PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 19 Apr 2014 12:56

IMF Figures for 2013 GDP ( PPP ). China is 2.75 times that of India's and not 4-5 times as widely claimed here.

1 United States 16,799.7
2 China 13,395.4
3 India 5,069.2
4 Japan 4,698.8
5 Germany 3,232.6
6 Russia 2,556.2
7 Brazil 2,423.3
8 United Kingdom 2,390.9
9 France 2,278.0
10 Mexico 1,842.6

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 19 Apr 2014 18:50

subhamoy.das wrote:IMF Figures for 2013 GDP ( PPP ). China is 2.75 times that of India's and not 4-5 times as widely claimed here.

1 United States 16,799.7
2 China 13,395.4
3 India 5,069.2
4 Japan 4,698.8
5 Germany 3,232.6
6 Russia 2,556.2
7 Brazil 2,423.3
8 United Kingdom 2,390.9
9 France 2,278.0
10 Mexico 1,842.6

PPP shows China's economy is 2-3 times larger than India's

GDP shows China's economy is 4-5 times larger than India's

industry sales(autos,houses, household appliances..etc), the electricitiy comsumption, trade figures and transportation cargos show that China's economy is 7-10 times larger than indian's and even larger than USA's.

So, all depend on which figure you want to accept.

To me, industry sale( autos,houses,household appliance..etc) , the electricity consumption and feight cargo is much more persuasive than GDP or PPP ,because it directly tells you the economy scale and life quality while avoiding the distortaition of exchange rate.

After all, the people in poorer country usually can not afford more electricty ,autos,houses and househould appliance than richer ones.

India's population is almost equal to China's .

But the sale of autos,houses,steel,concrete is only 1/10 of China's, the consumption of electricty is also only 1/7 of CHina's. the trade amount is also only 1/10 of China's...

the above figures can tell you a lot of things.

BTW

in 1980s, the largest seaport in the world was Rotterdam which yearly feight throughput was larger than the combined one of all CHinese seaports.

But now, the 8 of global top 10 largest seaports are in CHina, except Singapore and Rotterdam.
Global top 10 largest seaport are Ningbo-Zhoushan,Shanghai,Singapore,Tianjin,Qingdao,Rotterdam,Guangzhou,Tangshan and Yingkou,,if ranked by yearly feight throughtout.
the yearly freight throughput of Shanghai is larger than the combined one of all indian seaports.

here is an old news about top 10 busiest seaports.....now the figures is somewhat outdated, Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai have both already surpassed Singapore .
http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-sh ... 111027.htm

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 19 Apr 2014 19:44

Lurker on this thread. First of all, let me welcome Liu and others here. These are complex issues being discussed and we are better off trying to understand them than imputing motives (drones, overlords etc.). From a very high level view, China has a few decades head-start in development and also the cultural advantages (politics, values of citizens). And, more importantly much more homogeneous than India in multiple ways (written language, genetics). I also find it very easy to believe that average Chinese IQ has atleast 5 to 10 point advantage; this has major implications. India has a much more diverse population and other advantages. Currently, it is obvious that China is a much better place for the average person to live in. Whether the X metric tells you it is 1:2 and Y metric tells 1:7, the ratio is all in the same direction and pretty big. Going forward India will need to take lessons from China's path and learn from that and vice versa. NaMo is likely to strengthen engagement with the East and China in particular.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 Apr 2014 19:46

Washington post had a recent article, which claimed lower sales for local brands even though the Auto sales have gone up in China and the party is really worried. Even the Chinese do not want to buy their superior products, and would rather buy Japanese and Korean. Cheverly, Geely etc are on the road to extinction it looks like.

If you want the details...
Chinese auto brands limp into Beijing show

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 19 Apr 2014 20:10

Bade wrote:Washington post had a recent article, which claimed lower sales for local brands even though the Auto sales have gone up in China and the party is really worried. Even the Chinese do not want to buy their superior products, and would rather buy Japanese and Korean. Cheverly, Geely etc are on the road to extinction it looks like.

If you want the details...
Chinese auto brands limp into Beijing show

the figure cited in the above articel is quite outdated and partial.
as a whole ,Germany/USA brand is still more popular than Japan/Korea and Chinese local brand in China.
however, in some particular sector (such as SUV and trucks),Chinese local brand is quite successful .

For example, the most popular SUV in CHina is H6 of The Great Wall auto.
http://www.gwm-global.com/all-vehicles. ... tegory=SUV

the truck market is also dominated by local brands.
the sale of Chery and Geely is still going up.

