Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

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vina
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by vina »

A lot of folks in Europe, E. Europe and Russia took out loans and mortages on the swiss franc. Exactly like many Indian Businessmen took loans out in Dollars via the External Currency Borrowing since the rates were attractive in CHF and USD.
Many of them are mortally wounded.
Less certain are the implications for lenders including OTP Bank, Hungary's largest lender, Vienna-based Erste Group Bank, and Italy's Unicredit, who lent about $14 billion to Hungarians in foreign-currency mortgages prior to the financial crisis, the bulk of them denominated in Swiss francs. A November law obliges banks to convert those loans into forints, and the Hungarian central bank arranged a foreign-currency transfer at that time to cover those conversion needs. The law obliges banks to switch at about 257 forints per franc; today's whipsaw puts that exchange rate at 310, meaning any bank that left itself exposed is facing a huge loss.

In an accompanying move, the Swiss central bank will now charge banks 0.75 percent for the privilege of depositing money with it. In the bond market, investors in Swiss government bonds are getting negative yields on any securities with maturities of nine years or less; at one point this morning, your reward for lending to Switzerland for a decade dropped to 0.033 percent, or so close to zero that it really makes no difference.
So
1) RBI's Raghuram Rajan and SNB's Thomas Jordan should be commended for trying to do what is best overall for their country
OR
2) Fired for failing to tailor their respective country's interest rates and exchange rates so that the guys who took risky bets are saved
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

disha and vina: your political argument posts have been deleted. Please don't continue.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Wrong thread
Last edited by nawabs on 16 Jan 2015 07:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Public spending to drive infrastructure growth over medium term: Experts

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 241_1.html
“Bulk of infrastructure financing for the medium-term has to come from the public sector,” said Chatterjee. “We have to look at how to increase the corpus of public spending. And by that, I don’t just mean the government. PSUs (public sector units) are sitting on Rs 2 lakh-crore cash pile, and states have their own fiscal capacity for infrastructure projects.”

The panelists agreed with Prabhu’s assessment that banks lent only on a shorter term basis, and new institutions and instruments were required for projects with long gestation periods.

IIFCL's flexible refinancing scheme, popularly known as 5:25 scheme, to existing infrastructure projects would also require to be reframed, said Nayar. The 5:25 structure allows banks to loan to a developer for 25 years, with an option of rewriting terms or transferring loan to another bank or financial institution after five years.

“Infrastructure in our country has been substantially funded by banks. For them, an elephant in the room that no one is talking about is Basel-III norms. Once these norms kick in, banks will have less flexibility to lend to projects,” said Nayar.

These norms treat restructured loans on par with non-performing assets as far as provisioning is concerned. “Nothing prevents us from creating non-banking financial companies for infrastructure outside of Basel-III,” Nayar added. He said the industry is still to get over the financing hump. According to him, there is a lull in new projects; but when they start coming in, there would be a problem.

The government, through chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian’s mid-year economic analysis last month, had made a case for increased public investment to drive economic growth. Since 1999-2000, public spending has risen steadily, while private spending has shown wild fluctuations. It was double of public investment in the boom years. However, after the global financial markets crash, it fell drastically; in 2012-13, was actually outstripped by the former.

It is likely that the government will initiate steps to increase public spending in the upcoming Budget. There is a likelihood of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley increasing the road cess on petrol and diesel to fund the government’s ambitious road construction plan.
Prabhu seeks new ways to fund core sector

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 185_1.html
Financing infrastructure would need bold measures that made instruments more important than institutions, Prabhu added while inaugurating the summit. This could mean opening up funds available with the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) for use in infrastructure, he said. The suggestion found support from SB Nayar, chairman and managing director of India Infrastructure Finance Company, later in the summit when he said two-three per cent of the incremental corpus of the EPFO could be used to meet the needs of the core sector.

Prabhu made a case for tapping into the pension funds of Australia, Canada and other countries and attracting sovereign funds from China and West Asia.

India could follow infrastructure-led growth to turn the investment cycle, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu said at the Business Standard Infrastructure Summit 2015 on Thursday.

“When we create infrastructure it is not for tomorrow, not even for today, but it takes care, partly, of yesterday. That’s why the deficit keeps rising,” Prabhu, among the principal policy formulators for the infrastructure sector in the Narendra Modi government, said.

Elaborating on this theme, Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan pointed out that if the power sector had not been opened up through reforms initiated in 2003, India would still have been in darkness. Had independent power producers not set up projects, public sector undertakings (PSUs) alone might not have been able to shoulder the load, he added.

Financing infrastructure would need bold measures that made instruments more important than institutions, Prabhu added while inaugurating the summit. This could mean opening up funds available with the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) for use in infrastructure, he said.

The suggestion found support from SB Nayar, chairman and managing director of India Infrastructure Finance Company, later in the summit when he said two-three per cent of the incremental corpus of the EPFO could be used to meet the needs of the core sector.

Prabhu made a case for tapping into the pension funds of Australia, Canada and other countries and attracting sovereign funds from China and West Asia. Australia’s gross domestic product, for instance, is less than its $2-trillion pension fund corpus. “China has foreign exchange reserves of $4 trillion, which they are putting into US treasures at one per cent interest rate,” he pointed out.

He also said there was a need for PSUs in the infrastructure sector to free up assets by capitalising them and borrowing money for new projects. Citing NTPC, the country’s biggest power producer, Prabhu said, “Why not make sure that existing assets free from debt are capitalised to make more money? It is all possible. We really need to make sure that we bring a paradigm shift in this.”

