Indian Railways Thread

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 May 2015 13:04

More external debt now. Hope IR will earn and repay the money as Sri Prabhu wish to do and there is no Mamata and Lalu type activities in the next decade or so.

raj-senthil · Post by **raj-senthil** » 12 May 2015 23:38

Railway schedules now on Google Maps

Commuters will now be able to access Indian Railways schedule on their mobiles as well as desktops using Google Maps. Besides, information on 12,000 trains, the Maps will now offer updated details for bus and metro routes in nine cities, including New Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and Pune.

Google Transit, the feature in Google Maps that helps plan travel using public transport, will work on Android or iOS based devices as well as on desktops. Users can choose preferred mode of transport from bus, metro or train and also the time they will like to depart or arrive by. Users will need to type the destination into updated Google Maps, click on 'Get Directions' button and then select 'Public Transit' icon that will now include trains apart from bus, car and walking options.

“We hope that the addition of the Indian Railways schedules pan India and updated information for eight cities to Google Transit in India will make it a little easier to plan your next trip,” said Suren Ruhela, Director, Program Management, Google Maps.

Google Maps offers public transportation schedules for more than one million transit stops globally in 2,800 cities including New York, London, Tokyo and Sydney.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 15 May 2015 19:51

X-post from China thread

Quote:
But the Indian side is looking for a deeper collaboration in infrastructure development especially railways. The feasibility study on the Delhi-Chennai high-speed has commenced, but a big ticket announcement on possible Chinese participation on this project is still far away.

Giving the Delhi-Chennai corridor to the Chinese is a huge cop-out on India's part symbolically. It is almost accepting Chinese superiority in infrastructure building when we should be more like equals considering our history. A better option to dangle at the Chinese would be to offer them the possibility of a less symbolic corridor like the earlier proposed but now defunct (?) Kerala HSRL. Since they have the money to invest let them put it there. You kill two birds with one stone a local one and still keep the Chinese engaged with further carrots if they continue to behave at the border with a settlement more favorable to us.

What are the feasibility status on various HSRs and if PRC is keen to invest need to explore the ones which have difficulty seeking funds elsewhere.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 15 May 2015 21:33

Personally, I would like to see the Delhi-Chennai project as proposed to be implemented by the Chinese to not fructify. It is too valuable a project to give to the Chinese, with their still new HSR tech. Plus, they only use such proposals from us to shower Pakistan with $46B in investments - why do we even do this? Finally, Chinese tech may not really sell, I was talking to a few relatives about this, and they said they will not set foot on such a train made in China

In fact, I think instead of focussing on a few showcase HSR projects, the Modi govt should focus on improving IR's average speeds and relieve congestion. We cannot have a situation where a few people whiz along at 250kmph, while the rest of the country trundles along slower than what their ancestors did 50 years ago, when IR tracks were less congested.

This is not to say India should not build HSR, but we should think far ahead in the future and look build a network of HSR, not isolated lines built by different providers to different specs. We can start doing some feasibility studies and start acquiring some land, but start building after 10 years when the economy is in a better shape and can support it.

I will post a detailed write up on this over the weekend.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 May 2015 03:07

arshyam wrote:Personally, I would like to see the Delhi-Chennai project as proposed to be implemented by the Chinese to not fructify. It is too valuable a project to give to the Chinese, with their still new HSR tech. Plus, they only use such proposals from us to shower Pakistan with $46B in investments - why do we even do this? Finally, Chinese tech may not really sell, I was talking to a few relatives about this, and they said they will not set foot on such a train made in China

In fact, I think instead of focussing on a few showcase HSR projects, the Modi govt should focus on improving IR's average speeds and relieve congestion. We cannot have a situation where a few people whiz along at 250kmph, while the rest of the country trundles along slower than what their ancestors did 50 years ago, when IR tracks were less congested.

This is not to say India should not build HSR, but we should think far ahead in the future and look build a network of HSR, not isolated lines built by different providers to different specs. We can start doing some feasibility studies and start acquiring some land, but start building after 10 years when the economy is in a better shape and can support it.

I will post a detailed write up on this over the weekend.

