Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

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nawabs
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Market competition as a poll plank

http://www.financialexpress.com/article ... ank/33364/
Prime minister Narendra Modi possibly is the first politician in independent India to promise ‘dynamic competition’ as a populist pre-poll sop. During his Ram Leela Maidan speech, campaigning for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections, Modi assured the voters of Delhi that his government is planning to implement an ‘open-access’ electricity regime for the city, where residents, much like choosing their mobile phone operators, will be able to choose their electricity supplier based upon better service and cheaper price.

Modi chose to use the example of India’s telecommunications industry, an industry best known as the poster-boy of dynamic competition, to drive home the idea that just as a competitive surge among India’s telecom service providers has resulted in high tele-density in India’s urban and rural areas with a dramatic reduction of prices of mobile handsets and service charges, similar consumer benefits were in store for Delhi’s electricity users.

It is ironic that Modi has to make a campaign pledge for implementing a regulatory measure which has been a part of India’s electricity laws for the last 12 years. The implementation of this reform (liberalising the Indian electricity market) has been progressively sabotaged by the rampant use of the Indian electricity sector as a tool of public appeasement. Political intervention in both the functioning of the country’s electricity regulators and in setting of electricity pricing structures, have hindered the introduction of retail competition in the sector—ensuring India’s electricity users have limited and inefficient service options. Consequently, India currently ranks 111 out of 189 nations in challenges faced by new businesses to get a permanent electricity connection and residents of even the country’s capital city of Delhi (as per a CEA estimate) suffer from approximately 5 hours of daily power-cuts every summer.

Modi’s comment—that a Delhite would first need access to electricity before she can appreciate lower electricity tariffs—seems an appropriate jibe targeted at the political ideology of the Aam Admi Party leader, Arvind Kejriwal, Narendra Modi’s chief political rival for Delhi assembly elections.

Kejriwal prefers a populist anti-reform plan, where his campaign pledges to lower electricity tariffs, threatening to cancel licences of electricity distributors and audit their finances. His grandiose parens patriae political agenda seems ill-informed of the fact that in the last 10 years, power tariffs have increased by 65% while cost of generating power went up by a whopping 300%.

In such a political milieu, Modi’s attempt to intellectually and politically defeat populist anti-reformers is quite welcome. By linking the benefits of competitive electricity markets to cheaper electricity tariffs, Modi has co-opted one of Kejriwal’s major campaign promises. If both Kejriwal and Modi promise lower electricity tariffs, it might make sense for Delhi’s voters to choose the latter, whose accompanying pitch to make India’s electricity sector more competitive will also ensure uninterrupted 24 hours of power supply for the residents of Delhi.

By making it easier for the common voter in Delhi to understand how her life improves when India’s markets become more competitive, the prime minister may have started the process of creating an electoral constituency around the idea of competitive market reforms.

Inspite of the fact that studies by the World Bank, the OECD and the Competition Commission of India have shown that competitive markets have a direct impact on poverty reduction, with the greatest benefits of such markets accruing to the least well-off sections of the society, there is no vote-bank yet for pro-competitive policy reforms, especially among the non-urban electorate.

Modi’s attempt to philosophically root the benefits of pro-market, competitive reforms in the improvement of the lives of the aam aadmi—through a high-decibel electoral strategy—will help him evolve a broad basis for his style of development-oriented politics. If he can make another bout of Congress-style welfare-state socialism electorally unappealing, Modi could finally tilt the fulcrum of Indian electoral politics towards a neo-liberal common sense—something which is not likely to be reversed by future rotations of the electoral wheel of fortune.

