West Asia News and Discussions

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Feb 2012 02:25

NO. They won't come just in during the crusades.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Feb 2012 02:59

http://www.potatobusiness.com/index.php ... iddle-east

Indian exporters have begun marketing potatoes, the county's second largest vegetable crop in terms of volume, in the Middle East and in South East Asia.
This is as a result of the second consecutive bumper crop of 37 million tonnes this year, reported indiatimes.com.Currently around 2 million tonnes are exported to Singapore, Pakistan and Dubai.Farmers have been seeing reduced incomes from potatoes as the large volumes have driven down prices to below the cost of production, forcing them to seek alternative markets."We are planning to sell potato seeds to Egypt and other the Middle East countries. A clear idea of the potato crop will be there by a fortnight," said Jalandhar-based Confederation of Potato Seed Farmers chief Sukhjit Bhatt.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Feb 2012 03:05

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50515
The Syrian Crisis and the New Cold War

Russia has decades-old interests in the Middle East, in Syria in particular.hint in the air of a revived Cold War.
The Syrian crisis has, in fact, been a two-stage affair from the very beginning -- internal as well as international. On the internal level, the uprising has aimed to topple the regime on the model of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. In this increasingly ugly struggle, both sides -- government and opposition -- have made serious mistakes. The government’s mistake was to use live fire against street protesters who were -- at first at least -- demonstrating peacefully. The crisis could perhaps have been defused with the implementation of immediate reforms. Instead, mounting casualties have created enormous bitterness among the population, reducing the chance of a negotiated settlement.The opposition’s mistake has been to resort to arms -- to become militarised -- largely in the form of the Free Syrian Army, a motley force of defectors from the armed services, as well as free-lance fighters and hard-line Islamists. It has been conducting hit-and-run attacks on regime targets and regime loyalists.No regime, whatever its political colouring, can tolerate an armed uprising without responding with full force. Indeed, the rise of an armed opposition has provided the Syrian regime with the justification it needed to seek to crush it with ever bloodier repression.
At the same time, Iran, Syria and Hizballah -- partners for the past three decades -- have managed to make a dent in Israel’s military supremacy. They have in recent years been the main obstacle to US-Israeli regional dominance.
Israel has for years demonised Iran’s nuclear programme as an ‘existential’ threat to itself and a danger to the entire world, and has repeatedly threatened to attack it. Its fevered gesticulations have pressured -- some might say blackmailed -- the United States and the European Union into imposing crippling sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and its Central Bank.he real issue, however, is one of regional dominance. Iran’s nuclear programme poses no particular danger to Israel. With its large nuclear arsenal, Israel has ample means to deter any would be aggressor. Nor would Iran willingly risk annihilation in a nuclear exchange. However, a nuclear-capable Iran -- even if it never actually built a bomb -- would limit Israel’s freedom of action, notably its freedom to strike its neighbours at will.The United States has also suffered grave setbacks in the region: its catastrophic war in Iraq; its unfinished conflict in Afghanistan; the violent hostility it has aroused in the Muslim world, particularly in Pakistan, Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It, too, is striving to retain its pre-eminence over the oil-rich Gulf States. Some Washington hawks may think that the overthrow of the Mullahs in Tehran would put the United States and its Israeli ally back on top. Because of their own apprehension of Iran, the Arab states of the Gulf have allowed themselves to be drawn into the conflict. They seem to fear that Iran may endanger the existing political order by stirring up local Shi‘a communities. With Qatar in the lead, they joined the United States and Israel in their assault against Damascus and Tehran. Perhaps belatedly aware that a regional war could be catastrophic for them, there are signs that they are having second thoughts

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Feb 2012 04:28

Jhujar, What next now that allo is exported?

Ande?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 09 Feb 2012 07:34

Is BHO approving the US mid-east policies? it appears that
neo-con holdouts of SD and Pentagon are now running the show
on behalf of star of david......

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 09 Feb 2012 13:08

ramana wrote:Jhujar, What next now that allo is exported?

Ande?

My partner has been exporting ande for a long time. He is also doing salt and now got contracts for nellore rice.

sunnydee · Post by **sunnydee** » 09 Feb 2012 14:45

http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=750521

i thinks it good news for our diplomats if we have kept iran "not unhappy" with the syria vote....in the circumstances not a bad reaction...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Feb 2012 21:02

I think that Syria deserves a separate thread.Will an expert on the country pl. oblige us? JEM,where art thou?

The US is now threatening mil.intervention!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/fe ... moon-syria

"Bunkum" Moon,UN Sec-Gen,parrots his masters' voice.His statement indicate his bias.The west poised to intervene militarily.
Ban Ki-moon: UN's failure to agree a Syria resolution is disastrous
Lack of UNSCR resolution 'encouraged Syrian government to step up its war on its people', says secretary general

Lack of UNSCR resolution 'encouraged Syrian government to step up its war on its people', says secretary general

Julian Borger, Luke Harding, Chris McGreal in Washington, and Peter Walker
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 9 February 2012

The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, says the shelling of Homs is a 'grim harbinger of worse to come' Link to this video

The UN's failure to agree a resolution on Syria is "disastrous" for the country's people, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon has said as President Assad's government launched its most intense bombardment so far of rebel-held areas.

Speaking at the UN headquarters in New York, Ban said he had briefed the security council about a plan proposed by the head of the Arab League, Nabil al-Araby, for a possible joint UN-Arab League observer mission to Syria.

But as witnesses in the opposition stronghold of Homs reported an unprecedented assault involving tanks and heavy artillery, with more than 200 rockets falling in the space of three hours on the opposition-controlled suburb of Baba Amr, Ban said the situation was becoming desperate.

"For too many months we have watched this crisis deepen. We have seen escalating violence, brutal crackdowns and tremendous suffering by the Syrian people. I deeply regret that the security council has been unable to speak with one clear voice to end the bloodshed," he said in a brief statement.

