Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by member_29294 »

hanumadu wrote:At some point of time, with no new wells coming on line and current wells drying up, the supply has to dwindle. Its at least 5 years before electric cars take over big time causing a downfall in oil demand. So between shale oil getting reduced and electric cars taking over, I see 3 to 4 years of oil at greater than 50$/barrel or even closer to 80$/barrel.
If oil price gets that high when electric cars become viable, then even more people will start switching at a faster rate and governments will give even more incentives for electric cars. Thereby driving down demand and creating more surplus. Especially if European cities like Paris actually start to ban diesel vehicles by 2020 like they are talking about now.

Just like how the iPhone and smartphone dominated Nokia and Blackberry in just 5 short years, I feel like electric cars are market disrupting forces will take over the market in a similarly quick fashion once they become viable. At least much faster than supply scaling down from lack of new investment.
ThiruV wrote: Shale extraction is closer to 100$ per barrel compared to between ~6$ (for KSA) and ~20$ (for russia), and thus not competitive in US markets or in the intl market.
Where are u getting the $100 Shale oil from? I know KSA and Russia have always been low-cost producers, but Shale has always been technology limited with costs going down every year. As I showed you in the link and video, most counties in the largest oil-producing state in America, Texas, are viable at even $30 oil.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by member_29325 »

chakra.in wrote: Where are u getting the $100 Shale oil from? I know KSA and Russia have always been low-cost producers
Link posted earlier in this thread in a post by me and even earlier by others.
If oil price gets that high when electric cars become viable, then even more people will start switching at a faster rate and governments will give even more incentives for electric cars. Thereby driving down demand and creating more surplus. Especially if European cities like Paris actually start to ban diesel vehicles by 2020 like they are talking about now.
Sourcing materials for the car batteries may not be viable, so mass production is not a given, but what you say may happen.
most counties in the largest oil-producing state in America, Texas, are viable at even $30 oil.
Shale is also produced in Pennsylvania and Tar sands in alberta -- these cannot produce oil at 30$.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by member_29294 »

^ I am still not seeing +$100 though, only ~$70 in 2014, from the knoema research link you posted.

From a more recent August 2015 report from Moody that has been quoted by a lot of US financial new sources I read:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_332455

"The rated portfolio median leveraged full-cycle cost of $42/boe is sufficiently low enough to withstand a period of weak commodity prices,"

But more importantly, on actual production figures. A 2015 Report by the US Department of Energy, which I consider the most reliable source, also states that US oil production will continue and grow in both the reference cases and low oil cases from 2015-2020 and beyond:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/aeo/#/?id=14-AE ... ourcekey=0 (scroll down to table of US total production)

So overall I am not predicting or expecting some massive drop in US production anytime soon. Low oil prices were present in 2015 when the report on production projections was made, and they didn't drop it by any meaningful amount when you consider 1/2 of all US oil is from Shale.

EDIT:

If you compare the high oil and low oil scenarios on the US Department of Energy analytics:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/aeo/#/?id=14-AE ... ourcekey=0

You can see in the high oil scenario 12.29 million barrels produced vs the low oil scenario 9.96 million barrels produced. That is what SA is trying to prevent. They can cull future shale-oil expansion, but I am just not seeing the possibility of them collapsing production in half like others are insisting by keeping oil prices low. And of course if they ever let oil get high price +$100 again, that +12 million barrels of oil a day omen would hang over their heads. So I don't think they will ever let it happen.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by member_29325 »

chakra.in wrote: ^ I am still not seeing +$100 though, only ~$70 in 2014, from the knoema research link you posted.
I am not going to quibble about minor details -- 70$ for extraction is expensive enough to be uncompetitive, when competitors extracting it for a fourth of the price. Bad loans in the US shale sector are a reality, if you do some research on the companies involved -- there was a link to a report in one of these threads recently, and this was validated independently by someone studying this sector a couple of weeks ago. Anyway, not really relevant beyond a point to the global picture outside the next few years.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Chakra.in wrote:
hanumadu wrote:At some point of time, with no new wells coming on line and current wells drying up, the supply has to dwindle. Its at least 5 years before electric cars take over big time causing a downfall in oil demand. So between shale oil getting reduced and electric cars taking over, I see 3 to 4 years of oil at greater than 50$/barrel or even closer to 80$/barrel.
If oil price gets that high when electric cars become viable, then even more people will start switching at a faster rate and governments will give even more incentives for electric cars. Thereby driving down demand and creating more surplus. Especially if European cities like Paris actually start to ban diesel vehicles by 2020 like they are talking about now.

Just like how the iPhone and smartphone dominated Nokia and Blackberry in just 5 short years, I feel like electric cars are market disrupting forces will take over the market in a similarly quick fashion once they become viable. At least much faster than supply scaling down from lack of new investment.
That is why I have said it will be at least 5 years before electric cars become the norm and 5 years is a comparatively short period. So there is a period of 4 to 5 years where oil may enjoy its preeminence. Though Gadkari says in 2 years, electric cars and electric scooters will be ubiquitous. Check out his interview I posted in the roads thread. He has a tendency to exaggerate a bit.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by hanumadu »

ThiruV wrote:
chakra.in wrote: ^ I am still not seeing +$100 though, only ~$70 in 2014, from the knoema research link you posted.
I am not going to quibble about minor details -- 70$ for extraction is expensive enough to be uncompetitive, when competitors extracting it for a fourth of the price. Bad loans in the US shale sector are a reality, if you do some research on the companies involved -- there was a link to a report in one of these threads recently, and this was validated independently by someone studying this sector a couple of weeks ago. Anyway, not really relevant beyond a point to the global picture outside the next few years.
Its not about how much margin others are enjoying. Its about if it is profitable for you to dig wells at a certain price point.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

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ThiruV wrote:
chakra.in wrote: ^ I am still not seeing +$100 though, only ~$70 in 2014, from the knoema research link you posted.
I am not going to quibble about minor details -- 70$ for extraction is expensive enough to be uncompetitive, when competitors extracting it for a fourth of the price. Bad loans in the US shale sector are a reality, if you do some research on the companies involved -- there was a link to a report in one of these threads recently, and this was validated independently by someone studying this sector a couple of weeks ago. Anyway, not really relevant beyond a point to the global picture outside the next few years.
Well even if it is +$70 to extract, US Department of Energy still predicts a good, steady +9 million barrels/day from 2015-2020 even if Oil continues its low prices, based off its official reports from the link I posted. So perhaps a tapering of planned production increases while current production continues, but that is still more then enough for US to remain #3 oil producer after KSA and Russia, and a large chunk of the market. And it still gives US the looming threat of always increasing production to get to #1 if oil goes to higher prices. If KSA strategy is to run US Shale out of business it will be several years, perhaps as much as 5, of a market correction of $30-40 oil incoming to really cut US production down. A huge blessing for a country like India :mrgreen:
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

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Chakra.in wrote:^ I am still not seeing +$100 though, only ~$70 in 2014, from the knoema research link you posted.

From a more recent August 2015 report from Moody that has been quoted by a lot of US financial new sources I read:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_332455

"The rated portfolio median leveraged full-cycle cost of $42/boe is sufficiently low enough to withstand a period of weak commodity prices,"

But more importantly, on actual production figures. A 2015 Report by the US Department of Energy, which I consider the most reliable source, also states that US oil production will continue and grow in both the reference cases and low oil cases from 2015-2020 and beyond:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/aeo/#/?id=14-AE ... ourcekey=0 (scroll down to table of US total production)

So overall I am not predicting or expecting some massive drop in US production anytime soon. Low oil prices were present in 2015 when the report on production projections was made, and they didn't drop it by any meaningful amount when you consider 1/2 of all US oil is from Shale.

