Intelligence & National Security Discussion

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nishug
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by nishug »

why thread about mumbai attacks is locked ? :shock:
sunny_s
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sunny_s »

Saw Saheed Sandeep's mom cryin really heartbreaking footage.cud nt hold back my tears.may GOD give his family strength..may his n the souls of all our brave hearts rest in peace
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Rahul M »

nishug wrote:why thread about mumbai attacks is locked ? :shock:
please check the strat forum. If you can read you'll find the many threads that are active right now. spoon feeding is not encouraged here.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

Link
Pointed intelligence warnings preceded attacks

Praveen Swami

Weaknesses in police infrastructure facilitated the terror strike, government sources say

— Photo: PTI/TIMES NOW

The body of Amarsinh Solanki, captain of the fishing boat ‘Kuber.’

MUMBAI: India’s intelligence services had delivered at least three precise warnings that a major terrorist attack on Mumbai was imminent, highly-placed government sources have told The Hindu.

However, weaknesses in police manpower and training allowed the attacks to proceed, the sources said.

On November 18, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) intercepted a satellite phone conversation, in which a so-far unidentified caller notified his handlers that he was heading for Mumbai along with a certain cargo.

RAW analysts, however, rapidly determined that the apparently innocuous call was made to a Lahore phone number known to be used by the Lashkar-e-Taiba’s main military commander for operations targeting India, who is known only by the code-names ‘Muzammil’ and ‘Abu Hurrera.’

Mumbai Police investigators have determined that the call was made from a satellite phone that was eventually found abandoned on the Porbandar-based fishing boat Kuber, hijacked by the terrorists mid-ocean, most likely on November 19. The satellite phone also contains records of several other calls to Lashkar handlers in Pakistan.

Government sources said the RAW warning sparked a full-scale hunt for the merchant ship on which the terrorists had sailed from Karachi. The hunt was led by the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard. India’s coastal defence forces used global positioning system coordinates from the intercepted call to locate the general area in which the ship was located.

Based on the testimony of arrested Lashkar terrorist Ajmal Amir Kamal, investigators believe the terrorists hijacked the Kuber in order to avoid detection after they saw Indian patrols closing in on the area. Kamal, the sources said, has told investigators that some of the terrorists tied red ceremonial threads on their wrists to appear like Indian fishermen.

Earlier, in late September, Intelligence Bureau informants had issued alerts warning that a Lashkar unit was preparing to target the Taj Mahal Hotel. According to the sources, the warning, that was built on the testimony of arrested Mumbai-based terrorist Fahim Ansari, who told investigators in March that he had carried out reconnaissance operations at the Bombay Stock Exchange, the Gateway of India area and the Oberoi Hotels in preparation for an attack.

RAW, too, issued warnings that the Lashkar was contemplating hitting one or more hotels in Mumbai’s northern suburbs, including the Leela Kempinski.

Police sources said these intelligence warnings had led them to deploy personnel near major hotels in Mumbai, and hold meetings with hotel security heads. Parking instructions were introduced at the Oberoi Hotel, and circulars were issued to local businesses asking them to observe special security precautions. However, the restrictions were lifted a week before the attacks, after businesses and residents complained of inconvenience.{Maybe, the oberoi does deserve it if they feel that security restrictions trample their liberties?? :x }

“We also removed the additional security,” a police source said, “because our manpower was stretched to the limit and the personnel we had did not, in any case, have the specially-trained personnel needed to avert a suicide-squad attack.”
New disclosures

Meanwhile, Mumbai Police sources said, the continuing interrogation of arrested Lashkar terrorist Ajmal Amir Kamal had allowed them to put together a coherent account of the mechanics of the assault.

Kamal has claimed that the Lashkar assault team, which trained in boat-handling tactics at the Mangla Dam reservoir on the border between Pakistan’s Punjab province and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was trained to locate their targets on a high-resolution satellite map. If Kamal’s account proves to be correct, it would suggest there was no local support team in place to guide the attack — a decision that may have been made in order to ensure secrecy. A Lashkar team that landed near Mumbai last year was betrayed to Indian intelligence by its supporters in India.

The police sources said media claims that elements of the Lashkar team had checked into the Taj Mahal Hotel prior to the attack appeared unfounded, as did assertions that two of the terrorists were British nationals.

According to Kamal, the men travelled to a launching position on the Sindh coast, near Karachi, in groups of two. Each of the operatives had strict instructions to avoid personal discussions, and knew each other only by Arabic code-names.

Two suspects initially held on suspicion of guiding the fidayeen were found to be not involved and were released, the police sources said.
Seems to be more a implementation failure than a intel failure...
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kit »

cross posting ..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

Attacks Imperil Delicate U.S. Role Between Rivals

India should not go for a conventional war with Pakistan Why not a full scale proxy war and targeted assassinations inside Pakistan.Putting India's home in order is one of the better things to do.At the same time escalate intelligence activities inside Pakistan... put pressure on them from inside.. tit for tat ... costs less and more effective.

At the same time revamp both the military capabilities including a second strike nuke capability against china .. who could be the dark horse in the mumbai terrorist acts given its deep connections inside Pakistan.

China is already in a proxy war with India .. i said it 2 weeks back , now is the time to repeat it

Response of Indian Govt can be something like
1.Revamp all the intelligence agancies into one external and one internal agency with input from spy sats and ELINT directly.One single federal directorate for all internal and counter intelligence activities with superseding and arching powers over state governments in a crisis situation.All spg, nsg etc should be under this organisation.

2.Enhance the nuclear second strike capability pronto with complete EW and surveillance over the entire Indian airspace.Beef up the coast guard to cover the Indian coast line 24*7

3.A national consensus to be taken up and enacted in case an attack happens again , it will !

4.Control the media .. have a media center with the terrorist task force specifically for the media .. all outputs to the nations channels to be screened and put through.

5.Revamp the police organisations in all states including arms and armour to combat the latest known terrorist weapons.

