India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

[Rahul M]

Rahul M, it won't be before evening tomorrow, if everything goes all right.

thanks SSridhar. and if something does go wrong first time around we have another 3 days of waiting right ??

[RajeshA]

NSG begins talks on India waiver by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

The U.S. urged the adoption of the waiver as it stood “in a nice but not so forceful way.” The diplomat divided NSG members into three groups based on their opening interventions. Those who unambiguously backed adoption of the text included the Czech Republic, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine as well as Canada. A second group of “like-minded countries” said they wished to be “constructive” but wanted some additions and conditions included in the text. Among these were Austria, Ireland and New Zealand. Switzerland too expressed concerns, he said. The third group consisted of those who came out in favour of the proposal but who did not appear overly enthusiastic. This group, according to the diplomat, included Germany and Japan, as well as Australia.

[RajeshA]

The Austrian Greens at Work



Poster says: "Show Courage. Austria must reject the USA-India Nuclear Deal"

The Austrian Green Party is demonstrating in front of the Japanese Permanent Representation to the IAEA, where the NSG meeting was taking place, under the able leadership of Ulrike Lunacek, the Spokesperson for External Affairs; Development Politics; Equal Treatment for Le$bians, Gay$, and TransGender People; Representative of the Austrian Green Party in the National Assembly.

[putnanja]

To US draft, NSG sceptics want to add fine print

To US draft, NSG sceptics want to add fine print
Pranab Dhal Samanta
Posted online: Friday, August 22, 2008 at 0144 hrs Print Email
N-Deal: Make Hyde Act template: New Zealand, Ireland

New Delhi, August 21: The move for a clean exemption for India by the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group has drawn concerns from some members which have asked Washington to consider amendments to the draft it has circulated in the larger interest of non-proliferation.

While fewer countries countered India at the briefing that Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon made to NSG countries before the plenary went in for its closed-door meeting in Vienna this afternoon, sources said, there was pressure building up to “tighten” the draft a bit more.

In this context, Washington has still kept open the possibility of another meeting in early September.

Despite reservations, almost all NSG members spoke in favour of India being given an exemption but some of them felt that the draft circulated by the US fell short on certain counts. Key among them was a need to make it clear that cooperation would end in case India conducted a nuclear test in the future and a reference to CTBT.

This point, sources said, was flagged off even before the meeting by New Zealand which felt that US should include conditions on testing given that the same is also mentioned in the Hyde Act. In fact, New Zealand and to some extent, Ireland, felt that the conditions in the Hyde Act should act as a template of sorts for the NSG as well.

These two countries along with Austria and Norway continued to repeat the line that the exemption would “damage” the NPT and demanded strong conditions, knowing well that India had very limited flexibility in terms of accepting more changes to the existing draft. However, sources pointed out that there was no indication of any united diplomatic effort to challenge the exemption.

While these countries were somewhat “extreme” in their scepticism, there are countries like Canada which were keen on pushing for a review or monitoring mechanism for India. On this count, sources said, suggestions were mooted to have a closer inspection regime.

Though “milder” in their scepticism as they do not want to annoy India, countries like Canada, Japan and even Australia seemed to indicate that they would be more comfortable with a tighter exemption note. For instance, some of them were keen to also place a prohibition on enrichment and reprocessing technology.

On this issue, sources said, the concerns were largely commercial as some of them felt that Russia and France could use E&R technologies to “sweeten” their commercial prospects with India while others may not be able to do so for domestic compulsions.

At the start of the day, India briefed all NSG members at the IAEA building with Menon making a strong case for an exemption on the basis of India’s unblemished non-proliferation record. He gave elaborate explanations on India’s future energy requirements and the steps it had taken to ensure there would be no proliferation threat. Also, the Indian side underlined the positive effect such a deal would have on climate change.

Sources said that barring a couple, not many member-states raised questions. After lunch, the NSG members moved to the Japanese embassy in Vienna where there is a conference room for NSG meetings. The closed door session discussed these issues in details and reservations were heard from several countries. Later, sources said, Indian and US diplomats discussed the developments of the day.

