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PostPosted: 09 Jun 2015 21:06 
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Please continue here.

Previous discussion:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3850&start=4040


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PostPosted: 10 Jun 2015 12:44 
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Ramana Saar,
It should be called Geo-Politics/Geo-Economics thread. All through history from antiquity to present, economics have determined political actions. Some actions have failed due to geography but without the economics backing the action, constraints could be/have been overcome. Sanjaya Baru in one of his talks also says this. There are many who would also agree.


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PostPosted: 10 Jun 2015 13:10 
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OK, panduranghari, thread title is now changed.


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PostPosted: 10 Jun 2015 16:56 
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Thanks SSridhar ji.

Geo Economics of Delhi Declaration

Quote:
The objective of this partnership is India’s rise, which the US now views as a global good, given India’s commitment to a rules-based global economic and security architecture.

The proof of the pudding is, of course, in the eating and that proof will have to be demonstrated through increased US investment in India and Indian partnership with the US on issues such as climate change and intellectual property rights and investment protection. But these rules, as both countries recognise, would facilitate India’s development, and not thwart it.

While the strategic vision and the joint statement have much more in them, and substantial political commitments have been made on both sides, it is not the geopolitics of the new vision that is as significant as the geo-economics. India’s economic rise, the US has concluded, needs to be facilitated and the US has committed itself to it. For India’s part, Prime Minister Modi has clearly recognised that a strong US–India relationship is the best way of ensuring that India emerges as one of the poles of a multipolar world.


A slightly dated article but very relevant

link
Quote:
The term geo-economics first came into prominence after the end of the cold war. It denotes interconnectivity of the economic and commercial opportunities, broader political and international relations, and pursuit by a country of its strategic interests, including through military capabilities. This approach is rooted in the growing importance of economic factors in international relations.

The geo-economics approach thus emphasises the importance of integrating India’s economic diplomacy in its multi-faceted relations with different countries and regions in the context of a rapidly changing world order.

This requires strategic thinking with an occasion or an event specific flexible tactics. There should be coordination within ministries; among different levels of the government; and between the government, businesses, universities, and think tanks, and the media to expand India’s economic and strategic space globally.

There are several strong reasons for India’s public, private, and research organisations to acquire proficiency in geo-economics approach.

First, as India continues to rapidly integrate with the world economy, global developments increasingly impinge on India’s core economic and strategic interests.

Second, while India remains a strong supporter of multilateral trade regime through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), it has extensively pursued bilateral regional trade and broader economic cooperation agreements. These agreements bring greater complexity to customs and economic administration. Expertise in geo-economics approach could help in realising the potential benefits of these agreements, while helping to ensure that they are implemented in the intended manner, and do not adversely impact on India’s interests.

Third, India needs to align interest of its 30 million diaspora spread globally with its rise as a major country.

Fourth, size and complexity of India’s economy is growing. The nominal GDP for 2010-11 is estimated at $1600 billion. At nominal growth of 12%, India’s GDP will be $3200 billion by 2016-17; and $6400 billion by 2022-23. Moreover, technological, knowledge, and resource (including energy) intensity of economic activities is increasing.
India needs to focus on challenges arising from global resource scarcity, and how to obtain future supplies with high degree of reliability at competitive prices. Proficiency in geo-economics approach could permit India to benefit from rapidly forming partnerships with key importing countries like Japan, to help diversify their global risks in obtaining the requisite supply.

Fifth, the emergence of a multi-polar world captured in G-0 (no global leader) on the one hand and in G-20 involving many powers, has also increased the importance of geo-economics.

Rapid and sustained growth in China, Brazil and other middle income countries with relatively large populations, combined with projected slower growth in industrial countries that have been impacted severely by the 2008 global economic crisis, is creating many challenges and opportunities for India where proficiency in geo-economics approach can be useful.

Sixth, there are emerging cross-cutting global issues. These include climate change; terrorism; cyber-warfare; pandemics; rush to secure energy and resource supplies; and difficulties in sustaining multi-lateral focus in trade and on economic issues through the completion of the Doha round, is creating much more complex environment, in which skills in geo-economics will be critical.

There are several measures to enhance India’s proficiency in geo-economics which merit consideration. The objective should be to develop a policy community which can contribute to high quality sophisticated debates on geo-economics issues relevant for India.

First, there needs to be much greater awareness of the importance of geo-economics approach within the government.
Second, key economic, international relations, and defense related research centers and think tanks should develop expertise in geo-economics. In addition to recruiting researchers, these organisations can sponsor young scholars to peruse post graduate degrees in geo-economics in major universities and think tanks abroad.

Third, consideration could be given to introducing geo-economics courses in political science, international relations, and business and management programmes.


The above analysis suggests that the geo-economic approach to analysing India’s diplomacy in a rapidly changing world order merits strong consideration.


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PostPosted: 11 Jun 2015 15:34 
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The world's most secretive powerbrokers annual meet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... scuss.html
Quote:
Bilderberg: What will Masters of the Universe discuss?

As the Bilderberg meeting opens in Austria, here is a look at what is on the agenda of the world's most secretive meeting.

By Harriet Alexander
11 Jun 2015

It is a conference like no other. There is no desired outcome, no minutes are taken and no report is written. Furthermore, no resolutions are proposed, no votes are taken, and no policy statements are issued.

And yet it is perhaps the most influential annual gathering in the world.

On Thursday around 140 people will gather in Telfs-Buchen, a small town in the Austrian Alps, just outside Innsbruck. Among them are spy chiefs, military leaders, bankers, politicians and a retired queen.

Some people are regular attendees: Eric Schmidt, the Google chairman; George Osborne, the British chancellor; Robert Zoellick, chairman of Goldman Sachs' board of international advisers; John Sawers, the former head of MI6; and Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State. Others are new additions this year: Niall Ferguson, the historian; Ursula von der Leyen, the German defence minister; Michael O'Leary, the Ryanair chief executive.

While Mr O'Leary's presence among such titans may seem strange, it makes sense when you consider that topics for discussion include globalisation and "current economic issues".

Another key subject is terrorism – plus the threat from chemical weapons. Newcomers such as Shiraz Maher, a radicalisation expert from King's College London, and Gilles Kepel, a French specialist in Islam and the contemporary Arab world, will have been invited for their expertise in such areas.


The Interalpen-Hotel Tirol, venue of the Bilderberg conference (Getty Images)

Some items on the 15-point agenda are simply countries: Greece, Iran, the US, the UK.

The American election is up for discussion, as is Nato – the invitation this year of a number of Turkish politicians and newspaper columnists is a new development, reflecting the increasing clout of the country and importance for both Nato and the fight against terrorism.

