Managing Chinese Threat

[Singha]

some numbers from rajat pandit's article today in TOI: the place may not be Burtse but some other other location on southern rim of the depsang plain....

India has positioned some 50-60 soldiers from ladakh scouts and ITBP across from the PLA camp. they are 100-200m away. altitude is 16,300 feet.

there are 32 PLA troops, incl 3 officers.

our troops are holding "banner drills"

"we are not moving more soldiers to the exact location to avoid escalation" this source added.

the location is 18KM inside indian territory in the depsang bulge area.

[Singha]

there are pics of the burtse and onward to DBO and to karakoram pass here

http://himalayancamping.com/modules.php ... ge&pid=225
http://himalayancamping.com/modules.php ... ge&pid=226

[harbans]

Another aspect in the Chinese calculations will be next year elections. They must have figured that change at the center will be harder on these kind of issues for years to come. They have already surely compared the psychological profile of MMS and team and a NM and team at the helm. They might have figured this summer may just be the right time to carry any adventure of this kind forward.

[Virendra]

That would mean the Chinese believe that Congis days are numbered in Centre and next GoI would be tougher.
Sadly Chinese governments are all the same. If anything changes, it is the degree of proximity to PLA.

[shyamd]

Strain on Indo-Sino ties as troops face off

Uncertainty threatened high-level bilateral visits as Indian troops stayed locked eyeball-to-eyeball with 22 intruding Chinese soldiers in Ladakh on Tuesday and a flag meeting between the two sides flopped.


India, China hold second flag meet over Ladakh incursion
Senior officials on both sides swung into action to try and rescue visits by defence minister AK Antony to Beijing and Chinese premier Li Keqiang to India next month but sources warned that their job was getting tougher as the Chinese intrusion looked set to enter its ninth day.

Troops from the two sides are separated by just 300 metres in the cold desert battleground 17,000 feet above sea level.

“The visits have now gone back to the drawing board as the face-off has injected sourness into growing India-China ties,” said a senior official on the Indian side, adding it would be difficult for New Delhi to go ahead with the visits given the strength of public opinion against the Chinese.

The two sides had agreed to maintain high-level contacts for the rest of the year in late March, when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Brics summit in South Africa. After Premier Li's visit, external affairs minister Salman Khurshid and finally the PM were to go to Beijing.

Top government sources told HT that there was high-level contact led by national security adviser Shivshankar Menon to try and take down the temperature, given the importance of bilateral ties between the two Asian giants. The two sides plan a third flag meeting before the end of the week after the second meeting, which lasted five hours on Tuesday, produced no result.

“There have been exchanges at the highest levels today to defuse the crisis as both sides know a hardening of positions would be detrimental,” said a government official. (Exactly what was predicted yesterday with last step being MMS Xi direct phone call)

Chinese troops are more than 15 km inside Indian territory, and external affairs ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said the “face-to-face situation between the border personnel was due to differences on the alignment along the Line of Actual Control”.

He said the Chinese side had been asked to return to the status quo on the western border that prevailed before the incident.

Tensions have ratcheted up since the Chinese incursion on April 15.

Three days after the event, foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai summoned the Chinese envoy to Delhi, Wei Wei, to express India's displeasure. This was after a first flag meeting between senior commanders on both sides failed, and the Chinese side at the talks delivered another provocation by quoting from a letter written in 1959 by then Chinese premier Zhou En Lai to Jawaharlal Nehru asserting his country's territorial claims.

Defence ministry officials said on Tuesday there had been a violation of Indian airspace by a Chinese helicopter on April 15. The Chinese side claimed that the Indian Army had started patrolling with heavy vehicles and also accused India of air violations.

[RajeshA]

All this "lessening of tensions" diplomacy is hogshit! The Chinese have entered 18 kms into our territory, put up tent, and so they need to be pushed out forcefully. One does not negotiate when somebody breaks into one's house, one simply breaks the other's teeth and sends him packing!

UPA Govt. needs to understand the psychology of honor and deterrence!

[Pratyush]

They only understand the saffron terorists. PRC is the best friend for them.

[kittoo]

They only understand the saffron terorists. PRC is the best friend for them.

What are you saying?

[RoyG]

Another aspect in the Chinese calculations will be next year elections. They must have figured that change at the center will be harder on these kind of issues for years to come. They have already surely compared the psychological profile of MMS and team and a NM and team at the helm. They might have figured this summer may just be the right time to carry any adventure of this kind forward.

