The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2016 05:24

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 4h4 hours ago
According to Yarob Zahreddine in Deir Ezzor:

7 Saudis, 3 Iraqis, 2 Egyptians, and 2 Tunisians were killed by the 104thh Brigade at Al-Jafra

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2016 05:25

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 5h5 hours ago
Every TOW missile captured by the Syrian Army should be given to the Houthis.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2016 05:27

seems hezbollah beat up JN pretty bad yesterday in tamoura south of that chicken neck.

Tweets From Aleppo ‏@halabtweets 11h11 hours ago
"we thank the kingdom of saudi arabia 4 the large quantity of TOW missiles abandoned by rebels in Tamoura" #Aleppo

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 06:51

Hope those awesome triple gray stripes of NATO are still on those tripods when those Houthi TOWs crash into the Saudis' tanks and APCs.

From the Ppl of The United States of America. To the goat-lovers of Saudi Arabia. With best wishes for a speedy 1-way trip to Houristan

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 07:02

Sidorenko Twitter speculates that this may be Gen. Vodkovich's Special Balaclava Fauj:

Arabic graffiti reading "Death to the ISIS." (AFP/Haidar Hamdani)
BEIRUT – Shadowy opponents of ISIS have conducted two attacks against the extremist group in Deir Ezzor, the latest in a series of mystery strikes targeting its members in eastern Syria, according to a pro-opposition outlet.
The first attack occurred shortly after 4 a.m. Thursday, when unknown assailants rigged a ZiL armored vehicle with explosives and detonated it outside one of the group's bases in Deir Ezzor, a city where control is split between the jihadist organization and the Syrian regime.
However, the blast only caused material damage, according to a report published Friday morning by All4Syria.
On Thursday evening, the mystery assailants struck again, firing an RPG round at a patrol of ISIS's Hisbah religious police.
"The operation was executed by masked persons riding a motorbike," All4Syrai reported. "They targeted the Hisbah vehicle near the Ghassan Abboud roundabout in central Deir Ezzor, destroying the minivan and killing a number of people."
The pro-rebel outlet added that after the operation, shots were fired from one of the neighboring buildings to cover the escape of the two people who had carried out the operation.
Following the strikes, ISIS went on alert, closing off most areas leading to its main bases and deploying patrols on the Al-Takaya thoroughfare to search passersby and inspect their mobile phones and IDs.
As with previous attacks in the Deir Ezzor province, the identity of the gunmen remains unknown and no group has yet to claim responsibility.
Perhaps the most notable ISIS resistance force present in Deir Ezzor is the White Shroud, a shadowy Free Syrian Army-affiliated organization that has claimed responsibility for assassinations and strikes against ISIS since it took over the province. From time to time anti-ISIS actions are also claimed by a pro-regime group calling itself the Popular Resistance Front in the Eastern Region against ISIS.
Mystery attacks
ISIS has been hit by a number of attacks over the past year in apparent reprisals for the draconian rules it imposes in eastern Syria.
On January 7, 2015, unknown persons kidnapped Hisbah religious police members in an ambush and burned their vehicle. The fate and whereabouts of the kidnapped men remains unclear.
A day earlier, the decapitated body of the deputy leader of the group was found near the electricity plant in Al-Mayadeen, a small town northwest of Deir Ezzor.
His body bore signs of torture, and a cigarette was found in his mouth. The attackers wrote on his body: "This is munkar [a forbidden action], sheikh," in reference to the smoking ban imposed by the Hisbah.
The tempo of the mystery strikes picked up in the ensuing months, with gunmen conducting a number of deadly hit-and-run shootings across eastern Syria that left dozens of jihadists dead and injured.
In response ISIS heightened its security measures in the Deir Ezzor province, which it seized large swathes of in a campaign that lasted from April to July 2014 and led to the expulsion or assimilation of all openly active rebel groups in the region.
In early April 2015, the ISIS began digging trenches outside towns and villages it controls in Deir Ezzor province. The group also briefly shut down the small town of Al-Mayadeen in mid-April following a brazen attack on a courthouse that killed a number of its members.
The security measures, however, have not stymied the attacks, with unknown gunmen attempting to assassinate an ISIS commander in the village of Al-Tayyana in July 2015.
NOW’s English news desk editor Albin Szakola (@AlbinSzakola) wrote this report. Ullin Hope translated the Arabic-language source material.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 07:05