India also remained in close touch with France and Russia for creating diplomatic pressure on countries raising the red flags. However, the discussions were still underway and it was not certain whether another meeting would be needed in September. US, for its part, has conveyed that India should be prepared for another round early next month.

For Washington, it is important that process is concluded by September 3 so that it can work on the presidential determination which can be presented before the US Congress when it meets on September 8.

The extreme sceptics

• New Zealand and Ireland: Hyde Act should be the template. US should include conditions on testing given that the same is also mentioned in the Hyde Act.

• Austria and Norway joined New Zealand and Ireland to argue that exemption would “damage” the NPT and demanded strong conditions

The mild sceptics

• Canada pushing for a review or monitoring mechanism for India, closer inspection regime.

• Canada, Japan and even Australia indicated they wanted tighter exemption note, prohibition on enrichment and reprocessing technology.

[RajeshA]

The Psychology of Negotiations:

3 NSG countries question waiver by Ashok Taneja: The Tribune

Actually there are a few countries, without whose opposition, India could have even walked away with the draft as was presented, but ....

The opposition comes from: New Zealand, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, ...

It is actually a brilliant tactic to have a few voices, at least two, in the opposition. The opposition builds its strategy based on the combined strength. With time, when the hard opponents see, that one by one their ranks are becoming sparse, they too start feeling demotivated. This crumble effect is very effective for psyops.
On the other hand, if the opposition did not contain even a single soft opponent, only hard opponents, then even with time there is no decimation in their ranks and they feel strengthened and more motivated.

In this case, I am glad that Switzerland, Ireland and Norway are also in that group. Tomorrow one by one, they will start making concessions dragging even the hard nuts to the same concessions, until they completely cross over to the ranks of supporters. By this time, on the one hand, they would have softened the stand of the hard opponents who too would be making concessions in order to keep unity with the soft opponents, and on the other hand, the hard opponents will get a defeating feeling, when the soft opponents cross over.

[awagaman]

Naysayers set to delay India decision
Siddharth Varadarajan
The Hindu 22/8/08
http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/22/stories ... 830100.htm

Naysayers set to delay India decision

Siddharth Varadarajan

U.S., India to examine ‘suggestions’

Vienna: The Nuclear Suppliers Group began formal deliberations here Thursday on whether to grant India a waiver from its export guidelines but it is looking increasing as if internal differences within the cartel will lead to any decision being deferred to a second sitting to be convened perhaps two weeks from now.

“The German chair is trying sincerely to do this by tomorrow [Friday],” one diplomat from an NSG member state told The Hindu at the end of discussions on the first day. “But to me it seems as if another round of discussions will be needed at a later date.” His assessment was shared by diplomats from a number of other countries.

The NSG plenary will resume at 1 p.m. on Friday, with member states using the morning to conduct “bilateral discussions.”

According to accounts provided by diplomats who took part in the meeting, a number of countries made statements offering “ideas and concepts” which they felt the United States needs to include in its waiver proposal. These ideas, said diplomats, did not take the form of “precise language” or concrete amendments but centred around finding ways in which the NSG could have “more confidence” in India standing by its non-proliferation commitments.

“What will happen now is that the U.S. will mull over these ideas, and come back to the NSG tomorrow afternoon,” said one diplomat. “And I presume they will spend tonight and tomorrow discussing how these ideas and suggestions could be incorporated, if at all, in the proposed waiver.”

While declining to go into the specific suggestions dissenting countries made, one diplomat hinted that some delegates were looking for an assurance from Delhi on nuclear testing going beyond reiteration of its moratorium.

“For example, if the other major nuclear countries which have to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in order for it to enter into force do so, then is it right that India should remain outside?” he asked. “So can we think of some way to say India will not stand in the way of the treaty entering into force?”

Among the dissidents were New Zealand, Austria and Ireland. But suggestions were made by many countries, including those that had come out in favour of the deal such as Canada and Japan, said one NSG member country diplomat. “Positive” and “constructive” were the two adjectives bandied about the most. “Look, I think you [India] will be happy with the outcome,” one East European official said. “Both sides will not be totally happy,” offered another, adding, “I think there is full awareness within the NSG of what are the Indian red lines and no one has any intention of crossing them.” The fact that not a single country opposed the principle of granting India an exemption, said an NSG official, was a very positive thing. “The rest is detail.”