I agree. This could be a message for the new government at the center under Modi. They have struck when the UPA is at it's weakest. I had a feeling this was going to happen.

[Singha]

Article No.: 2157 Date: 16/06/2012
China Builds Fifth-generation Barracks in Xinjiang Military Area Command
Dr. Monika Chansoria
E-Mail-cedex@live.com
Proving a fillip to China’s preparedness for potential high-altitude warfare, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has completed construction of the fifth-generation barracks of the Simhana frontier defence company under the Xinjiang MilitaryArea Command (MAC). According to the Housing Office of the PLA’s Xinjiang MAC, the fifth-generation multifunctional barracks will be available in all frontier defence companies with an elevation of 3,000 meters and above, falling under the Xinjiang MAC.

Given the fact that most frontier defence companies and sentry posts are stationed on snow-capped mountainous terrain including plateaus at altitudes of over 3,000 meters, the fifth-generation barracks come in as a critical achievement at those heights. The PLA has been concentrating on preparing itself for any given conflict situation especially in the high-altitude areas. In this reference, incomplete domestic installations and lack of heat preservation in the older barracks posed difficulties vis-à-vis credible frontier defence.

The construction of the fifth-generation complex is reported to have cost China over 14 million Yuan. The decision to invest in constructing and renovating logistics facilities of high-altitude companies including at Shenxianwan, began way back in 2007 as per directives of the China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and the General Headquarters (Departments) of the PLA, the Lanzhou Military Area Command and the Xinjiang MAC. Moreover, the newly constructed and commissioned barracks of the Biedieli frontier defence company are equipped reportedly with “ten major systems” including direct-drinking water purification system, solar-powered and boiler bathing system, solar-powered and diesel engine generating system, boiler heating and a solar heating system. Besides, it has been reported by the PLA that all grassroots companies have been equipped with satellite televisions and availability of internet in nearly 90 percent of the organic battalions and companies.

The above being a latest manifestation of PLA’s battlefield support capability, promulgated earlier through a series of policies ever since China announced its 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). That field operations’ living support enhances and improves combat effectiveness is a given, it is very crucial to note that the PLA has already implemented the “oxygen-inhaling project” in PLA’s plateau troop units.

[Singha]

My spider sense was on the dot....

They probably have thousands of troop fully ready for 18000ft. We cannot out supply their logistics..so be prepared for a air war to attack their logistics is only way to level playing field. Kargil type not crossing lac wont work here.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... tude-tibet


BEIJING: The People's Liberation Army in China has come up with the first batch of ecological oxygen-enriched barracks for use by troops posted in the oxygen deficient mountain regions of Tibet across the Indian border. It means lesser dependence on oxygen cylinders and higher performance for soldiers, the PLA research team has reported.

This is one of the several recent innovations reported by Chinese defense establishment that include reduction in take-off time for ship-based helicopters, reorganizing the layout for multi-functional training ground in the slopes of Inner Mongolia and running digitalized medical services, according to the official media.

Oxygen enriched barracks built at a height of 4,500 meters at the Naqu Military Sub-Command in Tibet involved using plants to generate additional oxygen in a special activity room and barracks with floor space of 1,000 square meters and 3,000 square meters, respectively. Soldiers using these facilities during exercise were found to have 10% higher oxygen level in the blood as compared to the outdoors and relieved of the problem of plateau anoxia.

The harsh environment with 48% oxygen as compared to the hinterland has been a cause of worry for the PLA, which found a large number of soldiers suffering from altitude diseases as alopecia and nail dent. Ecological experts including botanists and altitude disease pathologists were brought in for an on-the-spot investigation in the largely unpopulated area. This is what resulted in the creation of barracks that use plants to generate additional oxygen, the official media said.

The official media recently touted the efforts of the military command in Inner Mongolia to rework the ground layout for shooting and hand-grenade training as a major achievement. The landscaping work involved taking advantage of natural land formations like slope, ridge and pit on the banks of Argun River at the China-Russia border to prepare four training facilities in a small area.

The Chinese navy managed to reduce the time it takes for a ship based helicopter to get out of the hanger and take off by four minutes early this week. This was done by combining and reorganizing several steps in the process launching helicopters during an exercise in the middle sea area of the Gulf of Aden close to the pirate infested Somalia coast on June 23.