It is notable how the agenda changes to reflect the priorities of the host countries. At last year's meeting, in Copenhagen, participants were not given a list of topics but instead a series of questions: "How special is the relationship in intelligence sharing?" and "Does privacy exist?"

The 2013 meeting in the UK firmly prioritised British issues: Jobs, entitlement and debt was one topic; politics of the European Union and challenges of Africa another.

The organisers state that: "participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s) nor of any other participant may be revealed."

Founded in 1954 by Prince Berhnard – father of the former queen of the Netherlands, Princess Beatrix – the organisers say the conference is designed to foster dialogue between Europe and North America, with between 120-150 political leaders and experts from industry, finance, academia and the media attending.

Gerald Ford, the former US president, said in 1965 that "you don’t really belong to the organisation, one gets an invitation from the Prince."

When the meeting was held in the UK, in 2013, The Telegraph tried to find out how the discussion went – and failed to find an answer.

The key topics for discussion this year include:


1 Artificial Intelligence
2 Cybersecurity
3 Chemical Weapons Threats
4 Current Economic Issues
5 European Strategy
6 Globalisation
7 Greece
8 Iran
9 Middle East
10 Nato
11 Russia
12 Terrorism
13 United Kingdom
14 USA
15 US


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PostPosted: 11 Jun 2015 17:40 
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Eh, if people know about it, its not so secretive.


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PostPosted: 12 Jun 2015 15:18 
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ORF showing AP as part of China and J&K as disputed....

Image


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PostPosted: 12 Jun 2015 15:50 
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Panduranghari ji,

Are there any studies/estimates on the net worth of 30million strong diaspora?

I remember (referencing) a news article that estimated NRI wealth in silicon valley at $250B.

Modi needs to tap this diaspora power for his FDI goals.


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PostPosted: 14 Jun 2015 11:35 
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Had a brainwave a while back while reading one of Stratfor's articles: Do those guys lurk in the BRF forums?

Heres a qn to the earlier / older posters [I am a much newer entrant here and as mentioned earlier, I happened upon the forum, serendipitously, while searching for a base rate for one of my missions]

More to the point:

Is there some credible evidence / hints that policies are influenced because of the discussions here? Or say IC/IA/serious think tanks lurk here to glean insights? [I remember reading somewhere here that Paki lurkers / journos etc follow and its been made out because of the words / thoughts etc etc. Someone references to C Fairs writings too a while back]

It might be helpful to track and keep an open mind, IMHO. Every little bit helps, I assume? If there are people out there who are *potentially* taking us seriously (though we don't know about it?), it makes the effort even more worth ones while.

--
What led me to the brainwave : I saw a few paras / thoughts / ideas which sounded a bit like what we had been discussing in the W Asia Thread / ME topic in the last few wks / months.


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PostPosted: 14 Jun 2015 15:37 
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RamaY wrote:
Panduranghari ji,

Are there any studies/estimates on the net worth of 30million strong diaspora?

I remember (referencing) a news article that estimated NRI wealth in silicon valley at $250B.

Modi needs to tap this diaspora power for his FDI goals.


RamaY ji,

I have looked at this aspect from my uneducated perspective. I have not been very successful. I have a few reasons why quantifying it is wrong. The tool used to measure the 'net worth' is inevitably US dollar. This makes the valuation not stand over a period of time. The valuation can be understood only if we can have a good benchmark.

This may sound unfair to you my fellow, NRI, but India already has more than enough capital and wealth to do 'whatever' it needs. Including every pet project that you or I have. India does not NEED foreign diaspora to achieve its goals. though if foreign diaspora contribute to Indias growth, they benefit a lot more- mainly by being a political force who has access to immense capital reserves.


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PostPosted: 14 Jun 2015 23:16 
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panduranghari wrote:

This may sound unfair to you my fellow, NRI, but India already has more than enough capital and wealth to do 'whatever' it needs. Including every pet project that you or I have. India does not NEED foreign diaspora to achieve its goals. though if foreign diaspora contribute to Indias growth, they benefit a lot more- mainly by being a political force who has access to immense capital reserves.

India will need the NRIs for national strategic reasons


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PostPosted: 15 Jun 2015 02:36 
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panduranghari wrote:
RamaY wrote:
Panduranghari ji,

Are there any studies/estimates on the net worth of 30million strong diaspora?

I remember (referencing) a news article that estimated NRI wealth in silicon valley at $250B.

Modi needs to tap this diaspora power for his FDI goals.


RamaY ji,

I have looked at this aspect from my uneducated perspective. I have not been very successful. I have a few reasons why quantifying it is wrong. The tool used to measure the 'net worth' is inevitably US dollar. This makes the valuation not stand over a period of time. The valuation can be understood only if we can have a good benchmark.

This may sound unfair to you my fellow, NRI, but India already has more than enough capital and wealth to do 'whatever' it needs. Including every pet project that you or I have. India does not NEED foreign diaspora to achieve its goals. though if foreign diaspora contribute to Indias growth, they benefit a lot more- mainly by being a political force who has access to immense capital reserves.


+1 saar. The highlighted section is what lead me to write Alternative Budget Scenarios.

NRIs, IMHO, can be our (dharmic) Forex Reserves if properly approached.


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PostPosted: 15 Jun 2015 05:09 
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Geopolitics is a confluence of political, geographical, historical and sociological including economics trends. We need to study/examine from viewpoint of imperial (Anglo-Saxon), super power (US, Russia and China), contemporary geopolitics, new environmental themes and multiple resistances which provide the under tow of political life in the world.
And all this from Indian point of view or else why on Bharat Rakshak?


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PostPosted: 15 Jun 2015 09:39 
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People's Daily warns against colour revolutions, blames 'spread of Western ideology

Quote:
he Communist Party’s mouthpiece yesterday filled its page five with five articles written by scholars exploring the roots of colour revolutions, their negative impacts, and how China might learn from the experience of those nations affected.

The term came into common usage to describe movements in the former Soviet Union and the Balkans during the early 2000s, though it has since been used to refer to events in the Middle East and Ukraine. Generally, the movements use nonviolent resistance against authoritarian governments and use colours or flowers as their symbols.

One of the articles in People’s Daily was written by Xu Songwen, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He said colour revolutions were most likely in nations that had a combination of slow economic development, high unemployment, and corruption.

“The one non-neglectable factor [in the development of] colour revolutions in these countries is the spreading of Western ideology, especially from the US,” Xu wrote.


