Geopolitical thread

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 30 Jan 2009 03:20

Asia Foundation Proposes Cooperation 'Triangle' for US, China, India

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Jan 2009 07:30

Asia Foundation Proposes Cooperation 'Triangle' for US, China, India
By Steve Herman
New Delhi
29 January 2009

A call for the establishment of a diplomatic "triangle of cooperation" - among the United States, India and China - is receiving a mixed reception at its unveiling in New Delhi.

The influential Asia Foundation has rolled out its recommendations for the Obama administration's policy towards India. And, one key suggestion is hitting a log jam.

It is the call for three-way cooperation among Washington, New Delhi and Beijing. Proponents say such an effort will be essential to helping solve such thorny regional issues as instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The proposal, put forward by a task force of distinguished academics and diplomats, is in a chapter authored by former American Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Karl Inderfurth.

Former assistant secretary of state for South Asia, Karl Inderfurth
Former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Karl Inderfurth
"There have been some who have suggested that our approach to India and our strengthening of relations has been part of a containment of China - a hedge against China's rise," he said. "I think this would be a grave mistake. I know my Indian colleagues and friends would not want to be involved, in any way, shape or fashion, of a containment policy against China. We need to engage both countries on their own merits and find ways that we can work together."

The "cooperative triangle" is one of seven points for Indo-American relations put forth in a volume of policy recommendations, titled "America's Role in Asia," being released this week by the Asia Foundation.

The other six recommendations proposed: strengthening strategic ties; doubling two-way trade over the next several years; a broader nuclear dialogue; allowing American universities to operate in India; support by Washington for a permanent Indian seat on U.N. Security Council; and, collaboration to stabilize Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

The set of proposals earned a quick endorsement from the Indian prime minister's special envoy, Satinder Lambah.

"I fully agree with the seven-point agenda which has been given out by Karl Inderfurth," he said.

Others here, however, are less optimistic about the quick realization of an equal diplomatic partnership involving India, China and the United States.

Former Indian Ambassador to the United State Naresh Chandra said Beijing needs to alter its regional diplomacy before there can be talk of an equitable three-way relationship.

Former Indian ambassador to U.S., Naresh Chandra
Former Indian ambassador to U.S., Naresh Chandra
"The Chinese moves in our neighborhood display a certain pattern, which is somewhat disturbing. Their moves in Burma or with Pakistan; there is a kind of encirclement [of India] approach which we hope will change, over time," he said.

Chandra, also a former Indian cabinet secretary, called China's "circle of friends" - including Burma, North Korea, Sudan and Zimbabwe - "not that honorable."

Alarming to some veteran Indian diplomats is what they perceive as a recent shift by China to a strident tone, after India concluded an unprecedented civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States, last year.

Former Indian National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra noted China's state-controlled think-tanks and media are reopening old wounds, thought healed by Indo-Sino diplomatic agreements. These include the war between India and China, in 1962, and the sovereignty of two Indian states on Tibet's borders - Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh - where a significant percentage of the people follow Tibetan Buddhism.

"We have been reminded every other week about the humiliation we suffered in 1962. They keep on saying 'don't forget 1962.' … And there has been talk about China occupying what it calls southern Tibet, which is Arunachal Pradesh in India," said Mishra.

Mishra, a career diplomat, said India's government will be closely watching how President Obama formulates strategy towards China, hoping it will not adversely affect America's blossoming relationship with India.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Jan 2009 12:03

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/post ... retschina/

A New U.S. Policy for China?[/b]

Until today, C

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Jan 2009 17:51

The Asia Foundation is a CIA front and its viewpoints and agenda must be examined thoroughly with microscopic eyes.Hree are exceprts ,one from a de-classified CIA document too!

132. Memorandum From the Central Intelligence Agency to the 303 Committee/1/

/1/Source: Department of State, INR/IL Historical Files, Minutes of 303 Committee, 6/22/66. Secret; Eyes Only.
Washington, June 22, 1966.

