Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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ShibaPJ
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by ShibaPJ »

Brilliant story-telling, Vivekji. I bow. Have been a huuuge fan of your writing and plan to pre-order your book, once you publish the details. :) you always manage to leave us with 'Dil maange more' feeling! W.r.t. the scenario, I feel that in reality India would have to retaliate with nuke salvo, as some of the scenarios might not play out as easy for us:

- Track and take out so many missiles with precise conventional missiles
- None of India-bound missiles surviving the counter-attacks
- Chinese BMD inability to take down the single A3
- A single-front war continuing into the end of 2nd week

But, what the heck!!! This is a refreshing change from the real-life that sucks.. We have a maun, sealed-lips PM and a pathetic GoI continuing Aman ki tamasha with the abomination to our West.. You have the entire forum waiting on how it plays out.. Please post the next scenario before the weekend. Pleaaaase.
Last edited by ShibaPJ on 13 Jan 2013 06:48, edited 1 time in total.
gkriish
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by gkriish »

Don't stop it now Vivek it is getting very interesting and cannot wait for another week please continue posting ASAP.......
parshuram
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by parshuram »

Few Things.

1. I agree with somebody saying "Unfair with Bhutan".Chicoms want a nuclear show down so be it.
2. Why only a single A-3 launch if it is a conventional strike. Take out as far as shanghai. Use A-5.
3. With War going nuclear and chinese doing it, I am sure Unkil will not sit idle. Should see Nimitz class heading towards south china sea with intent now.May be Tomhawk launches oon certain Chinese sites may be imminent
4. Vivek Saar, you Rock what a Saturday Night barbeque.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

Few notes for clarification:
Singha wrote:Cheen would still have plenty of DF-21 available for redeployment from the east or directly fire from there against east india targets.
They have about 75 launchers at the start of the war. Slightly more missile rounds than launchers. 65 launchers destroyed in initial strike and counting. At this point DF-21Cs are out of the war. On side note we have used as many Agni-Is and Agni-IIs as well.
RamaY wrote:That is not fair to Bhutan :(
Nyet, comrade. It is not. Major point in play here.
RamaY wrote:I think that Beijing A3 attack should be nuclear, even if it meant escalation. China, for all it's antiques need to see the light at the end of the asuric tunnel they dug themselves into :evil:
Note that the attack is west of Beijing and on the N-CC. Not on the city. Trading cities has been restrained by both sides for now. Military targets only at the moment.

Strike against CMC members on way to N-CC need not be nuclear if the final result is the same.

Also please note the timelines on each scene. We are talking about a very short time period here. So more to follow.

I appreciate the patience comrades. :)
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

Vivek ji,

Today is the start of Makara Samkranti festival. So you may want to continue the war and end the terror of Asuras.

Starting Monday, we will be in a new era, the 'day' of Devatas.
From Makar Sankranti starts the ‘day’ of devatas(Gods), while dakshinayana (southward movement of the sun) is said to be the ‘night’ of devatas, so most of the auspicious things are done during this time. Uttarayana is also called as Devayana, and the dakshinayana' is called Pitrayana.[citation needed]

It was on this day when Lord Vishnu ended the ever increasing terror of the Asuras(Demons) by finishing them off and burying their heads under the Mandara Parvata. So this occasion also represents the end of 'negativities' and beginning of an era of righteous living.[citation needed]
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

So Vivek ji,

Are you saying Bhutan paid the price for not being official territory of Bharat? Perhaps you can cover this aspect in your epilogue if not in the main story?

This war, should make the nanha nations in this area to become self-aware and join their mother civilization?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

RamaY wrote:So Vivek ji,

Are you saying Bhutan paid the price for not being official territory of Bharat? Perhaps you can cover this aspect in your epilogue if not in the main story?

