US and PRC relationship & India

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 Apr 2014 03:57

Cosmo and KrishnaK garu,

If a survey by a foreign cuntry X pulls out numbers to say Indians are Xcuntryphilic i have no problem as any reasonable cuntry will circulate the survey results amongst its own population - so in this case ordinarily massa citizens would come to know that they have pockets of appreciation in India and this knowledge in massaland may be beneficial to India.
But massa is as you know , an exceptional cuntry. Instead of circulating the survey amongst their own to feel good about themselves (even if undeservedly) they attach another (dubious) conclusion that Indians see China as a longterm enemy - and then use their Indian media minions to circulate the survey results amongst Indians themselves to make them harden their views on China (undeservedly again).All the while they will be feeding bositive newj(on issues like rapes,human rights,toilets,corruption,Yindoo fundamentalists etc)to the massalanders on their India specific troll sections/blogs in NYT,WSJ etc.

Silence is pregnant and Indians don't require Massa or its minions in media articulating an unflattering nonexistent stand on China on behalf of India (even before it organically crystallizes in one direction or another among aam indians). If indian state needs to do it, we have All India Radio, Doordarshan or MEA spokesperson or our own NSSO .So no thank you.
Particulaly now as Indo-chinese relations are being negotiated (while side stepping massa contributed "Asian Pivot" traps) and are a work in progress.Potential looks good .Mutual trade will eclipse IndoMassa levels in the short term (much to the envy of massa). We are on the cusp of getting a new PM (after the massaphilic looser currently in office is uncermoniously booted out - he can go assist Bush junior in his portraits now). The new PM has already been continuously snubbed by massa , while was welcomed to and visited many-e-times to China , all indications point him to be a successor of PVNR's look east policy - with regard to developing new links with both China and Japan(again with whose PM Abe he enjoys a personal rapport).

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 07 Apr 2014 04:39

Lilo understand your POV. But, remember it was Vajpayee and George Fernandes who termed the China as the enemy in POK2. Look at all the things they have done WRT Pakistan and encircling us.

We've come to the conclusion about PRC long before this poll.

As far as their shunning Modi, I would hazard a guess that it more than 50% at the behest of the UPA. Do recall the infamous MP letter. If you were in the DoS neverland and you got repeated messages on Modi from the PMO and 'High Command' what would you do?

INC has played a really dirty game and I am shocked at some of the things they have done to stay in power.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Apr 2014 12:10

Both US and China are and have been equally dangerous to us. However, what tilts the balance in favour of China, as a more dangerous country for India, is the militaristic approach of China towards us. Unlike the US, China is irredentist. It has large territorial claims against us. Its military had thrashed us before and is trying to incrementally grab our land, it has nuclear warhead bearing missiles targetted at us, its direct support for Pakistan solely aimed at us is much more than how the US also makes use of Pakistan against us. Its support for terrorism against India is deeper, more widespread and long-running than the few instances when the US has done so. China looks at us also as a competitor which the US may not. In fact, the Chinese attempt to dismiss Indian threat as non-existent is a carefully cultivated and exhibited face of China and is not the whole truth.

After POK II, the US tried to sharpen the differences between India and China by deliberately leaking a confidential letter by ABV attributing China as the cause for India going nuclear. Later, it handed over the formulation of the draft in the UNSC condemning India in the hands of China. We overcame the chill in the India-China relationship because of the way we handled the post-POK II fallout. These countries had no alternative other than to talk to us once again.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 20 Apr 2014 21:59

China the most Christian nation in 15 years

Christian congregations in particular have skyrocketed since churches began reopening when Chairman Mao's death in 1976 signalled the end of the Cultural Revolution.
Less than four decades later, some believe China is now poised to become not just the world's number one economy but also its most numerous Christian nation.
"By my calculations China is destined to become the largest Christian country in the world very soon," said Fenggang Yang, a professor of sociology at Purdue University and author of Religion in China: Survival and Revival under Communist Rule.
"It is going to be less than a generation. Not many people are prepared for this dramatic change."
China's Protestant community, which had just one million members in 1949, has already overtaken those of countries more commonly associated with an evangelical boom. In 2010 there were more than 58 million Protestants in China compared to 40 million in Brazil and 36 million in South Africa, according to the Pew Research Centre's Forum on Religion and Public Life.
Prof Yang, a leading expert on religion in China, believes that number will swell to around 160 million by 2025. That would likely put China ahead even of the United States, which had around 159 million Protestants in 2010 but whose congregations are in decline.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 20 Apr 2014 23:17

What is it they used to say about the Chinaman's facility at mimicry?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Apr 2014 08:56

China and India urged to forge closer economic bonds
http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/ar ... omic-bonds

