Bharat Rakshak

For RajeshA ji - The israeli military intelligence chief said a few days ago that Israel wants an autonomous alawite state and an independent Kurdistan!

T]here is some comfort in the fact that the Egyptian military lacks the same incentives and circumstances that have driven Pakistani politics. Historically speaking, Egypt has never faced substantial threats to its sovereignty or existence, and has not been defined by a narrative centered on fears of an external enemy. Of course, Egypt has had tensions with its neighbors, such as its ‘cold peace’ with Israel and a vacillating relationship with Libya, but its ties with both countries have improved over time. It also benefits from a more ethnically and culturally homogenous population and a more secure border situation than Pakistan. With Egypt’s external threat perception less of a burden, the military’s incentives to manipulate the political process should be expected to differ from those of the Pakistani military.

New Delhi, Jan. 31: The navies of India and the UK today shared concerns over the security of the Suez Canal — through which much of India’s trade passes — as protests roiled Egypt for the seventh consecutive day.

“It has dominated discussions and of course there is a realisation that Egypt earns much of its income from it (the Suez Canal) and it would not like that damaged, but then rationale is lost in a revolution,” the UK’s First Sea Lord and chief of naval staff, Adm. Mark Stanhope, said after a meeting with India’s chief of naval staff, Adm. Nirmal Verma, here.

“We, as military men, have to be looking at these (developments in Egypt) seriously. I can see doomsday scenarios. I don’t know about solutions. Yesterday, they flew fighter jets over their own people. The Suez Canal is vital and Egypt makes millions of dollars every day from it but when rationale is lost, it is like cutting the nose to spite the face,” the UK navy chief said.

Adm. Stanhope met defence minister A.K. Antony later in the day.

The protests in Egypt, in defiance of the curfew imposed by Hosni Mubarak’s tottering regime, are being viewed with concern across the world for many reasons. One of these is the waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea through which 35 per cent of world trade passes.

Information with the Indian Navy, that has an anti-piracy patrol to escort merchant vessels east of the Suez, suggests that traffic through the canal has been normal so far. About 40 to 50 ships were sailing up and down the 190km strategic waterway.

But the staff of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), the Egyptian government body that administers the canal, are leaving work early to comply with the curfew. This could mean that handling of vessels could get slower.

Under an international agreement, all commercial and military ships, irrespective of flag, can use the Suez Canal on payment of fees to the SCA. Egypt earned nearly $5 billion last year in receipts from shipping traffic.

There were also concerns in the Indian establishment over Indian businesses being hurt by the unrest in Egypt. In October 2009, Egypt offered India land in the Suez Canal Development Area for an industrial zone that would house Indian firms and joint ventures. India was the first country to which such an offer was made.

India has nearly $800 million of investments in more than 40 projects in Egypt. Among these are Alexandria Carbon Black (ACB) set up by Grasim India with a local partner, an acrylic fibre plant —Alexandria Fibre Co — of the Aditya Birla Group, and a joint venture between Asian Paints and the Orascom Group.

The Oberoi Group helps manage a hotel near the pyramids of Giza, and runs cruises on the Nile.

Rajesh Bhai, Kanha ho tum ? I might visit Aryavarat next month via your Aryadesh to make that soil pavitar with my feet on ground for few hours.

DEBKAfile Special Report February 13, 2012, 3:55 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Al Qaeda Bashar Assad Iraq Saudi Arabia Sunnis