This war, should make the nanha nations in this area to become self-aware and join their mother civilization?
I am not saying anything. :)

At the moment, the Paru and Barshong valleys are still echoing with thunder. Let the scenario catch up with what has just transpired. ;)
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Singha »

I have some criticism of the force usage here

- I agree one or two A3 at most could be pre-mated with HE warhead to fire a warning shot on beijing or shanghai and then sealed inside cansister, but not more given our paltry numbers. so that part looks ok.

- wasting 60 A1 and A2 sounds excessive to me, because it is not possible to change warheads quickly without using a crane and a proper facility, all these HE armed missiles would need to be premated with HE warheads and deployed to the field...that sounds like suicide to me given our palty nos and no first use doctrine. there is absolutely no guarantee that our C3 assets can keep a constant eye on 2nd arty assets , because there is no certainty of the air domination described here, or that such assets will be insufficient and not taken out or driven off stattion. for better or worse we lack the kind of early warning IR sats whose screenshot Austin posted from a Rus command center....so its mainly launch on impact for us to authorize release of n-weapons and launch on warning (swordfish type radar) to authorize release of HE weapons.

I am afraid if we tip 60 such vital missiles with HE that too in locations quick enough to reach delinga area , we will be nook nanga if the 2nd arty launches a big strike from another place like sinkiang or sichuan using another of their regiments. this as a indian PM I wouldnt do though cannot predict what our sikular harvard trained intellects can make themselves believe in.

I would maybe keep 15-20 such conventionally armed things and use them in scenario above, let the n-missiles impact where they will and follow up with a equal number of n-warheads distributed in the exact same way across cheen military and civilian targets. so they kill 200,000 people in bhutan they are going to lose 200,000 people in sichuan or yunnan in a similar size of town.

killing a few CPC members wont scare Liu, already in a rage and deep in his bunker. he is going to argue decapitation and call for release codes of the DF31 and JL2 now.

I fear nothing other than a joint US-Rus threat to stand down and demonstration strikes with PGS weapons on some cheen assets will make Liu see reason now, he seems too far gone = he will get everyone killed or need to be shot in the back of head with a pistol by chairman Peng himself. maybe the two 094 SSBNs on patrol in east china sea , rising to missile firing depth might suddenly get blown apart by mk48 or UGST HWTs fired by unknown miscreants tailing them :twisted:
Last edited by Singha on 13 Jan 2013 08:48, edited 1 time in total.
RamaY
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

GD

This is what I posted a while back on missile numbers...

RamaY wrote::twisted: Bravo Vivekji!

Kudos to you that you are breaking the nonsensical assumption that only Pakis and China can escalate a war to the next level.

No hurry on the force attrition levels. I am hoping once you have your excel sheet worked on it would be nice to see the expected attrition levels on a day to day basis in the first 10-15 days. Given the a-prachya nature of our neighbors they will not be able to fight a long-drawn conventional wars over many months and years. Throughout the world the longevity of the wars are determined by the type of weapons they have in their hands. Given the fact that both the A-prachya neighbors have nukes, they will be tempted to use them at perceived red-lines.

My research shows that we might have anywhere between

150-250 Prithvis
60-80 agni 1s.

Assuming we keep 20% of them + Agni 2&3 for strategic purposes (how many nuke targets we have in china in 250-1000km range?), the rest (80% of Prithvis and agni 1s) can be used for conventional purposes?

That is at least 30-50 Agnis an be used to cleaning up the yellow sh*t in Tibet and reclaim the nuke assets for peaceful Tibetans? :mrgreen:
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

How many nukes India has?

Assuming it has 80-90 nukes, we can say 20 of them are with IAF, 12-20 are on Arihant.

That leaves hardly 40-50 nukes. How many missiles are required to deliver them, assuming a handful of missiles have MIRVs, if this is an option?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

I was about to post something along the lines of what RamaY has already covered: warheads.

The numbers that India has is actually far too low to try and go toe-to-toe with Cheen IMO. They are only to be used against cities and major military targets like airbases and ports perhaps. Certainly the number of missiles outstrips our warheads leaving very many for the conventional role.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by rajanb »

deleted....
Last edited by rajanb on 13 Jan 2013 09:22, edited 1 time in total.
tushar_m

Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by tushar_m »

RamaY wrote:How many nukes India has?

