Russia has in principle agreed on the Indian nuclear liability law, paving the way for signing a contract for unit 3 and 4 of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in July, Russian officials said on Tuesday.
The Soviet Union used to command respect on the international stage. It stood toe to toe with the United States. It wielded its influence in the far corners of the globe. Oksana Chernysheva, a first-year journalism student at the International University in Moscow, shares the view of her President, Vladimir Putin: the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster.
“We used to be huge and strong, and then it collapsed,” she said. But what for the 61-year-old Mr Putin amounts to an acute sense of lost glory is for Ms Chernysheva, 18, an opinion based almost entirely on wistful tales handed down by nostalgic parents. She was born five years after the Soviet Union fell apart.
Mr Putin’s moves this year to annex Crimea and to support pro-Russian movements in Ukraine appear to have resonated with a younger generation that has no memory of the Soviet Union but yearns for its power.
According to the Levada Centre, an independent polling organisation in Moscow, the President’s high approval rating among young people tops even his numbers among an older generation that remembers the empire and views Crimea and Ukraine as essentially Russian.
People 18 to 24 years old – the youngest group among 1,600 people surveyed in late May – backed Mr Putin more than any other age bracket, at 86 per cent, said Karina Pipiya, a spokeswoman for the centre.
The image of a vast military power that commanded global respect is particularly appealing to Ms Chernysheva. “I believe that the world should be afraid of us,” she said, sipping a hot chocolate in a café near her university. “To be afraid means to respect.”
On campuses, anti-Putin students and faculty members are outnumbered, but they also face being harassed for their opposition views.
“It’s so easy to go to jail in Russia,” said Chernysheva’s friend Anton Kusakin, 20, who worked for opposition leader Alexei Navalny last year. Putin’s annexation of Crimea “spoiled everything”, he said.
And what happens when the Americans inevitably slap sanctions on us again? Let's see how those Apaches, C-17's and P-8's perform without spares. We're going to end up with a significant chunk of our military capability neutralized and will be falling back on all that Russian junk you're so dismissive of. When that happens, we're going to feel pretty stupid about the $20 billion we wasted on American military hardware that will never actually be used in the defense of the nation. At that point we'll realize we might as well have just poured that $20 billion down a black hole.Cosmo_R wrote:Times have changed. Russian <> FSU. Instead of friendship prices we are getting rip-off prices for not for prime time products that can be sold to others using us as venture capital.
C-17s, P-8Is, C-130Js not a favor to US but a much needed capability to our military with less mission risk here and now.
Petr Topychkanov
The end of the UN Security Council mandate for the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan will mean a lesser role in that country for external players and a greater role for its neighbors. For Russia, the most important partners in this area — apart from the Central Asian republics — are India and Pakistan, both of which have clearly defined interests in Afghanistan. Moscow has already launched dialogue with both countries on this issue. What is the precise nature of that dialogue? Which of the three countries’ interests in Afghanistan coincide, and which don’t? What forms of cooperation are they pursuing, or can potentially pursue in the future? All these questions require particular attention.
The Role of South Asian States in Russia’s Foreign Policy Strategy
Russia has several major policy documents in which the South Asian countries are given a prominent role. The 2008 Russian Foreign Policy Concept lists Russia’s interests and objectives, and makes particular mention of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in connection with those objectives. In its relations with India, Russia pursues its objectives on a bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral level:
“Russia pursues a closer strategic partnership with India. Its strategy is to strengthen cooperation on pressing international issues and to build closer mutually beneficial bilateral ties in all areas, with a particular emphasis on trade and economic cooperation.”
“Russia shares China’s and India’s interest in establishing effective foreign-policy and economic cooperation in the trilateral Russia-India-China format.”
Since Russia “attaches great importance to improving the governance of global development and establishing a self-regulating international system”, it intends to “step up cooperation in such formats as the G8, as well as its dialogue with traditional partners, including the BRIC Trio (Russia, India, and China) and the BRIC Quartet (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).
A combination of bilateral and multilateral approaches is also mentioned in connection with the declared intention of pursuing closer relations with “Pakistan and other leading regional powers”. The Foreign Policy Concept, however, does not specify the objectives of Russian foreign policy with regard to Pakistan.
The Concept states that the crisis in Afghanistan represents a security threat on the southern borders of the CIS. Russia’s interests in Afghanistan, according to that Concept, are as follows:
“Neutralizing the terrorist and narcotics threat originating in Afghanistan.”
“Preventing destabilization in Central Asia and the Transcaucasus.”
“Achieving a lasting and fair political settlement in that country based on the principle of respect for the rights and interests of all the ethnic groups living there.”
“Post-conflict rebuilding of Afghanistan as a sovereign and peaceful nation.”1
The Russian Foreign Policy Concept demonstrates that relations with the three South Asian countries are independent though sometimes closely related areas of Russian foreign policy, which have yet to become parts of a coherent regional strategy. The same is true of the 2013 edition of the Russian Foreign Policy Concept. As far as Russian policy in South Asia is concerned, the only notable difference between the 2013 edition and the previous version is that it contains no mention of Pakistan2, which may suggest that the country is now playing a somewhat lesser role in Russia’s strategies.
