West Asia News and Discussions

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Feb 2012 21:26

Iran Can Produce Four Atom Bombs – Israeli Intelligence

Iran has four tons of 20 percent enriched uranium, enough to make four crude nuclear bombs in a year, Israeli Military Intelligence head, Maj.Gen. Aviv Kochavi said on Thursday.

"Iran is vigorously pursing military nuclear capabilities and today the intelligence community agrees with Israel on that," he said. "Iran has over four tons of enriched materials and nearly 100 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium – that's enough for four bombs. It [nuclear bomb] will be done… within one year,” he added.

Speaking at the Herzliya Conference in Tel Aviv, Kochavi also said that while Iran states its nuclear program is peaceful, Israel has “conclusive evidence that they are after nuclear weapons."

Kochavi said the Iranian nuclear program, which has begun enriching uranium to 20 percent from which it can be further enriched into fissile warhead material, stems from several motives, including regional hegemony and deterrence.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Feb 2012 23:13

AK Antony will be in KSA on Feb 13th. Rescheduling the previous visit where he felt ill. Taliban talks will be on agenda looks like.

----------------
I said earlier that All are watching Indias MRCA contract. The first reaction from UAE is said to be: How did Dassault work with India on this deal?

So, looks like they don't understand the strategic gains India has got as a result of negotiations.

French Rafale UAE deal back on-report

Thu Feb 2, 2012 1:09pm EST
* La Tribune says Sarkozy could seal $10 bln deal by April

* Win in the UAE could pave way for Qatar, Kuwait

Feb 2 (Reuters) - France could seal a long-awaited deal for Dassault to sell at least 60 Rafale fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates by April, turning around what appeared to have been a lost cause, French newspaper La Tribune reported on Thursday.

The French-built jet emerged on Tuesday as preferred bidder in a $15 billion contest to supply India with 126 warplanes, lifting hopes for a sale that would boost French national pride and restore the lustre of its aviation sector.

Citing unidentified sources, the paper said on its website that President Nicolas Sarkozy would go to the UAE in March or early April when the contract is likely to be finalised.

The deal, potentially worth $10 billion has been in the works since 2008, but was thrown into doubt in November when the world's fourth-largest oil exporter said the proposed terms were "uncompetitive and unworkable." It asked for details of a rival aircraft, the Typhoon built by the Eurofighter consortium.

"Everything has been unlocked (between the UAE and Dassault)," an unidentified source told La Tribune.

A French government source told Reuters that Paris was waiting to hear from the Emirates this month. Dassault and the Defence Ministry declined to comment.

Sarkozy scored a commercial coup with the announcement this week that years of lobbying had pushed India close to buying the Rafale and will look to make political gains ahead of April's presidential election in which he is lagging in the polls behind Socialist rival Francois Hollande.

The UAE has pressed for the aircraft's engines to be upgraded with extra thrust and for better radar, industry sources have said.

La Tribune said there were a few technical details still to be ironed out, but that they were easy to resolve. It added that as part of the deal Paris would take back the Emirates' existing Dassault-made Mirage fighters.

Speaking after the India announcement, French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet hinted there could be more deals ahead.

"Good news are like worries, they fly in squadrons," he said. "That (deal) is the start of a squadron of good news."

A French win in the UAE could also lead to further contracts in the Gulf Arab region which shares the West's concerns that Iran is using its nuclear energy programme to develop weapons, a charge Tehran has denied. Saudi Arabia inked a deal for U.S. arms worth nearly $60 billion a year ago.

Qatar, a close French ally, said last year it wanted to replace its fleet of Mirage fighter jets during 2012 possibly buying 24 to 36 units. Kuwait in 2010 said it was also considering buying Rafales to replace its ageing Mirage fleet.

According to analysts the Gulf countries are looking to have the same aircraft for inter-operability reasons as well as differentiating themselves from Gulf power house Saudi Arabia, which uses U.S. Boeing-built F-15s.

