Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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RamaY
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by RamaY »

PoK = India's Hongkong.
Pakistan = India's Taiwan
Tibet = India's Inner Mangolia
Afghanistan = India's Xinjiang

Hindutva = India's peaceful raise.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by sanjaykumar »

Diligence typically beats Intelligence.

I have read or observed first hand in Massa is that the East Asian Ethos (Chinese, Koreans and Japanese) engenders extreme diligence as well as rewards/channelizes intelligence. Germany also has the same ethos. There is an admirable nimbleness of thought in China that has made them what they are today. Their system works for them and has worked for them over the last 30 years.

In our system does not empower our citizens or play to our strengths (1. Innovation and 2. Out of the box thinking) and does nothing to ameliorate our weaknesses (1. Lack of Documentation 2. Scalable solutions 3. Diligence) that has to change. If I wish Indians to learn anything from Chinese it would be diligence and an ability to do gritty, focused back breaking hardwork without giving up. I don't think it is something older Indians are trained for but it is must for the younger generation to be competitive. A cursory reading of books such as "Tiger Mom" seems to indicate that Chinese raise their kids with "tough love" and in turn I find that most kids have an abiding loyalty to parents when they grow older.

Indian kids are in my honest opinion overprotected and pampered. Even kids in my family are like that and start wailing and running to parents at the first sign of adversity.



You are conflating the immigrant ethos with Chinese society in China, but not likewise extrapolating characteristics of the Indian, actually, Hindu diaspora to India.

Would your conclusions of diligence have withstood scrutiny in 1950s to 1980s China? Diligence was decreed by Deng when he recognised the absolute degeneracy of the communist party of China. Likewise India's societal problem is state patronage that licences sloth and puts a premium on creativity but only in inventing methods to shirk work, to claim governmental benefits and secure government sinecures.

So whilst Hindus in the west are hard-driving and high achieving, not uncommonly wealthy, disdainful of benefits and quotas as fit only for "lazy" white people, the majority Indians in India are decidedly the opposite.

Of course this is not a civilsational defect, it is a consequence of the socialistic methods of harvesting votes and obtaining political power. Patronage on a massive scale, from Haj subsidies to employment for life, to entitlement to cheat on exams to reservations. Everything is designed to obtain political power.

This is social security run amok. Instead of creating wealth, Indians found ways to redistribute poverty. Jai ho and all that.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Philip »

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subc ... 0517000142
Modi more open to China after US and Japan disappoint

Staff Reporter 2015-05-17 16:22 (GMT+8)
Over 30 people were killed and around 150 others injured when the Dehradun-Varanasi Janata Express derailed near the Bachhrawan railway station on March 20, 2015 in Rae Bareli, India. Investment is sorely needed to overhaul India's outdated rail network and China may provide the answer. (Photo/CFP)
Over 30 people were killed and around 150 others injured when the Dehradun-Varanasi Janata Express derailed near the Bachhrawan railway station on March 20, 2015 in Rae Bareli, India. Investment is sorely needed to overhaul India's outdated rail network and China may provide the answer. (Photo/CFP)

The China strategy of India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, has undergone a clear change, according to Duowei News, a media outlet run by overseas Chinese.

Modi eschewed visiting China after he first came into office, only visiting the US and Japan, and even refusing investment worth US$100 billion from China, according to the website. Now, however, Modi has revised his "Indian Century" plan into the "Asian Century" being pushed by China's top leader Xi Jinping, has opened an account on Weibo, China's version of Twitter, has rearranged his itinerary to make China a priority, has declined to meet the Dalai Lama and seems to have made a U-turn on his reservations regarding China's proposed New Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road when he met with Xi on May 15. What happened to effect such a change in Modi's attitude to China? asks Duowei.

Disappointment in US, Japan

After Modi was elected in 2014, he announced that he would revitalize his country's economy and transform India into a modern, efficient and just country, an ideal that former administrations have failed to realize. In his former post as chief minister of Gujarat, he turned the western state into India's factory, achieving what has been lauded as an economic miracle there, according to Duowei. On becoming prime minister, Modi said he would reproduce this miracle nationwide. But however brilliant his blueprint for this may be, it will be impossible to implement without financial assistance from elsewhere. Modi has therefore been seeking a patron nation to fund his ambitious plans. His successive visits to the US and Japan were attempts to secure funding but the two nations offered him little in return.

When Modi went to Japan, he was only able to secure a promise of funding of US$35 billion for the next five years and secured no agreements on nuclear cooperation or high-speed railways. Japan's offer of infrastructure investment fell well below Modi's hopes and expectations. On his trip to the US, although the prime minister manages to improve diplomatic relations in the course of his hectic itinerary, he didn't manage to secure much in the way of concrete investment. It was not just the US government who responded in a disappointing manner; investment from US businesses and Indian Americans, whom Modi hoped to lobby on his visit, have gradually decreased in recent years. The apparent reason for this is the lack of transparency and the amount of red tape in India, which has led several companies to pull out. Not only did Modi not secure the investment he sought from the Obama administration, but he was pressured to sign a weapons deal which would see India hand over money in the other direction.

In between these trips, a potential patron reached out that would mean reaching a political compromise. President Xi Jinping of China visited India before Modi's US trip. Before Xi's trip to India, the Chinese side is said to have deliberately leaked to the media that Xi was planning to offer Modi US$100 billion in investment, three times the sum secured on Modi's Japan visit. Xi in the end announced investment of just US$20 billion.

China Rebuffed

Given that China holds almost US$4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, investing US$100 billion in India is not an issue for the country. The leaked investment proposal would have seen China invest US$50 billion on industrial parks and overhauling the country's rail network. The other US$50 billion would have been invested on improving infrastructure and river and port facilities in line with China's plans for India's inclusion in its Belt and Road initiative. Given that the source of the leaked proposal was likely the government itself, it is probable that the reason the final announcement put investment at only US$20 billion is due to a decision in New Delhi, according to Duowei. This poses the question of why India, as a BRICS country, would refuse this kind of investment, given its sore need for infrastructure investment.

