West Asia News and Discussions

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ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

The Iran issue heating up is US poll issue to rally the Florida voters behind the Democrats.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Paul »

HK's famous words on Syria....no war in ME is possible without Egypt, no peace is possible without Syria...IOW Syria is the Pakiland of the levant region.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Pranav »

Troops retake Rastan as aid reaches Bab Amr residents
Lebanon’s Daily Star has said 13 French officers apprehended in Bab Amr are being held in a field hospital in Homs. A French foreign ministry spokeswoman said there was “no confirmation” of this story.

However, a foreign diplomatic source has told The Irish Times there were reports that between four and eight French officers were seized in Bab Amr around February 22nd, the day journalists Marie Colvin and Rémi Ochlik were killed when the media centre in the district was shelled. The officers were alleged to be helping the rebels with communications.

Although news of French military captives has not been verified, the arrest of 47 Turkish military intelligence personnel in Syria last year has been unofficially confirmed by both sides.

Meanwhile, western Iraqi Sunni tribesmen who allied themselves with the US to fight al-Qaeda during 2007-08 have expressed opposition to the arming of Syrian rebels.

Sheikh Khaled Khalifa argued that promoting dissidence and providing weapons to the insurgents would harm the people rather than the regime.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Syrian troops are pretty tough - won't be a walkover.

By the way, I am hearing unconfirmed reports that TSPA has been asked to deploy in the GCC to prevent Iranian refugees from coming in, in the event of instability/collapse in iran.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

X-post from Geopolitical thread

The India-Iran tunnel
The tough talk against Iran heard in Washington, Brussels and Tel Aviv is not being echoed east of Chabahar, the Iranian port in whose future India is heavily involved. In Beijing, Islamabad, Kabul - and New Delhi - the discussions are about percentages and payments rather than strategic strikes and sabotage. ....


I don't understand what the goals are for us in all this:

1. We are signalling that we are not behind any pro-Baluchistan movement.
2. We are making ourselves more dependent on Iran.
3. Afghanistan supposedly closed down a camp training Baluch freedom fighters, too.
4. It all makes TSP and China happy.

How does India really benefit from this regional Asian bhai-bhai against Western designs in the region?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

I shall try and explain:
Carl wrote:X-post from Geopolitical thread

I don't understand what the goals are for us in all this:

1. We are signalling that we are not behind any pro-Baluchistan movement.
Don't want to deal with the break up of TSP - who will pick up the bills? We will. Can you imagine the instability there? While its nice to threaten TSP every now and then, we dont want to split Baluchistan apart and break TSP.

2. We are making ourselves more dependent on Iran.
Not really, India is saying we will support Iran come what may. We are increasing trade so that we can continue to buy their oil and support the Iranians. Also, we bought up the oil that PRC refused to take on the cheap.
3. Afghanistan supposedly closed down a camp training Baluch freedom fighters, too.
If this is the price of peace and get TSP to force the Taliban to the table and stop fighting, then for him, its a price worth paying. Karzai knows what he has to do, guarantee to support TSP/KSA interest. This is what he is trying to do, but he is being Naive imo.
How does India really benefit from this regional Asian bhai-bhai against Western designs in the region?
Access to Central Asia and more importantly Afghanistan. There is a reason why Indian aid is being focused in the pashtun areas - and also investing in the afghan mining sector (to keep Karzai alive!) - you need a supply line to bring all this out to India. Then, the real reason is to deploy when the time comes.

Then, under the shah, Iran was under the US umbrella - he obviously sided with TSP/GCC. We'd rather have these guys in power than a pro-US power.

Its more of a balance right now, we are giving out psyops of cancelled oil purchases and making switches to KSA, Iraq etc. Simple - we will not give up on Iran until someone offers a solution.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by V_Raman »

what if, at the end of all this hand-waving, karzai requests indian troops for stabilizing AFG?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Then we can via the 900km railway line and roads into Afghanistan. Supply line needs to be secured though. Iran and Russia will have to say yes.

At the moment, Iran is on our side. TSP will do anything to shut the plans down and hence playing nice with Iran. It was Iran that asked us to accelerate Chabahhar port work and gave the clear for rail/road construction. This is for the future. TSP is worried no doubt.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Arav »

The problems facing Muslim nations
I recognize well this is very sensitive subject because human nature prefers not to hear the truth and simply wants to receive good news even at the expense of reality. However, let’s be frank: Most Islamic countries are being left behind in social progress as compared with other nations. There are essentially five reasons for this situation.

First, we must consider the educational curriculums adopted in Islamic countries, knowing that education is the first step toward refining the talent and minds of scientists, inventors and innovators. Yet, our curriculums and our teachers, being the products of cultural norms in most Muslim countries, remain wedded to the past and unable to produce persons of creative minds and innovative ways of thinking. Why is this so? Because these curriculums and the attitudes of teachers fail to value or embrace the disciplines that are vital for today, such as subjects like mathematics, chemistry, physics, philosophy and logic, which have been disregarded and replaced, with all due respect, by mostly religious subjects and teachers who seek to impose religious dogma upon their students.

While there is nothing wrong with religious classes at educational institutions devoted exclusively to religious instruction and training, such classes may impair scientific study if they are taught intensively in non-religious educational institutions. It has been proven throughout history (and beyond any doubt) that no nation can progress if it uses an educational system that focuses on purely religious curriculums that are based on memorization and blind obedience. Instead, the curriculums that have produced brilliant thinkers throughout history are based on understanding, comprehension, experimentation and invention. Indeed the Holy Qur’an repeatedly asks: Do they not reflect? Do they not ponder? Do they not understand? This certainly encourages thinking and contemplation, rather than blind unquestioning obedience to religious dogma. But how can we change this paradigm?

