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 Post subject: Managing Chinese Threat
PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:02 
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On August 26th Selig S. Harrison broke the story in New York Times that up to 11,000 PLA soldiers have set up camp in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan Occupied Kashmir legally belongs to India.

China's Discreet Hold on Pakistan's Northern Borderlands by Selig S. Harrison: New York Times
Quote:
While the world focuses on the flood-ravaged Indus River valley, a quiet geopolitical crisis is unfolding in the Himalayan borderlands of northern Pakistan, where Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.

The entire Pakistan-occupied western portion of Kashmir stretching from Gilgit in the north to Azad (Free) Kashmir in the south is closed to the world, in contrast to the media access that India permits in the eastern part, where it is combating a Pakistan-backed insurgency. But reports from a variety of foreign intelligence sources, Pakistani journalists and Pakistani human rights workers reveal two important new developments in Gilgit-Baltistan: a simmering rebellion against Pakistani rule and the influx of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army.


India faces an economically and militarily resurgent People's Republic of China on an expansionary course intent on molding Asia and the world according to its will.

Please discuss here:
  • how PRC would affect India,
  • the geopolitical context in which China and India exist
  • how India needs to respond to the Chinese threat

Any posts already posted on this subject can also be x-posted here.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:07 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

ramana wrote:
India should play the US card jus as PRC is playing the US card. Let me explain. The PRC proliferates to US allies in India's periphery and the US does nothing but issue platitudes and wring hands about treaty obligations, great power compulsions and other BS all the while Indian security is singed. India should identify US allies in PRC neighborhood who have issues with PRC and bolster them. The other thing is to support those powers who are neighbors of PRC rogues: NoKo and TSP.

So I suggest supporting SoKo, Japan and Afghanistan.

Vietnam and Iran are different category.


South Korea
Mostly the only tension between PRC and SoKo, IMHO, is with regards to some historical reinterpretation of the Goguryeo Kingdom. This however is being used by China to justify retaining its territories in Manchuria within PRC, and have less to do with occupying current lands within North Korea and South Korea.

It is unclear whether Koreans, say after the collapse of North Korea, would lay claims on these territories or not. Most probably not, considering that South Korea would already be under stress integrating the North Korean territories within Korea, than with reclaiming age-old territories in other countries.

Beyond delivering a little injury to Korean pride, this issue, IMHO, does not hide any potential of a war between South Korea and PRC.

Another dispute between PRC and South Korea is over an underwater reef called Socotra Rock. This, IMHO, does not hold the potential for a conflict.

South Korea's biggest challenges is to keep up with China as a marine power, is to ensure a smooth integration with North Korea whenever the time is ripe, and the other is to ensure that there is no war with North Korea.

Generally speaking South Korea does enjoy good relations with Beijing.

There is not much India can offer South Korea in dealing with its security challenges. India did stop a North Korean ship once carrying missile components to Pakistan. India can nevertheless help South Korea in securing its ships passing through the Indian Ocean.

Indian Ocean Security

For the cargo passing through the Indian Ocean, security from pirates is the main challenge. Where India can make a substantial contribution to the security of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan is in securing their ships passing the coast of Somalia.

May be the pirates can play the same role for India as the jihadis play for Pakistan - as a means of blackmail & gaining influence. :wink:

Anyway India can reach some arrangement with these countries to aid them in curbing piracy on their ships. Of course, these countries should dole out some payments for these security services - that would include South Korean, Taiwanese, and Japanese investments in India, especially in infrastructure.

Technological Leap
All three, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are bastions of technological innovation. This is where India can partner with all of them, to design and manufacture new breed of weaponry. It will benefit these countries as well as India.

There ought to be more intensive exchange of Students with these countries.

Containment of PRC
The only two credible vectors of putting pressure on the Chinese is in my opinion through Vietnam (conventional power) and through Afghanistan and Central Asia (sub-conventional power).

India should see to it that Vietnam receives sufficient cooperation to make it as strong a military and economic power as possible. India should also proliferate nuclear weapons technology to Vietnamese. India can start by setting up nuclear plants in Vietnam and giving Vietnamese critical knowledge of nuclear tech.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, it is one of the most efficient generator of Jihadism, and Uighur Jihadism can be nurtured there with sufficient plausible deniability. First order of the day would however be retaking PoK and breaking up Pakistan.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:10 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread


ramana wrote:
So untanglement is needed to create strategic space for India. Saying SOKO etc are not enough is not acceptable.. Then what is proposed?
After a lot of thought I think SoKo is the one.
Let us see.


South Korea is not the game-changer in East Asia. North Korea is the free radical. If India wants to change the game, then India would have to go through North Korea.

How many countries in the world would rather have North Korea to point their nuclear missiles someplace else other than at South Korea or Japan?!

The question is, can India come close to North Korea without jeopardizing India's relations with Japan and South Korea?! If yes, then India should consider helping the North Korean Supertanker change its course towards animosity with China.

North Korea is perhaps the state under most pressure in the world, and would be grateful for any help. In fact Indian bonhomie with North Korea could piss off China even more than some gesture towards Taiwan. Maybe North Korea would be happy to get another friendly country to balance off Chinese influence over them.

JMTs


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:10 
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China denies sending troops to PoK, complains of conspiracy

Quote:
Beijing, September 02, 2010
China on Thursday dismissed reports saying troops of the People's Liberation Army are in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The New York Times ran an opinion piece last week which said up to 11,000 soldiers of the People's Liberation Army were in Gilgit, a northwest area of PoK."The story that has deployed some military in the northern part of Pakistan is totally groundless and out of ulterior purposes," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said at a regular briefing.

"Some people are making fabrications to destroy relations between China, Pakistan and India but their attempt will arrive nowhere," she said.

The piece by Selig Harrison, director of the Asia program at the US-based Center for International Policy, said China wants control of the region to get clear road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. It said many of the soldiers are working on a railway link.

The article comes amid reports of military unease between China and India.


I saw a post that says PRC confirms the presence of its soldiers in POK but clarifies that they are there to work on construction projects. Please post if found.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:12 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: China's North East

ramana wrote:
RajeshA, The idea is to do the same as PRC i.e. support those US allies who are against PRC. How does supporting NoKo work from this Point of View? It doesn't.
Having said that I support Korean re-unification as NoKo is one of the last holdouts of Asian Socialism. Supporting SoKo achieves the secondary objective of Korean Re-unification which has its own dynamics in the North East Asia.


ramana garu,

On further thinking and some research, my thinking on this has evolved a bit, though some sound strategy still eludes me. So some thoughts:

>> Have we given sufficient thought to how a united Korea would deal with China?

I am of the impression, that North Korea has multi-dimensional advantages for PRC.
  • It is a proxy to keep Japan and South Korea on the edge.
  • It helps boost China's own sense of importance in East Asia, through the six-party talks, etc.
  • It acts as a conduit for Chinese proliferation to other places - Pakistan, Myanmar, etc.
  • It makes China feel supported in the international arena, with chamchas around it giving vocal support - North Korea, Pakistan.
  • Most importantly, North Korea acts as a levy, a bulwark against China's unraveling.

Some background here.

Ethnic Koreans in China
Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok is the name for Koreans living in China. Their population is around 2 million with many more expatriates from North Korea and South Korea swelling the population to around 2.5 million.

Mostly the younger generation has been integrated into Chinese society. But Korean is still widely spoken in this group. Many of the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok are Buddhists.

Between 2002 and 2006, China conducted the Northeast Project with the help of some 'traitorous' Koreans living in China. It is based on the principle of Zhonghua minzu. {Please use Google Chrome for Translations}, which tries to give all types of Chinese ethnic minorities a single identity.

Korea sees itself as the inheritor of Goguryeo, from which the name Korea originates. With the Northeast Project's efforts to lay claims on Goguryeo as a Chinese regional identity, there is some friction between the Chinese and the South Koreans.

Since a few years there has been an upsurge of anti-Korean sentiment amongst the Chinese. In fact the effort is to make this sentiment take hold among the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok (ethnic Koreans in China). To some extent the South Koreans themselves are responsible. There are some There is some discrimination against Chaoxianzu in Korea. Of course there will be, people tend to be foolish. It is like Cowbelt Indians snigger about the Mongoloid features of people from North-East India. It so happened that these Chaoxianzu have been very active on the Internet and have let other Chaoxianzu back home in PRC know, that they are discriminated and they don't feel Korean, and that they are in fact Chinese.
Wikipedia wrote:
Many Chinese Nationals of Korean descent, known as Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok or highly offensively called Ddong-Po(똥포, Brother of Excrements) {I think, this is propaganda}, also suffer from discrimination. While they believed that common heritage and language would make them fit into the society, they found that they would be looked down upon and mistreated compared to ethnic Koreans coming from wealthier countries. Many work in "3D" jobs, referring to dirty, difficult and dangerous work conditions. With the South Korean economy in recession, many Joseonjok were accused of stealing Korean jobs and were subsequently deported.
Huang Youfu {'traitor'}, an ethnic Korean professor at the Minzu University of China noted that articles written by joseonjok about the discrimination in South Korea was a major source of anti-South Korean sentiment in China amongst netizens.