The group began its meeting in the morning with opening statements from a number of countries and adjourned to attend a brief presentation by Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon. But it was in the post-lunch session that the debate over whether to approve the waiver or not began in right earnest.

American and Indian officials are expected to sit together late into Thursday night to see whether there is scope to reach common ground on the objections raised. It was presumably with such a scenario in mind that India sent a high-powered delegation of seven top officials to Vienna for this meeting.

[RajeshA]

Naysayers set to delay India decision by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

“For example, if the other major nuclear countries which have to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in order for it to enter into force do so, then is it right that India should remain outside?” he asked. “So can we think of some way to say India will not stand in the way of the treaty entering into force?”

IMO, India might be asked to make a concession like:

Once CTBT has been ratified by the NWSs, India would provide full-cooperation to ensure that the CTBT comes into effect.

That would take care of the nuclear testing issue, and would be acceptable to India as well.

[RajeshA]

Germany has interest in getting waiver for India at NSG: Economic Times

Germany, which had earlier been critical of the proposal, is now in favour of lifting the nuclear trade restrictions on India. Industry newsletter, Platts Nuclear News Flash, has suggested that this change of heart had been influenced by the joint venture between Siemens, a private German company, and French nuclear conglomerate Areva.

Prominent NPT lobbyist, Arms Control Association, has described the Platt report as “deeply troubling”. The think tank’s executive director Daryl G Kimbal said “the report is deeply troubling as it suggests that Germany’s role as the chair of the NSG is compromised given that it clearly has a conflict of interest that has affected its non-proliferation policy at NSG. It is also clear that France is in a position to exert undue political influence over Germany’s behaviour.”

Nawwwwn. This is not fair.

[p_saggu]

I sure would like to hear what menon said in that NSG breifing. The Germans said afterwards that the atmosphere was 'very very positive'.

[sraj]

Naysayers set to delay India decision by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

“For example, if the other major nuclear countries which have to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in order for it to enter into force do so, then is it right that India should remain outside?” he asked. “So can we think of some way to say India will not stand in the way of the treaty entering into force?”

IMO, India might be asked to make a concession like:

Once CTBT has been ratified by the NWSs, India would provide full-cooperation to ensure that the CTBT comes into effect.

That would take care of the nuclear testing issue, and would be acceptable to India as well.

CTBT cannot enter into force if India does not sign and ratify. MMS recently stated categorically that India will not sign CTBT.

CTBT Text

ARTICLE XIV
ENTRY INTO FORCE

1. This Treaty shall enter into force 180 days after the date of deposit of the instruments of ratification by all States listed in Annex 2 to this Treaty, but in no case earlier than two years after its opening for signature.

ANNEX 2 TO THE TREATY

LIST OF STATES PURSUANT TO ARTICLE XIV

List of States members of the Conference on Disarmament as at 18 June 1996 which formally participated in the work of the 1996 session of the Conference and which appear in Table 1 of the International Atomic Energy Agency's April 1996 edition of "Nuclear Power Reactors in the World", and of States members of the Conference on Disarmament as at 18 June 1996 which formally participated in the work of the 1996 session of the Conference and which appear in Table 1 of the International Atomic Energy Agency's December 1995 edition of "Nuclear Research Reactors in the World": Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Romania, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Viet Nam, Zaire.

This provision was put in without India's consent. The whole thing was master-minded by Australia.

The only way India can sign CTBT is if it follows the path taken by France and China in the few years before they signed up.

[RajeshA]

I sure would like to hear what menon said in that NSG breifing. The Germans said afterwards that the atmosphere was 'very very positive'.

Lifetime subscription of freeeee Indian Food with freeee Home Delivery to all who say Aye.

[mayurav]

And we will not allow reprocessing of the waste nor take it back. All folks consuming the food will be put under safeguards. If any of the countries burp/fart no more Indian food.