SUBJECT
The Asia Foundation: Proposed Improvements in Funding Procedures

1. Summary

The Asia Foundation (TAF), a Central Intelligence Agency proprietary, was established in 1954 to undertake cultural and educational activities on behalf of the United States Government in ways not open to official U.S. agencies. Over the past twelve years TAF has accomplished its assigned mission with increasing effectiveness and has, in the process, become a widely-known institution, in Asia and the United States. TAF is now experiencing inquiries regarding its sources of funds and connections with the U.S. Government from the aggressive leftist publication, Ramparts./2/ It is conceivable that such inquiries will lead to a published revelation of TAF's CIA connection. In the present climate of national dissent and in the wake of recent critical press comment on CIA involvement with American universities, we feel a public allegation that CIA funds and controls TAF would be seized upon, with or without proof, and magnified beyond its actual significance to embarrass the Administration and U.S. national interests at home and abroad. Some immediate defensive and remedial measures are required [2-1/2 lines of source text not declassified].

Another excerpt .

"The Asia Foundation was founded in 1954 and throughout the 1960s had an annual budget of about $8 million. This money was used to support Asian schools and libraries, give travel grants to Asians for international conferences, and in support of expanded Pacific trade. In 1967 it was revealed that they were receiving CIA funds. Victor Marchetti, once an executive assistant to the CIA's deputy director, is less delicate -- he says Asia Foundation was established by the CIA and until 1967 was heavily subsidized by them, even though some of their activities were legitimate.

These days the National Endowment for Democracy model is preferred over those old, risky, secret CIA conduits, so in 1984 the Asia Foundation Act provided for funds from the Department of State. In 1987 the Foundation received $10 million from State and another $3.7 million from AID, in addition to private support (88 percent of which was in the form of donated books) and matching Asian contributions. We wonder if Asia Foundation is really out of the U.S. intelligence loop after all. "

PS:It is most interesting to see what the Asia Foundation proposes,as such a linkage would be an attempt to scuttle an Indo-Sino-Russian Asian trimumvirate and shatter the Shanghai Cooperation Oraganisation (SCO) which includes China,Russia and several Central Asian states.The resurgence in some sections of the US administartion to turn the clock back to Cold War days and isolate Russia during the Bush regime,is still strong.The Clinton's close ties with China and Hillary now being Sec. of State, (Clinton was funded allegedly with PL Army money,look up this site "Bill Clinton's China connection" @ http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/polit ... ction.html ) perhaps is the reason for this new Asian gambit.

Meanwhile,N.Korea has started a new Cols War with the South that might even escalate into a military spat if handled badly.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ja ... uth-korea1

North Korea scraps all agreements with South KoreaNon-aggression pact among deals torn up as Pyongyang increases risk of military clash

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2009 22:14

From above post about Asia Foundation!

"We have been reminded every other week about the humiliation we suffered in 1962. They keep on saying 'don't forget 1962.' … And there has been talk about China occupying what it calls southern Tibet, which is Arunachal Pradesh in India," said Mishra.

I dont know about Indian establishment but Bollywood has cast off its memory of the 1962 debacle. Taek for instance the pot boiler "Chandni Chowk to China" It has a hilaroius movie but the premise is that a Chinese warrior /liberator is re-incarnated India and the Chinese people seek him out in India and take him to China to seek relief from their oppressors!

What it means is atleast in the minds of the movie script writers they(Indians) still own the Chinese mind just as it was centuries ago before colonization cut off the links.

In retrospect the elite should have let Gen. Sunderji fight the Chinese at Sumdrong Chu. A thrashing was required to restore the Indian Armed Forces and more importantly the Indian public's honor.
1962 debacle was an ambush by the PRC and others to reduce India's stature in Asia and the world.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Jan 2009 23:11

ramana wrote:
1962 debacle was an ambush by the PRC and others to reduce India's stature in Asia and the world.

It was to show Nehru and his people their place. The prevailing notion at that time was that Nehru and India had gained international recognition more than it deserved.

