Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

[shiv]

The question about all this is that we do game these scenarios long before they actually happen or tend to happen. However, we are not in a position to implement appropriate reactions in the bodies that need to take action.

The way I see it is that if Pakistanis "vanish" and are replaced by a sane bunch of humans by some magic, what sort of relationship would it be wise for India and China to develop?

India and China make up 25% of the humans in this world. Any Chinese attempt to "restrict India" will be met (as it is) with hostility and suspicion. Similarly any Indian moves to restrict China again would invite hostility. It would make sense in an ideal situation) for India and China to allow each other common access to the mineral wealth from the gulf and central Asia.

As stated by someone - a Chinese attempt to "hog" the KKH-Gwadar route will work only as far as China can keep Indian fears at rest. India is in a great position as a "party pooper" to cut the KKH-Gwadar link. In exactly the same manner, China could create real hell for any Indian link with Afghanistan.

The US would see a China-India entente as a huge competitor for resources. Control of Afghanistan is essential for the US - but that control must be exerted via Pakistan- so Pakistan must be controlled. "Control of Pakistan" lies in ensuring that the Pakistan army is the most powerful entity and pro-US.

So I believe we need to get into a "cooperate" mode with China as regards Af-Pak. We need to demand land access to Afghanistan in exchange for not threatening China -Gwadar links. China needs access to Gulf oil. We need access to Afghanistan.

All this does not mean we "cooperate" wrt to Arunachal Pradesh. However we need to be ready to be the biggest foil against China in Pakistan if China fails to cooperate. For this we need conditional cooperation with the US as well - so we can play off the US versus China. Ultimately the aim should be to have :
1) Sufficient military power to spoil everyone else's game in the region even if we can't win
2) Use that power to weasel ourselves into a position to split the mineral loot of Central asia between the US, China and India. Russia will have to be accommodated somewhere here.

One route towards such a goal would be overwhelming military strength in which Pakistan is almost irrelevant, and we are able to spoil everyone's game despite Pakistan. If Pakistan gets weaker as time passes so be it. If it is being made stronger (by any nation) we have to plan to spoil that nation's party in Pakistan. Being a powerful local bench-odd just like China or Pakistan is a useful capability.

In every case - any nation that actually gets involved in a war is not only a party pooper, but is also expending itself. So party pooping potential, in the absence of actual hot war is the best way to negotiate. The minute war starts between any two - all bets are off. If Pakistan is supported in its efforts to make war against India - India should be a party pooper that screws the US efforts in Afghanistan as well as the Chinese Gwadar route. Every port, road and bridge and pass that may be used by these countries needs to be pulverised. Russia may be a useful ally here if we play the balancing game right.

The overall aim should be "We want a piece of cake too or we spoil your party". Since the "party" is being held in Pakistan an ability to damage Pakistan seriously is essential. Ultimately Pakistan will have to see that the route to survival and prosperity will have to be via a detente with India.

Just some random thoughts on the issue.

[RajeshA]

As stated by someone - a Chinese attempt to "hog" the KKH-Gwadar route will work only as far as China can keep Indian fears at rest. India is in a great position as a "party pooper" to cut the KKH-Gwadar link. In exactly the same manner, China could create real hell for any Indian link with Afghanistan.

Not if the Indo-Afghan corridor widens up, which will be the case once Pushtunistan becomes reality, and India sits in PoK.

[Manishw]

In the previous version of the "strategic scenarios" thread, I think we had discussed elaborately about the need to re-occupy POK and cease control of KKH.This was explicitly discussed both as a standalone as well as part of comprehensive reoccupation of the entire region currently under formal Paki government control. It was specifically discussed to block PRC access to Arabian Sea and India to link up with Afghan territory on borders.

Recently we have also discussed the possibility that the rump state of Islamabad finds expansion into "Kashmir" more a necessity to preserve its power in at least a consolidated "northern area" with the backup of the PLA through the KKH.

The question about all this is that we do game these scenarios long before they actually happen or tend to happen. However, we are not in a position to implement appropriate reactions in the bodies that need to take action.

Brihaspati Ji, Thank's and apologies. Nowadays shishya's want instant gratification wrt knowledge from Gurus which is wrong.Good news is this shishya of your's is working hard and IMHO learning fast too.

[abhik]

For the benefit of the less informed amongst us I ask again what is the paki orbat in this region?
Thanks in advance.