Another attempt by the Coyotes

On Thursday morning in the Deir Ezzor Governorate, the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) launched a large-scale assault at the strategic Deir Ezzor Military Airport, where they attempted to break-through the base’s southeastern fortifications for the sixth time this year. The terrorist group began their assault by sending a suicide bomber towards a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) checkpoint outside of the Deir Ezzor Military Airport; however, this terrorist attack was repelled by the soldiers manning a guard post before it could reach its intended destination at the base’s southeastern perimeter. Following the failed suicide bombing, a large ISIS force charged the Syrian Arab Army’s defenses at the airport’s southeastern gates, resulting in heavy losses for the terrorist group as they were unable to make any progress after several infiltration attempts. According to a military source from the Syrian Arab Army’s 137th Artillery Brigade of the 17th Reserve Division, ISIS’ death toll exceeded 25 combatants and their wounded were estimated between 40-50, marking the sixth time this year that they were defeated at the airport. Meanwhile, west of the military airport, the Syrian Armed Forces were able to forestall ISIS’ advance at the 137th Brigade’s headquarters near Jabal Al-Thardeh; this failed assault by the terrorist group resulted in their retreat towards the Damascus-Baghdad International Road.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isi ... operation/ | Al-Masdar News

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 07:34

On CNN, of all places!!

'Thank you Russia!' Life after the siege for pro-regime Syrians
By Frederik Pleitgen, CNN
Updated 4:39 PM ET, Fri February 12, 2016 | Video Source: CNN
Nubl, Syria (CNN)"Thank you Russia! Thank you Hezbollah! Thank you Iran!" shouts the man, as he passes us in the busy square.
Nearby, a photograph of Bashar al-Assad beams down from the front of the town hall, and banners in support of the Syrian President hang outside the main mosque.
This is Nubl, a mostly Shia, pro-government town in Syria, so close to the border with Turkey that on the way here our phones constantly switched to Turkish mobile networks.
Until two weeks ago Nubl and its neighbor al-Zahra were under siege; various rebel factions, including the al-Nusra Front and others linked to the Free Syrian Army, controlled the countryside nearby for more than three years.
Then the Syrian army -- backed by pro-Iranian militias and supported by controversial Russian air strikes -- broke through.
In Nubl, al-Assad-supporting local residents are still jubilant; "God, Syria, Bashar, and nothing else," a group of them chanted as we approached.
Many houses are decorated with posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Outside the town hall, 14-year-old Zolfiqar Ali Jawish is selling cigarettes and candy. He says life under siege was a struggle.
"It was tough," he tells us. "Many people got sick and the kids were very scared. But after a while we became numb to the fear.
"Sometimes it took very long to get aid in here," he added. "It was awful because there was shelling all the time as well."
Humanitarian relief
Some supplies were able to get through, so the situation in Nubl was never as life-threatening as that seen in Madaya, where Syrian government forces were accused of leaving residents on the brink of starvation.
But those here say the army had to send aid in via airdrops, and earlier this week, the Syrian Red Crescent says it delivered humanitarian relief to the town and to Al Zahra.
Now, a few weeks on from the end of the siege, stores in Nubl are well stocked.
In the town's market, we saw several stalls offering an array of fruit and vegetables for sale; a barrow full of bright green apples was lined up next to trays loaded with tomatoes and potatoes.
The lifting of the sieges of al-Zahra and Nubl were key victories for the Syrian military not just because they boosted morale among pro Assad forces, but also because this area north of Aleppo is a decisive battleground in Syria's brutal five year long civil war.
The towns and villages here lie between the rebel-held parts of Aleppo and the border with Turkey; fully controlling this area would allow the Syrian army to choke off almost all supplies to rebels inside Aleppo, potentially dealing a crushing blow to the already weakened opposition.
One soldier who fought to end the siege of Nubl offered a stern warning to rebel fighters:
"Their families should encourage them to look for reconciliation or, I say, they will be killed," he tells us. "They have no other option."
'Cessation of hostilities'
But the opposition does not believe that reconciliation is truly on the government's mind; rebel factions say they are simply being slaughtered by Russian air power and a newly invigorated Syrian army.
The U.N. and other aid groups fear a protracted siege of rebel-held areas in Aleppo would lead to a humanitarian disaster for the many civilians also trapped there.
Already, tens of thousands of people have fled the city, heading for the Turkish border, leading to warnings of a surge in an already overwhelming refugee crisis.

Major world powers meeting in Munich, Germany, on Friday agreed on a plan to end the use of starvation and denial of medical aid as a weapon in this conflict. The U.N. has strongly criticized the Syrian government, various rebel factions, and ISIS for not allowing aid deliveries to surrounded areas.
They also agreed to what U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria.
Russia, however, says it plans to continue its airstrikes in Aleppo, as well as attacks against what it believes are terrorist targets across Syria.
The Syrian soldiers we spoke to said they were confident that, backed by Russian air power, their forces could make it all the way to the Turkish border -- dealing what could be a decisive blow to the opposition.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 09:57

Putin’s Aleppo Gamble Pays Off - Mike Whitney (on Counterpunch.org) - Feb 10, 2016

Last week’s game-changing triumph in northern Syria has moved the Russian-led coalition to within striking distance of a decisive victory in Aleppo. After breaking a 40 month-long siege on the cities of Nubl and Zahra, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has encircled the country’s industrial hub and is gradually tightening the noose. Crucial supply-lines to the north have been cut leaving the Sunni extremists and anti-government militias stranded inside a vast, urban cauldron. It’s only a matter of time before these disparate renegades are either killed or forced to surrender. A victory in Aleppo will change the course of the war by restoring government control over the densely-populated western corridor. This is why the Obama administration is frantically searching for ways to either delay or derail the Russian-led juggernaut and avoid the impending collapse of US policy in Syria.