Assuming it has 80-90 nukes, we can say 20 of them are with IAF, 12-20 are on Arihant.

That leaves hardly 40-50 nukes. How many missiles are required to deliver them, assuming a handful of missiles have MIRVs, if this is an option?
secrets are kept in India believe or no that is true

i remember an incident when we have denied that we have chemical weapons & even signed it with pakistan.

few years later then PM called Mr .K. Subrahmanyam that there is a UN delegates coming & we have to destroy our chemical weapons in-front of them . Mr .K. Subrahmanyam asked him that how can we have chemical weapons when we have signed a treaty with pakistan . He replied that the beauty of India is that we keep the secrets that are meant to be kept.

the moral of the incident is that we have mentioned 80-90 warheads but there could be many more in some secret bunker .......

don't forget we have enough material to produce produce maybe 500+ warheads without problem & lot of military reactors which are not under safeguard to do the same.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Subrahmanyam
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by SriniY »

Vivek Sir,

Brilliant writing. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Have a few comments and questions

1) What about the Chinese satellite recon capability. They would have also detected the deployment of A-III on the field and several missile launchers being brought into position.

2) Given that BM strikes have been planned and going on from both sides, how realistic is to assume that several senior people from the politburo and military command will be physically present in a single location.

3) The 80-90 nukes number is several years old. We would definitely have more by now.

4) Dr. Saraswat mentioned that we also have ASAT capability though not demonstrated. Does a 10 day war give enough time for them to reconfigure for this capability.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by nash »

Last war, we finished in 14 days with 90K POW and change in world map.

Seem like in here also it will finished within 14 days with POW if any body left in those chinese 2 divison and probably change in world map again, may be independence of tibet or we definitely get back aksai chin.

But one thing is sure now chinese will know the status of war , so much so for face saving.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Chinmayanand »

Where is the Indian nuke response ? :evil: How about launching nukes at the remaining Cheeni nuclear sites and ofcourse one big town as well ? The cat is already out of the bag.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Misraji »

Further development depends on how much of the Politburo has been wiped out.

Ideally we should still be aiming for Aksai-chin + Tibet + War-reparations.
The time-interval for India to use a nuke will not last long as other super-powers rush in to bring the situation under control.

Frankly, keep the nuclear knife sharp.
Negotiate for Aksai-Chin + Tibet.

I think it has been sufficiently demonstrated that China is not nuclear-responsible nation and Tibet should be freed from its rule.

--Ashish
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Armed forces need its own satellite system with high accuracy and resolution. MILSAT to keep eye on pakis and chinese. We need to form a defence network of friendly countries and keep few satellites with them as Proxy so that if our satellites are knocked out some remain.
And so the few satellites that had remote-sensing capabilities had been loaned from ISRO to the Aerospace Command
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

vivek_ahuja wrote:PARU VALLEY
BHUTAN
DAY 12 + 0732 HRS


As the sudden brilliant flash of light overhead paled the sun, Squadron-Leader Saxena jerked his head upwards and saw the expanding ball of white light a thousand feet above the town to his west. North of the town, Lieutenant-Colonel Fernandez also brought his arm in front of his face as ball expanded and then smashed into the town to his south. It was the last thing both men ever saw. The one-hundred-fifty kiloton nuclear warhead exploded over the town and the ball of flash and flame expanded radially over the town, instantly enveloping thousands of citizens there and did not stop. It flashed over Paru airport like a brick wall of flame and debris that swept aside the two parked An-32s on the ground and smashed past the bombed-out remains of the terminal buildings as well as the dozens of army trucks and other vehicles. North of the tow, it wiped out the trees and the forests and ate up the convoy of resupply trucks that were moving to Fernandez’s Pinaka unit. A second later it swept past the launchers, rolling them in a wall of debris and flame along with all of the Paratroopers from the 12TH Para Battalion…