BTW,
China's GDP is just 60-70% of USA's

But the auto sales of USA's (16M in 2013) is just 60-70% of CHina's(22M in 2013)
the sale of steel/concrete/houses/food/household appliance in USA is also by far less than those in China
lots of key indicators ,such as the consumption of electricity, the feight cargo and trade figures, also shows that China's economy scale is larger than USA's.

GDP might the the only indicator showing USA's economy scale is still larger than CHina's.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 Apr 2014 20:12

Well, it is the relative demand which is an indicator of things to come.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 20 Apr 2014 00:05

The US economy is a mature economy. It's about efficacy and productivity for us. Electrical usage is about more efficiency per user. Everybody in the US has access to electricity and the myriad of things that it powers. Even poor people have this in the US. 24x7. Our appliances are designed to use *less* electricity not more. The average appliance electricity usage has gone *down* over the last 40 years. Same with gasoline usage with our cars. Our cars also last longer. When I was a kid, a car with 100,000 miles usage was essentially dead. Not any more.

So we in the US are not in a economy of "get the basics" like China. Our economy is more concerned about productivity, innovation, and efficacy there of.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 05:30

TSJones wrote:The US economy is a mature economy. It's about efficacy and productivity for us. Electrical usage is about more efficiency per user. Everybody in the US has access to electricity and the myriad of things that it powers. Even poor people have this in the US. 24x7. Our appliances are designed to use *less* electricity not more. The average appliance electricity usage has gone *down* over the last 40 years. Same with gasoline usage with our cars. Our cars also last longer. When I was a kid, a car with 100,000 miles usage was essentially dead. Not any more.

So we in the US are not in a economy of "get the basics" like China. Our economy is more concerned about productivity, innovation, and efficacy there of.

the following analysis of electrical usage might be more helpful for you to compare USA's economy and CHina's.

1. electricity consumption is one key indicator to metric economy scale. It is usually the largest economy that has the largest electricity consumption.
USA had been the global largest electrcity comsumer for over 100+ years. but after 2008, China replaced the postion.

2. China's per capita electric consumption is only 1/3 of usa and 50% of Japan's. it means the average life quality of CHina's is still obvioulsy lower than Yankee's and Japanese.

3. China's electricity powerhouses and grid is more modern and more efficient than USA's ,because most of China's electricty powerhouse and grid use last industry tech and recently built.
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4. most of electricity in CHina is used by industry sectors,while most of electricity in USA is used by service sector and people's daily life.
It means that China's industry scale is larger than USA's while people's daily life is not as modern as Yankees.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:12

World ranking by cars per capita.

91 India 148 2012[17]
92 Venezuela 147 2007[1]
93 Kiribati 146 2008[1]
94 Turkey 200 2012[18][19]
95 Botswana 133 2009[1]
96 Panama 132 2010[1]
97 Dominican Republic 128 2009[1]
98 Tunisia 125 2010[1]
99 Albania 124 2010[1]
100 Grenada 122 [20]
101 Zimbabwe 114 2007[1]
102 Algeria 114 2010[1]
103 Namibia 107 2010[1]
104 Turkmenistan 106 2008[1]
105 Armenia 103 2007[1]
106 Azerbaijan 101 2010[1]
107 Cape Verde 101 2007[1]
108 Honduras 95 2008[1]
109 Guyana 95 2008[1]
110 El Salvador 94 2007[1]
111 Swaziland 89 2007[1]
112 China 83 2012[21]

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:14

Per capita electricity consumption . China is 4 times not 7 times.

— World 19,320,360,620 2002-10 all sources 7,155,700,000 2014 313
001 China 5,245,100,000 2013 China Statistic Bureau [3] 1,363,820,000 2014 442
002 United States 3,886,400,000 2010 US DoE 317,848,000 2014 1402
— European Union 3,037,000,000 2009 CIA 503,492,041 2012 688
003 India 1,051,375,000 2012 MOSPI[4] 1,242,660,000 2014 90

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:20

Oil consumption ranking. China is 3 times of India ( not 10 times )!

1 United States 18,840,000 2011 est.
- European Union 12,800,000 2011 est.
2 China 9,790,000 2011 est.
3 Japan 4,464,000 2011 est.
4 India 3,292,000 2011 est

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:22

List of countries by cell phone consumption

01 China China 1,227,360,000[4] 1,349,585,838[5] 89.2 December 2013[4]
02 India India 1,104,480,000 1,220,800,359[6] 90.47 31 October 2013[7]

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:28

Gold consumption ranking ....

Gold jewelry consumption by country in tonnes[98][99][100]
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
India 442.37 745.70 986.3 864 974
Greater China 376.96 428.00 921.5 817.5 1120.1

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 20 Apr 2014 08:32

When it comes to production, China is 10 times ahead of India ( in steel and cement ) but when it comes to consumption it is a different story.

