The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

habal · Post by **habal** » 30 Nov 2015 19:27

Russia has selected the 2nd air field in Syria to be equipped, defended and used. It will be the Shayrat military airbase, SE of Homs city, the work is in progress and will be soon operational, it seems the jets are on the way since info is already out ...

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=34.49 ... 2&z=12&m=b

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2015/11/ ... n-service/

Some more information also available from above source:

1) A pre condition for the use of the air base, safely, is that ISIS must be pushed away from central and eastern Homs Province, meaning Al Quryatayn must be liberated as well as Tadmur/Palmyra.

2) 1000 Russian SF and elite units to be dispached to Syria for special operations, meaning they will engage in specific battles and operations, in my view most probably behind the enemy lines.

Promotional video from Hizballah saying "Palmyra we are coming".

habal · Post by **habal** » 30 Nov 2015 19:43

has Turkey begun a blockade of Russian naval ships across the bosporus .. ??

Not confirmed, but it seems Turkey has got the brief .. after $3 billion cheque
this is on pretext of Turkish naval exercise .. but still a blockade nonetheless

“Turkey has begun a defacto blockade of Russian naval vessels, preventing transit through the Dardanelles and the Strait of Bosporus, between the Black Sea and Mediterranean.”

mmiriww on November 30, 2015 · at 5:16 am UTC

No official news but live tracing shows no other ships moving other than Turkish naval vessels.. Some kind of exercise at the narrowest part of the waterway which is less than 1 km across..

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/hom ... :40/zoom:7

Turkey would not do it without explicit orders from the US as the straits was even given to Turkey that they would never close it unless Turkey was at war.

this is apparently the excuse

coasht guard exercises
http://by24.org/2015/11/28/coast_guard_ ... in_turkey/

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 30 Nov 2015 19:53

Dang! Whut we will think of next?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Nov 2015 19:58

erdogan's russian lessons seem to have begun

Russia destroys Turkish truck convoy headed for Syrian militants -- Erdogan silent

As you can see, it's about five km from the Turkish border. Speaking of buffer zones, Turkey was expecting to make this city an absolute springboard, out of reach of Syrian army strikes. It did not happen. But until today, due to the remoteness of the Syrian army from it, as well as a number of geopolitical reasons, attacks were not mounted on this city.
But today the Russian air force eliminated an entire column of trucks loaded with supplies intended for the militants, there since yesterday. In any other comparable situation, the Turkish government and Erdogan in person, would have complained of Russia bombing trucks laden with Humanitarian Aid, but now, they can't afford to.

Thus Russia continues wiping out all objectives near the Turkish border, utterly ignoring the interests of Turkey (previously observed). It can now be affirmed that Turkey no longer is getting cheap oil, the militants can't get normal supplies, and border crossings by Turkish vehicles will be stopped by strikes from the Russian Air Force

from another link, islam khatrey me hai argument is quickly trotted out......... effing rouges, one and all

http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/11 ... is-is.html

November 24, 2015

AWD News

Posted October 18, 2015

Turkish intelligence chief: Putin's intervention in Syria is against Islam and international law, ISIS is a reality and we are optimistic about the future

Ankara--- Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, known by the MİT acronym, has drawn a lot of attention and criticism for his controversial comments about ISIS.

Mr. Hakan Fidan, Turkish President's staunchest ally, condemned Russian military intervention in Syria, accusing Moscow of trying to 'smother' Syria's Islamist revolution and serious breach of United Nations law.

“ISIS is a reality and we have to accept that we cannot eradicate a well-organized and popular establishment such as the Islamic State; therefore I urge my western colleagues to revise their mindset about Islamic political currents, put aside their cynical mentalité and thwart Vladimir Putin's plans to crush Syrian Islamist revolutionaries,” - Anadolu News Agency quoted Mr. Fidan as saying on Sunday.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Nov 2015 20:36

Aren't we now looking at a de facto war between NATO member Turkey and Russia being fought on third party territory?