[brihaspati]

Shiv wrote
One route towards such a goal would be overwhelming military strength in which Pakistan is almost irrelevant, and we are able to spoil everyone's game despite Pakistan. If Pakistan gets weaker as time passes so be it. If it is being made stronger (by any nation) we have to plan to spoil that nation's party in Pakistan. Being a powerful local bench-odd just like China or Pakistan is a useful capability.

In every case - any nation that actually gets involved in a war is not only a party pooper, but is also expending itself. So party pooping potential, in the absence of actual hot war is the best way to negotiate. The minute war starts between any two - all bets are off. If Pakistan is supported in its efforts to make war against India - India should be a party pooper that screws the US efforts in Afghanistan as well as the Chinese Gwadar route. Every port, road and bridge and pass that may be used by these countries needs to be pulverised. Russia may be a useful ally here if we play the balancing game right.

The overall aim should be "We want a piece of cake too or we spoil your party". Since the "party" is being held in Pakistan an ability to damage Pakistan seriously is essential. Ultimately Pakistan will have to see that the route to survival and prosperity will have to be via a detente with India.

To prove oneself capable of being the party-spoiler, I think, the ambitious side must actually show once or more than once, in a consistent manner - that it not only has the capacity but also the willingness to actually carry out the spoiling in "test-cases".

India has so far done this partially only in '71. But even there India has not followed up the spoiling by consolidating its hold on the defeated or parts thereof.

So, what has turned up for "others", is that India either does not have the consistency to project power to be the party-spoiler, or even if it has that capability - it is hesitant and indecisive in using that power. Moreover, that India does not know or is unwilling to consolidate the gains from such projections if successful.

Without consistently and repeatedly making the threat "good", unfortunately - which as you state is an expensive actual war option - this reputation of being a party-spoiler cannot be established.

This is by no means any indictment of Indian capabilities on the field. But a clear political will to use actual show of force for concrete gains in territory, extent, penetration, and dominance is not apparent. Again this is not being attributed to any inherent character flaw in anyone or any supposed character of the nation, etc. Just because it has not been shown so far does not mean it will not be shown in the future. There has been at least one example of a "peaceful" union - without actual war - Sikkim. What led up to it and why it differs from future cases or not is an interesting discussion but OT here.

[brihaspati]

Manishw ji,
please! I am not a guru here. If I felt I really professionally was virtually a guru in any of the topics posted here - I would not have posted. In fact I avoid some of the relevant areas within other subforums here for this very reason. I am also in the same league as you or most of us here - exploring and sounding out ideas and learning more than I perhaps contribute.

I would be keen to read your responses to some of the ambitious ideas we expressed in the two versions of the "strategic scenarios thread".

[TonyMontana]

It would make sense in an ideal situation) for India and China to allow each other common access to the mineral wealth from the gulf and central Asia.

Agreed.

The US would see a China-India entente as a huge competitor for resources. Control of Afghanistan is essential for the US - but that control must be exerted via Pakistan- so Pakistan must be controlled. "Control of Pakistan" lies in ensuring that the Pakistan army is the most powerful entity and pro-US.

China might have supplied Pakistan with weapons, but it is the US that is sustaining them.

So I believe we need to get into a "cooperate" mode with China as regards Af-Pak. We need to demand land access to Afghanistan in exchange for not threatening China -Gwadar links. China needs access to Gulf oil. We need access to Afghanistan.

Most beneficial to all concerned.

[shiv]

China might have supplied Pakistan with weapons, but it is the US that is sustaining them.

Nitpick. The whore has two customers. One customer, the US, throws his entire wallet at her for a mere kiss and show of what's inside the blouse. The other customer, China, services her more that she services him.

Both China and the US find the Pakistanis very useful. Exactly what China has gained from Pakistan is moot. Maybe China lies to say "I have a girlfriend too". It is not clear to if the Chinese seriously think that they are going to keep India busy forever with Pakistan. It is China that need to have a long hard look at its own policies of spreading nuclear weapons and missiles and selling C-grade arms at cut-rate prices for dubious gains to itself.

[TonyMontana]

It is not clear to if the Chinese seriously think that they are going to keep India busy forever with Pakistan. It is China that need to have a long hard look at its own policies of spreading nuclear weapons and missiles and selling C-grade arms at cut-rate prices for dubious gains to itself.

