Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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K Mehta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

@ritesh all good work done by baki government.
This is an inflexion point yes, but only for those who can inflex. Right now Indian government is not going to influence the state of bakinomoney, so this will return to status quo.
All this is happening due to 6th review of IMF for releasing 7th tranche of bheekh. Moment this is done, FE will be used to buy oil. Till then bakistan will enjoy true Islamic environment. No gas power etc.
Its a catch 22 situation for them and we are not going to do anything to nudge it one way or the other.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Xposting from stfup thread
abhijitm wrote:Large swathes of Pakistan left without power after national transmission lines trip
Many parts of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan were left without power late on Saturday after the transmission line from the Guddu power plant tripped {blown} and caused a cascading effect throughout the national grid, Express News reported.
According to initial details, Guddu’s 220KV power line to Quetta tripped which affected the 500KV power line from the national grid and forced Bin Qasim and the Jamshoro thermal power stations to go offline.
The breakdown left many parts of Sindh, including parts of Karachi without power. K-Electric, which supplies 650 mega watts of power to Karachi, explained that a trip of the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) line was having a cascading effect and had de-synced their supply.
Due to the power outage, the Dhabeji pumping station stopped functioning and supply of water to Karachi was interrupted.
There were reports of some grid stations in Punjab being affected where three grid stations of NTDC tripped affecting Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan and Gujranwala.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Xposting from stfup thread
ArmenT wrote:The Pakistanis are caught in a vicious cycle with multiple loops:

1. Water shortage --> poor crops, hydro electric power shortage etc.
2. Electricity shortage --> Cannot produce or deliver goods for export in timely manner
3. Cannot produce or deliver goods in timely manner --> Lose foreign business deals and customers, can't get enough foreign exchange
4. Can't get enough foreign exchange --> Can't pay for furnace oil
5. Can't pay for furnace oil --> Other oil and petrol products are blocked from import as well
6. Lack of petrol and oil --> Can't drive vehicles (loop back to step 3), can't produce electricity (loop back to step 2), can't pump water (loop back to step 1).

These multiple loop backs have an effect of amplifying each other and making the situation worse. For instance, in step 6, their food distribution will also be affected and probably ability to grow food (without electricity, pumping water to fields is going to get a lot harder). Showers and sanitation are going to take a back seat as well.

So, pretty soon, Pakistanis are literally going to be sitting in the dark, cold, starving and stinking to high heaven.
chetak wrote: They are not multiple loops, sirji. :)

They are cascading loops. Much more dangerous.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Image
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

One of the tactically brilliant idea used by bakistan to overcome the power shortage is increased power generation by hydroelectric plants. This is being done by increased outflow of water, this will lead to reduced storage, which will later be an issue.
But who cares about later down the line.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

http://nation.com.pk/business/28-Jan-20 ... an-in-2015
OSAMABAD Pakistan would receive $3.2 billion from World Bank and Asian Development Bank during the year 2015.The World Bank and ADB had a projected $1.5 billion and $1.68 billion assistance respectively earmarked for Pakistan for the year 2015. This was revealed in a meeting of Economic Affairs Division (EAD) chaired by Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar. The meeting reviewed the state of foreign assistance from WB, ADB, USAID, Govt. of Italy, JICA DIFID and other development partners for various projects in the spheres of energy, transport and rehabilitation of TDPs. A special briefing was also arranged on the occasion about the Kurram Tangi, a high priority Power Project, also in the affected areas which is part of rehab activities for TDPs, the Minister was informed. A monthly monitoring mechanism has been agreed to keep a watch on the progress of work on this project in consultation with the donors i.e World Bank, USAID and Govt. of Italy.
Meanwhile, Japanese Ambassador Hiroshi Inomata paid a courtesy call on Federal Minister for Finance, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar here on Tuesday.The Minister shared with the Japanese Envoy, outcome of his meetings with Japanese leadership, CEOs of prominent companies and other important personalities during his just concluded visit to Japan. He mentioned about Toyota Motors plans for enhanced investment and Yamaha's future venture for launching a modern motorcycle plant in Pakistan on 27th April. Dar at the same time also appreciated Japanese government's intent to invest $850 million in Lakhra coal power project. The Minister said, he had briefed the Japanese leaders and CEOs of various companies about the turnaround in Pakistan's economy which had been possible through a sustained reforms agenda. He said marked recovery in its economy had enlivened the interest of Japanese companies to invest in Pakistan. He added that during meetings with their senior officials JICA and JBIC expressed renewed interest to invest in Pakistan. He thanked the Japanese Ambassador for facilitating the visit which helped in apprising Japanese leadership about the opportunities for prospective investors.Inomata conveyed to the Minister gratitude of the Japanese leadership for undertaking this visit, which he said would serve as a new beginning in bilateral economic cooperation. He said that invitation to the Japanese Prime Minister to visit Pakistan was being accorded active consideration. He affirmed strong interest of the Japanese side to invest in the Lakhra coal project.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