EDIT:

If you compare the high oil and low oil scenarios on the US Department of Energy analytics:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/aeo/#/?id=14-AE ... ourcekey=0

You can see in the high oil scenario 12.29 million barrels produced vs the low oil scenario 9.96 million barrels produced. That is what SA is trying to prevent. They can cull future shale-oil expansion, but I am just not seeing the possibility of them collapsing production in half like others are insisting by keeping oil prices low. And of course if they ever let oil get high price +$100 again, that +12 million barrels of oil a day omen would hang over their heads. So I don't think they will ever let it happen.
Why would you consider the US DoE as the most accurate source? Heck, the chart didn't even get 2015 right, and it came out in 2015. It assumed the oil price for 2015 to be close to $50, but it's already dipping down to barely above $30, fat chance 2016 will finish at the $48.60 they're predicting, which will throw off the entire projection.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

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DavidD wrote:
Why would you consider the US DoE as the most accurate source? Heck, the chart didn't even get 2015 right, and it came out in 2015. It assumed the oil price for 2015 to be close to $50, but it's already dipping down to barely above $30, fat chance 2016 will finish at the $48.60 they're predicting, which will throw off the entire projection.
Not saying they are infallible, but they are the best source I have seen that actually lists multiple scenarios for US Oil production for the next 5 years. Since they are the government they ought to have access to information that no private entity can match. It is a better baseline than other reports that just list median price estimates. And it shows that Shale, which constitutes 1/2 US production, can survive in conditions well below the $+100 many here are suggesting that it takes to make a profit. This indicates the resilience of US Shale to outside market pressures and that KSA will have to engage in a price war of a $30 Oil market correction that will last many years to really drive them out of business.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by member_29325 »

hanumadu wrote: Its not about how much margin others are enjoying. Its about if it is profitable for you to dig wells at a certain price point.
all of this is OT and besides the point re: geo economics, so I will stop with this seemingly obvious point: if the cost of extraction of a barrel from the ground is twice the market value of the barrel, you are running at a loss....unless the claim here is that US will pay more local shale than the international market, which is reasonable.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

hanumadu, Stop going the rabbit hole. Whole Econ forum is there to discuss prices.
Thanks,ramana
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

X-Post...
Baikul wrote:It would be interesting to analyse how the Syria adventure will influence the world. The wars in Afghanistan from the 80s onwards directly or indirectly impacted the globe, from overt consequences such as the worldwide spread of terrorism to 9/11 to, dare I say it, even how entire western economies reacted and behaved. Among other variants, at an organisational level the major strains of the Islamic virus included successfully more greener hued Sunni organisations such as the Taliban, AlQ and the ISIS, and in general the western world has fought with these in different battlegrounds. Somehow or the the other, Saudi Arabia has managed to survive what are essentially its creations this virtually unscathed.

Now that they have created a battle hardened generation of Shia/ Alawite and anti-Saudi fighters, at the very least I wonder whether Saudi Arabia will get what's been coming to it for a long time.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by hanumadu »

ThiruV wrote:
hanumadu wrote: Its not about how much margin others are enjoying. Its about if it is profitable for you to dig wells at a certain price point.
all of this is OT and besides the point re: geo economics, so I will stop with this seemingly obvious point: if the cost of extraction of a barrel from the ground is twice the market value of the barrel, you are running at a loss....unless the claim here is that US will pay more local shale than the international market, which is reasonable.
Replied in the off topic thread here
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

svinayak wrote:
Virendra wrote: {quote="ThiruV"}
US sending troops to EU to fight the evil russians

Now that the US's ISIS gambit has been stymied by Russia -- they are raising the game in Europe to make Russia spend more on its military.

The long game by the US is to keep drawing Russia into conflicts while the russian economy is in a downturn -- the US clearly feels that breaking up USSR in 1991 did not go far enough. Of all the crises on the planet, the mofos in the US think Russia is the greatest threat! seriously?{/quote}

When shit hits the fan, US don't want to worry about dealing with a hard nut like Russia.
In any future scenario, there are two powers that can really challenge US and severely hurt it - China and Russia
US isn't targeting China right now for reasons that I don't completely understand. Though I can think of two:
1. Economic interdependence part and Govt. treasury bonds etc.
2. For China, the neighboring India can be used as counterweights (and vice versa).
But there is nobody at their disposal to use as counter weight against Russia.
Except that they're by hook or crook trying to force EU in that role.
In an all hell broke loose scenario, the small fishes cannot pose existential threat to US. The big ones can, hence the homework.

Regards,
Virendra
China (economy and political) was built by the help of US to counter the global power of Soviet and later Russia.
Chinese cheap labor was used for keeping the inflation down in US. The heavy subsidy of China govt is being exploited by US business for worldwide profits.
US wants to protect the chinese shipping lanes and merchant ships. These are lifeline of Chinese economy and worldwide trade. US helped in increasing China global trade profile and reach worldwide.

These are the reasons why US is not targeting China
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Gyan »

China is slave colony of USA. The day China tries to be to clever with USA, it will find how quickly its lights go out.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by panduranghari »

While reading the biography of Ludwig von Mises, I felt there are unique parallels of Europe 1937 and Europe today. Rising xenophobia for one. Indians residing in Europe ought to be very careful. We are easy targets and mostly well off( some quite wealthy too).

Things are breaking down.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by JE Menon »

^^ there is some truth to the above. Indians could become collateral damage. Most EU citizens especially under 40 are positively inclined towards India I think, but the are largely unable to differentiate between those following the religion of peace and others. So all brown people are vulnerable...
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

We are seeing three new groups emerging:
- US and its allies
- China and Russia
- Germany and France
And its all about $ vs. Euro.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by panduranghari »

Russia will join Euro one day- Putin

Putin has on record stated Russia will one day join Europe.

SO why all the violent conflagration in Ukraine? Who brought down the MH17 which gave the US to topple an elected government in Ukraine? Rakshaks perhaps already know.



The above talk was recorded in Munich conference of 2007. There seems to be a conscious effort to create a corridor of failed states from the Baltic to the Caspian extending into the West Asian dictatorships to North Africa. In the Syria thread, Satya_anveshi had posted the video of Gen. Wesley Clark where he stated the goal of US military was to topple 7 nations in the Middle East.

Image

The global sea lanes are under complete control of US-UK. This is the current map of the US AIRCRAFT carrier fleets http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html

The Chinese silk road project is mainly to move goods bypassing the sea lanes and use land transport. If the sea lanes are not used, the US looses control of the geo-political game. If Eurasian trade is undertaken via the land using the oil rich Middle East and resource rich central Asian republics, there is a perceptible loss of control of the USA and its sidekick UK.

Now coming to the Brexit- here is a speech by the maestro- Greenspan



A few quotes by Greenspan -

You cannot expect just to print money or do what we're doing now. We're not printing money; we're just expanding the federal bank's balance sheet. But eventually, that will turn into printed money.

Re- Federal Reserve Rate increase - It's one of those questions that I cannot answer. Or I should say, I can answer but won't"

Gold is a currency.It is still by all evidences the premier currency where no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.

Asked about Eurosystem reserve mechanism - it's the reason why, [...] in a renewal of an agreement that the [...] European central banks [have made] about allocating their gold sales [...] that has been renewed this year with a statement that gold serves a very important place in monetary reserves. More information here -

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 26.en.html
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date ... 19.en.html

When asked about Keynes and his Bretton Woods system - the ultimate test at the Mount Washington Hotel in 1944 - Everyone wanted America's gold. In 1775, we printed a whole bushel full of continentals. And one of the fascinating things about that period is the fact, or the first year or two, there was very little evidence that that had any effect on prices, meaning paper . The currency circulated with the same value as specie. And there is an extraordinary lag which exists between actions of that type and consequences.

--

And we are looking at the same thing now. Every currency goes through the phases of life. Dollar is a old man on its death bed. When it eventually dies, there can not be a lacuna of no other reserve currency. Internationally that wont be acceptable. Euro does not start with any great ideals except to prevent warfare within Europe. There are only 2 things different for Euro compared to ANY other currency in the world- its severed its link to a nation state and also severed its link to gold.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

A Manufacturing shift will happen from China to US as a result of 2016 elections.
Sub text is China is also throwing its weight around in world using US trade surplus.

this is big thing next four years.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by svinayak »

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/ ... pe=article

Population control. Wars during history
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ramana »

A few posts from GDF:
abhischekcc wrote:To understand what the impact of the end of oil money will have on the world, we should first look at the impact currently of oil money, and then try to imagine a world without such cash flows. In no particular order, this is where oil money flows:
1. First and foremost, Saudi royal family uses oil money to buy off and placate internal rivalries, both in the government and within the tribes of that country. Lose of oil money will mean internal rivalries will intensify, destabilizing an already unstable regime and society. This instability will attract a whole bunch of jihadis from across the world to bring the jihad back to KSA. (Silver lining).

2. Second, the money is used to pacify an increasingly restive population. Saudi people do not have any real skills to maintain their current lifestyles. Once oil money is gone, the mass of unemployed youth (and there is a serious male overpopulation among the youth in ME) will find it impossible to regain their lifestyles. An important point to keep in mind is a restive young male population is always associated with revolution. The possibility of internal civil war in KSA is very real.
These two are the most important factors. Others are:

3. Whatever surplus money Saudi has is (or used to be) invested in the US stock market. Once they lose the surplus, US stock market will lose the most important external source of funding. At the time of 9/11, KSA had $700 billion in the US stock market, and KSA royals are the only family other that US presidents' that is protected in the US by US secret service. One of the factors behind US stock market weakness is the weakness in oil prices. IIRC, KSA had a $98 billion deficit this year.