The failure of a UN security council resolution calling for the departure of the president, Bashar al-Assad, which was vetoed by Russia and China, was "disastrous for the people of Syria", Ban said.

He added: "It has encouraged the Syrian government to step up its war on its own people. Thousands have been killed in cold blood, shredding President Assad's claims to speak for the Syrian people."

The situation in Homs was "unacceptable to humanity" and "a grim harbinger of worse to come", the UN chief added, warning the instability would inevitably spread around the region.

Ban said he had briefed the security council about his talks with Araby and the proposal for an observer mission, which could involve a joint official envoy.

"We stand ready to assist in any way that will contribute towards improvement on the ground and to the overall situation," he said.

The Guardian has been unable to independently verify eyewitness accounts or casualty figures from Homs, but similar reports came from rebel areas around the country as Assad, spared from the UN resolution, appeared to speed up attempts to eliminate the threat to his regime.

One activist, Raji, speaking from a basement inside Baba Amr, said Syrian forces had begun using heavier artillery rounds with devastating effect. In addition to the 27 killed, he said many people were lying dead under the rubble of their houses. There were also reports that 18 premature babies had died in hospital after power cuts caused their incubators to fail, according to the BBC. State TV denied the reports.

In the face of the increase in violence, western and Arab governments urgently sought a fresh response. The Pentagon was reported to be reviewing contingency plans for intervention in Syria, from providing humanitarian relief to direct military action. There was no sign the Obama administration was seriously contemplating military options, but the president is under increasing pressure in an election year to respond decisively to the reports of mass killing in the country.

"We are seriously dying here. It is really war," Waleed Farah told the Guardian via satellite phone from al-Khaldiyeh, another rebel-held neighbourhood in Homs.

Hopes of quickly healing the global rift caused by the weekend's security council vote came to nothing. When William Hague spoke to the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to ask Moscow to reconsider its vote and its arms sales to Damascus, Lavrov said there was no independent confirmation of the regime's use of heavy weaponry in Homs and elsewhere and insisted that the supply of Russian arms was legal, according to British officials. After visiting Damascus on Tuesday, Lavrov called for a political dialogue and a UN resolution backing the deployment of more observers in Syria, but the opposition Syrian National Council has rejected Moscow as a broker and is insisting Assad step down in line with an Arab League peace plan.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, said: "We of course condemn all violence regardless of its source, but one cannot act like an elephant in a china shop. Help them, advise them – limit, for instance, their ability to use weapons – but do not interfere under any circumstances."

China also defended its decision to veto the UN resolution and rejected Hague criticism of the vote as "extremely irresponsible" and "totally unacceptable".

With no sign of a break in the diplomatic deadlock, urgent efforts were under way aimed at building as broad an international coalition as possible to keep up the diplomatic pressure on Damascus. A "friends of Syria" conference is expected to be called in the next few days to agree joint measures, including fresh sanctions, anti-Assad resolutions at the UN general assembly, and diplomatic support for the opposition Syrian National Council with the aim ofcreating a credible alternative to the Assad regime. The next steps will be decided at meetings of the Gulf Co-operation Council on Saturday and the Arab League on Sunday. Most observers, however, believe Assad can weather such pressure as long as he can rely on backing from Moscow and Beijing.

Turkey declared it was launching its own initiative to confront what it warned was becoming a grave political and humanitarian crisis. The prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has spoken by telephone to the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, and the foreign minister, Ahmet Davotuglu, flew to Washington to press for an emergency international conference. Western capitals support the Turkish initiative but argue the leading role and venue is better left to Arab states.

Turkey's ambassador to London, Ahmet Ünal Çeviköz, said Turkey would not insist on hosting a conference. He said: "The important thing is to form as wide as possible an international platform of like-minded countries to show the determination of the international community that there is no possibility of a return to the status quo ante. Assad thinks he can buy time but we have to show we have no more confidence in him."

Çeviköz said his government believed the death toll was "much more severe" than the 5,000-7,000 reported, and argued that priority should be given to ending the violence and addressing the humanitarian needs of the Syrian people.

"The people of Homs are facing not just bombardment but a blockade of the city, with a serious lack of food and medicine," the ambassador said. "There needs to be contingency planning on ways of reaching out to people and regions in Syria which are facing this crisis."

Turkey has floated the idea of a humanitarian corridor or a safe zone for displaced populations, but Çeviköz said those decisions would have to be taken at the proposed international conference.

If Russia and China continued to oppose such concerted action, he added: "They will have the responsibility of being the culprits in a humanitarian crisis."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html
Syria uprising: live

Live coverage of developments in Syria, as Russia takes a "cautious" view on the fledgling "Friends of Syria" coalition, a man is seriously wounded by a land mine while fleeing into Lebanon, and at least 37 people are killed.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 09 Feb 2012 21:09

Homs going down anyway unless Assad loyalists are drawn away elsewhere by distracting attacks. So next is dispersal and guerrilla warfare.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Feb 2012 23:25

Acharya wrote:
ramana wrote:Jhujar, What next now that allo is exported?
Ande?
My partner has been exporting ande for a long time. He is also doing salt and now got contracts for nellore rice.

We have huge surplus and they are the nearest market. Grain must be our domain in the West Asia. This is one market which provide double benefits. Monetary as well undermining of Poaqs economic and political strength.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Feb 2012 02:39

Got a good picture of the intel operations supporting the Syrian "revolution".

Israel are running their own operations supporting the FSA. Turkey are running theirs from Turkey. Jordan and Gulf mixed with western intel are running their intel/logistical/financial support from Iraqi sunni tribal areas.

He confirmed that Hezbollah are preparing for operations on Israel's borders. The aim of Iran is to spend of Israeli hardware destined for war on Iran.

We were talking about the whole situation and comparing to Mamluk's. He agreed and said that earlier it was like the Mongols that were encircling the Mamluk's.