Last time something like this happened was Afghanistan after which there was much joy because the cold war had ended and the USSR was defeated by ~~Pakistan~~ er forces of freedom and ~~theo~~democracy.

What has Russia learned since then in fighting a proxy war funded and supported by the US in the background?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 30 Nov 2015 20:47

Some dead rats.

https://twitter.com/CTstudies/status/671311582186573824

J. Faraday
‏@CTstudies
#Syria killed Daesh militant's #Hasakah area: Abu Hamza Al-I'lami, Abu Thurab Al-Maghrebi, Abu Jafaar Al-I'lami and

More on the handle.

Image of a fallen Tochka from Northern Homs:

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 30 Nov 2015 20:54

What are the odds that an American F-16 could get shot down by the Russian AD system mistaking it for a Turkish F-16. Do the Russian IFF system have the ability to distinguish between an American, Turkish, and an Israeli F-16?

If not, there will be more trouble soon.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Nov 2015 21:27

The Russians have the capability to sink the entire Turkish navy in one day, do they not? This is even without resorting to tacnukes, which the Russkis should wisely keep on standby in case the US goes full batsh*t mode and actually jumps to the defense of their NATO "ally" (and by extension, ISIS & co.)

habal · Post by **habal** » 30 Nov 2015 21:28

Russia Sends NATO A Clear Message By Arming Fighter Jets With First Air-To-Air Missiles

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-3 ... ir-missles

video confirms:

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Nov 2015 21:31

Q for TSJones: Would Americans willingly go to WW3 over this? Do they love these Turks & jehadist types so much as to trade LA, NY, Dallas for them?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Nov 2015 21:38

Only if u promise to include DupliCity in the deal

JUST KIDDING!!!!

habal · Post by **habal** » 30 Nov 2015 21:49

https://charter97.org/en/news/2015/11/30/180710/
Russian Ships Waiting for Hours to Cross Bosphorus 13
30.11.2015, 12:05 14,727
Vessels sailing under the flag of Russia are now facing challenges while passing the Bosphorus Strait that connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara.

1
Kyiv-based Center for Transport Strategies reported it with reference to data of an online vessel tracking system atmarinetraffic.com.

As reported, on Sunday Russian vessels were moving on a zig-zag and curved course, waiting for hours for permission to cross the Strait.

Movements of vessels from other countries were without a delay on that day. Russian vessels entered the Bosphorus late in the evening of November 29.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 30 Nov 2015 21:57

In the immediate aftermath of the Paris attacks France was wanting to invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty. However it was advised by some NATO countries to avoid doing that to ensure that NATO would not have complications in the Russia Turkey situation over Syria in the event that Turkey invokes Article 5. Note that this was before the SU-24 shoot down and NATO was already figuring out ways to stay out of the Russia Turkey confrontation. I think Erodogan is overestimating NATO support for his shenanigans.

Closing down the Turkish straits will be an act of war. Russia has already said that Turkey closing the straits would be an "apocalyptic event", whatever they mean by that.

And the far right Russian politician Vladmir Zhirinovsky has advised Putin that if Turkey closes the Bosphorous, Russia should explode a nuke over the straits with the resulting tidal wave drowning the city of Istanbul. So tempers are running high on both sides. Not a good sign.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 30 Nov 2015 22:07

Apologies for this (and as the tweet says, I am speechless)

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1

Haidar Sumeri ‏@IraqiSecurity Nov 28
Images taken from the cellphone of a Da'ish militant in the 5 Kilo region west of Ramadi, #Iraq.

I'm speechless

The US will go to war for backing these shites!

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 30 Nov 2015 22:21

shiv wrote:Aren't we now looking at a de facto war between NATO member Turkey and Russia being fought on third party territory?

Last time something like this happened was Afghanistan after which there was much joy because the cold war had ended and the USSR was defeated by ~~Pakistan~~ er forces of freedom and ~~theo~~democracy.

