audit will resume on 2 August.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 01 Aug 2014 15:24

SSridhar wrote:They should have had a different mechanism to determine the winner.

"First past the post" is also not a viable proposition. That will lead to widespread accusations (of collusions) and a fragmented society leading to civil strife (what else in new with the afghans?). Pakis are known to make full use of this confusion in the past.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Aug 2014 20:52

Looks like Taliban made a successful lone wolf in sheep's clothing attack on US soldiers.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 05 Aug 2014 21:56

U.S. General Is Killed in Attack at Afghan Base

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 05 Aug 2014 23:39

A US major general and a german brigadier general are among the casualties.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Aug 2014 23:41

Is US still trying to fix Karzai govt?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Aug 2014 11:55

anupmisra wrote:
SSridhar wrote:They should have had a different mechanism to determine the winner.
"First past the post" is also not a viable proposition.

May be. I am not favouring one over the other. All I am saying is that when conducting even one election is such a nightmare, the Afghans cannot have the luxury of run-offs.

One solution might be that the electors also mark a second choice in the ballots that could also be counted in if needed thus avoiding a run-off. There is no guarantee that it could still lead to 50%+1.

If nothing works then the time is up for deconstructing Afghanistan.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Aug 2014 12:01

From NightWatch for the night of Aug 06, 2014

Afghanistan: An Afghan soldier shot and killed a US major general and wounded at least 14 other military men, including five British, seven Americans and generals from Germany and Afghanistan. A late report indicates two others have died.

A U.S. official said the gunman fired on the foreign soldiers using a light machinegun. Afghanistan's Defense Ministry described him as a "terrorist in army uniform." The U.S. and German generals were on a visit to Marshal Fahim National Defense University, which is an officers' academy modeled on the UK's Sandhurst.

Comment: The routine nature of the visit heightens the terror effect of the killings. This was not a combat action. The American general was not a combat soldier. He was the deputy commanding general for the Combined Security Transition Command, involved in preparations for the withdrawal of coalition troops at the end of the year.

The Afghan narrative is that the shooter was a Taliban infiltrator disguised as an Afghan soldier. That is possible, but it is equally plausible that the shooter simply heard the call of Allah to kill the general, who he might have mistaken for British. If the shooter was an infiltrator, then British security at the school needs a thorough overhaul. The shooter was on guard duty.

A second point is the reasoning that says shoot and harass the foreigners as they depart. Sound judgment, if not sound strategy, would recommend that the Taliban and Afghans in general do everything they could to facilitate and accelerate the departure of the coalition forces and husband their resources for the next phase of Afghanistan's security development..

However, that strategy would deprive the Taliban of the honor of humiliating the foreigners as they leave. That explains the recent spate of large scale attacks against district centers last month.

The tribal victory narrative features the theme of driving the foreigners out and debasing them as they left. That is what the mujahedin claim they did to the Soviet forces and what they say their ancestors did to the British before them. The Soviets had to fight their way out, on the road from Kabul to Termez on the Amu Darya. The departing coalition forces should expect a similar set of challenges, especially as the withdrawal quickens later this year.

This is the bloody nose that the Taliban want to inflict upon the US & NATO forces, helped by their Pakistani handlers and sources. The US simply has not learnt anything about the Taliban and the Pakistanis.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Aug 2014 20:42

Nightwatch wrote: ..The Afghan narrative is that the shooter was a Taliban infiltrator disguised as an Afghan soldier. That is possible, but it is equally plausible that the shooter simply heard the call of Allah to kill the general, who he might have mistaken for British. If the shooter was an infiltrator, then British security at the school needs a thorough overhaul. The shooter was on guard duty.

conflicts with

The tribal victory narrative features the theme of driving the foreigners out and debasing them as they left. That is what the mujahedin claim they did to the Soviet forces and what they say their ancestors did to the British before them. The Soviets had to fight their way out, on the road from Kabul to Termez on the Amu Darya. The departing coalition forces should expect a similar set of challenges, especially as the withdrawal quickens later this year.

...

Most of the Pashtun mujehddin became the Taliban. Fundamental fact.

Not all Afghans hate the US intervention.

Most Taliban do hate the US intervention.

A simple "quo bono"would have helped the analysis.

The killer was Taliban as it is they who benefit from the publicity.

Sad when NW makes a fundamental error.

And to blame British for lack of security at an Afghan run military academy is wrong.
No point in making more enemies.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Aug 2014 18:45

Bruce Riedel on Charlie Rose
http://www.hulu.com/watch/669682

Discussion about Afghanistan with Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow and Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project.