Maybe the goal is to keep India busy as long as China can?

x post

1) To bypass Indian control of IOR it wants access to gwadar. this is the most important consideration of china wrt India. pakistan is sworn enemy of India by virtue of its genes(is). So chinese best bet (also cheapest) is pakistan (helped by fortuitous circumstances of J&K issue in 1947 with POK under pakistan control).--Enemy's enemy is my best friend policy.
2) By developing gwadar ,investing in economy, roads in KKH and elsewhere and railways, weapons etc. Honestly it is easy to keep pakistan happy-- anything to keep India under check- China gives weapons including new clear proliferation, J&K issue noises and visas issues etc to boost their standing among pakis. it also gives a handle to bakis to cock a snook at India. Oil will eventually pass thru pure land to china via POK. It in a way legitimises POK in baki eyes and responsibility to protect it as a jewel in the hope that china will go to war if anything happens to POK as it is their jugular with time to come in future. In return china will give J&K to bakis in case India suffers.
In the outbreak of hostilities between India & china, pakistan will have to be involved as goods are transported transported to china. Hence the need for two front war for India. if it was IOR alone only India china is involved without pakistan.(anyway pakistan involving itself in this war is always there)
the Chinese-Pakistani challenge.[/b]

[shiv]

It is not clear to if the Chinese seriously think that they are going to keep India busy forever with Pakistan. It is China that need to have a long hard look at its own policies of spreading nuclear weapons and missiles and selling C-grade arms at cut-rate prices for dubious gains to itself.

Maybe the goal is to keep India busy as long as China can?

If fact that is the policy that I personally have mixed feelings about (as an Indian).

One half of me is irritated with China for this mindless game.

But there is another half of me that scents blood. India has continuously armed itself to fight with Pakistan while holding China, along with some extras for internal security. Seen over a period of about 40 years - Pakistan's armed strength vis a vis India is going down gradually as its economy crumbles. What that means is that India armed strength vis a vis China is set to increase. This is already happening. This makes me happy. As long as China appears to be a threat to India as India develops economically, Indians will always demand that a lot is spent on opposing China. Even innocent and justifiable moves by China will be seen with suspicion leave alone the sort of gaand-masti (being an international ass-hole) that the Chinese have typically indulged in. Chinese routes will never be allowed to be as secure as they would be if China chooses a non confrontational route.

The ability to be non confrontational is something that I have not yet seen from, China. I am sure the Chinese have internal political and/or cultural reasons for being international boors. I am not at all sure if China really seeks "world domination" any more that India is "aspiring to be a superpower". But the more China needles India, the more India is going to be a pain in China's butt. To that extent I am grateful to China for behaving like such a brainless boorish nation. Fortunately enough Indians fear China so that India will set aside great resources just to spoil the Chinese party. China will need a total overhaul of its foreign policy to escape the consequences of that.

[Prem]

China just killed the stillborn Asian century with short sighted moves. POK under China give new importance to Baluch freedom and Pushtoon nationalistic aspirations . O and G must flow through either A route or B route and both being unstabale will ruin any chance of Poakchin dream getting realized . Dragon has flashed its cards and no one from Japan to Jakarta toBharta like dragon's game.

[Manishw]

Xposting from "US,PRC,India... thread"
Manishw wrote
Quote
India, even if it would successfully manage to fend off PRC from it's own border's has to insure that not only it becomes powerful enough to take the fight to the heartland of P.R.C but also to insure that Japan, Soko, Afg., Taiwan, Vietnam, SL and BD, Nepal etc do not fall into the Chinese orbit which IMHO is a process which has started.All countries require a different approach but thinking of what's in it for us is taking a very narrow view.Hence the present status quo is not sustainable.Two big power's like India and china in Asia cannot coexist and to the best of my knowledge has never happened in history?One of us has to downsize sooner or later.

Last night Shiv Ji was talking of India blowing a hole through Pakistan to Afghanistan in the POK thread.I would just offer a half baked Idea that the best way to do that is through P.O.K(two of many reason's are that it is sparsely populated and less legal problems).We have to keep that hole open also, blasting is not enough.Now the problem is that PRC is already there.Fine get ready to take them on.Unkil if he is ready to help , by all mean's take his help but if not get ready to do it on our own.These thing's are now vital to India's Natinal security.No dilly dallying should take place, otherwise the price would be too heavy for us to pay.India can't afford to play a 'frog in the well' role anymore.
Unquote

[shiv]

I would just offer a half baked Idea that the best way to do that is through P.O.K(two of many reason's are that it is sparsely populated and less legal problems).We have to keep that hole open also, blasting is not enough.Now the problem is that PRC is already there.Fine get ready to take them on.Unkil if he is ready to help , by all mean's take his help but if not get ready to do it on our own.

If you look at maps of the region - you find that 4 countries - in fact 5 countries meet in that area. P0rnistan, India, China, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Ultimately any one of these countries can spoil things for all the others. The only long term solution will be cooperation to keep routes open for all to use.