6.Lots of moles and sympathisers seem to be inside India.. identify them among the politicians, businessmen,police,military and journalists and keep track of them.

7.If India doesnt learn and act the next one could as well be a nuke in the heart of delhi !
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Mark Schwartzbard »

kit wrote:cross posting ..

China is already in a proxy war with India .. i said it 2 weeks back , now is the time to repeat it

3.A national consensus to be taken up and enacted in case an attack happens again , it will !

!
The most sensible act would be to go after the terrorists ( including ISI and politicians ) and those funding such missions inside any part of the world. ( Similar to the Isreali actions ).

The message would be there is no hinding place on this planet earth if there is going to be any trouble in India.

The only problem with this approach is that Indian politicians will also be the target of other countries and terrorist. This is what is driving the Indian political system shy of carrying a tough stance/policy. Protecting their own A$$, while common Indian folks die each day on the streets.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Avinash R »

Iam wrote:The only problem with this approach is that Indian politicians will also be the target of other countries and terrorist.
they already are targets. the indian parliament was attacked to kill all politicians. manmohan,sonia,rahul,advani have been repeatedly warned by intel agecies regarding the threat to them from terrorist groups. the upgradation of weapons of spg protecting manmohan shows that threat to his life from terrorists is really high and measures have been taken to increase his security detail.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Philip »

Well said Kit.We are indeed at war with both Pak and China through their proxies.Some of us have been saying it for the last few years now.If we are to respond militarily,then there are two options.Overt,covert or even a combination of both.The covert ops could be the more lethal,eliminating the masterminds who planned/are planning acts of war against India.Overt ops could be shof of the flag just outside Pak's teritorial waters/naval blockade if neccessary-just before we prepare for open conflict ,that too after careful planning and preparation.This will definitely NOT happen with this GOI,as it under its pathetic peacenik PM,hans't the balls for even a slap on the face! It will have to come after the forthcoming elections,wheer one hopes and praye that this regime is discarded into history's dustbin.

China is jubilant,as this attack will slow down our economic growth.Always ask the question,"who benefits most?".In this attack,both Pak and China.Pak used its proxies and Pak is China's proxy.
With every attack against India,India should harden its attitude towards China too,as China is supplying it with massive military aid,nuclear weapons and missiles.We must also put maximum pressure upon the US to stop ALL military and economic aid to Pak,if not stopped,then Indo-US relations will plunge and an end to military cooperation with it will take place.Pres.Medvedev of Russia is about to visit India.A perfect time for us to discuss and coordinate all matters military with Russai.Russia is our oldest and most loyal friend.Let's take the relationship a step further with increased defence/security understanding and collaboration.A mssive diplomatic offensive is also needed to expose Pak's perfidy.We must win the propaganda war,equally needed as much as winning the war on the battlefield.Russia just saw the huge importance of this in the Georgain War.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kit »

let whoever may care know that the sorry a**** of the politicians also are in line.SPGs or not well armed and trained terrorists carry an element of surprise and who knows what weapons or measures they wont use use next time around.The game rules have changed.If they realize this now the better it is.India's destiny is to become one of the pivotal centers of power in the 21 st century politician or no politician .. nothing is going to change that.We need a consensus in BR at least as to the response that is best.The new thread hopefully might do that.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kmc_chacko »

Firstly put economic blocked by every means we know.

Lend funds from Reserves to IMF for sanctioning loan to Pakis with a condition of cutting off military budget to atleast to the 30% of existing budget. If they not force them to pay high rate of interest and give short term loan (5-10 years) by that we can force the to cut off any one thing i.e., either their economy, development or defense.

Force them to open their markets by selling many of the important Govt. run institutions. Make funds available for Indian companies to buy them and tell them to follow the orders of GOI. By that way destroy Pakistan economy.

Let RAW to deal the terrorist outside the border of India (License to Kill)

Send Su-30MKI to destroy camps, let army to cross the border and destroy Camps and take TV reporters for live telicast of that for the proof.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Rahul M »

Lend funds from Reserves to IMF for sanctioning loan to Pakis with a condition of cutting off military budget to atleast to the 30% of existing budget. If they not force them to pay high rate of interest and give short term loan (5-10 years) by that we can force the to cut off any one thing i.e., either their economy, development or defense.

Force them to open their markets by selling many of the important Govt. run institutions. Make funds available for Indian companies to buy them and tell them to follow the orders of GOI. By that way destroy Pakistan economy.
wrong way to go IMO.

force them to overspend on military and thus f*** up their economy. just press the levers to stop US from bankrolling pak defence purchases.

the target should be the destruction of the paki state, not just the military. if the state survives we will forever witness Nov26 like incidents.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kumar_k »

kmc_chacko wrote:Firstly put economic blocked by every means we know.

Lend funds from Reserves to IMF for sanctioning loan to Pakis with a condition of cutting off military budget to atleast to the 30% of existing budget. If they not force them to pay high rate of interest and give short term loan (5-10 years) by that we can force the to cut off any one thing i.e., either their economy, development or defense.

Force them to open their markets by selling many of the important Govt. run institutions. Make funds available for Indian companies to buy them and tell them to follow the orders of GOI. By that way destroy Pakistan economy.

Let RAW to deal the terrorist outside the border of India (License to Kill)

Send Su-30MKI to destroy camps, let army to cross the border and destroy Camps and take TV reporters for live telicast of that for the proof.
Ahemm....

Does it not sound easier, than it is in Reality?

Now, if we do attack them using our SU-30's, are they to expected to retaliate.(even through nukes)??

I think we should force them to increase their military expenditure by increasing our Border deployment, and making them feel so much insecure that they have to increase their military expenditure by leaps and bounds, in turn f***king their economy.

IMF is a long dream...
as is the market intervention thing u r talking about..