I would say, this is a process actively encouraged by PRC. In fact, one would have to think, that PRC choose a few amongst the Chaoxianzu {Resident Non-Indian types} and send them as their soldiers to disfigure Korea's image amongst the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok. It is interesting that it is not the Han Chinese that are being used in this anti-Korean campaign but the turncoat Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok.

There has been an upsurge in expressions of anti-Korean feelings amongst the Chinese. I think this is also stage-managed and very effective.

So there seems to be an active campaign in China to turn the Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok against Koreans.

NOTE for South Koreans: You need to mend fences with Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok. You could give all Joseonjok the right to have education in South Korea on a subsidized basis and then go back home to PRC.

North Korea
North Korea acts as chains around the feet of South Korea, in pretty much the same way Pakistan acts against India. In North Korea it is the dynastic autocratic Communism that is used to keep the two apart, and in Pakistan it is Pakistaniyat. Just like there are Mumbai 26/11s to thwart any rapprochement between Pakistan and India (I wouldn't wonder if there was not some Chinese complicity in this), there are North Korean torpedoes sinking South Korean ships for less Sunshine in South Korean policy. It seems to me, that Chinese play their games with several thick layers of plausible deniability.

Anyway as long as the two Koreas are wide apart, and not united, Korea will not be able to lay claims on Korean lands within PRC. It is as simple as that.

Now unlike a weak and sparsely populated Mongolia, which could enforce its claims on Inner Mongolia in PRC; or a fractured Turkic Central Asia, which cannot lay claims on East Turkestan; or a Tibetan people, who live like refugees in Exile, with only a sliver of Tibet in form of Tawang still free of Chinese control, which could not hope to get Tibet back; Korean areas in PRC could very well be claimed by a very developed Korea, and there could be a strong pull. That would start the unraveling of China.

One notices, that there is a tendency to overlook the forest for the trees. North Korea plays such good theater on the world stage, that one would overlook that it is a great smoke and mirrors game being played by the Chinese on the rest of the world.

So we have now a Chinese campaign which states that the best defense lies in offense, and it is based on at least four legs:
  1. Don't let North Korea collapse, and thwart unification with South Korea
  2. Increase the level of disenchantment between ethnic Koreans in China and their South Korean brothers.
  3. Increase South Korean investments in China to a level that even a united Korea, not to speak of South Korea, does not feel emboldened to rock the boat.
  4. Keep South Korea under the American umbrella, so that North Korea has an alibi for not pursuing unification. Another aspect of that is that with American nuclear umbrella, South Korea did not go nuclear even after North Korea conducted their nuclear tests. The American umbrella keeps South Korea weak and dependent.

With respect to China, India needs to develop a strategy which weakens it by thwarting its game plan. That means India should support that all outlying nationalities, that still retain their independent identity, like the Turks, the Mongols, the Tibetans, the Koreans should become stronger and prosperous. Furthermore the sinister propaganda games that China plays ought to come to a naught. The ethnicities imprisoned within China need to retain both their separate identity and the sentiment of unity with their compatriots across the borders. There must also be a steady stream of information from within PRC about mishandling of minorities, and about the courageous resistance of the minorities. For the ethnic minorities within PRC, one needs to find means and ways of supporting them.

As far as Korea is concerned, India should support Korean Unification. South Korea is doing all it can, just like India at the moment is doing with Pakistan, to decrease the tensions between the two countries. However North Korea is a very tough nut to crack. India can use the instances of interdiction of the North Korean vessels sailing in the Indian Ocean to start a dialog with the North Koreans. Furthermore we can also start a dialog with North Koreans on the issue of their exporting missile technology to Pakistanis. We have got a reason to talk to them so let's start talking, and seeing if we can induce a change in their behavior and their understanding of the means to secure their national interests.

Often the issue with militarized regimes is not that they are paranoid, which is also a issue, but rather that they have an interest in status quo, as they feel their maximum benefit is derived from status quo. Perhaps the current players in East Asian scene - Japan, USA, South Korea, even Australia have all got an ossified image in North Korea, and it is difficult for North Koreans to change their pattern of thinking with respect to these political players. India could be a new player, and we could bring a completely new behavior and dynamics to our relationships there. The North Korean regime has to be shown that there can be more benefit in change than in status quo.

Perhaps Indians can invest in North Korea and put up some factories there, producing stuff for export to other markets in East Asia and beyond. May be North Korean regime would be willing to let Indians in, where it is suspicious of investments coming from elsewhere.

These are just some random ideas.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:14 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: China's North East

Image

Three Kingdoms of Korea: Goguryeo, Silla, Baekje.

One can see the area of 'Greater Korea' which is part of PRC and where the Ethnic Koreans (Chaoxianzu/Joseonjok) live in China.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:17 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: Counter-Alliance Framework

India's aim should be nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

That is the only means of stopping Chinese hegemony in East Asia.

The countries (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) have become too docile in the shadow of USA. There needs to be an alternative Asian military alliance countering China and its pitthus like NoKo, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

Such an alliance should have India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan as its core members. Each alliance member should make an effort to strengthen the position and capability of others. Australia and Singapore should also be considered.

India along with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan should have both nuclear weapons and means to deliver them anywhwere in China.

USA should be given only observer status. That is good for USA and good for the alliance. It should look like an Asian initiative.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:22 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Manishw ji,

Vietnam is crucial because only Vietnam has sufficient tough boy image to act as a middleman for nuclear proliferation in the region, e.g. to Taiwan.

Secondly in East Asia, Vietnam would be the first base of revolt against Chinese hegemony, after whom then others can folloe suit. Vietnam would be the first country to have the guts to go nuclear.

Moreover possession of nukes is a great equalizer, both strategic and psychological.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:25 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

abhishek_sharma wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
India's aim should be nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.



The Japanese have started a new drama w.r.t. civilian nuclear cooperation. See SSridhar's post in the Japan thread.


As SSridhar garu, mentioned in that post, this is only show for the gallery. The Japanese are more than aware about India's stand and India's security compulsions.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:26 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

Venkarl ji,
I agree with you on your assessment of the timespan required to create the military alliance.

Below is what Joint Operating Environment 2010 Report (pdf), a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command released on Feb. 18, 2010 had to say about preparedness of Japan and Korea to go nuclear.
JOE 2010 Page 45 wrote:
Several friends or Allies of the United States, such as Japan and South Korea are highly advanced technological states and could quickly build nuclear devices if they chose to do so.


The Joint Operating Environment 2008 Reports (pdf) states
JOE 2008 Page 32 wrote:
Furthermore, there are three threshold nuclear states, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, which have the capacity to become nuclear powers quickly.


Some commentary on the above report: S. Korea, Japan Can Build Nuclear Weapons Quickly by Jung Sung-ki: Korea Times
Quote:
The latest assessment of South Korea's nuclear capability comes as Seoul and Washington are negotiating an extension of a 1974 agreement that bans South Korea from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel without consent from the United States.

The agreement expires in 2014. South Korea wants to regain the rights to reprocess spent fuel rods by its own will. The country, which won a $20 billion contract in December to build four nuclear reactors in the United Arab Emirates, has long complained that the restrictions on the reprocessing work has blocked its aspirations.

South Korea is recognized globally as a pioneer in the study of the "pyprocessing" method aimed at reprocessing spent fuel without extracting weapons-grade plutonium from it.

The U.S. government fears South Korea's reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel might undermine global nonproliferation efforts, and provoke the North, and then Japan, making the security situation in Northeast Asia more volatile.


So yes USA is keeping Japan and South Korea down. That was USA's strategy to be the top dog and have everybody dependent on their nuclear umbrella. However the speed with which USA is being forced from its world dominating position, USA too may have to rethink its alliances strategy, that an alliance is strong if the members are strong. At least that should be the working principle for India and our search for an alliance.

India needs to provide confidence to Japan and South Korea to try to stand up on their own two military feet, and keep USA as ally but show the ally the middle finger when the ally tries to keep you down. North Korea provides both Japan and South Korea the perfect foil to also go nuclear. In fact, some public acrimony between South Korea and USA would go a long way in refurbishing South Korea's image in the eyes of North Korea, as an independent minded nation, which is positive for the sake of reunification.

At the moment Taiwan has again tilted towards China, but Taiwan is by no means a lost cause. But Taiwan certainly needs world recognition to feel that it is not losing out on the game against PRC. Having Taiwan in the Asian Security Alliance is essential for many reasons. First of all, nobody wants to give the impression to the Chinese people, that the alliance has anything against the Chinese people. The Chinese people are not the enemy - only CPC and PLA are considered dangerous and overbearing, and they need to be contained.

Secondly keeping Taiwan out of China is necessary because China's game-plan is to reconquer all Chinese territories and then proceed to establish Chinese supremacy over Asia. So that game-plan needs to be intercepted in Taiwan.

Also for military and strategic reasons alone it is imperative that Taiwan remains a separate entity.

India should establish full diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and take some convoluted stand, that India supports One-China policy, but recognizes the de-facto situation of having two regimes which speak for China, and until the situation is not clarified between the two regimes, India has decided to recognizes legitimacy of both regimes but only over the areas over which they enjoy suzerainty. Something like that. In fact, the next Chinese provocation in J&K should lead straight to such a recognition - a recognition of reality. India should find a way forward, a formulation for Taiwan and its recognition by other countries as well.