One more point is that I think Delhi to Chennai is too long a distance to be covered by HSR. Beyond a certain distance, flight travel is better than HSR. I think this line could be cut to Hyderabad-Chennai, which will be more economical. Other similar distances such as Bangalore-Chennai, Bangalore-Hyderabad, Mumbai-Pune etc can be considered, while increasing the average speed of express trains using EMU sets, better signalling etc.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 16 May 2015 09:02

I am not sure that Chennai Delhi is too long a distance to be covered by HSR. Also we needn't think of HSR in terms of average speed of 300 to 325 kmph. An average speed of 200 to 225 kmph should suffice. A rule of thumb is to regard a 10 hour journey as an overnight travel. At an average speed of 200 you could do it in 10 hours given that the distance between Chennai and Delhi is about 2000 kms. That HSR corridor can be used to link up Bangalore and Hyderabad where trains from these two points can join into the HSR line at strategic points increasing the throughput in the system.
There isn't much scope for reduction in airfares as public finances depend too much on taxation of petroleum products. So ATF prices suffer from structural rigidities in the system. The other major components of costs are aircrafts and flying crew. These costs too are globalised. Add to this the chronic weakness of the rupee against the US dollar, loan servicing costs go up, too. I reckon current airfares at Rs 15 to 18,000 for a round trip (chennai-delhi) is on the higher side for a large majority of Indians given the income levels. Granted that HSR fares won't be available at current rail tariff. Even so, would be considerably cheaper than air travel.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 May 2015 09:17

That's my point actually. 200 kmph is semi high speed. We could achieve this speed with up-gradations to existing rolling stocks, tracks and signalling. With so many big cities in the route, I doubt if Delhi to Chennai travel can be completed in 10 hours. Whereas high speed rail, which will have an average speed of atleast 300 kmph will require a dedicated line (mostly elevated tracks) and require a lot investment for Delhi-Chennai line. This money is better spent on overall improvement of railways than allocating to just one project.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 16 May 2015 11:18

On a related note, air travel becomes viable only for much longer distances (3,000 kms and beyond perhaps?) or shorter distances separated by vast stretches of sea.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 May 2015 11:36

it is possible to run the same HSR trainset in a different voltage mode over semi-hsr sections as we see here for a tgv at the start and end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOt4o9BoR-8

also this swedish train seems to be doing 150-200 without even any fencing on the sides (a disaster in india for sure with kamandus trying to sneak lorries, tractors and cows across to save some 10 seconds)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Rq9b_bn6Bc

we need to raise all express and mail trains to this swedish std using as much of incremental changes on existing infra as possible before splurging the big bucks on HSR maybe from 2025 onward...3-lining the main routes is a no brainer.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 May 2015 20:58

Japan is conducting feasibility study on the Mumbai-Ahmadabad line and China is conducting on Delhi-Chennai line. Why have two different countries for the HSR projects? Wouldn't it be better if we collaborate with one country?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 16 May 2015 21:42

HSR is extremely capital intensive. So it is better to have different countries involved in different routes. But I still maintain that Modi jumped on this issue without much thinking. He should have concentrated on upgrading the existing system to international levels. HSR should have been left to 2025 and beyond. Besides given the proliferation of air travel I suspect it will be a cheaper option. 70000 crores for just Mum-Ahmd. That is crazy. The money could have been put to better use in developing other infra.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 16 May 2015 21:53

Japan like China want control of how fixed assets like train sets are sourced. But the cost is not just that. The civil works will be local in both cases which should be a significant part of the costs. Japan has less money to invest in such things for India. JICA did not even fully fund the Kochi metro despite early promises that Sreedharan made that JICA will be the main source for loans. China has a positive trade balance with India, and some of that should be loaned back at least in favorable rates for infra building activities like HSR.

I would start with smaller segments to learn the process by us, and then the quadrilateral or north-south and east-west HSR be built by Indian money and hardware beginning sometime 2030 and beyond.

Can't China put the money for civil works and some imported hardware (train sets, signal works etc) say for a KL HSR (500km) and be free to operate it for 30 yrs in a JV setup and then transfer it all to the Indian entity. Pure investment returns for them in the short term while it solves our infrastructure shortages. This was earlier estimated to cost 1 lakh crores.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 16 May 2015 22:06

Air travel really cannot substitute comfortable train travel for short distances. Places like KL where land acquisition will always remain a problem, there has to be alternates to 6 or 8 lane highways which can be easily built in rest of the country where population density is much less. Tourists too would prefer land travel by train over air to cover intermediate stops. Far more convenient and richer in the visual experience. But then a state like KL is not financially capable to do it on its own. So some form of equity investment should be the vehicle and operated independently. If the Chinese see something for them in this, then as an experiment it should be done. Will learn the outcome in a decade or less how it all pans out.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 16 May 2015 23:07