The idea did not find favour though with Arup Roy Chowdhury, NTPC chairman and managing director. He said NTPC had provided the government returns worth Rs 40,000 crore, which might be reduced if equity in old projects were divested.

Prabhu, nevertheless, said PSUs could be the engines of growth.

“The Japanese economy is contracting but the private sector is not investing. In India, PSUs have a huge cash flow but are depositing money in banks for five-six per cent interest. Why can't we use PSUs as engines of growth?" the minister wondered. The newly set up NITI Aayog could create a framework for facilitating such investments, he said.

Relying on the public sector alone would not suffice, Prabhu said and added India had enough private sector ability and growth could take off from there. "For the first time, we are developing a model. Let us not get overawed by the challenge." All stakeholders, whether regulators, banking systems, developers, policy makers and state governments, must be aligned, he added.

On the ground, projects faced land acquisition issues. Ravi Uppal, managing director and chief executive officer of Jindal Steel & Power, differed with Roy Choudhury on whether public sector companies had an advantage over private companies in land acquisition.

Pradhan pointed out his home district of Angul in Odisha had given up 25,000 hectares of land for mining and other projects. He said villages in Chhattisgarh might have rejected coal mining in their area, but the Centre's policy of sharing proceeds with state governments could help uplift local people.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Bills to fix minimum wage, higher cap for bonus likely in Budget session

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 792724.ece
Government may bring two bills in budget session seeking to fix a benchmark for minimum wages for all types of employments and make more employees eligible for bonus.

“An inter-ministerial group meeting was held today to finalise amendments to Payment of Wages Act 1948 and Payment of Bonus Act 1965. It is expected that government will firm up amendments to two the Acts by the first week of February,” a source said.

“The government is likely to introduce the two amendment bills in the forthcoming budget session as the consultation process is almost over,” the source added.

Under the wage law, the government wants to fix statutory National Floor Level Minimum Wage for all employments across the States/UTs.

Besides, it is proposed to cover all employments under the Minimum Wages Act.

The bill to amend Payment of Bonus Act will make all employees, who are earning up to Rs. 18,000 a month eligible for bonus of up to Rs. 6,000 a month.

At present, employees drawing salary or wage not exceeding Rs. 10,000 per month are eligible for bonus with a ceiling of Rs. 3,500 per month.

The Act provides that factories and establishments employing 20 or more persons should pay bonus to employees in every accounting year, provided the worker has worked in the firm for at least 30 days.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by a_bharat »

disha wrote:For an aam-mango abdul living in say B'gloru or Mumbai or C'nai or Delhi or Gurgaun with a 20 lakh Rs. loan on the aam-flat - your interest will come down by 50,000 Rs. (this is @5k Rs. saving every month).
25 basis points on 20L is 5K only, or Rs. 400 per month.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Theo_Fidel »

nawabs wrote:http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 792724.ece
Government may bring two bills in budget session seeking to fix a benchmark for minimum wages for all types of employments and make more employees eligible for bonus.
This is not a good idea at this stage of our development. It will turn into yet another reason to harass business owners. The developed world can do it because only small sections are affected. In India, essentially the entire working population will fall under this definition. Esp. at our present very low productivity this not the time to expand the wage bill.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

CNBC TV> Cut in Petrol and Diesel prices today.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Rahul M »

swarajya mag has a number of excellent articles on the economy, IMHO, much better than the NYT crap anyway.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by disha »

a_bharat wrote:
disha wrote:For an aam-mango abdul living in say B'gloru or Mumbai or C'nai or Delhi or Gurgaun with a 20 lakh Rs. loan on the aam-flat - your interest will come down by 50,000 Rs. (this is @5k Rs. saving every month).
25 basis points on 20L is 5K only, or Rs. 400 per month.
Missed by a big zero :((.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by panduranghari »

disha wrote:
And you bring in the hoity-toity NYTimes - so that us GECs can shiver in our dhotis reading this choice quotes (highlights are yours):

!
Disha,
Substitute Rajan for Yellen or Kuroda or Carney, RBI for USFed or BOJ or BOE and the article is still the same old crap. The only difference is NYT is blatantly anti India. So they can spin what ever they want. Funny enough Krugman has mellowed down and some how is becoming more sane, daresay less Keynesian, every passing day.

Pointless critiquing an article which does not analyse. Just he said, she said is not journalism. Reminds me of R Jaggi who is now writing economic essays in FP.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by disha »

Pandurang'ji - There is more "gyan" in this threads than all the gyan put together by NYTimes.

In fact I want to suggest that posting NYTimes articles on Indian economics in this thread should result in a summary warning :D.

I was actually surprised that Vina had to pull out the NYTimes article to support his arguments!!! Since I could not print out and use it as TP (waste of ink and paper) I chose the next best thing, tried to give back. And just in case some other aam-abdul happens to read it, hopefully they see the other side of the story.

Regarding R.Jaggi on Firstpost - he still does a better job than NYTimes and definitely a lot better job than other journos covering Indian economy. Problem in Firstpost is bench strength. Beyond R. Jaggi - there is nobody else at FirstPost who can write a cogent article. Most of the journos are trained in rhetoric. And when it comes to economics, most of them think that being a cub-reporter at dalal street is the pinnacle of their journalism. Journalism in India is in a very very sorry state. BTW, I find better journalists in small/local newspapers.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by panduranghari »

If you want to read good economic analysis on FP, read Vivek Kaul.