A Taiwan armed to the teeth with missiles and nuclear weapons is the best guarantee of keeping PRC contained in its ambitions.

In all this, something of note is that the Chinese alliance of China, Pakistan, North Korea and Myanmar is made up one strong and the other very weak countries, whereas India should build a security alliance of strong, prosperous and independent partners.

In fact the Chinese Alliance is quite fickle. Pakistan can break up, with several constituents changing sides. Myanmar junta is under siege from the Buddhist clergy and democratic forces. North Korea is an economic basket case. All three could change sides.

China has many weak points, and they need to be exploited.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:29 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

An article on South Korea's militarization program. It is from the aftermath of North Korea's second nuclear weapon test.
Military Bolsters Defense Readiness by Jung Sung-ki: Korea Times
Quote:
sources say, adding that the development of nuclear-powered attack submarines is expected to be considered as an option to counter the North's nuclear threat.


Now South Korea is known for its ship-building. India has a 'prototype' nuclear powered submarine - the INS Arihant. Is that an opportunity for cooperation!


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:33 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

RamaT wrote:
C. Enter into a 'nuclear support' agreement with SoKo/Vietnam where India would be obligated to respond should they be attacked by a nuclear weapon as long as they remain non-nuclear. As an aside, no.. 'giving' N. weapons to any country is not an option.. if done then it will cause huge problems internationally vis-a-vis US, EU, etc. Would not be a smart move.


One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.

RamaT wrote:
I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?


Something like:"Managing China's Rise" :D
I think this thread is okay for discussions on countering China.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:34 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

krisna wrote:
WRT to china, the only places where china can invade or get invaded are through vietnam and korean borders though korean border is hilly. The borders of burma/laos are full of jungles and hilly terrains. India is of course through Himalayas via illegally occupied Tibet.

China has lost millions in its land wars in Korean peninsula and Vietnam.
I would not advocate any military intervention. Banish the thought.


krisna ji,
I don't think, anybody is really subscribing to entering into a land war with China.

The goals on the table are:
  1. Not to let China roughshod over the interests of the major countries in the neighborhood.
  2. Should PRC become weak in the future, to reclaim its areas or make them independent, areas like Tibet, East Turkestan, parts of Manchuria, all without too much bloodshed.

krisna wrote:
IMHO new clear help to east asia is not a wise move. It will create a pandora’s box.
Though countries surrounding china are asking for crossing the new clear threshold uncle will resist it as long as it can. It does not want more new clear powers. Its dominance as superpower will be questioned. There will be no weak powers because having new clear capability will prevent uncle behaving as world policeman. Every country will behave as a rascal. Not only china will be checkmated due to proximity of new clear weapons but uncle and other countries like India also. Remember all the countries in East Asia are not inherently stable. Even korea went through some political/military crisis in the past.

India will be under enormous pressure if it does something like china did to Pakistan. India also would not do it. Short of behaving like china, the possibility exists for defence cooperation- ex- brahmos/tejas/agni/naval etc etc. along with economic one.


I do not think that countries in East Asia, namely Japan, South Korea, or even Taiwan are overly instable.

US power is dependent on its unquestioned primacy and its aggressiveness when challenged. China's military and political build up is going to be a big challenge for USA - how to not look weak. The moment USA starts looking weak, its hold over its allies too would evaporate. So it really depends on PRC, when USA is forced to blink. The day the allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan think that USA can't or won't stand up to PRC, American domination is gone.

This is bound to happen sooner or later.

When that happens, Japan and South Korea could go nuclear the next time China seems threatening. USA objections would remain only in the media.

Except of a certain tension between Japan and South Korea, there is a clear sympathy towards other countries in the aforementioned security alliance. The thing is, except for Indonesia, most other countries' core interests lie in East Asia, and in East Asia, China is the 800 pound gorilla and will stay threatening to these other countries for a long time to come. With China as the primary challenge, most other countries' attention would stay fixed on China. Their nuclear arsenals are not threatening to India. India is not going to be venturing into East Asia, claiming any form of dominance there.

Of course the nukes with these countries threaten US primacy in East Asia, but with changing security equilibrium in East Asia, there is not much what US can do about it.

krisna wrote:
No one can remove uncle from the east asia even if the countries ask for it. It will stay in the pacific ocean surrounding china. We have to work with uncle, still retain enough independence to do what we think is right for our geopolitical interests. At times we will be in sync with uncle sometimes against it. So be it.


Yes we have to work with USA, but it also needs to taken down a peg or two, not necessarily by us. USA is hampering the independent thinking of other countries of their own strategic interests.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:35 
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X-Posted from US and PRC relationship & India Thread

Checkmating China: Nuclearization of East-Asia

RamaT wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.


This is not a smart idea.. already we have seen in the past 10 years what happens when advanced technologies are not available, we would re-visit the same. Also, agreements are worth the paper they are written on.. and if we piss of US in this after they carved space for us then they will use one of the many provisions against non-proliferation in the agreement to toss us out, guaranteed.


I think we are looking here too much from a prism of today. 10-15 years down the line, the situation would be immensely different. Nobody will be able to push India around so easily then.

RamaT wrote:
Defence pacts are better long-run anyway.. notice how Nato members are always attentive to US concerns? Imagine if a must-defend pact was signed with Japan with regards to Nuclear attack.. there would be huge inflows of Japanese money and technology. Also, one of the things the Japanese will need over the next 20 years is workers.. where do we want them to go.. Us or PRC?


Let's be honest about it. If Tokyo is turned to rubble by NoKo or by the Puppeteer-in-Chief China, would India be willing to kill millions of Chinese and to expect a nuclear retaliation in one of our large cities. I don't think we would. And if we feel this inhibition, China will smell that too. So this strategy would not work.

However if China attacks any country conventionally, then India could get involved conventionally. The inhibition threshold to that is much less. The alliance should give each one a multiplier effect at the military and strategic level. China is threatening each country of this alliance with some nuclear proxy - Pakistan and NoKo. Why can't this alliance have multiple nuclear weapons power centers as well?

Nuclear Umbrellas work when the alliance partners are too strongly connected, e.g. France a few years back offered Germany its nuclear umbrella, and it provoked some amusement in Berlin and elsewhere. But that amusement was simply because Germany was not under any siege. However the principle was sound. France's and Germany's security is intertwined. They are close neighbors. India and the other countries in East Asia have less sentimental and real connections. These can be built over the next decades, but at the moment these are not there. India could offer nuclear umbrella to Bhutan, Sri Lanka or other countries on our periphery.

In another case, America or Soviet Union could spread their nuclear umbrellas over their alliance partners because they were superpowers in comparison to their alliance partners, and both were an equal match. Superpowers can take such responsibilities. China is a larger adversary than India and the reason why this military alliance makes sense is because through an alliance, together we would be strong enough to contain China. Alone each country has its insecurities about China, but there is an awareness that there is strength in numbers. India's offer of a nuclear umbrella will be neither earnest nor convincing - neither for our future alliance partners nor for our adversaries.

Even in NATO there were three nuclear powers, and they could work in cooperation.

However nothing against Japanese investments in India.

RamaT wrote:
I looked, your post sounded like there was such a thread already created.. didn't see it in first two pages. We can keep it here but then we should probably rename it as the last 2 pages have had very little to do with the US & PRC relationship. 'Managing China's Rise' works for me.. will you create it? Thanks.


No there is no such thread as yet. I was of the opinion that this thread was for discussing strategic issues. Initially such strategic issues were deemed relevant only in the context of China, India and USA. This last week we have started exploring the strategic issues from a broader context. But this is the correct thread for such discussions even though the naming is restrictive.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:37 
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Checkmating China: Recognition of Taiwan

I don't think we should play with Taiwan question if the only purpose is to irk China. Taiwan would not appreciate that either. We should try to establish relations with Taiwan which are sincere. Should India improve the level of diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, Taiwan would be more than ready to invest its treasure in India, but our stance should be nuanced, well-formulated, well-timed, and sincere.

India's gestures and offers should have substance and retain credibility.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:38 
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Manishw wrote:
Rajesh Ji,
The policy should be to do what is right for India as Panda is doing for itself.We should keep it's concerns in mind to the extent that it keeps our concern's in its mind which to me seems to be zero.


I said that in the context of creating a grand Asian Security Alliance between India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Indonesia at its core, and Australia and Singapore in addition, with USA given only an observer status.

You're, I believe, saying that from today's context, where there is no such alliance, nor any initiative to build any such alliance.


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Checkmating China: Counter-Alliance Framework

krisna wrote:
To become a superpower it must have unquestioned hegemony in its own backyard. Deny that then china is not a superpower. this is a long drawn out affair if played well. India has patience and determination but perseverance is key for long run. GOI should formulate policies looking at the geopolitical aspects for long term.


krisna ji,

That is the key to containing China - by not allowing it any supremacy in any region.

Now the thing is China is a Pacific Ocean Power while India is an Indian Ocean Power. China's strategy has been to box us in in South Asia. India has to have a similar strategy - to box China in in East Asia.

