Bharat Rakshak

Industrial growth QTE ending Jan was 1.1 percent. There was an error in data collection.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/article3307004.ece



1.1 percent is absolutely pathetic... they published wrong data presumably from wrong figures from Sugar producers.

^^ or maybe deliberately done for the sake of upcoming elections!!

India to allow FDI from Pakistan

Does pakis have money to invest in a direct manner.

Gunjur, it is part of the plan to help paki elite exit that hellhole. Everybody knows that pakistan is going to be flushed down the drain soon. Hence, the rats are abandoning the sinking ship.

First they abandoned India for pakistan, now they abandon pakistan for India.

^^^^
Yes! And this insistent demand for long term visa's is part that. Soon there will be weepy sob stories about how RAPE are being denied naturalization options and how their cute children are being forced to suffer as they are sent back after visa expiry, etc.

What plan is this helping the same people who plot against us. No wonder we are suffering the way we are.

So the total trade merchandise trade is at $785 billion inline with earlier estimates.
Barring a catastrophe our total merchandise trade will exceed a trillion dollars within the next 2 years.

Total merchandise trade for the year FY 2012-13 could be in the $925 - $975 billion range.
Imports will continue to grow at a brisk pace, the challenge is to sustain the recent momemtum with respect to exports.

How much was the Gold Import ?
Gold is darn double edged sword now. Better than holding the currency but adding to the deficit in short term.

Dear GoI,

When are we getting 100% FDI in defence, aviation, retail etc etc. FDI from Pakistan can wait.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/reuters/news/32030

India launches WTO case against U.S. steel duties
Thu, 12/04/2012 - 15:05
GENEVA (Reuters) - India has launched a trade dispute to challenge U.S. duties on certain steel products, the World Trade Organization said on its website on Thursday.

The WTO gave no details but said India had "requested consultations" with the United States - the first stage of a formal trade dispute - over U.S. countervailing duties. Countries impose countervailing duties to offset another country's subsidies suspected of giving an unfair trade advantage.

India will be a $10-12 trillion economy in 10-15 years

Expecting the rupee to strengthen in the year ahead, Shankar Sharma, Chief Global Trading Strategist, First Global, told ET Now that FY13 may not be a good year for IT companies. Commenting on the Infosys results that were announced on Friday, Sharma said that the management of the company was a matter of concern.

Asked about his outlook for the rupee, Sharma said that it may fall to Rs 44-45 per dollar. Sharma expects India to become a $10-12 trillion economy in 10-15 years. Sharma told ET now that global slowdown fears continue to exist and that NYMEX oil may slip to $65-70.

He was also critical of certain tax provisions announced in the Budget. Excerpts of the interview:

ET Now: A section of stocks like HUL, ITC are trading at new highs, 22% PAT growth expected in the quarter. What do you do with them and the inherent strength that there is in these stocks?

Shankar Sharma: The way we see it is that India is going to be a $10-12 trillion economy in the next 15 years' time or even less perhaps. If that is the case, then consumption is the only way India will grow to those levels by way of GDP because as I have said many times, India does not have to be aspiring to be China, in fact it should not be.

Our model is great, our model is low capital intensity, high consumption oriented. That is what leads to a sort of low debt to GDP growth number year after year, unlike China which keeps increasing it year after year. So our growth model is very robust. Arguably it is a best growth model of any major economy in the world. Why would we want to change that?

So if consumption is the reason why India will grow to that level and it has grown precisely because of consumption, then you have to really bet on consumption theme. It is a no-brainer and it is hardly rocket science to say this.

If you think about it, if you just exit from the domestic airport terminal now, just look at the number of stores and the cafes and even a lounge bar etc. out there in that small area, just outside the terminal. 15 years back, there used to be nothing. You just got into your car and went home. Now you can actually spend, you can sit around there while waiting for your car to come, buy yourself a nice cup of coffee and have a beer.

India has been hungry for consumption, there was nothing to feed that. Now you are feeing that, people are spending money. So all this might sound motherhood and apple pie but fact of the matter is that it is consumption that you have to bet on, whether it is consumption through the MNC route, or the FMCG route or durables like cars etc.


.
.
.
.
.
..

Assuming the above is true, in about 10 years we will have a nominal per capita of about 5k-6k $ and a PPP level of around 13-15k $. That puts us at the current Russkie levels which isn't bad. Given that we have a better gini coefficient than China we should see pretty good levels of poverty alleviation. All this wont happen without able support from the government. The govt coming in 2014 must have a strong majority and not go into a policy paralysis as now.