If Modi achieves the same electoral success sloganeering for competitive markets as Indira Gandhi did with ‘garibi hatao’, his political detractors will have to think more imaginatively than cutting electric wires to remain politically relevant.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

World Bank: Social Mobility in India Now Comparable to U.S.
The report, called Addressing Inequality in South Asia, compares the share of consumption among three developing countries - Vietnam, Bangladesh and India - and the United States, divided along transitioning class lines - moving out of poverty, those moving from poverty into the middle class, falling back to poverty, falling out of middle class. The findings of the analysis were that “within the same generation, mobility in earnings - measured by the ability to move out of poverty and into the middle class - is comparable to that of the United States

The report says that India between 2004-05 and 2009-10, 15% of the total population also moved above the poverty line. By these measures, the report claims “upward mobility within a generation in.... India was comparable to that of dynamic societies such as the United States.”

The report attributed much of India’s upward mobility to increased urbanisation in the country, stating in a summary: “Urban jobs have become a ticket to the middle class. Upward mobility is much stronger in cities, where even self-employment and casual work can lead to substantial gains in consumption.”
pankajs
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 977513.cms
Government preparing comprehensive export strategy for China
"The trade deficit with China is increasing at an alarming rate. Till now it has touched $32 billion and may cross $40 billion by end of this fiscal," an official told PTI.

In order to bridge this, the commerce ministry is formulating the strategy under which it has identified specific products including textiles, auto components, pharmaceuticals, buffalo meat, marine products, rice and other agri produces.

"These sectors have huge potential in the Chinese market. Exports of the products would help in bridging the deficit by around $10 billion in a year. In these sectors, domestic players have good cost advantage," the official added.

The paper has also highlighted problems being faced by Indian exporters in these segments such as regulatory hurdles for pharma sector and sanitary and phyto-sanitary (related with plants and animals) issues for meat exports.
...
Indian entities also face several regulatory hurdles and other complex domestic certification requirements to bid for government tenders and government sponsored IT projects in China.
We should institute reciprocal regulatory hurdles and certification requirements in a phased manner. Many of the good being imported can be produced in India but are imported because of the price differentials. With inflation going down and we can afford to have a little price rise in some sectors in a phased manner.
vina
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by vina »

buffalo meat
Ah, didn't some one make a big issue out of "Pink Revolution" and meat exports in the Lok Sabha elections ? Didn't we also have a discussion here on BRF and how I said buffaloes are really not "cow progeny" as the VHP would like to think, and how Bufallo meat is consumed in vast quantities in Nepal (Newaris)..

Well.. well, whaddya know . Seven months in power and pragmatism rules.. Oppose GST while as CM, promote GST while as PM. Oppose buffalo meat export as CM, promote it as PM. Good.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Singha »

if we kill all the buffalos that would hardly make a dent on massive chinese manufactured goods exports to india.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Fiscal and governance indicators continue their improvement across the board:
OMCs under-recoveries shrink by a third in April-Dec period for current fiscal
Image
Total under recoveries down by 33% or approx Rs.33000 crore.
Using the Rajasthan experiment results to expand labour law reforms nationwide:
Centre working on labour law changes
The Centre might take up changes to the Industrial Disputes Act on the lines of what the Rajasthan government recently did, sources said.

The Union ministry has started work on clubbing all the 44 labour laws into five segments — industrial relations, wages, social security, working conditions and welfare cess.

The Rajasthan government had recently enacted an amendment to the Industrial Disputes Act, allowing factories employing up to 300 workers to retrench these without taking permission. Earlier, only factories which employed up to 100 workers were allowed to do so. As this law falls under the concurrent list in the Constitution, states can bring in amendments, with Centre’s approval. The Madhya Pradesh government has moved the Centre for like changes.

At the central level, the Act still allows only factories employing up to 100 workers to retrench employees without taking government permission.

Changes to the ID Act have been an old demand of businesses, which often complain of a lack of flexibility in hiring workers. Trade unions have always opposed this move.

Another official said the labour ministry had set up a “reform cell” comprising legal experts and present and former officers to look into this process of simplification of laws. Law governing industrial relations such as the ID Act, the Trade Unions Act and Industrial Employment Act may be collated into a single Industrial Relations Act. Those related to wages such as the Minimum Wages Act and Payment of Wages Act might be consolidated.
Investment flows to begin picking up by FY16: CEA
Confident India would be able to benefit from the positive sentiments among foreign investors, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said the real investment flows should begin picking up from the next financial year but it will be a gradual process.