"We arrange a multiple of subjects including low-altitude flight, ultra low-altitude flight, hovering, sliding and landing on the ship in a flight sortie to all-roundly improve the psychological quality and flight skill of the pilots under complicated meteorological conditions." Cui Ao, captain of the helicopter crew of the "Guangzhou" warship, was quoted in the official media as saying.

[Singha]

Ia saw these warning signs loud and clear hence the raising of new formations and eqpt last few yrs. but they have caught us in a time of transition...no mountain strike corps, no light tanks, no lch or rudra inducted for high alt gunship role and ofcourse very little artillery or mlrs or even pgms for iaf.

All the little and big mistakes made over the years tend to have a compounded effect when h-hour comes.

[RoyG]

So what next? Diplomatically, we seem all out of options. I think we are just going to sit there and the Chinese are going to dig in. The news will cover the next big story and POOF, all gone!

[member_23629]

well reports said the PLA team had moved into unoccupied huts built by indians earlier. so you are right.
the comms tower may be theirs if its heli portable...all their oil rig reef squatting kit has radar dome and comms tower.

What is this Khujli in the army of building structures and then vacating them so that enemy can occupy them? The same happened in Kargil too. And why is Indian borders being held so lightly with such a thin army presence on the ground?

[kittoo]

Now, Chinese choppers enter several hundred kilometres inside India

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 712917.cms?

As the intruding Chinese soldiers refuse to budge from their occupied position in Daulat Beg Oldi(DBO) sector in Ladakh, two Chinese military helicopters have violated Indian airspace at Chumar, several hundred kilometres southeast of Leh, adding to the prevailing tension. The Chinese choppers entered the Indian airspace on April 21 and hovered over the area for quite sometime and returned after dropping some food cans, cigarette packets and notes written in their local language, official sources said today.

More at link.

[RajeshA]

So we are seeing a full scale invasion now on the cards!

[Singha]

Interesting detail in that link about vehicles.....so it must be on edge of depsang plain to be driveable...or maybe the helis dropped some atv type vehicles
-----
The situation in the DBO sector, meanwhile, continued to remain tense with the PLA personnel, who have come with some dogs and vehicles, refusing to budge from the area.

[Singha]

That location is on border somewhere in se corner of leh, not deep inside india.

[Singha]

Best bet imo is full mobilization for a air campaign. We have more and better airbases in range. One last warning to be given followed by mig27 flattening that post and daring cheen to escalate at the price of us hammering their supply dumps in aksai chin.

Risks have to be taken...there is no way out of trap without some risk

[svinayak]

I remember reading a few years ago that the PRC made 33 attempts to take DBO airfield incl. during Kargil war.

PRC is already in the kashmir dispute and is also part of all Kashmir war

[Rishirishi]

I cant understand why the Chinese are making such moves? Just why are they doing this?

My speculation.

1
China is facing an economic slowdown and the political leadership fears revolt. Hence they are trying to play on nationalistic feelings to stay in power.

2
China wants to test Indian defence response.

3
Simple show of power. But here I feel to understand what they want to achieve by this.

4
China has been at odds with many of its neighbours (Japan, Phillipines, Vietnam, Taiwan etc). Can there be a pattern here?

5
It is internal politics, where the PLA is trying to create a justification for increase of defence spending. Their ultimate aim being to rival US power.


I have been in China several times, in a timespan of over 10 years. Here are some of the changes i have observed between 2000 and 2012.

1 People are better informed, dare to speak up and are well connected to the Internet. The chinese attempt to control the flow on the net has failed.

2
Chinese newspapers always like to talk about the "great future" that China has. My interpretation of the the term "great future" is military, economic and political hegemony. Note; they seldom speak of individual wealth, but lay emphasis on individual sacrifice for the collective good.

3
Chinese are not used to economic downturns. They have been on one "heck of an economic ride" the last 20 years. People live in the belief that if they work hard, reward will come. Any recession bears the extreme danger of revolt against the party. The party bosses are desperate to hold on to power.

4
The economic problems of China are huge. PSU sector is very large, not profitable and has to be restructured. The property market has a huge boble.

[RoyG]

So we are seeing a full scale invasion now on the cards!

What makes you say that? I don't think a full scale conflict at this stage will be beneficial for them.

[RoyG]

I cant understand why the Chinese are making such moves? Just why are they doing this?

My speculation.

1
China is facing an economic slowdown and the political leadership fears revolt. Hence they are trying to play on nationalistic feelings to stay in power.

2
China wants to test Indian defence response.

3
Simple show of power. But here I feel to understand what they want to achieve by this.

4
China has been at odds with many of its neighbours (Japan, Phillipines, Vietnam, Taiwan etc). Can there be a pattern here?

