Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

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vishvak
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

After discoveries of shale gas in USA, the prices of gas in world has not decreased for some reason. The price of gas in Asia has not decreased!

British Gas makes 1 billion $ profit per year from just one LNG deal in Africa by selling the gas in Asia and not to USA. The deal is signed such that BG gets to keep most of the profits!

link

The most important point, again, is how prices of gas (LNG etc) have not gone down in Asia while new gas discoveries are made, while suppliers from Africa too have not got any benefits of high prices in Asia!

Who all are these 'Asian' buyers of gas is anyone's guess.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

The reason why Gas priced has not decreased is because it is linked to Oil Prices and most oil producing nation wants it to be that way for obvious reason.

US still imports Gas even though there is shale gas revolution out there but but Shale Gas companies are still in Red so Shale Gas is still not profitable business but there are other industry that supports shale gas that are benefiting.

Gas prices will always remain high as long as its linked to Oil as the latter is high now and the Gas Cartel let by Russia and few others dont want to change it to any thing else.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

Our babus are actually not helping. When BG from UK can make profits just by selling LNG from Africa, why can't some Indian oil firm do the same instead from Africa across the Indian shores? There seems to be no long term planning or even tech knowhow in case such opportunities do arise.

In the case above, the LNG is way cheaper but still there are no opportune and mutually beneficial contracts even when firms from UK get such contracts for cheap. European countries are getting cheaper oil and gas from the middle east and Africa now that dependence of US has decreased substantially. This has made Europeans make contractual realignments from suppliers like Russia for cheaper pricing for oil and gas. Indians seem to be doing not much about it for benefits that discoveries in Africa and at other places. The import lobbies playing with national interests is a case in point.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

LNG prices are still high in Asia rather highest in the world so most countries now prefer to sell in Asia rather then Europe where major gas are through pipes where spot prices or long term prices rule the day.

Coming back to India from what I understand is what the UK company is doing is taking cheap gas from Africa and selling it at Asia for a premium which is a good business model but the question to ask is how much percentage of gas do they supply , At $1 billion I think its really small percentage of over all gas consumption in Asia.

India has stake in Sakhlin project which I presume will help us get gas at lower rate then the market ones but then again the question still remains what percentage of the demand can it cater too ......we still have to buy majorly from open market at high prices.

And why would babu really help that would help lower gas prices for the end consumer ......GOI will any day subsidise the Gas , it much more attractive for Babu to help Reliance and sell our resources abroad via Reliance and make a good sum of amount , good enough for a happy retirement.

What incentive do Babus have really helping ONGC or HPCL buy asset abroad to lower gas prices or atleast reduce the subsidy for gas and oil ?
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by svinayak »

Klaus wrote:Any info on what the ideal sourcing mix should be for the Indian context (Oil:LNG:Coal Seam Gas: Shale Gas:Locally Produced etc)?
These kind of information is classified nowadays.

States are put under pressure using energy policies to change their foreign policies.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

Is not there Two Tier formula used in pricing the NG by ME countries? Different low price for Europe and High Price for Asian region. There was some talk about rationalising the policy as soon USA as well East Africa will be in the market to sell their excess NG.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Kakkaji »

Gas-based power is a luxury for India.

Our power generation sources should be mainly coal (using latest clean coal technologies), hydro, nuclear, and solar (in the long-term).

Gas in India should be used as fertilizer feedstock (replacing naphtha), and as piped gas for residential consumption (replacing LPG cylinders that can be freed up for rural areas where they replace kerosene and firewood), and as piped gas for industrial fuel (replacing oil and coal).

Burning natural gas for power generation is a luxury that only consumers in developed countries can afford. We cannot afford it for now and for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