China wanted to box us in in South Asia, by building up our neighbors militarily and as our adversaries, to a level at which we feel strategically constrained. India should follow the same principle - to box in China in East Asia, by supporting countries there through the Asian Security Alliance, countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. These countries if they become nuclear powers would neutralize the big psychological shadow that China throws. China would become just one of the 7 nuclear weapons power in East Asia (PRC, North Korea <-> Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam; Russia).

India on the other hand could become the unquestioned Indian Ocean Region Superpower. From the Asian Security Alliance we would still be having Indonesia in our neighborhood, but it need not be a nuclear weapons power. Pakistan would eventually collapse. Myanmar can be brought over to the side of the Jedis :wink: . India should be able to push back Chinese intrusion in the Indian Subcontinent.

While the White Bishops and Rooks will stand against the Black Queen (PRC) in East Asia, the Black Queen has only pawns up against us (though very troublesome pawns). If we play the game just as well as China, the containment field against China would be far more sturdier than what they can put up against us. {Black-White not to be understood in any racist way, please}

So we deny them unquestioned hegemony in East Asia and Central Asia and lock them out of South Asia. That in fact makes India an unquestioned power in IOR and checkmates Chinese ambitions to be the dominant power in any region of Asia, and thereby the world.

The point to note is that China should really be checkmated in East Asia using rooks and bishops and not merely pawns. For that reason, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnamese should go nuclear.


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Manishw wrote:
^ Agree more or less Rajesh Ji.Just like to add that India should prepare for a thrust into Tibet and P.O.K along with what you have mentioned.


P.O.K is the low hanging fruit and should be taken actively and with vigor. Tibet is a different cup of fruit and will probably fall off, when there is a strong wind blowing through China. We can of course contribute to that wind.


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krisna wrote:
China has major presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir: US based Gilgit activist
Quote:
China has massive presence in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, said a US-based activist from Gilgit who added that massive investments were made by Beijing in that frontier region to expand the Karakoram Corridor as a strategic pathway.

Washingon-based political activist Senge H. Sering, who was in India for over a year until March 2010 as Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), warned the Indian government about the Chinese presence over the years in Pakistani Kashmir.


advantages to china to have POK under its control--- mainly economic also military
Quote:
1)rapid connectivity to Pakistani ports lying in the gateway to the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal.
2) The region's close proximity to Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India, in addition to Tibet and Xinjiang, gives China diplomatic, strategic, logistical and political gains,
3) by linking the KH to Pakistani ports like Gwadar and Ormara, China will not just gain a strategic footprint and access to Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf but also could significantly influence the geopolitics and trade in the Indian Ocean Region as well as Central Asia.
the Gwadar-Karakoram Corridor combination endows China with a massive logistical advantage by significantly reducing the original distance of 16,000 km to a mere 2,500 km for the Chinese industrial areas to the Persian Gulf.
'Similarly, Kashgar, which is 3,500 km away from Chinese eastern shores, finds itself at less than 1,500 km from Pakistani ports near the Strait of Hormuz,'


Problems to India--

1) Opening of the north west flanks in J&K we might have to face them instead of bakis :evil:
2) we are cut off from the oil and gas rich central Asia physically. We cannot access them period. Air and sea are not aviable option considering the geographic locations. Central asia map
3) POK becomes china occupied territory thus legitimising it. Even if illegal china will not vacate it because of the military economic potential. India should have overwhelming superiority to vacate them which is not possible for few decades unless china ruptures internally(fat chance)

Even though the reports are suspicious from uncle, it is time for us to awake and cast a glance around our own backyard.


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Quote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
Pakistan: China’s other North Korea
By Shri K Subramanyam.

krisna wrote:
^^^^
wrt KS article he does not spell out India's cards. keeping close to his chest. Will have to watch out for it.

china seems to have true friends only with dysfunctional states- NoKo and Pakis.
Unfortunately for us- pakis is our rabid neighbour assidously courted by the dlagon.
India can break the strange hold by unravelling pakistan which could be the key to the whole business.
Tibet card could be the other issue to unravel china.
Of course both are easier than done.
Can US be the Jambavantha to Indian Hanuman.
Just speculating :?:


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:51 
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krisna wrote:
x posted from geopolitical thread
Turkmenistan inks deal on Afghanistan pipeline
Quote:
Afghanistan and the Central Asian republic Turkmenistan have agreed to build a gas pipeline through Afghanistan, despite the ongoing security concerns in the country.

Quote:
The planned 1680-kilometre pipeline, which had been under discussion for more than a decade, is due to supply up to 33 billion cubic metres of gas per year from 2015, mostly to India and also to Pakistan, the report said.


Quote:
Turkmenistan holds the world's fourth largest gas reserves, which are also eyed by the European Union.


Quote:
Turkmenistan recently also opened pipelines to China and to Iran.

Iran, Pakistan Loom Large in Caspian Basin Pipeline Developments

Quote:
Pakistan is one of the chief proponents of the so-called TAPI pipeline, which would deliver natural gas from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Islamabad and India.

Quote:
While TAPI developments have garnered headlines, another deal involving Pakistan stands a better chance of delivering results. At the end of June, Iran and Pakistan announced that they had finalized the negotiations on a 1,100-kilometer-long pipeline that would carry Iranian gas to Pakistan. This $7.5-billion project would allow Iran to supply Pakistan with up 750 million cubic feet of gas daily, starting in 2014.

Quote:
But in July, India revealed that it had reopened discussions with Iran on two different pipeline options. One of these was the revival of the so-called IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) route. And the second involved a new project, which would involve the construction of an underwater pipeline connecting Iran and India. Iran naturally has trumpeted India’s volte-face as a major diplomatic victory, one that undermines US economic isolation efforts.


Quote:
The mere possibility of such projects coming to fruition undermines Washington’s attempts to isolate Iran, and can validate the utility of playing the energy card in Iranian eyes. Second, China has clearly expressed interest in a pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and from there to China. Indeed, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has suggested that if India does not get back into the project, the pipeline could be renamed the Iran-Pakistan-China route. So clearly there is more to the story than South and Central Asia.


Unlikely for beggaristan to oppose uncle publicly or go ahead in its oil pipeline. OTOH may cry beg and steal nuclear deal similar to the one India got from uncle. Despite uncle refusing it bakis are persistent or else dlagon gives it.
dlagon entering the picture makes it tough for India.
If only POK was in our hands a lot of issues would have been settled- direct access to central asia, afghanisthan being our neighbour. blocking china across to pakistan.
The more developments occur in POK like the pipelines roads and railways across to china the more resistant will be china to give up on POK. Also it will prop up this beggar along with uncle though both do it for different reasons.
Net effect will a loss for India.
Already panda is saying that Kashmir is disputed but not POK-- legalising everything on pakis side. However much India shouts in world forums it will carry little weight as panda or pakis give little on the ground.
India should do more shadow boxing behind the scenes :arrow: exploit the disturbances in pakiland and balkanise it.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:52 
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krisna wrote:
A Himalayan rivalry
Quote:
Asia’s two giants are still unsure what to make of each other. But as they grow, they are coming closer—for good and bad


Quote:
India now has three army corps—about 100,000 troops—in its far north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which includes Tawang.
With another corps in reserve, and a few Sukhoi fighter planes deployed last year to neighbouring Assam, they are a meaty border force,

Quote:
The 1962 war was an act of Chinese aggression most obviously springing from China’s desire for western Aksai Chin, a lofty plain linking Xinjiang to Tibet. But its deeper causes included a famine in China and economic malaise in both countries.
:?:
Quote:
Over 70% of India’s exports to China by value are raw materials, chiefly iron ore, bespeaking a colonial-style trade relationship that is hugely favourable to China. :evil: A proliferating range of Chinese non-tariff barriers to Indian companies, which India grumbles about, is a small part of this. The fault lies chiefly with India’s uncompetitive manufacturing. It is currently cheaper, an Indian businessman says ruefully, to export plastic granules to China and then import them again in bucket-form, than it is to make buckets in India. :((


Quote:
the 4,000km border that runs between the two countries. Nearly half a century after China’s invasion, it remains largely undefined and bitterly contested.


Quote:
This(arunachal pradesh) 890km stretch of frontier was settled in 1914 by the governments of Britain and Tibet, which was then in effect independent, and named the McMahon Line after its creator, Sir Henry McMahon, foreign secretary of British-ruled India. For China—which was afforded mere observer status at the negotiations preceding the agreement—the McMahon Line represents a dire humiliation.
No role for china so how come they are humiliated when they dont rule Tibet. :!:
Quote:
Despite several threatened dust-ups—including one in 1986 that saw 200,000 Indian troops rushed to northern Tawang district—there has been no confirmed exchange of fire between Indian and Chinese troops since 1967.


Quote:
Both countries appointed special envoys,(2003 onwards) who have since met 13 times, to lead the negotiations that followed. This led to an outline deal in 2005, containing the “guiding principles and political parameters” for a final settlement. Those included an agreement that it would involve no exchange of “settled populations”—which implied that China had dropped its historical demand for Tawang.


China fears encirclement -
India coming close to uncle exemplied by the new clear deal signified it.
Quote:
he United States has sought to strengthen security ties with South-East Asian countries, including Vietnam and Indonesia. It has also called on China, in an unusually public fashion, to be more accommodating over contested areas of the South China Sea—where America and India share concerns about a Chinese naval build-up, including the construction of a nuclear-submarine base on the Chinese island of Hainan. In north-east Asia, America has launched military exercises with South Korea in response to North Korea’s alleged sinking of a South Korean warship in March. Some Chinese analysts, with ties to the government, consider these a direct challenge to China.