Russia’s general approaches to South Asia and the neighbor ing regions are also spelt out in the Russian National Security Strategy to 2020. The document says that the situation in Afghanistan and conflicts in several South Asian countries will have a negative impact on the international situation in the medium term.3
Another document that highlights Russian strategies is President Vladimir Putin’s policy article “Russia and the Changing World”. The article states that Russia is “an inalienable and integral part of Greater Europe”, and that the country also aims to capitalize on growth in Asia Pacific, especially in China and India. The president dwells at length on Russia’s relations with China, but he devotes only two sentences to India, saying that the country is Russia’s privileged strategic partner, and that Russian-Indian relations will be important for the formation of a multi-centric world. The article contains no mention of Pakistan. As for Afghanistan, the following detail attracts attention. President Putin says that terrorism and “heroin aggression” are the main threats originating in Afghanistan. But when he writes about Russia’s interests in that country, he does not mention the anti-terrorist effort. According to President Putin, Russia’s interests include a stable and peaceful development of Afghanistan, and an effective campaign against drugs.4
On the whole, the following general conclusions can be made on the basis of Russian policy documents about the role of South Asia in Russian foreign policy:
For the next decade, or even longer, the South Asia region will remain a source of such threats to Russian security as political instability, international conflicts, and the threat of terrorism and drugs.
As part of its response to those challenges, Russia intends to pursue closer bilateral relations with South Asian countries and play an active role in multilateral political formats.
Integration processes in South Asia are regarded as very relevant for Russia and its economy, with India seen as the main engine of growth in South Asia.
Russia has clearly defined priorities in South Asia. India is Russia’s privileged strategic partner in the region, Afghanistan a close neighbor, and Pakistan a leading regional power on a par with Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Russia’s efforts to counter regional security threats using military instruments are based on the following principles:
Russia intends to ensure an adequate level of military presence in the region.
The Russian Navy will maintain its presence in the Indian Ocean on a periodic basis, probably using the ships assigned to the Black Sea Fleet, which became part of the Southern Operational Strategic Command in 2010.5
According to the 2010 Russian Military Doctrine, Russia will "contribute troops to the Collective Rapid Reaction Force of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to ensure a rapid response to military threats facing the CSTO members and to achieve other objectives set out by the CSTO Collective Security Council. These forces will be used in accordance with the procedures outlined in the Agreement on the Procedure of Rapid Deployment, Application, and Comprehensive Support of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force of the Central Asian Collective Security Region."6
For the most part, the policies Russia pursues in South Asia are in accord with the interests of India and Pakistan as far as Afghanistan is concerned — but there are notable differences in some areas.
India’s interests in Afghanistan
For India, a presence in Afghanistan is not only a regional strategy but also a necessary precondition for asserting itself as a great power. The likely victory of the BJP-led coalition in India’s 2014 general election will further reinforce India’s aspiration to play a more notable role in global affairs.
New Delhi is Moscow’s privileged strategic partner and an influential regional and global actor. Cooperation with India, including joint efforts in Afghanistan (political stabilization, the counternarcotics campaign, etc) is very important to Russia.
But the factor of rivalry with Pakistan and China means that India’s interests in Afghanistan do not always coincide with Russia’s interests. Amid the ongoing rivalry with China and Pakistan, and in view of the diminishing presence of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, the Indian list of potential partners for cooperation includes only two countries, Russia and Iran.
Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan
Pakistan is the most active external player in Afghanistan. The Pashtun tribes that live on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border represent a shared link between the two countries. The border that separates them is a source of differences between Islamabad and Kabul.
Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan as part of its own sphere of influence. It therefore often regards problems faced by Afghanistan as its own national security problems. Islamabad also believes that by strengthening its influence over Afghanistan it can gain an advantage over its main rival India.
Ever since Pakistan emerged as an independent state, it has always been involved in internal Afghan affairs. It will now try to increase that involvement even further following the departure of the International Security Assistance Force from Afghanistan.
Pakistan is in many ways dependent on the United States, although relations between the two countries are often turbulent. Islamabad also maintains close ties with Beijing and Riyadh. That is why it is difficult to see Pakistan as Russia’s ally. That does not mean, however, that Russia should view Pakistan as a regional rival, let alone adversary. Cooperation with Islamabad in fighting terrorism, illegal migration, and narcotics can be very useful for Moscow.
Conclusion
In those areas where Russia’s interests coincide with the interests of India and Pakistan, Moscow should seek consultation and, where appropriate, cooperation on the problem of Afghanistan. Such consultations and joint efforts will be more effective if they are pursued on a bilateral basis. At the same time, Moscow should also make use of multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Dushanbe Quartet (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, and Tajikistan), and the trilateral Russia-India-China format. These organizations can serve as venues for exchanging opinions and preparing negotiations.
