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PostPosted: 13 Jul 2012 22:19 
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^^ They are looking like fools.

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On the chemical weapons. No one is sure the reasons for movin but leaking the news is basically a warning to Asad. Obviously, Unkil and co are worried and this is a coordinated leak in UK by sky news and the US in WSJ. This is how they operate per NATO SOP. I said earlier goras are waiting for green light. A major effort has been underway covertly.

For Israel, they have no choice but to intervene and prevent transfer to Hezbollah.


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PostPosted: 13 Jul 2012 22:30 
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^^
Is the aircraft downing confusion a case of kemalist military pushing back against Erdogan's pan-sunni agenda?


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PostPosted: 13 Jul 2012 23:20 
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Their closest ally the US of A embarresed them. They need to save face and protect their pride somehow.

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Ban ki moon due in Beijing and Kofi off to Russia on Monday. Obviously Syria is to be discussed. Both racking up their air miles while they can and maybe they'll get a good pension out of all this.

Both sides going for the kill. Fight to the death.


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PostPosted: 14 Jul 2012 00:52 
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Well bottom line is Turkey simply lied and went to the extent to try to involve NATO with some sort of no fly zone over this incident and that did not fly much.

The Russians ,Turkey and Syria would have had the flight path on their radar so it was not something hidden , never mind though.


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PostPosted: 14 Jul 2012 01:13 
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Only the fanciful thought of war shooting off from the downing of the Turkish jet. I think some of us suggested immediately that it would not go to war, and personally I expressed my doubts as to whether Erdogan was at all sincere in his supposed hostility towards the Syrian regime.

Now when is this any-time-now war that was supposed to have started weeks ago - finally going to happen?


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PostPosted: 14 Jul 2012 03:13 
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War is a pleasant pass time when the (treasury) cup is brimming and overflowing. It also a purposeful endeavor when nations are broke completely thereby necessitating a diversion or a plunder cum loot.

In the case of Syria, unkil and allies are not completely broke nor brimming with coins to spare pass time. Libiya was to divert attention for France Italy UK and to a lesser extent USA

The EU Aam aadmi has no stomach for a war that is not threatening lives in Europe as the election results have shown in France Greece Spain

The only beneficiaries are KSA Israel and Turkey and among the three only KSA has a cup brimming and over flowing. Even they are reluctant to Finance the war as oil prices are not exactly shooting up because the war? Wars like Libyan and syrian one will be too short but bloody civil war may continue with out oil prices changing adding to destabilizing the equilibrium another Lebanon may be?

So not much of chance the BS of C&B weapons even Iran joining the chorus is only to add masala format status quo. Syria is also encouraging it because of historical precedence set by Saddam. The moment it was confirmed he did not have any maal he was a goner...


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PostPosted: 14 Jul 2012 07:00 
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The Syrian opposition: who's doing the talking? - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... he-talking

This article from the Guardian takes a deeper look into the backgrounds of many of the Syrian opposition figures. Here is a an excerpt about the SNC's most senior spokesperson Bassma Kodmani.

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Image
Here is Bassma Kodmani, seen leaving this year's Bilderberg conference in Chantilly, Virginia.

Kodmani is a member of the executive bureau and head of foreign affairs, Syrian National Council. Kodmani is close to the centre of the SNC power structure, and one of the council's most vocal spokespeople. "No dialogue with the ruling regime is possible. We can only discuss how to move on to a different political system," she declared this week. And here she is, quoted by the newswire AFP: "The next step needs to be a resolution under Chapter VII, which allows for the use of all legitimate means, coercive means, embargo on arms, as well as the use of force to oblige the regime to comply."

This statement translates into the headline "Syrians call for armed peacekeepers" (Australia's Herald Sun). When large-scale international military action is being called for, it seems only reasonable to ask: who exactly is calling for it? We can say, simply, "an official SNC spokesperson," or we can look a little closer.

This year was Kodmani's second Bilderberg. At the 2008 conference, Kodmani was listed as French; by 2012, her Frenchness had fallen away and she was listed simply as "international" – her homeland had become the world of international relations.

Back a few years, in 2005, Kodmani was working for the Ford Foundation in Cairo, where she was director of their governance and international co-operation programme. The Ford Foundation is a vast organisation, headquartered in New York, and Kodmani was already fairly senior. But she was about to jump up a league.

Around this time, in February 2005, US-Syrian relations collapsed, and President Bush recalled his ambassador from Damascus. A lot of opposition projects date from this period. "The US money for Syrian opposition figures began flowing under President George W Bush after he effectively froze political ties with Damascus in 2005," says the Washington Post.

In September 2005, Kodmani was made the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) – a research programme initiated by the powerful US lobby group, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) [which is in turn an affiliate of the RIIA (Royal Institute of International Affairs aka Chatham House), set up by the Rothschild syndicate].

The CFR is an elite US foreign policy thinktank, and the Arab Reform Initiative is described on its website as a "CFR Project" . More specifically, the ARI was initiated by a group within the CFR called the "US/Middle East Project" – a body of senior diplomats, intelligence officers and financiers, the stated aim of which is to undertake regional "policy analysis" in order "to prevent conflict and promote stability". The US/Middle East Project pursues these goals under the guidance of an international board chaired by General (Ret.) Brent Scowcroft.