4. KSA buys influence in the western countries by buying weapons. What happens is this: their ability to make large purchases means western officials (both civilian and military) are always falling over each other to curry favour with KSA. Because if an officer makes one large deal with KSA means that he is set for life. This is the reason why you hear stories of KSA buying western weapon systems that they do not have the ability to use. By holding out the promise to buy large amounts of weapons, they ensure that western defence officials will always try to keep in their good side. Lose of oil money will mean this promise cannot be made, hence western defence will no longer provide a shield.

5. Money that non-arab muslims earn in the arab countries has given them a lot of purchasing power in their home countries, including India. This has enabled muslim to muscle in on properties from non-muslims. This will stop and possibly reverse, because lose of oil money means expats will be thrown out the arab countries (to provide jobs for the locals), and the returning expats will have to find jobs in India or liquidate their assets.

6. And lastly. Oil money funds terror. Lose of oil money will not end terror, because their are several millions crazy muslims, trained and indoctrinated for nothing except war. Where will they go? Some of them will become mercenaries, and justify their pillaging in the name of Islam. Some of them will return to KSA, etc and bring jihad home. Some of them will setup localised dictatorships. This will ensure the collapse of every state (muslim or non muslim) between the western border of Iran till Atlantic ocean. Also AfPak. Meaning Iran has the potential to become the last muslim state standing if they find a way to survive low oil prices.

Among other muslim countries:
1. In UAE, only Abu Dhabi has the wherewithal to survive, because its money comes largely from natural gas (which is a growing market) and not from oil.
2. All other muslim oil countries are likely to collapse or at least lose influence (domestically and in foreign).

Among non-Muslim countries:
1. The recent shenanigans of muslims in Europe means the rise of fascism is now a real possibility.
2. Indian demographics are against Hindus/Sikhs/etc. We need to arm up. The only silver lining (for now) is that muslims are also mostly without weapons.
3. America? With or without Trump - that is the question. But their economy is the biggest weakness. They have reasons to both support and oppose muslim countries. Which way they will go depends on whether Trump wins or not. (I will welcome Trump and her husband to occupy the white house though :mrgreen: )
Sachin wrote:
abhischekcc wrote:Second, the money is used to pacify an increasingly restive population. Saudi people do not have any real skills to maintain their current lifestyles. Once oil money is gone, the mass of unemployed youth (and there is a serious male overpopulation among the youth in ME) will find it impossible to regain their lifestyles
.....
This will stop and possibly reverse, because lose of oil money means expats will be thrown out the arab countries (to provide jobs for the locals), and the returning expats will have to find jobs in India or liquidate their assets
Good points and this is actually happening on the ground. Last week's Malayalam news papers reported that many more Keralites would lose their job as one more "industry/occupation" is getting reserved for Saudis. That is the mobile phone sales and repairs area. But we must also remember that Saudi Arabia != the Gelf as there are very many other emirates and countries out there where people can go and seek work.
SRoy wrote:Two major weaknesses of mozzie radicalism is over dependence on Gulfs petrodollars and overtly centralized community structure.
One more major weakness would be the whole gamut of "secular" political outfits and political culture of India. Whether petro dollars stop coming or the centralized community structure gets broken up, a pacifist country would still get beaten up by a more stronger willed group of people. Today due to "secularism" the radicalisation of Muslims is still kind of kept under wraps, and they are treated with kid's gloves. Unless this attitude changes, things would not improve much IMHO.
Lilo wrote:
Sachin wrote:
{quote="Lilo"}Dubai cannot sustain w/o oil money of abudabhi which would have dried up{/quote}

Can you clarify? My understanding is that Dubai is already on its way to establish itself as a big port and transport hub. And that emirate can survive like that. The other emirates and Saudi Arabia would find things getting tougher. And we must also realise that brain washing by fanatical Saudis even existed in the late 1800s. The Moplah riots (with the one in 1921 being the most brutal), in British Malabar were influenced by some of the Mullahs from Kerala, who had gone to Saudi Arabia and in some cases were once "exlied" to the place by the British. This was all when SA was a desert, and even the kingdom did not exist in the form we see today.

{quote}(relentlessly target smuggling,drugs,trafficking and black money and hawala and benamis,mafia,gangs){/quote}

You have neatly covered all the sources of dubious income, and this is indeed true. But the problem is that lot of businessmen & politicians (cutting across religions) also rely on these forms of illegal trade. Kerala airports are reknown for the gold smuggling happening through them. The arrests of the criminals will clearly give the trend on which religion's believers do this the most. But when confronted, they also say that the gold they smuggle are not for their personal consumption. It goes to the various famous jewellers in KL, who are Christians and Hindus.
.
Sachin garu,
AFAIK Dubai's economics are propped up by petrodollars from abudhabhi this became clear during 2008 bust.
Re: transport economy of Dubai,
DPW(Dubai ports world) owns some serious container related assets world wide next to Singapore ports but the economies of scale and heft for those investments are based on the scale of cargo being handled in its home port(Jabel Ali).
Dubai was never a good case of entreport (say like Rotterdam) as the hinterland is limited to currently fat GCC and other Arabia which itself will be rife with scarcity in the post oil ME economy.
Purely as a transhipment hub too its location in Persian gulf as opposed to a location along red sea brings its longterm viability to trap into global longdistance shipping through Suez into question (an aspect of transhipment is change of freight to bigger tonnage long distance ships -say destined to massa's eastern seaports) other upstart ports in Indian ocean rim will biteoff bigchunks away taking advantage of the boiling instability of Persian gelf brought on by radical Islam in its last throes .Its final role as a regional hub(for rail/road switchover aspect of transhipment) for the Arabian peninsula is hardly sufficient to give it a global edge in a post oil economy.
Emirates,etihaad,Qatar etc run on the cheap captive oil (and the large jetfuel price differential which sheiks maintain vis-a-vis the other normal airlines in a very ticket price sensitive aviation industry).They invest in the malls and "dutyfree" shopping zones to benefit from dubai's current status as a stopover destination of longhaul flights from massa and Europe(itself achieved by the large masses of migrant, expat and Haj workers trudging to their homes through Dubai and other GCC airports).The current glitter of Dubai attracts all the blackmoney flows into its realestate.Migrant and expat workers and blackmoney flows would have disappeared in the post oil ME economy only Haj piligrims are left and this is why SaudiA is demolishing ancient buildings to make way for shoppingmalls around kabba.

Smuggling and illegal mafia are informal means by which State controls its economy and population (especially the problematic elements) .Yakuza,Russian mafia,triads all work ultimately for the deepstate interests of their respective State backers.They are the original and the best track 2 interfaces to the deepstate s of other countries.
Only in India one sees the Muslim dominated mafia funneling black money out through hawala and importing terror and operating in direct opposition to Indian interests.Curtail their home operations effectively and replace with indic mafia - croud out the anti national gangs first and then eliminate them.This time retain control and watch out (even Dawood would have been working for Congi indian state at some point during rajiv times and got subverted to antiindia by Alciada-ISI nexus).

Re:questions by posters on lack of causation between a ME collapse and the emaciation of Islamic ideology on subcontinent.
Apart from the obvious point on no longer able to support Islamic glorification through funds, on the ideological level
Their qaum is one which looks abroad and seeks rubbed off h&d from them , they had even emperors like Mughals aping Ottoman or Persian glory . Not to say of unwashed mullahs or mujahids who were ever proud of their four father's .When whole world gets to see the Arabs falling at their feet offering their sisters and daughters to rich patrons be they on sex tourism or Islamic pilgrimage just as the pakis are doing for houbara hunting sheikhs or Hyderabadi Muslims are doing, the figleafs protecting the h&d of the qaum will shrivelup and denial based ghettoization will become extreme before the trickle of gharwapsi will convert to a torrent.
In short Muslim identity in India mooches off on the status of the panIslamic identity and it will get crushed once the GCC Arabs are back to their begging or pillaging the piligrim days .And Saudia is literally the hub of the Islamic identity (as its pretty much a hub and spoke model of Sunni world).
In course of time some dump like AlAzhar will sense the need and Arab mood and do some blatant "editing" of Quran to expunge certain verses(it will be vouched in the word called "interpretation") to stem the 24x7 bloodbath in Arabia and will open the door for outright editing of Quran by various groups. This will signal the end of Islamic ideology in the world.