"My wish is that the UAE makes a decision that allows two neighbours that want inter-operability with it to make decisions," Longuet said in January when asked about potential contracts in Qatar and Kuwait.

"If they get the feeling no decision is taken they will look elsewhere. For now they are interested, but they will only really be if the first one takes a leap."

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 03 Feb 2012 02:33

UAE and Qatar have stopped all trade finance to Iran as of today. The position is that the GCC have to stand firm against Iran to preserve the "future generations of the GCC".

EU approves Oil embargo on Iran.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Feb 2012 12:27

UN agrees Syria draft

After four hours of closed-door discussions members of the UN Security Council have finally agreed the text of the draft resolution on Syria. Russia’s UN envoy Vitaly Churkin said the document will now be sent to the capitals of the participating countries, adding that a final decision was yet to be reached.

The updated version of the Morocco-drafted UN resolution on Syria takes into consideration Russia’s and China’s positions on the issue.

Moscow and Beijing were against the demand contained in the original blueprint, calling for the resignation of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Feb 2012 14:58

Israel May Attack Iran over Next 4 Months – U.S. media

There is a growing possibility that Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities over the next few months, U.S. media reported.

A Washington Post columnist, David Ignatius, reported on Thursday that the U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June,” before Iran acquires the capability to produce a fully-fledged nuclear bomb.

"The Israelis fear that Iran will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon very soon and only the United States could then stop them militarily," Ignatius wrote.

CNN confirmed the Washington Post journalist’s report citing an unknown senior U.S. administration official.

Ignatius wrote that one of the signals of the upcoming military operation against Iran was a statement by the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak last month who said that the United States and Israel should postpone a military exercise that would have taken place in May.

Panetta and the Pentagon refused to comment on the Washington Post report, Reuters said.

Israel views Iran's uranium enrichment activity as a major threat to its security regardless of the fact that the Islamic republic denied that its nuclear program is not for military use, it claims it needs nuclear power to supply a growing demand for electricity.

Israeli Military Intelligence Head, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said on Thursday that Iran had over four tons of enriched materials and nearly 100 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium, which is enough for producing four nuclear bombs.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 03 Feb 2012 20:54

Discussing the future of Syria, Nikolas K. Gvosdev writes:

...the reality of what has happened to other multiethnic societies when authoritarian regimes have collapsed does not provide a comforting track record.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/arti ... r-in-syria

-Arun
Sharing information, not opinions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Feb 2012 18:27

Sultan Qaboos's first interview with a US journalist in many years:

The view from the Gulf: America's quiet go-between speaks

by Judith Miller
Fox News
January 31, 2012
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Oman's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, a longtime, discreet intermediary with Iran, says that Iran is seriously seeking a way out of American-led sanctions over its nuclear program and urges the United States to re-engage the regime on a variety of issues, not just its nuclear program.

"No one in the world can live on his own in today's world," the sultan said, referring to Iran.

"They don't want to bring upon themselves more trouble. They know they are mistrusted and must convince the world of their peaceful intentions."

Specifically, the sultan added, Iran understands that this means working more closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency to increase international nuclear inspections of its nuclear program and returning to talks with the U.S. and key Security Council members, Britain, France, Russia, China, as well as Germany, known as the P-5 plus 1. Last Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposed such talks.

The sultan urged President Obama to take Iran up on its offer. "The United States and Iran should sit together and talk," he said.

Sultan Qaboos' conviction that Iran's alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons can and must be resolved peacefully was among several notes of optimism he struck during a rare, four-hour interview -- the first in-depth interview he has given an American reporter since 1997. The meeting took place last week at Hisn Al Shomoukh palace, about 90 miles from Muscat, the capital.

He disclosed that Oman, at America's "hint" for assistance, had recently conveyed to the highest levels of the Iranian government a warning about the adverse potential consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz. How precisely that message was conveyed -- "we have our ways and means," he said -- he would not disclose. But he added that he believes the message was clearly received.