5
It is internal politics, where the PLA is trying to create a justification for increase of defence spending. Their ultimate aim being to rival US power.


I have been in China several times, in a timespan of over 10 years. Here are some of the changes i have observed between 2000 and 2012.

1 People are better informed, dare to speak up and are well connected to the Internet. The chinese attempt to control the flow on the net has failed.

2
Chinese newspapers always like to talk about the "great future" that China has. My interpretation of the the term "great future" is military, economic and political hegemony. Note; they seldom speak of individual wealth, but lay emphasis on individual sacrifice for the collective good.

3
Chinese are not used to economic downturns. They have been on one "heck of an economic ride" the last 20 years. People live in the belief that if they work hard, reward will come. Any recession bears the extreme danger of revolt against the party. The party bosses are desperate to hold on to power.

4
The economic problems of China are huge. PSU sector is very large, not profitable and has to be restructured. The property market has a huge boble.

I recall Shivji saying that China is being incredibly stupid by starting conflicts with all its neighbors. They cannot hope to compete with the US if they become embroiled in conflicts with its neighbors. They have no strategy.

[svinayak]

Strain on Indo-Sino ties as troops face off
Uncertainty threatened high-level bilateral visits as Indian troops stayed locked eyeball-to-eyeball with 22 intruding Chinese soldiers in Ladakh on Tuesday and a flag meeting between the two sides flopped.


India, China hold second flag meet over Ladakh incursion
Senior officials on both sides swung into action to try and rescue visits by defence minister AK Antony to Beijing and Chinese premier Li Keqiang to India next month but sources warned that their job was getting tougher as the Chinese intrusion looked set to enter its ninth day.

“The visits have now gone back to the drawing board as the face-off has injected sourness into growing India-China ties,” said a senior official on the Indian side, adding it would be difficult for New Delhi to go ahead with the visits given the strength of public opinion against the Chinese.

May be other powers may be interested in making sure that this official visit does not happen. Major super power may be involved

[harbans]

All these moves by China are based on one single premise: That India has internalized and cannot go back on it's acquiescence of Chinese Occupation of Tibet. Also that HH Dalai Lama has also acknowledged Chinese claims on Tibet. (IMHO HH has acknowledged that only under pressure from Chanakyan Indian mandarins like MKB who thought a gesture like that from HH himself would calm things on the borders). Towards that it is hightime India come clean. Honestly say that previous regimes had acknowledged it only so that Northern borders would remain calm and that Tibetan culture would not face erasure. None of the events as we see in the last few decades have been happening. So we will revisit our acknowledgement. We would not like the Han to be our neighbor. We would welcome as was the case historically Tibetan self rule. That statements will be the BIGGEST jhapad to the Chinese in the last 5 decades it can get. On top of that openly acknowledge HH Dalai Lama's Government in exile. Only agreement we have with HH is that when TIbet becomes free, and that maybe 40 years from now, India claims the Kailash Mansarover region. The NE part of the KM region can be linked with Aksai Chin and Ladhak/ Leh to form a State and the South Eastern parts of KM with Uttaranchal. Time has come to show the Han that he does not belong to the cultural mileau of the Tibetan plateau.

[shyamd]

NDTV Reporting Some Top generals now complaining that Lt Generals are being reshuffled not even a year into the role particularly in a crucial time. This was personally cleared by the top man Gen Bikram Singh. MoD to make final approval

[Sushupti]

[sanjaykumar]

Some time ago I posted that the differential in China/India power had maximised and the future would see a more balanced equilibrium. So no need for Librium (I know poor word play) China's growth has contracted-and that is only a start. The Chinese communist empire will follow its Soviet mentor into the grave. Tibet will be free. India and China will be best friends again when the no longer share a border.

If you visit Chinese temples or look at the classical period's artistic flowering, their religious beliefs, their culture (playwrights, numerals quadratics etc) and thus their indebtedness to India, it is impossible for Indians to hate Chinese.

[shyamd]

Army formulated their response options and have submitted to the NSA who heads the CSG. The china study group is handlin the entire situation. Sec of Def, Home, EA and PMO are involved in the group. Yes aggressive options are on the list. The best one will be selected by PM

[RajeshA]

What stops us from actually throwing a missile on their camp, and then claim that it was a missile test within our boundaries?