What has Russia learned since then in fighting a proxy war funded and supported by the US in the background?

Russia learnt wrong lessons from Afghanistan episode. So, it withdrew from all far-abroad fields. Russia thought they needed to protect only their near-abroad(eastern europe) which left the field open for NATO in rest of the world. Funnily, Russia has learnt that this policy does not work because NATO will continue to wield influence in Russia's near abroad. Infact, NATO gets to wield influence more freely because they are not challenged by anyone in far-abroad. This is particularly true in resource-rich countries of middle-east and north-africa. This is the wolfowitz doctrine.

Now, Putin is putting bitterly learnt lessons into action: better to fight far-abroad than near abroad. Better to fight abroad than home.

BTW, China is doing the same. They are facing India in Tibet rather than mainland China. They are holding Manchuria & Mongolia as buffer between Russia and China. They are creating artificial Islands in south-china sea. Basically, they don't want to fight in mainland China. They would much rather fight somewhere else. Thats why Sun Tzu's Art of War puts emphasis on winning the war without fighting it because fighting a war destroys the country(in which it is waged).

Lessons for India:
If India fights in Balochistan or Afghanistan, we don't have to fight in Kashmir or Punjab (atleast, not with same intensity). If we take Lahore, we don't have to worry about Pakistan anymore just as East-Pakistan fell when Dhakha was taken.

member_29247 · Post by **member_29247** » 30 Nov 2015 23:07

In addition to what shiv ji said
Russia made the mistake f allowing EU economic zone to happen and thrive
If Russia had driven a wedge between Germany France versus UK and U.S.
It would not have been treated like a third weld nation with a bum
Pakis actually uncles reverence to TSPakis and KSA terrorists exceeds the respect for Russans who play by the rules and follow the treaties the signs

Exactly JohnnyG sir ji

The utility buffer and free state between India and PRC was lost on our brilliant JLN and all Themistocles babus
This continues even today at all strategic leadership including Military

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 30 Nov 2015 23:09

I have to admit that you guy's faith in vaunted Russian eagerness for war and nukes is simply amazing.

I've never seen such a chorus of Cassandras in a long time. And I grew up when elementary schools practiced nuclear war drills once a month by doing duck and cover underneath our desks or out in the school hallway.

Nobody is shooting American F-16s or will do so. the US won't put themselves in a position to be shot down with out the means to protect themselves. I'll know when they are ready when the USAF 14th FS Samurai arrive in Turkey. Otherwise known as the Wild Weasels.

Turkey will allow the Russian ships to transit the straits. Eventually. Prolly in a day or two when they get the message across to Russia that two can play economic slowdown game. And then randomly there after until everybody sobers up.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Dec 2015 00:50

The Russian ships will open their sewage ports on the Istanbul side as they go through, and the sailors will line up on deck with their pants down, facing away from Istanbul. There, Take THAT!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Dec 2015 01:00

Erdogan says he only SELLS oil for ISIS, does not buy from them.

Russia has ‘more proof’ ISIS oil routed through Turkey, Erdogan says he’ll resign if it’s true
Published time: 30 Nov, 2015 18:32
Edited time: 30 Nov, 2015 20:20

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Dec 2015 01:05

Putin uvach at a multilateral summit:

"We have heard from the Turkish side that this decision was not made by the president, it was made by other people. For us, it does not matter much, the important thing is that two of our servicemen died as a result of this criminal move," he told reporters.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 Dec 2015 01:09

UlanBatori wrote:The Russian ships will open their sewage ports on the Istanbul side as they go through, and the sailors will line up on deck with their pants down, facing away from Istanbul. There, Take THAT!

And who says the Turks might feel offended. They might even love the the pants down insult.

-M

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Dec 2015 02:43

U got a point there: it might be taken as a gesture of ultimate friendship. Instant Detente. Glasnost. Perestroika. Turkish Delight.

