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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:02
by shiv

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:09
by Bade
:-) Now you need to confess to the veracity of the location too, else IA would look like sissies complaining about lack of resources to take over this beautiful flat countryside.

Google chacha gave a better results. Gilgit does not look as bad at all to live in peace and harmony.
http://www.views.pk/gilgit-hunza
http://www.concordiaexpeditions.com/pak ... ilgit.html
http://www.itspakistan.net/pakistan/gal ... er_jpg.htm

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:20
by rohitvats
Bade wrote:That terrain does not look so formidable at all to conquer and lay siege to, if it indeed is Gilgit-Baltistan.
That terrain is most probably part of the valley system and the only flat and low lying area (relatively)- the pic has a water body. I'm guessing it is a river.

All the major towns in these areas - starting from Leh to Shyok to Skardu to Gilgit are located in these valleys.The problem is reaching these valley floors. They are surrounded by steep mountains along all side. Any conflict in these high areas is basically jumping from one town/valley to another and along the course of the rivers and certain mountain passes. It makes the approaches predictable as well as restricts the concentration of troops and material which can be moved.

Please see the location of Skardu here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lat=35.3117634&lo ... rch=skardu

Follow the Skyok river from Skardu eastwards and you'll see that one enters Indian Turtok Sector and thence, Nubra Valley and Thoise. Similarly, if you follow Indus River in South-East direction (which meets Shyok river short of Skardu), you'll make your way to Leh along the Indus River Valley. Troops in Batalik Sector ( on this route) guards this entry into Leh. As you follow the Indus, another route branches off to Kargil via Shingo River, which is tributary of Indus and flows along the Kargil Town. All these routes were taken by PA in 1947-48 to attack the Kargil, Nubra Valley and Leh garrisons.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:25
by ramana
So folks are posting psy-ops pix to score points?

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:42
by shiv
ramana wrote:So folks are posting psy-ops pix to score points?
Posting psy ops to make a point, not score a point. That is a pretty good photoshop job. Nobody would have known if I had said nothing and this point scoring comment would not have appeared.

Selig Harrison's writing is denied by Pakistan and is believed by others. One photograph of Chinese soldiers in the area would be a psy ops victory.

India has humint in the area and I believe that if Chinese soldiers started making inroads we would certainly have more info - so I personally don't know what to make of what Harrison says.

However - photographs and psy ops could cause anger in Pakistan/POK and that is what I would like to see. In fact I believe that it is essential for members of the Google earth community to post family photographs of Mount Golapankutty in North Arunachal Pradesh/ Han Occupied Tibet- but that is OT here.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 09:51
by shiv
Bade wrote::-) Now you need to confess to the veracity of the location too, else IA would look like sissies complaining about lack of resources to take over this beautiful flat countryside.

Google chacha gave a better results. Gilgit does not look as bad at all to live in peace and harmony.
http://www.views.pk/gilgit-hunza
http://www.concordiaexpeditions.com/pak ... ilgit.html
http://www.itspakistan.net/pakistan/gal ... er_jpg.htm
Bade once you get to 5000 meters all looks nice. It's getting there that is the issue. The location of the mountains is Google - Khunjerab.
Karakoram highway
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq8_txPcZR4

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 10:00
by Bade
Shiv, for sure one look at wikimaps or google earth shows the relative gradients like mandlebrot's fractals. So yes there are steep inclines in places, but large flat valleys even if at 5000+m above msl with human settlements to be viable. So it cannot be as bad as even Siachen or any glacier points.

RohitVats says the valleys were used by Pakistan to reach close to Kargil/Leh with even less sophisticated equipment 60 years ago, so the reverse can also be done albeit with lack of element of surprise needed, but hopefully supported by overwhelming air power.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 10:08
by shiv
Bade wrote:Shiv, for sure one look at wikimaps or google earth shows the relative gradients like mandlebrot's fractals. So yes there are steep inclines in places, but large flat valleys even if at 5000+m above msl with human settlements to be viable. So it cannot be as bad as even Siachen or any glacier points.

