Bharat Rakshak

Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
It is currently 23 Oct 2014 03:47

All times are UTC + 5:30 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 277 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Author Message
PostPosted: 04 Jan 2013 18:51 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
So nothing on the IRR calculation itself I see.

Yes you have the AERVA claimed number, I tend to depend on reality. IIRC Kudankulam was originally sold to the nation at 3,000 crore per reactor in the 90's after all. BTW if you are interested even at Rs20 crore/MW capacity You need a minimum tariff of Rs 6 or so just to break even.

One little side note. Most maintenance plans for PV include replacing 2%-3% of the panels annually. Mostly to keep up with improving technology. In 25 years you will have a brand new plant yet again. So that is another institutional misunderstanding of PV and how it works.

Nuclear by contrast must be permanently shut down/decommissioned after 40-60 years. But these are too long timescales to worry about.

The question is what is financially viable right now. Not 30 years in the future.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 04 Jan 2013 19:57 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03
Posts: 3567
We need power badly sir. People like myself are not in a position to sleep in the night as power cuts are almost 15,16 hours a day in Tamilnadu. I hope some of this power comes to Tamilnadu. Most of the industires are closed. Forget about the cost factor, it almost become a life and death condition for the economy of Tamilnadu. In fact in many states power is main issue and cost is secondary. We need to do what ever we can to get the power.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 04 Jan 2013 20:13 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 02 Mar 2008 21:10
Posts: 963
^^The 2-3 % provisioning for panels can never make a new plant in 25 years. That 2-3 % would entail replacement of faulty panels done for keeping the plant producing at nominal capacity.

With a capital of Rs 8 crore/MWe of solar PV, as you have put it, and at 40% of capital, solar panels would cost Rs 3.2 crores at today's rate. Replacement of 2% of that would entail Rs 0.064 crores every year. Whereas, in calculating IRR only Rs 0.05 crore per year has been provisioned for the entire O&M costs.

Suffice to say that IRR calculation needs some rethink, and the underlying assumptions a lot of that.

That said, there is no need for touting renewables including solar PV as replacement/ competitor of base generation plants like NPP. All of them have their place, as long as they have independant credit sources.

Alas, all that is being banked upon to prevent NPPs in India is doing another Koodankulam along with likes of PMANE. In that manner, you can rule out any NPP. True, that.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 05 Jan 2013 10:42 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Theo_Fidel wrote:
AFAIK no one refuted my IRR numbers esp. for new nuclear.
One senses a lot of institutional anger at the economic challenge of Solar but it is not going away.

Run this IRR calculation again. New Nuclear.

Project cost ($6.5 Million) +/- 35 Crore / MWhr of capacity. (Flamenville is now heading for $9 million, or Rs 50 crore)
Plf - 85%
Debt term - 20 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/Fuel/etc - .5 Crore

Financially viable tariff needed - Rs8 per kw. Even Rs 7.5 gives negative IRR for several years.

Compare to Solar.

Project cost ($1.5 Million) +/- 8 Crore / MWhr of capacity. It is actually heading for 7 crore at present.
Plf - 20%
Debt term - 20 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/etc (no fuel) - .05 Crore

Financially viable tariff needed - Rs6 per kw. DSCR of 1.20. Even Rs 5.25 is viable. DSCR of 1.05.



Theo, can you correct the PLF numbers? Just to let you know that Solar may mean different things - you should be using the PLF of a PV system. Further you should qualify what PV you are using (crystalline? Amorphous? etc). That will change your project cost will change your debt term, will change your O/M etc.

Even if you are comparing the renewables from a very narrow ROI calculation, please use right numbers. The above numbers are completely wrong. Either provide backing data for the above number or should we assume that you have fudged the numbers to prove your case?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 05 Jan 2013 16:05 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19
Posts: 3585
Location: छिछला पानी में (In shallow waters)
About AREVA numbers, one should only depend upon numbers from renewables as far is Europe is concerned. The numbers from AREVA should be cut out of discussions not just because of general uncertainty but also because Europeans are going to shut down nuclear energy reactors in future. In such a scenario issues with spares and general logistics are not only areas of concern and safety, that are overlooked for European reactors, but also issues of of spares technology that would be added to the usual cost.

As far as European nuclear reactors are concerned, India should develop hubs for renewable tech where such nuclear reactors from Europe are to be set up. The base load electricity could be generated from indigenous reactors while electricity from renewable would be used well as needed. Which is very relevant in this thread.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 05 Jan 2013 23:40 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
The purpose of the comparison was an apples to apples requirement. If we add a 'renewal' component to PV, we are unable to add a renewal component to Nuclear. Still I will do an IRR for solar PV including 0.065 crore per mw for a total of 0.115 crore O&M.