The Turkish Navy. Where they separate the Men from the Boys - with a crowbar

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 Dec 2015 02:58

Satya_anveshi wrote:Putin uvach at a multilateral summit:

"We have heard from the Turkish side that this decision was not made by the president, it was made by other people. For us, it does not matter much, the important thing is that two of our servicemen died as a result of this criminal move," he told reporters.

You mean the Ruskies didn't fall for the Non-State actor scam ? Wonder who did ..hmm ? I guess there won't be any 'Dosas' from Russians..

-M

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Dec 2015 03:41

Turkey and Saudki going down will make PakiAwartushmushkinksi half orphan & half widow at this young age , making room for other brothers to woe Munni Paakibai.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 01 Dec 2015 04:14

Now look at this mutually respectful meeting between Netanyahu and Putin on the sidelines of the Paris climate meeting. Erdogan has much to learn on how to be civilized.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Dec 2015 06:13

They are sharing Erdogan jokes

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 Dec 2015 06:47

Paul wrote:What are the odds that an American F-16 could get shot down by the Russian AD system mistaking it for a Turkish F-16. Do the Russian IFF system have the ability to distinguish between an American, Turkish, and an Israeli F-16?

If not, there will be more trouble soon.

say 'kret'.

fyi: the chips are getting irbis radar on their su-35

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Dec 2015 06:58

Oh...you should see this

...Putin and Sarkozy sharing cool dialog for media and to put a mirchi in Obama's behind.

Just week or so later Paris attack happened.

"The world needs Russia" - Sarkozy tells Putin - Oct 29, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFcWQTk_qpU

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Dec 2015 07:08

This one with Merkel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMgtpO2leOE

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 Dec 2015 07:59

sarkozy vs putin is like anthill vs himalayas

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Dec 2015 08:10

lets get real people - turkey, KSA, TSP are too big to be allowed to fail by the western system. so unless the west itself goes down economically which is very unlikely, these 3 munnas will be the tip of the spear in managing the situation as proxies.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Dec 2015 08:17

that huge drum thing is indeed a tochka's back end with the lattice fins
https://img.rt.com/files/news/2b/6c/00/ ... kraine.jpg

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Dec 2015 08:17

Singha wrote:lets get real people - turkey, KSA, TSP are too big to be allowed to fail by the western system. so unless the west itself goes down economically which is very unlikely, these 3 munnas will be the tip of the spear in managing the situation as proxies.

Not any bigger than Russia. If they are trying all kinds of attempt to make Russia fail what to speak of these camel jockeys. They are tip of the spear alright so that is why there is need to make these blunt. It serves Indian interest fine and dandy if one, two or all three of these terrorist supporting nations go kaput.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Dec 2015 08:22

the yellow sunlit hills of palmyra with the huge number of historical sites has a very romantic look to it, if not for the IS sewer rats sitting on it.

habal · Post by **habal** » 01 Dec 2015 08:26

here is succint article. And I expect US+beltway obsession with 'containing' China & Russia hopefully lead to decline and demise of 'west' era. Enough of this racist era with veneer of human rights and lip service to equality and crude monetary policies.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/27/ ... n-eurasia/
NOVEMBER 27, 2015
Will Chess, Not Battleship, Be the Game of the Future in Eurasia?
by PEPE ESCOBAR

Email
CHINA+XI+JINPING

The U.S. is transfixed by its multibillion-dollar electoral circus. The European Union is paralyzed by austerity, fear of refugees, and now all-out jihad in the streets of Paris. So the West might be excused if it’s barely caught the echoes of a Chinese version of Roy Orbison’s “All I Have to Do Is Dream.” And that new Chinese dream even comes with a road map.

The crooner is President Xi Jinping and that road map is the ambitious, recently unveiled 13th Five-Year-Plan, or in the pop-video version, the Shisanwu. After years of explosive economic expansion, it sanctifies the country’s lower “new normal” gross domestic product growth rate of 6.5% a year through at least 2020.

