Bharat Rakshak

Devoid of any inside insights to India's military planning or access to classified information on India's defense postures, as a strategic analyst with decades of experience in this field, one can assert that Indian Army's defense postures presently in Ladakh are sound only in terms of minimal defensive deployments to "defend" Ladakh.

India's defense postures in Ladakh, however, cannot be assessed as forcefully strong in terms of imposing dissuasion or generating "effective military deterrence" on China and Pakistan not to entertain any aggressive designs against the Ladakh Sector.

The Indian Government needs to "speed-track" the build-up of Indian Army defense postures in Ladakh to the level of "effective military deterrence" to deter China and Pakistan from military adventurism against the Ladakh Sector. This becomes a pressing military imperative in view of enhancement of China's and Pakistan's military capabilities overall against India and China's emergence as a substantive stakeholder in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

China in terms of political and strategic signaling to its adversaries does not act impulsively and therefore the Chinese challenge of changing the strategic status-quo in South Asia has to be viewed as a well thought out and calibrated Chinese strategy to counteract what it perceives as growing reinforcing of the US-India Strategic Partnership.

These combined moves by China and Pakistan seemed to have been coincidently timed with the United States wavering commitments in Afghanistan and an India emasculated by strategic indecisiveness and lacking strategic audacity in tackling its military threats from China and Pakistan, both singly and jointly.

Some may react to this Paper as sensationalizing a trivial issue involving Chinese assistance to Pakistan in upgradation of infrastructural development in its border regions. What must not be forgotten is that in such development trivia germinate the foundations of an enlarging China-Pakistan strategic nexus and collusiveness which is bound to generate reverberations amongst neighbors.

By making available the Karakoram Corridor to China, Pakistan in effect has enabled China to offset America’s maritime superiority choking China at the strategic chokepoints that dot China’s energy lifelines from the Gulf to China.

Pakistan in effect has therefore sided with the United States enemy and helped China in defeating American strategies to contain China’s rising military profile.

Taking off from the above is that in the ongoing United States-China power games Pakistan’s active assistance in enhancing the capacity of the Karakoram Corridor allows China to establish a meaningful and substantive strategic foothold in close proximity of the strategic Straits of Hormuz vital for American embedment in the Gulf Region andglobal energy supplies. Pakistan has therefore enabled force-multipliers to China against the United States when the Karakoram Corridor is coupled with Gwadur Port and Pakistan Navy bases on the Makran Coast.

China with the ongoing joint moves with Pakistan is now in a position to outflank United States military presence in Afghanistan. Further, with such enhanced postures, China can be inclined to be less helpful in solution of the Afghanistan conflict. China’s military presence in areas adjoining Afghanistan is likely to be used as a strong leverage by China against the United States.

China’s overall strategy has been to force the United States to exit the Asia Pacific. Pakistan’s current strategy is to prompt and induce the United States exit from Afghanistan. While China may not succeed in forcing USA out of the Asia Pacific, Pakistan seems to be making headway in prompting USA to withdraw from Afghanistan. Such a strategic vacuum so caused leaves China in a dominating position in Greater South West Asia with its Pakistan satellite doing the spadework.

Resultantly, the United States leverages in South Asia to restrain Pakistan’s military adventurism and its WMD proliferation get that much more curtailed. In actual fact, the most striking imperative for Pakistan for its strengthening strategic collusiveness with China is spurred by the pronounced national anti-Americanism predominating Pakistan and Pakistan’s strategy to shake-off United States strategic hold over Pakistan.

In a case of reversed strategic irony, “Pakistan as a frontline state in United States strategy so far, would now emerge as China’s frontline state in Chinese Grand Strategy against the United States”.

What if this is a joint agreement between US, PRC and Pakistan for taking care of POK

OT, Rajesh ,can you please use dark brown or some other colour for the highlights. The red is too light and requires too much focussing.

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<SNIP>

India's defense postures in Ladakh, however, cannot be assessed as forcefully strong in terms of imposing dissuasion or generating "effective military deterrence" on China and Pakistan not to entertain any aggressive designs against the Ladakh Sector.

The Indian Government needs to "speed-track" the build-up of Indian Army defense postures in Ladakh to the level of "effective military deterrence" to deter China and Pakistan from military adventurism against the Ladakh Sector. This becomes a pressing military imperative in view of enhancement of China's and Pakistan's military capabilities overall against India and China's emergence as a substantive stakeholder in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

The control of Pakistani-administered Kashmir will give China a strategic land access to the Gulf through Pakistan. As Harrison points out, "It takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese tankers to reach the Gulf. When high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit-Baltistan are completed, China will be able to transport cargo from Eastern China to the new Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours."