The withdrawal of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan will force Russia to play a more energetic role in maintaining regional security. That does not mean, however, that Russia will have to become directly involved in events taking place on Afghan territory. The objective of Russian foreign policy is to protect Russian interests by using political instruments in Afghanistan and in relations with its neighbors, especially India, Iran, and Pakistan. Russia should also work energetically and comprehensively in Central Asia, which represents its main security frontier. Russia’s diplomatic efforts will help to establish effective working relationships with all the regional powers.
1. Russian Foreign Policy Concept, July 15, 2008 // Russian president’s website (http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/785).
2. Russian Foreign Policy Concept, February 12, 2013 // Russian Foreign Ministry website (http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-osndoc.nsf/e ... enDocument).
3. Russian National Security Strategy to 2020, May 13, 2009. Russian president’s website. (http://www.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/424).
4. Putin V.V. Russia and the Changing World, February 27, 2012 // Moskovskiye Novosti (mn.ru/politics/20120227/312306749.html).
5. Boltenkov D.E. Reform of the Russian Navy // Boltenkov D.E., Gayday A.M., Karnaukhov A.A,, Lavrov A.V., Tseluyko V.A. Russia’s New Army / Edited by M.S. Barabanov. Moscow: Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2010, P. 87.
6. The Russian Military Doctrine, February 5, 2010 // Russian president’s website (http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461).
Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST)
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NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday described Russia as a "time tested friend" and said Moscow stood by India in difficult times.
At a meeting with Russian deputy prime minister Dmitri Rogozin who called on Modi here, the Prime Minister appreciated Russia's support in building India's military capabilities.
Modi said he intended to take the relationship with Russia to a higher level, a statement from the Prime Minister's Office said.
Yeah, we get to make and supply the screwdrivers from now on.Austin wrote:After a meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister talked to RIR about plans for the development of bilateral relations with the new Indian government, prospects for joint production of defence equipment and his views about Indian culture.
Interview:Russia ready to increase joint production in defence industry with India - Dmitry Rogozin
Russia has signalled that its proposed giant gas pipeline to China could be extended to India, setting the stage for a triangular energy partnership among three core members of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin, who has concluded a visit to India as President Vladimir Putin’s envoy told reporters that the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to India would be “one of the largest infrastructure projects that could be conceived”. His comments follow media reports that during his anticipated meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Brazil during the BRICS summit next month, Mr. Putin may propose the extension of the Russia-China gas pipeline to India.
That would be viewed by the US as another attack on the petrodollar. I doubt Indian policymakers would be willing to risk US ire over such a move.Austin wrote:^^ A good way would be to start trading atleast some some percentage of Oil/Gas import in Rupee/Rouble instead of USD/Euro would be great beneficial for both economies
What is the pipeline route?
China/Russia is exactly doing the same.Y. Kanan wrote:That would be viewed by the US as another attack on the petrodollar. I doubt Indian policymakers would be willing to risk US ire over such a move.Austin wrote:^^ A good way would be to start trading atleast some some percentage of Oil/Gas import in Rupee/Rouble instead of USD/Euro would be great beneficial for both economies
Changes in EU is triggering a global changeWith the Eurasian Economic Union coming into force on January 1, 2015, there is immense potential to integrate the region stretching from Russia via Central Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan into India.
Gazprom has shown interest in the TAPI pipeline that would supply gas to India from Turkmenistan, and there has also been talk of Russia constructing a similar pipeline, in a bid to supply India with more gas.
As long as Russia acts as a guarantor in that pipeline, there is very little chance that Pakistan will interrupt supplies to India.
Kazakhastan-Sinkiang-Ladakh!Cosmo_R wrote:
What is the pipeline route?
... along with Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran. They all tried to abandon the petrodollar and were made to pay dearly for it.Austin wrote:China/Russia is exactly doing the same.
It not about moving from Euro or USD but giving strength and value to ones own currency and depends on mutual give take between two countries.
Why would America retribute against India if at all if Russia is willing to sell Oil in Rupee , If they have to do that they would do against Russia.Y. Kanan wrote:... along with Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran. They all tried to abandon the petrodollar and were made to pay dearly for it.
I'm all for India making such a move, but we must be prepared for America's retribution. And there will be retribution, even if it takes the form of less dramatic action, like say, cutting off spares and support for all the expensive US eqpt we bought over the last 7 years.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Brazil.
Modi has favoured broadening of the strategic partnership with Russia in nuclear, defence and energy sectors and invited President Vladimir Putin to visit Kudankulam atomic power project during his trip in December for his annual summit.
The two leaders met for 40 minutes in Fortaleza late last night after their Monday meeting was deferred because of Putin's engagements in capital Brasilia.
Putin congratulated Modi on his great victory in the recent elections.
Modi, who has met Putin in 2001 in Moscow, said that Russia is a time-tested relationship and appreciates that it has been so since early independence.
Speaking in Hindi, he remarked, "Even a child in India if asked to say who is India's best friend will reply it is Russia because Russia has been with India in times of crisis."
He said India is committed to taking the relationship forward and the focus is to broaden the strategic partnership in nuclear, defence and energy sectors besides stepping up people-to-people contacts.