On his visit to the US, Modi announced that the 21st Century would be "India's Century," clearly an attempt to rival Xi's idea of an "Asian Century" and his efforts to establish a cooperative institution based on a community of destiny among Asian nations. China and India previously appeared to be on different pages in this respect, with Modi actively pursuing improved relations with the US and Japan while taking a more passive stance on China.

Modi was likely concerned that a rising East Asia would undermine Indian growth and the Belt and Road initiative would undercut control of the Indian Ocean. Japan and the US would be a lot less likely to assert influence in the region, due to their physical distance.

There are also ongoing border disputes between China and India and the issue of the Tibetan government in exile, based in India since 1959. Another issue is India's unease with China's close relationship with Pakistan. The characters of both of the leaders of the two countries also poses a challenge for cooperation, as both are seen as hard-headed individuals compared to their predecessors, pledging not to cede their country's core interests and to resolve all disputes within their term in office.

Modi is shrewd enough to adjust his foreign policy to the increasingly polarized opposition that throws the US and its ally Japan into confrontation with China and Russia, and to play each side off against the other while being sure not to clearly align himself clearly with one or the other. Given India's vast population and strategic value, Modi is aware that the country is a vital chess piece in the struggle between the two sides. This is likely the reason why Modi felt the need to refuse Xi's US$100 billion investment offer, gambling on the offer being bested on his US trip.

Strategic U-turn

In the financial year of 2014-2015 that ran up to March, Indian exports to China dropped almost 20% to US$11.9 billion, and imports rose by 18% to US$60.3 billion, with the trade deficit with China rising almost 30% to US$48 billion, making up almost a third of India's total trade deficit. Modi only managed to secure a promise of US$4 billion in investment from Obama, crushing his high hopes for his US visit.

If political tensions between India and China continue to get in the way of economic cooperation, the trade deficit would likely continue to expand given that China is India's biggest trade partner, threatening to collapse the country's economy. According to a piece by C Raja Mohan, consulting editor on foreign affairs for the Indian Express and a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, "Modi is abandoning the old approaches to China [...] Modi has recognised that India can't construct a serious business relationship with China — the world's second largest economy and a major exporter of capital — by giving the security establishment a veto over economic policy."

India and Russia are key players in China's Belt and Road project, with Russia necessary to ensure the success of the northern route of the belt and India key to the southern route and the maritime route. President Vladimir Putin of Russia has already softened on the initiative, which may leave India isolated if it refuses to budge on the issue. According to a previous Duowei report, Xi's US$46 billion investment in Belt and Road infrastructure in Pakistan was an attempt to put pressure on India. It appears that this strategy may have been effective in turning India round on participating in the venture after efforts by Xi in Pakistan to depoliticize the initiative.

If India does agree to get on board and set aside political baggage, it could bring huge economic benefits to the country. It may also result in China helping India construct cross-border high-speed rail links, as it did previously for Thailand and Pakistan.
PS:The stark fact is that the US is a declining eco and military power,even though it is still the most powerful nation on the planet in both spheres. The rising power is definitely China,which is growing in every sphere (including pollution!) faster than anypne else. The US's asinine foreign policy,and cretinous sanctions over the UKR, has also seen it drive Russia much closer to China. One cannot understand the stupidity of the US as Russia poses no eco nor military threat to it.It has no border with it and the PLAN is a far greater mil threat to it in the Pacific than Russia's Pacific fleet. China threatens the smaller nations of Asia,bullying them into servility,winning by stealth without firing a shot. The Sino-Russian bonhomie has seen joint naval exercises even in the Meditt Sea for the first time,something unimaginable a decade ago.

Thus India has to sort out its priorities quickly or be left behind.Our political corruption is the greatest drawback to eco progress,leading the "state",both at the centre and states,impose even higher taxes leading to a flight of investment in India from both firang and desi investors,entrepreneurs. Many of my generation rue the day they decided to stay or return to India,only to find their hopes shattered as it was during the last lost decade of Snake-Oil Singh and the Congress' crony capitalism than benefited only the crooks and corrupt. If the West/US plays safe and only regards India as a military counter to China,then we will end up under the colonial yoke once again by default. India and China need to sort out their "security insecurity". If an accommodation is reached, without either side losing face,a triumvirate of India,China and Russia could reshape the 21st century as truly an Asian one.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

The Chinese are not articulate and eloquent, and they do not possess liberal, humanistic values. Some of the remarks and statements they make, are things that would have been long discarded in most Western countries, and positively at the official, academic and media level.
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Re: Dreaming about replacing the US in Asia

Post by KrishnaK »

svinayak wrote:
SSridhar wrote:
The ASEAN, Australia, Japan and South Korea have a deep relationship with the US and some of the individual countries have a deeper military & political relationship with the US. They are all afraid of the aggressive rise of China especially after Xi Jinping assumed power. These nations look up to the US to provide a security umbrella for them against a belligerent and rampaging China. Though they are also looking up to India as the only Asian power that has capabilities to take on China militarily, let us not kid ourselves. We are nowhere near China and are far, far away from the way US can project its power. Nobody, just nobody, is thinking of India as a replacement. Nobody wants the US to be displaced in Asia. So, I would like to know from you as to what we could do to displace the US from Asia and announce ourselves as the new hegemon?

To add to that, you are also predicting a border war in c. 2020 and you want us to take on China, disrupt its global maritime trade and all the while keeping the US completely out of the equation?

I would be interested in seeing your road-map for India to achieving such potency within the next four years.
All those countries you mentioned want India to fight the war and keep China in check including US. DO you think US will fight China PRC. You will be surprised. Uncle people already are saying that they will protect PRC shipping in case of major war. Why Unkil wants to be close to India navy?
The US is the only power capable of containing China from lashing out. The US would like to collaborate with India on this venture. There is no conspiracy. It is indeed as it looks. Pretty simple really.
Trick is for India to create a situation without fighting a war. The stakes for the global trade and global economy are high now with China at the center of it.
No idea what this means.
So, I would like to know from you as to what we could do to displace the US from Asia and announce ourselves as the new hegemon?
India will not seek hegemony but will be the stability of the Asian Indo-pacific region.
What India seeks is the same as what Japan, SoKo, Australia and other countries in the region seek. That the US stay involved in Asia to contain a rampaging China. The US continuing as the hegemon is simply the best alternative available currently. In fact there are no other alternatives as of now.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by TSJones »

If an accommodation is reached, without either side losing face,a triumvirate of India,China and Russia could reshape the 21st century as truly an Asian one.
as long as India is willing to buy from Russia and China then the triumvirate will work just fine. it will be a one way relationship.

