Managing Chinese Threat

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Bade
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Bade »

TonyMontana wrote: So nuclear proliferation and terrorism is okay as long as the end-recipients are the bad guys.
Yes and Yes. Why can't the latter be directed only at the state apparatus in question when all else has failed and the end goal is for the good of all concerned, in this case both Indians and Chinese for peaceful co-existence.
Can we assume that India will be the moral and righeous leaders of Asia? Many people in history has said, "This time will be different. Once we have power, we're gonna be the good guys. You'll see." Things tend to workout different. Why is India so special? If you looks like China and walks like China...well...
Well, when others have yet to show the way as you put it, maybe India may be your only last choice. :)
Carl_T
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Carl_T »

RamaY wrote:
This is very short sighted view.

First forget Burma
Then forget Sri Lanka
Then forget Tibet
Then forget Pakistan
Then forget Bangladesh
Tomorrow forget Nepal, Bhutan, JK, NE, Bengal, TamilNadu...

If you go like this, one day you will lose your wife too before losing yourself... (apologies for the harsh words)

It is really nonsensical to think India can somehow protect its interests in Iran and Central-Asia (against whom??? The same USA and PRC I guess), but somehow lost its case in Tibet.

Pakistan couldn't punch us even in its dreams. Even then it caused immense loss to India and Indian public with its Khalistan, JK and Jihadi terror. I made some posts before on the overall economic costs amounting to >$100B. This would be more than enough to provide basic Food/Health-care/Education to entire Indian BPL population.

What is the point in discussing all these points if we cannot learn from one thread to another?
RamaY ji, the concept of "hurting the enemy in thousand cuts" works perfectly fine if your enemy is a pluralistic democracy. Sponsoring an insurgency will cause all sorts of rona-dhona in the populace. However do you think China is bound by any such "ethical concerns"? Surely you don't think Burqa Dutt is influential in China? :D

Now certainly China will suffer some damage, gain an annoyance, but how many real strategic gains do you envision? Just like Syria with the Brotherhood, China will bleed for a little bit and then liquidate the resistance, and we will go back to wearing "Free Tibet" tshirts. It will not be hard for them to depopulate Tibet.

As for the other nations you mentioned, are they under Chinese rule? There are concrete gains to be made in improving relations with places like Iran and CA to secure energy, shoring up border nations such as Bhutan and Nepal, in addition to counter-circling China by installing assets in Mongolia, Tajik and Japan. Piddling insurgencies in Tibet will not advance any position of ours.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

Atri wrote:
Those responses were based on the contemporary circumstances and aimed at preserving the interests of Indian way of life and its understanding in given space-time. There is no need to care for certificates of goodness and badness. In objective realpolitik, these are worthless anyways.
Bade wrote:
TonyMontana wrote: So nuclear proliferation and terrorism is okay as long as the end-recipients are the bad guys.
Yes and Yes.
I always thought India was somehow different. I get it now, it's all about realpolitik. But the thing is, people like myself and a lot of westerners always felt sympathy for India. We see India as a victim that's being bullied and pricked by an arrogant China. But from what you're saying. I'm starting to form the opinion that India wants to be like China, but unlike China, she's just failing at being a bully. If what you're saying is true, I hope BRFites wouldn't be so worked up next time China does some "pin-pricks" on the border. It's just realpolitiks and you're just not winning.

Maybe I'm naive. But I always thought of India as a stately country that suffers herself, but refuse to stoop to the level of China or the Islamists because it's the right thing to do.

I hope there is still some truth to my believes.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by csharma »

Chinese string of pearls could choke India

http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/sep/ ... -india.htm
In the competitive battle for influence that is bound to characterise power play in the sub-continent tomorrow, we need to be pre-eminent partners of nations in our neighborhood. Chinese forays in these countries will always be there but as long as we remain the more trusted and favoured partner, it may be possible to deny military advantage to Chinese. In addition to immediate neighbours, Thailand needs to be engaged because of its proximity to the Andamans. Certain critical Indian Ocean states like Maldives [ Images ], Mauritius and Seychelles have to be always firmly in focus for a strong relationship.

We also need to synergise with such powers as would be reluctant to witness a major Chinese surge in the Indian Ocean. Surely, the US and EU countries, Japan [ Images ] and even Australians, as also most of ASEAN would not be comfortable with it. The string of pearls, when viewed beyond the Indian context, is complemented by the Chinese anti-piracy force in the Gulf of Aden, and further supplemented by its growing economic clout in the African continent.

The opportunities for alliances, should the Chinese decide to flex their muscles in Indian Ocean, are plenty. As of now the issue needs to be a part of our dialogue with the other stake holders.

Along with our economic growth, our military prowess and diplomacy has to register matching strength. A regional power struggle between India and China, however muted be it, will be more and more evident as China pushes the envelope to be a greater global player. The sooner we are in a position to make any ingress into our areas and interests a cost-prohibitive exercise, the better is our future secured.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Bade »

TonyMontana wrote: I always thought India was somehow different. I get it now, it's all about realpolitik. But the thing is, people like myself and a lot of westerners always felt sympathy for India. We see India as a victim that's being bullied and pricked by an arrogant China. But from what you're saying. I'm starting to form the opinion that India wants to be like China, but unlike China, she's just failing at being a bully. If what you're saying is true, I hope BRFites wouldn't be so worked up next time China does some "pin-pricks" on the border. It's just realpolitiks and you're just not winning.