Project cost ($1.5 Million) +/- 8 Crore / MWhr of capacity. It is actually heading for 7 crore at present.
Plf - 20%
Debt term - 12 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/etc (no fuel) - .115 Crore

Break even is now Rs 6.15.

Please note there is one mistake. In my earlier estimate I had used 12 years debt term for solar vs 20 year for nuclear. 12 year term is a typical bank req. for solar. I have corrected it in this estimate.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 06 Jan 2013 00:03 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
Narayana Rao wrote:
In fact in many states power is main issue and cost is secondary.


I'm not sure about this. Everytime the rates are increased there is a massive hue and cry about the rate increases. Even AMMA was forced into a partial roll back last time. The real problem in TN for a long time was that power rates were scandalously low. Till a year ago for the lowest slab TN was charging Rs0.80 per unit! This when Gujarat was charging Rs3.00 per unit even at the lowest slab. Even now after rationalization the charge is Rs 1.10 revised down to R1.00 for the lowest slab.

TN has some of the cheapest rates in India, never mind that it is simply unable to supply power at that rate. This the entire argument. Are the poor in TN willing to do a 300% increase in their electricity bills for 24x7 power like GJ. So far the evidence is very mixed. I just can't imagine folks agreeing to go from a Rs500/month bill to a Rs 1,200 to Rs 1,500 bill per month.

Even now there is surplus power from the private sector in the central and western India that TANGECO can but at Rs4-Rs5 per unit but will not because the rates are too low. TN's shortage is a direct consequence of the low rates not fully due to any capacity issue.


Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 06 Jan 2013 00:25, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 06 Jan 2013 00:21 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Theo_Fidel wrote:
The purpose of the comparison was an apples to apples requirement. If we add a 'renewal' component to PV, we are unable to add a renewal component to Nuclear. Still I will do an IRR for solar PV including 0.065 crore per mw for a total of 0.115 crore O&M.

Project cost ($1.5 Million) +/- 8 Crore / MWhr of capacity. It is actually heading for 7 crore at present.
Plf - 20%
Debt term - 12 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/etc (no fuel) - .115 Crore

Break even is now Rs 6.15.

Please note there is one mistake. In my earlier estimate I had used 12 years debt term for solar vs 20 year for nuclear. 12 year term is a typical bank req. for solar. I have corrected it in this estimate.


No sir. You are comparing apples to oranges and insisting that Bananas is better.

Your PLF number is wrong. Your Project cost is wrong. Your O/M/etc is also wrong. Further, the "PLF" for installing solar on roof (because you are using typical bank rate) is compared with a PLF of a managed infrastructure., that itself is a red herring. Your PLF in that case is absolutely wrong.

Can you please quote the sources for PLF for "solar" (in your case, you should be quoting the "PLF" for rooftop PV solar)? Till then, all your numbers are suspect and frankly you are putting your own credibility in question.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 06 Jan 2013 00:23 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Theo_Fidel wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:
TN has some of the cheapest rates in India, never mind that it is simply unable to supply power at that rate. This the entire argument. Are the poor in TN willing to do a 300% increase in their electricity bills for 24x7 power like GJ. So far the evidence is a clear no. I just can't imagine folks agreeing to go from a Rs500/month bill to a Rs 1,200 to Rs 1,500 bill per month.


Gujarat also had intermittent supply and cheap rates. Now they have reliable supply and not so cheap rates and they are happy. What gives in the southern TN? book thumping?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 06 Jan 2013 01:03 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
This is kinda disappointing, but with 3 months notice one can't expect better. Hopefully next round is better.

Turns out the major concern was the solvency of the electricity board. Which is a legitimate question.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 901140.cms

Quote:
The southern Indian state received bids for only a little less than 500 megawatts. Power-starved Tamil Nadu is betting big on solar, with Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa drawing up an ambitious plan to add 3,000 megawatts through this route by 2015.

Narasimhan Santhanam, Co-founder & Director of consultancy Energy Alternatives India, said the absence of players such as Tata Solar and Moser BaerBSE -0.42 % from the process was notable.

US major Sun Edison submitted bids for a total of 50 megawatts through four separate bids while Welspun and Lanco bid for 30 megawatts and 25 megawatts, respectively.

The remaining nearly 400 megawatts bid was distributed across small projects totalling nearly 100, Madhavan Nampoothiri, founder and director, of RESolve Energy Consultants who attended the bid result meeting on Friday. He said the data is subject to confirmation by the State electricity utility Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation. As many as 38 companies have bid for 1 megawatt projects. This, despite the tender not specifying an upper limit.


Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 06 Jan 2013 04:34, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 06 Jan 2013 01:22 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Theo_Fidel wrote:
This is kinda disappointing, but with 3 months notice one can't expect better. Hopefully next round is better.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 901140.cms


It is reality. Take a look back at your PLF. It is all wrong. For people of means like you, roof top PV solar can take the edge out of peak load. It is *not* a panacea for electricity woes of TN or for that matter India. It is more like filling up the edges, not the main course. Actually bringing more nuclear powerstations online will help PV alternative.

The only "renewable" is nuclear for mass base load, via the thorium fuel cycle. And it is environment friendly. Further, we should look at the overall energy basket, that is including oil and replacing oil. Hybrids and electric charged vehicles should be the thrust in India., will reduce both local air and noise pollution and feel free up from import from the gelf oil.

Anybody without a misplaced trust in the bookwallas would see that through.

PS: Added later, and 3 months notice is *not short* - so stop blaming others.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 07 Jan 2013 08:36 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
Second round of bidding is now planned. TANGEDCO's financial situation continues to drag.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ind ... ef=wl_home

Quote:
he response is by no means discouraging,” said a senior official in the Electricity Department referring to the bids for 500 MW of solar power generation capacity submitted against a total of 1,000 MW anticipated by the Tamil Nadu Government.

In the prevailing scenario, 500 MW of concrete investment proposal in solar power is significant and unmatched by any other State, pointed out the official.

The Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation had called for bids to set up decentralised solar power generation projects across the State and committed to enter into a 20-year power purchase agreement with the generators based on the lowest bidder.

On the last day of the bid, on Friday, over 90 potential investors submitted their bids for a cumulative 500 MW of solar power generation capacity. Among the investors were multinational players and infrastructure companies with plans to set up 10-50 MW of solar generation and individual entrepreneurs planning to set up 1–5 MW of solar power generation.

The official said once the tariff is decided there is the option for a second round of bidding, and there is keen interest among investors to set up captive facilities and exploit the Renewable Energy Certificate option. The State had managed to garner interest on such a scale through a process initiated just four weeks back, he said.


Quote:
The bids represent a cumulative investment of over Rs 5,000 crore with Rs 3,000-3,500 crore debt from financial institutions.

The PPA has to provide for adequate payment assurance and protection from policy or political changes, Gopalan said.

Other major bidders who did not want to be named, said concerns over the PPA was possibly the only reason for the State not drawing bids for the targeted 1,000 MW.

The financial condition of the cash-strapped Tangedco is a major worry. The utility has to ensure there is adequate payment ‘security and comfort’ in the agreement.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 07 Jan 2013 22:28 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
^^ Let us see how much actually fructify and add power to the grid! The blame is already shifted to TANGEDCO even before a single MW has been produced!! The financial condition of the Tangedco is called into question but not of the individual and the "multinational players and infrastructure companies".

How much time do you want to bet for the first 50 MW to be added as per the above? How much to 500 MW? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years?

PS: Added later, can you tell us the source for the PLF=20 for PV projects? Where did you pull that number from? Till then whatever you say or do about PV is suspect.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 09 Jan 2013 08:44 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
^^^

Theo - you have not corrected your PLF numbers. Either cite sources or please admit that you have cooked up those numbers.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 17 Jan 2013 10:09 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
^^^ Theo, one week has passed and you have not cited your sources for the PLF. Shall we assume that you have cooked up the PLF numbers to paint a wrong but rosy picture?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 17 Jan 2013 23:56 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30
Posts: 7228
^^Out of curiosity

What do you mean by PLF here? Is it same as CUF. What is the PLF foe Coal Power plant/ What is CUF for them?
What is efficiency for SPV?
I mean unless we are clear that both of you mean same thing how further discussion can be taken, reminders notwithstanding?

Again I see base load and peak load concept. Could you clarify?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 18 Jan 2013 08:31 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
chaanakya wrote:
^^Out of curiosity .... What do you mean by PLF here? ....


Chaanakya, you can check out the terminologies here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor.

My point is simple, if theo is quoting a number to draw a conclusion, I am asking for citation for that number. Anybody can paint a rosy picture on cooked up numbers and numbers need citation.

In the quote below, theo quoted two numbers to draw a conclusion. Where is the citation for those numbers?

Theo_Fidel wrote:

AFAIK no one refuted my IRR numbers esp. for new nuclear.
One senses a lot of institutional anger at the economic challenge of Solar but it is not going away.

Run this IRR calculation again. New Nuclear.

Project cost ($6.5 Million) +/- 35 Crore / MWhr of capacity. (Flamenville is now heading for $9 million, or Rs 50 crore)
Plf - 85%
Debt term - 20 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/Fuel/etc - .5 Crore

Financially viable tariff needed - Rs8 per kw. Even Rs 7.5 gives negative IRR for several years.