[krisna]

Army formulated their response options and have submitted to the NSA who heads the CSG. The china study group is handlin the entire situation. Sec of Def, Home, EA and PMO are involved in the group. Yes aggressive options are on the list. The best one will be selected by PM

That sums up all the options.

[kittoo]

Army formulated their response options and have submitted to the NSA who heads the CSG. The china study group is handlin the entire situation. Sec of Def, Home, EA and PMO are involved in the group. Yes aggressive options are on the list. The best one will be selected by PM

That sums up all the options.

Indeed. He will say 'theek hai' and thats it. Nothing will be done and we would have lost territory.

[harbans]

What stops us from actually throwing a missile on their camp, and then claim that it was a missile test within our boundaries?

Well they can throw scores into Ladhak, Leh, ArP and other Indian bases all along as say the same. It is VERY important to realize the Chinese will always have 'justification' as they don't recognize traditionally Indian 'boundaries' with Tibet and also at many places what the LAC is. And there is ONLY ONE reason for that 'justification': Our idiocy in recognizing the Chinese aggression of Tibet. The Han is and should not now or ever be our neighbor. I have always stressed through my years of BRF that the majority Indian selfview has to go beyond the Sampradayic narrow definitive which exults in exclusivity of the Buddhist etc. I find a whole lot of Indians in real life and in this forum too that exult and revel in that world view. I find many openly say that the Tibetan does not look like the Indian. Well news flash: A whole lot of NE Indians don't and they are very much Bharatiya, many more so than your narrow minded Samrpadayic or Nehruvian socialistic loyalties of exclusivity. The defense of Ladhak/ Leh, ArP, Sikkim, even Bhutan and Tibet must involve us as a nation more holistically. That lack of a holistic self view reflected in our proactive stiffling of HH and recognition of the Chinese occupation of Tibet is at the root of us fretting now. I am certain some will half read and pick a line from the above here and there and call me more Chinese than Chinese..There's a saying: "When you don't stand for something, then you will fall for anything". A spineless national leadership that does not stand for it's Civilizational core will fall and fail. And this is not just the Nehruvian secularist core here that i am talking about. I find it PUKE worthy i have not seen ONE main stream article, ONE article from the so called nationalistic parties, ONE leader of a nationalistic party asking in the wake of these issues that emerge year after year, why India does not revoke our original stance, not ONE asking to make KM a disputed region.

[Mahendra]

Theek hai

Deleted.

[RajeshA]

Mahendra ji,

I have similar feelings but I think we should take the criticism of the current Indian government in this matter to some other thread, perhaps "Indian Interests" Thread or so. This thread should focus on analysis, options and jingoism!

Just a suggestion!

[brihaspati]

harbans ji,
sampradayik exclusivity is wonderfully suited to shaking hands off - of the "dirt", and sweat needed otherwise to fight for and expand or defend what you already have. "Its someone else being bashed and raped - not me". Add to that the reasoning that everything in life has a monetary price and fight or flight must be calculated on the basis of the costs in monetary terms. Forget the fact that the very growth in monetary terms comes out of creation of an artificial need that was not there before.

Yes for Indians, Tibet should have been seen as part of "greater" India. If it is not "independent" it should become an autonomous associate of India. It can never be and should not be part of China.

Regarding why the Chinese are doing this now:

(1) Sometime ago I had written about a crisis phase likely to mature around 2017-19 phase internally for China. There are predictable contests for power now intensifying within China along

(a) regional versus anti-centre[Beijing]
(b) PLA generals versus party centre
(c) within PLA - neo-Maoists versus "centre-right"
(d) within party - new middle-class/entrepreneur versus party-dynasties [2nd-3rd gen of Long Marchers]
(e) those left out of party+PLA but part of the new middle class versus system/establishment

I cannot write more explicitly. One or more of these clashes are likely to converge into three parallel centres of seeking state power, from the 2017-2019 phase. One of the ways in which the Chinese state can buy time here - is to move against India in a way that protracts the Indo-Sino conflict.

(2) China moves against India, when it can assure itself that the West, especially USA will not open a second front against China, and Russia will play neutral.

(3) China moves against India, usually after any Indian international arms deal with some component of the west has gone sour for the "west".

(3) China moves against India when it wants to send out a signal to its "god", the west - especially UK+USA, that it is the strongest player on the southern perimetre of Asia and IOR, and that China is appealing like an aging prostitute that the western clientele should come to China to deal with. This is not primarily about India.