Maybe I'm naive. But I always thought of India as a stately country that suffers herself, but refuse to stoop to the level of China or the Islamists because it's the right thing to do.

I hope there is still some truth to my believes.
India never sought sympathy. I do not know what led you or other westerners to believe so. There are reasons for its inaction in the past and even to some extent in the present.
Why do you want us to suffer in perpetuity to support your belief systems as espoused here by you ? The right thing to do is to not surrender to any bully just to look good. Why even MK Gandhi from modern day India did not really practice that, what you have prescribed here. Are you confusing politics with religious beliefs and practices, contrary to what you said much earlier about keeping the two separate ?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

Bade wrote: Why do you want us to suffer in perpetuity to support your belief systems as espoused here by you ?
I never said that. All I'm saying is that there has to be better ways to contain China than for India to become a nuclear proliferator and a terror sponsor. I think what you and other posters are getting at is that might makes right. India should do anything and everything she can get away with to further her interests. Do you see how close that is to CPC thinking? By your standard, there is nothing wrong with what China is doing in Tibet. Just realpolitiks, no hard feelings. Do you see the cognitive dissonance here?

Bade wrote: Are you confusing politics with religious beliefs and practices, contrary to what you said much earlier about keeping the two separate ?
Maybe I am. That's why I come to BRF right? To fill that knowledge gap.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shiv »

TonyMontana wrote: Many people in history has said, "This time will be different. Once we have power, we're gonna be the good guys. You'll see." Things tend to workout different. Why is India so special? If you looks like China and walks like China...well...

No. There is no guarantee that India will be different if and when Indian power is sufficient to break down the current world order. But one thing is certain and that is India will do to China what China hoped Pakistan would do to India - i.e party pooping.

Party pooping is an exercise that gets more and more attractive and cheap as a country loses power. That is what makes Pakistan such an attractive partner to hold India in check. What India has done is to somehow squeeze past and wriggle free so that she is able to look around and see the games that have been played by China an the US. Both countries will pay for this in some way. As always the price that will be paid will be in areas where there is nothing that either country can do about it - just like the price India has paid for Chinese chicanery was in areas where India had very little choice or control.

A few tube-lights have come on in the US who are making some attempts to change alignments so that they benefit from the direction India chooses to take. China is showing some signs of recognizing what lies in store - which is a debilitating and needless competition in areas where development would be better served by cooperation rather than competition. But the ball is in China's court and the Chinese seem to be stuck in a time warp. Looking at how cold warriors in the US still have clout in US policy - I suspect there is a power struggle/ difference of opinion in China which is undecided about the way forward. China probably has a lot of Pakistan loyalists who still love that clap infested whore despite the fact that Pakistanis do not even allow their own gas pipe from Baluchistan to survive intact so the question of Pakistan protecting Chinese lifelines will be tenuous even without India paying saboteurs to make the godless Chicoms pious. With China and India walking around with a finger in each others butts, guess who benefits most? Neither China nor India. And Pakistanis strut around saying "Our bomb. Our aircraft (JF 17) etc" Apart from flattery from a whore - it is not clear to me how much China will gain from all this. An angry and hurt nuclear armed India and a failed nuclear armed Pakistan would probably make the Chinese happy for a while - but oil and supplies still have to come from the straits of Malacca or South Asia ports.

But China has to understand this and get past the anger and denial that they have made serious errors. There is a win win for Asia if China can get past her addiction for her failing prostitute Pakistan while she needles India. If not India will be as much of a pain in Chinese necks as China and Pakistan are on Indian necks. Territorial expansionist ambition is a dangerous game in an era of nation states and "putting pressure" on India from all sides only makes Indians react with hostility and set more resources aside just for war to ensure that the other side does not win, even if India loses. If in a decade or so Pakistan collapses to the extent that its only threat is nuclear weapons - India's entire military and industrial complex will be China centered. If Pakistan does not collapse, India will continue its game of making Pakistan spend more and more on defence while we "hold" China. That is why some people have said that China now has a "window" of a few years to start war with India after which things will get more difficult even for that.

But China has to decide whether starting war with India in the next 4-5 years is good in its overall scheme of things. If it is not good - then needling India with irritants is of even less long term benefit. Where is Sun Tzu when you need him most?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Bade »

By your standard, there is nothing wrong with what China is doing in Tibet. Just realpolitiks, no hard feelings. Do you see the cognitive dissonance here?
Hardly, the dissonance is in seeing a Buddhist ( as you claim to be) justifying the suppression of Tibetan rights.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by csharma »

As KS has written, the Chinese actions in Gilgit area are not entirely driven by their animosity to India. While needling India might be one of the desired outcomes for them, their game plan is bigger. They want to thwart US in west asia and the route through POK and Pakistan is key for them. Their underlying assumption is that US is a declining power and China has to displace them.

It does seem a little overstretched though at the moment but things might fall in place in say 20 years from now for them. It shows they are thinking big. Whether they will be successful or not is another matter.

India has to strengthen its military and make confident counter moves of its own in SE Asia, East Asia. India would be the second most power after the US in West Asia. That is also something India needs to keep building on.

The long supply lines through POK or through Burma can prove to be a disadvantage since India can them out since they are closer to India. Any forces stranded would be a sitting ducks. Also if India can make countermoves in SE Asia and East Asia through allies it has potential to open new theaters that will bog down the Chinese forces.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

Bade wrote:
By your standard, there is nothing wrong with what China is doing in Tibet. Just realpolitiks, no hard feelings. Do you see the cognitive dissonance here?
Hardly, the dissonance is in seeing a Buddhist ( as you claim to be) justifying the suppression of Tibetan rights.
First of all, I'm not justifying the suppression of Tibetans. I'm using it as negative example to show that I in fact don't support the suppresion of the Tibetans. Thus the qualifier, "By YOUR standard."

