West Asia News and Discussions

[brihaspati]

How about encouraging the Bahrainis and Saudi dissenters to see to it that the current regimes no longer exist? Iran is our deeper than mountain friend - with sooo long a history of cooperation and cultural exchange - isnt it? Economic considerations overrule theology - and hence, even if Iran comes to power in the peninsula, or more radical regimes overthrown the current GCC ones - they will still sell oil to India! Moreover Indian cultural sooper relations with the gulf existed way before the house of Saud - so such deep cultural relations will withstand change of regimes - isn't it?

Financial flows are also dependent on economic considerations and not on theology - so theological character changes of regimes in the gulf do not affect India's energy concerns. In fact tactical considerations should suggest that it is better to encourage the faction that has lower following within India, the Shias, than the Sunnis!

[abhischekcc]

If GOI really wants GCC's proof of sincerity, they should ask those countries to conduct their entire trade with India in Rupees, including energy trade. That would be reverting to the old normal of Indian currency being the curreny of the gulf. This was something that was undone by the 1965 Indo-Pak war, in which the paki side was inspired and controlled by US.

[Kati]

What happened? suddenly Syria is off the western media radar?
Unkil, Auntie are not issueing oven hot comments on Assad regime?
'Khel khatam, paisa hajam'?
....
Shyamd-ji, any latest?

[shyamd]

Kati ji, will let you know latest when I meet source. But to give you perspective, King Abdullah told Hillary Clinton last month that they won't pump in the arms until the end of April and he wanted to see if Asad would honour the Annan plan. Which has now failed.

You will see a renewed attempt now to bring him down. But there are still disputes with turkey over financing refugees and post Asad world. Syria is essential to GCC security and they won't stop until the revolution succeeds. It will get more bloody and everything has gone past the point of no return

[shyamd]

UAE electrician wanted for six crimes in India to be extradited

The Interpol request was received in March following international investigation that showed he was living here. Investigation by Dubai Police revealed that the wanted man was sponsored by a private company and has been a resident in the UAE for a year.
His home in Sharjah was raided in cooperation with Sharjah Police, but he managed to escape to Ras Al Khaimah, Brig Al Mansouri said.

"He was very careful in his new hiding place in an abandoned yard and only went out to buy food, but we managed to find him after an intensive search and investigation," Brig Al Mansouri said.
Earlier this week, police conducted another raid and the man was arrested. He will be extradited to India after completing the formalities at Public Prosecution.

Saudi students lend labourers a helping hand

MOHAMMED IQBAL
SHARE · COMMENT · PRINT · T+

The Hindu

Saudi Arabian students working at a construction site in Naya Barkheda village of Rajasthan on Tuesday. Photo: Rohit Jain Paras
The group of 12 students is helping in the construction of low-cost houses for two poor families

May Day, that celebrates the dignity of labour, turned out to be a unique occasion this year for the residents of the nondescript Naya Barkheda village in Bharatpur district of Rajasthan.

In their midst was a group of young students from a far-off land playing the role of labourers for the construction of low-cost houses for two poor families.

Houses for BPL families

This is the third group of students from a West Asian country taking part in the house construction, initiated the Habitat for Humanity-India in association with the Lupin Human Welfare and Research Foundation, as a philanthropic gesture.

The Habitat for Humanity-India recently sanctioned loans on easy terms for the construction of over 250 brick houses for below the poverty line families living in huts and mud structures in Bharatpur district. The Lupin Foundation selected two beneficiaries, Devi Singh and Karan Raibari, in Naya Barkheda village.

Manual labour

The group of 12 students from Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, had arrived at Naya Barkheda to lend a helping hand. Braving the scorching heat, the youngsters were seen carrying bricks and stones to the construction site, digging the earth, preparing cement and building material, helping the masons and assisting the labourers.

Lupin Foundation executive director Sita Ram Gupta said here that May Day had added a “distinctive feature” to the philanthropic gesture of the students, who had won the hearts of the villagers.

The youngsters work at Naya Barkheda the entire day and return to Bharatpur district headquarter every evening. The team is likely to complete the work assigned to it by this weekend. They are students of Aliha School in Dhahran, situated in Ash-Sharqiyah province of Saudi Arabia.

Lesson for students

Mr. Gupta said the students had also learnt about the challenges of poverty and deprivation through their exposure to this largely backward rural terrain.

Earlier, two groups of girls from the Sharjah Women's College and the American College, Dubai — both in the United Arab Emirates — had visited Nagla Ghasola and Dharampura villages in Sewar panchayat samiti in March this year to take part in this humanitarian act.

[shyamd]

Will provide an update on the regional situation this weekend. Some very interesting stuff going on. Diskin, Dagan position could be strategic deception. They know Bibi getting popular to the extent that he could announce early elections.
More later. You will see more Israeli war drums beating until the meeting in Baghdad with IRan.

[Prem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/busin ... .html?_r=1
A Modern Silk Road Between Asia and the Middle East

Traders centuries ago brought silks and other goods from China by overland caravan trails and sea passages plied by sailing dhows — ancestors of the chunky boats that still berth, several abreast, along the banks of the Dubai Creek while scruffy crews load cargoes ranging from machinery to soft drinks for Iran and India.
In more recent times, as the West waxed in wealth and China waned, the old routes waned with it. But now the pendulum is swinging back and the Middle East — especially the Gulf region — is again growing much closer to Asia. Trade between Asia and the Middle East rose 700 percent in the decade ending in 2010, and more than half of the region’s trade is now with Asia, said Farouk Soussa, chief Middle East economist at Citi in Dubai. Booming trade is leading to growing investment as well as political and cultural ties. Not long ago it would have been a total shock for Abu Dhabi to order nuclear reactors from South Korea. American or French providers would have been the likely choice. “Asia is quite clearly where the Gulf is making a strategic gamble,” said Raad Alkadiri, a partner at PFC Energy, a consulting firm in Washington. “The Gulf states are hoping to tie their economies more closely with Asia’s. With the U.S. strategic focus shifting, they may eventually look to the giants of Asia to fill some of the security vacuum in the Gulf.” Those sales are helping Middle East producers generate gushers of cash. Simon Williams, chief Middle East economist at HSBC in Dubai, said that oil exports will earn $750 billion for the region's oil producing countries this year. He estimates that the main sovereign wealth funds of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi already have a total of $1.5 trillion in their coffers. “The Gulf is the beneficiary of the restructuring of the world economy and Asian growth,” he said. ”The region has never been richer.” Given the source of those riches, it is not surprising that even Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s national oil company, is turning East. It paid China the compliment of holding a board meeting in Beijing in May, 2010. And Sinopec, the huge Chinese state company, is now a partner of choice along with the likes of Exxon Mobil.