Syria frees al Qaeda mastermind Abu Mus’ab al-Suri
Saudi rulers, seeing Bashar Assad on the verge of defeating the opposition to his rule, are reported by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources as taking a hand in turning al Qaeda Iraqi cells loose against him. Saudi agents used their pull with Iraqi Sunnis to persuade al Qaeda leaders that Assad and his Alawite regime were their most dangerous foe.
The same message was also broadcast by their Pakistan-based leader Ayman al Zuweiri.
Al Qaeda strength was fast building up in Syria, say US intelligence agencies tracking the jihadists’ Middle East movements – ten days before Zawahri Sunday, Feb. 11 issued his videotaped instruction to all combat strength in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to converge on the Syrian battlefield.
Monday, Iraq’s acting interior minister Adnan al-Assadi confirmed that “a number of jihadists had gone to Syria,” reporting also that the price of weapons in Mosul had risen because they were being sent to the opposition in Syria “from Baghdad to Nineveh [province].”
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources estimate that the bulk of the 1,500-strong Iraq-based al Qaeda network– Syrians, Egyptians, Libyans, Mauritanians, Pakistanis, Lebanese and Palestinians – have headed to Syria. This accounts for the sharp drop in terrorist attacks inside Iraq
The jihadists are making it across, despite nightly battles with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malik forces, whom Tehran has ordered block their passage, and with Syrian border guards on the other side.
The newly-arrived al Qaeda cells were almost certainly behind the Aleppo car bombings Friday, Feb. 10, which claimed the lies of 28 people, most security officials, and injured more than 200.
After virtually crushing most of the pockets of resistance to his rule, the Syrian ruler may well find himself up against the new threat of jihadist terror. After battling American troops for nine year, Al Qaeda in Iraq will not be easy to vanquish.
Ironically, they infiltrated Iraq from Syria across same border they are now breaching in the opposite direction. After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Assad regime gave al Qaeda forward bases and charged a fee of $10,000 or more for each individual crossing into Iraq with Syrian security cover.
Al Qaeda terrorists are therefore familiar with Assad’s security forces’ methods of operation and terrain and know how to elude them. Even when the Assad regime and al Qaeda were in close cahoots against the US war effort in Iraq, the Islamists kept the secrets of their hideouts and training centers from the knowledge of Syrian security and military intelligence. They can now make a beeline for their old clandestine haunts, our counter-terror sources report, for surprise assaults on their former allies.
In this regard, Assad and his intelligence advisers blundered badly when they decided to release the noted al Qaeda theoretician and strategist Abu Mus’ab al-Suri (real name Mustafa Abdul-Qadir). Born in Aleppo, he fought the Assads for more than three decades. Yet he was freed for two reasons:
1. Abu Mus’ab is Al-Zawahri ideological and tactical opponent and rival. The Syrians counted on him heading for Iraq and countermanding his antagonist’s directives to move jihadist strength into Syria. But now they have lost him. His whereabouts are unknown.
2. Assad had a score to settle with Britain for backing the opposition to his rule. Abu Mus’ab was the mastermind of the July 7, 2005 terrorist attacks on London’s transport system and 52 deaths, as well as the Madrid train bombings of March 11, 2004 which left 191 dead. The Syrian ruler had hoped that on the loose, Abu Mus’ab would start a fresh wave of bombing attacks in the UK. There is a $5 million US bounty on his head. His encyclopedia “Call for Global Islamic Resistance has been a template for jihadists.
Neither of Assad’s calculations was borne out. He now fears that one his most dedicated foes will now be gunning for him.
In his videotape statement, Al Zawahri ordered the mobilization of al Qaeda strength across the Middle East: “Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day and the butcher isn’t deterred and doesn’t stop,” he said Sunday. “However, the resistance of our people in Syria is escalating and growing…”
Riyadh, even after giving Syria’s Sunni-led opposition arms and funding to stiffen their resistance to the regime, sees them falling back in the face of brutal military massacres. Turning to their Sunni friends in Iraq, Saudi agents asked them to convince al Qaeda leaders to make Syria their primary warfront and Alawite Bashar Assad’s overthrow their first priority - before even the ouster of Shiite Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad.
They argued that Assad’s survival would strengthen Iran’s and the Shiites’ grip on Baghdad, whereas his removal would weaken both their enemies.
Riyadh therefore laid on the money, logistics and arms for al Qaeda’s transfer from Iraq to Syria in the hope of energizing the flagging anti-Assad opposition’s struggle. Finally, after eleven months, Syrian dissidents find themselves sharing a broad base of operations with Muslim (Turkish), Arab, al Qaeda and Western allies.
Earlier fears in Washington that Iran would mobilize al Qaeda against American targets have been turned aside by Saudi Arabia getting in first to enlist the Islamist jihads against the pro-Iranian Syrian regime.

Got a good picture of the intel operations supporting the Syrian "revolution".

Israel are running their own operations supporting the FSA. Turkey are running theirs from Turkey. Jordan and Gulf mixed with western intel are running their intel/logistical/financial support from Iraqi sunni tribal areas.

He confirmed that Hezbollah are preparing for operations on Israel's borders. The aim of Iran is to spend of Israeli hardware destined for war on Iran.

We were talking about the whole situation and comparing to Mamluk's. He agreed and said that earlier it was like the Mongols that were encircling the Mamluk's.

Kuwaiti "relief funds" are set up and are getting ready to enter Syria soon.

By GHAZANFAR ALI KHAN | ARAB NEWS
Published: Feb 14, 2012 02:51 Updated: Feb 14, 2012 03:13

RIYADH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah held wide-ranging talks with Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony here Monday.

The talks focused on "a range of bilateral and regional issues” of common concern with special reference to defense cooperation between the two countries.

"The talks with King Abdullah covered several bilateral topics ranging from economy to politics and defense cooperation," said Antony, adding that he was "extremely happy and privileged" to meet the king. The talks were attended by Prince Salman, minister of defense, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, minister of foreign affairs, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, minister of state and commander of the National Guard, and Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah, deputy minister of foreign affairs.

The Indian officials present at the talks with Antony were Indian Ambassador Hamid Ali Rao, Defense Secretary Shashi K. Sharma, Vice Chief of Army Staff S. K. Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal M. R. Pawar. Analysts view this first ever visit by the Indian defense minister with a team of senior army, air force and naval officers as a very important development in view the Middle East facing new challenges.

Antony told reporters, after his meeting with the king, that he would be holding comprehensive talks on defense matters with Prince Salman on Tuesday. He pointed out that Riyadh and New Delhi are witnessing "rapidly growing relations" in the fields of politics, economy, energy and many more sectors. "The Middle East region is important for us," said Antony, while expressing his solidarity with the Kingdom and India's hope for peace and stability in the region.

Antony stressed the need for closer cooperation in defense as Saudi Arabia and India are on the verge of a significant long-range partnership. The international community will have to jointly fight the menace of terrorism, which is of "grave concern to global peace and stability."

