PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 30 Apr 2014 10:12

Theo_Fidel wrote:Saip,

It has remained a mystery to me. The China posters always claim no censorship but every single Indian person who had tried says BRF is blocked. 2 years ago someone even tried through several proxy servers in China. All of them were blocked.

it depends on Network operators.

when I am in office and the Network operator is CHina telecom, I can not visit BR unless using proxy.

When I am in home and the Network operator is CHinamobile, I can access BR freely.

Generally speaking,CHinese government is not interesting to blocking enlish webtsite,because most Chinese are not interested in reading/visiting them.
in fact, even the english websites of those west government throat such as BBC,VOA ,fox and CNN are not blocked.

saip · Post by **saip** » 30 Apr 2014 23:05

Theo: Most of the Chinese posters deny that there is any restriction. But the hotels I stayed had a disclaimer. That my internet usage will be monitored. I could not access this site or youtube. I had to rdp to access this site. In Shanghai I stayed for a day with a friend in expat compound. He told me that they have an agreement of sorts that they can access all web sites without restriction and I was able to use youtube and access other sites too. BTW, interestingly, I was able to access deaf and dumb fora!

saip · Post by **saip** » 30 Apr 2014 23:08

I stayed at Hilton, Mariott and another 5 star hotel and I was unable to access this site. I do not know what network provider they were using.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 30 Apr 2014 23:34

Liu wrote:....even the english websites of those west government throat such as BBC,VOA ,fox and CNN are not blocked.

Saip,

Any confirmation on this claim.
Sounds fishy.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2014 23:47

Strangely, the Chinese government just ordered that several US TV programs can no longer be streamed in China, including The Big Bang Theory. There are times when their motives regarding opinion shaping and control are easy to understand. At other times, their actions are just bizarre and meaningless.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 01 May 2014 01:28

Yeah, especially the Big Bang Theory. It's the Chinese favorite American show. They love it.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 01 May 2014 10:14

If average job pays 5000 RMB and a lunch in a decent eatery is 50 RMB then these jobs are domestic help types. Is this really true?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 01 May 2014 10:15

How much income tax does a job holder have to pay in China? Are their tax slabs? Often chinese posters claim that since all chinese families hold 2 jobs and have less taxes is what allows them to spend on comsumer durables.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 01 May 2014 16:33

Rishirishi wrote:

This part that Rishirishi said is surely untrue.

Actually it's very hard to find a town, street in China where there is no restaurant. Leaving absolute number alone, the percentage of Chinese people who eat out (including economical/family restaurant) is high compared to other countries I stayed in, e.g. higher than in Canada and much higher than in Poland for sure
Well i mean of a good standard. The same goes for hotels and taxis. In rural area with less then 20 000 people, you will not find whole lot of services. 3-5000 RMB may sound good, but stuff just is not so cheap any more. A lunch in a ok eating joint will cost you from 50-100 RMB. Mobile tariffs, food etc is very expensive as compared to 10 years ago. Again, the development has been great. But frankly i do not know if people are better of. The traffic, pollution, high prices, the work preshure on children it all builds up.

I think China is reaching the end of this wave, which was fuled on cheap credit and exports. Now Chinease companies have to start to create higher paying jobs. The wastages in government must be controlled. personally I think there may be some years of slower growth to adjust for changes, but I see no reason Why china will not beocome compareble to France or UK. In the next step China must focus on reducing pollution, crating higher paying jobs, governments have to get money from taxes, rather then land sales. And the local governments must start to work with people to make the cities better places to live. Also it is essential to open for the media and allow the publci to scruitnise the local politicians.

1.the settlement with liess 20000 people in China is usually called "village"

and usually, "villages" in China indeed have not taxies and hotels.. and it is unnessory for villages to have taxies and hotel.

2. 3000-5000RMB(500-800USD)/per month indeed is not enough for Chinese peasant workers to live a cozy life after Chinese life cost has risen rapidly.

However, Chinese life cost is still much lower than Taiwan and Europe.
1000-1300USD/month in Taiwan or 700-1000euros/month can not provide Taiwanese/europe grassroots classes a higher life quality than Chinese peasant workers with 500-800USD/month.

3. It is France or UK that can not be comparable to CHina with 1.3 billon Population .
the two countries should compare themselve with some CHinese provicnes, such as Guangdong or Jiangsu.
In fact, Guangdong's population is 2 times of UK /France and it's GDP is 50% of UK's or France.
UK's/france's electricity consumption is also just in the league of some Chinese provices.
I don't think that UK/France's economy will be larger than Guangdong in 15 years.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 01 May 2014 18:33

subhamoy.das wrote:If average job pays 5000 RMB and a lunch in a decent eatery is 50 RMB then these jobs are domestic help types. Is this really true?

the aveage salay might be 3000-5000RMB/monthly, I think. and such salary usually needn't domestic help .
usually those jobs with a salary of less than 2000RMB/monthly are domestic help type.