Image
Peter Sutherland pictured at the Bilderberg conference. Photograph: Hannah Borno

Brent Scowcroft (chairman emeritus) is a former national security adviser to the US president – he took over the role from Henry Kissinger. Sitting alongside Scowcroft of the international board is his fellow geo-strategist, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who succeeded him as the national security adviser, and Peter Sutherland, the chairman of Goldman Sachs International. So, as early as 2005, we've got a senior wing of the western intelligence/banking establishment selecting Kodmani to run a Middle East research project. In September of that year, Kodmani was made full-time director of the programme. Earlier in 2005, the CFR assigned "financial oversight" of the project to the Centre for European Reform (CER). In come the British.

The CER is overseen by Lord Kerr, the deputy chairman of Royal Dutch Shell. Kerr is a former head of the diplomatic service and is a senior adviser at Chatham House (a thinktank showcasing the best brains of the British diplomatic establishment).

In charge of the CER on a day-to-day basis is Charles Grant, former defence editor of the Economist, and these days a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a "pan-European thinktank" packed with diplomats, industrialists, professors and prime ministers. On its list of members you'll find the name: "Bassma Kodmani (France/Syria) – Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative".

Another name on the list: George Soros – the financier whose non-profit "Open Society Foundation" is a primary funding source of the ECFR. At this level, the worlds of banking, diplomacy, industry, intelligence and the various policy institutes and foundations all mesh together, and there, in the middle of it all, is Kodmani.

The point is, Kodmani is not some random "pro-democracy activist" who happens to have found herself in front of a microphone. She has impeccable international diplomacy credentials: she holds the position of research director at the Académie Diplomatique Internationale – "an independent and neutral institution dedicated to promoting modern diplomacy". The Académie is headed by Jean-Claude Cousseran, a former head of the DGSE – the French foreign intelligence service.

A picture is emerging of Kodmani as a trusted lieutenant of the Anglo-American democracy-promotion industry. Her "province of origin" (according to the SNC website) is Damascus, but she has close and long-standing professional relationships with precisely those powers she's calling upon to intervene in Syria.

And many of her spokesmen colleagues are equally well-connected.


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PostPosted: 14 Jul 2012 10:32 
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X-posting from GDF

Ralph Peters geopolitical map of the Middle East is being given a legitimacy through this report on Resource Distribution. Resource Distribution in a New Middle East

It is a wonder as to how the US Geological Society is also used to provide data for the Anglo-Saxon think-tanks. The advisor is a high school academic, it shows how deep the culture of critical thinking for the interests of one's own MIC goes.


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 01:37 
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Above two posts are terrific. It really takes a handful of smart people to control the masses. ...will Pootin put an end to this or at least slow it down?


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 03:02 
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Klaus wrote:
X-posting from GDF

Ralph Peters geopolitical map of the Middle East is being given a legitimacy through this report on Resource Distribution. Resource Distribution in a New Middle East

It is a wonder as to how the US Geological Society is also used to provide data for the Anglo-Saxon think-tanks. The advisor is a high school academic, it shows how deep the culture of critical thinking for the interests of one's own MIC goes.


Am I missing something or petroleum is not included among resources?


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 07:12 
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KLNMurthy wrote:
Am I missing something or petroleum is not included among resources?


Perhaps they are running with the Peak Oil projection made in 2007. Perhaps they envisage the geopolitical situation changing quicker if the oil fields dried up, i.e the desired end state (Ralph Peters map) achieved earlier in an oil depleted ME.

There is also an elementary psy-ops value to it, the West can coerce the ME masses to accept the new states and thus face up to the new reality better.


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 11:15 
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X Posted from the Islamic Sectarianism thread.

The oppression of adherents of the minority Shia Mohammadden sect by the majority adherents of the Sunni sect of Mohammaddenism in Saudi Barbaria brings a rare rebuke from Russia.

Interfax quotes Konstantin Dolgov, the Russian Foreign Ministry's envoy for Human Rights as saying "We hope that the authorities of the kingdom will take all of the measures needed to normalize the situation in its eastern districts, prevent any confrontation there, including interfaith clashes, and guarantee the observance of generally accepted human rights, including the right to freedom of expression, peaceful demonstrations and freedom of assembly as permitted by the law,"

Read it all:

Russia hopes Saudi leaders will prevent religious confrontation in eastern districts


Predictably the Saudi Barbarians are rather upset with the Russians:

Saudi Arabia condemns Russia’s “hostile” comments on human rights


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 16:05 
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GCC asks Egypt to join the GCC

---------------------------
Jundal had one Pak, 3 Saudi Arabian SIMs
Quote:
Had multiple email IDs; each meant for specific persons
Shaurya Karanbir Gurung
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, July 5
Terror mastermind Sayed Zabiuddin Ansari, alias Abu Jundal, used multiple email IDs and SIM cards, each meant to communicate only with specific persons.

Jundal’s pan-India network of sleeper agents and modules in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are being slowly unearthed as sleuths have fanned out across the country to follow up on leads emerging from his interrogation. He had also set up a new module of the Indian Mujahideen (IM).

A special cell of the Delhi Police has found that Jundal had been using nine email IDs and four SIM cards (one from Pakistan and three from Saudi Arabia). “Call details in respect of various SIM cards have been obtained through diplomatic channels and the same are being analysed. The mirror images, a technical term for call details available on SIM cards, have been converted into DVDs and are being analysed,” the special cell told Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Vinod Yadav today.