Iraq has offered three oilfields to India on nomination basis
http://www.pukmedia.com/EN/EN_Direje.aspx?Jimare=6096
(These are small oil fields. A sad conslolation prize for ditching/ avoiding Kurdistani Oil)
Union Petroleum and Natural gas Minister Veerappa Moily has said that Iraq has offered three discovered oilfields to India on nomination basis and agreed to renegotiate an oil block that has been pending since 2000.Iraq, India's second-largest crude oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, offered to give state-owned Indian firms Kifil, West Kifil and Merjan discovered oil blocks in the Middle Furat oilfields on nomination basis, Moily told reporters here.Moily, who returned from Baghdad after attending the Indo-Iraq Joint Commission Meeting, said the "fields are discovered and work can immediately start."
This is the first time in recent past that an oil-rich Gulf nation has offered fields on nomination basis.Previously, Iraq and other Gulf states asked Indians to participate in an international competitive bidding to get the oilfields.raq has also agreed to immediately renegotiate and conclude the contract for Block 8 with ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp, he said.Block-8, located in the western desert in southern Iraq bordering Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, was awarded to OVL in November 2000 by the then Saddam Hussein government.
However, the government formed after the US invasion of the oil-rich country, sought re-negotiation of the contract which has been pending so far.The Block 8 already has a discovery and is estimated to hold 645 million barrels of in-place reserves, of which 54 million are recoverable.Officials said the contract for all the four blocks would be a service contract wherein OVL will be paid a fixed per barrel fee for its efforts in exploring and producing oil.Moily said Iraq also agreed to consider investment in the upcoming 15 million tonne a year oil refinery of Indian Oil Corp (IOC) at Paradip in Orissa."The Iraqi side also expressed interest in the proposal of IOC for participation in a refinery project in Iraq," he said adding the OPEC producer committed to meeting the long term requirement of crude oil of India and was also open to consider more favourable commercial terms including extending the interest free credit period from 30 to 60 days.Iraq supplied 24.04 million tons of crude oil in 2012-13."Possibilities for cooperation in the gas sector that could include import of LNG from Iraq, Indian participation in exploration as well as value addition through petrochemical projects and liquefaction terminals in Iraq were discussed," he said.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

India now Nigeria's biggest crude oil buyer

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 081619.cms
India has overtaken the US as the top buyer of Nigerian crude oil, a top Indian diplomat here has said. Indian High Commissioner to Nigeria Mahesh Sachdev said recent statistics showed that India had been buying more of Nigeria's crude than the US over the last three months. "India will continue to cooperate with Nigeria to improve its economy and it will also assist the country in capacity building of workers in both the public and private sectors," Sachdev said, during a courtesy visit to the Governor of Niger state in northern Nigeria last Wednesday. On the bilateral trade, he said the present figure stands at $10 billion, even as the total investment of India in Nigerian economy could be valued at $16.6 billion. Sachdev disclosed that India would partner with the government of Kano state to establish a film city and also collaborate with the Niger state government to establish health care facilities as well as improve agriculture. He also promised assistance in the state on the training of young people who wish to embark on vocational education. Governor of the state Babangida Aliyu commended India for being one of the few countries that had kept faith with strengthening the work force. According to him, this has helped Nigeria to develop in every ramification. India has recently reduced its dependence on Iranian oil in the wake of the US and European sanctions on the import of oil from the Islamic Republic.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Neshant »

None of these oil suppliers from Iraq to Nigeria are outside the orbit of foreign control. It makes any long term dependence on them as oil suppliers a danger. In our neighborhood, only Iran (and until recently Libya) is left. Rest are all under foreign influence if not outright control.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

^^^
That's right. It is very doubtful whether Nigeria has any independent capability with respect to exploration, refining,transportation, storage or even export, of petroleum. Wonder what the contours of the debate within Nigeria are, with respect to their dependence on multinationals? In India, it-overreliance on MNC oil companies- would be a serious issue. I can't believe there aren't intelligent Nigerians who are dismayed by their country's inability to be an independent oil supplier, after all these years.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

Oil exploration needs Technology and Finance something which is limited to few big MNC in the world most from West , few from East. So its not surprising that most of it is controlled by West.

If India needs a degree of autonomy in its Oil Import then it is necessary to scout countries with big resources and invest and/or co-develop with them.

The only country other then Gelf with huge Oil & Gas Resources are Venezuela , Russia and Iran ....GOI should set up strategic deals with these countries to Guarantee availability of Oil for our Growth & Development. Beyond these what ever we get from Gulf ( i.e Iraq , Saudi Qatar ) would be welcome but these countries are prone to pressures by West so needs to spread our basket.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

^The joke is not on Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Iraq or even Nigeria. It is difficult to believe that personnel in energy sector would not think of potential savings from homegrown tech and huge benefits from it. Instead of complaining about import lobbies stacked against national interests, by this time much more could have been done. It's same chicken and egg problem perhaps.