Saudi Arabia and India agreed on Tuesday to set up a joint panel that will be entrusted with the task of preparing a road map for defense cooperation and to work out details of a proposed defense pact to be signed later in Riyadh.

This joint committee will also prepare a draft agreement to be endorsed by Riyadh and New Delhi in the field of hydrography, said A.K. Antony, Indian defense minister, after holding wide-ranging talks with Minister of Defense Prince Salman.

Antony said: "Prince Salman and myself agreed to establish a joint committee to work out the details of our future defense cooperation, including the details of an agreement in the defense sector."

He added the two sides were planning to conduct joint exercises involving Saudi and Indian armed forces, ship visits from both sides and to work closely to combat sea piracy. "There will also be high-level visits from both sides," he added.

"I had one-to-one talks with Prince Salman first and then we had a detailed delegation-level meeting," said Antony, adding Prince Salman has agreed to visit New Delhi later this year.

The Indian defense minister said an agreement on all issues will be "reached during the visit of Prince Salman to India and I am also hopeful that the agreement on defense cooperation will also be signed at that time."

He, however, said the specific details of the two agreements would be worked out at diplomatic levels.

The talks were also attended by top Saudi officials, including Prince Khaled bin Sultan, deputy minister of defense.

Indian Ambassador Hamid Ali Rao, Defence Secretary Shashi K. Sharma, Vice Chief of Army Staff S.K. Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Admiral Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal M.R. Pawar attended the meeting from the Indian side. Prince Khaled hosted a luncheon for the visiting Indian minister at the Conference Palace on Tuesday.

Spelling out details of his meeting with Prince Salman, Antony said Riyadh and New Delhi would work together in the area of hydrography. Potential areas of cooperation in this field include exchange of information, nautical cartography and hydrographic surveys of important coastal areas, ports, harbors and designated sea areas. "We are also examining the possibility of entering into an agreement in this field," said the Indian minister, adding there will be substantial expansion in cooperation in the area of training.

Both sides will send their respective defense officers to so they can get to know each other and to join training programs, he added.

Antony pointed out the two countries have agreed "to explore the possibility of working together in the area of defense production." To this end, he noted the defense officials of Saudi Arabia will visit India and Indian defense personnel will also come to the Kingdom to see the defense production facilities for themselves and to map out areas of cooperation in defense production.

India is keen to boost its domestic production of defense equipment and warfare tools. Antony himself introduced the first defense production policy of India last year in a bid to significantly reduce New Delhi's dependence on defense imports, encourage private players and manufacture world class indigenous defense products. Asked about reports that India will be building a mountain warfare training school in Saudi Arabia, Antony said all issues will now be looked into by the joint committee.

He, however, did not provide details of the composition of the joint panel. He said: "The joint panel will try to work out an action plan for future cooperation in all fields." However, it is important to note that the Indian army is among the most experienced in the world in mountain warfare. The Indian soldiers have fought several wars and skirmishes in the most inhospitable mountain territories in the past. Hence, this can be a potential area for mutual cooperation between Riyadh and New Delhi.

On the question of sea piracy, he said the joint panel would work out details as how to handle sea piracy in the Gulf of Aden and waters of the Indian subcontinent and its extended neighborhood. “This is a major concern,” said Antony.

With naval patrolling getting tighter in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, which was previously notorious for pirate activities, the pirates now move to India's Lakshadweep Islands in the Indian Ocean. The two sides, hence, reviewed the security situation, said Antony. He said the current situation in the Gulf region is a cause for great concern for India and he hoped the crisis in the region would be resolved through peaceful dialogue.

He said the Gulf region is of immense importance in India's foreign policy. It provides more than half of India’s oil imports, said Antony. The region is perhaps the largest trading partner of India with total two-way trade reaching $130 billion in 2010-11, the minister said while speaking on Indo-Saudi relations. Hence, India would like to raise the profile of bilateral relations further, he said.

He said the Saudi side had also expressed their keen interest to boost relations further with India in all fields following the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah. On other subjects taken up for discussions with Saudi officials, he said Prince Salman commended the contributions of Indian scholars in different fields. Prince Salman also fondly recalled the first visit of Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to Saudi Arabia and the late King Saud to India, said Antony.

Prince Salman also highlighted the visit of King Abdullah to India in 2006 that led to the strengthening of partnerships between the two countries. Saudi Arabia also offered additional crude supplies to India, an Indian government statement said on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil supplier to India, the world’s fourth biggest oil consumer. Indian refiners are currently scouting for supplies to gradually replace oil from Western sanctions-hit Iran.

Referring to his talks with Saudi officials, Antony reiterated that his discussions with Prince Salman and Prince Khaled would lead to specific initiatives to deepen defense exchanges for the benefit of both countries.

Earlier on Monday night, while addressing the Indian community, Antony described the Kingdom as an important strategic partner of India in the region. He said over 6 million Indians live and work in the region and the Indian government appreciates the assistance of their host governments toward their safety and well-being.

Talking about India’s economic successes, he said this has been achieved within the framework of India’s democratic and secular order. “In this order, every Indian enjoys freedom to pursue his beliefs and aspirations and has rights to ensure he can realize his dreams with the assurance that the state will protect his unique identity and individuality," said the Indian defense minister.