The prime minister said there was need to look at a liberal visa regime, especially students going for studies.
President Putin acknowledged that there was a case for looking at it, MEA spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said.
Modi suggested that President Putin should travel outside Delhi when he comes for the annual summit dialogue in December and visit a nuclear construction site, an apparent reference to the Kudankulam II project.
Putin responded saying "it is a good idea".
Modi fondly recalled his visit to Russia's Astrakan region in his early days as chief minister of Gujarat which has ties with that region. Talking about that visit, he said he felt as if he was in India.
Putin said Russia places its relations with India high enough in the strategic framework. Nuclear power project has been a symbol of India-Russia relations.
Modi appreciated Putin's speech at the BRICS summit saying it was clear on issues like reforms of the UN security council and international financial organisations.
Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nare ... 72606.html
And after the BRICS bank creation,the US increases sanctions against Russia.Russia to reopen Cuban mega-base to spy on America – report
Published time: July 16, 2014
Moscow and Havana have reportedly reached an agreement on reopening the SIGINT facility in Lourdes, Cuba - once Russia’s largest foreign base of this kind - which was shut down in 2001 due to financial problems and under US pressure.
When operational, the facility was manned by thousands of military and intelligence personnel, whose task was to intercept signals coming from and to the US territory and to provide communication for the Russian vessels in the western hemisphere.
Russia considered reopening the Lourdes base since 2004 and has sealed a deal with Cuba last week during the visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to the island nation, reports Kommersant business daily citing multiple sources.
“I can say one thing: at last!” one of the sources commented on the news to the paper, adding that the significance of the move is hard to overestimate.
The facility in Lourdes, a suburb of Havana located just 250km from continental USA, was opened in 1967. At the peak of the cold war it was the largest signal intelligence center Moscow operated in a foreign nation, with 3,000 personnel manning it.
From the base Russia could intercept communications in most part of the US including the classified exchanges between space facilities in Florida and American spacecraft. Raoul Castro, then-Defense Minister of Cuba, bragged in 1993 that Russia received 75 percent of signal intelligence on America through Lourdes, with was probably an overstatement, but not by a large amount.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union the base was downscaled, but continued operation. After Russia was hit the 1998 economic crisis, it found it difficult to maintain many of its old assets, including the Lourdes facility. In Soviet times Cuba hosted it rent-free, but starting 1992 Moscow had to pay Havana hundreds of millions dollars each year in addition to operational costs to keep the facility open.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and President of the Council of State and Ministers of the Republic of Cuba Raul Castro Ruz during a press statement at the Palace of the Revolution in Havana. (RIA Novosti/Aleksey Nikolsky)
An additional blow came in July 2000, when the US House passed the Russian-American Trust and Cooperation Act, a bill that would ban Washington from rescheduling or forgiving any Russian debt to the US, unless the facility in Lourdes is shut down.
Moscow did so in 2001 and also closed its military base in Vietnam’s Cam Ranh, with both moves reported as major steps to address Americans’ concerns. But, in the words of a military source cited by Kommersant, the US “did not appreciate our gesture of goodwill.”
No detail of schedule for the reopening the facility, which currently hosts a branch of Cuba’s University of Information Science, was immediately available. One of the principle news during Putin’s visit to Havana was Moscow’s writing off of the majority of the old Cuban debt to Russia. The facility is expected to require fewer personnel than it used to, because modern surveillance equipment can do many functions now automatically.
With the Lourdes facility operational again, Russia would have a much better signal intelligence capability in the western hemisphere.
“Returning to Lourdes now is more than justified," military expert Viktor Murakhovsky, a retired colonel, told Kommersant. “The capability of the Russian military signal intelligence satellite constellation has significantly downgraded. With an outpost this close to the US will allow the military to do their job with little consideration for the space-based SIGINT echelon.”
US widens sanctions on Russia, EU takes time to think over
Published time: July 16, 2014
The Obama administration has widened the list of sanctions unilaterally targeting individuals as well as financial institutions and defense companies which the US believes are involved in destabilizing the situation in Ukraine.
The US has moved to impose tougher sanctions against Russia over the tense situation in Ukraine. The widened set of restrictions have been placed on the country's largest oil producer Rosneft and major bank Vnesheconombank among others.
Wednesday's announcement came only moments after a meeting concluded in Brussels between EU delegates, who soon after announced their own plan to wage penalties against Russia. Efforts to immediately impose broad, sectorial sanctions favored by hard-liners were rejected, however, in lieu of establishing a timetable that may allow for the EU to penalize Russia after the end of the month.
On Wednesday, the European Council asked that the European Investment Bank "suspend the signature of new financing operations in the Russian Federation." Additionally, the Council revealed it will announce by the end of July what Russian entities and persons will be targeted by its own sanctions.
Meanwhile, among the individuals Washington has blacklisted are Minister for Crimean Affairs Oleg Savelyev, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma (Russian Parliament) Sergei Neverov, presidential aide Igor Shchegolev and Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) PM Aleksandr Boroday.