"No one will block the Strait of Hormuz," Qaboos asserted.

Iran, he added, may also be preparing to adopt unspecified reforms.

The sultan shared his views before Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that Iran could acquire a nuclear bomb within a year. But Sultan Qaboos disputed the notion that this was Tehran's intent.

"They now want to persuade the rest of the world that while they are seeking a nuclear capability -- like Japan -- they are not seeking weapons per se," he said. He claims to believe them.

Asked why the West should try again to negotiate with Iran, since Tehran had reneged on an earlier agreement to reduce stocks of low enriched uranium which, if further enriched, could provide fuel for a nuclear bomb, he said that Iran's economic challenges had now grown more severe as a result of economic sanctions.

But Washington remains skeptical, noting that Tehran has not yet responded to the European Union's demand for a specific proposal from Iran indicating that its desire to talk is more than merely a time-buying tactic.

Asked about reports that Israel was allegedly weighing a military strike to degrade and delay Iran's nuclear program, Qaboos replied that while he understood that "Israel must be looking at all the options and keeping all of them open," he hoped that the situation would not "deteriorate to the point that Israel feels compelled to take drastic measures."

"Inshallah it will not happen," the sultan stressed. But were Israel to strike, "God forbid," he added, all parties would have to "do what you can to avoid an escalation."

"Peaceful solutions are always preferred," he said.

For Israel, especially, the sultan said, there was no viable alternative to resuming serious talks with the Palestinians. "These two peoples must find a way to live together," he said.

The sultan expressed optimism about Yemen, a country that has been in constant turmoil since the outbreak of the Arab spring last year. He said he believed that Yemen would stabilize now that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who came first to Muscat before traveling to the U.S. for medical treatment last Saturday, had agreed to leave Yemen, at least temporarily. "He realized that he should be part of the solution, not the problem," Qaboos said during the interview in English, which he speaks fluently and with a slight British accent.

The Sultan, who celebrated his 40th year in power last November, seemed far less optimistic about developments in Syria, Egypt, and prospects for a resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

With respect to Egypt, which just marked the one-year anniversary of the uprising that prompted President Hosni Mubarak's ouster, Qaboos said that he felt personally sorry for the Egyptian president, who is ailing and on trial for capital crimes, because "it didn't have to end this way."

"Maybe there were other alternatives, such as reform," he said. But Qaboos added that he wanted to hear from Mubarak's defenders. "A proper trial should be conducted and the truth should come out." The sultan also indirectly cautioned both Egypt's armed forces and militant Islamists from clinging to, or trying to usurp power. "No one party or religious group should impose its will," he said. "They all need to work together."

As for Syria, while refraining from criticizing President Bashar Assad by name, he urged Damascus to accept the Arab League's initiative asking Assad to step aside so that a political transition can begin. The Syrian government has rejected the Arab group's resolution. But Sultan Qaboos urged persistence and patience. It had taken time to convince President Saleh of Yemen that Oman's advice to leave was sound. Because Saleh was granted immunity from political charges, the sultan said, the Yemeni president felt that he could eventually return to Yemen to compete for power democratically. The Arab League resolution, as written, would enable Assad, who heads his own party, to "remain as leader of that and compete in a democratic system."

Oman has repeatedly used what the sultan called his country's "good ties" to Iran and his other neighbors to free hostages and help defuse potential politically explosive situations. A diplomatic cable disclosed by WikiLeaks says that Oman helped free British sailors captured by Iran's navy in 2007.

According to the state-run Omani news agency, Oman also helped free three French aid workers being held hostage by Al Qaeda militants in Yemen by paying a sum which officials here declined to disclose but that diplomats estimate at several million dollars. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has traveled here twice, once to thank Sultan Qaboos for his role in freeing American hikers being held by Tehran. Oman reportedly paid some $1.5 million to Iran and sent a plane to transport the hiker hostages out of the country.