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 31 Jan 2009 16:24

Security Council reform talks to start in February
http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/200 ... OUNCIL.php

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 07 Feb 2009 22:10

X-posted :

U.S. Can Ship Afghan Aid Through Russia, Kremlin Says
By ELLEN BARRY
Published: February 6, 2009

MOSCOW — Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said Friday that Russia had fast-tracked approval of a plan to allow the United States military to ship nonlethal equipment across Russian territory to Afghanistan.

“We gave our consent, literally, in 24 hours,” he said. “We expect our American partners to provide a concrete request with the quantity and description of cargo. We shall grant the relevant permission as soon as it happens.”

Russia has emphasized its desire to cooperate with the United States and NATO in Afghanistan since the announcement on Tuesday that Kyrgyzstan, a close Russian ally, will close the Manas air base, a critical link in supplying the war effort in Afghanistan. Losing access to the base is a serious setback to President Obama, who hopes to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.

Though Washington scrambled to dissuade Kyrgyz officials, the national security chief, Adakhan Madumarov, said Friday, “The fate of the air base is sealed.”

Competing interests shape Russian policy on Afghanistan. The Kremlin is eager to ensure stability in the region out of fear that the heroin trade and Islamic extremism could spread across its borders. But many Russians also feel deep frustration at the presence of the United States military in former Soviet republics.

---------------------

Afghan road gives India a boost
Feb 04, 2009 04:30 AM
$1.2 billion investment in Afghanistan projects seen as 'nightmare' for neighbouring Pakistanis

The new highway linked the Afghan towns of Zaranj, on the Iran border, and Delaram, 217 kilometres to the northeast.

It was constructed at the cost of six Indian and 129 Afghan lives, victims of attacks by an increasingly muscular Taliban insurgency. And it was hailed as a landmark in co-operation between India and Afghanistan.

Its strategic value – connecting the Iranian port of Chahabar with major Afghan cities – set alarm bells ringing in neighbouring Pakistan, whose relations with India are at a low point after Islamic militants carried out a massive attack on Mumbai in November.

A NATO official hinted that transit through Iran, once condemned as part of the "axis of evil," might be an alternative to the escalating risks of Pakistan's lawless borders.

If the Indian-built road becomes part of a new transit route, it would be an added boost to relations between India and the West, even as the U.S. cools toward Pakistan.

"It's a Pakistani nightmare," said Kamran Bokhari, director of Middle East analysis for the U.S.-based intelligence analysis company Stratfor.

"India believes the only way to neutralize Pakistan and keep it in the box, is to have good relations with the Afghans.

"But Pakistan's situation gets worse and worse."

A series of projects that have made India Afghanistan's largest regional supporter.

Since the Taliban were defeated in 2001, India has spent $1.2 billion (U.S.) in Afghanistan on projects ranging from dams and roads to backing for international agencies' nutritional campaigns.

It has about 4,000 aid and security officials working in the country, and has trained Afghan police officers.

Indian aid is visible on the ground. Hungry Afghan school children nibble high-nutrition biscuits between classes

Once-parched villages are rejuvenated by newly dug tube wells..

Homes that were in the dark are connected to power sources with the construction of transmission lines.

In a hearts-and-minds campaign, India is on the home stretch.

Pakistan, which tried to shore up its security and influence in a hostile neighbourhood after the Soviet invasion of 1979, backed Islamist insurgents who have added to Afghans' misery.

Afghanistan is only one forum for rounds of rivalry between India and Pakistan that began with the partition of India in 1947 and continued through a succession of bloody wars, including conflicts over Muslim-dominated Kashmir.

A nuclear arms race raised the stakes of the conflict.

But Pakistan's backing for the militants, including the Taliban, has sparked outbreaks of violence that have killed hundreds of Pakistanis, including former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

Now, says GTA-based security and defence analyst Sunil Ram, "Pakistan is using both Afghanistan and Kashmir as a means to get rid of its more radical elements, sending them on a jihad."

Meanwhile, says Bokhari, "Pakistan's Islamist project has backfired, they're being attacked by their own creations, the U.S. is on their tail, and Afghanistan still has a hostile regime."

