Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

For many people today, this morning was bad. They have been driven from their homes, their possessions are basically the clothes on them, if that. They may be enslaved and tortured, their loved ones dead, maimed or abducted for torture and slavery. So my apologies in advance for posing some items on this form that are nowhere near as catastrophic as what these people have encountered.
If you look around on Jan. 15, 2020, the US stock market is at a record, or hovering so close: it is expected to keep rising.
China is ruled by Uncle Xi, and rising from strength to strength. The cash keeps pouring in the trillions into China, faster than they can spend it establishing a growing ownership claim and more wealth streams around the world.
Europe, well... enjoys European standards of living and some agitating at maybe the 3 month annual paid vacation and travel bonus being reduced a bit.
Russia is growing in strength. Pres. Putin has just brought out a new Constitution.
India has a stable and powerful govt, the economy is transforming into something that is expected to rise to be #3 in the world soon.... And so on.
***********************************
Black Swan Scarario #1:
There are now aircraft carriers of US, Russia, Oirope, China, and India in the Middle East. Within range of lots of missiles. Suppose one were to sink with all hands? Ha! You say, these floating islands are tougher than most real islands. Unsinkable, almost as tough as HMS Titanic. Or the Battleship Prince of Wales outside Singapore.
The nation involved, plunged into grief and rage, would feel compelled to avenge with everything in their arsenal.
And suppose the POTUS was impeached in the Senate? Considered impossible, but what if there some new revelations, and opinion polls, that compelled 20 Senators to change sides?

Black Swan Scarario #2: Ruler of 1 of the 3 superpowers is attacked. Can't say more or BRF and postor will be in trouble.

Black Swan Scarario #3: A small Near Earth Object - or far worse, an interstellar-traveling piece of iron - hit a major metropolis AND a nuclear weapon facility. I dont know which is worse: an ocean strike that generates a massive tsunami, or a land strike.

Black Swan Scarario #4: A meteor strike triggers a Super Volcano.

Black Swan Scarario #5: An asteroid strikes. Miraculously, it only struck smak center of Antarctica in mid-winter. Unfortunately it triggered a super volcano there, and basically blows the ice cap to pieces, vaporizing much of it. The water spreads as many tsunamis, and massive, massive clouds rolling at 200 mph and dumping a deluge over the populated continents.

BS #6: Pakis/ISIS manage to explode a tactical nuke in a major city in Europe, Australia, US, Canada, China, Japan, Korea or India.

OK, no sense in typing more until I see if this survives longer than a meteor in Antarctica.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 16 Jan 2020 00:35, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

Good idea to start such a thread. Before that let me go back to what Rumsfeld said and he was panned for it as people did not know what he was talking about.
He said "There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns!"

Known unknowns are risks to the system.
They are identified, categorized and managed.

To mitigate risks you need to follow process and procedures to mitigate the risks.

Eg. Step 2 after Step 1 etc.
Basically a rigid response system.

Unknown unknowns are uncertainties to the system.

Since its unknown there are no process nor procedures that can guide you.

However you know the consequence to the system and hence can plan by being agile, flexible non-hierarchical, distributed response system.
E.g. like the little Dutch boy who put his finger and stopped the leak from breaking the dam.

So basically the controllers/leaders have to know is it a risk or an uncertainty and respond accordingly.
And the system has to be rigid and flexible as needed to respond.

This is a very crucial concept for non-electrical engineers/geneticists who have not dealt with stochastic processes.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

May your goats be on the high slopes and enjoy the view of the tsunamis below.
Hope to hear from the experts.
My hope is that a distributed-governance, local self-sufficient strategy offers much to alleviate and survive. The trouble that bothers me is that we are all driven by "momdernization" towards centralized, automated, computerized systems. Even trying to imagine the effect of one of these events is becoming too traumatic whereas 70 years ago it may not have been: the world had just come through a global conflict.

For instance, investors rush to gold (and now rhodium, 5x the price of gold!) for "security" But there is no security if the "security"-holding companies get wiped out, and the market is dysfunctional (as it became in the 1930s in America and Germany, and many times since then in other nations - for instance even Venezuela today. Or Syria.

Having one's "resources" as gold, which is relatively portable, just makes one a target.
Owning land? Maybe puts a death sentence on the owner. Plus, land is no good unless there is water and means of growing crops.
And so one, the nightmares never cease.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

So basically uncertainties from nature are out of scope. Or else we end up with thread lcok as folks go hyper.

We can deal with political, economic, social uncertainties. Basically things that can change the way you live.
Going back in history I will give some instances:
0) Buddha and his concept of Dhamma
1) Arab invasion of Sind in 711 AD
2) Second Battle of Terrain
3) Allaudin Khilji raid on Deogiri in 1297
4) Battle of Plassey in 1757
5) World War I in 1914 that ended Empires

To gain intellectual expertise in thinking thru the responses, please reflect and post a few lines on each on these events.
Because if we don't know who to argue its another wasted thread....
1) What was the event?
2) Why is it an uncertainty?
3) What was the response politically, economically, intellectually, militarily?
4)What was the response time? Decades, centuries, millennium, ongoing!

