India-Russia: News & Analysis

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Oct 2015 05:16

This is not the old India. India - today - has, if not THE largest middle class, certainly one of the largest. Her population is very young and large. Applying Iran/Cuba type sanctions should hurt those applying the sanctions too - as was the case with Iran, when it hurt India and Japan, among others perhaps.

The preferred way to hurt India is to court Pakistan and the like - reverse sanctions, improve the opponent.

I, for one, just do not see anyone even trying to go down the path of applying sanctions with India.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 30 Oct 2015 05:20

The spares for Su-30mki are becoming a major issue. The RM as well as the IAF chief have made prominent public statements on this without pointing fingers, but it is clear that they want Russia to step up its game in this regard. Looks like the helicopter deals (light and Mi-17v) will get through, but pretty much everything else (especially FGFA) is hostage to this. What I found noteworthy is that there is no movement on Su-30mki upgrades at all. So the message from the Indian side is that unless our maintainability problem with IAF's spearhead is addressed, we are not going to play ball.

Also, IMHO, Russia would be making a grave mistake if they let the FGFA become a cause for deterioration of India-Russia relations. India is signalling that there are several other areas on the civilian side especially that can be used to sustain this relationship, and flogging the FGFA after all the bad experiences India has had of late is an extremely short sighted policy.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Oct 2015 05:30

YI,

Is that your analysis or did you come across that some place?

I have been saying that very thing for some time now. Russia has value to India in the O&G vertical and not as much in the def.

Unfortunately I think the PAK-FA is not going to move. And pretty much forget most major purchases.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 30 Oct 2015 05:41

NR,

Just putting things together for myself. I have read and agree with some of your posts on FGFA - you may be right about this going nowhere, but I suspect India will not explicitly rule anything out until a MMRCA candidate is in the bag. The PAK-FA makes for good leverage in other negotiations, and if the Russians relent, it can present a credible Make in India opportunity. Certainly not holding my breath in any case!

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 30 Oct 2015 05:46

The old style thinking of who India should be courting, where India has to walk on egg shells, lest it rubs someone the wrong way is a product of Nehruvian policy being good boy everywhere. Many of the older establishment have difficulty getting past this ghost.

The new style and actual necessity should be: For a change India should let others do such thinking as to whether they want to have good positive relationship with India and be on the right side of history. India should be pursuing a policy of devil may care and do what needs to be done, without being a slave to Nehruvian tactics and strategic blunders.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 30 Oct 2015 05:47

Parrikar going to Russia to finalise deals for Modi to sign in December.

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar, on the eve of his departure to Russia, says he hopes to "prepare some [contracts for signing during] Prime Minister Narendra Modi's annual summit visit to Russia in December.

In an interview on Thursday to Russian news agency ITAR-TASS, Parrikar said: "(F)or example, the project for joint production of Kamov Ka-226 helicopters. I hope to use my visit to have it inked on paper when the prime minister arrives. Also the purchase of S-400 missile systems. We anticipate these projects to be coordinated by next month."

Although he did not state this during his interview, ITAR-TASS is reporting on its website that "Russia (is) to lease another nuclear sub(marine) to India in December".

In 2012, India had leased a 12,000-tonne Akula-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, the INS Chakra, for a ten-year period for $900 million. At that time, then defence minister, AK Antony, had confirmed that negotiations were under way for a second nuclear submarine.

The Kamov-226T is a 3.5 tonne, two-pilot, light helicopter that is specially modified with a new engine for Indian requirements, primarily high-altitude operations along the Himalayan borders.

At their last summit meeting in New Delhi in January, President Vladimir Putin had personally requested the Indian prime minister for Russian Helicopters to be awarded a contract for building 197 Kamov-226T reconnaissance and observation helicopters in India.

This will be built under the "Make in India" initiative. The Indian partner is being decided and is likely to either be Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) or Reliance Defence.

The S-400, known in Russia as Triumf, is an extremely potent, long-range, ground-to-air defence system that is used to protect area targets from missiles that are fired from 40-400 kilometres away.

Parrikar also said he would press Russia hard for ensuring a high serviceability of Sukhoi-30MKI (Su-30MKI) fighter jets, through a smooth and reliable supply of spare parts and systems. There is concern within the Indian Air Force (IAF) that its Su-30MKI fleet, which will eventually comprise of 272 fighters, has had serviceability rates as low as 45 to 50 per cent.

Parrikar told TASS: "We have almost 220 of them (Su-30MKI) now and ultimately the number will reach 270, which represents about 40 per cent of IAF. When you have 40 per cent of air force strength from a particular maker, you are obviously interested in ensuring that they are serviced properly. Those aspects will be discussed and we are coming to conclusions, to solutions to the problem. I hope that these problems will be resolved very soon so service operation is substantially enhanced."

The proposal for India and Russia to co-develop two major aircraft - the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft (MRTA) - has been in trouble for some time. Parrikar spelt out the problems in both projects.