I find it remarkable that Bangladesh has raised its commercial aviation fleet to approx 50, while the bakistanis are down below 40, not to mention not being able to travel past birmingham.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Kashi »

K Mehta wrote:One of the tactically brilliant idea used by bakistan to overcome the power shortage is increased power generation by hydroelectric plants. This is being done by increased outflow of water, this will lead to reduced storage, which will later be an issue.
But who cares about later down the line.
And they'll bring out the usual "Bhaarat stealing our waters" nonsense and use it to divert the attention of their awam. Their awam as usual will be only too happy to rant against India, instead of real issues plaguing them. The fauj will be happy, Badmash and his cohorts will be happy, the Paki aawam will be unhappy with India and praise the fauj.

All in all, nothing will change in the Pakhana emirate.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Power suspended in parts of blackoutistan

KANDHKOT: Eleven units of the Guddu Thermal Power Plant shut down due to tripping as a result of immense fog and leakage from the gas pipeline caused, officials said Tuesday.

Various areas of Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab suffered 12-hours electricity suspension due to the tripping of these 11 units. Authorities said the units would be restored as soon as the gas leakage is repaired. The Guddu Thermal Power Plant has 17 power units, out of which only six are currently working. It is pertinent to mention here that the power shortfall in the country on Tuesday decreased to 3,500MW as the total generation was recorded as 9,000MW against the demand of 12,500MW at 1300 hours.


The bolded part is interesting because power demand in blackoutistan has remained about 14k MW for some years now.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by manjgu »

i think peak power consumption in delhi is 6000 MW ..which is half of pakis total consumption?
hmmmmmmmmm
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Suraj »

Core Sector

While looking for steel production stats, I was surprised worldsteel data has no reference to Pakistan output. Digging further, it appears they simply do not have any significant native steel production capability, with an annual production ranging between 1.1-1.5 million tonnes, which is approximately 3-4 days worth of steel production in the US or India (both of which produce ~85 million tonnes/annum). Additional steel - approx 3MT - is imported, or recycled from their shipbreaking industry. Even the Gulf states like UAE and Qatar produce 2-3 million tonnes a year. KSA and Egypt produce ~6MT .

Electricity production installed capacity is 23GW. Operating efficiency does not seem to exceed 50-60% at most, because quoted peak demand is 12.5GW, and generation is quoted at 9GW out of 23GW installed capacity, translating to a current operating efficiency of 39% . Comparative data for India is 260GW, which is still below what we need, despite output growing fast and being the 3rd largest electricity producer behind China and the USA. Annual installed capacity addition in India exceeds the current total installed capacity in Pakistan.

Coal production seems to be stagnant - data suggests it's stuck between 3-4 million tonnes a year, for the past 20 years. In some years, production spikes to 5MT, but falls back to 2.5MT too. The extreme variability suggests poor production management, and stable but stagnant consumption, without any significant investment in growth. The insignificance of this output is gauged from comparative data - India produces 650 million tonnes and in addition, imports a lot. Even Indonesia, a comparable sized country, produces 490MT.