I want to know how to think through the challenges and not go into a tu-tu/main-main ban crusade.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

UB for fun watch The Laundromat on Netflix about tax havens and other frauds.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

I will leave the ancient history parts to those who have better than my Macaulayite 8th-standard textbook knowledge.
To me the pressing question (now that the Natural Disasters are haraam to worry about, thanks for that) is how to prevent one's country/nbd from going the way of the following that I have seen happening in my lifetime or shortly preceding:
1. Partition of India.
2. Collapse of Yugoslavia
3. Collapse of Lebanon (the "Switzerland of the Mediterrenean")
4. Collapse of Sri Lanka
5. Genocide in Rwanda
6. Collapse of Iraq (1990 and then 2003 onwards..)
7. Collapse of Syria
8. Trauma of Egypt (though they have avoided collapse yet)
9. Collapse of Venezuela
10. Collapse of Greece
11. Virtual collapse of Turkey
12. Collapse of the Asian Tiger Economies in the early 1990s.
13. Degeneration of Mexico into virtual collapse.

I am sure if one asks Israelis they will tell me that the above is exactly what occupies their thinkers when they are not planning to (never mind). And they have done a fantastic job in a neighborbood as impossible as that of India.
For perspective, many todin consider the US to be dominated by pro-Israel types who control this and control that. Consider that as recently as WW2, public opinion in the US was very sharply divided between the England-supporters who saw Germany as a competitor to Anglo domination of the world, and those who saw Hitler and his gang as long-awaited Saviors of Xtianity. The Church (Roman, Protestant, Anglican, Polish, Russian Orthodox, u name it) were 100% anti-Jewish.
Jewish people were not permitted as members in the Country Clubs of the USA (at least in the Bible Baptist South).

The Anglo-British plot to carve out a Jewish Homeland was sold as a good move to keep the Jews from coming solely to Xtian Oirope and US. IOW, more or less like the Kurdish enclave now being set up courtesy of Putin and Erdogan in Syria.
***There has not been a single Jewish POTUS since 1776.*** But plenty who could not have won nor ruled without Jewish support. Same this election: Bloomberg is the only POTUS candidate!!

So how did the pro-Israel lobby get to today's level of dominance? Through sheer vigilance, hard-nosed rules of Eye+Nose+legs for an Eye, etc etc.
NOTHING was given to them out of Xtian Love.

Likewise, the US was **NOT** the major world power until at least WW1, and probably not until end of WW2. Sea power was so-so compared to Germany, Japan and most of all Imperial England. Air power was not really a player then. The US has kept the integrity of the homeland at HUUUUGE cost. Remember that the American Civil War killed over a million - maybe a LOT more, then didn't keep very accurate count then. Why didn't the US just sign a ceasefire and biss agreement and create a Partitioned situation? Why fight the massive battles and the huge sweep south to finish the job? Did this turn out to be a good idea in the long term? What if there had been an India-Pakistan situation in the present USA?

How has the US avoided having to man the 3000-mile border with Canadastan with tank divisions and Strike Corps? All they have are SUVs for Customs and Border Enforcement.
How do Russian and China keep the biss along their border? Post Ussuri River which was expected to bloom into mushroom clouds with 12,000 tactical nukes on either side?
Why can India-China not achieve something similar?

Are there other things to do, to keep the wolves from the door? If so what?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

If we want serious discussion it needs to be structured.
Can't have rambling new stuff tossed!!!

Use the four question template to start the discussion.
My reason for putting the ancient was those were all uncertainties and Bharat did cope with them.
And past is a mirror to future.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by g.sarkar »

Ulan Batoriji,
May your Yaks outnumber the stars on a new moon night.
You are right. The US government may support the Jews but they are not popular with the mango people. The American support is transactional. Surely, the US support is not older than 1945. Before this even the government was not in support. Remember Groucho Max saying "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member"? US country clubs did not then admit Jews. The American civil rights movement was started by African-Americans and the Jews back in the 60's. With the spread of Islam the Jewish-African American relations have deteriorated in recent years.
Gautam
Last edited by g.sarkar on 17 Jan 2020 01:55, edited 1 time in total.
Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10390
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Yagnasri »

One of the best examples of decentralized system should the local admin systems in ancient Bharat. Water resources, local justice, law and order and so on were taken care at village level most of the time. As a results many things like famines were mostly avoided by development of sustainable local systems suitable to the respective locality and economic activities were planned based on needs of the locality and so on. Greater freedom to the economic enterprise and least and logical regulation must have been natural as the closeness of the administration to the economic activity. This I think resulted in the massive amount of the wealth creation for centuries. I am not sure whether we have done sufficient study on this and learn from it for today's situations.
tandav
BRFite
Posts: 722
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by tandav »