U really expect our Government to go that far??
when these morons can't even pass strict laws??
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kit »

The united states will and should continue its arms sales to Pakistan.Just look at the bigger picture, without that China is going to fill that void and essentially making pak a client state of China.It should never happen, the US knows that ..and Indian policy makers hopefully too.But making sure with Washington that what all weapons go through must be with a tacit 'understanding' with India.I think this mechanism is already in place.Washington is well aware of one particular scenario that might be played out if tension cuts loose.Rand has said about that particular outcome.We have to accept that American arms supplies would have to continue albeit in a 'different' way both for their own as well as India's purposes.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kumar_k »

kit wrote:The united states will and should continue its arms sales to Pakistan.Just look at the bigger picture, without that China is going to fill that void and essentially making pak a client state of China.It should never happen, the US knows that ..and Indian policy makers hopefully too.But making sure with Washington that what all weapons go through must be with a tacit 'understanding' with India.I think this mechanism is already in place.Washington is well aware of one particular scenario that might be played out if tension cuts loose.Rand has said about that particular outcome.We have to accept that American arms supplies would have to continue albeit in a 'different' way both for their own as well as India's purposes.
That is surely an area of concern.
I never thought of it .
U sound like a wise person.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Dmurphy »

kumar_k wrote:U sound like a wise person.
You must be on cloud 9, Kit!
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Mark Schwartzbard »

Philip wrote: China is jubilant,as this attack will slow down our economic growth.Always ask the question,"who benefits most?".In this attack,both Pak and China.Pak used its proxies and Pak is China's proxy.
With every attack against India.
Well Said Philip, I do agree with you on this point. That's the conclusion which is arriving from most intelligence quarters. (cannot name them for official reasons ). Coming from an outsider perspective this whole fiasco is the master mind of 2, probably 3 countries, with hands in pocket with a few local sympathesiers.

I wouldn't name to start a war on this forum, but conclusive evidence may not be brought forth in the public forum or media. As this will have repurcussion for not only India and it's immediate neighbourhood. The only way to deal with this menace ( dragon (wolf in sheeps clothing ) and the flycatcher ( jehadis ) is to arm the country and get a grip on your borders. First get the smaller states in order, and then the big will follow. If there are any intelligence or military analyst on this forum, like I said, arm yourself, and then go in for a covert operations inside and outside the borders.

The pakistanis are playing the dog (US) and the bone (India) here, trying to draw attention of the world away from it. One of the first articles from Times Of India that makes some sense.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_India_face_Pak_blackmail_on_terror/articleshow/3777307.cms
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kit »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_I ... 777307.cms

US, India face Pak blackmail on terror

It is blackmail only if let be.I would think of this to be an opportunity.The US must intervene militarily and go for full scale operations inside Pakistan.The obama administration is being tested.India can take care of the increased military presence in its borders.
There is no other option here at this juncture.Otherwise the whole situation would repeat like a full cycle it did before.the new administration risks being an 'also ran ' in terms of its promises and expectation.
India does not need to worry about it either way, this does not aggravate the situation but only makes it crystal clear.If Pakistan had no hand in the mumbai carnage for real they wouldn't go for real mobilisation would they ? They would rather put proof of their innocence.I am also waiting for the US response.lets see.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Kati »

http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/27/india- ... newsletter

…a brief quick editorial in Forbes on the limping Indian system that’s completely inept to understand the scale of the problem of terrorism – forget about finding a solution
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by NRao »

China is jubilant,as this attack will slow down our economic growth

?????????????? Why? Why would it slow down the economic growth? Had they even destroyed the Taj - as seems the original plan - it would not have impacted the economic growth.

In fact, I would suspect that there would be a lot more investments in India. (India still needs far better leaders to do well.) The trauma should wash over very soon.

On China, I expect China to collapse - due to socio-political pressure - in about 15 years.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by NRao »

kit wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_I ... 777307.cms

US, India face Pak blackmail on terror
This guy forgot to read BR.

The US has been using drones even when the US and Pakis were talking - when US Adm were in Islamabad. The question is how deep would Pakistan like the US drones to fly into the Land of the Impure.

By stating that Pakis will disengage 100K troops from A'stan border, the Pakis have played their card prematurely. What happens if India does not mobilise? India will not - no use wasting funds when troops will only sit on the border.

Pakis have also increased temp within the Land of Impure by asking for proof of GoP involvement. Nobody has said that GoP was involved. Just exposes their stupidity to the world - as though it needed to be(?)

On ISI "clarification" - both sides must have taped and the US must have listened without invitation. Any of them can very easily unclarify the situation.

Pakis have spent all their political capital. Here on out all they can do is to retreat.

US talk shows are already talking of "American deaths" in Mumbai. When Americans die abroad there is an automatic process that kicks in. Pakis I am sure are aware of it. Does not matter who the President is and if s/he is willing to talk without preconditions. US Law kicks in.

This I feel is another Kargil. PM not informed before bed time .................. was informed before drink ................. was not ..........

On the flip side India also needs to grow up. I seriously feel that MMS has run his invite. JMT. He is not a "war" PM, or should I say a crisis PM. Mumbai can and should become a financial capital of Asia. The city is also dilapidated and needs plenty of planed rebuilds.............need to work on that.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by svinayak »

kit wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_I ... 777307.cms

US, India face Pak blackmail on terror

1 Dec 2008, 0054 hrs IST, Chidanand Rajghatta, TNN
WASHINGTON: The United States and India face tactics bordering on blackmail from a militarized Pakistan - where civilian control is still very
dodgy - as they coordinate efforts to eliminate terrorism in the region, according to analysts and officials on both sides.

In what is turning out to be an elaborate chess game in the region, Islamabad on Saturday made its "Afghan move" to counter the US-India pincer, telling Washington that it will have to withdraw some 100,000 Pakistani troops posted on its western borders to fight the al-Qaida-Taliban and move them east to the Indian front if New Delhi makes any aggressive moves.

In Washington, Pakistan's ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani said there is no movement of Pakistani troops right now, but if India makes any aggressive moves, "Pakistan will have no choice but to take appropriate measures."

Stripped of complexities, Pakistan is conveying the following message to the US: If you don't get India to back down, Pakistan will stop cooperating with US in the war against terror. Consequently, this also means Pakistan will use US dependence on its cooperation to wage a low-grade, asymmetric, terrorism-backed war against India.