Kapildrave garu,

If a vicious wild animal is put in a small cage even without poking it will begin to chew itself.
So what's the lesson? The lesson is that no one from outside will come to help Hindus, no "divine" is going to intervene to save Hindus and no one is going to reform themselves before they kill you. So the Hindus are on their own. They have to wake up themselves and fight their own war. The sooner they wake up, the lesser difficult it will be to win an already insurmountable war.
Thats a given, but indics should also rise up to the bigger challenge of massa's (and ej ) ideological challenge like how China or Russia are mounting and not get too mired by wrestling with malsis.
Re:Oil exhaustion in Arabia,
Even if oil is inexhaustible in Arabia in near future,Consequences will be the same if oil falls to 10 $ barrel when world switches to electric transport.
Arun Menon wrote:^+1. People underestimate the role played by pride in the petro arabs with regard to subcontinental muslims. Their identity, community cohesion and radicalization all depends on the H&D of islam and the opulence of petro arabs. How can one glorify a religion coming from places Somalia or Ethiopia. People will laugh at you if you do that (as they used to do and maybe still do with regard to Hinduism, despite its innate superiority).

So, just wait and see the fun. Ghar wapasis will eventually make sure that all the banglas and pakis were only breeding for us to convert. A blessing in disguise in the end.
Ruminate.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Neshant
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Neshant »

another screw driver turning technology transfer

the fine art of turning a screw driver
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ldev »

5% of the world's population lives in the blue areas, while another 5% lives in the red area!!
Image
Prem
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Prem »

It means Indians must go out, settle down in all these empty lands marked blue.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by svinayak »

Australia, South America and Africa must be the first wave in 21 century

Then North america and rest of Asia later.
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by chanakyaa »

Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

So what's the big deal? All govts.,except Cuba maybe,employ tax loopholes for their cronies and core courtiers to stash their wealth there.
The Panama expose shows that Britain is the most popular address for wealthy oily/oligarchs to reside in (as Non-Doms),while their wealth can be conveniently parked offshore in land of their choice. However,it could be quite embarassing for many leaders directly named like one Nawaaz Sharif of Pukeistan! The number of Saudi royalty also named,including its king is quite revealing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04 ... lebrities/
Live
Panama Papers: Tory peers, former MPs and party donors implicated in tax haven leak as David Cameron told to take 'real action'The Panama Papers mention many world leaders

Michael Wilkinson, Political Correspondent
4 April 2016 • 11:13am

Dozen world leaders using tax havens to hide their wealth
David Cameron urged to take action as six peers, three former Tory MPs and 'dozens' of party donors are named in leak
72 current or former heads of state implicated, including dictators accused of looting their own countries
Iceland's PM Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson faces calls to quit
Vladimir Putin’s closest allies channelling millions of pounds through offshore companies
10 things we've learnt from the Panama Papers leak

Philip Hammond: 'We are making significant progress' on anti-corruption

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told the BBC: "It's always interesting when information like this leaks because it reminds people who are up to no good how fragile and how vulnerable they make themselves by indulging in this kind of activity.

"We've got an anti-corruption summit here in May. This is a key agenda for the Prime Minister.
Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary

"We're working with many countries around the world including Panama - I had a meeting with the Panamanian vice president just a few weeks ago on this issue.

"We are making significant progress."
11:01AM
Many will fear 'a knock on the door' from law enforcement
Neill Blundell, head of fraud and investigations at Eversheds:

“This is another example of someone blowing the whistle on the perceived use of off-shore tax havens like Panama to commit crime such as evading taxes and laundering monies. Clearly, international law enforcement will be very interested to know whether these allegations hold water and if so, which individuals and companies have been using Panama to hide earnings, launder money and avoid sanctions legislation. These are serious allegations and I imagine there may be many people who will be concerned about receiving a knock on the door from international law enforcement in the coming months.”

10:55AM
South Africa president's woes as good-time nephew mentioned in Panama Papers

More woes are heaped onto South Africa's president Jacob Zuma with the mention in the leaked Panama Papers of a multi-million rand oil deal in the Democratic Republic of Congo involving his already controversial nephew Khulubuse Zuma, reports Aislinn Laing, our Africa Correspondent.

Zuma, whose love of fast cars and the good life has been well-documented in South Africa, represented Caprikat Limited, one of two offshore companies that controversially acquired oil fields in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Khulubuse Zuma

In 2010, a South African Sunday paper suggested that President Zuma had a hand in his nephew's acquisition of the oil fields. They were previously owned by Irish giant Tullow Oil but was handed to Zuma's company by DRC President Joseph Kabila eight months after he discussed them with the South African president.

Later that year, the Panama Papers reveal, British Virgin Islands authorities ordered Mossack Fonseca to provide background information on Zuma, which the law firm had not previously obtained. The same year, Mossack Fonseca decided to end its relationship with Zuma and Caprikat. Both Zuma and the firm have rejected allegations of wrongdoing and claimed the oil deals are "quite attractive" to the DRC government, according to the leaked papers.

Mr Zuma was also one of the directors accused of siphoning billions of money out of a mining firm they had acquired, causing it to collapse with the loss of thousands of jobs.
10:44AM
David Cameron 'must end impunity enjoyed by corrupt elite'

David Cameron’s forthcoming Anti-Corruption Summit must begin the process of putting an end to the impunity enjoyed by the individuals involved in so-called 'grand corruption', according to Transparency International UK.

Robert Barrington, executive director, said: “The Panama Papers seem to confirm the evidence from elsewhere that the world's corrupt elite are gaming the international financial system to launder and protect their stolen wealth.
David Cameron has been urged to take action of tax havens Credit: Oli Scarff

“The only way to stop this grand corruption is through governments, businesses and others coming together and rejecting dirty cash as illegitimate. The time has come to stop turning a blind eye to anonymous purchases of luxury property and goods, refuse to issue un-vetted investment visas and create a legal framework that is fit for purpose in detecting flows of dirty cash.

“The Prime Minister's Anti-Corruption Summit in May is the perfect opportunity to address these issues, but will only do so if the agenda is ambitious and those who are complicit in grand corruption are not allowed into the room to torpedo effective action.”
10:39AM
Sweden's tax authority to investigate names on list

Sweden's powerful tax authority has announced that it plans to investigate the 400-500 Swedish citizens and companies named in the leaked Panama documents, reports Richard Orange.

But Anders Bäck, the head of its tax evasion unit has told Sweden's Dagens Nyheter newspaper that he doubts the real number is so high. "From what I understand, some of the information might be really old, so it's possible that we have already taken action against the Swedes in the list, or that they've already declared themselves," he said.

David Cameron has done "nothing" to tackle tax havens despite his promises, Tim Farron has said.

The Liberal Democrat leader said: “Despite calling last year for tax havens to open their books David Cameron has since done nothing to ensure that UK Overseas dependencies such as the Cayman Islands, Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands give the transparency that taxpayers deserve. Once again the Conservative Government has failed to act until forced to by a scandal.
Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader

“Rather than waiting until more headlines force action, the Government should now commission a full independent investigation into the way the Virgin Islands and others have acted, what the UK Government knew and why they have not used their legislative powers to impose the transparency rules they previously claimed to support.

“For Britain to be associated with this kind of tax avoidance utterly against our values, they are sunny places where shady deals happen.”


The world's media reacts

The world's press are reacting to the Panama Papers leak. This is the front page of Norway's Expressen newspaper, which reads: "Nordea in giant scandal -- list with traces to Putin"
Scandinavian bank on the defensive

Scandinavian bank Nordea is on the defensive after it emerged one of the most active clients of the Mossack Fonseca law firm, setting up as many as 369 front companies for its mainly Swedish and Danish clients, and implicated in nearly 11,000 of the leaked documents, putting it in 11th place in the list of global banks. Between 400 and 500 Swedish wealthy individuals or companies are named in the documents. As of yet, none of their identities have been published in the Scandinavian media.
9:56AM
Iceland's prime minister faces calls to quit

Iceland's prime minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson is facing calls to resign and call new elections, with more than 20,000 Icelanders signing a petition and a demonstration held outside the parliament or Althing this morning, reports Richard Orange.

It has emerged in documents leaked from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca that Gunnlaugsson owned, and then in 2009 sold to his wife for $1, a company called Wintris, which was registered in the British Virgin Islands.
Iceland's prime minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, pictured here in 2014, is facing calls to resign.

Wintris invested heavily in bonds of major Icelandic banks, which collapsed in 2009, becoming a significant creditor. But Gunnlaugsson never disclosed this fact, either when he entered parliament in 2009, or when he became prime minister in 2013.
9:48AM
David Cameron urged to take 'real action' as six peers, three former Tory MPs and 'dozens' of UK political party donors are named in leak

David Cameron must take "real action" to crack down on offshore tax havens, opposition figures have demanded after a massive data leak exposed the scale of efforts by the rich and powerful to hide assets.

Six peers, three Tory ex-MPs and "dozens" of UK political party donors - whose names have not yet been released - are reported to be among scores of global politicians including national leaders identified as holders of offshore assets.

Their identities are said to be in more than 11 million documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca passed to 107 media organisations across the globe, including the Guardian and BBC's Panorama.

HM Revenue and Customs has approached the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) for access to the data and said it would "act on it swiftly and appropriately".