[RajeshA]

CTBT cannot enter into force if India does not sign and ratify. MMS recently stated categorically that India will not sign CTBT.

The only way India can sign CTBT is if it follows the path taken by France and China in the few years before they signed up.

Sraj,

One reason why India has been able to withstand the pressure to sign onto CTBT has been the excuse that USA and China have not ratified the Treaty. It is with this excuse, that MMS can categorically say no. Once they do so, there will be intense pressure on India.

Either by then India should have already conducted its nuclear tests, or India should be strong enough by then to still say NO, and not be cowed down by others like the US Senate. However India is a moralistic country, so it would be difficult for India to reject the Treaty then.

Alternatively, India can promise, that India would try to build a consensus withing the country in favor of CTBT, once the NWSs have ratified the Treaty.

The language is much weaker.

[RajeshA]

And we will not allow reprocessing of the waste nor take it back. All folks consuming the food will be put under safeguards. If any of the countries burp/fart no more Indian food.

[putnanja]

N-waiver critics bind US in knot

K.P. NAYAR

Washington, Aug. 21: America — not India — was on the mat at the end of the first day of deliberations of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to exempt India from its strict guidelines for trade in nuclear material and technology that could be used for civilian and military purposes.

A handful of countries, which have reservations about a blanket exemption for India from the NSG rules, told the Americans in Vienna today that the dissenting nations were asking for nothing more than incorporating the requirements in the Hyde Act, passed by the US Congress, into the document allowing New Delhi to engage in nuclear commerce.

The Hyde Act has a number of prescriptive provisions, which India has rejected. These include prohibition of another nuclear test, if undertaken, will lead to the termination of the nuclear deal.

Critics of the US draft before the current NSG meeting also pointed out to the Americans that they had on their statute book other domestic legislation that triggered automatic sanctions against any country that tested a nuclear bomb except the five recognised nuclear-weapons states under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), diplomats in Vienna privy to NSG talks at Japan’s permanent mission to international organisations in Vienna said.

None of these prescriptions was reflected in the US draft asking the NSG to give India a “clean exemption” from the group’s guidelines, they complained.

Although no country put it in so many words at the very civil NSG deliberations and in private discussions on its sidelines, such criticism of the Bush administration amounted to telling Washington that it had double standards on nuclear non-proliferation: one yardstick on the nuclear deal with India for America’s domestic constituencies and another for the international community on the same issue.

One Indian official said, half in mirth, that if India was not a beneficiary of the nuclear deal with the US, Delhi could have wholeheartedly agreed with the critics on the issue of America’s double standards.

“How can we forget that they asked us not very long ago to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) even though their own Congress rejected the CTBT,” said the official, who is under a gag order on talking to the media. “And they wanted us to declare a unilateral moratorium on fissile material production while continued to stock up.”

No NSG member voiced criticism of India over its record in non-proliferation though there were pious hopes that Delhi would join the NPT and the CTBT and do more towards a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).

Foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon’s comprehensive briefing for NSG members that anticipated questions from dissenting countries left no room for any criticism of Delhi’s record in non-proliferation.

[p_saggu]

Rajesh A, mayurav

[RajeshA]

N-waiver critics bind US in knot

K.P. NAYAR

A handful of countries, which have reservations about a blanket exemption for India from the NSG rules, told the Americans in Vienna today that the dissenting nations were asking for nothing more than incorporating the requirements in the Hyde Act, passed by the US Congress, into the document allowing New Delhi to engage in nuclear commerce.

That is a potent argument, however India has always countered, that while India understands and accepts that different countries differ on domestic legislation regarding nuclear testing, India is strictly against those provisions in a multilateral waiver.

Secondly that happened before the Opposition in India clobbered MMS on a sell-out of national interests on the question of nuclear testing.

[p_saggu]

Although no country put it in so many words at the very civil NSG deliberations and in private discussions on its sidelines, such criticism of the Bush administration amounted to telling Washington that it had double standards on nuclear non-proliferation: one yardstick on the nuclear deal with India for America’s domestic constituencies and another for the international community on the same issue.