Compare to Solar.

Project cost ($1.5 Million) +/- 8 Crore / MWhr of capacity. It is actually heading for 7 crore at present.
Plf - 20%
Debt term - 20 years. 70% debt/ 30% equity
Debt rate - 10% (real present rate is 12%)
O/M/etc (no fuel) - .05 Crore

Financially viable tariff needed - Rs6 per kw. DSCR of 1.20. Even Rs 5.25 is viable. DSCR of 1.05.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 20 Jan 2013 10:44 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
While we wait for theo to correct his artificially rosy numbers or cite references to support his numbers, something from PBS

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june13/india_01-17.html

Quote:
Transcript


RAY SUAREZ: Our next story comes from India, where entrepreneurs are turning crippling power grid problems into opportunity.

Special correspondent Fred de Sam Lazaro filed this report for our "Agents for Change" series.




IN-DEPTH COVERAGE

Social Entrepreneurship


ARTICLE TOOLS

Print

Email



Share







RAJDEEP SARDESAI, journalist: There's been another blackout. It's the second in as many days, leaving almost half of India today without power.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Last year, when India suffered a massive power blackout, the worst in its history, television anchorman Rajdeep Sardesai happened to be lunching with the top government official in charge of power as the news came in.

RAJDEEP SARDESAI: For the next hour, we didn't stop the lunch. We went ahead with the lunch. The power minister was lunching with a journalist, rather than being perhaps there in his office directing operations. That in itself epitomized for me that it wasn't being treated as some kind of a national emergency, but another day in the office.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Despite billions of dollars in new infrastructure, power interruptions are chronic in India. Consumers large and small rely on backup systems, at huge cost to both the environment and economy, says energy expert Kirit Parikh. He traces the problem to policies that never really took into account the cost of power and gave it away to some consumers.

KIRIT PARIKH, energy expert: We started out with saying that farmers should get cheap and free electricity. This was 30 years ago, when we wanted farmers to really adopt more modern technologies. It was considered a good way to promote green revolution.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Power was distributed cheaply or free to farmers and other groups whose votes politicians courted. Little effort was made to meter it. That prompted many people to hook themselves up illegally. Parikh says a third of all power is stolen off the grid.

KIRIT PARIKH: Thirty percent of the generated electricity is not charged to anyone.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: With little new money coming in, public utilities haven't been able to expand capacity or buy enough fuel, like coal or natural gas, both in short supply anyway. Power must be rationed, but some regions overdraw their allotment. That can cause the system to shut down, or, as it did last year, collapse.

But power failures are just the tip of the iceberg, the urban half of a much larger problem. The grid failure may have knocked out power out to a vast area -- 600 million people live in it. But to anywhere from a third to a half of them, it really didn't matter, because they have never been hooked up to the electric grid.

Vast swathes of rural India remain off the grid or get minimal, unpredictable service from it.

RATNESH YADAV, Husk Power: In the evening, nothing is visible. It's all dark. Life ceases to exist after sunset.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Ratnesh Yadav has tried to tackle at least this part of the problem. He and a partner founded a company called Husk Power. Their idea? Village-based micro-grids.

At this one in the village of Patelli (ph) in the northeastern Bihar state, tractors arrive with rice husks, the byproduct of milling this region's staple crop. It is poured into a hopper, about 100 pounds per hour, and gassified to run a simple turbine. Each evening, 700 customers have access to power for five hours.

Baguam Singh is one. He runs a tiny snack shop that he says he can keep open later.

MAN (through translator): We used to work with a gas light. This is much cheaper. We used to stay open until 9:00 in the evening. Now we stay open until 10:00 or 10:30, so it's a benefit.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The newly electrified homes stand out in the dark with children clustered around the single lightbulb doing homework. Just one low-power turbine is enough to make the enterprise viable, Yadav says.

RATNESH YADAV: Thirty-two kilowatt is a small amount of energy, but for places like these, it is huge. It can power -- on an average, it powers 450 households, because their primary need right now is light and cell phone recharging.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In five years, Husk Power has installed 75 of these simple plants. Their networks cover an area no bigger than a couple of square miles, with wires strung on poles made from bamboo, a renewable resource like the rice husk fuel.

RATNESH YADAV: The good thing about this rice husk is, it has no alternate uses. It doesn't burn easily, so you can't use it for cooking. You cannot feed it to cattle because it has high silica in it. So it is a waste. It has no value for anybody else. And that is why -- and it is in plenty.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Yadav was speaking on this day to a group of foreign, so-called impact investors, who put their dollars into socially conscious enterprises.