Government-level talks between China and India are needed in building a complementary economic relationship to unlock the Asian giants' full potential to create an economic superpower bloc, says an Indian business leader."But achieving business synergy would depend on how well the Chinese and Indian governments manage the relationship, said Tata, who was recently appointed to the board of the forum."We [China and India] can create an economic superpower," Tata said. "China has developed technology that India could use, while Chinese investment in industries such as infrastructure and telecommunications would help create jobs and boost India's economic growth. This requires the endorsement of both governments.
Economic growth in China and India has been slowing, though to a much greater extent in India. China's current annual target is about 7.5 per cent while India's growth rate has slumped to about 5 per cent from double-digit figures of past years.Tata Group produces Land Rover cars with Chery in China.
"If we can join forces and make [China's economic growth rise to] 8 per cent or 8.5 per cent, and [India's economic growth rise to] 6 or 7 per cent, that would be a win-win situation for us," Tata said."Can we do that with Europe? I doubt it. Can we do that with the United States? Maybe, more than with Europe, but still, compared with China, [the opportunity is] very low."There is no market barrier between the two countries in policy terms, but Tata said some Indian companies fear Chinese competition."I believe India fears China will overrun India's economy [if more Chinese business is allowed in]," Tata said. "But it would help India to have China as an investor. Having the Chinese build telecoms or other infrastructure would create jobs. It would be a threat to competing Indian companies, but to the country, it would be a growth issue."
Tata Group's presence in China includes a joint venture with Chinese carmaker Chery Automobile, with which it produces the premium car brand Jaguar Land Rover that the Tatas own. It also sources equipment from Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei."Our experience with Huawei is excellent," said Tata, who was impressed by a recent visit to Huawei's China headquarters.Greater co-operation between Chinese and Indian companies cannot take place without the support of the two governments, said Tata, adding that a free-trade treaty is needed to boost economic relations between the two countries.Border tension between the two has hindered an economic and political relationship between the neighbours, which fought a brief war in 1962 in the high Himalayas over conflicting territorial claims."For historical reasons at the government level, relations are not as friendly as they should be between India and China," Tata said.With a new government expected to take charge in New Delhi after the five-week parliamentary elections that started on April 7, Tata said he could not comment on whether there would be any changes in Sino-Indian ties."I would hope the two governments sit together" and address each other's importance, he said.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Apr 2014 09:03

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 931419.ece
India-US ties headed for rough weather over drug IP issue
(Washington may withdraw duty-free benefits, impose penalties; India may move WTO. IMHO, Indian Companies have already reconciled to this penalties etc & now dont care if they loose market percentage in US)

NEW DELHI, Facing the threat of sanctions by the US for what it terms India’s lax intellectual property (IP) rules, the Commerce Ministry is studying the possible impact on trade with the US if Washington goes ahead with its action.The Office of the US Trade Representative is to come out with its annual Special 301 report by the month-end on the adequacy and effectiveness of IP rights protection by its trading partners.If the report classifies India as a ‘priority foreign country’ — as demanded by the US pharmaceutical lobby — Washington could impose economic sanctions against India that will include withdrawal of duty-free benefits or imposition of penal duties.The USTR’s earlier reports have put India under the ‘priority watch list’, as a country that needs to tighten its IP regime.A Commerce Ministry official told Business Line “that “since the US is one of our largest export destinations, it is important to understand how much our trade could get hit if sanctions are imposed. We may have to take steps to support sections of our industry that get affected”.Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth has called a meeting of senior officials of the Ministries and Departments concerned, including Commerce, Industry and Pharmaceuticals, to discuss the imminent threat of sanctions.New Delhi believes that the threat is unjustified as the category of ‘priority foreign country’ is reserved for very serious intellectual property law offenders, while India’s legislation is in line with global specifications.Ukraine is the only country on the list at the moment.“We will examine in detail the options available under the dispute settlement undertaking of the WTO, in case it (India) does get categorised as a ‘priority foreign country’,” the official said. Retaliatory action, too, could be considered, he added.Although India amended its patent laws in 2005 to bring them in line with the Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights of the World Trade Organisation, US drug majors are upset with Section 3 (d) of the country’s patent law, which refuses to grant patents for incremental innovations.With pharmaceutical companies expected to take a hit of over $40 billion in 2014 revenues and $50 billion the next year as their patents run out, the US is under pressure to force India to drop the provision.Pharmaceutical companies are also unhappy with New Delhi’s decision of 2012 to grant a compulsory licence to an Indian company for the manufacture of a copied version of Bayer’s cancer medicine, Nexavar.This move brought down the price of the drug by 90 per cent.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 03 May 2014 03:36

Uneven's script , promptly echoed by PTI

US may have to ‘reconsider attitude’ towards Modi-led India

The US may have to “reconsider its attitude” towards India if BJP wins power and Narendra Modi becomes prime minister, a top American expert on South Asia has said.

“Modi and his strategy, if I can summarize it…India is going to be squeaking loud and is going to be doing things, some risky, some dangerous and some positive…and I think the American policy has to reconsider its attitude towards India,” Stephen Cohen, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, at the India Project at Brookings Institution said at a panel discussion on Indian elections on Tuesday.

India under Modi, he said, is going to attract more attention and the US would have to adjust to that, strategically, politically and economically.