[ramana]

Nightwatch, 2 May 2012

Kuwait-Iraq-UN: Kuwait yesterday "stressed the need" for Iraq's continuing regular deposits in the UN war compensation fund in line with relevant international resolutions. Kuwait stressed the need for continuation of regular deposits in the Compensation Fund, as provided for in UN Security Council Resolution 1956 (2010), of 5% of the proceeds from all export sales of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas of Iraq; as well as 5% of the value of any non-monetary payments of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas, said Chairman of the Public Authority for Assessment of Compensation for Damages Resulting from the Iraqi Aggression.


Comment: Despite all that has happened since 1990, Kuwait, one of the richest countries in the world, insists that the Iraqis continue to pay for Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. This miserly attitude is one of the chief reasons Saddam invaded Kuwait in the first place. The Kuwaitis refused to pay their contribution for the eight-year war against the Iranians that protected the Emir of Kuwait from being enslaved by the Shiites. There were other equally stingy reasons.


The Kuwaitis still want to hobble a recovering Iraq, possibly as a way of increasing pressure on Iran because the Baghdad government is Shiite Arab-led and pro-Iran.


Special comment: This note illustrates why it is hard for Americans to tell the good guys from their friends in the Middle East.


Israel: The Israel Defense Force (IDF) has issued emergency call up orders to six reserve battalions in light of new dangers on the Egyptian and Syrian borders, Israeli press reported. The Knesset has given the IDF permission to summon a further 16 reserve battalions if necessary, Israeli media reported on Wednesday.


An IDF spokesperson said intelligence assessments called for the deployment of more soldiers. The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee approved the request recently, authorizing the IDF to summon up to 22 battalions for active duty for the second time in three years. The six battalions are part of the total of 22 battalions.


"This signifies that the IDF regards the Egyptian and Syrian borders as the potential sources of a greater threat than in the past," the former deputy chief of staff, Dan Harel, said on Wednesday night.


"The army needs a better 'answer' than in the past to the threat," he said, citing Egypt's deteriorating control over the Sinai, marked by an upsurge in Bedouin smuggling of weapons and other goods. He also spoke of the growing threat of terrorism from Sinai, as exemplified by an infiltration last August in which eight Israelis were killed. The Syrian situation was also highly combustible, Harel said, "and it could explode at any moment… and pose a direct challenge to us."


Comment: Many of the criticisms of IDF policy and practices after the 2006 invasion of Lebanon concerned the poor training, ill-equipment and low readiness of the reserves. Thus, there is a need to recall reserve units to active duty more often than was the case in 2006.


The public justification for the reserve recall compared to the domestic economic costs of mobilizing reserve battalions in the absence of a threat of war do not add up well. The Bedouin problem is a law and order problem. The Syrian problem is population control of refugee and occasional spillover from Syrian suppression operations. Neither seems to require activation of reserve battalions, unless media coverage has understated the gravity of the border problems.


As a contingency measure, reinforcement of the Egyptian border looks timely in light of presidential candidate Amr Moussa's statement that he thinks the Egyptian treaty with Israel has outlived its relevance. Open source reporting suggests the Syrian situation poses no security threat to Israel, only the irritant of Sunni protestors seeking refuge.


A more dangerous and fragile security situation exists on the Lebanon border, but these battalions apparently are not destined for the northern command.


The activation does convey a message that Israeli leaders are in no mood to be patient with even minor provocations on any border. If that is the case, then Readers should expect asymmetric Israeli responses to real or perceived provocations, comparable to Israeli responses to provocations by Hamas in Gaza.


Finally, if the Israeli leaders have decided to ramp up of capabilities and readiness in a way so as not to cause alarm as a contingency preparation for a war with Iran, this activation and its media cover story precisely match longstanding Israeli deception practices. The lameness of the public reasons for the reserve activations relative to the economic costs should raise red flags of vigilance that an Israeli deception operation is in effect.


Egypt: The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) chief of staff Lieutenant General Sami Annan said SCAF is considering handing over power on 24 May if a presidential candidate wins the first round of the election.


Comment: What this statement means is that the SCAF will not wait until June when the election winner is to be installed as President and it must transfer executive power. The Egyptian Army leadership seems to want to lower its profile and get out of the political cross hairs, otherwise there would seem to be little reason for the Army leaders to truncate a process they set up.

[Prem]

http://www.karavalitimes.com/archives/c ... iddle-east
US deploys F-22 fighter jets to UAE: officials

The United States has deployed sophisticated F-22 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates amid deepening tensions between Iran and its pro-US neighbors, officials said Monday.
The US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, would not say how many F-22s would be sent to the Al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates. Military officers tend to avoid publicly discussing details of operations at the US air base.
An Air Force spokeswoman confirmed that a number of F-22 Raptors, the most advanced fighter in the US fleet, would be deployed to the region without mentioning the base or Iran.
“The United States Air Force has deployed F-22s to Southwest Asia. Such deployments strengthen military-to-military relationships, promote sovereign and regional security, improve combined tactical air operations, and enhance interoperability of forces, equipment and procedures,” said Major Mary Danner-Jones.
Pentagon spokesman Captain John Kirby told reporters the move “was a very normal deployment” in keeping with an adjustment of US forces in the region following the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
Territorial disputes between Iran and the United Arab Emirates over three islands in the Gulf have flared recently, with Washington voicing support for Abu Dhabi’s stance.The argument over the Gulf islands comes against the backdrop of tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, with the US, European and Israeli governments fearing Tehran is pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons project.Iran’s atomic ambitions and growing missile arsenal have raised concerns in Gulf Arab states, which have negotiated arms deals with Washington to build up missile defenses as a counter to Iran.
In December, the United States announced a $3.48 billion arms sale with the United Arab Emirates for missile defense batteries and radars.

[Singha]

how much did kuwait suffer in the iraqi invasion to be skimming 5% every year 22 years hence? as I understand kuwait city which is their only major settlement was spared much damage, the kuwaiti army ran away at full speed to saudi border and the flared oilfields were restored and fires put out in around 9 months.

[shyamd]

There is more to it than that. Kuwait asked for the reparation money so that they can use the money on joint projects in Iraq to benefit the people. The Iraqis looted everything in Kuwait. The thing is Iraq has enough money to pay their debts but there is so much corruption and the pro Iranian groups in iraq are using it as propaganda to make out Kuwait is hitting Iraq while it is down.

Slowly now Arab Shias are now forming an alliance against Iranian influence in Iraq led by ayatollah sistani. Iran is trying to replace him. Will explain more tonight.

[shyamd]

My latest on the blog:

Regional Update - May 5th

Our first topic of discussion today is Syria:




Protests have been reported in most of the Damascus neighbourhoods and violence is generally increasing against the people.

It is likely Syrian operations will slowly switch to a safe zone where the regime will protect the minority Alawite population against genocide, ethinic cleansing. The system will attempt to sell this to the international media and the UN Security council. This is probably the final card that the regime will play before its demise.