And they can say this in the same breath as "5 nations get to keep and test nukes while the rest can't" No double standards there.

[sraj]

CTBT cannot enter into force if India does not sign and ratify. MMS recently stated categorically that India will not sign CTBT.

The only way India can sign CTBT is if it follows the path taken by France and China in the few years before they signed up.

Sraj,

One reason why India has been able to withstand the pressure to sign onto CTBT has been the excuse that USA and China have not ratified the Treaty. It is with this excuse, that MMS can categorically say no. Once they do so, there will be intense pressure on India.

Either by then India should have already conducted its nuclear tests, or India should be strong enough by then to still say NO, and not be cowed down by others like the US Senate. However India is a moralistic country, so it would be difficult for India to reject the Treaty then.

Alternatively, India can promise, that India would try to build a consensus withing the country in favor of CTBT, once the NWSs have ratified the Treaty.

The language is much weaker.

If signing the CTBT -- at any point in time -- compromises India's security, then its leaders at that time will be fully within their rights to say NO. Morality does not come into the picture. CTBT is an arms-control tool which seeks to freeze the status quo in a way that puts India's security at risk.

As for being able to withstand pressure, you might remember that in 1996, India was alone in voting (together with Bhutan) against the the resolution calling for adoption of CTBT passed by the UN General Assembly session specifically called by Australia for this purpose.

[RajeshA]

If signing the CTBT -- at any point in time -- compromises India's security, then its leaders at that time will be fully within their rights to say NO. Morality does not come into the picture. CTBT is an arms-control tool which seeks to freeze the status quo in a way that puts India's security at risk.

As for being able to withstand pressure, you might remember that in 1996, India was alone in voting (together with Bhutan) against the the resolution calling for adoption of CTBT passed by the UN General Assembly session specifically called by Australia for this purpose.

Hey, I understand you sraj and also agree with you.

I am just saying, that I expect that there would be some such language in Part 2 (Commitments and Actions) of the final Waiver.

In the end, if we just say, that such a Treaty would need to be ratified by our Parliament, and it never gets ratified there, because of lack of majority, then we wouldn't be ratifying and still be fulfilling the promise of making an effort at consensus building.

[sraj]

From KP Nayar's piece in Telegraph posted above:

Although no country put it in so many words at the very civil NSG deliberations and in private discussions on its sidelines, such criticism of the Bush administration amounted to telling Washington that it had double standards on nuclear non-proliferation: one yardstick on the nuclear deal with India for America’s domestic constituencies and another for the international community on the same issue.

I find it curious that KP Nayar would try to peddle this theory of "double standards" in this way, almost providing a justification for the likes of New Zealand to ask that the Hyde Act be enshrined in the NSG waiver!!

The fact of the matter is that the NSG waiver has to scrupulously follow the Bush-MMS understandings enshrined in J18.

The prescriptions in Hyde are a unilateral restatement of the J18 Bush-MMS understandings by the US Congress, and do not have India's consent or agreement by any stretch of the imagination. GoI has consistently stated that they are not bound by Hyde.

Either Bush can deliver his side of the J18 understandings, or he cannot. We will find out soon enough.

[Pulikeshi]

While personalities (Bush, MMS, etc.) are important from a relationship perspective -
These agreements are made between nations.

[sraj]

While personalities (Bush, MMS, etc.) are important from a relationship perspective -
These agreements are made between nations.

Agree. Just replace Bush with US and MMS with India.

Bottomline: Either the US can deliver its side of the J18 understandings, or it cannot. We will find out soon enough.

Meanwhile:
NZ holding up India-US nuke pact

On Tuesday Prime Minister Helen Clark said that New Zealand, as a nuclear free state, was concerned about the deal.

She said New Zealand was working with "like minded" countries.

New Zealand would attend the NSG and listen carefully to the other countries.

"It would be no secret that we would like to see more conditionalities around the agreement," she said.

The meeting was unable to reach a decision and will hold another one next week.

New Zealand's anti-nuclear principles could cause problems with a country Wellington has been strongly courting over the last five years.