"As for the FGFA, negotiations will proceed further and we have halted ourselves to establish things clear in our minds. But with the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft, there are serious issues needing clarification, let me be frank. There are some serious observations which need to be clarified and reviewed properly," said the Indian defence minister.

Finally, Parrikar revealed that the IAF intended to finalise the purchase from Russian Helicopters of another 48 Mi-17V-5 helicopters, consolidating its position as the workhorse of the IAF fleet. With this purchase, the IAF will be operating some 280 Mi-17 helicopters.

Parrikar will leave for Moscow and St Petersburg on October 30, and will meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow on November 2. Later that day, he will leave for a three-day visit to Malaysia, to attend the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus. Late on Thursday evening, a meeting of the apex Defence Acquisition Council cleared a clutch of acquisitions: four 3,500-tonne multi-purpose vessels (MPVs) for the navy for duties like towing targets and tugs, for a cost of Rs 700 each; two Deep Submergence Rescue Vessels (DSRVs) for deep-sea rescue for Rs 750 crore each; 149 BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles to be built in India for Rs 924 crore; two Pinaka multi-barrel rocket regiments for Rs 3,300 crore; and the upgrade of IL-76 and IL-78 aircraft for Rs 4,300 crore.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 30 Oct 2015 06:44

Why can't we make the spares for the Su-30 MKIs ourselves? Just get laser imaging equipment and map the spare parts and then 3-D print the spares.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Oct 2015 10:27

Manohar Parrikar spoke about Indo-Russian joint defense projects in an exclusive interview with TASS

Indian Defense Minister: I have always seen Russia as an all-weather friend for India

http://tass.ru/en/defense/832683

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 30 Oct 2015 17:40

Hitesh wrote:Why can't we make the spares for the Su-30 MKIs ourselves?

Because the contract says that we must buy from them, even some of the raw materials.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 30 Oct 2015 22:33

I am sure that the contract has become null and void based on Russia's failures to timely provide the spares and in good quality. Why do we want to risk the well-being and security of India based on such a contract?

I would go ahead and manufacture the spare parts as a precaution. If Russia cries foul, then we can say PAK-FA is off the table and so are other deals. We have to be ruthless in this aspect and Russia needs to be made to understand that.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Oct 2015 22:57

Parrikar going to Russia to finalise deals for Modi to sign in December

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar, on the eve of his departure to Russia, says he hopes to "prepare some [contracts for signing during] Prime Minister Narendra Modi's annual summit visit to Russia in December.

In an interview on Thursday to Russian news agency ITAR-TASS, Parrikar said: "(F)or example, the project for joint production of Kamov Ka-226 helicopters. I hope to use my visit to have it inked on paper when the prime minister arrives. Also the purchase of S-400 missile systems. We anticipate these projects to be coordinated by next month."

Although he did not state this during his interview, ITAR-TASS is reporting on its website that "Russia (is) to lease another nuclear sub(marine) to India in December".

In 2012, India had leased a 12,000-tonne Akula-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, the INS Chakra, for a ten-year period for $900 million. At that time, then defence minister, AK Antony, had confirmed that negotiations were under way for a second nuclear submarine.

The Kamov-226T is a 3.5 tonne, two-pilot, light helicopter that is specially modified with a new engine for Indian requirements, primarily high-altitude operations along the Himalayan borders.

At their last summit meeting in New Delhi in January, President Vladimir Putin had personally requested the Indian prime minister for Russian Helicopters to be awarded a contract for building 197 Kamov-226T reconnaissance and observation helicopters in India.

This will be built under the "Make in India" initiative. The Indian partner is being decided and is likely to either be Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) or Reliance Defence.

The S-400, known in Russia as Triumf, is an extremely potent, long-range, ground-to-air defence system that is used to protect area targets from missiles that are fired from 40-400 kilometres away.

Parrikar also said he would press Russia hard for ensuring a high serviceability of Sukhoi-30MKI (Su-30MKI) fighter jets, through a smooth and reliable supply of spare parts and systems. There is concern within the Indian Air Force (IAF) that its Su-30MKI fleet, which will eventually comprise of 272 fighters, has had serviceability rates as low as 45 to 50 per cent.

Parrikar told TASS: "We have almost 220 of them (Su-30MKI) now and ultimately the number will reach 270, which represents about 40 per cent of IAF. When you have 40 per cent of air force strength from a particular maker, you are obviously interested in ensuring that they are serviced properly. Those aspects will be discussed and we are coming to conclusions, to solutions to the problem. I hope that these problems will be resolved very soon so service operation is substantially enhanced."

The proposal for India and Russia to co-develop two major aircraft - the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft (MRTA) - has been in trouble for some time. Parrikar spelt out the problems in both projects.

"As for the FGFA, negotiations will proceed further and we have halted ourselves to establish things clear in our minds. But with the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft, there are serious issues needing clarification, let me be frank. There are some serious observations which need to be clarified and reviewed properly," said the Indian defence minister.