Al-qaeda 3.5.7. version being apprehended didnt work. Neither did, Nato Terminals being bombed by "miscreants", closing down of Khyber pass towards FC operations, after the threats of peace deals with taliban.

Pakistans release of AQ "Photochor" Khan was a last ditch attempt at nuclear blackmail aimed at the world(especially US) , points to pakistans desperation on being down to its last cards as it continues to bluff away.. Interesting months ahead..

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 08 Feb 2009 03:25

http://english.pravda.ru/business/finan ... ic_China-0

US economic policy may lead to confrontation with China

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Feb 2009 09:43

Holocaust Denial Row Damages Church, Vatican Expert Says

The Catholic church sees the faithful leaving the church in droves after the controversial lifting of the excommunication of a group of rightist bishops, a German Vatican expert said Saturday ... . . . .

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Feb 2009 01:15

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/02/ ... alysis.php

Analysis: Biden promises foreign policy shifts

In the course of the weekend gathering, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani spoke of a "golden opportunity for the United States" — suggesting if Washington was serious about conciliation Tehran could respond in kind. He said more than once that the U.S. needed to change "to a chess game instead of a boxing match."

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 10 Feb 2009 04:07

The Persistence of Ideology

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 10 Feb 2009 06:52

Gerard wrote:The Persistence of Ideology

Definitely an article for future reference.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 13 Feb 2009 02:53

Is the Brown-Sarkozy honeymoon over?

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Feb 2009 10:56

Chavez wins vote to scrap term limits in Venezuela

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Feb 2009 17:43

3 cheers for Chavez.The whole world is now "Socialist",says one famous capitalist rag! Referendums are truly democratic and he needs to be lauded for seeking popular support.

Three "boos" for the Middle Kingdom's heir apparent (from "Gin & Tonic" to "Pink Gin") to the Communist throne though.His apalling manners indicate trouble for the globe when this ranting and raving Communist rat ascends to the throne of the Middle Kingdom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -rant.html

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 17 Feb 2009 06:25

Just reading that nonsense about Chinese censorship makes you glad our respective countries operate as they do.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 17 Feb 2009 07:02

Keshav wrote:Just reading that nonsense about Chinese censorship makes you glad our respective countries operate as they do.

Except for BR, of course. They prefer politburo censorship.

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 17 Feb 2009 07:30

Sanjay M wrote:
Keshav wrote:Just reading that nonsense about Chinese censorship makes you glad our respective countries operate as they do.
Except for BR, of course. They prefer politburo censorship.

EDIT:
I'm sorry, you cannot defame the BR moderators

COUNTER EDIT:
You cannot censor me!

COUNTER-COUNTER EDIT:
Censor Wars!

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 20 Feb 2009 06:57

Bahrain halts gas talks with Iran over insult

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 20 Feb 2009 09:45

X-Posting

UN talks to expand Security Council begin

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Feb 2009 07:46

I'm thinking that it would be in India's interest to see both Germany and Japan on the Security Council. Personally, I feel that Britain should be removed, as they no longer have enough power to play a useful role.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Feb 2009 08:25

Czech President of EU Bluntly Compares EU to USSR

Heh, this guy has a lot of spine

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 24 Feb 2009 11:17

Legacy of Nazi experimentation?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/world ... twins.html

Heh, anybody remember The Boys from Brazil?

And how come we don't have any India-LatAm thread? If we can have India-Africa thread, we can have an India-LatAm thread.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 28 Feb 2009 14:42

The great Atlanticist unity is under threat:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/27/europe/union.php

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Mar 2009 04:55

http://203.197.197.71/presentation/left ... gamer.aspx

India needs to be a Great Gamer

Harsh V. Pant

INDIA’S GROWING interests in Central Asia are well-recognised. There is a growing convergence between the US and Indian interests, especially their reluctance to see the region fall under the exclusive influence of Russia or China. India was worried in the 1990s when Russian influence in Central Asia weakened substantially with a commensurate rise in the Chinese influence. This negatively impacted upon Indian threat perceptions which stabilised only after the growing US presence in the region since 2001.