Pakistan's withdrawal of troops from the Afghan front would obviously undermine the US/Nato battle in Afghanistan and allow breathing space for Taliban and al-Qaida. It would also ratchet up confrontation with India, which is at low ebb right now because Islamabad has been forced to engage on its western front and this minimizes Pakistan-backed infiltration into Kashmir, allowing India to tackle the insurgency in the state.

In fact, some experts surmise that the terror strike on Mumbai may have been aimed at precisely this - taking the pressure off Pakistan on its Afghan front, where it is getting a battering from US predators and causing a civilian uprising on its border, and allowing Islamabad to return to its traditional hostile posture against India on its eastern front.

The US-India-Pakistan tangle was the subject of intense debate among analysts on Sunday talk shows, with some analysts like former CIA Deputy Director John McLaughlin expressing apprehension that al-Qaida could be achieving its objective of getting some relief through such proxy attacks.

Vexed US officials have been in constant communication with their Indian counterparts to deal with the complex situation arising from what both sides privately agree has become a chaotic country dominated by rogue elements from its military and intelligence services.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been speaking with India's External Affairs Minister regularly to get a sense of India's mood and moves, worried that any overtly aggressive response by New Delhi will undermine US effort in Afghanistan.

President Bush and President-elect Barack Obama have also spoken to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to show US support, but also to moderate Indian response. Both Washington and New Delhi are starting to realise that the Pakistani military still calls the shots in Islamabad behind the civilian façade, officials here concede privately.

The weakness of Pakistan's civilian leadership was fully exposed on Saturday when the country’s army chief once again overruled a civilian government decision - this time to send the Director General of its spy agency ISI to India to coordinate the investigation into the latest terror attack on Mumbai.

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari explained it away saying there was a miscommunication and Islamabad only meant to send a ''Director'' and not Director-General, at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s request. But no one was fooled by the ''clarification'' -- the reversal of the earlier decision came after a midnight meeting Pakistan’s Army Chief Pervez Kiyani, a former ISI chief himself, had with Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani.

Pakistan’s threat about troop withdrawals from the Afghan front also followed the Zardari-Kiyani-Gilani meeting, leaving little doubt about the real power center in Islamabad despite the recent return to democratic rule.

The situation is made even more complex by the transition process in the US where President Bush is winding down from the White House and President-elect Obama is readying to take charge. Both sides have made the Pakistan problem a top priority as they coordinate response, tactics, and communication relating to developments in the region.

The latest attacks on Mumbai also threatens to torpedo Obama's stated objective of promoting good ties between New Delhi and Islamabad, so that Pakistan can focus its energy on the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan that are controlled by Islamic extremists.

But hardliners in Pakistan's military and strategic circles, who resent what they see as the country's civilian government doing Washington's bidding and fighting what they argue is a US war, are against this. The terror strike on Mumbai evidently has several objectives - one of them being to cause a rift between Washington and New Delhi and damage US-India ties.

While Pakistan's fledgling civilian government has made all the right moves and noises about cooperation with India, officials here reckon it is being continuously undermined by the hard-line military whose importance, and lavish funding, depends on keeping up a hostile posture against India.

Even in the political sphere, Pakistan's continued existence as a single entity is premised on enmity with India, the glue which keeps the country together. Some Pakistanis have suggested in recent months that take away animosity against India, then Pakistan's founding itself becomes questionable.

Already, many Pakistanis are starting to question the relevance of a country where more people are killed in intra-religious warfare between Shias and Sunnis than in Hindu-Muslim communal riots in India. Two of Pakistan's four territories are wracked by insurgencies, and the intelligence community's reading is that resurrecting the hostile posture against India is one way the hard-line elements in Pakistan hope to contain this domestic conflagration.

While Pakistan is playing its one desperate Afghan card, both India and US can separately bring Pakistan to its knees in no time. The US and its allies are dependent on Pakistan for supplies to its troops in Afghanistan, but they can also plug the economic plug on the country and cause it to collapse in no time. India controls Pakistan's lifeline and jugular with river waters that originate in India and flow into Pakistan.

But punishing Pakistan with this levers would also throw the country into absolute chaos and bring extremists elements to the fore leading to a Somalia kind of situation -- with nuclear weapons in the mix. This is the fear that Pakistan is exploiting to stay afloat and stave off sanctions from the west and punishment from India.

The solution, analysts say, is to get Pakistan's civilian leadership to exert control over its hard-line military and intelligence which functions on its own existential agenda.

This is easier said than done. America's foremost strategic guru Henry Kissinger told Fareed Zakaria's GPS program on CNN, which devoted an entire hour to the crisis, that Pakistan's civilian government had made good statements vis-à-vis ties with India,"but its capacity to implement them is questionable."
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by K Mehta »

I have a feeling there was intelligence report on this but the authorities secured the wrong "Taj". I have found reports on google that after the sept 15 blasts they beefed up security of Tajmahal in Agra, i dont find many reports before that. This was about 2 months back. before that you dont find many reports on security of Tajmahal. I dont think any islamist would attack Tajmahal, because its a makbara and has a masjid too.
Wonder they misinterpreted the report or I am just being paranoid.
JMTs etc.
P.S. google to check it out.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kmc_chacko »

If above not work then we should ask US to sell equipments of higher maintenance cost & to support them by sending troops to Afghanistan and ask them to increase their surveillance & attacks on FATA & Afghanistan border region for tracking and defeat Al-queda & Bin Laden.

Use Russian relationship to put pressure on China and try to solve the border problem quickly and if India can send back Tibetans to china then send them back because it is another reason for enmity with China and indicate that India is friend & well-wisher of China & not enemy.

Because we are not interested in fearful world with China supporting against India in Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar & Sri Lanka. As the most populous nations and fast growing economy we need each other. If US can build relation with Russia & China for sake their economy then why not India.

through this we can make Pakistan helpless as US & China can have better relation.

