US - China Trade War : Where is India ?

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Jun 2019 16:13

I don't think the US-China spat is going anywhere soon. There will be trade and strategic advantages to be utilised on both sides for a country like India. This thread would be on how best we can utilize this situation. Geopolitics does indeed make strange bedfellows. As Kissinger said no nation can have permanent friends, only shared interests. India has shared interests with America but less publicized one with China as well.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 20 Jun 2019 16:34

Let us see if the PRc will block India at the next NSG or get one of its proxies like Turkey to vote against India. Huawei 5g access to India should be linked to the NSG.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Jun 2019 16:38

interesting but to actually bargain India needs a viable alternative to Huawei ? do we have options? if we have credible options or make it then we can indeed put Huawei as a bargaining chip for the NSG . its all give and take but the percentages vary , and most often the optics skewed in favour of China but this should not happen again

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Jun 2019 16:42

dont need another desi huawei for this - nokia siemens and ericsson would gladly consume the indian 5G market when it happens.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 20 Jun 2019 16:52

At present HW market share is set to grow to a point where it becomes a monopoly in India, whilst its patron the PRC Government continues to block India at the NSG - the total cost of both is far in excess of any benefit. And this is even before one factors in the loss of business from Western fin-tech, pharma, etc companies who might shy away from using HW 5g network.
What India should be demanding, is the same thing that the Chinese used to insist from Western and Japanese companies. If china wants market access then the vote at the NSG is the first step - remember that the Clintons got China in at the NSG and the WTO, whilst sanctioning India

chola · Post by **chola** » 20 Jun 2019 16:55

Singha wrote:dont need another desi huawei for this - nokia siemens and ericsson would gladly consume the indian 5G market when it happens.

True. It all comes down to cost.

rgosain wrote:At present HW market share is set to grow to a point where it becomes a monopoly in India, whilst its patron the PRC Government continues to block India at the NSG - the total cost of both is far in excess of any benefit.

We blocked them on SAARC but they allowed us into SCO and RCEP.

India might be far more adept at these things than we tend to believe. We might be keeping HW around to wrangle better deals from Nokia and Ericsson.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 20 Jun 2019 17:11

chola wrote:
Singha wrote:dont need another desi huawei for this - nokia siemens and ericsson would gladly consume the indian 5G market when it happens.
True. It all comes down to cost.

rgosain wrote:At present HW market share is set to grow to a point where it becomes a monopoly in India, whilst its patron the PRC Government continues to block India at the NSG - the total cost of both is far in excess of any benefit.
We blocked them on SAARC but they allowed us into SCO and RCEP.

India might be far more adept at these things than we tend to believe. We might be keeping HW around to wrangle better deals from Nokia and Ericsson.

There are also Samsung, LG, even good old Cisco, and a few from Japan. One of the things is that PRC have been able to dominate, buy-off most of the key Euro telco groups or to make them dependant on HW technology such as vod and EE in the UK.
That nsg meeting is this week and no on expects any progress

kit · Post by **kit** » 21 Jun 2019 00:19

What are Indias options to have the chinese do what we want., am pretty sure uncle with heat up Mr Hans a@@ a bit further

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 21 Jun 2019 02:51

Somehow, we seem to be thinking we are in a position to take advantage of this spat between the great Khan and Cheen. It is actually, that Trump will come after us more aggressively after his re-election, I guarantee it. If you feel the pulse (and we all should try to) of the American MAGA Public on social media, the word "H1B Visa" is like a Cancer Positive Result, they unanimously hate it. Breitbart, Ann Coulter, Stefan Molyneux, VDARE, Mike Cernovich, Victor Davis Hanson, Michelle Malkin, Pat Buchanan, Richard Spencer et all - all uniformly hate immigration (their views range from Alt-Right to Alt-Lite), and particularly from India. I am not taking a position on their views (whether they are justified or not), they reflect the angst of the core MAGA base, and Stephen Miller and Trump cant ignore them. We should try to keep up with the above mentioned folks as between them they have twitter following of ~10 M+ and really reflect the 'more than high school' educated MAGA/Trumpian base.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jun 2019 03:15

Manu wrote:Somehow, we seem to be thinking we are in a position to take advantage of this spat between the great Khan and Cheen. It is actually, that Trump will come after us more aggressively after his re-election, I guarantee it. If you feel the pulse (and we all should try to) of the American MAGA Public on social media, the word "H1B Visa" is like a Cancer Positive Result, they unanimously hate it. Breitbart, Ann Coulter, Stefan Molyneux, VDARE, Mike Cernovich, Victor Davis Hanson, Michelle Malkin, Pat Buchanan, Richard Spencer et all - all uniformly hate immigration (their views range from Alt-Right to Alt-Lite), and particularly from India. I am not taking a position on their views (whether they are justified or not), they reflect the angst of the core MAGA base, and Stephen Miller and Trump cant ignore them. We should try to keep up with the above mentioned folks as between them they have twitter following of ~10 M+ and really reflect the 'more than high school' educated MAGA/Trumpian base.

It may not be bad for India.