With regards to Euro, your analysis COULD be flawed. But then so can be mine. http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p1781035
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Business Standard, Financial Express , Hindu Business Line and Economic Times of India all are decent, in roughly that order of preference for me. Business Standard had some strong alumni writers, including NITI member Bibek Debroy, Subir Gokarn, Surjit Bhalla, Andy Mukherjee (who moved to Bloomberg) and more. Firstpost, rather FirstBiz, is new territory. They seem a bit doctrinaire, and even R Jaggi seems better at writing on the political economy rather than purely economic issues. He's insightful and hardhitting at the former, but the latter is probably too dry for his talents.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by ramana »

disha, From another lurker who is into FE trades that I respect:
not surprised at SNB's policy change. IIRC last sunday there was an article in a major swiss financial daily by one of SNB's advisor/member . So there were hints and when someone from SNB or BoJ talk you better listen so goes old timer's advise . In case of US Fed its always the chairwoman/man who matters . In ECB there are two voices one of ECB president & another of BuBa's president. There seem to be some sort of co-ordination between Central Banks , notice the timing of RBI & SNB .Possibly its a co-ordinated effort to deflate the financial market bubble without hitting the panic button.

Do watch out for the direction 'Central Bank omnipotent & know all ' narrative take in coming days
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

The Swiss action is causing so much turmoil because CHF is a major carry trade medium in multiple trading markets, including the largest one - the forex trading market. The JPY is also a popular choice, but Abenomics probable made the CHF more attractive lately. That is, until the SCB pulled the rug from under their feet. Several forex trading houses have gone bankrupt overnight.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

India considering allowing banks to buy infrastructure bonds - source
The Reserve Bank of India is considering allowing banks to buy infrastructure bonds, in a bid to jumpstart a market that has suffered from low trading volumes after launching last year, said a source with knowledge of the central bank's thinking.

Allowing banks to buy infrastructure bonds would mark a reversal for the central bank, which last year allowed lenders to only issue the debt, while limiting purchases to investors such as pension funds, provident funds, and insurers.

That limitation has backfired, according to bankers, severely crimping trading volumes in the market since lenders are the biggest buyers and traders in debt markets.

Reviving investment in infrastructure is a key priority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi which has been looking to ease regulations and bottlenecks to spur the sluggish economy.

"We are quite flexible on the suggestions of allowing banks to initially develop this market by buying a certain percentage of the (infrastructure) bonds," said a top policymaker.

However, the policymaker cautioned the RBI could impose limits, including on how much of the debt lenders can purchase, or allowing them to hold the bonds for only a short period of time and then requiring them to sell it to long-term investors.

That could soothe the RBI's concerns that risks are being excessively concentrated in debt markets, given banks are often the biggest issuers but also the biggest buyers -- meaning lenders end up purchasing each other's bonds.

Infrastructure bonds were launched by the RBI last year in a bid to help the government fulfill its plan to provide affordable housing to all by 2022, a goal that needs about $2 trillion of investment.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by disha »

Ramana Saar - thanks. Parsing the statement (only zeroes are tumbling around in brain currently).

Meanwhile, must hear PM's speech at ET GBS Summit. Also the first few minutes AJ talks about ardha-kranti and why it was not feasible then and could be plausible in future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=126_TrHv1aQ

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Modi vows further reforms
PM vows reforms 'at top speed'
The economy will witness further reforms, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday, promising such measures at “top speed”.

He indicated a wish to increase the size of the economy to $20 trillion from the current $2 trillion.

The steps could include improving the ease of doing business, a positive regulatory framework, tax stability and a boost to infrastructure.

Ahead of the Budget, the PM reiterated the government’s commitment to the earlier target of a fiscal deficit not more than 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product for 2014-15. The year’s first eight months saw it cumulate to almost 99 per cent of the estimate. At an event here, Modi rapped the previous United Progressive Alliance government for economic growth slowing to below five per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

Asserting development had to result in jobs, he said the government would change rules, reform the tax system and target subsidies to the needy.

“A positive regulatory framework, tax stability and ease of doing business are being pushed ahead at top speed...We are cutting on multiple clearances that choke investment. Our complex tax system is crying for reform, which we have initiated. I believe in speed, I will push through change at a fast pace. You will appreciate this in times to come,” he said.

Maintaining that improvement in governance was a continuous process, Modi said government was making changes wherever rules and procedures were not in tune with the need.

“Reforms are not an end in itself; these must have a concrete objective, to improve the welfare of the people,” he said.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by disha »

What Modi Sarkaar is doing to Fuel Prices
The government on Friday slashed retail prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 2.42 and Rs 2.25 a litre respectively for consumers, even while hiking excise duty by Rs 2 a litre each for the two commodities.

The twin move could well aid the consumer retail inflation slide, increase government revenues, curb the import demand for petrol products and reduce over-recovery of oil marketing companies -- estimated at Rs 5/- a litre. There certainly will be a drop in oil import bills and hence a shrinkage in fiscal deficit.

By not passing on the entire benefit of slide in crude oil prices globally to the consumers, the government has stemmed the tendency to import petro-products beyond requirement. On the otherhand, if the government does not slash retail fuel prices, OMCs stand to take the entire benefit. By hiking excise duty and lowering retail prices, the government has tried to address both -- inflation as well as fiscal deficit concerns.


How do oil marketing companies gain?
According to market estimates, OMCs' over-recovery on account of global fall in crude prices (from $115.07 on June 19 to currently around $49.70 a barrel), after adjusting for the price cuts and duty hikes stands reduced to Rs 4.42 a litre in the case of petrol and Rs 4.25 for diesel. In effect OMCs now stand to make a profit of 0.58 paise a litre on petrol and 0.75 on diesel as the excise cess gets added on to government coffers.