Secondly, Islamic nations generally tend to dwell in the past at the expense of the present and the future and thus become prisoners of an outmoded way of thinking. Although great progress has been achieved in the past, now such countries seem frozen in time and beholden to certain school of thoughts that have been established by those who died decades or centuries ago, unwilling or unable to foster the kind of visionary thinking and innovations epitomized even by great Muslims themselves such as Ibn Sina Avicenna, Ibn Al-Haytham Alhazen and many others. Thus, we have watched as other countries have planned for the future by emphasizing the very things that have created technologies that are compelling and popular. Times change, challenges arise, and innovators respond and adapt. So must nations.

Thirdly, Islamic nations praise the abstract at the expense of the concrete, that is, they believe in the unknown and disregard reality by permitting this mysterious situation to dominate all aspects of scientific inquiry. Although the Prophet (peace be upon him) said to the people of Madinah, You know best about the matters of your world, so we must emphasize the physical over the metaphysical in encouraging new ways of thinking. Yet, we remain obsessed with the taboos, heresies and errors of every useful science and do all we can to suppress legitimate questions. When all sorts of freedoms, sciences, inventors and innovators are suppressed and restrained, we are left with those scientists who specialize in the fields of halal and haram, etc.

Fourthly, Islamic countries are obsessed with angels and demons, God and Satan. In other words, if something fails on the job or in school (let’s say an employee is fired from his job for poor performance or a student is expelled because of excessive absences or disciplinary problems), then the failure is due to the fact that God has decided that it is not meant to be, or Satan and his devilish schemes have caused it to fail. Conversely, if it succeeds, then this is God’s plan and the result of prayer to keep Satan away. Why are we unable to face reality and acknowledge the fact that we rely too much on intangible things, remaining confused? Why do we embrace a culture that promotes an escape from reality? How strange is that?

Finally, we can see that Islamic nations have used lame and illogical excuses to push art aside and intentionally hide it from their people. All kinds of art such as music, theater, painting, and sculpture have been de-emphasized or completely disregarded and buried alive. This has led to creating shaken and disturbed personalities and spirits, stifling talents that could add to the enjoyment of life. Art is a means to satisfy our soul and feed our emotions, producing a more confident, balanced and spiritual humanity and motivating people to live and work, and even more, to create, innovate and give of themselves to others. Art protects humanity from all that can bring it down and allows spirits and hearts to soar high into a sky filled with optimism and hope and to move steadily down the road of innovation, creation and discovery. The Prophet Mohammed taught us to cheer up our hearts from time to time, because grieved hearts live in darkness.

How can Islamic nations achieve such progress if there is little appreciation for thinking and questioning all aspects of our lives? We must turn the page on extolling religious dogma that breeds ignorance and fear of the future, especially when we have the great religion of Islam which is valid and applicable in every time and place. There is no question that Islam, as revealed to believers in the Qur’an, is a true miracle but only for those who are open to change their mindset and embrace critical thinking. Let us hope future generations, if we cannot,will emerge to lead us toward a brighter future!

(Dr. Khalid Alnowaiser is a columnist and a Saudi attorney. This article first appeared in Arab News on Mar. 5, 2012)
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

shyamd wrote:At the moment, Iran is on our side. TSP will do anything to shut the plans down and hence playing nice with Iran. It was Iran that asked us to accelerate Chabahhar port work and gave the clear for rail/road construction. This is for the future. TSP is worried no doubt.
Iran has also aggressively courted Pakistan, to pull it out of the US' orbit. Its not just Pakistan that has been playing nice with Iran. In any case, given the ideologies prevalent there, and the standard rule of "al-walaa wal baraa", I don't see how India can be confident about its interests when it is outnumbered in a partnership group like Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, after rebuffing Westerners, and seemingly without any solid strategic coordination with Russia.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Iran aren't stupid. They know Pakistan and Iran can't really be friends. The whole point of Taliban being there is to threaten Iran... Right now priority is to kick out the US as that is a big threat for Iran. But the collaboration isn't really that serious with Pakistan, Pakistan still has militia that is groomed to be used against Iran and India.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Aditya_V »

Regarding the capture of French troops in Syria. Is it true, then why complete silence in FREE WESTERN MEDIA like BBC/CNN etc.?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

Carl wrote:
shyamd wrote:At the moment, Iran is on our side. TSP will do anything to shut the plans down and hence playing nice with Iran. It was Iran that asked us to accelerate Chabahhar port work and gave the clear for rail/road construction. This is for the future. TSP is worried no doubt.
Iran has also aggressively courted Pakistan, to pull it out of the US' orbit. Its not just Pakistan that has been playing nice with Iran. In any case, given the ideologies prevalent there, and the standard rule of "al-walaa wal baraa", I don't see how India can be confident about its interests when it is outnumbered in a partnership group like Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, after rebuffing Westerners, and seemingly without any solid strategic coordination with Russia.
Why do you need anyone else when you have Iran, Afghanistan, on your side? Moreover you also have the GCC on your side! Between GCC and Iran - does it not take care of all of world's powers? Especially when the West is sooo bad morally and ethically being the onlee racists of the globe and goes against cutie pie dynasties and heavenly dictators, Russia is corrupted and is the onlee country that asks for kickbacks in military deals and all its hardware are so primitive! After all even China is better than those others - you can do business with them and talk peacefully from time to time!