"There is a strong interest in India based on facts that the Indian economy has turned around and is looking promising going forward. So, there is a lot of interest in India at Davos," he said.

Besides, the global economy is also painting a kind of mixed picture and India stands out as one of the places where reforms are happening, a change is happening and there is hope that growth would pick up.
Coal ministry meets top bankers ahead of e-auction of coal mines
Keeping the lenders in confidence is likely to benefit the bidders from the power sector the most. Most power generation stations are reeling under fuel crunch and have defaulted on their loans. Of the 136 Gw stranded power generation capacity with an investment of Rs 6.23 lakh crore, as much as Rs 4.36 lakh crore is feared to convert into non-performing assets. Coal-based projects of 46,500 Mw suffer from with time and cost overruns, hurting a committed investment of about Rs 3 lakh crore. The government initiated the re-allocation process by starting allotment of 36 coal mines to state-run entities from January 23. Of the 36 coal mines, one is for the steel sector and the rest for the power sector. The e-auction of 46 coal mines will start from February 14. Out of these, 16 are for power sector and rest are for the iron & steel, and cement sectors, and captive power producers.
New slab-based formula for petroleum subsidy on the anvil
The panel, in fresh recommendations submitted in 2013 had suggested further reworked the contribution formula for ONGC Ltd and Oil India Ltd to a 40 per cent share of the crude oil price when it was less than $ 80 per barrel, hiking it to 40 per cent and $0.25 each $ 1 increase per barrel beyond $80, and a 50 per cent share of the crude oil price when it moves beyond $ 120 per barrel.

The international crude oil price of Indian Basket was $45.16 per barrel on Tuesday and the low oil prices are expected to help the Centre save at least Rs 40,000 crore on fuel subsidy in 2014-15.
Vriksh
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Vriksh »

Anyone with interests in waste plastic to fuel technologies?
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Vriksh wrote:Anyone with interests in waste plastic to fuel technologies?
Vriksh,

Look up Thermal Depolymerization.
kmkraoind
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by kmkraoind »

Govt tells Facebook, Twitter and others to relocate their servers to India: report
The reason is simple, in case of information leak or hack, it gets difficult in investigating the case if the servers are hosted outside India. Moreover, Indian laws cannot be applied on those agencies.

Citing top government sources, the report reveals that a meeting will be soon held with leading social media websites – Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and Flickr, asking them to bring their servers in India.
Vriksh
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Vriksh »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Vriksh wrote:Anyone with interests in waste plastic to fuel technologies?
Vriksh,

Look up Thermal Depolymerization.
Quite depressing outlook judging from the wikipedia entries. Looks like many technology companies have become bankrupt.

Are there any success stories in area of waste plastics to fuel in terms of technology and financial prognosis? At what oil price is this technology sustainable? Someone once mentioned that fracking is unviable financially when oil dips below $60 /barrel.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Theo_Fidel »

^^^^
It is viable at oil price somewhere between $150 to $200. But oil itself may not be viable at that price point….
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

From the fragile five to the least shaky BRIC:
India’s Reserves Rise to Record in Fastest BRIC Accumulation
India’s foreign-exchange reserves rose to a record as policy makers looked to protect the economy against outflows from a probable increase in U.S. interest rates.

Holdings climbed $2.7 billion in the week ended Jan. 16 to $322.14 billion, a Reserve Bank of India statement showed today. Foreign funds, buoyed by near-zero borrowing costs in Europe and the U.S., poured $42 billion into Indian stocks and bonds last year.

India’s larger currency stockpile and narrowing trade deficit reduces vulnerability to external shocks, providing Governor Raghuram Rajan room to cut interest rates this month for the first time since May 2013. The increase in reserves over the past year is the fastest among the largest emerging markets.