The Prime Minister is a vocal advocate of action to tackle "dirty money" and the Government has legislated to force all British companies to disclose who owns and benefits from their activities.
David Cameron is under pressure to take 'real action' over the Panama Papers leak

But he faces mounting demands - ahead of an international anti-corruption summit he is convening in London next month - to increase the pressure on tax haven UK overseas territories to apply the same transparency.


Mr Cameron's late father Ian is reported to be among the names shown to have used the firm to shield investments from UK tax as he built up a significant legacy, part of which was inherited by the Prime Minister.

There is no suggestion that this avoidance arrangement or others exposed by the leak were anything but entirely legal or that Mr Cameron's family did not pay the UK tax due on any repatriated assets.

"Cameron promised and has failed to end tax secrecy and crack down on 'morally unacceptable' offshore schemes; real action is now needed," shadow chancellor John McDonnell said.

Green Party leader Natalie Bennett said that at the summit "pressure will rightly be on for him to abolish all of the UK's tax havens".

"Can understand young people asking why they should pay back student loans, given corruption exposed," she wrote on Twitter. "1% hasn't played by rules."
9:41AM
'Major French political party' in Panama papers

A "major French political party" appears in the Panama papers, according to Jérôme Fenoglio, head of Le Monde newspaper, which had access to the files. Presumably its identity will be revealed in the coming hours, reports Henry Samuel, from Paris.

Fenoglio confirms that "1,000 French nationals" are cited. These include Patrick Drahi, a Franco-Israeli and main shareholder of SFR, one of France's biggest mobile phone operators. Société Général "administers dozens of shell companies in tax havens", he added.
9:38AM
UK number two in top 10 countries where intermediaries operate

Mossack Fonseca worked with more than 14,000 banks, law firms, company incorporators and other middlemen to set up companies, foundations and trusts for customers.
9:33AM
Australia investigates 800 wealthy people

Australia’s tax authority said it is investigating more than 800 wealthy clients of the controversial law firm Mossack Fonseca after their details were exposed in the leaked Panama papers, reports Jonathan Pearlman, in Sydney.

The papers show that Mossack Fonseca stymied Australian regulators and lobbied to prevent an agreement between the Australian government and Samoa, a tax avoidance jurisdiction.

The provider which was used most by Australians to set up offshore companies was a little-known outfit in Hong Kong called Popular Corporate Service Limited.

Michael Cranston, the deputy commissioner of the Australian Tax Office, said in a statement: “The message is clear – taxpayers can’t rely on these secret arrangements being kept secret and we will act on any information that is provided to us.”
9:31AM
HMRC will follow-up money laundering and tax avoidance

HM Revenue and Customs has said it is ready to follow up allegations of money laundering and tax avoidance among the rich and powerful following the massive leak of confidential data.

Jennie Grainger, the head of enforcement and compliance, said: "HMRC can confirm that we have already received a great deal of information on offshore companies, including in Panama, from a wide range of sources, which is currently the subject of intensive investigation.

"We have asked the ICIJ to share the leaked data that they have obtained with us. We will closely examine this data and will act on it swiftly and appropriately.

"Our message is clear: there are no safe havens for tax evaders and no-one should be in any doubt that the days of hiding money offshore are gone. The dishonest minority, who can most afford it, must pay their legal share of tax, like the honest majority already does."

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, has tweeted this morning that the revelations are "extremely serious".

A St Petersburg concert cellist has been revealed as the lynchpin in an elaborate financial empire that manages billions of dollars apparently connected to Vladimir Putin, a vast trove of documents detailing the offshore financial dealings of the rich and famous has revealed.

Sergei Roldugin, a director of the St Petersburg Conservatory and guest conductor at the Mariinsky Theatre, met Mr Putin in the 1970s and is considered one of the Russian president’s closest friends.

But papers leaked from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca suggest the musician also holds vast assets apparently used to benefit close associates of the Russian president.

Roland Oliphant, in Moscow, has the full story.
8:48AM
Law firm Mossack Fonseca denies wrongdoing

Mossack Fonseca strongly denied any wrongdoing, saying it it has always complied with international protocols and conducts thorough due diligence.


It said offshore firms are used for a range of legitimate purposes. "For 40 years Mossack Fonseca has operated beyond reproach in our home country and in other jurisdictions where we have operations. Our firm has never been accused or charged in connection with criminal wrongdoing.
Mossack Fonseca co-founder defends company Play! 00:40

"If we detect suspicious activity or misconduct, we are quick to report it to the authorities. Similarly, when authorities approach us with evidence of possible misconduct, we always cooperate fully with them."
8:48AM
Leak raises questions over use of offshore companies

There is nothing unlawful about the use of offshore companies. However the disclosures last night raised questions about the ways in which the system can be used - and abused. Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, the prime minister of Iceland, is now facing accusations of a conflict of interest after the papers revealed that he co-owned a company set up in 2007 in the British Virgin Islands, to hold investments with his wealthy partner, later wife, Anna Sigurlaug Pálsdóttir. The country became one of the worst casualties of the global credit crisis.

Mr Gunnlaugsson has been chairman of the country's Progressive Party since 2009 but his links to the firm were not previously known.
8:43AM
72 heads of state linked to massive data leak

An unprecedented data leak has laid bare how at least a dozen world leaders have been using tax havens to hide their wealth.

Millions of documents obtained from the server of a law firm based in Panama that specialises in setting up offshore companies reveal links to 72 current or former heads of state, including dictators accused of looting their own countries, it was reported last night.

The leaked papers show how some of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies have been channelling millions of pounds through offshore companies.

The Russian president has previously called for the “deoffshoreisation” of the country’s economy to reverse a trend of firms being registered in tax havens. Other national leaders revealed to have offshore assets include Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, Ayad Allawi, the former vice-president of Iraq, and Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine.

The data release, dubbed the Panama Files, is said to show how clients of Mossack Fonseca, the fourth biggest offshore law firm, included 23 individuals with sanctions imposed on them for supporting the regimes in North Korea, Zimbabwe, Russia, Iran and Syria – with their companies set up in various tax havens.
JE Menon
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by JE Menon »

Well, Cameron can hardly be the one to talk, his own father is one of those involved with Mossack Fonseca.
ArmenT
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by ArmenT »

From Bollywood Stars to Real Estate Tycoons: the Indians in Panama Papers
This is only the first installment of the list released. Supposedly around 500 Indians in the list. There are more to come.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

How Britain retained an "empire",a tax evasion empire! It became the global haven for crooks of all nationalities,colours ,shapes and sizes,as long as they parked their filthy lucre via Britain in safe (thus far) offshore addresses.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 68791.html
Panama Papers: Britain 'at the heart of super-rich tax-avoidance network'
The UK was second only to Hong Kong in a list of international jurisdictions where the most banks, law firms and middlemen associated with the Panama Papers operate
Charlie Cooper, Jim Armitage, Cahal Milmo
David Cameron with Icelandic Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, who was implicated in the documents AFP/Getty Images
David Cameron is facing calls for urgent action against tax havens in UK overseas territories and Crown Dependencies, as Britain was revealed to be at the heart of a shadowy global network of companies used by the super-rich to hide their wealth.

As tax authorities around the world were spurred to action by the release of 11.5m documents leaked from the secretive Panama law firm Mossack Fonseca, revealing how it helped clients dodge taxes and international sanctions, UK campaigners for tax justice reacted with dismay as it emerged that half of the companies exposed were incorporated in the British Virgin Islands.

The UK was also second only to Hong Kong in a list of international jurisdictions where the banks, law firms and other middlemen associated with the Panama Papers operate.

READ MORE
Downing Street says Cameron family investments are 'a private matter' :rotfl: :mrgreen: :twisted: :eek:
Mr Cameron, who has frequently called for greater transparency to expose offshore tax avoidance and will host an international anti-corruption summit in London next month, faced personal embarrassment as the leaks revealed details of how his late father Ian ran an offshore fund that avoided all tax in the UK.

Six Conservative peers, three ex-MPs and several Tory donors also had links to tax haven networks, the papers show.

In other global repercussions from the exposé, which names 12 current or former heads of state and at least 60 individuals linked to current or former world leaders:

Tax authorities in countries around the world, including France, Australia, Holland and Austria and the UK, launched investigations into hundreds of individuals and banks implicated in the documents.
Iceland’s Prime Minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson rejected calls to resign after being accused of hiding millions of dollars in an offshore company in which he did not declare an interest upon entering Parliament.
The Kremlin dismissed claims that a secret network of loans and offshore deals worth $2bn (£1.4bn) had enriched members of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle as politically-motivated “Putinophobia”.
In London, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson declined to comment on whether Mr Cameron’s family still had money invested in Blairmore Holdings Inc, the investment fund run by his late father Ian in the Bahamas, calling it “a private matter”.