India's largest trading partners

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_th ... s_of_India

India-US trade 2014 and 2013

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5330.html

and this also....

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 818672.cms
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Vriksh »

sanjaykumar wrote:Diligence typically beats Intelligence.

I have read or observed first hand in Massa is that the East Asian Ethos (Chinese, Koreans and Japanese) engenders extreme diligence as well as rewards/channelizes intelligence. ....SNIPPED.... If I wish Indians to learn anything from Chinese it would be diligence and an ability to do gritty, focused back breaking hardwork without giving up.

...SNIPPED...



You are conflating the immigrant ethos with Chinese society in China, but not likewise extrapolating characteristics of the Indian, actually, Hindu diaspora to India.

Would your conclusions of diligence have withstood scrutiny in 1950s to 1980s China? Diligence was decreed by Deng when he recognised the absolute degeneracy of the communist party of China. Likewise India's societal problem is state patronage that licences sloth and puts a premium on creativity but only in inventing methods to shirk work, to claim governmental benefits and secure government sinecures.

So whilst Hindus in the west are hard-driving and high achieving, not uncommonly wealthy, disdainful of benefits and quotas as fit only for "lazy" white people, the majority Indians in India are decidedly the opposite.

Of course this is not a civilizational defect, it is a consequence of the socialistic methods of harvesting votes and obtaining political power. Patronage on a massive scale, from Haj subsidies to employment for life, to entitlement to cheat on exams to reservations. Everything is designed to obtain political power.

This is social security run amok. Instead of creating wealth, Indians found ways to redistribute poverty. Jai ho and all that.
I only look at Indian diaspora in Malaysia, Singapore, Guyana, Fiji etc. I am not aware of them being more successful than the host populations. Whereas Chinese diaspora have on the whole been more successful/wealthier than the host populations. The Indian diaspora who have been successful are 1) Business diaspora (due to excellent contact with global Indian business community) 2) Technical Diaspora (due to ability to work on technology anywhere in world particularly the West).

In 1970s one of my uncles (A merchant navy captain) delivered a dock crane to China via his freighter he reported that the Chinese unloaded it, set it up and started using it the same day. Even today the productivity of a Chinese casual labor is higher than the Indian casual labor from first hand accounts. They simply do not stop working and indulge in idle chit chat when there is work on hand. In Massa I observed the Chinese students being able to sit at their desks until the job was done, whereas the Desis (me included) would typically not be as focused as a rule (significant exceptions to the above observation in both diasporas)

I think the chinese system started working for China post Mao, perhaps around 1980s. It was able to harness the innate diligence of the Chinese civilization effectively around that time. They have prospered ever since.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Arjun »

Vriksh wrote:I only look at Indian diaspora in Malaysia, Singapore, Guyana, Fiji etc. I am not aware of them being more successful than the host populations.
You want to pick on the precise countries where indentured labour from India made their way and compare attainment to non-indentured from other communities ? :roll:

What are the attainment stats that you are aware of, comparing Indians performance to Malays (for first two), Blacks (Guyana) and Fijians in Fiji ?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by abhischekcc »

From my observation on one Chinese guy who had come to our India office (to learn how to operate our MIS systems), I can vouch safe that these guys can sit for hours at the desk - they do have a huge ability to take pain without complaining or flinching.

However, when it comes to work, they can slack just as well as us Indians. Of the nine hours at the desk that the Chinese guy spent, 3-4 hours were spent playing games. :lol: Everybody, including me, were impressed by his ability to 'work', until one day I glanced over his shoulder. :mrgreen:

Diligence is great thing to have along with intelligence, but diligence alone will not win any battles.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by manjgu »

chinese, koreans and japanses without a doubt are more focussed and hard working... no debate on this count. something do with religion and work culture...
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Austin »

schinnas
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

manjgu wrote:chinese, koreans and japanses without a doubt are more focussed and hard working... no debate on this count. something do with religion and work culture...
I have managed large teams with both Chinese and Indian and American professionals in the past. I also have observed Chinese professionals (and laborers) in multiple work areas over a long period in multiple cities in US. I would say that Asians (Chinese, Koreans, Japanese) are amongst the most hard working people I have seen. While they also indulge in cheating, etc., their hardwork comes through. In addition to hard work, they also have deference and obedience to higher authorities, which is sorely lacking among st Indians of present generation, who think of such concepts with disdain. Many of their laborers also work very hard, but I have seen such hardworking labor in India as well (especially TN and Andra Pradesh - Malayalee labor due to Commie influence does not seem to work hard and KN labor are little laid back).
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

The combination of an excess of nationalism, belief in exceptionalism, and of the inevitability of a Sino-centric world is an aspect India cannot overlook during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China.
Very apt observation by our former NSA. Many Chinese have a heightened sense of exceptionalism (they believe they are better than other races in the world). This feeling of exceptionalism and nationalism has been fanned for past several decades by Chinese government very methodically. Except for few free thinking Chinese, most subscribe to this view but may not say it openly (especially those used to political correctness by living in the West). This psychology aspect could have played a role in the meteoric and unparalleled rise of China in the past few decades. A society that does not believe it is exceptional cannot achieve exceptional things. Reverse Cultural de-racination and invoking of Bharatiya pride is needed for India also to emerge.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

Philip wrote: India and China need to sort out their "security insecurity". If an accommodation is reached, without either side losing face,a triumvirate of India,China and Russia could reshape the 21st century as truly an Asian one.
I do not believe that China has a 'security insecurity' with us. OTOH, such an insecurity is only on us not on China. China understands our 'insecurity' and is in no hurry to disabuse us of that notion. In fact, it is doing everything to further that. Its opaque and duplicitous diplomacy make it very difficult to deal with it as a normal nation-state. In terms of CINC (Composite Index of National Capability), it is ~3 times us. In some countries we need to look at their capabilities, not professed intentions, while in others we need to look at their intentions, not capabilities, but China is one where both capabilities and intentions merge and therefore needs to be looked at very carefully. It is a greedy nation that wants to be the sole superpower in the world and as soon as possible. It no longer believes in Deng Xiaoping's 'peaceful rise' because it feels that it has risen now and it is time to bare its teeth. It wants to dominate Asia immediately (through OBOR, MSR, AIIB, aggression & coercion) in economic, political and military terms. It would then extend that to Europe as OBOR expands.