In summary, this is essentially a pre-industrial economy. There's practically no coal or steel production of note. Steel output is comparable to Peru, Hungary or Colombia. The entire national power generation by Pakistan would not be sufficient to feed the demand of New Delhi and Mumbai simultaneously. Annual coal production is about a days production in India. This looks like an economy primarily fed by agriculture and services, because there's not sufficient core sector output to feed a viable industrial production base.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Singha »

the KSA can at most supply oil on credit which is not going to help coal or hydro plants.

but true to form perhaps the will organize a barter deal in which indonesia or nigeria lifts the saudi oil and in exchange sends coal to pakistan.

they are absolute masters at surviving on lean resources and tight corners..like a much hunted and elusive coyote.

the gracious mansion lifestyle of lahore and pindi or the sea facing uber residences in karachi will not be impacted. cantonments will face no issues.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by SBajwa »

by Shiv.

Here is a Sudan versus Pakistan comparsion.

Sudan does better on some counts
http://country-facts.findthedata.com/co ... s-Pakistan

Syria versus Pakistan
http://country-facts.findthedata.com/co ... b-Republic

Syria is way waay ahead on many counts

Colombia versus Pakistan
http://country-facts.findthedata.com/co ... s-Pakistan

Bangladesh versus Pakistan
http://country-facts.findthedata.com/co ... s-Pakistan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

The lack of gas and electricity as a source for heat would mean that the average Abdul would have either suffered it out or used good old firewood for heating. This means that the forest cover depletion will be accelerated.

So expect further flooding etc during monsoon. All this points to a rapid Noko-fication of bakiland. Terrible floods every year. Will lead to high silt in the rivers reducing reservoir capacity of dams.

This in turn leads to
1 lower hydroelectric power production, so loop back to paragraph 1 of the post.
2 faster drying up of rivers.

Not to mention effect on agricultural land and produce.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

Mehta Ji, Please post this in Paki thread too so they know and enjoy this upcoming gifts from high heaven. Seems , Jannat is not receding far as calculated by paki Nuclear scientist Brof Bashir but actually creeping closer to Pakistan for tight embrace.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Suraj »

Trade growing even more lopsided in India's favor:
No MFN to India without measures: Pak envoy
In a major change of stance, Pakistan on Monday said granting the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ (MFN) trade status to India will impact its economy adversely because of the uneven trade balance. India has to take adequate steps to increase imports from Pakistan to obtain MFN status, according to Pakistan High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit.

“The balance of trade is heavily in India’s favour. So, if Pakistan was to extend MFN or non-discriminatory market access (NDMA) to India, we do not know what will happen to our economy. It (India) will have to take certain measures where Pakistan’s exports can be increased. We expect our neighbour not to apply non-tariff barriers across the board and show some exemption to its neighbour Pakistan,” Basit said at an event – India Pakistan Trade Normalisation – by ICRIER here.

Basit said one of the steps could be relaxing the stringent sanitary and phytosanitary measures that India imposes on Pakistani goods. He highlighted the number of non-tariff barriers imposed by India on imports from Pakistan.

Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan reached $2.70 billion last financial year from $2.60 billion in 2012-13. In 2013-14, exports to Pakistan stood at $2.27 billion, up 10 per cent compared to $2.06 billion in 2012-13. However, imports from Pakistan declined by 21.22 per cent at $426.88 million in 2013-14 as against $541.87 million, according to data by the ministry of commerce and industry.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by shiv »

K Mehta wrote:The lack of gas and electricity as a source for heat would mean that the average Abdul would have either suffered it out or used good old firewood for heating. This means that the forest cover depletion will be accelerated.

So expect further flooding etc during monsoon. All this points to a rapid Noko-fication of bakiland. Terrible floods every year. Will lead to high silt in the rivers reducing reservoir capacity of dams.

This in turn leads to
1 lower hydroelectric power production, so loop back to paragraph 1 of the post.
2 faster drying up of rivers.