In China, right now on 3 points, china score is 1-1/2.
Economic development - Half point.
High unemployment - Right now things are okay.
Corruption - Full point.

If there is any further (global factors) economic slowdown, then unemployment will really worsen.

Regarding Western ideology. The communism had robed China its soul. They have set aside Confucianism-Buddhism (no-religion policy of communists), making China a soft target for Westernism-Christianity.

To coverup falling growth and falling RE prices, CPC has thrown a new candy to its citizens, i.e. "stock markets," so the markets are making new highs every month. Let see, how long this gimmick lasts. If this experiment fails (already gold hoarding has failed), then "feel good factor" evaporates from China, then I will not be surprised if middle kingdom finds, China is one single entity, but multiple entities and Huns are just one among them.


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PostPosted: 15 Jun 2015 10:47 
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Italy threatens to ‘inflict wounds’ on EU if no ‘solidarity’ in migrant crisis reached

Quote:
Rome has warned of retaliatory measures unless the EU changes its asylum policies to make them more in “solidarity” with Italy, which continues to struggle with an enormous inflow of mostly North African migrants.

“If the European Council chooses solidarity, then good. If it doesn’t, we have a Plan B ready but that would be a wound inflicted on Europe,” Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said, without elaborating on the details.

Italy which has been bearing the brunt of North African refugees is calling on Brussels to amend the Dublin regulations, which assign most asylum seekers to their port of entry in the EU. The states have yet to reach a consensus on a migrant distribution plan, which seeks to relocate some 24,000 refugees across the 28-member countries.


Call it Karma (ultimate Divine law, that monitors all actions and rebalances them). They sent a snake to India to destroy it demographic change. Now, Seat of Pope is under threat of demographic change.


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PostPosted: 18 Jun 2015 16:23 
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Not sure where to post this:
India's FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) statistics, Dept. of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India:
http://dipp.nic.in/English/Publications ... stics.aspx

If there is a thread on FDI, perhaps this should be put in the first post, just like the core Paki. info is in the first post of the STFUP thread.


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PostPosted: 16 Jul 2015 10:03 
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Japan Lower House Passes Bills to Expand Nation’s Military Role

- Now Japan can export its military tech and goodies to other nations.
- Japan can unshackle the restrictions put on persons and weapons (numerical) of its own armed forces.

I hope China stops piggybacks Pakis in many aspects (terrorism veto, NSG membership for Pakis, etc).


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PostPosted: 28 Jul 2015 13:06 
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Official: China stock crash is U.S. economic warfare - Washington Times

Quote:
And anybody who doesn’t believe such a thing is definitely a traitor to the Chinese nation ready to betray the Chinese Communist Party, insisted Lin Zuoming, who made those claims in a July 17 interview with China Aviation News. The interview was subsequently carried by most of China’s major news outlets.

Mr. Lin’s words should not be taken lightly as they reflect an official Chinese view of the stock market woes. Mr. Lin is a member of the Communist Party’s Central Committee and president and CEO of China’s largest aerospace and defense conglomerate, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China. AVIC, which makes virtually all of China’s military aircraft from the J-series aircraft to Zhi-series attack helicopters, is the equivalent of Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman all rolled into one.
.......

“It is evident, without any doubt,” Mr. Lin said in the interview, “that we are facing an economic war … [whose objective] is to lure the Chinese masses into doubting the Chinese government … [and] to topple the Chinese Communist Party’s ruling position, ultimately leading to the total collapse of China’s economy.
Therefore, the economic war ignited in the A Share sector of the stock market is directly targeted at our five-starred red flag.”


Actually the Chinese govt are miserably failing in providing economic freedom to its citizens. Chinese citizens have lost money
- Real estate.
- Now Gold and in stock markets.

Next logical step would be to spread and grew rumors that Coastal Hans are scamming the interior Chinese, and then have fun.

Soviet cat was skinned by perestroika and glasnost, and Chinese cat will be skinned by Economic factors like real estate, gold and stock markets.


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 05:48 
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X-Post...
ramana wrote:
nachiket wrote:
{quote="vayu tuvan"}Jeb bush or trump? Prolly the same or slightly better, imho. Why assume that Hillary will win? That us far from given.{/quote}

It doesn't matter. Whoever comes in, the paki-pasand SD will educate them appropriately about how aiding and supporting pakis is the best approach.



This is where geo-politics helps to understand.

After Ottoman empire was defeated and re-arranged the British created a system of three regional power balances to manage and prevent any natural power to emerge between Mediterranean to Indus.

Also addresses the historical scourge of Europe: invasions from Asia.

First Iraq was created to balance Iran.

Next Pakistan to balance India

Then Israel to balance the Arabs.

Note: All three creations are small populations to balance larger populations. Easy to sustain them.

End of Cold War and collapse of FSU saw:

Arab-Israel balance collapse with Israel emerging powerful.

1998 nuke tests and post 9/11 decade saw Pakistan on verge of collapse.

Two Gulf wars destroyed Iraq with Iran emerging unchecked.

So except in Israel-Arab balance the natural powers have prevailed in last thirty years.
And there is power vacuum developing in West Asia.

Braudel wrote " India is a pendulum that swings between East and West Asia"

Power vacuum in West Asia means India will swing towards West Asia a reversal of last millennium.

Yet US the successor to Anglo-Saxongiri wants to divert India towards East and away from the West Asia.

Hence TSP is a supreme national interest for them to prevent India to swing towards West Asia and wipe out the historical scourge.


Yet historical forces predict TSP will fail to prevent the westward ho of India.


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 05:54 
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So with re-emergence of Iran lets see what is happening?

Turkey will have to become a West Asian power as its historical role from Ottoman-Safavid rivalry.

However modern Turkey has ~ 40-50% Kurds by population and Iran ~5-10% Kurds.

So Iran could and would support an independent Kurdistan that cuts Turkey to size.

Kurdistan also impacts the Arab-Persian balance as currently its still in Iraq.

The other balancer that needs to teeter is TSP.

Here again Baluchistan is a key piece that needs to be taken out.

The Khanate of Kalat was invaded by TSP soon after 1947 to merge Kalat into Pakistan.


So Kurdistan and Baluchistan are two stans for stability.


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 06:03 
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ramana wrote:
However modern Turkey has ~ 40-50% Kurds by population and Iran ~5-10% Kurds.
.

Acc. to the CIA world factbook, Kurds are 18% of Turkish population. Other sources claim upto 25%, but I haven't seen the 40-50% figure anywhere.