Tax officials at the Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs said they were waiting to obtain the documentation before making any decision on whether to pursue individuals or other entities named in the leaks from Mossack Fonseca, which has strongly denied any involvement in or knowledge of tax evasion.

World leaders linked to 'Panama Papers'

Jennie Granger, an HMRC director-general, said that the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) had been asked to share the data, which was disseminated among 107 media organisations in 78 countries, and has pledged to examine it “swiftly and appropriately”.

But in further evidence of the UK’s centrality to the global networks uncovered in the papers, three British and Channel Island banks – HSBC, Coutts and Rothschild – were named among the 10 banks that most frequently request offshore companies for their clients.

Toby Quantrill, an expert in international tax avoidance at the Christian Aid charity said the leaks exposed to the extent to which UK-based middlemen and UK-administered tax havens are “at the very heart of this rotten system”.

Oxfam said the UK was in “a unique position” among the countries of the world to “clean up the murky world of tax havens”.

Mr Cameron has faced criticism for failing to secure reforms in all but two of the UK’s overseas territories and Crown Dependencies, which see would see major beneficiaries of offshore companies named in public registers.

READ MORE
Panama Papers expose Government hypocrisy on UK tax havens
The Prime Minister wrote to leaders of countries that operate as tax havens as far back as 2014 urging action. He is now facing pressure to take a harder line, and legislate for greater tax transparency in UK territories and dependencies.

Mr Quantrill said Mr Cameron had one month to take action ahead of May’s anti-corruption conference in London.

“The Prime Minister has the power to clean up a major chunk of the global financial system and in the light of the Panama papers, he should use it,” he said. “The UK must take immediate steps to reveal the real owners of business in the territories that we control so the public can know the truth.”

Meg Hillier, Labour MP and chair of the influential Public Accounts Committee said that while she would welcome action on UK-administered tax havens, international action was needed.

“People wring their hands and say it’s all too difficult to deal with, but we have an opportunity with the Prime Minister’s conference in May, for the UK government to take a lead on tackling all tax havens,” she told The Independent. “If you just do it for UK territories alone, people will just move to Panama or elsewhere. It won’t stop people who want to wilfully hide their money.

READ MORE
Panama Papers: Why is money-laundering so easy in Panama?
Panama company said to have been linked to "crime of the century"
How the world reported on the Panama Papers
Labour MP John Mann, a member of the House of Commons Treasury Committee said that the British Virgin Islands and other jurisdictions should be “thrown out of [the] UK” if they refused to end what he called “tax evasion systems.”

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation (OECD) condemned Panama’s “failure to meet international tax transparency standards” and said the London anti-corruption could be a “critical” moment in the fight against tax avoidance.

The Prime Minister’s spokesperson said yesterday that the Government was working with UK overseas territories and Crown Dependencies on “implementation” of public registers of companies’ beneficiaries.

“The government has taken a range of action to tackle tax evasion, avoidance and aggressive tax planning…Through the HMRC we have already been carrying out an intensive investigation of off-shore companies including in Panama. Clearly this data may be able to assist with that. That’s why HMRC asked the ICIJ for the information and they will act on it swiftly.

“We have been taking action to crack down on offshore evasion. It was the PM that put this front and centre of our G8 presidency and led global efforts to improve action on tax and transparency," they said.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

Analysts are asking why the leaks now> Is the answer the US Pres. elections where a maverick,one D,Trump is the republican front runner?

Panama Papers: David Cameron embroiled in tax avoidance row after details of father's Bahamas business interests are leaked
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04 ... lebrities/

Xcpts:
Michael Wilkinson, political correspondent Barney Henderson
5 APRIL 2016 • 5:12AM
David Cameron's late father Ian Cameron linked to Panama Papers
David Cameron urged to take action as six peers, three former Tory MPs and 'dozens' of party donors are named in leak
72 current or former heads of state implicated, including dictators accused of looting their own countries
Vladimir Putin’s closest allies channelling millions of pounds through offshore companies
What are the Panama Papers?
10 things we've learnt from the Panama Papers leak

Panama Papers reveal Briton's links with North Korea front companies

A North Korean front company used to help fund the country's nuclear weapons programme was among the clients of the Panamanian law firm at the centre of a massive data leak, reports said on Tuesday.

With a Pyongyang address, DCB Finance was registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) in 2006, and leaked papers show that the Panama firm, Mossack Fonseca, legally incorporated the company, the Guardian newspaper and BBC reported.

The same year saw North Korea conduct its first nuclear test, triggering the first of numerous US Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on Pyongyang.

DCB Finance was registered by North Korean official Kim Chol-Sam and Nigel Cowie, a British banker who had moved to North Korea in 1995 and went on to head its first foreign bank, Daedong Credit Bank - of which DCB Finance was an offshoot.

Leaked papers suggest that, despite the Pyongyang address, Mossack Fonseca failed to notice DCB's link with North Korea until the BVI's Financial Investigation Agency sent it a letter in 2010 asking for details of the company.

It was only then that the law firm resigned as DCB's agent.

The following year Cowie, who says he was unaware of any unlawful transactions, sold the share he had brought in Daedong Credit Bank to a Chinese consortium.

Both the bank and DCB - as well as official Kim Chol-Sam - were targeted by US sanctions in June, 2013 on the grounds that they had, since 2006, provided financial services to two North Korean entities with a "central role" in developing the North's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

The US Treasury said DCB Finance had been used to "carry out international financial transactions as a means to avoid scrutiny by financial institutions avoiding business with North Korea."

A leaked e-mail from Mossack Fonseca's compliance department in August 2013 appeared to acknowledge a lack of due diligence on the part of the law firm.

We have not yet addressed the reason we maintained a relationship with DCB Finance when we knew or ought to have known from incorporation in 2006, that the country, North Korea was on the black list.

We should have identified from the onset that this was a high risk company.

4:20am
Where are all the Americans?
Fusion, one of the US media organisations given access to the leaked documents, has been looking at the reasons why only 211 people with American addresses have turned up in the data so far. The reason, it says, is that Americans can set up off-shore companies without even leaving the US, in states such as Delaware and Nevada.


Jason Sharman, co-author of Global Shell Games: Experiments in Transnational Relations, Crime, and Terrorism, puts it this way:

One of the forms of companies that’s even more secret than, say, a British Virgin Islands company is a company incorporated in almost any US state. If you form a British Virgin Islands company you have to declare who you are to the person forming the company for you; if you form in Nevada, for example, you don’t… So Nevada is great because it’s much more secret than the British Virgin Islands.

3:01am
HMRC promises swift action
HM Revenue and Customs promised to act “swiftly” against tax avoiders as it joined tax authorities the world over in poring over the apparent treasure trove of information contained in the Panama Papers.

HMRC said it had approached the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) to request access to the 11 million leaked documents it has been handling over the past year.

The British Virgin Islands, which as a British overseas territory is administered by the Crown, has 113,000 shell companies registered with the Panamanian law firm at the centre of the leak, more than any other territory.

1:31am
Panama to launch criminal probe into Panama Papers
The state prosecutor's office in Panama said on Monday evening that it will launch an investigation into revelations contained in a massive data leak of a law firm that created offshore companies for the world's rich and powerful, AFP reported.

"The facts described in national and international communication media publications under the term 'Panama Papers' will be the subject of criminal investigation," the office said in a statement.

The probe will aim to establish what crimes might have taken place and who committed them, as well as identifying possible financial damages, it said.

Panama's president, Juan Carlos Varela, said his country would cooperate with "whatever government and whatever investigation" resulted from the scandal.

But he also vowed to "defend the image of our country," which had been making progress in trying to lose a reputation as a hub for money laundering and other shady transactions.

11:38pm
Panama lawyers at centre of offshore scandal make odd couple
The lawyers at the center of an uproar over the hidden financial dealings of the world's wealthy are an odd pairing of a German-born immigrant and a prize-winning Panamanian novelist whose books sometimes mirror the seedy world of politics he's come across in his work.

In a nation that for decades has been tainted by allegations of money laundering on behalf of drug traffickers and corrupt oligarchs, the polyglot lawyers who founded the Mossack-Fonseca law firm established themselves as the leaders among a plethora of firms in Panama dedicated to creating shell companies to stash wealth overseas.

Created from the merger in the 1980s of practices belonging to Jurgen Mossack and Ramon Fonseca, the firm's staff of 500 employees and affiliates stretching around the world has set up shell companies for everyone from the prime minister of Iceland to Argentine football star Lionel Messi.

Handout tv grab from Telemetro Panama showing Ramon Fonseca, one of the founders of Panama's Mossack Fonseca law firm, in Panama City, on April 4, 2016

Much of that work is now under scrutiny as a result of the leak of 11.5 million records being pored over by an international coalition of more than 100 media outlets.