Not to mention effect on agricultural land and produce.
Pakistan tops Asia in deforestation
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Shivji I lost a long post with data while typing. Damn device.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

someone do this math for me: An aircraft flies at 22,000 dollars per hour. there are 80 craft. To fly each once a year, would cost 1.76 million dollars a year. Lets say each flies once a week. it costs ~100 million. But this would give each pilot (considering two sets per craft) only 25 hours. That is sit around 14 days and then a one hour flight. If each pilot gets to fly once a week then there would be two flights a week, or 100 hours per plane per year. Costing 200 million or so.

Anything reasonable (100 hours per pilot), is 200 hours per plane, and a cool 500 millionish not counting stores. Not to mention the life of the airframe being eaten up.

So exactly where is this billion dollar training support coming from? Does it cost less to fly in pakistan, i doubt it. Does the fleet have the availability to support 200+ hours? Is there something wrong with the math or is pakistan burning this amount of cash on keeping the planes up in the air?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by deejay »

^^^ If you are taking only Variable Costs per hour than $1500 per hour for a twin engine jets would be closer to reality. However, the point of high costs are understood and I am pretty sure they are flying less and less every year.

Another important cost consideration will be cost of spares since many spares have defined shelf lives. So the procurement will happen to some extent whether one flies or not for each aircraft.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

^^^ I am not sure how they come up with these numbers:

http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/

but surely there is not a 10x inflation?

Also, the total airframe life is only 8000 hours. By any reasonable standard of operation, would this be already run out for anything made in the 80s? A midlife refit cant unstress the airframe, will it have a predictable number of cycles left?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by chetak »

Shreeman wrote:^^^ I am not sure how they come up with these numbers:

http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/

but surely there is not a 10x inflation?

Also, the total airframe life is only 8000 hours. By any reasonable standard of operation, would this be already run out for anything made in the 80s? A midlife refit cant unstress the airframe, will it have a predictable number of cycles left?

Some aircraft are being delivered to HAL for major overhaul at approx 4000 hours and these have been flying for 20 odd years or more. 8000 hours is a lot of airframe life for non commercial / non transport aircraft.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

chetak,

It is coming to 30 years for the several examples of the type. And at issue is the need for regular flogging. It is one thing if the 80 are part of say 300 and can be spared daily use. Another if they are 80 only now, and were only a handful for most of their lives.

How do you spare the airframe life, with less than 100% availability on the 30ish nos. craft and previously trained people graduating to desk jobs? You cant sparingly use them, even at 100 hour a year levels, and hope to have any number of trained pilots. And at greater than 200 hours, even the 8000 hour design life is up already for the 30+ originals. Why are they still flying?

The flying numbers and flying costs both look like djinn economics to me. If they are flying, where is the money for them? And at over 30 years, they would have to have been proper hanger queens to have anything left in them now.

Why dont they fall out of the air more often. Its not a very reliable craft either.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

shiv wrote:
K Mehta wrote:The lack of gas and electricity as a source for heat would mean that the average Abdul would have either suffered it out or used good old firewood for heating. This means that the forest cover depletion will be accelerated.
Everybody derides the hapless Hindu for using dried cowdung as fuel. But it helped save the forests.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by deejay »

Shreeman wrote:^^^ I am not sure how they come up with these numbers:

http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/

but surely there is not a 10x inflation?

Also, the total airframe life is only 8000 hours. By any reasonable standard of operation, would this be already run out for anything made in the 80s? A midlife refit cant unstress the airframe, will it have a predictable number of cycles left?
I am not in a position to argue with those numbers but here is my reason to say USD 1500 per hour:

Reading an F 16 pilot saying this:

http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1102
...A good rule of thumb was 7 pounds per mile plus your reserve fuel at homeplate. A quick climb to 25-30,000 feet, then pull back to about 1500 pounds per hour at .85 mach, light up and/or eat those stale Fritos, KFC chicken parts, ham sandwich ......... Pretty neat to go 500 miles on 1500 pounds of gas ( that's about 2 miles per gallon, or is my math that far off) ...
Now that 1500 pounds or 852 Ltrs of fuel is from here :http://www.answers.com/Q/How_much_fuel_ ... n_one_hour

That is for both engines on cruise profile but these are military jets and let us just add 50% extra as consumption per hour for other aeros to be performed (An average profile maybe) so we have around 1275 ltrs per hour of Jet fuel burnt. The cost of Jet Fuel in Nov 2014 was USD 2.57 per gallon (if I can read charts correctly) from here:http://www.transtats.bts.gov/fuel.asp That means USD 0.678 per litre in US. (1 Gallon = 3.78541 Litres according to me).