Finally, Parrikar revealed that the IAF intended to finalise the purchase from Russian Helicopters of another 48 Mi-17V-5 helicopters, consolidating its position as the workhorse of the IAF fleet. With this purchase, the IAF will be operating some 280 Mi-17 helicopters.

Parrikar will leave for Moscow and St Petersburg on October 30, and will meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow on November 2. Later that day, he will leave for a three-day visit to Malaysia, to attend the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus. Late on Thursday evening, a meeting of the apex Defence Acquisition Council cleared a clutch of acquisitions: four 3,500-tonne multi-purpose vessels (MPVs) for the navy for duties like towing targets and tugs, for a cost of Rs 700 each; two Deep Submergence Rescue Vessels (DSRVs) for deep-sea rescue for Rs 750 crore each; 149 BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles to be built in India for Rs 924 crore; two Pinaka multi-barrel rocket regiments for Rs 3,300 crore; and the upgrade of IL-76 and IL-78 aircraft for Rs 4,300 crore

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 Nov 2015 22:51

Why do we need the S-400s, when we can deploy our samyukthas, sangrahas and akash batteries?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Nov 2015 23:47

More range. We can have Cold Start without mobilizing.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Nov 2015 12:15

Ahead of Modi-Putin meet, Manohar Parrikar talks submarine & copter deals with Russia

No movement on PAK-FA?

No mention of MTA.

Rest as expected.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Nov 2015 18:46

Russia, India sign military-technical cooperation agreement

Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, following talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, called Moscow a "privileged" strategic partner in the field.

"We have very close and strong connections in the area of defenсe. Russia has been and remains to date India’s leading partner," Parrikar, who arrived in Moscow for the IRIGC-MTC on Friday, said.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 03 Nov 2015 18:52

India seals Rs 70,000 cr missile deal with Russia
New Delhi, Nov 2 (UNI) In what could easily be said the biggest ever defence deal with Russia, India has stitched a contract to acquire S-400 anti-ballistic missile systems from Moscow at a cost of around Rs 70,000 crores, top sources in the Defence Ministry said here today.
The modalities, including the price of deal and number of systems to be acquired, were agreed upon in the meeting of India-Russia Inter Governmental Commission on Military-Technical-Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) which concluded today in Moscow, with Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar co-chairing it jointly with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.
The mega deal, along with an agreement to get another nuclear submarine, is likely to be formally signed during the visit to Russia of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who would be travelling to Moscow sometime in December for an annual summit with President Vladimir Putin, the sources told UNI.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 03 Nov 2015 19:15

Why do we need S-400 missiles? We can make those missiles ourselves. We just need the sensors. We already have the infrastructure and know how to make those missiles. This is just a waste of money. 70,000 crores??!!! for S-400 missiles?? We would get more bang for the bucks if we went in for more Rafales instead of S-400s and that is saying a lot. This is $10 billion dollars we are talking about. The Israelis raid against the Syria nuclear (supposedly) base was defended by S-300s and 400s and they did diddly squat. We are just throwing good money after bad.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Nov 2015 11:08

Shoigu: Russia and India have moved to a mutually beneficial partnership in the military-technical sphere

http://vpk.name/news/143560_shoigu_rf_i ... sfere.html

"In the future, - the creation of multi-purpose transport aircraft, fighter of the fifth generation of a number of projects in the naval field," - reminded the head of the military department

MOSCOW, November 2nd. / TASS /. India and Russia in the sphere of military-technical cooperation went on the relations of the seller and the buyer to a mutually beneficial partnership, announced Nov. 2 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

"In the sphere of military-technical cooperation, we have reached the level of the close industrial cooperation", - the minister said at a meeting of the Russian-Indian intergovernmental commission.

"In the future, - the creation of multi-purpose transport aircraft, fighter of the fifth generation of a number of projects in the naval field," - reminded Shoigu.

As the head of the Russian Defense Ministry, for 15 years of a bilateral commission on military-technical cooperation has proved its efficiency. "Parties, it was decided a lot of challenges, achieved impressive results. The Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation is really moved by the relationship of the seller and the buyer to a mutually beneficial partnership," - he stressed.

According to Shoigu, today the Commission will sum up the joint work over the past year and to fix priorities for the documents drafted by experts.

On the joint military exercises

Russia is ready to strengthen cooperation with India in the field of military exercises, said Shoigu.

According to him, military cooperation is an important component of the strategic cooperation between the two countries. Last year, the minister reminded, Russia and India successfully held a joint exercise under the three branches of the armed forces.

"In November and December 2015 the parties planned anti-terrorism and naval exercises that In accordance with the agreements will take place in India. We are ready to strengthen cooperation in this area", - the minister added.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Nov 2015 11:13

IOC eyeing stake in Russia's Vankor Field

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 648257.cms

NEW DELHI: Indian Oil Corp wants to buy a stake in Rosneft's Vankor field in Russia, its chairman said on Tuesday, as the country's top refiner aims to source at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil through its own assets by 2020.