Usually, the basic goods for daily life is not expensive here.

every monthly, one typic familiy(husband,wife and one kid) in the city here need spend only 2KRMB or so on basic goods for daily life( food, gas, electricity,telephone fee;commute fee)
for example:
rice ,2-3RMB/KG;
electricity, 0.6RMB/KWH;

Internet access: 300RMB/year 5M; if you spend enough telephone fee, interent access oftgen is free ;

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 01 May 2014 19:49

subhamoy.das wrote:How much income tax does a job holder have to pay in China? Are their tax slabs? Often chinese posters claim that since all chinese families hold 2 jobs and have less taxes is what allows them to spend on comsumer durables.

1.if the monthly salary is less than 3500RMB, then the job holders are free of income tax.

2.one CHinese typical grassroots family usually has 2 jobs and total montlhy salary might be 5000-10000RMB(800-1600USD).

excluding accommodation,the expenditure of family basic goods(food, eletricity,gas,basic clothes,communications..etc) might be 2000-3000RMB. the rest of the salary can be saved for accommodation,kid-education or consumer duarbles.

considering that Chinese "sweatshops" usually have to provide free accommodation and food, Chinese peasant workers usually can save quite a lots of their salary.

3. so, excluding basic daily expendicture, usually one Chinese peasant worker family can save 3000-6000RMB every monthly .
Then what can they afford with those saved 3000-6000RMB ?
the following links might help you.

such a 32inches LED Tv set costs 1299RMB
http://www.jd.com/bigimage.aspx?id=1025149
such a AC costs 2399RMB
http://detail.tmall.com/item.htm?spm=a2 ... 9829681924
such a PC costs 1530RMB
http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=a23 ... 6896196487
such a cellphone( XiaoMI 3) costs 1242RMB
http://s.taobao.com/search?spm=a230r.1. ... _11_253825
such a washing maching costs 1099RMB
http://detail.tmall.com/item.htm?spm=a2 ... 27b&pm_id=

such a kitch Smoke lampblack machine cost 438RMB
http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=a23 ... 3757188741
such a water heater costs 1099 RMB
http://detail.tmall.com/item.htm?spm=a2 ... 5724070474

such a family car costs 100-170K RMB( acording to the configure)
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 45107.html

such a apartment usually costs 30K-50K RMB/ square meter in tier1 cities like Beijing,6-30KRMB/square meter in tier 2 cities such as province capitals, 4-15KRMB/square meter in tier3 cities such as prefecture capitals,2-10KRMB/square meter in tier4 cities such as countytowns.
http://www.nipic.com/show/1/48/3759ec1077cacef6.html
http://www.nipic.com/show/1/48/412912a8d8471366.html

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 02 May 2014 04:04

Feel our frind Liu is posting as if he was payed to defend China. I appreciate that Liu will want to give a Chinease perspective, but here it is more like a layer in a court room. I come here to learn about china. Liu must appreciate that this site is Indian and hawkish, and it is not in Inidias Interest to see a very strong China, hence our effort to find Chinease weaknesses.

It would be nice if Liu and other Chinease frineds would make more balanced posts.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 May 2014 05:14

He He He!

Fine posts by guests from across the border. Stat and info posts after posts are revealing. WoW!

saip · Post by **saip** » 02 May 2014 05:25

When I visited China, I could not access many websites but these guys have no problem. None of these posters agree to what I said. They say everything is fine and dandy. Internet is free, many american channels available etc., etc. May be they work for the Govt. and are paid by no of words they post and they get lot of privileges.

Theo: I do not recall watching any of the channels the poster mentioned. We watched very little TV as we normally left early morning and returned late evening after dinner. But I tried face book, google, etc. What I got on google there was different from I would get here. Tinanmen square nothing. And things like that. The only time we watched TV was at my friends place and we had no problem. But he lives in expat compound and so that does not count.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 May 2014 08:19

If the prices quoted by Liu is correct, then Indian goods and services are 10x of those in China and so a Indian worker should be making 100K in local currency per month to have the same quality of life as the Chinese peasant class. So this means that the Chinese peasant class has same purchasing power as the Indian IT class!

But the price quoted by another Chinese poster, Heech, and by Rirshirishi indicates that Indian goods and services are probably same or 10-20% more. Not sure what is the truth

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 02 May 2014 09:36

subhamoy.das wrote:If the prices quoted by Liu is correct, then Indian goods and services are 10x of those in China and so a Indian worker should be making 100K in local currency per month to have the same quality of life as the Chinese peasant class. So this means that the Chinese peasant class has same purchasing power as the Indian IT class!

But the price quoted by another Chinese poster, Heech, and by Rirshirishi indicates that Indian goods and services are probably same or 10-20% more. Not sure what is the truth

1. the quoted price is absolutely correct, because they are quoted directly from Taobao or Jiongdong( CHinese E-commmerce websites like E-bay).
in fact, if you have Chinese Unionpay cards, you can order them right now with the links quoted.
Usually in China, those toys will be packaged to you 3 days after ordered.
the sellers can not receive the fund until you checked the packaged goods and confirm the quality on thosewebsites.

in fact, Taobao and Jingdong is much more effiecient and better than E-bay.