“It’s critical to augment reserves,” said Sujan Hajra, an economist at Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. in Mumbai. “They will provide a buffer against a selloff when the Federal Reserve hikes rates or if there is more global turmoil.”

The rupee has surged about 12 percent from an all-time low in August 2013, when Morgan Stanley dubbed the currencies of India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey as the “fragile five” because of their difficulties in drawing capital to finance deficits.

Since then, Rajan has lured inflows by offering discounted dollar-swaps to banks and overseas investors bought a record $26 billion of Indian bonds last year on optimism the most stable government in 30 years will help improve finances in Asia’s third-largest economy.

India’s foreign-exchange reserves rose about 10 percent in the past 12 months, while Brazil saw holdings decline by 0.4 percent to $374 billion and in Russia they fell by 28 percent to $339 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s reserves rose 0.6 perent to $3.8 trillion.

The primacy of U.S.-based funds in Indian debt may cause adverse effects in case of unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India said in its financial stability report Dec. 29. Foreign-exchange reserves provide the first line of defense against sudden outflows, executive director Deepak Mohanty said last year.
Paul
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Paul »

x-post

++++
BRFites in Bangalore, please make it a point to visit the Machine tool expo this weekend. Definitely worth a visit. There is lot of activity here this time, more activity and presence from foreign vendors compared to previous years

http://www.imtex.in/
kmkraoind
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by kmkraoind »

Surprise: Thanks to 'labour gangs', some FCI loaders earn Rs 4 lakh per month
An Indian Express article from 2013 noted that 'proxy labourers' are earning so much salary, without even working. It noted that many FCI depots cannot employ contract labour.

"This leaves the loading job at these depots with about 3,000 permanent workers. These workers don't do the entire work themselves and employ others, who are neither on FCI roll nor contract workers. These casual workers are not paid commensurately by the 'master labourers' on the roll, whose peak monthly wages often exceed even R 2 lakh," says the report.
Its high time that govt disband FCI and reform labour laws.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by krishnan »

a lorry off loader in chennai-koyembedu earns close to 800-1000 per lorry , so imagine 5 lorry per day with 800 as base pay with 25 days of working per month

5*800*25 = 1,00,000

thats min a guy can earn
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by archan »

How will the Greek election results impact Indian economy? Anti austerity folks have won.
JE Menon
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by JE Menon »

^^Not significantly archan, in any direct way that I can think of... However, the impact on policy making direction, politico-economic consideration, and general mood in the EU will definitely be negative. The fall-out of that may have some indirect impact. Our relationship with the EU is trade related, largely. To the extent that it is not, Greece has close to zero role. Business will continue, though there may be certain minimal sectoral impacts... In the scheme of things, coldly put, Greece is inconsequential outside of the EU.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Indian economic trajectory this year will be primarily guided by domestic capacity and infrastructure expansion, and as such, is generally not affected by EU peripheral issues. Financial turmoil from the Swiss central bank delinking (which I think hasn't yet fully hit home) has more potential to cause volatility. Greece is small potatoes in comparison.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by deejay »

krishnan wrote:a lorry off loader in chennai-koyembedu earns close to 800-1000 per lorry , so imagine 5 lorry per day with 800 as base pay with 25 days of working per month

5*800*25 = 1,00,000

thats min a guy can earn
OT here so a small (single) transgression:

krishnan saar, I will give superman status to any off loader who can do more than 03 lorries a day. 02 lorries is tough on the back. The load carrying life is fairly short. Please do not apply linear maths. 25 days in 30 days of this back breaking work is also a big stretch. I would say 7-12 days a month. Else, not more than a lorry a day to last long.