The business model, he said, relies on simple, cheap and green technology and local control. Each plant is franchised to local entrepreneurs. In this village, it's Shambhu Singh.

RATNESH YADAV: Ownership and operation is his responsibility. And we take care of maintenance and after-sales service.

MAN: And how is electricity distributed?

RATNESH YADAV: We use double-jacketed wires and we lay down our own distribution network and connect customers' houses from that.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Jacketed or insulated wires prevent both accidental electrocution and power theft. Local franchisee Singh, whose family was in the textile business, said he's had no problem signing people up.

MAN (through translator): In the first month, I got 25.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In just five months, Singh told the group, that number has grown to 700. He collects payment in advance each month, not hard, he says because service is reliable and costs the equivalent of just 50 cents, less than the far dimmer and dirtier kerosene lanterns or candles.

MAN: How long does it take to recover the investment that you did in this plant?

MAN (through translator): Two, two-and-a-half years.

RATNESH YADAV: Everybody is making profit. Everybody's benefiting. It's not a charity or donation.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The visitors seem to agree and want in. Eric Berkowitz is with a Singapore-based fund that has invested $2.5 million. He likes Husk Power's growth prospects.

ERIC BERKOWITZ, investor: As people increase income, which hopefully they will, that will create new livelihood opportunities, they will have opportunities to incrementally increase electricity that they will take from these kind of solutions, and maybe add maybe two lights, three lights, a radio, a TV, a refrigerator.

It's not the only solution. There's other solutions that involve solar technologies. And Husk Power is actually looking at those kind of solutions as well.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Renewable fuel plants also qualify for subsidies from India's government and possibly credits in a global carbon trade. Power expert Parikh appreciates what micro-plants can provide, but he doesn't see them as a long-term solution.

KIRIT PARIKH: Most people aspire to have electricity when they flip the system button and get the power as and when they want it. So this is the kind of enterprises that do work, but they are all small-scale examples.

When you really add up, how many megawatts can you really provide this way? I'm sure it's a wonderful idea. They're getting electricity until the time the grid comes and reaches them.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: He acknowledges that time may be a ways off before 24/7 grid power reaches all of India, or even urban areas that suffered most from the massive blackout.

As the debate rages on in Delhi over the right mix of coal, nuclear and green energy, Husk Power's goal is to install almost 2,000 new micro-grids in the rural areas by 2015.

JEFFREY BROWN: Fred's reporting is a partnership with the Under-Told Stories Project at Saint Mary's University in Minnesota.





Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2013 02:18 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Posts: 25688
Location: NowHere
I am still confused at the high cost of personal solar power systems in desh. GoI should subsidize them with zero tax, including the raw materials for it, up to 5KVA, and allow production and operations to feed into the larger electricity grid. So, even a 50% cost subsidy is beneficial to all, and a revenue to gov. high end batteries will - especially the lithium polymer ones might arrive soon, hopefully safe.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2013 08:50 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Saik-ji,

Why go all over the place trying to subsidize solar when a real Indian solution used by the Hindus for several milleanias is at hand.

Check out Indian Beech or Pongiama Pinnata. It grows into a beautiful tree with nice blossoming flowers and lives for generally 80 years. At the end of 80 years, you can harvest the wood to make good enough furniture or nice wood floors. In its life time, it grows nuts which when crushed gives you Honge or Karanjia oil. The karanjia oil is used in soap etc. but that is not the point.

The point is, every home in India urban/semi-urban/rural should be mandated to have atleast one pongiama tree per bigha equivalent. The bio-diesel generated from let us say 100 million homes as such will be 300 million Kg of oil per year (you can do reverse calculation from here http://www.cigrjournal.org/index.php/Ej ... /2159/1634 - 300 trees per hectare, 100 kg of oil per hectare => 100 million trees = 3 million hectare equivalent tree => 300 million kg of oil per year)., whichi is equivalent to 2.5 million barrels of oil per year. Which is 10 days oil import per 2008 consumption.

Simple - all one has to do is popularize seeds and ask the private industry to take over. An no need to send people to gelf.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2013 09:56 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Posts: 25688
Location: NowHere
no solo option is sustainable considering our vast sdre-empire-hood. so, it is important that we seek all energy sources and into a next generation of grid management.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2013 11:00 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
You know the problem with PV? It takes massive amount of subsidy to make it viable and that subsidy can be better used for other purposes. Subsidy for the PV is actually a subsidy for the rich. And even after that, installation is an upfront cost beyond most middle class.