Kuwaiti "relief funds" are set up and are getting ready to enter Syria soon.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 10 Feb 2012 11:08

As in all ME countries, the Christians of Syria are also packing their bags and getting ready to leave.

Syria: Christians caught between two fires

Along with Lebanon, Syria is the only Arab country where Islam is not formally described as the state religion in the Constitution and faith is not listed in citizens’ ID cards.

However, in recent weeks, fears have begun to grow about a sectarian element to the violence. In Homs, where the population is split between Sunni and Alawi, these fears are fueled by the memory of the exodus of Iraqi Christians.

sunnydee · Post by **sunnydee** » 11 Feb 2012 14:52

One reason the increased division in the world wrt syria(or at least till the russians/chinese continue to support the assad regime) is going to lead to an increased military action by the syrian regime is because the Alawites, Christians and other non sunnis know that its a battle of survival...If the Sunnis get hold of Syria the non sunnis would just have to look at what happened in sirte to know what can happen to the loser..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16961376
However the sunnis will not give up so easily as they get increased support from the majority of arab countries.

From an Indian perspective a few commentators had criticised the GoI for supporting the resolution as generally India sits on the fence on these issues.
http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/commen ... te_1647629
However the GoI may have percieved that the sunnis at one point will get power in syria due to an internationalisation of the civil war. This would create a goodwill for india in the sunni world. The author of the dna article is critical that we have given up on our "non interference policy" however i would argue that as India gains influence we cant keep on sitting on the fence all the time...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Feb 2012 18:18

Source mentioned this to me yesterday: There are 2 units according to him.

Israeli commando unit formed to dismantle Iranian nuke programme

AN elite unit of Israeli commandos called the Depth Corps has been secretly created to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Mossad hit squads have already carried out assassinations on key Iranian scientists and the Depth Corps has been sent deep inside Iran to prepare an all-out strike against its nuclear programme.

Israel fears Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could order the facilities to be buried hundreds of feet underground out of reach of air strikes.

And a senior source in Tel Aviv warned: “We will reach the point where Iran gets delivery systems to fire weapons of mass destruction. The time to act is now.”

Five Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in recent years, but Israel is now gearing up operations against Tehran which has refused to abort its nuclear programme.

Trained in SAS-style covert operations, the Depth Corps was launched just a few weeks ago.

Israel refuses to officially discuss the Corps or the assassinations. Dan Meridor, minister for Intelligence and Nuclear Affairs, told the Mirror about the killings: “Are they natural, are they unnatural? I do not know what to tell you.”

Plans for an Israeli-led assault include air strikes against up to 12 key suspected nuclear sites backed by salvos fired from Dolphin Class subs in the Gulf.

President Obama wants to try sanctions before military action, but Israel hopes America and Britain could be drawn into a conflict and there are claims that Mossad is plotting to do that.

A well-timed Israeli strike against Iran, with US and UK warships in the Gulf may mean Tehran fires upon our forces, an act of war forcing us to act.

Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan was the latest Iranian scientist killed in a bomb blast on January 11.

The killings – many by motorbike assassins – were carried out by dissidents recruited by Mossad then smuggled into a covert desert base in Northern Iraq and trained in spy tradecraft and explosives.

Mossad agents have also launched a successful false flagging campaign to recruit Sunni Muslim dissidents to act against largely Shia Muslim Iran.

False flagging is when spies persuade recruits that they are from a different country in order to make missions appealing.

To do this they may have posed as officers from the CIA or MI6 to trick the agents into thinking they were working for America or Britain and not Israel.

Our source said: “Mossad officers are the most aggressive at false flagging since many in the Muslim world are nervous about dealing with Jewish spies.

“So spies sign up dissidents to do their dirty work for them.”

He also says that the GCC is investing into the US to bail them out and help them tide over the economic crisis.

The new meeting in turkey on syria is to meet up to discuss post Assad scenario - everyone knows he is gone.

Why Turkey joined in the coalition on Syria - the cause of the problems of Syrian alliance with Iran is to establish a center of Arabic-speaking world cut off from the world of the Turkic-speaking Muslims.

Iran is robbing Syria and Iraq after the central bank sanctions. Syria is paying $3.5 billion per month to Iran on loans !! They are also robbing Iraqi govt money.

For RajeshA ji - The israeli military intelligence chief said a few days ago that Israel wants an autonomous alawite state and an independent Kurdistan !

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Feb 2012 21:07

2nd Feb

AK Antony will be in KSA on Feb 13th. Rescheduling the previous visit where he felt ill. Taliban talks will be on agenda looks like.

Antony to Visit Saudi Arabia, the First Ever by an Indian Defence Minister

Defence Cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia is set to get a big boost with the Defence Minister Shri AK Antony embarking on a two- day visit to Riyadh, beginning Monday. This is going to be the first ever visit by an Indian Defence Minister to Saudi Arabia.

Shri Antony will be accompanied by a high level delegation including the Defence Secretary Shri Shashi Kant Sharma, Vice-Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen SK Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Admiral Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal MR Pawar.

In Riyadh, Shri Antony will hold discussions with his counterpart Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, besides meeting other leaders.

Current defence cooperation between the two countries include training exchanges, ship visits and high level visits. The visit of Shri Antony is expected to enable both sides to engage in discussions on areas where such cooperation can be expanded to mutual benefit.

Shri Antony will also be interacting with representatives of the Indian community in Saudi Arabia.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Feb 2012 23:07

shyamd wrote:For RajeshA ji - The israeli military intelligence chief said a few days ago that Israel wants an autonomous alawite state and an independent Kurdistan!

Geez, that fits exactly with what I prescribed here earlier!

Thanks shyamd ji!

