India & Natural Disaster Management

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Lalmohan
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Lalmohan »

i guess we can't fight mother earth for ever... adapt and survive...
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by SaiK »

to adapt, one has to learn first.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Bade »

From the terrain pics at the NRSC/ISRO site when combined with the three videos, it is clear that the Chorabari lake could have breached in addition to the flows from higher elevations with direct channels to Kedarnath along the same the path. The videos above also show possible flows into the lake itself, which means in heavy rainfall situations it can also collect water draining out from higher elevations and finding its path into the lake. The steep slopes around the lake indicates, its carrying capacity can be very large and if a breach happens at one of the lower points alongside the slope going downstream then we have what we saw in Kedarnath.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Bade »

http://newindianexpress.com/videos/nati ... 660450.ece

This report with statements from Dr Kimothi from UK Space center points to the glacier lake. It is not the best video for quality but it does come from a local person in charge.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by jamwal »

chaanakya wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:chaanakya,

despite early reports it seems clear this was chorbari lake that failed. There is no sign of it in the latest GIS image.

http://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/phot ... 060077.jpg

In this image of Chorbari, you can see the edge of the glacier moraine directly across from the lake. Though you can't see it the glacier is directly in front of you. The failure took place at the wall to the right, further down the water, so that entire bowl must have filled with water, which then flooded the town.
Chorabari Lake is empty now. The failure point is clearly visible in the images posted in the blog and here by Bade and the force of water eroded the western side of the hill directly in the path and seems to have created two channels, one west and other in the centre. This seems to have happened after the first deluge took place from eastern side.
.
Looks pretty much like it.
Lakes such as these usually have one or more drainage points from where the water flows out once it reaches a certain level. These water bodies are sources of numerous small and large streams in mountains. Very often, the flow of water is dependent on position of a few boulders blocking the exit point.

The videos posted by Chanakya show the bowl like features of the lake with steep but unstable mountainside which can hold enormous amounts of water. The mountains themselves can funnel quite a bit of water in to the lake during heavy rainfall. I'm inclined to think that the gradual drainage of water was blocked for some reason and the water instead of flowing out slowly, started to collect in the lake until the blockage/dam broke. The accounts of a loud noise just before the flood also help confirm this theory. It can happen due to a cloudburst too, but the scale of destruction is too much for an ordinary cloudburst.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

This is Very high resolution image linked in Dr Dave's blog post in a comment. The picture seems to have been taken from below in general direction of north -west pointing towards glaciar snout. Embankment of chorabari lake is clearly visible though lake itself is hidden from the view. West Channel of madakini seems to be dried and blocked. The Area of erosion in the satellite image is , perhaps , from this area. Hope we get similar image after the event.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/prithishra ... otostream/
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Singha »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 851130.cms

The Uttarakhand devastation is beyond words and defies description. There is a spate of opinions of all kinds in the media, perhaps bigger than the spate in the Ganga itself. I think I need to chip in here though I may be treading on many toes and will be a target of criticism. But the bitter truth must be told in the interest of all.

In the days gone by, all pilgrims had to trek to the holy spots in the high Himalayas. There were places called 'chatti' where they would halt for the night and move on the next day. The paths were never wider than six feet. It is time we returned to this practice by reversing the mantra 'mountains for the millions' to 'mountains for the enlightened ones only'.

Only those who are hardy and tough should be privileged to visit these spots. The rest should watch the shrines on their HD TVs. After all, we all cannot go to North and South Poles to savour their beauty. So why should we damage and spoil our sacred shrines?

No doubt every soul in the hills should enjoy the fruits of modern civilization like good roads, schools, hospitals etc but the basic contradiction is that once you have all that, you have to say goodbye to the solitude and serenity of the hills and invite more ecological disasters like soil erosion, floods etc.

In 1969, when I went to Kausani, there was no electricity there let aside any hotel. Today, it is a bubbly and noisy little town with all that one may wish to have. For me, the place is finished.

Just as restrictions have been placed in wildlife sanctuaries, strict rules should be framed that each shrine will take so many pilgrims a year and no more. That's it. No VIP quotas. Remove all hotels and dharamshalas at the shrines. Have a 'darshan' and back you go. I have been to Gangotri 12 times and on my last visit, the queue for parking on both sides of the road was 2km long. I am not going there in a hurry.