As long as you can have chats with China and you are friends with both Iran and GCC - you have the world in your pocket.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

B ji when did I ever say that? I think just the opposite. India should focus on Iran, but in a way that frees it (even forcibly) from its West Asian cultural moorings.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

Carl wrote:B ji when did I ever say that? I think just the opposite. India should focus on Iran, but in a way that frees it (even forcibly) from its West Asian cultural moorings.
Ha hatasmi! Can I not even be sarcastic sometimes! :(( [That "you" is not you in person!)
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Its the INC led Indian elite deluding themsleves that they are safe.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Ah, me dense. Slow day...
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

SS Menon was in Oman meeting top brass - HM Sultan Qaboos (with the presence of the Def Min) and all the top dogs (from the intel walla's, MoD, Royal Courts affairs, Foreign Affairs).
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

GCC and India have a strategic relationship and now a secret component. The thinking in the GCC is that they need India on their side. India on its part wants Iran for Post withdrawal period in afghanistan but It wants Iran to know it has interests in the gulf to look after - 6 million people, Oil & Gas and even fertiliser for farmers etc
Source was hesitant to reveal the full extent of the relationship. I helped shape some of the ideas that were floated and help provide an understanding of Indian capabilities. Don't know whether to feel proud or happy. Bases are unlikely for now. Mission complete - time for a new challenge.

Everyone is pulling out the stops to delay the Israeli strike - Gulf intelligence reported that Iran is not building th weapon but is getting the capability to do so - in line with US intel agencies..Iran hasnt take the decision yet apparently. But this itself is in dispute amongst Iranian adversaries. Everyone is assumingthe worst case scenario - Iran will go for weapon to unite the country. War is not useful for all of Iran's adversaries although it culd happen by some sort of miscalculation on both sides - hence US efforts to imrpove comms with Iran - KSA setting up intel hotlines etc.. They are going to try other methods like threat of serious force, blockade, economic collapse , skirmishes to demonstrate intent.

Syria - Very similar to the 1911 film apparently. Anyone seen it? Something to do with the formation of the PRC from an ethnic group that ruled for 200 years (similarity to Alawites)

Top priority is being given to Jordan and Morocco as next year the economic situation will be worse, to prevent any sort of shock revolutions from occurring there because the situatio in other WANA countries is about to get worse like in Yemen, Tunis, Libya Egypt etc. Diplomatic battle underway in Gulf coutnries to fill the vacuum created by the absence of Egypt, Syria and Iraq.

Talk of some sort of combine of Tunis and Egypt to help Syria (not clear).

AKP - Islamist party in turkey is just using Islam as a facade. The entire project is pro business/commerce orientated.

My posting numbers will decrease from now on - trying to cut down hours spent on BR and trying to increase knowledge instead.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

shyamd wrote:AKP - Islamist party in turkey is just using Islam as a facade. The entire project is pro business/commerce orientated.
shyamd ji, I agree that AKP and all Gulenist networks are also business networks - but by no means does that mean that Gulenists or AKP are not serious about Islam. Both their leadership as well as the grassroots workers have made extraordinary sacrifices for their cause, and are enormously motivated. The religious angle must not be dismissed lightly at all. Rather, we should engage with them in all respects, including their professed spiritual ideals.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Pranav »

shyamd wrote: AKP - Islamist party in turkey is just using Islam as a facade. The entire project is pro business/commerce orientated.
It would be interesting to see if top leadership of the AKP has secret links with the military elites who were trying to mount coups.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Honestly Carl ji I don't know. But this is the message I got from him. He has dealt with them directly. That's the GCC view of davutoglu etc. will clarify when I get the chance..
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Nightwatch commentary

NightWatch 8 March 2012
Correction: The place names cited by the Red Crescent official and reported in the 7 March edition of NightWatch are governates, not cities and towns. Syria has 14 governates - often translated as provinces - which administer 61 districts.

It is important to enter an instability problem at the right level, meaning at the level of political organization that provides diagnostic and prognostic results. The international press persists in describing unrest in terms of governates. Entering the instability problem at this level results in distorted narratives and exaggerated reports about the strength of the opposition and the weakness of the government.

Readers are justified in wondering why the government in Damascus has not collapsed. The reason is that the government is not now and has never been threatened by a governate-level insurrection. The fight is in local neighborhoods and most are on the political or geographic periphery of the governates, posing little threat to central authority.

Syria is about the size of North Dakota, according to the CIA World Factbook, with a few differences. Syria has 61 districts which more or less correspond to North Dakota's 53 counties. North Dakota's counties, however, are not organized into governates or provinces.

Syria supports more than 22.5 million people in the same space that North Dakota supports just under 700,000, but with a lot less water. North Dakota has no cities as populous as Syria's Homs which contains over a million people. North Dakota has no sea ports or borders with hostile enemy states.

NightWatch has sought to enter the Syrian instability problem at the district or sub-district level so as to guard against bias and get finer ground truth granularity about just what is happening in Syrian neighborhoods.

For example, a careful survey shows that today the Free Syrian Army and its supporting web sites posted situation reports indicating that this force engaged in six operations in five different governates on 7 March. Several were exchanges of gunfire in which no one was injured and one was erection of a roadblock, in a territory the size of North Dakota.