India imports about 80 per cent of its crude needs and has mandated its oil firms to acquire oil and gas assets overseas in a bid to cut an oil import bill running in billions of dollars.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) in September bought a 15 per cent stake in Vankor in Siberia to secure access to about 66,000 bpd of oil production.

"OVL is already there what we have said is that we could look at it together in their (OVL's) terms," B. Ashok told a news conference, adding that the talks are at a preliminary stage.

He said IOC has not decided on the size of any stake.

Ashok said his firm aims to spend up to Rs 1.75 trillion ($26.63 billion) in the next five to seven years to build up its refining, pipeline, petrochemicals and retail business.

IOC in April commissioned its 300,000 bpd coastal refinery at Paradip in eastern Odisha state. The plant is expected to operate at a full rate in the fiscal year to March 2017, said Sanjiv Kumar, IOC's head of refineries.

The refinery would soon begin producing gasoline, and that would help cut imports of the fuel, Kumar said.

IOC estimates India's fuel demand to rise by 4-5 per cent in this fiscal year mainly due to robust consumption of gasoline and gasoil.

The Indian refiner has a term deal to buy 30,000 bpd Iranian oil and it could step up purchases if "economics work out" and sanctions against Tehran are lifted, Ashok said.

IOC frequently taps spot markets for low sulphur oil, mainly from Nigeria, to feed its refineries that accounts for about a third of the country's 4.6 bpd capacity.

The Indian refiners received only half of the contracted 60,000 bpd oil with Nigerian state-firm NNPC this year, and had to tap the spot market for 130,000 bpd West African oil.

IOC recently submitted a bid to buy 100,000 bpd of sweet oil in the latest annual tender issued by Nigerian state oil firm NNPC, said AK Sharma, head of finance at IOC.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 04 Nov 2015 12:02

Hitesh wrote:Why do we need S-400 missiles? ... We would get more bang for the bucks if we went in for more Rafales instead of S-400s ...

I think it is an optimal choice took by MoD, MoF and MoEA.
Why S-400? and why not Rafale?
Let us dissect it. S-400 is purely defensive and Rafale is mostly an offesnsive. Any investment in offensive will give talking points to Pak to get more F-16s, AEWACS as alms from US. S-400 not only removes any edge american fighters may have but also minimizes the threat from TNWs that Pak may use on the Indian heartland.

11B is a big money that helps Russian economy and also precludes Russia from selling anything substantial to Pakistan. If we buy an offensive equipment from Russia Pak will again run to uncle for more alms.

US keeping quiet and not saying anything about Patriot or THAAD shows that it has already been taken into confidence.
jm2c.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Nov 2015 15:09

One report said that the deal was discussed "in secret" for the last 6 months. There must be some reason behind it,most prob. the revelations about Pak's nuke ambitions/production. However,we will need at least S-400s to protect 6-8 key cities/industrial hubs/bases from BM attack. Perhaps our desi PAD systems will complement the S-400s.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Nov 2015 15:16

I think the S400 is a package deal with the FGFA and submarines and some other classified sensor stuff. There have been bargaining going on for quite some time as per media. So let's not assume that S400 standalone is worth $11 billion.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Nov 2015 16:15

Yes,the fine print would be vey interesting to read. These were the "low hanging fruit".V.interssting to know what the "ripening fruit" are!

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 06 Nov 2015 07:00

"Hinoz Dilli Door Ast" is always a good maxim for complicated deals like this, but if we are to speculate, the S-400 will be shooting down an impressive number of targets even before the first regiment gets deployed in India:

- MMRCA in general (we have no more money left) AMCA becomes the new MMRCA, long live amcha amca!
- PAK FA (possibly) PAK FA was always about much more than an IAF operational necessity, and quite possibly the bargain is to quietly shelve PAK FA and use this mega deal to showcase Indo-Russian military relationship. So there is definitely a, shall we say, "non-technical" dimension to this whole deal
- Also recollect that India has been in talks with US for dog's years over the sale of Patriot systems. So this is a huge finger to Unkil
- To US leverage over Pak via sale of F-16s. Suddenly, all those shiny toys will begin to look like trinkets, even to PAF
- And, of course, the biggest intended target is nuclear blackmail by Pak.

All in all, not a bad list of victims! I am very pleased at how all of this has developed, and I think that we have not heard half of the bargain yet. Pay close attention to what we get on Su-30MKI spares, all this was in part inducement to make the IAF's spearhead more maintainable. I expect to see either huge Make in India concessions on SuMKI spares, upgrades, or both. Plus major chunks of Make in India for the S-400 systems. So the next few weeks till Modi's visit to Russia are going to be a agonizing wait for details to emerge!