Steel production ranking
— World 1,351.3 1326.5 1,219.7 1,413.6 1,490.1 1552.9 1607.2
1 China People's Republic of China 494.9 500.3 573.6 626.7 683.3 724.7 779.0
- European Union 210.2 198.2 139.3 172.8 177.7 168.6 165.6
2 Japan Japan 120.2 118.7 87.5 109.6 107.6 107.2 110.6
3 United States United States 98.1 91.4 58.2 80.6 86.2 88.6 87.0
4 India India 53.5 57.8 62.8 68.3 72.2 77.3 81.2

Cement production ranking

1 People's Republic of China 2,300
2 India 280
3 United States 77.8

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 17:11

subhamoy.das wrote:World ranking by cars per capita.

91 India 148 2012[17]
92 Venezuela 147 2007[1]
93 Kiribati 146 2008[1]
94 Turkey 200 2012[18][19]
95 Botswana 133 2009[1]
96 Panama 132 2010[1]
97 Dominican Republic 128 2009[1]
98 Tunisia 125 2010[1]
99 Albania 124 2010[1]
100 Grenada 122 [20]
101 Zimbabwe 114 2007[1]
102 Algeria 114 2010[1]
103 Namibia 107 2010[1]
104 Turkmenistan 106 2008[1]
105 Armenia 103 2007[1]
106 Azerbaijan 101 2010[1]
107 Cape Verde 101 2007[1]
108 Honduras 95 2008[1]
109 Guyana 95 2008[1]
110 El Salvador 94 2007[1]
111 Swaziland 89 2007[1]
112 China 83 2012[21]

hehe,
1.there is wrong with your data ,obvioulsy.
in 2013, 22M autos were sold in CHina .
it means just in the past 7-9 years, Chinese have bought 100M autos.
it also means that in the coming 3-4 years, Chinese might buy another 100M autos..

at the same time. the auto sale in India is almost only 1/10 in 2013....
it means that India have to take 10 times more time to buy 100M autos.

how can india's per capita car rank ahead of China, with only 1/10 yearly auto sale of China???

2. the upgrade of autos is much faster and more strict in CHina than in many other developing Countries.

I once visited Combodia and found lots of second-handed old autos there..
In CHina,such seconded or old autos would have been sent to Dump as scrap long ago.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 17:21

subhamoy.das wrote:Per capita electricity consumption . China is 4 times not 7 times.

— World 19,320,360,620 2002-10 all sources 7,155,700,000 2014 313
001 China 5,245,100,000 2013 China Statistic Bureau [3] 1,363,820,000 2014 442
002 United States 3,886,400,000 2010 US DoE 317,848,000 2014 1402
— European Union 3,037,000,000 2009 CIA 503,492,041 2012 688
003 India 1,051,375,000 2012 MOSPI[4] 1,242,660,000 2014 90

if so, then congratulations for India's progress.

electricity consumption is a much more decisive and persuasive key indicator for industrializition and economy scale than GDP or PPP.

and per capita electricty consumption also directly reflects how modern the people's life is .

Generally speaking, the less the per capita electricity consumption is , the lower the people life quality is .

for example
In 1980s, China's per capita electricty consumption was only 1/30 of USA's and 1/15-1/20 of Soviet's and Taiwan's .
at that time,many of rural CHinese had not the available electricity supply and their life style was mid-age-like.

But now, CHina's per capita electricity consumption is about 1/3 of USA's and1/2 of Japanese. in fact it is already quite close to some moderate-industrialized economies such as Taiwan,Russia and Italy.
and almost all rural CHinese can get avaialbe elelctricty supply now and their life quality rapidly is catching up with industrialized society.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 17:30

subhamoy.das wrote:Oil consumption ranking. China is 3 times of India ( not 10 times )!

1 United States 18,840,000 2011 est.
- European Union 12,800,000 2011 est.
2 China 9,790,000 2011 est.
3 Japan 4,464,000 2011 est.
4 India 3,292,000 2011 est

oil is just one of energy,as well as coal ,gas and others...

total energy consumption(including oil,gas and so on) is the helpful indicator,instead of oil consumption.
after all, China is one of a few coal-based economy in the world while India is not.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 17:34

subhamoy.das wrote:List of countries by cell phone consumption

01 China China 1,227,360,000[4] 1,349,585,838[5] 89.2 December 2013[4]
02 India India 1,104,480,000 1,220,800,359[6] 90.47 31 October 2013[7]

one hand, it reflect that cell phone is a affordable in India and indian economy is progressing .

but on the other hand, cell phone is not a quite expensive items, after all.

the sale of some other items ,such as cars,AC,TV sets,washing machine,can reflect how modern the people life is .

why can people in developed countries live a higher life quality than developing countries?

simple case is that people in developed counties can afford cars, TV sets, washing machines and other modern toys much more easily than people in developing countries.

if the per capita sale of those modern toys catchs up with developed countries, then the life quality of people also has caught up with developed countries tool

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 20 Apr 2014 17:46

subhamoy.das wrote:When it comes to production, China is 10 times ahead of India ( in steel and cement ) but when it comes to consumption it is a different story.