“I think, the big change that I see, we all thought Modi would transform India’s economy. I think, that’s true if there is a Modi government.That is going to give him (Modi) more muscle and leverage in foreign policy. And the key country is China plus Japan and South Korea. Modi has close relationship with China, Japan and South Korea and a bad relationship with the US,” Cohen told a Washington audience, which among others was addressed by Indian Ambassador to the US S Jaishankar.

“He (Modi) is going to expand this into strategic advantage for India. That is he is going to use the economic relationship with East Asia, especially China, to enhance India’s power elsewhere.

“The original Nehruvian dream to make India among the top five-six countries of the world, I think he (Modi) is going to implement that,” said Cohen who has written several books on India and is considered to be among the authoritative voices on India in the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kx5cVT97ZA&t=35m0s

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2014 04:57

Looks like US has gamed various scenarios for a Modi run India and is trialling various measures.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jun 2014 22:31

Very good X-Posts...

Rudradev wrote:
Paul wrote:
Last night I was thinking what would have happened if 9/11 had not happened. US was looking for a Bakara for target practice after Kosovo. If AQ/Eyeraq had not happened they could have come after India.
Paul, they were ALREADY well on their way to coming after India. See all that was happening with the US throughout the '90s.

First, Pressler amendment to allow Pakis to be armed while actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

Second, Robin Raphael shenanigans in J&K, virtually midwifing the birth of Hurriyat.

Third, a number of sanctions regimes threatened against India, and some actually deployed like the MTCR. In contrast, all evidence of TSP's intensifying jihadi proxy war against India was either ignored or covered up (cf. the grenades from Mumbai '93 attack).

Fourth, increasingly shrill public discourse by US "experts" about the need for international solutions to Cashmere, Hindoo fundamentalism (Babri Masjid etc.), India's poor "human rights" record, and India's hegemonic designs in South Asia.

Fifth, a simultaneous campaign to invest TSPA as an anchoring force in the US-led geopolitical order, including active collusion in the subordination of elected Benazir/Sharif governments to the increasingly Islamized TSPA/ISI power structure. This was the real origin of the US-UK-Saudi-China "four fathers" axis as an organized group with big plans for their favourite son Pakistan... all had supported Pakistan individually in the past but at this point it became a coordinated nexus.

Sixth, helping TSPA/ISI "stabilize" Afghanistan with the Taliban, and working hard through Track-II to confer acceptance and respectability on the Taliban.

Seventh, an explosion in American goodwill towards Beijing as the economic relationship blossomed, and willfully ignoring Chinese proliferation to Pakistan.

There was SURELY something being planned at the time we conducted Pokhran II. In fact, Kargil had probably been envisioned and plotted out long before 1998, in Washington and Islamabad, as the opening gambit to taking J&K away from India. Send intruders, occupy heights, take advantage of jihadi "insurgency" rising to fever pitch, provoke India to cross LOC/IB in retaliation, and then attack her like Iraq or Yugoslavia.

As you suggest, I believe we threw a spanner in these works with Pokhran II in 1998. All previous calculations were off the table. Musharraf, like a spoilt child, wanted his lollipop anyway and went ahead with the Kargil plan, hoping the Americans would carry off their promised part of it (using "internationalization of nuclear flashpoint" as an excuse). But Clinton decided against it because there actually WERE nukes in the picture at this point... publicly acknowledged to exist BOTH in India's hands AND in Pakistan's.

(Remember how Clinton had begged tearfully that Nawaz should not conduct Chagai tests in response to Pokhran II? That was because a "nuclear rogue India" and "non-nuclear-armed Pakistan" would have been a perfect justification for American intervention following a Kargil-type intrusion. Sharif messed that up by testing, and therefore had to return empty handed after his meeting with Clinton during Kargil. THAT may be why the TSPA was so angry with him. Remember also that Madeline Albright had already proposed a Kosovo-style SEAD campaign against India in response to the Pokhran tests, letting the cat out of the bag!)

Let's always remember: while Pakis are not mentally stable, their widespread and persistent delusion that America will help them "Get Kashmir" did not exactly evolve out of thin air; it is a public reference to promises that had been privately made, and for which plans had in fact been laid but later scrapped.

I don't think we will ever quite understand the full import of what two governments... PV Narasimha Rao's and Atal Bihari Vajpayee's... REALLY did to safeguard India during those perilous times. Not until many deeply-buried files are declassified (by the Americans, not by us) decades from now.

and

Paul wrote:Thanks RDji, we paradoxically have to thank AQ for this. ABV bought us the extra time we needed by dint of POK II and the rest is history. It should also be noted that 9/11 precipitated the 2001 dot com meltdown. This meltdown caused at least $1 Trillion damage to the US economy. In turn the US thought they were being very smart and Machiavellian in invading Iraq and costing the US another $3 Trillion. In all his damage caused the US at least $4 Trillion and consequent lack of support from the US public for another misadventure. The Afghan misadventure has cost the US more buckets of money.

This has bought India at least 10 - 15 precious years, strengthened the Pakistani Taliban and consequently weakened Pakistan. All this time India had the weakest government since independence .