Speaking of the new restrictions being levied during a press conference from the White House on Wednesday afternoon, US Pres. Barack Obama said the latest sanctions are targeted, but "designed to have maximum impact on Russia while limited any spillover affect on American companies" or allies.
"Russian leadership will see once again that its actions in Ukraine has consequences," added Obama. "We live in a complex world and at a challenging time. None of these challenges lend themselves to quick or easy solutions, but all of them require American leadership."
"The US will continue to offer our strong support to Ukraine," Pres. Obama insisted.
Blacklisted defense sector companies include "Almaz-Antey" corporation, the "Kalashnikov" concern and Instrument Design Bureau, as well as companies and NGOs such as “Izhmash","Basalt" and Uralvagonzavod.
Another financial institution added to the sanction list is OAO Gazprombank, a company specializing in private banking and corporate financing services.
In its press release, the US Department of Treasury says that new sanctions were adopted in response to the “continued attempts to destabilize eastern Ukraine” and the “ongoing occupation of Crimea.”
In particular, the US aims to limit access to US capital markets by Russian banks – Gazprombank OAO and VEB – as well as energy companies OAO Novatek and Rosneft.
Washington explains that it has imposed sanctions against DPR and LPR because they are not recognized by Kiev, despite having achieved an overwhelming victory in self-determination votes.
“Treasury designated the “Lugansk People’s Republic” and the “Donetsk People’s Republic,” which have asserted governmental authority over parts of Ukraine without the authorization of the Government of Ukraine; and Aleksandr Boroday, the self-declared “prime minister” of the Donetsk People’s Republic, for threatening the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” the press release says.
Feodosiya Enterprises, a key shipping facility in the Crimean peninsula, has also been blacklisted as complicit in the “misappropriation of state assets of Ukraine”.
US says that the aim is to increase the “isolation” of Russian companies.
“By imposing sanctions on entities within the financial services and energy sectors, the Treasury has increased the cost of economic isolation for key Russian firms that value their access to medium- and long-term US sources of financing. By designating firms in the arms or related materiel sector, Treasury has cut these firms off from the US financial system and the US economy.”
Sergei Ryabko, the deputy foreign minister of the Russian Federation, added in a statement Wednesday that "arrogance and cynicism - are the two words that best characterize US policy toward Russia."
"No Fuss, we take it calmly, carefully," Ryabkov said of the sanctions, adding that "such actions affect Americans" and US interests, and will hamper “the achievement of foreign policy and economic goals that they have set for themselves.”
I went through the whole chapter, could not find an instance where in it states that Russia was providing billions of dollars every year to gandhi family to keep India in soviet block.gandharva wrote:Mitrokhin Archive - India Chapters
http://www.scribd.com/doc/232685967/Mit ... s#download
I remember reading about how KGB surrounded Indira with handsome officers around her whenever she visited Moscow ( just to get her off balance)rajsunder wrote: I went through the whole chapter, could not find an instance where in it states that Russia was providing billions of dollars every year to gandhi family to keep India in soviet block.
Was that info supposed to be on this book or any other book???
It decision to end its embargo on weapons sales to Pakistan could have multiple benefits for Moscow.
By Saurav Jha
July 31, 2014
Russia’s decision to go ahead with the sale of Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan, even in the face of official Indian concerns, is being seen by some quarters as evidence of a “major” regional re-alignment in the wake of the American drawdown in Afghanistan.
In fact, the Russia-Pakistan dialogue for regional integration has been underway for some time now and beyond security cooperation, it is more fundamentally driven by Moscow’s push towards ‘southern” markets and Pakistan’s need for a capable yet politically “manageable” strategic sector trade and investment partner. The Mi-35 sale (if it does materialize) reflects the fact that the geo-economic stakes for both sides are now high enough for them to make a concerted push towards a long term compartmentalized working relationship in a manner not dissimilar to the way in which their more traditional partners – India for Russia and America for Pakistan – deal with each other. Indeed, in a world characterized by both competition and cooperation the heady rhetoric of “strategic partnership” means little and it is the transactional content that weighs on any relationship. Far more than cooperation in counter-terrorism, Russia and Pakistan will have to move forward quickly on Putin’s commitment to invest in the latter’s energy and metallurgy sectors for their relationship to be meaningful.
It could be argued that it was actually America’s entry into the region a decade ago that ultimately accentuated the circumstances that impel Russia and Pakistan closer to each other. Pakistan’s counter-terrorism cooperation with America salved with military aid has been toxic for domestic stability, as the situation in FATA and Waziristan reveal. As the tempo of internal stability operations has increased, Pakistan is keen to diversify away from America for certain classes of weaponry to a source that can supply cheaper and more rugged alternatives with a much smaller political price on the domestic front. The Mi-35 fits that bill and is likely to prove useful for Pakistani operations against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in mountainous areas, given its pedigree from the Afghan theater. At the moment Pakistan is using AH-1 Cobra Gunships that were originally obtained from America for use against Indian armoured formations in the plains and are proving expensive to use in operations against the TTP. Pakistan may not wish to be saddled with too much expensive American equipment that it can”t afford without generous aid.