Ask theo or Dileep Saar how much it cost to install the PV system, how much electricity it is saving and how much tax rebate they got and use that to see if it is a viable model or not. You will find 3KW or 5KW systems from here: http://www.indiasolarsolutions.net/solar-pv-system.html, and a reasonable 3 KW system will cost you some 5Lakh rupees. After subsidies.

Saik-ji., You have a it-vity job and actually a cushy paying job, now will you be spending 10,000 USD on installing a 5KW system in US? Let us say you are getting 30% rebate, you will get 3000 USD and you will be happy. What happens if somebody installs a 20 KW System? That will produce enough electricity for an average american usage (yes, direction, insolation, inverter efficiency etc matters, assume for the moment optimum system with average 5 hour of insolation). What is the subsidy on it? 12,000 USD - enough to pay your entire installation and more. Who does the subsidy benefit here? The person who could put up 40k USD upfront before subsidy. It may be a trivial amount for you - for me it is quite a substantal chi-chi amount. I am sure there are many in US as well as many many more in desh that may want that amount to buy their dream flat even if it is 2BHK in a 2-tier city.

So point is, PV subsidy is robbing poor to pay for the rich and in an efficient manner.

Instead, spend it on other alternatives - locally sourced, locally engineered, locally maintained and contributing to the local economy.

And one more suggestion, unwarranted, take it FWIW, Saik-ji - read through the PDF mentioned earlier. There are other tangible benefits which were not brought up, and yes, do read first before you post.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2013 19:38 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Posts: 25688
Location: NowHere
disha, I am 100% full support on your thoughts. no defying there nor denying your thoughts. I wanted to tell you, I did not read it complete.. but I want you know, that my thoughts are little generic and holistic in the sense, looking into the future.

Now, regarding liabilities and assets, the RoI happens by way of grid feedback. When you subsidize say, a solar setup, not all energy source is efficiently used. The reason, (ref:GDF/handyman thread), we were discussing about a life-cycle approach - where upto 40% is used for emergency backup, and the remaining is either used by the homes on a periodic switching cycle.

But, this can involve higher cost.. so, a better solution would be have a highly subsidized solar system, and that feeds into a community grid, where we could plan better. May be I am evil to take away the rights of the gov and empower community grid setup.

IMHO, we have to have least dependence to federated socialistic setups and at the same time grid oriented.. hence a small grid is better. may be in the future, we could link many grids.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2013 11:08 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
Meanwhile, AP kicks off its bids for 1000 MW.

Also saw a comment in Thanthi that TN may rebid its auction with payment guarantees this time.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new ... 290648.ece

Quote:
Inviting bids for setting up solar photovoltaic plants, the Andhra Pradesh Government expects the developers to set up plants within 12 months of signing up of power purchase agreements with distribution companies.

The Transmission Corporation of Andhra Pradesh Limited (AP Transco), which has been mandated by the State Government to oversee the process of selection of developers for solar power projects, has come out with detailed process including timeline for setting up about 1,000 mw capacity under the State solar policy announced in November 2012.

The last date for submission of bids is February 7, 2013. Thereafter, financial and technical bids finalised and Letter of Intent awarded to the developers.

The successful bidders will have time to sign up for power purchase agreement with Discoms within 30 days. Thereafter, they get 210 days to achieve financial closure.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 23 Jan 2013 09:41 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
^ Dream on. Soon you will blame them for not doing advertising properly and closing the bids in only 21 days (in TN it was 3 months and you complained). While you ruminate on why the above bid failed., can you provide citation to your numbers?

Also in the meantime, please go through this: http://giftgujarat.in/. This has more chances to reality than your AP Solar project!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 24 Jan 2013 21:14 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Posts: 25688
Location: NowHere
hello mr. thanthi man! when did the chindu join/bought over by thanthi group? i thought it was only for the ndtv hindu joint venture. i think, you may be mixing names when you link hindu news articles.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 24 Jan 2013 22:28 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
Saik,

Don't have a link to the Thanthi article sorry. It was at my uncles house.
--------------------

Meanwhile....

You might get your wish for roof top project assistance. I sure hope so. My dad has a 800 kw panel system on his roof. I need to take some pictures of it.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 164490.cms

Quote:
Tamil Nadu would generate around 40 percent of the solar energy produced in the country by 2015, said Sudeep Jain, chairman and director of the Tamil Nadu Energy Development Agency ( TEDA).

