Bharat Rakshak

Indian roads may not run up to the IB in the NE and elsewhere because of a good reason.

If there are no roads, no Army can move beyond the reach of their Artillery. Therefore, the attacker will have to build the road so that the Artillery and the logistics can move up and extend the Army’s (infantry) reach.

The delay caused to the attacker will allow the defender to ‘read the battle’ and poise its forces to defeat the attacker in detail.

That is what is the method in the madness!

Why do you thing Paksitan's operations failed? No logistic build up because there was NO roads!

Moving arrow all over the Map is a great delight, but such arrow movers forget that the 'tail' has to fetch up for the arrow to berserk again!

Nations do not plan their geo-strategic issues on the basis of religious affiiiations!

Geo- strategy is based on national interest.

Pakistan and China are India’s adversaries. If they are cut to size, it will be in India’s interest.

China and Pakistan have maintained an “all-weather” friendship based on their mutual interests in protecting their borders against, and checking the influence of, their rival neighbor India. The concrete nature of their friendship can be seen in the opening in 1982 of the Karakoram Highway, a 500-mile-long divided highway that connects Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region with Islamabad. China’s then-Deputy Premier Li Xiannian publicly stated that the highway “allows us [China] to give military aid to Pakistan.”

China considers Xinjiang indispensable because of its abundant natural resources and strategic location vis-à-vis Central and South Asia. Yet, maintaining and consolidating control over its “wild west” has been a historic and pressing concern for Beijing. Instability in Xinjiang arises from the Uighurs’ sense of spiritual, cultural, and political alienation, as a Muslim people of Turkic origin, from the officially atheist, Han Chinese-dominated People’s Republic of China.

China worried at the increase in the drug trade and influx of Pakistani madrassa trained Uighurs has curtailed the border trade and even closed the KKH for brief periods. Pakistan, under pressure from China, Pakistan closed Uighur settlements in Pakistan like in December 2000, the Pakistani army closed two Uighur community centers called Kashgarabad and Hotanabad that had provided shelter for Uighur immigrants in Pakistan for decades. Pakistan has rrested and deported Uighurs, and even killed Uighur terrorists.

Therefore, evidently all is not that well with China and Pakistan as we may well imagine.

The current Uighur uprising will make China even more suspicious of the Islamic connection with Pakistan since the autocratic regimes of the CAR are themselves anti any activity that can destabilize their rule.

It is therefore time that India covertly assists the Uighurs so that the situation become more untenable for China and then obviously they will be more repressive leading to other Islamic countries too joining Turkey in their condemnation and breaking of trade ties and more so, Oil, which engines China’s industries!

In this connection, it is interesting to note that when China threatened to dump three trillion dollars in US Reserves and convert to Euros and which would have led to the collapse of the US economy, the OPEC countries offered to shore up the US since they would also stand to lose!
http://www.rense.com/general74/report.htm

The Xinjaing Uprising will also be a lead for the Tibetans.

Thus, China will be in turmoil and all the dreams of being a stable and upcoming superpower will be on the hold!

The current uprising in Xingjian hence should not be seen in any religious light and instead should be viewed from the geo-strategic context.

It is now clear that US is using Pakistan and it's relatively easy access to China to foment distability in Xinjiang.

Keeping China occupied is in the interest of the world!

the threat to Uighuristan in 18th century was more from Anglo Russian rivalry than china. Francis Younghusband met his Russian counterpart, a polish colnel in the service of the czar in Yarkand in the late 19th century to size each other up. Even the Dalai Lama had contacts with the Russians through his mongolian advisors.


Enver Pasha, the turkish commander of the basmachi revolt was killed by the communists in present day Tajikistan.

Turkey always had strong ties with the turks in caucasus. The feelings of angst we indians have over losing over lands and people are shared by other peoples and civilizations...the turks are one of the main people who lost from WWI and are waiting to recover their traditional role of leadership of the turkic race. Recall how after the Soviet empire collapsed in the 1990s we saw turkey raising it;s profile in this region as far east as afghanistan. The Uzbek strongman Rashid Dostam availed of turkish hospitality when he had to flee Aghanistan from the Taliban.

Imam Shamyl, the legendary 19th century Chechen commadar (Ref; Sabres of paradise) left Russia after surrendar to live as a guest of the sultan. The Jordan king's bodyguards have traditonally been from caucasus and central asia. those ties of kinship, although weakened have not disappeared altogther. We also need to get rid of the post WWI mindset where artificial boundaries were drawn over lands where people have been mingling freely for centuries.


If Uighurs came under PRC rule in 1949, it is due to mutual understanding between Stalin and Mao. I remember reading somewhere that Uighur leaders in a joint Soviet PRC operations were persuaded to visit Mao in Peking. The plane carrying them mysteriously crashed in Soviet territory. They were conveniently replaced by rubber stamps who voluntarily agrred to accept PrC over Xinjiang.

Again, lest we get our hopes up in a orgasmic spasm...notice the Russian silence over the PRC police action speaks volumes.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/188284/Chin ... -past.html

The entrance of Turkey in the equation changes the complexion of the Uyghur revolt. Up till now, the Chinese were portraying the disturbance as the work of terrorists, of ETIM, an affiliate of Al Qaida, etc. But with Turkey coming out strongly in defense of the Uyghurs, repackages it as an ethnic question and less as an Islamic question.

Should the East Turkestan question really achieve a higher profile, and that too due to the Turkish involvement, which is a secular state, then the SCO could become defunct. Shanghai Cooperation Organization is based on China aligning with Russia to secure exclusive and shared rights to the vast Central Asian region. India plays no role and has no leverage there.