It also sanctifies an updated economic formula for the country: out with a model based on low-wage manufacturing of export goods and in with the shock of the new, namely, a Chinese version of the third industrial revolution. And while China’s leadership is focused on creating a middle-class future powered by a consumer economy, its president is telling whoever is willing to listen that, despite the fears of the Obama administration and of some of the country’s neighbors, there’s no reason for war ever to be on the agenda for the U.S. and China.

Given the alarm in Washington about what is touted as a Beijing quietly pursuing expansionism in the South China Sea, Xi has been remarkably blunt on the subject of late. Neither Beijing nor Washington, he insists, should be caught in the Thucydides trap, the belief that a rising power and the ruling imperial power of the planet are condemned to go to war with each other sooner or later.

It was only two months ago in Seattle that Xi told a group of digital economy heavyweights, “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.”

A case can be made — and Xi’s ready to make it — that Washington, which, from Afghanistan to Iraq, Libya to Syria, has gained something of a reputation for “strategic miscalculation” in the twenty-first century, might be doing it again. After all, U.S. military strategy documents and top Pentagon figures have quite publicly started to label China (like Russia) as an official “threat.”

To grasp why Washington is starting to think of China that way, however, you need to take your eyes off the South China Sea for a moment, turn off Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and the rest of the posse, and consider the real game-changer — or “threat” — that’s rattling Beltway nerves in Washington when it comes to the new Great Game in Eurasia.

Xi’s Bedside Reading

Swarms of Chinese tourists iPhoning away and buying everything in sight in major Western capitals already prefigure a Eurasian future closely tied to and anchored by a Chinese economy turbo-charging toward that third industrial revolution. If all goes according to plan, it will harness everything from total connectivity and efficient high-tech infrastructure to the expansion of green, clean energy hubs. Solar plants in the Gobi desert, anyone?

Yes, Xi is a reader of economic and social theorist Jeremy Rifkin, who first conceived of a possible third industrial revolution powered by both the Internet and renewable energy sources.

It turns out that the Chinese leadership has no problem with the idea of harnessing cutting-edge Western soft power for its own purposes. In fact, they seem convinced that no possible tool should be overlooked when it comes to moving the country on to the next stage in the process that China’s Little Helmsman, former leader Deng Xiaoping, decades ago designated as the era in which “to get rich is glorious.”

It helps when you have $4 trillion in foreign currency reserves and massive surpluses of steel and cement. That’s the sort of thing that allows you to go “nation-building” on a pan-Eurasian scale. Hence, Xi’s idea of creating the kind of infrastructure that could, in the end, connect China to Central Asia, the Middle East, and Western Europe. It’s what the Chinese call “One Belt, One Road”; that is, the junction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Twenty-First Century Maritime Silk Road.

Since Xi announced his One Belt, One Road policy in Kazakhstan in 2013, PricewaterhouseCoopers in Hong Kong estimates that the state has ploughed more than $250 billion into Silk Road-oriented projects ranging from railways to power plants. Meanwhile, every significant Chinese business player is on board, from telecom equipment giant Huawei to e-commerce monster Alibaba (fresh from its Singles Day online blockbuster). The Bank of China has already provided a $50 billion credit line for myriad Silk Road-related projects. China’s top cement-maker Anhui Conch is building at least six monster cement plants in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Laos. Work aimed at tying the Asian part of Eurasia together is proceeding at a striking pace. For instance, the China-Laos, China-Thailand, and Jakarta-Bandung railways — contracts worth over $20 billion — are to be completed by Chinese companies before 2020.

With business booming, right now the third industrial revolution in China looks ever more like a mad scramble toward a new form of modernity.

A Eurasian “War on Terror”

The One Belt, One Road plan for Eurasia reaches far beyond the Rudyard Kipling-coined nineteenth century phrase “the Great Game,” which in its day was meant to describe the British-Russian tournament of shadows for the control of Central Asia. At the heart of the twenty-first century’s Great Game lies China’s currency, the yuan, which may, by November 30th, join the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights reserve-currency basket. If so, this will in practice mean the total integration of the yuan, and so of Beijing, into global financial markets, as an extra basket of countries will add it to their foreign exchange holdings and subsequent currency shifts may amount to the equivalent of trillions of U.S. dollars.