But I have one request to all the Indians please donot vote to these ediots both BJP & Congress and wasting their time in accusing each other than looking out for a solution.

I wished if A.P.J.Kalam would had taken over the leadership under the help of Military (A military Coup which regularly happens in Pakistan). But our bad luck.

kmc_chacko,
advocacy of a military coup will not be tolerated on BRF.
people have been banned on this.
Rahul.

IT NEVER HAPPENS IN INDIA
Last edited by Rahul M on 01 Dec 2008 21:52, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added comment.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by satya »

Confirms what many believe that Mumbai attack wasn't an intelligence failure but implementation failure on part of local security agencies at ground zero . Nightwatch's reports:
India: Ripple effects
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by satya »

satya wrote:Confirms what many believe that Mumbai attack wasn't an intelligence failure but implementation failure on part of local security agencies at ground zero . Nightwatch's reports:
India: Ripple effects
Indian Home Affairs Minister Shivraj Patil offered his resignation to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today, Agence France-Presse reported, according to a source in the Home Ministry. Patil, who said he felt a "moral responsibility" for the attacks in Mumbai, had been heavily criticized by local media as having failed to ensure security.

National Security Adviser M. K. Narayanan also resigned and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has accepted, the Times of India reported, citing a government official. Additional senior members, including the heads of the Coast Guard, the Intelligence Bureau, and the Home Secretary, are "likely to be shown the door," said an aide to the Prime Minister.

This is a study in accountability in a parliamentary democracy. The security team failed and has the decency to admit it. All the reports indicate the intelligence services provided adequate and reasonable intelligence warning. Some modest security measures were taken but not sustained, according to the owners of the Taj Mahal Hotel. T

These are the perennial problems of warning: it is not taken seriously if an attack is no immediate; measures are not sustained until the threat abates; and/or the threatened enterprises decline to pay the price of safety. The Mumbai attacks do not seem to have been intelligence warning failures, but failures of policy and security execution.

News services have reported a variety of details about the Mumbai attack. Most accounts indicate ten men executed the attack, possibly 12 with two still at large. As with most successful attacks, the attackers planned, trained and rehearsed for months up to a year, depending on the source. At least two Kashmiri militant camps housed the training, according to the detainee. Pakistan’s ISI’s involvement was mentioned specifically by the one terrorist under interrogation, according to one news service.

The training included commando tactics, including over the beach landings. This raises a suspicion of formal military training, such as could be provided by Pakistan’s Special Services Group, because the Kashmiri militant groups have not displayed special commando skills of any kind in their operations.

One feedback source noted that some Pakistani strategists believe India must be destabilized anytime Pakistan is internally unstable. That seems to be the case historically and now. India has yet to be destabilized by external militant attacks. It copes daily with hundreds of sources of ethnic or cult instability from within its own population.

Politically, these attacks are a failure in that they have set back Muslim causes in India and Kashmir. The backlash against Indian Muslims threatens to be enormous. There will be bloodshed in coming months because the Hindus will be on a hair trigger to see even unintended slights as provocations by Muslims.

They are also a failure because they have made Pakistan more unstable and riveted world attention on the extent and nature of Pakistani official involvement, if any. Failure and backlash against the innocent seem to be the consistent outcomes of kinetic attacks.
babbupandey
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by babbupandey »

kmc_chacko wrote:
I wished if A.P.J.Kalam would had taken over the leadership under the help of Military (A military Coup which regularly happens in Pakistan). But our bad luck.

IT NEVER HAPPENS IN INDIA

If this started happening in India, then what would be the difference between us and our neighbour? This is a point which you should be proud of rather than complain about it.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Vipul »

This is too shocking. :shock:

Even as the country battles an unprecedented wave of terror, the Research & Analysis Wing, the country’s prime counter-intelligence agency, has sunk to a new low in terms of corruption, nepotism, and misuse of its vast secret funds. Officials in the agency, far from helping the country fight its enemies outside, are busy fighting among themselves, further eroding its competence.

At the centre of the rot is R&AW chief Ashok Chaturvedi, who is seen by many agency insiders as building his own coterie at the cost of its overall objectives. There is a subterranean battle for supremacy going on between officers of R&AW and those deputed to the agency from the Indian Police Service (IPS).

According to a DNA investigation, within days of taking over as R&AW chief, Chaturvedi ordered the agency to hire his own private flat in Noida, on Delhi’s outskirts, as a safe house. Over the years, R&AW has used an internal order to hire its own employees’ houses for official use, after carrying out expensive renovations. A former R&AW chief’s house in South Delhi and a Jammu house belonging to an employee who is part of Chaturvedi’s inner circle are now R&AW safe houses using this logic. Another bungalow belonging to Chaturvedi, again in Noida, is presently under renovation with the agency’s assistance. It is protected by R&AW personnel.

As R&AW chief, Chaturvedi has almost autonomous control of over the agency’s annual budget of over Rs1,000 crore.

Sources spoken to by DNA said that R&AW may also have provided financial assistance to Chaturvedi’s son based in Europe from discretionary funds meant for intelligence operations, but no documentary evidence on this was available. However, other sources confirmed this allegation.

The decay at the agency is best symbolised by how a lower-level functionary, JC Kapoor, Chaturvedi’s personal secretary, has managed to get his daughters into the agency without a whimper of protest. All of Kapoor’s four daughters are employed with R&AW, and two of them — Simple and Dimple — are reportedly waiting for foreign postings after brief spells in Punjab to fulfill the “field” posting requirement. R&AW officials have to do field work before they get posted abroad.

The eldest daughter, Soni Shukla, is in Delhi doing a foreign language course, possibly in expectations of another foreign posting. The youngest of the siblings joined the Aviation Research Centre in Delhi some time ago.

Chaturvedi’s detractors also talk of the R&AW chief’s house being staffed by over two dozen agency personnel. Among them: staff to look after his dogs, two cooks, almost half a dozen telephone operators and four gardeners.