I get truck load of books off loaded regularly. I have undertaken loading of Mi 17's for a long time. I have seen labour handle flood relief load. High load and sustained period does not work in this kind of job.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by krishnan »

6-7 people do the job each lorry , costs 7-8K to offload each lorry , 3-5 can easily be done by 25-30 year olds from morning to evening. But most dont, just get enough for booze and some biryani and some extra.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I have enough trouble getting 2 man crews to load unload my Lorries. 6 man crew is out of the question. Load unload 1 lorry per day is max in my experience as well….
The next generation is completely uninterested in manual labor. And rightfully so.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by vina »

Hmm. Took my kid for a haircut yesterday in a neighbourhood shop (Rs 70 per hair cut, not chi-chi stuff). I was speaking Kannada to the barber as usual , he was largely silent in his replies, though he understood what was being said , and then I saw the red string band on his wrists and switched to Hindi. I realised that he and and his partner manning the shift in the usual barber shop I go to were from Bihar! Normally, the barber trade in the southern part of Bangalore tends to be local Telugus.

Looks like the "labor shortage" seems to be hitting the men's barber profession too. Most of the women's beauty parlours were anyways full of North East labor. All in all very good. Nothing like the rising economy and movement of labor and capital to stitch together a vast and diverse nation. And one of my dad's college mates who nows runs a poultry farm says that all his labor is from Bihar , they work very hard, prefer taking their wages as a lump sum before they go home on vacation and have great work ethics!

Bihar and eastern UP are crying for investments and growth. That is the region where the largest gains in productivity and improvements and massive dents into poverty will come from in the shortest period of time . The Modi govt should focus fully on that region and do everything it takes to develop those .
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

CAD to swing into surplus in 2015: Morgan Stanley
India’s current account which has been consistently in deficit over the past 10 years is likely to swing into a minor surplus of 0.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, says a Morgan Stanley report.

According to the global brokerage firm, improving terms of trade, coupled with declining global commodity prices (specifically oil), are likely to help current account to swing into surplus for the first time since 2004.

The current account deficit has been narrowing steadily since 2012 to an estimated 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2014.

“We now estimate the current account will swing into a minor surplus of 0.3 per cent of GDP in 2015,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

The major factors that would drive the current account to surplus, include improving terms of trade, helped by falling global commodity prices (specifically oil) and decline in gold imports, among others.

Since June, the prices of crude oil of which India is a major importer had fallen by close to 60 per cent and hit a six-year low of $47 this month.
Cheaper oil fuels India’s strategic reserves push
Seizing the opportunity provided by the global price of crude falling to less than $50 a barrel, India is planning to fill up a strategic storage facility at Visakhapatnam by the first fortnight of February. This would be the first time the country is storing crude oil and the amount will be 1.03 million tonnes.

Strategic reserves are seen as vital for countries with high energy consumption levels and more so for India, which is heavily import-dependent when it comes to meeting its energy needs.

“We are just waiting for one specific approval. Once it comes, we are technically ready to fill the tank at Visakhapatnam,” said Rajan K Pillai, CEO & MD of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves (ISPRL) a special purpose vehicle owned by the Oil Industry Development Board.

Pillai said that at the current crude oil prices of around $50 per barrel and the rupee’s level of 61-62 to the dollar, filling up the facility at Visakhapatnam would cost about R2,400 crore and would be fully funded by the government. “India has set up among the cheapest storage facilities, which would cost about $17-18 per barrel,” Pillai said.

India imported 189 million tonnes of crude oil last fiscal, at a cost of $143 billion. Close to four-fifths of India’s oil consumption is met by imports. The construction of the proposed strategic storage facilities is being managed by ISPRL. To ensure energy security, the government has decided to set up 5 million tonnes (mt) or about about 39 million barrels equivalent strategic crude oil storages at three locations — Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur (near Udupi).
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

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Infra ministries told to review delayed projects
Alarmed at huge cost overruns due to delays in central infrastructure projects, the Cabinet Secretariat has directed the secretaries of all ministries concerned to hold review meetings for projects under their domain on a monthly basis. It added these meetings should lay more emphasis on projects delayed by more than six months and for which cost overruns exceeded Rs 100 crore.