We already have land and prime locations for railway stations in our cities. Building new tracks and coaches should be easier than building entirely new 6 lane highways with all the land acquisition hurdles. We need both, given our population. But if we're going to interconnect these HSR islands in the future, they'll need to be interoperable. Otherwise its just stupid.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 17 May 2015 00:12

nandakumar wrote:I am not sure that Chennai Delhi is too long a distance to be covered by HSR. Also we needn't think of HSR in terms of average speed of 300 to 325 kmph. An average speed of 200 to 225 kmph should suffice. A rule of thumb is to regard a 10 hour journey as an overnight travel. At an average speed of 200 you could do it in 10 hours given that the distance between Chennai and Delhi is about 2000 kms. That HSR corridor can be used to link up Bangalore and Hyderabad where trains from these two points can join into the HSR line at strategic points increasing the throughput in the system.

Very nice points. 7.5 (@ 300 KPH) to 11 (@ 200 KPH) hours makes it an overnight trip when done non-stop. This is ideal to improve business travel between Chennai and Delhi. HSR is mainly for business travel. It is a great option to finish a work day in Chennai, show up well-rested in Delhi the next day, and return to Chennai in time to start working the following day. There is great opportunity to combine this with lounges with showers at the HSR stations. If done right, this will steal a huge proportion of business travel from the airlines. The economic benefits ranging from increased business exchanges to reduction in congestion at airports are worth the investment. The ROI should be measured on the overall impact on the economy. By definition, HSR is not suitable for milk runs with 25 stops in between. There will hardly be any time gain worth the investment.

As you point out, links with Bangalore, Vijayawada, Tirupati, Hyderabad, Indore, etc., will multiply the benefits. The line utilization will also be increased via Nagpur-Delhi, Agra-Delhi, Jhansi-Delhi, etc. HSRs.

Net-net this one investment by whomever can have a huge positive impact on the economy.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 17 May 2015 00:23

True! When I was on a biz trip in Japan I did precisely what you mention using trains. I was stumped at how fast a distance of 1000km was covered. It took 4 times longer in India.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 01:12

Delhi-Chennai non-stop is not the best option. Why not route it as Chennai-B'lur-Hydbad-Bhopal-Delhi. Any HSR line will need limited intermediate stops to see full utilization in the initial stages at least.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 17 May 2015 01:43

Bade wrote:Delhi-Chennai non-stop is not the best option. Why not route it as Chennai-B'lur-Hydbad-Bhopal-Delhi. Any HSR line will need limited intermediate stops to see full utilization in the initial stages at least.

Chennai-BLR-Hyderabad is a diversion too far out. Hence the prospect that BLR-Chennai is its own line. Other than that, the route shouldn't be too far from the current shortest one.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 May 2015 01:56

You would run smaller trainsets for lower passenger volumes. Why think in terms of the old IR inefficiency stop every 2 minutes model. Down to 2 coach sets are possible. non-stop should be preferred plan.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 17 May 2015 02:13

That's precisely why running trains should not be the job of the bureaucracy. Private players are best positioned to add capacity commensurate with market demands and manage yields professionally.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 17 May 2015 02:46

I second that. IR could privatize HSR lines. But finding private players may be difficult in this segment.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 03:29

I don't get it. Traffic volume from Chennai to Delhi non-stop would fill two-sets but at what frequency. What for the segment who want to do Delhi-Indore or Delhi-Bhopal only. What options would they have. Or even Chennai-Hydbad or just Chennai-Blur ? Are you going to run different train-sets for each such segment separately ? Maybe it will work for longer sections with intermediate population's needs to be also taken care of.

Maybe in shorter dedicated sections like was envisaged for KL-HSR the train-sets were to carry 800 passengers for a 4-5 hour long round-trip for the the 500km with intermediate stops.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 May 2015 03:40

HSR is all about frequency. There is no booking in advance, tatkal etc type stuff. You show up at the station and every 30 minutes - 1 hour there is a connector to your destination. Show up at the window and buy the next connector out. If you use 4 coach trainsets with 1-hour frequency from Chennai you will need ~ 40 coaches, because in less than 24 hours the first coach set will be back in Chennai! Each coach Indian length will typically seat 120 or so passengers.

Consider that just the TN express is a 26 coach set + locomotive.

Yes you would run dedicated pairs for each major stop. It is not that difficult as thorough-put is so high. With a proper in-cab signal system upto 200 trainsets can be run on the same line per day provided they all move at the similar speeds. For minor stops a regional slower railway network is used. As you can imagine the bulk freight will have to be moved off the HSR system. Which is why the DFCIL project is the first step to HSR and is so vital for the nation.