India views itself as a stabiliser and security provider in the region and, with its growing economic clout, an attractive economic power. India’s interest in securing reliable energy supplies and trade through Central Asia remains substantial. India’s ties with the regional states are growing. It has little incentive to support forces that seek destabilisation in Afghanistan. It is no surprise that India opened its air base in Ayni, Tajikistan, in 2002 to guard against growing instability in the region. India’s ties with regional states are growing and the moderate Islam of the region makes it imperative for India to engage the region more substantively. Other powers, barring China, have recognised this reality and have sought to harness India towards achieving common goals. Russia, for example, supports Indian membership in the SCO.

The Obama administration has indicated its willingness to bargain with Russia on major global issues. Yet, as the recent events in Kyrgyzstan demonstrate, the underlying tone of the US-Russia bilateral relationship is becoming more competitive. This will make it harder for India to pursue its interests in Central Asia. As such it becomes imperative for Indian diplomacy to work towards major power cooperation to bring some measure of stability to Afghanistan as well as the larger Central Asian region.

Harsh V. Pant teaches in King’s College London

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 01 Mar 2009 04:57

ASEAN Wants to be Like EU

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerhe ... be-like-EU

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 01 Mar 2009 17:05

With drug-war violence increasingly spiraling out of control in Mexico, media and experts are speculating on the increasing possibility of Mexico as a failed state approaching collapse.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 63,00.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7914235.stm

A report published in January by the United States Joint Forces Command called Mexico and Pakistan "two large and important states [which] bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse".

http://www.laprensa-sandiego.org/curren ... 022709.htm

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... ry_id=4732

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blog ... psing.aspx

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/mexi ... ling-state

Under what scenarios and event triggers would US military forces engage in direct intervention on Mexican territory?

What are the options and consequences, when it comes to intervention or non-intervention?

Comparing Pakistan and Mexico, I see potential similarities in the pattern of developments:

- Mexicans strongly object to US forces crossing the border onto their soil
- upswell of local popular support for drug cartels
- Mexican law enforcement forced to vacate entire provinces
- Mexican govt signs peace agreements with drug cartels, declaring these as 'victories in the war on drugs'
- US Predator drone strikes to decapitate key enemy targets
- Escalation by drug cartels extends to heavy retaliation onto US territory (ie. organized armed attacks on US law enforcement agencies, personnel, families, car-bombings)

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 01 Mar 2009 17:55

H.Clinton in China. New turning in US big game? Should India be worried?:

"We have every reason to believe that the United States and China will recover and that together we will help to lead the world recovery," Clinton said as she held a news conference with the Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi. "I appreciate greatly the Chinese government's continuing confidence in United States treasuries. I think that's a well grounded confidence."

China, which has foreign exchange reserves worth around $2tn, is the world's largest holder of US government debt.

Yang said: "In making use of our foreign exchange reserves, we want to ensure the safety of the reserves, the good value of them and also the liquidity of the forex reserves."

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 01 Mar 2009 18:04

Igorr wrote:"I appreciate greatly the Chinese government's continuing confidence in United States treasuries. I think that's a well grounded confidence."

China, which has foreign exchange reserves worth around $2tn, is the world's largest holder of US government debt.

History in the making.. Capitalistas seeking bail-outs from Communistas and ~ vice versa. IMF and World Bank to follow suit..

Igorr, definitely bad news for India. I will be posting two sets of news items, to clear the air a bit wrt. your question.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 01 Mar 2009 18:29

Poland Looks Beyond U.S. Missile-Defense Shield, Sikorski Says
By Viola Gienger

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Poland is looking beyond a missile- defense system that President Barack Obama might scrap and is focused on other elements of a security deal with the U.S. while mending ties with Russia, the top Polish diplomat said.

Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said his country is most interested in U.S. pledges in the agreement he signed last year in the face of Russian opposition, including an American garrison with Patriot interceptor missiles. The two sides also agreed to act jointly on military and non-military threats.