If you look at the gulf near Somalia - you find that Somalians make it tough for all - but international cooperation to keep lanes open to all benefits all. Similarly - we really have to look at a way of keeping all lanes open, or else spoil the party of anyone who tries to keep access to some people open and others closed.

[Pratyush]

SNIP...
The ability to be non confrontational is something that I have not yet seen from, China. I am sure the Chinese have internal political and/or cultural reasons for being international boors. I am not at all sure if China really seeks "world domination" any more that India is "aspiring to be a superpower". But the more China needles India, the more India is going to be a pain in China's butt. To that extent I am grateful to China for behaving like such a brainless boorish nation. Fortunately enough Indians fear China so that India will set aside great resources just to spoil the Chinese party. China will need a total overhaul of its foreign policy to escape the consequences of that.

Shiv,

This is precisly why I consider the PRC to be not very smart. They have created a conflict and weakness for themselves where none existed. If they were not as agressive as they have been. India may not have developed the kind of military muscle that it has developed over the past 50 years.

So Instead of improving its security, it has reduced it by trying to encircle and isolate India. Just so it can show itself to be a macho power.

[TonyMontana]

This is precisly why I consider the PRC to be not very smart. They have created a conflict and weakness for themselves where none existed. If they were not as agressive as they have been. India may not have developed the kind of military muscle that it has developed over the past 50 years.
So Instead of improving its security, it has reduced it by trying to encircle and isolate India. Just so it can show itself to be a macho power.

That's one way to look at it. The other way from PRC's point of view is that you can't depend on other's goodwill for your own security. China did what she can with what she had. Might not be smart, but she's trying. As for the second bolded part, I think it's a misread on your behalf.

[rohitvats]

<SNIP>

To that extent I am grateful to China for behaving like such a brainless boorish nation. Fortunately enough Indians fear China so that India will set aside great resources just to spoil the Chinese party. China will need a total overhaul of its foreign policy to escape the consequences of that.

This needling from China means that threat from China has made its way into daily conversation of our DDM. That GOI has sanctioned increasing the strength of IA after more that 20 years and has sanctioned 6 new Mountain Divisions and a Strike Corps HQ - a concept first formulated in the mid-80s by the IA. Not to talk about the induction of M777 - which will only go up in number. And btw, the number of planned new Mountain Divisions are in 10-11 range (as per internet chatter).

So, I'm not sure what the Chinese were thinking when trying to needle India. It does take something exceptional to get the GOI elephant going on security issues. And Chinese have actually managed GOI to move on Defense issues here. If the Chinese were so much into Sun-Tzu, they could have carried on expanding and modernizing their army and infra in Tibet without raising hackles in India. As it is, there are enough apologists for China in Indian MEA to thwart any defense capability increment for fear of angering the Dragon. And when the time was ripe for them, they could have engineered a showdown. 5-6years from now the Defence Services and IA in particular, will be ready and waiting for the Chinese. There is enough movement on the Ground already.

[Pratyush]

Tony,

You need to understand that not taking time to negotiate and create incentives for the other guy to make consessions at the table will only make the other guy more rigid not less.

It is some thing the PRC has not understood. You can say that I have mis read the situation but what could be the alternative to the chinies actions. Which may have increased its security instead of reducing it. You say that you cannot depend upon the goodwill of others for your security. So you just go on then to antagonise them and reduce your security even more.

You are welcome to elaborate. How has cource of action enhanced its security. Also how this is not being macho AFA the PRC is concerned.

Will appreciate some education on this subject.

[AdityaM]

All the nice people of this thread are in an extended reverie.
For all the talk of india waking up to the threat and cutting a path to Afghanistan, we are still the country whose PM gives 25 million aid to TSP and then promptly appears next day in newspaper adverts asking people to donate to his PM relief fund for Leh.

All this chinese needling only works as acupuncture on indian nerves.
(yes i am ranting. ignore it. But i am not misplaced in doing so)

[Manishw]

Xposting here again from the same thread since it seems to be going OT there and my post was wrt POK .Shiv Ji your thought's (or criticism's also)are much appreciated.

Quote
Sanjay M wrote:
It's an absolute fantasy to think that Indian Army could take the fight into the Chinese heartland when that heartland is located on the eastern side of China's landmass.
You're saying that Indian Army should be able to fight its way across Tibet and into Central China. We would be slaughtered long before we get there.