In USA Texas region personal firms posses hundreds of oil oil wells and approximation is about next 100 years of oil explorations and oil discovery/processing beyond.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

In Nigeria, are there groups or individuals who take a long term of visionary approach, to make Nigeria more self reliant in its most lucrative industry? It's a country of 120 million+ people. It would be hard to believe there aren't Nigerians who think that they are too dependent on MNC's, and hence wish to take steps to make Nigeria more self reliant and sophisticated in the whole exploration-production-refining-transportation process. Do such people express themselves freely, or are they suppressed with the subtle support of the MNC's or the governments of the MNC's?
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/update ... -peak-oil/
Updates on the death of ‘peak oil,’ R.I.P.
. The Department of Energy reported today that US crude oil production for the week ending July 12 surged to the highest level since December 1990, more than 22 years ago (see chart above in the link).Enormous oil shale deposit found in “Saudi Australia”:
A massive oil find has put the Australian Outback on the energy map. The oil in the Southern Australia oil shale resource is estimated at 233 billion barrels, topping all of Australia’s reserves put together and nearly equivalent to all the oil in Saudi Arabia (see chart above). Some oil experts believe the deposit may eventually yield as much as 400 billion barrels, up from the initial maximum estimate.The oil yet to be extracted is valued at US$18 trillion, putting Australia on the energy map among the big-money players. The resource is also putting the small town of Coober Pedy on the map. Coober Pedy had long been the home to 1,700 people who lived in residences literally carved out in its caves. Now another 20,000 people have suddenly flocked there, making it one of the hottest real estate markets in all of Australia.Today, given the new abundance of shale oil, almost no real industry thought leaders are Peak Oil proponents, and the theory is now mainly advocated by self-promoting opportunists looking to gain free media attention by being contrarians to prevailing belief, and environmental activists who cobble together misleading data and fright scenarios to justify costly policies that throw billions of public dollars at renewable energy schemes. the idea that mankind’s ability to produce oil had peaked and particularly in the hydrocarbon fields of America. The inevitability and urgency to subsidize alternatives to hydrocarbons was fueled by the peak oil theory. But what peaked instead was the ability to argue that the era of oil, and hydrocarbons, was over.The notion of imminent exhaustion of hydrocarbons has been a core tenet of alternative energy pundits and rent-seekers. But considering geophysics, this has always been, to put it politely, silly. The Earth’s known, never mind unknown, quantities of hydrocarbons are countable in the tens of thousands of billions of barrels. The scale of the resource itself is bottomless. In the end, what is available is mainly about technologies. To believe oil had peaked you also had to believe that technology had peaked, which is even sillier
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Peregrine »

TAPI pipeline : Project participants, ADB fail to agree on advisory fee
ISLAMABAD : The countries participating in the TAPI gas pipeline and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are locked in a row over fee for hiring the bank as a transaction adviser to raise funds for the project, the cost of which may cross $10 billion against previous estimates of $7.5 billion.

In a fresh development, Kabul has also signed a gas sales and purchase agreement to become part of the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Earlier, it had backed out of the project, saying it was only interested in transit fee.
Cheers Image
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Will the next gusher come from Cauvery Basin?

700 million tonnes ~ 5 Billion barrels.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new ... 956849.ece
Later in 2007, Reliance Industries found gas in the region (in a block named CY-DWN-2001/2). After six years, it will be in action there again, with commercial production expected to be approved by an empowered committee of secretaries. Earlier, it was thought to be unviable to produce gas from the region, when the price of natural gas was $4.2 per MMBTU. However, now that the price has been raised, to what could well be upwards of $6.5 per MMBTU, gas production will be viable.

In April 2011, Reliance Industries again announced discovery of “rich gas and condensate, in the very first well drilled in the block CY-PR-DWN-2001/3”. It was a block that Reliance won in NELP-III. During testing, 37 million metric standard cubic metres of gas and 1,100 barrels of condensate poured out per day. Reliance has named it Dhirubhai-53. Further work is currently going on.

“There definitely is potential in the Cauvery basin to become a major hydrocarbon producing centre,” said Amol Kotwal, Associate Director, Energy & Power Systems Practice, Frost & Sullivan. He added that the hike in the price of gas would encourage further activity in the basin.
Under-explored area

According to the Directorate-General of Hydrocarbons, the ‘Cauvery Basin’ covers an area of 1.50 lakh sq km, covering 25,000 sq km on land, 30,000 sq km in shallow waters and 95,000 sq km in deep waters. And it is under-explored.