Couple the One Belt, One Road project with the recently founded, China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Beijing’s Silk Road Infrastructure Fund ($40 billion committed to it so far). Mix in an internationalized yuan and you have the groundwork for Chinese companies to turbo-charge their way into a pan-Eurasian (and even African) building spree of roads, high-speed rail lines, fiber-optic networks, ports, pipelines, and power grids.

According to the Washington-dominated Asian Development Bank (ADB), there is, at present, a monstrous gap of $800 billion in the funding of Asian infrastructure development to 2020 and it’s yearning to be filled. Beijing is now stepping right into what promises to be a paradigm-breaking binge of economic development.

And don’t forget about the bonuses that could conceivably follow such developments. After all, in China’s stunningly ambitious plans at least, its Eurasian project will end up covering no less than 65 countries on three continents, potentially affecting 4.4 billion people. If it succeeds even in part, it could take the gloss off al-Qaeda- and ISIS-style Wahhabi-influenced jihadism not only in China’s Xinjiang Province, but also in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Imagine it as a new kind of Eurasian war on terror whose “weapons” would be trade and development. After all, Beijing’s planners expect the country’s annual trade volume with belt-and-road partners to surpass $2.5 trillion by 2025.

At the same time, another kind of binding geography — what I’ve long called Pipelineistan, the vast network of energy pipelines crisscrossing the region, bringing its oil and natural gas supplies to China — is coming into being. It’s already spreading across Pakistan and Myanmar, and China is planning to double down on this attempt to reinforce its escape-from-the-Straits-of-Malacca strategy. (That bottleneck is still a transit point for 75% of Chinese oil imports.) Beijing prefers a world in which most of those energy imports are not water-borne and so at the mercy of the U.S. Navy. More than 50% of China’s natural gas already comes overland from two Central Asian “stans” (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and that percentage will only increase once pipelines to bring Siberian natural gas to China come online before the end of the decade.

Of course, the concept behind all this, which might be sloganized as “to go west (and south) is glorious” could induce a tectonic shift in Eurasian relations at every level, but that depends on how it comes to be viewed by the nations involved and by Washington.

Leaving economics aside for a moment, the success of the whole enterprise will require superhuman PR skills from Beijing, something not always in evidence. And there are many other problems to face (or duck): these include Beijing’s Han superiority complex, not always exactly a hit among either minority ethnic groups or neighboring states, as well as an economic pushthat is often seen by China’s ethnic minorities as benefiting only the Han Chinese. Mix in a rising tide of nationalist feeling, the expansion of the Chinese military (including its navy), conflict in its southern seas, and a growing security obsession in Beijing. Add to that a foreign policy minefield, which will work against maintaining a carefully calibrated respect for the sovereignty of neighbors. Throw in the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia and its urge both to form anti-Chinese alliances of “containment” and to beef up its own naval and air power in waters close to China. And finally don’t forget red tape and bureaucracy, a Central Asian staple. All of this adds up to a formidable package of obstacles to Xi’s Chinese dream and a new Eurasia.

All Aboard the Night Train

The Silk Road revival started out as a modest idea floated in China’s Ministry of Commerce. The initial goal was nothing more than getting extra “contracts for Chinese construction companies overseas.” How far the country has traveled since then. Starting from zero in 2003, China has ended up building no less than 16,000 kilometers of high-speed rail tracks in these years — more than the rest of the planet combined.

And that’s just the beginning. Beijing is now negotiating with 30 countries to build another 5,000 kilometers of high-speed rail at a total investment of $157 billion. Cost is, of course, king; a made-in-China high-speed network (top speed: 350 kilometers an hour) costs around $17 million to $21 million per kilometer. Comparable European costs: $25 million to $39 million per kilometer. So no wonder the Chinese are bidding for an $18 billion project linking London with northern England, and another linking Los Angeles to Las Vegas, while outbidding German companies to lay tracks in Russia.