Several top banks/financial companies are opening up centers in India and even now pushing top managerial jobs that oversee US workers to India. This only will be helping India in long term

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jul 2019 01:51

Marketplace a new site for economic news had an op-ed that the US-China trade war has ended and its DT that backed down due to coming elections.
US allows Huawei to buy chips, China buys soya beans etc.
and no change on tariffs on existing $250B goods.

kit · Post by **kit** » 02 Jul 2019 04:02

The war has simmered down but conflict continues between the US and China on a whole range of issues, right from technology restriction to trade.Its the beginning of an end. Trump has uncorked the genie from the bottle unshackling the taboo of not containing China that no US president had done before. Xi s body posture shows he is just biding his time.

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 Jul 2019 06:06

^^^ No, it is the other way around. Trump is just the first of many presidents to come who will turn China into another Japan -- wealthy and nominally powerful but always second fiddle to the US.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... japan/amp/

Trade War: America Is Trying To Turn China Into Another Japan

Panos Mourdoukoutas Contributor
Markets

Washington wants to be in control of US-China trade. The same way it wanted to be in control of the US-Japan trade back in the 1980s.

That’s has been obvious from the very beginning of the trade negotiations, as it was written previously here. But it became more obvious after the breaking down of the negotiations back in May.

The sticky issue between the two sides isn’t so much on negotiation targets. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to cut tariffs on some American products and raise import targets on others.

It’s rather how a trade agreement should be enforced, so Washington gets measurable outcomes out of China.

That was also the sticky point in trade negotiations between America and Japan back in the 1980s. And America came up with the formula: the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act.

Here’s how it happened.

In November 1983, the Regan administration began talks with Japan regarding the opening of its capital markets and the appreciation of the yen, an effort that led to the Plaza Accord of September 1985. Parallel to these efforts, in early in 1985, the two sides opened talks on another front, the Market-Oriented Sector –Sensitive negotiations. The talks covered four specific areas of trade friction: electronics, medical equipment, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals. One year later, in 1986, the two sides agreed to establish the Structural Economic Dialogue, a preface to the Structural Impediments Initiative, which addressed trade issues for specific products on a regular basis (six months). In 1988, the US Congress enacted the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act, in essence placing the US-Japan trade under Washington’s control.

Eventually, Japan had no choice but to surrender to American demands.

siqir · Post by **siqir** » 02 Jul 2019 09:31

chinese state media xinwen lianbo day before was all happiness and sunshine about the bright and beautiful future haha

yesterday dropped all rhetoric of trade friction to just talk of trade negotiations

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jul 2019 21:38

In middle of Huawei crossfires!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jul 2019 21:40

Question for all folks here:

Can you explain why US deep state does not want India to buy Huawei 5G?

Please give 5 or 6 points .

kit · Post by **kit** » 02 Jul 2019 22:04

ramana wrote:Question for all folks here:

Can you explain why US deep state does not want India to buy Huawei 5G?

Please give 5 or 6 points .

Starts from the level of enabling techhnology 5G is, Internet of Things, closely integrates every human and machine in advanced societies though it will be just speed that we are concerned about in India for starters
Financial markets and economy will get a huge boost with real time implementation with AI wrt to marketing predictions inventories etc , also the information that is a goldmine for a potential competitor or country.
The country that gets a foothold will remain so, its hard to change a backbone service once in place
The world literally would be carved out into western access devices and chinese, it depends on which you choose
Despite their professing not to, Huwaei will have backdoors, it is a given
The real time intelligence gathering will have huge socioeconomic risks
Germany actually put it rather bluntly, its just a matter of which backdoor you are going to let in , the NSA or the chinese.
As the country advances , this will be an increasingly risky proposition to have a rival that has direct access to the innards of its society economy and financial markets.The Chinese has played it well.I for one will opt for an Indian system if we had one.

The US does not want China to hold leverage over India the way it can happen, for same reasons.They want to be the ones to have that leverage !

siqir · Post by **siqir** » 03 Jul 2019 09:53

it is probably another sputnik moment for them

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_crisis

Kennedy claimed that "If the Soviets control space they can control the earth, as in past centuries the nation that controlled the seas dominated the continents"

maybe there is also some specific dent to some key offense defense intel capability which they dont have a fix for yet

their opposition to russian s400 sounds similar

chola · Post by **chola** » 03 Jul 2019 16:16

Trump's tariff trade war against Cheen was the right strategy. But his attack on ZTE and Huawei was not. US chips firms controlled the chini market now the US government is making them give it up.

If the chinis build a parallel chip ecosystem then that will really mean the end of US dominance in tech. Even though chini dominate cellphone and computer sales today, the cores of those machines are still American. When the chips are replaced with chini ones then American dominance ends.

From Wall Street's standpoint, this is not a good move.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/02/us- ... chips.html

Tech war with the US is spurring Chinese firms to develop their own chips, says venture capitalist

Huileng Tan | @huileng_tan
Published 10:22 PM ET Mon, 1 July 2019 Updated 4:00 AM ET Tue, 2 July 2019
CNBC.com

The U.S.-China trade war and the threat that Chinese firms could be cut off from using American technology is boosting China's push for its own semiconductor industry.

"Huge amounts of capital and talent are going to be thrown at building self-reliance and establishing a kind of parallel ecosystem here without dependence on U.S. chips, operating systems," said Ben Harburg, managing partner of MSA Capital, a Beijing-based venture capital firm.

"The rationale is that this moment created demand. Previously, it didn't have demand for those Chinese chips," Harburg told CNBC Monday at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

While there was government money in the past to back such businesses, the understanding was that there were always U.S. chips to fall back on.