Secondly, I never said I was Buddhist. I said I come from a Buddhist back ground, which means I know what it's about. I'm in fact an atheist.

Now back to your cognitive dissonance...
Last edited by TonyMontana on 09 Sep 2010 10:11, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Tony I dont see you brining anything to the table except shoot others ideas down. How about you come back with you action plan? Till then alvida.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

TonyMontana wrote:
RajeshA wrote: India should see to it that Vietnam receives sufficient cooperation to make it as strong a military and economic power as possible. India should also proliferate nuclear weapons technology to Vietnamese. India can start by setting up nuclear plants in Vietnam and giving Vietnamese critical knowledge of nuclear tech.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, it is one of the most efficient generator of Jihadism, and Uighur Jihadism can be nurtured there with sufficient plausible deniability. First order of the day would however be retaking PoK and breaking up Pakistan.
RajeshA wrote: North Korea is perhaps the state under most pressure in the world, and would be grateful for any help. In fact Indian bonhomie with North Korea could piss off China even more than some gesture towards Taiwan. Maybe North Korea would be happy to get another friendly country to balance off Chinese influence over them.
RajeshA wrote:India's aim should be nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.
India along with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan should have both nuclear weapons and means to deliver them anywhwere in China.
RajeshA wrote: Vietnam is crucial because only Vietnam has sufficient tough boy image to act as a middleman for nuclear proliferation in the region, e.g. to Taiwan.
RajeshA wrote: A Taiwan armed to the teeth with missiles and nuclear weapons is the best guarantee of keeping PRC contained in its ambitions.
These are what I was refering to. Does the end justify the means? I wonder what the concensus is on BRF.
TonyMontana ji,
A structured discussion on this is still in the early stages. Give it some time before you look for some consensus. :)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

ramana wrote:Tony I dont see you brining anything to the table except shoot others ideas down. How about you come back with you action plan? Till then alvida.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning

By questioning your ideas, I'm in fact bring something to the table. :D

My plan, as stated in other threads, has always been India should focus on making Indians rich. When India is economically powerful, your problems will solve themselves. You don't solve it by becoming another "bad guy" like China.
RajeshA wrote: TonyMontana ji,
A structured discussion on this is still in the early stages. Give it some time before you look for some consensus. :)
Sure thing. It was a rhetorical question anyway.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Arjun »

TonyMontana wrote:We see India as a victim that's being bullied and pricked by an arrogant China. But from what you're saying. I'm starting to form the opinion that India wants to be like China, but unlike China, she's just failing at being a bully. If what you're saying is true, I hope BRFites wouldn't be so worked up next time China does some "pin-pricks" on the border.
Tony, if you still fail to appreciate the difference between being a bully and standing up to a bully, and there have been enough posts clarifying that- maybe you ought to get your education on this aspect someplace else. Are you seriously saying that China's 'pin-pricks' to India can be justified on the grounds that she is standing up to a bully?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:Tony I dont see you brining anything to the table except shoot others ideas down. How about you come back with you action plan? Till then alvida.
If I understand correctly, TonyMontana is a Chinese, and has volunteered to do some beta testing of our theories and thinking here.

In fact he is probably providing us in advance with propaganda material, that the CPC propagandists will be putting to use through various media channels and the Marxists in India.

I personally find Mr. TonyMontana's contributions here quite valuable. Far from making us doubt our strategies, he is helping us in fine-tuning them.

JMTs
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

Arjun wrote: Are you seriously saying that China's 'pin-pricks' to India can be justified on the grounds that she is standing up to a bully?
Nope. I'm saying China's 'pin-pricks' to India can be justified if India chose to become a nuclear proliferator and terror sponsor. Which I hope is never the case.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Bade »

TonyMontana wrote:I'm saying China's 'pin-pricks' to India can be justified if India chose to become a nuclear proliferator and terror sponsor.
Now you have re-arranged the time ordering of the arguments to suit your agenda. :rotfl: I sense time-casuality dissonance of event ordering to further cognitive dissonance.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

RajeshA wrote: If I understand correctly, TonyMontana is a Chinese, and has volunteered to do some beta testing of our theories and thinking here.
8) I am Chinese. Do I still get the Bonus Armour when the full game comes out?
RajeshA wrote: In fact he is probably providing us in advance with propaganda material, that the CPC propagandists will be putting to use through various media channels and the Marxists in India.
If India becomes a nuclear proliferator and a terror sponsor, the CCP don't need propagandists.
RajeshA wrote: I personally find Mr. TonyMontana's contributions here quite valuable. Far from making us doubt our strategies, he is helping us in fine-tuning them.
I have too many Indian friends to believe that Indians and Chinese couldn't work together. You should see some of the discussions we get up to. We had people coming over thinking we're actually fighting. :rotfl:
ramana
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Tony Montana, I submit you are doing nothing but trolling in this thread. I request you to stop. I had taken you at face value that you want to contribute here. Looks like your idea is to interrupt the flow of ideas.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Karan Dixit »

We can manage Chinese threats through common sense. It does not require rocket science:

1. Build strategic weapons (IRBMs, SLBMs and whole nine yard) to provide cover against Chinese nukes
2. Build conventional forces to counter theater level conflict with China without escalating it to nukes (thanks to MAD)
3. Build alliances with like minded countries, e.g., Japan, S Korea, USA, etc.