How much does the government gain from fresh duty hike?
The hike in excise duty on Friday will take away roughly Rs 7,000 crore annually from the three government-owned oil maketing companies – HPCL, IOC and BPCL, said market analysts.

How much has duty hikes netted since the govt came to power?
This would mean, since the BJP government assumed office on May 26, 2014, the total revenues from four excise duty hikes have fetched around Rs 25,000 crore to Rs 30,000 crore, in addition to the dividends it could expect from its OMCs.

How many price cuts since the govt came to power?
With the current slash in retail fuel prices, the BJP government has so far cut retail petrol prices 10 times since July 2014 and diesel five times since October 2014.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Prem »

Yindia Yindia, Yiiiindiiia , Sweet Home Yindia
India definitely a country of the future, says Paul Krugman
NEW DELHI: Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman had good news to offer at
the Airtel Economic Times Global Business Summit, both general and particular. India is definitely a country of the future, if not the definitive country of the future. Further, he announced the demise of taper tantrums, the phenomenon of emerging markets being roiled and their currencies plummeting
whenever the US Federal Reserve even thought about raising policy rates, to taper off quantitative ..easing that had seen it create liquidity at an annualised rate of nearly $1 trillion. Krugman said he could not claim to have specialised knowledge of the Indian economy, and confessed to having been deterred from specialising in development economics when he was a graduate student, as development economics actually meant no development in reality". The first global economy, towards the end of the 19th century, with its steam engines, telegraph and hectic commerce ..The first global economy, towards the end of the 19th century, with its steam engines, telegraph and hectic commerce and colonies, saw the rich countries grow faster than poor ones. A snapshot of the second global economy, available in the last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st, shows a
remarkably different picture. Poorer countries grew much faster, led, of course, by China and later, India. The role of globalisation in this process was shown by the steady rise in the share of exports in world GDP over the second half of the last century. The American economist, living up to his liberal reputation, showed another chart, which plotted growth against the distribution of global
income. Those at the bottom percentiles grew faster than those higher up the food chain. Except right at the highest percentile, when again, growth shot up vertically. In other words, globalised growth has been leveling incomes across nations, but the rich ..people of the world have been growing ever more richer.
Krugman made an interesting distinction between a country's ability to grow fast and its ability
to weather adversity. China has shown the ability to grow faster than most nations, but when it comes
to global turbulence, India has shown more resilience than China has been able to. China has too little consumption and too much investment. India has no such problem. "China scares me," he said. India, on the other hand, shows promise. Of course, India has had a problem with inflation, inability to press ahead fast enough on infrastructure or on reforms. But India has shown greater resi ..than China has been able to. China has too little consumption and too much investment. India has no such problem. "China scares me," he said. India, on the other hand, shows promise. Of course, India has had a problem with inflation, inability to press ahead fast enough on infrastructure or on reforms. But India has shown greater resilience than China. The fact that there is such a big deficit of infrastructure here is actually promising, there is so much to build, ..So, while Brazil has been laughing at their self-deprecatory joke, that Brazil is the country of the future and will always remain the country of the future, India does not need to share this joke. India is definitely poised to grow. The government here understands the problems, but this, of course, is not the same thing as solving them. "India has a happy story to tell
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

The entire sidebar on the Swiss Central Bank actions have been moved to the Global economic changes thread. Please continue there.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Vamsee »

Prime Minister’s Inaugural Address at Economic Times Global Business Summit

This is a must read (or watch it was delivered mostly in English). This is the grand vision that Modi will be trying to implement in the coming years. So when I watched it yesterday, I felt that this is damn important.

Glad that jaggi also feels the same ==> Revealed: The full Modi economic vision for Bharat, India, and India Inc
Yesterday (16 January) we got a clear idea of the complete Narendra Modi vision for India. I would like to urge everyone to read his speech at The Economic Times Global Business Summit 2015 for the simple reason that it explains - in an unambiguous way - what the Modi government is doing, what is it trying to do, and what it will continue doing in the days, months and years ahead. Personally, I must admit, I was simply blown away by the near completeness - to the extent anyone human being can ever be complete - of the vision.
In short, it seeks to reunite an estranged Bharat with India – which is what brought Modi to power in Delhi anyway. It seeks to prise the Idea of India away from being the private property of the Lutyens elite and restore it to all Indians. The speech is about reinvigorating India's tryst with destiny. It brings the idea of development down from the lofty towers of academe to something everyone can understand.
Why do we need the state? There are five main components:

The first is public goods such as defence, police, and judiciary.
The second is externalities which hurt others, such as pollution. For this, we need a regulatory system.
The third is market power; where monopolies need controls
The fourth is information gaps; where you need someone to ensure that medicines are genuine and so on.
Last, we need a well designed welfare and subsidy mechanism to ensure that the bottom of society is protected from deprivation. This specially includes education and healthcare.


In the five areas where we need government, we require competent, efficient and non-corrupt arms of government. We in government must constantly ask the question: How much money am I spending, and what outcomes am I getting in return? For this, government agencies have to be improved to become competent. This requires rewriting some laws. Laws are the DNA of government. They must evolve with time.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

xpost from global economic changes thread because of the India references:

The Swiss action, IMHO, reflects their knowledge that EU will apply another round of QE. Here's where things are now - the EU set interest rates negative (-0.1%) last summer. They again lowered that to -0.2% in fall last year. However, it hasn't really had an effect on EU investment. Rather than compelling banks to invest productively by making people pay to deposit money in banks, they just seek safe haven like US treasuries or German or Swiss government bonds. The Swiss central bank tried to curtail it by setting their interest rates even more punitively to -0.25%.