It also directed the secretaries to fix responsibilities for time and cost overruns and take action against those held responsible.

According to information complied by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi), of the 720 central infrastructure projects worth at least Rs 150 crore each, 295 have seen delays. The total project implementation cost for these projects has increased 19.10 per cent compared to the initial estimate of Rs 927,317 crore.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by saip »

Theo_Fidel wrote:I have enough trouble getting 2 man crews to load unload my Lorries. 6 man crew is out of the question. Load unload 1 lorry per day is max in my experience as well….
The next generation is completely uninterested in manual labor. And rightfully so.
I take it in India palletization and the fork lifts are not in vogue.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Singha »

not sure if anyone has noticed but the new center of developments in the optical data transmission industry is .... Israel.

this is their third major kill after defence electronics/optics , security platforms.

technion and their system of VCs in east and west coast of massa is definitely delivering results. its punching way above its weight per capita.

meantime our sikular regime ensured we could not even make basic medicines to meet domestic consumption forget exports.
this has gotta change.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 035298.cms

BENGALURU: If Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Make in India mantra has to be implemented in some sector first, it has to be in the pharma industry. The reason: In the past four financial years, India has imported from China bulk drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) worth about Rs 38,186 crore. Most of these have gone into making essential drugs.

TOI had reported in November 2014 that national security adviser Ajit Doval had warned the government about over-dependence on China.

If submissions to the government by the department of pharmaceuticals are any indication, there is significant dependence on imports in the case of 12 essential drugs. "Approximately 80-90% of these (essential drugs) imports are from China," the department has said. "The decision is based on economic considerations."

The 12 drugs are: paracetamol, metformin, ranitidine, amoxicillin, ciprofloxacin, cefixime, acetyl salicylic acid, ascorbic acid, ofloxacin, ibuprofen, metronidazole and ampicillin. Eight of these are on WHO's Model List of Essential Medicines.

Documents of the department of pharmaceuticals show there has been a consistent growth in the import of drugs and APIs from China. In 2011-12, Rs 8,798 crore worth of bulk drugs and APIs were imported from China. This was Rs 11,000 crore in 2012-13, Rs 11,865 crore in 2013-14, and Rs 6,521 crore during April-September in 2014-15.

Sudhansh Pant, joint secretary, department of pharmaceuticals, told TOI from Delhi: "China out-prices India when it comes to APIs and bulk drugs. There is a need to see how to change this situation. A committee of secretaries under Dr VM Katoch (secretary, department of health research) is looking into the matter."

India is mulling a separate policy for APIs so as to create an environment for production of the same within the country. A lot of this policy will be derived from the Katoch committee's recommendations.

But India may to have find another way to reduce dependence before the policy bears fruit.


Study China model and encourage local vendors: Dr Rao VSV Valdlamudi

At the outset, I agree that heavy dependence on one vendor or a single country for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and bulk drugs can affect the public health system. There could be issues related to quality, among other things.

Take Paracetamol for instance. Thousands of people, especially children, take it every day; it's used for fever and other ailments. One must be wary of the quality of products that come in, and depending on a single vendor for essential drugs may not be good.

Take the circumstances which has led to this dependency. There have been considerable discussions on this matter, but one must understand that in India, there is a cap on pricing for pharmaceutical products. If the manufacturer cannot sell a pharmaceutical product above a certain prescribed rate and has to also (it goes without the need for emphasis) meet quality requirements, it is natural for one to look at procuring APIs at cheaper costs.