This data supports leaked information attributed to US intelligence persons that there isn't much of a Free Syrian Army. There is unrest in Syria, but there really isn't much of an insurgency. For the purposes of comparison, in Iraq in 2006, more than 300 firefights occurred daily. In Afghanistan last spring, there were around 50 firefights daily and hundreds of incidents involving makeshift explosives.

Syrian security forces were busy. Opposition sources reported dozens of activities in nine of the 14 governates. A closer look showed that the activities were concentrated in about a dozen of the 61 districts.

Nine governates sounds like a big insurrection. Unrest in 12 districts presents a far more manageable security problem than nine governates supposedly out of control, but in fact not. No governates are out of control and apparently neither are any of the 61 districts.

A still finer focus showed that most of the opposition activities were small, brief street demonstrations (which were not further defined), according to the opposition's own postings. There were no clashes except as noted above; no bombings and no terror attacks on 7 March.

Most of the government operations were local neighborhood sweeps that encountered no resistance. Other reported government actions included over flights of aircraft, some vague armor movements and shelling. The opposition sources that posted the reports were not careful to distinguish whether the operations were by law enforcement and police personnel, paramilitary militias or the Syrian armed forces. Most were attributed to "thugs," which suggests the paramilitary militias.

Unfortunately the sources also were not specific about which sub-districts or neighborhoods were under stress from government operations. Each of the 61 Syrian districts has multiple sub-districts what are called, nawahi. It is not yet possible to track activity at the nawahi level, but it would show a more fine grained definition of the status of the instability problem in Syria.
So its not even a storm in a teacup.

More like demitasse cup or thimble!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by putnanja »

INFORMATION WAR - The Arabic media are furthering their own agenda in Syria - by K.P. Nayar
...
One day during my stay in Damascus two weeks ago, I watched Al Jazeera announce the “breaking news” of demonstrations against the Syrian government in Duma on the outskirts of the capital. I jumped into a taxi and persuaded the reluctant driver, who had also heard on Al Jazeera about trouble in Duma, to take me there.

To my initial puzzlement and subsequent revulsion, I found that Duma was as peaceful and bustling as Calcutta’s Park Street on a normal day, its residents going about their business as usual. To be sure, I asked around, but no one knew anything about any protests in their midst that day although many had heard about it on Al Jazeera. There had been demonstrations against the government in Duma, but the last time its residents protested was almost two months ago, in the third week of January, according to residents there.

Journalists are human. They make mistakes. So I gave the benefit of doubt to the Doha-based television channel, which was hailed as a refreshing new start in the global media when it was first launched. Among the scores of journalists from Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, India and other non-Western news outlets who were in Syria at the same time that I was visiting, there were many who had hailed Al Jazeera on its dawn as a welcome alternative to the American and European media which now dominate international news coverage.

During the remainder of my stay in Syria, I realized that this was not a case of inadvertent misreporting. And Al Jazeera is not alone in making up news instead of reporting news. A new crop of Arabic news outlets, claiming to be free, have become active players in the Arab Spring as much as rebel movements and governments in West Asia, the latter with their specific agendas that are actually in collision with the spirit of a new democratic upsurge in the region.


...
...
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Pranav »

Agnimitra
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Nayar makes one good point here -
India ought to wisen up to the threat that the success of the current media experiment in Syria could pose for its own multi-religious, multi-ethnic, pluralistic society. When the problems in Palestine and the rest of the Muslim ummah are eventually resolved, the new crop of pretenders to freedom of information in the Arabic media could one day target India to further the agenda of some Arab states by rewriting the rules of news reporting and diplomacy as we have understood them for a long time.

As of now, India is ill-equipped to face such a threat to its very existence. The earlier the country wakes up to this danger, the better it will be for all Indians.
Apart from the subtle psy-ops that is always going on in the DDM, we saw Iran using incendiary PressTV messaging to stir up trouble in the K-valley. So this has already been done and we were left with the job of putting out the fire.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Will post a special on Hamas and the Egyptian MB. A bit about the new Indian plans in Central Asia with the new corridor being constructed, maybe tomorrow.

Oh by the way 8 US mine clearance vehicles have now been deployed to the straits.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6YDTC0 ... ure=relmfu

Meir Dagans interview with CBS 60 Minutes

Almost everything you hear in the interview I have said on this thread already. This confirms the accuracy of the BRF analysis. BRF ahead of the curve always!

-------------------------

Hamas, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan al Muslimeen) and the regional situation

Had a discussion with my friend who is a relative of a very senior member of Hamas. MB leadership are all well educated - engineers, PhDs, Doctors etc and they believe in modern education. They feel they are the middle path - not extremists or liberal.

Egyptian MB don't want power now, they dont want a majority in the parliament because they know the economic situation is going to be bad and the people will blame them for their misery, so they want every party involved in a unity govt. So no one gets the blame.

He says that Israel is very worried about the regional situation - they have been pretty much silent since Mubaarak's fall and confirms Israeli interests were hit hard. Israel has made plans of a Suez Canal bypass, where ships can offload their goods on the western coast and will go via rail to Eilat before beingloaded up again on ships onward to the destinations. Why? He says they are all worried about Israel not being able to intervene in the Suez like before dueto the regional situation.

Hamas & its base:
Syria gave Hamas access to literally whatever they wanted, if Hamas said i want that building, they would get it. He confirmed Iran was flying in weapons via the air route. They had absolutely no problems in Syria and Damascus was the major hub. No one could touch them. But ever since this revoltion/crisis, the govt asked them for "support". Hamas replied and said you helped us when no one else would but we are sorry we can't offer you that support. So Damascus said they don't think the Syrian govt can continue to provide a home for Hamas.