BARSHONG
NORTHERN BHUTAN
DAY 12 + 0732 HRS


Pathanya, Vikram and the other members of Spear team dived for cover. Six kilometers west of the village occupied by the 11TH Para Battalion, the saw the flash of light over the ridges near Barshong and had to wince away from it. The snow on all peaks around Barshong instantly flashed away under the intense heat and revealed the brown rocky layers underneath. Vikram saw the pressure wave rapidly approaching them as it engulfed the valley and the village and covered his head with his hands behind the boulders a few seconds before the shockwave swept past them…
oh My God Why Bhutan??
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

RamaY wrote:I think that Beijing A3 attack should be nuclear, even if it meant escalation. China, for all it's antiques need to see the light at the end of the asuric tunnel they dug themselves into :evil:
So far we have nothing against Ordinary Chinese citizens. Conventional attack on National command centre , if it takes out their top military and political leadership , if far better option and a harbinger of true change in China for better, a democratic China. I hope people in China would see the true colours of their leaders and take charge.
This should also enable us to take Tibet as one of the Indian State with special status or as independent state under Indian defense control.

Nuke option is not yet closed if CMC retains any authority over Chinese Forces/political command.

But we might need A5 to reach beijing, dont we?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Use of ASAT weapons by China is surprising given the convention against its use. I hope I am not wrong here.
WHat about Chinese satellites? are they not monitoring our launches in RT? They should be sufficiently alerted by A3 A2 A1 Launches. The flight time of A5 from Assam would be longer to give enough warning signs. I think Beijing NCC should be better served by Launches from Arihant, not nuke but Conventional.

Its a good thing to take out NCC. I hope Liu is gone too. His action has taken out our brave Farnandez and Pathanya and His company and perhaps Warlord Central in Bhutan? They will truly attain Moksha. True BharatPutra.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Misraji wrote:Further development depends on how much of the Politburo has been wiped out.

Ideally we should still be aiming for Aksai-chin + Tibet + War-reparations.
The time-interval for India to use a nuke will not last long as other super-powers rush in to bring the situation under control.

Frankly, keep the nuclear knife sharp.
Negotiate for Aksai-Chin + Tibet.

I think it has been sufficiently demonstrated that China is not nuclear-responsible nation and Tibet should be freed from its rule.

--Ashish
If Nagari is taken out Aksai Chin would be childs play for India. I think India should take control of the area . Negotiate only after controlling the presently occupied territory. Negotiate for return of their war prisoners only.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Klaus »

This A3 strike still does not do complete damage. The Qinghe district, the operational HQ of 2nd Arty is still intact. Still capable of launching from the cavernous belly of the Taihang ranges.

The 2nd Arty is a wounded beast, it will have to be decapitated to avenge Bhutan!
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Singha wrote:I have some criticism of the force usage here

- I agree one or two A3 at most could be pre-mated with HE warhead to fire a warning shot on beijing or shanghai and then sealed inside cansister, but not more given our paltry numbers. so that part looks ok.

- wasting 60 A1 and A2 sounds excessive to me, because it is not possible to change warheads quickly without using a crane and a proper facility, all these HE armed missiles would need to be premated with HE warheads and deployed to the field...that sounds like suicide to me given our palty nos and no first use doctrine. there is absolutely no guarantee that our C3 assets can keep a constant eye on 2nd arty assets , because there is no certainty of the air domination described here, or that such assets will be insufficient and not taken out or driven off stattion. for better or worse we lack the kind of early warning IR sats whose screenshot Austin posted from a Rus command center....so its mainly launch on impact for us to authorize release of n-weapons and launch on warning (swordfish type radar) to authorize release of HE weapons.

I am afraid if we tip 60 such vital missiles with HE that too in locations quick enough to reach delinga area , we will be nook nanga if the 2nd arty launches a big strike from another place like sinkiang or sichuan using another of their regiments. this as a indian PM I wouldnt do though cannot predict what our sikular harvard trained intellects can make themselves believe in.