Recent peace talks in Geneva were convened with one goal in mind, to prevent Syrian President Bashar al Assad and loyalist forces from retaking Aleppo. The negotiations failed, however, when Washington’s mercurial allies, the so called “moderate” rebels, refused to participate. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian opposition withdrew “under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, two of the main backers of the rebels.” The WSJ’s admission was later confirmed by Secretary of State John Kerry who according to a report in the Middle East Eye “blamed the Syrian opposition for leaving the talks and paving the way for a joint offensive by the Syrian government and Russia on Aleppo.”

“Don’t blame me,” Kerry said, “Blame the opposition. It was the opposition that didn’t want to negotiate and didn’t want a ceasefire, and they walked away.”

None of this will surprise readers who followed the talks closely. The meetings were surrounded by confusion from the very onset. The US delegation headed by Kerry was focused entirely on reaching an agreement that would involve a ceasefire and stop the government-led onslaught. The Saudis, Turks and opposition leaders, however, were on a different page altogether. They seemed oblivious to the dire situation on the ground where their jihadist foot soldiers were taking heavier losses by the day. Kerry, the realist, was looking for a way to stand-down and save US-backed militants from certain annihilation. But the Saudis and Turks felt they had a strong-enough hand to make demands. The clash in viewpoints was bound to produce disappointing results, which it did. The meetings were cancelled before they even began. Nothing was settled. Here’s more from the WSJ:

“About a half-dozen cities and towns targeted in the new regime offensives have one thing in common: All were held by a mix of Islamist and moderate rebel groups funded and armed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Complicating the picture is that some, but not all, of these groups collaborate with the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. That gives the regime and its allies fodder for their claim that they are fighting terrorism.”

(“Saudi Arabia, Turkey Pushed Syrian Opposition to Leave Talks“, Wall Street Journal)

This should dispel any illusion that that the fighters that are trying to topple the government are merely disgruntled nationalists determined to remove an “evil dictator”. That is not the case at all. While there are a fair amount of indigenous insurgents, the bulk of fighters are Sunni extremists bent on removing Assad and creating an Islamic Caliphate. This is why Moscow refused to implement a ceasefire during the talks in Geneva. Russia adamantly opposes any remedy that allows internationally-recognized terrorists from escaping their eternal reward.

Kerry has deliberately misled the public on this matter. Just last week, he said, “Russia has indicated to me very directly they are prepared to do a ceasefire… The Iranians confirmed in London just a day and a half ago they will support a ceasefire now.”

This is false and Kerry knows it. Moscow has tried to be flexible about other so called “moderate” opposition forces, but when it comes to ISIS, Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen, Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Russian leaders have repeatedly said that that they will not relent until the jihadists are either killed or captured. This is why Russia’s airstrikes continued during Geneva, because most of the fighters in Aleppo are dyed-in-the-wool terrorists.

It’s worth noting that the Russian-led military offensive clearly hews to UN resolution 2254 which states:

… for Member States to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist groups, […] and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Syria, and notes that the aforementioned ceasefire will not apply to offensive or defensive actions against these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, as set forth in the 14 November 2015 ISSG Statement.” (Thanks to Moon of Alabama)

In other words, Moscow is not going to comply with any ceasefire that spares homicidal jihadists or undermines UN resolution 2254. Russian military operations are going to continue until ISIS, al Nusra and the other terrorist militias are defeated.

Even so, Kerry has not abandoned the diplomatic track. In fact, Kerry plans to meet Russian Foreign Minsiter Sergei Lavrov in Munich on February 11 for a meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) to discuss “all the aspects of the Syrian settlement in line with the UN Security Council resolution 2254.”

The emergency meeting underscores the Obama’s administration’s utter desperation in the face of the inexorable Russian-led military offensive. It’s clear now that Obama and his lieutenants see the handwriting on the wall and realize that their sinister plan to use proxy armies to remove Assad and splinter the country into three powerless regions is doomed to fail. Here’s how the ISW summed it up on the Sic Semper Tyrannis website:

“Battlefield realities rather than great power politics will determine the ultimate terms of a settlement to end the Syrian Civil War. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran have internalized this basic principle even as Washington and other Western capitals pinned their hopes upon UN-sponsored Geneva Talks, which faltered only two days after they began on February 1, 2016. Russian airpower and Iranian manpower have brought President Assad within five miles of completing the encirclement of Aleppo City, the largest urban center in Syria and an opposition stronghold since 2012. …The full encirclement of Aleppo City would fuel a humanitarian catastrophe, shatter opposition morale, fundamentally challenge Turkish strategic ambitions, and deny the opposition its most valuable bargaining chip before the international community.” (“ISW recognizes reality in western Syria“, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Last week’s fighting in northern Aleppo has transformed the battlespace and shifted the momentum in favor of the government, but it has not yet dampened support for the jihadists in places like Ankara or Riyadh. In fact, the Saudis have offered to deploy ground troops to Syria provided they are put under US command. As for Turkey, according to The Hill: “Moscow’s Defense Ministry (has) accused Turkey of planning a military invasion of Syria.” Here’s more from the same article:

“The Russian Defence Ministry registers a growing number of signs of hidden preparation of the Turkish Armed Forces for active actions on the territory of Syria,” ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement….Russia claimed (to) have “reasonable grounds to suspect intensive preparation of Turkey for a military invasion” of Syria.” (The Hill)

Turkish officials have denied that they are preparing for an invasion, but at the same time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has admitted that Turkey will not stay on the sidelines if it is asked to participate in a future campaign. This is from Bloomberg News:

“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country should not repeat in Syria the same mistake it made in Iraq when it turned down a U.S. request to be part of the coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein.

“We don’t want to fall into the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq,” the president said, recounting how Turkey’s parliament denied a U.S. request to use its territories for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. “It’s important to see the horizon. What’s going on in Syria can only go on for so long. At some point it has to change,” he told journalists on the return flight from a tour of Latin America, according to Hurriyet newspaper.” (“Erdogan Signals Turkey Won’t Stay Out of Syria If Asked to Join“, Bloomberg)

While it’s impossible to know whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the US will actually invade Syria, it’s clear by the panicky reaction to the encirclement of Aleppo, that all three countries feel their regional ambitions are more closely aligned with those of the jihadists than with the elected government in Damascus. This tacit alliance between the militants and their sponsors speaks volumes about the credibility of Washington’s fake war on terror.

Finally, in less than five months, loyalist forces aided by heavy Russian air cover, have shifted the balance of power in Syria, forced thousands of terrorist insurgents to flee their strongholds in the west, cleared the way for the return of millions of refugees and displaced civilians, and sabotaged the malign plan to reshape the country so it better serves Washington’s geopolitical interests.

The war is far from over, but it’s beginning to look like Putin’s gamble is going to pay off after all.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Feb 2016 10:08

An interesting piece from a Syrian in UK. Kamal Alam is a Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and a Syrian Military Analyst advising several Damascus-based family offices.

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature ... cted-15190

Four years ago, Turkey’s then prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that within in a few weeks he would be praying in Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque, as Assad was about to fall. Similarly, Israel’s most decorated soldier, former Defense Minister Ehud Barak, predicted that Assad and his military would be toppled within weeks. That was at the beginning of 2012, when there were no Iranian soldiers on the ground or Russian planes in the skies.

As another round of Geneva peace talks collapses and the world wonders what’s next for Syria, it is time to begin with the warnings of Henry Kissinger and Zbignew Brzezinski. Kissinger and Brzezinski, the most seasoned and influential U.S. policymakers on the Middle East since World War II, have gone against popular opinion and stated that President Bashar al-Assad has more support than all the opposition groups combined.

It is no secret that the Saudis and Qataris, with full U.S. support, have tried to bribe some of Assad’s innermost circles to defect. The all-important professional military cadre of the Syrian Arab Army, however, has remained thoroughly loyal.

The Syrian Arab Army was mostly a conscript force with only about eighty thousand professionals in its ranks. At the start of the war, much was made of the “defections” of thousands of officers, but these were mere conscripts who never wanted to be in the army in the first place, and would also have done anything to escape conscription in peacetime. The professional ranks, meanwhile, are still very strong and religiously pluralistic. When the Syrian opposition talks about a future pluralistic Syria, they fail to realize that while they may theoretically be pluralists in Geneva, Washington and Vienna, their representatives on the ground are allied with the most sectarian terrorist groups the Middle East has ever seen.

The Syrian Arab Army has held its own for more than five years. Its numbers might have been depleted, as is normal for any wartime military, but a close glance at its military reveals that its core, perhaps unexpectedly to many, is Sunni. The current minister of defense, Fahd al-Freij, is one of the most decorated officers in Syrian military history and hails from the Sunni heartland of Hama. ...

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Feb 2016 10:15

Sit rep from yesterday other than the repulsed attacks on Dier ez Zor:

SAA have made gains towards Tabaqah Airfield and have entered the Raqqa province. Near Damascus they have advanced in Jobar and the Palestinian forces have made gains in ISIS held pockets.

Fresh attacks and clashes in Northern Homs with JN and allies.