The fact that they did this soon after setting their rates below ECB suggests that they were aware it was not going to work, and to save their own currency and financial system from a speculative attack, they pre-emptively acted and set their rates down to -0.75% and freed the peg against the EUR .

How can India benefit from this ? Drive a HARD deal. Their productive economy is their problem. We're not going to buy their wares. But we can sell them wares for their cash hoard, and let them invest in our industry via Make In India. There's a lot of cash sloshing around begging for a decent return. The mature economies simply do not have the economic activity base to absorb it. India needs to rapidly focus on manufacturing and industrialization to absorb this pile of credit, enriching us not linearly, but with near exponential growth, while giving them a strong rate of return on the cash they invest in building our economy.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by VinodTK »

Tackling black money: Govt may cap cash-in-hand at Rs.10 lakh
The income tax department may cap at Rs. 10 lakh the amount of cash a person can keep at home or carry in transit in a likely budget proposal aimed at checking black money.

The tax authorities also propose to make furnishing of PAN (personal account number) mandatory in case of high-value purchases, which could be fixed at Rs. 1 lakh, sources have told HT.

Strict penalties, being worked out, would be slapped if unaccounted cash in excess of Rs. 10 lakh was recovered, sources said. Tackling black money was part of the BJP’s manifesto for the summer’s Lok Sabha election that saw it being voted to power. The Supreme Court has appointed a special investigating team (SIT) to conduct a thorough probe into black money stashed abroad by Indians.

“The threshold amount has been devised after careful consideration so that carrying on the day-to-day activities of ordinary citizens is not affected, a SIT source said. “This will also curb the movement and transportation of cash from one destination to another.”

Though the focus of the black-money campaign has been illicit funds stashed abroad, activists and experts have often pointed to the growing menace at home.

At present, there is no prescribed limit on the amount of cash an individual can hold in hand. It has led to arbitrariness in asking the individuals about the source of the cash though certain parameters such as the standard of living are taken into account.

“The cash threshold limit seems to be a fair move. While it should work out fine in urban areas, it remains to be seen how the threshold limit works out in rural areas which do not have access to good banking channels,” Jayesh Sanghvi, an expert on tax laws, said.

The proposed change would enable enforcement agencies to act against violators as well as seize unaccounted currency, he said.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), the apex board for direct tax collection, also wants PAN to be mandatory for purchases of Rs.1 lakh and above.

If the buyer doesn’t have a PAN number, any of the documents accepted by the government’s as proof of identity such as Aadhar number would be acceptable. The seller, too, would have to enter PAN number in the invoice, sources said.

These proposals were part of the SIT’s recommendations submitted to the SC in December.
arshyam
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by arshyam »

Newslaundry has some details about the GST proposal, quoting some excerpts:

The Gist of the GST - Aayushi Maheshwari, Newslaundry
GST would result in value addition at every stage of the supply chain, from the production level up to the retail level, but the tax to be paid would only be on the value added and not the total value. For example, if at the first stage, the tax paid on a product worth Rs 20,000 is at 10 percent, then tax payable would be Rs. 2000. If at the next level, the same product is sold at Rs 25,000, technically the tax levied would be Rs. 2500. However, thanks to GST, there is a tax set off of Rs. 2000 available, so the actual tax at that stage would amount to Rs. 500.
So, the Bill has proposed a dual GST model. GST that would be levied by the Centre would be called Central GST (CGST) and GST charged by States would be called State GST (SGST). CGST and SGST would be applicable at rates that would be mutually agreed upon by the Centre and the States. An Integrated GST (IGST) would also be issued on inter-State transactions of goods and services.
A GST council would be created, sixty days after GST comes into effect, to examine issues related to GST and make recommendations to the Centre and States on parameters like rates, exemptions and threshold limits.

This council would comprise of a:
  • Chairman (Union Finance Minister)
  • A member in charge of Revenue or Finance (Union Minister of State)
  • A member in charge of Finance or Taxation or any other Minister nominated by each State government.
It will be subsuming Central indirect taxes such as:
  • Central excise duty
  • Additional excise duties
  • Excise duty levied under the Medicinal and Toilet preparations (Excise duties) Act, 1955
    Service Tax
  • Additional customs duty
  • Special additional duty of customs
  • Central surcharges and cesses
It will also replace indirect taxes levied by State governments, such as:
  • State Value Added Tax/ Sales Tax
  • Entertainment Tax (other than the tax levied by local bodies)
  • Central Sales Tax (levied by the Centre and collected by the State)
  • Octroi and Entry Tax
  • Purchase Tax
  • Luxury Tax
  • Taxes on lottery, betting and gambling
  • State surcharges and cesses
But would GST be applicable on all goods and services?

No. It would be covering all goods and services barring alcoholic liquor, petroleum and petroleum products (Though this situation might change based on the recommendations of the GST council).
Overall, I am happy with the way the NDA govt is constituting these committees: while there will be a secretariat staffed by the bureaucracy, there is emphasis on having the top headed by elected members. Also, federalism is implemented by including states' elected nominees. This is far cry from the bureaucracy driven Planning Commission that made states feel that they have no say over what their priorities were, and having clout in the centre didn't help either, since the centre wasn't directly involved in these bodies.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 954399.cms
Government may take Post Bank of India public after establishing it
NEW DELHI: Government is mulling to take the proposed Post Bank of India public or gradually increase public participation to raise funds after converting the vast post office network into a commercial bank.