The Central Asian Republics like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan feel the pull of the strongest and most advanced of the Turkic nations, Turkey. The pull is multi-dimensional cultural, linguistic, historical, and religious. In the aftermath of the demise of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian Republics had the need to redefine their identities. They invariably chose the secular Turkish model and called themselves Turkic. None of the strongmen in post Soviet Union Central Asia went for the Islamic identity first and foremost (unlike Pakistan).

After having hinged their identities to the secular Turkic, it is understandable that the views of Turkey in this conflict will be closely watched. There is definitely a chance that these Republics may get pulled in by Turkey out of the embrace of the Bear and the Dragon, and out of the clutches of the SCO club. In fact if USA would want to extend their reach into Central Asia, they would prefer the Turkish route.

The fact that Russia has offered USA a Russian supply route, means that Russia is not that averse to American presence in the region. That also means, that Russia may keep SCO for the time being as a talking shop, but may have changed its views on Chinese encroachment into its former near abroad. The Russians now probably think, that American interest in Central Asia can be harnessed to strengthen Russian presence in the region, if USA avails of Russian transit route, and becomes dependent on it. In a way, this is to hedge against the increasing Chinese outreach into the region as well. NATO-Russia relations have also improved considerably since the Georgia crisis, and Russia feels less threatened. All this weakens SCO as well.

With active Turkish political involvement and Russian cooperation in logistical support, America can well remain in the region for some time longer and SCO can stay weak and would not become a challenger to NATO.

If Japan is strategically the containment wall on the East of PRC, then Turkey could well become the containment wall on the West of PRC. Just as India has increased the level of strategic cooperation with Japan, so too must India increase strategic cooperation with the NATO member Turkey.

All this also plays into India's efforts to convince the world, that Pakistan is a lost cause, both in the Ummah and the West. With Russian cooperation and Turkish courage in Central Asia, USA and Europe would need Pakistan ever less as the gateway into Central Asia, though the pressure on the Taliban would remain or be strengthened even, and Pakistan would stay on a short leash. It is in India's interest that Pakistan has fewer friends as possible. Bringing Turkey into India's strategic circle, along with Iran, would certainly be a slap in Pakistan's face. The fact that Pakistan has been helping Beijing to apprehend rebellious Uyghurs would not be appreciated in Ankara.

IMHO, Turkey is in the long run just as important to India as Japan. In fact India's strategic containment or rather hedging or counter-hedging should be based on strategic cooperation with

Turkey, Japan and Vietnam primarily, and Indonesia and Thailand secondarily.

what has been russian reaction to these incidents, if any ?

N^3

First of all the facade of China full of modern cities and well-fed, well clothed people, is just that, a facade. Travel 50 miles from the cities, and not much has changed in rural China. I am not sure how the images of policemen, standing in a line while Han mobs express their anger is anything positive. Thousands of Uighur have been arrested; only time will tell how many return home. The annual execution rate in PRC is supposed to be in excess of 10K so another 1-2K of Uighurs will be a small bump.

On the economic front: The Chinese state has continued to invest heavily in infrastructure. Chinese banks lend where others would not. In the past the break-neck speed of growth meant that much of this over investment did not have to sit idle to a point where it became a bad loan. Going forward that breakneck model of investment may not work simply because the Western consumer has less to spend and the Western politician may finally be forced to save local jobs. and roll back some of Walmart led destruction of the manufacturing base. There is speculation that asset and wage deflation coupled with higher commodity prices (weaker USD), will simply make increasingly larger percentage of Chinese exports too expensive to transport across the Pacific, leading to greater local production.

Chinese banks issued more loans in the first four months of 2009 than they did in entire 2008. The due-diligence which went into those loans is anyone's guess. This has created a massive short term bubble with Chinese auto sales now set to surpass US auto sales, Chinese equity markets ripping to new highs and so on. However, unless the average Chinese who until now was a resolute saver, overnight decides that it is now the time to spend like a drunk because millions of factory workers are losing their job, the fundamental imbalance between domestic and foreign consumption will not disappear.

In all the noise about China, it is easy to forget that the Chinese Yuan does not even float freely; it is still tied to the USD. The INR has more fluctuations than the Yuan. The Chinese do not have the confidence yet to let their currency float; so much for being the next reserve currency of the world.

Coming back to the topic at hand, what India needs to do is:
(1) Recognize that the China too has enough internal schisms which have to be exploited to deter Chinese imperialism. There should be nothing vocal, no chest beating; just some tit-for-tat perspective to the entire India-China relationship.
(2) Refocus the Tibet policy to give some breathing room to the more aggressive Tibetan perspective, and not hitch everything behind the Dalai Lama's methods. More important, India needs to aggressively develop ground level assets inside the Tibet-SAR who have the ability to disrupt the PLA war-machine if it gets itchy.
(3) Provide background assistance to the Uighur. The wider the schism between the Islamists and the CCP, the safer Indic civilization will be. If AmirKhan is facilitating the Uighur, facilitate AmirKhan. AmirKhan's fascination with Islamists runs too deep to end in a generation; at least redirect it to a more worthy cause instead of being at the receiving end of the stick all the time.
(4) Of course all this is all talk, unless India makes sure that India's defense spending matches China when it comes to the percentage of the GDP. As long as India matches China, the Indian deterrent will be credible.
(5) Strategic programs need to be put on a fast-track to remove any doubts about the basic capability. If there is any back-tracking of the commitments made in the Nuclear deal and the NSG waiver (re: G8 meeting), seriously consider that as an opportunity to test if the scientific community so feels.

We are at a point in the world, where everyone is wary of China's rise. This includes new found friends like the Aussies or the always concerned SE Asians, the former imperial Japan & the UK, the demographically challenged Russians, and of course AmirKhan with the stream of Cyber attack and what not.