Antony, who wrapped up his two-day visit to Riyadh Tuesday evening, said India is working closely with all countries in the Gulf region in a coordinated manner to combat terrorism and for anti-piracy measures.

Antony expressed confidence that his visit will give a “new substance and direction” to Indo-Saudi defense ties, which constitute an important component of the emerging strategic partnership between the two countries.

- We have CIJW facilities in the Kingdom since early last year - being kept secret.

Why do Saudi's need Jungle Warfare training? Do they have forests on their border with Yemen?

why is India training Saudi Ghazis in mountain warfare?!?! what great secularist purpose does this serve?

Both have same aims. Exercises - see what I can do. They see what we can do. Schools - they tell us how they approach a situation, we teach them how we approach them. We are the best in the world at mountain warfare.

Besides - its more about reducing their need for pak.

- Grand welcome for defence minister in Riyadh

SUJAN DUTTA

Saudi deputy defence minister Prince Khalid Bin Sultan (left) with Antony in Riyadh on Tuesday. (PTI)
New Delhi, Feb. 15: As defence minister A.K. Antony’s Brazil-made Embraer Legacy jet flew over the Arabian Sea on Monday afternoon, the captain relayed a message to his VIP passenger: The King of Saudi Arabia invites you to the palace of the House of Saud in Riyadh.

Strangely enough, at a time India-Iran ties are being questioned by Israel after the attack on its diplomat in Delhi, the defence minister’s pre-scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia is likely to have a marked bearing on India-West Asia relations.

India and Iran, which also used military hardware of Soviet vintage, have had many years of defence ties but those have been waning in the past five years. India-Saudi Arabia defence relations have been practically non-existent. “But now the foundations have been laid and things are going to change very fast,” a defence ministry official said after Antony returned last night.

Antony is the first Indian defence minister to have visited Saudi Arabia at the head of an official delegation. As an ice-breaker event, it was expected to be important. But even by those standards, the exceptional invite from King Abdullah — that was not on the defence minister’s schedule — carried with it an unstated message from Riyadh to New Delhi.

In decoding that message, defence ministry officials are finding that India has just found an opportunity to open its door to the Arab worldwider. But New Delhi has to tiptoe into the politics and the tumult that cuts an arc from Pakistan to the Mediterranean or get sucked into volatile environments with immediate impacts on both its diaspora and its energy demands.

Antony was received at the royal palace in Riyadh almost immediately after landing by the king himself. “That was a grand gesture. He had just been through a spinal surgery and standing must have been very difficult for him,” a ministry official who was in the delegation said.

India and Saudi Arabia agreed in the meeting that followed the next day between Antony and his counterpart, Prince Salman Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, that they would set up a Joint Committee on Defence Co-operation, which would lead to the signing of a memorandum of understanding.

Antony offered Indian naval hydrographic expertise, which Riyadh immediately accepted, the official said. This means that the Indian Navy may find itself exploring the seabed of the Persian Gulf and the North Arabian Sea in assignments that are largely undertaken by only the US and the Iranians. The Gulf itself is now tension-ridden with Iranian navy in drills at its mouth in the Strait of Hormuz, even threatening to blockade it.

The ministry official said Saudi Arabia was also interested in joint military training. This is a little surprising because significant elements of the Saudi armed forces train in Pakistan and citizens of Pakistani origin even serve in the Saudi military. Riyadh could now be doubting if Pakistan’s military infrastructure, emasculated and often conflicted within itself, can continue to extend the kind of support it has done for much longer, the official said.

The Saudis are also understood to have conveyed to Antony that the quota of oil supplies to India could be expanded if New Delhi and Riyadh worked on it. This assurance apparently came from the king himself. India imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia. Iran is the next biggest supplier.

But largely Shiite Iran — with whom largely Sunni Saudi Arabia has a tenuous relationship at best — is beginning to find that its ties with India are getting severely tested.

Antony was leading high-powered delegation that included the Vice Chief of Army Staff, Lt General S.K. Singh, defence secretary Shashi Kant Sharma, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Satish Soni, and Indian ambassador Hamid Ali Rao.

Chaos: The new 'status quo'

by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Ha'aretz
February 17, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3174/chaos-status-quo


One year after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as president of Egypt, what conclusions can we draw regarding the ongoing wave of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa?

Around this time last year at the Herzliya Conference, the Israeli historian Prof. Martin Kramer lambasted the Obama administration for taking the view that the "status quo" in the region was no longer sustainable, and even went so far as to accuse the U.S. government of "throwing Mubarak under the bus."

Yet Kramer's critique was off the mark even then, for the fact is that the "status quo" - that is, the apparently stable order imposed by strongmen that prevailed in the Middle East and North Africa prior to the outbreak of the so-called "Arab Spring" - was never sustainable. The unrest that has come upon and now characterizes the region can be compared to a tidal wave: It is simply unstoppable.

As Oskar Svadkovsky pointed out to me, the United States could no more have saved Mubarak than President Nicolas Sarkozy could have saved the former Tunisian dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, whom the French government was eager to see retain power even as mass protests erupted in Tunisia. By promulgating the notion that the Obama administration threw Mubarak "under the bus," Kramer was inadvertently echoing the thoughts and intellectual legacy of a scholar whom he rightly took to task in his book "Ivory Towers on Sand": Edward Said.

