Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

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Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -own-ships
Saudis Said to Discuss Sweetening India Oil Deals With Own Ships
(Oil as strategic commodity waale Din beete Re Bhyyaa, Abb Timely Glut Aayyo Re. Acche din Ka mazza Laayyo Re)
Saudi Arabia is said to be in talks with Indian oil buyers to ship crude on the Middle East supplier’s own tankers, potentially cutting the cost of cargoes.While the world’s biggest crude exporter won’t offer to sell its crude at a discount to its official selling price, it may pass on the benefit of lower shipping costs, four people with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified because the talks are confidential. The use of vessels owned by Saudi Arabia may reduce the cost of its supplies by 25 to 30 cents a barrel, two officials at two Indian refiners said.OPEC’s biggest member is seeking to defend market share amid competition from other suppliers and as refiners across Asia look for bargains from Europe to Mexico. Producers are vying for sales as a global glut is exacerbated by the highest U.S. output in more than three decades and as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps at the fastest pace since 2012.
“Everybody is trying to capture market share,” Ehsan Ul-Haq, an analyst at KBC Energy Economics in London, said by phone. “One of the things the Saudis can do is to provide better freight in order to somehow influence refiners to take more crude from them.”State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s press office didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment. Mattu J.P. Singh, a New Delhi-based spokeswoman for India’s oil ministry, declined to comment.Saudi Arabia may sell its supply to India on a delivered basis, meaning shipping costs are included in the price paid by the buyer for the cargo, the people said. The Middle East nation typically sells its crude on a free-on-board basis, where the buyer arranges freight.The two sides are still discussing the plan, which would need government approval, said the people. Saudi Aramco, as the state oil company is known, sells its crude to Asia at a monthly differential to the average of the Dubai and Oman grades.“The main obstacle for Saudi Aramco is that it issues its OSPs before others in the region so no matter what discount it gives others can always sell at lower prices,” said Kamel al-Harami, an independent industry analyst and former chief executive officer of Kuwait Petroleum International. “The only way to fix this situation is by giving sweeteners or indirect discounts such as crude delivery to customers.”Saudi Arabia is leading OPEC’s policy of maintaining output, aimed at keeping market share and forcing other higher-cost producers including U.S. shale companies to slow drilling activity.Its strategy seems to be working in some Asian nations. South Korea bought a record amount of Saudi crude last month, and the Middle East has held on its rank as the biggest supplier to China, the world’s second-largest oil user.“India is one of the spaces where the Saudis haven’t made a big push yet,” said Amrita Sen, a London-based analyst with Energy Aspects Ltd. “I think this is one of the ways by which they can make a big push.”
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Kakkaji »

Finally, some smart planning for gas from Central Asia:

Twin push for gas pipelines
New Delhi. July 3: India will simultaneously push for two gas pipelines originating from Central Asia, one from Kazakhstan and the other from Turkmenistan, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit there this month, in a bid to hedge its bets in the mineral-rich but politically fragile region.

India is nudging Turkmenistan to begin construction of a pipeline in December that is planned to be routed through Afghanistan and Pakistan, almost 20 years after the project was conceived, senior officials have said.

But simultaneously, oil and gas minister Dharmendra Pradhan told Kazakh interlocutors at a meeting last month that India would conduct a feasibility study to examine the possibility of a pipeline routed through Iran and the Persian Gulf.

"We need to work simultaneously on all these plans," former Indian ambassador to Kazakhstan Ashok Sajjanhar told The Telegraph. "This is a very fragile and volatile region and we need to keep our options open."

Energy hungry India - the world's fourth-largest energy consumer - has for the past two decades dabbled in plans to reduce its dependence on oil from turbulent West Asia by sourcing gas from Central Asia.

For a decade now, proposals for the two pipelines - an India-Pakistan-Iran (IPI) pipeline and a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) route - have remained hobbled by Iran's tense relationship with the US, a key ally, and New Delhi's troubled relations with Islamabad.

In recent months, India has finally pressed ahead with an option it has long considered to circumvent Pakistan - by developing the Iranian port of Chabahar. Transport minister Nitin Gadkari inked a memorandum of agreement with his Iranian counterpart committing to Chabahar's development in May.

The port's development would make a planned International North-South Corridor consisting of a maritime route from Gujarat to Chabahar, and road and rail links from there, through Russia and Azerbaijan, to eastern and central Europe possible.

The Kazakh pipeline plan will consist of a pipeline from that country through Iran to Chabahar, and then an undersea pipeline from there to India.

The start of the TAPI pipeline construction from Turkmenistan would allow a change of route to redirect that pipeline also to Chabahar, if the project through Afghanistan and Pakistan does not materialise, officials said.