Manishw wrote
maybe, maybe not perhaps you are jumping the gun.I never said that this is the route that we must take.Though our air assets make take it as one of them.

Sanjay M wrote:
The best we can do is mount a holding operation against China on our side of the Himalayas, assuming that our nukes can't deter them. We'd have to use the terrain in our favour - ie. bomb Chinese supply routes to the border, since the terrain on their side makes it difficult for them to get there. We, on the other hand, have a large population near our side of the border.

Manishw wrote:
Then we must prepare further and find allies near the Chinese heartland.

Sanjay M wrote:
I'm imagining that a sizeable section of the population of Uttar Pradesh would end up in refugee camps, if a border war were to spread.

Manishw wrote:
Not talking about this scenario only but our whole nation will take a huge hit in one form or the other.
Unquote.

[rohitvats]

For the benefit of the less informed amongst us I ask again what is the paki orbat in this region?
Thanks in advance.

Northern Areas are under the command of FCNA - Force Command Northern Areas (HQ - Gilgit). Prior to Kargil, this was equivalent to a Division and held most of the NLI Battalions. Post Kargil, a seperate Division was required opposite Indian 8th Mountain Division. Coupled with earlier brigades, this made the FCNA equivalent to Corps.

The Orbat is as under:

62 Brigade - Skardu
80 Brigade - Astor
150 Brigade - Gilgit
323 Brigade - Dansam - responsible for Pakistan troops opposite Siachen. Base camp at Khappalu.
61st Brigade - U/I Location
7th Infantry Division

There are three narratives about the extra division. One, that 7th ID moved from XI Corps (Peshawar) and a new Division was raised in lieu of the same. Second, that a completely new Division was raised for the Kargil Sector. Third, that FCNA consists of only 5 Independent Brigades. I'll go with either of first two. For a simple reason, if FCNA consists of only 5 Independent Brigades, 3 of them will be absorbed across our Kargil sector (323 is committed to Siachen) and Northern areas will be left with only 1 reserve Infantry Brigade. Accepted wisdom is that 7th moved from XI Corps to FCNA.

Hope this helps.

[Manishw]

That's one way to look at it. The other way from PRC's point of view is that you can't depend on other's goodwill for your own security. China did what she can with what she had. Might not be smart, but she's trying. As for the second bolded part, I think it's a misread on your behalf.

Tony What about the concern's of India.PRC alone doesn't have concern's or should we roll over and die as the good guys are supposed to do.

[Chinmayanand]

India's pressure works; China says PoK not in Pak

[Pratyush]

Very interesting from PRC. First create a dispute and when faced with pressure withdraw and claim to have solved the dispute. Showing to the world and gulible media just how reasonable they have been.

[amit]

Very interesting from PRC. First create a dispute and when faced with pressure withdraw and claim to have solved the dispute. Showing to the world and gulible media just how reasonable they have been.

Boss,

If you look at it from another angle, it can also be construed as a case of down-hill skiing.

Look at it from this perspective: China makes an outrageous claim. India gets angry and makes the anger known. China quickly backtracks and withdraws the claim.

Does this look the work of a supremely confident nation who doesn't care what it's neighbor thinks? Let's not put China on a pedestal here. They may show bluster but they know that India can hit back at their soft underbelly in Tibet.

I would certainly like to know how the taller than mountains, deeper than the oceans friend feels about this? But then, condoms don't have feelings do they?

[Pratyush]

Amit,

This is exactly how, I, have construed this move from the PRC. Wrt the feelings of the depel then mountains and tarrel then mountain fliends are concerned.

Who cares?? They were whores then they are whores now.

[amit]

Amit,

This is exactly how, I, have construed this move from the PRC. Wrt the feelings of the depel then mountains and tarrel then mountain fliends are concerned.

Who cares?? They were whores then they are whores now.

I sometimes think we tend to overestimate the Chinis. Like the goras we get overwhelmed by their gleaming buildings, airports, Maglevs and what have you and think, "wah, these guys would eat us for breakfast".

We should keep in mind that appearances are not everything. Sure they are ahead of us in almost every department, but not so much ahead that they can trample us without getting hurt themselves.

[shiv]

That's one way to look at it. The other way from PRC's point of view is that you can't depend on other's goodwill for your own security. China did what she can with what she had. Might not be smart, but she's trying. As for the second bolded part, I think it's a misread on your behalf.

China has depended on Pakistani goodwill to counterbalance/topple India. The writing on the wall should have been obvious to China - but I think the Chinese were hoodwinked by Pakistani asslicking. Goes to show that for all the protestations about "not depending on goodwill" a little grovelling and praise of China by Pakistanis went a long way in helping China commit idiotic geopolitical errors.