The Directorate speaks of the basin in favourable terms, noting that exploration efforts are “still young”, confined mainly to the land area and close to the coast. It goes on to add that the discovery by Reliance “has opened a new corridor for exploration in Cauvery deep water”. In a more telling statement, it says, “big size, subtle features (are) seen… at deeper levels.”

Even with exploration efforts still nascent, the basin is an “established hydrocarbon province”. It is proven to have a resource base of 700 million tonnes — 430 million tonnes on land and 270 offshore. And, as the efforts of Reliance and Hardy have shown, offshore is what holds out promise.

There is more exploration scheduled to happen. Oil India Ltd has issued tenders for rigs to drill three wells in a shallow water block (CY-OSN-2009/2) in the Gulf of Mannar, between India and Sri Lanka.

Here, it is pertinent to recall that Cairn Energy has discovered gas in the Sri Lankan waters of the Mannar basin. GAIL, too, has issued tenders for rigs to drill three wells on land, in Thanjavur district. It expects to complete drilling by March 2014.

Across various locations, ONGC is set to produce oil and gas from “high-pressure, high-temperature” and “tight” reservoirs. These are oil and gas tanks deep below, which pose various technical challenges. Three such reservoirs are in the Cauvery basin — Bhuganagiri, Periyakudi and Pallivaramangalam. Testing is still under way, but given the thickness of the hydrocarbon-bearing sands, it is clear that the potential is enormous.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

Gives an good idea on how the Energy Market of Russia will shape up in next two decades

Rosneft: The New Star Of Russian Energy – Analysis
Gazprom CEO: Shale gas not Russia's concern this century
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Bade »

LNG terminal set to start operations

By Express News Service - KOCHI

08th August 2013 12:59 PM

After a delay of almost a decade, the Rs 4,200-crore Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at Puthuvype by Petronet LNG Limited is all set to start operations. The terminal will have a capacity of 5 million tonnes a year.

Though the official dedication of the terminal will take place in two months, pumping of gas from the terminal will start this month.

It is expected that the terminal will get LNG from Qatar from next week.

“Preparatory works for the supply of LNG to various customers in Ernakulam district is on. Once the consignment reaches the terminal, we will do LNG supply on an experimental basis. The official dedication will take place at a later date which will be declared later,” said a Petronet LNG official.

The terminal will operate at a capacity of 8 per cent initially. But experts point out that the under-utilisation of capacity will be a burden for Petronet as the per unit supply cost of LNG will be higher.

At least 70 per cent of the total capacity, or 3.5 million tonnes a year, is required for the terminal to function at minimum optimum efficiency.

“At least 70 per cent of capacity utilisation of the terminal is needed to avoid losses to the company during transmission. This will also prove costly for the consumers as well,” said M P Sukumaran Nair, director, Centre for Green Technology and Management.

The proposal to start LNG terminal at Dahej in Gujarat and Puthuvype in Kerala was taken in 1998.

The Dahej LNG terminal was commissioned in 2004. The total requirement of LNG for the existing consumers is 0.5818 million tonnes.

Only BPCL Kochi Refinery and FACT have completed arrangements for using LNG as their fuel. However, FACT is yet to ink the deal officially with Petronet as the final price of LNG is not yet known.

The major industrial customers at the first phase are BPCL-KR, Nitta Gelatin and HOCL.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

New Delhi Looks to Buy More Iran Oil, Risks U.S. Ire
NEW DELHI—India's finance minister said Monday that the country wants to boost imports of Iranian crude as it wrestles with economic woes—a step that comes weeks after the U.S. State Department exempted New Delhi from sanctions and one that could complicate U.S. efforts to pressure Tehran into ending its nuclear program.

The minister, P. Chidambaram, didn't disclose details of the Indian government's plan, one of a series of steps aimed at dealing with the country's persistent current-account deficit and its plunging currency.

As a result of U.S. and European sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, Iranian crude shipments to India were down 26.5% in the year ended March 31 from a year earlier, a result welcomed by Washington.

In June, the State Department exempted several countries, including China and India, from financial sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales because those countries continued to reduce their purchases.

But on Monday, Mr. Chidambaram indicated a change in course. "Within the U.N. sanctions and fully complying with the sanctions, there may be more space for imports from Iran," he said.