"They are resource rich countries and there is great potential for partnership with India in oil, gas and other minerals," secretary (west) in the ministry of external affairs Navtej Sarna said on Friday. "But though we are close, we have had a problem getting our containers there. We are going to address the major problem of connectivity (during this trip)."

These projects remain deeply challenging, and are viewed by some strategic thinkers as unlikely to ever eventually work out.

"Quite frankly, I don't see any of these pipeline projects working out unless we cooperate with the Chinese," said Phunchuk Stobdan, former Indian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan who has also worked at the mission in Kazakhstan. "But we only see China as a competitor, and try to contain it."
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by svinayak »

The Indian oil companies already doing business with western oil companies will grow with the EIC

THe new oil companies like ESSAR will be told to tie up with Russian oil blocks to create a large market share in India for refined products and export

India may become the Oil industry market place for region including ASEAN with Russian oil companies inside.

India could decide the price of oil in the future with global oil gaints inside India

Russian oil gaints cut off from the western market may get access to the global market via India
Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

OPEC, Get Ready For The Second U.S. Oil Boom
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-read ... 25858.html
What OPEC countries fear most is a follow-up technological revolution that will lead to a second oil boom in the U.S., and that fear is now being realized.A technological revolution spurred the U.S. oil boom that resulted in the greatest increase in domestic oil production in a century, and while that has stuttered in the face of a major oil price slump and an OPEC campaign to maintain a grip on market share, the American response could be another technological revolution that demonstrates that the first one was merely an impressive embryonic experiment.It’s not only about shale now—it’s about reviving mature oil fields through advancements in enhanced oil recovery, potentially opening up not only new shale fields, but older fields that have been forgotten.There are myriad gloom-and-doom stories about what is often alluded to as a short-lived oil boom in the U.S. But what many fail to understand is that revolutions of this nature are phased, with the advent of new technology typically followed by a temporary halt in progress while we study the results and come up with something even better.What we’re looking at here are advancements in EOR for greater production and cost efficiency that can weather oil price slumps and awaken America’s sleeping giant oil fields. Soon we are likely to see some new players in the field buying up oil assets and putting more advanced EOR technologies to work to re-ignite the revolution.Phase two of the U.S. oil boom hits at the heart of the inadequacies of the first phase, in a natural progression.There are two very interesting EOR advancements that have caught our attention in recent months: CO2 EOR and Plasma Pulse Technology (PPT).CO2, or carbon dioxide EOR, involves injecting CO2 into ageing oil fields to sweep residual oil to the surface. In some cases, it can extend the production life of a field by more than 25 years. The U.S. is fortunate in this regard because it has a large volume of low-cost, naturally occurring CO2 at its disposal; however, in order to be widely employed the infrastructure to deliver it to oil fields has to be in place.Then we have something a bit more futuristic, even though it is already commercially viable—Plasma Pulse Technology, or PPT. This is a patent pending technology that enables the “re-opening” of wells without water, without polluting chemicals and without causing earthquakes. The ”re-opening” side of this equation means that it doesn’t open rock like fracking, rather it comes in afterwards and cleans up well bores to clear the pathway for oil to flow faster and more efficiently to the surface like it once did.Plasma Pulse Technology (PPT) creates a controlled plasma arc within a vertical well, generating a tremendous amount of heat for a fraction of a second, while the subsequent high-speed hydraulic impulse wave emitted is strong enough to remove any clogged sedimentation from the perforation zone without damaging the steel casing. The series of impulse waves also penetrates deep into the reservoir, which re-opens reservoir permeability for up to a year per treatment.
Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

In ME black market,crude is sold way below the market prices. GOI should allow open import of crude and not limit this to few business entities .