"That has changed now where there was a moment of complete desperation where there wasn't an alternative to U.S. chips," said Harburg, who added that MSA Capital is now investing more in core technologies like chips, core artificial intelligence and companies that aren't dependent on U.S. chips.

...

A homegrown Chinese semiconductor industry will likely hurt American chip makers as China will aggressively push their chips not just domestically but to other markets, said Harburg.

"American companies in the hardware space like Apple have priced themselves out of markets like Africa. So if American chips aren't going in there, it's Chinese chips that are going into the phones being sold locally," he said.

Chinese tech manufacturers will also start targeting consumers in smaller cities in China, Harburg added.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2019 16:59

reality is cheen applied some hidden levers to make DT do a meek about turn and revoke the huawei ban on android use.

what those levers are nobody knows but it must not be good for american power optics so MSM is all instructed to be quiet and not enquire why after a flame n fury ban, DT did a 180' turn and google is back in bed with huawei.

china -1 , usa - 0

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 03 Jul 2019 18:48

Larry Kudlow tried to provide some context to Trump's Huawei walk back. The caveat is that nothing with Trump is final and anything and everything can change, but at least according to Kudlow, this is the state of play after the Trump-Xi meeting:

Non 5G related and non critical components/software will be on the table for discussion as it relates to Huawei when all other issues have been settled on the trade front between the 2 countries. i.e. non 5G Huawei will effectively become the last item on the trade negotiation agenda.

5G will forever be off the table. Huawei is banned from 5G networks in the US and access to supply of 5G gear and equipment and services will always be prohibited.

So it looks like it was a combination of lobbying on the part of US suppliers of non critical items to Huawei as well as Chinese representations that the total blacklist of Huawei was tantamount to a declaration of economic war on Huawei and thereby by extension on China that brought Huawei back on the negotiating table at least for non 5G items.

As far as India, China and 5G is concerned there was a interesting recent opinion piece in the ET on this issue:

View: India has to forge partnerships in developing 5G technology. Can India risk it with China?

To clear some basic misconceptions first, 5G is not just another spectrum upgrade, like 2G to 4G. In fact, the general consensus is that the impact on the mobile phone use experience is not even its principal fallout. If 4G allows connectivity to 10,000 people per square kilometre, then 5G could make it three million. But there is no such realistic need.

The applications for 5G will be on systems and machines that run facilities — they will allow for the creation of intelligent hardware that will affect transport, healthcare, robotics, defence items, electricity grids and other basic infrastructure. It’s 5G technology that will inform smart city initiatives, connectivity and impart modern facilities like remote medical surgery to rural areas. Essentially, 5G will be central to new models of governance.

But can it trust China on 5G? Because this would mean allowing Chinese technology to form the bedrock of your new cities, transport and electricity networks among several other key applications.

There’s no doubt that Chinese technology is both competent and inexpensive. However, when it comes to 5G, it’s important to know that this is not a commercial question. Much like space and nuclear, 5G is first and foremost a political call. And, perhaps, one of the most significant calls that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to make very early in his second term.

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 03 Jul 2019 18:56

Interesting. Can we hold off on the 5G until we have our own infra instead of piggy backing on either chini or amrikan infra? given both will have backdoors? A concept similar to development of NAVIC?

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 03 Jul 2019 20:17

4g speeds hardly come close to WiFi speeds. I doubt 5g will either under load. Turns out that 5g will need more towers in close proximity to cover a region.

Instead of putting billions into 5g, just connect the world city with thousands of gigibyte WiFi routers. Instead of VoLTE, you'll be making calls through VoWi-Fi. People already have them so you won't need billions to invest in hardware. 5g is essentially the same as WiFi in execution.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 04 Jul 2019 08:41

5G chipset belongs in handheld devices (mobile phones) as well as towers which receive such signals from the phone. First mover advantage that @kit mentioned, can give massive boost to Huawei because it will beat all Western manufacturers on price. All that income effectively goes towards further R&D, which will further solidify Huawei's moat. It is an existential crisis for uncle in the area of mobile tech supremacy (not yet in software). 5G is not the beginning or end, but I hope India can leverage its position to force the Chinese or Wyestern manufacturers to transfer tech and set up facilities in India to get preferred access to the Indian market, period!! Well, Chinese did the same thing 25 or so years ago. Time to pull China on China.

Although lot of attention is paid to speed and security implications of 5G, there are many other business areas (patent etc.) that are equally important.
Who is leading the 5G patent race?
What is 5G and who are the major players?
China dusts the U.S., Finland, and South Korea with 34% of key 5G patents

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2019 08:49

our telecom providers are struggling with low ARPU and high cost of spectrum. large swathes of the nation have no 3G and even in metros the 3G/4G is quite underprovisioned and spotty. our data rates per GB are the lowest due to Jio willing to run at losses to drive all out of business.

none of them are going to import anything cheeni or euro unless someone pays for it. and I do not see people rushing to invest anything. that leaves BSNL with needs a 75,000 cr pkt just to survive (!) they are looking at survival not 5G.

priority should be on developing our own, or making the others manufacture here and share technology. there is no hurry.

people who have shiny toys to sell will always make a case that its "essential" and a "enabler" just as rafale and pakfa >> mki and tejas . I see the big enabler if we can make LTE pervasive across the nation. sitting in middle of ORR belt here, even my 3G is spotty and obstructed by apartments.

telcos are not even willing to invest to make LTE pervasive.