(4) The withdrawal from AFPAK means that China is now placing itself as the primary force to negotiate with - for "afters", with the west. It is staking its claim to North J&K.

China will not withdraw, or not effectively withdraw. The level to which it has taken this current situation - whether as according to "inner level" sources to GOI policymakers and intel - as a kind of fait accompli by PLA generals against the "party" wishes, or as is more likely as per "out of inner circle" people like me - a pre-planned and calculated move by the CMC - implies that the Chinese state cannot back out now.

It will place these "loss of face" arguments in formal chit chats with GOI big-hats. There will be a lot of efforts put in by GOI to explain away the ultimate presence or non-removal of Chinese boots from the spot.

China is simply consolidating its eventual takeover of the NA in preparation for AFPAK withdrawal. It sees this as both a vulnerability as well as opportunity to isolate CAR-India cross connections. Pakis will be part of this plan anyway.

[RajeshA]

I have always stressed through my years of BRF that the majority Indian selfview has to go beyond the Sampradayic narrow definitive which exults in exclusivity of the Buddhist etc. I find a whole lot of Indians in real life and in this forum too that exult and revel in that world view.

True, Sampradaya has a role to play, but one should be aware what granularity of our identity is being demanded for viewing a certain situation.

I find many openly say that the Tibetan does not look like the Indian. Well news flash: A whole lot of NE Indians don't and they are very much Bharatiya, many more so than your narrow minded Samrpadayic or Nehruvian socialistic loyalties of exclusivity. The defense of Ladhak/ Leh, ArP, Sikkim, even Bhutan and Tibet must involve us as a nation more holistically. That lack of a holistic self view reflected in our proactive stiffling of HH and recognition of the Chinese occupation of Tibet is at the root of us fretting now. I am certain some will half read and pick a line from the above here and there and call me more Chinese than Chinese..There's a saying: "When you don't stand for something, then you will fall for anything".

Historically Indians have not been strictly endogamous. The 'Out of India' Thread should have made clear that Indians have moved out and married into other people, brought them into the 'Arya' fold. The whole mixture we see in the Indian subcontinent is a result of our willingness to intermingle. Our kings have married princesses from far away lands, and our princesses have carried our culture to far away kingdoms.

Tibetans are Bharatiya, because their culture is Bharatiya.

A spineless national leadership that does not stand for it's Civilizational core will fall and fail. And this is not just the Nehruvian secularist core here that i am talking about. I find it PUKE worthy i have not seen ONE main stream article, ONE article from the so called nationalistic parties, ONE leader of a nationalistic party asking in the wake of these issues that emerge year after year, why India does not revoke our original stance, not ONE asking to make KM a disputed region.

I think our national leadership too should really forget about this big brother magnanimity for buying peace with a stubborn neighbor! That is not for any leadership to do - sell of our claims - neither a 'nationalist' nor a 'secular' one.

[brihaspati]

Actually - contrary to the claim that "internationalizing == leaking" is a way to pressurize the Chinese to "stop" or "withdraw", with no other country taking up any cudgel on behalf of India, "leaking" has now actually made it such a public issue that the Chinese will make it into a "loss of face" issue.

Whatever GOI had to do - bash up the PLA soldiers or given ultimatums or given concessions to land where not even a blade of grass grows - should have been done very very quietly, or on ambush mode.

[narmad]

Posting in Full
Please delete if Mods/Gurus deem so.

China's likely escalation option against India: Rapid Reaction Forces

April 23, 2013 at 18 : 57
Saurav Jha

Given that China has once again decided to 'sweeten' it's recent offer of a Panchsheel redux with a nice juicy intrusion into Indian Territory in the Daulat beg Oldie sector, I think it is time to see some of the options the Chinese military may pursue if the matter escalates.

Now there has been much alarmist talk in the Indian media about how the rapid infrastructure build-up in the two Chinese military regions (MRs) - Lanzhou and Chengdu - facing India will allow the Chinese to mass 'almost half a million troops on the border' over a 30 day period. However given doctrinal changes in the Chinese Army (CA) pursuant to the reforms in its force structure and pursuit of hi-tech weaponry, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese would be looking to fight an enlarged version of the 1962 war especially in light of India's counter build-up. On the other hand there is a possibility that the Chinese may choose to initiate a much more localized conflict perhaps somewhat covertly, looking to achieve specific objectives such as a heliborne assault on Tawang for example, by using elements of its rapid reaction forces (RRF) that have been developed in the last two decades. Even in the event of a multi-front all-out war, it is these units that will be used in the opening stages and as such constitute the vanguard of the CA for possible conflict with India.