The writings of Said - especially his best-known book, "Orientalism" - have unfortunately disseminated a patronizing view that in the Arab world, responsibility both for what goes wrong and for setting things right rests on the shoulders of Western powers.

What led to Mubarak's resignation in Egypt was not that the U.S. government had somehow abandoned him, but rather that the military, feeling the heat of mass protests, carried out a de facto coup. The same is true of Ben Ali in Tunisia, although there the military has now chosen to withdraw from politics.

In any case, a widespread problem with analysis of current developments in the Arab world is a tendency to impose false dichotomies. For instance, on the subject of Egypt's future, too much ink has been wasted on asking whether that country will emerge as a full-blown Islamist state or a healthy democracy. In fact, it is time to appreciate that a new norm will be dominating the region: chaos. Too often, commentators overlook demography, economy, tribal affiliations and climate change in their assessments of current and likely future trends.

For example, in Egypt, the ongoing protests in Tahrir Square have brought the economy to a grinding halt. Besides considerable decreases in tourism revenue and deleterious labor strikes, Bedouin tribes are stirring up trouble in Sinai, having taken over the Aqua Sun holiday resort - once a favorite destination for Israelis - at the end of last month with demands for a ransom of $660,000.

More generally, with a rapidly growing population of over 80 million, huddled around the Nile in an area that is only some 2.5 times the size of Israel, and with sharp divisions among political parties regarding how to solve the economic crisis facing the nation - Egyptians will continue to be quick to anger, having realized that the overthrow of Mubarak has led to no real improvement in quality of life, triggering a vicious cycle of further unrest. Likewise, few have noticed that Syria looks set to face a Malthusian-style collapse in the event of the fall of Bashar Assad's regime. The Sunni heartland is likely to succumb to the demographic and environmental pressures that helped trigger the uprising in the first place.

A traditionally pro-natalist policy on the part of the government has meant that the tribally dominated peripheries of Syria in particular have witnessed rapid population growth, especially among the armed tribes of Deir ez Zor, which contains most of Syria's dwindling oil reserves.

With Assad gone, these tribes will surely demand their fair share of oil revenues, potentially triggering another "periphery versus center" conflict like those that have characterized much of this country's uprising so far, or leaving the rest of Syria with less to spend on itself - above all as regards net importation of petroleum and oil products.

In addition, the suburban slums of Syria's major cities are teeming with hundreds of thousands of displaced migrants, owing to climate change and severe water shortages, with 500,000 people displaced from areas inhabited by the Inezi tribe in eastern Syria because of drought caused by shifts in rainfall patterns.

In 2007-8, 160 villages in northern Syria were abandoned for the same reasons. All this significantly increases the possibility that the country will fall apart once Assad goes, especially when one factors in sectarian tensions that have plagued cities like Homs.

For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing. It means that the Islamists and other hostile forces will be too distracted by infighting to focus any attention on fighting Israel. As for policy, Israel need only adopt a strong deterrence strategy. That is, to issue a stern warning that any foreign aggression will be met with severe retaliation, and act on such a warning should such aggression arise. Deterrence, however, must be consistent, as Grayson Levy once pointed out to me, because what Daniel Pipes terms mere "episodic shows of force" create the impression that Israel is in a state of panic.


In the meantime, we must accept that chaos will be the main trend in the region for quite some time, rather than constantly fret over false "liberal democracy vs. Islamist theocracy" dichotomies.

Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an adjunct Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Shyamji

Thanks for your response.

I still have some doubts about getting closer to SA.

(1)SA is the main exporter of Wahhabism including Indian subcontinent. Wahhabism will create serious problems for us in long term.

(2)Is SA trying to wean us away from Iran? We need oil from both countries.

(3)Why allow SA to inspect our missiles facilities? How can we be sure that they would not pass any sensitive information to Pakis?

(4)Why should SA be interested in any Indian military assistance when they can get the best equipment from USA? What could we sell them under defence pact?

(5)What effect this would have on our relationship with Israel and Iran?

(6)Wouldn’t it be better to get Japanese money & technology (hopefully with no strings attached) for our infrastructure development rather than Wahhabi petro-dollars (which will create more mosques & madrassas in India?

In the meantime, we must accept that chaos will be the main trend in the region for quite some time, rather than constantly fret over false "liberal democracy vs. Islamist theocracy" dichotomies.

Shyamji

Thanks for your response.

I still have some doubts about getting closer to SA.

(1)SA is the main exporter of Wahhabism including Indian subcontinent. Wahhabism will create serious problems for us in long term.

(2)Is SA trying to wean us away from Iran? We need oil from both countries.

(3)Why allow SA to inspect our missiles facilities? How can we be sure that they would not pass any sensitive information to Pakis?

(4)Why should SA be interested in any Indian military assistance when they can get the best equipment from USA? What could we sell them under defence pact?

(5)What effect this would have on our relationship with Israel and Iran?

(6)Wouldn’t it be better to get Japanese money & technology (hopefully with no strings attached) for our infrastructure development rather than Wahhabi petro-dollars (which will create more mosques & madrassas in India?