No DFCIL, no HSR.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 03:43

I thought KL-HSRL was dead. Not so, there is hope.

http://khsrcl.com/downloads/img-105142803%20%281%29.pdf

The new numbers look half the cost that I recall that was bandied about earlier at ~ 100 crore per km now in the link above. Wonder what changed, just the alignment as it says further east of the current rail lines in the state ? Still looking at $10 billion.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 17 May 2015 10:38

Karthik S wrote:Japan is conducting feasibility study on the Mumbai-Ahmadabad line and China is conducting on Delhi-Chennai line. Why have two different countries for the HSR projects? Wouldn't it be better if we collaborate with one country?

It Keeps your options open and free from occasional Yak Yak from the implementers. Others are eveready to step in should one belch out.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 17 May 2015 12:32

Bade wrote:I thought KL-HSRL was dead. Not so, there is hope.

Hmm.. interesting. But won't this new alignment also require land? The plan is 80% of over-head tracks, and 20% tunneling. For this 80%, they would require land to build pillars etc., and also the elevated line may go through built up areas as well. The earlier plan of having an elevated highway is also now scuttled, am I right? "Intellectuals" had even come up with a reason that such a highway would even split the state into two, and become some kind of a wall

.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 May 2015 13:04

Del-Chen non-stop will be a white elephant. For better capacity utilization it should stop at the major metros in between.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 16:01

Sachin, it is getting a bit jarring your constant whine about intellectuals etc. Stop reading the political weeklies for your fill and start to look beyond the horizon a bit.

The high altitude is getting to wear you out. FYI, the Kochi metro might turn out to be fastest built metro despite all the issues with KL that you do not lose a chance to highlight at the drop of a hat. Yes with all the LA issues, labor issues, the most recent being not having people to work, quarry strike and the politics. Even the Tvm metro which is getting delayed, because the state wants PPP mode whereas ES/DMRC want to use the Kochi model. Yes one of the Ps is private in there if you missed it. Yes the intellectuals want Private equity. Why because they got smarter than whiners and realized there is money to be made for themselves like in Hydbad

where there are no intellectuals that you rail about. Not to mention all the bania shopowners and apt complex IT-Vity guys in B'lur keep dragging alignment decisions in all directions, but hey they are not intellectuals so give them a pass, eh.

If you look at the link, ES thinks other than the Mumbai-Abad (I would also include Delhi in it) and Trv-Mlore lines it does not make sense to plunge head first into other ones yet. He did not give his reasons clearly except for the utilization part as argument.

The first one will happen on Modi's desire alone, the latter will take more than ESreedharan pushing for it.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 18:07

A Delhi-Jaipur-Udaipur-Abad-Mumbai HSR line will be a boon for tourism in that corridor just like the KL-HSR would be too. It is amazing that we refuse to see the potential to make more hay from such selected corridors as like usual we cannot see far beyond the end of our noses.

The KL-HSRL can be extended all the way to Mumbai to put Goa which also attracts tourists a lot. Similarly a coastal route along the east coast all the way up to Kolkata from Chennai has great tourist potential and regular traffic to piggy back on far more than Chennai-Delhi non-stop.

Blur-Chennai is too short a distance with no where to go beyond that other than Hydbad and not much between the two cities. This will have to rely just on local business traffic.

I would put the N-S & E-W alignment and the need for a full quadrilateral much later around 2030+. Right now do the southern coastal routes and Delhi-Mumbai first where all the economic activities and tourism potential is there for picking.

This will be 3/4ths of the quadrilateral already done by 2030 in a phased manner. Western coastal routes all the way up to Delhi first and then the eastern ones to follow soon.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 17 May 2015 19:20

Bade, like Supratik mentioned, HSR lines are so expensive that some could end up being just white elephants. Private investors will look to recover their investment asap. So ticket prices should be expected to be very high. Preference will be towards routes that can absorb the high prices.

There are indeed two schools of thought - dedicated city pair lines and extended regional lines like you point out. Successful examples of both exist everywhere.My theory is that we will first see short distance lines between city pairs which get extended over the next several decades into quadrilaterals, etc.

*Edited for name typo*

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 May 2015 20:05

If HSR must be done - I would do Mum-Ahmd and Chen-Bng-Hyd first and then extend them to Delhi afterwards. Those are the places whose economies currently can absorb a HSR. The other places are too economically weak to sustain a HSR presently. Maybe after 2030.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 May 2015 20:10

Supratik wrote:If HSR must be done - I would do Mum-Ahmd and Chen-Bng-Hyd first and then extend them to Delhi afterwards. Those are the places whose economies currently can absorb a HSR. The other places are too economically weak to sustain a HSR presently. Maybe after 2030.