In Northern Aleppo, Hezbollah have made gains in Tannourah, south of Zahra and Nubl area. The Kurds are still moving North taking some points off the rebels south of Azaz.

The rebels have rejected the peace accord and they will not participate in any truce from next week. The Kurds were not part of any truce so they will not participate in it anyway.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 10:21

This may have been posted but if not, a good status update and consistency of Russian actions (and US inaction, ill-actions, and lies) in Syria:

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 10:25

Status as of Feb 11, 2016 by southfront.org

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 10:36

US National Intelligence chief James R. Clapper said that the so-called {(US Allied?)} Islamic State (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL) has used chemical weapons during the Munich Security Conference, Friday (Feb 12, 2016).

This is a signalling a concession passing off as climb down:

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Feb 2016 11:41

IS territory infographic

#INFOGRAPHIC: Geography Of #IslamicState (#Daesh/#ISIS/#ISIL) Via @AlalamChannel #TerrorMonitor.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2016 12:29

republican guard deir azzor

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Feb 2016 12:34

Interesting in a paper today,Gandhi's involvement/support for the Khilafat movement,despite their bloodcurling open policy of massacring Christians,etc. he even went on fast for the cause .MKG had no qualms about it! This allowed the KH movement to bypass the Congress for support through MKG .However,later on differences arose between him and the KH movement and they parted ways and they later denounced him.This is considered one of his greatest political mistakes.

The author says that thankfully,Indian Muslims today have no yearning for a 7th century cause when even Kamel Ataturk dumped the idea and brought Turkey into the modern secular age! This legacy the current Turkish "Sultan" and would be "Caliph",Erdogan of ISIS,is being rapidly dismantled.Turkey is paying a heavy price for the Sultan's megalamoania and profligacy,having built himself the world's largest palace,and turned friend Russia into an enemy.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Feb 2016 15:46

Saudi Arabia has moved its fighter jets in to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country. Further announcements have been made that Turkey & Saudi Arabia may launch ground operation in Syria if proper strategy is developed. So Saudi needs Turkey's backing to enter Syria.

Turkish FM further claims that Saudi and Turkey's effort to attack Syria is part of US coalition to strike against ISIS. What a merry go round. Saudi needs Turkey, Turkey needs US and all three want Assad govt to be toppled by rebels. Without the US backing these idiots the war is over. Period. In one year that Russia was not in Syria but the Coalition was bombing ISIS with no positive results, these idiots did not feel the need to intervene. Now with losses suffered by rebels across Syria and ISIS expansions put to stop the Turks and Saudis have the itch to fight terror. The only terror they feel are that of a failed agenda in Syria and Iraq.

Russians are watching and PM Dmitry Medvedev called on his Western counterparts "not to threaten a ground operation" in Syria.

https://www.rt.com/news/332354-saudi-tu ... -deployed/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Feb 2016 15:53

CNN: Saudi Arabia's foreign ministe, If all else fails, remove Syria's Assad by force

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/13/middl ... index.html

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Feb 2016 17:08

from today's turkish zaman newspaper

Former FM: Turkey may lose territory if it intervenes militarily in Syria

Former Foreign Minister Yaşar Yakış has warned that Turkey may risk losing a portion of its own territory should it decide to intervene militarily in Syria amid an intensified military campaign by regime forces backed by Russia.

In an interview with Today's Zaman, Yakış stated that Turkey may look to occupy the region between Azaz and Jarablus in Syria, which is known as the “Mare Line,” to protect rebels from the opposition but warned that Turkey may very well lose the Hatay province from its territory if things do not pan out the way Ankara expects.

“The world would not accept such interference [by Turkey's military in Syria]. It would not allow the border to be redrawn unilaterally. What's more, if the Turkish military faced defeat, Syria might reintroduce the claim that Hatay belongs to Syria,” he explained.

Syria has never approved of the annexation of Hatay by Turkey in 1939, a year after the province declared its independence from Syria and later decided to join Turkey. But Damascus has not pushed the issue forward with any force so as not to harm ties.

Yakış noted that the Turkish military will have to face superior Russian forces if it intervenes in Syria, and he warned that Russia has been waiting for a reason to unleash severe punishment on Turkey since the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber last year.

“The North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] may not invoke Article 5,” he also argued, citing the fact that the aggression would have been instigated by Turkey. Article 5 of the NATO Charter states that an attack on one ally shall be considered to be an attack on all allies. The article was invoked by the US for the first time in October 2001, when NATO determined that the terrorist attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City were indeed eligible under the terms of the North Atlantic Treaty.

“Just as with the intervention in Cyprus, the US may leave Turkey alone,” he noted, adding that Russia and some Western states may want to drag Turkey into the conflict in Syria.
Yakış also pointed out that the Arab world would very much oppose a Turkish incursion into an Arab country, and he gave the example of Bashiqa in Iraq to support his view.