This business of ponies and dandi rides should be done away with. On the outskirts of Gaurikund, there is a 1 km-long stable for ponies which stinks like hell. Are we there to be in heavenly nature or to suffer the stink? What kind of pilgrimage is this?

I have images of Kedarnath shot in 1882. In these pictures, there is just one cottage outside the shrine, perhaps that of the pujari. In those days, no one was allowed to spend the night at the shrines as they kept the shrine as a zero pollution zone. Why can't we follow this golden practice now?

Of course, at the bottom of the problems lies the malady of over-population. Why is Bhutan so well kept in comparison to our hills? It is simply the check on population. When I saw the Bhutan hills, my first reaction was that our hills must have been like that 500 years ago.

Also, this craze for roads and still more roads is taking a big toll on the ecology. Roads are not made by recital of prayers. Heavy blasting and uprooting of trees has a direct bearing on the ecology. So much so that natural water springs under the ground have been disturbed by blasting and many have dried up.

Let's face it. Pilgrimage today has become the ugly face of tourism. The tourism lobby has destroyed the sanctity of the shrines. On my last visit to Badrinath, I saw a flourishing market selling cheap woollens and garments. Not to be outdone, dhabas were playing the latest film music at top volume. Not one soul found anything wrong with that.

I am distressed to see innocent pilgrims suffer in such great numbers. My heart bleeds for them. But nature would not follow what suits us at Uttarkashi and Gangotri. It is for us to frame rules for our own sake and for that of the hills.

(The writer is a professional photographer. He has authored 23 pictorial books on the Himalayas in the past 34 years.)
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by shaardula »

given the geography of the place its amazing that 2013 appears to be a millennial event.

also given that there are natural flows on the east and west of place, i wonder if these can be enhanced and the lake be engineered with gates to regulate the flows and prevent overflowing?
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

It is sad to say this but not a single person noticed previously that the lake level is a good 50'-60' below the outflow lip. Meaning we have a lake with no controlled outflow. Despite what it looks like the failure was unlikely to be caused by overtopping. Overtopping rarely causes catastrophic failure as was seen here. The presence of a lake far below its outflow level immediately tells me the hydraulic seepage is ongoing in the morraine dam. Moraine structure is extremely porous and folks would be surprised to know that random pile of rocks is often 20%-30% open space. During normal time, when water is low the structure is quite stable but when you add water pressure things change in jiffy. The pressure of water acting at the base of the structure will cause hydraulic piping. Hydraulic piping will fill the interior of the dam with water. The pressure of this water will then lift the rocks up, yes water pressure is this strong, and this failure of gravitational stability will cause the entire dam to slide down stream under the push of water. The failure occurs at the base. The worst dam disasters are caused by this. This is the reason why all dams, even massive ones like Nagarjuna Sagar have drainage galleries deep within the dam. As long as the water that seeps into the dam is drained everything will be stable. In the absence of interanl drainage this structure was quite simply a bomb waiting to go off.

I suspect a single 12" steel pipe driven into the base of this structure would have prevented its catastrophic failure. Overtopping sure but that would have been a slow hours long event. There must have been hundreds of geologists and hydraulic experts, thousands of the many dam engineers working in that area who visited this structure and yet no one put 2+2 together for this particular lake. :(

Singha saar,

I looked at the lakes above Badrinath that you pointed out. If you are talking about Lake Deo Tal types, it is not not similar, they conspicuously drain over their lip. Sure they can fail in an overtopping but in that case the smaller quantity inside this lake will be the least of your problems! Also some of those lakes appear to drain over the pass into the Sutlej Basin and lack a conspicous drain area to cause failure. Yes there are a few other smaller lakes that could bear watching. And there appear to be many of these moraine wall structures that could similarly fail. Landslides are concern as you pointed out, but it is hard to avoid that danger in these areas. My concern also would be a glacial lake outburst. Several of the glaciers reach all the way down to river bed. A rapid movement or ice/snow avalanche could easily cause a lake forming event, that would then fail in catastrophic outburst in a matter of hours or days with no one the wiser. Takes constant monitoring, on a daily basis with sensors.

OTOH there are several moraine lakes in the area that look precarious.
Here is one in the Dhauliganga River, where the Dauliganga dam is located down stream. The yellow line is 500 m +/-, so quite large.