And so on ...
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Atri »

TonyMontana wrote:Maybe I'm naive. But I always thought of India as a stately country that suffers herself, but refuse to stoop to the level of China or the Islamists because it's the right thing to do.

I hope there is still some truth to my believes.
Aha.... I never knew we are searching for "brides" here. Kaaryeshu Daasi, Karaneshu Mantri, Bhojyeshu Maata, Roopeshu Lakshmi, Shayaneshu Rambha, Kshamayeshu Dharitri, Satkarma Naari, Kuladharma Patni, is that how India should be? :P The Savitri for drunkard husbands like PRC-USA who suffers so that her adulterous "husbands" keep on having fun? And hope that when her children will grow up, the old husbands will fall in place... How much more "filmy" can this be?

Too much to ask from one lady, I say.. Mohini and Durga are two forms of India. She will display anyone of them based on her interests. No one can ask her to be a Mohini while behaving like Mahishasura..
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Hari Seldon »

ramana wrote:Tony Montana, I submit you are doing nothing but trolling in this thread. I request you to stop. I had taken you at face value that you want to contribute here. Looks like your idea is to interrupt the flow of ideas.
+1, sir.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by TonyMontana »

Bade wrote: Now you have re-arranged the time ordering of the arguments to suit your agenda. :rotfl: I sense time-casuality dissonance of event ordering to further cognitive dissonance.
Dude, you're not getting what I'm saying... Don't worry about it. Let's move on.
ramana wrote:Tony Montana, I submit you are doing nothing but trolling in this thread. I request you to stop. I had taken you at face value that you want to contribute here. Looks like your idea is to interrupt the flow of ideas.
Well, you will be wrong. I was just replying to people that I'm in discussion with and following the flow of conversation. The word "trolling" get thrown around a lot these days on different forums, for different reasons. But I wouldn't get into that. Since you're a moderator, I will stop posting in fear of the banhammer. Am I to stop posting indefinately in this thread? Or just for now?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shyam »

TonyMontana wrote:Am I to stop posting indefinately in this thread forum?
Please do this favor.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by svinayak »

Bade wrote:
TonyMontana wrote: So nuclear proliferation and terrorism is okay as long as the end-recipients are the bad guys.
Yes and Yes.
:mrgreen: :rotfl:
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaT »

*Copying posts over from the US & PRC thread.*
China, then, has three possible future paths. In the first, it continues to grow at astronomical rates indefinitely. No country has ever done that, and China is not likely to be an exception. The extraordinary growth of the past thirty years has created huge imbalances and inefficiencies in China’s economy that will have to be corrected. At some point China will have to go through the kind of wrenching readjustment that the rest of Asia already has undergone.

A second possible path is the recentralization of China, where the conflicting interests that will emerge and compete following an economic slowdown are controlled by a strong central government that imposes order and restricts the regions’ room to maneuver. That scenario is more probable than the first, but the fact that the apparatus of the central government is filled with people whose own interests oppose centralization would make this difficult to pull off. The government can’t necessarily rely on its own people to enforce the rules. Nationalism is the only tool they have to hold things together.

A third possibility is that under the stress of an economic downturn, China fragments along traditional regional lines, while the central government weakens and becomes less powerful. Traditionally, this is a more plausible scenario in China—and one that will benefit the wealthier classes as well as foreign investors. It will leave China in the position it was in prior to Mao, with regional competition and perhaps even conflict and a central government struggling to maintain control. If we accept the fact that China’s economy will have to undergo a readjustment at some point, and that this will generate serious tension, as it would in any country, then this third outcome fits most closely with reality and with Chinese history.
Agree on the overarching point, China's economy will go through periods of retrenchment.. it's happened before('98-'99 Asian Flu, last year) and they have managed to control it by massive stimulus' but there's another path.. one very troubling that their leadership is likely to pursue. The issue is not China itself, it is the beast within it, the CPC which is calling the shots. And their priorities are the success of the CPC and the success of China, in that order.

So, in case a large enough economic shock hits the country they will do what is best for the CPC first.. which is retaining control of the country and population by any means possible. Nationalism is the easiest lever for them to pull, and the best way to do that is to present an external threat to focus the people on.. whether this is India/SK/Japan remains to be seen. They've been moving strategically against India for several decades now but India has a strategic N. deterrent which might cause them to pause, although they could gamble(and probably rightly) that as long as they didn't go N. India wouldn't either. So a glorious battle for them to re-claim Arunachal or to 'defend' an 'all weather' friend in Paki's could be sold, a few thousand or million dead while the party is kept in power is a small price for them. This is why India needs to step up Agni program to a faster speed and highly publicize dozens of missiles pointed at Beijing so they get a VERY CLEAR MESSAGE. Unfortunately this won't happen for a few years at the current pace(2015, I believe) so the very real possibility of Chinese attack exists between now and then.

India needs to get aggressive, and not just diplomatically. Diplomacy is 1 leg in the triumvirate, combined with intelligence and economic maneuvering that has to happen so that strategic military aims can be met.