The Arab League condemned Turkey's deployment of troops to the Bashiqa military camp near the city of Mosul in northern Iraq after Ankara decided not to withdraw all its troops from Iraqi territory.

Explaining that the US was opposed to Turkey's interference even before Russia joined the theater of war in Syria, Yakış said that Washington rejected Turkish proposals to establish a safe zone or no-fly zone in the north of Syria close to the Turkish border “because it would be impossible to establish such a zone and ensure its security during a civil war.”

According to Yakış, Turkish options are more limited now that Russia is involved in the conflict with the approval of Damascus. “They [Russia] would be staunchly opposed to Turkish interference,” he remarked.

“It is guaranteed that Russia will be the main actor in shaping the future of Syria,” he stated.
Yakış said he believes the military is much more reserved about the prospect of entering Syria.
The veteran diplomat also questioned the capability of the Saudi Arabian army, saying that it lacks the capability and experience to wage an effective war in Syria.

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_for ... 12084.html

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 18:36

Surprised that the former FM didn't mention the word "Kurdistan". Maybe verboten in Erdogan's paradise. I would think that the first consequence of a military debacle would be liberation of Turkish-occupied Kurdistan. IOW, why assume that it will be Syria that retaliates for an invasion of Syria? Iraq-Iran may well see a great opportunity: A deal from the Kurds to quit bothering Iran and Syria (4 now) if they can get Iraqi and Turkish Kurdistan united, and Turkish Evil Empire crushed. If that happens, Kurdistan will be the most stable and peaceful place in the Middle East.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 13 Feb 2016 19:43

Turkey is a tourist oriented nation, a few bombs or missiles in tourist places will end it's economy.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 21:09

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad vows to retake whole country - Feb 12, 2016

The Syrian leader affirmed his readiness to talk – but he offered nothing to the forces who have been seeking to overthrow him since 2011. “We have fully believed in negotiations,” he said. “However, if we negotiate, it does not mean that we stop fighting terrorism. The two tracks are inevitable in Syria.”

Jan Eliasson, the UN’s deputy secretary general, described the Munich agreement as a “brake” on the conflict, but not a “breakthrough”.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 13 Feb 2016 22:42

There is a new twist in the tale of Syria - The march to Raqqa.

SA and Turkey may actually cross into Syria and the race is to reach Raqqa. This has caused a change in battle plans for SAA, Russia, Iran and even ISIS. ISIS just moved some top Chechan commanders to Libya.

SAA has opened fronts towards Raqqa and this is probably because a Turkey - Saudi combine push to Raqqa is likely. A Sunni state in between Shia Iraq and Shia ruled Syria.

The stakes are high for both SA and Iran.

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Feb 2016 22:48

festivities have begun.

turks started to shell SDF @ azaz.

reported 20 RuAF planes at once over northern aleppo.

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Feb 2016 22:50

a greek defence site has it that 10000 russian paratroopers are on their way to northern syria. further details awaited

slow shelling by turks, maybe to give cover to al-qaeda nusrats

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Feb 2016 22:57

turkey gone wild, time to bring out the cooking pots
Turkey has gone "wild" time to cook it!!!

https://www.rt.com/news/332380-turkey-s ... ern-syria/

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 13 Feb 2016 23:05

deejay wrote:There is a new twist in the tale of Syria - The march to Raqqa.

SA and Turkey may actually cross into Syria and the race is to reach Raqqa. This has caused a change in battle plans for SAA, Russia, Iran and even ISIS. ISIS just moved some top Chechan commanders to Libya.

SAA has opened fronts towards Raqqa and this is probably because a Turkey - Saudi combine push to Raqqa is likely. A Sunni state in between Shia Iraq and Shia ruled Syria.

The stakes are high for both SA and Iran.

Saudis are sending fighter jets to Syrian border ; Since several weeks, most positions busted in norther Syria had militants carrying Turkey flags.

Race for Raqqa: Why Washington Wants to Capture the City - Feb 13, 2016

"Could the US and its allies capture Raqqa or Deir ez-Zor and with it parts of eastern Syria? It could use them as a bargaining chip to gain some negotiation power with Syria and its allies over the future of Syria," the blogger writes.

Of course some may remember what we said here earlier:

When Raqqa is Fucca, Victory (for SAA) is Pucca

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Feb 2016 23:15

Those 10,000 Balaclavas are sorely needed, as the Wild Bunch of KSA and Turkeys ride in to rescue ISIS.

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 13 Feb 2016 23:19

Whoa!! is this real?

Turkey and SA troops on the border tolaunch an attack on Syria even when the Russian bombers are flying overhead. I say, this is the best thing that happened to the World in the last 70 years.. may be more.

Godspeed, everyone.