Chinese People's Liberation Army soldiers also are constructing 22 tunnels in secret locations in Pakistan. One obvious use of these tunnels is for the projected gas pipeline from Iran to China, but they also can be used for missile storage sites in Pakistan.

I thought it was a meeting for airing their grievances. From the photo it appears it is more for airing their armpits. Pee..Yew...!

Nah! Its a forum to ask the local mullah questions on impotence and wayward wives, and how to blame everything on India. Apparently, everyone there had something to ask. The dark beareded one in the front row had two questions.

A few weeks ago, India successfully persuaded the World Bank to refuse a loan to Pakistan, which was going to help construct the Diamer dam in Gilgit-Baltistan. India objected on the grounds of this region being part of the Princely State of Jammu & Kashmir and hence lying outside Pakistani jurisdiction. While the decision of the World Bank has brought relief for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan, the occasion also invites one to review the events of the past sixty years, which reveal the chronological incidents of Pakistani oppression and disregard towards local needs and demands.

LM,

Zimble onlee, same printer and designer, considering the litracy levels in the POK. Or nat, ju tell

Amid the current unrest in the valley, Beijing has also invited Kashmiri separatist leaders for talks and offered itself as a mediator, ostensibly in a tit-for-tat for India's refuge for the Dalai Lama. Yet China is actually the third party to the dispute in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). While India holds about 45% of J&K territory and Pakistan controls 35%, China occupies about 20% (including Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley, ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963).

The denial of a visa in July 2010 to the Indian Army's Northern Commander, General B S Jaswal – who was to lead the fourth bilateral defense dialogue in Beijing – because he commanded "a disputed area, Jammu and Kashmir", was said to be the last straw.

Consequently, a new chill has descended on Sino-Indian relations. India retaliated by suspending defense exchanges with China and lodging a formal protest. New Delhi sees these moves as part of a new Chinese strategy with respect to Kashmir that seeks to nix its global ambitions and entangle India to prevent it from playing a role beyond the region. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Indian media: "Beijing could be tempted to use India's 'soft underbelly', Kashmir, and Pakistan to keep India in 'low-level equilibrium'."

^^^ Fine Idea that will just trigger WWIII. The better Idea will be to plot and execute the unraveling of the TSP. Thereby removing the state backing for the non state actors. That in turn will open up the region the POK for us.

JMT.

The Northern Areas, illegally occupied by Pakistan, has been renamed Gilgit-Baltistan. This region is of great strategic importance to India. It borders Afghanistan and is legally a part of India, but our decision-makers have been ignoring it. In the 20th century, the British were alive to its importance in the context of the threat from Czarist Russia, and after the 1917 Revolution from the Soviet Union. Current reports of an increased Chinese military presence in Gilgit are a cause of grave concern.

The British had a political agent at Gilgit and later obtained a lease to administer the area. As Independence approached, the lease was terminated and Gilgit reverted to Jammu and Kashmir. Brigadier Ghansara Singh of the state Army took over as governor of Gilgit from the British political agent, Colonel Beacon, on August 1, 1947. Major Brown, commanding the Gilgit Scouts, staged a military coup at Gilgit, surrounding the residence of the governor on November 1, 1947. Brig. Ghansara Singh was forced to surrender and the Pakistan flag was hoisted in Gilgit. Pakistan got its first taste of a military coup. The non-Muslim troops of the Maharaja’s Army took refuge in Skardu fort along with a large number of Hindu and Sikh refugees. Col. Shahmsher Jung Thapa was commanding the garrison. On November 1, 1947, when this coup took place, Pakistani forces had advanced to the outskirts of Srinagar. With our backs to the wall, we were preparing to launch an offensive to throw them out of the Valley. Our resources were slender in the Valley and could not be reinforced in the winter.

The grass airfield at Srinagar would soon become unusable after snowfall and the road across Banihal pass was blocked with snow. There was then no tunnel at Banihal. We were in no position to do anything about Gilgit. When the snow melted and the road and air communications were restored, we reinforced our strength in the Valley. Our summer offensive was launched with the main thrust to Muzaffarabad. Gurais Valley was secured in the north to guard against the threat from Gilgit and Sonamarg in the East against the threat from Kargil, then under Pakistani occupation. The relief of Skardu was to be carried out subsequently.

Our summer offensive achieved reasonable success with the capture of Tithwal, tantalisingly close to Muzaffarabad. On the appeal of the UN to both India and Pakistan, our offensive was suspended in June 1948. The Skardu garrison held out heroically for six months. Unfortunately, we did not then have transport aircraft with pressurised cabins, needed for flying at 20,000 feet, to carry out air drops at Skardu. By August 1948, food ran out in Skardu, which had a large civilian population that had taken shelter there.