Dlagon fears India getting close to Japan/ASEAN/Australia
Quote:
It is also unimpressed by a growing closeness between India and Japan, its main Asian rival. Japanese firms are, for example, expected to invest $10 billion, and perhaps much more, in a 1,500km “industrial corridor” between Delhi and Mumbai. In 2007 Japanese warships took part in a naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal, also involving Indian, Australian and Singaporean ships and the American nuclear-powered vessels USS Nimitz and USS Chicago, which was hosted by India and was the biggest ever held in the region.


India's fears wrt china- string of pearls strategy
Quote:
China has also made big investments in all India’s neighbours. It is building deepwater ports in Pakistan and Bangladesh, roads in Nepal and oil and gas pipelines in Myanmar. Worse, it agreed in 2008 to build two nuclear-power plants for its main regional ally, Pakistan—a deal that also worried America, who saw it as a tit-for-tat response to its nuclear deal with India. (China has become Pakistan’s biggest supplier of military hardware, including fighter jets and guided-missile frigates, and in the past has given it weapons-grade fissile material and a tested bomb design as part of its nuclear support.)


Tibet issue-
Quote:
Its fugitive :twisted: :twisted: Dalai Lama and his “government-in-exile” have found refuge in India since 1959—and China blames him, and by extension his hosts, for the continued rebelliousness in his homeland.
bad hatchet job
Quote:
This visit, from which leftover banners of welcome still festoon the town’s main bazaar, perhaps reminded China why it is so fixated on Tawang—as a centre of the Tibetan Buddhist culture that it is struggling, all too visibly, to control.
khujili in the dlagon's musharraff.
Quote:
Indeed, many Indian pundits consider that China will never settle the border, and so relinquish a potential source of leverage over India, while the 75-year-old lama is alive.
After his death, China will attempt to control his holy office as it has those of other senior lamas.

Only if Tibetans agree
Quote:
The Dalai Lama has already indicated that he may choose to be “reborn” outside China. There is talk of the important role Tawang has often played in identifying incarnations of the Dalai Lama, or even that the 14th may choose to reincarnate in Tawang itself.
double treble khujili for dlagon musharraff.

The article is clearly slanted in favour of the chinese.

it has not been posted here- checked the last few pages, if missed apologies.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:53 
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krisna wrote:
krisna wrote:
^^^^
wrt KS article he does not spell out India's cards. keeping close to his chest. Will have to watch out for it
.

china seems to have true friends only with dysfunctional states- NoKo and Pakis.
Unfortunately for us- pakis is our rabid neighbour assidously courted by the dlagon.
India can break the strange hold by unravelling pakistan which could be the key to the whole business.
Tibet card could be the other issue to unravel china.
Of course both are easier than done.
Can US be the Jambavantha to Indian Hanuman.
Just speculating :?:


contering china
Quote:
There can be no doubt that China is trying to apply pressure on India through measures like refusing a visa to India’s Northern Army Commander in Jammu and Kashmir, issuing stapled visas to people from that state visiting China, undertaking large-scale projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and discussing the possibility of limited war against India. The New York Times has reported that 7,000-11,000 Chinese troops have been deployed in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and that the area is closed to the world. Questions are naturally being raised in India as to why the Chinese are indulging in such pressure tactics at this stage.

why is china behaving like this towards India
Quote:
Meanwhile, the Chinese aim is to assert itself as the dominant power in Asia. They see India as the only hindrance to their achieving that aim, in view of India’s comparable population, its likely advantage of a youth bulge as China ages and its growth slows down, and the developing Indo-US strategic partnership.

Quote:
China has been using Pakistan to counter India by arming it with nuclear weapons, missiles and conventional weapons. India as a poverty-free country having one of the largest knowledge pools in the world is challenged on two sides by the religious-extremist fundamentalism of Pakistan and the single-party state ideological fundamentalism of China. Moreover, they are bonded together by their nuclear and missile proliferation relationship.

Both countries are interested in fragmenting India. Both have tried to encourage extremist and secessionist groups within the country in J&K, the North-east and the Maoist areas. It is therefore natural for China and Pakistan to attempt to ensure that US President Barack Obama’s forthcoming visit to India does not take the Indo-US relationship further forward. China has questioned India’s sovereignty over Kashmir with its stapled visas and denial of a visa to India’s Northern Army Commander, and its ostensible military presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir/Pakistan has activated its ‘sleeper agents’ in various Kashmiri towns to stage stone-pelting protests.


Quote:
In a move to reassure Pakistan, China has discussed in its media the possibility of a limited war against India, copying the Indian debate on the ‘cold start’. China wants to duplicate the Indo-US nuclear deal by offering two more reactors to Pakistan in defiance of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines.


How to counter china
Quote:
We should learn from China. In 1971 China was a nuclear weapon power with thermo-nuclear weapons and missiles. Yet, when it faced the Soviet Union after the Ussuri clashes, it felt the need for allies, overt or covert. Though it had fought the US in the Korean war and lost 150,000 lives, including that of Mao Zedong’s pilot son, it entered into an entente with the US against the Soviet Union.

China made available to the US monitoring stations in Xinjiang against Soviet missile tests and subsequently developed close economic relations with the US, which made China the economic and military power it is today. China’s communist ideology did not come in the way of its national security interests. It was to demonstrate to China the credibility of the US as a covert ally that Kissinger ordered the USS Enterprise mission into the Bay of Bengal during the last days of the Bangladesh war.

The Chinese are masters of statecraft and strategy. In the wake of Chiang Kai-shek’s defeat, when they faced a hostile United States, they allied themselves with the Soviet Union, and when they had problems with the USSR, they switched to a covert alliance with the US. Once the Soviet Union was dissolved and was no longer a threat, China became Russia’s largest arms market. National security interests and not ideology become the primary determinant of national strategy.


Past events which have helped India-
1971 Indo Soviet treaty
Mig 21 by Krishna Menon.

How does India go about it--

Quote:
Times have changed, as has the international strategic milieu. Even while retaining Russia as a friend in the Asian context, India has to develop a new balance of power equation to deal with the challenge from China and Pakistan not merely to our external security but to our national development as a pluralistic, secular and democratic nation. India too has its ancient strategic wisdom, preached in the Panchatantra, Hitopadesa and Arthasastra, encompassing sama (cooperation), dhana (buying up), bedha (causing division) and dhanda (use of force). It is time to invoke that ancient wisdom and devise an appropriate international strategy to counter the Chinese-Pakistani challenge.


Good article gives some think to chew about the ways to go and deal with the menace of panda infected with rabid animal.
It does not reveal everything in black or white.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:54 
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krisna wrote:
What is China's problem with India?
frivtion between the himalayan rivals
Quote:
No one quite knows what drives China's policies towards its neighbour India

Quote:
In strategic circles, Chindia is a four-letter word. China barely figured on India's security consciousness a decade ago. Today, among a younger generation, it may be slowly supplanting Pakistan as India's bogeyman. It doesn't help China is a closed society when it comes to policy-making.

4 theories why this is happening-
1) school of confusion-
Quote:
India's policies were marked by political drift and long periods of inactivity. China's were coloured by its disdain for India. China is still trying to work out what are India's red lines.
Regarding J&K-
Quote:
Refusing a visa to Lieutenant General B S Jaswal, admit some Indian officials, may simply reflect a Chinese assumption India isn't overly excited about the issue. After all, New Delhi didn't kick up much fuss about the stapled visa issue. The decision to merely disallow such visa holders from traveling was a relatively passive response. And India barely raised an eyebrow when a Chinese vice foreign minister said his country was prepared to mediate on Kashmir.
begs the question what are India's core interests and the red lines where china will be taken to task diplomatically.
2) school of indifference-china uninterested in India-
Quote:
They see a country politically too chaotic and culturally too confused to be a contender for the Asian high table. The result is an India policy that is driven by short term considerations.
The juicy sound bytes on Indian borders tp prop their etch and dee inside china and to "feel good" factor for their all weather friend wrt J&K.
Quote:
By this school of thinking, the visa refusal was not a carefully calculated move. It was an ad hoc attempt at keeping Pakistan happy, a country whose suicidal tendencies worry even China these days. That this would infuriate India was expected. But Beijing's leadership would see that as a small price to pay because India's reaction would be seen as being of no consequence.

3) school of rivalry-
Quote:
India is closing the gap when it comes to economic growth rates. And such diplomatic successes as the Indo-US nuclear deal have made the Middle Kingdom worry about an anti-China great power combination. Because of past historical humiliations, Beijing is particularly sensitive about border disputes.
Quote:
Chinese analyst Dai Bing admits that "while a hot war is out of the question, a cold war between the two countries is increasingly likely."

Quote:
Beijing's response is to keep pushing the envelope, reminding India and the world there is only one superpower-in-the-making in Asia. Whether it is the border, Pakistan or projecting military power into the Indian Ocean, the message to New Delhi is that it would be best to come to terms with the Big Boss.
reminds me of the story of the monkeys and man with a stick.
Quote:
Malik says manufacturing new disputes to put the other side off balance is an old negotiating tactic in Chinese statecraft.