The stated aim of the Chinese military today is to 'win local wars under the conditions of informationization'. This approach actually has its roots in Deng Xiaoping's assessments about the nature of future warfare made in a Central Military Commission (CMC) meeting in 1985 wherein he observed that there had been a fundamental change in the nature of competition itself in the global arena. As per this formulation rather than building preparedness to fight massive conflicts, nation states in the contemporary world instead look to maintain a techno-economic edge over rivals with the possibility of short yet decisive engagements forming the backdrop.

Accordingly China's so called 'fourth modernisation' which pertains to the military, emphasizes high technology equipped mobile forces for application on dynamic fronts.

Although the re-equipment process started in the eighties, it was in 1992, that the largest component of Chinese RRFs called "Resolving Emergency Mobile Combat Forces" (REMCF) was unveiled and the mandate for this force came directly from the CMC. REMCF designated units were assigned the role of border defence, subduing internal armed conflict, maintaining public order, and orchestrating disaster relief missions. The development of the REMCF concept followed a phased approach whereby in the first phase the traditional Group Army corps of every MR selected an infantry division to be designated as a REMCF unit for dealing with situations arising on any of China's borders. In the second phase of development implemented in 1994, there was greater internalization of the lessons learnt from the first Gulf War and a second batch of divisions trained for "quick fighting, quick resolution" of high intensity and hi-tech regional conflicts was revealed. Subsequent to the accretion of more divisions the consolidated strength of REMCF units is believed to have stabilized at around 300000 since the late nineties.

Now RRF type formations as defined by the Chinese are supposed to be capable of deployment to any part of China within a two week period. More realistically though, REMCF units of immediate relevance to India are those already based in the Lanzhou and Chengdu MRs. Indeed despite the asphalting and development of all key highways headed into Tibet, the fact remains that only the RRF units stationed in these two MRs can be used in operations against India within 3-5 days of having taken a decision to do so by the CMC.

In Chengdu MR, which has under its jurisdiction the Tibet Military District (MD), the highly mechanized 149th Rapid Reaction Motorized Division is the designated REMCF unit. This unit was used to suppress the 2008 riots in Lhasa which showed that although based in Leshan, Sichuan province, it could manoeuvre heavy equipment into Lhasa using the Qinghai-Tibet railway and the upgraded Sichuan-Tibet national highway with relative ease. As such, the 149th can possibly deploy its WZ-501 and WZ-534 armoured/ Infantry fighting vehicles (AFV/IFV) and WZ-551 armoured personnel carriers (APC) along with gun and missile armed derivatives of the WZ-551 for use against India in less than 48 hours.

Similarly the other REMCF unit that can be brought into play rather quickly is the 61st Plateau Rapid Reaction Motorized Division of No. 21 Group Army under Lanzhou MR which too can reach a point in Tibet within a rather compressed time-frame. This wherewithal to bring in two combined armed divisions to a mountainous frontier for a joint operation with the Chinese Air Force (CAF) at a very short notice is the really noteworthy result of the much talked about infrastructure development on the Tibetan plateau and a threat that has made the Indian military sit up and take notice.

As far as the quality of these troops is concerned, it seems that the Chinese brass want every soldier in REMCF units to undergo specialized training which includes activities such as swimming, skiing, and mountain climbing. Also infantry soldiers in these units are required to become proficient with every weapon system assigned to the company units within their REMCF formation consolidate 'three attacks and five defences' and conduct the 'three real trainings'. The 'three attacks' refer to assaults on helicopters, tanks, and airborne troops the 'Five defences' are indicative of the need to defend against chemical biological radiological and nuclear (CBRN) use, electronic countermeasures, and precision-guided weapon systems. The 'three real trainings' is a reference to deploying real troops, conducting real operations, and using live ammunition in exercises conducted in the assigned area of operations and in other theatres. Essentially REMCF units are expected to gain competency in combined arms warfare in a networked environment.

Interestingly there are also special forces components within these two MRs that are designated as RRFs in addition to the REMCF units described above. These Army Special Force (ASF) units are regiment sized and report to the CMC via MR headquarters. The two key missions of these units are direct action and special reconnaissance and they apparently use a variety of infiltration techniques in aid of such missions. Chinese ASF is noted for its use of powered parachutes and paragliders in mountainous areas. It is also worth mentioning that these SFs are specially trained for carrying out decapitating strikes against high value civilian and non-civilian targets in the adversary's rear. Additionally, they are trained and equipped to carry out long duration raids spanning four hours or more.