Fonseca said in an interview on Tuesday that they are genuine and were obtained through an illegal hack.

Fonseca, on Twitter, describes himself to his more than 19,000 followers as a "lawyer, writer and dreamer." But the modest self-image contrasts with the influential role he has played in Panamanian politics and business.

Until recently, he was president of the governing Panamenista party and served in the Cabinet of President Juan Carlos Varela as a special adviser. He was forced to resign in February after the offices of the Mossack-Fonseca affiliate in Brazil were raided and several managers arrested as part of the investigation into bribes paid to politicians by companies doing business with the state-run oil giant Petrobras.

"In Panama they're seen as too big to fail," said Miguel Antonio Bernal, a law professor at the University of Panama.
His brother heads Panama's civil aviation society and his son is consul general in Dubai.
Fonseca's fiction, for which he's won Panama's top literary prize, comes straight from the shady, smoke-filled rooms of political bosses.

In 2012, he published "Mister Politicus," a novel which he says is partly based on his life experience and which he describes on his website as "detailing the convoluted scheming of unscrupulous officials to gain power, and from there, satisfy their detestable ambitions."

Fonseca has some strong pro-democracy credentials in a country whose 1968-1989 military dictatorship spurred the growth of Panama's offshore banking industry. He played a critical role denouncing the 1993 slaying of a Roman Catholic priest, a move that led to the creation of a truth commission to investigate the dictatorship's crimes.

Far less is known about Jurgen Mossack, his partner, who has so far not spoken up.

Mossack's father, Erhard Mossack, was a member of the armed wing of Germany's Nazi party, according to US Army intelligence files gathered by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which has been coordinating the investigation into the law firm and its leaked documents. The AP has been unable to verify the reports.

Fonseca said he had no knowledge about any Nazi ties in his longtime partner's family. He said Erhard Mossack came to Panama in the 1960s, when Jurgen was 13, and worked as an executive at Lufthansa airlines.

"He's not comfortable around the cameras," Fonseca said. "He's a German."

Fonseca said he is speaking out to defend his firm's reputation and is confident there will be no legal fallout from the leak because his company has been ahead of legislation in implementing tighter due diligence controls.

He said he has no idea how the documents - passport photos, stock certificates and emails - ended up in the hands of journalists but said it was unlikely an inside job. Rather, he suspects the company was targeted by hackers from abroad because it's been so successful beating out competitors in the US and elsewhere.

"I think it will be material for my next novel," he said.

10:33pm
Cameron 'does not have any shares in father's offshore investment fund'
A senior No 10 source has told the Telegraph that the Prime Minister does not have any shares in his father Ian Cameron's offshore investment fund.
10:00pm
Edward Snowden puts boot into Cameron
9:52pm
Scale of Iceland protests earlier
Messi embroiled in Panama Papers controversy
Less than two months before football star Lionel Messi is due to go on trial in Barcelona for alleged tax fraud, it has been revealed that he set up a company in Panama immediately after the allegations surfaced in Spain, reports James Badcock in Madrid .

According to the leaked Panama Papers, a day after Spanish prosecutors accused the Barcelona and Argentina player of defrauding €4.1 million (£3.37 million) in June 2013, Mr Messi and his father started proceedings to buy a Panamanian company.

Lawyers in Uruguay representing Lionel and Jorge Horacio Messi contacted Mossack Fonseca in order to complete the purchase of Mega Star Enterprises Inc, a company that was registered but had had no previous commercial activity.

The Messi family has denied any intent to use the company as a way of concealing wealth or evading taxes. In a statement released on Monday night, the family said that the company cited in media reports “has never had funds or active bank accounts”, and that it was “false and defamatory” to suggest that Mega Star Enterprises was designed for tax evasion or money laundering.

According to the Spanish media outlet El Confidencial, which has seen the files, the five directors of the company in Panama received a letter from the football star and his father in which the Messis promised to cover any costs or damages arising from their involvement with Mega Star Enterprises.

The online publication reproduced a copy of the letter from June 2013, signed by Lionel Andrés and Jorge Horacio Messi.

In a 2015 email to Mossack Fonseca and revealed in the leak, the Messis’ lawyers ask for 100 per cent of Mega Star Enterprises assets to be signed over to Jorge Horacio Messi. Lionel Messi has always claimed he placed complete trust in his father to look after his finances.

8:05pm
Hackers leak database allegedly containing details on nearly 50 million Turkish citizens - reports
In what could be another huge leak of sensitive information, the Associated Press reports that hackers have leaked a database allegedly containing details on nearly 50 million Turkish citizens.

The Associated Press on Monday was able to partially verify the authenticity of the leak by running 10 non-public Turkish ID numbers against names contained in the dump. Eight were a match.

The leaked database contains 49,611,709 entries and divulged considerable private information, putting people at risk of identity theft and fraud.

The site appears to be hosted by an Icelandic group that specialises in divulging leaks.

In an era where hackers frequently gain access to sensitive information, the Turkish government is not alone in facing a major breach.

Among the most serious recent incidents, the U.S. government's Office of Personnel Management revealed in April 2015 that hackers gained access to the personal information of more than 22 million U.S. federal employees, retirees, contractors and others, and millions of sensitive and classified documents.

U.S. officials believe a Chinese espionage operation infiltrated OPM's records.
TSJones
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by TSJones »

Why few Americans turned up in the 'Panama Papers'


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panama-pa ... 02690.html
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 69806.html
Panama Papers: the world's top tax havens
According to the Tax Justice Network, considered as a whole then the UK and its dependencies are the worst-offending tax haven in the world
Matt Broomfield
Despite the tropical locations, this is a very British scandal AFP/Getty Images
The world's elite move their wealth through secretive tax havens to dodge billions in tax, according to 11 million documents leaked from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca by an unknown individual.

Panama itself is just one of scores of tax havens worldwide, from Barbados to Bahrain. But, according to one campaign group, the biggest tax haven in the world is right here in the United Kingdom.

A tax haven is a state or territory where taxes are levied at a low or non-existent rate. Benefiting from secretive financial regimens, companies and wealthy individuals can use these nations to store money and move it across borders without paying any tax.

10 of the biggest tax havens in the world

For example, there are more registered businesses than people in the Cayman Islands, where companies pay no direct tax. The tiny islands have a population of just 60,000, but play host to around $2 trillion in banking assets, or one-fifteenth of the global total.

Many tax havens also appeal to private individuals. In the mid-20th century, inheritance tax in the UK on amounts over £1 million was 80 per cent. In Jersey, it was a rather more modest zero per cent, and drove of rich Britons began to move their wealth to the island.

To this day, there is no inheritance, capital gains or standard corporate tax in Jersey. The island dependency now contains $5bn worth of assets per square mile of land.

Rather than physically relocating, businesses and wealthy individuals tend to use an offshore trust or company, becoming 'tax resident' in a country with lax tax laws and generous international tax treaties.

Dodging tax can involve legally questionable activity, and many companies and super-rich individuals prioritise secrecy. Top tax havens such as Bermuda and Switzerland make it extremely difficult, if not illegal, for foreign investigators to examine financial affairs within the haven.

In Switzerland, for example, it took until the 1990s for bankers to release gold stashed by the Nazi government. A 2014 Channel 4 documentary further alleged that hundreds of millions of pounds of Hitler's private wealth vanished into the Swiss banking system without a trace.

Panama is a typical haven, combining restrictive financial secrecy laws with a total lack of corporation tax. As well as providing a notional home for 350,000 "International Business Companies", it acts as a conduit for 'dirty' drug money flowing out of South America.

World leaders linked to 'Panama Papers'

The Tax Justice Network (TJN) publishes an annual "Financial Secrecy Index", listing 80 or so tax havens "according to their secrecy and the scale of their offshore financial activities". According to their rankings, in 2015 the three worst offenders were Switzerland, Hong Kong and the USA.

The United Kingdom itself is 15th on the TJN rankings. While there are more secretive nations, the City of London provides ample opportunity for companies to dodge tax, and the scale of capital flow through London means the UK ranks highly as a global centre for financial secrecy.

READ MORE
Cameron won't reveal whether his family has money in tax havens
Corbyn says Cameron should impose 'direct rule' to end UK tax havens
Iceland Prime Minister quits over Panama Papers tax haven scandal
But TJN says the UK would be ranked as the worst offender in the world if considered along with the three Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man) and the 14 Overseas Territories (including notorious tax havens such as Bermuda, the Cayman and Virgin islands).

