Bharat Rakshak

Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
It is currently 02 Aug 2014 07:15

All times are UTC + 5:30 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 3839 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 96  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Geopolitical thread
PostPosted: 21 Feb 2008 18:21 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 10566
Location: India
I'm posting this here because of the implications for the future,sparked off first by the Chinese,who are now playing a two-faced game.Killing nemy sats during/before a crisis could very well give either side a crippling advantage over the other.We should not be found wanting in the future.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... ite321.xml

Rogue satellite shot down over the Pacific
By Catherine Elsworth in Los Angeles and Richard Spencer in Beijing
Last Updated: 12:28pm GMT 21/02/2008

A missile launched from a US Navy warship has struck a defunct and potentially deadly spy satellite orbiting more than 130 miles above the Earth, the Pentagon has said.

Watch: Pentagon confirms direct hit on satellite
Officials said it was too soon to tell if the satellite's tank of toxic fuel had been successfully shattered in the operation as planned but a senior military source said early indications suggested that goal had been achieved.

The SM-3 missile was fired from the USS Lake Erie in the Pacific Ocean at about 10:26 pm Eastern Standard Time (3.26am UK time), the Pentagon said in a statement. The specially-adapted missile's "kill vehicle" hit the dead satellite, which was about the size of a bus, about three minutes after launch.

"A network of land, air, sea and space-based sensors confirms that the US military intercepted a non-functioning National Reconnaissance Office satellite which was in its final orbits before entering the earth's atmosphere," the Pentagon said. "Confirmation that the fuel tank has been fragmented should be available within 24 hours."

"There's a good indication that the fuel tank was hit because there was an explosion," the military source told Reuters.

The announcement brought an immediate response from Beijing, where some suspect the action was intended as a warning respone to China's test shooting-down of an ageing weather satellite with a long-range missile in January 2007.

A foreign ministry spokesman demanded that the United States supply full data on the explosion, saying it was monitoring "possible harm to outer space security".

Washington said the operation was carried out to prevent the satellite's 1,000 pounds of hazardous hydrazine fuel from causing any damage on re-entry. The Bush administration deemed it a potential health hazard to humans if it landed intact.

advertisementAlthough the satellite was circling the Earth every 90 minutes analysts pinpointed a single point each day as the safest spot to launch the strike so any debris would fall over water or on to less-populated areas of land.

The Pentagon said that "due to the relatively low altitude of the satellite at the time of the engagement, debris will begin to re-enter the earth's atmosphere immediately. Nearly all of the debris will burn up on reentry within 24-48 hours and the remaining debris should re-enter within 40 days."

The launch of the Navy missile marked the first such use of the Pentagon's missile defense system, which was designed to shoot down hostile ballistic missiles, not rogue satellites.

The operation was so unprecedented, politically charged and high profile, that US Defence Secretary Robert Gates personally took the decision to pull the trigger. He authorised the Navy to fire the missile during a flight from Washington to Hawaii.

The Pentagon described the stray spacecraft as a test satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office, a US intelligence agency, that was launched in December 2006 and ceased communicating almost immediately on reaching orbit.

Some experts have questioned the Pentagon's justification for the mission, saying the chances of any part of the satellite causing harm were extremely remote.

But government officials have denied suggestions they wanted to destroy the satellite to prevent part of the classified spacecraft from falling into the hands of rival powers.

Russia and China have meanwhile expressed concern about the operation, with Moscow suggesting it could be used as cover to test a new space weapon.

China foreign ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, said: "China is continuing to closely follow the possible harm caused by the US action to outer space security and relevant countries.


A cruiser launches an SM-3. The technology was adapted to bring down satellites


"China further requests that the US fulfil its international obligations in earnest and promptly provide to the international community the necessary information and relevant data... so that relevant countries can take precautions."

People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, suggested in yesterday's edition, published before the missile was shot down, that the United States was being hypocritical, and asking why it had not accepted Chinese and Russian proposals for a ban on weapons in space.

Washington and other western powers criticised China's test, which it only admitted after it had already been revealed by the Pentagon.

"The United States, the world's top space power, has often accused other countries of vigorously developing military space technology, but faced with the Chinese-Russian proposal to restrict space armaments, it runs in fear from what it claimed to love," it said.

US officials reject the connection along with suggestions that the Pentagon was proving it had similar abilities to shoot down a satellite.

"This is about reducing the risk to human life on Earth, nothing more," Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, told the New York Times.

Admiral Timothy Keating, head of US Pacific Command, said there were similarities with the Chinese test but that Washington had given advance notice. "They just shot, they didn't tell anybody about it," he said.

Left alone, the satellite would have been expected to hit Earth during the first week of March. About half of the 5,000-pound (2,300-kilogram) spacecraft would have been expected to survive its blazing descent through the atmosphere and would have scattered debris over several hundred miles.

Related articles
America 'to shoot down disabled spy satellite'
19 January 2007: Chinese missile destroys satellite in space
27 January 2008: Satellite 'the size of a bus' could crash to Earth
20 February 2008: Out-of-control satellite shooting faces delay


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 21 Feb 2008 23:18 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
http://www.indiaenews.com/srilanka/20080221/99069.htm

SL Tamil separatist groups celebrate Kosovo's independence....clearly, the establishment of a precedent is taken very seriously by insurgent groups and those who support such groups for selfish reasons.

Any comments from the pro-kosovo-declaration POV?

Quote:
Separatist Sri Lankan Tamils have hailed the emergence of an independent Kosovo with Western support, saying it augurs well for the liberation of 'oppressed' minorities like the Tamils of northeast Sri Lanka


Wouldn't recognizing Kosovo be a huge self-goal for India in light of the above?

Still do not quite understand the perspective of the "what me worry?" approach to recognizing Kosovo.

Wouldn't Indians have to be pretty clueless to do the following? i.e., support the creation of international legal regimes by signing up for the Indo-US deal....while simultaneously supporting the creation of legal precedents in the yet-tobe-defined "international law" that can come to bite India down the line. If it is all realpolitik only anyway, then why all the drama about the finer print in the Indo-US deal?


Last edited by Rye on 21 Feb 2008 23:33, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 21 Feb 2008 23:30 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31
Posts: 13159
2 pages
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 64,00.html
Quote:
SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH HENRY KISSINGER
'Europeans Hide Behind the Unpopularity of President Bush'

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 84, has thrown his support behind John McCain. SPIEGEL spoke with Kissinger about Germany's Afghanistan mission, tepid European commitment to combatting Islamist extremism and whether direct talks with Iran should go ahead.

SPIEGEL: Dr. Kissinger, you have endorsed Senator John McCain as your choice for the White House. McCain, though, has said he would be prepared to stay in Iraq for another 100 years. Are you sure he is the right man for the job?

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger thinks that John McCain would make the best choice for the next US president. He would also like to see more European involvement in the fight against Islamist extremism.

Jürgen Frank

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger thinks that John McCain would make the best choice for the next US president. He would also like to see more European involvement in the fight against Islamist extremism.
Kissinger: John and I have been friends for 30 years. I have great confidence in him.