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/busines ... r-now.html

Iran’s oil return a game changer for OPEC, but not for now
OPEC is likely to keep oil output steady and defend its market share this year after Tehran’s nuclear deal with major powers, since a full return of Iranian crude to the market will not be swift, Gulf OPEC delegates said.But 2016 will be a tough year for the producer group when international sanctions on Iran are expected to ease, allowing it to boost oil production and exports.Tehran’s determination to reclaim its position as OPEC’s second largest producer after it clinched the deal on Tuesday will cause new rivalries within the group.But Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies are betting that higher demand next year may help the market absorb extra volume.They doubt that Iran’s return would pose a serious challenge to their market share or force OPEC to address Iran’s request for room to be made for it in the market, at least for now.“If production from non-OPEC slows down as expected and at same time demand continues growing next year, assuming that Iraq doesn’t increase big and Libya is not going to come back, then the market will absorb the Iranian oil,” a senior Gulf OPEC delegate told Reuters. :roll: Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh warned OPEC at its last meeting in June that his country’s oil output could rise by as much as 1 million bpd within six or seven months of sanctions being relaxed.“One million bpd of additional oil from Iran would cover almost the expected demand increase in 2016 and wipe out the impact of stalling U.S. oil production,” he said“Oil prices will go down but the question remains. Would Iran return to its same production capacity as before the sanctions? I doubt it,” said another Gulf OPEC delegate.
Battle for market share
No cut. This year for sure not,” said a third Gulf delegate, adding that it was too early to make a sound judgement on how soon can Iran raise its oil flows.Tehran is keen to recover market share lost under the sanctions that slashed its oil exports to just 1 million bpd from 2.5 million bpd in 2012.But it is likely to face stiff competition for its main Asian markets from fellow OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.Aggressive marketing by the Middle East producers to win Asian buyers is likely to intensify and oil prices will fall further as more Iranian crude starts to flow, making Tehran’s battle for market share tougher.“I think there is a considerable risk of a price war. It is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia would surrender market share to its arch enemy,” said Fritsch.“Iran will be stronger in defending its market share,” said a fourth OPEC delegate, who forecast that prices would not exceed the $50 to $60 range next year.
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Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Peregrine »

GAIL to swap US LNG, issue tender next month

NEW DELHI: State-owned gas utility GAIL India plans to swap over one-third of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) it has contracted from US with a gas seller nearer to India to save on transportation costs.

GAIL, in two deals, has contracted 5.3 million tonnes a year of super-cooled gas (LNG) from the US starting 2018. Of this, it reckons that 3-3.5 million tonnes will be shipped to India for consumption by local industries like power and fertiliser plants.

"Transporting LNG in cryogenic ships from the US will not just be time-consuming, but will add a little extra to the cost, wiping away some of the gain accruing from a Henry Hub linked price for gas," a senior company official said.

To overcome this, GAIL plans to swap 1-2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the US with a seller in Africa, the Middle East or Asia-Pacific.

"There are sellers who sell LNG to Europe from the Middle East or East Africa or the Asia Pacific region. GAIL's US LNG can be supplied to European users and an equivalent volume shipped to India," the official said.

Doing this would help GAIL save on 10-15 days needed for a ship to travel from the US to India and back. For the other seller, the same benefit will accrue, besides saving on the transportation cost.

"We would like the saving the seller makes through the swap to be shared with GAIL. We believe we can save 40-50 cents per million British thermal unit through the swap," he said.

GAIL plans to issue tender for the swap some time in August, he said. "The issue has to go to the Board. Once the Board approves it, we will issue the swap tender through Singapore-based trading arm, GAIL Global Singapore Pte," the official said.

GAIL has two US deals -- one with Cheniere Energy Partners to buy 3.5 million tonnes a year of LNG from Sabine Pass Liquefaction, a subsidiary of Cheniere, and another a 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Dominion Resources for supply of 2.3 million tonnes per annum.

Supplies from both deals begin in 2018. GAIL also holds a 20 per cent stake in Carrizo's Eagle Ford Shale acreage in the US.

Of the US volumes, GAIL has sold 2 million tonnes of LNG to overseas users. "That LNG we do not see coming to India as we did not receive offers from domestic users for that. But we reckon some 3-3.5 million tonnes of US LNG will be consumed in India," the official said.

To trade in LNG on spot and short-term basis, GAIL had opened its LNG trading desk in Singapore in 2011 through its subsidiary, GAIL Global Singapore.

US shale gas price would be cheaper in the Indian market, as it is linked to the Henry Hub, a distribution hub on the natural gas pipeline system in Louisiana, where prices are in the range of USD 3-4 per mmBtu.

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Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

For those interested on how the supplies of Gas from Chabahar will come to India, here's a X-post from the Indian Economy Thread. Interesting presentation on the undersea pipeline with feasibility study.

Quick edit.

Went back and had a look at the project presentation from SAGE.

For noobies like me it's worth a read.
nandakumar wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^

Top priority has to be the Iran sub sea gas pipeline. Something people are forgetting once more.
Right now assets are cheap, know how is cheap, suppliers cheap. India could get this pipeline and lock in a $5/mbtu type price for the gas long term. Reliance built its KG gas deep sea pipeline in 16 months.

The sub sea pipeline is about 200 kilometre. Isnt this a bigger deal many times over?


@ nandakumar, if you have time, please go through the Project presentation. Length will be about 1300 km undersea from Oman to Porbandar.