True. There are some existing commercial network cities that can sustain HSRs.

Vijayawada/Amaravati - Hyd
Blore - HYd
Chennai - Blore
Chennai - Hyd
Hyd - Pune
Pune - Mumb
Ahmedabad - Mumbai
... In south

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 17 May 2015 20:22

So how does a back of envelope HSR calculation go?

Is the following correct?

Code: Select all

(Number of people ferried per hour) * (amount people willing to pay for HSR per hour) >  (amount needed to recover sunk cost plus operational costs)

If so then there would be a lot more cities that are HSR ready (IMO).

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 17 May 2015 20:28

Supratik wrote:If HSR must be done - I would do Mum-Ahmd and Chen-Bng-Hyd first and then extend them to Delhi afterwards. Those are the places whose economies currently can absorb a HSR. The other places are too economically weak to sustain a HSR presently. Maybe after 2030.

+1. Together, these lines will put HSR network at 2000 km, a good start imho.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 20:32

Will not the Delhi-Mumbai infrastructure corridor necessitate a HSR link too along that alignment. So why stop at A'bad from Mumbai ? Is there enough traffic just between these two cities ? What about air-traffic numbers at present for this segment. This will tell you how many willing buyers will be there at HSR ticket prices.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 May 2015 20:35

It should roughly follow the DMIC. So Pune-Mum-Ahm-Jai-Del. That IMO could be viable. Chen-Bgl-Hyd should be phase 1 and then add Nag-Bho-Del.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 17 May 2015 20:55

Supratik wrote:It should roughly follow the DMIC. So Pune-Mum-Ahm-Jai-Del. That IMO could be viable. Chen-Bgl-Hyd should be phase 1 and then add Nag-Bho-Del.

IMO, Ahm-Jai-Del is the weakest link, so it will come up last. Ahm-Mum and Chen-Bgl might be first phase. Mum-Pun HSR might be more expensive due to the terrain. If they can run fast trains with 200KMPH that should cover the distance in about one hour compared to the current 3 for fastest trains.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 May 2015 21:22

If the DMIC materializes on time, then Mum-Ahm-Jai-Del will be viable. So Mum-Ahmd phase 1 and then extend to Pune and Jai-Del. The weak link is Jai. Del-NCR is an economic tiger. So it will make up. Mum-Pune is the other NCR economically. So that extension will be viable. You may have to tunnel through the ghats. Then extend towards Chen. The east is economically weak. So keep that for 2030. Current AP will take 20 yrs to come-up to speed. So it can be done in 2030. The gangetic valley is the poorest and so Del-Kol and Mum-Kol should be taken up last. We can have a spur to Goa and Tvm later.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 17 May 2015 21:36

I would argue that the Tvm-Mlore is quite viable looking at airfares and lack of non-stop options alone connecting all intermediate cities like Kochi, Kozhikode. Google returns $500 airfare between TVM-Kozhikode.

But it is more like $150 or so in reality. Google also returns fares between Chennai-Blur as $50 range.

In any case some private entity will have to pony up the partial costs and heavy loans which the new Asian Infra Bank can perhaps provide to help with starting the process in the short term.

SSundar · Post by **SSundar** » 17 May 2015 23:25

LokeshC wrote:So how does a back of envelope HSR calculation go?

Is the following correct?
Code: Select all
(Number of people ferried per hour) * (amount people willing to pay for HSR per hour) >  (amount needed to recover sunk cost plus operational costs)
If so then there would be a lot more cities that are HSR ready (IMO).

LokeshC, that would be how our brethren the Socialist Angels think

. Some of us are Capitalist Devils

.

Assume that the infrastructure builder/owner and the train operator are two different entities.

The Builder/Owner incurs a construction cost+financing cost+opportunity cost to build the infrastructure. They would need a ROI that they can upfront use to justify investing in such a project in India. There is also a risk premium for "unstable" India. So, a minimum per-mile tariff will be imposed on the train operator that pays off the costs over a certain period (eg. 30 years), yields the risk premium, and meets or exceeds the minimum ROI for the Builder/Owner.

So, the train operator's cost would be Fixed Trip Cost+Charge per mile for track+Station Parking Charges+Variable costs such as passenger amenities, electricity, etc. The train operator would need to recover costs + achieve a minimum ROI.

Add these up and divide by train seating capacity to arrive at the minimum ticket price that needs to be charged.

Any city pair that can fill the train year-round at that ticket price is the first one they will target.