SPIEGEL: Most Americans would like to see a rapid withdrawal from Iraq and possibly Afghanistan. But McCain has made his motto "No Surrender." (more...)

Kissinger: He was trying to make a distinction between American military forces in a country where they were there as part of a civil war and military forces that are part of an alliance accepted by the population, such as in Germany after World War II. He did not say we should stay in Iraq in a combat mission. He was trying to make exactly the opposite point.

SPIEGEL: The Democrats have promised a rapid withdrawal. Is this a realistic option?

Kissinger: The issue is: Are American forces withdrawn as part of a political settlement? Or are they withdrawn because America is exhausted by the war? In the latter case, the consequences of an American withdrawal would be catastrophic.

SPIEGEL: Do you think there would be another eruption of violence?

Kissinger: There would be a high possibility of killing fields. Radical Islam won't stop because we withdraw. A rapid withdrawal would be a demonstration in the region of the impotence of Western power. Hamas, Hezbollah, and al-Qaida would achieve a more dominant role, and the ability of Western nations to shape events would be sharply reduced. The virus would have huge consequences for all countries with large Muslim populations: India, Indonesia, and large parts of Europe.


FROM THE MAGAZINE
Find out how you can reprint this DER SPIEGEL article in your publication.
SPIEGEL: That is not how many Europeans see it.

Kissinger: Some Europeans do not want to understand that this is not an American problem alone. The consequences of such an outcome would be at least as serious for Europe as for the Americans.

SPIEGEL: What does Europe not understand? Paris, London and Berlin do not see the "war on terror" as a common challenge for the West?

Kissinger: I don't like the term "war on terror" because terror is a method, not a political movement. We are in a war against radical Islam that is trying to overthrow the moderate elements in the Islamic world and which is fundamentally challenging the secular structures of Western societies. All this is happening at a difficult period in European history.

SPIEGEL: Difficult why?

Kissinger: The major events in European history were conducted by nation-states which developed over several hundred years. There was never a question in the mind of European populations that the state was authorized to ask for sacrifices and that the citizens had a duty to carry it out. Now the structure of the nation-state has been given up to some considerable extent in Europe. And the capacity of governments to ask for sacrifices has diminished correspondingly.

SPIEGEL: Thirty years ago, you asked for one phone number that could be used to call Europe.

Kissinger: ... and it happened. The problem now is: Nation-states have not just given up part of their sovereignty to the European Union but also part of their vision for their own future. Their future is now tied to the European Union, and the EU has not yet achieved a vision and loyalty comparable to the nation-state. So, there is a vacuum between Europe's past and Europe's future.

Kissinger would like to see more German involvement in Afghanistan.
Zoom
DER SPIEGEL

Kissinger would like to see more German involvement in Afghanistan.
SPIEGEL: What do you expect from European leaders? Should German Chancellor Angela Merkel step up and ask the Germans to make sacrifices in the fight against terrorism?

Kissinger: I think Angela Merkel, like any leader, has to think of her re-election. I have high regard for her. But I do not know many Europeans who would deny that the victory of radical Islam in Baghdad, Beirut or Saudi Arabia would have huge consequences for the West. However, they are not willing to fight to prevent it.

SPIEGEL: For example in Afghanistan. Does NATO need more German troops in the southern part of the country?

Kissinger: I think it is obvious that the United States cannot permanently do all the fighting for Western interests by itself. So, two conclusions are possible: Either there are no Western interests in the region and we don't fight. Or there are vital Western interests in the region and we have to fight. That means we need more German and NATO troops (more...) in Afghanistan. What I am not comfortable with is that some NATO members send troops primarily for non-combat missions. That cannot be a healthy situation in the long term.

SPIEGEL: Many Germans say we have to stand up to the terrorists, but that Germans can't do the actual fighting, partly because of our history. You are intimately familiar with German history -- your family left Germany when you were nearly 15 years old. Is it fair for today's Germany to refer to the constraints of history?

Kissinger: I understand it, but it is not a sustainable position. In the long run, we cannot have two categories of members in the NATO alliance: those that are willing to fight and others that are trying to be members à la carte. That cannot work for long.

SPIEGEL: Do you think the Germans can be persuaded to change their approach?

Part 2: 'The Bush Administration Made Several Mistakes'

Kissinger: The Germans have to decide that for themselves. But if they stick to that attitude, Germany would be a different kind of nation than Britain or France or others.

German troops have largely focused on reconstruction in the relatively peaceful northern part of Afghanistan.
Zoom
DDP

German troops have largely focused on reconstruction in the relatively peaceful northern part of Afghanistan.
SPIEGEL: Isn't German and European opposition to a greater military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq also a result of deep distrust of American power?

Kissinger: By this time next year, we will see the beginning of a new administration. We will then discover to what extent the Bush administration was the cause or the alibi for European-American disagreements. Right now, many Europeans hide behind the unpopularity of President Bush. And this administration made several mistakes in the beginning.

SPIEGEL: What do you see as the biggest mistakes?

Kissinger: To go into Iraq with insufficient troops, to disband the Iraqi army, the handling of the relations with allies at the beginning even though not every ally distinguished himself by loyalty. But I do believe that George W. Bush has correctly understood the global challenge we are facing, the threat of radical Islam, and that he has fought that battle with great fortitude. He will be appreciated for that later.

SPIEGEL: In 50 years, historians will treat his legacy more kindly?

Kissinger: That will happen much earlier.

SPIEGEL: Will the next president of the United States ask for a greater European commitment?

Kissinger: It is not impossible that a new administration will say that we can't go on without more European commitment. And that they would use this as an excuse for withdrawal from Iraq or Afghanistan. I don't think John McCain would do that, though.

SPIEGEL: Barack Obama also says the conflict in Pakistan is the war Americans really need to win. Is he right?

Kissinger: You can always say there is some other war I would rather want to fight than the one I am in. What does it mean to fight the war in Pakistan? Should we use military power to control the tribal regions in Pakistan and to conduct military operations in a region which Britain failed to pacify in over 100 years of colonization? Should we use military force to prevent a radical take-over of the Pakistani government? Should we prevent the Pakistani state from splitting up into three or four ethnically based groups? I don't think we have the capacity to do that.
They know that it is going to happen

SPIEGEL: What about pushing for more military action against al-Qaida terrorists in the border regions with Afghanistan?

Kissinger: The audience listening to such exhortations believes that there is a master plan to bring another government there and that this democratic government will fight the tribal regions. In the short-term, this is an illusion.

SPIEGEL: What would be your advice for dealing with radical Islam and the governments in the region?

Talking to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should only come after painful sanctions, says Kissinger.

Talking to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should only come after painful sanctions, says Kissinger.
Kissinger: You cannot simultaneously attempt to overthrow the government of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan in the name of democracy and fight radical Islam. The democratization processes and the war against radical Islam have a different time frame.