Steel production ranking
— World 1,351.3 1326.5 1,219.7 1,413.6 1,490.1 1552.9 1607.2
1 China People's Republic of China 494.9 500.3 573.6 626.7 683.3 724.7 779.0
- European Union 210.2 198.2 139.3 172.8 177.7 168.6 165.6
2 Japan Japan 120.2 118.7 87.5 109.6 107.6 107.2 110.6
3 United States United States 98.1 91.4 58.2 80.6 86.2 88.6 87.0
4 India India 53.5 57.8 62.8 68.3 72.2 77.3 81.2

Cement production ranking

1 People's Republic of China 2,300
2 India 280
3 United States 77.8

almost 100% steels and cement produced in China is consumed by CHina itself.

BTW.

it is the historical steel accumulation ,instead of steel yearly production that reflects how modern one economy is .

For example,
USA's yearly steel production is only 1/10 of China's.

but since industrialization revolution, USA had been largest steel-producer for centuries and has acccumulated much more steel than CHina.

After all, CHina has been the largest steel-producer just in the past 20 years and the modernization of China (espeically the modernization of infrastructure) still need more steel and concrete.

once the per capita steel accumulation of China is close to USA, the modernaztion of CHina will also finished and CHina's demand of steel and cement will go down ,just like USA.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 23 Apr 2014 07:54

Liu wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:World ranking by cars per capita.

91 India 148 2012[17]
92 Venezuela 147 2007[1]
93 Kiribati 146 2008[1]
94 Turkey 200 2012[18][19]
95 Botswana 133 2009[1]
96 Panama 132 2010[1]
97 Dominican Republic 128 2009[1]
98 Tunisia 125 2010[1]
99 Albania 124 2010[1]
100 Grenada 122 [20]
101 Zimbabwe 114 2007[1]
102 Algeria 114 2010[1]
103 Namibia 107 2010[1]
104 Turkmenistan 106 2008[1]
105 Armenia 103 2007[1]
106 Azerbaijan 101 2010[1]
107 Cape Verde 101 2007[1]
108 Honduras 95 2008[1]
109 Guyana 95 2008[1]
110 El Salvador 94 2007[1]
111 Swaziland 89 2007[1]
112 China 83 2012[21]
hehe,
1.there is wrong with your data ,obvioulsy.
in 2013, 22M autos were sold in CHina .
it means just in the past 7-9 years, Chinese have bought 100M autos.
it also means that in the coming 3-4 years, Chinese might buy another 100M autos..

at the same time. the auto sale in India is almost only 1/10 in 2013....
it means that India have to take 10 times more time to buy 100M autos.

how can india's per capita car rank ahead of China, with only 1/10 yearly auto sale of China???

2. the upgrade of autos is much faster and more strict in CHina than in many other developing Countries.

I once visited Combodia and found lots of second-handed old autos there..
In CHina,such seconded or old autos would have been sent to Dump as scrap long ago.

Here is another link to chinese car per capita : http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3
as per this link it as around 70 in 2011 in line with the previous value of 83 per 1000

Madhusudhan · Post by **Madhusudhan** » 23 Apr 2014 16:34

Had a chance to visit 4 cities in China and it was very fascinating. Looking out of the high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai, I was able to get a perspective of the development pattern:
- The amount of money invested in infrastructure throughout is phenomenal and most of this appears to be high-quality infrastructure
- They went from 0 miles of High speed rail tracks to more High speed rail than all of Europe put-together in 5 years! By 2020, they plan to connect every city with more than 500,000 people. These trains travel at ~300 km/h
- Throughout the journey, I would see cities with nice, shiny high-rises, awesome roads and freeways, followed by shanty towns for a couple of miles, followed by a few coal power plants, followed by farmland. This pattern repeated itself for much of the journey.
- Slums & Poor people are kept out of sight/out of mind. Shanty towns are entirely isolated from the cities.
- Chinese cities have amazing infrastructure (Shanghai, especially Pudong can make US cities look third world) but are also highly polluted. Our eyes were burning for much of our time in Beijing because of the smog. I lost count of the number of cranes visible, building new high-rises.
- People in general were friendly and helpful and lots of younger people seem to be much more comfortable with English
- The attitude seems to be "development at any cost". Once they have development, they can then figure out how to clean up their air, etc..
- Beijing taxi drivers are like Chennai auto drivers: Lots of haggling

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 23 Apr 2014 18:20

subhamoy.das wrote:
Liu wrote: 1.there is wrong with your data ,obvioulsy.
in 2013, 22M autos were sold in CHina .
it means just in the past 7-9 years, Chinese have bought 100M autos.
it also means that in the coming 3-4 years, Chinese might buy another 100M autos..

at the same time. the auto sale in India is almost only 1/10 in 2013....
it means that India have to take 10 times more time to buy 100M autos.

how can india's per capita car rank ahead of China, with only 1/10 yearly auto sale of China???