In a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month on the findings of the Task Force on India Post, Department of Posts (DoP) conveyed its intentions to enter the banking space targeting rural India, sources said.

The department gave the justification that India Post, at present, undertakes all banking operations, including payments and has longer direct experience of banking operations as well as handling money issues. Only the extension of credit is not a part of its current portfolio, the source added.

A government official said: "DoP said that once the bank is established and banking operations are running, the entity has the potential to go public or public participation can be increased gradually to raise funds."

Investors would be interested in the bank considering its huge access in rural India, an area still out of reach from other private and state-run banks, the official added.

Post office has 1,40,000 rural branches, while all other banks put together have about 35,000 rural banks most of which are not in rural panchayat towns.

According to the department, it has more than 100 years of experience in handling finance and monetary issues, especially in rural areas, the official said.

"Besides, India Post has fully established 1.5 lakh business correspondents (BCs) with branch offices deployment and every post branch and postman has full local knowledge of his area, in short, he is a walking KYC Know Your Customer)," the official added.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Suzlon is an example of a perfect storm affecting a bold Indian company attempting establish itself in a frontline industry independently. To summarize: they grew in the 2000s wind power boom, bought German firm REpower for $1.5 billion in 2009, were unable to keep investing in growth as demand and financing collapsed post crash, defaulted on their foreign currency bonds, and finally got to the point where they decided to divest of the REpower (now Senvion) stake:
Suzlon's Senvion sale to shrink its size by 65%
Suzlon Energy’s reported sale of German subsidiary Senvion to private equity fund Centerbridge will reduce the Pune-based company’s annual sales in India to about Rs 3,000 crore. For FY14, Senvion contributed Rs 13,759 crore, or 65 per cent of the consolidated revenue.

The sale will, however, help the company repay lenders and focus on the Indian market, say analysts. The sale follows a series of debt defaults by Suzlon, which took the company to near-bankruptcy, as demand for its products collapsed and finance costs soared.

In 2009, Suzlon acquired Senvion, earlier known as REpower, for ^1.5 billion. However, it was unable to make money from the acquisition, as complaints of faulty products increased, resulting in lower sales and profits. The company has not recorded profits since 2012-13. In 2012, Suzlon defaulted on its foreign currency bonds. Later, these were restructured, with most lenders taking a haircut.

“With the Senvion sale, the company has managed to get out of a financial mess. What Suzlon will be left with is a big question, as its domestic operations are not a big deal,” said an analyst.

On Tuesday, Suzlon’s shares at Rs 17.64 on the BSE, up 0.9 per cent, as investors waited for an announcement on the sale.

“The Suzlon’s REpower takeover did not go well from the beginning. The company took too many loans and mismanaged the takeover. It was like a small fish trying to eat a very large one. No wonder the company soon started defaulting on loans. The sale of Senvion will be like a fire sale,” said the analyst quoted earlier.
This is where China benefits from state backed companies, where the state eats early losses and funds expansion and technological acquisition.

PMO ordered 60 changes to green clearances, environment ministry delivered on most
The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) ordered 60 amendments to green clearance norms from the Union environment, forests and climate change ministry in September 2014. By the end of January, Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar and his team delivered on most of these. Some that needed more than just tweaking of executive orders are likely to be carried out through legislative amendments that the ministry is working upon.

The Environment Protection Act, 1986, is especially amenable to substantial changes through executive orders. The law provides power to the Centre to completely change norms and procedures through simple notifications and guidelines that can be done by executive fiat.

Even in the United Progressive Alliance regime, the PMO, then headed by Manmohan Singh, had at times asked for changes to the regulations for easing clearances for industry, though not so many as has been asked by the PMO under Narendra Modi. Some of these changes were carried out by the environment ministry, then under various ministers, but at times, the ministers also got back, disagreeing with the PMO and noting some of the changes would not help environmental conservation.

The PMO documents from September and the series of amendments to regulations and norms carried out subsequently show the ministry under this has followed the instructions from the top more closely.

The changes demanded and delivered include doing away with environmental clearance for industries inside Special Economic Zones, ports and National Investment and Manufacturing Zones. It also asked that the ministry's statutory expert appraisal committees (EAC) not be allowed to question the site location of industry once the preliminary terms of reference for studying the environmental impact is finalised.

It asked that an EAC's powers to ask for additional studies from project proponents be stopped once the developers have committed to standard prescriptions. It also asked that the expert committee appraising thermal and hydropower projects not put additional conditions while clearing projects and stick to the ones mandated by the ministry or standard norms.

The PMO instructed that in case industries change their production processes after environmental clearances, they should not be asked to go through the clearances again, as long as they certify that their pollution levels would remain the same. These, the PMO asked, should be verified through 'third party agencies'.

It also said, "The environment ministry may consider the proposal of duly reducing the duration for baseline data monitoring from the present three months (other than monsoon season) to 30 days." Such baseline data is collected and used to prepare a comprehensive environmental impact assessment report, on the basis of which the ministry's expert committee reviews the project. Additionally, the PMO said the mandatory public hearings could be conducted by someone other than the state pollution control board, where the public hearings could not be organised for reasons beyond the control of project developers.

On forest clearance, the PMO ordered 18 changes. One of these said in case forestland has already been diverted for projects, if any additional facilities come up, developers should not be asked to secure fresh forest clearances under the Forest Conservation Act, 1980. It also asked preliminary surveys for projects in wildlife parks and sanctuaries be allowed by state officials and were not to be brought to the Centre for clearance as long as no trees were cut.