SPIEGEL: Is it time for a strategic reassessment? You have experience with that: In the 1970s, Richard Nixon and you stunned the world by flying to China and sitting down with the Communist dictator Mao.

Kissinger: We did not wake up one morning and say it would be beautiful to talk to Mao. Nixon and I both believed we needed to bring China into the international system. We tried to connect objective reality with moral considerations. And objective reality was changed by the Sino-Soviet tensions and the consequent commitment by Beijing to coexistence.

SPIEGEL: Times have changed, but such moral considerations still exist. Should the new US president fly to Tehran and sit down with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

Kissinger: Some believe that the mere act of conversation will alter the tension. I believe that negotiations succeed only if they reflect an objective reality. The key issue with Iran is whether it sees itself as a cause or as a nation. If Iran wants to be a respected nation-state in the region without claiming religious or imperial domination, then we should be able to come to some form of understanding. But we will not reach that goal unless Iran realizes that this is not a historical opportunity to resurrect Persian dreams of glory.

SPIEGEL: And the Iranians need to feel Western pressure to come to that conclusion?

Kissinger: We need a mixture of pressure and incentives. We must realize that painless sanctions are a contradiction.

SPIEGEL: Sounds like the old game of carrots and sticks. You think the US president should meet with an Iranian leader only after painful sanctions?

Kissinger: You would never start with such a step. Nixon sat down with Mao three years after we had initial contact. I think a meeting with an Iranian president would be at the end of a process, not the very beginning.

SPIEGEL: But looking at legacy again, will historians look back one day and write: The Iraq adventure prevented the US from focusing on other strategic challenges -- such as the rapid rise of India and China? Is the Superpower distracted rather than over-stretched?

NEWSLETTER
Sign up for Spiegel Online's daily newsletter and get the best of Der Spiegel's and Spiegel Online's international coverage in your In- Box everyday.

Kissinger: I think we face three challenges currently: The disappearance of the nation-state; the rise of India and China; and, thirdly, the emergence of problems and challenges that cannot be solved by a single power, such as energy and the environment. We do not have the luxury to focus on one problem; we have to deal with all three of them or we won't succeed with any of them. The rise of Asia will be an enormous event. But we cannot say that we should therefore keep other challenges, such as the fight against radical Islam, in abeyance.

SPIEGEL: Is China still a partner or primarily a rival?

Kissinger: China has to be treated as a potential partner.
We must use all ingenuity to create a system in which the great states of Asia -- which really are not nation-states in the European sense but large conglomerates of cultures -- can participate. We have no choice.

SPIEGEL: Does the fact that "guided democracies" like Russia or China are currently more successful in economic terms undermine the attractiveness of Western-style democracy? Is that a new model that is becoming attractive for young people?

Kissinger: The problem of guided democracies is that they have great difficulties solving the problem of succession and of giving access to the widest possible pool of talent. China has come closer to solving that problem than any other undemocratic system. I believe that the democratic model is better and more durable for the future but not automatically. It depends on our vision and determination.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Kissinger, thank you very much for taking the time to speak with us.

Interview conducted by Gregor Peter Schmitz and Gabor Steingart in New York





Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 21 Feb 2008 23:30 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 23:27
Posts: 571
Location: On a roller-coaster.
Serb protesters attack U.S. embassy (CNN)
Quote:
Violence broke out Thursday as tens of thousands of Serbs protested Kosovo independence and reportedly set fire to the facade of the U.S. embassy in Belgrade, according to news agencies. Riot police fired tear gas at Serb rioters as protesters wearing masks broke into the embassy, according to the Associated Press and Reuters.

The embassy was reportedly closed and not staffed.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 00:03 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
OTOH, if we follow the "do the opposite of what the commies suggest" then India would support Kosovo's declaration. :lol:

Seriously, it seems like the Indian communists have the most legal mindset of all the political parties...is there a reason for that? The communists are certainly more dangerous politically with such a legal mindset.

CPM against GoI recognizing Kosovo


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 01:00 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Posts: 1900
Location: Trivandrum
Rye, other than what western media is telling us, it is not clear what sort of political dispensation the Kosovars have setup. Maybe Indian FS has a better idea and hopefully some amongst them (serving or retired) will write some good public analysis on the same. But from whatever I heard from some friends in that region, it is not happy hour over there. But then they are all old fashioned conservative serbs and croats. Not a good source for multi-angle info about kosovars :D

G Subramanium, Bommai vs Center is a landmark judgement, I agree. Infact I would say it prevented a lot of itchy fingers at the Center and the resulting centrifugal feelings in the states. If I recollect, the judgement focused on the Art 356 invocation being against the letter and spirit of the Constitution. So a secessionist party winning elections and coming to power in J&K declares independence. I dont think for even a minute that the parliament wont slap Prez rule in J&K with 3/3 majority? And why should Supreme court find the Prez rule under such circumstance as "unconstitutional" or the secession constitutional? :)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 02:51 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
hnair, Thanks. I see what you are saying -- I guess it all depends on one's view of the Indian politicians and their ability to pull together during such times.

However, the GoI should make up its mind as to whether it wants to strengthen the legal regimes of the "international community" (and if so stop setting precedents that can be used against us) or not (in which case, it does not matter if Kosovo is recognized or not). It just seems pretty dumb/stupid for the GoI to do all of the following: (a) support the creation of international legal regimes AND (b) assist such regimes to set precedents that are not helpful to India AND (c) not consider working outside the international system and to strike out on our own.


Of the GoI has decided on (c), then it seems okay to do (a) and (b).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 04:59 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57
Posts: 4915
Rye wrote:
OTOH, if we follow the "do the opposite of what the commies suggest" then India would support Kosovo's declaration. :lol:

Seriously, it seems like the Indian communists have the most legal mindset of all the political parties...is there a reason for that? The communists are certainly more dangerous politically with such a legal mindset.

CPM against GoI recognizing Kosovo


It's amazing that the Tasleema-baiting vote-bank-licking CPI-M would voice the idea of not recognizing the latest Islamic darling Kosovo. So it's not the rest of us who're aberrant by not wanting to recognize Kosovo, it's the CPI-M who're behaving contrary to their established nature.

If they want to turn over a new leaf, that's fine, but they need to reform their positions on a wide variety of issues.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 06:38 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 38018
The HK interview needs to be studied in depth.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 07:53 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Posts: 178
Location: USA
The Kosovo situation is interesting; could Russia use this to its advantage? It seems to me that Putin could make a powerplay here.

What if the Russians and Serbs orchestrated a separatist movement of their own, in response? Remember "Republica Sprnska"? That's the Serb-controlled portion of Bosnia which borders Serbia. This big chunk of Bosnia could declare its own indpenendence and intent to merge w/Serbia.

For that matter, the Serb-controlled part of Kosovo could do the exact same thing.

