US-Cuba Normalizing Relations - How does it affect India

[Victor]

U.S., Cuba to restore diplomatic relations after 50 years
All of a sudden, the US has a highly educated Spanish-speaking population (doctors, engineers) with extremely low income on its doorstep, ready to do business. The Caribbean Basin Initiative of preferential tax and duty treatment may be extended to it. Almost certainly, India has much to gain, for example via our garments industry. But China is going to pounce too. What can India do to take advantage of this?

This is a historical event not just for US and Cuba but also for other Latin American countries. Venezuela and Cuba have used their anti-Americanism to stay relevant till now. That will be turned on its head as Americans flood into Cuba and vice versa. Argentina will be influenced because the Pope was behind this detente.

Indian Embassy in Havana

(Mods please do with this topic as you will.)

[Shreeman]

Victor,

Please be patient. Its not going to change anything on immigration for the positive. The cubans are not putting people on airlines to defect just yet. And the good folk in Miami will trake care of anything remotely sane re. cuba. Cubans were not really "into" Indian goods by any means, and they wont be.
Half thge country is physically in the US. Think half of Sri Lanka population being in Tamilnadu (instead of just a few Tamils). The US folks may benefit. Not much else will change. The rafts to Miami may be fewer, and some air travel may result.

Democrats have given up on Florida for 2016 with the likes of Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush announcing thgeir candidacy. This is also a thumb up their noses. Many kidney stones passes in on bladder release. Florida will see a furious debate, republicans will have to maske a stand here or there on immigration. Russia loses out on a poitential north american "friend". Thats as far as it goesd.

This has to do with Russia and/or Florida. It is not yet anything historical. Cuba is not insane to forget 50 years of history overnight. They unbderstand the politics just the same as anyone else.

Nothing changes in the big picture.

Venezuela has oil, they are a different category country. They arent being let out of ths pen anytime soon until they start talking "reforms" aka giving back the oil companies to the US.

A lot of "tactical brilliance" is coming out of US woodwork of late. No one can be seen losing face. Not US nor Russia. This is just a minor move.

[Victor]

Shreeman, did you listen to Raul Castro on TV? This is a big deal, a 180 degree spin in 24 hours. I'm still not sure what all will be effected but I get the feeling it will be pretty monumental and supersonic. India better act fast is all I can say.

Of course immigration will not change. Why should it? But does that stop Cubans from visiting US in droves? Havana is just 70 miles from Florida. And believe me, Cubans won't give a damn about the last 50 years if they can do business with America. The first gold rush will be for all those American classic cars in Cuba.

[KLNMurthy]

From a historical and sentimental pov, this is a welcome step.

In the short term, it will mean stiff competition for Indian medical tourism business. On the plus side, it could mean more investment opportunities for Indian business. We can be the more friendly capitalists unlike overbearing gringos or soulless Chinese.

Cuba has a rich musical tradition, maybe we will see Indic-cuban fusion music.

[Shreeman]

Shreeman, did you listen to Raul Castro on TV? This is a big deal, a 180 degree spin in 24 hours. I'm still not sure what all will be effected but I get the feeling it will be pretty monumental and supersonic. India better act fast is all I can say.

Of course immigration will not change. Why should it? But does that stop Cubans from visiting US in droves? Havana is just a stones throw from Miami. And believe me, Cubans won't give a damn about the last 50 years if they can do business with America. The first gold rush will be for all those American classic cars in Cuba.

Victor,

Speeches are meant to be this way. Cuba is itching to get out of the box.

You are overvaluing those classic cars -- they are dime a dozen preserved in the US. The cubans have had to do jugaad to keep them on the road. They are not worth anything more than a curious oddity in a motor show. If anything, it is health workers that the US might want. They are less easy to get. Cigars are capped at $100!

It had to be done this way as come January, the congress will start pushing republican agenda daily. There will be occasional democratic flashes in the pan with 2016 in mind. They cant lose white house, senate and the house all. As is there is only the odd governer left in the states. The south is taking over.