But he confirmed they are still weighing up options. I said how about Cairo - he said Cairo is hesitant at the moment. The MB in egypt don't really want to have much to do with Hamas for now due to the politics. He said Jordan could be an option but everything is still up in the air.

He confirms that Iran asked for a shia centre in Gaza, Hamas politely refused.

Syria -

confirms its a cold war battle between Russia and the west. Russia/intel has close ties with the christians there and they use that as their base for influence there. They use the churches for any operations and so on.

People pissed off at Qatar - Emir promised billions to egypt and his son turns up with a measely $50million.

The entire region of the 'Sham' as the region is called is of very improtrant significance to muslims and they say that if there is no peace there, then there will be problems in the entire muslim world.

Reconciliation with Fatah - He says that this is politics, a few years ago they were murdering us and helping the zionists. Now its reconciliation. He says its done because Abbas just wants to improve his political image.

My Comments: It was clear Hamas is on the back foot from the conversation as we all know and expected.
Worries of the Suez canal control appears accurate too because British military officials have also been talking to India about the Suez.
--------------------
A friend of mine who is from a sunni village outside of Tartus confirms that they have also started protesting activity there. But after the Shabiha (Alawi regime militia) came and told them that if they come out again to protest, they will all be slaughtered.

---------------------
India - GCC defence cooperation - I think it will be about removing any blockade of the straits and helping clear the straits of mines.

----------------------
Indian moves to build the central asian railway lines is not just about trade and ability of indian goods to reach europe or russia quicker but also the ability to deploy serious troops/military in central asia and the ability to cut off Chinese supply lines if we have to.

The original plans that we hatched for AfPak would only be able to sustain a few thousand Indian troops that too with supply lines coming from mainly from Russia and not India. These routes being constructed means we can sustain a lot more and we can deploy a lot more serious force!

But don't forget the route to central asia and AfPak goes through Iran. The other supply lines are too long and therefore we have no choice but to do business with Iran.

Will post more later when time permits, time for a history lesson on naval strategy.

Have a good weekend all.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Saudi Arabia stirs the Syrian pot,by supplying arms to the rebels.This will/has already led to more chaos as bombs kill 20+ wounding over 100 in attacks against Syrian intel/security buildings.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/ma ... s-damascus

Syria: car bombs kill at least 27 in Damascus

Explosions occurred as reports emerged that Saudi Arabia was preparing to deliver arms to Syrian rebels
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

yawn.... BRF ahead of the curve.

I said this on 10th March:
Everyone is pulling out the stops to delay the Israeli strike - Gulf intelligence reported that Iran is not building th weapon but is getting the capability to do so - in line with US intel agencies..Iran hasnt take the decision yet apparently. But this itself is in dispute amongst Iranian adversaries. Everyone is assumingthe worst case scenario - Iran will go for weapon to unite the country. War is not useful for all of Iran's adversaries although it culd happen by some sort of miscalculation on both sides - hence US efforts to imrpove comms with Iran - KSA setting up intel hotlines etc.. They are going to try other methods like threat of serious force, blockade, economic collapse , skirmishes to demonstrate intent.
U.S. Faces a Tricky Task in Assessment of Data on Iran
Abedin Taherkenareh/European Pressphoto Agency

Shahram Amiri, center, an Iranian scientist who claimed he had been abducted by the C.I.A., upon his return to Tehran in 2010.
By JAMES RISEN
Published: March 17, 2012

WASHINGTON — While American spy agencies have believed that the Iranians halted efforts to build a nuclear bomb back in 2003, the difficulty in assessing the government’s ambitions was evident two years ago, when what appeared to be alarming new intelligence emerged, according to current and former United States officials.

Intercepted communications of Iranian officials discussing their nuclear program raised concerns that the country’s leaders had decided to revive efforts to develop a weapon, intelligence officials said.

That, along with a stream of other information, set off an intensive review and delayed publication of the 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, a classified report reflecting the consensus of analysts from 16 agencies. But in the end, they deemed the intercepts and other evidence unpersuasive, and they stuck to their longstanding conclusion.

The intelligence crisis that erupted in 2010, which has not been previously disclosed, only underscores how central that assessment has become to matters of war and peace.

Today, as suspicions about Iran’s nuclear ambitions have provoked tough sanctions and threats of military confrontation, top administration officials have said that Iran still has not decided to pursue a weapon, reflecting the intelligence community’s secret analysis. But if that assessment changes, it could lift a brake set by President Obama, who has not ruled out military options as a last resort to prevent Iran gaining nuclear arms.

Publicly and privately, American intelligence officials express confidence in the spy agencies’ assertions. Still, some acknowledge significant intelligence gaps in understanding the intentions of Iran’s leaders and whether they would approve the crucial steps toward engineering a bomb, the most covert aspect of one of the most difficult intelligence collection targets in the world.

Much of what analysts sift through are shards of information that are ambiguous or incomplete, sometimes not up to date, and that typically offer more insight about what the Iranians are not doing than evidence of what they are up to.

As a result, officials caution that they cannot offer certainty. “I’d say that I have about 75 percent confidence in the assessment that they haven’t restarted the program,” said one former senior intelligence official.

Another former intelligence official said: “Iran is the hardest intelligence target there is. It is harder by far than North Korea.