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 09:21 
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wiki says 20% in Turkey.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds

I added Iraq numbers for Kurdistan

See also

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-a- ... ion-2014-6


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 09:58 
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Kurds hatred for Iranian Mullahs is more than they have for Turks. They are patiently waiting for becoming majority in Turkey in next 20 years. The compete, fight and cooperate with Turks and feel at ease in dealing with them. BTW Kurds are as eager as Balochi to have deeper interaction with GOI.Doval ji paid visit to Erbil few months ago.


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PostPosted: 06 Aug 2015 10:48 
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 368362.cms

France and Russia have resolved the Mistral issue.


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PostPosted: 07 Aug 2015 00:28 
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Perfect question for this thread....
Jhujar wrote:
O,Wise men of this Chaupal
Grand Masters of Mayajal
What Future Hold for us All?

We saw the collapse of Communism, fall of USSR, Gulf Wars/ Gulp (oil) Wars ,Internet revolution, Rise of AQ, Global Financial meltdown, Rise of China and rest of Asia , Messed up Europe, arrival of India and Rise of Son of Soil Modi phenomenon. What will be the next important event ? End of Oil and ME Royal families leading to the unraveling of Malsi as part of the re beginning of the interrupted process which started in 18th Century. End of Malsi is prerequisite for world to become true global village.
Curious to know how this 21 Century human civilization will be shaped by technological, social, philosophical factors and Which country, people will possess the necessary tools for this venture.


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PostPosted: 08 Aug 2015 12:41 
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^^ take this for whatever you deem its worth.

I am a man of small means and even smaller understanding than the big boys here. HOwever, I look at things from a perspective where economics trumps every damned thing that it comes up against.

Economics not as its taught. Nor does it mean that what is not taught is a suitable and accurate medium to explain a certain concept. I approach it from a very uneducated perspective with no hang ups and no vested interest. I have no skin in the game. BUt I still do have some skin in the game as the consequences will affect us all - no matter how rich or poor you are.

This question is like a fractal. A fractal is a natural phenomenon or a mathematical set that exhibits a repeating pattern that displays at every scale. I am not mathematician (h/t VAyu tuvan) but my understanding is like a fractal which gives infinite resolution.

I have always said in the very short span I have been among the esteemed company of this forum, that the current debt based paradigm of global economy is coming to an end. I have even put my neck out and said it will be mostly through by the end of October. If you are prescient about it, I would even say it has already begun.

The understanding rests on the concept of money. This is very poorly understood and we need to put serious time into understanding this simple concept. Just to be very brief - the 3 functions of money are unit of account, medium of exchange and store of value. WE have been brought up on a kool aid that US dollar will do the 3 jobs well. Alas it has not and we have been standing at the edge of this precipice for far too long staring into the abyss. Its abyss for those who cannot see what comes next.

I would state with utmost humility that this is not my theory but I have learnt it off some very good thinkers on the internet who have given this knowledge away for free. Some of their commentary is arcane and even cryptic but if taken as a whole its logical and its very rational explaination for the answer that you seek.

The premise rests on what gold is. What it has been. What it will be. BUT believe in this truism - EVERYONE OF US WILL WALK THIS GOLD TRAIL. THe trail of understanding what Gold is, what GOld was and what GOld will be. Many things we believe to be unchanging will change and what we will encounter will be a PARADIGM SHIFT. Its not Hegelian dialectic where we are trying to reach a pre agreed solution for the problem. If one bothers to understand the problem faced by the peoples of the current era, you will see many possible competing and incommensurable solutions to those problems. My examination of many of these possible solutions makes me compelled to believe the solution is simple. Yet it seems so darn complicated. Was it by design? I don't know. Separate the 3 functions of money into 2 broad categories. Never let the unit of account function/medium of exchange function come anywhere close to the store of value function. WE are at this stage of general global unrest, lethargy, poverty trap because there is no delineation between the 3 functions of money.

The one thing I state with utmost conviction - US dollar is dead. And with that will die the American war machine too. On the perspectives of economics thread I may have droned on a bit about this so I wont rehash those arguments. In many ways all that I had to say (within the gamut of my understanding has been said- and I have nothing more to add). This death of American dollar is the next important event that we will see. The Death of American dollar is not death of America. Its the death of the American way of life. The death of the exorbitant privilege as Charles De Gaulle called it. The consequence of this will be remarkable in many more ways than we can imagine.

Many things I state follow on from that position of understanding.

There is 8 part video on youtube called - the most important video you will ever see. Its by the late Prof. Albert Bartlett - a mathematician and a nuclear physicist. The take away point from this lecture is this - THE GREATEST SHORTCOMING OF A HUMAN MIND IS ITS INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION. DO watch it. It will help change some nonsense that the economists have filled our heads with. I do sometimes wish I had paid more attention when I was studying maths at school.

Dr Bartlett states - "Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavour on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?" You can take this line of thought a stage further and add any possible variations to population. Anything tangible.

IMO Islam is not a problem. Nor is oil a problem. Nor are the ME royalty a problem. Nor is Billary a problem. All these look like problems because we are beholden to the stupidity of the idiot who runs the American government. And they have the power because the whole world uses their currency which the Americans can print at will. The only difference is everyone else has to earn their dollar while the American can print it without putting in any hard work. before being reprimanded about American contribution to global piss and security, to the phenomenal improvement in technology etc. I have to add that this has nothing to do with America per se. They happened to be where they were by shear luck. Any nation who was powerful enough in 1920 could have got to where America got to today.

FWIW, India will Modi at helm is well placed. Yes we have problems, but we have less problems than than west has. West is well and truly screwed. With the end of the western hegemony in most aspects of life, the Western Universalism will also die. WE cant see that yet, but as the wise say - Time of all will prove things.

All this FWIW.


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PostPosted: 17 Aug 2015 13:29 
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Jesse Cafe Americain

Quote:
"We are imperial, and we are in decline... People are losing confidence in the Empire."


This is the key theme of Larry Wilkerson's presentation. He never really questions whether empire is good or bad, sustainable or not, and at what costs. At least he does not so in the same manner as that great analyst of empire Chalmers Johnson.

It is important to understand what people who are in and near positions of power are thinking if you wish to understand what they are doing, and what they are likely to do. What ought to be done is another matter.

Wilkerson is a Republican establishment insider who has served for many years in the military and the State Department. Here he is giving about a 40 minute presentation to the Centre For International Governance in Canada in 2014.

I find his point of view of things interesting and revealing, even on those points where I may not agree with his perspective. There also seem to be some internal inconsistencies in this thinking.

But what makes his perspective important is that it represents a mainstream view of many professional politicians and 'the Establishment' in America. Not the hard right of the Republican party, but much of what constitutes the recurring political establishment of the US.