Unlike Pakistan, China is not a reckless or irrational nation. It plans well ahead. It is therefore not afraid of our missiles or nuclear weapons because its strength vis-a-vis India is not based on WMDs alone (unlike Pakistan). It wants to dominate us in every sphere as much as it wants to dominate Laos. It is trying to bring us under its influence and even control, through its trade, deep pockets, and coercive tactics.

Then, of course, there is the PLA which has a divergence of opinion with the CPC in some issues. Like in Pakistan, the PLA plays a significant role in foreign policy issues too.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by RajeshA »

China's sense of insecurity needs to be heightened. That can in fact be done in three ways

1) territory

2) religion of its citizenry

3) democratic aspirations

----

1) East Turkestan (Xinjiang) can be given some fuel. Tibet on the other hand, should become an open sore, contested by India in every way.

2) India's biggest contribution to the world is spirituality. India-controlled religions is something we need to build upon and make them reach every Chinese citizen.

3) China should also be jeered on the democratic front - free men vs a bunch of drones
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by arshyam »

^^ To start with, let me propose we call our northern border as the Tibet border, not the Chinese border. When discussing Lhasa or its surroundings, we should use only Tibet, not China. "Q: Where is Mansarovar? A: Tibet", and so on.

The sooner the GoI also starts doing this, the better, we need to reverse Nehru's stupidity. Our maps need to start emphasising 'Tibet' to our north, with no mention of China over the Tibetean area. We don't need to show it as independent, but de-stress the Chinese control over Tibet - border can be a nominal line, like how Google shows Arunachal Pradesh. China may not feel insecure about our military prowess, but they definitely have the insecurity about their occupied regions and those they have claims over. Their sensitivity over Taiwan is a case in point. NaMo has gone to Mongolia from Beijing, so looks like we are thinking in those terms.

By re-opening the Tibet insecurity, we can also start pricking them like they try to do w.r.t. Arunachal. But big difference is, Arunachal is represented in the top levels in our govt, but Tibet is not in theirs. In fact, the Tibetan govt resides in India :lol:
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ramana »

SS, We need to understand why PRC occupied Tibet and not Myanmar or North Korea. It could have created proxy state in Tibet but did not.
China in 1949 was still a fragile entity. it had just emerged from a long war with Japan and had a visceral civil war between the Communists and Kuomintang.
If you look back at Three Kingdoms era China could very well have split into three parts like then.
By occupying Tibet, PRC quelled any chances of breakaway regions along Buddhist lines.
And Tibet then was 1/7 of China!!!
So they hived off parts to Sinkiang and to Qinghai and reduced Tibet region area.
The worry still is Tibetan Buddhism could re-emerge.
All those claims at Tawang are for that reason.

Then there is Falun Gong still in the shadows.
If China falters can expect a violent return to Buddhism.

Did anyone note the antipathy towards Mongols and Buddhism?

The Mongols introduced Mahayana Buddhism as state religion and expanded the state to the largest China that ever was. The prevalent version in China was Thervada or Hinayana.

So modern day CPC leaders want that China minus the Mahayana Buddhism.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Suraj »

Both of China's primary territorial expansions came from foreign non-Han dynasties - the Mongols (Yuan Dynasty) and Manchus (Qing Dynasty). The Han dynasties typically all descended into warring splinter states, or were overrun. The current Han-run PRC is historically an oddity, in the sense that it's the first time the Hans themselves are precariously holding together a large country.

Just as the Chinese may be well versed in Sun Tzu and his little book, they'll also be painfully aware than Han-ruled dynasties do not have a reputation for longevity or stability. The largest Han-led dynasty was the Ming Dynasty, which was much smaller than both the Mongol Yuan Dynasty right before it, and the Manchu Qing Dynasty right after it. The Han dynasties have a reputation of maintaining a powerful looking army, but getting beaten or overrun by smaller and more tactically adept adversaries - the Mongols and Manchus.

There's a park in Beijing where there stands a replica of a tree where the last Ming Emperor fled from the Imperial Palace and hung himself to death, as the Manchus overran Beijing. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao ordered that tree cut down because it was a symbol of shame. When the Yuan and Qing dynasties fell, there was a significant effort to wipe out the 'influence of the foreigners' from all aspects of social life. Some of the Red Guards' excesses against cultural artifacts was driven by the fact that the last Chinese dynasty - the Qing Empire - was not Han.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by panduranghari »

vijaykarthik wrote: Mmh. Except that it is. How? Because no one apart from China understands how they calculate inflation. A lot of serious economists have tried and have got frustrated and left it. And unless inflation is calc properly, its clear that *real* GDP can't be estimated.
The estimated real GDP is in the region of 3.6-3.8%

If anyone is interested and motivated, just try checking the various ways Chinese industries cheat - by using circular letters of intent, credit and also how they move money out of the country by inflating their export item bills of material etc. Its a fascinating read of how its a house of cards and how stuff NEVER adds up. Yes, there are bills to show that trades took place but there are fictional entries just to increase velocity (of money) but the actual trade doesn't take place at all. Raw material at times doesn't even leave the godown.
Vijaykarthik ji,

Thanks.

I was thinking about what you had written and chanced on an essay on this specific point.

Excerpt
At the risk of repetition (a risk from which, according to some regular readers, I do not often shirk) in the case of China and the US, I would summarize very broadly by making two points. First, although it should be clear that neither GDP is “correct” as a true measure of wealth creation, I think there are good reasons to argue that the difference in real wealth creation might be greater than the difference in GDP – in other words that US wealth creation is higher relative to US GDP than China’s wealth creation is relative to China’s GDP – and it is this adjusted GDP, representing real wealth creation, whose value must be discounted to determine the economic “wealth” of each country. However, depending on how much faster China’s “adjusted” GDP grows than US “adjusted” GDP grows, this difference must show up in China’s favor in the discount rate.