The agreements that emerged at the end of the two-day visit to the Kingdom this week by Indian Defense Minister A. K. Antony, signal the growing importance of both countries to each other.

India’s thriving economy needs Saudi oil to offset its diminishing liftings from Iran. Likewise, Indian business wants to boost its exports to the Kingdom, not least winning orders as part of the Saudi drive to build major new infrastructure and grow a flourishing nonoil based economic sector. Indian trade with the GCC now tops $130 billion and more than six million Indian citizens live and work in the region, two million of them in the Kingdom. For Saudi Arabia, closer cooperation with New Delhi, particularly in military terms, makes sense in a wider region still beset with instability.

Formalizing closer relations actually reflects a reality of increasing trade links that were given real impetus by the 2006 visit of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah to India, with a large official party, including leading Saud businessmen and investors. They were further boosted with the return visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2010.

It would, however, be wrong for anyone to imagine that a growing Saudi relationship, even a military one, means that Saudi relations with Pakistan are going to be diminished. It does not have to work that way — and Saudi Arabia certainly does not see it that way. There is no reason therefore why anyone in Pakistan should worry about India’s emergence as a Saudi partner. The Saudi government is friends with both and pursues a very balanced and positive policy toward both. Indeed, Saudi Arabia has long supported increased dialogue between Islamabad and New Delhi and promoted a settlement of their historic differences. If anything, the Kingdom’s drawing closer to India may actually have a positive impact on the relationship between the rival neighbors.

The deal to supply the Indians with more crude from the Kingdom’s two million barrels a day spare capacity comes at a key moment. Saudi Arabia is already India’s largest supplier and because of payment clearing problems, Indian refiners have been cutting their purchases of Iranian crude. Delhi’s attitude to Tehran also hardened last week after Iranians were blamed for a bomb attack in the Indian capital, as well as another in Bangkok. Indeed closer cooperation on terrorism was an issue that was discussed during the Indian defense minister’s stay.

The fine print of the Saudi-Indian defense deal will be worked out in advance of a visit by Defense Minister Prince Salman to New Delhi later in the year. A joint committee is looking at a range of defense cooperation options. These will include defense production and increased training of personnel, which could involve Indian mountain troops training their Saudi counterparts in the Kingdom. However, it is already clear that ground-breaking joint exercises are in the offing. There are also likely to be high-level army, naval and air force exchanges, as well as goodwill visits by ships from both navies. Of especial importance is the scheme to work closely on combating piracy in the Indian Ocean where commercial vessels from both countries have fallen victim to attacks from pirates based in Somalia.

That the Indians are very serious about military cooperation was made clear by the top brass who traveled to the Kingdom with Defense Minister Antony and Defense Secretary Shashi K. Sharma. They included Vice Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. S.K. Singh, Deputy Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Satish Soni and Air Vice Marshal M. R. Pawar.

One early sign of the increased cooperation is likely to be in hydrography. The Indian Navy would be working with their Saudi counterparts on nautical chart-making and the hydrographical surveys of key Saudi coastal areas, ports and harbors and sea areas. A substantial expansion of hydrographic training programs is also planned. Indeed, Indian officials have already been helping in the field.

Saudi Arabia’s continued new focus upon Asia, while by no means ignoring its historic relations with Europe and North America, is an inevitable reflection of the slow but steady shift of economic and geopolitical power to the East.

Even though the final details have yet to be worked out, it is clear from the mood music from both sides during this Indian visit, that this has been a highly successful trip which will be leading to a growth in relations, at both a military and commercial level.

Sultan al-Qassemi
Tue, 07/02/2012 - 13:13

As the Muslim Brotherhood ascends to power, a question remains on how the once “banned” group will handle the issue of ties with the Arab Gulf states.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are today the two states in the Gulf that are most skeptical of the Muslim Brotherhood. And yet these are precisely the two countries that Egypt's Brotherhood must try its best to build bridges with. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, after all, the two largest economies in the Arab world, and the biggest investors in Egypt despite what other Gulf countries claim. Almost 500 UAE firms operate in Egypt with investments valued at US$10 billion, the same amount invested by Saudis. The latter have additionally promised to grant Egypt several billion dollars in aid. It is also worth noting that 1.5 million Egyptians work and live in Saudi Arabia, while 250,000 Egyptians are residents of the UAE.

The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does enjoy a semi-recognized status in two other Gulf states. For instance, although it suffered a recent elections setback in Bahrain’s previous parliament, the Menbar Society, a Bahraini offshoot of the Brotherhood, had previously held six seats out of a total of 40, in addition to the post of second deputy speaker. In Kuwait, Islamists won an overwhelming majority of seats in parliament this month with the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood, known as the Islamic Constitutional Movement, winning all four seats it contested in the 50-seat body, doubling the number they had earlier held.