King Abdullah had told Hillary Clinton in their meeting in late march that they won't intervene in Syria via money and arms until early May because they wanted to give the Annan plan a chance. But we are here today and the Annan plan has largely failed as the bloodshed still continues.

Iraq's Maliki has begun to ensure Asad's soldiers receives their payments by the end of April (no public information has been released yet as to Maliki's role in Syria) in addition to allowing Iran to funnel arms.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi


There appears to be a growing discontent in Iraq over the growing role of Iran's clerical establishment in politics and religious affairs. A slow alliance appears to be forming with Grand Ayatollah Sistani leading this coalition against the Iranian attempts. Tehran has attempted to push Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as an alternative to Sistani! It is incredibly difficult to replace Al Sistani and also a rather stupid move by Iran as it is bound to evoke a lot of anger from the ordinary Iraqi.


The Kurdish government will also be joining the anti Maliki grouping, there is now a renewed effort to remove Al Maliki. There is a possibility of protesters demonstrating against the Maliki government corruption and inability to provide improvement to basic services such as healthcare and most importantly electricity as was seen last year.

Israel and Iran Clash



What can we expect in the coming weeks?

Israeli escalations will continue in the coming days in the lead up to the meeting between the P5 + 1 and Iran. It is a fact that the Iranian concessions made as disclosed in the previous post was due to Israeli pressure and the unpredictability of the Israeli's.

What was interesting is that the Netanyahu had mentioned that 4 countries had made preparations for war against Iran. US, Britain and France are likely to be the main candidates.

Add this to the fact that polls show that the Israeli public opinion is that they want the Israeli government to conduct a pre-emptive strike against Iran.

AFP Link
"The poll, published in Haaretz newspaper, found that 65 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed with the statement that "the price Israel would have to pay for living with the threat of an Iranian bomb would be greater than the price it would pay for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities."

The recent report by the Israeli Defence and Security Committee in the Knesset said that if war broke out, it would encompass Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran against Israel. The report further stated that they strongly believe that the proportion of civilian casualties as a result of Katyusha rockets will be 300 - down from 500 of the previous estimate. But lets not forget that Hezbollah have been provided with SCUD - D missiles provided by the Syrian regime after the revolution started.

I am sure many of you must be wondering about the recent public statements of Yuval Diskin (Former Shin Bet Chief) and Meir Dagan and their criticisim of Netanyahu's positions on Iran. Most recently Ehud Olmert has joined this chorus against the Israeli leadership claiming that this war would be catastrophic for Israeli national security.

What do would an Iranian intelligence analyst be thinking after watching and reading the statements of these officials?

They would be highly suspicious as to whether this is an Israeli attempt at strategic deception that has been used for a long time against the Arabs. Why?
Netanyahu is getting so popular to the extent that he is considering calling early elections.

The Likud party appears to be consilidating its position in the government so that it is less susceptible to pressure from smaller parties especially Kadima. Barak will remain the chairman of the Labour party and his team is already in the government. What does all this mean? The government is united to face the Iranian nuclear threat. Could this explain the reason why the Iranian ambassador mentioned that Iran would be ready to implement additional protocols of the NPT allowing suprise IAEA team visits to Iranian nuclear sites.

Also notable is the UAE's claim that they can restore the 3 disputed islands to UAE control via military power if the political decision is made (made by Dubai Police Chief Dhahi Khalfan).Technically it is possible, but the GCC strategists will not do this due to the political cost of the operation. Seizing control of the 3 islands would mean that the Iranian people would unite behind the regime.

For example. on April 23rd in the Journal of Middle East Studies, Ataollah Mohajerani (a person who spent his life in various positions in the Iranian regime ) wrote an article entitled "Israel's attack on Iran: A moment of Irony or truth" in which he says that the Iranians will unite including reformers and supporters of the green movement if attacked because national security and independence of the state is more important than democracy.

What the gulf take away from this is that this will be the reaction of the Iranian people in the event of any clash - i.e. even the 3 islands issue.

UK ambassador to Israel: We're 'not naive' about Iran's nuclear program

Officials in London tell National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror that Iran might respond positively to Western demands over nuclear program.
By Barak Ravid Tags: Iran Iran nuclear UN Security Council

National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror visited London this week to discuss Iran, ahead of the second round of talks between the superpowers and the Islamic Republic to be held in Baghdad in three weeks.

British officials assured Amidror that the representatives of Germany and the five permanent members of the Security Council were "not naive" concerning Iran, but that there was a possibility Iran might respond positively to Western demands over its nuclear program. Amidror met his British counterpart Sir Kim Darroch, Foreign Secretary William Hague and senior Defense Ministry and intelligence officials.
Iran nuclear (AP)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits a nuclear facility.
Photo by: AP

"There were very intense discussions on Iran," Matthew Gould, Britain's ambassador to Israel, told Haaretz after taking part in the talks. "We compared notes about the negotiations approach, about how we continue to tighten sanctions and about the analysis of the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. The level of cooperation between the two countries is very high."

Amidror also held talks in Germany, and met in Brussels with Helga Schmid, senior advisor to European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is in charge of preparing the European position ahead of the Baghdad talks. Amidror stressed in all the meetings Israel's fear that the West would make too many concessions in its eagerness to strike an agreement. Israel is particularly worried that some of the sanctions imposed on Iran might be lifted.

'We're not naive'

"We are very clear, we are absolutely not naive about Iran's intentions and about Iran's negotiation tactics," said Gould. "The people in London who deal with this dossier have been dealing with Iran for years and years. Our representative in the talks is Jeffrey Adams who was our ambassador to Tehran. There is no naivete in our approach to these talks." Gould insisted that the superpowers "will not let Iran use those negotiations simply to buy time. These will not be open-ended negotiations and if Iran thinks it can just string those negotiations out to avert further pressure they are totally wrong."

Trying to calm Israeli fears, he said: "Iran will not get something for nothing. We will not be lifting sanctions simply because the atmosphere of the talks is constructive. Iran needs to come to the table with concrete proposals for how it can rebuild the trust of the international community. We will judge Iran by its actions and take our decisions accordingly. People who are worried that we are going to get carried away with a kind of negotiating warmth and that suddenly we will dismantle the sanctions regime don't need to worry." Iran, according to Gould, would have to take concrete steps to convince the West to set aside the oil embargo set to begin on July 1. "Iran must not think and Israel must not worry that just because we are talking the pressure is off Iran."

The ambassador added that despite Israeli skepticism, the negotiations route must be fully explored. "We all agree that a negotiated peaceful solution to this is better than the alternative," he said. "If this is the case, we need to at least keep the door open to the possibility that these talks might succeed. We need to be ready to take yes for an answer. I know there is concern in some quarters in Israel that the P5 +1 will give away all the leverage we have with the sanctions just to get an agreement. I think our record on this issue should give confidence that we are not trying to get an agreement just for the sake of an agreement."