I have often wondered why India did not fight the civil war in 1947 to preserve united India rather than now face a nuclear armed neighbor... would have been far better. United India would have kept the entire Middle East safe.
Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Vikas »

If you can predict it before hand, Then it may not be a black swan event Al-Yak-Herdi.
To protect the country, There should also be external stakeholders interested in the preserving the country.
Who outside the borders of Bharat wants to see India united and existing as a single unit ?
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Karthik S »

Vikas wrote:If you can predict it before hand, Then it may not be a black swan event Al-Yak-Herdi.
To protect the country, There should also be external stakeholders interested in the preserving the country.
Who outside the borders of Bharat wants to see India united and existing as a single unit ?
Not necessarily, but we need to worry about those internal groups that are not interested in preserving the country. Ofcourse, talking about any action to tackle them is haram. MCU is the last thing that I take seriously, but this line stuck with me:

An empire toppled by its enemies can rise again. But one which crumbles from within? That's dead.
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2069
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by SRajesh »

UlanBatori wrote:I will leave the ancient history parts to those who have better than my Macaulayite 8th-standard textbook knowledge.
To me the pressing question (now that the Natural Disasters are haraam to worry about, thanks for that) is how to prevent one's country/nbd from going the way of the following that I have seen happening in my lifetime or shortly preceding:
1. Partition of India.
2. Collapse of Yugoslavia
3. Collapse of Lebanon (the "Switzerland of the Mediterrenean")
4. Collapse of Sri Lanka
5. Genocide in Rwanda
6. Collapse of Iraq (1990 and then 2003 onwards..)
7. Collapse of Syria
8. Trauma of Egypt (though they have avoided collapse yet)
9. Collapse of Venezuela
10. Collapse of Greece
11. Virtual collapse of Turkey
12. Collapse of the Asian Tiger Economies in the early 1990s.
13. Degeneration of Mexico into virtual collapse.

I am sure if one asks Israelis they will tell me that the above is exactly what occupies their thinkers when they are not planning to (never mind). And they have done a fantastic job in a neighborbood as impossible as that of India.
For perspective, many todin consider the US to be dominated by pro-Israel types who control this and control that. Consider that as recently as WW2, public opinion in the US was very sharply divided between the England-supporters who saw Germany as a competitor to Anglo domination of the world, and those who saw Hitler and his gang as long-awaited Saviors of Xtianity. The Church (Roman, Protestant, Anglican, Polish, Russian Orthodox, u name it) were 100% anti-Jewish.
Jewish people were not permitted as members in the Country Clubs of the USA (at least in the Bible Baptist South).

The Anglo-British plot to carve out a Jewish Homeland was sold as a good move to keep the Jews from coming solely to Xtian Oirope and US. IOW, more or less like the Kurdish enclave now being set up courtesy of Putin and Erdogan in Syria.
***There has not been a single Jewish POTUS since 1776.*** But plenty who could not have won nor ruled without Jewish support. Same this election: Bloomberg is the only POTUS candidate!!

So how did the pro-Israel lobby get to today's level of dominance? Through sheer vigilance, hard-nosed rules of Eye+Nose+legs for an Eye, etc etc.
NOTHING was given to them out of Xtian Love.


Likewise, the US was **NOT** the major world power until at least WW1, and probably not until end of WW2. Sea power was so-so compared to Germany, Japan and most of all Imperial England. Air power was not really a player then. The US has kept the integrity of the homeland at HUUUUGE cost. Remember that the American Civil War killed over a million - maybe a LOT more, then didn't keep very accurate count then. Why didn't the US just sign a ceasefire and biss agreement and create a Partitioned situation? Why fight the massive battles and the huge sweep south to finish the job? Did this turn out to be a good idea in the long term? What if there had been an India-Pakistan situation in the present USA?

How has the US avoided having to man the 3000-mile border with Canadastan with tank divisions and Strike Corps? All they have are SUVs for Customs and Border Enforcement.
How do Russian and China keep the biss along their border? Post Ussuri River which was expected to bloom into mushroom clouds with 12,000 tactical nukes on either side?
Why can India-China not achieve something similar?