For the benefit of the others, here links to what I wrote:

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Feb 2012 23:25

Shall we start a "Predictions" thread? It would be so interesting to have the predictions about ME first there! We have such high level intel flowing in here, we can almost have a ring side view in the innermost workings of the ruling circles and decision makers. Surely things will turn out in reality as these top most decision makers say before?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 Feb 2012 00:59

brihaspati garu,

just like you have led the thread "Future Strategic Scenarios for the Indian Subcontinent", one could think of having some similar thread "Future Political Scenarios for the Muslim World". I say Muslim World as a collective term to mean North Africa, West Asia, Middle East, Persian Gulf Region and Central Asia. Perhaps Malaysia and Indonesia would also belong in there, but primarily it is to mean the above.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Feb 2012 03:00

Rajesh Bhai, Kanha ho tum ? I might visit Aryavarat next month via your Aryadesh to make that soil pavitar with my feet on ground for few hours.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Feb 2012 03:21

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com ... istan.html
Will Egypt Turn Out Like Pakistan?
(Pakistan is like Black Plague of Medieval era)

T]here is some comfort in the fact that the Egyptian military lacks the same incentives and circumstances that have driven Pakistani politics. Historically speaking, Egypt has never faced substantial threats to its sovereignty or existence, and has not been defined by a narrative centered on fears of an external enemy. Of course, Egypt has had tensions with its neighbors, such as its ‘cold peace’ with Israel and a vacillating relationship with Libya, but its ties with both countries have improved over time. It also benefits from a more ethnically and culturally homogenous population and a more secure border situation than Pakistan. With Egypt’s external threat perception less of a burden, the military’s incentives to manipulate the political process should be expected to differ from those of the Pakistani military.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Feb 2012 06:56

India, Britain eyes on Suez

New Delhi, Jan. 31: The navies of India and the UK today shared concerns over the security of the Suez Canal — through which much of India’s trade passes — as protests roiled Egypt for the seventh consecutive day.

“It has dominated discussions and of course there is a realisation that Egypt earns much of its income from it (the Suez Canal) and it would not like that damaged, but then rationale is lost in a revolution,” the UK’s First Sea Lord and chief of naval staff, Adm. Mark Stanhope, said after a meeting with India’s chief of naval staff, Adm. Nirmal Verma, here.

“We, as military men, have to be looking at these (developments in Egypt) seriously. I can see doomsday scenarios. I don’t know about solutions. Yesterday, they flew fighter jets over their own people. The Suez Canal is vital and Egypt makes millions of dollars every day from it but when rationale is lost, it is like cutting the nose to spite the face,” the UK navy chief said.

Adm. Stanhope met defence minister A.K. Antony later in the day.

The protests in Egypt, in defiance of the curfew imposed by Hosni Mubarak’s tottering regime, are being viewed with concern across the world for many reasons. One of these is the waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea through which 35 per cent of world trade passes.

Information with the Indian Navy, that has an anti-piracy patrol to escort merchant vessels east of the Suez, suggests that traffic through the canal has been normal so far. About 40 to 50 ships were sailing up and down the 190km strategic waterway.

But the staff of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), the Egyptian government body that administers the canal, are leaving work early to comply with the curfew. This could mean that handling of vessels could get slower.

Under an international agreement, all commercial and military ships, irrespective of flag, can use the Suez Canal on payment of fees to the SCA. Egypt earned nearly $5 billion last year in receipts from shipping traffic.

There were also concerns in the Indian establishment over Indian businesses being hurt by the unrest in Egypt. In October 2009, Egypt offered India land in the Suez Canal Development Area for an industrial zone that would house Indian firms and joint ventures. India was the first country to which such an offer was made.

India has nearly $800 million of investments in more than 40 projects in Egypt. Among these are Alexandria Carbon Black (ACB) set up by Grasim India with a local partner, an acrylic fibre plant —Alexandria Fibre Co — of the Aditya Birla Group, and a joint venture between Asian Paints and the Orascom Group.

The Oberoi Group helps manage a hotel near the pyramids of Giza, and runs cruises on the Nile.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 Feb 2012 13:15

Jhujar wrote:Rajesh Bhai, Kanha ho tum ? I might visit Aryavarat next month via your Aryadesh to make that soil pavitar with my feet on ground for few hours.

Jhujar ji,

I sent an email to your google Post Office!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 12 Feb 2012 15:16

x-post from India-US thread:

American Jewish Committee Dismayed by India's Expanding Ties to Iran - http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/11/425633 ... nding.html

sunnydee · Post by **sunnydee** » 13 Feb 2012 03:15

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16984219

I dont want any islamists taking over the country..I may have had shown support for GoI supporting the UN resolution but i am changing my mind...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 14 Feb 2012 03:28

As predicted - jihadi's mobilised. Welcome to the new Kosovo - Syria

Saudis prompt Al Qaeda-Iraq move to Syria: Assad’s ouster top priority

DEBKAfile Special Report February 13, 2012, 3:55 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Al Qaeda Bashar Assad Iraq Saudi Arabia Sunnis