As of today, though, representatives of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been alone among Gulf states in announcing their skepticism of Egypt's Brotherhood. A recent opinion column by Tariq al-Homayed, editor of the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that is owned by Saudi Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz, criticized what he called “disciples” who “come out to defend the Muslim Brotherhood, acting as if they are the Muslim Brotherhood ambassadors to Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states.” Additionally, in a widely circulated video recording of a recent speech in Bahrain, Dubai’s police chief, who enjoys close relations with the country’s prime minister, warned against the Muslim Brotherhood, stating that their “threat” to the region was just as serious as that of Iran’s. Additionally, I outlined in an article in Gulf News last year how a petition calling for reform sent to the UAE government by 130 academics was stillborn due to the fact that some of the signatories were affiliated with the Brotherhood in the country.

I was personally told by UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed that there are three issues of importance to the Arab Gulf states that Egypt’s Brotherhood must clarify in order for a new page to be opened between both sides. First, the Gulf states require clear assurances from the Brotherhood that it will not seek to “export the revolution” to the Gulf. Secondly, the Gulf states require assurances that any Muslim Brotherhood-backed government in Egypt will not compromise Gulf security. Bin Zayed finally added that the Gulf states would gladly commit to further investments if the Egyptian government adopts a clear developmental plan and position with regard to Egypt’s IMF and World Bank commitments — instead of playing hard to get.

Another senior Saudi official speaking under Chatham House rules at a recent international meeting cautioned the Islamist parties in Egypt and other parts of the Arab world not to “waste their time with expecting investments from the West,” since these countries are suffering from the fallout of the global financial crisis, and instead build ties with the Arab Gulf states.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s new powerbrokers along with other Islamists, would do well to heed this advice, precisely because they are in dire need to mend Egypt's socioeconomic grievances — made a necessity after the revolution.

Furthermore, in a recent article in UAE’s The National newspaper, editorial writer Hassan Hassan outlined two additional issues that make the Gulf governments weary of the Brotherhood’s influence in their countries. In addition to the Brotherhood’s dominating “influence” on the Gulf’s education sector, the author states that the most problematic aspect is the “requirement for Gulf members [of the Brotherhood] to pledge allegiance to a figurehead in Egypt,” namely Mohamed Badie, the current supreme guide of the group.

Perhaps Qatar, the region’s rising diplomatic broker, can play a role in bridging the gap between the Gulf states and the Brotherhood in Egypt. Qatar, after all, has hosted senior Egyptian Brotherhood figures for decades, including Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has lived in Doha since 1961, in addition to promising $10 billion in investment once “stability returns” to Egypt.

I previously outlined in an Al Jazeera article Egypt's importance to the Arab Gulf states, particularly because it is the only Arab state capable of balancing Iran’s military might. Moreover, there is much in common when it comes to the right-wing economic liberal ideologies adopted by the Arab Gulf states and the Brotherhood. This is evident in the affiliation of many leading businessmen with the Brotherhood, which advocates a free-market economy with a strong private sector.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will sooner or later face a conundrum on how to attract much needed investments from wealthy regimes that are largely suspicious of its agenda. Unlike Western officials, no Gulf state representative has visited the Brotherhood in Egypt (although Qatar’s emir did visit Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi last May). Nor have Gulf officials received representatives from the Brotherhood in their countries. The coming days will show us whether the Brotherhood’s pragmatism will lead them to start knocking on Gulf states’ doors.

Sultan al-Qassemi is a UAE-based commentator on Arab affairs.

When two car bombings killed nearly 50 people in the heart of the Syrian capital of Damascus just before Christmas, we in the West were quick to challenge claims made on state TV that the atrocities had been carried out by al-Qaeda. We were inclined to award more credibility to the Syrian rebels, who denied that the terror group was involved at all, and insisted that the attacks had been cynically staged by the government, perhaps as a bid for international sympathy.

However, all doubt ended last week when James Clapper, director of US national intelligence, informed the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Damascus bombings “had all the earmarks of an al-Qaeda attack”. Mr Clapper added that “we believe al-Qaeda in Iraq is extending its reach into Syria”. So, it’s official. Al-Qaeda is acknowledged as an ally of Britain and America in our desire to overturn the Syrian government

Meanwhile, in Libya there are menacing signs that last year’s Anglo-French intervention is starting to go wrong. The toppling of the Gaddafi regime has not brought an end to the killing. If anything, the fighting appears to be getting worse, as the country breaks into hostile armed fractions – a fertile hunting ground for al-Qaeda, our latest collaborator in the war on terror. I hope that the Prime Minister and his Foreign Secretary, William Hague, know what they are doing as they allow Britain to be dragged closer towards further intervention in the Middle East. But judging from their public remarks they may be playing a game whose rules they do not fully understand

For India, the stakes are high, not so much in Syria by itself but in the whole region, especially the sub-region of the Gulf. As was mentioned by this writer in an article entitled: “The new great game” (The Hindu, April 28, 2011), India might have to practise a new form of non-alignment or dual alignment between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The time for this has come. Continued instability in Syria might make the region unstable, affecting the production and export of oil, and, most importantly, the situation of the six-million Indian diaspora working in the region. India's vote in favour of the resolution which was vetoed by Russia and China on February 4 should not be seen as “no longer sitting on the fence”; rather, it was, one likes to think, a demonstration of our readiness to adapt our positions to changed circumstances. Consistency is not a virtue in international relations. It is quite possible that future challenges might produce yet different responses.