The last decade, had POKHRAN II and 9/11 not happened, may have been the best time to take down India.

With China showing signs of breaking out of western pacific region, TTP gathering steam in Pakistan, and the meltdown in Iraq, the US will be embroiled in these regions for quite some time to come.

So the question is, with loss of prosperity in the west, Iraq/Syria involvement, belated realization over Pakistan's reliability above and of course the 2007 meltdown , has the window of opportunity for the west to take down India passed for some time?

We can continue in another thread.

Please continue here for continuity!!!

Also think about recent economics POV article about tying down India thru multi-lateral trade agreements.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 27 Jun 2014 22:44

So the key chain of events 1998 - 2014 are
1.POKHRAN-II
2. Kargil
3. 9/11
4. US invasion of Afghanistan
5. Invasion of Iraq / Withdrawal
6. Libya
7. TTP bombing of Marriott/Mehran/Kamra/Lal Masjid/Benazir assassination/OBL etc.
7. China breaking out of first chain of islands (ADIZ/Japan/Philipines etc)
8 Unravelling of Syria
9 Unravelling of Iraq - ISIS.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 27 Jun 2014 22:46

Again - could the weakest government we have had be foisted on us by design to extend the window.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 27 Jun 2014 22:56

Jarita, I have a felling the window of opportunity has closed for now. TTP gaining strength in Pakistan has unsettled the old equations. As of now they do not know what to do about NaMo but as I said earlier they may be wanting him to come to NY in September and watch his next steps closely. As I said earlier Janes news about the rare earth plant opening in Mysore gives us the inkling of what is coming down the road.

I was watching Robert Kaplan's video on the youtube and he wrote book called Monsoon. He says China is blessed by geography and India is cursed with failing states on its borders. Not for the last 1200 years has China seen weak neighbours on it's borders and this gives it strong confidence. Hence with its back secured it is now trying to break out in the western pacific with the SCS as the first test.

With the US having its hands full in Iraq and China showing its aankhe at Uncle's harem in the Pacific, US needs India to look eastwards not just economically but also extend its navy eastwards. That is why they want us to buy the P-8 Maritime surveillance aircraft. Keep Paki interests in mind, they have long kept India out of action in the Gulf region and will not ask for our help unless it is for body bags as Powell did in 2004.

I have attached the Kaplan video for reference.

STRATFOR conversation

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 27 Jun 2014 23:27

But we cannot be complacent. India is a enemy state for western civilization, whether they state it or not.
I wonder if we could ever be preemptive rather than reactive. Maybe far fetched

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Jun 2014 23:48

In The Name Of PVNR,this Might Be Relevant "hare"

China explores security cooperation with Pakistan, India: report

http://www.dawn.com/news/1115496/china- ... dia-report

Beijing is exploring a trilateral security cooperation with its neighbouring countries India and Pakistan, said a report published on NDTV on Friday.
Journalists representing the Global Times, an affiliate of the ruling Communist Party of China’s (CPC) People’s Daily publication group, paid a visit to Pakistan and sought views from scholars of Islamabad Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) on a likely India-China-Pakistan trilateral cooperation.
Analysts based in Beijing consider it a vital initiative on China’s part to further its relations with India over rising concerns of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the possible shattering effect it could posit to the region, particularly China’s Xinjiang province where security forces were currently engaged in dealing with attacks launched by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). "So far no formal trilateral meeting has taken place, but the idea sounds excellent," Najam Rafique, senior IISS research fellow told NDTV about the joint trilateral mechanism.Before that, a lot of ground needs to be covered, particularly in terms of India and Pakistan, he said."China can play a role in ensuring that both countries are able to disperse the historical barricades and move in terms of ensuring the security which is going to be based on not traditional military security, but economic, social and popular security in the region," he said.Meanwhile, scholar Ahmed Rashid said China and Pakistan were currently building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor whereas China was also developing the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor.He said the Chinese policy would pave way for better investment and economic relations in the region while also creating further room for cooperation.Whereas analyst Malik Khokhar said a joint mechanism should be set up in order to reduce military hostilities among the three nations. He said that in the absence of the mechanism, there would be unending competition because if India would compete against China, then it would definitely have more than enough capability to compete against Pakistan. Scholar Rana Anjum said it was hoped that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government in India would work with China and Pakistan for greater prosperity in the region.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Jun 2014 05:45

The aggressive posture of TSP and PRC is not sustainable

India should not fall for this trap which reduces the internal burden of TSP and PRC

India has to have a seperate agreement with PRC and Seperate one for TSP

Met some junior officers of MEA recently. They have the right idea of how to engage PRC and China

The notion of BRICs and multipolar world is going forward.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jun 2014 08:21

Tri-Lateral gives a life line to a sinking state. No need for that.

Meanwhile it is in PRC interests to engage India for its own benefit.
No need to add a TSP lemma.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Jun 2014 10:57

ramana wrote:Tri-Lateral gives a life line to a sinking state. No need for that.
Meanwhile it is in PRC interests to engage India for its own benefit.
No need to add a TSP lemma.