“What we would like to be honored is what went along with” the missile-defense system, Sikorski, 46, said in an interview yesterday during a visit to Washington that included a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “We paid quite a political price for the agreement, both in terms of internal politics and in our relations with Russia.”

Sikorski’s stance follows repeated signals from Obama’s national security officials that they might delay or drop the system devised under President George W. Bush. Russia has described the proposed shield as a threat.

Sikorski said Polish leaders aren’t “lobbyists” for the missile-defense system, to be located in Poland and the Czech Republic and intended to ward off potential missile attacks from Iran. “It’s a U.S. project and a U.S. decision,” he said.

Poland and other eastern European nations are gauging their relationships with the new U.S. administration after building close ties with Bush, who was eager to draw on them as partners amid tensions with Iran and Russia. Governments in the region also are pushing for one of their leaders to take over as Secretary-General of NATO when Jaap de Hoop Scheffer’s term ends in July.
..
....

The above is the effect of coercive diplomacy on the part of Russia.. as a result Poland got thrown under the bus(A note to all the be Amrikas strategic poodle a.ka why did India explode the bum, crowd). But the "over hyped" Indian babus are busy making piligrimages to Foggy Bottom only to return and convince the Indian Public that "Pakistan has accepted the Kasab is a Pakistani", "FBI hu Akbar they gave us EviDANCE" .. It's a victory.. and now "Zardaari is sincere in fighting terrorism" from Pranab Mukherjee after Holbrookes visit.

SCO invites India to attend meeting on Afghanistan
2009-02-28 18:27:19
Xinhua

NEW DELHI, Feb. 28 (Xinhua) -- The six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has invited India to attend an international conference on Afghanistan to be held in Moscow on March 27, according to a report by local daily the Asian Age on Saturday.

SCO secretary-general Bolat Nurgaliev Friday held talks with Indian defense and security analysts in New Delhi and called on India to contribute to the success of the conference, which he hoped would "frankly discuss the situation in Afghanistan and its influence on neighboring states," according to the report.

"India had an important role to play in strengthening the SCO. We respect India's peaceful foreign policy. We share common positions on many issues. India has good relations with all SCO members and the prospects for future relations are very bright," the report quoted Nurgaliev as saying.

The Russian diplomat also said that the Iranian nuclear issue should not be solved with the use of force or the threat of use of force, and called on the international community to "involve (Iran) and not isolate it," said the report.

Russia is the current rotating chair of the SCO which includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Kyrghyz Republic and Tajikistan. India holds observer status at SCO.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 01 Mar 2009 18:52

U.S. and China Revive Military Talks

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2009 23:04

Poland always gets thrown under the bus historically. Its a Roman Catholic country on the cross-roads of orthodox Slavs.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Mar 2009 23:23

Sanjay M wrote:With drug-war violence increasingly spiraling out of control in Mexico, media and experts are speculating on the increasing possibility of Mexico as a failed state approaching collapse.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blog ... psing.aspx

Under what scenarios and event triggers would US military forces engage in direct intervention on Mexican territory?

What are the options and consequences, when it comes to intervention or non-intervention?

Last week Mclaughlin group discussed the question - when will Mexico be taken over by USA.
This question will become serious in another few months.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 02 Mar 2009 02:15

If the US military were to become heavily involved in war across the border, what is the possibility of external actors like Chavez or AlQaeda seizing the opportunity to intervene in the situation? After all, the Mexican conflict is shaping into an intensely bitter struggle, and any criminals on the losing end due to US intervention might be very open to assistance from external actors.

Perhaps Chavez doesn't have the guts to take on the US by backing armed factions near its border, but AlQaeda certainly has that audacity. With their complexions, trans-nationalist arab militants could certainly blend in easily with the Mexican population.

The thing is that AlQaeda would certainly like to come within striking range of the American homeland, instead of battling with them from afar. As 9/11 proved, the ability to strike your opponent's homeland has a powerful psychological effect.