To demonstrate his support for a "friend" in trouble, the sultan said he traveled to Iran for the first time ever during the Green uprising in 2009. But another Wikileaks cable, dated 2010, put such gestures in a more pragmatic light. "Oman views Iran as the strategic threat to the region but has chosen to manage the threat by fostering strong working relations with Tehran," the cable asserts.

Clinton has come here to Muscat twice to meet with the sultan, whom she has lavishly praised on several occasions.

The respect is clearly mutual. The sultan called Clinton "a lady I admire." He said he had not met President Obama, but had talked to him by phone several times. "He is a capable man," the sultan said, with somewhat more measured enthusiasm.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 04 Feb 2012 22:35

Russia and China have vetoed the resolution on Syria - http://rt.com/news/syria-resolution-vet ... china-515/

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 05 Feb 2012 07:02

^^^ It is probably good that India kept a low profile, and it is probably good that another Libya type situation is prevented, at least for now.

This might be an inflection point. Let's see.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 05 Feb 2012 07:27

Russian veto is not surprising given the fact that Putin expressed dismay a few months back to his confidants how Russia blundered by voting with the other three in UN against the Lybian's regime, and how NATO used that vote as an excuse for regime change. Putin vowed at that time to take lessons, and never again barter away russian interests. So, no matter how much the other three dilute the resolutions against Syria, UNSC route to approve it will be blocked. The other three can pull Sonia G's string to get indian approval, but not Russia's. Russia will harden its stand for quite some time.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Feb 2012 11:20

Its good to see China come in open and oppose the resolution without fear or favour ..... it is not easy when there is no much opposition from Western nation and Arab league for a unconstitutional regime change to stand up and speak.

Kudos to Russia and China for sticking to their grounds and taking every thing to their stride.

sunnydee · Post by **sunnydee** » 05 Feb 2012 20:04

I understand the water-downed resolution suits india as we dont any sort of regime change/Sanctions etc being discussed in the UN due to Kashmir etc. I understand we have commercial links with the country. However traditionally any idea what has been India's relation vis a vis the Syrian regime or to put it in a better way what has been the syrian regime's attitude towards India ?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Feb 2012 02:55

For Russia the veto is strategic - control of Europe. Asaad's operations seem to be an act of desperation - the more massacres he commits - it shows that it is a sign of weakness.

Asaad will be getting his flight to Turkey or GCC ready soon.

----------
Re Iran

The Israeli's are hinting that their clock for a strike is running at a different speed to the US. US might want to do something pre-election. Both say it takes 6 months for full effect of sanctions to take its full effect. But the Israeli's say 6 months be too late. Source says 100% the Israeli's are good to go, now just a question of timing. He says hopefully the US will engineer a blackout (i.e. no yes or no answer - i.e wink to attack).

Israel says they are ready for Iranian reprisals - Barak thinks the Israeli dead won't even be more than 500.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Feb 2012 03:34

In Middle East power tussle, India tilts towards Arabs

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Feb 2012 05:26

Interview: PM of Qatar(Video)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Feb 2012 07:13

sunnydee wrote:I understand the water-downed resolution suits india as we dont any sort of regime change/Sanctions etc being discussed in the UN due to Kashmir etc. I understand we have commercial links with the country. However traditionally any idea what has been India's relation vis a vis the Syrian regime or to put it in a better way what has been the syrian regime's attitude towards India ?

Your understanding is incorrect. stop posting irrelevant points of view.

India doesn't want use of force authorization by UNSC as a cover for aggression which is outlawed by UN Charter.

Its not a case of what Syria did or will do for India.

sunnydee · Post by **sunnydee** » 07 Feb 2012 00:30

You cant dismiss the fact that India takes a neutral approach to regime change at an international level especially at the UN due to internal security situations within its borders just by calling it irrelevant ..In fact the Panscheel argument you are making in this case is probably outdated.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Feb 2012 04:13

Austin wrote:Its good to see China come in open and oppose the resolution without fear or favour ..... it is not easy when there is no much opposition from Western nation and Arab league for a unconstitutional regime change to stand up and speak.