The main message is now PRC is thinking to shed load to move ahead. How long are they going to tie themselves with Paki interests? Despite being arrogant , they understand the gorund realities better than GOPOTUS Loudoses.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 28 Jun 2014 23:56

PRC will not give up on Pakistan so easily. first step is dropping Pakistan in bilateral discussions. in essence, treat Pakis as the third-rate idiots that they are. dangerous idiots, but idiots nonetheless. we have to work on this.

also, as long as PoK remains in Paki hands, PRC will not give up on Pak. if we think we will sever that devil's alliance by talking smooth, we have more hard lesson in the future to learn. severing the Paki land connection to CAR+PRC will be the real deal in terms of turning the page on India-China relations. in essence, we are held hostage by the incompetence of Nehru's leadership in 1948, when UN and the world powers were invited into J&K, when the IA had actually broken through the Paki front-lines and was advancing to reclaim the occupied territory. now that mistake still haunts us.

as long as the Paki Northern sector is not rolled back to the vicinity of Punjab hinterlands, PRC+USA (and even Russia) will never take India seriously.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Jun 2014 01:31

Jhujar, As of now after NaMo, PRC is not giving stapled visas for J&K. Only Arunachal Pradesh.
This means J&K is not disputed in their minds.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Jun 2014 08:33

Hamid Ansari has already conveyed To PRC leadrship about the Indian concerns and objections on Paki occupied J&K territory to be used for building railway network to link with Pakinbredstan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Jun 2014 08:51

People ask me

I keep on wondering what is it about Current India(bereft of Civilisational inertia) that prompts US to destabilise?

I too used to wonder in the early 2000s. Then Google chacha released their book collection of past copyright books. What struck me was the vast number of books written by retired British officials and published by US publishers.The books were selected by so called Boston Brahmins. Then I understood that they were studying India for that is the basis of the British power.
With the British in decline India is their rival.

Panchatantra tale of Lion, Ox and Jackal.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Jun 2014 10:14

China's maps showing Ar.P as Chinese territory while preaching "Panchsheel" displays their utter hypocrisy.and duplcity.On the one hand they want to engage in trade that benefits them alone,plus gettign India to lower its guard,while relentlessly building up their military strength and expanding their military reach and presence in POK,Gwadar which will reach upto the Gulf.

India should also show Tibet as an independent state in its maps,issue chit visas to all Chinese residing in Tibet and engage with Taiwan in a concerted effort to promote closer ties with the island entity.We should also provide Vietnam with nuclear plants and a wide range of missiles from Prithvi to Brahmos.
If the PLAN can establish a naval base at Gwadar then so should we establish naval bases,etc. in Vietnam which has supposedly offered them to us.China only respects strength.The Modi govt. should not make the same mistake of the MMS regime,which was all about appeasement to China and Pak
Fortune favours the brave.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Jul 2014 05:39

Can Modi and Xi grab the moment?

CUB

60 years of Panchsheel: Can Modi and Xi grab the moment?

India and China marked but did not celebrate the 60th anniversary of the historic Panchsheel agreement in Beijing on Saturday (June 28), and the choice of word is instructive. It was appropriate that Vice President Hamid Ansari represented Delhi at this event.

By C Uday Bhaskar
TheIndianDiaspora.com
Jun 30, 2014

India and China marked but did not celebrate the 60th anniversary of the historic Panchsheel agreement in Beijing on Saturday (June 28), and the choice of word is instructive. It was appropriate that Vice President Hamid Ansari represented Delhi at this event.

Chinese President Xi Jinping projected an image of a peace-loving nation and noted expansively: "China does not subscribe to the notion that a country is bound to seek hegemony when it grows in strength. Hegemony or militarism is not in the genes of the Chinese. China will unswervingly pursue peaceful development because it is good for China, good for Asia and good for the world."

However, an objective assessment of the last six decades of the uneasy India-China relationship indicates a reality that is at variance with the benign image outlined by President Xi.

The Panchsheel agreement was signed between India and China in April 1954 and hailed as a model for consensual cooperation between the two Asian giants who had become independent nations in 1947 and 1949 respectively. Derived from ancient Buddhist tenets, the term Panchsheel combined two words (Panch – five, and sheel – virtue ) and denoted the five virtues that were to govern the bilateral relationship: namely, mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; mutual non-aggression; mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit: and peaceful coexistence.

The principles are unexceptionable and could well be held up as a normative universal template and were rightly described by Ansari as “impeccable”.

However, as is well known, the aspiration contained in the letter and spirit of Panchsheel reduced to that pithy phrase ”Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai” (India-China brother-brother) remained elusive. The 1962 Sino-Indian war over disputed territorial claims effectively soured any possibility of the two Asian neighbours relating to each other in a constructive manner. Diplomatic ties were severed for almost a quarter of a century.