Under the plan, Iranian oil would be purchased with Indian rupees, which Iran would then use to buy Indian goods—potentially including food, drugs, consumer products and auto parts—for shipment to Iran.

The effect of that would be to offset some of the drain that oil imports impose on India's international balance of payments and help shore up the Indian rupee, which hit a record low against the dollar last week.

The Obama administration and Congress are threatening to increase sanctions on Iran if nuclear diplomacy doesn't show results, potentially putting Washington and New Delhi in conflict. The U.S. House passed legislation this month calling for a total ban on international buying of Iranian crude, and the Senate is expecting to follow suit.

The U.S. law, which is expected to be passed this year, would empower the White House to sanction foreign companies still purchasing Iranian oil. The sanctions could block any sanctioned Indian firms from conducting U.S. dollar transactions or using the American financial system.

It is unclear how much Indian buying of Iranian oil, essentially through a barter arrangement, would ease the pressure on Tehran from the U.S. and its European allies.

"It will call for some very fine balancing on all fronts. It is true that Washington has been discouraging all players from importing crude from Iran," said Uday Bhaskar, a visiting fellow at the National Maritime Foundation and former head of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi. He said he thinks New Delhi will move cautiously so as not to upset Washington.

Ajay Sahai, director-general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said greater Indian imports of Iranian crude would mean "a greater market for Indian products to Iran."

India's exports to Iran as part of past oil purchases have mainly been agricultural products such as basmati rice and soybean meal, along with medicines. But now, Mr. Sahai said, India is prepared to export a wider range of goods and services.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

Exports from Iran are increasing for years. link
..
Iran’s non-oil trade with outside world hit $94.8 billion in the past Iranian calendar year, which ended on March 20, Iranian Customs Administration Director Abbas Memarnejad said in April.
 
TPOI Deputy Director Kiyumars Fat’hollah Kermanshahi said in May 2012 that Iran’s annual imports and exports are projected to reach $77 billion and $83 billion, respectively, by March 2016.
..
Europe's share of the total export of Iran was less than five percent, but the share of Europe in Iran's imports was 28 percent. 
..
Is it too impolite to ask why sanctions are imposed only on Iran petroleum industry and why are there no sanctions on European exports to Iran? Its like dual pricing policy for gas exports from gulf countries - some nations have to pay more because of 'policy'.

The countries most affected by selective oil sanctions seem to be oil importing countries India and China - notice however no sanctions on Saudis who bankrolled puki nukes for decades.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by shyamd »

PC is basically saying we will use all options in our disposal to decrease the deficit and that includes non $ denominated oil imports from Iran.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 833599.cms
Reliance Industries has discovered a new gas reserve in its deepwater Cauvery block, which may produce about 15 million standard cubic meters per day, almost the same as the current output of its KG-D6 fields, government and industry sources said.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

vishvak wrote:The countries most affected by selective oil sanctions seem to be oil importing countries India and China - notice however no sanctions on Saudis who bankrolled puki nukes for decades.
The current sanctions on Iran is driven by Internal US politics which is to look and indulge in strong arm tactics against Iran.

These sanction will not pass through UN as there is no evidence to prove Iran is building N weapons , US knows it and hence uses its Economic and Political clout to brown beat importing countries to toe its line.

But both China and India will be impacted maximum by this sanction so both China and India cannot be brownbeaten , Ofcourse China is a qualatitively different player as any economic sanction on its financial system will mean China counter sanctioning the US and something US cannot afford.

Never mind the US sanction we should do what is best in our national interest and only follow sanctions that comes via UN , so importing crude from Iran is the right thing to do.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

Iran boasts $1.8 trillion in overall oil reserves despite sanctions

Deputy Petroleum Minister Ahmad Qalebani said the government estimates the value of its oil reserves at approximately $1.8 trillion. "This figure has been calculated based on the current oil and gas prices, but it equals Iran's revenues from oil sales in more than a century," he was quoted as saying.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its August report Iran produced nearly 2.68 million barrels of oil last month. Qalebani said exploration during "the past couple of years" has yielded 18.6 billion barrels of oil.

He said the chance of discovering oil during a drilling campaign in Iran was 90 percent last year and the country ranks first in exploration technology in the region.

"It is indicative of Iran's petroleum industry capabilities and the ineffectiveness of sanctions," he said.