A thought on the system itself - given the extreme geography of India's northern frontiers and limited options of road networks, a fixed system of targeting radars and missile locations might have advantages over a mobile system. Plus, the elevation advantage of mountain deployment can be combined with larger planar arrays for the radar units to have a customized system for India that is even more powerful than corresponding units deployed in Russia. So I would like to see sub-sets of the S-400 system cherry picked and integrated into India's existing AD network to set up a missile shield for the country, especially along the northern and western borders. But given how this whole deal has been a surprise, I am confident that the decision makers will come up with an effective package for India.

All in all, a fantastic development and a game changer for the strategic environment in the Indian subcontinent.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 06 Nov 2015 09:48

YIP, have you found any answers to your own question about Pak Army reserves Army reserve North and Army reserve South.

Are they in their peacetime locations or have been deployed for Zarb-e-Azb.

We need this vital piece of info to judge the PA state of readiness.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Nov 2015 12:42

Died not due to Putin,as Western entities would love to have alleged,but as its owner says,"by the free market"!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/n ... mes-weekly

Russia's last independent English newspaper ends daily edition

Weekly version of The Moscow Times adopts magazine-style format amid fears over loss of important news source
The new-format Moscow Times will come out weekly. Photograph: Andrei Boyakov

Alec Luhn in Moscow

Friday 6 November 2015

Russia’s only independent English-language newspaper, The Moscow Times, has stopped publishing daily issues in favour of a new weekly format.

The new owner says the move will allow him to save the loss-making publication, but some correspondents fear it spells the end of an important independent news source and training ground for correspondents.

Founded by Dutch publisher Derk Sauer in 1992 and distributed in cafes, hotels and airplanes, The Moscow Times often covered Russian news and issues in more depth than western publications. Former correspondents have gone on to success at other publications, including Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times correspondent Ellen Barry.

As the Russian economy has slowed down and expats have begun to leave the country, other English-language publications such as the entertainment newspaper The Element have shut down.

In addition to economic difficulties, independent media also face political problems. Amid rising tensions with the west, Russian officials regularly accuse foreign media of waging an information war against Moscow.

In October 2014 Vladimir Putin signed a law barring foreign investors from owning more than a 20% stake in Russian media outlets. Following this legislation, the Finnish publishing group Sanoma sold The Moscow Times to Demyan Kudryavtsev, who previously directed the publishing house of the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant and was a business partner of the late oligarch Boris Berezovsky.

Kudryavtsev admits that he bought The Moscow Times as part of a package that included the important Russian business daily Vedomosti, as well as the more profitable Men’s Health and National Geographic. But he chose to try to revamp the newspaper rather than shut it down, he said.

“I do it from my own pocket, and all I’m hearing is that I’m killing The Moscow Times,” he said. “The Moscow Times was already dead as a business, for eight years. If the audience needs it, it needs to be proved economically, that’s what we call the free market.”

But some former and current Moscow Times correspondents called it the end of an era.

“The newspaper is basically a feature pile, city guide kind of thing,” said one reporter who declined to be quoted by name. “It has some newsy kinds of things but no aspirations to anything particularly serious, as was shown in new edition. It’s not that it’s badly written, it’s just the format.”

The first weekly issue that came out on Thursday includes several reports on the troubled Russian airline industry following the plane crash in Egypt this weekend. But its new magazine-style cover also features a piece on a local women’s football team and a story with the teaser, New Ways to Get Drunk in Moscow.

Although no mass layoffs have ensued, the newspaper has fired a photographer as part of what Kudryavtsev said was a restructuring of the photo department, and at least five other employees have left since he became owner. But Kudryavtsev has hired a respected Russian publisher, as well as a well-known editor, who will determine the content, he said.

“If they continue to populate the website with relevant news stories each day (and this was a plan), then The Moscow Times will remain a meaningful source of news,” said former editor Nabi Abdullaev, who left the newspaper last month over personal disagreements with Kudryavtsev.

bhalluka · Post by **bhalluka** » 06 Nov 2015 13:59

This could have implications for India

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is ... Crude.html

A much cheaper way to get Russian/Central Asian oil and gas including fields that India has invested in. Gives leverage against the Saudis and GCC.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 06 Nov 2015 19:53

Current PMs foreign visits & their results vis-à-vis Russia/US resemble IG's world tour to both US & SU on the eve of 1971 war - and the resultant strategic alignment with USSR - then also it was SU which responded favourably while massa rebuffed India's offer.

S400 (a strategic weapons system) can change the Indo-Pak balance of power (as diligently maintained by massa) significantly, so expect unkil to come to his munna's aid soon.
Along with the S400 news we are seeing "Patriot,JSF off the table for India" type headlines in US sources - signalling some shift.

During coldwar India lost the swing state competition to China by 60s & became a mere vassal of soviets(Ironically both lost in this vassal like relationship. India lacked the heft to help soviets after 1971 even in Afghanistan when it mattered for Soviets & Soviets did not invest fast enough in Indias future as a balance to US/China due to ideological blinkers - India's loss got further amplified when SU collapsed beginning in 1990s).
Then emergency happened, massa drove IG into a corner by 1977 & by 1980 when she returned subdued both Indians & soviets knew India's utility will be limited by the penetration of CIA/MI6 in our establishment as demoed during emergency.