“In large part, that’s because their system is so confusing,” he said, which “has the effect of making it difficult to determine who speaks authoritatively on what.” ( :mrgreen: :mrgreen: This is exactly what I have been saying since 2008 and is the a copy of the Indian model in 98!!! )

And, he added, “We’re not on the ground, and not having our people on the ground to catch nuance is a problem.”

Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes, but American intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency have picked up evidence in recent years that some Iranian research activities that may be weapons-related have continued since 2003, officials said. That information has not been significant enough for the spy agencies to alter their view that the weapons program has not been restarted.

Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, agrees with the American intelligence assessments, even while Israeli political leaders have been pushing for quick, aggressive action to block Iran from becoming what they describe as an existential threat to the Jewish state.

“Their people ask very hard questions, but Mossad does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,” said one former senior American intelligence official, who, like others for this article, would speak only on the condition of anonymity about classified information. “There is not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”


In trying to evaluate the potential perils of Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ spy agencies have spent years trying to track its efforts to enrich uranium and develop missile technology, and watching for any move toward weaponization — designing and building a bomb.

Hunting for signs of the resumption of a weapons program is more difficult than monitoring enrichment and missile-building activities, both of which require large investments in plants, equipment and related infrastructure. American intelligence officials said that the conversations of only a dozen or so top Iranian officials and scientists would be worth monitoring in order to determine whether the weapons program had been restarted, because decision-making on nuclear matters is so highly compartmentalized in Iran.

“Reactors are easier to track than enrichment facilities, but obviously anything that involves a lot of construction is easier to track than scientific and intellectual work,” said Jeffrey T. Richelson, the author of “Spying on the Bomb,” a history of American nuclear intelligence. “At certain stages, it is very hard to track the weapons work unless someone is blabbing and their communications can be intercepted.”

The extent of the evidence the spy agencies have collected is unclear because most of their findings are classified, but intelligence officials say they have been throwing everything they have at the Iranian program.

While the National Security Agency eavesdrops on telephone conversations of Iranian officials and conducts other forms of electronic surveillance, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency analyzes radar imagery and digital images of nuclear sites. Outside analysts believe high-tech drones prowl overhead; one came down late last year deep inside Iranian territory, though American officials said they lost control of it in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, clandestine ground sensors, which can detect electromagnetic signals or radioactive emissions that could be linked to covert nuclear activity, are placed near suspect Iranian facilities. The United States also relies heavily on information gathered by inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency who visit some of Iran’s nuclear-related facilities.

But collecting independent human intelligence — recruiting spies — has been by far the most difficult task for American intelligence. Some operational lapses — and the lack of an embassy as a base of operations ever since the hostage crisis three decades ago — have frequently left the C.I.A. virtually blind on the ground in Iran, according to former intelligence officials.

In 2004, for example, the C.I.A. put a whole network of Iranian agents in jeopardy after a technological mistake by an agency officer, according to former intelligence officials.

In 2005, a presidential commission that reviewed the prewar failures of the intelligence on Iraq’s supposed weapons programs faulted American intelligence on Iran, saying it included little valuable information from spies.

More recently, the C.I.A. suffered a setback in efforts to question Iranian exiles and recruit nuclear scientists. Two years ago, agency officials had to sort through the wreckage of the strange case of Shahram Amiri, an Iranian scientist who apparently defected to the United States in 2009 and then returned to Iran in 2010 after claiming he had been abducted by the C.I.A.

His case is eerily similar to that of Vitaly Yurchenko, a K.G.B. officer who defected to the United States in 1985 and went back to the Soviet Union later that year, claiming he had been drugged and kidnapped by the C.I.A.

Like Mr. Yurchenko, Mr. Amiri’s case has provoked debate within the agency about whether he was a genuine defector, and whether any of the information he provided could be trusted.

The United States and Israel share intelligence on Iran, American officials said. For its spying efforts, Israel relies in part on an Iranian exile group that is labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, the Mujahedeen Khalq, or M.E.K., which is based in Iraq. The Israelis have also developed close ties in the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, and they are believed to use Kurdish agents who can move back and forth across the border into Iran.

American intelligence officials, however, are wary of relying on information from an opposition group like the M.E.K., particularly after their experience in Iraq of relying on flawed information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group run by Ahmad Chalabi.

“I’m very suspicious of anything that the M.E.K. provides,” said David A. Kay, who led the C.I.A.’s fruitless effort to find weapons program in Iraq. “We all dealt with the Chalabis of the world once.”


Just as in 2010, new evidence about the Iranian nuclear program delayed the National Intelligence Estimate in 2007, the last previous assessment. Current and former American officials say that a draft version of the assessment had been completed when the United States began to collect surprising intelligence suggesting that Iran had suspended its weapons program and disbanded its weapons team four years earlier.

The draft version had concluded that the Iranians were still trying to build a bomb, the same finding of a 2005 assessment. But as they scrutinized the new intelligence from several sources, including intercepted communications in which Iranian officials were heard complaining to one another about stopping the program, the American intelligence officials decided they had to change course, officials said. While enrichment activities continued, the evidence that Iran had halted its weapons program in 2003 at the direction of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was too strong to ignore, they said.

One former senior official characterized the information as very persuasive. “I had high confidence in it,” he said. “There was tremendous evidence that the program had been halted.”


And today, despite criticism of that assessment from some outside observers and hawkish politicians, American intelligence analysts still believe that the Iranians have not gotten the go-ahead from Ayatollah Khamenei to revive the program.

“That assessment,” said one American official, “holds up really well.”
Israel Finance Minister: SWIFT decision may cause collapse of Iran's economy
Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz welcomes Iran's exclusion from international financial networks, saying it dealt a 'tough blow' to Iran.