The Chinese are becoming too aggressive for their own good. The time is ripe for India to use this confluence of world concern, and strengthen its stand vis a vis China in a real tangible manner. The focus should be on things that really matter; i.e. the ground situation, and not the UNSC and other assorted impotent intellectual clubs.

Learn from Mao and Sun Tzu if needed.

What ?? Pakis doing India's bidding in Maoland.

>>In a sense, the soft power of India had triumphed over the hard power of the Chinese state. May it always do so.

Nice happy feel line... but we need to keep things real. A few hundreds, or thousands, or hundreds of thousands of our movies/music in Xinjiang does not mean "triumph" in any sense. It means we have a presence in their mindspace, for whatever itis worth. May be useful later (as it has been in Afghanistan where we are certainly far more present). Maybe not.

Turkey's involvement is not an accident. The hand of Unkil is around here. East Turkestan, together with West Turkestan (the newly independant turkic nations of central asia) are and always have been, a buffer between muscovy, the middle kingdom and the persian empire. they also sit on huge gas reserves, and various pipelines are being planned east/west and south. india is also a potential beneficiary of such a pipeline.

a lot of people have an interest in the middle kingdom (which under the ming hunted down and exterminated the wild tribes of turkestan much like the US cavalry did in the Western states) being unbalanced here.

the wild card is the extent to which freedom lovin' ooighurs are attracted by the wahabbi forces to their south, or can a new moderate islamic model of freedom be crafted in central asia with turkish backing? like the eye-rack experiment, but further north...

risk and reward as always

Pakistan's population of 180 million and rising with no economic model to look after it, a voracious and cannibalistic feudal and Army establishment, rising extremism coupled with a total breakdown of governance and order in the next 5 years means USA loses its beachhead into Central Asia. It would cease to be of use to PRC either, as any free travel between PRC and Pakistan will become the exclusive realm of Islamists to and from East Turkestan.

Turkey will have to become West's great transit route into the heart of Asia. This makes Turkey vital to USA's concerns in Asia. No wonder Barack Obama went to Ankara to strengthen relations. If it was only a Muslim thing, then one can understand Egypt, but Obama went to Ankara first. Because Ankara will soon become the hub of next wave of Western diplomacy.

West would need other corridors too.

India would have the right international situation to move into Northern Areas and beyond within the next 6-7 years. Hopefully we would be ready.

Wonderful feeling - 2 b arguing on the side of the Great Peopre's Lepubric against the Lunning Dogs of Capitaristic Imperliarism.

Vikram: For the same reasons that you cite, (i.e., away from the cities, nothing much seems to have changed in China) the Party controls the shots - only THEIR route leads to prosperity. Reading the LATimes account of the young man getting off the train, he was attracted by rumored huge wages offered to (Han, presumably) skilled workers in Xinjiang. Probably, these wages have shot up, because they must now include some form of risk pay. The rumors are that if you wander into an alley ... finis. ("the weegers have the look of wolves in their eyes"). I bet a posting on the western border of Xinjiang is not a plum posting for a PLA military officer or bureaucrat - unless there is some big baksheesh possibility.

So the CCP is holding the carrot of incredible wealth and prosperity to the masses. If one is growing up in rural Xinjiang, yes, contraband Hindi movies are probably the ultimate in "modern high-life jet-set entertainment". I bet the Pakis advertise the movies as representing LaHore and Karachi, not yindoostan. So the young will aspire to the riches that only the CCP can deliver. No wonder the Party bans under-18s from going into Mosques. They are smart enough to do what Britain, US and India should have done long ago.

One more generation - around 25 years there - and the CCP will have erased all this "Weegger culture" stuff except from the curio shops. I don't see that anything is going to stop them.

The Turkey noise is a revelation to me. Sure, I had seen the name "Turkestan" but I thought it was a case of Turkey adopting some Central Asian name rather than that of Turkish armies coming this far East. Which way is the real history on that? Sounds like it has always been a case of Central Asians running off TO Turkey, not the other way round. Did Ottoman armies come all this way across Central Asia? The terrain and climate are incredibly harsh, and I can't see someone sitting in Constantinople and saying: "If there is a Houristan in the Duniya, it must be Kashghar!" Imagine trying to justify the budget for that invasion force!

As for the sentiment that "if it hurts PRC, we must rush in to participate!" .... I hope there is better thinking than that in Dilli.

RayC: A small problem in my mind about this argument that India leaves the outer 20 miles of border areas devoid of infrastructure in order to delay the invaders. Well.. in that case India should have absolutely no concern about China building roads and rail close to their side of the border, hey? Indian Generals must be rubbing their hands in glee, saying:


So they must be building this infrastructure because they consider that land to be theirs, and they want to get on with their lives and build what the people there need. India on the other hand, appears to consider regions 20 miles from the borders to be "military exclusion zones" or "no-man's land"? This appears to be a horrible disconnect.

Also, it means that a single 2-mile-long train can arrive from Beijing, and unload an armored battalion at any point along the border, ready to roll across into India, and inside an hour they will be 20 miles inside before Indian Top Brass even wake up. The conflict will then start with India backed 20 miles in at the start, the first line defenders caught in pincers and surrendered, and the minimal infrastructure 20 miles inside, facing Chinese tanks. I don't see how this constitutes good strategy.. but anyway, this is OT for this thread, sorry. Maybe I should spend some time at the MIL Forum understanding these fine points, sorry.

From the Onry Leriabre Soulce:Note date



Hello! And Turkey is about to launch anti-PRC operations?

Spoke too soon about lack of Indian connection to Central Asia/ FSU: got this in the email today.