Syria frees al Qaeda mastermind Abu Mus’ab al-Suri
Saudi rulers, seeing Bashar Assad on the verge of defeating the opposition to his rule, are reported by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources as taking a hand in turning al Qaeda Iraqi cells loose against him. Saudi agents used their pull with Iraqi Sunnis to persuade al Qaeda leaders that Assad and his Alawite regime were their most dangerous foe.
The same message was also broadcast by their Pakistan-based leader Ayman al Zuweiri.
Al Qaeda strength was fast building up in Syria, say US intelligence agencies tracking the jihadists’ Middle East movements – ten days before Zawahri Sunday, Feb. 11 issued his videotaped instruction to all combat strength in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to converge on the Syrian battlefield.
Monday, Iraq’s acting interior minister Adnan al-Assadi confirmed that “a number of jihadists had gone to Syria,” reporting also that the price of weapons in Mosul had risen because they were being sent to the opposition in Syria “from Baghdad to Nineveh [province].”
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources estimate that the bulk of the 1,500-strong Iraq-based al Qaeda network– Syrians, Egyptians, Libyans, Mauritanians, Pakistanis, Lebanese and Palestinians – have headed to Syria. This accounts for the sharp drop in terrorist attacks inside Iraq
The jihadists are making it across, despite nightly battles with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malik forces, whom Tehran has ordered block their passage, and with Syrian border guards on the other side.
The newly-arrived al Qaeda cells were almost certainly behind the Aleppo car bombings Friday, Feb. 10, which claimed the lies of 28 people, most security officials, and injured more than 200.
After virtually crushing most of the pockets of resistance to his rule, the Syrian ruler may well find himself up against the new threat of jihadist terror. After battling American troops for nine year, Al Qaeda in Iraq will not be easy to vanquish.
Ironically, they infiltrated Iraq from Syria across same border they are now breaching in the opposite direction. After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Assad regime gave al Qaeda forward bases and charged a fee of $10,000 or more for each individual crossing into Iraq with Syrian security cover.
Al Qaeda terrorists are therefore familiar with Assad’s security forces’ methods of operation and terrain and know how to elude them. Even when the Assad regime and al Qaeda were in close cahoots against the US war effort in Iraq, the Islamists kept the secrets of their hideouts and training centers from the knowledge of Syrian security and military intelligence. They can now make a beeline for their old clandestine haunts, our counter-terror sources report, for surprise assaults on their former allies.
In this regard, Assad and his intelligence advisers blundered badly when they decided to release the noted al Qaeda theoretician and strategist Abu Mus’ab al-Suri (real name Mustafa Abdul-Qadir). Born in Aleppo, he fought the Assads for more than three decades. Yet he was freed for two reasons:
1. Abu Mus’ab is Al-Zawahri ideological and tactical opponent and rival. The Syrians counted on him heading for Iraq and countermanding his antagonist’s directives to move jihadist strength into Syria. But now they have lost him. His whereabouts are unknown.
2. Assad had a score to settle with Britain for backing the opposition to his rule. Abu Mus’ab was the mastermind of the July 7, 2005 terrorist attacks on London’s transport system and 52 deaths, as well as the Madrid train bombings of March 11, 2004 which left 191 dead. The Syrian ruler had hoped that on the loose, Abu Mus’ab would start a fresh wave of bombing attacks in the UK. There is a $5 million US bounty on his head. His encyclopedia “Call for Global Islamic Resistance has been a template for jihadists.
Neither of Assad’s calculations was borne out. He now fears that one his most dedicated foes will now be gunning for him.
In his videotape statement, Al Zawahri ordered the mobilization of al Qaeda strength across the Middle East: “Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day and the butcher isn’t deterred and doesn’t stop,” he said Sunday. “However, the resistance of our people in Syria is escalating and growing…”
Riyadh, even after giving Syria’s Sunni-led opposition arms and funding to stiffen their resistance to the regime, sees them falling back in the face of brutal military massacres. Turning to their Sunni friends in Iraq, Saudi agents asked them to convince al Qaeda leaders to make Syria their primary warfront and Alawite Bashar Assad’s overthrow their first priority - before even the ouster of Shiite Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad.
They argued that Assad’s survival would strengthen Iran’s and the Shiites’ grip on Baghdad, whereas his removal would weaken both their enemies.
Riyadh therefore laid on the money, logistics and arms for al Qaeda’s transfer from Iraq to Syria in the hope of energizing the flagging anti-Assad opposition’s struggle. Finally, after eleven months, Syrian dissidents find themselves sharing a broad base of operations with Muslim (Turkish), Arab, al Qaeda and Western allies.
Earlier fears in Washington that Iran would mobilize al Qaeda against American targets have been turned aside by Saudi Arabia getting in first to enlist the Islamist jihads against the pro-Iranian Syrian regime.

The bit about Britain backing Assad opposition is BS. They were close right up to the "revolution".

This fits in with what I had said just a few days ago about Jordan and Gulf running support from Sunni tribal areas.

shyamd wrote:Got a good picture of the intel operations supporting the Syrian "revolution".

Israel are running their own operations supporting the FSA. Turkey are running theirs from Turkey. Jordan and Gulf mixed with western intel are running their intel/logistical/financial support from Iraqi sunni tribal areas.

He confirmed that Hezbollah are preparing for operations on Israel's borders. The aim of Iran is to spend of Israeli hardware destined for war on Iran.

We were talking about the whole situation and comparing to Mamluk's. He agreed and said that earlier it was like the Mongols that were encircling the Mamluk's.

Kuwaiti "relief funds" are set up and are getting ready to enter Syria soon.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 14 Feb 2012 09:22

Boost to defense ties with India

By GHAZANFAR ALI KHAN | ARAB NEWS
Published: Feb 14, 2012 02:51 Updated: Feb 14, 2012 03:13

RIYADH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah held wide-ranging talks with Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony here Monday.

The talks focused on "a range of bilateral and regional issues” of common concern with special reference to defense cooperation between the two countries.

"The talks with King Abdullah covered several bilateral topics ranging from economy to politics and defense cooperation," said Antony, adding that he was "extremely happy and privileged" to meet the king. The talks were attended by Prince Salman, minister of defense, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, minister of foreign affairs, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, minister of state and commander of the National Guard, and Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah, deputy minister of foreign affairs.

The Indian officials present at the talks with Antony were Indian Ambassador Hamid Ali Rao, Defense Secretary Shashi K. Sharma, Vice Chief of Army Staff S. K. Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal M. R. Pawar. Analysts view this first ever visit by the Indian defense minister with a team of senior army, air force and naval officers as a very important development in view the Middle East facing new challenges.

Antony told reporters, after his meeting with the king, that he would be holding comprehensive talks on defense matters with Prince Salman on Tuesday. He pointed out that Riyadh and New Delhi are witnessing "rapidly growing relations" in the fields of politics, economy, energy and many more sectors. "The Middle East region is important for us," said Antony, while expressing his solidarity with the Kingdom and India's hope for peace and stability in the region.