As I have discussed here before, I do not particularly care so much if a trading indicator has a fundamental basis in reality, as long as enough people believe in and act on it. Then it is worth watching as self-fulfilling prophecy. And the same can be said of political and economic memes.

At minute 48:00 Wilkerson gives a response to a question about the growing US debt and of the role of the petrodollar in the Empire, and the efforts by others to 'undermine it' by replacing it. This is his 'greatest fear.'

He speaks about 'a principal advisor to the CIA Futures project' and the National Intelligence Council (NIC), whose views and veracity of claims are being examined closely by sophisticated assets. He believes that both Beijing and Moscow are complicit in an attempt to weaken the dollar.

This includes the observation that "gold is being moved in sort of unique ways, concentrated in secret in unique ways, and capitals are slowly but surely divesting themselves of US Treasuries. So what you are seeing right now in the supposed strengthening of the dollar is a false impression."

The BRICS want to use oil to "force the US to lose its incredibly powerful role in owning the world's transactional reserve currency." It gives the US a great deal of power of empire that it would not ordinarily have, since the ability to add debt without consequence enables the expenditures to sustain it.

Later, after listening to this again, the thought crossed my mind that this advisor might be a double agent using the paranoia of the military to achieve the ends of another. Not for the BRICS, but for the Banks. The greatest beneficiary of a strong dollar, which is a terrible burden to the real economy, is the financial sector. This is why most countries seek to weaken or devalue their currencies to improve their domestic economies as a primary objective. This is not so far-fetched as military efforts to provoke 'regime change' have too often been undertaken to support powerful commercial interests.

Here is just that particular excerpt of the Q&A and the question of increasing US debt.




Quote:
I am not sure how much the policy makers and strategists agree with this theory about gold. But there is no doubt in my mind that they believe and are acting on the theory that oil, and the dollar control of oil, the so-called petrodollar, is the key to maintaining the empire.

Wilkerson reminds me very much of a political theoretician who I knew at Georgetown University. He talks about strategic necessities, the many occasions in which the US has used its imperial power covertly to overthrow or attempt to overthrow governments in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, and the Ukraine. He tends to ascribe all these actions to selflessness, and American service to the world in maintaining a balance of power where 'all we ask is a plot of ground to bury our dead.'

A typical observation is that the US did indeed overthrow the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in 1953 in Iran. But 'the British needed the money' from the Anglo-Iranian oil company in order to rebuild after WW II. Truman had rejected the notion, but Eisenhower the military veteran and Republic agreed to it. Wilkerson says specifically that Ike was 'the last expert' to hold the office of the Presidency.

This is what is meant by realpolitik. It is all about organizing the world under a 'balance of power' that is favorable to the Empire and the corporations that have sprung up around it.

As someone with a long background and interest in strategy I am not completely unsympathetic to these lines of thinking. But like most broadly developed human beings and students of history and philosophy one can see that the allure of such thinking, without recourse to questions of restraint and morality and the fig leaf of exceptionalist thinking, is a terrible trap, a Faustian bargain. It is the rationalization of every nascent tyranny. It is the precursor to the will to pure power for its own sake.

The challenges of empire now according to Wilkerson are:

1) Disequilibrium of wealth - 1/1000th of the US owns 50% of its total wealth. The current economic system implies long term stagnation (I would say stagflation. The situation in the US is 1929, and in France, 1789. All the gains are going to the top.
2) BRIC nations are rising and the Empire is in decline, largely because of US strategic miscalculations. The US is therefor pressing harder towards war in its desperation and desire to maintain the status quo. And it is dragging a lot of good and honest people into it with our NATO allies who are dependent on the US for their defense.
3) There is a strong push towards regional government in the US that may intensify as global warming and economic developments present new challenges to specific areas. For example, the water has left the Southwest, and it will not be coming back anytime soon.

This presentation ends about minute 40, and then it is open to questions which is also very interesting.

Lawrence Wilkerson, Distinguished Visiting Professor of Government and Public Policy at the College of William Mary, and former Chief of Staff to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.


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PostPosted: 17 Aug 2015 21:41 
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PRH, All empires flourish with legitimacy and decline with the loss of legitimacy.

Post WWII, US was seen as legitimate successor to the mantle of Western Imperium which harks back to Rome in fits and halts. However last decade saw the legitimacy erode and get destroyed in unwarranted use of brute force. No power can be legitimate after litany of Abu Gharib type abuses.


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PostPosted: 17 Aug 2015 22:31 
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panduranghari wrote:
^^ take this for whatever you deem its worth.

I am a man of small means and even smaller understanding than the big boys here. HOwever, I look at things from a perspective where economics trumps every damned thing that it comes up against.

Economics not as its taught. Nor does it mean that what is not taught is a suitable and accurate medium to explain a certain concept. I approach it from a very uneducated perspective with no hang ups and no vested interest. I have no skin in the game. BUt I still do have some skin in the game as the consequences will affect us all - no matter how rich or poor you are.

This question is like a fractal. A fractal is a natural phenomenon or a mathematical set that exhibits a repeating pattern that displays at every scale. I am not mathematician (h/t VAyu tuvan) but my understanding is like a fractal which gives infinite resolution.

I have always said in the very short span I have been among the esteemed company of this forum, that the current debt based paradigm of global economy is coming to an end. I have even put my neck out and said it will be mostly through by the end of October. If you are prescient about it, I would even say it has already begun.

The understanding rests on the concept of money. This is very poorly understood and we need to put serious time into understanding this simple concept. Just to be very brief - the 3 functions of money are unit of account, medium of exchange and store of value. WE have been brought up on a kool aid that US dollar will do the 3 jobs well. Alas it has not and we have been standing at the edge of this precipice for far too long staring into the abyss. Its abyss for those who cannot see what comes next.

I would state with utmost humility that this is not my theory but I have learnt it off some very good thinkers on the internet who have given this knowledge away for free. Some of their commentary is arcane and even cryptic but if taken as a whole its logical and its very rational explaination for the answer that you seek.

The premise rests on what gold is. What it has been. What it will be. BUT believe in this truism - EVERYONE OF US WILL WALK THIS GOLD TRAIL. THe trail of understanding what Gold is, what GOld was and what GOld will be. Many things we believe to be unchanging will change and what we will encounter will be a PARADIGM SHIFT. Its not Hegelian dialectic where we are trying to reach a pre agreed solution for the problem. If one bothers to understand the problem faced by the peoples of the current era, you will see many possible competing and incommensurable solutions to those problems. My examination of many of these possible solutions makes me compelled to believe the solution is simple. Yet it seems so darn complicated. Was it by design? I don't know. Separate the 3 functions of money into 2 broad categories. Never let the unit of account function/medium of exchange function come anywhere close to the store of value function. WE are at this stage of general global unrest, lethargy, poverty trap because there is no delineation between the 3 functions of money.