The International Energy Agency said Iranian crude oil production declined modestly from June to July though exports rebounded because of the demand for oil from Asian economies.

China repeats its opposition Friday to tougher US sanctions on Iran


China, Iran's largest trading partner and top oil customer, repeated its opposition on Friday to tougher US sanctions on Iran after the House of Representatives approved a bill aimed at halting Iran's oil exports.

The bill seeks to cut Iran's oil exports by a further one million barrels per day to near zero over a year, an attempt to reduce the flow of funds to Tehran's disputed nuclear programme. The legislation provides for heavy penalties for buyers who do not find alternative supplies.

"China has long advocated resolution through dialogue and negotiations and opposes unilateral sanctions from one nation based on its domestic laws," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a faxed statement to Reuters.

"In particular, it opposes sanctions that will hurt the interests of a third party," it added, without elaborating.

The success of any toughening of the sanctions will depend on China, Iran's top customer, which has repeatedly said it opposes unilateral sanctions outside the purview of the United Nations.

China reduced oil purchases from Iran by 21 percent last year, but that was partly on account of differences in the first quarter over the renewal terms of annual contracts and shipping delays.

Chinese oil industry officials have said refiners are likely to cut shipments 5-10 percent this year from last. They cut imports 2 percent in the first six months of the year.

China has consistently advocated resolving the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme through talks and has opposed what it views as unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union made outside the framework of the United Nations
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

USA also wants to sell gas to India while sanctioning Iran-India trade. That also indirectly through British Petroleum.

Iran could send one shipfull of crude every time one ship from Saudi, USA or Oman comes to Indian shores on rupee account. This could work too by making some export-at-requirement mechanism guaranteed by third party - British Petroleum comes to mind here as intermediate model.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

Sanctions on Iran was preceded by Saudi making statement that they can pump more oil to take care of any rise in demands arising out of US sanction on Iran for its customers.

So US sanctions not only deprive Iran of Forex but also helps Saudi increasing its dollar reserves as OPEC trades Oil in USD and Saudi will end up earning more by selling more crude.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by devesh »

http://energyindepth.org/national/hydra ... -opec-oil/

Hydraulic Fracturing Slashes Demand for OPEC Oil
As Gasland-director Josh Fox continues his misinformation tour across the country, he’s certainly hoping his phony talking points will distract Americans from the reality of hydraulic fracturing: namely, increased energy security and a stronger economy. To wit: the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is admitting that demand for its crude oil – long held as an economic weapon over the United States – will be significantly diminished next year. The key factor? Much to Josh Fox’s dismay, it’s the process he’s determined to stop: hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked vast supplies of shale oil that otherwise would be unreachable.

Demand for OPEC’s crude will slip by 300,000 barrels a day next year to 29.6 million a day next year, or about 2.6 percent less than the 12-member group is pumping now, the organization said in its first set of forecasts for 2014. The need for OPEC’s crude will diminish even as global oil demand growth recovers to 1 million barrels a day in 2014, from 800,000 a day this year, amid rising output in the U.S. (DOETCRUD) and Canada.

“The strong growth trend seen in 2013 is expected to continue in 2014” for production from outside OPEC, the organization’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its monthly market report today.

Dependence on OPEC’s crude is slipping as the U.S. and Canada unlock unconventional oil supplies from deep underground shale deposits with new drilling techniques. Brent crude futures have slipped 2.7 percent this year, trading at about $108 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange today, amid signs of slowing growth in China and uneven recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumers.

This great news also comes on the heels of a report by the Energy Information Administration, which found that for the first time in 16 years, American crude oil production surpassed imports at the end of May. Additionally, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed in May that a major increase in North American oil production is sending “shock waves” throughout global energy markets, a phenomenon that could lead to North American energy independence by 2035. As IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven put it: “North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world…A real game changer in every way.” IEA predicts that North America will provide 40 percent of new oil supplies by 2018, while the contribution from OPEC will slip to 30 percent. It’s not surprising, then, that one OPEC official has gloomily admitted: “Some member countries are really suffering from U.S. shale oil.”

It’s easy to see why. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that the Bakken Shale in North Dakota is twice as large as it had previously estimated in 2008, which was itself a 25-fold increase over the agency’s 1995 estimate. Meanwhile, the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas will soon be out-producing the Bakken. California has at least 15 billion barrels of shale oil in the Monterey Shale waiting to be tapped.