I would maybe keep 15-20 such conventionally armed things and use them in scenario above, let the n-missiles impact where they will and follow up with a equal number of n-warheads distributed in the exact same way across cheen military and civilian targets. so they kill 200,000 people in bhutan they are going to lose 200,000 people in sichuan or yunnan in a similar size of town.

killing a few CPC members wont scare Liu, already in a rage and deep in his bunker. he is going to argue decapitation and call for release codes of the DF31 and JL2 now.

I fear nothing other than a joint US-Rus threat to stand down and demonstration strikes with PGS weapons on some cheen assets will make Liu see reason now, he seems too far gone = he will get everyone killed or need to be shot in the back of head with a pistol by chairman Peng himself. maybe the two 094 SSBNs on patrol in east china sea , rising to missile firing depth might suddenly get blown apart by mk48 or UGST HWTs fired by unknown miscreants tailing them :twisted:
SFC has two wings and one controls conventional and and the other Nuclear. Both of them are allotted Missiles separately. At the beginning of war conventional will be mated and kept ready for launching at short notice. Nuclear may not be mated unless authorised by PM.

So I would think that India would have enough to launch 60-70 Agni1 2 in Conventional mode while keeping Nuclear missiles separate. If not then this represents urgent need for India to build up Missile inventory quickly.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Manish_Sharma »

RamaY wrote:How many nukes India has?

Assuming it has 80-90 nukes, we can say 20 of them are with IAF, 12-20 are on Arihant.

That leaves hardly 40-50 nukes. How many missiles are required to deliver them, assuming a handful of missiles have MIRVs, if this is an option?
Crossposting from 'Su 30 thread' :

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1386105
Manish_Sharma wrote:Is it just my wishful thinking or can we guess that our n' warhead number could be around 500 now.

If we go by 50 Agnis each, series Agni 1 to Agni 5 we will have 250 Agni missiles for nuke delivery , then 100 Shaurya missiles comes to 350 warheads. Suppose we have 250 Prithvis and 100 Prithvis are nuke-warhead-fitted, while rest have non-nuclear warheads. The warhead numbers comes to 450. Another 40 warheads for Sukhois , would mean 490 warheads?

from tushar_m's link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Subrahmanyam
This was met with great suspicion in Pakistani circles, and seen variously as an insult or a challenge. He also concluded in the 90's that India needed only 150-odd warheads to achieve minimum deterrence. And that this had been achieved by 1990, a point noted by many as a good reference to India's nuclear stockpile.
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 13 Jan 2013 15:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

http://blog.project2049.net/2011/08/spo ... -icbm.html
A Chinese government-affiliated publication has identified Major General Liu as the newly assigned commander of 55 Base (96301 Unit), China’s premier intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) command headquartered in the western Hunan city of Huaihua. Liu replaced Major General Lu Fu’en, who was promoted to Second Artillery chief of staff in December 2010. Lu—in turn—replaced Lieutenant General Wei Fenghe (b. 1954), [1] who was assigned as People’s Liberation Army (PLA) deputy chief of the General Staff Department (GSD). Wei’s move to a senior position within the GSD reflects the Second Artillery’s growing prominence within the Chinese defense establishment. Furthermore, these personnel shifts suggest the significant role of the 55 Base in the Second Artillery’s organizational structure and the importance that the Chinese leadership attaches to the ICBM units’ function in its overall missile defense strategy. [2]
Image
Born in Shandong’s Jining County in February 1957, Liu has roots in the Second Artillery’s ICBM community. He was assigned to 55 Base’s 803 Brigade in Jingzhou as a junior officer, and remained in the unit for more than a decade (see Chart I below). Liu was a junior member of the DF-5 operational test and evaluation unit within the brigade, and participated in test launches in the early 1980s. [3] Liu served as 803 Brigade Commander from 1997, and was subsequently assigned as director of the 55 Base Equipment Department in 2004. In this position, he oversaw the integration of the DH-10 land attack cruise missile (LACM) and new ICBM variants into the base’s missile inventory. He transferred to the Second Artillery’s Communications Department in July 2007, where he managed the force’s nuclear command, control, and communication system. He returned to Huaihua in early or mid-2010 to serve as 55 Base chief of staff until his promotion to commander.