The frayed threads were picked up only in 1988, and now 26 years later the bilateral relationship is more robust but not devoid of the wariness and a degree of mistrust that the two nations have of each other. In the last three decades China has made impressive strides in becoming a major economic and military power and the political leadership exudes a determination that no doubt has been shaped by the 1989 Tiananmen experience.

India has also moved up the global economic hierarchy in the last two decades, albeit in a more modest manner and consequently the emergence of an Asian century has been possible due to the resurgence of these two neighbors. Their most distinctive and common characteristic is a vast demography and the political imperative for the leadership on both sides is to ensure poverty alleviation and creating an equitable socio-economic model that will usher in an improvement in sustainable prosperity levels for over two billion people.

The true emergence of an Asian century will be possible only if India and China can evolve a framework that goes back to adhering to the Panchsheel spirit. While the more discerning policy makers know this reality, the path to realizing this goal appears intractable.

The mistrust and suspicion that exists is considerable and complex. The territorial dispute apart, as is often noted in India – there is a strongly held view that China seeks a multi-polar global order (meaning parity with the USA) but would like to maintain a unipolar Asia (meaning that Japan and India cannot be perceived to be the co-equals ). This is shared by some leading China scholars, and Professor Roderick Macfarquhar of Harvard University observes : “I don't think that China's current leaders will accept the idea of any other country in Asia being truly equal with them long term i.e. they don't fundamentally think of Asia developing in multi-polar terms.”

China today has a comprehensive national power (CNP) index that is greater than that of India. The broad reduction is that a factor of four is the operative gap – whether GDP or military expenditure – China is about four times larger than that of India, and this gap is likely to grow in Beijing’s favor. Thus it would be misleading and improbable to suggest that India is seeking equivalence with China in such tangible indicators. It is not, in the short term.

What works in India’s favor are the intangible indicators, namely the open and diverse socio-political system and the inherent resilience of the Indian polity. Notwithstanding the many asymmetries that punctuate the Delhi-Beijing relationship and the lower CNP index of India , what is missing yet desirable is a consensual ‘mutuality’ – wherein both sides accept and accommodate the legitimate aspirations and anxieties of the other, against the backdrop of the complex interdependence that globalization impels and the many turbulences that dot the global strategic arena.

The most urgent challenge is to introduce an element of candour and truth in the high-level political dialogue, and nowhere is this more required than in the nuclear weapon-terrorism linkage. To put it more unambiguously – China has been using Pakistan as a proxy power to fetter India and has engaged in the covert transfer of nuclear weapons and missiles since the last three decades. The Pakistan army has in turn used this nuclear-missile firewall to pursue its terror option against India, and the May 1990 nuclear crisis is a case in point.

One can assert from personal experience that Chinese interlocutors, when queried about this contradiction between espousing friendship with India in public even while pursuing such a reckless and deviant proliferation policy, feign complete ignorance and obdurately refuse to acknowledge the truth. It may be useful to recall an old Mao dictum on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of Panchsheel – that truth must be obtained from facts.

The election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi marks a new phase in the political resolve associated with Delhi and the need for India and China to review their tangled bilateral relationship with renewed integrity and purpose is critical. Revisiting deeply ingrained national narratives about the perceived perfidy of the ‘other’ would be a useful initiative and the challenge for those who shape the bilateral discourse is onerous.

President Xi cannot be oblivious to the fact that most of China’s proximate Asian neighbours are worried about Beijing’s muscular assertiveness now manifest in the maritime domain. Thus it would not be strategically prudent to nudge India into the Japan- ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) cluster, thereby leaving North Korea and Pakistan as the most reliable friends of China.

Astute and enlightened political acumen would lie in internalizing the ‘impeccable’ spirit of Panchsheel and extending it to the Asian milieu – with Chindian characteristics. Will Xi and Modi be able to realize this opportunity?

(C Uday Bhaskar is Distinguished Fellow at the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted atcudaybhaskar@spsindia.in)

I will reply after I think over the matters.

CUB is providing a template for China to break the old paradigm.

i like his realism. A true shishya of KS garu.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 04 Jul 2014 04:48

this sort of thing should be encouraged (in china). Taller friends, they will become.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 04 Jul 2014 18:41

X-post...

schinnas wrote:It is not clear what drives US media to indulge in articles that dont reflect reality in India but paint India in bad light. Heights of it was the mention of Gujarat and pogrom against muslims in the same sentence. It is sometimes explained as the urge to show as friend of muslim world to reduce muslim anger against Khans.

Now China has restricted (and banned in some instances) Ramzan fasting for its muslim citizens in Uighur. But no news coverage of it in BeeBeeCee or CeeYenYen! Even Chipanda's taller deeper friend has some news coverage on it. What gives?

http://www.dawn.com/news/1116546/china- ... n-xinjiang

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Jul 2014 23:57

schinnas wrote:X-post...

schinnas wrote:It is not clear what drives US media to indulge in articles that dont reflect reality in India but paint India in bad light. Heights of it was the mention of Gujarat and pogrom against muslims in the same sentence. It is sometimes explained as the urge to show as friend of muslim world to reduce muslim anger against Khans.