J&K-Box down India by raising J&K issue
Quote:
Says Malik, "Chinese supremacy in Asia is contingent upon having smaller and weaker, compliant states on China's periphery."
India can pay back with interest.
4) school of military-
Quote:
The Chinese army believes Beijing should be more assertive about the country's 'core interests'," says former Research and Analysis Wing analyst B Raman. "Retired officers often write that self-respect means being tough about national interests." India intrudes into many of the issues the military sees as important: Tibet, Pakistan, Myanmar and naval security (India hardly raises stink about Tibet, china is blatantly propping up pakistan with nuclear proliferation and interfering in India's affairs,Myanmar is not chinese protectorate. Naval security is for Indian security because of its vast coastline and important trade routes.It would nice on chinese part to be friendly instead of sabre rattling) . The latter is rising Chinese strategic concern, writes Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation, because Beijing faces "an unprecedented reliance on the seas for China's economic well-being".

J&K- china worried about xinjaing hence the support to pakistan inreturn for possible reducing tensions with uighurs.
Quote:
While Malik says there is only one India policy in Beijing, "the PLA has always played a key role in policy towards the Korean peninsula, Taiwan and India".


previously india was bogged down with pakistan and did not give importance to china due to it. Now pakistan slowly going down the tubes, India is realising of late the nature of the dragon. it is trying to formulate a better strategy to keep up with it.
China has the feeling that India is a serious threat to its global ambitions and better to put it down. pakistan is not helping it as expected due to its internal dynamics tearing it apart. No wonder china is raising the stakes by openingly needling India frequently.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:56 
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krisna wrote:
Among the countries which can help the most in unravelling china is the TSP-Afghanisthan combo.( I mean the POK access to Indian union which can occur only by dissolution of bakistan)
Other countries are second best - ASEAN nations are helpful in trade and commerce. also defence cooperation particularly around malacca straits. It also helps them to keep china at bay(defensively) with India helping them. They will try to balance the 2 powers rather than outrightly go against any one of them.

Why TSP-Afghanisthan combo is crucial and easiest of all (relatively speaking compared to the other options available)-

1) china is growing economically and requires oil and gas for it. its imports are growing day by day. Now it is more than 50%. At present it is through IOR that the oil passes and thru malacca staits.
2) India by nature of its unique geography is bang in the centre and it has the reach from gulf to malacca straits from Indian mainland.
3) Only India can handle china other than of course uncle in IOR. (Russia will not attempt any mischief at present).chinese ships will be sitting ducks to Indian navy. it is also expensive and difficult for chinese forces to come around china to defend their ships.(china will take time to develop a true blue water navy)
4) India is the only dominant power(relative to others) in asia to hinder china's ascendancy to high table (resented by china).

How does china aim to achieve this--
1) To bypass Indian control of IOR it wants access to gwadar. this is the most important consideration of china wrt India. pakistan is sworn enemy of India by virtue of its genes(is). So chinese best bet (also cheapest) is pakistan (helped by fortuitous circumstances of J&K issue in 1947 with POK under pakistan control).--Enemy's enemy is my best friend policy.
2) By developing gwadar ,investing in economy, roads in KKH and elsewhere and railways, weapons etc. Honestly it is easy to keep pakistan happy-- anything to keep India under check- China gives weapons including new clear proliferation, J&K issue noises and visas issues etc to boost their standing among pakis. it also gives a handle to bakis to cock a snook at India. Oil will eventually pass thru pure land to china via POK. It in a way legitimises POK in baki eyes and responsibility to protect it as a jewel in the hope that china will go to war if anything happens to POK as it is their jugular with time to come in future. In return china will give J&K to bakis in case India suffers.
In the outbreak of hostilities between India & china, pakistan will have to be involved as goods are transported transported to china. Hence the need for two front war for India. if it was IOR alone only India china is involved without pakistan.(anyway pakistan involving itself in this war is always there)
3) Developing ports in SL/burma etc to surround India- IMHO this is secondary in case gwadar/pakistan fails. this is not a very effective way but better than nothing in IOR. mostly it will be used for refuelling facilities etc for ships. these can easily be bombed but again involves sovereignty of SL and Burma. This will expand the circle of operations against India by involving SL and Burma .

How can India break this-
We should proclaim that IOR is our neighbourhood to china and it is our core interest. Our interests should be from Afghanisthan to Burma. No questions or arguments here. It is our sphere.
1) By asserting its claim on J&K completely. Already it has parliament resolution on it. It has to be strong and keep making noises on it at every instance.
2) It has to undermine Pakistan and hasten its balkanisation asap. Pakistan is already going down the tubes despite uncle and china making efforts to prop it up with KSA and UK.
3) Having POK , cuts off china completely from bypassing IOR. China has to rely on oil pipes from central Asia/Afghanistan etc to Uighur. No access to gulf.
4) POK helps us to access central Asia/Afghanistan. Also we can develop Afghanistan to improve its conditions. Pakistan and china will not allow this to happen. Also balkanistaion of bakistan will reduce its nuisance potential to Afghanistan and India.
5) Develop ASEAN nations relations w rt defence trade and commerce. It can help both economies. How significant it will be in developing a counter to china is difficult to say. At best it is a distant second to POK access.
6) SL /Nepal/BD should be in our orbit. We should help them develop economically. They should look to India for market access etc. they should also be informed nicely of the problems if china is present in their lands which threatens our nation. By developing them they will be less susceptible to inducements from china.
7) Burma has a long border with India. India has to develop relations with it – damn the western world about the rights etc. Burma can be the sea port for eastern India economy. Mainland India is too far for the seven sister states. We can develop Burma by increasing our trade with it. It will also check china.
8 ) ASEAN nations are building a road from Vietnam to Burma, we should make it traverses to our part also. The economy should be intertwined to our eastern India so it benefits all our nations. So less incentive for them to play against India(thru china).

Less desirable--
1) In case POK is not in India's control- we can still bomb the roads and infrastructure of POK going to china but it will draw in bakistan which can be unpredictable and new clear threat is always there. OTOH both china pakistan are new clear states and unpredictable so it does not matter.

Overall whatever the scenario,
2) Developing relations with the ASEAN nations is important.
3) Keeping SL/Nepal/BD in our orbit. Bhutan is already in our orbit.
4) Balkanising bakis so that 2 front war potential is diminished (not completely) because rump pakjabi can still attack India if hostilities break out with china.
5) Keeping Iran on our side despite uncle asking us otherwise.
6) Raising Tibet issue is important and keep china on tender hooks.
7) Some noises about Taiwan is also imortant. Whether it helps or not is moot. But to keep their mischief potential under check. China raises J&K issue to keep bakis happy. They have no intention of claiming it.
8 ) Develop close relations with uncle without getting suffocated in its embrace.

What India has done so far-
1) Reaching out to ASEAN /Japan/Australian nations- good move
2) Helping BD/SL/Nepal- good moves but not enough. India should do more so that china dose not end up looking better. India's interests dictate it spend and look after them as their our buffer peripherally.
3) Helping Afghanisthan- brilliant move in the long run especially if it helps in breaking bakis. Otherwise it is ok move as pakistan will undo all our work thru talibs unless talibs can be defeated or coopted?????
4) Iranian relations to develop further despite uncle sanctions. India has to bypass them without breaking them.

Quoting KS
Quote:
India too has its ancient strategic wisdom, preached in the Panchatantra, Hitopadesa and Arthasastra, encompassing sama (cooperation), dhana (buying up), bedha (causing division) and dhanda (use of force). It is time to invoke that ancient wisdom and devise an appropriate international strategy to counter the Chinese-Pakistani challenge.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 01:57 
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x posting from US & PRC relationship with India
krisna wrote:
US India should counter china's maritime influence
Quote:
With China increasing its military power and influence in the strategically crucial Indian Ocean, a noted American expert has urged the Obama Administration to partner India to balance and counter Beijing's increasing influence in the region.

Quote:
As the Indian Ocean is becoming increasingly important to China's economic and security interests, Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation said that Beijing appears to be pursuing what has been widely known as a "string of pearls" strategy of cultivating India's neighbours as friendly states, both to protect its economic and security interests
and to balance a "rising India".
Quote:
n the short term, Beijing is concerned about its growing dependence on the sea lanes of communications for sustaining China's economic growth.
In 2010, for the first time, China imported more than 50 per cent of its oil consumption. Chinese President Hu Jintao has already raised the issue of the Malacca Strait.

Quote:
Part of China's interest in developing alternative ports and pipelines, such as in Pakistan and Burma, would seem to be motivated by a desire to reduce the criticality of the Malacca Strait," he said.

Quote:
The growth of the Indian navy means that Chinese economic development is potentially at the mercy of India, as well as the United States. The forging of Indian security links with Japan and the United States is therefore a source of concern," he noted. This is likely an essential part of what is driving

Quote:
That is, China is more intent on cultivating close ties, including but not limited to military ties, with the various South Asian states than necessarily focusing on surrounding and isolating India. The latter is simply a byproduct of the larger goal of ensuring that China's southern flank and the attendant oil lifeline are secure and populated by friendly states," he said.