Perhaps symptomatic of Chaturvedi’s priorities, on September 27 he was watching a movie when the Delhi blasts happened.

There are no reports that the movie buff rushed to action on hearing about the attacks.
Senior officials also complain that they no longer have direct access to him, and instead have to deal with his inner circle. The intra-agency feuding has been worsened by an open dogfight between IPS officers, who have come on deputation to R&AW, and officers of the directly-recruited Research & Analysis Service (RAS). It is an open secret that RAS has sometimes been used to recruit the relatives of powerful bureaucrats without any transparency. Many who got into RAS in a similar fashion are now in senior positions, further contributing to the open fight.

The fierce infighting between the IPS and RAS lobbies has also resulted in some shocking instances of misuse of authority. Two different sources confirmed to DNA that an RAS officer, who was forced to quit the agency after Chaturvedi took over, had in the past been caught illegally tapping the telephones of senior IPS officers, including the then chief of the agency.

During DNA’s course of investigations, each lobby was hurling the worst allegations against the other. And it was clear that lack of cohesion at the highest levels of R&AW is an issue of national urgency that needs addressing.
sum
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by sum »

JC Kapoor, Chaturvedi’s personal secretary, has managed to get his daughters into the agency without a whimper of protest. All of Kapoor’s four daughters are employed with R&AW, and two of them — Simple and Dimple — are reportedly waiting for foreign postings after brief spells in Punjab to fulfill the “field” posting requirement. R&AW officials have to do field work before they get posted abroad.

The eldest daughter, Soni Shukla, is in Delhi doing a foreign language course, possibly in expectations of another foreign posting. The youngest of the siblings joined the Aviation Research Centre in Delhi some time ago.
:shock: :shock:
Unbelievable disclosure of agency personnel names.
The "mole" who leaked all this sure seems to have some vendetta going by the complete family history of JC Kapoor being provided.

A shocker of a article.
Katare
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Katare »

All this cheap media war is being played in open shows a perceived weakness in part of central govt. We need a different culture at RAW, what we are seeing is the typical bureaucratic attitude and govt department culture.
amanpuneet
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by amanpuneet »

well i think the article raises to many questions it should be fully investigated we already have poor reputation of our intelligence and article like this made them look more weak and full of corruption they have been going downhill since punjab insurgency i think.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by babbupandey »

Chaturvedi is doing a major botch-up of R&AW. I read in article somewhere that he has this habit chewing tobacco. At a senior level meeting, when asked about something he was completely incoherent because his mouth was filled with tobacco. He was specifically asked to clean his mouth and then after he came back and started again on the topic, the minister said that he made more sense with tobacco in his mouth.
PM Manmohan Singh too was not happy with him and it is rumoured that he had given a nod to silently remove him from the current post but Chaturvedi had approached Madam Gandhi by that time and pleaded on health grounds to let him remain in service till his retirement in 2009.
I think with current situation he should not be allowed to gracefully exit from the office. He should be sacked right away even if he has only a month left in his retirement - let this be used to set an example for what internal security means to the government.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by kmc_chacko »

sorry for the post.

this attack hurt me so badly that . . . . i can't say. . :cry:
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by K Mehta »

soutikghosh
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by soutikghosh »

Vipul wrote:This is too shocking. :shock:

Even as the country battles an unprecedented wave of terror, the Research & Analysis Wing, the country’s prime counter-intelligence agency, has sunk to a new low in terms of corruption, nepotism, and misuse of its vast secret funds. Officials in the agency, far from helping the country fight its enemies outside, are busy fighting among themselves, further eroding its competence.

At the centre of the rot is R&AW chief Ashok Chaturvedi, who is seen by many agency insiders as building his own coterie at the cost of its overall objectives. There is a subterranean battle for supremacy going on between officers of R&AW and those deputed to the agency from the Indian Police Service (IPS).

According to a DNA investigation, within days of taking over as R&AW chief, Chaturvedi ordered the agency to hire his own private flat in Noida, on Delhi’s outskirts, as a safe house. Over the years, R&AW has used an internal order to hire its own employees’ houses for official use, after carrying out expensive renovations. A former R&AW chief’s house in South Delhi and a Jammu house belonging to an employee who is part of Chaturvedi’s inner circle are now R&AW safe houses using this logic. Another bungalow belonging to Chaturvedi, again in Noida, is presently under renovation with the agency’s assistance. It is protected by R&AW personnel.

As R&AW chief, Chaturvedi has almost autonomous control of over the agency’s annual budget of over Rs1,000 crore.

Sources spoken to by DNA said that R&AW may also have provided financial assistance to Chaturvedi’s son based in Europe from discretionary funds meant for intelligence operations, but no documentary evidence on this was available. However, other sources confirmed this allegation.

The decay at the agency is best symbolised by how a lower-level functionary, JC Kapoor, Chaturvedi’s personal secretary, has managed to get his daughters into the agency without a whimper of protest. All of Kapoor’s four daughters are employed with R&AW, and two of them — Simple and Dimple — are reportedly waiting for foreign postings after brief spells in Punjab to fulfill the “field” posting requirement. R&AW officials have to do field work before they get posted abroad.

The eldest daughter, Soni Shukla, is in Delhi doing a foreign language course, possibly in expectations of another foreign posting. The youngest of the siblings joined the Aviation Research Centre in Delhi some time ago.

Chaturvedi’s detractors also talk of the R&AW chief’s house being staffed by over two dozen agency personnel. Among them: staff to look after his dogs, two cooks, almost half a dozen telephone operators and four gardeners.

Perhaps symptomatic of Chaturvedi’s priorities, on September 27 he was watching a movie when the Delhi blasts happened.

There are no reports that the movie buff rushed to action on hearing about the attacks.
Senior officials also complain that they no longer have direct access to him, and instead have to deal with his inner circle. The intra-agency feuding has been worsened by an open dogfight between IPS officers, who have come on deputation to R&AW, and officers of the directly-recruited Research & Analysis Service (RAS). It is an open secret that RAS has sometimes been used to recruit the relatives of powerful bureaucrats without any transparency. Many who got into RAS in a similar fashion are now in senior positions, further contributing to the open fight.