Russia until recently was “reluctant” to transfer equipment that could be labelled as offensive in nature such as the Mi-35, and was holding back probably with an eye on a number of Indian military procurement tenders such as the multi-billion dollar medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition. In 2010, Russia’s UAC, which was participating in the tender, even made noises about blocking the re-export of 150 KlimovRD-93 turbofans from China for Pakistan Air force’s future mainstay, the JF-17, on the grounds that it would compete with the Russian Mig-29 in international markets. By 2013, however, with Russia having lost out on the MMRCA tender and other Indian competitions, the Russians reiterated their commitment to continue supplies of the RD-93 and the JF-17 Block II commenced production in late 2013. So while much is being made of the Mi-35 sale, the fact is the Pakistanis seem set to rely on Russian engines for a majority of their fleet in the coming decades. When seen along with the fact that Russia supplied IL-78 MP refuelling tankers to Pakistan between 2009 and 2012, it is clear that comfort levels on both sides have been growing for quite a while now.
However, Russia is now willing to supply tactical equipment to Pakistan, especially in categories such as attack helicopters, where India either has domestic projects or may buy American. In many of these categories, though Pakistani spending ability given relatively cheaper Russian equipment is not insignificant, the pull for the Russians also comes from securing greater Pakistani willingness to help the Russians maintain security over energy infrastructure transiting areas like Eastern Afghanistan.
Once again, the American push to set up energy transit corridors from Central Asia to India such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline has created a situation of Russia-Pakistan commonality. Russia has for some time expressed an interest in joining the TAPI project and is now pushing decisively for it even while proposing new oil pipelines next to it. Russia is also eager to partner in the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project, opposed by the Americans, but with clear potential if Pakistan agrees to guarantee delivery of gas to the India border. Of course, besides military supplies, Russia can also offer Pakistan a lot of useful intelligence in the latter’s fight against the TTP given that group’s link with various Central Asian terrorist organizations.
For Pakistan, the opening of Russia as a source for weapons greatly increases Pakistan’s leg room vis-à-vis American pressure at the strategic level. Moreover while Pakistan is certainly eager to get involved in trilateral military projects with Russia and China like the JF-17 (which may now even be exported to Myanmar), direct Russian weapon sales are also coveted since the Pakistani military does not want to field only Chinese weapons either.
In fact, as terrorist activities in Xingjiang increase and Pakistan’s internal security situation worsens, the Chinese have been rather selective in their Pakistani investments. For instance, Pakistan’s decrepit railways have actually had to turn to India for help and are looking to lease up to 50 diesel engines as rolling stock. While Indian industry has been making overtures to Nawaz Sharif’s government to open up to cross border investment, the Pakistani military is still looking to a politically less sensitive prospect to shore up the flagging core sectors of the Pakistani economy clearly in need of reliable foreign capital.
Of course, if former Pakistani Army Chief General Kayani’s views are anything to go by, the military understands that there can be no Pakistan without a viable economy. While in uniform, it was Kayani who made a couple of visits to Russia and today the Russians are being wooed as a source for investment in Pakistan’s flagship Thar Coal Project as well as a strategic partner for upgrading the South Asian country’s moribund steel industry. Chechnya it seems is more distant than Kashmir or even Xingjiang and Russia could yet prove a politically acceptable partner for meeting an energy crisis ridden Pakistan’s requirements in quite a few sectors.
For Russia the benefits of succeeding in Pakistan are worth the risk, since it could leverage influence over Af-Pak to reach Indian shores. Indeed, even Pakistan’s Gwadar port, much touted as a Chinese “pearl” could actually host a LNG liquefaction facility that could send cheaper gas supplies than Qatar to import terminals in South India. However, both Russia and Pakistan will have to work quicker to remove long-standing trade disputes for a more conducive environment.
India will of course watch closely to see whether the Russians are indeed able to use the dependencies they are creating in Pakistan for closer regional energy integration. That the Russians are increasing strategic options for their neighbor when even the Saudis are handing over Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists will obviously be of concern to New Delhi. That is especially so since the Pakistanis themselves are masters at selective counterterrorism at a time when many jihadists in Syria and Afghanistan may soon be looking for a re-direct.
Draft documents on the procedure of the admission new members to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have been adopted. This is one of the main outcomes of the meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, China, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan held in Dushanbe on Thursday.
The adoption of these documents at the next SCO summit will give the green light for admitting the four observer-states, India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia, to the six-member organization.
Documents will be submitted to the SCO summit for the adoption. The summit will be held in Dushanbe in September. At present, Tajikistan holds the SCO presidency.
The quartet has expressed their desire to join the SCO in the past few years. The four countries have taken part in economic and cultural projects of the organization as observer-states. The desire of India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia reflects the growing authority and influence of the SCO in the eyes of Asian countries, says expert at the Higher School of Economics Alexei Maslov.