Are there other things to do, to keep the wolves from the door? If so what?
UBji
Couple of things in Jewish History:
1.persecuted/enslaved even before the arrival of messiah
2.good with handicrafts/numbers
3.Newer Abrahamic faith and the initial rules of Usury : god given chance for the Jews to enter the Financial/Banking sectors(remember they used to lend money to every monarch in eyerope who wanted to pick a fight)
4.Even before the 'rise of Khan' they were already in position of power in financial/the nascent 'Audio-visual' i.e, cinema industry
5.In position to rub shoulders with powers to be(even though not in the ambiance of the 'Country Club')
6.A core group of Xtrian(in decision making circles) believing in the 'Second Coming of Messiah' only if the jews returned to their homeland paved way for the creation of Homeland
7. Plus late realization and sense of repentance by the eyeropeans for the all the previous 'pogroms' against the jews
This has helped them to milk the 'WASP-RC' gora group to the last drop
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

^ True, true. But note that the reason why Medieval / pre-Medieval Jewish people could lend money is that they had ppl who saved money. So it goes back to a culture of preparing for the future, and being more or less ready to move/be moved from their homes at short notice. By now they have bought the Country Clubs in the US, I assume. :)
I have tried to imagine being a child and being officially fed stories, not of nice blonde frogs who turn into Princes and marry snooty blonde Princesses and Living Happily Ever After (hah!). But of the nuking of Sodom & Gomorrah. One grows up to be, well... like me.
Much in common with tribes in desh who also developed ancient skills as thrifty traders with an uncanny knack for accumumating wealth through largely honest/legal means. That is never as "popular" as making money the REALLY old-fashined way: the Congrej way.
Of course, being the Goose that Laid Da Golden Eggs conferred some royal protection except in cases where the Royals got too greedy.
Item 6 makes sense, thx for the education.
Note that in UQstan as well, Jewish bijnejppl have been rich and powerful for many centuries, maybe even b4 the Roman takeover. Maybe funded Norman the Conq. as well.
IOW, their people just thought very hard all day and night how to survive in a world that was not very friendly. AFAIK, except for the Mediterranean coast and the neighboring hills, their "homeland" has never been particularly easy to cultivate or live off, since the last Ice Age.

So now they hope they are there to stay, and do not intend for another Temple of Solomon to fall. "Masada shall not fall again" etc. And they know that the only ways are to ensure self-sufficiency in basics to the extent possible, and an IDF far out of proportion to their tiny population. Plus a Mossad to look far ahead for threats - and act on them without namby-pamby dallying.
The "trouble" for others due to that, is that u combine a stable home base with their ancient talents, and u have a rather deadly combo from the pov of anyone who has to be their neighboring countries. Which in turn exacerbates the security threat.
OTOH if they were to adopt Panchsheel and Ahimsa in that neighborhood, the Temple of Solomon becomes a "sell now" investment. So they are caught in a bind with no evident way out.
The old saying that my Father used to tell me:
There is no point in the lamb adopting vegetarianism, as long as the wolf is of a different persuasion.

No comments on who is lamb or wolf in present context. But one wonders what would happen if the wolf were to adopt vegetarianism or worse, veganism aka WFPBN (Wackos Feeding on Plant Based Nutorture) :eek: . It will no longer be a Lean Wolf, but a fat cowolf. Dogs will eat it.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Expanding on that, I bet Israel has shelters to accommodate (most of?) the population in extreme crises such as NBC attacks, plus substantial local armories at the second line of defense. Citjens are trained to use modern weapons too.
Now that second item requires a mostly homogeneous population with shared loyalties and threat perceptions. Rather difficult in many other parts of the dunia.
The first item is no shelter in cases of "civil" upheavals where neighbors turn on neighbors/ mobs attack. So it requires a functioning Local Civil Defense that is united in the cause of preserving law and order. Which means there must be a respected system of law and order that everyone understands. Which requires education and mass media dissemination. Which requires some level of technology to function during crises. Means one has to be able to charge one's cell phone, but that's no good if the celltowers are not standing.
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Karthik S »

UlanBatori wrote:Expanding on that, I bet Israel has shelters to accommodate (most of?) the population in extreme crises such as NBC attacks, plus substantial local armories at the second line of defense. Citjens are trained to use modern weapons too.
Now that second item requires a mostly homogeneous population with shared loyalties and threat perceptions. Rather difficult in many other parts of the dunia.
The first item is no shelter in cases of "civil" upheavals where neighbors turn on neighbors/ mobs attack. So it requires a functioning Local Civil Defense that is united in the cause of preserving law and order. Which means there must be a respected system of law and order that everyone understands. Which requires education and mass media dissemination. Which requires some level of technology to function during crises. Means one has to be able to charge one's cell phone, but that's no good if the celltowers are not standing.
UB saar, arabs in Israel are 20% of population, how have they assimilated into larger jewish society and are loyal to Israel? Why it hasn't happened in India even though we all share same ethnicity? BTW am talking about partition times, not now.
Last edited by Karthik S on 16 Jan 2020 19:38, edited 1 time in total.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

What about other parts of the world? UQ, having invaded practically the whole world, must have had slight pangs in their tummies when they attended the Fire&Brimstone sermons in their local places of worship? Maybe not of conscience, but reminders that others may have learned lessons from them?
Are WW2 shelters still kept up, and did they not expand/get modified during the Cold War? Is there a well-understood system now of what to do in extreme crises?