Now China has restricted (and banned in some instances) Ramzan fasting for its muslim citizens in Uighur. But no news coverage of it in BeeBeeCee or CeeYenYen! Even Chipanda's taller deeper friend has some news coverage on it. What gives?

http://www.dawn.com/news/1116546/china- ... n-xinjiang

Paid media report on India has hidden hand and has many sponsors from foreign countries
Post it in the media thread

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2014 01:11

HT report of UK study

India to be a golbal military power by 2045

The study seems to be linear projection of current state. If anyone can access it please post the link here

India a global military power by 2045: UK study
Prasun Sonwalkar Prasun Sonwalkar,

Hindustan Times London, July 02, 2014

A global scenario projected by Britain’s ministry of defence says that by 2045 India is likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally with the third largest defence expenditure pegged at 654 billion US dollars.

Titled ‘Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045’, the publication by the ministry’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre sets out what the world might look like 30 years from now. It looks at a range variables, including energy, mineral resources, conflict and migration.

“Although China’s military-industrial complex is unlikely to surpass the technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may rival it in terms of size, as could India’s. Both India and China will probably seek to develop sizeable and technically advanced armed forces, including ocean-going navies, capable of delivering an enduring and capable maritime presence both regionally and further afield”, the paper says.

The analysis on South & East Asia and Oceania says: “The military capabilities of other countries in the region are also likely to increase but only China, India, Australia, Japan (which is actively increasing its military capability) and South Korea are likely to have the ability to project conventional military power globally”.

However, the analysis notes that although India is likely to spend more on defence than the UK, it will “almost certainly have to overcome domestic political issues and improve the way it invests to attain the capabilities needed to project conventional military power globally”.

According to the projection, the US and China are likely to have similarly sized defence budgets, potentially out-spending the rest of the world by 2045. India could have a defence budget equivalent to the EU’s total spending on defence, it says.

“Additionally, China, India and the US are likely to lead in defence-related research and development – further enhancing their military capabilities”, the paper says.

In terms of Technology, the paper says that China and India are likely to attain global leadership in select technical disciplines, achieving parity with the West in a number of niche areas as soon as 2015 and more widely by 2045.

Stating that China and India will “almost certainly continue to be the dominant powers” in the region, the paper says that the ways the two countries manage their societies’ demands and their internal methods of governance will be important to the region’s development.

In terms of conflict, it is projected that Kashmir would continue to one of the areas of tension, including the border between China and India. “The risk of a major state-on-state conflict in the region cannot be ruled out”, it says.

The paper is based on inputs from a range of individuals and global institutions, including India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, United Services Institute and the Vivekananda International Foundation.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 31 Jul 2014 01:29

ramana wrote:HT report of UK study.The study seems to be linear projection of current state. If anyone can access it please post the link here

Linear projections goes wrong most of the times. Recall projections in 80s of Japan becoming world's largest economy by 2010 or the projections in 60s of Soviet Union overrunning Western Europe.

Original report here

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... ecured.pdf

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Jul 2014 04:15

if Jammu and Kashmir is still an issue in 2045, then forget about "global power projection".

this is Brit-speak paranoia propaganda. J&K "crisis" and "global projection" are mutually exclusive. if former is true, the later is not real. if the later is real, then the former issue has been solved. there is not other way for India.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jul 2014 18:48

Two replies....

RamaY wrote:
ramana wrote:HT report of UK study

India to be a golbal military power by 2045

The study seems to be linear projection of current state. If anyone can access it please post the link here
Ramanaji.. most of these guys are calculating a 2-2.5% of GDP calculation based on GDP projections.

Starting at $2T in 2014 growing at 6% annually India's GDP will be $12T in 2045. A 2% of GDP in 2045 would be $240b military budget.

The interesting thing is at this rate India will invest >$1T in capital investments in military over next 30 yrs.

Suraj wrote:There's a consistent mistaken tendency to use real GDP growth estimates to make nominal growth projections. That's wrong. It is safe to say that an economy growing at 6% real growth rate grows 10% in size nominally. That means projected GDP in 2045 is not $12 trillion but $35 trillion, or almost 3 times as much. If you assume 6% nominal growth, that means you're projecting only about 3-4% real GDP growth . 2% of $35 trillion would be a $700B defence budget then, out of an annual revenue base of say 12% of GDP, or $4.2 trillion.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Aug 2014 00:00