2. chinese peasant workers ,as well as west grassroots such as KFC waiters, can not life a cozy life.
after all, they are grassroot class.
Except basic life expenditures, they have lots something else to worry,although most CHinese peasant family can save 3000-6000RMB every monthly indeed.
hey can not spend all saved money on buying AC,PC or other duables
for example,
they might want to buy one apartment in countytown or upgrade their house in their homevillages.
they might want to save some money for a better education of their kids.
both two items costs much more than basic daily expenditures such as food,basic clothes .

3. industry products in China surely is much cheaper than in India. that is why india now is importing them from China and has a huge trade-deficit against CHina.

5. however, service sectors in India is much cheaper than in China....
reason is quite simple: indian labour cost is much lower than Chinese one.
for example.
We can compare housekeeping service in the two countries.
one dedicated babysitter here have 6 days paid vacation every month and needn't do any cooking or house-keeping works. the salary of such dedicated babysitter is 3500RMB(about 580USD)/month plus free food and accommodation.
can indian people tell me how about babysitter in India??

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 02 May 2014 09:46

saip wrote:When I visited China, I could not access many websites but these guys have no problem. None of these posters agree to what I said. They say everything is fine and dandy. Internet is free, many american channels available etc., etc. May be they work for the Govt. and are paid by no of words they post and they get lot of privileges.

Theo: I do not recall watching any of the channels the poster mentioned. We watched very little TV as we normally left early morning and returned late evening after dinner. But I tried face book, google, etc. What I got on google there was different from I would get here. Tinanmen square nothing. And things like that. The only time we watched TV was at my friends place and we had no problem. But he lives in expat compound and so that does not count.

1. youtube are blocked here indeed,
the chinese version of many west government throats such as BBC and VOA are blocked indeed,but their english version is ok.

2. google is cencored in China indeed ,as well as Chinese medias.
but that is just a second censor after google is the cencored by USA government for the first time.
as for censorship, west and CHina are in the same postion.

google is quite hypocrisy,becasuse it accuses Chinese government of censorship while it cooperate USA government to cencor global netizens.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 02 May 2014 09:49

Rishirishi wrote:Feel our frind Liu is posting as if he was payed to defend China. I appreciate that Liu will want to give a Chinease perspective, but here it is more like a layer in a court room. I come here to learn about china. Liu must appreciate that this site is Indian and hawkish, and it is not in Inidias Interest to see a very strong China, hence our effort to find Chinease weaknesses.

It would be nice if Liu and other Chinease frineds would make more balanced posts.

one hawish indian webiste should find Chinese weaknesses, instead of "imagining CHinese weaknesses"

rishirishi,you said you have been to China.but IMHO,
1. you did not study what a life Chinese ordiniacy people once lived and live now.
for example, when you show you sympathy for those Chinese peasant workers with a monthly salary of 3-5000RMB;
you don't realize that they earned less than 1000RMB one decade ago.
you also don't realize what they spend ther salary on?

furthermore, when you feel pity for their crappy dormitory-room in factories, you don't know that those peasant workers are buying apartment in their home countytowns or upgrading their houses in homevillages.

2. quite a lot of your information and experience is outdated.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 02 May 2014 12:31

Internal Remittance in China

Article is almost nine years old but is indicative.

*****
Here's something more recent

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 May 2014 21:45

Zaitech With A Chinese Accent: Beijings Tepid Efforts To Slow The Credit Boom Are Springing Giant Leaks With Classic End of Bubble Earmarks

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 03 May 2014 09:19

Anand K wrote:Internal Remittance in China

Article is almost nine years old but is indicative.

*****
Here's something more recent

well, in the past 10 years, more the more factories have moved from coastal China to inland China.

So, more the more Chinese peasant workers have started moving back to their inland homecounties for jobs.

instead, every year, millions of Chinese college graduates rushes to those Chinese big cities for futunes....

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 03 May 2014 13:50

Indian baby sitter would charge about 1000RBM with no food and accommodation in a metro like Kokata but could charge more in more expensive metros like Delhi and Mumbai. Upscale baby sitter may be charging 1500 RMB with no food and accommodation.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 04 May 2014 02:35

Liu wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Feel our frind Liu is posting as if he was payed to defend China. I appreciate that Liu will want to give a Chinease perspective, but here it is more like a layer in a court room. I come here to learn about china. Liu must appreciate that this site is Indian and hawkish, and it is not in Inidias Interest to see a very strong China, hence our effort to find Chinease weaknesses.