“At present, the SCO has started to counterbalance NATO’s role in Asia. Consequently, these countries want to take part in the SCO in the capacity of safeguard of their interests. At present, the SCO is strengthening because the American policy towards Asia has been excessively tough and is aimed at suppressing their interests. The American policy contradicts the interests of Asian countries. In this sense, it’s quite natural that India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia expressed desire to join the SCO. There is another aspect that has to be taken into account. The growing role of China in the world shows that many countries are afraid of directly cooperating with it without outside backing. In this context, SCO enters in the capacity of guarantor that China will honour the interests of these countries in the framework of the existing SCO guidelines,” Maslov said.
The admission of India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia will pave the way for the SCO to hold itself out as the centre of power in global politics, says expert at the Institute of International Studies, Leonid Gusev.
“If these countries become the SCO permanent members, this means that the organization will turn into a powerful structure. If other countries join the SCO, then we can say about the appearance of an alternative powerful global organization because it will be seriously reckoned,” Gusev said.
By giving green light to the admission of the quartet, the SCO shows that it is organizationally developing and capable of upgrading itself and rejecting exhausted norms, says Alexei Maslov.
“It has long considered that the admission of new members to the SCO, which have serious problems between them, for example India and Pakistan, would be dangerous for its future. The reason here was that this might led to grow strain between members. However, there are special relations between China and Pakistan. For one, China lobbies the admission of Pakistan to the SCO. Meanwhile, Russia actively supports the SCO membership of India, Iran and Mongolia. At present, owing to the admission of the quartet, the SCO will be able to create a powerful organization in Asia and it will be a powerful economic, cultural and educational network,” Gusev said.
The foreign ministers adopted a draft strategy for the development of the SCO up to 2025. It was submitted by Russia. It has set the task of minimizing the negative influence of global and regional processes on the SCO territory. It is also aimed at upgrading its role and significance in solving global issues.
Great opportunity for Indian companies to enter Russian food market
August 8, 2014 Ajay Kamalakaran
In the wake of Russia’s one-year ban on imports of food products that imposed sanctions on Russia, India could become a major exporter of buffalo meat, processed food and dairy products to the country.
McDonalds comes under the Russian authorties' scanner
Vodka losing the battle against whiskey in Russia
Asia is running the global food market
import russia food and agriculture business beat ban
Great opportunity for Indian companies to enter Russian food market
Indian products could fill shelves in Russian shops. Source: Alexandr Kryazhev / RIA Novosti
The years following the 1998 financial crisis and subsequent Russian debt default presented one of the best opportunities for exporters of Indian agricultural produce to enter the Russian market. A lack of interest, information and prevalence of stereotypes about Russia kept Indian exporters from entering Russia. It was precisely around that time the Europeans, Americans and even the Chinese moved back in and completely captured the Russian market.
A visit to any supermarket in a Russian city will show how much the country depends on imported food. One would be hard pressed to find anything of Indian origin besides certain spices and tea. The Russian government’s decision to ban fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy imports from the U.S. the European Union, Australia, Canada and other countries that have imposed sanctions on Moscow, is a great opportunity for Indian exporters to enter the Russian food market.
пустым не оставлять!!
McDonalds comes under the Russian authorties' scanner
According to India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), buffalo meat exports amounted to $4.3 billion in the 2013-14. India houses almost 60 percent of the world’s buffalo population, and the animal is not considered sacred unlike cows, making it the ideal beef substitute. There were some concerns in Russia about the conditions that buffalo grazed in India, but Indian buffalo meat has been exported to countries like Malaysia, Mauritius and the Seychelles, which have had no outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Russian agriculture and veterinary sanitation inspectors should be invited to India to inspect the conditions for themselves. This should help address their concerns about buffalo meat exported from India.
India needed to play hardball to get the Russian ban on egg products and non-basmati rice lifted last year, but given the fact that one of Russia’s top priorities is to control food inflation, it is unlikely that Moscow will go beyond demanding its normal sanitary standards when dealing with New Delhi over the import of meat and poultry products.
There’s also a great opportunity for one of India’s biggest success stories, Amul, to get a presence in Russia. The serious shortfall in dairy and cheese products means, the Indian cooperative can at least manage to get a small presence in Russia. India exported $540 million worth of dairy products in the last financial year according to APEDA figures.
The Russian market
Indian exporters of agricultural consumer products would be well served to get in touch with Moscow’s small but knowledgeable Indian Diaspora. Many members of the Indian community in the Russian capital have cut their teeth and have a great degree of expertise about the complex market. For Indian food products to do well in Russia, a combination of good marketing and attractive packaging is a must along with quality products.
One of the great success stories in Russia is the Sri Lankan tea industry, which came out of nowhere and captured the market, which was dominated by India for decades. Brands like Dilmah are a household name in Russia and Mlesna tea centres can be found in the GUM department store as well as Moscow’s Domodedovo airport.
пустым не оставлять!!