[shyamd]

Watched one of the best panels today with Amos Yadlin (former IDF Military intelligence Chief), Dennis Ross (still advising Obama administration) and Robert Blackwill (former NSA for the US) on the Iranian/israel issue. Denis McDonough came in later for final speech and some questions at the end. Absolutely fantastic and highly informative for those interested in the issue.

Conference took place at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. They will upload the video on youtube soon.

[RajeshA]

Slowly now Arab Shias are now forming an alliance against Iranian influence in Iraq led by ayatollah sistani. Iran is trying to replace him. Will explain more tonight.

That is a welcome development if true.

I wrote a scenario some time back about this separation of Arab Shias from the Iranians.

[ramana]

It was removal of Saddam Hussein that gave Iran space to play inside Iraq. During the Iraq-Iran war of the 80s the Arab Shia did not support Iranians/Persians. However fall of Saddam removed that aversion to Iranian lead.

[ramana]

The recieved wisdom is that a nuclear armed Iran will be threat to India due to the 'n+1' country syndrome. The wisdom being the acquisition of nukes by 'n+1' country reduces the operating space for the 'n' countries which really are the P-5.

India should revist this axiom considering it is the 6th country which is status quo, has no Imperial ideas, no 'Out of Area' ops now or in future and is surrounded with two nuke armed neighbors and has two others in proximity to it (FSU and US in the waters). To make matters worse the US tries to depict India as a trouble maker while molly coddling the TSP and backing up PRC.

Iran is not surviving by Inddian oil purchases. While India needs Iranian oil to run the daily life. Removing Iranian oil for the market will drive up the price of oil and otehr oil is controlled by KSA and others who are under defacto US pawns.

In such circumustances is Iranian acquisiton of nukes such a bad thing for India? Its already threatened by so many and constantly big undermined by West.
So what benefits will India get that it should not have got?

[shyamd]

We told Israel in explicit terms - "We dont mind if Iran gets nuclear weapons".

[shyamd]

^^ Same message was delivered to HRC too.

Preparations underway for KRG to be absorbed into Turkey from Iraq. Some sort of agreement is in the offing. Turkey has altered its constitution to allow Turkish regions to cooperate with KRG.

No confidence motion will be put into parliament against Maliki. KRG plus sunni's are cooperating on this. Maliki is confident he will survive.

---------------------
Last week west got the lebanese to detain a ship filled with arms destined for the FSA paid for by the GCC. Dispute between the west and GCC on arming and funding FSA.

I think the latest plot that was found by the GSS (not by the CIA as the press is making out) is about Syria. Bargaining with the US to show concerns to KSA national security. Just like the last one in 2010 was about the 60bn dollar defence deal

[RajeshA]

shyamd ji,

KRG being absorbed into Turkey seems indeed to be a huge thing. Bit of a stretch there.

However considering the differing demographic expansion rates of Turks and Kurds, it could mean that in a few decades, the Kurds would become the majority in Turkey. With KRG coming in into Turkey, this process would only speed up.

It could also mean that that Kurdish knot would have broken, where each land was trying to stop the Kurds from getting independence. If KRG becomes part of Turkey, Iranian Kurdistan would be in play, and Western powers could try to tear up Iran using Kurdistan.

Published on May 06, 2012
By Palash R. Ghosh
A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?: IBTimes

The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 -- roughly the same as in western Europe.

The number of children produced by the average Turkish woman has plunged to two from three over just the past two decades, coincident with Turkey's rise as an economic power.

According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.

Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb -- Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country's impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.

In the 1930s, the Kurds constituted about 9 percent of the population of Turkey, and though they had higher birth rates than the Turks it still took until the 1990s until they reached the 18 percent level.

[shyamd]

Hi RajeshA ji

It remains to be seen as to whether it's just a threat. There is an O&G conference on may 20th with KRG PM and senior Turkish minister in erbil so we will hear big news then.

Kurds are going to checkmate Maliki by building their own pipeline into turkey so won't be reliant on Baghdad for payment.

I don't think US support the plan btw.

[Prem]

Hi RajeshA ji
ItI don't think US support the plan btw.

Kurds are playing smart game. They will be alligned with every one and none at the same time.
Exxon will need the pipe line to take the crude out of Kurdistan.

[shyamd]

Exxon will use the current pipeline as are the rest of the kurdish oil co's and use trucks to turkey when Baghdad stops paying. Exxon have promised not to drill until KRG and Baghdad resolve their problems. This position is acceptable to baghdad as Exxon has contracts in the south - west qurna. Ministry of Oil couldnt kick them out so kept them due to tech, so Baghdad are alright with Exxon promise not to drill in KRG blocks. Exxon will announce a buy out of one of the juniors there at some point. Total got disputed territory with KRG and Baghdad. All the majors are licking their lips at the huge amounts of oil being found in the region.

The KRG are busy smuggling oil via Iran. Incidentally Biden showed them the intel evidence on Barzani's recent visit to Washington.

Next stop after Kurdistan is east Africa - thankfully India has a bigger presence via OVL, Videocon, Bharat Petroleum etc.

RIL has a few blocks in kurdistan too.

[Prem]

shyamd
How big part is Baghadad playing in reducing Indian presence/ influence in Kurdistan. AFAIK, GOI is following One Iraq policy for the time being.

[shyamd]

None whatsoever ... India is a small player and is certainly not as big a player as it used to be in the saddam era. Indian ambassador visited Kurdistan and met all the key people earlier in the year. Iraqi ministers visited India to improve trade and there are no problems at all.

Iraq will be a major player in the region in the future and we have a good opportunity to partner with them and Iran

ONGC signed a partnership with ConocoPhillips for shale tech. This will be important to become self sufficient in oil and gas reducing our dependence on west Asian resources.

[shyamd]

US answer to everything at the moment is - no movement until after November elections. Same for Iran and Syria issue. Confirmed source's earlier view that Turkey wont act unless NATO involved. KSA recommended safe zone from Jisr Al Shingur that they can use to slowly win Aleppo. So Syria will fester on. But lets look back at history and see how long revolutions have taken, we expect quick results because we live in the world of TV.

US basically said they dont want any military action in Syria or against Iran until after elections. Israel still has given no guarantee that they wont strike Iran. Everyone is on Red alert. As you can see the largest coalition in history currently in Israel - unified position for the fall out of a strike.

But source yesterday confirmed no reapproachment on safe zone, financing/arming of refugees between Turkey and KSA. He said they have their plan we have ours.

Saad Hariri in KSA and Qatar complaining about post Asad situation and his role. Iran now using Iraq more than ever before and Iran is increasing relations with Maliki.