On another front, even though it’s not directly part of China’s new Silk Road planning, don’t forget about the Iran-India-Afghanistan Agreement on Transit and International Transportation Cooperation. This India-Iran project to develop roads, railways, and ports is particularly focused on the Iranian port of Chabahar, which is to be linked by new roads and railways to the Afghan capital Kabul and then to parts of Central Asia.

Why Chabahar? Because this is India’s preferred transit corridor to Central Asia and Russia, as the Khyber Pass in the Afghan-Pakistani borderlands, the country’s traditional linking point for this, remains too volatile. Built by Iran, the transit corridor from Chabahar to Milak on the Iran-Afghanistan border is now ready. By rail, Chabahar will then be connected to the Uzbek border at Termez, which translates into Indian products reaching Central Asia and Russia.

Think of this as the Southern Silk Road, linking South Asia with Central Asia, and in the end, if all goes according to plan, West Asia with China. It is part of a wildly ambitious plan for a North-South Transport Corridor, an India-Iran-Russia joint project launched in 2002 and focused on the development of inter-Asian trade.

Of course, you won’t be surprised to know that, even here, China is deeply involved. Chinese companies have already built a high-speed rail line from the Iranian capital Tehran to Mashhad, near the Afghan border. China also financed a metro rail line from Imam Khomeini Airport to downtown Tehran. And it wants to use Chabahar as part of the so-called Iron Silk Road that is someday slated to cross Iran and extend all the way to Turkey. To top it off, China is already investing in the upgrading of Turkish ports.

Who Lost Eurasia?

For Chinese leaders, the One Belt, One Road plan — an “economic partnership map with multiple rings interconnected with one another” — isseen as an escape route from the Washington Consensus and the dollar-centered global financial system that goes with it. And while “guns” are being drawn, the “battlefield” of the future, as the Chinese see it, is essentially a global economic one.

On one side are the mega-economic pacts being touted by Washington — the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership — that would split Eurasia in two. On the other, there is the urge for a new pan-Eurasian integration program that would be focused on China, and feature Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and India as major players. Last May, Russia and China closed a deal to coordinate the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) with new Silk Road projects. As part of their developing strategic partnership, Russia is already China’s number one oil supplier.

With Ukraine’s fate still in the balance, there is, at present, little room for the sort of serious business dialogue between the European Union (EU) and the EEU that might someday fuse Europe and Russia into the Chinese vision of full-scale, continent-wide Eurasian integration. And yet German business types, in particular, remain focused on and fascinated by the limitless possibilities of the New Silk Road concept and the way it might profitably link the continent.

If you’re looking for a future first sign of détente on this score, keep an eye on any EU moves to engage economically with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Its membership at present: China, Russia, and four “stans” (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan). India and Pakistan are to become members in 2016, and Iran once U.N. sanctions are completely lifted. A monster second step (no time soon) would be for this dialogue to become the springboard for the building of a trans-European “one-belt” zone. That could only happen after there was a genuine settlement in Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia had been lifted. Think of it as the long and winding road towards what Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to sell the Germans in 2010: a Eurasian free-trade zone extending from Vladivostok to Lisbon.

Any such moves will, of course, only happen over Washington’s dead body. At the moment, inside the Beltway, sentiment ranges from gloating over the economic “death” of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), most of which are facing daunting economic dislocations even as their political, diplomatic, and strategic integration proceeds apace, to fear or even downright anticipation of World War III and the Russian “threat.”

No one in Washington wants to “lose” Eurasia to China and its new Silk Roads. On what former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski calls “the grand chessboard,” Beltway elites and the punditocracy that follows them will never resign themselves to seeing the U.S. relegated to the role of “offshore balancer,” while China dominates an integrating Eurasia. Hence, those two trade pacts and that “pivot,” the heightened U.S. naval presence in Asian waters, the new urge to “contain” China, and the demonization of both Putin’s Russia and the Chinese military threat.