Russia could back this move by deploying some military forces to Serbia, and moving its carrier battle group (currently in the Meditteranean) closer to the Adriatic Sea.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 09:10 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51
Posts: 2338
The Emperor is wearing Albanian Clothes

http://chowk.com/articles/13628

So here’s the other question to NATO. If the ethnic Albanian Kosovars now oppress the ethnic Serbs as it will happen, will NATO bomb the ethnic Albanians like it did the Kosovars? Or will the EU police force be in there for the next two hundred years? Or what? It is very clear that it will not do so and more hypocrisy is very clear on part of the Western Powers. This is the reason why all these high sounding principles are frankly distasteful when you hear them from these politicians. Not surprising, specially when you remember that these politicians are the inheritors of the same tradition which has managed to carry out two world wars, innumerable genocides and centuries of warfare and colonisation. Fifty years of civilisation and soft EU power is too short a time for the hypocrisy and naked ambition to breed out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 09:58 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31
Posts: 13159
X-Post

Below are excerpts from the Economist Magazine. The Economist is the unofficial voice of the London based Bankers that control a majority of the world's media, natural resources and food supplies. The article reveals that the rise of the EU depends on the collapse of America and the use of Obama as their surrogate, to 'threaten massive nuclear retaliation' against Russia. The article clearly states that the EU intends to re-instate the Czar among other things. Some may say its just a speculative article. I say it is not. It appears to be the official EU blueprint for the next 50 years. In my view, it is obvious that any nation or person who stands in the way of this agenda will be dealt with accordingly. Vibrant nations of America, China, Russia and India, all economically and militarily powerful and Nationalist in nature, seem to be the greatest threats to the EU agenda.

The European Union at 100
Quote:
Is the best yet to come?


LIKE anybody nearing a 50th birthday, the European Union needs a makeover. But as this special report has suggested, the past two years' talk of a deep crisis is overblown. The union is functioning as well (or as badly) as it did before French and Dutch voters rejected the constitution.

The efforts by the Germans to use their stint in the EU president's chair to resuscitate the constitution may thus be as mistaken as the fatuous logo they have chosen (above). It is possible that an agreement may be reached on a minimalist treaty, but it depends on a string of heroic assumptions: that Mr Sarkozy wins the French presidency; that the Poles can be bullied into accepting institutional change; that some way can be found to buy off Britain; and that almost everybody can avoid referendums. Since at least one of these assumptions is likely to prove wrong, the odds of a successful deal on the constitution seem low.

Rather than harping on institutional reform that may never happen, the EU should concentrate on things it can achieve. That means putting forward sound policies in fields such as the environment; continuing the union's enlargement to take in the western Balkans and, ultimately, Turkey; and doing more work, both in Brussels and in national capitals, to engage citizens in the project. Above all, it means taking advantage of the present recovery to push through economic reforms.

The future of the EU is hard to predict. Over the next decade or so it could undergo a burst of further integration; it could fall apart into opposing camps of those who would go forward and those who would go back; or, perhaps most likely, it could just muddle through. So how might it look in 50 years' time?

A centenary celebration, 2057

The EU is celebrating its 100th birthday with quiet satisfaction. Predictions when it turned 50 that it was doomed to irrelevance in a world dominated by America, China and India proved wide of the mark. A turning-point was the bursting of America's housing bubble and the collapse of the dollar early in the presidency of Barack Obama in 2010. But even more crucial were Germany's and France's efforts later in that decade, under Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy respectively, to push through economic reforms.

These reforms produced a sharp fall in unemployment just as Europe began to enjoy a productivity spurt from the spread of information technology. The eventual result was a growing labour shortage, which was not resolved until the arrival of Turkey and Ukraine as full members in 2025. The accession soon afterwards of the first north African country, Morocco, helped to prolong Europe's boom.

Of course it was not all plain sailing. The great Italian crisis of 2015, when the government of Gianfranco Fini quit the single currency just as David Miliband's Britain was about to join, cast a long shadow. Yet although Italian bondholders took a hit from the subsequent default and Italy's economy was soon overtaken by Spain's, financial markets proved forgiving, and the government of Walter Veltroni managed to rejoin the euro fairly quickly. Since then no country has been tempted to repeat Italy's painful experiment.

The other cause for quiet satisfaction has been the EU's foreign policy. In the dangerous second decade of the century, when Vladimir Putin returned for a third term as Russian president and stood poised to invade Ukraine, it was the EU that pushed the Obama administration to threaten massive nuclear retaliation. The Ukraine crisis became a triumph for the EU foreign minister, Carl Bildt, prompting the decision to go for a further big round of enlargement. It was ironic that, less than a decade later, Russia itself lodged its first formal application for membership.

At the same time politicians in Brussels and Washington, grappling with the blocked Middle East peace process, had a eureka moment. EU membership had worked, eventually, in Cyprus, which was reunified in 2024; why not try it again? So it was that Israel and Palestine became the EU's 49th and 50th members.

The big challenge now is what to do about Russia. Its application has been pending for 15 years. Some say that it is too big, too poor and not European enough to join. But now that the tsar has been symbolically restored, Russia has an impeccably democratic government. A previous tsar saved Europe from Napoleon nearly 250 years ago. It would be apt to mark the anniversary by welcoming Russia back into the European fold.
[/b]


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 11:32 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 27 Apr 2003 11:31
Posts: 267
Sanjay M wrote:
Rye wrote:
OTOH, if we follow the "do the opposite of what the commies suggest" then India would support Kosovo's declaration. :lol:

Seriously, it seems like the Indian communists have the most legal mindset of all the political parties...is there a reason for that? The communists are certainly more dangerous politically with such a legal mindset.

CPM against GoI recognizing Kosovo


It's amazing that the Tasleema-baiting vote-bank-licking CPI-M would voice the idea of not recognizing the latest Islamic darling Kosovo. So it's not the rest of us who're aberrant by not wanting to recognize Kosovo, it's the CPI-M who're behaving contrary to their established nature.

If they want to turn over a new leaf, that's fine, but they need to reform their positions on a wide variety of issues.


What reform!! the CPI tail as usual is wagging in sync with the political ambitions of the CPC.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 15:57 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31
Posts: 7330
Typical position by the CPI(M) Chinese Puppets in India (Morons)...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 16:45 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 10566
Location: India
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... ade322.xml

The backlash is beginning.

UN condemns attack on US embassy in Serbia
By Alex Todorovic in Belgrade, and Harry de Quetteville in Pristina
Last Updated: 8:14am GMT 22/02/2008

Hundreds of Serbian protestors broke into the American embassy in Belgrade last night, ripping down the Stars and Stripes and setting the building ablaze.

In pictures: US embassy attacked
Western shops are targets for Serbian rioters
Leader: Kosovo's way ahead
One person died during the violence, which brought fierce condemnation of the authorities from Washington and the UN Security Council.

Masked demonstrators, urged by the government to gather to vent their opposition to Kosovo's declaration of independence, also attacked the British embassy and several others as police looked on.

Serb nationalists celebrate as flames rise from the US embassy after protests in Belgrade turned violent

The Security Council issued a statement which "condemned in the strongest terms the mob attacks against embassies in Belgrade, which have resulted in damage to embassy premises and have endangered diplomatic personnel."