Latest suicide attack in Damascus targetting Intel HQ of Asad regime - coordinated - source hinted that GCC arms are still flowing (as revealed before via Jordan/Iraq border) despite western ordering lebanese to capture ship with arms for FSA.

Syria still trying to prevent defections which are still occurring particularly in Golan.

[Philip]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 4820.story

Israel's military looks to the sea
Israel buys a sixth German-made submarine. A navy officer explains why Israel's military is looking increasingly to the seas.

[Agnimitra]

Two killed in Sunni-Alawi sectarian clashes in Tripoli, Lebanon

[Prem]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 19915a.161
Iraq's Kurds deny hosting Mossad

ARBIL, Iraq — The government of Iraq's Kurdish region fired back on Saturday over allegations by Iranian diplomats and officials that Kurdistan was playing host to Israeli intelligence.Kurdish authorities described the claims, made in previous weeks, as "untrue", after Iran's consul in regional capital Arbil said Israeli spies were using Kurdistan as a base to work against neighbouring Iran."This is not the first time that Iranian officials are saying this without presenting evidence or reasons," the Kurdish regional government said in a statement."The government is not able to be quiet faced with these accusations anymore, so we confirm to the public there are no centres or offices of Israel in Kurdistan, and we deny this accusation."The statement continued: "It is untrue.""This is an attempt to draw Kurdistan into the fight between Israel and Iran, and we do not want to be part of this," it said.

[shyamd]

^^ lol everyone knows Mossad is tight with the KRG. They used to run a lot of operations but I think they have reduced due to problems with turkey.
----------------------
Breaking: Israel will transfer to the PA 100 bodies of Palestinian militants that were buried in Israel as a gesture for relaunching talks

[ramana]

A BBC blog on Bahrain and role of UK in creating the mess:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/

Also please note that one can change a few names and it looks like India, INC and IB!

Where the plot went wrong was 1962.

[RamaY]

ShyamD ji,

I was reading an editorial in a Telugu news paper about the hundreds of thousands of laborers who got stuck in ME living in inhumane conditions.

Any insight on what the GCC is willing/trying to do for these people? What are the perspectives from Indian side, given that we get >$25b/year remittances from this area and our energy security is dependent up on this area?

[shyamd]

RamaY ji, Can you give me a link from a credible source that supports your claim that "hundreds of thousands of labourers" are "stuck in inhumane" conditions all over the Middle East?

I'll answer your question after you provide me the link.

Thanks

[RamaY]

It was the Editorial in http://andhrajyothy.com/index.asp yesterday.

Will try to translate it for you.

Here it is in Telugu

[shyamd]

Thanks. Editorial is not something credible - you should know that. And you should follow this particular threads for the efforts that govts are putting in place. UAE is actually introducing centres in India to get rid of the fraudster agents in the recruitment role (does the article talk about their role in this and remind you that the fraud starts from India itself), provide training etc for the labour that they need from India.


---------------------------
Modi woos Muslim nations for 2013 investors’ meet

The Narendra Modi government seems to be keen on having Muslim nations as “partner countries” at the sixth edition of Vibrant Gujarat Global Investors’ Summit to be held in January 2013.

Highly placed sources in the state government said invitations have been sent to “many Muslim countries” to either partner or participate in the summit.

In the last two editions of the biennial summit, Japan and Canada were the partner countries.

“Formal invitations have been sent to the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Turkey and Indonesia for the event. A delegation of senior bureaucrats and industry leaders will be shortly visiting these countries,” a senior official from the industries department told The Indian Express.

“The chief minister is very keen to get a favorable response from Pakistan for the event,” said another official requesting anonymity.

The official said that in less then five months, two major Pakistani business delegations have visited the state, and Modi had welcomed them “very warmly”.

“In mid-December, office-bearers of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce met Modi at his Gandhinagar residence. The delegation not only invited Modi to Pakistan, but it also wanted him to address the corporate heads of Pakistan on the `Gujarat model’ of development through videoconferencing,” the official added.

Last month, a trade delegation led by senior vice-president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry Younus Muhammad Bashir Orawala had visited Surat.

During a national function of Indian Association of Tour Operators at Gandhinagar in September 2011, Modi had urged the Centre to relax visa process for Pakistani tourists wanting to visit Ajmer Sharif shrine in Rajasthan.

More evidence that the policies that the govt is pursuing will be done regardless of party in power.

[Hitesh]

Shyam,

Modi is doing this so he could establish his pro-Muslim credentials and show that he has no anti-Muslim bias as part of his post 2001 Godhra riots in an attempt to revitalize BJP and establish his leadership over BJP and become a very viable candidate for PM.

Realpolitiks at work here.

[shyamd]

Thats true but I dont think he needs to lobby the govt for things like providing more TSPians tourist visas to visit Ajmer and building links across the border - if he wants to make a point, I think increasing unity within Gujarat as he did earlier, does the job - then getting international recognition for his efforts by the so called 'islamic' nations would work fine.

I think what he is doing is just a continuation of govt policy.

-------------------------------------


Ajai Shukla: Bridging the gulf on Iran

Ajai Shukla / New Delhi May 15, 2012, 00:28 IST


Barely masked by the warm sunshine here in Washington on Mother’s Day is a stormy political mood over Iran’s defiant refusal to halt uranium enrichment despite the most far-reaching economic sanctions in recent times. That failure is being blamed partly on India, especially in the US media, for New Delhi’s refusal to terminate oil imports from Iran and its choice to, instead, deepen trade ties with Teheran. “Delhi is turning out to be the mullahs’ last best friend,” trumpeted the Wall Street Journal. With Team Obama’s political gaze focused on re-election in November, the White House fears that a pre-emptive military strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities might transform the discourse of the election campaign. (Yawn: Heard it somewhere before?)

That fear was fanned last Tuesday by the dramatic formation of a national unity government in Israel, when the leftist Kadima Party hopped over from the opposition to join Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud government. To American observers, the Israeli polity seems to be closing ranks for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel had formed a national unity government, in similar fashion, before launching the fateful Six Day War in 1956.

Washington has tried to restrain Israel by arguing that tightening sanctions would bring Iran around. But several countries, including India, make this a difficult argument to sell. India buys some 350,000 to 400,000 barrels of oil from Teheran every day, since our energy requirements do not allow the tap to be turned off suddenly. Although Iran’s share of our oil imports is just 10.4 per cent today, down from 16.5 per cent in 2008, that translates into a billion dollars a month for Teheran.

India, everyone admits, is not alone in importing oil from Iran. Teheran obtains greater support from Beijing and Moscow, especially in the UN Security Council. But given the media perception that New Delhi must constantly repay the debt of the US-India nuclear agreement, India’s oil purchases are portrayed as the most unkindest cut of all.