@ RamaY: Sirjee, even at USD 7/mm Btu, the country will save USD 2/mm Btu. Thank you and Theo garu for stressing the point. learn something new on BRF everyday
Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

If Iran News tells anything strategic, its that Oil as strategic commodity is on last breath. Now please extrapolate further and feel, see the dawn of freedom from ME shenanigans we has been bearing for long and soon it will provide us enough consolidation of strength that India will become Bharat as it was in past . BTW, Middle east now have Kala Bazzar in oil on small scale with discount from Oil Viscounts is crossing 20% plus.Apne acche Bhai from Madhya East know for Maddhyam cut are happily busy, toiling, stirring this oil pot. :lol:
Some one with good sense should approach our Oil Minister and tell him to free open Crude and Gas import market and do not keep this captive to big Biz only. Our Bhais can bring in close to Million barrels a day without much efforts.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by nandakumar »

Mukesh.Kumar
I meant that under sea pipeline that RIL has put in place to transport KG D6 gas to onshore terminal does not exceed 200 km. In contrast the Chabahar to an onshore terminal anywhere on the west coast of India would be many times over. As you point out, it would be six times the distance.
I will read the project report link that you have highlighted. I am not clear about the trade off in terms of cost between transportation by ships (LNG) and undersea pipeline.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

@ Nandakumar- If you look at the May presentation to MoPNG, on slide 39, they have given the projections of costs. Though this gas will be more expensive than what would have come from a TAPI pipeline, the promoters expect cost will be maximum USD 9.5 with Oman taken as a transhipment hub. This is lower by USD 2 compared to LNG imports from Iran.

However, if we are able to get a preferential gas pricing the potential saving will be higher.

[Of course, the figures need to be looked at carefully because: i) PPT from promoters will tend to give a rosier picture; ii) Inevitable project cost escalation in such mega projects]
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Nandakumar,

LNG will be sold as a commoditized product on world market. We will be stuck competing on open market. Keep in mind SoKO/Japan are willing to pay ~ $25/mbtu type prices for LNG. Their economies are hyper efficient enough to make this pay off for them. For instance they use 1/3 the gas to produce a ton of steel as India or China.

A pipeline to India will be a dedicated connection. ME can then export to world from India if necessary. This is a project GOI should subsidize. Rest of world does it.

WRT to length, Norway/UK just built an undersea pipeline 1200 kms long, government subsidised. Know how is international, even KG gas was built internationally, and available cheap cheap right now.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Neshant »

Theo_Fidel wrote: LNG will be sold as a commoditized product on world market. We will be stuck competing on open market.
I doubt that.

LNG prices are not the same all over the world because it requires specific infrastructure to import by sea. The gas has to be compressed at high pressure and low temperatures or something of that sort. Specific types of transport vessels at sea are needed and docking facilities. Its not as simple as filling up an oil tanker and slurping it out on arrival.

Prices were as low as $2 in the US and $12 in Europe not long ago, I don't know what they are today. You'd think it would be a case of shipping US LNG to Europe but its not that simple as transporting liquid oil.

To whom are the ME countries going to sell their gas to? Unless they can pipe it all the way to Europe or China, they won't have a customer for it.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Dharmendra Pradhan ‏@dpradhanbjp 1h1 hour ago

Reviewed Gas Hydrate project;decided to pursue it on Mission Mode;If successful it will bring Gas Revolution in India
Peregrine
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Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Peregrine »

Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India Pipeline : Quo Vadis?

Reshuffling Eurasia’s Energy Deck — Iran, China and Pipelineistan
Talk to the (new) Mullah

So where do all these movements leave TAPI?

The $10 billion TAPI is a soap opera that stretches all the way back to the first Clinton administration. This is what the US government always wanted from the Taliban; a deal to build a gas pipeline to Pakistan and India bypassing Iran. We all know how it all went horribly downhill.


The death of Mullah Omar – whenever that happened – may be a game changer. Not for the moment, tough, because there is an actual Taliban summer offensive going on, and “reconciliation” talks in Afghanistan have been suspended.

Whatever happens next, all the problems plaguing TAPI remain. Turkmenistan – adept of self-isolation, idiosyncratic and unreliable as long as it’s not dealing with China – is a mystery concerning how much natural gas it really holds (the sixth largest or third largest reserves in the world?)

And the idea of committing billions of dollars to build a pipeline traversing a war zone – from Western Afghanistan to Kandahar, not to mention crossing a Balochistan prone to separatist attacks — is nothing short of sheer lunacy.

Energy majors though, remain in the game. France’s Total seems to be in the lead, with Russian and Chinese companies not far behind. Gazprom’s interest in TAPI is key – because the pipeline, if built, would certainly be connected in the future to others which are part of the massive, former Soviet Union energy grid.

To complicate matters further, there is the fractious relationship between Gazprom and Turkmenistan. Until the recent, spectacular Chinese entrance, Ashgabat depended mostly on Russia to market Turkmen gas, and to a lesser extent, Iran.