2. the upgrade of autos is much faster and more strict in CHina than in many other developing Countries.

I once visited Combodia and found lots of second-handed old autos there..
In CHina,such seconded or old autos would have been sent to Dump as scrap long ago.
Here is another link to chinese car per capita : http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3
as per this link it as around 70 in 2011 in line with the previous value of 83 per 1000

well, the link is Motor vehicles (per 1,000 people)

here is a analysis ,which might help you understand it...

in 2012, 18M autos were sold by 1.35 billion CHinese . it means every 1000 CHinese bought 13,33 autos in 2013.

and the data you provided tell us that every 1000 Chinese has 83 autos in 2012...

so ,there is only two explainations:
1. before 2012, it took every 1000 CHinese decades to buy 70 autos(83-13.3).
2. one of the above two datas might be wrong.
3,with the current sale of autos, the indicator( auto per 1000 people) of CHina will catch up soon.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 23 Apr 2014 18:38

Madhusudhan wrote:Had a chance to visit 4 cities in China and it was very fascinating. Looking out of the high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai, I was able to get a perspective of the development pattern:
- The amount of money invested in infrastructure throughout is phenomenal and most of this appears to be high-quality infrastructure
- They went from 0 miles of High speed rail tracks to more High speed rail than all of Europe put-together in 5 years! By 2020, they plan to connect every city with more than 500,000 people. These trains travel at ~300 km/h
- Throughout the journey, I would see cities with nice, shiny high-rises, awesome roads and freeways, followed by shanty towns for a couple of miles, followed by a few coal power plants, followed by farmland. This pattern repeated itself for much of the journey.
- Slums & Poor people are kept out of sight/out of mind. Shanty towns are entirely isolated from the cities.
- Chinese cities have amazing infrastructure (Shanghai, especially Pudong can make US cities look third world) but are also highly polluted. Our eyes were burning for much of our time in Beijing because of the smog. I lost count of the number of cranes visible, building new high-rises.
- People in general were friendly and helpful and lots of younger people seem to be much more comfortable with English
- The attitude seems to be "development at any cost". Once they have development, they can then figure out how to clean up their air, etc..
- Beijing taxi drivers are like Chennai auto drivers: Lots of haggling

you obviously had no chance to visit those "shanty towns" ,which you think " is isolated from cities" .
so you are deliberately or liberately accept the case that poverty is hidden by Chinese government...
well, you are wrong.

fact is that the tide of modernization is penetrating into the grassroots class and lonely villages in CHina.

for example.

just 20 years ago, my home county was still a lonely poor county in inland CHina ,without 1 inch expressway. 90% of its 0.7 million population was peasants and lived on agriculture. its countytown was still a small town with only 50K population. it had few factories .

now, 80% of population here live on industry sectors and service sectors. its countrytown now is a mid-size city with 0.36 M population. railways and expressways are all over the county.

BTW,
railways here was built in 1996. expressways were built in 2004 or so.
in 2008 or so, village paths here also were upgrade to cement-paved ones.

Now, it is village houses that are being upgraded...

CCP government is giving subsidies for viilage upgrading....if peasants is upgrading their houses, every household peasant can get a subsidy of 2K-4K USD.

Madhusudhan · Post by **Madhusudhan** » 23 Apr 2014 19:32

Liu - No need to get defensive. Just pointing out my observation.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Apr 2014 04:46

Madhusudhan: very interesting observations. Please post more if possible.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 25 Apr 2014 10:41

Madhusudhan wrote:Liu - No need to get defensive. Just pointing out my observation.

glad to see that you know Supermetro 4(Beijing.Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen) are not all of China....

if you really want to show a true China to others, you should have visited some ordinary countytowns and villages in CHina....

then you would konw what happened,what is happening and what will happen in CHina.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 25 Apr 2014 12:59

Suraj wrote:Madhusudhan: very interesting observations. Please post more if possible.

+1.

Looking at things from our perspective can teach us many things.

Just curious about air quality issue. Do the Chinese people have issue with this?