Season 22 Episode 239 | Aired on 08/01/2014 | Not Rated | 55:03 |

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 08 Aug 2014 20:29

Very interesting that the 2 rivals have agreed to accept whatever turns up and not contest. However, there will a chief executive post for the one who loses and power will be shared while ministries will be split too. Besides, there is also talk of a PM.

Will there be HR, Communication, Facilities / Estate operations too?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Aug 2014 15:17

Obama's Pentagon Covered Up War Crimes in Afghanistan, Says Amnesty International

The human-rights group reports the U.S. military systematically ignored evidence of torture and unlawful killings in Afghanistan as recently as last year.

The U.S. military has systematically covered up or disregarded “abundant and compelling evidence” of war crimes, torture, and unlawful killings in Afghanistan as recently as last year, according to a report by Amnesty International published today in Kabul.

The human rights organization alleges that the U.S. military has routinely failed to properly investigate reports of criminal behavior and, in some instances, tampered with evidence to conceal wrongdoing. On the rare occasions when servicemen are held to account, the report found that the compromised military justice system seldom secured justice for the victims of enforced disappearances, killings, and abuse that included torture.

“President Obama has admitted that ‘we tortured’ people in the past—but this is not the Bush administration, this is torture happening under Obama,” said Joanne Mariner, the author of the report.

While torture and other abuses by the CIA and the military were sanctioned by the Bush administration, Obama entered office vowing to end such practices. There have been a number of prosecutions and punishments of military units that have committed crimes and atrocities in Afghanistan under Obama, but Amnesty says the White House has to do more to ensure his policy changes are respected in the field.

A survivor of one of the most egregious assaults on civilians detailed in the report told The Daily Beast he had been forced to listen to the last gasps and sobs of his dying daughter, who was seven months pregnant, while the Americans threatened to kill anyone who moved. “She was calling out for help, maybe she wanted to share her last words before she left us forever,” said Muhammad Tahir, a civil servant.

Four years after two pregnant women, two criminal justice officials, and a teenage girl were shot dead during a party to mark the birth of a grandson in Khataba Village, Paktia Province, Tahir and his family are still waiting to be interviewed as part of an investigation the U.S. military promised to carry out.

“There is a shocking lack of accountability for the killing of Afghan civilians by U.S. forces, including civilians killed in circumstances that raise concerns about war crimes,” said Mariner. “There is very strong evidence that war crimes were carried out.”

The report, titled “Left in the Dark,” includes detailed investigations of 10 incidents in which at least 140 civilians, including 50 children, were killed in dubious circumstances. In the aftermath of nine of these, eyewitnesses and families report that no one was ever interviewed by the U.S. military.

A Pentagon spokesman did not deny the allegations in the report but reiterated U.S. policy on torture and war crimes. “The Department of Defense does not permit its personnel to engage in acts of torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment of any person in its custody,” said Maj. Bradlee Avots.

According to the Amnesty report, a Special Forces unit had raided the house on February 12, 2010. Five people were killed, some by sniper fire, some at closer range. When the Americans realized that the pregnant women and children they had killed were unlikely to be insurgents, witnesses said they began to remove the evidence of what they had done.

“When they understood they had hit the wrong place, they started pulling out the bullets from the dead bodies with their hands and their knives,” Tahir recalled. “America, the killer nation, we will never forgive you.”

The day after the assault, ISAF announced that forces had stumbled upon the dead women after a firefight with insurgents. In the following days they would go on to brief the press with a series of lurid but inaccurate stories suggesting that there was evidence of honor killings or execution-style murders.

“The immediate effort to cover up what had been done suggested that they realized it was a crime,” said Mariner. “And the changing story over time definitely suggests a cover-up.”

Amnesty says Tahir’s family is just one of thousands who have waited in vain for justice for their missing, dead, or severely injured loved ones. Foreign forces in Afghanistan have immunity from local prosecution, leaving the U.S. military itself, under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, to investigate and try American troops when they are accused of criminal acts.

Among the most disturbing allegations are claims of forcible disappearance, torture, and extrajudicial killings carried out by a rogue unit in Wardak province from the fall of 2012. “We interviewed a former detainee that had a really horrific story of just raw torture,” Mariner said. “It’s not only the testimony of this former detainee but a lot of bodies were found showing horrendous crimes of torture—people missing body parts and people whose corpses were badly mutilated.”

One of 125 victims and eyewitnesses interviewed by Amnesty in compiling this report was Qandi Agha, 51, an employee at the provincial Ministry of Culture, who says he was captured by U.S. forces who broke into his home and spirited him away to a dark wooden cell. “On the first night,” he said, “the Americans told me they were going to try 14 different types of torture on me. If I survived, they said, they’d let me go.”