Kudos to Russia and China for sticking to their grounds and taking every thing to their stride.

Do you think this is the way it will keep going. This is a game and the smaller nations are protected by the larger powers else otherwise it will look like an ambush.
These small nations are put into a trap by these international system and Iraq was one of them.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 Feb 2012 04:14

Dispute still ongoing, US confirms they are against Military solution with Iran. Russia tells GCC don't worry, we will guarantee your collective safety.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Feb 2012 08:58

Will victory in Libya cause defeat in Syria?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Feb 2012 09:17

ramana wrote:......
Your understanding is incorrect. stop posting irrelevant points of view.

India doesn't want use of force authorization by UNSC as a cover for aggression which is outlawed by UN Charter.

Its not a case of what Syria did or will do for India.

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... _precedent

....You'll recall that UN Security Council Resolution 1973 authorized military action in Libya to protect civilians. The resolution was directly inspired by the fear that Qaddafi loyalists laying siege to the rebel town of Benghazi were about to conduct some sort of massacre there. In response, Res. 1973 authorized member states "take all necessary measures…to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory." France, the United States and other foreign powers quickly went beyond this mandate, using airpower and other forms of assistance to help the rebels defeat Muammar Qaddafi's forces and oust him from power.

One can argue that this was the right course of action anyway, because getting rid of a thug like Qaddafi was worth it. That's a debate for another day, although I would note in passing that post-Qaddafi Libya remains deeply troubled and the collapse of the regime seems to be fueling conflicts elsewhere. But what if the Libyan precedent is one of the reasons why Russia and China aren't playing ball today? They supported Resolution 1973 back in 2011, and then watched NATO and a few others make a mockery of multilateralism in the quest to topple Qaddafi. The Syrian tragedy is pay-back time, and neither Beijing nor Moscow want to be party to another effort at Western-sponsored "regime change." It is hardly surprising that Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin condemned the failed resolution on precisely these grounds. In short, our high-handed manipulation of the SC process in the case of Libya may have made it harder to gain a consensus on Syria, which is arguably a far more important and dangerous situation. ..

Something to ponder...

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Feb 2012 11:59

It is true the Russians and Chinese are smarting over being tricked on Libya. But the 'revenge' veto is actually a revenge on their own image and interests - As-sad is going to go, question is how much of a push will be given and who gives it. To all those on Arab streets, who may or may not hate the Unkil (more on that shortly), one thing is very clear - they will see Russians and Chinese on the side of their evil rulers for commercial and military interests, and to give Unkil a bloody nose, not for any purity of principle or purpose.

Arabs hate Unkil for two reasons - Israel, support for tinpots. I think Unkil is doing a lot to remove the second reason, and you see the results - new regimes are all either friendly or not as hostile. The first one will take some time to deal with.

Both Russia and China are not sufficiently anti-Israel to impress Arabs much. Now they have shown they sufficiently foolish to support Assad simply because Unkil cheated them on some other topic earlier.

China at least has future strength to take care of itself. Russia led by its tinpot is staring at an abyss..perhaps Putin can see his fate same as that of As-sad hence then solid support. Thankfully despite the best efforts of his own and his corrupt oligarchical cronies, Russia is still democracy, so he may not get strung up or shot. You cant say the same of his friends.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 07 Feb 2012 15:35

Russia not sufficiently Anti-Israel?

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 07 Feb 2012 19:00

Pranav wrote: This might be an inflection point. Let's see.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the UK and France realized that they no longer called the shots.

This could have implications for influence of western elites in the Eurasian land-mass.

