10/7 vs 9/11 (Israel-Gaza) Strategic Fallout & Implications

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 10 Oct 2023 03:25

We need to talk about wider strategic fallout & implications for the Israel-Gaza crisis.

I also wanted to start by noting some of the similarities to 9/11 and dissimilarities.

As with 9/11, the 10/7 events have brought the menace of terrorism back into sharp focus. But have socio-political changes which have occurred since 9/11 then ensured that socio-political reactions will be very different? Sure, it's Israel being attacked and not US directly, but the unprovoked pre-meditated orchestrated sneak-attack aspect, along with the horrific casualties, still evoke a similar visceral reaction.

With 9/11, Pakistan was also put sharply into focus, due to its intimate involvement in the attack, which emanated from its Afghan client state, and did involve some collusion from ISI.

But this time with 10/7, Pakistan is only peripheral and not central/causal. Will Pakistan however remain just a peripheral spectator, or will it somehow seek to profit from, or milk/exploit these and other ensuing events which follow on from them?
As a failing state which can't survive on its own normal means, Pakistan likes (needs) to exploit crises to get extra sustenance from them.
In what ways will it do this?

How will India's relative leverage and prospects change from this crisis?
What will the impact be on decision-making?
Can we get a little more cooperation on our terrorism concerns, instead of Blinken-Sullivan showing disturbing instincts to brand us a pariah?
Can we use the opportunity to get mental lightweight grifters like Jagmeet & Justinder out of our hair?

Will the rising tide of Woke globalism face more pushback, at least temporarily?

How will China, Russia, Iran and others profit?

What are all the possible strategic and geopolitical ripple effects, and how will they play out?

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 10 Oct 2023 03:48

We already have West Asia and hamas attack thread.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 10 Oct 2023 04:30

RoyG wrote: ↑10 Oct 2023 03:48 We already have West Asia and hamas attack thread.

I know, but this is to specifically discuss the wider strategic & geopolitical fallout -- which could be quite huge -- as distinct from the actual events playing out on the ground in Israel & Gaza.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Oct 2023 07:43

You need to layout the topics and ideas in your mind that triggered creating this thread.
And if any off-topic posts come do report it for admins to review.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 11 Oct 2023 09:52

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2023-10-11
Indian military leadership studying Hamas attacks on Israel in detail: Sources
Amid an ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Indian military leadership is studying in detail the attacks on Israeli targets by the terror group Hamas.
Manjeet Negi, New Delhi, Oct 11, 2023
The Indian military leadership is studying in detail the attacks on Israeli targets by the terror group Hamas. The issue is also likely to come up for discussion during the Indian Army's commanders conference planned in the third week of October, a senior official told India Today.
The Indian forces are also studying the possible gaps in intelligence gathering that could have led to the failure of the Israeli agencies in predicting the terror attack by Hamas.
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
Palestinian terrorist group Hamas launched a barrage of rocket attacks in southern Israel on Saturday, October 7, killing over 1,600 lives on both sides. At least 900 people have been killed and 2,600 injured in Israel. Meanwhile, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, 704 people have been killed, including 143 children and 105 women, and over 4,000 injured in Israeli airstrikes.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday also spoke to his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. After the call, PM Modi said that India "condemns terrorism in all its forms".
.......
Gautam
I remember clearly, in the 1971 war with Pakistan, General Yahya Khan, who was a combination of Rommel, Patton and Zhukov in one body, decided to attack Indian airfields just before the war had started, emulating Israel. They might plan similar things based on the Hammas attacks in the coming Gazwa-e-Hind.

bala · Post by **bala** » 11 Oct 2023 10:39

I hope this YT is relevant here. Question is who is supporting Hamas in terms of military aid and intelligence tech. There has been a lead time of at least 1-2 yrs in terms of planning such a meticulous attack with matching weapons. Weapons have streamed from many nations via the black market of origin from nations like Syria, Turkey, Russia/Ukraine, Iran, China and I add the Pukes too. Rockets from Iran are of China design. China does not classify Hamas as terrorist org. Funding has come from Iran, Qatar and other sympathizers of Palestine cause. There has been a major intelligence failure but I am sure there is some intelligence with Israel, US CIA, etc. Hacks have been spearheaded by China tech. China wants to broker the peace deal between Israel-Palestine. China is ready to block anything at the UN detrimental to Hamas.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 11 Oct 2023 12:55

Erdogan gripes against US support to Israel

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 11 Oct 2023 22:28

Garooda · Post by **Garooda** » 11 Oct 2023 22:35

sanman wrote: ↑11 Oct 2023 12:55 Erdogan gripes against US support to Israel

Turkey, nuff said

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 12 Oct 2023 06:10

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-e ... ne-maloney

The End of America’s Exit Strategy in the Middle East

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/ha ... st-future/

The Hamas Attack Has Changed Everything

and finally:

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 12 Oct 2023 06:23

So does this now change everything??