In fact the growth differential must be among the most important factors in determining the relative “multiples”, and it is nominal growth, not real, that matters. There is, of course, a great deal of skepticism about the 7% real GDP growth rate that China has reported, but we should remember that in the first quarter, nominal GDP growth was much lower, 5.8%. What is more, in the past two days there have been a number of announcements that suggest that Beijing is worried enough about the growth slowdown that it may unleash a new wave of infrastructure-based spending. If this is true, it should cause GDP growth to pick up, and so should widen the growth differential between China and the US, but unfortunately this does not mean that there should be a corresponding drop in the rate at which we discount Chinese growth. The decision about how to adjust the discount rate depends on whether investors believe that additional infrastructure spending will increase the country’s potential growth rate, or instead that it will simply increase economic activity at the expense of higher debt. If we assume that Beijing has been reluctant to do this in the past, and is only doing so in response to weaker expected growth numbers, it would suggest the latter explanation, which implies a higher, not a lower, discount rate, and so a lower “multiple” for the Chinese economy.

Second, ignoring the factor that represents the growth differential, there is absolutely no way to justify similar discount rates for the two economies. Every dollar in the adjusted US GDP must be more valuable than every dollar in China’s adjusted GDP, because US wealth creation almost certainly must be discounted at a lower rate. But how much lower? However you measure it, it seems to me that the appropriate US discount rate should be substantially lower, but the two most important adjustments, one of which I discuss above as consisting of the difference in respective growth rates, are likely to be among the most controversial. The other is the impact of balance sheet inversion on the discount rate.

If investors believe that a very large component of China’s GDP growth is explained by the pro-cyclicality of balance sheet distortions, or if they accept the validity of CAPM in valuing higher expected growth based on higher leverage, then they will have to raise the Chinese discount rate to eliminate altogether the value of this additional growth.
You can read all of it here

A book written by Nick Lardy - Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, states with conviction that the current state dominated business model of China by 2023 (when eleven) retires will be predominantly private and would grow at least at 8% per annum. I cannot reconcile that number as currently there are too many problems within China. Lardy claims with enough understanding of the fundamental nature of China’s economy, its political economy institutional structure, and the evolution of its economy since the beginning of the reforms.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by panduranghari »

SSridhar wrote: Then, of course, there is the PLA which has a divergence of opinion with the CPC in some issues. Like in Pakistan, the PLA plays a significant role in foreign policy issues too.
The only way the Chinese engine will stop running is when the water runs out. And it is actually happening. Bramhaputra is in grave danger. If we can take over the Burang county and control the water, China is well and truly stuffed.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by TSJones »

More bald faced theft from guys twice as smart and harder working than any American:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-charges ... 40329.html

....that's OK, it was all originally invented in China anyway. They're just taking back what is theirs to begin with.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Have received many (quite a few stories in many newspapers too) MIT mail/news-alert Chinese Hackers Force Penn State to Unplug Engineering Computers


For example this from - Bloomberg Business
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

[quote="Vriksh"]A cursory reading of books such as "Tiger Mom" seems to indicate that Chinese raise their kids with "tough love" and in turn I find that most kids have an abiding loyalty to parents when they grow older.
[quote]

A cursory reading of the book pretty much only gives that much information - cursory information. While I don't want to disagree with your other points as I dont have much to say about it (and only had a cursory look, tongue in cheek), I absolutely disagree with this pt above.

If what you say above were true, I wonder why China is trying to have a punitive system to ensure that children take care of their elders? Why is it that the old and infirm are being left behind, ingloriously, to fend for themselves while the young 'uns move westward and southward in search of jobs etc.

The point you made above doesn't sit well with reality --> which implies that something is rotten with their society too if the govt has to intervene at a policy level.

--
China is trying to massively move its pop to the cities in the assumption that they can "civilize" it and also improve std of living. Its making a major mistake... one that a lot of other countries learnt the hard way. Besides, their hukuo system hasn't been modernized yet [the system is almost eq to our "ration card" / PDS].

The abiding loyalty bit might happen with the latest generation - the ones who moved to foren lands about a generation or two back. Why? Its possibly because the recent converts / recruits will usually be even more loyal than the king!
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

LAC, PoK issues block full blooming of India-China ties - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
India and China have established a detailed framework of partnership during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, but the delay in clarification of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Beijing’s proposed forays into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) are hampering the full development of ties.

Diplomatic sources said the Prime Minister had been forthright in conveying to his hosts that the process to clarify the LAC, stalled since 2005, should be resumed.

The sources pointed out that the LAC clarification should be seen as part of an evolving architecture of confidence-building measures, which have been put in place to ensure peace along the border.

“We need to have the clarification of the LAC as the basis of the management of the border,” the sources said.

During his address at Tsinghua University, arguably his most important speech during his China visit, Mr. Modi stressed that LAC clarification could be done “without prejudice to our position on the boundary question”.

That allays apprehensions among a section of the Chinese establishment that India would insist on turning the LAC into a permanent border once it was clarified.


Minimalist expectations

The sources pointed out that in the context of the LAC clarification, the minimalist approach would be to have a shared perception of each other’s positions, which alone would contribute immensely in easing tensions.

During talks, India has stated with clarity its objections to the making part of the proposed Pakistan-China economic corridor pass through the PoK.

Economic corridor

Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated the Gwadar-Kashgar economic corridor as part of China’s “belt and road” connectivity initiative for integrating the economies of Eurasia.

India’s core concerns that are restraining ties, which include LAC clarification and the use of PoK territory in defining the Pakistan-China economic corridor, were covered in remarks by the Prime Minster at the Great Hall of the People.
Why did LAC clarifications stall since 2005? In c. 2005, Man Mohan Singh and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao almost came to an agreement on the resolution of the border dispute when they agreed that “The two sides shall safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas”. According to India, this meant that existing locations along the border where there were ‘settled populations’ would be taken as the border between the two countries and that “settled populations would not be disturbed”. However, the Chinese later went back on this agreement and claimed that safeguarding ‘settled populations’ did not mean accepting the status-quo as legitimate border and that there were other connotations to the phrase ’safeguarding settled populations’. They didn't want to move any further after that.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

India wants China’s backing for Security Council, NSG entry - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit here, India made it transparent that China’s explicit support for New Delhi as a full member of the United Nations Security Council and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a grouping that promotes nuclear commerce while ensuring non-proliferation, will raise ties to “a new level”.