Antony stressed the need for closer cooperation in defense as Saudi Arabia and India are on the verge of a significant long-range partnership. The international community will have to jointly fight the menace of terrorism, which is of "grave concern to global peace and stability."

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Feb 2012 16:46

Homs getting "Hommered" by Syrian forces.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle- ... ve-updates

Syria, Bahrain and Middle East unrest - live updates• UN 'failure' leaves Assad free to launch all-out assault
• Bombardment of Homs continues, say activists
• Thousands to take to streets to mark Bahrain anniversary
• Suicide bomb attack ahead of Yemen poll

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 00:19

Summary of AKA visit:
- Roadmap for defence cooperation is being penned
- Defence Pact will be signed when CP Salman visits India later in the year
- CP Salman and Khalid bin Sultan will visit India's missile facilities. Indian delegation will visit KSA def production facilties
- Peaceful Nuke cooperation (counter to TSP) been put on the table
- Talks with King Abdullah doesnt happen unless there was something political to talk/convey. Same with CP Salman.
- We have CIJW facilities in the Kingdom since early last year - being kept secret.

Top news in the local papers:

Joint team to prepare road map for Saudi-India defense cooperation

Saudi Arabia and India agreed on Tuesday to set up a joint panel that will be entrusted with the task of preparing a road map for defense cooperation and to work out details of a proposed defense pact to be signed later in Riyadh.

This joint committee will also prepare a draft agreement to be endorsed by Riyadh and New Delhi in the field of hydrography, said A.K. Antony, Indian defense minister, after holding wide-ranging talks with Minister of Defense Prince Salman.

Antony said: "Prince Salman and myself agreed to establish a joint committee to work out the details of our future defense cooperation, including the details of an agreement in the defense sector."

He added the two sides were planning to conduct joint exercises involving Saudi and Indian armed forces, ship visits from both sides and to work closely to combat sea piracy. "There will also be high-level visits from both sides," he added.

"I had one-to-one talks with Prince Salman first and then we had a detailed delegation-level meeting," said Antony, adding Prince Salman has agreed to visit New Delhi later this year.

The Indian defense minister said an agreement on all issues will be "reached during the visit of Prince Salman to India and I am also hopeful that the agreement on defense cooperation will also be signed at that time."

He, however, said the specific details of the two agreements would be worked out at diplomatic levels.

The talks were also attended by top Saudi officials, including Prince Khaled bin Sultan, deputy minister of defense.

Indian Ambassador Hamid Ali Rao, Defence Secretary Shashi K. Sharma, Vice Chief of Army Staff S.K. Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Admiral Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal M.R. Pawar attended the meeting from the Indian side. Prince Khaled hosted a luncheon for the visiting Indian minister at the Conference Palace on Tuesday.

Spelling out details of his meeting with Prince Salman, Antony said Riyadh and New Delhi would work together in the area of hydrography. Potential areas of cooperation in this field include exchange of information, nautical cartography and hydrographic surveys of important coastal areas, ports, harbors and designated sea areas. "We are also examining the possibility of entering into an agreement in this field," said the Indian minister, adding there will be substantial expansion in cooperation in the area of training.

Both sides will send their respective defense officers to so they can get to know each other and to join training programs, he added.

Antony pointed out the two countries have agreed "to explore the possibility of working together in the area of defense production." To this end, he noted the defense officials of Saudi Arabia will visit India and Indian defense personnel will also come to the Kingdom to see the defense production facilities for themselves and to map out areas of cooperation in defense production.

India is keen to boost its domestic production of defense equipment and warfare tools. Antony himself introduced the first defense production policy of India last year in a bid to significantly reduce New Delhi's dependence on defense imports, encourage private players and manufacture world class indigenous defense products. Asked about reports that India will be building a mountain warfare training school in Saudi Arabia, Antony said all issues will now be looked into by the joint committee.

He, however, did not provide details of the composition of the joint panel. He said: "The joint panel will try to work out an action plan for future cooperation in all fields." However, it is important to note that the Indian army is among the most experienced in the world in mountain warfare. The Indian soldiers have fought several wars and skirmishes in the most inhospitable mountain territories in the past. Hence, this can be a potential area for mutual cooperation between Riyadh and New Delhi.

On the question of sea piracy, he said the joint panel would work out details as how to handle sea piracy in the Gulf of Aden and waters of the Indian subcontinent and its extended neighborhood. “This is a major concern,” said Antony.

With naval patrolling getting tighter in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, which was previously notorious for pirate activities, the pirates now move to India's Lakshadweep Islands in the Indian Ocean. The two sides, hence, reviewed the security situation, said Antony. He said the current situation in the Gulf region is a cause for great concern for India and he hoped the crisis in the region would be resolved through peaceful dialogue.

He said the Gulf region is of immense importance in India's foreign policy. It provides more than half of India’s oil imports, said Antony. The region is perhaps the largest trading partner of India with total two-way trade reaching $130 billion in 2010-11, the minister said while speaking on Indo-Saudi relations. Hence, India would like to raise the profile of bilateral relations further, he said.

He said the Saudi side had also expressed their keen interest to boost relations further with India in all fields following the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah. On other subjects taken up for discussions with Saudi officials, he said Prince Salman commended the contributions of Indian scholars in different fields. Prince Salman also fondly recalled the first visit of Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to Saudi Arabia and the late King Saud to India, said Antony.

Prince Salman also highlighted the visit of King Abdullah to India in 2006 that led to the strengthening of partnerships between the two countries. Saudi Arabia also offered additional crude supplies to India, an Indian government statement said on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil supplier to India, the world’s fourth biggest oil consumer. Indian refiners are currently scouting for supplies to gradually replace oil from Western sanctions-hit Iran.

Referring to his talks with Saudi officials, Antony reiterated that his discussions with Prince Salman and Prince Khaled would lead to specific initiatives to deepen defense exchanges for the benefit of both countries.