Let's see if Lavrov is able to broker a reasonable compromise.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 Feb 2012 21:56

Edited

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Feb 2012 01:59

Nightwatch on Syria

Nightwatch 6 Feb 2012

Syria: Special comment. Readers are rightly perplexed about conditions in Syria. Syrian press restrictions inhibit any neutral or balanced coverage. Everything reported from opposition sources and activists is biased and some reports of massacres include manufactured images, according to eyewitnesses.

International news descriptions of a worsening crisis receive no offsetting coverage of testimony
from non-Sunni and non-opposition sources that little is occurring. The massacres are not taking place, or occurring to sources that receive messages from Orthodox Christians living in Homs, for example. Life goes on in all of the towns and ports.

Skirmishes at checkpoints are the most common form of clash. That means four or five people fire a few rounds at four or five soldiers or policemen. Defectors are Sunni conscripts. The Syrian Army is about 60% conscript. Desertion is common in conscript armies. Defectors from the professional, full-time, non-conscript core of the force, most of whom are Alawites, have not been reported.

The point is that western media present one side of the struggle -- that of the exiled Sunni politicians and activists with cell phones. Clips from social networking media are heavily one-sided and some are not authentic.

Limited communications from people caught in the middle, non-Muslims, suggest there is a lot less fighting and fewer deaths. Reports of carnage and massacres of hundreds do not seem to be accurate, except in opposition propaganda media.

The truth of the security situation is difficult to deduce from open source materials. Nevertheless, Readers should know that Russia and China have first rate intelligence services. The Russians in particular have deep roots in Syria. They apparently have advised their leaders that the situation in Syria is not as described by the US at the UN, reflected in the Russian and Chinese veto of the UN resolution over the weekend.

NightWatch has seen this situation before, in Afghanistan in 1989. The Soviets withdrew the 40th Army, judging that the Najibullah government would survive. The US policy elite were convinced the pro-Soviet Afghan government would collapse in violence within months after Soviet combat forces withdrew. In fact it lasted three years.

Two important rules of intelligence analysis are never underestimate the intelligence capabilities of the opposition and always question critically the influence of bias in US information channels. The other guys always know things the US cannot know.

The situation in Syria is not yet as dramatic and dire as US nightly news reports. The end game for the Asad regime has begun, but that does not mean its end will be swift. The opposition apparently actually "controls" very little and is much less robust than the UN debate suggested. The actual security situation in Syria is unknown, based on open source reporting. What is clear, however, is that the US media presentation of the Syrian security situation is grossly distorted.

Russia-US: For the record. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov described as "nearly hysterical" the US Ambassador's and the US Secretary of State's reactions to the Russian veto of the UN resolution on Syria. Lavrov is to visit Damascus this week.

Comment: The US closed its embassy in Damascus, but not because of security conditions or a dangerous security situation in Damascus. There have been no reports of violence there in days. Normal diplomacy and air travel continues. Even the Syrian road safety advisory network is working and reportedly told travelers over the weekend that the route to Homs was safe. And it was.

A US spokesperson said the Syrian regime is isolated, but such remarks are inane when Russia and China both back the Syrian regime. Holding more than a $ trillion in US sovereign debt, China is in no danger of isolation by anyone, especially the US.

Looks psy-ops going wrong.

Brutus fulmen!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 Feb 2012 08:24

Israeli perspective on the Syrian situation: To weaken Iran, start with Syria - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/opini ... syria.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Feb 2012 09:04

Weaken Syria weakens Israel.