Interestingly, the US’ senior leadership does not share this media and think-tank obsession. Washington is displaying sensitivity to Iran’s role in the Indian strategic calculus: as an oil supplier; as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia; and as an emotional locus for Indian Shia Muslims. Washington knows that New Delhi does not want a nuclear Iran; India voted against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency twice, in 2005 and 2009. The US is also aware of Iran’s unrelenting assault over decades on crucial Indian interests, e.g. the Jammu & Kashmir issue, in bodies like the Organisation of Islamic Conference.

New Delhi has also pointed out that some four million Indians live and work in West Asia. A major regional conflict stemming from an attack on Iran could force India into a major evacuation, far larger than those that were necessary during the two US wars against Iraq (1990-91 and 2003) and during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon (2006).

And so Washington, for now, is not reacting to the media drumbeat that an ungrateful New Delhi is siding against Washington on a crucial foreign policy issue, just as it had on Libya and Syria. This reflects intensified conversations between New Delhi and Washington, and a growing maturity in the relationship. New Delhi has been understanding of America’s engagement and even arms supplies to Pakistan – surely a key Indian foreign policy concern – and now the US is accommodating India’s compulsions on Iran. Their strategic objectives converge: neither likes the idea of Teheran brandishing nukes. The divergence is on how that is best achieved.

New Delhi, with its own experience in beating sanctions in the quest for nuclear weapons, believes that coercion alone would only deepen Iranian determination. Alongside the spectre of economic disruption and military force, Iran must be offered a face-saving withdrawal through cast-iron security guarantees. Given America’s physical presence on both its flanks, Israeli sabre-rattling and the contemporary lessons of Iraq, Libya and Syria (in contrast to nuclear North Korea and Pakistan), it would be surprising if Teheran were not to conclude that nuclear weapons are the only guarantee of regime survival.

India can offer more than advice, howsoever sage. Negotiations with Iran are going nowhere, although the so-called P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members, plus Germany) will meet Iranian negotiators later this month. The ongoing process is based on mutual deception. Teheran is fighting a rearguard action to gain space for its nuclear weapons programme; meanwhile the P5+1 is arm-twisting Iran without addressing its core concerns. The technical issues of verification, inspection and relocation of nuclear fuel that are discussed upfront must be complemented with a back-channel process that addresses the key issue of Iranian insecurity. New Delhi, as the only agent that enjoys trust in all the key capitals – Teheran, Washington, Riyadh, Tel Aviv, Ankara and Moscow – must offer itself as a back-channel interlocutor. For years, New Delhi’s strategic policy of multi-alignment has built trust and equity in these countries. Stepping up to the plate would enhance Indian stature; cement relations with important regional and global powers; and defuse the threat of a confrontation that can only end in turmoil.

Some BS - some truth. Another article talking about India playing a back channel role.

Q&A: What options are left in Syria?

May 14, 2012 -- Updated 1932 GMT (0332 HKT)
Click to play


(CNN) -- A U.N.-backed peace plan that included a cease-fire deal was to take effect April 12 in Syria. Since then, violence has continued: Car bombings, reports of snipers and more than 1,000 killed -- some of them executed and tortured to death, according to opposition activists.

Syria has been mired in violence since March 2011, when President Bashar al-Assad's forces began cracking down on anti-government demonstrators.

Is the regime of al-Assad showing signs of cracking? What are possible avenues to stop the violence?

CNN's Tim Lister weighs in on what options the U.N. and the United States might have, the likelihood of a long bloody war and what everyday life is like for Syrians now.

The Annan peace plan is widely viewed as failing. What are next steps for the U.N.? What likely options do the U.S. and the West have in all of this?

Diplomats acknowledge that Kofi Annan's six-point plan has reached a critical stage. He is due to return to Damascus soon to seek adherence to the cease-fire -- warning that without progress there is a real danger that what is now a budding insurgency will become a full-scale civil war.

The U.N. Security Council has authorized 300 unarmed observers for a large country where the pattern of violence is unpredictable and movement difficult. Analysts who recall the Bosnian experience say a mission even 10 times that size would struggle to make an impact. As of Friday, there were 145 on the ground.

The opposition has always doubted the plan's viability, saying it can only work if backed by the threat of force against the regime. At a demonstration in Idlib province Friday, one slogan read "Annan Enough"; another "U.N. Go Out."

The United States was never optimistic about the Annan plan either, but it was the "only game in town." Writing in Foreign Policy last week, Salman Shaikh, a former U.N. official who is director of the Brookings Doha Center, said the premise of the plan was fatally flawed as it was based on the "misguided belief that the Assad regime will ever stop using violence against domestic protesters and negotiate with them in good faith."

There's not much that the U.S. or European powers can do to change the equation in the short-term, short of decisive intervention to support the rebels. That is unlikely to happen, partly because both the European and U.S. electorates have grown weary of foreign entanglements.

But there are practical impediments, too. In Libya, most regime targets were close to the Mediterranean coast and within easy reach of NATO air bases in Italy. Even so, NATO warplanes flew some 21,000 missions over nearly six months to enforce the no-fly zone. While no match for the best that NATO members could summon, Syrian armed forces are much better equipped and commanded than anything Moammar Gadhafi could muster.

So is it long to be a long and bloody war of attrition?

The signs are ominous, and such a conflict might begin spreading beyond Syria's borders.

Terje Roed-Larsen, the U.N. special envoy to the Middle East, said last week that arms were flowing between Lebanon and Syria.

"What we see across the region is a dance of death at the brink of the abyss of war," he said -- one reminiscent of the Lebanese civil war in the 1970s and 1980s that drew in surrounding states. The antagonisms in Syria between Sunni and Alawite communities are also played out in neighborhoods of Tripoli in northern Lebanon.

Two Lebanese killed in clashes Sunday

Syria has accused the Gulf states, and specifically Saudi Arabia and Qatar, of arming the opposition, after a ship carrying weapons and ammunition of Libyan origin was seized in Lebanese waters last week. Saudi officials rejected the charge.

Some Sunni tribal leaders in Iraq have signaled their support for the uprising and have begun providing some weapons across the long and leaky border between the two countries. One sheik told CNN in March he had sent more than $300,000 and hundreds of guns across the border.

Only Russia and Iran have influence on the al-Assad regime and neither is inclined to back it into a corner. For now, the regime's existence is not threatened in a military sense. It will continue to pursue a crackdown rather than entertain real dialogue, as demanded by the U.N. Security Council, whose Resolution 2043 called for a "comprehensive political dialogue between the Syrian government and the whole spectrum of the Syrian opposition."

Salman Shaikh says the regime has no incentive to stop the violence. "Doing so would hasten its demise, as Syrians took to the streets by the hundreds of thousands to protest freely and assume control of large parts of the country," Shaikh wrote in FP.

Until recently, the capital Damascus had rarely seen the sort of violence that some parts of the country had experienced. The recent bomb attacks have changed that. How strong is the regime's support in the capital city? Is the regime showing signs of buckling?

