Yes, it does sound like a big conspiracy theory - however everyone is guilty until proven innocent. If one reads between the lines of the Subramanyam committee report, one will realise what exactly is being hidden. There are some assertions made in that document that are quite startling. I haven't read the document, however I have read the abbreviated portions of it.
The first thing that comes to mind is that the IB director reported to the PM with his report bypassing all RAW, DGMI and JIC.
Subramanyam also states that
it was a serious lapse on part of RAW to identify five TSP Army battalions across the LoC.
On first reading, it sounds ok.
But - that statement talks about battalions deployed "across the LoC", not on our side of the LoC! Secondly, it talks about "identifying" the battalions, and not "locating them" or "detecting their presence". Is this not proof enough to assume that RAW was very well in posession of intel information about the TSP Army batallions even before they moved across the LoC - which incidentally Subramanyam claims to have happened around November-December 1998?
Subryamanam also doesn't explain how he came to this conclusion - did he refer to counter intelligence reports filed from TSP to assess that - or is it just a wild guess - or is it a concrete assertion made by looking into RAW files?
Subramanyam also states that RAW failed to "track" NLI formation movements. He also states that there could be no realistic expectation of hard intelligence about TSPA plans after this. Does anyone see the loopholes in this statement? Isn't it obvious that RAW knew the location of NLI formations but only a mild claim is being made that their "movement" couldn't be tracked - and then all blame over RAW is established.
RAW and LTTE anyone? That is why I mentioned in my first post in rather archaic terms without going into details - this is territory not too many people want to talk about.
B. Raman in his assessment goes to state that RAW could identify 13 out of the 15 TSP Army batallions deployed in NA and Gilgit - however he doesn't explain the timeframe here.
Raman also states that RAW ruled out TSPA misadventure due to it's economic state - guys isn't this total hogwash - when did TSP wait to get rich to screw India?
Why is Raman pleading for a better understanding of RAW matters w.r.t. Kargil?
Raman goes on to mention directly that
the focus has been more on the criticality of its deficient reporting than on the reasons, which should have been gone into in order to put their deficiencies in the proper perspective
Guys, doesn't this mean that RAW deliberately hid something with a valid reason???
To quote him further:
The KRC would have been equally fair to the R&AW, as it has been to the JIC, if it had highlighted the facts that till 1999 the R&AW's main focus in the Ladakh sector was more on Tibet than on the Northern Areas of Pakistan; that the absence of winter posts of the army near the LOC in the Kargil area, which provide the security and logistic cover to the border intelligence collection posts of the R&AW, ruled out any observation posts of the R&AW near the border during the winter; and that the only way of overcoming the resulting handicap was to have given the R&AW a better technical intelligence (Techint) collection capability in this area, but, unfortunately, the R&AW's proposal for improving its over-all Techint capability reportedly remained unacted upon till the intrusions took place.
How convenient!!! RAW didn't have logistical backing from the Indian Army - so they decided to cool off the TSP sector and gaze towards the north-eastern region of Tibet - where they might find some big fat Yaks spying for China!
No intelligence agency can provide a 100 per cent coverage, whatever be its resources and competence. If it can, there would be no wars and no other breaches of security and there would be no need for a separate assessment agency. The setting-up of separate assessment agencies all over the world is based on the realisation that in the absence of a 100 per cent coverage, the only protection against surprises is through perspicacious assessment on the basis of available intelligence and past knowledge of the mind-set of the adversary.
So isn't Shri Raman (ex-RAW babu) assuming how his reports will be dissected and acted upon?
Three of them fortuitously found themselves represented as members of the KRC from which the IB and the R&AW were excluded and used this opportunity to hang the R&AW and the IB from the nearest lamp-post without any examination or introspection on their moral right to do so when their own pre-Kargil performance was not free of serious blemish.
Oh - since when did RAW start demanding "moral rights"???
I am not claiming that all of the last five years were planned and executed in clockwork fashion. But I do think there is reason enough to assume (to me atleast) that the ABV government did want the power struggle in TSP to fire up.
No one asked the Army to ignore the intrusions. They did a very good job of not being able to detect it anyways. The first indication of a large scale TSP intrusion became evident only in the first week of May 1999 when Indian Army patrols got roughed up.
I dunno what 526 lives you are talking about, I think I've read only 470 in reports. Anyways - the death of lives is not calculated and even you know that. Reducing the number of casualties is however an Army job and not of the GoI.
First you claim that I said that the Government allowed Kargil to happen. Then you go on to say that you think that I mentioned armed forces too. Time and again I have noticed you don't read carefully, and then go on to make lengthy assumptions based on mere emotions. Not that they don't make sense but they can definitely be avoided.
The rest of your posts about repudation, izzat, regimental ethos and other stuff is nothing but pure emotion.
Please do not ascribe politics to the Army. They are still free of such skullduggery. In fact to even allude to such silly stuff is most insulting to the organisation that is still free from political affliliation/ bias. And those who do it are bereft of ideas like politicians and are beneath contempt.
Then you have to define what exactly is politics. What exactly were Indira Gandhi and Sam Manekshaw doing in the run up to the 1971 war? Wasn't it evident as to what was happening? Wasn't India training undercover agents even before the beginning of the war? Since Manekshaw refused to get the army ready before November-December of 1971, should we assume that he was playing politics? And that he was a wimp and incompetent?
Abhijit, the GoI knowingly doesn't pick and choose the soldiers it wants to kill - however in due course of war casualties will eventually happen. In the '71 war, India suffered around 3000 casualties, right? So were IG and SM playing politics with the lives of their jawans? And led them to their glorious deaths?
Stop being so emotional about war casualties.
Does that mean in the current context that the officers mentioned above by Ray would have had the chance to collude with the politicos or the intel agencies like RAW to let kargil happen? Its highly unlikely, to get ALL of them involved in such a consipiracy.
I am yet to see an Indian general (whether honest, corrupt, whatever) who would wantonly throw away 500+ lives for the 'greater good of the country'
AFAICT, RAW definitely knew what was happening. And it did not inform or it did inform somebody and nothing was done. One will never know the truth. RAW & LTTE anyone?
Is it possible that we chuck everything down the drain? How can a military man ever show his face, lets say, if he has run from battle or sold his country? Can one sell his soul who has been trained to give his life and soul for the country? The regimental ethos can never allow. Read Amarinder's LEST WE FORGET and even he ridiculed a General who rose to be a Lt Gen having fled 1962 Thagla Ridge! I beleive this man was not allowed to enter the unit he was commissioned in! Can anyone live down this ignominy? The said General will roll in his grave with utter shame and humiliation when he enters it. Imagine his mental torture of not being able to look anyone in the face throughout his service and retirement! If this is the 2 star an above you are talking about, then, sir, they are the living dead and its not worth being so - at least for the uniformed class.
Emotions, emotions, emotions ...
Lessons of Kargil:
1) We learnt what a new India-TSP "equilibrium" would be post-Shakti-II. (isn't that what the current peace process trying to cement?)
2) To change that military and geopolitic equilibrium, one side needs to significantly enhance it's fighting power. (aren't we seeing exactly that?)
2) We learnt how far USA would go to cover up TSP against India.
3) USA's ability (or inability) to do get involved militarily or otherwise in the course of an India-TSP conflict was confirmed.
4) USA's clout/lobby (or lack thereof) over the Indian politicians is also clear.