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 13 Feb 2016 23:22

More on the news.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 975093.cms

Saudi Arabia is sending troops and fighter jets to Turkey's Incirlik military base ahead of a possible ground invasion of Syria. The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, confirmed the deployment in a statement to the Yeni Safak newspaper on Saturday, days before a temporary ceasefire is due to come into force.
He confirmed that planes and military personnel were being sent to Incirlik, in Adana near the Syrian border, but said numbers had not been confirmed. Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, said Russia's intervention would not help Assad stay in power in an interview published on Saturday. "There will be no Bashar al-Assad in the future," he told a German newspaper.
Cooperation with Turkey could prove problematic if Saudi Arabia follows its definition of "terrorists" to include Kurdish fighters, who have been one of the most effective forces against ISIS on the ground.
Cavusoglu's statement also raised the possibility of conflict between Turkey and Russia, which he accused of hitting the so-called Islamic State with only 12 per cent of its air strikes. "Russia's target is supporting Assad, we all know that," he added. "But the question is this: Who will stop Russia doing that?"

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 13 Feb 2016 23:37

Russians from Medvedev to Rogozin warning of a new World War.. and yet NATO blatantly sends troops to Eastern Europe in this scenario as if to say.. we want to provoke this war only. Is this their end game? Making Sunnis and Russians fight to extinction?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Feb 2016 00:20

Race to Raqqa like Berlin will be won by Russian. Kurds, Alawites, Russians and Shias, all known for taking stand and fight it out against many odds. Once Afghans show up on Syrian border , we will know Paki has made their bed to sleep in.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2016 02:43

Massive Turkish Attack on Kurds and Syrian Army

The Turkish army has shelled Syrian government forces and Kurdish targets near the city of Azaz in northwestern Syria, including an air base recently retaken from Islamist rebels.
Anatolia news agency reports that the Turkish military hit Syrian government forces on Saturday, adding that the shelling had been in response to fire inflicted on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey’s southern Hatay region.
The Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions has continued for more than three hours almost uninterruptedly, a Kurdish source told RT, adding that the Turkish forces are using mortars and missiles and firing from the Turkish border not far from the city of Azaz in the Aleppo Governorate. The shelling targeted the Menagh military air base and the nearby village of Maranaz, where “many civilians were wounded,” local journalist Barzan Iso told RT. He added that Kurdish forces and their allies among “the Syrian democratic forces” had taken control of the air base on Thursday.

According to Iso, the Menagh base had previously been controlled by the Ahrar ash-Sham Islamist rebel group, which seized it in August of 2013. The journalist also added that Ahrar ash-Sham militants at the base had been supported by Al-Nusra terrorists and some extremist groups coming from Turkey.

Ahrar ash-Sham is a militant group that has trained teenagers to commit acts of terror in Damascus, Homs, and Latakia provinces, according to data provided to the Russian Defense Ministry by Syrian opposition forces.

The group, which has intensified its attacks on the Syrian government forces since January, was getting “serious reinforcements from Turkey,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during a briefing in Moscow on January 21. A source in the Turkish government confirmed to Reuters that the Turkish military had shelled Kurdish militia targets near Azaz on Saturday.

“The Turkish Armed Forces fired shells at PYD positions in the Azaz area,” the source said, referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara views as a terrorist group.

A Turkish security official told Reuters that the shelling of the Kurds had been a response to a shelling of Turkish border military outposts by the PYD and forces loyal to Damascus, as required under Turkish military rules of engagement.
Turkey’s PM Davutoglu also confirmed that the country’s forces had struck Syrian Kurdish fighters and demanded that the Kurds retreat from all of the areas that they had recently seized.
“The YPG will immediately withdraw from Azaz and the surrounding area and will not go close to it again,” he told reporters, adding that Turkey “will retaliate against every step [by the YPG],” Reuters reports.
A Kurdish official confirmed to Reuters that the shelling had targeted the Menagh air base located south of Azaz.
According to the official, the base had been captured by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar rebel group, which is an ally of PYD and a member of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.
Syrian Kurds are actively engaged in the fight against the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorist group and have been recently described as “some of the most successful” forces fighting IS jihadists in Syria by US State Department spokesman John Kirby, AFP reports.
Earlier, the US also called the PYD an “important partner” in the fight against Islamic State, adding that US support of the Kurdish fighters “will continue.”
Turkey’s shelling of the Syrian Kurds comes just days after a plan to end hostilities in Syria was presented in Munich after a meeting of the so-called International Syria Support Group (ISSG), in which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry, and UN Special Envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura participated.
‘We will strike PYD’ – Turkish PM
Earlier on Saturday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened Syrian Kurds with military action, saying that Turkey will resort to force against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) if it considers the step “necessary.”
“As I have said, the link between the YPG and the [outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party] PKK is obvious. If the YPG threatens our security, then we will do what is necessary,” Davutoglu said on February 10, as quoted by the Hurriyet Daily.
“The leadership cadre and ideology of the PKK and PYD is the same,” he argued in a televised speech in the eastern city of Erzincan on Saturday, AFP reports.
Davutoglu also said that if there is a threat to Turkey, “we will strike PYD like we did Qandil,” referring to a bombing campaign waged by Turkey against the PKK in its Qandil mountain stronghold in northern Iraq, Daily Sabah reports.
Turkey regards the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the YPG, as affiliates of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decade-long insurgency against Turkish authorities, demanding autonomy for Turkish Kurds.
The latest developments come as Turkey continues a relentless crackdown on Kurds in its southeastern region. Ankara launched a military operation against Kurdish insurgents from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in July of 2015, breaking a ceasefire signed in 2013.
Turkey’s General Staff claim that Turkish forces killed more than 700 PKK rebels during the offensive in the southeastern districts of Cizre and Sur. Meanwhile, Amnesty International has reported that at least 150 civilians, including women in children, were killed in the Turkish military operation, adding that over 200,000 lives have been put at risk.
According to the Turkish Human Rights Foundation, at least 198 civilians, including 39 children, have been murdered in the area since August of 2015.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 14 Feb 2016 03:42