From cuba's perspective, it is a historical wrong reversed. For the rest of thge world, meh.

A good summary from the horse's mouth - http://www.indembassyhavana.net/en/node/40

India has done little wrong re. cuba. But geopolitically there is never a huge opportunity. The geography and cuban conservative culture dont favor India in practical terms. China manages to show off because of dogged perseverence:

The hulk spent 16 months under tow circling in the Black Sea while high-level PRC officials negotiated on Chong Lot's behalf, offering Chinese tourism as an incentive to permit the ship's passage.In late 2001, Turkey relented from its position that the vessel posed too great a danger to maritime traffic of the Bosphorus, allowing the transit.On November 2, Varyag, escorted by other twenty-seven vessels, completed its six-hour passage through the Dardanelles without incident, making for Gallipoli and Çanakkale at 5.8 knots (10.7 km/h; 6.7 mph).
Varyag under tow in İstanbul

On November 4, Varyag was caught in a force 10 gale and broke adrift while passing the Greek island of Skyros. Sea rescue workers tried to re-capture the hulk as it drifted toward the island of Euboea.A seven-member crew remained on board as six tugboats tried to re-establish their tow. After many failed attempts to reattach the lines, a Greek coast guard helicopter landed on Varyag and picked up the seven crew members.One tug managed to make a line fast to the ship that day, but high winds severely hampered efforts to secure the ship. On November 6, Aries Lima (reported as both Dutch and Portuguese), a sailor from the tug Haliva Champion, died after a fall while attempting to reattach the tow lines; the hulk was taken back under tow on the same day.

And you never heard about it in the media. This is not India's approach.

[Victor]

Church bells ringing in Cuba. People crying. If I were a textile/garments person, I would buy a ticket to Havana pronto and set up a JV with an influential Cuban. They will be like a mini-China next door.

[arshyam]

A good summary from the horse's mouth - http://www.indembassyhavana.net/en/node/40

An interesting nugget from the link:

Indian culture and civilization is well appreciated in Cuba. Yoga and Vipassana are practised and the former forms part of the health curriculum of the Government.

[Edited] And it is stillwas regarded as anathema by our own GoI till recently!

[Victor]

India has done little wrong re. cuba. But geopolitically there is was never a huge opportunity.

Need to stop seeing only what we can't/won't do and focus on what we can/will/should.

[Shreeman]

India has done little wrong re. cuba. But geopolitically there is was never a huge opportunity.

Need to stop seeing only what we can't/won't do and focus on what we can/will/should.

I am all for good things happening everywhere. Lets see what the future brings. It is often the petty calculations like those the brought about the cuba change that effect major change as well. Perhaps this casn be one of those times.

[chanakyaa]

Normadizasion iz a berry subjective term. It seems like it is all about containing Rooshiya, i.e throw carrots in exchange for a guarantee not host their comrades when things get really really ugly with Rooshiya in coming days and months. If you read about the behind the scenes work that has been going on with Coooba, it is about 18-20 months. It did not happen overnight. Same time frame when the Sheeria and Ookraine crishish began. Not a coincidence, it is part of a very deep planning.

[saip]

No Ambassador will be posted in a while as the Republicans in Senate will not confirm.

[Austin]

Well USAID failed to change Castro Govenrment in Cuba for decades and now using Diplomatic presence and supporting Free Loving Peaceful Cuban Citizen under some NGO Banner would try to change the Cuban government via Peaceful Protest & Peaceful Riots

[krishnan]

why this sudden change ?

[Shreeman]

Geopolitics. Cuba is better in US sphere than otherwise. Choices were diplomatic relations but embargo stays vs complete closing off aka Kennedy. Russia had nothing comparable to offer. Raul chose the less poisonous option of the two US options for cuba. Russia loses out in the trade.

The radar stations in cuba may disappear quietly. guantanamo bay will become pure navy base/no prison in the next year.

