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The honor and dignity of the army of the Islamic republic of Pakistan, homeland of Islamic piety and purity, has been mixed with pig blood by Operation Geronimo or whatever the operation to catch bin Laden was called.
Pakistanians are now writing in agony trying to make up all sorts of excuses and stories to show that their army was not fooled and made to look like idiots they have proven themselves to be time and again. It is being said that the army nearly caught bin Laden but was treacherously wronged by the US who grabbed him after the Pakistanians found him.
But we are not as stupid as Pakis look today
The real truth of the feeling in the Paki army is one of seething anger and frustration and a deep loss of morale. They are going to try and regain that morale by doing something drastic.
Last edited by shiv on 18 May 2011 05:42, edited 5 times in total.
Shiv - Let us not assume there exists a path for redemption or redemption is possible. I assert the image damage is irreversible for the Paki army and ISI. Humiliation in this case is a one way street.
Please reword the poll question to "In an attempt to redeem Paki army/......" or "In a futile attempt to redeem Paki army/.....".
Pakistanis might also test a few Chinese Nukes and Kiyani & co would make some statements to provoke India. US might actually accept it for greater good to keep the morale of the Pakistan Army up. In 6 months the dust clouds would settle. China would give unconditional support to Pakistan in these difficult times and actually ask India to solve Kashmir to avoid a nuclear war in south asia! turds like teresita schitter, Darkha butt and anatol lickin would have an orgy demanding a nuclear free south asia and accommodating concerns of Pakistanis wrt Kashmir.
the bakis probably have sleeper cells in india. that is probably behind their statemennts.
and then the pakis have to factor in the options of our forces mobilising within 48 hours.
How does Paki army/ISI's regain lost virginity and in whose eyes? If riots happen in India, they will make Mango abduls feel good but not necessarily enhance the honor of Paki army since Pak army would have nothing to do with it.
The only way Paki army can regain the lost cojones is either by inciting India/US/Afghan to somehow attack them in open or in stealth and then defend the borders. This could mean a small border skirmish like Sir Creek in '65 or downing couple of US Helis using Manpads and hoping that Pak army emerges victorious and their
The other way is if Paki Army somehow defends Arabic barbarians from Israel but for that you need to make Israel attack one of the Arab nation and then somehow let Pak get involved in this war.
Can't see Paki Terrorist army regaining the lost virginity by any other means. As far as exploding bombs within India, in reality no one gives a $hit because for a mango Paki, probably Amar singh from B'lore Kerala exploded the bomb.
Problem with faking attack on nuclear capabilities is that it might give ideas and push to those who want to steal something from these nuclear facilities as well forcing the hands fo 3.5 friends as no one wants lose nukes roaming around.
NSD foiled one such attempt to kill our consul general in Jalalabad. Expect more to come.
More than Western, it will be Indian rather Afghan targets that will be struck. Western targets will invite disproportionate response and striking Afghan targets will skew the pitch for political rehab of Taliban being attempted now and roping in Afg into Pak-China nexus. Indian targets are soft and retaliation is non-existent as seen from the previous two attacks.
Maybe it's time we ramp our presence in Afg adding more teeth and claws.
My own views: H&D is primarily an excuse. They know how to manufacture H&D using the media if necessary. This is all about extracting the maximum amount of baksheesh from Unkil. (See WSJ article posted in TIRP thread. http://www.google.com/search?q=WSJ+%22U ... 22&tbm=nws )
There might be a colonel's coup attempt, but unlikely to succeed (IMHO).
There will be no coup attempt from Kayani's level. What for? It is not like the civilians are trying to make a move against him. Why would he want to be in the hot seat and not have the civilians as a buffer zone for diverting criticism?
Pakis honor is restored when they can stage something, so equal equal to SDREs is restored. Pakis will sacrifice the next important target alqeda no.X, by smuggling him into kafir/Indian territory, and then leaking that info publicly.