The fierce infighting between the IPS and RAS lobbies has also resulted in some shocking instances of misuse of authority. Two different sources confirmed to DNA that an RAS officer, who was forced to quit the agency after Chaturvedi took over, had in the past been caught illegally tapping the telephones of senior IPS officers, including the then chief of the agency.

During DNA’s course of investigations, each lobby was hurling the worst allegations against the other. And it was clear that lack of cohesion at the highest levels of R&AW is an issue of national urgency that needs addressing.
Total disgrace to his important position. Should be made to retire with half the post retirement benefits.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by shyamd »

I think NSA and PM/PMO know exactly what was going on in RAW. It is something else that has allowed Chaturvedi to keep his job. And no not the fact that the Cabinet Minister is his cousin or whatever. I think it is due to the CD which was delivered to the office, with all the hawala transactions of the businessmen and politicians etc. CD was delivered by the CIA. I think the article still exists on this thread.
SaiK
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by SaiK »

x-posting from strat..
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/nov/27r ... s-safe.htm
How safe are our nuclear establishments?

The war of civilisation between the Muslims and the infidels has begun in Indian

territory.



So said the first statement issued in the name of the so-called Indian Mujahideen [Images] in November 2007, after the three orchestrated explosions in three towns of Uttar Pradesh [Images] outside local courts.



We saw the latest round of this war in Mumbai on the night of November 26, 2008, as an unestimated number of terrorists -- divided into small groups and wielding hand-held weapons and improvised explosive devices -- literally took control

of Mumbai and targeted with frightening precision famous hospitals preferred by the rich of the country and foreign tourists, railway stations, a hospital and many other places scattered across this business capital of India.



It is not just 9/11. It is not just Madrid, M arch 2004. It is not just London [Images] 2006.



It is -- I am using the present tense because the situation is still not under control at 5-30 am despite the Army's assistance being sought -- an act of terrorism the like of which the world has not seen before. Mind boggles as one tries to think and figure out how the terrorists could have planned and carried out terrorist strikes of such magnitude, territorial spread and ferocity without our intelligence and police having been able to get any scent of it. Like what the Vietcong did during the Tet offensive



The iceberg of jihadi terrorism to which I have been drawing attention since November 2007, in article after article, in interview after interview, in discussion after discussion has struck not only Mumbai, but the Indian State.



The iceberg moved from UP to Jaipur [Images]. From Jaipur to Bangalore. From Bangalore to Ahmedabad [Images] and Surat [Images]. From there to Delhi [Images]. From Delhi to Assam. From Assam to Mumbai now -- despite the claims made by the Mumbai police some weeks ago of having discovered and crushed a plot of the IM to carry out strikes in Mumbai.



The government of Manmohan Singh [Images] reacted to the repeated warning signals of the moving iceberg since November 2007, in the same way as the Bush Administration reacted to reports about the plans of the Al Qaeda [Images] for aviation terrorism in

the US; in the same way Megawati Sukarnoputri reacted to reports of the activities of the Jemmah Islamiyah; and in the same way Khalida Zia reacted to reports of the plans of the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen .



Bovine. It just did no react. It was in a total denial mode. I wrote and said again and again -- hand over all the investigation about the IM to a central investigating agency for a co-ordinated investigation instead of their being investigated by the police in a piecemeal manner in different states ruled by different political parties. No reaction.



From a localised threat, jihadi terrorism has become a pan-Indian threat with a pan-Islamic ideology. Deal with it with a pan-Indian strategy, I said. No reaction.



The terrorists arrested some weeks ago in Mumbai, three of whom were IT experts well-placed in transnational companies, pose a new dimension of the threat. Seek the help of the US, I said. No reaction.



I drew attention to an article by Hamid Mir, journalist from Pakistan, which spoke of Indian Muslims going to Afghanistan to fight with the Taliban [Images] against the US and which also said that India is one of the routes being used by foreign jihadis

going to Afghanistan. No reaction, just as Rajiv Gandhi did not react to repeated wake-up calls from the then Afghan President Najibullah that Muslims from Kashmir were being trained by the Afghan Mujahideen.



In October, when I had come to Delhi for a seminar, two diplomats from EU countries sought an appointment with me for a discussion on the IM. They expressed their surprise and concern over the fact that the Indian intelligence and police

seemed to know so little about the IM despite their having arrested many perpetrators of the previous blasts and interrogated them.



Is the IM the name of an organisation or of a movement? Is it one or many organisations in different states acting, like the International Islamic Front of Osama bin Laden, as a united front -- autonomously where they can and unitedly

where they should? Who constitute its command and control? Where are they? In India or outside? Nobody knows for certain.



I could not sleep the whole of last night. One question which kept bothering me again and again was: how safe are our nuclear establishments and material?



Till now, we were greeting with glee Pakistan's incompetence in dealing with terrorism. We can no longer do so. We have become as clueless as Pakistan.



I wanted to write much more, but my mind doesn't work. As I watch on the TV what is happening in Mumbai, I shiver and sweat at the thought of what is waiting to happen tomorrow and where.



(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2W@gmail.com)

B Raman
SaiK
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by SaiK »

Let me ask this, would our Indian politics consider this as first strike if the terrorists attack our nuclear installations.. (assume / given that our intelli-gents IQ level remains the same)?

--------ps:

Image
Nikhil T
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Nikhil T »

People's anger and a crumbling spy agency

The tirade against Chaturvedi keeps getting stronger. The Govt. would be well served to throw Ashok Chaturvedi and Sanjiv Tripathi out of RAW to some admin position and make the Pak expert Banerji the head. Ask the next chief to deliver in a timebound fashion, and let RAW resume its weekly reports to the PM.

I assume that the "obscure website" would be Middle East Times (??)
Since the last one year many stories have been leaked about RAW to an obscure web site. Never before has so much muck been printed against the country's intelligence agency without any attempt to stop it. Can't RAW really fix these leaks?