Narayan-saar

modern turks came from central asia and are today living in the occupied greek lands of the byzantium empire. the ottomans are the final incarnation of the wild nomadic tribes of the steppes to have headed west, and they held steady as a powerful empire whilst the mongol empire crumbled further east and therefore took over the mantle of turkic civilisation. the inbetween part is muddled - but in broad terms, Genghiz and then his sons and grandsons conquered and then melded the turcoman and mongol tribes of the steppes into heart of the great 'mongol' empire. eventually the turkic language overtakes that of the mongols, particularly when they split into russian, chinese, iranian and turkic factions.

timur though claiming descent from genghiz, was a turcoman. the mughals of india are predominantly turkic in origin being of the line of timur, although there were many mongolians passing through over the ages. many of whom fought for rajputs against turks before the mughal times. timur invades the seljuk turks and wreaks havoc, one of the early ottoman sultans (i forget which) gets his musharraff kicked badly. but post timur, they regroup and finally take byzantium and go on to form modern turkey.

there are strong ethnic, linguistic and relgious ties between modern turkey and the central asian republics of turkic race, even though they may appear more mongoloid than the turks per se.

Thanks, Professar Here is the beat-all explanatory map on the "Tur" family.

These people seemed to grasp that the Duniya is round, and centered in Kasghar - or is the center Mecca as it properly should be? Sorry I am illiterate.

So the situation is clearly as I thought - it is that TURKEY is legitimately a part of China, just as the "Hun" of Germany were really "Han". And it was the Oiropeans who colonized Australia and America. Therefore, CHINA OWNS THE WORLD!



Q.E.D.

IOW, China has more claim on Germany, Italy, England and Turkey, than Turkey has claims on any part or people or culture of China.

BTW, there is the prediction of Nostradamus that circa 1990 China would invade and reclaim Oirope and bring civilization to the barbarians there again. A bit late, but things seem to be heading that way all right. A few years ago I had to go shopping in Valencia, Spain for a shirt because the *&^% airline had eaten my baggage (an entire International Space Conference full of Top-Level Officials all in t-shirts and jeans because everyone had lost their baggage) and the "Made in China" label was clearly prevalent there already.

I am not sure China has been explicitly mentioned in the "Our Lady" predictions. These are all interpretations. He probably mentions only about a "dark man" crossing the Alps and using his "chastizing rod". This has been interpreted as generally someone coming with forces from outside Europe and invading it. "dark" has been assigned to ME, Central Asians, Chinese, and even Indians. The timing is also around 2000. It is at least 10 years late and counting.

Came in the email. No comment.

This is a great opportunity for the western world led by “the messiah” from unkilland. Can't have a better ambassador who can play the field in both the camps. Recall the recent apologizes to the muslims by the pope and stressing on the need to reduce skimrishes with them. The need of the hour is to prop up the battered image among muslims of the western world. The gap needs to be bridged and hence what better way than to use a bunch of loonies in xingiang land.

The tete a tete between the pope and western leaders needs to be closely followed to obtain general strategic directions the western world takes.
India needs to roll out its standard boiler plate response urging peaceful restraint on all sides. Beyond that it may order popcorn, just in case the entertainment gets too much to pass by. Sukhvinder bhadrachalam Mishra needs to pick his battles, and choose where not to throw his hat in the ring, atleast openly.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/weeki ... ml?_r=1&hp

Xinjiang's conflicting past.... leading up to the present turmoil...

The ‘disturbances’ in Xinjiang may be more than the usual hit and run affairs. The fact that Hu Jintao scooted back to China, indicates that it may be an Uprising of a worse order than the Tibetan rebellion pre Olympics.

Unlike the pacifist Buddhists, Moslems are no push over as the world has realized to its grief!

Turkey has its historical links with the Uighurs, but the Islam cannot quote stand still if further repression is carried out and that is the Catch 22 China is facing. Oil, after all is China’s lifeline and oil is controlled by the Muslims!! Turkey, by itself, is not material to China.

The Shanghai Five or the SCO is not a China – Russia alliance. It is more of an alliance to counter the US influence that crept up through the erstwhile Soviet Republics via the Rainbow revolution. India has a role to play since it has to ensure a pincer to the Pakistani ambitions and equations. As Pakistan requires China as the surrogate mother to protect her from India, India too has to encircle Pakistan and nudge into China by befriending the CAR and thus via Afghanistan. To that end, the Chabahar port of Iran is a chess piece in the whole game! Or else why spend money in Iran?

The CAR countries are autocratic and personality based. They are very sensitive to any issues that can rock their countries. That is why they have, in a repressive manner, subdued all dissensions and movements including those of the Uighurs. They are not secular. They are merely personality based regimes, ensuring their own survival! Their sole support is from the Russians and none else.

The Russians have given a supply route to the USA for the simple reason that they do not want Islamic influence to upset the regime from the South or in Chechnya. Sooner the fundamentalists are defeated, the better is it for Russia. They want the US to do the dirty work and be whistle clean!

It is also in the interest of Russia to pit China against the US. The US encirclement of China is an old hat and with Afghanistan in the US hands, it will keep China’s ambitions in check!

US does not require Pakistan in her scheme of things, except that it is the only land route into Afghanistan. One cannot sustain a war through air supply. Pakistan can cry itself hoarse that Baluchistan rebellion is the R&AW’s handiwork, it possibly is the CIA’s tricks which wanted to box Iran on either side as also open up the oil supply to Gwadar from the CAR oilfields. The old hands of US oil companies like Karzai and the US Ambassador Khalizad would not have been appointed otherwise. Even today, Karzai survives notwithstanding reports of massive corruption!