The PMO also ordered that while granting forest clearance, the statutory Forest Advisory Committee (FAC), which appraises projects, not put any conditions for state governments and restrict the terms to those the project developer can deliver. It also recommended that "FAC may be advised not to include any condition on project cost-related CSR (corporate social responsibility) expenditure as this is the mandate of other ministry. This may be duly clarified."

On wildlife, the PMO said an inter-ministerial group be formed to prepare a petition to be put before the Supreme Court. The petition is to ask the Court that state wildlife boards and national wildlife boards be allowed to give clearances to projects in national parks and sanctuaries according to the original Wildlife Protection Act provisions and not follow the additional conditions that the apex court has put over years. This has not been done so far.

The PMO also asked the ministry to ensure common studies and processes for all clearances, whether at state or central levels. These are under process. The states have been recently asked not to link their environmental clearances to a project developer's access to a power connection.
krisna
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by krisna »

^^^^
PMO seems to have its fingers in almost every gov't dept. :((
Refreshing change from Sonia Mata gov't where money stops but blame goes elsewhere. :mrgreen:

NaMo is really working hard on multiple fronts. 8)
Prem
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Prem »

Dum Dum Deega Deega , Trade deficit Dheela Dheela, Ya allah Khabar Hai Subanallah
KOLKATA: India may see achhe din on the capital account front with analysts predicting a surplus for the first time in more than seven years as falling crude oil prices and lesser gold imports would ease the pressure on the country's trade balances. This may attract more capital inflows leading to an even appreciation of the rupee when almost all currencies are losing against the US dollar. In its global research report, Nomura expects the current account balance to swing into a surplus of about 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product for the January to March quarter compared with its current account deficit or CAD estimate of 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2014. It expects a balance of payment surplus of above $20 billion in Q1 alone. YES Bank is even more optimistic. "Based on the current trends, we expect India's current account balance to turn positive for the fourth quarter of FY15," the bank's chief economist Shubhada Rao said. AD was 2.1 per cent of GDP in the quarter ended September 30, a fivequarter high, on slow exports growth and rise in imports owing to a rise in demand for gold. India had last seen a current account surplus of $4.2 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2006-07. Rao said that a sharp decline in the oil import bill, along with seasonal improvement in the export performance is likely to shrink India's trade deficit to $23 billion in Q4 FY15 from an expected $41.3 billion in Q3 FY15, translating into a current account surplus of $5.5 billion, i.e., 1.0 per cent of GDP. "We think the swing in Q1 2015 will largely reflect the full pass-through of lower oil prices on the import bill, which we expect will more than offset lower petroleum exports and weaker remittances," Nomura's research analysts Sonal Varma and Aman Mohunta said
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Prasad »

Jayanthi tax on one hand, we also have increased our tiger numbers by a big amount. Hope environmental concerns aren't run over in the name of vikas.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nandakumar »

Jhujar wrote:Dum Dum Deega Deega , Trade deficit Dheela Dheela, Ya allah Khabar Hai Subanallah
KOLKATA: India may see achhe din on the capital account front with analysts predicting a surplus for the first time in more than seven years as falling crude oil prices and lesser gold imports would ease the pressure on the country's trade balances. This may attract more capital inflows leading to an even appreciation of the rupee when almost all currencies are losing against the US dollar. In its global research report, Nomura expects the current account balance to swing into a surplus of about 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product for the January to March quarter compared with its current account deficit or CAD estimate of 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2014. It expects a balance of payment surplus of above $20 billion in Q1 alone. YES Bank is even more optimistic. "Based on the current trends, we expect India's current account balance to turn positive for the fourth quarter of FY15," the bank's chief economist Shubhada Rao said. AD was 2.1 per cent of GDP in the quarter ended September 30, a fivequarter high, on slow exports growth and rise in imports owing to a rise in demand for gold. India had last seen a current account surplus of $4.2 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2006-07. Rao said that a sharp decline in the oil import bill, along with seasonal improvement in the export performance is likely to shrink India's trade deficit to $23 billion in Q4 FY15 from an expected $41.3 billion in Q3 FY15, translating into a current account surplus of $5.5 billion, i.e., 1.0 per cent of GDP. "We think the swing in Q1 2015 will largely reflect the full pass-through of lower oil prices on the import bill, which we expect will more than offset lower petroleum exports and weaker remittances," Nomura's research analysts Sonal Varma and Aman Mohunta said
The first sentence is a shocking example of sloppy reporting. The surplus that Nomura is reporting is on the Current Account! India had always managed a capital account surplus in recent years.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Supratik »

Suzlon did the right thing. They were trying to grow too fast and cutting corners. It will take them sometime to compete globally. The Indian market is going to only grow with Namo emphasis on renewable energy. Good news on CAD. The environment is going to take a hit in the short-term but that is the price for progress which India desperately needs. These laws should be periodically revisited and progressively tightened. The greenpeace types and assorted jholawalas of NAC will meanwhile cry foul. But India right now needs jobs and fast development. When it starts becoming a developed country society would start demanding the environment be taken care off the way they do now in urban Delhi.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

krisna wrote:^^^^
PMO seems to have its fingers in almost every gov't dept. :((
Refreshing change from Sonia Mata gov't where money stops but blame goes elsewhere. :mrgreen:

NaMo is really working hard on multiple fronts. 8)
boss! she had her fingers in every dept too, and the reason for her exit. the difference was in the actions. what you do with the fingers is important than mere having the position to ungli things in the wrong way or evil ways.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by hanumadu »

Suzlon may have faltered, but Tata hit jack pot with its JLR acquisition even though all the western economies went into a recession soon after they bought it. Havell's bought Sylvania and seems to be doing ok. Don't know how Tata's corus buy is doing, probably not too bad. And one of our machine tool manufacturers bought a european manufacturer, one of the best in the world, don't remember the names.