The Syrian regime does not wear its heart on its sleeve. Internal machinations rarely spill into public view. The inner circle is tightly knit, based on family associations strengthened through marriage and patronage. There are signs that some among the elite have tried to move assets abroad, but there are no signs of panic.

With Russian and Iranian support (and weapons from the former and "technical help" from the latter) the regime retains an overwhelming advantage in the military sense. It has hundreds of battle tanks; the Free Syrian Army has AK-47s. But remember that U.S. forces in Iraq also had an overwhelming advantage in firepower. That did not prevent a devastating campaign of bombings by al Qaeda and Sunni nationalist insurgents.

A similar campaign appears to have begun in earnest in Damascus, targeting military and intelligence facilities. There were several bomb attacks just last week, and Syrian security claims to have foiled a suicide bombing Friday. The risk to the regime is that if it cannot provide security for its supporters, their backing will ebb.

Like other Syrian cities, the capital is made up of districts and suburbs that to one degree or another are pro- or anti-Assad. The town of Douma, close to Damascus, saw large anti-regime protests last year and for a while came under the control of the Free Syrian Army. The regime then flushed out the rebels and Douma is now an area under virtual siege. When U.N. observers visited last week, protestors paraded the wounded in front of their vehicles.

Increasingly, Damascus appears to reflect the sectarian divisions that have flared elsewhere -- in Homs for example. The Alawite and Christian minorities, generally speaking, continue to support the regime for fear of the alternative: Sunni rule that would persecute them. Sunni areas by contrast (and the Sunni make up more than half the population) are often the bedrock of opposition to the al-Assad regime.

What is the state of the opposition? Since the unrest began, we've heard that there wasn't a united opposition as was the case in places such as Libya. Has that changed?

In Libya, the opposition had a stronghold in Benghazi, with an airport and seaport to bring in supplies. It certainly had divisions, and still does months after the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi. But it was able to operate freely because it had a base inside the country, and from an early stage liaised with an international "Friends of Libya" group that brought together the United States, European countries, Turkey and the Gulf states.

The Syrian opposition has been divided from the outset. An unwieldy Syrian National Council is based in Turkey, with Islamists and liberals having as much in common with each other as they do with the Assad regime. Western diplomats have long bemoaned the lack of purpose and unity in the SNC. Inside Syria it has no traction with influential clans and families.

Its leader, Burhan Ghalioun, is a Paris-based professor who has struggled to unify the 270-member council. In March, about 20 prominent members of the SNC decided to form the Syrian Patriotic Group with the aim of building closer ties to the rebels inside Syria.

Within Syria, Local Coordination Committees and the Free Syrian Army comprise the regime's real opponents, but there are tribes and minorities such as the Kurds, who are also influential. The FSA has little time for the exiled political leadership, rebuffing its recent attempts to coordinate military operations and funding.

In Libya, the rebels soon received anti-tank weapons and other hardware from the Gulf states, as well as getting protection from the no fly-zone enforced by NATO. The Syrian rebels have neither; even basic weaponry is hugely expensive. That also feeds division, because the Islamist factions tend to have more money for buying weapons.

What is everyday life like for Syrians?

All the signs are that it's becoming more and more difficult, with basics in short supply and many people in areas where there has been violence relying on charities and the Red Crescent for food and medical care. Inflation is rampant.

Syria expert Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma says a lack of finance means "authorities can no longer provide the basic commodities that have long been the central job of the government: providing grain and fuel."

The World Food Program said recently that nearly 1.5 million Syrians were deprived of basic supplies. And the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reported in March that Syria's domestic grain output fell 10% in 2011 and that it would need to raise its imports by about one-third this year. But a shortage of hard currency may make that difficult.

There are electricity shortages in many areas as fuel-oil becomes more scarce.

And the fabric of society is fraying in other ways. Aleppo University has closed its doors after security forces raided the campus in response to student protests. It's unclear whether it will re-open for final exams this month.

Landis writes on the Syria Comment blog: "It will only be the first of the universities to close. Most are trying to limp to the end of the academic year, but they will probably not be able to open in the fall. Students are becoming mobilized and radicalized."

Then there is the growing tide of internally displaced people who have fled their homes and the exodus of refugees now in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. The U.N. estimates that altogether one million Syrians are in need of assistance within the country, but there's been little progress in getting humanitarian aid to them, one of the provisions in Annan's plan.

[Austin]

India says it will cut Iran oil purchases by 11%

India said Tuesday it would cut purchases of Iranian oil by 11 percent following pressure from the United States to join a drive to isolate the Islamic republic over its disputed nuclear programme.

Indian refiners expect to import 15.5 million metric tons of crude from Iran in the fiscal year that began April 1, the country's junior oil minister told parliament in a written reply, down from 17.44 million tons last year.

US: Not impressed with India cuts of Iran oil imports

Carlos Pascual, the State Department's Special Envoy for International Energy Issues, said today the US was “not too impressed” by India’s attempts to cut its imports of oil from sanctions-ridden Iran, suggesting that “even more” was needed for Washington to consider further waivers for New Delhi from western financial sanctions.

As Iran’s second-biggest crude importer, India is crucial for the US plan to force Tehran into scaling down its nuclear program by crippling its economy with severe sanctions.

During her visit to India last week, US State Secretary Hillary Clinton called on India to step up its cuts in Iranian oil consumption before Washington could consider whether to exempt New Delhi from its oil ban for another two months.

[shyamd]

Thousands amass in Jordan for major military exercise

Editor's Note: Barbara Starr is in Amman, Jordan covering the Eager Lion 2012 exercise. Watch for her stories on CNN next week.

By Barbara Starr


U.S. Department of Defense photo
It couldn't come at a more delicate time in the Middle East. No one will say it publicly, but the Eager Lion 2012 exercise - and the 12,000 multinational forces gathering in Jordan - are sending a not-so-quiet message to others in the region: they are ready for whatever comes.

From now until the end of May, one of the largest multinational military exercises the region has seen is taking place in Jordan. There are more than 19 nations, including the United States and a number of Arab and European allies, gathering to practice their combat skills, just in case.

Several U.S. military officials say while it's not the primary intention, the exercise is meant to be noticed by Syria and Iran especially. The message: even with the United States out of Iraq, and winding up the war in Afghanistan, there is a formidable U.S. presence in the region, and other countries are capable of filling in the gaps.

The U.S. Navy already is keeping two aircraft carriers in the next-door Persian Gulf region, and stepping up the presence of minesweepers in those waters. The Air Force has sent half a dozen F-22 fighters to the United Arab Emirates. The Joint Special Operations Command has conducted several deadly drone strikes against al Qaeda in Yemen.

But Eager Lion is taking it one step further. Marines will train in southern Jordan on their amphibious landing and warfare skills. But there will also be a number of the most elite U.S. Special Operations troops, training with Jordanian special forces units in counterterrorism and other assault operations.