Riyadh and Delhi are quietly drawing closer, acknowledging their many shared concerns


Amidst last week’s focus in the Indian media about a coming conflict between Iran and Israel, not much attention was paid to a historic visit to Saudi Arabia by the defence minister, A.K. Anthony.

Several interesting facts marked Anthony’s path-breaking travel across the Arabian Sea. First, the visit was the first ever such official visit by an Indian defence minister to the epicentre of the Arab world. Second, it came in response to persistent invitations from the Saudi government. Anthony was unable to make the trip on two earlier occasions when an invitation had been issued, but finally made it after a third call from Riyadh. Third, the defence minister was accompanied not just by diplomats and civilian officials but by three senior defence officials — the vice chief of army staff, the deputy chief of naval staff and an air vice marshal. Fourth, Anthony had one-on-one talks with his counterpart Prince Salman and an extended audience with King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.

At the end of what has been described as “wide-ranging” talks, India and Saudi Arabia have agreed to set up a joint panel of officials who will together draft a defence cooperation agreement and a “road map” for defence cooperation that would include joint exercises between the three services of the two nations, training and co-production of defence equipment. The militaries and navies of both countries will undertake joint patrolling of the Arabian Sea, fighting sea piracy and disruption to maritime traffic.

For any single visit by a defence minister to another country, and that too, the very first visit announced with little fanfare just 48 hours before the visit occurred, these outcomes are significant. They have raised eyebrows around the world, most importantly in the Middle East and in South Asia. The Arab and Pakistani media seem to have taken greater note of this visit than the Indian media!

For all his low-profile manner, Anthony knows a thing or two both about domestic politics and strategic affairs. He timed his visit well, with an eye on politics at home and developments abroad.

If Iran seeks to meddle in domestic Indian politics by creating disaffection among the Shias of Uttar Pradesh, what better way to counter that by reminding all concerned that while the Shias maybe an important vote bank in UP, they constitute only 10 per cent of Indian Muslims, while the Sunnis account for an overwhelming 90 per cent.

Anthony’s visit would have also reassured the hugely important Malayali community in the Gulf, which has been unnerved by the resentment against expatriate workers in a region where economic disparities have come to the fore in the wake of the so-called “Arab Awakening”. Besieged Arab elites facing the anger of their masses have been tempted to point to foreign workers as the villains taking away jobs from the locals. But the region’s wiser political leadership has resisted such attempts in the knowledge that the Indian community in the Gulf constitutes the economy’s backbone.

As the threat of war looms large over the Gulf, India’s diplomatic activism, with the external affairs minister, S.M. Krishna, visiting Israel, Anthony visiting Saudi Arabia and National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon visiting the recently active Qatar, is clearly aimed both at averting conflict and insuring India against the risks of one if it became inevitable.

India’s main concern is energy security and the security of the Indian community in the region. Already, rising tensions have pushed the price of oil up. Even if hostilities were not to break out, the persistence of raised risk levels will keep oil prices high. Finally, if Iran were to lay mines in the sea as a pre-emptive or provocative act, this would seriously disrupt the movement of oil tankers. Any sustained rise in the price of oil will hit the Indian economy hard.

King Abdullah has, it is reliably learnt, offered cast-iron assurances to Anthony that Saudi Arabia would step in and help both in making more oil available to India and in assuring the safety and security of Indian expatriates in the region.

An interesting aspect of the bilateral understanding reached between Anthony and Prince Salman is that India and Saudi Arabia would also undertake joint research and projects in the field of hydrography, exchanging information on nautical cartography and hydrographic surveys of coastal areas, ports, harbours and designated sea areas. In the near term this would also facilitate de-mining!

The people of India and Arabia have interacted across the waters between them for thousands of years. Omani and Gujarati seafarers were among the earliest and Arabs reached the Kerala coast as traders and teachers, not conquerors. In fact, among all the Muslim communities of the Middle East and Central Asia it is only the Arabs who never sought to conquer India.{How short is the memory. What t about Mohd Bin Qasim and repeated invasions of Sind?} The Turks, the Persians, and the Central Asians came by land to plunder or rule. The Arabs came by sea to trade and teach.

While history has its limitations in shaping contemporaneous and forward-looking strategic choices, it does shape popular perceptions. What is, however, driving the India- Saudi relationship today is not this benign history but shared concerns about stability and growth in the Arabian Sea littoral and the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia is as concerned about events in Iran as it is about trends in Pakistan. Riyadh’s outreach to New Delhi is also an indicator that the Saudis are worried about what is happening in Pakistan. In this “arc of instability” Riyadh hopes India would be a reliable and credible guarantor of stability.

The writer is director for geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and honorary senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research

India's Arab Spirit

Sanjay Baru in Indian Express.



By and large agree but his amnesia about Qasim's invasion of Sindh and its permanent camp of Islam in India detracts from his opinion.

Israel has deployed assets in Azerbaijan and another country. Everything is set for ops in Iran. Like I said - RED ALERT in the region.

As Iran and Azerbaijan trade barbs over allegations of assassination plots, many worry that these and other incidents mean the countries in the South Caucasus region - American-backed Georgia and Armenia too - have become an espionage no-man's-land in the conflict between the Iranian and Israeli intelligence services.