Image
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by krishnan »

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/exclu ... 130701.htm
‘How much rain fell on June 16 and 17 is NOT known because the area of Kedarnath is not covered by the Indian Meteorological Department,’ M Shashidhar Reddy, vice chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority tells Sheela Bhatt. Because of this, he says, the NDMA will not know “what exactly happened over there, in and around the Kedarnath temple.”

In a state where more than three lakh tourists are present in the Himalayan mountain range during any tourist season, a state in which the Char Dham shrines are located, there is no equipment to forecast weather, there is no met department arrangement to measure the rains at Kedarnath or Badrinath, or facilities of any kind to observe the violent nature of rains in and around the glaciers behind the famous ancient temples.

All these years the government has never ever known which are the likely places the rains can strike. They never know anything, even about the intensity, says none else than M Shashidhar Reddy, vice chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the chairman of the NDMA, an agency which is sorely lacking in action, drive and focus.

Talking exclusively to rediff.com, Reddy said how much rain fell on June 16 and 17 is NOT known because the area of Kedarnath is not covered by the Indian Meteorological Department. He said the NDMA will not know “what exactly happened over there, in and around the Kedarnath temple.”

What he means is the “scientific sequence of nature’s fury will never be known because there was no equipment put up there. What experts can now do is assess, guess and estimate the event.”

When rediff.com asked Reddy more about the humongous rainfall in which the death toll is expected to be in the thousands, he put it simply, “Nobody knew that this will be the kind of rainfall and this will be the kind of impact.”

Asked again -- “You are talking about the intensity of rains, right?” -- Reddy replied that he was not talking only about intensity. “Where is it going to rain today” should be known to authorities to carry out remedial measures.

"That makes all the difference," he said. In this case and in all the cases, the details of any kind -- to take action -- is not known to any authority in Uttarakhand so the helplessness of the state government is not a surprise -- and that no action was taken is also not a surprise.

After getting an idea of the horrific tragedy late in the day on June 19, Reddy called for a meeting of the officials of IMD (the agency that forecasts weather) and also the Central Water Commission (which forecasts and monitors floods).

Reddy said, “I wanted to know what was their present status of forecasting and observational capability. Apparently, they didn’t know how much it rained (in Uttarakhand on June 16-17) and where it rained. We don’t have the observation capacity (in those areas).”


When asked why, he said, “We don’t have it! We just don’t have it! It’s not there! All the areas are not covered anywhere in the world. In the June 19 meeting I asked them what was their plan for the next five years. I didn’t waste any time. I knew Uttarakhand is a warning that has come. The chief minister (Vijay Bahuguna) rightly said that with this kind of forecast (“very heavy rain”), what does he do? Could he build a bund behind the Kedarnath temple to stop it when he got the forecast on Sunday night? There was no precise warning even. They didn’t know, even, where it was going to happen. I am not finding fault with anybody. But, there were gaps in communicating the warning and how precise the warning has to be.”

After accepting that things have gone wrong, Reddy says, “I said in the high-level meeting that within 10 days I want a plan for world class observational and forecasting capabilities to cover the Char Dham yatra. We will follow it up.”
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by manju »

I have pictures of relief activity of Ramakrishna Mission in pdf format. I am not sure how to load them here..
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by jamwal »

Upload it on a fileharing site and post link here
Singha wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 851130.cms

In the days gone by, all pilgrims had to trek to the holy spots in the high Himalayas. There were places called 'chatti' where they would halt for the night and move on the next day. The paths were never wider than six feet. It is time we returned to this practice by reversing the mantra 'mountains for the millions' to 'mountains for the enlightened ones only'.

Only those who are hardy and tough should be privileged to visit these spots. The rest should watch the shrines on their HD TVs. After all, we all cannot go to North and South Poles to savour their beauty. So why should we damage and spoil our sacred shrines?

No doubt every soul in the hills should enjoy the fruits of modern civilization like good roads, schools, hospitals etc but the basic contradiction is that once you have all that, you have to say goodbye to the solitude and serenity of the hills and invite more ecological disasters like soil erosion, floods etc.

In 1969, when I went to Kausani, there was no electricity there let aside any hotel. Today, it is a bubbly and noisy little town with all that one may wish to have. For me, the place is finished.