China comes across as a paranoid untrustworthy nation - a nation that is both untrustworthy and believes that every one else is as untrustworthy as the Chinese government itself is. A village bumpkin with little education who has come into sudden wealth and power and does not really know how to behave and needs to be shown how to behave at the point of a nuclear tipped gun - in a language that he understands. Just like Chairman Mao said. Indians of course will say "Sun Tzu" even when China farts - but that is the weakness and insecurity displayed by Indians who have weight of history and culture and a very very poor and negative self image.

[sum]

^^ The very fact that the Panda got the elephant to suddenly wake up and start rearming itself to the teeth in the border areas means that they have messed up in their India strategy!!!

[Altair]

^^
panda realized it f*ckd up wrt India policy. Panda can be amenable wrt Pakistan if we make a right approach to them. Offer a deal.There is a great opportunity that India can try to tighten some nails on the Pakistani coffin.

[praksam]

Baasi kadi mein ubaal

BJP Yuva Morcha wants Pakistan-occupied Kashmir returned to India

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_b ... ia_1435036

The Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BYJM) is demanding that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir be returned to India.

The BJP, which has always opposed the autonomous status given to Kashmir, has now decided to take the mission forward through its youth brigade under the leadership of BJYM president Anurag Thakur and general secretary Poonam Mahajan.

A large-scale campaign titled India First will be launched across the country from September 17 to push for this mission and to generate awareness on complex issues like militancy in the valley.

Before the launch, a two-day training programme and a national executive meeting will be held at Rambhau Mhalgi Prabodhini, a convention centre in Bhayander (West), from September 12 to 14. The top leadership of the BJP will guide and outline the plans for the youth wing.

Thakur said, “We are demanding that PoK and the northern territory should remain a part of India. We will mobilise public support to take the matter to its logical end. If required, we will take lakhs of people to Kashmir to echo our demand.”

The programme will be inaugurated by former human resources development minister Murli Manohar Joshi along with journalist P Sainath and writer Chetan Bhagat. BJP president Nitin Gadkari will address the conclave on September 14.

[svinayak]

^^ The very fact that the Panda got the elephant to suddenly wake up and start rearming itself to the teeth in the border areas means that they have messed up in their India strategy!!!

^^
panda realized it f*ckd up wrt India policy. Panda can be amenable wrt Pakistan if we make a right approach to them. Offer a deal.There is a great opportunity that India can try to tighten some nails on the Pakistani coffin.

They realized that they made an eternal enemy in 1962. That is 50 years ago. They could pretend that they are global masters and can control their sphere of region but nothing more.

They hope to pretend that they can continue the same policy in Tibet and region without any price. The price will be shocking to China in the long run.

[svinayak]

Amit,

This is exactly how, I, have construed this move from the PRC. Wrt the feelings of the depel then mountains and tarrel then mountain fliends are concerned.

Who cares?? They were whores then they are whores now.

This is all talk and press statements. But the real action will be for India to spend on Mil and also defend physically the border and region. India needs a strategy to take care of PRC. Does Indian leadership have it.

[krisna]

China's power play

We must understand the implications of China's denial of visa to General Jaswal, heading India's Northern Command, for defence talks in Beijing on the ground that he came from the "sensitive location of Jammu and Kashmir" and " people from this part of the world come with a different kind of visa".

The implication here is that those associated directly with Indian rule in J&K are not politically acceptable to China for visits even if they are travelling for purposes agreed to at the governmental level. This would suggest that the Chinese now consider India's presence in J&K as lacking in legitimacy. Even the legality of India's 'control' over J&K is being questioned.

Its recent steps to question India's legal status in J&K referred to tellingly as ''this part of the world" in bilateral dealings constitute a new and grave provocation.

With energy security and the unrest in Xinjiang in view, China has begun to look at this territory illegally occupied by Pakistan with even greater strategic interest than before. Uighur separatists can be kept under a watchful eye from there, while through Gwadar, oil and gas from the Gulf can be transported to Xinjiang. China can link up its interests in Afghanistan too through this contiguous area. China would therefore want Pakistan's hold over this region consolidated economically and legally.

Moreover, by entrenching itself in this region firmly, China would want to be able to protect its strategic investment in it, should the Pakistani state slide increasingly towards failure.

Our response to Chinese attacks on our sovereignty must not be confined to temporary suspension of defence visits, as China will gladly pay that price for the space it is creating for itself to pursue its strategic interests in the original J&K state at India's cost.