Analysts say that any accommodative shift in China’s position on the NSG is likely to recalibrate Beijing’s ties with Pakistan. Pakistan has been vocal in opposing India’s entry, after U.S. President Barack Obama backed New Delhi’s membership in January. The New York Times had earlier reported that Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser, had issued a statement following Mr. Obama’s India visit that “Pakistan is opposed to yet another country-specific exemption from NSG rules to grant membership to India, as this would further compound the already fragile strategic stability environment in South Asia”.

Nuclear energy

Yet, nuclear commerce is slowly entering the China-India equation. Ahead of Mr. Modi’s visit, Liu Jinsong, Deputy Director-General in the Chinese Foreign Ministry, had listed nuclear power stations as one of China’s strengths which India could leverage.

The “harmonisation” of India’s “Mausam” and “Spice Route” connectivity projects with China’s “belt and road” initiative was not discussed in the talks, the sources said.

Contrary to assumptions in a section of the Chinese media that India wanted to monopolise the Indian Ocean, Mr. Modi said during his Tsinghua speech that “cooperation is essential” as “India and China conduct their international commerce on the same sea lanes.”
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

Today, I happened to read the ex- Deputy NSA's words in yesterdays TNIE. It was interesting and revealing. But also raises a point about why these "revealing" statements and intent is never mentioned to the ruling party when the fellas are in power and can do something about it.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by vijaykarthik »

this is the link that I am talking about:
Modi's China visit: Much Ado about nothing
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

China failed to gain India's support for Silk Road projects, says Chinese think tank - PTI, Economic Times
China has failed to secure India's backing for its mega Silk Road projects during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit last week even though his trip constituted a significant step to build mutual trust, a state-run Chinese think tank said.

"Modi's first journey to China since he assumed office constitutes a significant step in building the Sino-India strategic mutual trust," an article written by Liu Zongyi, research fellow of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said.

"In the first place, the state heads of the two countries have strengthened mutual trust with practical actions," it said stating that Modi has been given an "unprecedented welcome and reception in China".

"Beijing received some return from New Delhi. Modi revealed at Tsinghua University that Chinese tourists would be able to apply for Indian e-visas, which, however, is not stated in the joint statement," it said

But at the same time it said "China has failed to gain support from India on issues concerning its key interests, especially in building the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)."

Beijing has rendered enormous endorsement for New Delhi in regional and international cooperation, but acquired less in comparison, it said.

Officials said the Silk Road initiatives, officially called the Belt and Road projects has figured in Modi's talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The Silk Road projects included road connectivity between China and Europe through Central Asia, the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor, the USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the MSR

While India is taking part in the BCIM, it has already expressed concerns over the CPEC as it goes through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

About the Chinese investments in India, the Global Times article said "tens of billions of investment deals will, of course, facilitate Chinese firms in entering India's market".

"How they will benefit China rests on to which extent India will open its market," it said.


"It is a lengthy process for the two countries to configure strategic mutual trust, in which China has been rather active. It is expected that in the future India will take bolder steps in a more positive stance," it said.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

Japan unveils $110 billion plan to fund Asia infrastructure, eye on AIIB - Reuters, ET
Japan unveiled a plan on Thursday to provide $110 billion in aid for Asian infrastructure projects, as China prepares to launch a new institutional lender that is seen as encroaching on the regional financial clout of Tokyo and its ally Washington.

The amount of Japanese funds, to be invested over 5 years, tops the expected $100 billion capitalisation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Beijing-sponsored lender scheduled to begin operations next year.

Japanese officials said the plan, announced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a symposium of Asian officials and experts, represents a 30 percent increase over Tokyo's past infrastructure funding.

Japan said it wants to focus on "high quality" aid, for example, by helping recipients tap its expertise in reducing pollution while building roads and railways. That's an implicit contrast with the AIIB, whose projects Washington has said may not adequately safeguard the environment.

"We intend to actively make use of such funds in order to spread high-quality and innovative infrastructure throughout Asia, taking a long-term view," Abe said in a speech announcing the plan.

About half the funds will be extended by state affiliated agencies in charge of aid and loans and the rest in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Japan hopes the aid will help draw private funds to help meet the vast demand for infrastructure in Asia.

The United States and Japan were caught off guard when a total of 57 countries, including Group of Seven members Britain, Germany and France jumped on board the AIIB bandwagon by March.

The two allies have stayed out of the China-led institution, seen as a rival to the US-dominated World Bank and Japan-led Asian Development Bank, citing concerns about transparency and governance - although Tokyo for one is keeping its options open.

Finance officials said Japan's aid plan had long been in the works as part of a Group of 20 pledge to meet global needs. But worried that Japan may look less pro-active than Beijing, Tokyo also wants to showcase its support for the region.

"We had thought it was better not to speak up much, but that doesn't get through," Koichi Hagiuda, a special aide to Abe in his Liberal Democratic Party, told Reuters. "So some demonstration seems to be needed."

Japanese and Chinese finance officials will meet in Beijing on June 6 and may discuss the AIIB, but Tokyo looks unlikely to make a decision on joining any time soon.

LDP lawmakers looking into the matter will put together a report later this month or in early June, but will only state the pros and cons of joining or staying out, said Masahiko Shimayama, a member of the party panel.

"I think it's unlikely that the government would make a decision on when to join based on our report," he told Reuters. Tokyo, which given the size of its economy could become the No. 2 donor if it decides to join the AIIB, may well keep its powder dry for some time to come.

"If it (AIIB) becomes a proper financial institution for the sake of Asia, there is no reason to be embarrassed about joining later," Hagiuda said.

The United States and Japan agreed last month that the World Bank and ADB should team up with the AIIB in syndicated loans as a way to help the new lender establish strong standards.

The AIIB is holding a meeting of founder members in Singapore this week to decide on the articles of association and operational details. A delegate to the conference, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was unlikely the new bank could start lending at the start of 2016 as predicted, given the need for member countries to get approvals from their legislatures.