The magistrate extended the police remand of Jundal and allowed the Delhi Police to retain him till July 20. The claims of the National Investigation Agency and the ATS, Mumbai, seeking his custody were turned down.

Investigators are now clear that Jundal was part of a larger conspiracy and he is in knowledge of several plots and plans being hatched by Pakistan-based terror groups under the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT).

The Delhi Police has dispatched special teams to various places in India to gather further information. Jundal had been running several small modules. Just ahead of the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi, he arranged for the shootout at Jama Masjid. A motorcycle-borne youth had fired at a bus carrying foreign tourists. Shooter Mohd Adil, a Pakistani youth, was arrested in November last year. He had named Jundal as the key member.

The Delhi Police told the court, “Information gathered from Jundal needs to be analysed in a centralised manner with a view to establish his links with other invisible handlers of the LeT and the IM.”

The probe

n Call details of various SIMs have been obtained and are being analysed

n It is also being established how he managed to collect a big haul of weapons

n He is in the know of several plots being hatched by Pak-based terror groups

n His police remand has been extended till July 20

Interesting KSA has been handing over more evidence to support the case against Jundal.


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 20:10 
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The Turks look like fools now and not sure what internal struggle is causing this.

As for war last Sept there were predictions of 2 weeks and red lines :mrgreen:

then more recently 48 hrs and so on.

I think most sensible countries know modern war will drag your economy down even if you are a hyperpower let alone a developing economy.

Turkey tried to drag NATO in and failed and probably reinforced the European boys mindset why it should be kept out of full EU membership


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PostPosted: 15 Jul 2012 23:35 
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Pranav wrote:
The Syrian opposition: who's doing the talking? - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... he-talking

This article from the Guardian takes a deeper look into the backgrounds of many of the Syrian opposition figures. Here is a an excerpt about the SNC's most senior spokesperson Bassma Kodmani.

---------------------


The only problem with this article is that it fails to address how utterly irrelevant the SNC is to what is going on *inside* Syria.

The Local Coordinating Committees (LCC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) battalions are the ones driving the Syrian civil opposition and armed resistance respectively.

The SNC's formation is a reflection of the Turkish, Gulf and Western desire to be able to shape events by creating an umbrella group. The SNC as is typical of these efforts is totally disconnected from the people on the ground, and represents little more than itself. It can't even do that particularly well given the fact that its terribly divided.

These guys are going to be despised by the hundreds of thousands of those who are working well together to carry out the actual protesting, fighting, reporting, network building and passive resistance etc on the ground while SNC types shuttle around to bickerat conferences in expensive hotels, making zero difference to the outcome.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 04:31 
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Protests and battles took place inside Damascus today.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 05:13 
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Now a "Civil War" ,IRC.Above posts have shown how the entire Arab Spring has been a sinister plot by vested western entities with their own agenda.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Cross.html

Quote:
Syrian conflict declared a civil war by the Red Cross
The conflict in Syria was effectively declared a civil war by the Red Cross on Sunday, as the "most intense" fighting since the start of the uprising was reported in Damascus.

By Adrian Blomfield, Middle East Correspondent and Alex Spillius
15 Jul 2012

The Red Cross had previously designated Idlib, Homs and Hama as war zones, but the change in status means international humanitarian law applies wherever fighting occurs throughout the country

Combatants will now be officially subject to the Geneva Conventions, and will be more exposed to war crimes prosecutions, after the ICRC declared that the conflict was a "non-international armed conflict", or in lay terms a civil war.

Sean Maguire, a spokesman for the ICRC, said that both sides would be reminded of their obligations "to protect civilians from fighting, treat the wounded and sick without discrimination".

The categorisation was made after the ICRC determined that the armed opposition to Bashar al-Assad's regime had reached a sufficient level of organisation and capability.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy clashes in the capital in what was described as the "most intense" fighting there since the start of the anti-regime revolt in Syria.

"The regular army fired mortar rounds into several suburbs" where rebels of the Free Syrian Army are entrenched, said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "They have never been this intense."

Kofi Annan, the international envoy of Syria, and Ban Ki-Moon, the UN secretary general, set off on a trip to Russia and China on Monday in a bid to persuade them to back tougher action against Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, but hopes for a breakthrough are slender.

The Syrian government went on the offensive yesterday by attempting to claim a propaganda victory after UN observers called into question opposition claims of a civilian massacre in the village of Tremseh.

Local activists had accused regime forces of slaughtering as many as 220 civilians in what would have been the worst massacre of the 16-month uprising against Mr Assad.

Although a team of monitors that reached the scene encountered scenes of heavy destruction and found evidence of mass fatalities, they concluded that the vast majority of the dead were rebels or opposition activists.

Their findings were swiftly trumpeted by the Assad regime, which accused Western leaders and Mr Annan of rushing to draw fallacious conclusions.

But while the observers' report suggested that the government's narrative was closer to reality than the opposition's, the events that unfolded in Tremseh last Thursday remain murky.

Nor was the regime's position entirely vindicated. The UN stood by its accusation that government forces had used tanks and helicopter gunships in breach of a pledge made by Mr Assad a week ago not to use heavy weapons.