In the posh suburbs of Mongolia, one has nooooo idea what happens if one din, the power (which is needed for TV) and cellphone went on the blink. One supposes that one might be able to bring up AM radio on one's yakmobile if that still works, but other than that? NO backup generator, even, since power hardly ever fails for more than a second or two (Khan's newclear plants are very efficient and reliable). Have fireplance (outside burning is banned, with all wooden houses!). But very little firewood stacked since that breeds snakes and termites. One hardly ever carries hardly any cash around. One has no jewelry not that it would do anything except get one's neck chopped. One had a survivalist rainwater tank, but that is now gone. (Khan's water supply hardly ever known to fail). No well.

And no, there is no underground anything for shelter. Standard emergency procedure is PUHBUKAKUAG.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

^ AFAIK, Arabs in Israel are not treated like mynawrities in desh are treated. Enough said. I don't know if they are admitted into Country Clubs there. Hopefully yes, into the shelters, but if the cause of the shelter entrance is a missile attack from friendly Arab neighbors, are they safer in the shelter or outside?
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Ppl, let me put it this way: this thread wonders what one should do in Black Swan events, and how to avert them/ alleviate their effects ... not how one's neighbors should become better out of the goodness of their hearts. That is the essence of Chicken Little: never asked how others should hold the sky up.
Although of course one would have to wonder about strategies for making sure one's neighbors shared one's concerns about preserving peace,law, order, justice and freedom.
Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Vikas »

^^ Let the world secretly know that if we go down for reasons other than act of God (Then hopefully everyone lese will be drowning), Then we will make sure that other too go down and cockroaches will rule the world.
Atleast most of the world powers will be wary of letting Bharat hit by a planned black swan.
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Karthik S »

^^ I think Israel's doctrine is same regarding its neighbors.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

UB, By your own rambling you are contributing to the thread going in downward spiral.
Rein in the thoughts and work on either the ancient or modern scenario and then we can talk.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Right now thoughts are very much in rambling stage except for sheer lungi-shivering fear, which is why I started the thread, in hopes of getting a few opinions. Hope the clarity will come b4 the thread suffers a BS event.
BS by it nature, comes when least expected. So a specific preparation is very tough. For instance you don't pull all ur money from a stock just because stocks are rising - though your tummy says that a BS is flapping its wings somewhere out there.
People have to live their lives. So do u just go "Bhavitavyam Bhavet Eva" and sit on ur hands?
Let's take the least controversial and least disruptive of the BS of my list:

11. Virtual collapse of Turkey - leading to the success of ISIS.
a) Why do I call this a Black Swan event? Because it sent Turkey in a downward spiral. If you were a Turkish business person who was in an honest modern business, you saw the basis for your business crumbling around you. It is going to get a LOT worse, I am sure, and will not end without a "civil" war and "Syriized" unless Turkey manages to get into a real shooting war and is Iraqized/overrun.

Make no mistake: Turkish ppl will end up paying for the ISIS' jollies.

I would say the VISIBLE BS event was the coup. Turkey will never be the same again. Thousands of people had their lives upended as homes were raided, till-then-considered loyaland successful ppl were arrested and put to torture.
But what was the origin? That was the election of Erdogan.
Why was Erdogan elected? Because of the rise of Isloo fundoos who overcame the "secular" state which was nevertheless very Islamic. {OK I sense the Bredator wings fluttering as I anticipate ppl yanking this in other directions.... pls don't.}
Why did Isloo fundoos manage to get enough power to overthrow the till-then modernist govt?
- Probably because the govt became too weak due to infighting between its ambitious members.
OTOH, the Isloo fundoos were a bloc, united. Why? Because all were inspired by same philosophy as ISIS, based on KSA teachings.
So was the real failure, the failure to crack down on the Wahabists in time?
Was that hindered by Hyooman Rights concerns? Or Constitutional concerns?

IOW when the was the crucial mistake made, and what was it and who made it?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

I will try to answer the premise that collapse of Turkey will lead to success of ISIS.

For this we need to understand whats ISIS?
Before ISIS there was Al Qaeda (AlQ).
AlQ was a reaction to US troops in KSA which has the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina.
The limited goal was to remove the 'occupiers'.
This was so thwarted that AlQ took shelter in the no-man lands of Talibani Afghanistan with TSPA/J-e-F support and connivance.

ISIS was formed to create a Sunni Caliphate in Iraq.
This was a reaction to post Saddam Shia take over of Iraq.
ISIS and AlQ were Arab founded but have pan-Islamic sundry terrorists.
ISIS went rampant in Western Iraq and Syria. Later part was aided by benign neglect of US.
ISIS take over of Turkey won't fulfill their founding goal of Caliphate which is an Arab thought.
And as long as KSA is there this wont happen.