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 04 Jul 2019 16:21

China is not to be second fiddle to anyone. The existence of the Middle Kingdom as a single political entity becomes more precarious by the day. They don’t have energy security, their economy is one big pyramid scheme built of bad loans, they have an aging population and one of their major economic lifelines is through a nightmare of islands and shallow waters where any ****** dimwit can sink a billion dollar worth of warship with a couple of million investment in materiel on a lucky day. And worst of all, they don’t have the navy to protect their trade or supply lines. Much as hitler the Chinese neofeudal lords have tried for too much too soon and it’s going to cost them everything. There will be kinetics and much bloodshed either in mainland China or wherever china’s present, but they tried to usurp the reigning hegemon while shooting blanks.

chola wrote:^^^ No, it is the other way around. Trump is just the first of many presidents to come who will turn China into another Japan -- wealthy and nominally powerful but always second fiddle to the US.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2019 16:57

>> they don’t have the navy to protect their trade or supply lines

they have more of a surface navy that russia+france+uk combined in DDGs/FFGs . is that good enough?
they have more SSNs than france and uk.
more LPH and LPD ships that uk+france+EU
and they are building cruisers and LPH ships at a insane rate, and SSNs are just starting to scale up.

they are now the worlds 2nd most powerful navy. backed by separate PLANAF. with PLAAF & 2nd arty (ASBMs) in support.

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 04 Jul 2019 18:57

Nuke subs:
SSBN
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jin-class_submarine
Planned: 8
Constructed: 6
Active: 4 (has noise issues)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_092_submarine
Planned: 1
Constructed: 1
Active: 1 (nosiest nuke in the sea)

SSN:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shang-class_submarine
Planned: 6
Constructed: 6
Active: 6 (china claims it’s as noisy as a latter day Los Angeles SSN, but USN ONI claims it’s as noisy as a 1979-era Victor III)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_091_submarine

Planned: 3
Constructed: 3
Active: 3 (there were three sub classes and the fact that just 1 was built of each should tell you how confident the Chinese are with this class.)

For that matter, how many combat patrols have Chinese SSNs and SSBNs been on? And how many of them in the Indian Ocean AO? Another black mark against the vaunted Chinese nuke force.

Diesel Subs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_039A_submarine
Planned: 20
Constructed: 17
Active: 17 9 (quiet)
Claimed endurance: 60days (this is open source. God knows if this is overstated to save Han face or understated to bluff enemies.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Song-class_submarine
Planned: 14
ConstructeD: 14
Active: 14 (the class had noise issues.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine
Planned: 12
Completed: 12
Active: less than 12 9quiet with horrible passive sensors

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_035_submarine
Planned: 25
Completed: 25
Active: 14 (oldest class)

So, about a third are hangar queens with some of the nukes having seen just one combat patrol. The diesels require logistics infrastructure to operate in the Indian Ocean AO, infrastructure which is, surprise, in range of our MKIs and our ballistic missiles. Also, the locals (if not the leaders) aren’t very keen on the Han and we can get a nice little rebellion by paying off local salafis, tribals, strongman, what have you.)

Surface combatants:

Aircraft carriers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_a ... r_Liaoning
Count: 1
Aircraft count: 26 SU33 copies
12 medium transport helicopters and 2 utility helicopters
Range of aircraft is significantly reduced thanks to the ski-jump and is likely a sitting duck away from shore based defenses against IN.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_001A ... ft_carrier
Count: 1
Aircraft; 32 SU 33 clones and 8 helicopters (not operational)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_002_aircraft_carrier
Count: first hull under construction. Will not be operational for another four or five years.

Amphibious warships (aka the ships they’ll use to invade Taiwan)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_071_ ... sport_dock
Planned: 7
Constructed: 5 with another 2 under construction
Active: 5 (no where near enough to even invade A&N islands much given the ranges involved.) Against Taiwan, the PLAN can depend on PLA to use their huge inventory of missiles to plaster Taiwanese shore defenses. Good luck using the PLAN aircraft carriers to do that in A&N and no one has any active battleship today to reduce shore based fortifications. Outcome, seas and land running with blood both ours and theirs and us emerging ultimate winners sans incompetent leadership)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_072A_landing_ship (more to invade Taiwan)
Planned: 15
Completed: 15 (can carry two companies or 5 medium tanks or 8 trucks. In other words, 250 corpses in waiting per hull per run against a steady defender)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_072III_landing_ship (more on the invade Taiwan train)
Planned: 10
Completed: 10 (again 250 corpses in waiting)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_072II_landing_ship (again with the Taiwan crap)
Planned: 4
Completed: 4 (250 corpses again)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_073_ ... nding_ship (ditto)
retired

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_074_ ... nding_ship
Planned: 12
Active: 10 (2 tanks each)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_074_landing_ship
Planned: 12
Active: 12 (2 tanks each)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer
Destroyers:
Planned: 8
Building: 5
Active 1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer
Building: 9
Active: 11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052C_destroyer
Active: 6

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_051C_destroyer
Active: 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052B_destroyer
Active: 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovremenn ... _destroyer
Active: 4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_051B_destroyer
Active: 1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052_destroyer
Active: 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_051_destroyer
Active: 2

Frigates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_054A_frigate
Active: 30

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_054_frigate
Active: 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_053H3_frigate
Active: 8

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_053_frigate
Active: 12

There are 52 hulls for antisubmarine role to protect convoys from wolf packs as well as to protect aircraft carrier groups. The older ones don’t have long legs and aren’t going to be relegated to the front lines. The new ones can’t protect all the convoys that China’ll have to protect transporting fuel from the Middle East to mainland China or other raw material and finished goods to the trade partners. And if you ask why China needs to worry about that, without the trade, China will have a civil war within a year.)