Towards this end India needs to keep the target the CPC and not the Chinese state as a whole, like Arjuna keep the focus on the eye and let the arrow(s) fly. I was heartened today to see MS finally speak the plain truth.. however couched, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 508868.cms He is a great economic mind and PM but he's not the most strategically and militarily minded with regards to countering moves forcefully. That is what China respects, nothing else.. see the following, after getting smacked by the US a bit at ASEAN and shown the reality with a N. submarine they are all conciliatory again, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/08/world ... .html?_r=1. Remember they are like a snake, following Sun-Tzu, they will be silent and sneaky until they feel they are in position for a deadly blow.

So, what pain points can India develop to hamstring the CPC and speed its demise, or at the least shift the focus from our shores.

Some ideas:

1. As mentioned, speed Agni V development and let slip a few dozen are pointed at Beijing. MAD will be established they will have no real option but to come to the table or continue sub-N. tit-for-tat indefinitely.

2. Encourage closer defence partnerships with major ASEAN players, Japan, SoKo, Australia, Vietnam. Get into partnerships with each where greater advanced technology from them can be shared with India and we can provide manpower/common entry to global markets. See BrahMos program for blueprint.. Also, Pak-Fa/FGFA can be used as enticement and Tejas can be provided short term. This can help build our supply lines faster as well, as infrastructure would have a larger number of units to be amortized around.

3. Incite and magnify disagreements between Japan/SoKo and China using 'covert assets'.

4. Encourage and support separatist/personal freedom movements within China using 'covert assets'.

5. Highlight corruption and failures of CPC by feeding Indian/Global media with choice stories, especially those that reflect poorly in the west and in areas of increasing Chinese influence such as Africa/Latin America.

6. Tibet.. be smart about plausible deniability. The Chinese have done enough hiding behind there's that it must be done.

7. Food security is a huge issue for them.. add a duty on foodstuffs shipped to China.

8. Same as #7 for other raw materials.

9. Establish full relations with Taiwan(this is just an annoyance.. long-term the Taiwanese themselves are China oriented, but it's worth it just to give the CPC some heartburn.

Some of the more adventurously minded steps.. to show we have some teeth, these have risks associated with them but they establish push back from our side and show we are not to be pushed around.

A. Encourage the monarchy of Nepal to accede to India, or failing that.. should a civil war present itself due to political gridlock.. send 100K peacekeepers there and ensure a India friendly government is in place. China is baldly and badly playing a dangerous game here and must be countered forcefully.

B. At next terrorist incitement from Pakis, take Giligit-Baltistan/Northern Areas from Pak. Ensure that it has no common border remaining between them.

C. Enter into a 'nuclear support' agreement with SoKo/Vietnam where India would be obligated to respond should they be attacked by a nuclear weapon as long as they remain non-nuclear. As an aside, no.. 'giving' N. weapons to any country is not an option.. if done then it will cause huge problems internationally vis-a-vis US, EU, etc. Would not be a smart move.


I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaT »

*Copying posts over from old US & PRC thread.*
RajeshA wrote: One need not give directly. Basically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all in a position to build nuclear weapons. They have the technology more or less. The only country which should have nuclear weapons, but does not, is Vietnam. That is the only country India actually needs to provide the necessary technology too.

India is already out of the nuclear dog-house. We can have civilian nuclear cooperation with Vietnam. Ultimately Vietnam is also the only country, which could do some nuclear testing for India.

As far as protests from US and EU are concerned, they can all go take a hike. Their influence has downgraded a bit.
This is not a smart idea.. already we have seen in the past 10 years what happens when advanced technologies are not available, we would re-visit the same. Also, agreements are worth the paper they are written on.. and if we piss of US in this after they carved space for us then they will use one of the many provisions against non-proliferation in the agreement to toss us out, guaranteed.

Defence pacts are better long-run anyway.. notice how Nato members are always attentive to US concerns? Imagine if a must-defend pact was signed with Japan with regards to Nuclear attack.. there would be huge inflows of Japanese money and technology. Also, one of the things the Japanese will need over the next 20 years is workers.. where do we want them to go.. Us or PRC?
RajeshA wrote:
RamaT wrote:I'm sure there are others with better ideas.. perhaps there should be a 'countering China' thread as this one has gotten sidetracked. It would be a good place to hash out the nuances of each strategy and the best way to approach them?
Something like:"Managing China's Rise" :D
I think this thread is okay for discussions on countering China.
I looked, your post sounded like there was such a thread already created.. didn't see it in first two pages. We can keep it here but then we should probably rename it as the last 2 pages have had very little to do with the US & PRC relationship. 'Managing China's Rise' works for me.. will you create it? Thanks.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by svinayak »

RamaT, Very detailed post and good effort. Thanks for thinking thru it.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaT »

Acharya wrote:RamaT, Very detailed post and good effort. Thanks for thinking thru it.
Thanks Acharya Ji.. still getting my feet under me, appreciate it.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Philip »

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Tibetan-g ... 97536.aspx

Tibetan government in exile fears Chinese infiltrations
Gaurav Bisht, Hindustan Times

Xcpt:
While Tibet's exiled spiritual the Dalai Lama's security remains the centre of concern, the Tibetan-government-in-exile fears "infiltration" of Chinese undercover agents in the hill town that has been nerve centre of Tibetan movement. Fearing China could unleash its band of army trained undercover agents in the town, the security wing of Tibetan - government- in- exile cautioned the Indian security and intelligence agencies. Security department in its communication to Crime Investigation Department of state police anticipated Chinese infiltration in Tibetan settlements clustered across India in the garb of monks.