We should consider issuing stapled visas to Tibetans travelling on Chinese passports to underline that we had recognised a genuinely autonomous Tibet as part of China, not a militarised Tibet threatening our security and serving to make additional territorial demands on us. The prime minister's remark about Beijing exploiting India's "soft underbelly" in Kashmir and Pakistan to keep India in "low level equilibrium" indicates a new, refreshing realism about China, but a tangible response is needed.

While we engage China, we too should create space for ourselves to impose costs on it for its hostile policies against us.

Good article with some solutions to start with.

[krisna]

China's Presence in Pakistan- reply of Selig Harrison to Mian jahangir Iqbal, New York Press Counselor Permanent mission of Pakistan to the United Nations

True, the Chinese in Gilgit-Baltistan are not combat soldiers, and their work on flood relief and economic development has positive benefits. But the impact of such a large foreign presence in a thinly populated, undeveloped region has been profound. With large amounts of money to dispense for subcontracts and support services, P.L.A. officers have become powerful, striking alliances with Pakistan-sponsored local functionaries, Pakistani bureaucrats and Pakistani businessmen who are profiting from more than 200 mining and other Chinese-run projects.

[Altair]

But the real action will be for India to spend on Mil and also defend physically the border and region. India needs a strategy to take care of PRC. Does Indian leadership have it.

OT
I sometimes compare China to a "fake baba". Everyone is so enchanted by their mysticism. I heard lot of people say. China is such a huge economy...their shanghai towers are so tall..their military budget is zillion dollars....blah blah.......... Again its just like indian "baba". baba's tend to create such image which instills a sense of fear in the general populace.I agree they have better planning and are well organised and a system which can deliver.

Indians having tasted defeat at their hands still have that fear of defeat. Its nothing strange and nothing to be ashamed off.
There is nothing scary in China. Its all a big show. Any economists here in BRF can comment on the well being of China if the current world economic situation prevails till 2020.Trust me China will do a USSR, if India trusts its ability. Its exactly what Chinese are afraid off.Chinese are afraid of Indian ability and confidence. They are just trying to scare us and poke us.
They ate their own foot trying to scare India. I say... Arey "baba"!! thoda sambhal ke!!!
India needs to trust itself and march ahead confidently. Just expose chinese baba like Nityananda and India will be hypersonic.
Vande Mataram.

[RamaY]

Was discussing the POK situation with one of the forum Gurus...

The current global realignment is similar to what happened after WWII. At that time UKstan passed the reigns to the new power USA while remaining behind the scenes as the ideological mentor.

The same thing is happening now. This time USA took UKstan's place and PRC took USA's.

USA is passing the twice used condom (TSP) to PRC. That could be the reason behind PRC's troop movements into POK.

In a hypothetical scenario of Pakistan's failure and disintegration, where would POK go? Would the 3.5 friends allow it to return to India? How about putting it in PRC's hands?

POK is India's gateway to CAR. When that happens India will become the unsinkable ACC in Indian ocean and decide EUs fortunes. That is the Great Chess Game. Can a lone India counter the combined influence of 3.5 friends? Only if it can push the right pressure points in the surrounding areas.

POK is a key part in this whole game. And no one can deny India's legitimate ownership on this piece. So India must plan for its acquisition in immediate future.

[ramana]

Brad Goodman posted this in TSP thread...
Interesting article on Gilgit Baltistan
PART 1

'Pakistan, China must leave Gilgit-Baltistan'

Gilgit Baltistan, high in the northern ranges of Kashmir, has been in the news of late due to the reported presence of a large number of Chinese troops there. Senge Hasan Sering, the director of the Gilgit Baltistan National Congress, believes the number of Chinese troops in the region could be lot more than 11,000.

Tell us about Gilgit Baltistan, and your interest in Kashmir.

Gilgit-Baltistan is part of the former Princely State of Jammu & Kashmir, and we have been affected deeply by the unresolved issue. As a cultural and human rights defender, I have great interest in the Kashmir issue. The interest also stems from the fact that the Sufis and Shias of Gilgit-Baltistan share religious ties with Kashmiris and Ladakhis. Ethnically and linguistically, the people of Baltistan are related to the Ladakhis while the people of Gilgit, Chitral and Kashmir are Dardic, who speak related languages. All our historical trade routes open towards Ladakh, Kashmir and Tibet. Kashmir and Tibet gave us civilization, which is now plagued by violence, extremism and drug culture introduced by Pakistanis.