There is a saying in Anatolia or modern Turkey.
Romans crucify, Arabs behead, Turks impale!

So Turkey may or may not fall but that wont lead to ISIS rise for the causes are different.
ISIS rise will be due to Arab resurgence in West Asia not in peripheral North Africa or West of Indus.
The other part of the question is whither Turkey?
Well after Ottomans, Turkey tried military dictatorship. And that kept them out of WWII and on path of modernization. They joined NATO as their biggest fear was Russians are coming.
Once Cold War was over their utility to West was over.
This led to a decade of introspection while the carrot of EU membership turned a mirage.
While this was happening the GOAT and OIF were launched producing turmoil in their eastern borders.
This led to ~2M refugees from Syria inside which is not very prosperous nor capable of absorbing them
Turkey has demographic and political forces pulling it apart.
Kurds form 45% of Turkey and soon will be a majority.
Then there are the European origin Turks who are very modern and tend to look to wards Europe.
The political forces are Ottoman redux led by Erdogan and the Gulenists supported by US.
I still don't know why the failed coup was launched. All hands point to a weak hand in WHOTUS.

So what do I think?
Demographics is king.
Turkey or Anatolia will split into Kurd majority and European origin Turks.
The Turkish Kurds could form a nucleus for greater Kurdistan which will have oil.
This has repercussions in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
In other words the final process of ethnic identity that pulled apart ottoman will assert itself.
West Asia is result of Sykes Picot pact to create new map of West Asia.
Many unnatural countries were formed for convenience of two failing European powers GB and France.
And US took the burden of preserving them post WWII.
And lost itself under Dubya.
American century became American decade of 1990s.

Bottom line
Turkey will split.
ISIS rise won't be due to this.
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2069
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by SRajesh »

^^ Ramana Sirji
Agree totally that ISIS is dead with a Caveat : only to be reborn as some other Sunni org.
Also greater Kurdistan is more likely scenario(and Kurds at present hate all other ethnic groups in the region but once in power god knows what they would end up doing)
So me thinks:
Smaller Turk, Greater Kurdistan, A small chunk of Iraq sunni area sandwiched between Damascus centred greater Alwaite/Shia region and greater Iran/Shistan provided the US/Saudi is counter balanced by Chin-Rus and the 'Mantan' of Shia-Sunni is allowed.
This 'Mantan' would be good for 'Rise of Dharma' in the next cycle of 'Game of thrones'(sorry couldn't help myself!!)
If not we should actively/covertly encourage this mantan
Palestine will die one the way and West bank will be another province in Jewish state. Lebanese if they have common sense would join this greater jewish state
In all this I don't know what will happen to the Trans-Jordan(the rightful Hashemite protector of the M & M)
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

OK, we will strike #11 as a BS source. I feel that Turkey in its present form constitutes NATO's biggest internal problem as in "V have met the enemy and it is V". If they don't kick out Turkey, NATO is dead. If they do kick out Turkey, it is right at the cross-roads and will erode Europe anyway. So Russians will build their presence in Turkey, and try their best to break them away from Europe. HOWEVER, what that implies in terms of Russian support/tolerance of Sunni expansionism, remains to be seen. Turkey splitting implies a massive war, even bigger than Syrian war because Turkish armed forces are I think more powerful than Syrians at least in weapons - and Russians, for their own purposes, will actually HELP the Erdogan gang to suppress the Euro-facing gang. So now we have Russia allied with a Sunni expansionist state (Turkey) which is on friendly terms with KSA for Sunni expansionism, and also Russia on good terms with Iran. Doesn't this mean expulsion of the American Umbrella from Turkey, KSA and Iraq and the Gelf? Will US tolerate that, because it also implies switch of the oil trade to roubles or whatever?

Anyway, projection for Turkey seems to be gradual worsening, with the markets and force structures already taking this into their pricing. So as someone pointed out, it is not a BS. Not a good projection, but let's go to the next one.

Mitigation Steps?
These events are largely out of India's control and influence, even as Mediator. Best bet might be to bring Turkey into some new "NAM" (remember that?) to compensate for the Euracist attitudes that rankle Turkey, but I don't see that as having even BandAid effect. Is there scope for expanded trade with Turkey to wean them from Paki-KSA circles? But would they care?

Will the Euro-facing groups in Turkey have to leave as refugees? If they do, obviously they will head to Germany etc: Competition for the Pakis, but again not within Indian influence.

I think Europeans are thinking hard and scrambling to mitigate these things. Pipeline tamasha shows it, refugee issue shows it. But they are increasingly having to break from US efforts - whatever those are. IOW, NATO unity is under serious strain.

*********************************
Corollary: ISIS in Africa
BTW, although BS events have traditionally occurred while 99.99999% of ppl are looking elsewhere, we cannot afford to accept that they are totally unpredictable so don't worry be happy. The effects are terrible, so we might as well game out all the scenarios that we can, while we can.