[pradeepe]

The Austrian Greens at Work



Poster says: "Show Courage. Austria must reject the USA-India Nuclear Deal"

The poster seems to be saying, "we are oiseaoules and wish to remain oiseaoules. Nur Mat!"

[Naveen]

The poster seems to be saying "We are Ostriches with our heads buried in the sand. Please let us be"!

[RajeshA]

Green MPs urge German gov`t to halt contentious US-India atomic deal

No problems here. The Greens in Germany are not in power. Foreign Minister Mr Steinemeier of Germany, NSG Chairman would also be more interested in the business case rather than the pseudo-morality of the Greens. In Germany itself there is a rethink about the planned exit from Nuclear Energy, and the Chancellor Angela Merkel may use the Indo-US Nuclear Deal to force that rethink, so she will certainly not listen to the Greens.

[NRao]

Would like to see that day when these yahoos stand up to a country like Russia and forgo the Russian gas supplies. When it comes to their national interests they bend backward, but find faults with others when there are none.

[vsudhir]

I guess the diplomatic msg going out to the moral minnows is that 'if you sink this deal, we'll be compelled to resume testing and will send you a courtsey card'. Why maintain good behavior if there's nothing to show for it? I mean, apart from the 'virtue is its own reward' kinda argument?

/Just wondering onlee.
Its reeeeally unlikely Delhi has either appetite or the requisite brazeness to resume testing unilaterally at this juncture.

[Rupesh]

India says no to new provisions in NSG draft
22 Aug 2008, 1834 hrs IST,IANS

VIENNA: A proposed provision in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group draft seeking to halt all nuclear commerce between the Group and India if it conducted further tests seemed to have become the sticking point as the 45-member NSG went into the second round of its meeting here Friday.

Most members are in favour of lifting the current ban that prevents nuclear commerce between the NSG and a non-signatory of the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), like India. But some NSG members insist that it should not be lifted unless New Delhi formally says no to further nuclear tests.

India has made it clear it will not accept any "new" provisions in the draft that the United States had prepared for the NSG before its two-day meeting began here Thursday.

"There is no question of India accepting any conditions or any new provision in the draft," sources said.

India has announced a voluntary moratorium on further tests, but it has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that prevents countries from conducting further tests.

Some NSG members like Austria, Ireland and Switzerland have serious reservations of giving India a "clean waiver" without a formal assurance from it that there will be no further tests.

Sources said these members have suggested that the provision to stop all commerce with India on civil nuclear energy be brought in if New Delhi conducts any tests in future.

Asked whether India will walkout from the talks if it does not get a "clean waiver," sources said, "We are not even a member of the NSG. If at all, it is the Americans who should stage a walkout."

But the US has been engaged in hectic lobbying with the Indian delegation that include foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon and the prime minister's 'special envoy' Shyam Saran to agree to "the subtle" changes in the draft.

A lot may depend on the final wording and whether the Indian delegation is comfortable with it. But if it feels the new language to be "objectionable", it may reject it altogether.

Attempts are also on by members of the US delegation to convince the NSG members, particularly those who are keen on the provision in the draft, to drop the idea. If that happens the possibility of a clean waiver from the NSG, with the support of the 45-member countries may be reached by the end of the second-day's meeting.

But if the differences between the two sides continue then the Americans may try to get an assurance from the NSG for a future meeting - probably in September to resolve the issue, sources said.

Till Thursday, when the NSG members began their two-day meeting here both India and the US seemed hopeful with John Rood, US under secretary, arms control and international security, saying he was "optimistic that we will be successful in this process."

From the Indian point of view, the mood remained upbeat, as foreign secretary Menon's briefing to the NSG members seemed to have had a "positive and satisfying" effect on them.

Answering queries from the members, the foreign secretary had tried to convince them why the lifting of the existing ban will not only benefit India but also the 45-members of the NSG and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime.

