Shiv, Just like you psikoed TSP I would request you to do the same to US. There is an urgent need to understand this. Please consider and oblige.
Ramana - I am more like a freak than an engineer. I get sudden pisko flashes. I rarely sit down and analyse bit by bit. But when I have collected up enough pisko flashes it begins to make sense so I will give it a go. Sometimes when you second guess others' thought processes you come up with a very odd way of seeing things.
I will try and explain that. For example Anant says:
The US is best at defeating a conventional army, but to really defeat TSP, support from India will be critical. The Paki's, like it or not, are actually related to us ethnically. We understand them better than anyone else. We can't be like Iran, sitting and watching when the US was pounding Saddam in the Gulf wars. This lack of "real" support will actually delay or even convince the US to just leave the situation as is. I'm pretty convinced of this,
We are constantly banging our heads on this thread bout how the US can defeat Pakhanaland and when they might do that. But it strikes me that this is the thought process of a bunch of people who are getting provoked by Pakistan and feel the urge that Pakistan should be "bashed up"/"punished" to solve the problem. But if you go back right through the history of Pakistani reactions and statements over the years you find that for some entities (Like Pakistan) actual military defeat and even loss of territory, failure of goals after they start war and even hunger and suffer8ig among people is never ever called defeat.
The analogy here (for the purpose of pisko analysis) is like a small built guy who is irritating you - maybe trying to pinch your wife/girlfriend's bottom. Imagine you take this guy and thrash him till you are satisfied that he has been punished. This guy is lying on the floor groaning - and he says "I won. Nyahahahaha
!" You are not a murderer. You will not kill him - so the guy recovers from the thrashing and shamelessly continues what he was always doing. This analogy cannot really be applied to nations - but it has a pisko dimension that I will explain.
I think people (eg BRFites and some in the media) are getting irritated by Pakistan's behavior and wanting to see Pakistan thoroughly bashed up. If India is not going to do it we hope the US might do that. This says more about our thoughts than what the US (or GoI) might be thinking. The point is that a pisko analysis of Pakistan is already available to US leaders, if not Indian leaders.
For the US the problem is that they know damn well that small military defeats meted out to Pakistan will not be called defeats by those leaders who survive those defeats. In fact the Pakis will provoke some minor confrontation and back down from that confrontation to prove to their own people that they can stand up to a superpower. That is exactly what the Paki military is doing. The bin Laden raid was a classic case. The US smartly shoved an ungli up but look how the Pakis army has reacted? They dismissed that with a few excuses and are now "warning" the US and even hinting (constantly via various spokespersons) that they have nuclear weapons and that "the US would not dare attack us. We are not Iraq or Kosovo
". The language is one of "daring the US
". "I dare you to knock this chip off my shoulder
A US leader who is provoked by such theatrics into starting an all out war to punish Pakistan will find that he is hitting Pakistani people and Pakistani soccer ball factories and and any defeat that fails to remove the military leaders will be declares as a Pakistani victory and ability to "fight a superpower to a standstill". But if Paki leaders challenge and dare the UIS and the US does not respond, Pakistani leaders will still say "We won. The US is too scared to attack us. We are a nuclear power
On BRF the next question we ask is "Why does the US not just remove the Paki leaders?
". This again tells me more about our mindset than what US leaders think. We labor under the illusion that the US can do anything easily. We are allowed to be stupid, but the US is not that stupid. US leaders are not that stupid.
"Removing leaders" is less easy than people might imagine. By nature military leaders/potentates/dictators retain power by having a very powerful and loyal groups around them. Usually violent men or gang leaders themselves whose life and luxuries are provided by the leader in exchange for allegiance. this is totally different from democracies. The Pakistani military is no different. Just see how long it too and how many power had to get involved to take out one Gadhafi and that was in Europe's backyard. A direct military attack on the Pakistani military leaders will be a prolonged and costly affair. The usual argument that is posed here is "So what? the US can afford it and the US can do it
". That may be true but the US does not do it because of a simple fact that has been written about by a large number of American scholars on Pakistan. The Pakistani army, like all powerful oligarchies has been careful to remove all other possible centers of power who can grab power from them. Any time a political leader becomes too powerful or popular he or she is removed from power by the army. So if you remove the Pakistan army you have no powerful "national" leadership in Pakistan. That will ensure that Pakistan will most likely break up into multiple small fragments in civil war.
For us on BRF - we would be happy to see the whole Af-Pak region sink into a chaotic morass. In fact Pakistani leaders are promising the US that this is exactly what will happen if they are removed from power. Imagine an area the size of Afghanistan and Pakistan together under Taliban control with lots of infighting and factions. They would serve as an area where the Dawoods and Shezads of the world seek shelter. Sooner or later other nations will get provoked into war. India would have to take military action. Perhaps the USSR again. Perhaps even China. All these powers are kept at bay by the presence of a powerful central Pakistan governing body - the Pakistan army. The US knows this and for that reason the US has no interest in taking down the Pakistan army. Everyone knows that if the US stops supporting the Paki army, India or the US can take it out.
The US has tried to impose puppet leaders on various nations in opposition to other leaders. But you cannot foist a puppet leader who is unpopular. The US tried to impose Benazir Bhutto. Guess what happened? So the US continues to woo the Pakistani army and has no realistic solutions. Attacking and taking out the Paki army is one thing they will not do. They will, like Indian leaders, sit back and philosophically accept it as Paki military leaders crow that they challenged the US and got away.
The final solution is looking like something that does not involve war. War is only advantageous to the Pakistani army. If there is no war they win. If they are defeated the other party (USA/India) cannot win. Real life Catch 22.