What kind of technology transfer or absorption do the Indian units do when they acquire foreign companies? Do the Indian units have access to the western technology especially do our researchers and scientists get up to date with the research done in the acquired company, train with them and if there is an exchange of staff between the Indian unit and the foreign unit?
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

Corus dragged Tata Steel down .. paid too high a price for an asset at the peak of the cycle.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 967706.cms
WEF 2015: India's power sector set for $250 billion investment, says Piyush Goyal
DAVOS: Confident about foreign and domestic investors participating in a big way in the Indian growth story, Union Minister Piyush Goyal today said the country's power sector is set for $250 billion investment across different segments.

Speaking here on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting, Goyal said his message to foreign investors is that India story is getting stronger and back to its high growth phase.

"There is a lot of excitement among investors here about the ambitious target that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Government of India have set to ensure 24x7 power for all households as also for the industry and the farmers," Goyal told in an interview here.

Investments are expected across diverse areas of the energy sector including in renewables as well as transmission and distribution segments, he added.

"Overall, the power sector is set for an estimated investment of $250 billion," the Power and Coal Minister said.

Giving a break-up of the investments, Goyal said renewables is set for $100 billion, while transmission and distribution segment is to get $50 billion.

Another $60-70 billion will be for power generation including for restarting stalled projects and for new ones while $5-6 billion is set for energy efficiency projects, said Goyal, who also holds the portfolio of new and renewable energy ministry.

Besides, $20-25 billion investments would come for associated infrastructure required in replacement of old and out-dated equipments, among others, the Minister said.

Asked whether the government is confident about getting such massive funds, Goyal said: "Money is the least of our concerns. Money will flow in automatically as people are getting confident in this decisive and honest government."

"Prime Minister Modi is focussed on scale and money will come from investors within India and outside India," Goyal said.

"We will not have any difficulty in realising the target of power to all by 2019," Goyal added.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/econom ... 80046.html
Infra sector needs Rs 30 trln; novel bonds the key: CRISIL
India's infrasructure sector needs Rs 30 lakh crore and banks Rs 5 lakh crore for their capital requirements till 2019, says a CRISIL report. CRISIL believes that India needs out-of-the-box solutions to generate the money so needed for economic growth, hence a vibrant corporate bond market has become an imperative.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Govt likely to begin quarterly job surveys from June-July

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 767_1.html
Labour market data are a key economic indicator that serves as a guide for monetary and fiscal policy. In India these are collected with a considerable time lag, unlike monthly compilation of figures in developed countries. This makes it difficult to assess the impact of a changing macro economic environment.

At present, the most widely used data on employment and unemployment come from the National Sample Survey (NSS). But these are carried out every five years and results usually come with a lag.

The latest such, the 68th round, was carried out for the 2011-12 period. The labour bureau, too, brings annual reports on employment and unemployment but its results do not match up with NSS data. For example, NSS data for 2011-12 showed unemployment in India was 2.7 per cent, lower than the labour bureau estimate of 3.8 per cent that year.

This not only raises a question mark on reliability but, given that both reports come with a lag, highlights the difficulty in understanding the employment situation during periods of macro economic uncertainty. Jawaharlal Nehru University professor, Santosh Mehrotra, says: “When data do not come frequently, you cannot gauge macro policies’ impact on employment.” Other reports from the labour bureau, such as the quarterly report on changes in employment, are limited to select sectors.

For long, the want of reliable and timely data has been the Achilles Heel for India in making . In the absence of data, policymakers rely on proxies and intuition .
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Excellent step from GoI, keeping in line with Modi's emphasis on job creation. You cannot implement effective policies without effective data feedback, and based on the long history of crude GDP data from CSO, our statistics and data collection system is quite broken.

Other very useful statistics are:
* rail and road freight traffic data
* light and heavy commercial vehicle sales

On that track:
Railways riding on high freight earnings on rate hikes, improved traffic
Frequent revisions in freight rates, coupled with a moderate revival in bulk commodities’ transport, have pushed Indian Railways’ (IR) freight earnings by 12.1 per cent to Rs 77,161 crore in the first three quarters of the current financial year over a year before.

The growth last year over the same period was 10 per cent. This year’s rise has come from only a five per cent rise in freight volumes.

Officials said the increased earnings are in line with the railways ministry’s focus on freight, under new minister Suresh Prabhu. “Two-thirds of our revenue comes from freight. So we are focusing on dedicated freight corridors,” Prabhu had told an industry gathering on Monday.

IR’s freight traffic has grown by a little over four per cent annually over recent years, to 1,051 million tonnes in 2013-14. In the current financial year so far, the rise has been five per cent, to 808 mt.

In the month of December 2014, freight earnings grew 13 per cent to Rs 9,775 crore. The bulk of this was attributed to more of coal transport — it accounts for 42 per cent of IR’s total freight earnings. They earned Rs 4,595 crore from coal transport in December, a 24 per cent jump over the Rs 3,694 crore earned from coal in the same month last year.
And regarding coal blocks
Coal block re-allocation begins, 36 mines to be allotted to PSUs from Jan 23
COUNTDOWN TO 30 DAYS

36 mines to be allotted to PSUs – one to steel, the rest to power sector
46 mines to be auctioned — 16 to power sector, rest to iron & steel and cement sectors, and captive power producers
Allotment to conclude by February 23
E-auction to conclude by March 5
340 million tonnes of mines to be reallocated
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