Just as restrictions have been placed in wildlife sanctuaries, strict rules should be framed that each shrine will take so many pilgrims a year and no more. That's it. No VIP quotas. Remove all hotels and dharamshalas at the shrines. Have a 'darshan' and back you go. I have been to Gangotri 12 times and on my last visit, the queue for parking on both sides of the road was 2km long. I am not going there in a hurry.
Exactly. These days, pilgrimage is nothing more than picnic
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by manju »

jamwal wrote:Upload it on a filesharing site and post link here
like? am sorry for this naive question.. Any links?
chaanakya
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

^^on imageshack.us
chaanakya
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

krishnan wrote: ....
When asked why, he said, “We don’t have it! We just don’t have it! It’s not there! All the areas are not covered anywhere in the world. In the June 19 meeting I asked them what was their plan for the next five years. I didn’t waste any time. I knew Uttarakhand is a warning that has come. The chief minister (Vijay Bahuguna) rightly said that with this kind of forecast (“very heavy rain”), what does he do? Could he build a bund behind the Kedarnath temple to stop it when he got the forecast on Sunday night? There was no precise warning even. They didn’t know, even, where it was going to happen. I am not finding fault with anybody. But, there were gaps in communicating the warning and how precise the warning has to be.” ....

All the Blocks in the country are equipped with Rain-gauge and reports are sent to District HQ for onward transmission to State and IMD. I am not sure , if and why, this practice has been discontinued. That is the basic weather data Rainfall ( in 24 Hr period from 5 PM to 5 PM and temperature (Max and Min) .

DM of Rudraprayag has much to answer for.
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Question to be asked is why is he going to Gangotri 12 times!
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

Baba Ramdev's Patanjali Sevashram at Narayan Koti, Gupta Kashi have started rehabilitation work from today. They are the first to start such activities. They are step ahead and have already identified 65 villages which are severely affected. Govt is yet to complete survey of affected village which stands at 49 today.

Patanjali Sevashram will provide holistic rehabilitation package to all affected. They have started with 50 such people from today, that includes orphans and widows. Today they distributed a package consisting of all the material that is required to start life again with consumables that can last for at least one month. They will provide education to all the children affected and work to all the affected families.

They are doing this work very systematically..

***

Sevashram volunteers will distribute rehabilitation packages to people in far flung village, either by foot or on ponies.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Question to be asked is why is he going to Gangotri 12 times!
Exactly.

Though I agree that pilgrimage should be on foot or ponies after one leaves Joshimath. So many lives are dependent on tourism and other adventure activities. Very few can afford one visit to gangotri, time and money wise it is not easy.
Last edited by Murugan on 01 Jul 2013 21:16, edited 1 time in total.
Murugan
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

Cloud burst and heavy rain in isolated areas cannot be measured, it is impossible but there are other ways and means, satellites, river water current, remote weather stations etc. It is difficult to provide necessary power to remote weather stations in such areas like deep himalayas.

Moreover, himalayan hill ranges' climate is very local, at one side of range it is raining heavily while other ranges few km away have bright sunlight.

+ For every pilgrim visiting himalaya, they must plant a tree, charging nominal amount to pilgrims, give a certificate to pilgrims and bring the forest density to pre-british rule. Wherever possible, above tree lines, wherever grass cover has been lost should be re-grassed. Dehradoon has a national forestry college and such institutions. + Involve large number of ex-servicemen available in UK in afforestation and manning weather stations. (if 200 Ex servicemen can plant lacs of trees and can change the micro-climate of Dehradoon/mussorie hills, what committed 50000 can achieve)
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by vasu raya »

Murugan wrote:Cloud burst and heavy rain in isolated areas cannot be measured, it is impossible but there are other ways and means, satellites, river water current, remote weather stations etc. It is difficult to provide necessary power to remote weather stations in such areas like deep himalayas.
some hope here,

London taps into the Thames for river power

Image
(Contra-Rotating Marine Turbine), performs mechanically and effects the river’s ecosystem. Positioned in arrays, the turbines are tethered to a buoy and an anchor rather than implanted into the riverbed. The largest arrays, according to Nautricity, can generate 500 kilowatts.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

Murugan wrote:Cloud burst and heavy rain in isolated areas cannot be measured, it is impossible but there are other ways and means, satellites, river water current, remote weather stations etc. It is difficult to provide necessary power to remote weather stations in such areas like deep himalayas.