We all know how the Spanish Civil War became a magnet for leftists around the world to join that fight. Is there any potential for a Mexican Civil War to mutate into something similar?

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 02 Mar 2009 02:48

Sanjay M wrote:With drug-war violence increasingly spiraling out of control in Mexico, media and experts are speculating on the increasing possibility of Mexico as a failed state approaching collapse.

So, why doesn't Mexico simply just legalize the drugs? What are the logical reasons why an Amsterdam type scenario will not work?

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 02 Mar 2009 02:52

Sanjay M wrote:If the US military were to become heavily involved in war across the border, what is the possibility of external actors like Chavez or AlQaeda seizing the opportunity to intervene in the situation? After all, the Mexican conflict is shaping into an intensely bitter struggle, and any criminals on the losing end due to US intervention might be very open to assistance from external actors.

Perhaps Chavez doesn't have the guts to take on the US by backing armed factions near its border, but AlQaeda certainly has that audacity. With their complexions, trans-nationalist arab militants could certainly blend in easily with the Mexican population.

The thing is that AlQaeda would certainly like to come within striking range of the American homeland, instead of battling with them from afar. As 9/11 proved, the ability to strike your opponent's homeland has a powerful psychological effect.

We all know how the Spanish Civil War became a magnet for leftists around the world to join that fight. Is there any potential for a Mexican Civil War to mutate into something similar?

Sanjay ji good point... the left and Islamists go well together. With the West slowly beginning to realize that victory may not be possible in AFPAK this just might be the best chance for AQ to take the war away from AFPAK and back into the American continents. Sort of the Stalingrad of the War against terror. One decisive blow by AQ with the help of the Compadres in Latin America will have the West hopping mad...An Islamist-Left collaboration in an already war-torn Latin America will be a threat too great for the US and we may see Chavez (the greatest left driving force in Latin America now) being the next target for US....possible a change in regime perhaps?

But how history plays itself eh? If this alliance does come to fruit then it will be the Islamists and the Left fighting for the downfall of the West. In Afghanistan in 80's it was the Islamists and the West working together to bring down the Communists...

And of course Chavez can always engage in plausible deniability and talk of "non-state" actors !

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 02 Mar 2009 03:38

Heh, from AFPAK to TEXMEX?

The drug cartels' influence certainly extends across both sides of the US-Mexican border. Like Taliban forces mainly shifting across the border into Pak tribal areas due to US pressure from the north, likewise if drug cartels face too much difficulty on Mexican soil due to US-backed military pressure, then the cartels could shift across the border into the neighboring US states. At least there they can clamour for their "civil rights", while blending in among the large Mexican-American population.

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 02 Mar 2009 15:22

Tilak wrote:History in the making.. Capitalistas seeking bail-outs from Communistas and ~ vice versa. IMF and World Bank to follow suit..

Igorr, definitely bad news for India. I will be posting two sets of news items, to clear the air a bit wrt. your question.

I allways remembered for those who have forgott Sino-US honeymoon in 70-80th that the world politics is still remained volatile. The clintonians have started about reshaping Sino-American ties way before Obama came to presidency. Now they speak about Chimerica - the new global economic and political axis. So I ask myself: if there is Chimerica why should not start with Indropa or Indrussia?

At the heart of this crisis is the huge imbalance between the United States, with its current account deficit in excess of 1 percent of world gross domestic product, and the surplus countries that finance it: the oil exporters, Japan and emerging Asia. Of these, the relationship between China and America has become the crucial one. More than anything else, it has been China's strategy of dollar reserve accumulation that has financed America's debt habit. Chinese savings were a key reason U.S. long-term interest rates stayed low and the borrowing binge kept going. Now that the age of leverage is over, "Chimerica" -- the partnership between the big saver and the big spender -- is key.

In essence, we need the Chinese to be supportive of U.S. monetary easing and fiscal stimulus by doing more of the same themselves. There needs to be agreement on a gradual reduction of the Chimerican imbalance via increased U.S. exports and increased Chinese imports. The alternative -- a sudden reduction of the imbalance via lower U.S. imports and lower Chinese exports -- would be horrible.