Reaching the village 48 hours after the killings, the observers spoke of encountering scenes of devastation and seeing chilling traces of the ferocity of the government's onslaught amid the ruins.

"There were pools of blood and blood spatters in rooms of several homes together with bullet cases," said Sausan Ghosheh, a spokesman for the monitoring team.

"A wide range of weapons were used, including artillery, mortars and small arms."

The findings appeared to suggest that a number of the victims were shot at close range, echoing opposition claims of execution-style killings carried out by the pro-Assad Shabiha militia, whose ranks are largely drawn from president's Alawite minority.

But the observers also reported that the attack appeared to target "specific groups and houses, mainly of army defectors and activists" -- a significant departure from the narrative of some opposition activists.

Tremseh lies along the same sectarian fault line as two other Sunni villages – Howl and Qubeir – whose inhabitants were allegedly massacred by army soldiers and militiamen from surrounding Alawite communities.

In both cases, photographic evidence was produced to show a large number of women and children among the dead. But video footage from Tremseh indicated that nearly all the dead were men of fighting age.

If, as now seems likely, the killings were the result of a lopsided battle, they would represent one of the most catastrophic rebel defeats of the campaign.

Opposition sources conceded that most of the dead were fighters and confirmed that the battle had been triggered by a rebel ambush on an army convoy.

But they claimed that few of the dead were formal rebels, saying that most were male inhabitants of the village who had taken up arms to prevent an Alawite attempt to "cleanse" Tremseh.

Lacking the sophisticated communications equipment that most rebels in the Free Syrian Army have, the rebels were unable to call for reinforcements resulting in a heavily one-sided battle, one activist said.

The death toll remained in dispute, with the government saying that 37 opposition fighters and two civilians were killed. Opposition activists said that between 100 and 150 died, but conceded that they only knew of "at least seven" civilian fatalities.

Presented with a rare opportunity to portray itself as misrepresented, the Syrian government launched a public relations offensive to absolve itself of guilt.

"What happened in Tremseh was a military operation, not as massacre," Jihad Makdissi, the Syrian foreign ministry's spokesman, told a press conference."

He also furiously denounced a letter written by Mr Annan to the United Nations Security Council that urged members to unite in action against the regime for its use of heavy weaponry in Tremseh. A similarly worded letter was sent to the Syrian foreign ministry.

"The least that can be said about this letter about what happened in Tremseh is that it did not rely on facts," Mr Makdissi said. "As diplomatically as possible, we say that this letter was very rushed."

The dispute over Tremseh is likely to complicate international efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis, with Russia almost certain to seize on it as evidence that the opposition, rather than the regime, is responsible for most of the bloodshed.

The mandate for the 300-man observer mission to Syria is due to expire on Friday with no sign of an end to international divisions.

Russia wants the mandate to be renewed for a further three months. But it is resisting Western efforts to bolster it with a Security Council resolution threatening the Assad regime with sanctions if it fails to take steps to end the violence and form a transitional government with the opposition.

Meanwhile, the president of Syria's main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, stepped up pressure on America to take action by accusing President Barack Obama of stalling so as not to jeopardise his November re-election prospects.

"We cannot understand that a superpower ignores the killing of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians because of an election campaign that a president may win or lose," Abdelbasset Sayda told CNN.



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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 06:10 
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Iraq war will haunt west, says Briton who advised US military
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/ju ... s-military

Exclusive: Emma Sky – British civilian who advised US commanders in Iraq – says Muslim world sees a war on Islam

Read part one of our exclusive interview with Emma Sky


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 08:45 
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What advice did she give the US military in Iraq that now she laments on Muslim point of view?


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 11:03 
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What are the chances that Syria might be broken into Alwaites and Sunni nation , where Alwaite , Christians ,Shiah and others can have their own niche and Sunni majority would have their own.

I suspect most Alwaites , Shiah and Christian wont be too happy to be under Sunni majority led nation where it might be another Saudi Barbaria type ruler ruling over Syria with backing from West but under guise of democracy


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 11:16 
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Johann wrote:
The only problem with this article is that it fails to address how utterly irrelevant the SNC is to what is going on *inside* Syria.

The Local Coordinating Committees (LCC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) battalions are the ones driving the Syrian civil opposition and armed resistance respectively.


US facilitating arms flow to Syrian rebels - http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/7389


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 11:35 
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Pranav wrote:
Johann wrote:
The only problem with this article is that it fails to address how utterly irrelevant the SNC is to what is going on *inside* Syria.

The Local Coordinating Committees (LCC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) battalions are the ones driving the Syrian civil opposition and armed resistance respectively.


US facilitating arms flow to Syrian rebels - http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/7389


As I was saying - the SNC is not relevant. They are not the ones on the ground, nor are they the leadership of the movement.

The West on one side, and Turkey and the Gulf on the other are trying to coordinate, but they're having a difficult time because their Syrian friends on the ground are not always the same kinds of people, and their preferences for a post-Assad future are not the same.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 11:43 
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Austin wrote:
What are the chances that Syria might be broken into Alwaites and Sunni nation , where Alwaite , Christians ,Shiah and others can have their own niche and Sunni majority would have their own.