It would be nice if Liu and other Chinease frineds would make more balanced posts.
one hawish indian webiste should find Chinese weaknesses, instead of "imagining CHinese weaknesses"

rishirishi,you said you have been to China.but IMHO,
1. you did not study what a life Chinese ordiniacy people once lived and live now.
for example, when you show you sympathy for those Chinese peasant workers with a monthly salary of 3-5000RMB;
you don't realize that they earned less than 1000RMB one decade ago.
you also don't realize what they spend ther salary on?

furthermore, when you feel pity for their crappy dormitory-room in factories, you don't know that those peasant workers are buying apartment in their home countytowns or upgrading their houses in homevillages.

2. quite a lot of your information and experience is outdated.

I have stated it several times and repete my self. China has made impressive economic development. Has managed to end famine, feed people and move hundreds of millions out of powerty. Managed to build the worlds best Railways network and madeimpressive advancements in roads, ports, power etc etc.

First time in Schenzen was in 1994. I have been to China dozens of times and also in provinces.

As of now i feel the Chinease governemnt is getting desperate. People have got used to 7-12 % growth and will not settle for anything less (any slowdown will be blamed on mismanagement. The state media has limited credability and people will depend on social media) . The communist party and government machinery faces massive corruption, most large companies are at least partially owned by government and a whole lot of them are not managed according to normal finance practice. The construction industry will suffer a terrible blow without government support. The rising salaries are putting great prashure on parts of the export oriented industry.

Because of the above the Chinease economy will sooner or later face some kind of a reaction. It may be mild or hard on an unpresidented scale. The communist leaders will get desperate and try to hold on to power as good as they can. All of them are involved with corruption. Either directly of via their family. They will need some kind of way to relieve the prsure and my fear is that they may start a war or start a conflict. The adversary has to be so large that it requires Chinease unity. It may be Japan, US/Taiwan or India.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 04 May 2014 11:56

subhamoy.das wrote:If average job pays 5000 RMB and a lunch in a decent eatery is 50 RMB then these jobs are domestic help types. Is this really true?

What's your definition of a decent lunch? If you're talking about say a bowl of beef noodles with maybe a bun or two, then no, it doesn't cost anything near 50 RMB. It barely costs that much in the U.S.!

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 04 May 2014 12:31

Rishirishi wrote:
Liu wrote:
one hawish indian webiste should find Chinese weaknesses, instead of "imagining CHinese weaknesses"

rishirishi,you said you have been to China.but IMHO,
1. you did not study what a life Chinese ordiniacy people once lived and live now.
for example, when you show you sympathy for those Chinese peasant workers with a monthly salary of 3-5000RMB;
you don't realize that they earned less than 1000RMB one decade ago.
you also don't realize what they spend ther salary on?

furthermore, when you feel pity for their crappy dormitory-room in factories, you don't know that those peasant workers are buying apartment in their home countytowns or upgrading their houses in homevillages.

2. quite a lot of your information and experience is outdated.

I have stated it several times and repete my self. China has made impressive economic development. Has managed to end famine, feed people and move hundreds of millions out of powerty. Managed to build the worlds best Railways network and madeimpressive advancements in roads, ports, power etc etc.

First time in Schenzen was in 1994. I have been to China dozens of times and also in provinces.

As of now i feel the Chinease governemnt is getting desperate. People have got used to 7-12 % growth and will not settle for anything less (any slowdown will be blamed on mismanagement. The state media has limited credability and people will depend on social media) . The communist party and government machinery faces massive corruption, most large companies are at least partially owned by government and a whole lot of them are not managed according to normal finance practice. The construction industry will suffer a terrible blow without government support. The rising salaries are putting great prashure on parts of the export oriented industry.

Because of the above the Chinease economy will sooner or later face some kind of a reaction. It may be mild or hard on an unpresidented scale. The communist leaders will get desperate and try to hold on to power as good as they can. All of them are involved with corruption. Either directly of via their family. They will need some kind of way to relieve the prsure and my fear is that they may start a war or start a conflict. The adversary has to be so large that it requires Chinease unity. It may be Japan, US/Taiwan or India.

I think you're overestimating people's appetite for chaos and bloodshed. Even at 4% growth a year, it equates to 50% increase in 10 years, which is a significant and noticeable increase. It's true that China still has many problems that need to be solved, but believing that none of them can be or will be solved is a bit of wishful thinking. The banking system and the SOE's seem to be the next target of reform, and the CCP won't be treading on new territories there. After all, SOE reforms in the 90s, less than 10 years after the 1989 Tiananmen square incident, resulted in massive layoffs across the country and the bankruptcy of about 50% of China's banks, and the CCP survived that with ease.

There's also an alternative way to relieve the pressure. The Chinese governemnt can, you know, actually improve people's lives. I'm sure they'd try to hold onto power as much as they can, and I'm sure they realize that nothing works better than making the people wealthier, healthier, and happier, something they've been doing for the past 35 years.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 04 May 2014 18:41

DavidD wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:If average job pays 5000 RMB and a lunch in a decent eatery is 50 RMB then these jobs are domestic help types. Is this really true?
What's your definition of a decent lunch? If you're talking about say a bowl of beef noodles with maybe a bun or two, then no, it doesn't cost anything near 50 RMB. It barely costs that much in the U.S.!

if you cook and have lunch/supper at home, then 1000RMB/montly is nough to feed one typic family (husband,wife and one kid) in the city here.

the dinner in such a cafe cost usally 30-50RMB/person.
http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z ... &S66&TPjpg
http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z ... S184&TPjpg

saip · Post by **saip** » 04 May 2014 19:27

Hilton,Xi'an provides this Internet access service for its guests.