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz on Sunday welcomed the exclusion of Iranian banks from international financial transfer networks.

The decision deals "a tough blow to Iran's economy" and "makes the import and export of oil very difficult," he told reporters before the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.

"This thing can cause the collapse of the Iranian economy. Is it enough? I don't know. Is it significant and will it affect their endurance? Without a doubt it is a very dramatic step," he said.

All Iranian banks that were already subject to a freeze on their EU-held assets are affected, including the central bank and several commercial lenders.

It was to be applied as of 1600 GMT on Saturday, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) said Friday.

EU countries agreed to the measure on Thursday, as part of efforts alongside the United States to pressure Iran into backing down on its nuclear program, which the West suspects is of a military nature.

Iran insists it is strictly peaceful.

SWIFT, which has a global reach, said it had to comply with EU demands because it is registered in EU member Belgium and subject to that country's legislation.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

I think they are going to get close but not closer. They will adopt the Israelis and KSA path of undeclared weapon power.
A key clue is to look at their missile systems and what path they are taking.
shyamd
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

They could just get the capability and stop there. If they decide to build it, they have 3 months or so per IAEA regs I think which gives the west enough time to take evasive action. I made a post on the subject last year.

Everyone there is working on a worst case scenario basis where Iran will go for the weapon to unite the country.

Meanwhile the Israeli officials are saying that the threat of war by Bibi (and the top echelon) was the decisive factor in getting Obama/world on board for harder sanctions.

Then there is a interesting PoV by Meir Dagan- he said if Iran goes nuclear, it is their fundamental interest to keep the oil prices high and can do so by creating instability in the region and we couldn't do much about it - a la TSP - terror with N umbrella.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

The Fate of Syria

by Raymond Ibrahim
Stonegate Institute
March 8, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3192/syria-christians-fate
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What is the alternative to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria? Just consider which groups in Syria are especially for or against Assad—and why.

Christian minorities, who, as 10% of the Syrian population, have the most to gain from a secular government and the most to suffer from a state run by Islamic Sharia law, have no choice but to prefer Assad. They are already seeing aspects of the alternative. A recent Barnabas Fund report, "Christians in Syria Targeted in Series of Kidnappings and Killings; 100 Dead," tells how "children were being especially targeted by the kidnappers, who, if they do not receive the ransom demanded, kill the victim." In one instance, kidnappers videotaped a Christian boy as they murdered him in an attempt to frame the government; one man "was cut into pieces and thrown in a river" and another "was found hanged with numerous injuries."

Accordingly, it is understandable that, as an earlier report put it, "Christians have mostly stayed away from the protests in Syria, having been well treated and afforded a considerable amount of religious freedom under President Assad's regime." After all, "Should Assad fall, it is feared that Syria could go the way of Iraq, post-Saddam Hussein. Saddam, like Assad, restrained the influence of militant Islamists, but after his fall they were free to wreak havoc on the Christian community; hundreds of thousands of Christians were consequently forced to flee the violence. Many of them went to Syria."

In short, should "rebels" get their way and topple the Assad regime, the same brutal pattern experienced by Iraq's Christian minorities—who have been likened to, and killed off like, dogs, to a point nearing extinction—will come to Syria, where an anti-Assad Muslim preacher recently urged Muslims to "tear apart, chop up and feed" Christians who support Assad "to the dogs." From last week alone, some 70 additional Christian homes were invaded and pillaged, and "for the first time in the history of the conflict in Syria, an armed attack has been made on a Catholic monastery," partially in search of money.

And who are these "rebels" who see and treat Christians as sub-humans to be exploited and plundered to fund the "opposition" against Assad? Unfortunately, many of them are Islamists, internal and external, and their "opposition" is really a jihad [holy war]; moreover, they are acting out anti-Christian fatwas that justify the kidnapping, ransoming, and plundering of "infidel" Christians.

As in Libya, al-Qaeda is operating among the Syrian opposition; Ayman al-Zawahiri himself "urges the Syrian people to continue their revolution until the downfall of the Assad regime, and stresses that toppling this regime is a necessary step on the way to liberating Jerusalem." Both the influential Yusif al-Qaradawi and Hamas -- the latter supported by Assad's ally, Iran— back the "rebels." This overview should place the "opposition" -- who they are, what they want — in a clearer context.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Obama, who was remarkably reticent when Iranians seeking Western-style freedom tried to revolt against the oppressive Islamist regime of Iran, made it a point during his recent State of the Union Address to single out Assad by name as needing to go (not that the Republican presidential candidates seem to know any better; see Andrew McCarthy's recent article where, drawing on America's other misadventures in Islamic nations, he shows how the U.S. has little to gain and possibly much to lose by supporting the anti-Assad opposition).

The lesson here is clear: while it is true that not all of Assad's opposition is Islamist—there are anti-Assad Muslims who do not want a state that will be run by Islamic Sharia law —the Islamists are quite confident that the overthrow of Assad will equate with their empowerment. And why shouldn't they be? Wherever Arab tyrants have been overthrow—Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and so on —it is Islamists who are filling the power-vacuums. Just ask Syria's Christian minorities, who prefer the dictator Assad to remain in power—who prefer the devil they know to the ancient demon their forefathers knew.