Corvettes:
Total count including old ones: 41 (60 planned) another 40 for the convoy protection role. Again not enough even with all the frigates thrown in given the long route the ships will have to sail to avoid interdiction by IN and because of the volume of trade.

Missile boats:
Active: 182 in service (approx.) very short legs designed to deny the seas close to Chinese shore to any and all comers. But we aren’t going to be fighting a war in Chinese littorals at least not at the beginning, are we?

Mine countermeasures:
Active: 33 approx. (possibly not enough given the SE Asian archipelago)

Fleet replenishment:
Active: 17 (that means they can only operate seventeen separate task forces at the maximum. The realistic number for a sustained campaign is about a possibly a third of that give or take.)

Now, consider the shape of the battlefield. Indian Ocean with India controlling access to the straits of malaca, as well as the lane between Indonesia and Australia (whatever do they call that sea?) thanks to the most strategically important real estate we have: the A&N islands.

Now, imagine if we install a puppet govt in Maldives, take out the Chinese base there and stage a squadron or two of MKIs with a few dozen Brahmos missiles (land or air launched.) Maldives and A&N are enough to deny the entirety of the Indian Ocean to PLAN.

What do you suppose the not-so-long-legged and certainly not-so-long-endurance PLAN do about our little uppity IN while still retaining enough force to browbeat all those neighbors they have been bullying for the last couple of decades?

As to bases in Burma (which is moving slowly into the Indian camp) or Pakistan, remember our missile boat raids in prior wars. We can use our missile boats to utterly destroy Karachi or whatever other harbor the Chinese want to use for a reasonable price in blood and steel on our side.

The game of numbers is all well and good, but shape and logistics rule the seas. We have such a superior position geography (shape-wise) and our logistics lines are only five or six times shorter than the Chinese and we don’t have to run a gauntlet to project force.)

Get back to me when the Chinese have a dozen or so carrier groups, all of which they can deploy into the Indian Ocean AO and then we’ll talk about how India’s chances are iffy (it wouldn’t be a lost cause even then because SHAPE again.)

As a Parthian shot, before you start talking about the one-belt one-road highways and rail lines, a bunch of US veteran (infantry, navy and intel folks) friends and I did an open source analysis of the requirements. The Chinese need something like 30 or forty separate tracks and a thousand or so tractors with about thirty or forty thousand trailers (with each train pulling a hundred trailers) just to carry the trade with the EU alone in good weather without any disruption. That’s an investment of how many billion dollars, across how many borders, all of which can be ruined by bombing a few key stations or fomenting a local rebellion? What the one-belt-one-road initiative really is a great Chinese welfare jobs program. It isn’t anywhere near realistic or economic in today’s world.

Singha wrote:>> they don’t have the navy to protect their trade or supply lines

they have more of a surface navy that russia+france+uk combined in DDGs/FFGs . is that good enough?
they have more SSNs than france and uk.
more LPH and LPD ships that uk+france+EU
and they are building cruisers and LPH ships at a insane rate, and SSNs are just starting to scale up.

they are now the worlds 2nd most powerful navy. backed by separate PLANAF. with PLAAF & 2nd arty (ASBMs) in support.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 04 Jul 2019 19:30

+1 Singha saar, I have said earlier if US navy can be the top dog half a world away in the Indian Ocean, then so can the Chinese.

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 04 Jul 2019 19:44

On a lighter note, excellent feeling, but where is the analysis?

abhik wrote:+1 Singha saar, I have said earlier if US navy can be the top dog half a world away in the Indian Ocean, then so can the Chinese.

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 Jul 2019 16:11

abhik wrote:+1 Singha saar, I have said earlier if US navy can be the top dog half a world away in the Indian Ocean, then so can the Chinese.

This is the main reason why we won't see much actual kinetic chini naval in the IOR. Cheen has its hands full with the US 7th Fleet parked on its door step. It'll have no chance with the 5th in the Gulf.

Our true threat from Cheen in the IOR is trade and infrastructure not its military.

The only "military" related game between Cheen and Bharat is one of perception on the number two spot in the region after Unkil. If Cheen sails a CATOBAR into the Persian Gulf and we have no answer then the Lizard takes the runner-up global power position in our backyard. No one would care that India can wipe the dozen or so PLAN vessels clean from the IOR in an actual war if there were no actual war.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jul 2019 16:44

India cannot do much if TSP allows PLAN to build a full on sanya type walled off base in gwader to dominate the sea of oman and sail up into the persian gulf? this is anyways coming.

the iranians dont mind the chinese their biggest customer of oil doing more to keep the americans at bay. they would offer a base if china paid something for it.

this will solve the logistics problem for the PLAN ships and subs apart from the smaller base in Djibouti in the horn of africa
pic of the highly guarded base https://www.google.com/maps/@11.5906234 ... a=!3m1!1e3

with two convenient bases their destroyer task forces and supply ships can prowl around and be the #2

they have arranged for large 'hotel ships' so that crews can be at sea and rotate for training into warships than stage out of china.