BTW, ISIS is not dead. They are on pilgrimage to Libya, from where they will cross the deserts (their forte!!) and infest all of North Africa and move south to infect all of Africa. Ripe for the picking. That will develop into a direct clash (I hope) between Sunni global domination and Xtian conversionst/colonialist domination. Africa ain't big enuf for both, as continuing jollies in Sudan demonstrate. But again I don't see a catastrophe in Africa as anything that even comes in the headlines. Which is why it is so dangerous; ISIS can be all over Africa and explode one day continent-wide in the classic Mahdi traditions. Simultaneous "African Spring" in Nigeria, Sudan, Congo, Kenya (already started), Mali (already started), CAR, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Liberia, Tanzania and South Africa. Very bad news for India as well, because there are huge and expanding Indian business interests in Africa.

But... except for rare minerals, the global markets don't depend on Africa. Yet. I don't see US launching B-2/B-52 campaigns over Zimbabwe.
One day we may wake up to an ISIS-dominated Africa, breaking out to invade. But that's a bit far-fetched.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Should we add a Return to Not-so-Cold War with breakup of NATO?
The long-held view was that w/o NATO guarantee forcing US to intervene massively, there was nothing to stop Red Army (Now White/Blue Army) from reaching the English channel in 2 weeks. Has that changed hugely? But does Russia care about such things now, even if they did then (which I doubt very much). Will a post-Putin Russia embark on this, given rising US hostility? Say a Zhirinovsky (?) type gets elected, and tears up the new Constitution.
But such a war, swift and destructive, would indeed be a BS event.
Probably lead to the long-feared nuclear exchange that was held back by Cold War MAD. At least the total destruction of Western (and much of Eastern) Europe. Ukraine is already trashed.
Nothing much to do about it again except PUHBUKAKUAG.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

Ok looks like need to define ISIS again.
Its roots are in West Asia.
Goal is to establish a Caliphate.
ISIS is very different than other Al Shabab or Al Kabab.

Anywhere else its just a ISISlamic thugs.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Let's take #5: Genocide in Rwanda. Hope Lisaji can provide perspective on why it happened. And can the same occur again elsewhere? Say in Sindh? Or in BD ( I mean between Believers..) Or will the festivities in Myanmar involving Rohingyas engulf all of Myanmar?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by ramana »

In BD there was an attempted coup between believers and others.

Got quashed.
Remember?
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

^^ ramana: ISIS to me is just a name. Fundamentally their concept is Islamic State: aka the global Khalifate. Total subjugation of the Unbelievers (not elimination: If the kuffar are eliminated the Believers will have to revert to killing each other to keep themselves in practice).
So all these terms are meaningless. Note that "Al Qaida" is a CIA invention: I mean the term. As I understand (there was a BR Monitor paper a while back IIRC), the term refers to The Base == Root Directory == list of names of Mujaheddin who came through ISI Safe House in Peshawar and went out to kill Russians in Afghanistan. The only known record of who came and went, the list was allowed to exist apparently to console relatives who came seeking info. No actual terrorist called himself Al Qaeda or Al Qaida or anything. Al Shabab (what does that mean?) is just another bunch. The Sierra Leone Lollipop Boyz who went around chopping ppl's limbs were another. All same. So let's call them IS-Global.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Thinking through, I see that ppl are so used to discussing "Strategic Affairs" through the lens of today's news, that they won't think of the BS events, even those that are most likely.
The one (other than the aircraft carrier sinking) which seems to be scariest is the detonation of a nuclear weapon in a large city. Or a large military base.

This was in many people's minds as a horror, circa 2001/2002, but ppl have forgotten it in complacency. Detecting a nuke coming through say a container, is nearly impossible, though several nations have installed an astonishing number and variety of detectors. Even today, HumInt warnings are by far the only hope of timely detection and interception. The carpet-bombing of Raqqa is not talked about in the media, but I am sure it must have ampified the Victim Syndrome of ISIS and their admirers HUGEly. Whatever hesitancy they had to use a nuke, will have disappeared. We don't know exactly what threat the US warned Moscow about in time, recently - hope it wasn't a suitcase nuke but I do wonder.
Anyone care to think through the aftermath and global shock waves of all sorts, from such an event?

Imagine that it happened in City X, where City X can be successively imagined to be in different countries. Think through the aftermath there, on that nation, and on the world specifically India.
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Karthik S »

UlanBatori wrote:Let's take #5: Genocide in Rwanda. Hope Lisaji can provide perspective on why it happened. And can the same occur again elsewhere? Say in Sindh? Or in BD ( I mean between Believers..) Or will the festivities in Myanmar involving Rohingyas engulf all of Myanmar?
Can't really compare Rwandan genocide and rohingyas in myanmar. Rwanda was about two 'castes' if I may put it so, one were Hutu and the other were Tutsi, the former were mostly working class and the later were 'upper' class. We can all probably guess who drove the wedge between the two communities to that extent. IIRC, it all started when a leader of Hutu was killed, they organized a militia against Tutsi, the death toll is about 6 to 8 lakh and about 2 lakh women were raped.