The one thing I state with utmost conviction - US dollar is dead. And with that will die the American war machine too. On the perspectives of economics thread I may have droned on a bit about this so I wont rehash those arguments. In many ways all that I had to say (within the gamut of my understanding has been said- and I have nothing more to add). This death of American dollar is the next important event that we will see. The Death of American dollar is not death of America. Its the death of the American way of life. The death of the exorbitant privilege as Charles De Gaulle called it. The consequence of this will be remarkable in many more ways than we can imagine.

Many things I state follow on from that position of understanding.

There is 8 part video on youtube called - the most important video you will ever see. Its by the late Prof. Albert Bartlett - a mathematician and a nuclear physicist. The take away point from this lecture is this - THE GREATEST SHORTCOMING OF A HUMAN MIND IS ITS INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION. DO watch it. It will help change some nonsense that the economists have filled our heads with. I do sometimes wish I had paid more attention when I was studying maths at school.

Dr Bartlett states - "Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavour on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?" You can take this line of thought a stage further and add any possible variations to population. Anything tangible.

IMO Islam is not a problem. Nor is oil a problem. Nor are the ME royalty a problem. Nor is Billary a problem. All these look like problems because we are beholden to the stupidity of the idiot who runs the American government. And they have the power because the whole world uses their currency which the Americans can print at will. The only difference is everyone else has to earn their dollar while the American can print it without putting in any hard work. before being reprimanded about American contribution to global piss and security, to the phenomenal improvement in technology etc. I have to add that this has nothing to do with America per se. They happened to be where they were by shear luck. Any nation who was powerful enough in 1920 could have got to where America got to today.

FWIW, India will Modi at helm is well placed. Yes we have problems, but we have less problems than than west has. West is well and truly screwed. With the end of the western hegemony in most aspects of life, the Western Universalism will also die. WE cant see that yet, but as the wise say - Time of all will prove things.

All this FWIW.


Beautiful post. I agree. There is a reason why Kautilyan concept of power rests primarily with the treasury.

IMO, it's really the family structure along with the philosophical underpinnings of the self which are the foundations of defining the function of civil society and the state and the role of currency.

The West believes in salvation through 'their' god. Moksha in our tradition lies with the self and ends with the self realizing it's non-existence. If the gov is a reflection of the collective consciousness of it's citizenry, it's no wonder that salvation in the West rests with a sovereign banking entity which is outside the domain of ordinary people just like the Christian God. Just like their Church, their banking system becomes a giant ponzi scheme and throws the world into chaos.

No doubt they have made contributions to finance, accounting, economics, and ultimately industrialization, but this could only come about through the concept of Calvinian predestination which allowed them to shed the shackles of the christian religion to compete with the East. However, this causes an endless schizophrenia in their society between Hellenism and Hebraism. They continue swinging back and forth between the two and can never properly rationalize consciousness. This is the fatal error of their civilization and will ultimately cause their downfall.

Gold is going to define the value of currency wrt to international trade and its going to be built on the idea of people exercising control over their central banks. This is already happening and the Judeo-Christian civilization is fighting back to maintain their subjugation using Islam, their sepoys, military power, and economic/financial weapons like the NYMEX, IPE, SWIFT systems.


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PostPosted: 18 Aug 2015 00:03 
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ramana wrote:
PRH, All empires flourish with legitimacy and decline with the loss of legitimacy.
Post WWII, US was seen as legitimate successor to the mantle of Western Imperium which harks back to Rome in fits and halts. However last decade saw the legitimacy erode and get destroyed in unwarranted use of brute force. No power can be legitimate after litany of Abu Gharib type abuses.


More importantly with lies such as WMDs of Iraq.


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PostPosted: 18 Aug 2015 08:58 
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ramana wrote:
PRH, All empires flourish with legitimacy and decline with the loss of legitimacy.


Ramana gaaru,
I think the politics is dependent on two aspects: power(Bhayam) & perception(Bhakthi). There seem to be only two ways to keep followers loyal: Bhayam(terror) or Bhakthi(love/respect).

The goal of power projection is to create terror or deterrence: Bhayam.
The goal of perception and propaganda is to create loyalty or love: Bhakthi.

Power == hard power == armed men.
Perception == soft power == culture, religion, language, food, ...etc.

Money and technology are somewhere in between these two groups. Money and technology facilitate both Power projection and better perception. So, they are facilitators.

Ideally, the enemy should be deterred by the leader and followers should respect the leader. But, it is easier said than done. Most of the times, leaders find it easier to terrorize their own followers than to terrorize the enemy. Because the leaders have more power over their own followers than on the competitors or enemy.

Here is a related question: Why does every invading group inflict extra-ordinary cruelties on the local people?
I think the idea is simply to terrorize the people into surrendering. Generally, the invaders are smaller in number than the locals. Further, the invaders are in a foreign country unknown to them. They are afraid of losing control if they have the control in the first place.

The easiest way to get power and keep it in such circumstances, is to terrorize local people into surrendering and remain surrendered. To terrorize people, the idea is not to just kill but do things which make the locals really really terrorized. Yes, its cruel method.

The terrorizing method works but its a very difficult method to implement properly apart from it being very cruel. Too little terror, and the people fail to be terrorized. Too much terror, and people are so terrorized that they become desperate and ready to rebel.

Only rare invaders who are naturally superior in numbers/power/culture would have the strength to co-opt the locals: Bhakthi. If an invader can progress from Bhayam to Bhakthi level, that itself would be a huge success and signifies consolidation of power. The same applies to any leader.

Now, which empire would flourish depends on relative power and relative perception compared to the other competitors.


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PostPosted: 18 Aug 2015 21:18 
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X-Posting from TSP thread....
Raja Ram wrote:
The recent escalation and violations by the Paki Army is an indication of the growing isolation that Pakistani state is finding itself. On the surface, there seems to be some lifelines extended by way of increased Aid from the US and promises of the same by China. However, there has been a marked disenchantment on the part of the major sugar daddy Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states.

That the GOI is alive to the evolving situation and has tried to sieze the opportunity is evident in the manner in which Modi visit to the UAE and the kind of agreements reached during this visit indicates. It remains to be seen how the UAE establishment that has a long and strong association with ISIS and Paki Army will be able to deliver on the key asks from India. If signals are to be read correctly, there has been a clear set of actions that have been asked by the Indian authorities and the UAE Emiratis have been keen to play ball.