We’re only a few years into shale revolution, and it’s already got OPEC running scared.

This increased production has an added bonus: lower prices. Remember how elected leaders always told us that new drilling won’t impact oil prices because we’ll always be subjected to OPEC’s price fluctuations? As it turns out, U.S. oil prices have actually been kept in check because of our enormous domestic supply – another amazing benefit of shale development and hydraulic fracturing.

While Josh Fox manufactures fraudulent scenes – more on that here and here – the real “shock wave” is the one that is leading America towards less reliance on OPEC: Shale and hydraulic fracturing.

USA is going to stay as a prime power for generations to come. better get used to that fact.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sanjaykumar »

Additionally, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed in May that a major increase in North American oil production is sending “shock waves” throughout global energy markets, a phenomenon that could lead to North American energy independence by 2035. As IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven put it: “North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world…A real game changer in every way.” IEA predicts that North America will provide 40 percent of new oil supplies by 2018, while the contribution from OPEC will slip to 30 percent. It’s not surprising, then, that one OPEC official has gloomily admitted: “Some member countries are really suffering from U.S. shale oil.”


Goodbye Islamopetroterrorism.

I told you so. :mrgreen:

Good news for the US and friends, including India. Bad financial news for China and its massive investments in petroleum fields across the globe. Wonder what those fields in Angola and Kazakhstan will be worth in five years.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sudarshan »

Leave aside the issue of "US and friends, including India," or the possibility of Islamopetroterrorism being replaced by US-sponsored petroterrorism (support for Pak, especially). Those are not relevant to this thread.

But I've seen a lot of contrarian views on the size and impact of these shale fields. In particular, reports of steep drops in production of individual wells within five or six years of drilling. These steep drop-offs were predicted before drilling began, and factored in according to some. According to some others, the actual extent of the drop-offs are way above the estimates. Some views paint these shale fields as another bubble waiting to burst.

Then there's the issue of groundwater pollution, with towns coming under water stress in the Texas region. Even without the pollution, fracking is still water-intensive, and some estimates place the utilization of groundwater by fracking at 25% of the local groundwater resources.

Production from these shale sources is at its peak right now, it seems, and it is sending shockwaves through the international petro-system. However, sustainability seems to be the issue, and the rosy estimates of "a hundred years of oil independence" for the US may actually turn out to be more like a twenty-year breather, or less.

Right now, on the 'net, there are about five optimistic views to every contrarian view. A mango man like me is left wondering who is right.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

The USA is doing both. In fact it is doing everything.

- Oil consumption down dramatically and declining as CAFE standards are kicking in. Essentially a doubling of Mileage.
- Electric vehicle numbers slowly chipping away at consumption.
- More urbanized cities means fewer people buying cars.
- More to Natural gas means oil feed stock reduced.
- Ethanol already is the biggest gusher in the USA. Approaching 1 Million barrels a day type numbers. More than all the oil shale combined.

Now the question is what is India doing?
From what I have seen, nothing at all.
Cosmo_R
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Cosmo_R »

Ethanol is dwarfed by shale.
...."According to his findings, the U.S. may end up producing 5 million barrels of shale oil daily by 2017, becoming the world's largest oil producer as it churns out up to 16 million barrels of oil per day, including shale, conventional, liquefied natural gas and biofuels.

http://money.msn.com/now/post--booming- ... -beginning

Ethanol/biofuels diversion into energy adversely (locally and globally) affects food supply.

India cannot/will not do anything even though its shale gas/oil reserves are phenomenal. Why? because it does not have the resources to fund development itself and won't allow foreign private companies who do have the resources to export the hydrocarbons or to sell it in India at a market price. Oh! and BTW, the tribals/farmers/retired railway workers/philosophers/environmentalists/anti anythings are against it.

Good fracking luck. So we import everything how cool is that?

Agree India has done zilch. Also that it will not do any more. Have seen this trend for 40 years.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

For reference.

Image
Austin
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

There are no easy answers that Shale Gas and Oil will revoutionise Energy Security and make conventional Oil irrelevant and cheaper.

For one Shale Companies are in red for long and many suspect its a Wall Street Bubble in making , Others says to make Shell Gas/Oil Viable the conventional Price of Oil/Gas must remain high to justify its production which is the case now thus making Shale Oil/Gas as cheaper then conventional one very doubtful.