"Necessary steps are being taken in wake of anticipation of Tibetan administration Senior Superintendent of Police, Dr Atul Fulzele confirmed to Hindustan Times, while adding that effective steps have been taken to upgrade security of Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama. Police has asked Ministry of External Affairs to provide funds for installing chemical detector at Dalai Lama's palace. Dalai Lama's has three tier security manned by Himachal Police. Internal security is looked after close protection group of Tibetans. More than 150 men are deployed for round the clock security of Dalai Lama's palace.

Tibetan government fears come two months after a Chinese woman was arrested in Mcleodganj for staying without valid travel document. Chai Sha Hung, convicted for violating foreigners act, was deported back to her home town last month, the police suspected her of being a spy but claims could not be established.

Sources in Tibetan government-in-exile maintains Chinese intelligence agencies was keeping track about the activities of Tibetan government and Non Government Organization that are at fore front of campaign to secure freedom for China administered Tibet. "Chinese government has become more wary of the Tibetans after protest scattered across Tibet ahead of Beijing Olympics" felt, senior official of Tibetan security. China had blamed Dalai Lama and his "clique" for orchestrating protest in Tibet that turned violent killing more than 150 people. On being tipped by intelligence agencie, local police arrested a Chinese man in 2008. Intelligence gathering confirmed that arrested Chinese man Liu Xia had served Peoples Liberation Army. Information gathered by Indian intelligence revealed that Liu had visited Dharamsala twice before protest spread in Tibet.

What came to the surprise of Intelligence agencies was Liu mobile phone details which confirmed that he was in touch with high ranking military official in Lhasa. Xia has reportedly revealed that he had come by road from Lhasa, and later reached Delhi after traveling through Nepal illegally. In the wake of renewed qualms of Tibetan government, local police has stepped up vigil on Tibetan escapees, although their numbers have decreased drastically ever since China tightened security on its borders. According to Tibetan security agencies on and average 2000- 3000 Tibetans crossed into India from Nepal but this year only 200 have arrived in Dharamsala so far.

"We have sent an advisory to all the Tibetan welfare officer asking them to educate Tibetans about the possible infiltration of Chinese monks " said a Tibetan security official requesting anonymity. Police have advised Dalai Lama to maintain a particular distance while meeting the new entrants at his palace. The Dalai Lama routinely meets the Tibetan exiles in his palace. Tibetans government has warned the exiles to remain cautious about the activities being undertaken by followers of Dorje Shugden. Dalai Lama had banned worship of Dorje Shugden. The Dalai Lama identifies Dorje Shugden as a "spirit", and claims that tradition of propitiation associated with Shugden elevates this spirit to being equal or superior to the Buddha. He states that encouraging the worship of Dorje Shugden could contribute to reducing Tibetan Buddhism to a form of superstitious spirit worship. Tibetans exiles say that China was using Shugdens for prpoganda against Dalai Lama.
PS:If the PRC is able to eliminate several key figures in the Tibetan Govt. in exile,monks or others in the administration,it would be a greivous setback for HH the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan diiaspora.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

TonyMontana ji,
This is a general response, and you need not respond to it, as per the wishes of the moderator.
TonyMontana wrote:I'm not saying India shouldn't do these things because of her history. I'm saying if India does these things she will be no better then China. And if India is just another hegemony in Asia, then what is wrong with the things China is doing to India? You're saying to beat the bully, India have to become the bully. Is that what you want India to be? To replace China? To become another China?
"Moral high ground" is a powerful tool. It marks out the world in terms of good guys and bad guys. India right now is one of the good guys. She has friends and support in the world. But if she becomes another Bully, she will be treated as such.
Hegemony is all about denying others breathing space; occupying the lands of other people; flooding others lands with own people, despite their protests; using strong-arm tactics to forcing others to submit to your will. Even as India resists China, India will not change our policy of peaceful coexistence with other countries. India's resistance would be directed at only China, and to some extent at those who do its bidding, not to the rest of countries

India will not act like China, because
  • 1) India did not start the rivalry (chronology is important here)
    2) India's goals are different from China's
    2) India depends much more on soft power to spread Indian influence, rather than occupation
TonyMontana wrote:So nuclear proliferation and terrorism is okay as long as the end-recipients are the bad guys.

As for the bolded part. Is the world going to take your word for it? Assumes that India does what this thread suggests and succeeds. India is now a nuclear proliferator, sponsor of terrorism, and a military and economic power unrivaled in Asia. Can we assume that India will be the moral and righeous leaders of Asia? Many people in history has said, "This time will be different. Once we have power, we're gonna be the good guys. You'll see." Things tend to workout different. Why is India so special? If you looks like China and walks like China...well...
  • Nobody is claiming here that India's aim is to be the unrivaled power in Asia. India expects to share space with other nations in Asia and beyond.
  • If at all, India would be proliferating to, let's say, Vietnam, in which case India would be proliferating to a country which a status-quoist nation, lays no claims on Chinese land, which has been attacked by China before (1979), and which will use its strategic arsenal for dissuading China from intimidating and bullying it. China on the other hand has proliferated to countries like Pakistan, which is a revisionist power, lays claim on Indian land, which has a history of attacking India, and which has used its nuclear arsenal as a cover to launch conventional and terrorist attacks on India. Chinese proliferation is offensive in nature while Indian proliferation would be defensive.
  • As far as terrorism is concerned, China has helped Pakistan protect its terrorism assets. Chinese behavior at the U.N. w.r.t. to deeming Jamaat-ud Dawa a terrorist organisation was an open indicator. Furthermore China has fomented secessionist groups in India in the North East and Maoists and provided them with safe haven and weapons, etc. India on the other hand is willing to support only the just demands of Tibetan and Uighurs for independence, for these people have had strong independent identities with little to do with the Han Chinese and their lands are occupied by China. There is no comparison between the two.
  • The concept of "once we have power ..." does not hold, because India does not aspire to become a hegemon and push others around. We do not want to be pushed around by others either.
China has introduced bullying, occupation, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, proxy warfare, etc. as strategic weapons in their dealing with other countries. Others have a right to use similar weaponry. If the Chinese come to fight with Indians carrying a sword, then India is not bound to defend itself only with a cucumber because others plea to India's culture of vegetarianism. India will also unsheathe its sword.
Last edited by RajeshA on 09 Sep 2010 14:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Venkarl »