Background on 55 Base

The Central Military Commission (CMC) directed the initiation of launch site preparations in Hunan in August 1966, and 55 Base was formally established on 25 May 1968. An engineering unit (306 Engineering Command) that had returned to its home base of Guangxi Province after service in Vietnam was responsible for infrastructure development. Deployed to the remote southwestern Hunan town of Jingzhou, the command moved to Huaihua in 1970. The first 55 Base commander and political commissar were Mo Yiming and Deng Bo, respectively. Mo and Deng remained in their positions for over a decade. Initial DF-4 and DF-5 missiles entered service with two operational test and evaluation units in the first half of the 1980s.

As 55 Base commander, Major General Liu and his staff oversee three brigades equipped with the DF-4 and DF-5 ICBM systems, and a fourth equipped with the 2,000 kilometers (km) range DH-10 LACM. [4] With an estimated range of at least 13,000 km, the silo-based, liquid-fueled DF-5 (NATO designation of CSS-4) is capable of striking targets throughout most of the continental United States. The DF-4 (NATO designation: CSS-3), with a range of at least 5,500 km, is capable of reaching targets throughout the Asia-Pacific region, including U.S. facilities on Guam.
Well looks like Vivek has done extensive research on profiling his characters on Real ones.



Mods: if inappropriate, please delete it.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

from the pdf quoted above
Given Second Artillery’s high degree of reliance on the nation’s rail and highway system for its nuclear deterrent, a failure in the transport network is cause for concern. One example of a rail failure that potentially affected warhead logistics occurred during the May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake. A train hauling hazardous materials derailed and ignited inside a tunnel in Qinling Mountain s in the vicinity of a primary 22 Base warhead rail transfer point. Rail operations on the Baoji-Chengdu line were shut down for 12 days.The Hongling Command Cell commander responded and arrived on the scene in just over two hours.Another incident on icy roads in the Qinling Mountains resulted in a vehicle pileup that required use of Second Artillery cranes to clear up.
Hit their rail road network and hit them hard. That will reduce their capacity.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by jamwal »

IIRC, Indian NFU stance is only against non-nuclear nations. Against India China & Pakistan don't enjoy such luxury.
If Indians were sure about nuclear warheads of DF-21, they must've been very tempted to use them. What if the missiles which escaped destruction and hit Bhutan were meant for a major Indian city. A big egg on face that would've been.
Somebody posted about role of BMDs. Only Chinese have a theater BMD in form of S-300. Even a majority of those were destroyed a few days back. Indian BMD cover, if deployed by that time period will be available only on 1-2 major cities. Chinese had successfully attacked Delhi using cruise missiles on 1st day itself. So I don't think that Vivek has accounted it in to this scenario. Nobody knows about Indian batteries of S-300 in good detail, although I believe that they are deployed in Delhi area onlee.

Apart from that, is there any information about preparation time and steps for a ballistic missile launch ?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by nash »

I am eagerly waiting for vivkeji's book, which have all the mouth watering details and above all i don't have to wait for what next.Though know the end result but still will be an interesting read.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

This is the image of new storage area for Nuke in China under second Artillery . Shifted from Qinghai to Gansu Lanzhaou due to domestic issue at Qinghai. The mountains are solid granite as per report and see the new road fully equipped to handle large transport. Road up north leads to lanzhou.

Image
Few bridges need to be taken out and that is a mountainous terrain.

You can also see the road coming out of the other side of the mountain. Quite a tunnel.

Located after the report from project2049
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

This serves as storage site for Delingha Launch sites. at qinghai, haixi. posted similar photo earlier.