As part of a nasty ongoing dispute, Turkmengaz accuses Gazprom of economic exploitation. So what is Plan B? Once again, China. Beijing already buys more than half of all Turkmen gas exports. That flows through the Central Asia-China pipeline; full capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year, only used by half at the moment.

China is already helping Turkmenistan to develop Galkynysh, the second largest gas field in the world after South Pars.

And needless to add, China is as much interested in buying more gas from Turkmenistan – the Pipelineistan way – as from Iran. Pipelineistan fits right into China’s privileged “escape from Malacca” strategy; to buy a maximum of energy as far away from the U.S. Navy as possible.

So Turkmenistan is bound to get closer and closer, energy-wise, to Beijing.
That leaves the Turkmen option of supplying the EU in the dust – as much as Brussels has been courting Ashgabat for years.
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Prem
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilp ... ckles.html
Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles
If the oil futures market is correct, Saudi Arabia will start running into trouble within two years. It will be in existential crisis by the end of the decade.The contract price of US crude oil for delivery in December 2020 is currently $62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and the petro-rentier states.The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market and drive out rivals, boosting their own output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn.
Bank of America says OPEC is now "effectively dissolved". The cartel might as well shut down its offices in Vienna to save money.If the aim was to choke the US shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly, just as they misjudged the growing shale threat at every stage for eight years. "It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought, at least in the short-run," said the Saudi central bank in its latest stability report.
"The main impact has been to cut back on developmental drilling of new oil wells, rather than slowing the flow of oil from existing wells. This requires more patience," it said.
One Saudi expert was blunter. "The policy hasn't worked and it will never work," he said.
By causing the oil price to crash, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have certainly killed off prospects for a raft of high-cost ventures in the Russian Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, the deep waters of the mid-Atlantic, and the Canadian tar sands.Consultants Wood Mackenzie say the major oil and gas companies have shelved 46 large projects, deferring $200bn of investments.
The problem for the Saudis is that US shale frackers are not high-cost. They are mostly mid-cost, and as I reported from the CERAWeek energy forum in Houston, experts at IHS think shale companies may be able to shave those costs by 45pc this year - and not only by switching tactically to high-yielding wells.Advanced pad drilling techniques allow frackers to launch five or ten wells in different directions from the same site. Smart drill-bits with computer chips can seek out cracks in the rock. New dissolvable plugs promise to save $300,000 a well. "We've driven down drilling costs by 50pc, and we can see another 30pc ahead," said John Hess, head of the Hess Corporation.
It was the same story from Scott Sheffield, head of Pioneer Natural Resources. "We have just drilled an 18,000 ft well in 16 days in the Permian Basin. Last year it took 30 days," he said.
The North American rig-count has dropped to 664 from 1,608 in October but output still rose to a 43-year high of 9.6m b/d June. It has only just begun to roll over. "The freight train of North American tight oil has kept on coming," said Rex Tillerson, head of Exxon Mobil.The wells will still be there. The technology and infrastructure will still there. Stronger companies will mop up on the cheap, taking over the operations. Once oil climbs back to $60 or even $55 - since the threshold keeps falling - they will crank up production almost instantly.
OPEC now faces a permanent headwind. Each rise in price will be capped by a surge in US output. The only constraint is the scale of US reserves that can be extracted at mid-cost, and these may be bigger than originally supposed, not to mention the parallel possibilities in Argentina and Australia, or the possibility for "clean fracking" in China as plasma pulse technology cuts water needs.
Mr Sheffield said the Permian Basin in Texas could alone produce 5-6m b/d in the long-term, more than Saudi Arabia's giant Ghawar field, t
he biggest in the world.Money began to leak out of Saudi Arabia after the Arab Spring, with net capital outflows reaching 8pc of GDP annually even before the oil price crash. The country has since been burning through its foreign reserves at a vertiginous pace.The reserves peaked at $737bn in August of 2014. They dropped to $672 in May. At current prices they are falling by at least $12bn a month.Diplomatic spending is what underpins the Saudi sphere of influence caught in a Middle East version of Europe's Thirty Year War, and still reeling from the after-shocks of a crushed democratic revolt.We may yet find that the US oil industry has greater staying power than the rickety political edifice behind OPEC.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