Asia is running the global food market
Of course, it’s not just Indian exporters of agricultural products that stand to gain from strained ties between Russia and the West. The Mint reported that India’s Commerce Ministry has worked out a strategy to export 24 items that Russia usually buys from the U.S. and European Union. These include optics, electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals and plastics, according to the paper.
North South corridor
Now that Russia has decided to bypass sanctions on Iran and signed a MoU to intensify economic cooperation, India along with the two countries can push for marked progress on the North-South Transport corridor.
The corridor project envisages a ship, rail and road route that connects ports on India's west coast to Bandar Abbas in Iran, then overland to Bandar Anzali port on the Caspian Sea and through former Soviet republics right up to Russia. The route could via either Armenia and Georgia or the more practical option of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
An inter-governmental agreement on the corridor was signed between Russia, Iran, India and Oman, back in 2001, but there has been very little progress in making it functional. Now more than ever, Russia needs to push for all the railway connections to be built at a rapid rate to make the corridor functional.
This functioning of the corridor would also open Russia and many former Soviet states to India’s fruit and vegetable exporters in years when India has a bumper crop.
It is not clear how long Russia’s impasse with the West will last, but this is as good a time as any for Indian businesses to rediscover a country that was one of India’s biggest trade partners in the 1970s and 80s.
Angela Monaghan
The Guardian, Tuesday 12 August 2014 22.10 BST
Mario Draghi ECB President
The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, says Germany's recovery will be 'weak, fragile and uneven'.
Europe's standoff with Russia has affected the region's largest economy after economic confidence in Germany nosedived unexpectedly, fuelling fears the eurozone's weak recovery will be snuffed out.
Hostility between the west and Vladimir Putin over Russia's treatment of Ukraine is already hurting the German economy, according to a closely watched survey of investor mood.
The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment plunged more sharply than expected to a 20-month low of 8.6 points from 27.1 points in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a far smaller drop, to 18.2 points.
Economists said it was a worrying sign of faltering confidence in Germany, which has been instrumental in lifting the wider eurozone out of the worst of the crisis and was the UK's second largest trade partner in terms of good exports last year. The imposition of tit-for-tat sanctions between Russia and the EU, with Brussels banning exports such as oil and gas equipment to Russia and the Kremlin retaliating with an embargo on European food imports, has hit confidence.
"Fear is back," said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING. "The German ZEW just sent more signs of caution, showing that at least financial market participants are increasingly becoming pessimistic."
The extent of Germany's woes will be laid bare on Thursday when the first official estimate of second-quarter GDP is expected to show zero growth, following a 0.8% rise in the first quarter.
Brzeski said the danger for Germany was that a weak second quarter could turn into something more serious. "Looking ahead, today's ZEW sends a worrying signal that the growth performance in the second quarter could suddenly morph from a one-off into an undesired trend. Up to now, the fallout of the Ukraine crisis has been limited to a general return of uncertainty and a sharp drop in German exports to Russia. Obviously, a further escalation of the crisis could start to really hurt the economy."
The ZEW index, which measures investors' expectations for the economy in six months' time, has fallen for eight consecutive months amid weak growth in the eurozone overall – the UK's biggest trading partner. Growth in the eurozone is expected to have slowed to 0.1% between April and June from 0.2% in the first three months of the year. The fear is that heightened tensions will be enough to halt the fragile recovery.
Germany stands to be among the hardest hit by the west's stance on Russia because it is Russia's biggest trading partner within the EU.
The authors of the ZEW report said the decline in economic sentiment was the result of the geopolitical tensions that have begun to weigh on Germany's growth.
"In particular, current figures on industrial production and incoming orders suggest markedly reduced investment activities on the part of German firms against the backdrop of uncertain sales prospects. Since the economy in the eurozone is not gaining momentum either, the signs are that economic growth in Germany will be weaker in 2014 than expected."
The European Central Bank (ECB) made clear last week that it is ready to unleash quantitative easing in the eurozone should the outlook for the currency bloc worsen. Inflation in the 18-member region slipped to 0.4% in July from 0.5% in June, reigniting fears that the eurozone is moving dangerously close to deflation.
Meanwhile, new data from Portugal showed weak demand is damaging the eurozone's periphery. Figures from the Portuguese statistics office on Tuesday showed deflation accelerated in July, with prices falling by 0.7% over the year. It was worse than expected after economists predicted inflation would remain unchanged at June's rate of -0.2%.
The fear is that falling prices will trigger a deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off purchases because they are expecting prices to fall further.
Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, said last week the region's recovery remained "weak, fragile and uneven", and warned sanctions and counter-sanctions between the west and Russia were among the biggest risks facing the eurozone economy.
"Geopolitical risks are heightened. And some of them, like the situation in Ukraine and Russia, will have a greater impact on the euro area than they … have on other parts of the world," Draghi said.
He added however that measures announced in June were starting to be successful. At that point the ECB cut the main interest rate to 0.15%, imposed a negative rate of -0.1% on bank deposits, and announced a €400bn (£317bn) package of cheap finance to encourage bank lending
Yeah, we get to make and supply the screwdrivers from now on.[/quote]