In their 2015 Index, TJN state: "Overall, the City of London and these offshore satellites constitute by far the most important part of the global offshore world of secrecy jurisdictions."
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

What as the intention of the Panama Paper-Gate leaks? If it was to fix Putin and the Chinese mandarin elite,it has spectacularly backfired."Blood is thicker than water" they say,and the fact that the British PM CaMoron's father had a secret offshore acct. far outranks in importance the fact of a friend of Putin having one.Global leaders have thousands of friends and acquaintances.

Thus far what Paper-Gate has done is to expose more Western leaders,celebs,etc.,as being the most prolific of those holding secret accounts. Iceland'a PM has been forced to resign. Camoron is on the brink of the precipice, despite his personal denials. After all,did he not benefit in some way from his father?

Our own RB guvnor,has himself come out apologetically over the 500 or so Indian names,defending them, declaring that all are innocent until proven guilty,as some accts may be legitimate! What does he know?

‘Who’s funding this?’ CIA & MI5 whistleblowers question credibility of Panama Papers coverage
Published time: 7 Apr, 2016
Who’s funding this?’ CIA & MI5 whistleblowers question credibility of Panama Papers coverage
Published time: 7 Apr, 2016

While neither Vladimir Putin nor any members of his family were mentioned in the Panama Papers leak, most Western media chose to break the story with the Russian president’s photo. Former US and UK intelligence officers told RT this is no coincidence.

Ray McGovern, a former CIA officer, told RT that the fact that the Western media has been using Putin as the “face” of the Panama Papers leak can be easily explained by looking at the people and organizations behind these news outlets.

“Everyone in corporate press is controlled by corporations that profit on wars and have an interest in creating tensions – all these people in the Western press, like the Guardian, are blackening Putin [for being] a designated villain here. Curiously, his name is not in these documents,” Ray says.

Read more

A general view of the skyline of Panama City. © Carlos JassoRussian investigators to launch criminal probe after Panama data leak
He also claims that the way the story was presented demonstrates “a complete lack of standards on the part of the Western media.” McGovern believes it was “a major mistake made by the leaker” to hand the documents over to the corporate media, instead of leaking them to trusted independent journalists.

“It seems the Western press has lost all sense of fairness. This would be humorous if it weren’t so serious. It seems even if Vladimir Putin was seen walking on water, the report in the Western media would come out as ‘Putin doesn’t know how to swim,’” McGovern said.

Annie Machon, a former MI5 agent, advised being cautious when reading news in the MSM, as there is always an agenda behind what is presented in those publications.

“It’s always worth taking a step back from whatever you read in the media – and seeing who’s funding this, what are the corporate interests behind what is being published in this particular outlet.”

“RT gets slated for that, and I think most western outlets could also be slated for the same reasons. The BBC is state funded, Fox News is corporate funded – there is always going to be some sort of agenda behind any editorial decisions on any medium there,” she stressed.

Machon also suggests that the journalists who broke the story concerning the Panama Papers leaks lost control of the story as they tried to maximize its impact to make it “breaking.”

Read more

© Jason ReedUS government, Soros funded Panama Papers to attack Putin – WikiLeaks
“The Guardian still has this ‘how to hide your billions offshore’ and a video with Putin and his family. I understand that journalistic organizations want to maximize the impact – they should – but you can maximize it and then minimize it by dragging it up too long. It’s interesting that the press seems to have a certain agenda and yet the [primary] interest is the corruption of their leaders.”

Meanwhile, both experts question the speed with which the information contained in the papers is being released, calling on the news outlets to make all of the information public instead of holding on to it, creating a mystery where there shouldn’t be one.

“There is an obligation for the people who hold these documents to release the full text. I would caution people that the main points are not out [yet] – all we see so far is what the corporate media selected for us to see, while certainly [there are] people in the US who do not want [everything] released until after the presidential primaries,” McGovern stressed.

According to Machon, now that the media has “made a splash,” it must put all the information out for everyone to research, which she says is what “crowdsourcing journalism, crowdsourcing democracy” is really about and what is, in her opinion, what the global community needs.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

CaMoron's "thrift with the truth".

Panama Papers Cameron's worst week as PM as he admits he profited from father's offshore trust
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Philip
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by Philip »

Armen-Azer criosis over NK. Hangover from the past.
Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict: patriotism prevails on both sides
As the ceasefire looks shaky, emotions run high on both sides of the bitter Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
People march with an Armenian flag during a rally in Stepanakert.

Marianna Grigoryan in Yerevan and Durna Safarova in Baku
Thursday 7 April 2016

In both the Armenian and Azerbaijani capitals, crowds have been gathering to voice support for their respective militaries after four days of intense fighting in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Amid an upsurge of patriotic feeling in Yerevan and Baku, Azerbaijan claimed on Wednesday that the terms of the ceasefire agreed to just 24 hours earlier had already been broken 115 times.

The view from Armenia
In Yerevan, members of a solidarity march said they knew of friends and family who had continued to board buses to the front line after Tuesday’s agreement. “My two cousins are back from France to go to frontline, it’s incredible,” said Narine Galstian.

“Armenians are the only nation in the world that emigrate during peaceful times, but hurry back home when war erupts,” she said.

In Yerevan’s city centre, well-known activist Helena Melkonian was joined by hundreds of people on Tuesday to assemble aid packages to be sent to Armenian soldiers. She said “recent events have united everyone” despite widespread distrust of the current government. “There is something warm in the air, some kindness that is unexpected.”

The crowd was joined by Max Sargsyan, one of the initiators of the 2015 anti-government Electric Yerevan protests, who said the outpouring of support was astonishing. “Prior to these events many people were skeptical that that people would come together, but everyone stood up at the critical moment. The mood is encouraging,” Sargsyan said.

Armenians are the only nation in the world that emigrate during peaceful times, but hurry back home when war erupts
Narine Galstian
People attend a memorial service for an Armenian serviceman killed in clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Online posts alleging to show images of beheaded Armenian soldiers and the abandoned bodies of a group of elderly residents have further inflamed tensions, sewing doubt the the ceasefire will hold.

Thomas de Waal, senior associate at Carnegie Europe told the Guardian on Tuesday that the ongoing low-intensity fighting “completely destroys the peace process” and made it likely the conflict could once again escalate.

Though Karabakh is technically part of Azerbaijan it has been run by an ethnic Armenian government since the collapse of the Soviet Union. By the time a ceasefire was agreed in 1994 around 25,000 people were believed to have been killed and hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes.

Speaking from Yerevan, Edgar Nersisyan, who joined the crowd packing aid said: “Many Azerbaijanis describe Karabakh as ‘their territory’. For us it is not just a territory, it is our motherland. We will stand for Karabakh till the end.”

The view from Azerbaijan
In the Azeri capital, similar scenes were taking place as citizens gathered to show their support from the other side of the disputed border conflict.

Freelance reporter and blogger Islam Shikhali organised a solidarity event on Wednesday for the many ordinary people who “want to show their moral and material support” for those caught up in the conflict.

“I was shocked when I saw hundreds of people gathering in the city centre and bringing different things that might be useful for daily use. We have been overloaded. We were 2-3 people at the beginning, then it appeared hundreds of young people helping each other to carry the stuff,” Shikhali said.

He said queues of people had assembled outside hospitals across the country to donate blood. “It is real solidarity, maybe this kind of solidarity can only be compared with 1990s, when the first Karabakh war started.”

This kind of solidarity can only be compared with 1990s, when the first Karabakh war started
Islam Shikhali
Azeri supporters gather outside the chancellery in Berlin during a meeting between Angela Merkel and Armenian president Serzh Sarkisian.

Analysis Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is a reminder of Europe's instability
Sudden eruption of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region has come as a nasty shock and must be addressed
The most recent clashes have involved tanks, helicopters and artillery concentrating fire along the contact line, a heavily mined no man’s land that has since the 1990s has separated Armenian-backed forces, in the foothills of the Karabakh mountains, from Azeri troops dug into defensive positions in the plains below.

“Karabakh is the value that connects all Azeris. Everyone with different backgrounds, from different political groups and point of view come together and be the one nation when it comes to Karabakh,” said Shikhali.

In 2014, both sides managed to pull back from the brink after frontline clashes led to the deaths of an estimated 20 soldiers on both sides. But the conditions that encouraged restraint two years ago may have changed, according to Elkhan Mehdiyev, the director of Baku’s Peace and Conflict Resolution Centre.

“Peace for Azerbaijan means the liberation of its territory, restoration of its sovereignty and peaceful coexistence [with Armenia],” Mehdiyev said. “A ceasefire is not peace.”
JE Menon
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread- June 2015

Post by JE Menon »

Just a note: the ethnic Azeri leaders in Nakhichevan (Turkic majority area controlled by Armenia) and the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh (Christian majority part of Azerbaijan) were nutcases of the first order, from what I've been told about two decades ago by an individual who knew both sides well. I don't think much has changed.
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