I suspect most Alwaites , Shiah and Christian wont be too happy to be under Sunni majority led nation where it might be another Saudi Barbaria type ruler ruling over Syria with backing from West but under guise of democracy


Lebanon remained one country, despite 15 years of on and off communal civil war and multiple Syrian and Israeli invasions and disenfranchised sections of the population that never believed in the idea of Lebanon. Syrian nationalism if anything runs much deeper than Lebanese nationalism.

The Maronites, the Palestinians and the Shia all tried to dominate Lebanon and failed - the political compromises that emerged after came out of the realisation that no one group could dominate the country.

Syria will probably experience similar spasms. But between religious minorities, sectarian minorities, the Kurds, secular/liberal Sunnis, Syria's Sunni population will learn the hard way if they try to monopolise power.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 11:58 
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Philip wrote:
Above posts have shown how the entire Arab Spring has been a sinister plot by vested western entities with their own agenda.


Philip are you serious?! This is like dismissing the Iranian Revolution as a Soviet plot, or the Soviet revolution as a German plot.

Have you even talked to any ordinary Tunisians, Egyptians and Syrians in the last year? How about Bahrainis and Yemenis?

The most important reason that these things are happening is because millions of people found living under corrupt police states that sold out their revolutionary promise years back to be intolerable.

Technology has undermined, and is undermining systems where state power comes from the power to silence people. People just aren't as scared of the Mukhabarat anymore. That is the *real* revolution of the Arab Spring.

Whatever or however the political system in the Arab republics change, they will have to govern through consensus rather than fiat.

As for Syria ask yourself why a family like the Tlasses - members of the Baath Party Politburo - people who stood by the Assads for 40+ years, through the ups and downs of the 1975-82 uprising, wars with Israel, confrontation with America etc have abandoned them now?

Not even Saddam's supporters within the Iraqi Baath Party did anything of the sort.

You think you can explain that as a 'sinister plot by vested western entities'?


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 16:09 
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West is using 'blackmail' in new draft of UN resolution on Syria - Lavrov


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 16:51 
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Johann the "Orange revolutions" in the former Warsaw Pat nations were later found to have had a high content of western assistance.The UK's Daily Telegraph during the Egyptian Spring,had a front page report about the CIA plotting for over a year to oust Mubarak! If you firmly believe that there is zero assistance to the Syrian rebels from wetsern intel agencies,etc.,naivety is thy name! In a few years time,like the revelations and bullsh*t about Saddam's WMDs and the conspiracy to invade Iraq planned even before Dubya was elected ,the truth about the so-called "Arab Spring" will be told.

It is not that the Arabs under their dictatorial despotic govts. are happy with their fate and do not want change,but not in the manner in which they are being manipulated by outside forces,or subjugated as in the case of Bahrein.

Here are a couple of similar vewpoints :

Arab spring: 'Western-backed exported Islamist revolution’

Quote:
The string of uprisings in the Arab world boils down to Saudi Arabia and Qatar using money and influence to hijack public dissent and bring Sunni Islamists to power, says John R. Bradley, British author and expert on the Middle East.
­He argues that the turbulence that saw several governments overthrown in 2011 came from sectarian divide among Muslims, which the West played on, to support its own allies.
“What we’re seeing is a Sunni-Shiite divide reemerge in the Middle East with Washington clearly backing the Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia, a close American ally. And Saudi Arabia in turn along with Qatar has taken control of the revolutions elsewhere.
“For example it’s funding the Ennahda, the main Islamist party in Tunisia. The Muslim Brotherhood and more extremist Salafi groups in Egypt on the record were saying they received substantial funds from Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni government has openly criticized Qatar for interfering in its internal affairs and funding radical Islamists. And of course in Syria the main civilian opposition is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the so-called Free Syrian Army is dominated by not only radical jihadists from within Syria, but also by jihadists from throughout the region,” the expert told RT.
Bradley has little doubt that citizens of the countries hit by the Arab Spring had reason to criticize their authorities, but contrary to western audiences’ beliefs, the lack of political rights was far from being the most important factor.
“The motivation for these revolutions was economic. In Tunisia for example it started with the impoverished and neglected deep south. In Syria it started in Daraa, a city near Jordan, which has been experiencing drought for three years. And in Egypt an extensive opinion poll carried out among those who went to Tahrir just after Mubarak fell showed that only 19 per cent of them put free and fair election and free expression and so on, on top of their agenda. The main priority for 65 percent was the economy,” he said.
People more concerned with a power grab than improving lives were quick to seize the opportunity, Bradley explains.
“Now the people who provoked these revolutions foolishly declared their revolutions leaderless and they didn’t have an agenda. Anyone who knows anything about revolutionary uprisings in the past… knows that what happens in the post-revolutionary chaos is that the groups that are most disciplined and most ruthless politically then fill the vacuum. When you couple that with the funding that we were talking about from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, able to manipulate the electoral process, they were perfectly poised to step into the gap and fill the vacuum and that’s what they’ve done,” he says.

http://www.rt.com/news/arab-spring-isla ... ution-723/

Quote:
Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring: the West’s counter-revolutionary force
Posted on May 21, 2012 by socialistworkercanada
—Obama signed an arms deal giving the Saudi dictatorship $60 billion of weapons
By Ahmed El Bassiouny

Recent human rights violations in Saudi Arabia highlight its role in countering protesters. During the whole of the Arab Spring, the Western-backed Kingdom has played a counter-revolutionary role across the region.