I am not even touching the Environmental Aspect of Fraking as that is a subject of its own and a very debatable one.

After all there is the entire ecosystem of country that depends on Oil Business from entire ME to Russia to US and its big players like Exon Mobil , BP , Total etc whose lives depend on this business and keeping the price high as possible to generate profits to itself and its shareholders.

The answer to this will be known in few years from now may be 4-5 years and we see how the production of shale goes , how much of a profitable business it is and how the reserves fares and last but not the least Environmental Impact.

Most countries are moving towards energy effeciency to make the most from natural and expensive source of energy.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sudarshan »

Austin wrote: The answer to this will be known in few years from now may be 4-5 years and we see how the production of shale goes , how much of a profitable business it is and how the reserves fares and last but not the least Environmental Impact.
Yes, it's on a "wait-and-see" basis for now. My sneaking suspicion is that this source is being over-hyped. Outlandish claims are currently being made, about how the Montana region is "Saudi Arabia without the sands." North Dakota is on a recruiting spree, with new towns springing up and real estate going through the roof.

For now, the "traditional" oil producers - OPEC - are waiting and nervously watching to see the extent of the shale boom. And hoping it'll all really go "boom" real soon - which might well happen.

As for India, no sense in blindly swallowing the hype and jumping into the game. I'd like to see some comprehensive studies by Indian groups. Study the phenomenon, take time to put the data together, evaluate the real nature of the game. If it's hype, so be it - still might make sense to get into the game in some limited sense. If it's not hype, and if there's real value to be had, then why not start exploration and drilling in India? But that's not something which will happen with the current govt. in place, at any rate.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sanjaykumar »

US ardour for Alberta tar sands is dead witness Keystone pipeline. So unless you know something doubtful about shale that the US government does not, excuse me while I cheer facts on/in the ground versus airy objections in the sky.
Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

Let India study the phenomenon for at least 10-15 years . In the meantime , we keep paying pay 150 Billion$ annunaly to ME oil Barrons.
sudarshan
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sudarshan »

I don't understand the hostile tone. Nobody's disputing the facts on the ground. I was curious about this shale revolution phenomenon, so I googled, and a lot of material that I've come across, raise some points about the sustainability of this revolution. A guy like me, who is not in the field, can only learn by reading multiple opinions and forming his own intelligent guesses on the situation. So I was trying to learn from this thread on some specific points, especially the claims of steeper-than-expected drop-offs in well production that I've come across.

If those seem like "airy objections in the sky" to you, please feel free to ignore me. I'm sure other members here will be more accommodating with facts and informed opinions to educate noobs like me. If that's not the case, and if there's so much hostility on this forum towards contrarian views, then I'll continue learning from the 'net as and when info becomes available. In any case, a truer picture on the shale phenomenon will emerge in a few years' time, so I'll wait for that.
sudarshan
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sudarshan »

Jhujar saab, would you agree that groundwater pollution due to fracking is a legitimate concern? Or is it an "airy objection," and should members be yelled at for daring to mention it?

India is water-stressed as-is, and water pollution is already a big problem in this country. Is this statement true, or is this an "airy objection" as well?

If both the above are legitimate concerns, then should India not expend some effort in making a trade-off study? Or is the only concern to be: the $150B annual bill to the ME?

If the above are just frivolous distractions and not genuine concerns at all, then I have nothing further to say, and will get my noob ass out of the way of the serious discussions here.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Oil shale facts have changed the situation on the ground. From negative I have moved to mildly positive.

After reading the geology of the Bakken formation I can say that this one piece for sure is real. The source rock for the Bakken is spread over 25,000 sqkm +/- vs the Ghawar field which is only 2000 sqkm IIRC. The in place oil is estimated at 500 Billion barrels with recoverable with present technology of 24 Billion barrels. With future technology more may be recoverable. Also below the present Bakken formation is the three forks formation which is estimated to hold 950 Billion barrels of which 30-40 Billion barrels may be recoverable. Only about 10% of the field has been drilled as it has been extremely hard to land the horizontal drill into the 30 foot wide pay zone. So a lot more drilling is going to happen.

The other shale formations, I have no idea.
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Without India drilling quite a bit we are never going to find out. If there are problems we should deal with them, but we definitely can't hang around and wait forever. I say give it a shot right now....
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