Pakistan is a lost cause even to China. The only route for indoctrinate Muslims to Xinjiang is Pakistan. The other Muslim countries are themselves worried of any movement, Islamic or otherwise. Hence, China is not amused. They have stopped trade many a time and blocked the KKH. Pakistan, under pressure, has not only closed Uighur townships in Pakistan, but has also deported the Uighurs to China and even killed so called Uighur terrorists! Therefore, if the situation gets worse, Pakistan is no friend of China!

RayC, the fact that the "FakAp" policy is putting American boots on the ground all over Afghanistan for the long term, had not hit me until I read your post. This is a very substantial change. It implies that the path from Iran to CAR and Xinjiang is in American hands. If the "impossible" happens and Afghanistan is finally tamed as an American proxy, doesn't Pakistan lose 90% of its significance to US interests? (The remaining 10% being to irritate India).

What is the geography - does Afghanistan have direct access to (a) Xinjiang and (b) the KKH/ Silk Road?

Cow worshippers! Thats us. Even the evanjihadi's and Pakis and Chinese on different forums say so. We're the original folks in Xinjiang. WHere's VHP? This is now certainly disputed territory !! Uighurs out, Chinese out, ban beef! VHP in!

N^3

Your arguments follow the line that the CCP is like a borg, and within a generation will finish off any cultural and religious sentiments which might challenge the Chinese empire. I agree with you in that is the goal of the CCP.

What I do not see you articulating is how India should react to the CCP's stated objective of stretching its cultural borders to where its political borders currently lie.

On one hand you lament the lack of preparation on the Indian side. OTOH you seem to suggest that India should behave herself. Is it because you feel that this is not a battle India can win; or do you feel that its not worth it in terms of the risk reward calculations?

IMHO, the Indian objective should be to ensure that Indic civilization shares its rightful space and enjoys its sphere of influence in Asia, without becoming a slave to the CCP ruled China.

Over the past half a century, the CCP has tried every dirty trick in the book to encircle India, undermine India's fledgling democracy, and provide India's enemies with tools which can result in an existential threat to Indic civilization. Indian response has been to not prick the lizard and be deferential in the hope that the attention of the lizard does not focus on India.

This kind of head in the sand behavior will not solve the fundamental threat which Indic civilization faces from the CCP ruled China. As a result India has to confront the CCP sooner or later.

Until now it has been the CCP which has been choosing where the battles will be fought and India has been playing defense. The Indian pussilanitmity seems to have emboldened the Chinese hawks even further. Their reaction to India strengthening the defenses of the North East frankly came as a big shock to me. But there was also a positive, that there are elements in PLA/China which seem to be drunk on their medicine.

For some reason the Chinese believe that the Western reliance on their cheap goods and the surplus of dollars they hoard makes them indespinsible to the rest of the world. What they forget is that the rest of the world was doing fine without the cheap Chinese goods, two decades ago. It is the Chinese who needed the rest of the world to drive its economic progress.

The Western capitalist model is based on stability where there are no big swings. This is why most people feel that the West can not cut off China without suffering unacceptable consequences. What they forget is that over the past year that balance has already been disturbed. The West has already tolerated multiple shocks to the system; the threshold of their pain tolerance has gone up. I believe that the West will desperately try to cut back on its dependence on cheap Chinese exports going forward. It might come in the form of cap-and-trade, or some other environment tax; it might be in the form of more dumping duties. But with unemployment U3 reaching 10% and U6 reaching 20% the West has reached the tipping point where the era of the past two decades will come to an end.

The Chinese do realize this and are trying their best to increase domestic consumption. However, this is going to be a painful period of transition for them. It provides India with a once in a generation opportunity to expand her sphere of influence and undo some of the damage of the past 50 years.

The immediate Indian objective should not be restructure the political map of the PRC. The objective should be to create enough distractions that the borg like march is slowed down. And India does not have to do much except:

(1) Strengthen her defenses to ensure that any PLA action, results in a bloody nose. Nothing will harm the lizards H&D more than a live via satellite broadcast of a few thousand PLA held as POW in a stadium in Kolkata.

(2) Establish more assets in Tibetan SAR which gives the Indian military planners the option to disrupt the PLA behind their lines. Note that the Tibetan struggle is likely to become less passive going forward, as the Dalai Lama passes on. Some one or the other will co-opt their cause; India will any way carry most of the blame in the eyes of the PLA/CCP. At least let something good come out of the bad name you earn.

(3) Provide moral and diplomatic support to AmirKhan and even the Russians in their efforts to limit the middle Kingdom to the middle only. The Russians may be silent but they fear a Han invasion of Siberia. China is a slow existentialist threat to Russia; a threat they can not nuke or MAD away.

In summary, CCP ruled China needs to be contained by buffer states since their borg like attitude poses an existantialist threat to other neighboring powers. Tibet and East Turkistan were two such buffer states which were allowed to become a part of the PRC's political sphere thanks to the PLAs willingness to sacrifice millions. Unless India starts chipping away at the Chinese control of these buffer states, these states will be assimilated demographically and culturally into the PRC, putting the Indian heartland under the direct threat of the CCP war machine. Regardless of all the peans which will be written to honor Indian democracy, it is finally the responsibility of the Indian people to resist the borg. The current turmoil in the world provides an opportunity which India should study carefully and react to in a proactive manner.