The US state department said it held the Serbian authorities responsible for the "intolerable" acts, prompting a limited apology from Belgrade "regretting" the "isolated acts of violence."

Fires were started on two floors of the American embassy and the mob threw furniture from an office window as they were egged on by hardline elements in the crowd of 300,000 people. Flames quickly spread. A charred body later found inside the building is thought to be that of a protestor.

The building had been closed in advance of the protest and diplomatic staff were told to stay at home.

With the rioters turning their attention to the neighbouring Croatian embassy, the Belgrade government took action to quell the growing unrest and sent paramilitary police armed with teargas to expel the intruders from the two embassies. Firemen were then able to put out the blaze. The protesters fled into side streets where they fought running battles with the police.

The Turkish and Bosnian embassies also came under attack from protesters.

Earlier, the Serb prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, had denounced the new Kosovo government and its backers in America and the European Union.

"Kosovo belongs to Serbia," he said. "There is no force, no threat, no punishment that is strong enough and bad enough for any Serb to say differently."

The world's third-seeded men's tennis player, Novak Djokovic, addressed the rally by video link. The vast protest was echoed by others across the Balkans as incensed Serbs demonstrated from Bosnia to Kosovo itself.

Many Western embassies had closed their doors and warned their nationals to stay away from the protest.

Despite the attack on the US embassy, most demonstrators remained calm as darkness fell over Belgrade's parliament square, the rallying point ­where bells rang out and prayer vigils were held.

The seething crowds cheered as Mr Kostunica thanked Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, for Moscow's support.

Electronic signs displaying the message "Kosovo is Serbia" were flashed up in Russian, as well as in Spanish - a reference to Spain's refusal to recognise the new state amid its own fears about Catalonia and the Basque country's aspirations for nationhood.

The hardline nationalist Tomislav Nikolic, who narrowly lost Serbia's presidential election to the moderate Boris Tadic earlier this month, compared the struggle over Kosovo to the Second World War.

He said: "Hitler could not take it away from us and we will not rest until Kosovo is again under Serbia's control."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 19:50 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 26 Apr 2006 17:58
Posts: 405
hnair wrote:
Rye, other than what western media is telling us, it is not clear what sort of political dispensation the Kosovars have setup. Maybe Indian FS has a better idea and hopefully some amongst them (serving or retired) will write some good public analysis on the same. But from whatever I heard from some friends in that region, it is not happy hour over there. But then they are all old fashioned conservative serbs and croats. Not a good source for multi-angle info about kosovars :D

G Subramanium, Bommai vs Center is a landmark judgement, I agree. Infact I would say it prevented a lot of itchy fingers at the Center and the resulting centrifugal feelings in the states. If I recollect, the judgement focused on the Art 356 invocation being against the letter and spirit of the Constitution. So a secessionist party winning elections and coming to power in J&K declares independence. I dont think for even a minute that the parliament wont slap Prez rule in J&K with 3/3 majority? And why should Supreme court find the Prez rule under such circumstance as "unconstitutional" or the secession constitutional? :)


Based on how the secular politicians appease islamists in kerala,
Remember the unanimous vote to release Madani
I have no such hopes

The PDP has links with a section of the jihadists and Mehbooba has made plenty of secessionist speeches in public


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 20:22 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 19 Jan 2005 03:09
Posts: 626
HK's interview in Spiegel and Economist's EU in 2057 shows the diff. in Anglo-American approach towards a 21st century Empire with colonies in far off areas and EU's empire vision of one unified empire with clearly defined geographical boundaries .
Goal is same ie Emperor in new clothes and a new empire


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 20:32 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
I think Dr. HK is making another very interesting point -- that there is going to be an interval, where Europe is going to struggle with its identity because of islamism.

Quote:
Kissinger: I don't like the term "war on terror" because terror is a method, not a political movement. We are in a war against radical Islam that is trying to overthrow the moderate elements in the Islamic world and which is fundamentally challenging the secular structures of Western societies. All this is happening at a difficult period in European history.

SPIEGEL: Difficult why?

Kissinger: The major events in European history were conducted by nation-states which developed over several hundred years. There was never a question in the mind of European populations that the state was authorized to ask for sacrifices and that the citizens had a duty to carry it out. Now the structure of the nation-state has been given up to some considerable extent in Europe. And the capacity of governments to ask for sacrifices has diminished correspondingly.


The EU wants to become like India, in terms of a diverse whole, but it does not have the DNA for it, since all those countries have been at each other's throats for centuries. However, the kinder and gentler Europe offered that oppurtunity, but it has also diminished the nationalistic tendencies required for youth and citizens to want to contribute to the armed forces.

This means that there is going to be an interim period of flux where EU is going to have to tackle the islamist threat and eventually bring about EU as a union of diverse cultures -- however, there seems to be no unanimity in how these EU nations seek to handle the islamist threat -- there is no unity on this front it appears.

Quote:
Kissinger: The problem now is: Nation-states have not just given up part of their sovereignty to the European Union but also part of their vision for their own future. Their future is now tied to the European Union, and the EU has not yet achieved a vision and loyalty comparable to the nation-state. So, there is a vacuum between Europe's past and Europe's future.


This seems to say that HK's view that EU's ability to project power has seriously diminished with the formation of the EU. which, while creating a collective economic conglomeration with a much better bargaining power, resulted in a weaking of the militaries of countries in the EU, relative to how they were before the EU was formed.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 20:57 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06
Posts: 3351
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Rye wrote:
This seems to say that HK's view that EU's ability to project power has seriously diminished with the formation of the EU. which, while creating a collective economic conglomeration with a much better bargaining power, resulted in a weaking of the militaries of countries in the EU, relative to how they were before the EU was formed.
The lack of focus by a major power block, EU states, is an opportunity for other powers to fill the vaccum. The US, as the core state of the western block cannot do it all alone.

Is someone in Indian MEA, MoD, reading all this?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 21:13 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 23:27
Posts: 571
Location: On a roller-coaster.
Turkish military crosses border to hunt Kurdish rebels (MSNBC)
Quote:
Turkish troops launched a ground incursion across the border in pursuit of Kurdish rebels earlier on Friday.

The ground operation started after Turkish warplanes and artillery bombed suspected rebel targets on Thursday, the military said on its Web site. "After the successful bombing, a cross-border ground incursion backed by the Air Force started at 1900 (1700 GMT)" on Thursday, it said.

"The Turkish Armed Forces, which values Iraq's territorial integrity and its stability, will return as soon as planned goals are achieved," the statement said. "The executed operation will prevent the region from being a permanent and safe base for the terrorists and will contribute to Iraq's stability and internal peace."

Private NTV television said 10,000 troops were taking part in the cross-border offensive... :shock:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 21:19 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 38018
Rye and others also focus on the first challenge of the irrelevance of the nation-state. What he means is the Westhpahlian construct of nation states that transformed Europe is being subsumed. Its being replaced with supra-national entitites in some areas. If such a eqk happens in Europe the center of Modern political thought process, what will it do to the peripheral nation states? What we will see is reverting to large territories or confedarations like in Sci-Fi literature. But what will bind these confedaration together?