He said he suffered electric shocks, beatings, simulated drowning, hanging from the ceiling, partial burial in freezing conditions, and the extraordinary and degrading torment of having a length of string tied tightly around his penis. “They left the string around my penis for four days. My abdomen was bulging. I wasn’t able to pee for those four days,” he said.

He was lucky. He says half of the men he was incarcerated with did not survive the ordeal, and he claims to have watched one man be beaten to death by a redheaded American commando.

The U.S. authorities first became aware of allegations against the Special Forces team operating out of Combat Outpost Nerkh in December 2012. The American-led miliary coalition denied the charges of abuse. But by February 2013, the allegations had become so vehement that the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, ordered Special Forces to leave the province.

“The U.S. knew about complaints, and that obviously raises concerns as to why this wasn’t stopped sooner, because the abuses went on. There were people who were disappeared as late as February” in 2013, said Mariner.

Amnesty says relying on an internal justice system is not conducive to thorough investigations of alleged crimes; the commanders whose duty it would be to report incidents may be implicated, and there is a heavy reliance on the word of the accused and their colleagues rather than independent witnesses.

The military insists that civilian deaths are investigated whenever allegations of unlawful killing are made. “In accordance with standard practice, the United States has investigated U.S. military personnel and civilian personnel, including contractors, for civilian casualties that are alleged to be not incident to lawful military operations. Investigation results can and have previously led to both criminal convictions, as well as adverse administrative actions,” said Avots.

For Tahir, who lost his pregnant daughter, and many more like him, those words will ring hollow.

“We lost five members of the family and about 20 kids became orphans,” he said, in a tearful phone interview. “What was our crime? Can the Americans tell us?”

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Aug 2014 07:01

Pakislami Barra Haarami

KABUL: Ashraf Ghani, one of two candidates competing to become Afghanistan’s president by next month, said Tuesday that the deadline for finishing an election recount is slipping and that a U.S.-brokered agreement for the rivals to form a joint government afterward does not mean the winner will fully share power with the loser.Speaking to foreign journalists at his fortified compound in the capital, Ghani appeared to be trying to tamp down a surge of discontent among his supporters and allies, many of whom are reportedly upset that he agreed under U.S. pressure to accept a full recount from the country’s troubled runoff election in June and form a “unity” government with his rival, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah. On Friday, Ghani restated those pledges during a visit by Secretary of State John F. Kerry. But on Tuesday, he sought to clarify that he has not agreed to a power-sharing agreement with Abdullah. He said the winner will appoint the loser “by decree” as a chief executive to serve “at the discretion of the president.” Abdullah has demanded more authority if he loses.Ghani also said Tuesday that while he “hoped” the audit could be done in time to have the new president attend a NATO summit in early September, no inauguration date has been set because of “technical uncertainties” with the slow-going audit of 8.1 million votes. He said both he and Abdullah will attend the summit, considered key to winning new foreign aid for the ailing Afghan economy.
Ghani finished ahead in the runoff but accepted the recount after Abdullah, who came in first in an initial round of presidential voting in April, charged that there had been massive fraud. Ghani was careful Tuesday not to claim victory. But he spoke in a distinctly presidential tone as he laid out a wide-ranging policy agenda for the next government, from banking and anti-corruption initiatives to the rights of women and Taliban prisoners.“There will be no honeymoon,” said Ghani, 64, a cerebral former finance minister and World Bank official, describing the Afghan economy as being “in deep recession” approaching depression. He said running for president “appealed to me precisely because it was so difficult.”Ghani said he was determined to build a credible government and change the country’s “winner-take-all” culture to a cooperative one. Blaming Afghanistan’s quarrelsome political elite for 300 years of government dysfunction and conflict, he vowed to avoid such polarization. “I’m sick and tired of blood,” he said.
But Ghani made it clear that if he becomes president — which seems likely unless close to 1 million votes for him are invalidated — he will be fully in charge. “Dual authority is not possible,” he said. “The position of the chief executive will solely depend on the discretion of the president.”

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 21 Aug 2014 16:53

*wrong thread

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Aug 2014 08:59

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mon ... isnt-over/

Just have a look at how Paktika, Khost, Nangarhar etc have been 'influenced'. Massive.

http://2014.afghanistanelectiondata.org ... turnoutpop

Turnout in the 2 provinces are a whopping 400-600% of registered pop there. How?