The mood, however, seemed to have changed after some of the NSG members started insisting that the provision to halt commerce with India if it conducts further tests be introduced in the draft.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 394115.cms

[Rupesh]

Speed up the FBR programme, that should do for now and in future we need to develop Fusion reactor. NSG can go to hell along with swiss, NZ and austria

[Pulikeshi]

/Just wondering onlee.
Its reeeeally unlikely Delhi has either appetite or the requisite brazeness to resume testing unilaterally at this juncture.

The governments in both the US as well as India will change. It is anyones guess what will happen.

However, there is a trend.... If thats the case -
No one can take India's new political to dispensation for granted regarding -
what is and what is outside the requirements (such as testing) to maintain India's security.

For all we know the BJP will come to power -
demand a renegotiation and decide that we need to test them bada-bums!

Ayatollalands of NZ, Austria, etc. put paid the US efforts to bring balance and keep the NSG alive!

The Devataa need to realize that their "heaven" is under threat by Vishwamitra's actions!
Trishanku may indeed enter heaven with his mortal body!

[RajeshA]

Nuclear exporters continue to mull India trade ban by Veronika Oleksyn: Associated Press

One clause being pushed by a number of countries appears to be one that would revoke NSG privileges if India resumed nuclear weapons testing.

One delegate said that no decision was expected today. Observers have predicted it could take multiple meetings before a decision is taken.

There are 5 possibilities:

1. Either it is what it looks like. NZ, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands trying to push for the no-nuclear testing clause, and USA trying to find acceptable language to assuage these countries. At the end there is a common denominator.

2. USA has given these countries the go-ahead to make such demands, so that USA can multilateralize the Hyde Act based on some assurance the State Department has given to Howard Berman.

3. USA and India are playing out a script, where the negotiations extend on to Sept 2 so that these hold-outs can show for some resistance at NSG for their home audience, while at the end these countries also sign up on a language acceptable to India.

4. These countries are really out to clip Indian wings and they want to sabotage everything and have the clock run out. In the end there is no agreement. USA gives up.

5. USA forces NSG to break up on this question. All the hold-outs are thrown into the deep sea. They become Non-Proliferation Renegades and stand outside the NSG Meetings holding up posters prepared by the Green Party. The Deal goes through.

[RajeshA]

Me thinks Norway is making this an issue perhaps because they feel beholden to the 60,000 Pakistanis in Norway and also because Pakistan, along with Bangladesh and Malaysia play host to Telenor Telecommunications, one Norwegian company which is trying to get a foothold in Asia. In India, the company may not have much of a chance, so it is doing Pakistani bidding.

Netherlands is about as screwed up as Praful Bidwai.

Austria too is running here and there, all of a sudden acting as if Austria was important in the world.

Switzerland, I can't decipher. Maybe it is just for symbolic showing off.

Ireland, I do believe they are truly concerned about their baby, the NPT.

NZ, well we know that .....

[RajeshA]

NSG meet inconclusive, next in September: Report NDTV

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meet in Vienna has ended and sources have told NDTV that it was inconclusive. The next NSG meet is likely to be on September 4 and 5.

The NSG debated issues like testing and periodic review.

Some countries like Switzerland and Ireland had problems with waiver to be given to India.

However, diplomatic sources told NDTV that the US has said it will bring back a new draft.

Key NSG meet on India waiver inconclusive: howrah.org

[Manny]

Nuclear exporters continue to mull India trade ban by Veronika Oleksyn: Associated Press

One clause being pushed by a number of countries appears to be one that would revoke NSG privileges if India resumed nuclear weapons testing.

One delegate said that no decision was expected today. Observers have predicted it could take multiple meetings before a decision is taken.

There are 5 possibilities:

1. Either it is what it looks like. NZ, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands trying to push for the no-nuclear testing clause, and USA trying to find acceptable language to assuage these countries. At the end there is a common denominator.

2. USA has given these countries the go-ahead to make such demands, so that USA can multilateralize the Hyde Act based on some assurance the State Department has given to Howard Berman.

3. USA and India are playing out a script, where the negotiations extend on to Sept 2 so that these hold-outs can show for some resistance at NSG for their home audience, while at the end these countries also sign up on a language acceptable to India.