That is absolutely consistent, because what I am saying is that there is nothing here for India to rush in and bray about, and India is NOT by any stretch of the imagination, prepared to counter Chinese moves against India in the NE, NW, SE (Naval bases in Myanmar) or in the UN/G8 (nuclear arena). The India-China military equation today is far worse than it was in 1962, but slightly better perhaps than in 1971 when the West was hostile to India (but the SU was there to counter China on the other side). India does not have the manufacturing depth, breadth or quality to even make her own artillery shells, mass-produce front-line fighter planes, mass-produce missiles, or tanks, or good combat equipment for her soldiers to survive, much less fight, in hostile terrain and climate. If there is a clash, it will be a rout. China may get a "bloody nose" but India may not have arms or legs left, much less a nose. Once the 40 Su-30MKIs are down, what is left that has any chance of outfighting the PLA/PLAF/PLN, and in large enough numbers to make any difference In 1940, Germany's combat technology and systems were far superior to those of the US. But the US had idle manufacturing capacity, a lot of unemployed people, and immense resource depth, and you know the rest of the story. What magic will operate differently in India's case?

So Bharat Verma has a point. The current economic downturn may indeed give India an edge in going ahead, but India has a long and hard road ahead, and no tradition of having governments that drive focused, monotonic forward progress for a decade. But the Chinese may indeed decide that the next 3 years pose a great window of opportunity.

They don't really need an excuse, but India sticking her nose in this current mess, would indeed constitute a nice, made-2-order excuse. On the People's Daily page from which I cited an article above, there were some "interesting" discussion forums. The Most Commented Article was one titled: "INDIA'S UNWISE MILITARY MOVES", which seems to be a "trial balloon" to start the war hysteria against India if and when the Party decides it is time. It would be good to monitor that.

The Xinjiang "unrest" is largely manufactured or overblown, and in either case will be ruthlessly stomped out. And I am saying that in its present form, the right answer is that it SHOULD be stomped out.

The second part is that yes, I feel that nothing in current circumstances contains the seeds of collapse of the Commie "borg". Tibet is a clear Freedom issue, but Xinjiang is not - at least not from Indian pov.

So what should be done to counter the "borg"?
1. Get away from the "Hate China - We are Great Warriors" mentality. China is here to stay. Will continue to be in India's neighborhood. With 1.3 billion people, it MUST become a prosperous and happy nation if possible, for the security of the world.
2. India must adopt a total no-nonsense development and reinforcement of defenses along the entire north-northeast-northwest, using demographics management if that is the way to do it. End the "Kashmir problem" through elections - in an increasingly pro-India Kashmir, enough said.
3. These excuses for not having infrastructure must be tossed out, and these states must be TOTALLY integrated into India, not left out there as Tourist Paradises, ripe for the picking by Western Conversionists, Separatist organizations, Pakis or Commies. Pour concrete there big time- the parking garages will come in handy as pill-boxes and tank-traps and helicopter landing pads, should a war erupt, and they can serve to park large numbers of tanks and tracked vehicles to move swiftly.
Do these things in a SERIOUS manner, not the asinine way in which most Indian defense preparedness is done until it is too too late and only the lonely jawan with the jamming INSAS or .303 and the canvas sneakers and raincoat in sub-zero weather, is left between national annihilation and survival.
4. MOVE FAST on mass-producing the LCA (how come the Pakis have an operating production line for the JF-17 Bandaar and we are still at 4 prototypes of the LCA? A lot of high-level Babu-asses need kicking, big-time, on this). Kick ass to get the engines developed, produced, tested and into mass production.
5. Buy those 126 front-line strike aircraft and get them in service. With clear local-production and technology transfer agreements. Then get the reverse-engineering/copying business going, seriously.
5. MOVE FAST on mass-producing Brahmos, Prithvi and Agni-3.
6. Cut the baksheesh-bound excuses, drag in the directors of the various arms production facilities, and give them the resources and the motivation (as in firing squad) to meet ambitious production/fielding schedules for combat equipment, rifles, ammunition, boots, personal armor, survival kits, medical equipment.... as if the war is going to be tomorrow - it may very well be.
7. Start massive Emergency Response programs all over India, citing the imminent terrorist (nuke) threat.
8. Establish 3 more shipyards and MOVE on mass-producing a fleet of missile frigates.

9. Most important of all, re-introduce basic, mandatory "NCC" or "Student Medical Corps" or other field-training programs starting from the 8th grade on up, and put some strength into the flabby spines of a massively spoilt generation of young Indians, to understand some of the challenges that India faces, and why they have to do their share. The prospect of the Chinese Borg marching through their neighborhoods should be a good motivator.

And until these things are producing results, adopt the famous 3-Monkeys as companions to the Sarnath Lions.

Xinjiang is interesting as a place to visit, but India has no other business there. Tibet, now that's different. But how about showing some of this vaunted Indian might in bringing Freedom and Democracy (not Marxist dictatorship) to Nepal for starters?

It is perceived that China-Tibet (Qinghai–Tibet railway) rail link has a structural weakness because it was constructed on permafrost (In geological terms, a soil at or below the freezing point of water (0 °C or 32 °F) for two or more years. Building on permafrost is difficult due to the heat of the building (or pipeline) melting the permafrost and sinking.). Essentially, the connection between mainland and tibet is on a weak link. Any increase in temperature in the region where this rail link goes through will lead to sinking of the rail road. I think a bomb or two will take care of this link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qingzang_railway
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost

The Uyghurs have less children than the Hans and adding to their eventual extinction is the massive Han migration mostly encouraged by the CCP. Every year the ratio of Uyghurs to Chinese is getting smaller and smaller. China is winning this conflict and there no way come hell or high water that this is going to stop. Sometime in the future the Uyghurs will be gone either through demographic decline, Chinese repression or absorbtion and the oil rich FSU states around China will be happily building oil pipelines to China's industrial belts without a wink. Muslim solidarity or Turkic solidarity be damned.
Nearly one hundred thousand Tamils were bombed to smitherens by Pakistani pilots flying SL planes and not a whimper came out of India.....what is this sympathy for Uyghurs?
Avram

N^3

What you are referring to is a full-scale war between India and China. Though not impossible, I find the chance of that happening highly improbable. The entire world has an eye on China and any serious misadventure from there side is likely to result in a significant world wide response. Further for all practical purposes, India is a nuclear power and any conflict has to take that into account. The Chinese will be extremely reluctant to cross Indian thresholds since the cost to them is also going to be tremendous even if they succeed in wiping out Indian cities from the map. On a demographic level, the only country which can compete with them in a nuclear war is India, and the Chinese know that.