TonyMontana wrote: If India becomes a nuclear proliferator and a terror sponsor, the CCP don't need propagandists.
Dear Tony Montana{sorry I don't know your Chinese name}......I love the way you twist and wrist around the words to cover up your jealousy....anyways...your CCP doesn't need India and her aspirations for its propaganda....they are propaGAANDUsts by default........

check my recent post on PRC thread....we may not recognize Taiwan...but our engagement with them is on a swing already.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

ONE INDIA & ONE CHINA by B. Raman: Raman's Strategic Analysis Blog
16. We are lagging behind China in all these fields. Neutralising the advantages which China has acquired for itself should be the main objective of our future policies. Expediting the completion of our infrastructure projects in the border areas and adding to our China-specific military strengths in a time-bound manner should be an immediate objective of our policy-makers.


17.Re-fashioning our economic relations with China in order to rid them of elements which are to the exclusive advantage of China should receive equal priority. There is a need for a re-think on our Tibet-related policies without reversing our recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China. We have to be more assertive in pursuing an One India policy as a quid pro quo for our accepting the One China policy.


18. India should do everything possible to avoid a confrontational situation with China, but should be prepared for it if China seeks to create a confrontational situation at a time of its choosing. We should pay more attention to the China-specific dimensions of our strategic relations with the US, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Rise of China prods India-South Korea ties by Harsh V. Pant: Japan Times
As India's tensions with China have increased in the past few years as Beijing aggressively asserts its territorial claims vis-a-vis India, South Korea, too, is re-evaluating its ties with China. In recent years, China has had no better friend than South Korea in the region. {Credit goes where credit is due - Dragon puts on great lipstick} A cultural admirer and as China's largest trading partner in the region, South Korea had hoped that Beijing would help stabilize the situation on the peninsula.

Seoul, however, stands disillusioned with Beijing's shielding of North Korea from the global outrage over the Cheonan incident in March — when North torpedoed a 88-meter-long South Korean corvette, killing 46 South Korean sailors {Finally dragon's teeth became visible}. Rather than berating Pyongyang, China watered down the presidential statement from the U.N. Security Council, condemning the attack, per se, but without identifying North Korea as the culprit. As a result, no punishment has been meted out to North Korea for its brinkmanship.

New Delhi and Seoul need to carefully assess the evolving strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific region and give a push to their political ties so that a mutual beneficial partnership can evolve between the two sides.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaT »

The message is percolating up.. let us hope the ones in power understand and show some backbone. CPC does not respect anything except pain-points, lets give them a boatload!

http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/201 ... e-problem/
So how does he recommend the Indian government respond to China, including that controversial nuclear reactor sale?

He said: ‘The gifting of reactors needs to be followed on the Indian side by an immediate upgrading of ties with Taiwan (by permitting higher-level official interaction) as well as activation of the India-Vietnam nuclear agreement. Hanoi needs to be helped by India in its path to nuclear progress, the way China has assisted Islamabad.’
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Changing equations by Ravi Neelakantan: Deccan Herald
The ‘Wall Street Journal’ recently carried a news item conveying that the US and Vietnam are likely to reach an agreement later this year on bilateral nuclear cooperation. The item also emphasised that as an exception, the proposed agreement features a possibility for Vietnam to pursue enrichment of uranium on Vietnam’s soil.

The fact that this development emerges within a year of a similar agreement signed with the UAE and within a couple years of what had emerged between India and the US, is a truly interesting development.

The India-US 123 Agreement was projected by us as enhancing our ‘energy security,’ while the US projection was of its efforts to include India in the non-proliferation framework. The resultant global acceptance of India’s high technology status in nuclear matters has been undoubtedly a game changer.

Coincidentally, both India and the USA signed agreements with Vietnam in 2001 to extend assistance for peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Though our contribution has been modest comprising training, some measuring equipment, supply of Cobalt pencils, etc, the recently reported development is an indication of something much larger.
China shaken

The above, when seen in the context of the reported presence of abundant oil below the South China Sea (or the East Sea, as the Vietnamese prefer to call it), and China’s own efforts to deal with the problem of demarcation of maritime boundaries, through individual talks with the littoral states, the future promises to be full of opportunities to avoid or resolve tensions. Reportedly, the planned US-Vietnam bilateral deal has ‘shaken’ China. If nothing else, it certainly lends the South China Sea dispute a new character, to
start with.

The ongoing US-Vietnam naval exercises in the South China Sea may well compel a reappraisal of the prevailing security framework in the wider Asia-Pacific region. The Singapore foreign minister had recently clarified in Hanoi that both Russia and the USA may become members of the East Asia Summit in a couple of years
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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The US-China contest for power by Sushil Sethi: Taipei Times
When the US and South Korea subsequently conducted joint military exercises to emphasize their preparedness and resolve, Beijing was not impressed. It sought to bar the US from conducting joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, because it constituted a threat to China’s security. (The South China Sea is already being billed as China’s territorial lake.)