Moreover, himalayan hill ranges' climate is very local, at one side of range it is raining heavily while other ranges few km away have bright sunlight.
Raingauge and Max-Min thermometer are simple devices and need no power.

Here is photo of one such station. I have seen even simpler ones.

Image

And yes it can record cloud bursts which is nothing but unusual amount of rain falling in the area. Localised effect are certainly there as you rightly pointed out.

However having some rain data in the area is better than having no data at all.
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

There is a network of automated weather stations.
http://www.imdaws.com/

Still the only thing that would have mattered is proper Doppler radar coverage, available to all people.
It is better if folks are able to monitor the situation and look out for themselves.
DM should not have to interfere with public affairs unless data is concrete.

Just 2 weeks before this event there was a long series of posts on BRF moaning about the pitiful Doppler radar coverage of India.
For instance not a single one in Kerala. Then this happens…..
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

Chanakya-ji

All the apparatus need to be networked.

***

Remote Wireless/Cabled Weather Stations are highly recommended. They can provide crucial data to connected hub at regular intervals. It is very difficult to man weather stations at high altitude.

***

Looks ISRO has given all the necessary info about cloud burst to UK govt. Aaj Tak is showing copy of documents also.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

Theo garu, that is a later development .

The Country has thousands of ground stations from which revenue dept/Irrigation dept collects daily rainfall data and Rain Graph with Max-min temp and sent up . Not sure if all of them are working. It would be presumtuous on my part to even suggest that Chorabari area would have such a station. It would not have But Rudraprayag would have.

DM is the key point man of the Govt in District and he has everything to do with Public affairs. Of course Revenue Dept is now renamed as Revenue and Disaster management. They are the key persons to coordinate warning, evacuation , relief and later rehabilitation. They are the persons to inform , in case of warning or natural calamity, the public as well as support other agencies. Make provision for emergency and keep stock in readiness.. They are charges with preparation of District Disaster Management Plan and conduct Drills. Obviously it is not a one man job but his seriousness and leadership shows. He has to ask Army and NDRF and alert them well in advance. He has enough power and authority delegated to take decision and has funds at his disposal. And it is his job to ascertain concrete data and his team is on the spot while others are watching from afar.

Of course folks are better to look out for themselves. Tourists from Outside areas are not equipped with local knowledge and cant be expected unless warned and asked to reach safer places. No such warning was given as I understand now.

Of course Doppler coverage is another saga altogether and we would be paying price for such terrible decision making process.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

Murugan wrote:Chanakya-ji

All the apparatus need to be networked. .
These are non electrically operated equipments, One needs to take readings and send reports. That is old fashioned way. Of course networked solution is better but sometimes man on the spot can decide just by knowing rainfall data collected from such stations within easy reach of Taluk/Block ( Just in front of offices) coupled with forecasting from IMD which could decide fate of thousands. Similarly River level data is give by simple gauge constructed by Irrigation Dept along the Rivers.

But all data has to be read by Men and interpreted and course of action decided by Men only. No amount of networking can help if Man on the spot cant take a decision.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by chaanakya »

Incidentally Rudraprayag Station in the Link provided by Theo garu is not showing data.

These AWS are in District HQ
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by jamwal »

manju wrote:
jamwal wrote:Upload it on a filesharing site and post link here
like? am sorry for this naive question.. Any links?

4shared.com

mediafire.com

dropbox.com

hotfile.com and many more

You may have to create an account first
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by ramana »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Question to be asked is why is he going to Gangotri 12 times!

The article says he is porfessional photographer and has published 23 books. That might be reason to photograph the Himalayas.
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

The days of the clue less traveler are long past us IMO.
Many farmers in my area follow the IMD data religiously. If not they check with someone who does.
If you put the Doppler data online a large subset of regular folks will know very quickly.
Those folks will usually notify and inform friends/relatives/neighbors, etc.
Some amount of self-responsibility has to be there.
Folks are going into dangerous remote valleys with old folks who can barely walk and
completely out of shape week end types. No preparations were made for surprises.
All we hear is demands to be rescued.