India's Rise to 3rd Place in Oil Demand
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclement ... il-demand/
. Boosted by fallen crude prices, India is expected to overtake Japan to become the world’s 3rd largest oil consumer, at about 4.1 million b/d. India is now where China was a decade ago, and oil consumption is strongly linked to economic growth. Petroleum has no large-scale substitute, so as countries develop and install more extensive transportation systems, oil demand increases. Since 2005, India has been responsible for 20% of incremental global oil demand increase, versus 55% for China.Compared to last year, India’s oil demand has risen 300,000 b/d, putting the country on track to surpass China in incremental growth for 2015. Because “oil is a global commodity sold on an international market” (why seeking “energy security” is far better than “energy independence”) all oil consuming nations must continually monitor India’s arrival. India imports the great bulk of its oil, and 65% of crude imports come from the risky Middle East, which produces a third of the oil and has half of proven reserves. If/when Western sanctions are lifted on Iran, India has already acknowledged that it wants more imports. After China, India is Iran’s largest oil customer. India is now importing about 285,000 b/d of crude from Iran, up nearly 40% from last year.
Although Indians make less than 5% of what Americans make, India’s strong economic growth is trickling down to rising personal incomes, up 40% since 2008. The world’s poor want and deserve the same personal mobility Westerners have enjoyed for a century. India’s Middle Class could reach 45% of the population by 2030, up from 22% today and 4% in 2000. With 1,270 million people, the latent demand for oil in India is staggering. India has just 40 cars per every 1,000 people, compared to 525 in Western Europe. Bolstered by cheaper cars, lower fuel prices, and solid financing options, India’s passenger-vehicle sales are up nearly 20% this year. And for more economic growth, India’s Prime Minister Modi wants to end government controls on fuel pricing, helping state-run refiners meet rising demand.Gasoline use is up 20% this year, but still only accounts for 10% of India’s oil demand, versus 20% in China and 47% in the U.S. Fourth globally, behind the U.S., China, and Russia, India now has a refining capacity of 4.5 million b/d, double the capacity of 2006. This is more than any country in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia leads at 2.9 million b/d), and potentially reaching 6.3 million b/d by 2020. Within a few years, India could become the world’s largest market for diesel cars, now standing at over 50% of the fleet. Germany is the global leader but wants more environmental policies to restrict sales. Diesel in India has taken a hit because fuel prices have been deregulated, but the introduction of small diesel engines and a proliferation of popular compact SUVs install an upward trend.At nearly 12 million people a year, India’s urbanization will also be critical to oil use because urbanites have better access and more money to consume energy. This historic transformation, however, also gives Indian officials a chance to buffer expanding consumption. India is an emerging market where oil isn’t as entrenched in the demand structure as it is in the West. More efficient vehicles, a focus on oil as a designed transport fuel (transport is only 40% of India’s oil demand versus 75% in the U.S.), and improved/more expansive public transportation systems are three key strategies. Superhighways are being built and initiatives to reduce congestion are working , but numerous projects are running years behind schedule.
Too many Westerners with all the energy they need are unaware that it’s those humans that DON’T have access to modern fuels such as petroleum that make less money and live less healthy, shorter lives. India is easily the most energy deprived nation on Earth, where a staggering 960 million people live on less than $2 a day, 700 million lack access to modern energy systems like oil, and 310 million have no access to electricity, the foundation of modern society.This unacceptable calamity is why the claim that India must first become more “energy efficient” is so utterly backwards. India’s immediate needs are clear: an immense energy growth strategy to give citizens a legitimate shot at a better life. Illustrating the urgency, India has 650 million people under the age of 25, meaning that India has more people under 25 than the entire populations of the U.S., Brazil, and Japan combined.
The case of India exemplifies that the true “world’s greatest problem” is an insidious Western push that’s making worsening global poverty an afterthought to computer-modeled predications. The real “moral challenge of our time” is that the world doesn’t have nearly enough energy, not the false Western-based assertion that “the world is using too much energy.” More reliable, cheaper, and readily available oil, coal, and gas have been the enabling energy supply for our own incredibly higher standards of living.Any hypocrisy to limit these essential energy options for the developing world should be rejected by the environmental movement: it drastically erodes human progress and our creditability. The world’s poor surely scoffed, for instance, when U.S. Secretary of State Kerry’s flight to India to rail about fossil fuel use devoured 20,000 gallons of oil-based jet fuel – as much oil product as 185,000 Indians use in an entire day.
TSJones
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by TSJones »

the US oil industry is a product of many boom and bust cycles. They have seen the highs and lived the lows. They have learned to be efficient with a capital "E".

Don't get me wrong, the US oil business is hurting and there has been a number of layoffs and several bankruptcies recently. That is prolly marginal business. The companies that are solid did not plan on getting $100+ barrel for ever. That would be foolish thinking.