He said that solar power generation was set to surge as state was all set to complete its roof top solar revolution by 2015 as part of its solar energy policy and programme.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 25 Jan 2013 03:25 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Posts: 25688
Location: NowHere
Good to know.. TN always leads in terms of tech industries.. and I hope they retain that. They have to seriously look at renewable source of energy for:

- 100s of barc desalination plants
- better road setup - 4+4 lanes all roads widening along with the oil tree (disha's pongamia tree)
- improve forest cover (energy resource plants)
- increase solar plants
- increase wind energy - largest one in India is still out in TN
- improve on the river/ocean wave turbines
- enhance th based reactor outputs, have more as the first one went success (not renewable though)
- not sure on geothermal resource
- air quality improvement (focus on quality)
- reduced pollution and go on Euro 4 compliance
- advanced SDRE engineering setup for efficient use of renewable energy resource.. where most of them are not 24x7 - supporting technologies.

All in one grid!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 26 Jan 2013 05:45 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
Meanwhile...
New bids for solar in TN. Note the comment on the Rs6.5 per unit power.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new ... 345072.ece

Quote:
The price bids of the current tender will be opened on January 30, he said.

Tangedco recently came out with a tender for the purchase of power generated from solar power plants of total capacity of 1,000 MW. Bids were opened on January 4, and the total bids had amounted to less than 500 MW of capacity.

Now after the price bids are opened, negotiations will take place. Tangedco will first negotiate a price with the bidder who has quoted the least price (L-1), and then ask other bidders to match that price.

After the entire process is over, there will be another tender for the rest of the proposed capacity, the official said. For instance, if the process results in the creation of only 300 MW, the new bid could be for 700 MW, he said.

Enquiries by Business Line show that several bidders have quoted prices between Rs 7 and Rs 8. They quoted a price higher than what they can afford to sell, knowing they could always agree for a lower price at the negotiations.

One developer, who did not want to be named, said that his calculations showed that with the ‘accelerated depreciation’ benefit, he could profitably sell solar power at Rs 6.50 a unit.

------------------------------------

Also here's a breakdown of projects by district. Majority appears to be in S.TN.
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 31 Jan 2013 03:00 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30
Posts: 2910
New benchmark low for solar tariff in TN.

Solar power companies participating in the bid floated by Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (Tangedco) to enter into long term solar power supply with it were caught by surprise by a lower than expected bid.

In the price bids opened today, the lowest power tariff was quoted at Rs 5.97 a unit. Over 90 bidders had participated in the bids floated by the power utility.The technical bids were opened early this month with bidders submitting their quotes for a total of about 500 MW of solar power generating capacity.Tangedco had hoped to receive bids for over 1,000 MW.

Officials said the bids will be placed before the Board level tender committee which will decide on the tariff based after examining the viability and start negotiations with other bidders who will be expected to match the tariff.

According to industry sources, the low bid sets a new benchmark for solar power tariff. For instance, the preferential tariff under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission is now at about Rs 7.49 a unit. The bid in Tamil Nadu is even more competitive.

Most of the bidders had appeared to have pegged their bids around the Solar Mission rates, industry representatives said.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 02 Feb 2013 05:56 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30
Posts: 2910
Hyderabad firm offers solar plants at Rs 6 cr a MW.

At a time when solar power plants cost Rs 8-9 crore a megawatt, a Hyderabad-based solar module manufacturer has come forward to offer to supply solar equipment at Rs 6 crore a MW.

“We can compete against anybody, including the Chinese,” says Narender Surana, Managing Director of Surana Ventures.

“If the land is yours,” he said, “whatever is to be put into it will be supplied by us at Rs 6 crore per MW.”

For sites up to about 600 km from Hyderabad, Surana Ventures will not even bill the customer for transportation, he said.

Surana said the company bought a line from the German company, Schott Solar, which closed down its operations in the wake of the global slowdown in the solar industry.

Today, Surana Ventures has a capacity of 140 MW — half of which came from Schott Solar.

He said that while the company had not yet picked up any order from large, MW-scale plant, “we are shipping about 300 modules each day.”

Solar projects
Now waiting for orders, Surana Ventures is putting up its own solar plants, at Sadashivpet and Narsingi, both near Hyderabad, — 5 MW each.

The company will keep ramping up capacity and expects to reach 125 MW in two years. Surana said the company is open to selling solar power at Rs 7.50 per kWhr.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2013 01:19 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Vipul wrote:


Sounds like prawn farming projects to me. At such rate, soon we will hear 1 cr a MW projects announced., good to fleece the investors.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2013 01:24 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Posts: 2853
Location: gaganaviharin
Quote:
Officials said the bids will be placed before the Board level tender committee which will decide on the tariff based after examining the viability and start negotiations with other bidders who will be expected to match the tariff.


Here is the modus operandi., get your foot in the door with the bids and then see how you can make the project "viable" for everybody :ROFL:

Let us revisit this in 2015 and see how much PV capacity has actually been added.