Earlier on Monday night, while addressing the Indian community, Antony described the Kingdom as an important strategic partner of India in the region. He said over 6 million Indians live and work in the region and the Indian government appreciates the assistance of their host governments toward their safety and well-being.

Talking about India’s economic successes, he said this has been achieved within the framework of India’s democratic and secular order. “In this order, every Indian enjoys freedom to pursue his beliefs and aspirations and has rights to ensure he can realize his dreams with the assurance that the state will protect his unique identity and individuality," said the Indian defense minister.

Antony, who wrapped up his two-day visit to Riyadh Tuesday evening, said India is working closely with all countries in the Gulf region in a coordinated manner to combat terrorism and for anti-piracy measures.

Antony expressed confidence that his visit will give a “new substance and direction” to Indo-Saudi defense ties, which constitute an important component of the emerging strategic partnership between the two countries.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 16 Feb 2012 01:27

shyamd wrote: - We have CIJW facilities in the Kingdom since early last year - being kept secret.

Why do Saudi's need Jungle Warfare training? Do they have forests on their border with Yemen?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Feb 2012 02:21

why is India training Saudi Ghazis in mountain warfare?!?! what great secularist purpose does this serve?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 02:49

nachiket wrote: Why do Saudi's need Jungle Warfare training? Do they have forests on their border with Yemen?

Mountain/hills warfare not high altitude.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 02:50

devesh wrote:why is India training Saudi Ghazis in mountain warfare?!?! what great secularist purpose does this serve?

Why have exercises with PRC?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Feb 2012 04:51

I thought there was a difference between exercises and dedicated training apparatus and "schools". which one is it?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 04:58

Both have same aims. Exercises - see what I can do. They see what we can do. Schools - they tell us how they approach a situation, we teach them how we approach them. We are the best in the world at mountain warfare.

Besides - its more about reducing their need for pak.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Feb 2012 07:18

clearly the idea of "training" is much more comprehensive than exercises. there can't be any arguments there. as for their dependence on Pak, why mountain warfare? they're in the middle of a desert without the hilly geography like the atacama. why do they need extensive training in mountain warfare?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 13:04

Have a look at the border with Yemen

member_20617 · Post by **member_20617** » 16 Feb 2012 16:31

shyamd wrote:Both have same aims. Exercises - see what I can do. They see what we can do. Schools - they tell us how they approach a situation, we teach them how we approach them. We are the best in the world at mountain warfare.

Besides - its more about reducing their need for pak.

I am just curious that apart from reducing their need for Pak, what else do we gain?

With us being the best in the world at mountain warfare and teaching Saudis, it looks like SA is benefitting far more than us!

Could we not get cheaper oil in bargain? LoL

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2012 17:57

^^ Cheaper oil - never given these days - even Pak who has been requesting it for over 5 years didn't get it until last year when GCC - Iran clash appeared likely.

No we get their capital pumped in for our infrastructure development - accelerating our economic development which means more investments in our defence, tie the noose around Pak but getting its friends to stop finding them useful.

Mid-air invite to Antony

- Grand welcome for defence minister in Riyadh

SUJAN DUTTA

Saudi deputy defence minister Prince Khalid Bin Sultan (left) with Antony in Riyadh on Tuesday. (PTI)
New Delhi, Feb. 15: As defence minister A.K. Antony’s Brazil-made Embraer Legacy jet flew over the Arabian Sea on Monday afternoon, the captain relayed a message to his VIP passenger: The King of Saudi Arabia invites you to the palace of the House of Saud in Riyadh.

Strangely enough, at a time India-Iran ties are being questioned by Israel after the attack on its diplomat in Delhi, the defence minister’s pre-scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia is likely to have a marked bearing on India-West Asia relations.

India and Iran, which also used military hardware of Soviet vintage, have had many years of defence ties but those have been waning in the past five years. India-Saudi Arabia defence relations have been practically non-existent. “But now the foundations have been laid and things are going to change very fast,” a defence ministry official said after Antony returned last night.

Antony is the first Indian defence minister to have visited Saudi Arabia at the head of an official delegation. As an ice-breaker event, it was expected to be important. But even by those standards, the exceptional invite from King Abdullah — that was not on the defence minister’s schedule — carried with it an unstated message from Riyadh to New Delhi.

In decoding that message, defence ministry officials are finding that India has just found an opportunity to open its door to the Arab worldwider. But New Delhi has to tiptoe into the politics and the tumult that cuts an arc from Pakistan to the Mediterranean or get sucked into volatile environments with immediate impacts on both its diaspora and its energy demands.

Antony was received at the royal palace in Riyadh almost immediately after landing by the king himself. “That was a grand gesture. He had just been through a spinal surgery and standing must have been very difficult for him,” a ministry official who was in the delegation said.

India and Saudi Arabia agreed in the meeting that followed the next day between Antony and his counterpart, Prince Salman Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, that they would set up a Joint Committee on Defence Co-operation, which would lead to the signing of a memorandum of understanding.

Antony offered Indian naval hydrographic expertise, which Riyadh immediately accepted, the official said. This means that the Indian Navy may find itself exploring the seabed of the Persian Gulf and the North Arabian Sea in assignments that are largely undertaken by only the US and the Iranians. The Gulf itself is now tension-ridden with Iranian navy in drills at its mouth in the Strait of Hormuz, even threatening to blockade it.

The ministry official said Saudi Arabia was also interested in joint military training. This is a little surprising because significant elements of the Saudi armed forces train in Pakistan and citizens of Pakistani origin even serve in the Saudi military. Riyadh could now be doubting if Pakistan’s military infrastructure, emasculated and often conflicted within itself, can continue to extend the kind of support it has done for much longer, the official said.

The Saudis are also understood to have conveyed to Antony that the quota of oil supplies to India could be expanded if New Delhi and Riyadh worked on it. This assurance apparently came from the king himself. India imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia. Iran is the next biggest supplier.