What might happen is another version of the border war. Hopefully unlike the past, this time the Indian establishment will meet the aggression head on, and respond with full force in the limited theater of engagement. India is somewhat lucky that the geography of the region prevents the PLA from exerting its full force. Further the PLA will be operating thousands of miles from its cultural heartland, in an area which can not be secured fully.

I do agree with all that you said when it comes to Indian defense preparedness. At a national level, most Indians are blissfully unaware of the strategic and military challenges which India faces. Even events like Kargil or Mumbai, are unable to create any persistence in public awareness. Contrast that with Chinese; every Chinese I have met can repeat the why Tibet is a part of China spiel verbatim. The national consciousness of the average Chinese is at an order of magnitude higher than the average Indian. I hope articles like those by Bharat Verma which highlight the internal Chinese compulsions which might drive the PLA on a misadventure get their due airtime. It would be great if more informed journos like Vishnu work to give some airtime to these issues, so that they start sinking into the national psyche.

Very good post n³!

We need a lot more articles like Bharat Verma, which scare the shit out of all Indians, and when the shit is all out, helps make our blood boil and we become serious about India's defense.

Like most here, I too believe that it is of utmost importance that we get a window of uninterrupted growth. I would say, if we can have say some 15-20 years, India should be unstoppable.

So while the 'Muslims' purportedly usually do Taqqiyya until they grow to a majority, similarly India too should do some Taqqiyya to PRC until we develop into an economic hunk.

Considering that I will soon be papa, I'll like to offer an analogy from pre-natal fetal development. It takes a baby around 18-20 weeks to develop all its vital organs and after that it only has to grow like crazy from around 330 grams to around 10 times that weight. So has India developed most of its vital organs of state during the first 60 years. After this we only have to grow as fast as we can, of course, without over-heating.

We need to grow, get our infrastructure up and running, and crush all these ULFA, NSCN, Naxalbandi, Khalistanis movements. Until we are strong enough, we need to have a credible deterrent and some sweet talk.

That however does not mean, India should not assess the implications of a turbulent Xinjiang and make use of the opportunities that arise to forge better relations with the important players in Central Asia, in this case Turkey and Iran. China often rides piggy bank on its proxy Pakistan w.r.t. Islamic groups active in the region. India too needs a group of Muslim countries in partnership with whom, India can multiply its presence in and expand its access into Central Asia.

This is by no means to be misinterpreted as being overtly hostile to PRC at all, as is sometimes being interpreted here on this thread, and is not to be seen purely in black and white. India's penetration into Central Asia is minimal still, and needs to be changed. The Xinjiang disturbances possibly offers a way to increase our footprint, and we should use the opportunity should it arise.

Most importantly, China's proxy Pakistan needs to fall, the sooner the better.

Sorry, Vikram, I hope NO ONE in the Indian establishment goes along this adventurist line. It is like watching the crazy Soviet General at the beginning of one of the James Bond movies, screeching that


The basis for this expectation of a swift "limited" border skirmish is presumably the official (Indian side) report of the pleasantries in Nathu La circa 1969 or 5 (I forget which), where a large number of Chinese troops are supposed to have died in a misadventure, thereby "learning a lesson".

Forget it. Today's PRC leadership are not the fickle, insecure desperadoes of the Cultural Revolution, trying to keep the lid on a starving population surviving on subsistence agriculture and Communist collectives. Their soldiers are not the ones we read about in 1960s-70s India - starving little people in bulky, ill-fitting Mao jackets, each carrying a little sack of rice, another of grenades and a Burb Gun with two clips, and an ill-fitting cap with a big red star on it.

The American Armed forces bragged about "mowing down" the Chinese in their Human Wave tactics.... and claimed that at infamous Reservoir in Korea, "we had to walk on a solid carpet of dead Chinese, 300,000 died there". The Chinese historians' response to this is:


The Indian Army OTOH came with this Sanhurst What-What Officer Corps and veterans of El Alamein etc., familiar with the British and American and later, Soviet weapons that were handed down, versus the Chinese' mass-produced rip-offs of second-hand, ancient versions.

Today all these advantages are gone. I believe the each Chinese soldier is now trained and equipped to the same level as his American, Russian or Indian counterpart. There is no reason not to - the PLA is a massively wealthy organization that runs its own monster military industrial complex. They have enjoyed peace and exploding prosperity since the end of the Vietnam misadventure.

So, a conflict with China will only be "limited" if India bows down and China decides to stop. There is no other possible outcome at this time, sorry.

On Day 1, the IAF may dominate - I have great faith in those 30 or 60 Su-30MKIs and those MiG21s (have they been replaced yet?). But by Day 3, the immense Chinese preponderance in missiles will have degraded IAF's ability to operate, and the entire frontline forces may be decimated. At that point, the Chinese preponderance in logistics will start to tell, and the only possible outcome is a massive defeat, making 1962 look like a great victory for India.

India has never fought a war where more than 4000 died in a month. Yes, Kashmir and Northeast "law enforcement" has killed more people, but over many years, not on the intense scale of a war with an equal or superior enemy. China has lost more men than that in a day, several times against several enemies.