Cubans from US will be freely able to travel to cuba. There is a short term material benefit to cuba. Next year, congress will act as the bad cop to prevent any real change in the bigger picture.

[Kashi]

I am still not sure- How does it affect India. Rather why should it significantly affect India.

[Shreeman]

^^^ A country of 12 million relatively good, throughly civilised, educated people at the door step of north and latin america.

Ports in Sri Lanka == chinese property. Trade costs approaching zero. Telecom in cuba, non-existent. Transport == archaic. Tourism == mom & pop. who would you like to see develop it?

[gakakkad]

US remaining hostile with cuba long after the cold war was H&D rather than geopolitics. However chankian an American move might appear, it may not be realpolitik after all. The CIA failed to kill castro a dozen times . Even when castro visited the US. That had amreeki balls in the twist . After the missile crisis, Cuba has never really done anything to endanger world peace.. quietly went about its own business..

now amreeka realises its folly final... hopefully cuba will be a new economic miracle...

[Victor]

At a time when the US needs as few enemies as possible, this is a master stroke. The sentiment is so positive in both Cuba and the US that nobody in either country will be able to reverse normalization now and those who try will pay the price. The overriding rationale is if we can do business and have diplomatic relations with a communist human rights abuser like China, why not Cuba. Now the White House is not ruling out a US visit by the Castros. No question that Cuba will develop very fast now, maybe faster than China did. I see no reason why companies like Intel and Western Digital will not transplant factories there in addition to Ford and Chrysler, not to mention a range of lower-tech businesses.

Cuba will be treated with kid gloves in trade with preferential tariffs and access to US markets. Third countries will try to play the local-content rules in Cuba (that will likely be similar to NAFTA) to access the US and Canadian markets and in turn, Central and South American markets too. I daresay, most American companies (and people) will prefer Cuba to Mexico, not just in the availability of qualified and disciplined manpower--Cuba will remain a communist dictatorship like China for now--but also in the Caribbean ambiance. Cigars, rum, music, food--it's going to be a real party.

India has a long history of friendship with Cuba in a real sense and can now cash in the goodwill. We have a lot to offer from textiles and garments to pharma and info tech. Cuba will need all of it to meet a huge new market overnight. The first-mover advantage is real here.

[Victor]

I am still not sure- How does it affect India. Rather why should it significantly affect India.

The US has trade issues with India but if we play our cards right, Cuba can be the jumping-off point for Indian pharmaceuticals, information technology, textiles, garments and a whole lot more all within 90 miles of US shores, taking advantage of the likely very generous trade conditions with North America. Cuba is far more qualified to receive help in these areas from us than Sri Lank, Nepal and Bangladesh, and far more lucrative.

[Kashi]

The US has trade issues with India but if we play our cards right, Cuba can be the jumping-off point for Indian pharmaceuticals, information technology, textiles, garments and a whole lot more all within 90 miles of US shores, taking advantage of the likely very generous trade conditions with North America. Cuba is far more qualified to receive help in these areas from us than Sri Lank, Nepal and Bangladesh, and far more lucrative.

I understand that bit. But India should have been doing that regardless of US normalisation of relations with Cuba.

[Shreeman]

India is not an export oriented economy. Hasnt been one forever. The exports are raw materials and people. Until this decade the trickle of hard currency from "remittances" played a role in developing the economy that can noit be understated.

Re. cuba, the embargo is not going away. There is a quid pro quo on telecom with US. There is an opportunity but I would bve imporessed if India made even a penny from it. And by a penny I mean $1B. The trade ius at $10M, $12M wont mean much.

[saip]

Just a q. Is it 'effect' or 'affect'?

[krishnan]

Mallikarjuna retweeted
DPRK News Service ‏@DPRK_News 4m4 minutes ago

In futile effort to ward off bankruptcy, U.S. mobster president Obama begs people of Cuba for foreign aid and investment.

[Victor]

Just a q. Is it 'effect' or 'affect'?

Both can be used as verb or noun although 'effect' is used more often as a noun. Afaik, its ok in Inglish.