Consumption is all well and good, but since consumption leads to an increasing trade deficit, how does the economy escape the trap it faced during Rajiv Gandhi's regime that culminated in the 1991 BoP crisis?

IMHO, Our lack of focus on manufacturing has resulted in the current scenario where there is a talk of BOP crisis again what with the increasing rupee. This is not to mention that somehow there was some form of focus on the services sector. The services sector came up in spite of the govt and the manufacturing sector hasnt come up because of the govt. We import some 40-50 billion dollars worth of electronics and an equivalent amount in machinery. Now why is that? These should have ideally been manufactured at home. A flawed labour policy and pathetic infrastructure is to blame.

If we are to be a consumption driven economy, the suppliers have to be domestic ones or we will stare at a BoP crisis.

Sharma is not off the mark.. at 15% cagr this is expected .. But the current model will lead to inflation.. How does he expect a positive BOP without increasing manufacturing ? Thing is that Indian poor will only be able to afford an LCD if it is manufactured in India..

Kerosene subsidies will have to be phased out .. At least if the village has electricity , kerosene should not be subsidised in that village .. That is how we can reduce oil demand somewhat.

IMHO we have to increase are manufacturing exports because there is no way we ll be able to rein in on gold/oil demand... So the "Low capital intensive , consumption oriented" is Djinn economics onlee....

Govt can rein in inflation due to supply side inefficiencies by some pro-active governance. But we cannot avoid inflation due to the general wage increases across all fronts? For example (just pulling numbers from air), the same labourer who may have charged 5 rupees to offload a sack from a lorry 5 years ago may today charge 8 rupees. Accounting for inflation there is still some gain, this is a genuine wage increases brought about by a. demand for labour b. overall increase in nation's wealth and living standards. As we continue to grow and living standards grow up there is bound to be inflation, the govt can do nothing about this aspect. Gurus can correct me.

India has 50% chance of becoming emerging miracle economy


A good article focusing on how we could go wrong with our success story if we are not careful and decisive, the usual make-westerner-happy-by-saying-we-are-like-this-onlee rubbish about deadlines and "high context" notwithstanding.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/fd ... an/936995/

FDI in services up 62% in April-Jan

New Delhi: Uncertain economic conditions in the western markets are working to India's advantage when it comes to foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the services sector, which went up by an impressive 62 per cent during April-January last fiscal.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/rb ... le/936994/

New Delhi: Ahead of monthly inflation data and the RBI's monetary policy review, stock markets are likely to be volatile in an action-packed week that will witness Q4 corporate earnings of blue-chips like Reliance Industries, analysts have said.
Investors are keenly looking forward to the central bank's monetary policy review and it could be one of the trend-setters for the week ahead besides developments in the overseas markets, they added.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/rb ... rs/937000/

New Delhi: Amidst sagging factory output and moderation in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cut interest rate by about 0.25 per cent and release more liquidity to stimulate economic growth in its annual credit policy on Tuesday.
"My personal stance is that cut CRR...I would expect 75 basis point cut in CRR," SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri said.

Amongst other things in the newsite , there will be a downward revision of the GNI data of the previous fiscal ,in view of the corrections in the January IIP numbers..

Apart from the intended economic content..the Great Indian Rope Trick has never been proven a Hoax. It has only been claimed as one. All Magic is largely an illusion. The part about throwing a rope in the air and standing straight still has not been replicated even by science. There are You Tube videos that show magicians doing the same. So the eagerness to claim side with a White claiming it's a hoax is absurd. Inferiority thread case? Indeed IMHO.

What no one talks is village congestion that prevents farmers living in the village innards from taking any other profession apart from peasantry. That electricity can never be got into village innards as long as it remains congested. That modern sewage systems can never be got into village innards as long as congestion remains. A very basic vital area suffering from basic callous neglect.

There is a convergence of short/medium term US goals with long term Indian goals - the vivisection of pakistan

US has decided that its long term interests (access to central asia) are going to be served better by separating baluchistan and making its bases there. This means that the 60 year long british-sponsored pakistan project is going to be abandoned. It will be divided into 3-4 parts.

Wonder how they will handle the nukes pakistan is supposed to have?

The nukes are of course a problem. However if, inshallah, vivisection occurs Unkil will be forced to deal with that problem. Splitting up Poakistan should be India's overriding goal. This is not an unattainable goal.

India could lose World Bank soft loans; Middle-income tag to make it ineligible for IDA funding

This was something that was discussed at length here in BR. Graduating up the economic scales would mean up drying out of loans we earlier obtained easily from our poor nation status.