If conflict breaks out, India should EXPECT that all first-line defensive positions, all first-line equipment, and weapons, will be wiped out before inflicting any losses on the opposition. Can India still win AFTER that? Despite a missile bombardment of every North Indian city at the very least? Despite 300,000 dead and 30 million wounded? If the logistics and the depth of weapon stores and strike corps is capable of replacing all the losses of combat personnel and equipment and strike back on top of that within a week, then yes, go on adventurist "teach lesson" type of operations. Otherwise, concentrate on seeing how to do this, and keep quiet.

This is why it is so dangerous to ignore the Chinese activities in Arunachal etc. A determined inch-for inch matchup will convince the Chinese to go bother someone else, but the rather lazy (I mean on the part of the govt, not the soldiers) policy of sitting back and doing essentially nothing while the Chinese prepare systematically, is criminally stupid.

And on top of that, if the Babus want to go shoot off their mouths on Xinjiang or whatever, that's just

As an aside, many current BRFees were born after the Falklands War, or were in diapers at the time. All should study what happened when the Argentines, well-armed with the latest IMPORTED weapons, and ONE operational aircraft carrier and one submarine escorting it, went to war with the far-off, declining, weak, British, who had NO real aircraft carrier, and were located 5000 miles away.

The point is that the Argentines lost all their "unbeatable" paper advantages before the British even got started. They had been "magnanimous", capturing rather than killing the 80 British Marines guarding the Falklands in a massive sea-borne invasion. Fait accompli, they thought.

The submarine disappeared first, Then the Cinquieme de Mayo was torpedoed by the British submarine shadowing it, and suddenly the Argentines had nothing to patrol the sea lanes. They still had those long-range airplanes carrying those Exocet missiles. But each day, a few would not come back, and over a month, this resulted in the Argentine Air Force being reduced to a few propeller-driven airplanes.

The rest is out there - please go read it, before planning to go to war with large, determined enemies based on the paper "power" of a small, limited number of imported toys. Their soldiers, sailors and airmen were brave and heroic, but that is no help at all in a modern war.

N^3

The scenario you are printing seems to indicate that the PLA has amassed immense fire power close to India, while Indian armed forces do not have anything to take those positions. I am not sure how true that is. The Indian borders are much closer to the Indian mainland than Chinese borders. That would suggest that the Indian forces should be in a better situation from the logistics and interdiction point of view if they are fighting a defensive war.

I am also not sure how missiles can knock out Indian forces. Unless they are precision guided like cruise, a 1 tonne warhead on a ballistic missile is half the payload of a simple bomb truck like a Mig 23. Sure it packs in a lot of kinetic energy but unless it hits close to the intended target, it is just a random shot. Things would be different if it is launched against industries (like refineries) but their effectiveness is suspect against air fields.

Another aspect is that it is not Indians who will be going along the adventurist line; all signs suggest that it is the Chinese who might want to engage in a teach a lesson war.

When it comes to war and casualties, I disagree with you. The China of today is very different from the China prior to the Cultural revolution. The PLA has not fought a proper war in almost three decades now; even further back if you ignore the Sino-Vietnam conflict. With a one child policy, any war casualties are also going to hit home hard. I do not underestimate the PLAs ability to rally the masses to make the sacrifices; it is just going to be different this time.

What I have been advocating is an inch for inch battle against any PLA misadventure. To execute that, some action behind the enemy lines is a major plus, simply because their lines are stretched from their heartland, the rail/road connection are ripe for the picking.

BTW, your Falkland analogy should be exactly the reverse. The Argentine had only FIVE air-launched Exocets, and a few planes to deliver them. They had to operate from the mainland and at the extreme end of their range. Their Aircraft Carrier was essentially a non-entity after the General Belgrano was sunk. In this case, the PLAN will be operating at the extreme end of its capability while the IN and IAF will not. If the battle stretches, the Indian forces could severely disrupt Chinese shipping in the IOR region, simply using air-power to deny the sea-lanes; no need for the IN to do much.

In any case, India needs to pay back the CCP in the same coin. The CCP respects power. It is time India asserted where it drew the line.

Is it true that the PLAN/PLA have very limited forces within easy reach of the Indian border? I don't know the answer to that, but I would assume that the PLAN/PLA would have thought about it, and if they have the ability to bring rail lines close by the Indian border, then I think it is a "given" that they can bring warplanes, fuel, spare parts, radar and everything else, say within a week - before the "soft" Indians realize what is going on.

My point about the Argentines is that they went to war relying on a very limited store of imported high-tech toys, with no hope of replenishing those. They really had no plans for what to do if the British did not just give up and go away.

The British had enough depth to convert freighters to carry guns and aircraft, within a few weeks, and completely change the pre-war calculations. That's what the PRC will do, because of its immense advantage in manufacturing, logistics, and generally in speed of response. And they are not taking anything for granted - they are building rail infrastructure all over the place (and, I assume, airfields and bunkers and fuel and ammo stores.)

Re: missiles, the Taiwan Strait standoff is dominated by land-based missiles. The PRC has large numbers of these things. How tough is it to target Indian fuel, ammo and vehicle storage with land-based missiles? The Pakis managed to do that very well with artillery in Kargil, hey? They also mass-produce mobile SAMs, and they will get them on to the mountains. How long will the IAF fleet last in flying through the canyons for ground strikes against such an enemy?

Anyway, what has all this to do with understanding the Uighurs? Point here is that India should be interested, if India has credible plans to liberate and hold Lhasa, and push the PLA right off the Tibetan plateau, while maintaining enough deterrent to prevent the PLA from hitting Indian cities.

Mark my words this uprising will be storm cloud no bigger than a hand that will rise up to be a cyclone and will realing PRC itself. I agree with you that the cloud has to be nurtured and supported.