RohitVats says the valleys were used by Pakistan to reach close to Kargil/Leh with even less sophisticated equipment 60 years ago, so the reverse can also be done albeit with lack of element of surprise needed, but hopefully supported by overwhelming air power.
One of the things I was told (during and after the Kargil war) by my late cousin Wingco Suresh is that the "heights" between India and Pakistan can be reached from the Pakistan side by relatively gentler slopes that allow yaks/pack animals higher. On the Indian side the fall is steep - and so the climb too is steep - and hence the difficulty faced by the Indian army in Kargil. It is just a geographical quirk that both sides are not symmetrically steep/sloping. Will try and find online links for this info..

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 10:26
by Bade
Something that bothers me about this relative incline being asymmetric, is that the direction seem to be all wrong. We learn from school days that most rivers originate in the mountains and flow to the plains.

In the case of rivers that originate in the PoK areas, it flows westwards to drain into the Arabian sea, unlike the major rivers that run through the Indian plains which originate in the eastern part of J&K. Hence, the local incline as we move west along the valleys at least must be favorable to us. For the Pakis to get to Kargil/Leh in '48 must have been an uphill walk against the gradient, no ?

Kargil war of recent times was different as the fights were to capture the peaks. Maybe, the strategy to retake PoK should to be avoid the peaks and go the valley way. The peaks are to be pulverized using air-power.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 12:47
by Lalmohan
peaks are only held for observation purposes, so that artillery and air power can be directed onto troops on the low lying areas. highly effective as we have seen in the kargil case

the valleys almost always will have a choke point, perhaps a narrowing of the mountains, perhaps a river crossing. any penetration in strength will have to pass through these choke points. any approaches will have to come over passes or narrow roads

defending these is considerably easier than taking them, especially if you have moved in armour or materials for strong defensive positions. the high altitude restricts or prevents helicopter movement, infantry flanking attacks means physically climbing over very difficult mountain terrain, where resupply of critical ammunition becomes a problem

whilst the 1947-48 mujahids did indeed advance along here, i doubt very much if these were strongly contested. it appears that they advanced rapidly by sweeping past 'police units' and then paused to loot and rape baramulla, and then a nunnery outside srinagar. that in itself provided the window for the IA airlift to reach srinagar and consolidate defences

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 14:03
by rohitvats
Lalmohan wrote:peaks are only held for observation purposes, so that artillery and air power can be directed onto troops on the low lying areas. highly effective as we have seen in the kargil case the valleys almost always will have a choke point, perhaps a narrowing of the mountains, perhaps a river crossing.

Any penetration in strength will have to pass through these choke points. any approaches will have to come over passes or narrow roads defending these is considerably easier than taking them, especially if you have moved in armour or materials for strong defensive positions. the high altitude restricts or prevents helicopter movement, infantry flanking attacks means physically climbing over very difficult mountain terrain, where resupply of critical ammunition becomes a problem
Lalmohan saar, thank you for highlighting the difficulties in these hi-alt operations succinctly. This is what I was alluding to in my posts earlier.

If you observe the language used to describe any sector in these areas - the word complex is used. As in a system of interlinked features. The Valley floor and mountains and ridges around it. The defender can and will sit in high ridges around these valleys to prevent you from passing through and outflanking him. And you will have to fight uphill to get the enemy to vacate these ridges dominating the valley floors.
whilst the 1947-48 mujahids did indeed advance along here, i doubt very much if these were strongly contested. it appears that they advanced rapidly by sweeping past 'police units' and then paused to loot and rape baramulla, and then a nunnery outside srinagar. that in itself provided the window for the IA airlift to reach srinagar and consolidate defences
There were not more than 1000 PA troops and iirc, mostly from Gilgit Scouts. I will write more on this later.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 14:32
by shiv
Bade wrote:
In the case of rivers that originate in the PoK areas, it flows westwards to drain into the Arabian sea, unlike the major rivers that run through the Indian plains which originate in the eastern part of J&K. Hence, the local incline as we move west along the valleys at least must be favorable to us. For the Pakis to get to Kargil/Leh in '48 must have been an uphill walk against the gradient, no ?
Bade - look at the river origin map below.

The rivers originate in Himachal Pradesh. Not Kashmir. The Northern rivers (Indus/Shyok) stay in the high mountains as the descend westwards onto POK.

The peaks overlooking Kargil are an uphill walk from Pakistan. They are an uphill climb from India. The peaks are the same, The approach from the west happens to have more gentle slopes and paths. Supplies are easier from Pakistan.