NEW DELHI: World Bank has informally told India that its rapidly-growing economy may soon make it ineligible for soft loans, prompting the government to lobby for concessional lending for a few more years.

India stands to lose over $2 billion in low-interest funds for many of its welfare schemes, besides missing out on social initiatives spearheaded by the Washington-based lender over the previous decade. "We expect India to move into the middle income category of countries in the next two years. This will mean that the IDA ( International Development Association) funding India got last year was the last cycle of such funding for the country," said a senior World Bank official.

The bank lends to developing countries under two arms - IDA and International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). IDA funds are highly concessional or interest-free loans and grants aimed at improving living conditions of the poorest.

India is currently a blend country

IBRD funds infrastructure projects in middle-income and creditworthy low-income countries at interest rates higher than those provided by IDA but lower than those offered by other commercial lending agencies.

India is currently classified as a "blend" country - defined as one in transition from lower middle-income to middle-income - and is creditworthy for lending from both IDA and IBRD. In 2010, India's per capita national income stood at $1,330, which is higher than the operational eligibility cutoff of $1,175 per capita income.

The finance ministry, which is lobbying with the bank, has argued that though per capita income has risen, India has the highest number of poor and should, therefore, continue to get IDA support, an official said. According to official estimates, India has more than 350 million people below the poverty line.

Last July, the World Bank board approved $1 billion for the National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) - an ambitious livelihood guarantee scheme launched in 2011 under the rural development ministry. The bank is helping 13 poorest Indian states in building institutional systems before the scheme is scaled up at a national level in the next three-five years.

"We tried hard to get the funding for NRLM as we knew that getting IDA funding will not be possible after this. There is a huge demand for concessional lending from poorer countries, particularly in Africa," the official said. IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world's 81 poorest countries, of which 39 are in Africa. The bank is keen on extending funding to other poor countries in the region by cutting down on support to the ones that have progressed.

I was touring a part of rural Vellore distt in TN yesterday. KT and TN are in the grip of strong drought conditions, fields are parched, tanks are dry or very low and no farming is possible in this heat and dry conditions. vegetation looks like a forest fire came by....trees and shrubs have zero to 10% of leaves....monkeys are sticking close to whatever lucky or hardy trees exist near water with leaves in the hope of getting some fruit and seed. their young ones looks weak and scrawny, barely able to drag themselves after their mothers...

situation is same in bandipur-nagarhole-masinagudi-kabini region....only the uplands like gudalur-ooty belt, elagiri etc have some moisture and water albeit no rains there for months either ....

if this monsoon is poor, expect farm sector to be -ve growth and lots of farmer distress all across the country. hopefully the GOI will extend relief to all needy states and not play the SICKULAR card here also, denying relief to states not ruled by the INC like KT or TN...between them almost 20% of the land area of the country.

todays TOI shows the dichotomy - page2 has half of it devoted a blr dog show, and other half to a neglected municipal ward with water scarcity, clogged drains etc. in some areas people are sleeping with pots next to the water tap which runs in early hours only when power is switched on. I can imagine the vicious power cuts must be taking a toll on people's health also.

but none of this is important. if you listen to the gasbags on evening TV, there will be no discussion on this....there will be wordy debates and people's (kangaroo) courts on history syllabus, meaning of ROP, Aman ki Tamasha and Modi Modi Modi....

That is a very dis heartening report coming out of Vellore. And this is mid-April, Still 60 more days to go before monsoon. Maybe more protests for Kudankulam will help. I hope people are discussing about the IPL Modi, since discussing about Narendra Modi (in Surat, Gujarat people are complaining about high electricity bills after running their A/Cs all day) is anti-secular.

animal mortality must be terrible in the jungle. two weeks ago when climbing the hairpin bends of the masinagudi ghats to ooty, I saw a huge buffalo standing on side of road, munching on shrubs there.
right when we passed the creature, I realized it was no buffalo, but a full grown wild GAUR....would not expect his shy beast to leave deep cover and stand beside the road other than in extreme hunger.
Deer which used to be so common in bandipur road were hard to spot and herds much smaller....all camping near the water holes created by forest dept using borewells.

So you did not take the Gudalur route?

when we reached the fork wife proclaimed "daar ke aage jeet hai" and forced me, shivering in my undies into the masinagudi road. there was almost zero traffic so we made it alive without being forced off the road onto the rocks. my daughter vomited right after we cleared the forest check gate.

while coming back, we took the gudalur road which has to be one of the most scenic due to the neat coniferous forests and high grassland vistas. the road was good but very long compared to the masinagudi....at a few points, water from overhanging trees had gouged out vicious potholes. it took us a long long time via this route to reach mysore. my son vomited at some point in the middle.