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 28 Apr 2014 00:10

Liu wrote:
Madhusudhan wrote:Had a chance to visit 4 cities in China and it was very fascinating. Looking out of the high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai, I was able to get a perspective of the development pattern:
- The amount of money invested in infrastructure throughout is phenomenal and most of this appears to be high-quality infrastructure
- They went from 0 miles of High speed rail tracks to more High speed rail than all of Europe put-together in 5 years! By 2020, they plan to connect every city with more than 500,000 people. These trains travel at ~300 km/h
- Throughout the journey, I would see cities with nice, shiny high-rises, awesome roads and freeways, followed by shanty towns for a couple of miles, followed by a few coal power plants, followed by farmland. This pattern repeated itself for much of the journey.
- Slums & Poor people are kept out of sight/out of mind. Shanty towns are entirely isolated from the cities.
- Chinese cities have amazing infrastructure (Shanghai, especially Pudong can make US cities look third world) but are also highly polluted. Our eyes were burning for much of our time in Beijing because of the smog. I lost count of the number of cranes visible, building new high-rises.
- People in general were friendly and helpful and lots of younger people seem to be much more comfortable with English
- The attitude seems to be "development at any cost". Once they have development, they can then figure out how to clean up their air, etc..
- Beijing taxi drivers are like Chennai auto drivers: Lots of haggling
you obviously had no chance to visit those "shanty towns" ,which you think " is isolated from cities" .
so you are deliberately or liberately accept the case that poverty is hidden by Chinese government...
well, you are wrong.

fact is that the tide of modernization is penetrating into the grassroots class and lonely villages in CHina.

for example.

just 20 years ago, my home county was still a lonely poor county in inland CHina ,without 1 inch expressway. 90% of its 0.7 million population was peasants and lived on agriculture. its countytown was still a small town with only 50K population. it had few factories .

now, 80% of population here live on industry sectors and service sectors. its countrytown now is a mid-size city with 0.36 M population. railways and expressways are all over the county.

BTW,
railways here was built in 1996. expressways were built in 2004 or so.
in 2008 or so, village paths here also were upgrade to cement-paved ones.

Now, it is village houses that are being upgraded...

CCP government is giving subsidies for viilage upgrading....if peasants is upgrading their houses, every household peasant can get a subsidy of 2K-4K USD.

Well, I have been to villages and see that people are largely poor. Most people earn less then 3-5000 Rmb per month. With the increase of expenses, this can not really cover a modern flat. A lot of people live in semi bricked houses and things can be very shabby behind the fasade. I have travelled extensively within Guangdon, Fujian, and Shanghai (proximity) areas. You do not have to go far off from the large city, when you are in a area , without hotels, restaurants, taxis etc. The development in China is fantastic, no doubt about that. But it can not in any way be called a developed nation.

milanforever · Post by **milanforever** » 28 Apr 2014 17:16

Rishirishi wrote:The development in China is fantastic, no doubt about that. But it can not in any way be called a developed nation.

As a Chinese I agree with this. China has a long way to go to become a developed nation, political system aside.
Out of the countries I've lived in/visited, I'd say for average people's life quality (including the Western part of China which is less developed the coastal provinces), China fares better than Peru, Colombia but behind Poland, way behind first world countries such as the U.S, Canada and Germany etc. Personally I'll be happy if in 10 years time, people living in villages of Western part of China have a comparable life quality to the counterpart in Polish villages.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 28 Apr 2014 17:19

Rishirishi wrote:
Liu wrote:
you obviously had no chance to visit those "shanty towns" ,which you think " is isolated from cities" .
so you are deliberately or liberately accept the case that poverty is hidden by Chinese government...
well, you are wrong.

fact is that the tide of modernization is penetrating into the grassroots class and lonely villages in CHina.

for example.

just 20 years ago, my home county was still a lonely poor county in inland CHina ,without 1 inch expressway. 90% of its 0.7 million population was peasants and lived on agriculture. its countytown was still a small town with only 50K population. it had few factories .

now, 80% of population here live on industry sectors and service sectors. its countrytown now is a mid-size city with 0.36 M population. railways and expressways are all over the county.

BTW,
railways here was built in 1996. expressways were built in 2004 or so.
in 2008 or so, village paths here also were upgrade to cement-paved ones.

Now, it is village houses that are being upgraded...

CCP government is giving subsidies for viilage upgrading....if peasants is upgrading their houses, every household peasant can get a subsidy of 2K-4K USD.