Europe was unified under Roman Catholic church thought process ie Roman Empier and Catholic Church universality. However the latter had its splits and reforms and is under threat due to depopulation. Can it re-become the engine for EU confedration? Perhaps not likely as is history is not too good. The Dark ages and Holocaust are ones that comes to mind. Then waht will these confedratiosn be based on - shared economic goals, ideas and culture?

Only India and China fit the latter criteria which brings HK to the next question of the rise of these somnambulant (some say socially engineered) giants. Not to bring in religions but both these are Hanuman like- they know not their strengths and need to be reminded of it constantly to perform to their potential.

And not how he brings in TSP because it is still the only fly in the ointment that can bring things crashing down. And HK has his legacy to think about for he fancies himslef to be he next Mitternich. In his last days he is trying to undo what he let loose in the Seventies to end the totalitarian threat.

There is only so much he can say in an open interviw. Am sure he told a lot of things in camera to the world leaders in Davos.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 21:19 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
Quote:
Is someone in Indian MEA, MoD, reading all this?


Maybe they are itching to sign up the nuke deal for this reason...sounds like a damn good reason.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 21:22 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 38018
Rye, To sign up now is the wrong thing for it is precisely for these reasons the deal will be offered on better terms. Read in conjunction with Rajaram's analysis of the post election scenario in TSP. To keep the regime stable India will be coerced into making some deals. The deal can be reconsidered at that time.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 22 Feb 2008 21:26 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31
Posts: 13159
ramana wrote:
Rye, To sign up now is the wrong thing for it is precisely for these reasons the deal will be offered on better terms. Read in conjunction with Rajaram's analysis of the post election scenario in TSP. To keep the regime stable India will be coerced into making some deals. The deal can be reconsidered at that time.

The deal offered to India will always be based on the geopolitical stability of Pakistan.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 03:41 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Posts: 1900
Location: Trivandrum
G Subramaniam wrote:

Based on how the secular politicians appease islamists in kerala,
Remember the unanimous vote to release Madani
I have no such hopes

The PDP has links with a section of the jihadists and Mehbooba has made plenty of secessionist speeches in public


G Subramaniam,

Not that this is relevant to J&K, "Madani the organizer" was checkmated a long time ago. But "Madani the martyr" was gradually gaining steam till recently. Particularly by deft manoueverings of his second in command, a chap called Poonthura Siraj. Consensus amongst Kerala policy makers (including politicians) seem to be that the previous Nayanar Govt's policy of "Let TN handle him" is giving dimnishing returns and his jailing is being used by others like NDF for propaganda purposes. Suddenly everybody jumped on the "Free Madani" bandwagon, thereby reducing NDF's efforts to just a joke. If bin Laden had seen the speeches given by Balakrishna Pillai of Kerala Congress in support of Madani's release, he would have been furiously taking down notes on "how to give a decent speech in defense of a lowlife". Coincidentally, I was strolling by Trivandrum Secratariat and witnessed the speech. And I can say that the 1000s of angry PDP bobbies who came to that rally went home happy at this "general support" (I was expecting a riot, considering how P. Siraj speaks). Of course Madani being let out of jail is also being used nowadays to score points. :)

However, a goofy and washed up Madani being equated with a national issue is trivializing the J&K issue and also the Indian political system's resolve. To me, same as Balakrishna Pillai's idiotic tirade served its purpose, Mebooba's secessionist tinged speeches too served its purpose nothing more nothing less. Did you observe the Indian Winter Games? Lovely slalom course. 8)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 11:22 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 10566
Location: India
Serbia shows its balls.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europ ... 86167.html

Serbia gives reminder of defiance under Milosevic
Leading article: Europe's pivotal role in averting a new round of Balkan bloodshed

Vesna Peric Zimonjic in Belgrade
Saturday, 23 February 2008


Serbia's relationship with the EU is in crisis after Belgrade's failure to intervene to halt violence sparked by the West's endorsement of Kosovo's independence.


After almost eight years of bridge-building with its European neighbours, Serbia this week witnessed scenes reminiscent of the Milosevic era. Anti-Western feelings have been stoked by the authorities with even American television shows pulled off state television. An attack by rioters on the US embassy on Thursday night left one person dead and has raised fears of further violence.

The US and UN condemned the events in Belgrade but the EU warned that a failure to clamp down on violence could harm Serbia's prospects of eventual EU membership and the promise of millions of euros in aid and free trade concessions. "These acts of violence lead nowhere and they cannot help anybody," said the EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. "Things will have to calm down before we can recuperate the climate that will allow for any contact to move on the Stabilisation and Association Agreement."

His rebuke came as EU defence ministers met in Slovenia to consider their reaction to the crisis and the risk of violence spreading to Serb parts of Bosnia. The EU commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn, said: "I appeal for calm in Serbia and in the wider region. We urge all Serbian politicians to call for restraint and avoid statements that could further inflame the situation."

But President Vladimir Putin yesterday issued a sharp warning to the West about the consequences of recognising Kosovo's independence. The comments, made during an informal meeting of leaders from ex-Soviet republics, were the strongest by the Russian leader since Sunday when Kosovo made its declaration of independence.

"The Kosovo precedent is a terrifying precedent," he said. He added that those who have recognised Kosovo "are miscalculating what they are doing. In the end, this is a stick with two ends and that other end will come back to knock them on the head someday."

The recent election of the pro-Western president Boris Tadic had bolstered hopes that Serbia would move to tighten ties, eventually leading to inclusion in the EU family, but the declaration of independence by Kosovo has revitalised the nationalist hardliners, including the Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.

After blocking the signing of an interim agreement with the EU earlier this month, he helped organise Thursday's rally of a 250,000 people. "[It] was magnificent and showed what the people of Serbia thought about Kosovo," said Mr Kostunica. "Most of all, Serbia's youth has sent a message that Serbia is for law, justice and freedom and that it rejects the bullying policy of Western countries."

But it was from this crowd that several hundred young men broke off to smash their way into the US embassy. Police yesterday confirmed that the charred remains of a young man had been found in the embassy, but did not reveal his identity, and said that they had arrested almost 200 people. Around 130 people were injured in the clashes, including 50 police officers.

Belgrade residents expressed anger at the government for not moving to curb the violence sooner. For many, the atmosphere is reminiscent of the anti-Western sentiment whipped up into a fury following the Nato bombing in 1999, when Mr Milosevic was trying to cling to power and prevent the collapse of what remained of Yugoslavia. Different nationalist groups are also distributing leaflets in the capital with calls for a boycott of international banks and imported goods in shopping malls all over Serbia.

"This is ridiculous," said analyst Misa Brkic. "More than 35,000 people in Belgrade work in international banks, which are mixed Serb and international companies. Self-isolation of such kind can bring nothing good."