NY Times is not worried about Israel.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 Feb 2012 09:26

Its an op-ed by an Israeli -

Efraim Halevy, a former Israeli national security adviser and ambassador, was director of the Mossad from 1998 to 2002.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Feb 2012 09:34

Pranav, Encyclopedia Britannica lists Intelligence in this order

Animal,
Human,
Military

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Feb 2012 10:07

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/07 ... in-rupees/

India will buy oil partly in rupees

NEW DELHI -- Iran's envoy in New Delhi says India will make 45 percent of payments for Iranian oil in rupees as Western sanctions hinder international bank transactions.Seyed Mehdi Nabizadeh said Tuesday the central banks of the two countries also agreed Iran would use the currency to buy goods from India.An Indian external affairs ministry official in New Delhi said he was not aware of the purported agreement. The official who spoke on condition of anonymity said India was exploring all options to ensure oil supplies are not disrupted.The United States and European Union recently imposed tougher sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. Past sanctions delayed payments as Indian oil importers have had to scramble to find banks willing to handle transactions with Iran.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Feb 2012 15:25

12th Dec

shyamd wrote:- Regional situation is very serious - Code Red Alert
- Hezbollah is ready to fire missiles into Israel if Syria falls. Syria said it will transfer SCUDs to hezbollah. However even Khaled Meshaal (the nutcase) is against going to war with Israel now.
- GCC is not ruling out a pre-emptive response with air/ground strike by the Israeli's. Turkey could also conduct a pre-emptive strike in Syria

IOL today confirms Hezbollah preparing for offensive to divert attention from Syria.

Beijing says Assad can no longer survive according to IOL.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 Feb 2012 16:42

shyamd wrote: Beijing says Assad can no longer survive according to IOL.

Any link? What is IOL?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Feb 2012 17:34

Syria: Beijing’s post-Assad plans

-----------------
I had said in August last year that Assad was trying for a diversionary war with Israel. Now Hezbollah is moving into position to begin an offensive on the border with Israel. US troops are already present I think.

SF troops are on the ground in Syria - arab troop intervention on the type of libya has begun.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 08 Feb 2012 19:11

Strange move by China, after apparently standing up for China and Syria:
Exclusive: China buys up Saudi, Russian oil to squeeze Iran

Or is this mainly psy-ops?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Feb 2012 19:16

THe PRC want an FTA with the GCC to be concluded asap, probably being offered in exchange for reducing ties with Iran.

FYI, there is talk that the PRC just downed a US drone for Iran but hasnt been released to the press yet.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 08 Feb 2012 19:25

shyamd wrote:THe PRC want an FTA with the GCC to be concluded asap, probably being offered in exchange for reducing ties with Iran.

shyamd ji, that's interesting. What is India's policy in all of this? For instance --

India Boosts Iran Oil Imports, Largely Offsetting China Cut -Sources

LONDON (Dow Jones)--India has boosted its imports of Iranian oil, becoming the Islamic Republic's largest customer last month and largely offsetting a cut in Chinese purchases as sanctions fail to dent Tehran's sales for now, people within the oil industry said this week.

"India scooped much of the crude the Chinese didn't want," one person said.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Feb 2012 19:49

Carl ji

All to do with Af-Pak imo and our access there. Its in Iran's interest regardless of who is in power to deal with Af-Pak and prevent the hardline sunni Talebs from coming to power.

Our entire aid program in Pakhtun territories hinges on Iran.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 08 Feb 2012 23:53

India is an extended neighbour of Iran and also a strategic one

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 09 Feb 2012 01:55

Been watching a program on the crusades. The more we look at it, its like the return of the Mamluk's who will be surrounding the Christian outposts. This time instead of the mamluks it is the sunni sultan's . Once Syria falls, they will finish up Hezbollah and disarm them in line with the UN. Israel will be forced to give up the Golan in exchange.

Then, lets say another spring like situation comes up in some of these countries bordering Israel - perhaps Syria or Jordan or even the MB in Egypt.

Then they are all like a pack of wolves going to fight Israel to deflect. For the next few years Israel is safe. Not in the future, its one threat being replaced with another threat on 2 borders (plus KSA).

But the US security response to this is giving the Israeli's unparallelled qualitative advantage. Will the US/EU (christian monarchs if we compare to the crusades) come and rescue the outpost/Israel during a recession or post euro collapse?

I'd be gaming these scenarios if I was Israel.