BTW, guess who was one of the 'participants'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... a-genocide
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

Hmmm... I had no idea about that part. Such missionaries of love and peace.
One learns something new every din on BRF. Perhaps what happened in Myanmar is that the military intervened to PREVENT the situation from sliding into the Rwanda mode? In Rwanda, once the Tutsis got organized in the next door nation, they swept through and overthrew the Hutu regime in a hurry. Perhaps the Myanmar military saw the situation correctly and did this sweep before it deteriorated. Haven't heard any more about the sham "trial" set up by the Ummah types + the leftists against Myanmar.
The Rohingyas certainly went on a spree of killing and raping against others. They were stopped and basically expelled.

IMO what the Myanmar military did, perhaps stopped the problem from spreading into, say, Thailand, which I am sure must have its share of the Ummah.
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2069
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by SRajesh »

#5
Inter-Ethnic conflict is the main reason of troubles in Africa.
Two reasons if I may say:
a. arbitrary division and creation of states by the Eyropean powers disregarding the ethnic bonds led to tribe being divided across the line of two states
b. And the Eyeropean concept of democracy failed to take root given strong ethnic bonds and historical trust deficit between tribes
And sir add to this cauldron: natural resources/military dictatorship/indirect intervention by the P5 members for their own benefit
Only north Africa you would find religion playing a part : Sudan north(Arabic/Muslim) south(Xian Nilotic), Nigeria Xian/Muslim divide
Maybe in these regions Al Shabab type sunni (Isis/Al Queda) may take root
Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by Vikas »

Seems like Most of the Black Swan events involve Muslims either way.

What about BD going under due to rising oceans and then a beeline at the border to get into India ?
What is India going to do with such a surge in refugee numbers.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

^^BD ocean rise will be gradual, interspersed with massive cyclones. So population pressure yes, refugee problem into India only if the former leads to genocidal campaigns, IMO.

But vikasji's first observation, gives rise to BS#15:
The rise of a XS: Xtian or Xenophobic as u prefer. A massive "backlash" by non-Islamic mobsters.
Imagine that u r a Billionaire^n, n>1. Good Gawd-fiyaring leader, generous sponsor of such kind entities as Aryan Nations, Alabama School of The Americas etc. U r tired of reading of dem ***elheads killing good Xtians, tired of the games of dem oily Shakes. See a fine opportunity for Gawd to reward His Faithful with a few Qintillion $ worth of oil and shipping lanes. Free of Is***.

U get together with ur co-Aryans, who have just come off organizing the Ayrab Spring and rubbing their hands in glee at the success of their Crusade.
U expand ur portfolio, to form something far more powerful than ISIS/ISIL. Launch a Crusade x times worse than the worst in the Medieval times, when they had put their bibis n chastity belts and ride off for a decade or so to fight for D1ck The Lion-Assed and other Kings, committing massacres in Muslim-majority parts. (Towns in France for instance, with history of 3000 put to the sword here there etc).

U also get a hold of a few Fuel-air Explosive bums, maybe hire the White Helmet Franchise, etc. Set off a global upheaval. Difference is the use of WMD and gangs of trained mercenaries, rather than huge mobs of stupid Faithful. Objective: Re-conquer places such as (oily ones first) Gelf, Indonesia, KSA, North Africa, West Africa. Ethnic cleansing. Graduate to Ethiopia, Yemen, Azerbaijan. Re-ignite Bosnia, Norway, Sweden.

The phenomenon is not recognized as anything other than another Arab Spring, until far too late: u have excellent cover from friends and sympathizers in the top levels of NATO govts.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

And the same entities could very well set off a WMD or 2 in major "western democracies" duly blamed on Islamic terrorists.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

B4 ramana sends the Bredators: I don't see much of the sophisticated Risk Analysis that ramana indicated, but rest assured, UBCN Research has not been idle, with our vast Artificial Intelligence resources (ain't got none of the natural kind):
Here is a preliminary risk list of BS events imagined so far.
1. (top) WMD event in a major city: either a capital of a major G-7 or BRICS nation, or a top financial center. >50K deaths and 1M hurt.
Everything else is so far below as to be in the noise level compared to this (except natural disasters).
Perhaps we can get people to post their imagination of just what will happen in the aftermath of this.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Chicken Little and Black Swan. Disaster Avoidance

Post by UlanBatori »

c what I mean? ramanji scared away the Great Thinkers by insisting on 4-Step Risk Analysis etc. We need rambling give-and-take, to develop the real ideas and knowledge framework! :((
Post Reply