First, Saudi Arabia provided shelter for Western-backed Tunisian dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, after being over-thrown. Riyadh refused to give up Ben Ali for trial in Tunisia, proving the Kingdom’s strong opposition to the uprising in Tunisia and acting as a solid wall standing between the Tunisian protesters and their demands for justice. A very similar incident happened in Yemen: after the injury of Ali Abdullah Saleh during the bombing of his presidential palace, everyone could safely bid that Saudi Arabia would kick in to save him. Saleh fled to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment, and then to the US.

It’s unforgettable that Saudi Arabia (armed with US and Canadian weapons) sent troops to Bahrain to “deal” with the Shia-dominated demonstrations. The main goal was to amputate any uprising action in the gulf area, and protect the US Fifth Fleet.

When it came to Egypt—another Western-backed dictatorship—Saudi Arabia rushed into trying to strengthen their ties with the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), by offering financial support. At the exact same time, Saudi Arabia offered financial, political and media support to the major parties in Egypt—the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis. That was in an attempt to win an ally, one that would allow shaping of the region’s politics to their liking. Saudi Arabia has also been arming sections of the Free Syrian Army tied to the Western-backed Syrian National Council, in order to undermine the revolutionary movement in Syria and pave the way for confronting Iran.

Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia’s counter-revolution measures did not stop at backing corrupted regimes; it extended to manipulation of the media. The resignation of Wadah Khanfar, the director general of Al-Jazeera, happened after a week of extensive visits between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Al-Jazeera provided outstanding coverage of the political changes in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Khanfar was replaced by a member of the Qatari Royal family, as punishment to the satellite network’s independent coverage.



http://socialistworkercanada.com/2012/0 ... ary-force/


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 17:08 
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Could We Have the Wars Without the Manipulation?
Rachel Marsden

Quote:
Testifying before a Senate committee a few months ago, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lamented that America was "in an information war, and we are losing that war." This week, she blew a fuse at the "Friends of Syria" meeting in Paris, saying that Russia and China should "pay a price" for not supporting regime change in Syria.

Here's a thought: How about using the power of truth to get things done rather than cover and manipulation?

Russia and China aren't following America's script for one reason: They have major economic interests in Syria and rightfully see any attempt at regime change as America trying to steal their lunch. This isn't like the Libya situation, where Muammar Gadhafi, who essentially became America's ally of convenience in fighting terrorism in the wake of the Iraq invasion, signed his own death warrant when his iron fist started quivering as the Arab Spring roared all around him and ousted his pal in Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, and the leaders of Egypt and Yemen. The subsequent uprising in Libya fit within that climate of mass outcry. If Western forces were involved in sparking the unrest at the outset, then at least the West had plausible deniability in appearing to be intervening under humanitarian pretext.

As Gadhafi began to feel control slipping away, he did what all control freaks do: He flipped out and started cracking down. This provided the window for NATO countries to invoke the U.N.'s "responsibility to protect." The end result was regime change The cause was Gadhafi's crackdown -- at least by all appearances.

What's clearly frustrating Clinton is the fact that the urgency of the Arab Spring is long over, and so are all the favorable optics. All we're left with now is overwhelming evidence of Western-funded, Western-trained mercenaries causing trouble for Bashar al-Assad, thereby making it difficult for the world to tell if military crackdowns are just self-defense against what might be perceived as terrorists. Meanwhile, the State Department has been funding various groups to drum up the humanitarian cause for regime change.

But why even bother with all this cover and pretext? Hasn't Clinton seen the unemployment statistics? She should stop acting as if economics isn't a valid reason for military action. There's never been a better time to come right out and say that America and the West are in an economic war against China and its sphere of influence, and that Americans are losing jobs and the country is losing its manufacturing base to the Chinese, who only make a few cents an hour and live together in dormitories until the day they jump from a window because their lives are so miserable.

Just be honest about the fact that oil and gas are huge cash cows and growth industries of the future, and will provide economic expansion opportunities abroad, around which other industries will prosper. Explain that China, America and each of their respective allies are dividing up the global pie, whether people like it or not -- and that it's time to decide who you'd rather have as a boss.

As military strategist Carl Von Clausewitz once said, war is just an extension of politics by other means. No one can doubt that the West is in a perpetual war with the Chinese sphere for global economic influence and supremacy.

Of course, there is one problem: China is largest foreign owner of publicly held U.S. debt, holding about 8 percent of it, or $1.2 trillion. But either way, a Syrian invasion -- via mercenary proxies or otherwise -- is going to anger China because it won't like the end result. Obama and Clinton just have to decide whether they're going to rip off the Band-Aid slowly or quickly. But one thing's for sure: If they continue to lose sphere and influence to China, that situation will only continue to deteriorate, with China owning increasingly more debt.

But why not explain all this to people?

This process of trying to convince voters, through pretexting and mental manipulation, to get on board for each military action is getting tedious. It's tiresome to watch people fronting for the State Department, petting goats and kissing babies in foreign countries while pretending that any resulting economic opportunities would just be icing on the cake. We're not stupid. Back away from the goat, put down the baby and simply tell the truth. You might be pleasantly surprised at the reaction.