Thucydides, Eat Your Heart Out

Which brings us full circle to Xi’s crush on Jeremy Rifkin. Make no mistake about it: whatever Washington may want, China is indeed the rising power in Eurasia and a larger-than-life economic magnet. From London to Berlin, there are signs in the EU that, despite so many decades of trans-Atlantic allegiance, there is also something too attractive to ignore about what China has to offer. There is already a push towards the configuration of a European-wide digital economy closely linked with China. The aim would be a Rifkin-esque digitally integrated economic space spanning Eurasia, which in turn would be an essential building block for that post-carbon third industrial revolution.

The G-20 this year was in Antalya, Turkey, and it was a fractious affair dominated by Islamic State jihadism in the streets of Paris. The G-20 in 2016 will be in Hangzhou, China, which also happens to be the hometown of Jack Ma and the headquarters for Alibaba. You can’t get more third industrial revolution than that.

One year is an eternity in geopolitics. But what if, in 2016, Hangzhou did indeed offer a vision of the future, of silk roads galore and night trains from Central Asia to Duisburg, Germany, a future arguably dominated by Xi’s vision. He is, at least, keen on enshrining the G-20 as a multipolar global mechanism for coordinating a common development framework. Within it, Washington and Beijing might sometimes actually work together in a world in which chess, not Battleship, would be the game of the century.

Thucydides, eat your heart out.

This piece first appeared at TomDispatch.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007), Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge and Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). His latest book is Empire of Chaos. He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

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Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 Dec 2015 08:31

Russia will have to retaliate against Turkey otherwise any Tom, dick, Harry will start talking pot shots at Russian Main Land also. But when where how is going to be the issue.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Dec 2015 08:40

from turkishnavy.net

The Montreux Convention dictates a 8 day notification period for the Black Sea Powers. This means if any Black Sea nation wants to move their ships through Turkish Straits, they have to notify Turkey 8 days prior this crossing. Therefore if Russian Navy has decided on 24th November after the shooting down of Su-24M, to send more warships to Syria, 2nd December 2015 is the earliest day these ships can pass through Turkish Straits.

habal · Post by **habal** » 01 Dec 2015 08:41

ships can travel to med via gibralter, it takes 14 days as compared to 4 across dardanalles. So this is another irritant, but Russia may take it more seriously than just another irritant. Ultimately Russia may have to wipe away Istanbull to clear these straits forever. Whatever happens it will be sudden and without much warning.

Cameron is itching to come to Syria in fond expectation that there will be some action with coalition building he can participate in. Thjs is also about breaking western monetary system eventually rather than just military. NATO is going all out to prevent that. So there will be no half-measures in this fight.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Dec 2015 08:45

perhaps best bet for Rus is make political inroads into Egypt-morocco belt and use that as a logistical hub.
the republic of north yemen also needs to be recognized and become a rus base on the red sea

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 01 Dec 2015 08:52

You mean like this:

Russia to loan Egypt $25bn for nuclear plant construction - Nov 30, 2015
https://www.rt.com/business/324005-russ ... lant-loan/

The plant which will be built in Dabaa (about 130 kilometers south of Cairo), and will be one of the largest joint projects between Russia and Egypt. It will comprise four 1200 MW nuclear power generators.

According to the agreement, Russia will provide the loan in installments from 2016 to 2018, while Egypt will have to repay over a 22-year period. The first repayment is scheduled for 2029, at an annual interest rate of three percent.

Russia would contribute to the construction of the plant, and provide staff and scientific research.

My first reaction after reading this news was: EU is giving $3.2B to Turkey to not flood terrorists into EU and Russia is giving $25B loan to Egypt to not bomb civilian airplanes. Paki mofos must be wondering on how to get their next bonus payout.