I agree that maritime lanes are not suitable for PLAN to quickly stage and sustain task forces from the ML china, but the picture changes when you consider gwader and all the food/POL the paks can provide there. this "west sea fleet" will look to play #2 to the huge murican 5th fleet in bahrain.
they can start with some training ships, survey ships, DDG/FFG types and gradually move to basing subs there.

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 05 Jul 2019 19:41

Straight line distance between Gwadar port and the Indian border is as little as 700km. That puts it within range of Shaurya, Nibhay, SCALP (which we've bought with the Rafale)... The Karakoram Highway, which is supposed to be Gwadar's lifeline in time of war, is closed for six months in a year and goes through the Khunjerb pass, which is at a height of 4700m above sea level. The distance between Mansehra, which is one of the towns on the highway and Srinagar is 150km - range of Prahaar missile. There are, I believe, 12 major bridges, 40 minor bridges, many tunnels, on the highway. If you'll look at a map, you'll note that the Pakistanis and the Chinese have taken every trouble to build the highway as far from the Indian border as possible, but they have get close to our border to cross the international border. The lay of the land dictates it. And where they are especially vulnerable to us is where exactly the places where the terrain the highway passes through is most difficult. Shutting down this lifeline in case of war is going to be hard, no argument there, but keeping it open and running will be a lot harder still.

In the event of war, if Pakistan allows Gwadar to be used to stage Chinese warships and further allows China to use those warships to conduct wartime operations, that's casus belli, and gives us all the right we need to pound the crap out of Gwadar as well as major vulnerable points on the highway.

As for Djibouti in the horn of Africa, that's the fag end of a long supply line going running through our AO. China cannot hope to keep the base supplied in times of hot war, which means what they have on hand at the start of a war is what they'll have to fight with for the most part. Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea are Djibouti's neighbors. How much do you think it'd cost to bribe a Somali warlord to strike into Djibouti or for the Djiboutians themselves to start a civil war? Where there is a will there is a way and when your enemy is stupid enough to create little pockets of force in your AO, you let him go ahead especially when he doesn't even control his littorals much less the Indian Ocean.

String of Pearls looks good on paper, but it is assumes that there won't be widespread war. The pearls are each geographically dispersed, unable to lend timely support or aid to one another and will be defeated in detail by an enemy who has the force and the will. IN does. Which makes the whole string of pearls strategy moot from the get go.

As for one-belt-one-road, the less said about that marvel of political stupidity, the better. It is China's attempt to secure supply lines by bypassing Indian Ocean and the straits of Malacca. Given that shipping by sea is cheapest of all modes, and that the Pakistan-China One-Belt-One-Road is within sights of our guns, runs through mountainous terrain for most of the route, is closed for half a year, gwadar lies in Baluchistan... I'm not sure exactly how secure the lines are. And of course, the construction is done by Chinese crews with Chinese material with Chinese and Pakistani corruption thrown in for good measure...

I'll concede that the picture isn't as rosy as I paint is for us - we'll shed blood and lots to kick the Chinese to the curb - but it isn't as forlorn as you folks portray it either. China thought to become the world hegemon and thought that the Americans will be stupid enough to let them take over the reins without a fight. Well, Americans have wised up, the neighborhood is fed up, Chinese economy is getting f***ed up and their dreams of hegemony are dried up. Poetic yes, but not so far removed from the truth for all that.

Singha wrote:India cannot do much if TSP allows PLAN to build a full on sanya type walled off base in gwader to dominate the sea of oman and sail up into the persian gulf? this is anyways coming.

the iranians dont mind the chinese their biggest customer of oil doing more to keep the americans at bay. they would offer a base if china paid something for it.

this will solve the logistics problem for the PLAN ships and subs apart from the smaller base in Djibouti in the horn of africa
pic of the highly guarded base https://www.google.com/maps/@11.5906234 ... a=!3m1!1e3

with two convenient bases their destroyer task forces and supply ships can prowl around and be the #2

they have arranged for large 'hotel ships' so that crews can be at sea and rotate for training into warships than stage out of china.

I agree that maritime lanes are not suitable for PLAN to quickly stage and sustain task forces from the ML china, but the picture changes when you consider gwader and all the food/POL the paks can provide there. this "west sea fleet" will look to play #2 to the huge murican 5th fleet in bahrain.
they can start with some training ships, survey ships, DDG/FFG types and gradually move to basing subs there.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 05 Jul 2019 20:05

APji thanks for wonderful post and analysis.

Arun.prabhu wrote:Straight line distance between Gwadar port and the Indian border is as little as 700km. That puts it within range of Shaurya, Nibhay, SCALP (which we've bought with the Rafale)... The Karakoram Highway, which is supposed to be Gwadar's lifeline in time of war, is closed for six months in a year and goes through the Khunjerb pass, which is at a height of 4700m above sea level. The distance between Mansehra, which is one of the towns on the highway and Srinagar is 150km - range of Prahaar missile. There are, I believe, 12 major bridges, 40 minor bridges, many tunnels, on the highway. If you'll look at a map, you'll note that the Pakistanis and the Chinese have taken every trouble to build the highway as far from the Indian border as possible, but they have get close to our border to cross the international border. The lay of the land dictates it. And where they are especially vulnerable to us is where exactly the places where the terrain the highway passes through is most difficult. Shutting down this lifeline in case of war is going to be hard, no argument there, but keeping it open and running will be a lot harder still.