But largely Shiite Iran — with whom largely Sunni Saudi Arabia has a tenuous relationship at best — is beginning to find that its ties with India are getting severely tested.

Antony was leading high-powered delegation that included the Vice Chief of Army Staff, Lt General S.K. Singh, defence secretary Shashi Kant Sharma, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Satish Soni, and Indian ambassador Hamid Ali Rao.

member_20617 · Post by **member_20617** » 16 Feb 2012 20:31

Shyamji

Thanks for your response.

I still have some doubts about getting closer to SA.

(1)SA is the main exporter of Wahhabism including Indian subcontinent. Wahhabism will create serious problems for us in long term.

(2)Is SA trying to wean us away from Iran? We need oil from both countries.

(3)Why allow SA to inspect our missiles facilities? How can we be sure that they would not pass any sensitive information to Pakis?

(4)Why should SA be interested in any Indian military assistance when they can get the best equipment from USA? What could we sell them under defence pact?

(5)What effect this would have on our relationship with Israel and Iran?

(6)Wouldn’t it be better to get Japanese money & technology (hopefully with no strings attached) for our infrastructure development rather than Wahhabi petro-dollars (which will create more mosques & madrassas in India?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Feb 2012 05:14

Chaos: The new 'status quo'

by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Ha'aretz
February 17, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3174/chaos-status-quo

One year after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as president of Egypt, what conclusions can we draw regarding the ongoing wave of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa?

Around this time last year at the Herzliya Conference, the Israeli historian Prof. Martin Kramer lambasted the Obama administration for taking the view that the "status quo" in the region was no longer sustainable, and even went so far as to accuse the U.S. government of "throwing Mubarak under the bus."

Yet Kramer's critique was off the mark even then, for the fact is that the "status quo" - that is, the apparently stable order imposed by strongmen that prevailed in the Middle East and North Africa prior to the outbreak of the so-called "Arab Spring" - was never sustainable. The unrest that has come upon and now characterizes the region can be compared to a tidal wave: It is simply unstoppable.

As Oskar Svadkovsky pointed out to me, the United States could no more have saved Mubarak than President Nicolas Sarkozy could have saved the former Tunisian dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, whom the French government was eager to see retain power even as mass protests erupted in Tunisia. By promulgating the notion that the Obama administration threw Mubarak "under the bus," Kramer was inadvertently echoing the thoughts and intellectual legacy of a scholar whom he rightly took to task in his book "Ivory Towers on Sand": Edward Said.

The writings of Said - especially his best-known book, "Orientalism" - have unfortunately disseminated a patronizing view that in the Arab world, responsibility both for what goes wrong and for setting things right rests on the shoulders of Western powers.

What led to Mubarak's resignation in Egypt was not that the U.S. government had somehow abandoned him, but rather that the military, feeling the heat of mass protests, carried out a de facto coup. The same is true of Ben Ali in Tunisia, although there the military has now chosen to withdraw from politics.

In any case, a widespread problem with analysis of current developments in the Arab world is a tendency to impose false dichotomies. For instance, on the subject of Egypt's future, too much ink has been wasted on asking whether that country will emerge as a full-blown Islamist state or a healthy democracy. In fact, it is time to appreciate that a new norm will be dominating the region: chaos. Too often, commentators overlook demography, economy, tribal affiliations and climate change in their assessments of current and likely future trends.

For example, in Egypt, the ongoing protests in Tahrir Square have brought the economy to a grinding halt. Besides considerable decreases in tourism revenue and deleterious labor strikes, Bedouin tribes are stirring up trouble in Sinai, having taken over the Aqua Sun holiday resort - once a favorite destination for Israelis - at the end of last month with demands for a ransom of $660,000.

More generally, with a rapidly growing population of over 80 million, huddled around the Nile in an area that is only some 2.5 times the size of Israel, and with sharp divisions among political parties regarding how to solve the economic crisis facing the nation - Egyptians will continue to be quick to anger, having realized that the overthrow of Mubarak has led to no real improvement in quality of life, triggering a vicious cycle of further unrest. Likewise, few have noticed that Syria looks set to face a Malthusian-style collapse in the event of the fall of Bashar Assad's regime. The Sunni heartland is likely to succumb to the demographic and environmental pressures that helped trigger the uprising in the first place.

A traditionally pro-natalist policy on the part of the government has meant that the tribally dominated peripheries of Syria in particular have witnessed rapid population growth, especially among the armed tribes of Deir ez Zor, which contains most of Syria's dwindling oil reserves.

With Assad gone, these tribes will surely demand their fair share of oil revenues, potentially triggering another "periphery versus center" conflict like those that have characterized much of this country's uprising so far, or leaving the rest of Syria with less to spend on itself - above all as regards net importation of petroleum and oil products.

In addition, the suburban slums of Syria's major cities are teeming with hundreds of thousands of displaced migrants, owing to climate change and severe water shortages, with 500,000 people displaced from areas inhabited by the Inezi tribe in eastern Syria because of drought caused by shifts in rainfall patterns.

In 2007-8, 160 villages in northern Syria were abandoned for the same reasons. All this significantly increases the possibility that the country will fall apart once Assad goes, especially when one factors in sectarian tensions that have plagued cities like Homs.

For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing. It means that the Islamists and other hostile forces will be too distracted by infighting to focus any attention on fighting Israel. As for policy, Israel need only adopt a strong deterrence strategy. That is, to issue a stern warning that any foreign aggression will be met with severe retaliation, and act on such a warning should such aggression arise. Deterrence, however, must be consistent, as Grayson Levy once pointed out to me, because what Daniel Pipes terms mere "episodic shows of force" create the impression that Israel is in a state of panic.

In the meantime, we must accept that chaos will be the main trend in the region for quite some time, rather than constantly fret over false "liberal democracy vs. Islamist theocracy" dichotomies.

Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct Fellow at the Middle East Forum.