In the meantime, theo if you are not going to cite your numbers., then please be prepared to be called at best delusional and at worst a liar.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 02 Mar 2013 04:56 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10
Posts: 3137
Solar will not be able to provide bulk load power. Only nuclear and coal will be able to do that.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 14 Aug 2013 21:45 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30
Posts: 2910
Govt plans to roll out Rs 43,000-crore ‘green energy corridor’ project.

To facilitate flow of renewable energy into the national grid, the Government plans to roll out a Rs 43,000-crore ‘green energy corridor’ project. The project will be implemented with the assistance of Germany which has promised to provide developmental and technical assistance of € one billion as soft credit," Secretary, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Ratan P. Watal, said.

Speaking at the "National Consultation of Stakeholders regarding Development of Offshore Wind Energy in India" here on Wednesday that the Government is committed to provide a conducive environment for harnessing offshore wind energy in the country. Laying down figures he stated that India’s onshore wind energy deployment has crossed 19,600 MW attracting $16.5 billion of investment in 2012 and it is estimated that by 2030 installed capacity could reach 191 GW.

He further said that National Offshore Wind Energy Authority under the aegis of MNRE will be constituted shortly. The authority will act as the nodal agency for Offshore Wind Projects in the country.

The authority will carry out resource assessment and surveys in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and simultaneously enter into contract with project developers for development of offshore wind energy project in the territorial water (12 nm). It will be the single window agency and will coordinate with concerned Ministries/Departments for necessary clearances.

However, the authority will only act as a facilitator for getting clearance and application for clearance will be dealt in entirety by the concerned Ministry/Department, Watal said.

A study by Scottish Development International done in January 2012 has indicated potential to establish around one GW capacity wind farm each along the coastline of Rameshwaram and Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu. India is estimated to have 350 GW of offshore wind energy capacity.

The Ministries/Departments which will be involved in the process of granting clearances for Offshore Wind Farm Projects are Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Civil Aviation, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Coast Guard etc.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 27 Aug 2013 08:03 
Offline
BRFite

Joined: 08 May 2012 06:43
Posts: 770
^^^

Commendable initiative, along with a long coastline for the mainland we do have the A&N island chain as well, discounting tsunamis the eastern side of the island chain is available

Below is German offshore park 'BARD Offshore 1' of 400MW capacity of 80*5MW units, we need a KMGT derived turbine with a 12MW capacity per unit by the time we go online

http://www.dnaindia.com/bigpicture/1880302/photo-windmills-of-the-wind-farm-bard-offshore-1-in-germany

Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: 22 Sep 2014 19:15 
Offline
BRF Oldie

Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Posts: 6163
Location: Still in transit....
An important milestone. There can be no future for our civilization without this technology or something like it succeeding.

http://www.business-standard.com/conten ... 412_1.html

Quote:
POET-DSM Advanced Biofuels, a joint venture of Royal DSM and POET Llc, began commercial production at its first cellulosic ethanol plant in Emmetsburg, Iowa, thus proving its revolutionary technology that converts agricultural residue into renewable fuel.

The plant, named ‘Project Liberty’, converts baled corn cobs, leaves, husk and stalk into renewable fuel. The plant has now officially started up, processing its first batch of biomass into cellulosic ethanol and is moving forward toward continuous operation. At full capacity, it will convert 770 tons of biomass per day to produce ethanol at a rate of 20 million gallons per year, later ramping up to 25 million gallons per year.

Feike Sijbesma, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Managing Board of Royal DSM, said: "This is an historical day in the development of plant-residue-based cellulosic ethanol as a viable, commercially attractive alternative to gasoline as we are moving from the fossil age to the (bio-) renewable age. For DSM this is a strategic investment, applying our proprietary technology to convert agricultural residue on a commercial scale, allowing it to be replicated at other facilities globally as we are ramping up our cellulosic ethanol licensing business."

"Some have called cellulosic ethanol a ‘fantasy fuel’, but today it becomes a reality. With access now to new sources for energy, Project Liberty can be the first step in transforming our economy, our environment and our national security," said Jeff Broin, POET founder and Executive Chairman.

This first commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol facility marks a huge step forward in the wider adoption of biofuels, both in North America and elsewhere. It is also a victory for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which prompted increased investment into advanced biofuels that accelerated development of this new technology. The RFS is a critical tool in moving the US beyond 10 percent ethanol use to allow this new technology to expand to other parts of the country.

Meanwhile, in other parts of the world the development of cellulosic ethanol is expected to be boosted as POET-DSM's Liberty process and technology to effectively convert agricultural residue using a proprietary cocktail of enzymes and yeast becomes available via licensing.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 277 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

All times are UTC + 5:30 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Abhijit and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group