Raymond Ibrahim is an Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum and a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.
Arab Spring is turning greener than expected.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

X-post.....
shiv wrote:cross post of a topic that is OT in the deterrence thread
devesh wrote:one single "political power" which is declared as Islamic, and uses Islam as a tool to attain and hold power, establishing itself as the most powerful force in ME. all other smaller powers in ME will follow in that power's lead on promises of looted wealth from kafirs. this is consolidation of ME under Islam.

JMTP's.

that is how I imagine it will be. doesn't mean it is the only variety of "Islamic consolidation of ME" that's possible.

Ignoring minor Islamic divisions it appears to me that the main division in west Asia is an Arab sunni versus Persian shia. But both are united in their opposition to Israel. Arab sunnis have tied up with the west, and Iran too was right in there until Khomeini. Iran remains bad boy because of its opposition to the US.

It is the US that is playing a dangerous game here - but the danger is to Israel, not to the US.


As is openly declared and documented, the US seeks to play "balancer". Israel's destruction would kill off the US's game so that cannot happen. But an undue strengthening of either the sunni ME or the shia forces would also upset the stability of the ring. So while the US protects the stakeholders in this game it does not seek to see any of them totally destroyed, although it would like to see all of them beholden to the US. In turn the US would like to see each of these entities supportive of US power. In the ideal "world order" US power and influence is supported by other nations, while the US supports other nations in their disputes with each other. That is how the US supplies weapons to KSA, Israel and Egypt while hosting peace talks. The US opposes only those who are out and out anti-US and do not accept US "aid". Saddam, Gadhafi and Iran were in that genre.

A country that accepts US aid and depends on US power for its survival and can be depended upon to promote US power and interests is all that the US is interested in to maintain "world order". Every country is helped to either fight or hold talks with its adversaries, but permanent peace is dangerous to the US.

Muslim nations have a history of bestial violence which we keep talking about on here, but they are also phenomenally stupid in the way that they are unable to unite to topple forces like the USA. On the other hand I have heard people say on BRF that Islam is extremely dangerous and should be considered as something that will automatically and inevitably endanger India if "allowed to unite".

Either islamic nations are too stupid to see this or they are being prevented from uniting by something. It seems to me that "something" is the USA which has taken over the job of keeping the ummah fractured from imperial Britain which originally fractured the ummah.

Many Islamists have realised that and these include Osama, Zawahiri and even Lashkar e Toiba. The current "world order" requires the USA to keep Islamism fractured. The USA keeps islamism fractured by keeping Islamic disputes going. Oddly enough the only Islamic dispute that is "settled" and does not seem to raise its head is the Islam versus Christianism dispute. But the USA is complicit in keeping the Muslim-Jew and the Muslim-Hindu disputes going by helping both sides but never allowing any side to dominate.

If India were to support this state of affairs and help keep the current world order intact India must support the USA and never settle any dispute with Pakistan. I believe we have to accept the Kashmir dispute as a permanent affair because it is the Kashmir dispute that gives the US a handle on Pakistan, and from Pakistan a grip on the Sunni world.

In my view this permanent need for India to suck up to the US and keep US interests protected so the US keeps islamism fractured using India and Israel as "balancing tools" is unacceptable in the long term. It will never allow India the strategic space to do what is in Indian interests

The other issue here is what if the US loses its power? The best statement I have seen in this regard is "the US is not about to lose its power anytime soon" That is a "high hopes" statement. There are many countries who can read the US game. A few realignments can significantly degrade US primacy and the US actively suppresses such realignments. However, as I see it when enough groups in the world read the US game, the realignments will occur anyway and the US-led "world order" will fall.

It is necessary for India to be ready to fill any gaps and try and ensure that the US's fall does not mean war for India. The US of course will be happy to see war anywhere outside of the US if push comes to shove.
What could happen is after the elections, there will be a move to revive US jobs, devalue the dollar and put PRC back in their place. How PRC will react is something to think about. WWII in Pacific started with US embargoes on Nauru Island which had the natural fertilizer.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

^^^PRC trouble is just starting off. Chongqing model fame Bo has been dropped. The CCP has been fighting for some time internally as I had indicated. Its not just pretended fight but also real contradictions and conflicts of interest which is weakening the party. PRC may not be in a position to fight back hard if US starts putting pressure with EU in hand.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by abhischekcc »

What are the cliques and how are they aligned? There is a 'Shanghai' clique which was nurtured and empowered under/after Deng. The hard core socialists never liked them. But the PLA tolerated them as long as they were bringing home the pork. It meant more power and weapons for the generals. This tacit support of PLA meant that the socialists could never challenge the capitalists openly.

Now that the wind has been knocked out of their 'capitalist' sails, the PLA is likely to take a second look at the whole arrangement. The PLA, like Paki Army, considers itself the final arbiter of Chinese security. If it sees that civil unrest is growing, they may simply make a scapegoat of the capitalist (in alliance with socialists), and re-enforce the iron rice bowl economics of earlier years.

There might be an intra-party coup, just to ensure that the CCP remains in power. Although the wild card is that the people have tasted prosperity, and might not want to go back to the earlier scarcity based economics. Looks like the Chinese state is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

No wonder the capitalists are excaping with their monies to the west.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by brihaspati »

The story is more complex. The Neo-Maoists are the more ardent capitalists. This is however classic communist party factional struggle. Polemics cover for completely different personal rivalries.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Lets discuss PRC in the China thread.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by krithivas »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 333129.cms
Describing Pope Shenouda III as a great Egyptian patriot, External Affairs Minister S M Krishna today expressed condolences on the demise of the charismatic patriarch who led the Coptic church for four decades.
Shenouda? Coptic??
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