Well, I have been to villages and see that people are largely poor. Most people earn less then 3-5000 Rmb per month. With the increase of expenses, this can not really cover a modern flat. A lot of people live in semi bricked houses and things can be very shabby behind the fasade. I have travelled extensively within Guangdon, Fujian, and Shanghai (proximity) areas. You do not have to go far off from the large city, when you are in a area , without hotels, restaurants, taxis etc. The development in China is fantastic, no doubt about that. But it can not in any way be called a developed nation.

well, few in CHina thinks CHina is a developed nation.

case is is that :
1.the real life quality varies much in CHina,
in some areas , real life quality can match moderate developed economies like Taiwan and South Korea
http://creative.sulekha.com/tuanjin-par ... 16012_blog
http://creative.sulekha.com/changsha-th ... 14908_blog
In some areas like Guizhou, the real life quality might be close to Southeast Asia and South asia.
http://creative.sulekha.com/xubing-s-tr ... 16632_blog

however ,in most areas of china, case is between two ,which might be close to Turkey and Iran.

2. it is strange that you think a salary of 3-5oooRMB(500-800USD)/per month is unacceptable to Chinese grassroot classes like peasant workers.....
Just one decade ago, those Chinese peasant workers who now earn 3-5000RMB(500-800USD)/per month might earn only 1000RMB(150USD)/per month.........the salary growth here deserves apprecations already.

Morever, as I know, the average monthly salary of Taiwan,a moderate developed economy is just 1000-1300USD/per month,while Taiwanese per capital GDP is 21K USD,about 3 times of China's.

lots of college graduates in EU also can earn only 700-1000 Euro/per month ,while EU's per capita GDP is 20-40K USD.

3.could you tell me in which Chinese city or county you could have such a rare expericence of "You do not have to go far off from the large city, when you are in a area , without hotels, restaurants, taxis etc. "

frankly speaking, a city or county without tax/hotel/restaurants is as rare as Pandas.

milanforever · Post by **milanforever** » 28 Apr 2014 17:31

Liu wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:3.could you tell me in which Chinese city or county you could have such a rare expericence of "You do not have to go far off from the large city, when you are in a area , without hotels, restaurants, taxis etc. "

frankly speaking, a city or county without tax/hotel/restaurants is as rare as Pandas.

This part that Rishirishi said is surely untrue.

Actually it's very hard to find a town, street in China where there is no restaurant. Leaving absolute number alone, the percentage of Chinese people who eat out (including economical/family restaurant) is high compared to other countries I stayed in, e.g. higher than in Canada and much higher than in Poland for sure.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 28 Apr 2014 18:24

Ding wrote:
Liu wrote:3.could you tell me in which Chinese city or county you could have such a rare expericence of "You do not have to go far off from the large city, when you are in a area , without hotels, restaurants, taxis etc. "

frankly speaking, a city or county without tax/hotel/restaurants is as rare as Pandas.

This part that Rishirishi said is surely untrue.

Actually it's very hard to find a town, street in China where there is no restaurant. Leaving absolute number alone, the percentage of Chinese people who eat out (including economical/family restaurant) is high compared to other countries I stayed in, e.g. higher than in Canada and much higher than in Poland for sure.

perhaps he was lost in The taklamakan great desert.

milanforever · Post by **milanforever** » 28 Apr 2014 18:59

Liu wrote:
case is is that :
1.the real life quality varies much in CHina,
in some areas , real life quality can match moderate developed economies like Taiwan and South Korea
http://creative.sulekha.com/tuanjin-par ... 16012_blog
http://creative.sulekha.com/changsha-th ... 14908_blog
In some areas like Guizhou, the real life quality might be close to Southeast Asia and South asia.
http://creative.sulekha.com/xubing-s-tr ... 16632_blog

however ,in most areas of china, case is between two ,which might be close to Turkey and Iran.

In my experience the comparison to Turkey is probably not far off from the truth.

In 2008 I drove from Bodrum the western costal city of Turkey, near Greece to Kayseri the middle of Turkey, then flew to Istanbul. I saw cosmoplitan city Istanbul , which to me is probably comparable to Shanghai. I also stayed in villages in the mountain and their life quality is quite similar to people in Chinese villages. Of course there are many cities/towns in between : not as developed as Istanbul, but decently developed.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 28 Apr 2014 19:09

Ding wrote:
Liu wrote:
case is is that :
1.the real life quality varies much in CHina,
in some areas , real life quality can match moderate developed economies like Taiwan and South Korea
http://creative.sulekha.com/tuanjin-par ... 16012_blog
http://creative.sulekha.com/changsha-th ... 14908_blog
In some areas like Guizhou, the real life quality might be close to Southeast Asia and South asia.
http://creative.sulekha.com/xubing-s-tr ... 16632_blog

however ,in most areas of china, case is between two ,which might be close to Turkey and Iran.

In my experience the comparison to Turkey is probably not far off from the truth.