At a seminar in Delhi last month, there was a detailed discussion on the matter and some interesting presentations were made. It is important to study how China is able to deliver these products at costs cheaper than those in India and other places.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Singha »

for moving the kind of hollow concrete blocks now used to make apartments, they use a crane on the truck and some pallets of these heavy blocks.

but the red baked bricks used for normal houses esp in tier2 and below places is still carried like lego in a truck and unloaded by hand.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

$6 billion worth of imports just for the material used to make aspirin, paracetamol and other basic drugs ? :eek: :evil: Good grief. They could fund multiple metro systems with that, or for direct perspective, the healthcare budget itself is $5 billion. See 2013 Union Budget basic breakdown . Our import bill for the medicine and active ingredients over that period exceeds the healthcare budget itself.

Just a list of failures by the last administration could fill pages of a news-only no-discussion thread on the topic.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Theo_Fidel »

saip wrote:I take it in India palletization and the fork lifts are not in vogue.
Not so far for most bulk agriculture products. Even rice is bagged and transported manually. I havn't seen any forklift yet. There may be some exceptions here and there... ...I just laugh imagining forklifts at the Vazhakulazm market... :D
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

When Rajan unexpectedly cut rates earlier, I bet that was a primer for him to do a full 50 bps cut across two cuts, first out of turn surprise cut, and second at the regular RBI policy review in Feb. Now WSJ reports betting on the same:
Why India Is Likely To Cut Rate Again Next Week
Analysts are divided as to whether the central bank will cut rate again. Earlier this month, in an unscheduled meeting, the Reserve Bank of India surprised the market by cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points.

Capital Economics‘ Shilan Shah thinks Governor Raghuram Rajan will cut rate again.

The analysts gave three reasons. First, Governor Rajan is a man of action:

Governor Rajan has previously shown that, once he has decided on a policy change, he is willing to act quickly.

After hiking interest rates in his first scheduled policy meeting in September 2013, he immediately followed up by hiking rates at an unscheduled meeting barely a month later. Similarly, Governor Rajan moved fast in cutting the marginal standing facility rate on three occasions in late 2013 after the turmoil in EM currency markets had shown signs of easing.

Second, India’s largest banks have not passed on lower rates to consumers – perhaps Governor Rajan needs to show the last cut was not a one-time event?

None of India’s five major commercial banks (HDFC (HDB), ICICI (IBN), IDBI, State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank) have announced cuts to their lending rates since the RBI lowered policy rates.

Of course, this isn’t particularly surprising, as the policy transmission mechanism often works with several month’s lag. Even so, it is worth noting that, during the tightening cycle in 2011 and in early 2012, commercial banks were quick to respond rate hikes. A further rate cut this time around, as well as clear guidance that further loosening is on the way, may well provide commercial banks enough ground to begin trimming lending rates, which in turn could lead to a pick-up in consumption and investment activity.

Third, the rupee has appreciated by almost 3% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. Late last year, the Reserve Bank of India was already buying dollars, indicating that the central bank thought rupee was overvalued. Lowering interest rate would dilute some of the lure for the Indian currency.
M Joshi
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by M Joshi »

Just taking the activity on this dhaga alone, it took 215 days till 16th May 2014 to complete 15 pages. The next 28 pages took 257 days which is 56% increase in activity. Increase in GDP nos. also is starkly similar.. :mrgreen:
Vipul
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Vipul »

Base year revision to up Indian economy to Rs 111 trillion in FY14.

The revision in base year of India's national accounts will increase the size of the economy to Rs 111.7 trillion in FY14, India Ratings (Ind-Ra) said today.
The size of the Indian economy was at about Rs 93.89 trillion in 2012-13.

A base year change is a regular and methodological issue not limited to India only and almost all countries revise the base year of their national accounts.
"Ind-Ra expects the size of the Indian economy to increase 6 per cent to Rs 111.7 trillion (USD 1.8 trillion) in FY14 from the earlier estimate with the change of base to FY12," the ratings firm said in a release.

It expects India's fiscal deficit to decline to about 4.3 per cent of the GDP (from 4.6 per cent earlier) in FY14. Also, the current account deficit (CAD) is likely to fall to 1.6 per cent of the GDP (from 1.7 per cent) as a result.