Apart from warning the US, China was also implicitly cautioning Seoul against inviting foreign vessels into the Yellow Sea.

Another message is that the Korean Peninsula is China’s security zone and the US involvement could trigger a Chinese response, as in the Korean War of the early 1950s.

Indeed, the Xinhua news agency report of Kim’s visit not so subtly pointed out the link, with the North Korean leader having said: “Through this visit, the [North Korean] side had yet another in-depth experience of the preciousness … of the friendship created by older generations of revolutionaries of both countries.”

The spirit of the Korean War was thus invoked when China halted the US military advance toward the Yalu River.

Against this backdrop of such fraternal ties going back many years, the Chinese press ran a flurry of editorials defending a stable relationship with North Korea.

What it means is that China is veering toward more assured support for North Korea and the Kim dynasty.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaY »

Carl_T wrote:
Now certainly China will suffer some damage, gain an annoyance, but how many real strategic gains do you envision? Just like Syria with the Brotherhood, China will bleed for a little bit and then liquidate the resistance, and we will go back to wearing "Free Tibet" tshirts. It will not be hard for them to depopulate Tibet.
Carl_T garu!

The fundamental flaw in your logic is that only "pluralistic democracies" are vulnerable to insurgencies. The history proved again and again that it is the "dictatorships" that are very wary of these insurgencies/disturbances and apply disproportional military strategies. Look around in our neighborhood and you will understand and what I am saying. And it is these very dictatorships that collapse as soon as a small crack is exposed.

If PRC is as homogeneous and strong/brutal as you claim why is still struggling with Taiwan, Mangolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Myanmar and so on?

This is nothing but myth making and living in that cocoon.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shiv »

If you look at the Chicom guvrmand - you find that apart from great success economically and in terms of human development they have a few problems on their hands. I will not bother listing the economic problems that people forecast from time to time.

Population still remains a problem and related to that is the vast size of the country and disparity, and harsh topography of 2/3rds of the country with most people living in the far East. The economy needs to keep chugging fast to bring overall development all over. Working against this was the global meltdown, and some internal Chinese factors. Among the latter are pollution, desertification and possible water scarcity in some parts. Other problems are the rigid central authority of the communist party that ensures toadyism and corruption.

I think the Chinese have realised (as India is beginning to see) that internal development of the country itself creates jobs and a market that is world class in size. There is enough infrastructure work to keep a population busy for decades. This of course was an advantage that the US enjoyed in an earlier era. A huge internal market and abundant resources helped develop the country. Export was less of an issue when there was a huge internal market.

The "old China" inherited from Mao was a proletariat China of village bumpkin psyche that sought "punishment" of nations as readily as punishment and reform of individuals was done in China. This China was paranoid and suspicious but decided to emulate the Western way - not just in terms of economy, but in terms of "balancing" one power with another by dumping arms into the weaker power. This tactic IMO served Europe well for centuries and it served the US with mixed success. It is probably astounding to anyone that both China and the US used the same "weak proxy" Pakistan against India and have all but failed.

But the the US did succeed in using Pakistan against the Soviets. t is not at all clear to me what China has gained by supporting Pakistan. They still have no highway, no pipeline, no guaranteed security. And I cannot understand what China gained by supporting North Korea. Both countries got nukes from China. Both countries are highly militarized. Both countries depend on aid. And both are incapable of being a coherent servant of China. So what the fug has China achieved with its proxies?

All that China has done is to earn the suspicion of India and South Korea in addition to Japan and the US. It's all very well to speak of superpower and global power, but no power, not even the US, or even Britain in its heyday - arguably a bigger superpower than the US , has managed to antagonize everyone.

Is this Sun Tzu? It is merely a paranoid village bumpkin brain with new money and power with left over wisdom from the old colonial days using obsolete methods to antagonise intimidate and punish. It is a pain. But not clever.

For the immediate future I think we have to figure out what the heck China thinks it is going to achieve with its whore Pakistan. An aligning with Indian interests would be far more productive with China. if India has no objection to Chinese trade routes - even the US can't do too much. But if India objects - it can cause China serious takleef.

And "surround India with a string of pearls"? Give me a break. The idea sounds good - but the choke points are all within reach of Indian forces. OK - India can't sit idle but expecting India to sit idle while China needles India is nowhere near Sun Tzu whose name is thrown like a Brahmos missile at anyone who dares to ask what the fug China is trying to do.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat

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Boat Crash Fuels Beijing-Tokyo Row by Yoree Koh: Wall Street Journal
TOKYO—A collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard near a chain of disputed islands sparked a diplomatic spat between the two countries, marking the latest in a series of maritime tiffs stoking territorial tension among China and its neighbors.

The Chinese boat crashed into two Japanese patrol boats after it failed to heed authorities' warnings to leave Japanese waters north of the islands in the East China Sea, according to reports from the Japanese foreign ministry.

Both countries claim authority over the uninhabited lands, known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands and in China as Diaoyu. The tiny archipelago is located between Taiwan and Okinawa in southern Japan, and is under Japanese control, though China and Taiwan also claim possession of the territory.

Japan arrested the captain of the Chinese fishing boat early Wednesday, despite demands from Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Song Tao that Japan stop "illegal interception" of Chinese boats, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.
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