The user acknowledges the risks associated with public access to the Internet and hereby releases and indemnifies Hilton Xi'an and any affiliates of the foregoing parties from any damages that might occur with this usage.

While we have endeavored to be accurate and to provide information from sources we believe to be accurate, we disclaim any obligation to update this, and we will not be responsible for any damages you may incur, including special or consequential damages or loss of profits (whether foreseeable or not) by relying on the advice herein. Any activities, which may infringe the Laws of the People's Republic of China or endanger the safety of its citizens, is prohibited.

According to the law of People's Republic of China, Hotel shall be required to monitor, track, record, store or disclose your use of the Services, including without limitation, the URLs of the websites you visit and the data you enter, transmit or receive; or, the Hotel may also assist the government agency to do so as required by the law.

Please understand these measures aim to comply with legal or regulatory requirements or to assist in law enforcement investigations and procedures; to operate the Services properly; or because we believe in good faith that it is otherwise necessary or advisable. We appreciate your understanding and support for this. Should you have any questions please contact the hotel General Manager (150 2927 2367).

This is the warning you get when you use Hotel's internet and that is pretty scary warning.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 04 May 2014 20:27

saip wrote:
Hilton,Xi'an provides this Internet access service for its guests.

The user acknowledges the risks associated with public access to the Internet and hereby releases and indemnifies Hilton Xi'an and any affiliates of the foregoing parties from any damages that might occur with this usage.

While we have endeavored to be accurate and to provide information from sources we believe to be accurate, we disclaim any obligation to update this, and we will not be responsible for any damages you may incur, including special or consequential damages or loss of profits (whether foreseeable or not) by relying on the advice herein. Any activities, which may infringe the Laws of the People's Republic of China or endanger the safety of its citizens, is prohibited.

According to the law of People's Republic of China, Hotel shall be required to monitor, track, record, store or disclose your use of the Services, including without limitation, the URLs of the websites you visit and the data you enter, transmit or receive; or, the Hotel may also assist the government agency to do so as required by the law.

Please understand these measures aim to comply with legal or regulatory requirements or to assist in law enforcement investigations and procedures; to operate the Services properly; or because we believe in good faith that it is otherwise necessary or advisable. We appreciate your understanding and support for this. Should you have any questions please contact the hotel General Manager (150 2927 2367).
This is the warning you get when you use Hotel's internet and that is pretty scary warning.

scary?? why, you are being peeped by yankee's NSA too.

in fact, the global internent is being monitored by USA's NSA,,with the cooperation of Google,CIsco and other USA's internent tycoon. NSA's monitoring is not different from Chinese hotel's

to Chinese lucky, Chinese internent infrastructures are provided by CHinese tycoons such as Huawei ,which troubles NSA's peeping more at least.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 04 May 2014 20:53

Rishirishi wrote:
Liu wrote: one hawish indian webiste should find Chinese weaknesses, instead of "imagining CHinese weaknesses"

rishirishi,you said you have been to China.but IMHO,
1. you did not study what a life Chinese ordiniacy people once lived and live now.
for example, when you show you sympathy for those Chinese peasant workers with a monthly salary of 3-5000RMB;
you don't realize that they earned less than 1000RMB one decade ago.
you also don't realize what they spend ther salary on?

furthermore, when you feel pity for their crappy dormitory-room in factories, you don't know that those peasant workers are buying apartment in their home countytowns or upgrading their houses in homevillages.

2. quite a lot of your information and experience is outdated.

I have stated it several times and repete my self. China has made impressive economic development. Has managed to end famine, feed people and move hundreds of millions out of powerty. Managed to build the worlds best Railways network and madeimpressive advancements in roads, ports, power etc etc.

First time in Schenzen was in 1994. I have been to China dozens of times and also in provinces.

As of now i feel the Chinease governemnt is getting desperate. People have got used to 7-12 % growth and will not settle for anything less (any slowdown will be blamed on mismanagement. The state media has limited credability and people will depend on social media) . The communist party and government machinery faces massive corruption, most large companies are at least partially owned by government and a whole lot of them are not managed according to normal finance practice. The construction industry will suffer a terrible blow without government support. The rising salaries are putting great prashure on parts of the export oriented industry.

Because of the above the Chinease economy will sooner or later face some kind of a reaction. It may be mild or hard on an unpresidented scale. The communist leaders will get desperate and try to hold on to power as good as they can. All of them are involved with corruption. Either directly of via their family. They will need some kind of way to relieve the prsure and my fear is that they may start a war or start a conflict. The adversary has to be so large that it requires Chinease unity. It may be Japan, US/Taiwan or India.