In Pakistan I will take 1 litre = 01 USD (adding local taxes here).

Again, for my calculations I only added Variable Costs (Per hour Cost) of Fuel consumption (80% of total Variable Cost) and Engine Maintenance, Aircraft Maintenance etc ( 15% + 5%) based on prior experience and rough estimations. Not adding charges like Airfield Charges and Ground Handling as Military aircraft will run into fixed cost components here. Hence, I get a figure of USD 1593 per hour for the F16. (~USD 1500 per hour).

Now, for USD 2200 we will have to go all out 'after burners' as per my figures of fuel consumption. USD 22,514 per hour looks like they calculated Life Cycle costs.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Singha »

I have looked at photos of quetta and muzzafarabad.

quetta is surrounded by denuded dry hills like leh and there are thick colonies upto the very edge and some way up the steep slopes. very vulnerable to mudslides like happened in leh after cloudburst.

muzzafarabad is surrounded by badly damaged hills and has a muddy rivers flowing through it. could take a hit both from floods and mud slides.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by kancha »

By the way, has no one in Blackoutistan thought of claiming Carbon Credits for all the oil and coal they haven't been able to burn? :twisted:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

Singha wrote:I have looked at photos of quetta and muzzafarabad.

quetta is surrounded by denuded dry hills like leh and there are thick colonies upto the very edge and some way up the steep slopes. very vulnerable to mudslides like happened in leh after cloudburst.

muzzafarabad is surrounded by badly damaged hills and has a muddy rivers flowing through it. could take a hit both from floods and mud slides.
Think of it as being half-way there to the jannat-e-desert. The yahud-e-hanud have stolen all the water, so there is no risk of landslides due to water. of course, all bets are off if there is a zaljala due to all the un-malsiful acts by the govermand.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

6,600MW Gadani power project put on back burner

Batti Bundh But Mush Is Open: Taste Of Medina Night in new MADina Days
ISLAMABAD: The government said on Tuesday that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s signature mega power project – 6,600MW coal-based Gadani Power Park Project – for ending loadshedding had been put on the back burner because of changing priorities of the Chinese government. :lol: In a testimony before the National Assembly’s standing committee on planning and development, top officers of the power ministry and Pakistan Power Park Management Company (PPMC), which has been set up to specifically undertake and facilitate the Gadani mega project, said a decision had also “been taken that all work relating to PPMC may be handed over to the Private Power and Infrastructure Board for rationalisation of the project”.The parliamentary panel was informed that the PPMC was set up in 2013 for construction of infrastructure like port facilities, coal handling, roads, jetty, etc, to enable setting up of 10 power projects of 660MW each and a transmission line for evacuation of its power. The cost of the entire project was estimated at $6-8 billion.The committee was told that memorandums of understanding were also signed with China under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project for 10 Gadani Power Projects, but later Beijing scaled down its priority over financial and technical apprehensions. For example, the Chinese had concerns over payment issues against electricity sales after the completion of projects and suggested AC, instead of DC, circuit transmission line.
The parliamentary panel was informed Pakistan had even agreed to set up a revolving fund to facilitate direct payments to power producers against electricity sales and was ready to set up AC circuit transmission line, but China reduced the number of projects to four from 10.As a consequence, Pakistan had to redesign the entire project because transmission line and port facilities also needed to be in consonance with 2,600MW, instead of 6,600MW, but the Chinese side reduced Gwadar Power Park on its priority order.The committee was also told that a subsequent meeting of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project expert group decided to downgrade the 660x4 coal power projects at Gwadar from ‘Early Harvest Projects’ to ‘Actively Promoted List’. The meeting was informed that 14 projects on the early harvest project list were now being pursued for completion by 2018, while the remaining seven projects, including Gadani, would be considered for priority implementation depending on progress achieved on the ground.
The government had received expressions of interest from only six companies for 10 projects of 660MW each despite repeated extension in deadlines. ( 10 %)The government had created the Gadani Power Park Management Company early last year as a special purpose vehicle for the management of 6,600MW power projects and to provide infrastructure facilities at the site to acilitate international investors, mostly from China.The 10 projects were first advertised in July last year seeking expressions of interest by Aug 18. Attributing the poor response from investors to sit-in protests in the federal capital, the government extended the deadline to Sept 29, but the response failed to pick up.The deadline was further extended to Oct 31. The government had earlier registered foreign companies for setting up all 10 projects at Gadani through negotiated memoranda of understanding. The firms had deposited earnest money in foreign exchange, but the government decided to invite bids to meet procurement rules to avoid controversies for awarding contracts through negotiations.Therefore, it asked the registered firms to send their expressions of interest, telling them their previous earnest money would be returned or adjusted.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