"The agency further expects the Indian economy to become a USD 3 trillion by FY 2019-20 with the change in base to FY12. On FY05 base, this would have happened a year later that is in FY21," it said.

With a view to present a more realistic picture of the economy, the government plans to release a new series of national accounts with 2011-12 as base year for computing the economic growth rate.

The National Statistical Commission has recommended changing the base year of National Accounts Statistics every five years.

According to Ind-Ra, the base year should be changed frequently in view of fast-changing economic structure as well as to update or estimate national accounts on the basis of latest available data.However, the agency does not expect the change in base year to result in any significant change in GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) growth rate.

The base year change is in line with the system of national accounts and the internationally agreed standard set of recommendations to compile measures of economic activity in accordance with strict accounting conventions based on economic principles.
member_28397
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by member_28397 »

^^^

I dont understand was not the size of GDP already 1.8 trillion $ in Mar 2014, where is the impact of base year change :-?
Last edited by member_28397 on 29 Jan 2015 00:03, edited 2 times in total.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

For clarity, I'll use only INR. From the provisional estimate for FY2013-14 (April 2013 to March 2014) released on May 30 2014:
GDP 2013-14: Rs.113.55 trillion
GDP 2012-13: Rs.101.13 trillion
GDP 2011-12: Rs.90.09 trillion

However, the above are inflation adjusted (current prices) GDP figures. The unadjusted data (at factor cost) is:
GDP 2013-14: Rs.104.72 trillion
GDP 2012-13: Rs.93.88 trillion
GDP 2011-12: Rs.83.92 trillion

In this context, the error in the article makes sense. It looks like they reported the effect of the base year change at factor cost, but did not translate to current prices, which will enable them to perform an exchange rate calculation meaningfully.

Based on the article, the approximate value of the GDP in 2013-14 (year ending March 2014) would rise from Rs.113.55 trillion to ~Rs.122 trillion, or approx $2 trillion, up from the previous figure of $1.8 trillion. For the current financial year ending March 2015, GDP will probably be in the Rs.135 trillion range, or approx $2.2 trillion.
member_28397
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by member_28397 »

Suraj wrote:For clarity, I'll use only INR. From the provisional estimate for FY2013-14 (April 2013 to March 2014) released on May 30 2014:
GDP 2013-14: Rs.113.55 trillion
GDP 2012-13: Rs.101.13 trillion
GDP 2011-12: Rs.90.09 trillion

However, the above are inflation adjusted (current prices) GDP figures. The unadjusted data (at factor cost) is:
GDP 2013-14: Rs.104.72 trillion
GDP 2012-13: Rs.93.88 trillion
GDP 2011-12: Rs.83.92 trillion

In this context, the error in the article makes sense. It looks like they reported the effect of the base year change at factor cost, but did not translate to current prices, which will enable them to perform an exchange rate calculation meaningfully.

Based on the article, the approximate value of the GDP in 2013-14 (year ending March 2014) would rise from Rs.113.55 trillion to ~Rs.122 trillion, or approx $2 trillion, up from the previous figure of $1.8 trillion. For the current financial year ending March 2015, GDP will probably be in the Rs.135 trillion range, or approx $2.2 trillion.
great that means India's GDP when numbers will come out in 2015 will race ahead of Italy and Russia at No. 8 just a spec behind Brazil's :D
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

EUR has weakened significantly lately, and so has BRL (Brazilian Real). All Eurozone GDPs as well as Brazils when reported in $ will fall. And of course, Russia's will too. INR has remained stable and appreciated 3% so far this year. So yes there may be some changes to that list.
Prem
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Prem »

INR is gaining average half R-up-pya a week against USD. IMHO, it will touch55- 57 per Dollar before slowing down in appreciation.
SaiK
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

time to borrow in $$$ then
ramana
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by ramana »

In our heydays we were singing hosaanas to MMS and his economy first mantra! It turned out to be a rope trick.
SaiK
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

was just a cow hitch.
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