However, eventually things will die back as more marginal players are kicked out of the business. Things look pretty grim right now. but a lot of them will survive.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by uddu »

This makes it even more urgent to ensure that only Hybrid/Electric vehicles are sold in India. Atleast in the cities with immediate effect.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Kakkaji »

uddu wrote:This makes it even more urgent to ensure that only Hybrid/Electric vehicles are sold in India. Atleast in the cities with immediate effect.
Hybrid makes eminent sense for the stop-n-go traffic in Indian cities. Pity Suzuki doesn't make them, else Maruti would have been able to make them economically.

For electric cars, where is the surplus electricity in India?
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Gyan »

I think that US Shale Oil industry can tighten it's belt and survive long term on NYMEX crude oil price of USD 35-45 per barrel. Note:- Crude oil prices/profitability is also related to wages, rig costs, acreage costs, royalties, taxs, input costs etc all which will also trend down. Shale Oil is here to stay and lot of new areas will also open up over time in new nations. I think long term crude oil at USD 30-50 per barrel is real possibility.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by uddu »

http://www.firstpost.com/business/fame- ... 89845.html

Elaborating how FAME would work out, he said: "The customer can get the incentive in the form of lower cost of hybrid or electric vehicles at the time of its purchase. Manufacturers can claim the incentive from the government at the end of each month."

As per the scheme, depending on technology, battery operated scooters and motorcycles will be eligible to demand incentives ranging between Rs 1,800 to Rs 29,000. Similarly in three-wheelers it is from Rs 3,300 and Rs 61,000.

In four-wheelers, the incentives range from Rs 13,000 to Rs 1.38 lakh, while in light commercial vehicles it is from Rs 17,000 to Rs 1.87 lakh, and for buses it is from Rs 34 lakh to Rs 66 lakh.

"Keeping in view the limited domestic reserves of the conventional fuels and the rising demand in the automobile sector, it is a dire necessity to find alternative sources of energy for transport which are eco-friendly yet cost-effective," Geete said at the launch.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by rsingh »

Gyan wrote:I think that US Shale Oil industry can tighten it's belt and survive long term on NYMEX crude oil price of USD 35-45 per barrel. Note:- Crude oil prices/profitability is also related to wages, rig costs, acreage costs, royalties, taxs, input costs etc all which will also trend down. Shale Oil is here to stay and lot of new areas will also open up over time in new nations. I think long term crude oil at USD 30-50 per barrel is real possibility.
I never got this . Whole world has oil. Why not India? Is it because Indian plate moved north from the place where it was joined by Madagascar and Australia? Australia does't have Oil either. No oil and not even Shale oil. all kind of nikhatoo nations have oil .......but not india.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by VinodTK »

rsingh wrote:
Gyan wrote:I think that US Shale Oil industry can tighten it's belt and survive long term on NYMEX crude oil price of USD 35-45 per barrel. Note:- Crude oil prices/profitability is also related to wages, rig costs, acreage costs, royalties, taxs, input costs etc all which will also trend down. Shale Oil is here to stay and lot of new areas will also open up over time in new nations. I think long term crude oil at USD 30-50 per barrel is real possibility.
I never got this . Whole world has oil. Why not India? Is it because Indian plate moved north from the place where it was joined by Madagascar and Australia? Australia does't have Oil either. No oil and not even Shale oil. all kind of nikhatoo nations have oil .......but not india.
India dos not have oil because of the vast Hindu right wing conspiracy to deny oil to non Hindus :)
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Karthik S »

uddu wrote:This makes it even more urgent to ensure that only Hybrid/Electric vehicles are sold in India. Atleast in the cities with immediate effect.
Public transport is the best bet for Indian cities. Have vast metro network in top 7-8 cities.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by sanjaykumar »

India has oil under the Dakkan Shield.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Indian plate/craton is very very old. Age of planet old. 2.5 Billion years+ in most cases. Oil is typically formed in sedimentary layers from 500 millions years ago or so which India is particularly short off. Good observation that Australia is short of oil. India/Australia/South Africa/Madagascar were all together and all lack abundant cap rock oil.

India does have oil. Explorations is very limited so far. India has a ton of shale rock. Though it is very very expensive to release this oil. Also we have done a poor job of drilling the crust. For reference, just the Louisiana offshore region in USA has had 100,000 + oil wells drilled into it. Once every sqkm or so. In entire India fewer than 10,000 oil wells have been drilled.