Chinese on the other hand showed better management (or did a purge happen?)of the competing soviet lobby in China once Sino-US pact was established .It reaped the benefits of this internal political stability with Massa FDI routed through Japan & a period of prolonged uninterrupted growth.

Hopefully now a more confident India & Russia(w/o communist baggage) can rectify their past mistakes to shore up each other better (internally aswell as externally) against Unkil & his minions. China as an increasingly independent player will even be of use here.

If these strategic weapons transfers signal a new alignment , expect blowback from massa & its poodles or is it already happening?

MAD will be doing constructive destruction of Massa-UK vectors of attack by enticing their premature use (examples like AAP,Hardik Patel). But still there are so many sleeper cells - will require tremendous maneuvering by Doval ji to ensure that MAD is not tamed like IG of 1980 which will only seal another prolonged mediocre period for India on the sidelines.

Bose files revealing after UK visit of Modi , will be a reset button at many levels in the Indo-Russian relationship purging the hidden negative baggage of the past.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 07 Nov 2015 04:32

There are no free lunches. One should not be complacent when dealing nation states, under the guise of friendship. Because, when friendships are taken for granted, blinders will come on. In the case of Russia, it should be remembered that : Lal Bahadu Shastri lost his life in Tashkent, and Subash Chandra Bose too under mysterious circumstance with impact to Russian connection. So, it is prudent to have extreme caution when dealing with Russia. Hope Modiji has adequate protection for his tour especially to perceived friendly countries. At one time Sonia Maino was rumored to have some connections with Russian establishment.

The Netaji files that are going to be released will be a damp squib. It has all the hype but will not deliver any dhamka.

Most countries that have aligned with Soviet union/Russia have ended in very bad state. Not one single country has become better because of such alignment. Records speak poorly. Heck, even Russia has fared badly. There is no reason to believe that it is going to be game changer for India. The best outcome would be to hope this relationship does not put us on backfoot for another couple of decades.

Past records are not good, only made to look good because of closer affinity of Soviet union policies and Indian establishment policy planners. Some things are good, most things are left to be desired permanently.

Russia insisting on higher payments even when their currency devalued, denial of cryo by glaskosmos all come to mind. Backstabbing at UN, bedding with pakis are all par for the course. No need to needlessly feel, that this should be anything more than strictly business. When rubber meets the road, the relationship although has been tactical in nature but it is passed of as strategic. It is a stretch to call it, some topiwallah even went to the extent of calling it Indo-soviet bhai bhai.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 07 Nov 2015 05:15

Paul wrote:YIP, have you found any answers to your own question about Pak Army reserves Army reserve North and Army reserve South.

Are they in their peacetime locations or have been deployed for Zarb-e-Azb.

We need this vital piece of info to judge the PA state of readiness.

Paul, No I have not been able to locate more details from internet searches, but nothing has really changed for the better as far as Pak Army is concerned. It continues to remain stretched and stressed on the western front.

The important point to note here is that the S-400 system will work as a deterrent even when times are better for Pak Mil.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 07 Nov 2015 22:00

The Indian establishment is extremely satisfied with flattery and lot of emotions. Just as there has been penetration of MI5/CIA of the establishment, what is always overlooked and understated is the penetration of KGB. They have had almost unfettered access and shaped the commi establishment in the institutions that have actively pursued and continues to pursue Nehruvian Stalinist legacy. Many have ridden this gravy train and have benefit immensely due to this arrangement. Large sums of monies get ploughed into projects, driven by five-year plans, defense procurements to the determinant of indigenous development and improvement of infrastructure for meeting defense needs. The relationship with Soviet union has rendered the defense development in "busy work" (screw driver technology at best) mode. The Russian assets inside the well entrenched babucracy will not like to see any change and promote more of the same, that worked for last few lost decades.

It is an uphill task to sideline these interests who dream of opposing the US through such a partnership. Reality does not bear hope for such optimism. As already been stated every single nation that trucked with Soviets has not come out well, including Russia itself.

Most easy it is to point out how the US sailed nuclear armed boat into bay of bengal during 1971 in support of pakis who were raping, murdering hindus (genocide) in Bangladesh, what is missing is what did Soviet union/Russia do in such a situation? Did Russia float any nuclear armed boat in support of India/SDREs?
It is atleast very clear US was very committed to supporting its cause, either due to extreme hate of SDREs or whatever else it may be. Soviet/Russia doesn't have the wherewithal and gumption to do any such commitment on behalf of SDREs.

Russia's population is already in doldrums, its population is less than that of pakis. Very xenophobic and predujiced to the core to allow migration to mitigate the problem. Its own population is on migration spree. It has had poor record of allowing democracy to thrive in its population. Last time, they tried it brought forth their serious problem of alcoholism to the forefront. It threw up drunkard Boris Yelstin to the helm. The population is used to looking for succor from the mammaries of the state. Well, it took strong man ex-KGB Putin to come to the helm and undo what Boris Yelstin provided and instill stability.