The alqedas' must be desperate to rest their well being with napakis. They can't even provide shelter to assorted mullahs, starting with the principal OBL. How can they claim to protect and preserve the ideology that is represented by OBL? Surely, global ummah must be taking notes, and have come to a conclusion about the impotency of napakiness. Maybe a lesson for all other aspiring paki-wannabes too.
The hiding of ashwa in Kapila maharishi's ashram comes to mind. Could that be a feeble attempt at equal equalitis, where the unfortunate alqeda number X, is betrayed and hidden in kafir lands (not necessarily in India), only to be outed at convenience. pakis have an urgency to globalize their problems.
terrorist attack coming quarter, yeah it sounds callous, but that is the easiest for poaks and water always flow through least resistance as in easiest, no?
Sir good you allowed 2 options. Voted 3,4 and in that order.
Option 1: will conduct a massive terrorist attack on India
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That's an obvious choice but really not so obvious because of 26/11. Another one and India might actually have to do something.
Not likely.
Not at this time.
Option 2: will try and engineer a religious riot by attacking a place of worship in India
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Does does not for TSPA morale boost. If any, only negative. Can't take responsibility and only shows the unpious afasr class of TSPA for NOT protecting birathers. (with due respect to Indian Muslims, just making an argument here from TSPA POV)
Not likely.
Option 3: will restart shelling at the border to inflitrate terrorists
My First Vote. This is a realistic option.
2 reasons:
1. This it can try to do since it has the capacity.
Do not know how much of it will 'happen' this time around. Things aren't what they used to be.
2. More worrysome is, if you consider what TSPA options be AFTER Indian all the delayed acquistions are completed (for coventional forces). What TSPA touts as, 'offensive-defence' I would imagine will be reduced to a 'defensive-defence' (and a lower nuclear threshold).
For that reason, I would say, today TSPA today has some options compared to even fewer options it will have tomorrow. In it lies the temptation.
Option 4: will execute a major Indian/Afghan/Western assassination
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This also seems more likely to me since US is supposed to make some noises about withdrawal in July. TSPA would want to push out India from Afghanistan and regain some initiative.
Small 'effort' compared to 'gains' especially since raw is, well, research and analysis wing.
Option 5: will play victim and stage a fake attack on their own nuke facilities
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TSP will only draw attention to world's 'loose nukes' fears.
Not likely.
Option 6: will be able to do nothing more than cry
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This it should do.
I think contrary to what it is venting TSPA is STILL loathe to change it's 'loyalties' from US to China inspite of 'best friend'.
I think it is called two timing.
Option 7:There will be a General's coup
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No need.
Optiom 8: A lower rank (colonel's coup) will occur
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That is the trouble with this OBL raid.
Can blame all around except difficult to explain why this mighty good fauj is tweedling thumbs.
Option 6 and 8 are the 2 contrasting problems it is facing now, hence need to consider all other options.
Option 9: this poll is all balls. Will post my own views
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This poll is not balls but my 2 cents.
There is a chance that TSPA will launch the long awaited 'crackdown' on all these strategic asse(t)s. That is a possiblity. I will *really* be surprised. Not likely.
Conducting a terrorist atrocity against the SDREs with deniability is a time-tested, riskfree, and easy to accomplish option for the pakis. There is virtually no other course of action that would not invite some more negative international/US attention. Especially any faked attack on their own nuke facilities is likely to trigger an extreme response by the US already deeply worried about the safety of the maal in pakistan. The pakis wont shoot themselves in the foot in this way - they are tactically brilliant, remember.
Killing Indians in India or Afghanistan is a far more likely course of action. Shaming the Indians should make the mango abduls feel good and the army/ISI regain some credibility and confidence in their ability to hurt India, which is what matters in the final analysis.
Hence, I go for 1 and 2.
Last edited by Harish on 18 May 2011 09:49, edited 1 time in total.
Pakistan Army juniors need not cry and wait for something, juniors are capable of taking down the seniors. I suspect that whenever there is a news of terrorists attacking military facilities (not bomb attacks)
Of course the best option from Pak view point is a massive (pref nuclear) attack on India
Kiyani level coup could also happen to forestall a Colonels Coup.