In 2008 I drove from Bodrum the western costal city of Turkey, near Greece to Kayseri the middle of Turkey, then flew to Istanbul. I saw cosmoplitan city Istanbul , which to me is probably comparable to Shanghai. I also stayed in villages in the mountain and their life quality is quite similar to people in Chinese villages. Of course there are many cities/towns in between : not as developed as Istanbul, but decently developed.

1.per capita GDP is not a good indicator to metric real life quality.

CHina's per capita GDP is only 7K USD...

however ,in fact, because CHina's RMB is undervalued, CHinese real life quality is quite close to lots of 10K-15K(per capita GDP) economies ,such as turkey and Malysia.

the real life quality in many areas in CHina,such as Yangtsi River delta, Peral Delta and Inner mongolia can match moderate developed economies such as Taiwan and S.Korea.
Some countries, such as Mexico and Lybia, have a per capita GDP of 10K-20K,but their real life quality is far lower than CHina's

2. some other indicators,such as per capita electricity consumption,auto sale/per 1000 people and per capital food consumption ,might be a better one to metric real life quality.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 29 Apr 2014 17:51

well, here is a link,which shows how villiages in one unnamed Chinese county are being upgraded....

if you were able to read Chinese, you would learn more about how Chinese government manage urbanization of rural Chinese area.

http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-333-447491-1.shtml

then,what are Chinese ordinary villages like before they are upgraded???

here is a link,which shows villages in one unnamed county in Sicuan province...
http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-333-130210-1.shtml

IMHO,in CHina today, maybe 20-30% of CHinese villages has finished such upgrade,which mainly are in coastal CHina and some rich inland province such as inner mongolia.
maybe 50-60% of CHinese villages are being upgrade....
the rest has not start their upgrade yet...

once the upgrade of all Chinese villages are finished , China would be a moderate developed natiion and CHina's demand of steel and cement would decrease.

however, before such urgrade is finished, China's demand of steel and cement would keep roaring.
when peasants moved into the new houses, their demand of household applliances,autos and electricitys would increase much...
in fact, the upgrade itself is the industrialization and urbanization of CHinese rural area. once the upgrade is finished, the urbanization and industrialization of rural CHina would be fnished .

so,as long as the huge village upgrade campaign is not finished, CHina would keep growing much faster then developed economies .

Shankas · Post by **Shankas** » 29 Apr 2014 21:34

Liu wrote:well, here is a link,which shows how villiages in one unnamed Chinese county are being upgraded....

By upgraded you mean it now looks likes strip malls in the US and Canada. Completely devoid of any identity.

I really liked the pictures of the old villages.

Sad...

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 30 Apr 2014 04:22

This part that Rishirishi said is surely untrue.

Actually it's very hard to find a town, street in China where there is no restaurant. Leaving absolute number alone, the percentage of Chinese people who eat out (including economical/family restaurant) is high compared to other countries I stayed in, e.g. higher than in Canada and much higher than in Poland for sure

Well i mean of a good standard. The same goes for hotels and taxis. In rural area with less then 20 000 people, you will not find whole lot of services. 3-5000 RMB may sound good, but stuff just is not so cheap any more. A lunch in a ok eating joint will cost you from 50-100 RMB. Mobile tariffs, food etc is very expensive as compared to 10 years ago. Again, the development has been great. But frankly i do not know if people are better of. The traffic, pollution, high prices, the work preshure on children it all builds up.

I think China is reaching the end of this wave, which was fuled on cheap credit and exports. Now Chinease companies have to start to create higher paying jobs. The wastages in government must be controlled. personally I think there may be some years of slower growth to adjust for changes, but I see no reason Why china will not beocome compareble to France or UK. In the next step China must focus on reducing pollution, crating higher paying jobs, governments have to get money from taxes, rather then land sales. And the local governments must start to work with people to make the cities better places to live. Also it is essential to open for the media and allow the publci to scruitnise the local politicians.

saip · Post by **saip** » 30 Apr 2014 05:05

When I visited China I was unable to log into Bharat Rakshak. Except when I was in expat compound or used remote desktop. I tried from Beijing, Shanghai and Xian without any success. So how is Liu able to post to Bharat Rakshak?

sha · Post by **sha** » 30 Apr 2014 07:02

I lives in Xian now. I can access this website. I went on a business strip to Shanghai and Shenzhen last month. No problem using hotels' WiFi to access the website either.
My personal experience. When I first visited this forum several years ago, I might well fail to access this website, then I used free proxy or over the wall software instead. In the latest years, there seems to be no problem. I can directlly access the website.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 30 Apr 2014 07:46

Saip,

It has remained a mystery to me. The China posters always claim no censorship but every single Indian person who had tried says BRF is blocked. 2 years ago someone even tried through several proxy servers in China. All of them were blocked.