----------------

WRT under the deccan sheild. Extremely unlikely for several reasons.
- Not the right age.
- Not sedimentary
- Lack of cap rock
- Probably well exceeded the oil/gas window during the lava eruption.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Prem »

sanjaykumar wrote:India has oil under the Dakkan Shield.
Miles deep and no way to extract or even take a peek to make estimation/s.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Kakkaji »

India has a lot of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) which, if extracted economically, can provide industrial and domestic fuel in Eastern and Central India. I hope the Govt auctions CBM extraction rights alongside the coal block auctions.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Neshant »

Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles
It seems Saudi Arabia's plan to bankrupt vast segment of US shale oil & Canadian tar sands producers has back fired. If the latter end up adapting to the price drop with lower cost of production per barrel and manage to stay in business, it is Saudi Arabia that will be the loser in this price war. They would have created low cost competition for themselves.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Austin »

Neshant wrote:
Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles
It seems Saudi Arabia's plan to bankrupt vast segment of US shale oil & Canadian tar sands producers has back fired. If the latter end up adapting to the price drop with lower cost of production per barrel and manage to stay in business, it is Saudi Arabia that will be the loser in this price war. They would have created low cost competition for themselves.
Saudi Determined to Crash Oil Prices Until US Shale Breathes Its Last

I suspect SA intention has to do with Geo-Politics to get even with US on the Iran N Deal and for the support they were expecting and did not get in Syria/ISIS

AFAIK Shale Oil was already in red when the Oil Price was about $100 , It was never a profitable industry from business pov but was subsidised by cheap credit.

Now the prices are in 40's range , there is this double whammy of unprofitable drilling of shale and to pay off your interest/loans back

Arthur Berman Interview

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015- ... production

Has U.S. oil production started to turn down?

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.ca/201 ... -turn.html
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by SaiK »

massans are well balanced
1.8% of world reserves consuming oil at 2% of it!

Image
Suraj
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Suraj »

What's more damning is that Canada consumes as much oil as we do per year, in the 2-2.9 Mbbl/day range. A country of, what, 25 million. And we have to listen to them talking about 'climate change'.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

That’s a bit dated if you ask me. 2004 estimate.
The USA oil reserves have been rising strongly recently with the condensates and shale reserves being added in.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_NUS_a.htm

In 2103 it was ~ 35 Billion barrels and rising about 10%-20% per year, total more like 4%. Also another 250 Billion barrels should be recoverable with today’s technology. The USA also has another 1500 Billion barrels (yes correct # of zeros), of green river shale rock that is economically viable at oil above ~$120-$150. The USA burn other peoples oil because it is cheaper. No I don’t think the USA is short hydrocarbons like that map shows.

Also look at EU. They actually burn more than USA IIRC.

WRT Canada keep in mind they have easily the largest deposits of hydrocarbons in the world. An incredible 2.5 Trillion (yes with a T) Barrels in oil sands. That is more Hydrocarbon than the rest of the planet put together, well maybe excluding Venezuela.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Lisa »

Suraj wrote:What's more damning is that Canada consumes as much oil as we do per year, in the 2-2.9 Mbbl/day range. A country of, what, 25 million. And we have to listen to them talking about 'climate change'.
India global position with respect to per capita carbon output is 133. When you have more time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... per_capita
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by TSJones »

^^^^^that statistic is meaningless. China is only at number 55. yet they are literally choking in their own pollution.

just because you got gazillions of peasants living on the land and not producing industrial and vehicular pollution on a per capita basis doesn't mean there is no huge pollution problem for that particular country.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by TSJones »

The demise of the US independent oil producers is a bit premature.

Those independents that borrowed heavily against their production are indeed in trouble. They will be forced out.

Those that didn't borrow so much will stay in.

Marginal players in the business have historically been part of the boom and bust cycle.

There is a bill before congress to allow the producers to start exporting US domestic oil.

I don't know if it will help them out or not but they seem to think it will.
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Lisa »

TSJones wrote:^^^^^that statistic is meaningless. China is only at number 55. yet they are literally choking in their own pollution.

just because you got gazillions of peasants living on the land and not producing industrial and vehicular pollution on a per capita basis doesn't mean there is no huge pollution problem for that particular country.
What utter nonsense. You want us to reduce our footprint despite the fact that you use 12 times our current utility. Are you for real. You have build a society that thrives on power and now when we decide to do the same suddenly the white man remembers pollution.

Look in the mirror one day and say "I met an uppity Indian who had the audacity to say that his people want to live like this - the gall" and then smile. :) :) :)
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by member_23370 »

If china is choking its citizens it will pay for it. Why are europe and US getting their undies in a knot?
Suraj
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Post by Suraj »

TSJones wrote:^^^^^that statistic is meaningless. China is only at number 55. yet they are literally choking in their own pollution.
I'm talking about CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions. You're talking about PM2.5 and PM5 particulates. Lower particulate emissions does not mean lower pollution. It's perfectly possible to be a gross polluter of greenhouse gases while havnig low particulate emissions as in the case of Canada, and the other way around, like in India. Particulate pollution is also localized, and clears up significantly through precipitation, while the effect of greenhouse gases is far more persistent and global in nature.
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