So my Musharaf is safe ,

I still it would have taken a lot more time, distance and fuel compared to the Salem, Avinashi route.

Masnagudi route ~ 280KM
Gudalur Route ~ 320KM
Avinashi route ~ 390Km

Export figure of $300B puts us in the top 20 again, after several decades. It's been quite a growth. As a recap of recent history showing how we have tripled exports in 6 years:



The countries with exports between 300-400B are Spain, Taiwan, Switzerland, Belgium, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. If 2012-13 export goal of $350 billion is met and we retain the tag of the country with fastest export growth, we can overtake nearly all of them. Above $400B are re-exporters like Singapore/HK and commodity players like Canada and Russia [link]. The top 10 currently have exports in excess of $500B each.

^^^Well, iof we can treble exports again (in say 10 yrs instead of 6 this time owing to the high base effect, domestic governance issues and global conditions), then we're OK, I guess. However, the imports bill does threaten to treble in the usual 6 yr timeframe only, if not earlier. Subsidy rationalization cannot be putoff for a hole lot longer, I reckon.

Have you guys noticed the quality of Indian products is improving and helping export growth? Our total economic engagement with the world is now almost 1 Trillion Dollar if we include services. Even with the lowest guesstimate , it will exceed 2.5 Trillion mark in next 10 years.

Rising rural, urban wages aiding inflation: RBI report

A natural consequence of income growth across the nation. Dhaag acche hain. We cannot wish away inflation, its bound to flow rise in incomes but inflation brought about by supply side deficiencies is a scandal!

Everyone knows what needs to be done, but who in the govt will bell the cat ?

The deterioration of the current account deficit, the high and persistent inflation was solely due to the ability to pass through the high import landed cost of oil and specifically diesel and urea fertilizers. The fertilizer policy until now has been so stupidly criminal and created such perverse incentives against setting up new capacity that it opened up a massive demand supply gap, that resulted in massive imports at a time of very high global prices and handing it out at ridiculously low prices out, very similar to crude and of course, the padding and "cost plus" formulas and lack of genuine competition (the subsidy regime , which paid only PSU drove out Reliance, Essar and Shell nearly out of retailing) results in criminal waste, perverse incentive to switch to diesel all resulting in a vicious cycle of increasing subsidies and deficits and inflation.. And I am not even started on power subsidies.

This govt has simply shot itself in the foot. In UPA-I, the commies held the govt's feet to the fire and prevented sensible policies, but there was a strong tail wind and it could be overlooked. Now there is an economic crisis and the heat is singing.

And oh, the commies lost power in Bengal and Kerala and more importantly, they lost their grip on the govt's testimonials and no funds flowing to their "Hell, I care, spend baby spend, fiscal deficits be damned
" policy , and net result, Kerala and Bengal are bankrupt and are out with hat in hand begging for a debt restructuring /moratorium which is what Didi's tantrums are all about..

Oh.. give me money so I can continue to out do what the commies did.. and be more leftist than the left! The TMC govt seems to be a comedy..(notice the Fatwa against marrying any CPM supporter or the arrests for the cartoons).. It is a govt of no substance, but rather of a lot of hot air and sloganeering. Oh well, that is Bengal politics for you. Sloganeering passes for reality and as always, politics is the opium of Bengal.

does anyone have details on Bartania's export basket ... $500b is not a small amt.

What do you guys think of 0.5% decrease in rate by RBI?

The middle path? Just enough for banks to pass this .5% benefit to corporates who want to take loans and with absence of any CRR changes, not let more money into the economy to prevent fueling inflation?

Alcoholic spirits, pharmaceuticals, North Sea oil and hydrocarbon derived products (plastics etc) are substantial industries.

Regarding Indian imports, oil and gold prices are the primary wild cards. Net of oil, we run a trade surplus. Net of oil+gold, even more so. The existing spot crude prices are not themselves a barometer of our oil bill, since the current spot price is the marginal price of the latest barrel produced, not the average aquisition costs.

I hope we invest more in the K-G basin to ramp up local crude output during crude price spikes. Further, it might be useful to collaborate with Sasol to invest in Fischer-Tropsch coal-to-oil production capabilities to utilize our low quality coal that otherwise is not used by domestic power plants that prefer imported coal.