16 districts of balochistan without power after freedom fighters blow up another transmission line

The attack sparked electricity shortage in 16 districts of Balochistan to reach the equivalent of 82% of demand, according to officials at the state-owned National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which owns almost the entire electricity transmission infrastructure in Pakistan, including the two pylons blown up. “Only 200 to 300 megawatts of electricity is being supplied to major parts of Balochistan, while demand is closer to 1,650MW,” an NTDC official told The Express Tribune.
Yet, despite more than 24 hours elapsing since the attack on the pylons that plunged much of Balochistan into darkness, NTDC officials could not start the repair work on Saturday because they have yet to receive security clearance from the government.

NTDC officials say that power outages last for between 20 and 22 hours in most parts of Balochistan and eight to ten hours in the provincial capital Quetta. Yet despite the lengthy outages, NTDC officials appear to be in no hurry to fix the problem. “The repair work will start after receiving security clearance in the area,”

NTDC sources said. “It would take three to four days to complete the repair work once it is started.”
By comparison, the government was able to restore power to Islamabad and parts of Lahore within five hours
of the January 24 attack.


Pakistan is exploiting the abundant natural resources of Balochistan, particularly in energy. The province produces close to a quarter of the country’s natural gas supply and gets to use almost none of it. Royalties paid on natural gas to the provincial government of Balochistan were, until 2010, a quarter of the royalties paid to Punjab for its gas reserves. And despite having over 10% of the country’s electricity generating capacity, Balochistan frequently gets less than 3% of the supply.


Load-shedding in Balochistan

In remote areas, electricity is available for just two to three hours a day. Sometimes there is no electricity for 72 hours at a stretch.
The people of Balochistan are perhaps the greatest sufferers when it comes to poverty or the lack of basic facilities such as healthcare, education, infrastructure and power supply. According to a Qesco spokesperson, the national energy crisis and non-payment of bills are the main reasons for the increased hours of load-shedding. Surely Qesco ought to cut supply to those agricultural consumers that owe the authority billions of rupees – and spare the poor.
There are four huge power plants in Balochistan, which generate around 2,300MW of electricity — Hubco Power has a capacity of 1,229MW, Habibullah Coastal has a capacity of 140MW, while the Uch Power Plants I and II have capacities of over 900MW. Despite that, electricity first goes to the National Grid Station, and then it is distributed across Pakistan. Balochistan itself receives just 300 to 400MW of electricity due to the poor infrastructure. The prime minister, during the inauguration of Uch Power Plant II had promised to alleviate the suffering of the Baloch people. But his promises have gone unfulfilled. The province continues to receive tail-end supply.

The people of Balochistan have been made to feel as if they are second or third class citizens when it comes to the provision of basic facilities, development works and relief. Their grievances must now be heard and addressed.
Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Pakistan's economy to fall in 2015 as South Asian economies strengthen: UN forecast
South Asian economies are expected to grow by 5.4% in 2015, a four-year high, a report published by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the United Nations (UN) on Monday. However, Pakistan’s economy is expected to fall during 2015.
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Suraj
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Starved for Energy, Pakistan Braces for a Water Crisis
Energy-starved Pakistanis, their economy battered by chronic fuel and electricity shortages, may soon have to contend with a new resource crisis: major water shortages, the Pakistani government warned this week.