Sir why do we need a missile route, assuming it doesnt happen in next couple of years, IAF with rambhas can take off from anywhere in India and can neutralize it ....wont missiles be too escalatory..that might give pakis the right to hit civilian bases. What are your thoughts on that?

Arun.prabhu wrote: In the event of war, if Pakistan allows Gwadar to be used to stage Chinese warships and further allows China to use those warships to conduct wartime operations, that's casus belli, and gives us all the right we need to pound the crap out of Gwadar as well as major vulnerable points on the highway.

That could be one reason why money came from US through IMF..my CT that US wants Pakis to remain in their camp while playing hte chinese

Arun.prabhu wrote: As for Djibouti in the horn of Africa, that's the fag end of a long supply line going running through our AO. China cannot hope to keep the base supplied in times of hot war, which means what they have on hand at the start of a war is what they'll have to fight with for the most part. Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea are Djibouti's neighbors.

One question I have is, can't they use their excess industrial capacity for stocking these bases for long? Do we expect wars to run longer than 1-2 months.

Arun.prabhu wrote: How much do you think it'd cost to bribe a Somali warlord to strike into Djibouti or for the Djiboutians themselves to start a civil war? Where there is a will there is a way and when your enemy is stupid enough to create little pockets of force in your AO, you let him go ahead especially when he doesn't even control his littorals much less the Indian Ocean.

That reminds me of mighty chinese army not supporting UN forces near by or something like that ..our kancha ji had that posts...my guess is that its going to be CIA's approach in the next decade ..similar to what they did during cold war with soviets. Which china having business interests..it would be easy to needle ...

Arun.prabhu wrote: String of Pearls looks good on paper, but it is assumes that there won't be widespread war. The pearls are each geographically dispersed, unable to lend timely support or aid to one another and will be defeated in detail by an enemy who has the force and the will. IN does. Which makes the whole string of pearls strategy moot from the get go.

As for one-belt-one-road, the less said about that marvel of political stupidity, the better. It is China's attempt to secure supply lines by bypassing Indian Ocean and the straits of Malacca. Given that shipping by sea is cheapest of all modes, and that the Pakistan-China One-Belt-One-Road is within sights of our guns, runs through mountainous terrain for most of the route, is closed for half a year, gwadar lies in Baluchistan... I'm not sure exactly how secure the lines are. And of course, the construction is done by Chinese crews with Chinese material with Chinese and Pakistani corruption thrown in for good measure...

My viewpoint on OBOR/CPEC is that chinese are looking for fertile lands to farm for mainland, soliders to fight India and US (read pakis) along with military bases. They've failed miserably so far..thats a case study in iteslf...

Arun.prabhu wrote: I'll concede that the picture isn't as rosy as I paint is for us - we'll shed blood and lots to kick the Chinese to the curb - but it isn't as forlorn as you folks portray it either. China thought to become the world hegemon and thought that the Americans will be stupid enough to let them take over the reins without a fight. Well, Americans have wised up, the neighborhood is fed up, Chinese economy is getting f***ed up and their dreams of hegemony are dried up. Poetic yes, but not so far removed from the truth for all that.

RamanaG had mentioned that xi bared the fangs too early..i think he moved in 15 years too early...but then he thought it would be hillarhi again...whom he can fool....

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 05 Jul 2019 20:57

ArjunPandit wrote:APji thanks for wonderful post and analysis.

Sir why do we need a missile route, assuming it doesnt happen in next couple of years, IAF with rambhas can take off from anywhere in India and can neutralize it ....wont missiles be too escalatory..that might give pakis the right to hit civilian bases. What are your thoughts on that?

Do be so kind as to drop the sir. I'm 37. It makes me feel old. Arun is good enough.

I used the missiles as an example because they are cost effective and leave our air assets free to fly other missions. In the event of war, if Pakistan are so stupid as to allow the use of Gwadar for war operations, Pakistan will likely cease to exist as a polity in a couple of weeks. China will not allow them to go nuclear, which realistically speaking are Pakistan's first and last line of defence, because that's not a war they want to fight as that'll get Uncle Sam very antsy and sans rogue elements getting their hands on nukes and using them on us, we'd have free reign.

That could be one reason why money came from US through IMF..my CT that US wants Pakis to remain in their camp while playing hte chinese

You assume correct. Pakistan are also trying to play the whore and have China and America as sugar daddies. That's been their game for the last forty or so years.

One question I have is, can't they use their excess industrial capacity for stocking these bases for long? Do we expect wars to run longer than 1-2 months.

Sure they are. And I'd be surprised if our intel folks aren't trying to find out exactly what they have and where they have it, if they don't already have that intel. The Balochs are our friends for the last decade for a reason.

Thing is there are too many things we can go after. The fuel dumps, the ships themselves, the crew quarters onshore, the ammo dumps, the warehouses for parts, the workshops... A few shake and bake strikes on the fuel dumps and the deployed ships would become very short legged and very dependent on successful and periodic resupply, which would be another weakness.