How much can Russia commit itself to its cause. It will fight to the last SDRE when needed, but has it demonstrated any worthwhile commitment. Heck US for all its warts, backs up paki dogs even to the extent of sailing nuclear boat in bay of bengal. Russia doesn't have what it takes and no gumption other than to perpetuate its own little fiefdom around its area of influence. SDREs daydream of forging an alliance to counter US. Very wrong approach. They are in it to further their interests and it should be reciprocity from SDRE side. Take home message, don't rely on past nostalgia(dubious at best, determinental at worst), be taken by flattery and empty promises. Heck even pakis are better at negotiating to have tangible gains.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 07 Nov 2015 22:24

If memory is correct, the Soviets put a submarine near the US carrier and was ready to blast the carrier if it made a hostile move thus starting WW3.

http://in.rbth.com/articles/2011/12/20/ ... macy_14041

In an interview to a Russian TV programme after his retirement, Admiral Kruglyakov, who commanded the Pacific Fleet from 1970 to 1975, recalled that Moscow ordered the Russian ships to prevent the Americans and British from getting closer to “Indian military objects”. The genial Kruglyakov added: “The Chief Commander’s order was that our submarines should surface when the Americans appear. It was done to demonstrate to them that we had nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. So when our subs surfaced, they recognised us. In the way of the American Navy stood the Soviet cruisers, destroyers and atomic submarines equipped with anti-ship missiles. We encircled them and trained our missiles at the Enterprise. We blocked them and did not allow them to close in on Karachi, Chittagong or Dhaka."

At this point, the Russians intercepted a communication from the commander of the British carrier battle group, Admiral Dimon Gordon, to the Seventh Fleet commander: “Sir, we are too late. There are the Russian atomic submarines here, and a big collection of battleships.” The British ships fled towards Madagascar while the larger US task force stopped before entering the Bay of Bengal.

The Russian manoeuvres clearly helped prevent a direct clash between India and the US-UK combine.

you see? clearly the soviet union/russia were/are India's bestest friends.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 07 Nov 2015 23:10

^^^Believe in hard numbers. How many body bags of Russians have returned defending India, compared to body bags of americans returning defending pakistan?
Till that number is seen, it is all speculation onlee.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 Nov 2015 23:26

TSJones wrote:If memory is correct, the Soviets put a submarine near the US carrier and was ready to blast the carrier if it made a hostile move thus starting WW3.

you see? clearly the soviet union/russia were/are India's bestest friends.

TSJ Saar please to argue your point clearly & properly instead of dragging it to a pedestrian level.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 07 Nov 2015 23:33

JwalaMukhi wrote:^^^Believe in hard numbers. How many body bags of Russians have returned defending India, compared to body bags of americans returning defending pakistan?
Till that number is seen, it is all speculation onlee.

the Sov's/Russian friends of India are way smarter than Pakistan's American friends. It's not necessary. Merely showing their naval might makes the US run away.

addendum: sometimes the US makes big mistake and kills their Pakistan friends on the Afghanistan border. And we are very sorry when it happens. so we give them sniper pods for their f-16's.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Nov 2015 16:27

RE: Russia's current dalliance with Pakistan; are they really so stupid as to get cozy with the nation responsible for tens of thousands of their own dead in Afghanistan, the nation that seeks to project Islamic jihad into Central Asia and undermine the entire Russian federation?

It doesn't make sense from either a moral or strategic perspective. Almost hard to believe.

That is, unless the theory I advanced last year is actually correct. I made the prediction that India cozying up to the US and turning to them for arms (at Russia's expense) would result in Russia cozying up to China, with the natural side effect of them cozying up to Pakistan as well (at India's expense). After all, we left them little alternative. I maintained GOI's multi-billion arms purchases from the US were a huge strategic mistake and colossal waste of money, as it was costing us our all-weather friendship with Russia and the US would simply stab us in the back later.

My position was mocked and derided at the time.

(sigh)

I really hate being right all the time.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 08 Nov 2015 19:01

Or this means that Russia is not really our friend as we thought them to be. They were just using us to prop up their economy and when we wanted something and demanded something, they just play games with us like the Vikramaditya fiasco or the spare parts for MiG-29s and Su-30 MKIs.

Anyhoo, it all shows how important that India must develop and produce its own weapons.

I do not agree with Philip's assertions that we must get everything from Russia. That would be like totally becoming dependent on Russia and thereby becoming a slave to Russia's whims. Tactically brilliant but strategically deficient.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Nov 2015 19:15

YK,

Russia is acting in her own self interest based on her current visibility that she considers to be real.

That is the way nations behave. One exception, till now, was India, which went about (debatably (?)) making decisions on emotions and the past.

I think this GoI is a lot more grounded, in that she is behaving in her own interest, which will be very difficult for a lot of Indians to accept.