There also needs to be an agreement to avoid a rout in the dollar market and the bond market, which is what will happen if the Chinese stop buying U.S. government bonds, the amount of which is now set to increase massively.

Memo to President-elect Barack Obama: Don't wait until April for the next G-20 summit. Call a meeting of the Chimerican G-2 for the day after your inaugural. Don't wait for China to call its own meeting of a new "G-1" in Beijing.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Mar 2009 11:13

A blast from the past,about WW2 and a lucky escape for Gen.Patton.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 834918.ece

Declassified MI5 file shows Nazi spy almost changed course of war
A convoy of the supply ships travelling across the channel in 1939

A convoy of the supply ships travelling across the channel in 1939: a declassified file from MI5 has revealed a Nazi spy almost changed the course of the war
Michael Evans, Defence Editor

A Nazi spy came within days of uncovering one of the Allies' most important missions and possibly changing the direction of the Second World War.

The story of a Portuguese wireless operator and the dramatic decision to pluck him from his vessel on the high seas to prevent him from betraying the position of a huge convoy bound for North Africa is revealed for the first time in a declassified MI5 file released by the National Archives.

Gastao de Freitas Ferraz was being paid by German intelligence to send coded messages about convoys to U-boat commanders and was on the tail of the Allied warships.

The convoy included the USS Augusta, an American light cruiser that was carrying no less a person than General George S.Patton. General Patton was at that time in command of Operation Torch, the planned invasion of French North Africa, which was aimed at destroying the Axis forces fighting the British there and improving naval control of the Mediterranean.

* Diana Mosley taught children Nazi salute, new MI5 files reveal

* MI5 agent's affair caused security alert

The Allies considered Operation Torch so important that they fed the Germans with false intelligence: their double agent Garbo told the Germans that the Allies were planning an attack in either northern France or Norway.

Ferraz, who had been transmitting encrypted messages from his fishing boat, Gil Eannes, in the Atlantic, unwittingly had it in his power to sink the Allies' plans by reporting the size and direction of the convoy. But unknown to the Germans, the messages were being intercepted and deciphered by the codebreakers at Bletchley Park, Buckinghamshire. On August 9, 1942, MI5 was sent a “most secret” letter that referred to the “alleged unneutral behaviour” of a certain Portuguese wireless operator. Gil Eannes, a former Portuguese warship, was part of a large fleet authorised to operate in the Atlantic because of Portugal's neutrality. On June 28, 1942, it sailed out of Lisbon for Newfoundland and on its arrival there was searched. Nothing suspicious was found and neither Ferraz nor the other radio operator on board showed any sign of guilt. No orders were given at this stage to detain them because the only evidence about coded radio messages from the vessel was based on the most secret source of all - the Ultra material gleaned from the Enigma machines.

Sir David Petrie, the director-general of MI5, was personally involved in assessing the risk and on October 24 MI5 wrote to the Foreign Office: “There is no possible room for doubt that de Freitas is a German agent.” MI5 asked for Gil Eannes to be intercepted at sea: “You will, of course, appreciate that if any action is to be taken, it must be taken forthwith.”

With the fishing vessel getting closer to the Operation Torch convoy, the Foreign Office agreed, and the Admiralty sent out a secret signal to all relevant commands: “If the vessel is sighted West of 11 degrees West, she should be ordered not to use W/T [wireless transmission], de Freitas [Ferraz] should be removed and in order to ensure that no further use of W/T is made, an armed guard should be put on board.”

The warship HMS Duke of York duly intercepted Gil Eannes and Ferraz was detained and taken to Gibraltar. He was transferred to MI5's interrogation centre at Camp 020 in Ham, West London, where he confessed. After the war he was deported to Portugal.

Christopher Andrew, the official biographer of MI5, said: “Gastao de Freitas Ferraz was on the tail of Patton's troops and would have told the Germans where they were really going and could have affected the outcome of the whole war.”