In 1947-48 the attacks on Srinagar were part of Op Gulmarg with lashkars imported from NWFP. But for Kargil it was the locals - the Gilgit scouts.

Image

Larger image
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _river.svg

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 14:36
by Lalmohan
there can be zero appreciation of military operations without a solid understanding of physical geography
at the macro and micro levels

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 18:11
by RamaY
^ No one is denying that fact. But complete emphasis on geography is also equally unnecessary, given the unalterable nature of geography. Didn't PRC/PAK overcome the difficulty of terrain in building and maintaining KKH against high odds. If this region is important to Indian Interests it is worth the price.

NA covers >72,000 Sq.KM area and I am highly confident that IA can find suitable strategy to surmount the challenges and achieve victory.

Beyond a call for specialized equipment and sound strategy (both operational and logistical) the geography cannot be an excuse for the intention and preparedness given the geopolitical importance of this theater.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 18:15
by Lalmohan
the most effective way is to cut the supply lines from the plains to the mountains

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 18:25
by RamaY
Probably. But that would amount to offensive attacks and Paquis would respond in the same way they would in case of a all-out war.

This issue has to be tackled from multiple angles. Geopolitical, strategic, trade, diplomatic, military etc., The military component is crucial as it gives the necessary backbone to all other channels.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 19:01
by Lalmohan
^^^ "ugly stability"
thats what has basically prevented a full blown Sino-Indian conflict for the past few decades

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 22:36
by ManuT
brihaspati wrote: "Caution" is good. No one likes the loss of lives of soldiers of our army. Maybe India should plan to raise separate forces for special operations across and outside of borders? A more ideologically committed force than that can be allowed within the "professional" framework of the army, that also has little confusion as to the necessity of eliminating anything even remotely connected to the word "Pak" and that stops short of no "costs" other than the jeopardy of the continued existence of India. The army can continue its cautious build-up plans to defend the country's current borders only, while the special forces prepare the ground for future complete elimination of all things Pak. 
How will they be different from existing SF, except added with ideology. Like the Revolutionary/Republican Guards that are typically needed to defend a 'revolution'.
brihaspati wrote: Without some degree of "fanaticism" the Pak-forces will always appear larger-than-life, with supposed shadows of USA or PRC growing longer and longer beside it.
I do not think IA is in awe of TSPA, or ever was, the reasons for caution are alive in the mil history forum the issues of acquisitions.

To put it in brief, the inherent problem with fanatics is that they they suffer from errors in judgement.

Also, history of warfare is more of leaders that did not heed to caution than those who did. If is understood what is at stake, the need for caution,  will be appriciated. 

Also, the families understand what soldiers signed up for, so nobody is under any illusions, what they expect is, that they do not die needlessly, unnecessarily or carelessly. It is most important the soldiers were given the tools/ equipment/ protections to succeed to beign with. GOI can at any point can say 'SNAFU! beam me up, scotty'.
RamaY wrote: ... War mean casualties ...
War does mean casualties. There is nothing worng in the expectation that every other option has been rightfully execrised in the process. The question is not restricted to asking from WKKs, battle plans might be a go /no go on the basis of this analysis. OTOH, to not ask this question before everytime would raise serious red flags.  

Also, keep in mind, there no option for GOI to enforce it's will, as a last resort, beyond IA. To the people with linkages to the services, please, be careful in what is stated, in an accessible forum like BR. Just because a question has been asked, doesn't mean it has to be given a perfect response.

Lastly, I realise, from the various statements that there is a conflict of the vision of India itself, and that it will continue. 

(Ramana sir, added as requested. I was making observations based on the general flow of comments of the thread and directed to all, not just to brihaspati or RamaY. Thanks.)

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 22:39
by ramana
^ManuT, Please try to include who you are quoting. The thread moves so fast it become difficult to figure out whom you are replying to.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 23:07
by brihaspati
ramana ji,
he is responding to my post.

Fanaticism and "fanatics" are different - one is an ideological state, while other is a permanent feature in an individual. Certain forms of fanaticism can rest in the moment and in a group environ only. But it does seem that a degree of ideological commitment can add an edge when complete elimination and erasure is intended of an enemy.