Pakistan was expected to toe the line on Yemen, they were not in a position to do so. This has made the Arabi bank rollers of this rentier state very angry at the least. While on the surface a link between the escalation of bombings across LOC and IB, repeated attempts to reactivate Khalistanis, and the events in the Middle East looks tenous at best; it is not that difficult to grasp the connection between the geo political trends in the ME and in Afghanistan, the break out of India and its consolidation of SAARC under its umbrella, and a set of actions that are designed to take out terror heads that thrive in Pakistan.

Pakistan is finding itself increasingly less relevant to SAARC. Other countries are alive to the possibility of increased shared prosperity that a friendly, inclusive India represents to them. Not that they have difficulties with India, but they feel that the inflexion point India crossed post General Elections means opportunity for them too. The results of Sri Lanka's parliamentary election has seen the defeat of Rajapakse, Sheik Hasina is consolidating, Nepalese are finally coming to terms with their identity, Bhutan getting to work closely with India and Myanmar edging closer to India are all indications that the near neighbourhood engagements of the GOI are getting an interesting byproduct. The isolation of Pakistan. The main supporter and benefactor of the artificial entity, China, too is not in a mode of escalation. While they did their probing exercises, the resolve and quick reaction of the Indian Armed Forces coupled with pragmatic and non-deferential engagement with China by Delhi has forced them to recalibrate. The economic conditions and depreciating Yuan is also a tempering effect on China.

In all this the US is one benefactor that has thrown some sort of a life line for the Pakistanis establishment. The sanction of aid, selling of arms and supporting of the lines of credit to Pakistan are a few pointers. The reason for that is firmly with their intention to scale down and move out of Afghanistan. The US establishment, still holds the view that Pakistan is necessary for the stability in Afghanistan. However, the Pakistani attempts to regain what they lost post 9/11 in terms of control over Afghanistan has come unstuck despite Ghani assuming the Presidency in Kabul. The Corps Commanders had gamed scenarios and come to the conclusion that the US would not object to Pakistani ascendancy in Afghanistan in exchange for giving up or killing of the Al Qaeda and Taliban leadership which the US wants desparately. The one stumbling block was Indian support to the Afghani People and Government which they want scaled down.

The have once again misread the situation. While the US would not object to Pakistani influence over Kabul, they are not keen to have status quo ante restored with respect to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indian involvement and engagement has taken roots in Afghanistan and even a presumably Pakistan prefering Ghani will not have the ability to completely scale down Indian involvement in reviving Afghan economy. The Afghans do not have a pathalogical hatred for India as Pakistani elite have.

The situation in Balochistan and the Mohajir - Pathan- Punjabi- Sindhi faultlines are getting more pronounced as well. The ability of the state to stem it is non existent and to top it there is no redemption in sight for the moribund economy. It is in this context that Pakistani elite are reacting to the developments and situation they find themeselves in. The present GOI does not seem to have the same set of "rules of engagement" followed by previous regime including the previous NDA regime. This has caught them in a confused state of whether they should call for talks, bide their time or resort to their usual, India as the bogeyman to justify their existence. Hence the call for talks on one hand and sending of brainwashed jehadis like Naved and the increased heavy bombardment.

In their usual "tactical brilliance" they want to come up with the image of peace seekers to their benefactors and at the same time paint India as the bogey man so that they can justify the current state of affairs to their Awaam. Unfortunately, India is not playing by their expected rules. When they expect GOI to maintain status quo of retaliatory action, India goes way beyond what is purely retaliatory to a more punitive mode when attacked. When they expect that the talks would not start, India goes ahead with talks (although I am not in agreement on this) that is geared to achieve specific results rather resolving issues.

They have been caught on a slippery slope as the GOI continues to narrow down Pakistan's strategic options and ability to harm India. It is not as if the GOI has been completely successful, but the new approach has been effective in chipping away the strategic space, capability and intent of Pakistan to cause damage to India.

As usual just a ramble, take it for what it is worth.


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PostPosted: 19 Aug 2015 22:56 
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Follow up to above post....

X-post...
Raja Ram wrote:
ramana,

In a sense the US is caught reaping a whirldiwind it sowed when it comes to Pakistan and indeed its regime change initiatives post 9/11. However, I do believe that the US power calculations when it comes to Pakistan has evolved since the days when the UK and its goons laid out the contours of US policy in our region. It of course started with Pakistan being the vehicle that will lead to the eventual dismemberment of India - a clear goal of the west. History is witness of how that landed up and what happened to their vehicle. In the course of time, they found new and more uses for this entity by making it as a go-between in the context of China, as a terror base to bring down the Soviets after their Afghan misadventure, listening post on Iran, supplier of men for Saudis etc. However, all these roles have not come at the cost of their orignial motive of dismembering India.

Pakistan in turn has used the US for its own agenda. Who has whom better is a matter of debate. I would say that the Pakistanis have been one up over the mighty United States for long periods of time. However, the point that you are making that the US seems to be stuck in the mode of Pakistan being a balancer is correct, but to an extent only.

If you take a wider look of an arc emanating from North and East Africa all the way through the Middle East to Europe (Turkey and the stans) one can see a pattern of realignment that is being orcherstrated. I have been trying to make some sense to this emerging pattern. The US and the west seems to be making the necessary millenial level adjustments as they watch the rise of Asia, India and China in particular. In this context, it looks to me that they would like to make a move away from Wahabi/Deobandi Islamic allies by bringing in organized chaos into these territories. Use the ensuing chaos of Green and More Green radical Islamists sects to cut and kill each other, but localize the impact to the territories of these countries. Keep them busy that way and restrict the spill over to Asia so that they can be insulated.

It is just a preliminary conclusion and not based on much observastional data. If, however, this is true, the actions of GOI seems to indicate that it must prepare itself to create a zone where it can progress without much distortion distractions and disruptions. Going by that train of thought, Modi's emphasis on SAARC and near Asia, his emphasis and support to Iran and his pointed trip to the UAE indicate that he is building a zone of Indian influence right under the nose of the West.

It is in this context the renewed mechanism to enage with the other Asian powers of Japan, China and Russia are being strengthened. He is also using the power of economy and the 3 D (Democracy, Demography and Demand) articulation to coopt the Indian Ocean Powers in the wider arc to establish a Shared Interest model. For the first time, the Indian strategic thought is seeking to shape the direction, scale, scope of Indian influence in the International Power structure that will befit the size of India and her economy and civilizational strengths.