This was a view echoed across the new border in Kosovo, by the Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci. In an interview with AP, he called on Serbs to reject old habits: "My message to Serbs in Serbia is to look forward and not to work with the mentality of the past, with the mentality of Milosevic's time."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 19:06 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06
Posts: 3351
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
ramana wrote:
What he means is the Westhpahlian construct of nation states that transformed Europe is being subsumed.
Ramana: I am not able to see that far but is it really that bad that the nation-state model itself is being invalidated?

Another way to see this is that the model itself is undergoing a change. While the rest of the world has adopted this concept of a nation state, the land where the concept was born is abandoning it.

In this context, you are right, the nation state concept is being challenged in Europe, but is that the case in other places too? E.g: Is it likely, we will see and amalgamation of states in the ME or the sub continent in let us say 100-200 years?

Another possiblity to consider is that the EU, while going through its challenges of transforming from a strict nation state model to a super state model - it is possible, over time for EU to become a new nation state.

An EU along the lines of India and China. An EU, where the underlying bond is the christian ethos and race? There is a case to be made for the unification of catholics and protestents at a working level, if not in theology. Somewhat akin to the American experience. De population is a challenge, however not sure if it is a definite long term trend.

But, if EU continues to stumble, as they are now, then their fall is destined and a great opportunity for others.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 19:26 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 31 Jul 2005 20:19
Posts: 762
Location: Old Lal Masjid @BRFATA (*Renovation*)
Australia, U.S. affirm alliance
Sat Feb 23, 2008 2:43am EST

Quote:
CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australia and the United States reaffirmed their strong alliance on Saturday, saying their security and defense partnership would not change with the election of Canberra's new government and plans for a partial withdrawal from Iraq.

The foreign and defense ministers of both countries sought to play down differences over Iraq, while on Afghanistan both sides struck the same chord, calling on Europe to dedicate more resources to the fight.

Australia also appeared ready to act as a bridge between Beijing and Washington, as Canberra's foreign minister urged both sides to have a more open dialogue and called on China for more transparency in its activities.

"The alliance between Australia and the United States is fundamental to Australia's defense, security and strategic arrangements," Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told reporters after the annual Australia-United States ministerial consultations.

"The alliance relationship transcends a Labor or Liberal government here, or a Democrat or Republican administration in the United States," he said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte are the highest ranking Bush administration officials to visit since Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's centre-left Labor Party won power. U.S. officials had looked for Australia to renew its commitment to their alliance during Saturday's session.

They also sought to press Australia for an assessment of China's growing strategic and economic role in the region. Some officials have said they hoped Rudd, a former diplomat with China expertise, would act as a bridge between China and the West.

But other officials and some security experts questioned what impact China's growing economic links to Australia might have on Canberra's commitment to partnership with Washington. China is on the verge of replacing Japan as Australia's top trading partner, due to China's demand for Australia's mineral resources.

Smith, however, said the United States and Japan remained Australia's key strategic allies.

"We can have a very good economic relationship with China which doesn't impact on the United States," he said.

COMBAT ROLES

The Rudd government has already broken with the Bush administration on Iraq, promising to pull 550 of its 1,500 troops out. The remaining force will begin to transition to non-combat roles to help build Iraqi capabilities, Smith said.

He said Australia would also look to increase its non-military support to Afghanistan to help build schools and roads and improve Afghanistan's police and judiciary.

But Australia had no plans to increase its force of about 1,000 troops in Afghanistan, including engineers and special forces commandos who are fighting in one of the more restive areas of that war zone.

"We are currently giving consideration to the capacity building and development assistance in relation to Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

The ministers also discussed missile defense and the possibility of joint defense system with the United States, something considered by the previous John Howard government. defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon would not offer details of those discussions.

But he said Australia had noted America's successful shoot-down of a defunct U.S. spy satellite last week, a mission seen by the Pentagon as proving the capability of its limited missile defense system.

"I can say to our American friends and in particular to Secretary Gates that we watched their activity in terms of bringing down the satellite with great interest," Fitzgibbon said.

"Bob, nice shot," he told to Gates.


Till the next time Kangaroo lectures India.. :roll:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 21:23 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 38018
ShauryaT wrote:
ramana wrote:
What he means is the Westhpahlian construct of nation states that transformed Europe is being subsumed.
Ramana: I am not able to see that far but is it really that bad that the nation-state model itself is being invalidated?

Another way to see this is that the model itself is undergoing a change. While the rest of the world has adopted this concept of a nation state, the land where the concept was born is abandoning it.

In this context, you are right, the nation state concept is being challenged in Europe, but is that the case in other places too? E.g: Is it likely, we will see and amalgamation of states in the ME or the sub continent in let us say 100-200 years?

Another possiblity to consider is that the EU, while going through its challenges of transforming from a strict nation state model to a super state model - it is possible, over time for EU to become a new nation state.

An EU along the lines of India and China. An EU, where the underlying bond is the christian ethos and race? There is a case to be made for the unification of catholics and protestents at a working level, if not in theology. Somewhat akin to the American experience. De population is a challenge, however not sure if it is a definite long term trend.

But, if EU continues to stumble, as they are now, then their fall is destined and a great opportunity for others.


ShauryaT, Thanks for following my ramblings. Yes the Westphalian construct is being challenged. there are two parts to it. One is nation state borders are inviolable. The other is regardless of the faith of the head of the state, the people are free to practice their own faith(s). This is what ended the religious wars of Europe. Well you saw that the first part is crumbling with all those attacks in Balkans and the EU formation. Kosovo is a good example of the second part going bad. Eritrea and East Timor are other examples. So the virus is spreading. And the Ummah and Caliphate are examples on non-Westphalian constructs that are being revived. i am only a trend watcher nothing else.
BTW, Benedict is working on healing the rifts in the Church- Catholic vs Eastern Orthodox, Catholic vs Protestant. The hold outs are Roman Catholics vs Baptists.
the Re-Arabisation of Islam is another trend we are seeing being recognized as fundamentalism leading to Islamic terrorism.

Yes things are moving on a slow roll and when critical mass builds up there will be a tsunami and the world as we know will be different.
Thats what HK is also saying.

What is intriguing is in his Speigel interview he brings in India and China and throws in TSP. Why? BTW he no stranger to Germany. Right after WWII he was one of the occupying forces principal brains even though he was only an enlisted man. Read his bio. He is intimately connected to germany as we know it now.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 22:31 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57
Posts: 4915
Europe is fighting to reassert itself, and reshape the world order to meet its needs. This is a main component of what Atlanticism is all about. As part of this, they will need to reshape the world's other major powers/superpowers as well.

Consider that the Cold War was a mere temporary interruption of the wider era of Europeans exercising hegemony over the world. The ColdWar was mere coitus interruptus, and now that this interruption is over, they can resume their activity.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 22:34 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
Ramana wrote:
Quote:
the first challenge of the irrelevance of the nation-state.