Talent is not known a virtue in RAW these days, say Narayanan's defenders. RAW is doomed for the time being whoever becomes its boss.
Pranay
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Pranay »

For all the outrage --- a dose of sad reality.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7760460.stm


'Rot' at heart of Indian intelligence

By Soutik Biswas
BBC News, Mumbai

India's commando forces took hours to reach the battle in Mumbai

The blame game over who was responsible for bloody terror attacks in the western Indian city of Mumbai (Bombay) has a sense of déjà vu about it.

Security experts have criticised the response to the attacks, which left nearly 200 people dead, as "amateurish, sluggish and feeble".

Indian intelligence agencies are leaking information that they gave about half a dozen warnings to the government in Maharashtra state - of which Mumbai is the capital.

The reports say Maharashtra was warned that strikes were being planned on city landmarks, including, possibly, the Taj Mahal hotel at the historic Gateway of India.

Authorities in Mumbai flatly deny that they received any tip-offs. "It is unimaginable that we would have got this sensitive information and not react," says state Interior Secretary Chitkala Zutshi.

Knee-jerk responses

But security experts confirm that information extracted from a group of Indian and Pakistani men arrested in northern India earlier this year revealed that some men belonging to Pakistan-based groups had done a reconnaissance of major landmarks in Mumbai. The agencies had also been picking up militant chatter on attacks in the city.

The police in India are working on manpower and equipment assessments last made in the 1970s

Security analyst Praveen Swami

Yet the local police and intelligence agencies appeared to have failed to act on any of the information - despite doubts as to whether the information was shared promptly enough between the Mumbai authorities.

This is a story which keeps repeating itself in a country which has been hit by over half a dozen big "terror attacks" this year - the central and local security authorities trade charges over the sharing and quality of intelligence, followed by knee-jerk responses and investigations which fizzle out in a couple of years.

The attacks and their aftermath again point to the rot that has set into the country's internal security system and a lack of cohesion between civilian and security wings of the government.

One telling example: six days after the attack, even the number of dead and injured keeps going up and down, due to poor co-ordination between the police and hospitals.


More seriously, the Indian police appear to be incapacitated by a lack of money and training. Poor working conditions, rudimentary surveillance and communications equipment, inadequate forensic science laboratories and outdated weaponry are making matters worse.

"The Mumbai attacks prove that the whole system is falling apart. The police in India are working on manpower and equipment assessments last made in the 1970s," says security analyst Praveen Swami.

The fact that the gunmen came by sea - and sneaked into the city through a crowded fishing colony - points to almost non-existent coastal police patrols, as a local officer admits.

All that the police have is a couple of launches. They have no radar.

The Mumbai police - like most police in India - remain in a time warp: they are equipped with World War II vintage rifles and carbines handed down by the army. In most states, an average policeman's salary and status is equivalent to that of an unskilled municipal worker, encouraging corruption.

Inadequate protection

Budgets do not extend to supplying food to police personnel on shift, so many end up extorting food from street hawkers. They also routinely hitch free rides because they don't have enough vehicles.


Training and faster response times are urgently needed, critics say

Bullet proof vests are of inferior quality and phone interception equipment remains largely rudimentary.

And three years after the central government announced the setting up an ambitious National Police Mission to set out the future needs and requirements of the force, nothing has happened.

India's commando forces are also not exactly in good shape.

A group of the elite 7,400-strong National Security Guards (NSG) - who were flown in to Mumbai eight hours after the attacks - is based near the capital, Delhi. Many of the commandos, say experts, are wasted in giving protection to politicians and other VIPs.

The country's best commando force does not have its own aircraft. As a result, it has become used to spending hours reaching crisis locations, with mixed results.

"On average, the commando force has taken six to seven hours to reach and begin their operations and get their act together every time they have been called for. There have been delays," says Praveen Swami.

He says the commandos have been trained to rescue small groups of people. "They have not been trained on multiple location operations of such scale."

'No way to fight terrorism'

Any deficiencies in their training may be explained by the fact that a Mumbai-type attack only happens very rarely.


Attackers arrived by sea, police say

That is why Indian security experts like Ajai Sahni say that the response to the attacks was so poor.

"This is no way to fight terrorism," he says.

After the Mumbai attacks, the local government announced it would set up a state commando force: to begin with, some 500 armed men would be ready in four months.

This, when the basic training for the NSG commandos takes six months. And Maharashtra, along with other states, has no commando training centres.

A number of states where there have been attacks by Maoist rebels plan to raise their own commando forces, but early results point to hasty, faulty planning.

The authorities in eastern Orissa state, for example, hired 8,000 new policemen for anti-Maoist operations, but found to their dismay that it took six months to train just 350 of them.

There are allegations that many of the candidates paid bribes to get into the force.


India is seen as a 'soft' target

Painfully slow and lazy bureaucracy means that the modernisation of the security forces often takes ages. Police in Uttar Pradesh state took four years to buy imported surveillance equipment.

By the time it arrived, it had become outdated and now lies disused. One police official even paid by his own credit card to pick up a piece of $60 equipment from a foreign website for his forces because it would have taken him months, if not years, to acquire it.

With their bureaucratic ways of working, the intelligence agencies are also struggling.

There is a dearth of language specialists. India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), is reported by insiders to have only two Arabic and two Chinese language specialists, hired from language schools.

But the best do not stay on because of poor wages, and one of the Chinese language specialists who was trained in cyber-technology quit to join one of India's top industrial groups.

"Things have to begin from scratch to boost internal security in India. Authorities should come clean to the people and tell them how bad the situation is and set time-bound targets to begin improving security infrastructure," says Praveen Swami.

Otherwise, he warns, India will continue to be one of the softest targets for terror strikes in the world.
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Post by Nikhil T »

The consequences of the Mumbai attacks

Stratfor's geo-political analysis of the consequences of the Mumbai attack for India-Pak-US and the psyche behind the attacks.
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