Then, when the battleground moves to Iran, Sudan, Nigeria or elsewhere for the exact same reasons -- as it inevitably will -- your lives will be much easier because you'll at the very least have truth and reason on your side.



http://townhall.com/columnists/rachelma ... ion/page/2


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 18:08 
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Philip ji, don't over estimate the role of the west in these revolutions. They trumpet their role to show their "success" - Om baba will say yes we created this and CIA chief might get a promotion or 2, so its in their interests to trumpet. In reality, they are only small players and not the decisive major factor. If you look at history and the theory of the revolution, there are always people who play their role.

The western role will only help push things in the right direction but are not the major factor. Its always the people that are the deciding factor. What you realise is, some things are too big to control.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 20:36 
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Both the Libyans I know want to have a 'normal' home country. Something they can visit, whine about, feel proud of, and tell people that they are from Libya without experiencing that 'twinge'. It may not seem like much but these were things they were willing to give their lives for. And both lost cousins and uncles in the war and one has come back with shrapnel injury. If it took a western conspiracy to get rid of Gaddafi they were all for it.

As Johann says something has changed. The people have lost their fear of the state. I also tend to think the electronic revolution has something to do with it. All the videos are taken and uploaded and available instantly. No massacre goes uncovered. During the first revolt too the Syrians fought with courage. You don't massacre 40,000 people without facing some serious courage. The difference is today the rest of Syria and the world can see what is happening, this has destroyed the credibility of the regime outside Damascus. Most of the countryside is now a 'no-go' area. I think it will be another 1-2 years before the Assad regime finally goes. When it crumbles, the end will come swiftly, similar to Syria. Assad will be there one day and gone the next.

I was talking to an Iranian the other day and they are torn between what it would take to uproot the beards and the costs their country will have to bear. This is what is holding the Iranians back, they are not willing to pay the price.

So far the chastened Brotherhood groups are being forced to remain democratic. It is obvious to them that they only have 40% of the Egyptian population. Any stupid moves will see this base swiftly erode. And any outside support would wither as well. Even in Tunisia support is only 30% and dwindling swiftly from what I hear. In Libya Gaddafi and the Beards are considered two sides of the same coin, both tyrants to the core. There is no appetite to exchange one for the other. I know one Lebanese/Syrian and I havn't had a chance to talk to him for a while. But the key think he impressed on me is that the Syrians are Arabic in culture but are not an Arab people. They are not quite as smitten with political Islam. They are Syrian first then Muslim. I always thought that boded well.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 21:56 
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^^ both Johann and Theo have hit the point I have tried to make for some time. For a revolution to succeed the people have to be ready to give up their lives and make great sacrifices. If this doesn't occur, the revolution will fail.

--------------------------
More fighting in Damascus. Closer to the ministries and closer to the presidential palace.

--------------------------

US navy ship fired on a small ship off the coast of the UAE after it ignored warnings and approached the ship at high speed. 1 killed


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 23:56 
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Theo, Same fear of unknown and who will take advantage of the mess if TSP has regime change is what keeps the people supporting the kabila guards.
Ralph Peters type maps are also not helpful.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2012 23:59 
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It is a catch 22 situation. This bubble has been set to explode. But India does not want to be a victim of this burst.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 00:16 
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Bursting the bubble though spectacular leads to fallout from the debris.
The other way is to deflate the bubble by allowing the air to escape.

I think India by its many measures:wkkitis, Garam Hawa, trade, kirkit is doing the latter. However it needs to keep the option of bursting the bubble alive.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 03:17 
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1 Indian shot dead by USN. 4 Indian nationals and 2 emiratis were on board the boat.

-------------------------

Reports of chemical weapons already been used in Homs

Asad regime begun arresting other senior officers suspected of defecting


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 04:51 
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Adapting from a different post of mine : the change of a regime may seem like a "revolution" after it has been successful. It may seem to be popular and people losing their fear of death etc. But what people usually miss is that this popular mood comes after and not before. Before, it is a matter of careful secret, and militant organization together with covert support from disgruntled sectiosn of ruling regimes and external forces.

There were many other factors in armies in the Muslim world not taking the side of this or that faction of insurrectionists or uprising organizers - and defection was a very minor issue - in many of the failed demos in the past. The point missed is - the role of state armies, in the days of nation-states, are crucial for even uprisings to be staged - even in the most peaceful of "ways". If the army chooses to intervene with overwhelming force right at the beginning, when there is a transitional stage of testing the waters by the internal as well as external leaders of demos/gatherings/attacks - an unarmed, and non-militant population without military support from outside, never goes for a revolution. The show of numbers road onlee happens when this initial phase is safely crossed.

Population does not want to be killed, and does not come out into open killing fields unless they are practically reassured of internal or external military support - however strong their grievances might be.

"Revolutions" are a matter of extremely small, well organized groups, who also manage the covert support of sections from the ruling regime as well as from outside.

Had we gone through the confessions and assessments of real life participants/organizers/ as well as observers of "revolutions", we would have noticed that they are essentially a matter of organizing military backup - internally or promises/commitments from outside. People in large numbers only join much later - and that too not necessarily out of any focused grievances against the regime. All the individual grievances that exists even in peace time, find an outlet in common defiance or violence - once there is hope for success in that violence or show of strength.


The Russian revolution happened based on a very small support base, a naval uprising of the Kronstadt fleet, and a section of the field army organized by the Bolsheviks. The working class was small [plenty of evidence for that] and socialists and peasant bodies were against.