Ideally the armed forces of a country should reflect the majority sentiments of the country, but in Indian history there has been times when such reflections were not automatically obvious as in the BIA. An esteemed officer in this forum once strongly presented the case that IA has to be a "professional" army which only takes orders from the elected government. But more than that in the course of that debate what emerged was the perception that IA is somehow "different" from the types of "communal divisions" and fissures that apparently exist in the civilian population. So obviously the army thinks and acts on a different note to the general population.

I formally understand the formal logic of "professionalism" quite well, which practically amounts to ignoring or suppressing any ideological considerations in carrying out what the hard and cold objectives have been stated as by the superior command. As you point out that GOI can enforce its authority on the IA and also that IA is the ultimate instrument it can use to fortify its own position.

Therefore I had proposed exploring alternatives to asking and planning for the IA to go into domains for which they have not been given the resources and for which the GOI is not politically prepared - here on this forum. It is putting too much of pressure on a relationship that has worked very well so far. I do not see why seeking to prevent loss of professional soldier's lives is a bad thing anyway. SF is a small proportion of the total outlay. To eliminate Pak one may need something much larger. To prevent Pak from ever reviving the complete dismantling of its ideological apparatus has to be undertaken which may mean elimination of theologians and their functionaries. That probably will need also an ideological commitment to overcome "neutrality" considerations. Moreover a professional army within its internationally recognized operational framework cannot carry out that ideological agenda. Hence the question of "ideologically committed".

I don't understand the problem in not wanting to force one mindset on a completely different one, and create impossible stresses.

The caution and no-caution debate can go on for ages. But OT for this thread.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 23:16
by ramana
I was intrigued by the comment on ideological commitment for the armed forces. We can explore it in GDF.

Also Bji I have a question for you in nukkad.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 23:32
by chetak
ramana wrote:I was intrigued by the comment on ideological commitment for the armed forces. We can explore it in GDF.

Also Bji I have a question for you in nukkad.

Nothing much to explore saar.

It will mirror that of the general population, warts and all. :)

This is however a very dangerous road to go casually wandering on. Interested lurkers will cherry pick and quote out of context as is their wont.

This topic is strictly avoided in the Armed Forces and IMVHO it should be avoided here too.

Your call.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 23:33
by ramana
Ok.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 00:25
by chetak
ramana wrote:Ok.
:)

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 01:05
by brihaspati
chetak wrote:
ramana wrote:Ok.
:)
"warts and all"? even after the "priest" was allowed to be sacrificed? :P Okay - end of discussion.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 07:39
by suryag
Second installment of the interview

Pakistan's foundations are flawed

something curious in the last slide which reinforces what Badeji said about uranium in the himalayas
The offices of a Chinese mining company in Gilgit. China has absolute control over local mining sites .The region is rich in copper, gold, uranium etc. Picture courtesy Senge Sering

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 16:15
by RajeshA
X-Posted from TIRP Thread
Dilbu wrote:Gwadar Port may be given to China Special Report on Balochistan
GWADAR: The news that Gwadar port is all set to be taken away from the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) and is likely to be given to the Chinese may have repercussions that go much beyond its white sand shores.

Official sources confirm that “an understanding to that effect has already developed at the highest levels but it will take a while before the legal and administrative constraints are removed.” The biggest constraint remains the agreement with the PSA, which was given the right to run the port for 40 years. However, official sources are confident that the PSA had given them sufficient grounds to revoke the agreement. Apart from its failure to bring a single commercial ship to the Gwadar docks, the PSA has not invested even a fraction of the $525 million it had committed to spend in five years.
Some more confirmation of the theories put forth here! The Freight and Gas Corridor between PoK and Gwadar is becoming a reality.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 16:34
by Lalmohan
PRC like Unkil is preparing for a balkanised paquistan
current tamasha in srinagar valley is a diversionary tactic by dragon via pet psychotic piggie with a deathwish (aka paquistan)
india has to stake out its claims now

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 17:12
by D Roy
when TSP breaks up,

the G-2 intends to possibly retain baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan respectively.

Yindoos "consolation" prize will be the lost brotheristans of pakjabidom and Sindh.

So G-2 will nicely try to keep the useful parts of the former TSP with low population density and "gift" us the majority of yahoos with some middle class.

