Iran vs. Baluchistan Trade-Off
There is significant area of Baluchistan under Iranian occupation also. Everyday Baluch people get butchered by Iranian security forces. But since the media in Iran is so tightly controlled news seldom gets out. Just yesterday Iranian security forces murdered protesting unarmed women demanding an end to Iranian occupation of Baluchistan. If we are to support Baluchistan overtly, Iran goes for a toss. Make no mistake about that.
1) There is one axiom I'm holding on to, and that is, that Baluchi Independence (Pakistan's Baluchistan Province) and integrity can only be guaranteed by one army only and that is the Indian Army
Among all those countries, which may wish to see Baluchistan freed from Pakistan and exploitable for its connectivity to Central Asia or for its minerals or for using Baluchistan as a launching pad against Iran or for whatever purpose, they all must
be knowing that they cannot secure Baluchistan from subversion and occupation by either the Pakjabis, the Pushtun or by the Iranians, unless it is through the use of Indian jawans! Only Indian Jawans can secure Baluchistan for all the above stated purposes. Otherwise Pakistan would walk right back in!
2) Today we see Syrian regime being undermined by GCC+Turkey+USA combine. There are several reasons, one being to dislodge Iran from the region and break the Shi'a crescent, which right now extends all the way to Israel and Mediterranean. The other reason is to provide Gulf energy to Europe through Syria and Turkey, something which helps US consolidate its interests in the Gulf as well as Europe.
I think a similar dynamic can be brought to bear in Baluchistan.
3) Let's consider Saudi interests for a moment. I don't know whether they are aware of them or whether they think they can do something about it, or whether they are already doing something there.
Let's consider Saudi control over Pakistan. We see that Wahhabism has spread into Pakistani society. The Saudis have been quite successful in that endeavor. But the question is: Have they been successful in pulling Pakistan strategically into their corner.
No, they have not!
Why did Pakistan give Iran nuclear technology? It gave them the tech for two reasons:
- To coerce Saudi Arabia to look for a nuclear umbrella with Pakistan, thereby forcing Saudis to become both dependent on Pakistan for the Sunni Bomb, as well as to continue to support its nuclear program.
- To make Iran strong enough to resist any dismantlement of the state. This is important for Pakistan because Iran helps it preserve its duopoly in Central Asia! USA remains dependent on Pakistan for giving them access to Central Asia. What makes Pakistan's location of great geostrategic importance? Of course, it is 'Duopoly for Central Asian Access' and furthermore the fact that it has better relations with the West than Iran.
So even as Pakistani Establishment milks Saudi Arabia for money and for providing superficial security, Pakistan knows that it has strong convergence of strategic interests with Iran. Of course Pakistan is in competition in Iran regarding the nature of regime in Afghanistan, and Pakistan would do anything to ensure that its dog wins there. So both strategic alliance with Iran as well as competition with Iran would continue!
But at any given time, both Pakistan and Iran can come to a strategic understanding that they will close access to Central Asia under the blessings of PRC - Pakistan would not allow USA entry into Central Asia and Iran would not allow India any entry to the region.
Iran is at the moment allowing India entry into the region, simply because Iran doesn't mind India building all that infrastructure there, and as a means of persuading Pakistan to cut off US access as well. Iran is also doing its best to get Pakistan into an alliance with it. Iran is willing to provide Pakistan energy for free almost. Iran has agreed to build a gas pipeline to Pakistan and to provide Pakistan with gas. Considering that Pakistan hardly has any money to buy gas, the gas would be sold to Pakistan at extreme discounted rates.
Considering that China would want to see this Duopoly to become active, closing the Central Asia to the outside world, it is safe to presume that both USA and India would get the kick sooner or later. All three countries win! Pakistan would simply be satisfied with the assurance that India stays out and that it has its own regime in South and Southeast Afghanistan. Iran would be satisfied that USA is gone from Central Asia and that it need not fear USA on its Eastern flank, and that it can again exert its cultural influence over Western and Northern Afghanistan as well as Tajikistan. China would be happy that all of Central Asia is there only for the exploitation by it.
This is not something either India or US wants!
More interestingly it is also not something that Saudi Arabia would want! A Pakistan that has that level of strategic understanding with Iran, is of no use to Saudi Arabia.
So basically Iran is willing to dump India any time, provided Pakistan is willing to dump USA. This in fact is becoming a reality too! China is willing to grandfather such an understanding.
shiv saar has been saying repeatedly that we should incite Pakistan to kick out USA for one or the other reason, like White Christianism, etc. But the fact is, that the moment Pakistan closes itself to USA, India will lose Iran's services the very same day, and Central Asia would be slammed closed on us!
As long as Pakistan shares a border with Iran, it gives Pakistan the incentive to continue to preserve its 'Duopoly on Central Asian Access'
, and Iran gets to breast-feed Pakistan with free gas! That is definitely against Saudi interests and Saudi Arabia cannot trust Pakistan in its struggle with Shi'a Iran!
That is why India needs to build a coalition! We have to pull Saudi Arabia too into this coalition. Oman is already in. USA needs to be prodded.
3) Yes it is true that Iran would find itself threatened should (Pakistani) Baluchistan be freed (and decides to accede to India)! Its restive province of Sistan-Baluchestan too would be up in revolt. That is a given.
Would that be in the interest of any powers? That too would be in the interest of Saudi Arabia. The more Iran shrinks, the better would Saudi Arabia feel. The chances of Sistan-Baluchestan seceding from Iran are much greater once Pakistani Baluchistan manages to secede from Pakistan. Secession of Sistan-Baluchestan would mean Iran loses much of its coastline on the Indian Ocean.
It can happen then that Sistan-Baluchestan also decides to unite with Baluchistan, which already may have acceded to India, thus also acceding to India, bringing India all the way almost to the Straits of Hormuz. This has the added effect, that countries like Qatar, Oman, Emirates can now sell India gas through (almost) overland gas pipes, making all the Sheikhs even richer! Also India can better serve the security interests of the Sheikhs providing them with a second layer of protection.
With this discussion, I am trying to show that we could convince GCC that it is in their interest to see to it that Baluchistan is separated from Pakistan. It delivers to them both countries as allies - India AND Pakistan!
I don't know whether India should become an overt prominent sponsor of Baluchistani Independence, but I do know that we should influence both GCC and USA to try to separate Baluchistan from Pakistan. Also Russia needs to be brought on board.