Is America now trapped in the Middle East?

How much will China be able to profit from this?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Oct 2023 06:53

Hamas has bout 14 American.hostages. Erdogan can use his good offices to get them freed.
The carrier is to ensure he stops sending weapons to Hamas with Qatar money.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 12 Oct 2023 07:15

sanman wrote: ↑12 Oct 2023 06:23 So does this now change everything??

Is America now trapped in the Middle East?

How much will China be able to profit from this?

America is in ME as long as Oil is relevant (very very long time). i watched couptas video and the demands that KSA is making are as ridiculous as expecting KSA to be a Liberal Democracy hosting pride parades and Beer festivals

i think this will show the limits of Israeli power and American support.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 12 Oct 2023 20:13

ramana wrote: ↑12 Oct 2023 06:53 Hamas has bout 14 American.hostages. Erdogan can use his good offices to get them freed.
The carrier is to ensure he stops sending weapons to Hamas with Qatar money.

Carrier is to deter Iran/Hezbollah from piling on against Israel

Atmavik wrote: ↑12 Oct 2023 07:15 America is in ME as long as Oil is relevant (very very long time). i watched couptas video and the demands that KSA is making are as ridiculous as expecting KSA to be a Liberal Democracy hosting pride parades and Beer festivals

i think this will show the limits of Israeli power and American support.

What happened to "Pivot to Asia"? Or was that always just a false start and hollow slogan?
Australia has AUKUS - but what happens to Japan, Korea, etc without "Pivot to Asia"?

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 Oct 2023 02:39

What is the US doing?

(I'd also like to know - what are China and Pak doing?)

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 Oct 2023 14:45

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 Oct 2023 15:53

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 Oct 2023 15:58

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 Oct 2023 17:02

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 13 Oct 2023 21:31

check this 2 hour podcast from ANI. Interview with Col. Bakshi & Lt. Gen. Shukla on why Mossad failed.
Never felt bored throughout the 2 hour podcast.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 14 Oct 2023 03:25

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 14 Oct 2023 05:17

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 14 Oct 2023 08:46

R Charan · Post by **R Charan** » 14 Oct 2023 22:29

Lessons for India of Hamas strike on Israel

The recent Hamas strike on Israel has raised important lessons for India, particularly in the context of dealing with surprise and deception tactics by adversaries. Lt Gen PR Shankar, a former DG Artillery with extensive operational experience, emphasizes the need for enhanced vigilance and contingency measures in various security aspects.
https://www.defencenews.in/2023/10/less ... on-israel/

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 14 Oct 2023 23:11

There was a local hand and support during 26/11 and will be there in future attacks as well untill we keep giving milk to sapolas at home. How else can one answer 3-4 days of resistance during clean up operations across different hotspots.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 00:59

Pushback from American CEOs against Hamas supporters

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 06:19

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 08:16

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 11:09

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 11:50

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 11:58

Here come the Pakistanis - they always gotta get in on the jihad act

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 12:13

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 12:21

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 15 Oct 2023 15:55

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Oct 2023 02:05

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Oct 2023 05:57

bala · Post by **bala** » 16 Oct 2023 06:41

What are the India specific issues in this Israel Hamas War. India has to articulate its position clearly - terrorism is not to be tolerated, peaceful co-existence (if this is possible) of both Israel and Palestine. This lt. gen. discussions lays out the contours of India implications from the sudden Israel Hamas war. Also India has to be wary of the neighbor next door and one to the north east for any such adventures on India.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Oct 2023 10:08

Here come the Lefties with their bag of tropes

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/ ... from-india

Analysis: Why is so much anti-Palestinian disinformation coming from India?
Amid the Israel-Gaza war, Indian right-wing accounts are among leading amplifiers of anti-Palestinian fake news.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Oct 2023 10:12

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/1 ... s-00121601

China says Israel has gone too far
China’s official news agency reported on a diplomatic conversation with Saudi Arabia.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 16 Oct 2023 10:14

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/15/biden- ... -hamas-war
Biden says Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a "big mistake"