Middle class must show at least a modicum of preparation and awareness.
If you notice the dirt poor locals, who were devastated,
quietly walked to the nearest town and are slowly rebuilding their lives.
-----------------------------------------------

Ramana,

Thanx. IMO that makes it even more tragic. Fellow has spent all this time marketing the place but not educating folks to be organized and sensible.

Still IMO UK is a massive state, bigger than Switzerland.
The swiss get 50 million visitors and manage quite well because folks get charged for the high expenses of providing lodging, food and travel in such a remote area.
UK too should charge people what it costs to keep the place pristine.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 02 Jul 2013 02:06, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by ramana »

While it is true that restricting the number of pilgrims could and would have reduced the causlaties, UttaraKhand will still have been subject to heavy infrastructure damages. Its a unique once in a long time heavy rain and floods. The best thing is to have planned infrastructure and not allow iidescriminate rebuilding and keep tpalce pristine.

Meanwhiel Pioneer has two reports:

Inching towards the end of rescue efforts.

Inching towards end


1 July 2013

With more than 600 pilgrims evacuated on Sunday from Badrinath, the rescue operations are nearing completion in the flood-hit Uttarakhand as the remaining 400 pilgrims in Badrinath will be brought out by road and air on Monday.

The Army and IAF have already evacuated all pilgrims from other affected places including Kedarnath, Joshimath, Yamunotri and Harsil.The IAF deployed 20 helicopters and flew more than 140 sorties over the last two days to bring out more than 1,500 pilgrims including 680 on Sunday.

According to the State Government, there is no cause to worry about the remaining pilgrims in Badrinath as they have adequate food and medical care. They will be brought by road to Joshimath by the Army on Monday.

The focus is now on providing relief material like food and blankets to locals in far off places inaccessible due to damaged roads. Reconstructing infrastructure including roads is also going to be the thrust area. The other important task was to retrieve dead bodies after clearing the debris and prevent outbreak of any epidemic.

Though scaling down its aircraft deployment from next week, IAF helicopters will ferry relief material to remote areas for the next 15 days as per State Government directions, officials said here on Sunday.

Having deployed nearly 50 aircraft and helicopters when the rescue operations were in full swing, the IAF at present has stationed 30 helicopters. Starting a phased de-induction next week, the IAF will place six to seven helicopters at the State Government’s disposal for the next one month. IAF and Army helicopters flew more than 2,500 sorties since the disaster struck the State on June 16 and airlifted more than 30,000 pilgrims.

Moreover, the IAF ferried 3,24,930 kg of relief material and construction equipment. The Army pressed into service more than 8,000 soldiers for rescue operations and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) deployed nearly 3,000 personnel in some of the worst affected areas
.

Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna said a 200-member team consisting of officials of various departments, including police, health, animal husbandry experts and sanitation, was now on its way carrying equipment provided by the National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF) to both Kedarnath and Rambada to extricate the bodies from the debris and expedite the process of their disposal.

The cremation of those killed in Rambada at the foot hills of Kedarnath shrine too was likely to start in a couple of days, he said in Dehradun after reviewing the ongoing rescue and relief operations.

“Clearing tons of debris lying in the affected areas and extricating decaying bodies which may be lying under them is our top-most priority at the moment,” DGP, Uttarakhand Satyavrat Bansal said.

“34 bodies have already been cremated in Kedarnath shrine area while 55 to 60 more which are visible on the ground are yet to be cremated and the process will be taken up on a war footing by a rescue team considering the threat of an epidemic outbreak 15 days after the calamity,” he said.

On reaching essential supplies to villages, officials said many roads were breached and this factor hampered relief operations. 274 trucks carrying food grains and other essentials have been dispatched to about 16 affected locations in the worst-hit Rudraprayag, Chamoli and Uttarkashi districts.

On the issue of giving compensation to missing people of his State, the Chief Minister said the district authorities were on the job and compensation will be given on fast track.

According to an estimate more than 3,000 people are missing since the flash floods struck the State on June 16. “After taking into consideration all the missing person reports lodged in this State, I have been told that the number of those missing is around 3,000,” Bahuguna said. Regarding those hailing from other States, Bahuguna said they should lodge complaints in their State, he said.

“If the States confirm to Uttarakhand that people from their States had come on pilgrimage here and that these number of pilgrims should be presumed to be dead and have not come back, we will accept their version and the compensation amount will be paid to respective chief secretaries for distribution to victims of the respective States,” he said.