A combination of global climate change and local waste and mismanagement have led to an alarmingly rapid depletion of Pakistan’s water supply, said the minister for water and energy, Khawaja Muhammad Asif.

“Under the present situation, in the next six to seven years, Pakistan can be a water-starved country,” Mr. Asif said in an interview, echoing a warning that he first issued at a news conference in Lahore this week.

The prospect of a major water crisis in Pakistan, even if several years distant, offers a stark reminder of a growing challenge in other poor and densely populated countries that are vulnerable to global climate change.

In the interview, Mr. Asif said the government had started to bring the electricity crisis under control, and predicted a return to a normal supply by 2017. But energy experts are less confident that such a turnaround is possible, given how long and complex the problem has proved to be.

Now the country’s water supply looms as a resource challenge, intensified by Pakistan’s enduring infrastructure and management problems.

Agriculture is a cornerstone of the Pakistani economy. The 2,000-mile-long Indus River, which rises in the Himalayas and spans the country, feeds a vast network of irrigation canals that line fields producing wheat, vegetables and cotton, all major sources of foreign currency. In the north, hydroelectric power stations are a cornerstone of the creaking power system.

A combination of melting glaciers, decreasing rainfall and chronic mismanagement by successive governments has put that water supply in danger, experts say.

In a report published in 2013, the Asian Development Bank described Pakistan as one of the most “water-stressed” countries in the world, with a water availability of 1,000 cubic meters per person per year — a fivefold drop since independence in 1947, and about the same level as drought-stricken Ethiopia.
Shreeman
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shreeman »

^^^ Brazil has beaten bakistan on this front with the coming water rationing. But at least bakistan can claim it has joined the BRICS!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

Some credit rating relief for Pakistan?
http://tribune.com.pk/story/846730/sove ... ys-moodys/
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

"Early Harvest" projects in the press so far:

1. Port Qasim Thermal Power Plant.
from:
http://pk.chineseembassy.org/eng/zbgx/t1155081.htm

2. Land acquisition and shifting of utilities for the Karachi-Lahore motorway.
3. Construction of the Lahore-Abdul Hakim-Khanewal motorway section.
4. Construction of the Multan-Sukkur motorway section.
5. Cconstruction of the Raikot-Havelian-Islamabad motorway section.
from:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/840974/mini ... -corridor/

6. Upgrading railway Main Line-1 (Karachi-Lahore-Peshawar-Havelian)
from:
http://www.brecorder.com/business-a-eco ... 9/1155610/
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

The Pakistan-China Economic Corridor is a 15-year project.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/mobile/insi ... onbusiness

While in the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said:
The $45 billion project would create a 3,000km road and rail links as well as pipelines to transport oil and gas to China from port city of Gwadar. The under-construction project, which is expected to be completed by 2030, is considered central to the Pakistan-China economic relations. “The economic corridor is not going to benefit China and Pakistan alone, it’s going to benefit the entire region — Central Asian states, India, Afghanistan and other neighbouring countries. It’s a win-win position for everyone,” Dar concluded.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by svinayak »

A_Gupta wrote: The under-construction project, which is expected to be completed by 2030, is considered central to the Pakistan-China economic relations. “The economic corridor is not going to benefit China and Pakistan alone, it’s going to benefit the entire region — Central Asian states, India, Afghanistan and other neighbouring countries. It’s a win-win position for everyone,” Dar concluded.
India can make sure that this project and Gwader port made irrelevant.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

As of now bakistan has less than 2.1% of total area as forest, with most of the forest area in NWFP and POK especially GB.
From world bank 2012 data http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.FRST.ZS

From FAO website 2005 data
http://www.fao.org/forestry/country/57478/en/pak/
Pakistan has very low forest cover. Natural forests represent just over 3 percent of the total land area, but their community and species diversity reflects the country's great physiographic and climatic contrasts. Pakistan's forest and woodland types include: littoral and swamp forests; tropical dry deciduous forests; tropical thorn forests; sub-tropical broad-leaved evergreen forests; sub-tropical pine forests; Himalayan moist temperate forests; Himalayan dry temperate forests; sub-alpine forests; and alpine scrub. Coniferous forests predominate. The North West Frontier Province contains approximately 40 percent of the forests in Pakistan.