Ramana, That seems to presume a conflict-free world, no? For example, in such a world, would a working person be free of the responsibility of paying taxes? IF so, who will pay the local police man and the local soldier? Real-world issues of governance are not going to be gone, which means the associated infrastructure would be a necessity, though the "owning company" (the nation state) can change hands....that sounds like old action classic "The Return of the Son of Colonialism".


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 22:45 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 08 Mar 2006 22:52
Posts: 142
Rye, I'm not so sure. I had mentioned a few years ago that the sovereign nation-state concept will totally die out in about 40-50 years - but it seems it may happen even earlier than that.

The treaty of Westphalia imposed a new world order that lasted until about 40-50 years ago, resulted in two bloody world wars, and is unfolding and dying. We're back to the world as it was was before that - a backpedal of 400 years or so, if you will.

In essence, the modern nation state concept was brutal and bloody and when imposed on culturally assimilated people like Indians and Chinese - it left a trail of destruction between them. These countries are still grappling with this wierd concept. And we all know what was done to Japan and India to make them submit to this concept.

The globalization we see today is basically the same one we had prior to the 1600s, but only with modern technology accelerating things, and precipitating stronger resistance. An example in point - the Great Firewall of China.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 22:55 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31
Posts: 13159
ShauryaT wrote:
ramana wrote:
What he means is the Westhpahlian construct of nation states that transformed Europe is being subsumed.
Ramana: I am not able to see that far but is it really that bad that the nation-state model itself is being invalidated?

Another way to see this is that the model itself is undergoing a change. While the rest of the world has adopted this concept of a nation state, the land where the concept was born is abandoning it.

In this context, you are right, the nation state concept is being challenged in Europe, but is that the case in other places too? E.g: Is it likely, we will see and amalgamation of states in the ME or the sub continent in let us say 100-200 years?

Another possiblity to consider is that the EU, while going through its challenges of transforming from a strict nation state model to a super state model - it is possible, over time for EU to become a new nation state
.

An EU along the lines of India and China. An EU, where the underlying bond is the christian ethos and race? There is a case to be made for the unification of catholics and protestents at a working level, if not in theology. Somewhat akin to the American experience. De population is a challenge, however not sure if it is a definite long term trend.

But, if EU continues to stumble, as they are now, then their fall is destined and a great opportunity for others.


All good questions. THe western concept of nation state is based on homogeneous social groups which form a nation and which will carve out a state. EU has got a long way before they feel the civilizational identity of one nation.
The semetic ethos are exclusive and your idea of different denominations working together will not work in EU.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 22:58 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31
Posts: 13159
ramana wrote:

What is intriguing is in his Speigel interview he brings in India and China and throws in TSP. Why? BTW he no stranger to Germany. Right after WWII he was one of the occupying forces principal brains even though he was only an enlisted man. Read his bio. He is intimately connected to germany as we know it now.


Kissinger is German Jew by origin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 23:04 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57
Posts: 4915
Turkey is currently invading Kurdish Northern Iraq, in the hopes of destroying PKK, but to me it looks like the potential for an Afghan-style quagmire. The Russians have an age-old historical antagonism with Turkey, and despite their recent patching of the relationship, I would point out that events like the recognition of Independent Kosovo may have the potential to backslide Russo-Turkish relations. In the event that antagonism re-emerges between the 2 countries, then Kurdish forces would be a natural Russian ally.
Likewise, if Turkey were to ever push for wider recognition of Northern Cyprus, the Greeks too could step up support to the Kurds.


Take a look at this

Future Map of the Middle East

I think this map makes absolute sense --including the part about Free Balochistan.

There are more Kurds than there are Kosovars. The Kurdish people have at least as much right to sovereignty and independence.
If Russia right now is furious and fuming over the recognition to Kosovo, they need to recognize that Kurdistan is the obvious choice for retaliation.

Don't get mad. Get even.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 23:12 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 05 Aug 2001 11:31
Posts: 1184
That map of how the ME should look is a convenient from the US POV but not from the Indian POV because the chokehold of the energy line to India will be held by Pakjabis who the Paki army (if they control Sindh). From the Indian POV, independence of Sindh is also essential, as it will allow countries to cooperate in an energy project that can probably raise the standard of living of the Balochis and Sindhis and the Afghans. But this eventuality will only happen if the US loses grip of Pakistan, which is not about to happen any time soon --- lot of baksheesh to be handed over to the pakis generously by the "international community".

Or maybe the economics of tankers or a under sea pipeline between balochistan and India would be feasible to bypass Sindh under the control of the PA.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 23:50 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57
Posts: 4915
I like this map. I'll make it my wallpaper. ;)

Pakjabis would be a skinny sliver compared to their former selves, and imho by that time they would be nuke-nude. Besides, they'd also have plenty of other hostile neighbors to keep them focused on their other borders.
I agree though that it would be nice to have an independent Sindh to keep Pakjab totally cut off and prostrate. We would re-absorb POK, to cut China off from all parts of former Pak and the Arabian Sea.

India could finance the construction of a pipeline to us through Afghanistan, Balochistan, and Sindh. A pipeline to us through Afghanistan & Kashmir would be too exposed to China.

Anyway, regarding Kurdistan, I feel that Russia should not merely swallow its anger over Kosovo in mere bitter impotence. They need to fight back, so that their entire Western border is not turned wholly to their disadvantage. By fighting back, they can avoid worse trouble down the road. (India too would be a slight beneficiary, since a Western-antagonized Moscow invariably leans on Beijing for quid-pro-quo support, which causes us problems.)

Kurdistan is an obvious tipping point for Russia to strike back, and re-tilt the balance back in its own favour.
The Russians would be fools to pass up on the opportunity. (Maybe they are.)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 23 Feb 2008 23:57 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 25 Jun 1999 11:31
Posts: 1818
What makes people think that this cartographic exercise will stop at India's borders.

There is a variation of that map which shows J&K as a separate state.

Most likely a similar undertaking will be launched to seaparate the seven sisters in the NE as well.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 24 Feb 2008 00:06 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57
Posts: 4915
Because US power projection is finite and not infinite. Their soft power would not be able to dent China's hard power, for example. By crumbling all the states around China, then it would set the stage for Chinese dominance over the entire eastern half of Eurasia.

I don't think the US wants to give China a freebie, to install them on the throne of global dominance.
The main target here, is the Islamist threat, and the swamp they are spreading through. Better to divide up the swamp, and compartmentalize the problem. Local ethnic tendencies can then subsume the broader Islamist-ummah tendencies.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: 24 Feb 2008 00:43 
Offline
Forum Moderator

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 38018
Its not like anyone wants to crown PRC. it is going to crown itself just by its sheer size. The Westphalian state theory was good for Western Europe to emerge out of their religious wars. However in non Western societies it has led to much violence which is still prevalent.

I am not the only one saying its on its last legs. HK is also saying it.


Acharya I think your view about his origins while true is not germane to the discussion. HK knows that a stable Germany is essential to the viability of EU.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 3839 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 96  Next

All times are UTC + 5:30 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: devesh, Google [Bot], udaym, UlanBatori, yvijay and 28 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group