Facing the huge task of rehabilitation, the Chief Minister said there were more than 200 villages where there is no connectivity and these have to be rehabilitated. While construction of roads will take time, the State Government will ensure that mule tracks are ready within a week to restore connectivity to some extent, he said.

and

Dispute over death toll
Dispute over death toll
Monday, 01 July 2013 | PNS/Agencies | Dehradun

There was still no clarity over the number of deaths in the flood-ravaged Uttarakhand, with a State Minister on Sunday not ruling out an “estimated toll” of 10,000-plus in the tragedy.

Uttarakhand Health Minister Surinder Singh Negi did not discount State Assembly Speaker Govind Singh Kunjwal’s claim but said 10,000 was just an estimate.

With questions being raised if the mayhem could have been averted, the Met Department claimed that it had issued ‘timely’ warnings of heavy rains and landslides while the Uttarakhand Government claimed there was not enough prior intimation.Meanwhile, there are reports of survivors running from pillar to post to claim the immediate relief amount of Rs 2,000 for the last five days.

Many of the rescued pilgrims cannot pay their way back home as they have lost everything to nature’s fury. “We’re penniless, how can we proceed unless we are given the relief amount?” 55-year-old survivor Mahendra Singh asks.

Survivors said they have not been able to get the relief cash allegedly due to irregularities in its disbursement. They said some officials entrusted the responsibility of distributing the money have been trying to embezzle the fund.

However, the State Administration is asserting that there has been no bungling in the disbursal of funds meant for the survivors.

IAS officer Ranjeet Sinha, in-charge of giving out the relief amount, denied any such irregularities saying the question of survivors being denied the amount does not arise. “Survivors may be stuck for want of money but they will never be denied what is due to them”, said Sinha.

A senior officer in Dehradun admitted that many survivors could not proceed further due to delay in payment, but assured that it is being ensured that each one gets the relief amount before leaving for their home States.

Meanwhile, the controversey over the death toll refuses to die down. While, State Assembly Speaker Govind Singh Kunjwal caused a flutter on Saturday with his claim of the death toll having crossed 10,000, Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna termed Kunjwal’s claim as ‘inaccurate’.

However, Uttarakhand Health Minister Surinder Singh Negi said, “Kunjwal has given an estimated figure. It is an estimate that can go up or down. It is too early to give the exact number of deaths.”

“We have so far cleared the 14-km pedestrian route from Gaurikund to Kedarnath. But there are many bodies that are still buried under mounds and mounds of debris. These bodies are trapped under five to ten feet of debris. We need to clear them. Once we clear them, we will be in a position to give the (exact) toll figure,” Negi said.

“We will get an exact number after counting the bodies and by adding the missing persons reports filed by the people whose near and dear ones are untraceable. We are taking the DNA of each body,” he added.

“Our first priority is to dig out the bodies, and the second is to restore the entire route. Third is to see that there is no outbreak of epidemic. We are monitoring the situation. So far, there is no fear,” Negi said.

But Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde clarified that the toll was 900 according to the information with him. He added that the complete figure was not out and it would take some time[/b].

Hope it is not as high as they expect. Even during the Latur plague in 1993, there were wildly exaggerated number of deaths which came down by a factor of four.
Eg. Claimed was a~ 40,000 deaths and the actual was slightly over 10,000.

Folks maybe some of our computer programmers can develop an Android app for IMD data?
Prasad
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Prasad »

So ISRO predicted a cloudburst 16 hours before the actual disaster and sent it to the NDMA and state government. And as usual, the pan chewing fellows said kal dekhlenge and went home.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/no-c ... 86374.html
Bade
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Bade »

There is a DRDO snow and avalanche research lab in the hills. We have not heard anything from them in open publications post this event.

If you look at some of the pics posted earlier (blog site) from Landsat, between May and June, long before the event the snow cover actually increased in the Spring or early summer. Followed by heavy rains or mixed precipitation in mid June when average temperatures are well above the melting point turned disastrous for the region.