"China hopes that members get such approvals by year-end and the operations start from the next year, said the Asian delegate. "But I wonder if it is possible, given domestic political situations in each country."
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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China’s shadow looms over summit of Japan and Pacific island nations - Japan Times
As leaders of Japan and Pacific island nations gather Friday to discuss their usual checklist for cooperation in dealing with disasters and climate change, one country is likely to be at the back of their minds: China.

Gathering for the seventh Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting in Fukushima Prefecture, Tokyo is keen to ramp up its presence in the resource-rich region, where it has been strongly involved since the late 1980s, Japanese officials said. The summit brings together Japan and the 16-member Pacific Islands Forum.

Experts familiar with Japan’s ties with the island nations say that China has stepped up its presence in the region since holding its own summit with some Pacific island states in 2006, providing huge amounts of aid. Japan began holding its summit with the forum in 1997.


During the two-day meeting in the city of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to deliver a keynote speech to unveil a new vision for Japanese diplomacy toward Pacific island states, a Foreign Ministry official said.

Tokyo will include an aid package over the next three years, the official added.

In the previous summit in 2012 in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan pledged aid worth up to $500 million.

Japan’s new package is expected to exceed that amount, based on a rough draft of the leaders’ declaration to be released after the meeting, diplomatic sources said.

The draft also suggests that Japan and members of the forum will speed up efforts to collect the remains of Japanese war dead in the island states, where fierce battles were fought during World War II, and cooperate over reforms of the U.N. Security Council, the sources said.

The draft is also expected to note Japan’s contributions as a peace-loving nation over the past 70 years since the war’s end.

The officials said Abe, leaders of the 14 Pacific island states, and ministers from Australia and New Zealand, which are also part of the forum, are expected to take up five pillars of cooperation. They will cover areas such as maritime issues and fisheries, disaster management, and efforts to combat climate change ahead of a U.N. conference to fight global warming in Paris later this year.

Japan hopes to share its lessons from the 2011 triple disaster with officials from the island nations, which are especially vulnerable to the impact of global warming.

On Friday, Abe and the leaders are also scheduled to visit a tsunami-affected area in Fukushima, the site of the nuclear crisis that began following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, the officials said.

Sustainable development for the region and boosting people-to-people exchanges are two other areas where Japan hopes to continue working with the Pacific island states, the officials said.

The forum includes Australia, the Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

The United States, which participated in the meeting for the first time in 2012, will not take part this time.

To strengthen Japan’s ties not only with the entire region but with each country, Abe is expected to hold bilateral talks on the fringes of the summit. Prior to the meeting, he met with a few leaders including Fijian Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama on Monday.

One of the highlights of the summit in Fukushima is Fiji’s return to the summit. Japan did not invite Fiji’s prime minister in the 2009 and 2012 summits following a coup in 2006, the officials said.

After Fiji held a democratic election last year, Japan decided to invite the prime minister, a move regarded by pundits as a way to win back influence in the country, as China had stepped in recently to increase its presence there.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by panduranghari »

China and Japan are almost matching each other for buying US treasury Bonds.


China, Mainland March 1261.0 Feb 1223.7 Jan 1239.1
Japan March 1226.9 Feb 1224.4 Jan 1238.6

in billion dollars.

Both want their projects i.e AIIB and ADB to be the biggest in Asia.

It makes sense why China was buying US treasuries through Belgium until last year. To hide the excess purchases from others. wow.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by A_Gupta »

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-re ... ng-2087966
Religion in China must be independent from "foreign influence" and domestic religious groups must pledge loyalty to the state, President Xi Jinping has said amid warming of Beijing's ties with the Vatican after decades of hostility.

Authorities must value the influence of persons in the religious sphere and guide them to better serve for the nation's development, harmony and unification, Xi said at a meeting of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), to realise the Chinese Dream.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Bade »

Authorities must value the influence of persons in the religious sphere and guide them to better serve for the nation's development, harmony and unification, Xi said at a meeting of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), to realise the Chinese Dream.
How can there be another religion existing within a religion (CPC) ? :P
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by NRao »

Japan unveils $110 billion plan to fund Asia infrastructure, eye on AIIB
Japan unveiled a plan on Thursday to provide $110 billion in aid for Asian infrastructure projects, as China prepares to launch a new institutional lender that is seen as encroaching on the regional financial clout of Tokyo and its ally Washington.

The amount of Japanese funds, to be invested over 5 years, tops the expected $100 billion capitalisation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Beijing-sponsored lender scheduled to begin operations next year.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by NRao »

China warns U.S. surveillance plane

India will have to face similar situations.
In a sign of just how valuable China views these islands to be, the new islands are already well protected.

From the cockpit, Lt. Cmdr Matt Newman told CNN, "There's obviously a lot of surface traffic down there: Chinese warships, Chinese coast guard ships. They have air search radars, so there's a pretty good bet they're tracking us."

The proof was loud and clear. The Chinese navy ordered the P8 out of the airspace eight times on this mission alone.

Each time, the American pilots told them calmly and uniformly that the P8 was flying through international airspace.

That answer sometimes frustrated the Chinese radio operator on the other end.

Once he responds with exasperation: "This is the Chinese navy ... You go!"

This is a military-to-military stand-off in the skies, but civilian aircraft can find themselves in the middle.

As was heard on the first of several Chinese warning on the radio, the pilot of a Delta flight in the area spoke on the same frequency, quickly identifying himself as commercial. The voice on the radio then identified himself as "the Chinese Navy" and the Delta flight went on its way.

The more China builds, U.S. commanders told CNN, the more frequently and aggressively the Chinese navy warns away U.S. military aircraft.