As some of us have been saying for some time. The Turks are just about done with preparations to invade. Massive shelling will be followed by shallow incursions and then full out offensive. The end game for them and the Saudis is near. Although this is a time to rejoice, we must also begin preparing for US pullout from Afghanistan. The embers will be falling onto our lands creating infernos.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 14 Feb 2016 03:50

So they're already attacking Syrian troops. This is a big deal as the Russians can't just let Turkey do this without responding.

member_29325 · Post by **member_29325** » 14 Feb 2016 04:21

If I am not mistaken, NATO/US's game plan is to get Russia drawn into this conflict and in a year by encouraging Turkey/KSA into a ground war, and once Russia is in with both feet, exert pressure on Russia from Ukraine...in a 1-2 year time frame.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Feb 2016 04:39

Shanu wrote:Russians from Medvedev to Rogozin warning of a new World War.. and yet NATO blatantly sends troops to Eastern Europe in this scenario as if to say.. we want to provoke this war only. Is this their end game? Making Sunnis and Russians fight to extinction?

They have built the scenario in a TV serial. But in this serial the EU colludes with Russia to subjugate the smaller European states Norway.
NATO becomes a paper tiger which cannot protect smaller states.

Future reality.
Lithuania, Lativia, Estonia will come under the Russian orbit. NATO wont be able to do anything.US will try to protect them.
Syria may be another way to keep Russia under lot of problems so that they will have limited capacity in the Europe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okkupert

Okkupert (English title: Occupied) is a Norwegian political thriller TV series in 10 episodes that premiered on TV 2 on 5 October 2015.[4] Based on an original idea by Jo Nesbø, the series is directed by Erik Skjoldbjærg.[5]
With a budget of kr 90 million (USD 11 million),netflix the series is the most expensive Norwegian production to date, and is so far confirmed sold to the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg.[6][7] It is also streamed by Netflix in Australia, the United States, India and Canada.[8][9]
Okkupert depicts a fictional near future in which Russia, with support from the EU, occupies Norway to restore its oil production. This is prompted by a Europe-wide energy crisis caused by Norway's Green Party coming to power and stopping the country's oil production.[10]

In the near future, unending turmoil in the Middle East has compromised oil production. The United States has achieved energy independence and has withdrawn from NATO. Europe is suffering an energy crisis. A catastrophic hurricane, Hurricane Maria, fuelled by climate change, devastates Norway, leading to the rise of the Norwegian Green Party. Prime Minister Jesper Berg, an idealistic politician with bold plans for Thorium-based nuclear energy, cuts off all fossil fuel production. The EU, in desperation, calls on Russia to initiate a velvet glove invasion of Norway. Russian special forces kidnap Berg and demand that he submit to EU demands or face a full-scale invasion of Norway. At first Berg refuses their demands, but after his kidnappers execute a random civilian, Berg submits, reasoning that nobody deserves to die. Berg is released and picked up by his PST bodyguard Hans Djupvik. To conceal the nature of the occupation, Berg promises the Norwegian people that the occupation is a temporary measure until Norway's oil and gas production can be restored.

member_29325 · Post by **member_29325** » 14 Feb 2016 04:49

svinayak wrote: NATO wont be able to do anything.US will try to protect them.

That has been true for a while, and could explain why Merkel GUBO-ed w.r.t. Ukraine and caused immense harm to Germany's interests.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Feb 2016 04:51

ThiruV wrote:
svinayak wrote: NATO wont be able to do anything.US will try to protect them.
That has been true for a while, and could explain why Merkel GUBO-ed w.r.t. Ukraine and caused immense harm to Germany's interests.

Merkel is the secret card of Russia in EU.
Hence Merkel - Chancellor of the World, is the TIME person of the year -

member_29325 · Post by **member_29325** » 14 Feb 2016 04:59

svinayak, How is Merkel Russia's secret card? She is not entirely pro-Russia.