1. all economies always will slow after it is maturely industrialzed and modernized. CHina will not be the exception.

2. CHina will not be maturely industrialzied in 1 deade ,because almost 50% of CHinese still live in rural area and are going to move into urban areas.

3. even when CHinese economy get maturely industrialzed and slows in one decade, it will not be helpful to india,because that means China will have be a fully industrizled economy , its average salary might match Taiwan or S.korea at least and it economy will be as large as EU+USA+Japan.
At that time, China's economy edge on India will be much more than now ,perhaps.

4. the richer the people is , the less the people's demand of high economy growth is .
for example ,
ten years ago, mainland Chinese salary was only 100USD/month while Taiwanese salary was 1000USD/month. mainland CHinese of course could not endure the growth of less than 8%,because that means they could hardly catch up with Taiwanese ' in their lifetime.
but now, Mainland CHinese monthly salary is already 500-800USD/month while Taiwanese salary is still 1000-1300USD/month. then mainland CHinese now can accept 5-8% growth, because it can assure that they can catch up with Taiwanese already.

in 10 years, Mainland CHinese monthl salary might have caught up with Taiwanese and 60-70% of yankee's, then at that time ,CHinese might can accept 3-5% growth, becasuse such a growth already can assure CHinese salary can catch up in forseeable future.

BTW, now my salary is already 20 times more than 15 year ago and I now earn more than most ordinary Taiwanese already.
but it is very hard for my salary to grow 2000%+ in the coming 15 years for a second time,isn't it?
and even if my salary were to grow only 200% in the coming 15 years, that would not mean that CCP would do a bad job and I needn't feel angry with CCP,need I??

saip · Post by **saip** » 05 May 2014 00:20

What is your point, Liu? Heard of torn shirt, fly open? If NSA spies on me, I fight it and never defend it, no where and in no forum. But you have no guts to fight or criticize your govt's policy. That is the difference between and American and a Chinese. Don't delude yourself thinking NSA is not spying on Chinese like we don't delude ourselves into thinking the Chinese are not spying on us (i.e. the americans).

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 05 May 2014 02:13

[quote]1. all economies always will slow after it is maturely industrialzed and modernized. CHina will not be the exception.

2. CHina will not be maturely industrialzied in 1 deade ,because almost 50% of CHinese still live in rural area and are going to move into urban areas.

3. even when CHinese economy get maturely industrialzed and slows in one decade, it will not be helpful to india,because that means China will have be a fully industrizled economy , its average salary might match Taiwan or S.korea at least and it economy will be as large as EU+USA+Japan.
At that time, China's economy edge on India will be much more than now ,perhaps.

4. the richer the people is , the less the people's demand of high economy growth is .
for example ,
ten years ago, mainland Chinese salary was only 100USD/month while Taiwanese salary was 1000USD/month. mainland CHinese of course could not endure the growth of less than 8%,because that means they could hardly catch up with Taiwanese ' in their lifetime.
but now, Mainland CHinese monthly salary is already 500-800USD/month while Taiwanese salary is still 1000-1300USD/month. then mainland CHinese now can accept 5-8% growth, because it can assure that they can catch up with Taiwanese already.

in 10 years, Mainland CHinese monthl salary might have caught up with Taiwanese and 60-70% of yankee's, then at that time ,CHinese might can accept 3-5% growth, becasuse such a growth already can assure CHinese salary can catch up in forseeable future.

BTW, now my salary is already 20 times more than 15 year ago and I now earn more than most ordinary Taiwanese already.
but it is very hard for my salary to grow 2000%+ in the coming 15 years for a second time,isn't it?
and even if my salary were to grow only 200% in the coming 15 years, that would not mean that CCP would do a bad job and I needn't feel angry with CCP,need I??
/quote]

1 Agree.
2 agree
3 You are assuming that India will depend on Chinease consumption to grow (export oriented development). Also you are taking Chinease growth for granted.
I think this can be the case, but chances are greater that it will not. China copied the Japanease Export model with great sucsess. I think China will face a decade or even more of great turmoil.
a) The wages are rising so fast that it is going to threaten the export oriented part of the economy. Inward investments will change to outward cash flow.
B)The other pillar of the Chinese economy is construction and investment in infrastructure. The government is already in great debt and there is a limit to how long it can carry on. Cuts will have to be made and people will see their real wages fall.
c) The third great problem is the large public owned sector. It is based on easy credit and favroble market conditions.

Unemployment is going to increase, during time of adjustment. The question is how the people are going to feel about that. For sure the blame will go to the party. That is when things will become dangerous.
c) The third great problem is the massive semi gov. controlled manufacturing sector. It is extremly large and not very effi

As compared to India.
Indian economy depends largely on pretty competitive and well managed companies. The state enterprise play a very limited role.
The greats hurdles are dishonest politicians, disfunctional governance and energy issues.