We had to most reluctantly order the Skardu garrison to surrender. On August 14, 1948, Col. Thapa had to raise the white flag. The enemy massacred Hindus and Sikhs. By September they captured Kargil and advanced to Ladakh, threatening Leh. After two unsuccessful attempts we managed to break through the Zoji-la heights, establishing a world record by using tanks at such high altitude. We captured Kargil and advanced another 200 miles to secure Leh. Soon the ceasefire came into force and Gilgit Baltistan remained under Pakistan occupation.

Pakistan has been assiduously promoting two myths. First, Gilgit was liberated by an indigenous freedom movement against the tyrannical rule of the Maharaja and the people joined Pakistan of their free will. Second, Gilgit-Baltistan was never a part of J&K. Pakistan detached Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and denied its people basic political rights. They still cannot vote for the Pakistan Parliament.

All the top government positions are held by Pakistanis who get special allowances for serving in the region, as the British officers got in India.

The council, recently designated an Assembly, has a nominated chairman known as the chief executive officer with a local deputy elected on a very limited franchise. Eighty-five per cent of the people in the region are Shias and are subjected to ethnic and sectarian violence. There has been a prolonged agitation in the region against anti-Shia school textbooks and the government settling Punjabis and Pathans to alter the region’s demographic profile. Interestingly, members of the United Gilgit-Baltistan movement recently complained that India has not been doing anything for them and they want reservation of seats in Indian educational institutions for students from their region!

Although New Delhi maintains the whole of J&K is an integral part of India, we have been indifferent to the travails of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan.

In March 1953, Pakistan gifted 5,000 sq. km of territory in Shansgam Valley to China. The Karakoram Highway through this region provides a road link between China and Pakistan.

In the present crisis, we can no longer remain indifferent to Gilgit-Baltistan. Simultaneously, we need to build our military muscle to deter military adventurism against us by either China or Pakistan. Belatedly, some efforts are now being made. This must be completed on a war footing to safeguard our national interests.

A rail link is now under construction from Tibet to join the Pakistan rail network and connect to Gwadar port. Permanent military barracks have been constructed for increasing numbers of Chinese troops. This region is an important link in China’s String of Pearls strategy to contain India. In 2005, we agreed to the opening of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road. As governor of J&K, in my Republic Day address that year I had urged the opening of the Kargil-Skardu road. Musharraf had allowed a PoK delegation led by a former chief justice to visit Srinagar. This included four members from Gilgit. These four called on me and thanked me for taking up the opening of the Kargil-Skardu road. They wanted their visas extended to enable them to visit Kargil because, they said, they had a deep attachment for the people of Kargil. I arranged for them to visit Kargil. They also mentioned their local problems. Baroness Emma Nicholson, a member of the European Union Parliament, was deputed to prepare a report on Kashmir. She visited PoK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Indian-administered Kashmir. I had a long discussion with her in Srinagar. In her report she praised the functioning of democracy in Indian-administered Kashmir, criticised the lack of it in PoK and its total absence in Gilgit-Baltistan. Pakistan tried to scuttle this report but the European Parliament passed it by over 400 votes, with only nine votes against it.

In the present crisis, we can no longer remain indifferent to Gilgit-Baltistan. Simultaneously, we need to build our military muscle to deter military adventurism against us by either China or Pakistan. Belatedly, some efforts are now being made. This must be completed on a war footing to safeguard our national interests.

- The author, a retired lieutenant-general, was
Vice-Chief of Army Staff and has served as governor of Assam and Jammu and Kashmir.

Chitral-Tajikistan road first survey completed..... Salim Khan

From Our Correspondent

CHITRAL : NWFP Minister for Population welfare, Saleem Khan has disclosed that a survey of Tajikistan Road from Chitral to Afghan boarder has been completed which has declared Lotkoh valley of district Chitral as the most feasible, suitable and safest place for the proposed Tajikistan Road expressing the hope that work on the project would be started during the reign of the present government of PPP.

-Excerpt- Arbab said that 220 kilometres long Pakistan-Tajikistan Road would be the shortest route between the two countries and include a five-kilometre tunnel at Dorrah Pass on the Pak-Afghan border. He said that Prince Karim Aga Khan had been taking personal interest in the construction of the road and had also indicated to extend financial support in this regard.

^^^ Whether it is POK or COK, it is Indian land under Illeagle occupation by India's enemies. The position of India will not change regardless of who cotrols them.

It will be interesting to see if the GOI will try to physicaly tke over the land in case of TSP collapse.