The equipment of the ASFs is in line with the kind of hardware that western units with similar roles operate. ASF operators carry cell phone sized global positioning system(GPS) locators which also, relay co-ordinates from China's own indigenous satellite based navigation system i.e. Beidou, voice video data headsets, hand launched UAVs, low level television sets, night vision googles etc and a variety of small arms including new assault rifles that use the new indigenously developed 5.8 mm ammunition.

The ASF unit of greatest concern to India is the Chengdu MR's colourfully named 'Falcons of the Southwest'. Some two decades ago this unit has received numerous citations for its air-assault and forward-reconnaissance skills and is trained to operate armoured vehicles as well as fly helicopters. Given its apparent capability in airborne insertion, surprise attacks and emergency evacuations, this unit would most likely be the weapon of choice in any hypothetical scenario that involves any Chinese attempt to seize strategic locations in Arunachal Pradesh such as Itanagar. The 'Falcons of the Southwest' are probably mirrored by the Lanzhou MR's 'Tigers of the Night' which could be used in similar operations against India in the Northern theatre.

Though not based in Chengdu or Lanzhou MR, the 15th Airborne corps of the CAF seems to have also enjoyed very high priority with respect to modernization in recent times. Consisting of three airborne divisions with 15000 troops each this is a RRF formation once again under direct command of the CMC. Based on the Russian VDV, this unit has been increasingly exercising in Tibet and while becoming more and more mechanized in the process. It has air-droppable armour such as ZBD-03 IFV, light trucks and jeep as well as integral artillery, air defence and anti-tank elements. However given strategic airlift constraints (chiefly due to the fact that the CAF has less than two dozen Il-76s and far fewer IL-78 refuellers) at the moment only one division of the 15th Airborne can be moved to Tibet at short notice.

Meanwhile the key air-mobility enabler of CA RRF units - the Army Aviation Unit (AAU) established in 1986 has seen steady accretion since its inception. Tasked with deploying helicopters and light aircraft to support ground forces the AAU has also been deeply involved in combined day and night exercises performing anti-armour, special forces insertion and electronic warfare operations. The AAU now has in its order of battle new attack helicopters such as the heavy WZ-10 and the much lighter WZ-11, over 200 Harbin Z-9s, 40 Changhe Z-8s and most significantly hundreds of Mi-8/17 stable medium lift helicopters. Indeed the Chinese decision to license produce Mi-17s is a very significant development and a key indicator of the priorities of the Chinese military.

The rising profile of RRFs within the Chinese military setup brings forth important issues for Indian defence planners. The Chinese military's turn towards precision firepower and mobile land forces is accompanied by a concomitant downsizing of the CA which actually makes the '30 divisions in a month' scenario look rather implausible and this has been sought of confirmed by the white paper they released recently.. Doctrine, equipment trends, basing and localization and logistical issues despite all the efforts put into cross MR mobility show that the CA is not really interested in another 1962 style engagement.

In fact the very ability to move two REMCF units to the Indian border rapidly is an achievement in itself and should not be underestimated. The CA judging by recent developments might be more inclined towards either vertical envelopment operations and/or infiltration by ASFs into Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh. It could all begin with the current micro-Kargil like intrusion that the CA has undertaken in Burtse sector.

The Chinese may be conceptualizing a limited strike at a time and place of their choosing using airpower, ASFs and one of the REMCFs with the fact that they also possess a not insignificant nuclear and conventional ballistic missile force deployed in Chengdu MR in the background. In such a construct it is really difficult to see how India can avoid building up mountain strike forces of its own. A defensive posture based on concentrated firepower and active manning along India's vast mountainous border with China is a strange doctrine given that the Chinese are least likely to attack along a broad front and in any case there could always be gaps that allow ASFs to slip in.

A much better proposition is to give a symmetric response in the form of a mountain strike corps (MSC) or two that can be airlifted into Tibet to seize territory just the way the Chinese possibly intend to in Arunachal Pradesh. On the defensive side of things, the setting up of Integrated Air Command and Control System nodes facing China must be expedited, since the best way to deter Chinese RRFs is to deny them the use of airspace. Ultimately a joint Army-Air force response by India with an active defence strategy is the best way forward to ensure that China desists from 'resolving emergency mobile combat' situations

[Mahendra]

If China attacks, I volunteer to pick up a bandook and fight them