If the precipitation would have been limited to the lower reaches then it could have been avoided. Afforestation can play a part to tilt it towards this outcome slowly as mentioned before by others. It remains to be seen how many high precipitation events have occurred in the past years in the glacier region. Satellite data and ground measurements even if sparse will help in this analysis. All these will be important to model the hydrological forcing of such events even if relatively rare.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by ramana »

I opened a thread on UttaraKhand Reconstruction and Rehabilitation efforts. Please continue to discuss the disaster aspects here.
Thanks, ramana
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Kedarnath is above the tree line IIRC. Anything above 8,000-10,000 feet on earth is flirting with being Treeless due to permafrost conditions. Also the picturesque nature of the area is dependent on the grassy look.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

If afforestation can bring back snowfall after a gap of 17 years in mussoorie, bringing the glaciar back till 1 km distance of kedarnath is also not impossible.
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Bade »

Theo, what I meant to say was that the rampant denudation in the lower slopes ensures that the potential precipitation is not contained to the lower slopes alone in summer months. There is spill over into the rain shadow areas and into the glacier when the temperatures are generally warmer, which accelerates the ice melt and increases the downstream flow. Ideally the precip over the glacier should be limited to winter months, so that the snow pack grows as a layer, and there is enough time to compaction and to stabilize before a melt happens. In this way the glaciers can be restored to their old areas and slower rate of melt in summer months will keep the downstream rivers perennial. If the glaciers do rapid melting climate change induced, then all these rivers in the north will run dry except when it rains in summer with catastrophic floods. The right balance is lost.
Theo_Fidel

Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Hmm! Not to be argumentative but trees don't directly cause rain. What they do is accelerate the water cycle by transpiring and pumping moisture into the air thereby raising the dew point. This means that rain clouds can form at lower temperatures. But this is a very localized and marginal effect compared to the global scale of the monsoon. The Monsoon winds however are already 100% saturated with moisture. The monsoon current is 15,000 feet thick. The moisture is being swept all the way from the Phillipine sea and beyond. All that moisture is diverted to India to cause the monsoon. At best the trees can influence the bottom 100 feet. There would have been a cloud burst with or without trees.

this claim of trees causing snow should be taken with a pinch of salt...
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Lalmohan »

i dont think that forest cover will increase glaciation - those will move due to forces that are WAY beyond our control. forested slopes will mean, more water and soil retention in the hills - and less hurtling down the valleys to the north indian plains. if we want to reduce devastating flooding in bengal and bihar, we had better start paying attention to the himalayan forests
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by jamwal »

Not an expert, just 2 paisa opinion.

Some regions of Jammu which used to experience good snowfall few decades back, now receive remarkably less and erratic snowfall after so-called 'development' over the years. Patnitop, Sanasar for example
My grandparents say that Tawi river used to have fish in it, but even a frog is an endangered specie these days. Both are just anecdotal, so I can't really put anything on the line. But the river is dead for sure and I find it surprising that it ever had any life.



Even if trees don't grow past 4000, meters, their importance in protecting the eco-system, rivers and controlling weather is undeniable. By the way, there are shrubs and even trees which grow well in high altitudes.
One is Chaturbhuj. According to legends, Valimiki wrote Ramayan on it's bark. Then there are various shrubs/herbs etc which not only check soil erosion. but also can be harvested for multiple uses like medicines, incense and much more. One just has to be careful about not introducing foreign species.

The effect of cramming lakhs of people in to these fragile mountains can't be overstated. You wouldn't believe the stink a bunch of mules cause. People then dump all the refuse in to rivers and the very mountains they believe are homes of their gods. People who need paalkis, mules and helicopters for pilgrimage should rather stay at home. Budaape mein hi bhagwaan yaad aayega
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Re: India & Natural Disaster Management

Post by Murugan »

We need to re-forest atleast the lost forest in last 100 years IF we want

Perennial rivers
Cloudbursts' deadly effects to be mitigated as tree leaves slow down intensity of rains
More fishes
More timbers
More forest produce
More eco-ecotourism
More birds and wildlife (this will also generate employment)
To provide more employment
To preserve precious soil
To bring down temperature and hence slow down snow melting
+ bring back snow fall wherever it has stopped falling
and alas bring glaciers back to their position 50 years ago
(we can add pinches of salt on ice to further slowing the melting of glaciers)

All other measures are very important but local ecology and economy depends on rich forests, especially in Himalayas.
Last edited by Murugan on 02 Jul 2013 16:18, edited 2 times in total.
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