Over Fiery Cross Reef and, later, Mischief Reef, fleets of dozens of dredgers could be seen hard at work, sucking sand off the bottom of the sea and blowing it in huge plumes to create new land above the surface, while digging deep harbors below.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

During his China visit, Prime Minister Modi has been unusually forthright
India must be consistent in this approach, from top to bottom. Not only Modi, but also Sushma Swaraj, Parrikar, Jaishankar et al must speak in the same Modi-way at all times. The message should go to the Chinese that India has changed now. To be honest, even earlier, India was forthright now and then but we sooner, than later, reversed our approach. Every country, by now, is accustomed to this weakness of ours, a lack of consistency backed up by credibility.
[Modi is] creating consciousness in the Chinese public that China has a responsibility of addressing outstanding issues if it wants the bilateral relationship to move forward
The trouble is that the the Chinese media, including social media, is so heavily controlled that the message would not reach the public. At the most, Modi can deliver just one lecture whenever he visits China just like what he did at Tsinghua University. Also, there is no such thing as public pressure within China that shapes its foreign policy. The Chinese Ambassador writes articles in Indian newspapers, but our Ambassador in China cannot do so, for example.
Modi is moving the Chinese out of their present comfort zone and dealing with China with greater self-assurance
Very true.
To strengthen our international cooperation, he frontally sought China’s support for India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council and India’s membership of export control regimes like the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This was unusual as such a public appeal does not normally come from his elevated position. A prime Minister should not seen as a supplicant.
Though it may be unusual, I do not consider this as a supplication. He got an opportunity to state to the Chinese public, especially future generations who would govern China, some facts that they may not be aware of because the state control on news.
That Modi himself announced at the last minute at Tsinghua the grant of e-visas to the Chinese after the Foreign Secretary had told the media earlier that no decision had been taken, raises questions about policy making, especially as the stapled visa issue remains unresolved. Of course, enhanced economic engagement requires easier visas and to that extent such a decision can be seen as pragmatic, but we have given up a valuable card touching upon sovereignty issues without sufficient return.
Very true.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

PM has achieved aims of China visit, says Gen. Singh - The Hindu
India has made substantial progress in paving the way for resolving outstanding issues with China, Minister of State for External Affairs General (retd) V.K. Singh said on Thursday.

Referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to China, Mongolia and South Korea, he said India’s foreign policy has graduated from ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’.

Gen. Singh said an indication of improving relations between the two countries was the absence of incidents of border violations when Mr. Modi was in China.

‘Atmosphere of trust’

Speaking at ‘Manthan’, a conclave organised by a private news channel, Gen. Singh said India has been able to put forth the way forward, an atmosphere of trust and friendship has been created and good things have happened on the business front.

“Whatever the Prime Minister went for has been achieved,” he said and hoped that China, guided by prudence, would stand by India’s concern over terrorism.


On the issue of China continuing to show an incorrect map of India, excluding Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, he said the issue has been raised diplomatically.

On the Modi government completing one year in office, he said countries cannot be run on slogans, and that the government was trying to usher in a systemic change.

Asked whether India should consider renewing cricketing ties with Pakistan, he said the matter now rests with the Sports Ministry.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Bade »

When you can push your agenda by showing maps without border states when the head of state is visiting the country, there is no need to show unnecessary force on the ground with intrusions like before. All is not well as being claimed by all, other than status quo on their previous stand.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

Ajit Doval slams Beijing’s McMahon hypocrisy - Deeptiman Tiwary, ToI
Days after PM Narendra Modi's China visit, national security advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval has raised objections to the manner in which China deals with the border dispute with India and hinted at its hypocrisy in the matter.

Speaking at a BSF function, Doval said China's claims on Tawang (in Arunachal Pradesh) were in contravention of accepted principles of border settlement. Calling it hypocrisy, Doval said China was ready to accept the McMohan Line on its border settlement with Myanmar but not with India.

He, however, stressed that any diplomatic relation with China was incumbent upon resolving the border issue. The statements are significant given that India has been trying to articulate a stance where it is willing to resolve the border dispute but also ready to push its own terms for the same.

"China's stand on the border dispute has been in complete contravention of accepted principles. They have accepted the McMohan Line while settling the border with Myanmar and then they say that the same line is not acceptable in case of India, particularly in Tawang. The settled population in these areas has been part of the national mainstream (of India) all through," Doval said while delivering the Rustamji Memorial Lecture on the 50th anniversary of BSF's foundation.

Doval, however, cautioned that India could not ignore the dispute. "We have to settle this dispute. China is an important country for us. It is one of the world's largest economies. It has got a long border with us. It has a special relationship with Pakistan. Both these countries are nuclear and not the kind of democracies that we are," Doval said.

He also said that while bilateral relations were improving, forces needed to remain vigilant. "With China we have got a very long border which is 2,488 km long. A very difficult terrain. In the bilateral relation with China, border is a critical and vital issue. All advancements in bilateral relations that we make vis-a-vis China centre around the border dispute. Maintenance of peace on the border is important for this," Doval said.

"For the last 30 years, not a single bullet has been fired. But the number of intrusions have gone up and down over the past one year. Bilateral relations have improved of late but we need to remain vigilant. We are particularly worried about the eastern sector," he added.
I am astonished, however, by Ajit Doval's claim of India-China border as 2500 Kms. India has always claimed the length of the border as ~3500 Kms while it was the Chinese who always claimed it to be ~2000 Kms as they omitted the ~1500 Km western sector (Aksai Chin, Leh & Ladakh where China possesses 38000 Sq Kms). This border is the longest undemarcated/undelimited and disputed border in the world.

The Hindu reports the same speech differently. Ties with China looking up, says Doval - Devesh K Pandey
Excerpts
Days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval said here on Friday that though relations between the two countries were looking up, the border-guarding agencies had to remain at a very high alert.

Mr. Doval said once the boundary issue was settled, India might have to adopt a “different” approach towards the China border. Observing that the neighbouring country had emerged as the world’s economic power, the NSA said its relations with Pakistan also needed to be taken into account.

Mr. Doval said that after the NDA government took over last May, one of the central points of its foreign policy was how to engage the neighbourhood. Mr. Modi took the initiative of inviting the heads of the neighbouring countries and they also came for his swearing-in.

While India showed its inclination towards improving relations with the neighbours, the country sent across a message that it was “capable of building its capabilities despite reservations of some of the countries in the border areas. It was felt that deterrence was necessary for avoiding conflict. Conflict is best avoided if you have got the deterrence.”

On technological upgrade, the NSA said that in the near future the agencies could have dedicated satellites for access to images of their interest for keeping a closer watch on the activities along the border. However, it would require raising teams well equipped to study the images.
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