Woodfuels are very important in Pakistan. Around 90 percent of Pakistan's wood production is used as fuel, and almost 80 percent of households use wood for cooking.



From here http://rainforests.mongabay.com/defores ... kistan.htm
Wood removal 2005
Industrial roundwood (1000 cubic m) 2,301
Wood fuel (1000 cubic m) 31,603
Total wood removal 2005 (1000 cubic m) 33,904

More than 90% of wood removal is for fuel and in conditions like this year it would have been higher than earlier, due to lack of gas for heating and power.

Image
The above map from FAO shows that most of the forests are in POK and NWFP, this is also where there is maximum deforestation.
http://www.fao.org/forestry/country/18314/en/pak/


Till 2005 data from http://www.fao.org/forestry/country/32185/en/pak/

Code: Select all

FRA 2005 categories	Area (1000 hectares)
                1990          2000         2005
Forest        2,527         2,116        1,902
The rate has been ~40 K hectares deforestation/year, which means by now only ~1,500 K hectares would be left. In 25 years they have lost 40% or more of their forest cover and in 35-40 years they would have lost almost entire forest cover.

It is this kind of deforestation which is causing the floods happening in bakistan, it may also be responsible for the drought in Tharparkar. I am fairly certain that the floods in J&K were also due to such terrible deforestation rates. With economic mismanagement and lack of fuel and electricity for heating leading from it, the deforestation and floods would keep increasing. This would lead to further damage to economy and would lead to a cascade.

This is very similar to North Korea where similar deforestation and erosion of land have occurred. This fact should be highlighted everytime there is a debate on Indians causing the floods and rivers running dry.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by K Mehta »

Timber trouble: Karakoram forest cover vanishing
According to experts, the continuous illegal felling of trees such as pine, kail and deodar, forest cover in G-B has eroded more than 50 per cent in the last 20 years — down from 640,000 hectares to just 295,000 hectares.
According to a recent research by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the impact of global warming, coupled with the impact of massive deforestation, has contributed to the glaciers of G-B receeding by 2.6 kilometres in the last 36 years.
Meanwhile, forest covered increased from 5,000 acres to 8,333 from 2001 to 2008, but gradually dropped to 2,666 acres in 2013 and fell further to 2,594 acres in 2014.
In 1993, the government of Pakistan imposed a ban on felling of trees from commercial forests, and after lifting the ban for one year, the government imposed it again in 2001, however, unscrupulous elements, with the connivance of forests officials, continue to cut and sell wood down country, causing major deforestation.

Logging; G-B stripped of more than 50% forest cover
From 2009 to 2013, illegal cutting and transportation of timber continued, and on March 15, 2013, former prime minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, just a day before the end of his term, lifted the ban on movement of illegally felled timber from Diamer.

“The incumbent government initially imposed a ban on cutting and transportation of timber, but it reversed its decision after a month due to strong lobbying by loggers, which has further aggravated deforestation in Diamer,” said Muhammad Khan Qureshi, a resident of Chilas, and an active forests protection campaigner in G-B.
“Now, the timber mafia has started fresh cutting, while the local forest department has turned a deaf ear to the issue, despite several complaints,” Qureshi said, adding that the local communities have decided to revive Zaito committees — community-based committees to protect forests — with a meeting to be held in Chilas on January 27.


As usual baksitan is able to make money out of it.
Pakistan to get $39m to preserve forests
In a bid to preserve forests in Pakistan, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) under the Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) programme will provide Pakistan with a $35 million grant.Similarly, a World Bank mission which recently visited Pakistan contended that the country qualified for the opportunity to receive a $3.8 million grant from the bank through its Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) facility.

See also
felling trees
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Guddu »

Image

Looks like bakistan is following the lead of forefathers
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