That reminds me of mighty chinese army not supporting UN forces near by or something like that ..our kancha ji had that posts...my guess is that its going to be CIA's approach in the next decade ..similar to what they did during cold war with soviets. Which china having business interests..it would be easy to needle ...

Reality is China are overextended, their fleet to fight to Americans isn't going to be ready for another two or three decades - without the CBGs, the Chinese fleet is so much sunk tonnage - and they are barely started on the blue navy spiel, without which they can't be the world's hegemon. Africa is going to get very bloody because that's the Chinese underbelly. They get a lot of their raw materials from Africa, the locals must now hate the overbearing, racist Han with a vengeance and the Chinese can't run because they'd lose face.

My viewpoint on OBOR/CPEC is that chinese are looking for fertile lands to farm for mainland, soliders to fight India and US (read pakis) along with military bases. They've failed miserably so far..thats a case study in iteslf...

As the old saw goes, never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake. Let them spend their nation's wealth on OBOR. It doesn't solve the basic problem of shape, namely, China's horrible and weak geographic position, as well as the problems of demographics, resource constraints, etc.

RamanaG had mentioned that xi bared the fangs too early..i think he moved in 15 years too early...but then he thought it would be hillarhi again...whom he can fool....

True.

Arun.prabhu · Post by **Arun.prabhu** » 05 Jul 2019 21:25

Oh I forgot. It isn’t that Xi thought Hillary was a fool. She is an eminently corruptible sociopath from all indications. Her husband’s 1996 campaign was funded with Chinese money. The Clinton foundation is perhaps the world’s biggest hawala organisation for bribe money. Look at the nations that donated big money to the Clinton foundation and you’ll find an astounding correlation. These are the same nations that have been decrying the Russian bogieman for the last three years and supplied intel/leads that started the whole trump/Russian collusion frame up.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Jul 2019 08:49

"US - China Trade War : Where is India ?" is the question.

The answer: nowhere, at least as of now.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Jul 2019 16:25

^^^ It is disappointing that we have not made much headway in attracting the firms flooding out of Cheen to avoid Trump's tariffs. The big winners here are Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia (rest of ASEAN), Mexico and even Bangladesh.

Strategy-wise, it is better to sit back and hope for a grinding fight. Rapid Chini capitulation doesn't help us as it will only give them space to expand on Amreeki standards and parts. It will make them more competitive against us even if they bowed out of competing directly with Amreeka.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 09 Jul 2019 06:02

India still wary of Huawei's 5G despite 'no back door' pledge

GOI seems to be divided on this issue with the security/intelligence apparatus against Chinese participation in the 5G trials and some DOT persons in favour.

The pledge of no back doors has yet to convince the Indian government. "There are suspicions about the assurances given by Huawei," a source in the prime minister's office told the Nikkei Asian Review. "The no back door agreement they are proposing is very doubtful. The government is in no hurry to make a decision on Huawei's entry."

and this idiot in the DOT is confused between Trump's decision on non 5G trade with Huawei and 5G network participation. Wonder if he is just stupid or been bought and paid for.

"The Trump administration's recent decision on Huawei tells us about the softer stand the administration is taking," said a source at the Department of Telecommunications. "This also indicates that India would not be facing much U.S. pressure regarding its decision on 5G."

chola · Post by **chola** » 09 Jul 2019 08:28

This is no longer just trade war but a tech war and the chinis are scared sh1tless.

https://www.hpcwire.com/2019/06/26/sugo ... ng-at-isc/

Chinese Company Sugon Placed on US ‘Entity List’ After Strong Showing at International Supercomputing Conference
By Tiffany Trader

June 26, 2019

After more than a decade of advancing its supercomputing prowess, operating the world’s most powerful supercomputer from June 2013 to June 2018, China is keeping mum on its latest HPC accomplishment.

According to multiple sources (with further confirmation yesterday from the South China Morning Post), Chinese vendor Sugon (known also as Dawning Information Industry Co.) was poised to stand up the new no. 1 supercomputer at the International Supercomputing Conference in Germany last week. But Sugon pulled back the entry despite attaining benchmarking results 2x higher than the U.S.-based Summit supercomputer, currently ranked no. 1 in the world.

With trade and tech war tensions heightened in advance of U.S. President Donald Trump’s and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s planned meeting at the G20 summit this month, sources told us that China did not wish to invite scrutiny and potentially face the same sanctions as Huawei. Nevertheless, on Friday (June 21) the day after ISC wrapped up, Sugon and four other Chinese organizations were placed on the U.S. “entity list” by the U.S. Commerce Department, which cited risks to American national security or foreign policy interests. The action effectively bars the named entities from accessing advanced U.S. computing technologies.

The marketing for chini tech would have been enormous if they took over the lead again but it seems marketing and reputation was not worth the pain from sanctions. Chinis keeping Sugon's machine off didn't help and they were sanctioned anyways. lol

Our role is to decide whether it is in our interest that Unkil crush Cheen's high tech sector just as it is taking the lead (HPCs, 5G, AI, etc.) or have Cheen survive to create a parallel eco-system and act accordingly. The first choice will entrench Amreeki dominance but weaken a rival to India. The second will enhance a rival but lead to a multipolar world in technology.