It is the organization of military violence and confusion in the state army over its purpose and stance, together with external sponsors [ no one can deny that for Russia or China or Cuba, or even the English uprising of Roundheads - who had links to continental religious and financial politics based in Netherlands] - that creates the initial space for people to come out.

These initial forays are by people already organized. If they are relatively unmolested thats when the greater numbers join in. I have gone through the records of almost all such movements typically dubbed successful or failed revolutions - and not a single one is an exception.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 05:49 
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shyamd wrote:
--------------------------
More fighting in Damascus. Closer to the ministries and closer to the presidential palace.

--------------------------


In the last three days Syrian government forces have been using mortars and armoured vehicles in combat 2 to 3.5 miles from the presidential palace.

The last time that happened was in 1924 when the French strafed and shelled the same neighborhood - Al-Midan- during the Great Syrian Revolt.

The end is not imminent, but the regime is struggling, and losing.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 06:15 
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The problem Assad faces is not dissimilar to the one the British faced in Afghanistan. With a large armed group the British could go anywhere and conquer anything but in the end the entire unit was slaughtered down to the last man. The end is not in doubt the details may vary.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 06:26 
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Hi B,

The Arab Spring inverted a lot of the patterns of the past.

Syria, like Egypt and Tunisia and all the rest started as civil protest on the streets.

The Syrian regime, like the Libyan chose to order *regular* conscript soldiers to shoot protesters down in the streets. Even the Iranian regime in 2009 avoided that mistake. The Bahrainis used foreign mercenaries, especially Pakistanis with no local sympathies.

In an era where even conscripts can record, send and watch MMS clips on their phones, the regime lies that these were 'armed terrorists' collapsed quickly and destroyed rank and file morale. After that point defections were inevitable.

As for why civilians were willing to come out in the first place, technology has played a huge part in weakening silence and fear imposed by the secret police.

I was in Syria in the summer of 2010, and I saw people on facebook in *every* cyber cafe, despite the fact it was officially banned. Even a young middle-ish class guy in rural Idlib who I met on the bus and invited me to a meal with his family had a dial-up connection. This was a village with nothing but olive groves around it.

And despite very real Mukhabarat surveillance, two people I barely knew criticised the regime - one in public, although in a very quiet tone of voice. That would have been unthinkable 15 years ago.

These are/were the changing conditions on the ground throughout the Arab world. Quite simply the old model of the police state in which surveillance and control over communications was always key collapsed because the regimes modernised communications for the sake of business, but didn't move quickly enough to embrace the new Chinese technologies of control.

When you combine that with the fact that economic growth wasn't trickling down fast enough while subsidies were being cut and food prices were rising, the result was inevitable.

Its no weirder than any of the thousands of very local protests seen over the towns and cities of India every year over economic and social issues. Its just that in democracies they dont send the army to gun you down. Arabs, particularly young Arabs know that Indians and Brazilians and the French and all sorts of others have those rights, and they don't see why they shouldn't deserve them as well.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 08:08 
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brihaspati wrote:
"Revolutions" are a matter of extremely small, well organized groups, who also manage the covert support of sections from the ruling regime as well as from outside. ...

I have gone through the records of almost all such movements typically dubbed successful or failed revolutions - and not a single one is an exception.

Always the same story, for the past five centuries.

Johann wrote:
In an era where even conscripts can record, send and watch MMS clips on their phones, the regime lies that these were 'armed terrorists' collapsed quickly and destroyed rank and file morale. After that point defections were inevitable.

Lots of staged videos and other psy-ops by the rebels, who are no doubt being tutored by their foreign mentors. The goal of all psy-ops is to create an atmosphere of inevitability which in turn will induce defections. So far their success has been limited. Ultimately it is all about the balance of firepower.


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PostPosted: 17 Jul 2012 09:38 
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Johann,
seemingly it was the social media that helped in ME "spring". But if you go deeper, each of these countries were having some common problems with the role of the state as a monopoly over violence.

This might go into inordinate details if we go country by country. But even with Egypt, it was Mubarak who changed over from blanket coercion of Islamist/MB types under his predecessor, to selective elimination of those of MB leadership seemingly particularly antagonistic and in fact patronage of the mullahcracy.

The army played a peculiar hesitant role. It had reminded me of the "paralysis" shown by the Iranian army when the Americans were foisting Khomeini to replace an apparently less reliable Shah. In both cases, the "western" intel and military intel was heavily interconnected with the domestic military.

One of my projections was that once the western establishment felt sure of Russian and Chinese derailment from a quicker revival of the cold-war threat, they would jettison the ME dictators they had maintained before [for various reasons - including high costs of maintenance]. Each of the countries in "flames" had strong European links in their colonial or semi-colonial past, followed up by either a Left-pretending Brit handle, or right-pretending US handle during the cold-war - sufficient time and opportunity for army-army and intel-intel linkages.

The army had to be held back and made indecisive. So that the crucial initial phase of small-group/urban/activism to open crowd based show of defiance could safely transition. Neither the Iranian nor the 2011 demos could have proceeded without such a restraint. Following on from the Iranian case, and what we know to be the linkages in the ME states - a planned restraint order from external handlers cannot be ruled out. You can see that the restraint has not been ordered for KSA and Bahrain - the ruling systems here have closer bonds based on mutual blackmail material perhaps connected to the long association with Brits.


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