[Victor]

But India should have been doing that regardless of US normalisation of relations with Cuba.

Cuba after the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of COMECON, didn't have a viable market for any meaningful economic activity but now it can become the gateway to a huge one. Also, local laws have been stifling for business--license Raj, govt-ownership etc. Still, some little trade is done in pharma, chemicals, plastics etc. It's a different ball game now.

[Austin]

Castro daughter: US 'dreaming' if they think Cuba will return to capitalism

The daughter of Cuban President Raul Castro said on Thursday the United States "must be dreaming" if it thinks Cuba will return to capitalism after both countries agreed to normalise diplomatic relations

Speaking in Havana, Mariela Castro, said the island nation would not return "to being a servile country to hegemonic interests of the most powerful financial groups in the US".

US President Barack Obama said on Wednesday the US is re-establishing long-broken diplomatic relations with Cuba - a historic shift that could revitalise the flow of money and people across the narrow waters that separate the two nations.

Cubans welcomed Wednesday's announcement with optimism and a measure of caution, especially among officials in the Castro Government.

The shift in US-Cuba policy was the culmination of 18 months of secret talks between both countries that included a series of meetings in Canada and the personal involvement of Pope Francis.

[Austin]

I think Obama establishing Diplomatic Relation with Cuba is really all political thing , Obama Tenure in Foreign Policy has been a disaster something the Republican will make a big point in 2016 election.

With Hillary as nominee for 2016 and Bengazi shadow over her she too needs Obama to show some success

This Cuba thinge would be portrayed by Dems as one major FP succeess by Obama and Florida has huge Cuban migrant and a crucial state for Demps so this show go well with the vote bank.

All in All its a political move to gain traction in 2016 election.

Could Obama’s Cuba Policy Help Democrats in 2016?

[Victor]

Castro daughter: US 'dreaming' if they think Cuba will return to capitalism

The Cuban diaspora in the US are mostly young and want to go back to the homeland they have never seen to explore and interact. They are proud of their heritage and culture and will be involved in one way or another in bettering the lives of Cubans as they see it. What elites like the Castros say is totally irrelevant in the face of this coming onslaught and increasingly so in view of the collapse of global communism. When ordinary Cubans begin to visit their friends and family in the US, things will almost certainly change.

[Austin]

^^ Cuba survived all these years without the so called diaspora and the so called establishing diplomatic relations by Obama was for their own Vote Bank Politics by these cuban diaspora who might end up voting for Democrats.

US failed to bring down the cuban government via the USAID and the many failed assasination attempt on Castro is well documented .... I would recon US will still continue to bring down the Raul castro government that wont change a bit.

There was nothing in there substance wise for US to keep the sanction/no diplomatic relation in first place other then their own internal politics and there were many call from years and decades to remove these sanctions

Politically its a smart move by Obama considering election is just 2 years from now he can use it in all the election rally beyond his Hope Speeches that no one is buying in US these days but realistically for Cuban people and economy there is nothing in it the sanction still exisits and Obama says it would take time to remove those i.e if at all they do.

[chanakyaa]

Cuba Gave Russia Right to Spy, Fly Bombers Months Before Obama Deal

Just eight months before President Barack Obama dropped his surprise announcement that the U.S. will be opening diplomatic relations and easing economic restrictions on Cuba, the Castro government signed a new security and intelligence agreement with Russia.

Now, U.S. intelligence agencies fear that Obama's actions on Cuba threaten to reignite the dangers of the Cold War's confrontations, when the Cuban Missile Crisis came perilously close to triggering a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

On May 16, Col. Alejandro Castro, son of Cuban leader Raul Castro, and Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian Federal Security Service, formerly the Soviet spy agency the KGB, announced that the two countries had signed an agreement that could make it easier for Russia to fly nuclear bombers over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, The Washington Times reported.
.......

[abhischekcc]

Why did US normalize now - China:

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-cuba-skip- ... ey-1575560