The exercise is part of the overall U.S. military strategy to support Jordan as that country grows increasingly concerned about the unrest across its northern border with Syria. Jordanian officials are especially concerned about the potential for Syria to forces tens of thousands of its Palestinian refugees into Jordan, as well as Syrians escaping the fighting.

There is concern in a worst case scenario that the Syrian regime could lose control of some of its chemical or biological weapons stocks and they could somehow illicitly come into Jordan.

So a major portion of the exercise will also be devoted to training together on dealing with refugee flows and managing a chemical or biological weapons crisis.

Officials quietly acknowledge all U.S. military training in the region now could be useful in the event of action against Iran. But officials strongly say Eager Lion is not aimed at either country, only at "realistic threats" in the region as one Pentagon official described it to CNN.

"Training events such as Eager Lion provide our forces with an opportunity to practice their language skills, immerse themselves in the culture, learn different tactics, techniques and procedures," Maj. Gen. Ken Tovo, head of the U.S. Special Operations Forces, said.

U.S. Special Operations Forces is expected to take on an increasing role in Middle East, both conducting drone operations in places including Yemen, but also emphasizing training with U.S. allies in the region's countries so they can take military actions when needed themselves.

Source confirmed message was to Syria.

[shyamd]

BR well ahead of the game as always

Syrian rebels get influx of arms with U.S. help

Karen DeYoung and Liz Sly
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Syrian rebels battling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have begun receiving significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, an effort paid for by Persian Gulf nations and coordinated in part by the United States, according to opposition activists and U.S. and foreign officials.

Obama administration officials emphasized that the United States is neither supplying nor funding the lethal material, which includes antitank weaponry. Instead, they said, the administration has expanded contacts with opposition military forces to provide the gulf nations with assessments of rebel credibility and command-and-control infrastructure.

“We are increasing our nonlethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, and we continue to coordinate our efforts with friends and allies in the region and beyond in order to have the biggest impact on what we are collectively doing,” said a senior State Department official, one of several U.S. and foreign government officials who discussed the evolving effort on the condition of anonymity.

The U.S. contacts with the rebel military and the information-sharing with gulf nations mark a shift in Obama administration policy as hopes dim for a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Many officials now consider an expanding military confrontation to be inevitable.

Material is being stockpiled in Damascus, in Idlib near the Turkish border and in Zabadani on the Lebanese border. Opposition activists who two months ago said the rebels were running out of ammunition said this week that the flow of weapons — most still bought on the black market in neighboring countries or from elements of the Syrian military — has significantly increased after a decision by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other gulf states to provide millions of dollars in funding each month.

Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood also said it has opened its own supply channel to the rebels, using resources from wealthy private individuals and money from gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, said Mulham al-Drobi, a member of the Brotherhood’s executive committee.

The new supplies reversed months of setbacks for the rebels that forced them to withdraw from their stronghold in the Baba Amr neighborhood of Homs and many other areas in Idlib and elsewhere.

“Large shipments have got through,” another opposition figure said. “Some areas are loaded with weapons.”

The effect of the new arms appeared evident in Monday’s clash between opposition and government forces over control of the rebel-held city of Rastan, near Homs. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said rebel forces who overran a government base had killed 23 Syrian soldiers.

Administration officials also held talks in Washington this week with a delegation of Kurds from sparsely populated eastern Syria, where little violence has occurred. The talks included discussion of what one U.S. official said remained the “theoretical” possibility of opening a second front against Assad’s forces that would compel him to move resources from the west.

Syria will also be on the agenda at this weekend’s NATO summit in Chicago, according to administration officials.

Although the alliance has repeatedly said it will not become involved in Syria, Turkey has indicated that it may invoke Article IV of the NATO Charter, which would open the door to consultations on threats to Turkish security and consideration of mutual defense provisions of Article V of the charter.

Last month, after Syrian forces fatally shot four fleeing Syrians who had crossed into Turkey, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that under Article V, “NATO has responsibilities to protect the Turkish border.”

The Turks, who have grown increasingly anxious about the growing conflict in their neighboring country, have resisted direct military involvement without the international legitimacy of a United Nations Security Council resolution. Efforts to pass a resolution authorizing any intervention beyond humanitarian aid have been blocked by opposition from Russia and China.

But Turkey’s position has been evolving, with military officials who once opposed any kind of non-political intervention now seeing the region becoming increasingly involved in the crisis. Shiites and Sunnis in neighboring Lebanon battled this week over the Syrian situation, raising concern both in Ankara and Washington.

Officials in the region said that Turkey’s main concern is where the United States stands, and whether it and others will support armed protection for a safe zone along the border or back other options that have been discussed.

The United States and its allies remain formally committed to a U.N. peace plan being spearheaded by former secretary general Kofi Annan. Nearly two-thirds of an authorized 300 unarmed U.N. military monitors have arrived in Syria, with the rest due by the end of this month.

But even Annan has acknowledged the initiative has failed so far to significantly quell the violence or make progress toward a political transition. U.S. officials have said they feel constrained from declaring the mission a failure, at least until the full complement of monitors arrives. Annan himself has expressed pessimism over prospects for success.

Opposition figures said they have been in direct contact with State Department officials to designate worthy rebel recipients of arms and pinpoint locations for stockpiles, but U.S. officials said that there currently are no military or intelligence personnel on the ground in Syria.

The Pentagon has prepared options for Syria extending all the way to air assaults to destroy the nation’s air defenses. U.S. officials, however, have said that such involvement remains very unlikely. Instead, they said, the United States and others are moving forward toward increased coordination of intelligence and arming for the rebel forces.

The Sunni-led gulf states, which would see the fall of Assad as a blow against Shiite Iran, would welcome such assistance, but they would like a more formal approach. One gulf official described the Obama administration’s gradual evolution from an initial refusal to consider any action outside the political realm to a current position falling “between ‘here’s what we need to do’ and ‘we’re doing it.’”

“Various people are hoping that the U.S. will step up its efforts to undermine or confront the Syrian regime,” the gulf official said. “We want them to get rid” of Assad.

Since the uprising began early last year, U.S. efforts to promote a political solution have been stymied by Assad’s political intransigence and his ongoing military assault on Syrian towns and cities, as well as the opposition’s failure to agree on a unified political leadership or game plan.

Despite administration hopes that the Sunni-led Syrian National Congress would become an umbrella organization, it has failed to win support from minority Syrian Christians, Kurds, Druze and Assad’s Alawite sect. All have resisted what they say is the group’s domination by the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Free Syrian Army, the opposition military force, has resisted direction from the fractured political opposition. Its troops, many of them Syrian army defectors, are said to operate in independent entities spread across Syria, leading the United States and others in the past to express caution about assisting them.

[ramana]

So recent dhamaka in Damascus is US facilitated one?