So in reality both India and China or any other country, has the same problem. The quality of governance. The swiss, Scandinavians, Germans,Dutch,Japanease, Singaporeians etc enjoy very high standards becase of good governance. The Chinease gov. has managed the export oriented growth well. But it does not allow free press or critical voices. It is still a command economy, It does not have a proper legislative system. And it has picked a fight with most of its neighbors. I do not think the Japanease, Taiwaneese, Indians, Vietnamiease, Pillipino or the Americans/EU are going to let China rise without democratic reforms. IT becomes too dangerous for them. They will not let the largest economy be a dictatorship.

And China for one can be shut down very easily. The US can simply find an excuse and walk away from the Chinese debt. On top of that they can shut down the imports.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 05 May 2014 04:03

saip wrote:What is your point, Liu? Heard of torn shirt, fly open? If NSA spies on me, I fight it and never defend it, no where and in no forum. But you have no guts to fight or criticize your govt's policy. That is the difference between and American and a Chinese. Don't delude yourself thinking NSA is not spying on Chinese like we don't delude ourselves into thinking the Chinese are not spying on us (i.e. the americans).

I'm living in the U.S. right now, and don't even try to tell me that the Americans are fighting the NSA. Obama has already come out and condoned the NSA's actions. Nothing's gonna be done, and it's not because the people are spineless or whatnot, it's because of the simple fact that nobody really gives a shiz. After all, NSA's spying doesn't affect anybody's life in any tangible way.

takeoff · Post by **takeoff** » 05 May 2014 07:15

saip wrote:What is your point, Liu? Heard of torn shirt, fly open? If NSA spies on me, I fight it and never defend it, no where and in no forum. But you have no guts to fight or criticize your govt's policy. That is the difference between and American and a Chinese. Don't delude yourself thinking NSA is not spying on Chinese like we don't delude ourselves into thinking the Chinese are not spying on us (i.e. the americans).

Just curious how did you know Chinese people can not criticize Chinese government? From where you get such an impression? Do you read Chinese news papers or read comments on Chinese websites? And what Chinese policies do you know that are harmful to domestic Chinese so the local people have to criticize? The point is, when you draw a conclusion you have to show some evidences to prove it, otherwise is not discussion. Thanks

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 05 May 2014 07:59

"Just curious how did you know Chinese people can not criticize Chinese government? From where you get such an impression? Do you read Chinese news papers or read comments on Chinese websites?"

One thing that would be very impressive to see, is a Chinese newspaper or website openly condemning something like China's support of the genocidal Khmer Rouge in 1979. Pol Pot and the KR conducted one of the worst, if not the worst, genocide in the post World War 2 era, and they were unabashedly supported and propped up by the Chinese government. And no acknowledgement of the horrific wrongdoing, let alone an apology or commiseration, has ever come from the Chinese government, people or media. If India had ever supported utter maniacs in say, Myanmar or Thailand or Philippines, there would be a massive uproar and calls for action against the officials responsible for the policy. It would not be business as usual. Of course, it's another issue that India would not support, would not have reason to support, maniacs like the Khmer Rouge, whereas for China, that is a legitimate form of warfare, and the 2 million victims are just a statistic that China can easily forget.

An open discussion, not whispers in coffee houses, on this matter, would impress at least one sceptic.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 May 2014 09:10

Beijing's Tepid Efforts To Slow The Credit Boom Are Springing Giant Leaks

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 05 May 2014 11:03

Rishirishi wrote:
1. all economies always will slow after it is maturely industrialzed and modernized. CHina will not be the exception.

2. CHina will not be maturely industrialzied in 1 deade ,because almost 50% of CHinese still live in rural area and are going to move into urban areas.

3. even when CHinese economy get maturely industrialzed and slows in one decade, it will not be helpful to india,because that means China will have be a fully industrizled economy , its average salary might match Taiwan or S.korea at least and it economy will be as large as EU+USA+Japan.
At that time, China's economy edge on India will be much more than now ,perhaps.

4. the richer the people is , the less the people's demand of high economy growth is .
for example ,
ten years ago, mainland Chinese salary was only 100USD/month while Taiwanese salary was 1000USD/month. mainland CHinese of course could not endure the growth of less than 8%,because that means they could hardly catch up with Taiwanese ' in their lifetime.
but now, Mainland CHinese monthly salary is already 500-800USD/month while Taiwanese salary is still 1000-1300USD/month. then mainland CHinese now can accept 5-8% growth, because it can assure that they can catch up with Taiwanese already.

in 10 years, Mainland CHinese monthl salary might have caught up with Taiwanese and 60-70% of yankee's, then at that time ,CHinese might can accept 3-5% growth, becasuse such a growth already can assure CHinese salary can catch up in forseeable future.