The article is self explanatory in the behaviour of chinese wrt India.
Developing relations with bakis and using POK is tantamount to screwing India's core interests. bakis help them as anything against India is good for them.
China is roughshoding India's concern. It should be kept in its place by a combination of deft diplomatic moves aimed at breaking china-pakistan friendship which is possible by dissolution of TSP. some of which is enumerated in previous posts.
JMTs.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:05 
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krisna wrote:
China cannot be defeated militarily. No arguments here. Even uncle rules it out unless some mad man creates havoc.
Geography of china- it is not possible to invade china across most parts due to its regions- deserts/moutains and large areas to cover. Coastal areas are well connected. But that is where the majority of high profile assests are present and china is well equipped to defend it. Also it is new clear with long range mijjiles.
Only way china can be co opted with others or reduced in size is by diplomacy and economically which will take years.

some pointers to think about--
1) majority of chinese population is around the great rivers to the south east bordering the asean countries and coastal areas.
2) Rest of the chinese population is thinly spread out over a large territory of xinjaing Tibet and mongolia. hardly areas of significant infrastructure including roads.
3) Population around the coastal areas are richer than their counterparts elsewhere. Overall rich chinese are in a minority to the majority poor chinese.
4) core of china is in these areas around the major rivers of chinese south east. This is the only arable land in china (1/3 of the total china which has to feed the 1 billion population).The rest of the areas act like a buffer zones because these areas are vast and open with poor connectivity.
5) Whenever china is weak (core of china around the river plains) Tibet and mongolia becomes freer. same with xinjaing. When core becomes stronger these areas are reconquered.
6) Faultlines are purely socio economic-a) in the disparity of poor and rich chinese- this is one of the greatest fears of CCP. They want to make sure there is some equality in distribution wealth. it will also help quell the internal disturbances. Currently CCP is spending more money on quelling internal disturbances than on PLA to protect its power structure. b) economy is dependent on exports. It is a manufacturing powerhouse. If the countries like US become protectionist or the people refuse to buy due to bad economy then the chinese economy will suffer. It will lead to again internal disturbances. The main worry for CCP will be improving the economic conditions of the poor chinese so that they consume the goods internally. It will reduce their dependence on exports.
c) many of the cities are polluted and it has some of the worst pollution due to the industrialisation. The environmental impact may take some time. However Chinese are taking some steps to reduce this threat. d) demographics- growing old age and its burden. This can impact the economy some years down the line.

USA
US holds the key to the economy being the largest consumer of Chinese goods. China is trying to diversify its dollar assets. It is a difficult economic relationship between the two.

What India can do is to continue to grow economically, improve its living conditions/infrastructure/reduce income equality among its populations.
China attacking India militarily is very remote due to both being strong to ward of any attacks. Being new clear always helps.Currently china holds advantage as it has pakistan and POK as land route to gulf. It will not do anything to rock this position for now. It will prop up pakistan more than Uncle as US may lose interests if it leaves afghanistan(whether it actually leaves afghanistan is OT here)

ASEAN nations – India can partner with asean nations. Nations like Japan and South Korea can help us in many ways. They have technological base which India can exploit by offering a manufacturing base in India. It also counterbalances there fear of Chinese hegemony.
Laos Cambodia Burma Thailand are other nations which India must keep in mind. Some of them are poor and India can help them immensely by trade and commerce. Also they can make cheap goods similar to china if both US and India can partner here.


South Korea- china is the largest trading partner for south korea. India has been trying to co-opt soko in its plans. There has a been a flurry of visits to South Korea recently with extensive agreements signed in many areas which can benefit India.
But one factor which can help India vis a vis china is reunification-
North Korea and South korea both want reunification but on their own terms. Obviously south Korea is stronger in all respects. North Korea is isolated and has only china to prop up. If china does not support North Korea, it will collapse in a short time. Also recent cheonan incident when North Korea torpedoed South Korea ship and killed some sailors did not go down well in South Korea against china.
North Korea and South Korea are artificial countries and unification is the goal for both. Only china stands between the two. US may not prevent the unification as it will bring North Korea from isolation.It will be advantageous to it and the world in long run with less new clear proliferation by china thru North korea to Iran pakistan and others.
About koreans in china- as mentioned by RajeshA can be added to the above.
India will also have less to worry about green painted noko dung mijjiles across the borders.

edited- among all the countries involved, from Indian POV, control of POK is the best, South Korea comes next best. In terms of china damage it may be the reverse. :?: Of course we cannot isolate individual countries and name the price. FWIW IMHO.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:06 
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U.S. Vietnam nuclear talks focus on enrichment

http://theenergycollective.com/dan-yurm ... enrichment

The WSJ report leads with news that the Obama administration is “in advanced negotiations to share nuclear fuel and technology . . . that would allow Hanoi to enrich its own uranium.”

You think Unkil has figured out that the best way to protect SEAsia from China is to create a bunch nuclear states around the periphery? IOW, doing a Noko/Pakistan on them...

The Chinese have been boasting that the US won't sacrifice LA for Taiwan. Perhaps the message unkil is sending via Vietnam is that two can play the proliferation game and that its past anathema to more nuke state takes a back seat to strategic considerations.

A nuclear Japan or Taiwan would be too immediately provocative—leaving little room for escalation later. Vietnam now, and SOKO to follow. India of course, on the other side of straits.

Perhaps I give too much credit to Andrew Marshall's boys.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:07 
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krisna wrote:
IDSA COMMENT Fruits of Antony’s visit to South Korea: Defence Ties Strengthen further
Quote:
Unlike in the case of South Korea’s relations with Japan, neither India nor South Korean carry any historical baggage. On the contrary, South Korea cherishes with fond memory the major role India played at the conclusion of the Korean War in 1953 when it deployed a brigade to the UN peacekeeping mission which supervised the armistice that brought the conflict to an end.

Quote:
Indeed, Antony’s visit was poised to boost military ties with the East Asian nation amidst a hushed row between India and China over visa denial to an Indian army officer and the presence of Chinese forces in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Beijing denied a visa to the senior Indian army officer because he was serving in Jammu and Kashmir, a state which China considers as disputed.
Coming against the backdrop of reports of a massive Chinese military build-up in Gilgit-Baltistan, the northern area of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the strategic significance of Antony’s visit to South Korea cannot be overlooked.

Quote:
India also has a strategic partnership with Japan and is now strengthening the same with South Korea. China’s alleged complicity in weapon development programmes in Myanmar and Pakistan is beyond doubt. If indeed some kind of “axis” is being formed between China, Pakistan and Myanmar, it would seem legitimate for India to sculpt a similar ‘axis’ with Japan and South Korea as a counterpoise to China’s design.

Quote:
More recently, there has been a new thrust in India’s Look East policy, under which India has been making efforts to step up ties with South East Asian countries such as Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. Understandably enough, India has been focusing on boosting military diplomacy by forging stronger military and strategic ties with foreign nations.

Quote:
Indeed South Korea has marched ahead of Japan in naval ship-building technology and therefore both are seeking synergies in this potential area of cooperation for mutual benefit.4 India has also increased its military, especially maritime, engagement with countries in the Indian Ocean region. The role of the Indian Navy in anti-piracy operations off the Gulf of Aden is well appreciated by many countries in the region whose economic future lies in the smooth conduct of maritime commerce. For both Japan and South Korea, whose dependence on maritime trade off the IOR region is heavy, India’s predominant naval presence in the IOR is a positive factor and cooperation with the Indian Navy becomes inevitable.

Quote:
Indeed, many South Korean companies are vying for Indian armed forces’ equipment acquisition programmes such as the basic trainer aircraft and naval warship construction contracts.

Quote:
Antony acknowledged that the countries of Asia live in a “troubled neighbourhood” and therefore the region is “fragile”. It is a challenge for both India and South Korea to maintain balance and restraint in the face of grave challenges to their security.12 India has already emerged as an integral part of East Asia. As a founding member of the East Asia Summit, India’s stand on the emerging architecture in East Asia is that it should be open and inclusive and therefore in common agreement with the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ decision to welcome the US and Russia into its fold.
china does not like India and US in the group.
Quote:
As against China’s claim over the whole of South China Sea, India has openly declared that the South China Sea should remain open for international navigation, which is likely to provide common ground for both India and South Korea to cooperate on security matters.


Good moves by India. India should leverage its large market and forge an economic and defence relationship. Also likely there will be friction between all the 3 major powers - koreas/japan and china. it will be good for them to have India (likely US will support it)


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:08 
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krisna wrote:
Asia's 'middle powers' seek to balance China -- think-tank
Quote:
Asian "middle powers" are trying to increase their diplomatic and military clout in a bid to counter China's growing power, an international think-tank said in a report on Tuesday.
Indonesia, South Korea and Australia in particular were seeking ways for countries to work together across the region, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Their moves were part of a general trend around the world as the United States and other western nations suffer aftershocks from the global financial crisis and the drain of involvement in Afghanistan.

Quote:
It said there was a "growing awareness of the relentless growth of Chinese economic and military power and a feeling that China asserts itself more in the region."