I have been toying with the idea of starting an "India-India: News and Analysis" thread - only to make a point, there are plenty that cover this topic, but none make it evident enough to focus attention on them.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Nov 2015 22:44

Last I checked it was the US, not Russia, that gifted $50 billion to Pakistan so they could buy sophisticated weapons and build a massive nuclear arsenal to wipe us out. The Russians' historic incompetence have made then an often-unreliable supplier but how can you compare that to the US actively working to empower our enemies and destroy us? Our issues with Russia can be resolved through pressure tactics and negotiation, but the US wants to see India destabilized, weakened and ultimately dismembered.

You speak of nations acting in self interest, but tell me, how did spending tens of billions on US arms benefit us? If we ever have to use them against any likely enemy, or if we ever test another nuclear device, they'll sanction us and render all that expensive gear useless. Maybe you believe those purchases bought us friendship? Last I checked the US is still fervently backing Pakistan, they're preparing to hand over Afghanistan to them, and they're backing ISIS\Al-Queda and all manner of Sunni Islamists in the ME, Central Asia and the subcontinent. The US is actively supporting all sorts of bad actors that wish us harm.

Let me know when the Russians start gifting billions to our enemies and backing terrorists; then you can talk to me about the wisdom of embracing America at Russia's expense.

How many times do we have to get screwed by the US before we learn our lesson? We're losing the only friend we have left in the world (Russia) in favour of a treacherous, backstabbing nation with a long track record of hurting us. Am I the only one that sees the obvious stupidity of this policy?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 08 Nov 2015 23:35

Y. Kanan wrote:Last I checked it was the US, not Russia, that gifted $50 billion to Pakistan so they could buy sophisticated weapons and build a massive nuclear arsenal to wipe us out. The Russians' historic incompetence have made then an often-unreliable supplier but how can you compare that to the US actively working to empower our enemies and destroy us? Our issues with Russia can be resolved through pressure tactics and negotiation, but the US wants to see India destabilized, weakened and ultimately dismembered.

That's wishful thinking. The Americans are looking out for America. Period. Fighting a war in Afghanistan requires keeping Pakistan on the payroll. India's concerns are and will remain secondary. For now. Leaving Afghanistan (not happening before 2016) in turn will mean washing their hands of Pakistan (1990 redux). And that too is pretty obvious to all parties - the Pakistanis at least are well aware of the clock ticking on their usefulness to the US - hence the desperation with which they've been soliciting China & Russia.

You speak of nations acting in self interest, but tell me, how did spending tens of billions on US arms benefit us? If we ever have to use them against any likely enemy, or if we ever test another nuclear device, they'll sanction us and render all that expensive gear useless. Maybe you believe those purchases bought us friendship? Last I checked the US is still fervently backing Pakistan, they're preparing to hand over Afghanistan to them, and they're backing ISIS\Al-Queda and all manner of Sunni Islamists in the ME, Central Asia and the subcontinent. The US is actively supporting all sorts of bad actors that wish us harm.

Spending billions (not 'tens of billion'), on US arms provided us with working reliable weapons worth billions. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. Weapons ought to be bought on their merits (a matrix that factors in cost, performance, reliability & after-sales support). If that means a US one, so be it. If its Russian or European, that's fine too.

Let me know when the Russians start gifting billions to our enemies and backing terrorists; then you can talk to me about the wisdom of embracing America at Russia's expense.

How many times do we have to get screwed by the US before we learn our lesson? We're losing the only friend we have left in the world (Russia) in favour of a treacherous, backstabbing nation with a long track record of hurting us. Am I the only one that sees the obvious stupidity of this policy?

Did Russia's 'friendship' with India come into play when it began exporting weapons and technology to China? It didn't. It accepted that the world had changed (i.e end of Cold War & rise of China) and followed a path that was in its best interest. Nothing wrong with that. Its the way of the world.

Trouble is, you've got your blinkers on when it comes to recognizing geopolitical realities. Like it or not, Russia's values its ties with China more than it does those with India. This isn't because we didn't rub their belly enough or give them enough chow (read: defence contracts). It isn't because Russia has any particular affection for China (if anything, they have a history of conflict).

The Russians value that relationship quite simply because they're at odds with the EU & US, and China helps offset that situation both economically & politically. Meanwhile our i.e India's interests lie in checking an increasingly belligerent and nationalistic China that's richer & stronger than we are. Which is where we have common ground with US, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines (and to a lesser extent - Australia, Singapore, Malaysia). Mutual warm feelings are not a prerequisite (though they help smooth the road).

US & Vietnam were on a opposite sides of a brutal conflict in the 60s & 70s, today they're fast become collaborators. Russia & China were allies between 1945 & 1967, enemies until 1991, and friendly thereafter. US & China were at war against each in 1900 (Boxer rebellion), allies in 1945, at war in 1950 (Korea), friendly by 1975, with bumpy relationship after 1989.

Common thread: there were all looking out for their own and nobody was handicapped by history.