4. These countries are really out to clip Indian wings and they want to sabotage everything and have the clock run out. In the end there is no agreement. USA gives up.

5. USA forces NSG to break up on this question. All the hold-outs are thrown into the deep sea. They become Non-Proliferation Renegades and stand outside the NSG Meetings holding up posters prepared by the Green Party. The Deal goes through.

If predication are appropriate here.

I predict #4

4. These countries are really out to clip Indian wings and they want to sabotage everything and have the clock run out. In the end there is no agreement. USA gives up.

I am fine with it. I was always for this deal until now.

India should work towards minituarization or other advancement with Nukes. (I am not all that familiar with this subject). Take advantage of this half cup.

[SureshP]

NSG meet inconclusive, next in September: Report
NDTV Correspondent
Friday, August 22, 2008, (Vienna)

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meet in Vienna has ended and sources have told NDTV that it was inconclusive. The next NSG meet is likely to be on September 4 and 5.

The NSG debated issues like testing and periodic review.

Some countries like Switzerland and Ireland had problems with waiver to be given to India.

However, diplomatic sources told NDTV that the US has said it will bring back a new draft.

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 34:00%20PM

New Delhi: Looks like India's dream of joining the nuclear family will have to wait. On Friday, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group met in Vienna and debated on allowing India the right to do nuclear business with the world. But the collective might of five powerful nations led by the United States was not enough to swing it.

The NSG meeting ended inconclusively after internal differences failed to generate a consensus for an exception for India.

Most member nations were supportive of India's case but some countries like Austria, New Zealand, Ireland and Norway – strong proponents of the non proliferation regime – have insisted on pinning India to commit itself in letter and spirit to the non proliferation regime, which includes a commitment to not test nuclear weapons again.

It is now extremely likely that the US will return with a new draft that will be discussed on September 4 or 5.

The first round of discussions ended on Thursday with no country opposing an exemption from India from NSG rules but at least three members demanded a tightening of language on the US draft.

American and Indian officials sat together late into Thursday night to see whether there was scope to reach common ground on the objections raised.

Before the NSG met for round two of its deliberations today, senior American diplomat Richard Boucher warned India might have to accept some changes in the language of the draft.

Boucher did not rule out changes in the waiver draft that was discussed at the NSG

Boucher said India would have to live with some changes to the proposed waiver. It is not clear yet what those changes might be but India has left itself no wiggle room politically after publicly insisting on a clean and unconditional waiver.

Specifically, Indian diplomats say there is no question of accepting conditions, be they binding or prescriptive, on issues related to testing, nature of safeguards, periodic monitoring of India's nuclear status, and ban on sale of enrichment and reprocessing technologies.

http://www.ibnlive.com/news/indias-ndre ... 876-2.html

[Neela]

Or is this a ploy between US and the four rats to see if India blinks?
Worth a shot from the Western viewpoint?

[ramana]

Thanks Manny. Coming from you its very important.
ramana

[RajeshA]

A List of Indian red lines:

SELF-EVIDENT:
1) No signing of NPT ever

2) No Full-Scope Safeguards ever

3) No change in Separation Plan

4) No signing of FMCT right away.

5) No signing of CTBT right away.

ADDITIONAL RED LINES:
6) No Multilateral Condition Clause where the waiver is suspended or terminated on India conducting a nuclear test. This could be included in domestic laws and negotiated bilaterally.

7) No Prescription on signing of CTBT.

8 ) No Right of Return of Nuclear Fuel upon Termination of the Waiver.

9) No Multilateral Prohibition of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology.

10) No Periodic Reviews of Adherence.

11) No Additional Safeguards other than those prescribed in India-IAEA Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol.

[RajeshA]

NSG draft waiver text could be amended: US PTI

"I don't want to lie to you...I can't really lie. There might be some changes that we could accept. But we are pushing for a clean text," Boucher told reporters here as the NSG held deliberations in Vienna on whether India should be given the exemption to conduct civil nuclear trade.

He is willing to make an exception and not lie this time. Probably his tongue hurts from lying all the time in Pakistan, his second home.