Don't be surprised if a clamour by long lost WKK types talk about Punjabiyat and demand massive aid packages for West Punjab.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 17:28
by Lalmohan
yes - i think you are right about the G2

and despite punjabiyat... the pakjabis have drunk too oft of the poison well to retain any sanity
they will implode into a hideous mess
haris, christians and urban hindus will be slaughtered unless they can be saved by the UN (yeah right!)
in all cases the pakjabi military class/feudals and the talibs must must fight each other to the bitter end

possibly there may be a greater sindhustan and pashtunistan, need to see where the seraikis and hindkohs want to go, an ugly exchange of populations and a very sanguinary de-toxing of karachi awaits

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 17:38
by RajeshA
D Roy wrote:when TSP breaks up,

the G-2 intends to possibly retain baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan respectively.
Gwadar is being given to the Chinese, so is Gilgit Baltistan. Where does USA come in? Why do the Chinese need to share their bounty with the Americans?

Americans make grand plans, implement 15% of it, which ends up helping their rivals. That is all the Chanakyaness there is to it. They expend their energies, blood and treasury too readily and have only slick PR to show for it.

The only place USA plans ever worked were Europe, Japan, Demise of Soviet Union, and the Gulf countries (not including Iraq). All the rest were failures. Afghanistan is going to be one big failure. Pakistan is going to be one big failure. They should outsource some of their thinking.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 17:46
by Lalmohan
pak is giving baluchistan to chinese, in the event of balkanisation (palkanisation?) then unkil may well contest it, already has a foothold via the base

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:08
by RajeshA
Lalmohan wrote:pak is giving baluchistan to chinese, in the event of balkanisation (palkanisation?) then unkil may well contest it, already has a foothold via the base
So if it is up for contest, then that means there is no G2 plan for Pakistan!

Then USA might as well go the whole hog and contest all aspects of the Chinese plans for PoK and Gwadar.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:12
by Lalmohan
(sorry, having a duh! moment)
no joint plan, but perhaps individual plans
unkil doesnt need gilgit-baltistan very much, unless its to deny dragon
would it not be better to outsource that to india?
(bangalore, kerala to be precise)

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:15
by RajeshA
Lalmohan wrote:would it not be better to outsource that to india?
(bangalore, kerala to be precise)
They should outsource that to India, AND cooperate to make the plan succeed.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:23
by Lalmohan
hence seligman's article?

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:29
by RajeshA
Lalmohan wrote:hence seligman's article?
Exactly!

However it is unclear from the article, whether USA wants to needle China using India to make some bargain on one thing or another, or whether they are really interested and willing to commit themselves to the idea.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 18:31
by Lalmohan
unkil may be biding his time, seeing which way the palkanisation cookie crumbles
afterall, this area is up against pakhtoon lands...
either way, its a shot across the bows of the dragon boat

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 20:01
by RamaY
D Roy wrote:when TSP breaks up,

the G-2 intends to possibly retain baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan respectively.

Yindoos "consolation" prize will be the lost brotheristans of pakjabidom and Sindh.

So G-2 will nicely try to keep the useful parts of the former TSP with low population density and "gift" us the majority of yahoos with some middle class.

Don't be surprised if a clamour by long lost WKK types talk about Punjabiyat and demand massive aid packages for West Punjab.
My prediction on TSP breaks up,

NWFP - will be united with southern Afghanistan to make a united Pakthunistan (This is wahabhi share)
Baluchistan - Independent but heavy US-PRC presence (US share)
Sindh - Independent under US/UK influence (US/UK share)
Pakjab - Independent Under US/PRC presense
NA - gifted to PRC (PRC share)

India will be left with nothing except development of northern-Afghanistan under UN charter.

The only area India can claim and fight for is POK. This will forever break US/PRC cabal in the sub-continent and speedup the process of Indian emergence.

I understand and agree with the heavy costs logic, but the benefits outweigh exponentially. without POK (which will create contunuous PRC influence zone in 3sides of India; east/north/west) India will become another Japan; an economic powerhouse at the mercey of PRC/USA.

Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 20:22
by D Roy
Deshwasiyon,
By all indications the GWOT in Af Pak is being run from baluchistan.

Baluchistan is the point through which *most* NATO supplies transit into AF and the US operates quite a few predator/reaper flights out of there.
In fact the airbases in baluchistan are probably under joint control.

And just next door a phucking big US base is coming up in the Desert Of Death in Helmand province. I am of course talking about Camp Leatherneck.

Balochistan is priority number one for Unkil. And Chicom is happily building the ports needed for greater throughput.