We want to re-establish relations with other parts of Jammu & Kashmir to revive our social values and traditions. The socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan is something that every citizen of the region, including myself, aspires for. We believe that opening of the Line of Control and resumption of trade over the historical trade routes between Gilgit-Baltistan and Ladakh are critical for alleviating economic hardships, especially in the districts of Astore, Skardo, Kharmang, Gangche and Shingo-Shigar.

Hence, resuming links with Kashmir will help solve both socio-political as well as economic problems of Gilgit-Baltistan.

PART 2

'Pakistan's foundations are flawed'

I would recommend these articles as they do offer an insiders perspective of the lost region we know little about

[krisna]

IDSA COMMENT-Chinese Activities in PoK: High Time for India to Put its Act Together

It is seldom that the part of Kashmir under Pakistan’s control comes under western media scrutiny.

The uproar in the aftermath of the report( regarding chinese troops in POK) resulted in Chinese and Pakistanis denials of the disclosures.

Notably, the Chinese presence in PoK has been known to the Indian side. Statements from the Government on India from time to time reflect India’s sensitivities on the developments in PoK which is as an integral part of Indian territory. India’s opposition to the construction of the Bunji Dam with Chinese assistance in the Astore District is a recent example in this regard.

It is not known to the world and to Indians themselves- should have be loud and clear with countermeasures which is lacking!

The Chinese are thus using the flood situation as a cover to justify troop movements in a territory which legally belongs to India. China had always attempted to highlight that Kashmir is a contested territory by issuing stapled visas to Kashmiris and denying a visa to a military general who was serving in Jammu & Kashmir. So it was fully aware of the significance and implications of moving an entire unit of the PLA into PoK .

There is no doubt that the New York Times report has elicited wider attention mainly because it is of western origin. In the past, independent international reports have pointed out gross human rights violations taking place in PoK but without creating much impact. This report is important because it is non-partisan and is published in the United States which itself is in a dilemma regarding its strategic objectives in Pakistan .

The author is seeing thru' western prism.

The New York Times report has important lessons for India, which has been less than assertive on the issue of PoK. The report has stirred up the debate on Kashmir, thereby providing a ripe opportunity for India to reemphasize its legal right over PoK. After making an objective assessment, India needs to use such reports as effective tools to educate the international community that all is not well in that part of Kashmir (read PoK).

Not dossiers, talks and documents plez, enuf of it. pragmatic geopolitical response is reqd

There is simmering unrest against Pakistan in PoK which needs to be highlighted across the globe, especially amongst countries who are strong advocates of human rights and freedom. There are pertinent questions relating to the status of PoK which need an answer: why is that the sufferings of the local population in PoK go largely unnoticed by the world community? Why has Pakistan deliberately kept the so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan away from media attention?

Selig Harrison’s comments are of some consequence to the United States also as PoK is currently under Pakistan’s control. Any development taking place within territory under Pakistan’s control, that too with a Chinese dimension to it, needs urgent attention from the United States.

it is all in great game. Because china is encroaching on traditional US ally, US playing this to catch up with it, awakening the sleeping elephant in the process to cut down the dlagon.

India could also advertise the situation in PoK to refute the separatist argument that militarization of J&K is adversely affecting the normalization and peace process in the valley. Pakistan on its part has allowed a foreign force in PoK, a territory which does not even belong to it, to suppress a popular uprising. Hence, Pakistan has further imperiled the security of the people of PoK.

[rohitvats]

Round and round the ^^^ article goes..without so much as giving examples of options which India can deploy. Nor is there any deep assessment of how it complicates the options for India with respect to the POK and expecially, the Northern Areas. BRF did much better...we need more in-depth analysis from people/researchers in these fields.

[negi]

POK is a key part in this whole game. And no one can deny India's legitimate ownership on this piece. So India must plan for its acquisition in immediate future.

Indian troops will never enter PoK not until someone from the other side infiltrates across the LoC/LaC, our position has been very clear on this issue. To put it across bluntly we have no desire to recapture the PoK there is nothing in open literature which indicates any such desire as far as GoI is concerned.

Btw this is what General VK Singh has to say on 'Cold Start' but imho it holds true for PoK/Tibet or any other territory which requires IA deployment (unless TSP/PRC do something to alter the international boundary we will not intervene). IA will always tow the GoI's line for that is what an Army in a democracy is supposed to do so basically General Singh is just re-iterating GoI's stand on this issue.

“We are not aggressors; however active defence is part of our defensive strategy. India is a peace loving nation and does not covet any territory,”