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 26 Aug 2014 19:10

Karzai Will Leave Office on September 2

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in an attempt to ramp up pressure on presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, declared that he will leave office on September 2. “The Afghan government is totally ready for the inauguration ceremony of the new president on the date of September 2,” the presidential palace said in a statement. The announcement effectively places an ultimatum on the candidates to resolve their disagreements lest Afghanistan find itself without a political head in September. Currently, following an agreement brokered by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, all votes cast in the June 14 run-off election are being audited. Following the audit, the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) will declare a winner.

The original transfer of power, an historic first for Afghanistan, was slated to take place on August 2 but allegations of electoral fraud derailed the original timeline. For the moment, neither candidate seems to be interested in taking a conciliatory stance or yielding to the other. With the results of the audit slated to be released soon, it is possible that tensions could flare up once again, delaying the presidential inauguration even further. According to Omar Zakhilwal, Afghanistan’s finance minister, the current deadlock over the presidential election is costing the Afghan economy ”billions.” As a result of the electoral crisis, both foreign investment and government revenues have fallen, according to a BBC report.

Although the United States managed to broker the agreement that led to mutual acceptance of an audit of all the votes cast in the June 14 elections, it is unknown how the U.S. would react should the candidates continue to disagree about the results of the election following the audit. Once a winner is declared, it is of paramount importance that the losing candidate agree to the result and step aside. A prolonged political crisis will not only have important economic costs for Afghanistan, but could also threaten the country’s longer term stability.

For the United States, the protracted crisis over presidential succession represents a significant challenge to the conclusion of the long-stalled Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). Hamid Karzai was expected to sign the agreement in late 2013 but ultimately refused to do so, arguing that it should be the responsibility of his successor. Earlier this year, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General Joseph F. Dunford Jr., testified that August 2014 was the latest realistic deadline for the agreement’s conclusion from a military logistics point of view. Without the BSA, the United States will have no legal basis with the Afghan government for keeping on a small troop contingency post-2014 for limited training and counter-terrorism purposes. Both Ghani and Abdullah support the BSA and would sign it as president, but the window of opportunity appears smaller than ever.

member_25399 · Post by **member_25399** » 27 Aug 2014 13:05

http://2014.afghanistanelectiondata.org ... turnoutpop

Turnout in the 2 provinces are a whopping 400-600% of registered pop there. How?

Is it a coincidence that Ashraf Ghani has gained mostly in the areas bordering Pak

Pakis must be rejoicing at their act

Compared to the first round his share those areas has increased by leaps and bound.
Between the link is good !!

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 27 Aug 2014 19:53

Candidates walk-out; Afghan election audit disrupted

Afghanistan's disputed presidential election veered further off course on Wednesday after both candidates withdrew their observers from a U.N.-supervised audit of votes that was meant to resolve the crisis.

The crisis over the outcome of the vote has raised the spectre of instability, turmoil and perhaps even another round of fighting in a country already battling a potent Taliban insurgency.

The audit was part of a U.S.-brokered deal to defuse escalating tension between rivals Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, who have both claimed victory in the ballot intended to mark the country's first democratic transfer of power.

"We boycotted the audit process today because it is worthless for us. Let them carry on," Fazel Ahmad Manawi, Abdullah's chief auditor, told Reuters early on Wednesday.

A few hours later, the United Nations asked Ghani's team to withdraw its observers in the interests of fairness and it had agreed, according to a team member, who said the withdrawal was unfair but prudent.

"Today we requested the team of Dr. Ghani to review whether they should participate actively in the process," U.N. deputy chief Nicholas Haysom told reporters on Wednesday.

"Underlying this request was a realization that the audit must not only have integrity, it must be seen to be even-handed by all Afghans," he said.

After a pause on Wednesday morning, the audit resumed in the afternoon, Haysom said, adding he did not expect significant further delays as the audit proceeded without the physical presence of representatives from candidates' teams.

"We continue to urge the return of both candidates to full participation in the process, and we stand ready to address their concerns whether they return or not," he said.

Officials involved in the process say it is likely Ghani would eventually be confirmed president.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has twice flown to Afghanistan since a June 14 run-off vote to defuse tension and push the rivals to agree to cooperate.

U.S. officials stepped in again earlier on Wednesday and held emergency talks with Abdullah, according to a member of his team.

If the rival politicians needed a reminder of the militant threat, Afghan security forces were battling the Taliban for control of the northern province of Kunduz on Wednesday with heavy clashes also reported in parts of the south.

The political crisis and fighting comes at a time of deep anxiety in Afghanistan as the United States, Kabul's biggest aid donor, and other NATO nations withdraw their troops after nearly 13 years of fighting Taliban insurgents.