Yes, in fact, this is what will happen: a fake "Colonels' Coup" will be staged, and Kiyani will use that as a pretext to stage his General's Coup. This is inevitable if the US continues trying to increase the power of "civilian govt" at the expense of TSPA/ISI.
A better option for Kiyani would have been to stage his General's Coup on a pretext of staged "terrorist attack on nuclear sites"; but as Sunday Express revealed, that might bring 101st Airborne down on the crown jewels. So he will settle for the "Colonel's Coup" instead.
I voted that they will be able to do nothing more than cry, and also that this poll is all balls, hence this post.
I think the initiative is definitely with the Americans, for the first time in years. However, this is a tenuous situation, as there are still 100,000 Americans and 30,000 other coalition forces behind Pakistan. There is already, transit of non-lethal material through Russia and CAS states, and believe me, NATO and the Americans are very well stocked. (Has anyone heard of lethal supplies along this route?) Effectively, from a logistics standpoint, this is a waiting game. The longer the Americans wait, the stronger will become the Pakistani hand, as coalition supplies dwindle -- so the race is on for a catalyzing event.
First, the staging event, to really warm-up the American war machine; is the impending trial of Rana in Chicago, who will do whatever is necessary to avoid getting effed by the lethal prick that is on offer, if Headley's testimony damns him as badly as it can. This will further embroil the ISI and the rest of the TSP into the terrorist category.
As the US rides into the next election cycle, the strong hand would be to confront the TSP more directly. I don't think that Americans have ever voted to change administrations during a time of war, with the exception of Bush-43 ==>> Obama-44. To get there, some changes are required on the ground, in Afghanistan -- the 'catalyzing event'.
Purely going on conjecture, here; I wouldn't be surprised if Karzai is assassinated. It will look like TSP-backed Taliban, but in actuality, this will be (an American/NorAlliance) false-flag operation. In the wake of Karzai's death, after an election cycle, Amrullah Saleh will regain the top-job in Afghanistan, and for the first time since 2001 -- the real fight will be on, for real. Pashtuns will lose out in present-day Afghanistan, with the promise/possibility of their own Pashtunistan in the near future. A lot of it will be made-up of present day Pakistan. The Duran line will disappear. Afghanistan will find peace and prosperity, when it is divorced from Pashtunistan. If someone can put forward a credible plan for a pipeline through that thin sliver of Afghanistan, toward China -- then even China will play along, and then there will be no need for Pakistan at all, not for the Americans or the Chinese.
Although this scenario does contain copious amounts of wishful thinking, things certainly look pretty grim, any way you look at it. I hope this can be done as bloodlessly as possible.
I voted for 6 & 8. ManuT very good reasoning there. Should contribute more.
Rudradev, Recall the Indonesian coup in 1965. It led to emergence of Suharto and destruction of the commies. So whats to have a fake coup and qadrify the Saeeds etc and become new born again munna?
BTW, from latest Nightwatch 5/17 report there is convergence in born again Al Qeeda and Pakiban to take over TSP and not waste themselves in Afghanistan. So things are afoot. Matter of when and not if.
ramana wrote:
i want hazar thinkers to keep thinking and worrying for desh.
I have a one liner for all of us in the US PRC relationship thread.
Sir,
Obviously some of us are on/lurk here. BRF is no place for kids nor is it bharat-matrimony (or <SomeState>-matrimony) where the agenda is kind of obvious.
The world has problems and I/we am aware of those from an Indian POV. These problems have to solved 1 individual at a time.
USP of India is in its thought, so sir, I guess, you mean doers coming from this thinking. Yes, there is a problem (of shortage) there (including me).
habal wrote:wasn't it predicted on BeeRF that Pakistan would soon conduct an attack on it's armed forces sensitive installations in order to regain the sympathy & 'Pakistan is suffering from terrorism' moral high ground after Abottabad ?
Navy being weakest of Pakistani triad may also have given added impetus for operation to be directed against it.