It is in this context, that Pakistan is being dealt with by India. The GOI is aware of the diminishing marginal utliity of this artificial entity for their backers, but at the same time are alive to the fact that the backers are not in any rush to let this artificial entity disintegrate. It is also alive to the fact that the backers of Pakistan will continue to see some utility when it comes to its value with respect to India.

While the government has signalled its intent to move into what Ajit Doval described as Offensive Defence against terror or actions by the Pakistani Conventional Army and actual delivered some hard hitting blows to back up that intent with action, it is also aware that one of the ways for India to restrict the space for Pakistani disruption is to reduce its value to its backers.

It is in the larger context of India's strategic intent that our actions against Pakistan are to be judged. Pakistan, on its part, does not want to be seen as giving up on its ability to match or cause trouble to India, because that is one of the major reasons why it gets its backers to bank roll them.

My reading is that there are three main strands to the Pakistani policy that GOI is now adopting

1. From a Diplomatic perspective isolate Pakistan in SAARC and progress with the rest.

2. Use Economic clout to effectively neutralize potential backers and supporters of Pakistan by a combination of incentives to tilt towards India and disincentive if they support Pakistan. UAE, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan, CAR countries are all being targetted.

3. Militarily out pace their capabilities where it would become insurmoutable and also integrate into multi power arrangements for security across IOR.


Tactically, the offensive Defence doctrine has been deployed whenever the Pakistani Military establishment have tried to up the ante. Except for the recent rounfd of provocation, every other time they have been given disproportinate response. From a terror perspective, Doval is building a network of arrangements to deny ISI operational bases across much of the Middile East and in the SAARC region. He is also tightening and squeezing the money and business links that support the terror factory set up by the Pakistan ISI. There is, I suspect, a plan that is in place to go after high value targets of the terror leadership inside Pakistan and other places. Of course, there will also be a greater emphasis on covert operations inside Pakistan as well.

There are some who believe that GOI has miscalculated by taking a hard line and the recent talks are in essence a forced climb down and some will also claim that this is done at the behest of the West (US). The "some" includes the anti-national Media inside India as well and they will lend their usual shrill crescendo to this line in the media. However, gentle rakshaks are expected to be that more discerning in my opinion. What we have to watch out for is the kind of talks that is being proposed, what is the agenda and the line that will be taken by the GOI during these talks.

My view is other than action on terror front, India is not going to talk about any other thing. Pakistan and their backers may want other items like Kashmir, Water, Siachen etc, but that will not happen until there is demonstrated action by Pakistan that it will give up terror against India. I am also sure that GOI is pretty much aware that Pakistani elite, be it the government or their Army will not be able to deliver on this.

What then India will gain by engaging in talks? The simple answer to that is that talks in itself is to be used to push Pakistan into unacceptable positions and ensure that the entity is pushed towards its logical destiny of dismemberment. To do this, GOI is aware that it is not that Pakistan that is being engaged and pushed but by extension India is taking on the powerful backers of Pakistan
.

As usual a ramble from my side. Take it for what it is worth.


Glad to spur rambles. Keep them coming.

IOW why did Krishna got to Hastinapura before the Mahabharat?
Same reasons to push them to take unacceptable positions that ensure their destruction..


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PostPosted: 20 Aug 2015 00:02 
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terrific post by Raja Ram . it ain,t no ramble. keep them coming


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PostPosted: 20 Aug 2015 11:39 
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Bloomberg
Kazakhstan Currency Plunges by Record 23% in Shift to Free Float
Bloomberg - ‎37 minutes ago‎
Kazakhstan's tenge plunged a record 23 percent after the country relinquished control of its exchange rate, becoming the latest emerging market to abandon efforts to prop up its currency before the U.S.

---
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... icy-moveAs the yuan’s fall broke a rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and prompted a commodities selloff, some U.S. politicians were quick to label China a currency manipulator and raise fears of a new foreign-exchange war. China indicated the Aug. 11 move gave market forces greater say as it tries to sway an International Monetary Fund review to include the yuan alongside the dollar and euro as a global reserve currency.
...
The IMF and the U.S. Treasury have been pushing China to loosen the rigid exchange-rate mechanism that restricts the yuan’s moves. The Washington-based fund only conducts its SDR review every five years and that may have accelerated China’s efforts to get the yuan included in the group of currencies held as reserves by the world’s central banks that currently includes the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and British pound.

---
p.s. since we will be crossing bartania in dollar denominated GDP by 2020, it stands to reason in the next round we ask that pound be removed and rupees be included instead.


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PostPosted: 25 Aug 2015 02:34 
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Geopolitical forecasting

Mildly related -- some qualities that help with being good at forecasting.

Quote:
1) They change their mind, frequently and in little bits. According to Good Judgment Project

2) work in teams

3) Make actual predictions

4) You have to know at least a little (about the topic)


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PostPosted: 26 Aug 2015 02:56 
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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/realism-attitude-not-doctrine-13659

Quote:
The reason for variation in practice is uncertainty in assessments of actual threats being confronted—disagreement about how to interpret evidence of the nature and extent of a given adversary’s intentions and capabilities.


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PostPosted: 26 Aug 2015 19:30 
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Joined: 24 May 2011 08:16
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Location: JJ colony , downtown manhattan.
X-Post from political dhaaga behind the boorkha

I found an interesting paper from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute


Image

the big red dots represent extreme commitment to an opinion that they want to spread..The small red dot represent the believers of the opinion , who are not committed to spread it...green is the opposite opinion or a different opinion..yellows are both opinion or ambiguous...the model is a 3D extrapolation based on regression and other models...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 190044.htm

Scientists have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion.


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PostPosted: 19 Sep 2015 00:08 
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Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27
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Hitler’s world may not be so far away


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PostPosted: 19 Sep 2015 01:51 
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Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 43662
abhishek_sharma wrote:



I read an interview in The Atlantic Monthly yesterday and noted how Tom Snyder goes to the root literature of Hitler(Mein Kampf) in his own words and proceeds to deconstruct and understand his mind.


he also was misled by the propaganda about Hitler and anti-Semitism. The point is only Hitler could have caused the Holocaust for he was a racial anarchist. Other anti-Semitics could rant and rave but not do similar action.

In a similar fashion, TSP ideology is that of religious anarchist* and has to fight Hindus and India.

That is the difference between TSP and other Muslim countries.


* Qayamat, millennialism etc. Recall the infamous Brig. who had an imagined painting of nukes over Red Fort. Or the Paki boasts of nuking Hyderabad of all places!


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