BTW, now my salary is already 20 times more than 15 year ago and I now earn more than most ordinary Taiwanese already.
but it is very hard for my salary to grow 2000%+ in the coming 15 years for a second time,isn't it?
and even if my salary were to grow only 200% in the coming 15 years, that would not mean that CCP would do a bad job and I needn't feel angry with CCP,need I??
/quote]

1 Agree.
2 agree
3 You are assuming that India will depend on Chinease consumption to grow (export oriented development). Also you are taking Chinease growth for granted.
I think this can be the case, but chances are greater that it will not. China copied the Japanease Export model with great sucsess. I think China will face a decade or even more of great turmoil.
a) The wages are rising so fast that it is going to threaten the export oriented part of the economy. Inward investments will change to outward cash flow.
B)The other pillar of the Chinese economy is construction and investment in infrastructure. The government is already in great debt and there is a limit to how long it can carry on. Cuts will have to be made and people will see their real wages fall.
c) The third great problem is the large public owned sector. It is based on easy credit and favroble market conditions.

Unemployment is going to increase, during time of adjustment. The question is how the people are going to feel about that. For sure the blame will go to the party. That is when things will become dangerous.
c) The third great problem is the massive semi gov. controlled manufacturing sector. It is extremly large and not very effi

As compared to India.
Indian economy depends largely on pretty competitive and well managed companies. The state enterprise play a very limited role.
The greats hurdles are dishonest politicians, disfunctional governance and energy issues.

So in reality both India and China or any other country, has the same problem. The quality of governance. The swiss, Scandinavians, Germans,Dutch,Japanease, Singaporeians etc enjoy very high standards becase of good governance. The Chinease gov. has managed the export oriented growth well. But it does not allow free press or critical voices. It is still a command economy, It does not have a proper legislative system. And it has picked a fight with most of its neighbors. I do not think the Japanease, Taiwaneese, Indians, Vietnamiease, Pillipino or the Americans/EU are going to let China rise without democratic reforms. IT becomes too dangerous for them. They will not let the largest economy be a dictatorship.

And China for one can be shut down very easily. The US can simply find an excuse and walk away from the Chinese debt. On top of that they can shut down the imports.

1.there is not real free press on the earth.

there is only the free press for those guys who can not harm the rulers and have cheap talk.

you guys are allowed to bash indian government or USA government freely,becasuse India government or USA government do know you can do nothing to stop them or harm them,but cheap talk.

Once you guys "free talk" do harm India government or USA government like Snowden, NSA or some other agents would appear and make you shut up.

2. so is in CHina.
CHinese has only the freedom to bashing CCP by cheap talk ,but are not allowed to harm CCP government.

3. the only difference is that you guys can have such cheap talk in formal sites while CHinese can do only in unformal occasion such as at home ,on the conditions that government assure that you can do nothing harmful to them but to "cheap talk".

4. so as for "free medias" , west govenment is in the same position of CCP...they are not more moral than CCP.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 05 May 2014 12:29

How are you guys liking the Western "free press" coverage of Ukraine? The media will always be a tool of the political elite. They are billion dollar corporations, and you'd be a fool to think that anything a billion dollar corporation says doesn't come with an agenda.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 05 May 2014 16:05

The Indian media is more enlightened and moral than the the CCP, would say the same for certain sections of the North American media, not necessarily all. The Indian media's coverage of the Bofors scandal back in the 80's was effective in turning people against the Congress and Rajiv Gandhi, and cause him to lose the next election. The media was not threatened for its reportage of the issue. When an incumbent government is about to lose an election, they accept the loss gracefully, not threaten violence.

Western mainstream media's coverage of Russia-Ukraine falls along traditional lines. But you get counter views and perspectives, whether from letters to the editor, academia or special media( i.e smaller newspapers, less commercial TV channels).

The question is not just one of press freedom, but of different perspectives expressed openly. In China, everything is about mighty mighty state and great Chinese people and great achievements.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 May 2014 17:15

China Unleashes Yuan Bears, but Can it Cage Them Again?

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 06 May 2014 03:10

Varoon Shekhar wrote:The Indian media is more enlightened and moral than the the CCP, would say the same for certain sections of the North American media, not necessarily all. The Indian media's coverage of the Bofors scandal back in the 80's was effective in turning people against the Congress and Rajiv Gandhi, and cause him to lose the next election. The media was not threatened for its reportage of the issue. When an incumbent government is about to lose an election, they accept the loss gracefully, not threaten violence.

Western mainstream media's coverage of Russia-Ukraine falls along traditional lines. But you get counter views and perspectives, whether from letters to the editor, academia or special media( i.e smaller newspapers, less commercial TV channels).

The question is not just one of press freedom, but of different perspectives expressed openly. In China, everything is about mighty mighty state and great Chinese people and great achievements.

That really depends on what you mean by moral. I remember watching a Chinese movie recently, one of the lines was something like "incompetence is a form of corruption as well". I think it was a subtle dig at Hu Jintao, but I digress. The point is that a free but incompetent government can cause a lot of harm to society as well. For example, millions more Indian babies die each and every single year than Chinese babies due to inadequate healthcare (8.5 vs. 30.9 neonatal mortality per 1000 live births), is that any more moral than corruption leading to dozens of babies dying in one year of lead poisoning?