Quote:
Australia and Vietnam had notably increased their defence spending and invested in submarines and other military technology to deter future Chinese "adventurism." :evil:
Asian countries were also pressing for the involvement of China's fellow Asian giant India as a "balance" for China, though the two offer "comfort" to each other on their stance against the West on climate change.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:10 
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krisna wrote:
WRT to china, the only places where china can invade or get invaded are through vietnam and korean borders though korean border is hilly. The borders of burma/laos are full of jungles and hilly terrains. India is of course through Himalayas via illegally occupied Tibet.

China has lost millions in its land wars in Korean peninsula and Vietnam.
I would not advocate any military intervention. Banish the thought.

IMHO new clear help to east asia is not a wise move. It will create a pandora’s box.
Though countries surrounding china are asking for crossing the new clear threshold uncle will resist it as long as it can. It does not want more new clear powers. Its dominance as superpower will be questioned. There will be no weak powers because having new clear capability will prevent uncle behaving as world policeman. Every country will behave as a rascal. Not only china will be checkmated due to proximity of new clear weapons but uncle and other countries like India also. Remember all the countries in East Asia are not inherently stable. Even korea went through some political/military crisis in the past.

India will be under enormous pressure if it does something like china did to Pakistan. India also would not do it. Short of behaving like china, the possibility exists for defence cooperation- ex- brahmos/tejas/agni/naval etc etc. along with economic one.

The faultlines are mainly economic for china—this has to be exploited fully over the years—have a close economic and defence cooperation with east asia. Things will gather speed on its own, just step on the gas according to the situation.

China can be perpetually kept under check in its backyard just like it is trying to do to India. It is much easier for us than china because the countries surrounding china are much stabler in many ways compared to our neighbourhood and wealthier also. They also have some insecurity regarding china.In our backyard pakistan is the only nutcase, rest are ok.

No one can remove uncle from the east asia even if the countries ask for it. It will stay in the pacific ocean surrounding china. We have to work with uncle, still retain enough independence to do what we think is right for our geopolitical interests. At times we will be in sync with uncle sometimes against it. So be it.

Regarding Taiwan, we can have economic co operation and recognize it. China will make a big issue out of it. There is a big risk that it will immediately recognize POK as legitimate and make sure it stays with its whore. Even without this it is already doing it covertly.
My feeling is India may not rake up the issue at present. Likely it will raise Tibet earlier more than Taiwan. It will be one more ace on our side if we have the guts to really do it.
Right now it already has enough to go about diplomatically around china.
We should also make Mongolia a friend and develop economic co operation. China will make sure it stays in its orbit but we can raise the stakes.


In a nutshell, India should intensify the economic and defence co operation around all countries surrounding china. No exceptions. India can raise issues like chinese new clear proliferation/POK and Tibet/taiwan in that order as the case may be. Doing tit for tat is important at least to keep the issue alive.
India can make some poorer countries like burma/laos/Cambodia/Vietnam take some of the work of Chinese as manufacturing base. Uncle will like it as they don’t have to depend on china.
Regarding New clear issue India should stay clear of it as uncle is the 800 pound gorilla and is not a wise move for now. Leave it to the countries to fight it out with uncle. India can be on stand by mode.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 02:11 
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krisna wrote:
To beat china at its own game we have to compete economically and keep it in its own backyard- I mentioned against military posibilities because of the reasons I have mentioned in my earlier posts.
We have to encircle dragon all over. It is the country with maximum number of bordering countries (14). Some of them are relatively wealthier and powerful like Japan and South Korea. Vietnamese are sturdy folks with animosity to Chinese. We have to make friends with other nations in central asia and Mongolia also.
The key is economic and defence co operation. Richer countries like south korea and Japan will retain their independence but poorer countries like burma/laos/Cambodia/central asia and Mongolia have to be helped by us. They easily sway to china because of poorer economy.
In our own backyard, SL/BD/Burma/Nepal are also poorer economy relatively hence easy to allurement by china. We have to employ similar tactics. They have to be brought back under Indian umbrella by all means.
We have also to project image of ours vs theirs. Image is also important. Here media should be co opted to do their job. Ex- Nepal which is similar in religion and customs to us, has become anti India at times due to Chinese influence. China and Nepal have little in common except for money which can make huge difference.

Central Asia is Russian sphere, by intruding there china is skating on thin ice. Russia might make some moves if it becomes stronger economically. India can join forces with Russia and US in different regions to combat china. It is going to be a high stakes game. Will India do it?

It is a question of each country looking behind at their own backyards so that their influence is not eroded from them.

To become a superpower it must have unquestioned hegemony in its own backyard. Deny that then china is not a superpower. this is a long drawn out affair if played well. India has patience and determination but perseverance is key for long run. GOI should formulate policies looking at the geopolitical aspects for long term.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 03:17 
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@krisna^^ The IDSA COMMENT Fruits of Antony’s visit to South Korea: Defence Ties Strengthen further link does not work. I think they've moved it to:

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/Fruitso ... nda_070910

I love that it's written by one 'Rajaram Panda' who's talking about China. :)


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 03:22 
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Cosmo_R wrote:
@krisna^^ The IDSA COMMENT Fruits of Antony’s visit to South Korea: Defence Ties Strengthen further link does not work. I think they've moved it to:

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/Fruitso ... nda_070910

I love that it's written by one 'Rajaram Panda' who's talking about China. :)



Panda is a common Oriya last name. What is there to :) about?


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 03:54 
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China = Panda. No offense to Oriyas


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 04:04 
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What would India become by playing China's game?

Indian posters on BRF has always taken pride in the fact that India, unlike China, is a free democratic country with respectable international standing. The "good guys" so to speak.

I understand the urge for more assertive actions, but what would India become by following the recommendations in this thread?

India would become a offensive weapon proliferator. Just like China.
India would become a nuclear proliferator. Just like China.
India would support and sponsor Islamic terrorism. (Uighur). Just like China.
India would use other country, sometimes at their detriment, to further her own interests. Just like China.

All of these actions will be noticed by the International community. Say, all of India's strategy in this thread are successful. China is now fully checked, fighting it's own internal and external struggles. How would this new, resurgent, militarily powerful, economically spectacular India, that will use all the tricks in the book to further her own interests and ambitions, be viewed in the world? Did you not replace one tyrant in Asia with another?

So what I'm asking is this.

Is the only way for India to defend herself against China by becoming China?

“If you stare into the Abyss long enough the Abyss stares back at you.” - Friedrich Nietzsche

Don't become the very thing you're fighting against.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 04:12 
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So what do you want to do?


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 04:21 
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ramana wrote:
So what do you want to do?


I don't know. :( But, there must be a better way. This thread is about how to manage the Chinese threat. I'm just questioning whether the strategies formed and discuessed are in the right direction.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 04:33 
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TM- I don't think it would be wise or successful for India to act like China.

India is not going to be going to war or dismantling China in the near future, nor do I think it is realistic to expect India to take Ladakh/Aksai Chin. I think that is gone for good. There is no point in raising the Tibet issue either.

To improve our position vis a vis China, we have to firstly improve economic relations with them, from education to tourism, and invest in China in order to develop "leverage" over them. We can only develop that leverage when China has serious things to lose. What does China lose today when it pricks India?

I don't think instigating separatism in Sinkiang will be very useful. Pak instigating the same in Kashmir hasn't exactly brought us down, and by doing the same we will just give them an irritant with no real return. If we want to create division in their ranks, the place to target would be areas far from India in places like Mongolia, or even division in the Han majority.

Another way of division between the people and the Party would be to increase religiosity in China. Send Buddhist missionaries to the middle kingdom, and bring many Chinese students to study Buddhism in India. A spiritual awakening in China may be beneficial and a threat to the CPC.

Finally, we need to develop better relations with Iran and CA to undercut Chinese influence there and take advantage of the natural resources.


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PostPosted: 09 Sep 2010 04:52 
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Ah - Nietzsche also made statements along the lines of "what does not kill you - actually makes you stronger". So if in the process of checkmating China, India does not get killed - India will actually get strengthened!

China has been the aggressor and occupied Indian territories by war. As long as India does not occupy Chinese territory [not what has been illegaly occupied by China] India's image should not suffer. It is time India stops thinking that "goodie boy" image can only be maintained by not hitting back and crushing the bully into the ground.

This sort of peaceful acceptance of each and every abuse is a myth created by certain reinterpretations and reconstructions of Indic origin faiths in the modern period, specifically done with a political purpose. This is ideological negation and emasculation of any retribution as supposedly against "India's GGreat Value system" - a very effective war strategy of destroying the morale of India. No where in the epics or texts - we find any support of this mentality.

China has to be rolled back to its pre 1947 territories - as far as India is concerned. Moreover, from ideological and cultural considerations, India's majority has a duty to see to it that Tibet gets independence from China.

We have no quarrel with China's commons. We have every possible quarrel with the PLA and CPC. We have every reason to encourage and see to it that the dictatorship of the CPC is overthrown and a democratic electoral process takes shape in China. In fact we should offer Chinese dissidents asylum. Let them counter by hosting the Jihadis and Maoists from India - good riddance.

India does not have to feel the smallest drop of shame to retrieve what rightfully belongs to itself, and to promote proper representative democracy in its neighbourhood. ideologically, and culturally it does not have to feel the smallest drop of shame to encourage Indic origin faiths to reassert again in its neighbourhoods as they once did - over all of the subcontinent, in SE Asia and China and Central Asia.


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