U.S. Leads WMD Exercise without China, India

http://defensetech.org/2014/08/04/u-s-l ... ina-india/

U.S. Pacific Command on Monday kicked off a multi-national training exercise in interdicting and defending against weapons of mass destruction without the participation of the two major regional powers – China and India.The so-called Fortune Guard exercise in Hawaii “is just one that we’ve had scheduled for a while” to focus on the WMD threat, Adm. Samuel Locklear, head of the Pacific Command, said at a Pentagon briefing last week.Recent missile tests and threats by North Korea to launch nuclear weapons at the White House and Pentagon “will just re-emphasize the importance of getting it right during our exercise,” Locklear said.Fortune Guard was part of the international Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) aimed at stopping the trafficking of WMD, including the weapons’ precursors and delivery systems. The effort was launched in 2003 by the U.S. and 10 other nations and now includes 104 nations, but neither China nor India are signatories.The Defense Department had been open to having China included in Fortune Guard following the participation by four Chinese warships for the first time in the recently concluded Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises off Hawaii.“We would be thrilled to have China,” a senior DoD official said at a Pentagon briefing on Fortune Guard last month. “They have received multiple invitations,” the official said of the Chinese.Improving military-to-military ties with India will be a focal point of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s nine-day trip starting later this week this week that will take him to Germany, India and Australia. The trip will be Hagel’s first to India as Defense Secretary.Japan, South Korea and Australia were among the nations participating in Fortune Guard.“The exercise is designed to address the full range of weapons of mass destruction interdiction-related skill sets,” including rapid decision-making and operational tactics, PACOM said in a statement.In addition, there will be a tabletop exercise, a port exercise and a live exercise at sea involving the Henry J. Kaiser, a replenishment oiler from the Military Sealift Command. In the exercise, Japanese and South Korean boarding teams will stop and search the Kaiser, the senior official said.The official said that the nature of the WMD threat “has evolved substantially” since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. In the past, the WMD threat was more likely to involve the weapon itself, but “today the focus is much more on dual use items” that can be assembled into a weapon, (JDAM) the official said.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Aug 2014 01:20

A pdf on
Understanding India and China: Implications for US and World

Enjoy....

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 15 Aug 2014 06:32

Thanks Ramana garu. I kind of like Rollie Lal. She is far more balanced than sepoys like Tanvi Madan or Dhume

A summary of that book in this video. I like how she owns Eric heginbotham of Rand in this video

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 15 Aug 2014 09:56

Several in correct information on China in the discussion

PRC has not resolved all the boundary issues with its neighbors as claimed with south China sea still open issue. It is a large dispute even compared to India China border issue.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 15 Aug 2014 16:23

China inaugurates new rail link in Tibet, close to Indian border in Sikkim

BEIJING: China on Friday inaugurated its second railway line in Tibet, built at a cost of $2.16 billion, close to Indian border in Sikkim, enhancing mobility of its military in the remote and strategic Himalayan region.

The 253-km railway line links Tibet's provincial capital Lhasa with Xigaze, the second-largest city in Tibet and also the traditional seat of the pro-Beijing Panchen Lama — stated to be second important Monk in Tibetan hierarchy

It reduces the travel time between Lhasa and Xigaze from the current four hours by highway to around two hours, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

It is the second railway line in Tibet and an extension of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, the world's highest rail link connecting China's mainland with Tibet.

Construction of the railway line started in 2010 with an investment of 13.28 billion yuan ($2.16 billion).

In addition to this, China last month unveiled plans to construct a new crucial railway line in Tibet close to Arunachal Pradesh, which Chinese analysts say could act as a "bargaining chip" during the border talks with India.

The construction of another railway line linking Lhasa to Nyingchi in the east is also expected to start soon, recent official media report said.

Nyingchi is located right close to Arunachal, the nearest area to the border. China claims Arunachal as part of Tibet.

The railway expansion will connect, Nepal, Bhutan and India by 2020, the report said.

The construction of a railway connecting Xigaze with Gyirong county, close to Nepal, will be constructed under the five year plan ending 2020, an official recently said.

Gyirong county has a checkpoint connecting Nepal and Yatung county, close to Indian border near Sikkim and Bhutan, a trade centre bordering India and Bhutan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Nov 2014 04:32

X-Post...

ravi_g wrote:

This graph was made in 2013 in a HDI report of whatever. Has 2014 followed the trend.

So once again, how should we Indians carry out our foreign and defence policies?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Nov 2014 04:33

So in just 6 years we are discussing Chindia and its impact on world economy!!!!

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 08 Feb 2015 17:57

Chinese Khulji:
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subc ... 0&cid=1101

Once India begins to design its aircraft carrier with US technology, it will eventually purchase American carrier-based aircraft like the F-35C fighter and E-2D early warning aircraft as well. The combined total of the new carrier and the aircraft could net the US a total of US$10 billion, according to Global Times. After the new craft is completed, Russian assistance will no longer be needed either. With the inking of this deal, Russia's goal to form an Asian security partnership with China and India seems to be a nonstarter.

Rear Admiral Li Jie suggested that India should take longer to consider its purchase of American technologies. He said that the Indian Navy has a tradition of using the Russian style ski-jump flight deck. The sudden change to an angled flight deck and the use of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System would turn all the Indian Navy's accumulated knowledge on carrier operation into nothing, according to Li.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Feb 2015 03:02

ramana wrote:So in just 6 years we are discussing Chindia and its impact on world economy!!!!

Its not only Economical, but the social Cultural effect of this Chindianmesh which will shut many Mushratoullies build for conversiondiet etc. This will be the time when ancient pagan assert themselves holding huge Mace to chase the intruding barking 'dbogs'.