Chaos as Western forces pull out would be a huge embarrassment for those countries which have spent billions of dollars and lost about 3,500 soldiers in a bid to bring peace and stability.

'NO LEGITIMACY'

Abdullah, a former foreign minister, won a first round vote in April but without a majority needed for outright victory, while preliminary figures showed Ghani, a former finance minister, won the run-off by more than a million votes.

But Abdullah complained of rigging and demanded a recount in which fraudulent votes would be thrown out.

Abdullah's team believe that the more fraudulent votes are thrown out, the better his chances will be of victory but they have complained that the rules of the audit are not strict enough to weed out the invalid ballots.

On Tuesday, Abdullah's team said the United Nations had until Wednesday to accept its demands to tighten the rules for identifying and discarding ballots deemed fraudulent, or else it would drop out of the electoral process.

Outgoing President Hamid Karzai, who is not allowed by the constitution to run again, has urged both candidates to respect the terms of the U.S.-brokered deal.

Officials and diplomats fear a breakdown between the candidates and the power-brokers who have a stake in the process could trigger conflict along ethnic lines.

Former finance minister Ghani is a member of Afghanistan's biggest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, who make up of most the population in the south and east.

Abdullah, is part Pashtun and part ethnic Tajik but draws his support from Tajiks and other smaller minorities, largely in the centre and north.

"More than a million votes are fraudulent," Mohammad Mohaqeq a leader of the Hazara minority and one of Abdullah's vice presidential running mates, told Reuters.

"If these votes are not invalidated, we will never accept any outcome and it will have no legitimacy."

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 28 Aug 2014 01:14

I really miss ShyamD and all the BS he would peddle on BRF. This is his "US-backed" fighting force that will battle the Pakistanis and their disciplined and battle hardened Taliban proxy in Afghanistan. 1/3 of Afghanistan will be gobbled up in a matter of months. India for 10 years bought into the b*llshit of helping out the Afghans. We took in so many of their people who wanted to "study" and are now taking to crime, provided free medical care, helped build infra, etc. and for what? So the Taliban and warlords could reap all the benefits. SS Menon was a bloody joke as a NSA along with the entire upper management of the security establishment for a decade under the Gandhis. Billions in the toilet.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 05 Sep 2014 19:57

Deadlock remains even after audit ends

As the month-long vote auditing process finally comes to an end, the presidential candidates remain in deadlock over a particular issue - the role of the Chief Executive - despite numerous attempts at direct and indirect negotiations.

Both candidates have at times commended the negotiations and expressed hope for their full and successful conclusion. But now, after trying to resolve their differences with the help of a designated committee, face-to-face meets and mediation by foreign diplomats, it is unclear what it will take for the candidates to reach an agreement.

The point of discord between the camps is said to remain what powers the Chief Executive position will have, especially whether or not he will be head of the Council of Ministers. The candidates initially convened a joint committee to discuss the issue, along with others pertaining to their national unity government deal, but the committee was unable to resolve the dispute and sent the matter back to the candidates for negotiation. This week, a smaller joint committee was asked once again to hash out the Chief Executive issue, but failed to come to a consensus. Now, for a second time in a month, the debate has been referred back to the candidates.

Ashraf Ghani’s camp has expressed optimism about an agreement over the Chief Executive, and emphasized that many other disputed subjects had been put to rest through negotiations. “The eight member team that was assigned to discuss particular issues has reached an agreement on a majority of the disputed points except one point,” said Tahir Zuhair, a spokesman for Ghani.

Meanwhile, Abdullah’s team has appeared less hopeful for the negotiations. “Yesterday, the eight member team of negotiators talked for five hours, but with fewer developments, the main issue is still in the same place,” Abdullah spokesman Syed Aqa Fazel Sancharaki said on Friday. “So far the negotiations haven’t led to an outcome...the opposing side is once again trying to waste the time and play,” he added.

Abdullah and his supporters have backed greater authorities for the Chief Executive position than the Ghani camp seems willing to accept. Ghani’s team has gone so far as to suggest giving the Chief Executive the Chair of the Council of Ministers would be unconstitutional.

“One point which is referred to the candidates is the authorities of chief executive, but there is a unanimity of views that urges candidates not to violate the constitution,” said Zuhair.

The candidates are also said to have still not agreed on the release of the election results.

Over the past couple weeks, the candidates and the joint committee met many times. On Thursday, an hour long meeting was held between the candidates. They have also had sit-downs with the United Nations and top U.S. diplomats.