Image
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

jamwal wrote:IIRC, Indian NFU stance is only against non-nuclear nations. Against India China & Pakistan don't enjoy such luxury.
If Indians were sure about nuclear warheads of DF-21, they must've been very tempted to use them. What if the missiles which escaped destruction and hit Bhutan were meant for a major Indian city. A big egg on face that would've been.
Somebody posted about role of BMDs. Only Chinese have a theater BMD in form of S-300. Even a majority of those were destroyed a few days back. Indian BMD cover, if deployed by that time period will be available only on 1-2 major cities. Chinese had successfully attacked Delhi using cruise missiles on 1st day itself. So I don't think that Vivek has accounted it in to this scenario. Nobody knows about Indian batteries of S-300 in good detail, although I believe that they are deployed in Delhi area onlee.

Apart from that, is there any information about preparation time and steps for a ballistic missile launch ?

Well Non nuclear weapons state cant initiate nuclear strike. So only conventional will be used. But NFU is against nuclear weapons state , i.e if they use it then India will also use it. But for that we need to have second strike capability. It presupposes that.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by jamwal »

Nukes can also be used if territorial integrity is threatened or in case of biological or chemical weapons strike. I don't think that the doctrine is always NFU.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Chinmayanand »

Waiting for a multi-post from Vivek ... :)
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

Jamwaluddin...

That territorial integrity is a paki excuse IMO. That is the logic Pakis are using to bring down the nuke-threshold. How much of territory threatens the territorial integrity of a nation? 10ft or 10mil sa.ft or ?

Secondly by claiming certain area as theirs these mlechas do whatever they want. Retaking PoK could be legitimate for India but can be considered as breech of territorial integrity by pakis. Similarly Tibet may be a buffer zone for India but can be otherwise for china... And so on...

If India has 500 nukes along with that many missiles, then MMS has testimonials.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

Vivek ji...

at least give us BDA in Beijing
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

RamaY wrote: then MMS has testimonials.
You mean testicles??
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by jamwal »

From www.ipcs.org/Indias-Nuclear-Doctrine.pdf
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Art 2.2: The Indian deterrent shall remain credible against all categories of weapons of
mass destruction.

The purpose of nuclear weapons is to protect the Indian state against WMD threats posed by
states and non and sub-state actors. Despite the lack of an agreed definition of the term
WMD, this document has included chemical, biological and radiological attacks in the cate-
gory. This document also does not speculate on the complicity of states in the motives and
actions of sub and non-state actors. The Prime Minister has been given the choice to decide
whether a WMD attack warrants a nuclear response.


NO FIRST USE
Art 4.3: In adherence to its policy of no first use, India will not initiate a nuclear strike.

‘Initiation’ covers the process leading up to the actual use of a nuclear weapon by an adver-
sary. This would include mating component systems and deploying warheads with the intent
of using them if required. This will enable the Prime Minister to gain the flexibility to decide
upon an appropriate response.
and

2. OBJECTIVES

2.1 Protecting the Indian state, from the use or threat of use of nuclear
weapons by any state or entity, is the raison d’être of India’s nuclear
deterrent.

2.2 The Indian deterrent shall remain credible against all categories of weapons
of mass destruction.

2.3 India will not resort to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons against
states that do not possess nuclear weapons, but such states shall be
deemed nuclear weapons states if they ally with or assist nuclear-armed
states against India, and/or assist them during hostilities.


3. THE LEGAL BASIS OF THE DETERRENT

3.1 India’s nuclear deterrent is a manifestation of its right to self defence as
provided in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by AmitG »

NFU looks always good on paper. I doubt if in such a situation, the GOI will take a decision to counter strike or even use Nuclear weapons. The reason why this is easy for China and not for India is because the CPC does not have to face the electorate to be elected. There are no elections where general public votes. In India's case, if any Indian city is destroyed by a nuclear bomb, the ruling party will not come to power in the next 100 years while China or even Pakistan does not have this issue. In case of TSP, a general will take over the control of the government, declare dictatorship and everyone goes to their daily jobs.
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